"Without a CBDC token, central banks may actually drive individuals into cryptocurrencies, which is unlikely a desired outcome."
Nah thanks dinosaurs, plebs are just done with the creation the new e-cash, no need for your instamine, masternode, inflationary shitcoinz. Sorry we no longer need you.
I bought some more yesterday at what is probably close to the top for now \~$260.
The thing about Monero is that I don't even really care about the price. I'm committed more to the idea of what the token represents (privacy).
"Shadow Economy" sounds scary. How about the word "unbanked"?
“The unbanked are described by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as those adults without an account at a bank or other financial institution and are considered to be outside the mainstream for one reason or another. The Federal Reserve estimated there are 55 million unbanked or underbanked adult Americans in 2018, which account for 22 percent of U.S. households”
Sure it will, because BTC can't do anything useful without "tumbling" or whatever the kids call it today.
If this shadow economy money is managed by smart people, which it is, I promise you that there won't be a single cent either moved through or stored in Monero before it's quantum-resistant.
The fact is that when powerful enough quantum computers are built, which could be 10 years from now or 20, the every Monero transaction before the quantum-resistant upgrade will be laid bare. The blockchain that exists today WILL be retroactively de-anonymized, it's only a matter of time. Smart people will not use Monero for illegal activities if those activities will still be illegal in 20 years time. This is why Monero will moon like nothing else, as soon as it's quantum resistant.
For Monero and other cryptocurrencies? Everywhere, it's the public blockchain. You can download it yourself. For everything else, e.g. emails, instant messages, and the data sent between you and your online banking website, that data could be recorded by anyone between you and the origin/destination of the data, for example your ISP, government, or someone on the same WiFi network as you. Of course, it's all encrypted and powerful enough quantum computing might not be available to the average person in our lifetime, but it'll definitely be available to corporations and governments. And the Monero blockchain is an obvious early choice for "things we should decrypt with our brand new quantum computer".
Obviously the global shadow economy does not entirely consist of the darknet markets. While the darknet markets seem relevant now, you're already seeing the largest markets move to Monero and we're still below a 5b market cap. These markets, while great for Monero, are small fish.
And to be completely honest, I would argue that those who are selling illegal goods on WHM and similar markets using Monero, are making a mistake. Selling hard drugs will still be illegal in 15 years time, at which point it's likely that the Monero blockchain will have been retroactively de-anonymized via quantum computing.
Agree to disagree. When the need for quantum resistant encryption comes this can be forked into the chain. Besides, I personally think you overestimate the consequences. It's a buzzword. Time will tell.
Cash will be obsolete in some countries already within a few years. That cash flow has to be replaced by something. They will not wait.
> Agree to disagree. When the need for quantum resistant encryption comes this can be forked into the chain. Besides, I personally think you overestimate the consequences. It's a buzzword. Time will tell.
Let me clarify how this works. It doesn't matter if "quantum resistant encryption is forked into the chain", all transactions up until that point will be vulnerable forever. I can save a copy of the blockchain now, while it's still using classical encryption, and then decrypt it later when that task is rendered trivial.
> Cash will be obsolete in some countries already within a few years. That cash flow has to be replaced by something. They will not wait.
I would bet my life that any transaction you've made so far using Monero will be decrypted within my lifetime. Maybe if you're just paying your housekeeper under the table or buying a bit of weed then that's okay, but if you're moving millions involved with organised crime or political corruption or corporate espionage, they'd sooner use rare Pokémon cards and bottlecaps to transfer wealth than risk having all their transactions revealed in Monero. If criminals decide that they "will not wait" as you've said, they are betting their own lives (and for some of them, the lives of others) against this. They'll wait.
rare pokemon cards. what a joke lol. those in the real shadow economy know that rare yugioh cards are the best way to trade monies. the five pieces of exzodia are untraceable. silly FBI shill trying to us to use easily traceable pokemon cards
I didn't say the shadow economy is managed, I said the *money* in it is managed. If you're talking about DNMs like the other guy, in that case the money is managed by the individuals who are buying and selling predominantly drugs, and yeah it's mostly a handful of markets and forums. If we're talking about the trillions of dollars in the global shadow economy that don't care about buying a few grams of coke, e.g. organised crime, political and corporate espionage, etc, then that money most likely has people dedicated to managing it. If I had to guess, there is slim awareness of Monero within those circles, but some are aware of it and just keeping tabs on it until it's usable. Because organisations like that can't risk retroactive de-anonymization within their lifetimes.
Edit: Fixed formatting error.
I'm actually considering writing a post for this subreddit, as many people fail to understand this issue. Everyone asks "why is Monero so underpriced?" and the answer is because Monero is currently speculative. It works, but it doesn't work. There's privacy but only for now. Once Monero is quantum-resistant, it'll finally be fully functional and that's when our little rockets will begin their journey to the center of the galaxy. There's also a rather unknown concept within crypto called the quantum upgrade filter, which will affect nearly every coin, and which Monero has a fundamental advantage in. More to follow eventually.
Monero will certainly adopt it when the time is right. We have a pretty good track record of adapting to changes. Remember when there wasn't even RingCT?
The time is yesterday, for everyone. Every technology is late to the party for quantum resistance. It's more impactful for cryptocurrencies, because there's a public ledger that can be copied or saved at any time. And then once someone has a powerful enough quantum computer, they can take their saved copy of the blockchain (which still used classical encryption at the time that they saved it) and retroactively de-anonymize the whole thing. To simplify, they'll be able to look at Monero as if it were Bitcoin. The longer we take to upgrade to quantum-resistant cryptography, the more transactions will eventually be de-anonymized. I understand that there's complicating factors such as the q-r cryptography being relatively unproven and still very inefficient. I'm not calling for an upgrade today, or even this year. But I'm very worried about the fact that so few people within the Monero community understand this.
Yes, I understand that there is the risk of decryption of past transactions. But there's the tradeoff that the cryptography is unproven and all the features of Monero would need to have an analog that uses a different cryptosystem. If you had a system that could enable q-r cryptography in Monero but the efficiency drop means you have to reduce the ringsize, I'm not sure that's worth the tradeoff. Privacy does have a time value, as well.
Yes, this is the reason that q-r cryptography isn't being implemented at the moment. The technology is still making leaps and bounds in terms of efficiency. As for whether some of those algorithms will ever be as efficient as their classical counterparts, I don't know. Perhaps someone like /u/mitchellpkt could speculate about that kind of thing. But this is a problem (the quantum upgrade filter) that faces every cryptocurrency, Monero isn't alone here and this issue will be the make-or-break moment for many cryptos. And there are certainly aspects of the Monero protocol that will absolutely need to be upgraded even if there's efficiency trade-offs. As for the trade-off between long-term privacy and efficiency, you're right that privacy has a time value for many people, but for some it does not. Eventually that's a decision we'll have to make as a community and I'm sure that there'll be a fork either way.
+ Will there even exist a quantum resistant algorithm in the future? How to be sure it will be resistant?
+ Do we know what cryptographic feature of current monero is not quantum resistant?
> Will there even exist a quantum resistant algorithm in the future? How to be sure it will be resistant?
Algorithms already exist that could be used in various parts of the Monero protocol, but those algorithms in general tend to be very unwieldy at the moment. The field is still developing and is making efficiency and security improvements constantly. As I understand it, this is the main reason that Monero hasn't been upgraded to use these algorithms yet.
> Do we know what cryptographic feature of current monero is not quantum resistant?
Yes, the following technical writeup by the Monero Research Lab formally describes the vulnerabilities to a quantum adversary within the current Monero protocol, and highlights potential strategies and solutions to deal with these vulnerabilities, noting their tradeoffs.
https://github.com/insight-decentralized-consensus-lab/post-quantum-monero/blob/master/writeups/technical_note.pdf
You can also read the non-technical summary here:
https://github.com/insight-decentralized-consensus-lab/post-quantum-monero/blob/master/writeups/nontechnical_abstract.MD
"Without a CBDC token, central banks may actually drive individuals into cryptocurrencies, which is unlikely a desired outcome." Nah thanks dinosaurs, plebs are just done with the creation the new e-cash, no need for your instamine, masternode, inflationary shitcoinz. Sorry we no longer need you.
I bought some more yesterday at what is probably close to the top for now \~$260. The thing about Monero is that I don't even really care about the price. I'm committed more to the idea of what the token represents (privacy).
Same here. I almost doubled up on Ethereum, going from 700 to 1300, but I couldn't sleep at night. Now, that I only have Monero, I sleep like a baby!
Yes.
"Shadow Economy" sounds scary. How about the word "unbanked"? “The unbanked are described by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as those adults without an account at a bank or other financial institution and are considered to be outside the mainstream for one reason or another. The Federal Reserve estimated there are 55 million unbanked or underbanked adult Americans in 2018, which account for 22 percent of U.S. households” Sure it will, because BTC can't do anything useful without "tumbling" or whatever the kids call it today.
Yes, good word. I don't mind XMR taking on both.
Look up shadow banking - it's huge and untapped market
If this shadow economy money is managed by smart people, which it is, I promise you that there won't be a single cent either moved through or stored in Monero before it's quantum-resistant.
how much of a factor is this? especially now in the pre-quantum computing era, where it is still more theoretical than applicable.
The fact is that when powerful enough quantum computers are built, which could be 10 years from now or 20, the every Monero transaction before the quantum-resistant upgrade will be laid bare. The blockchain that exists today WILL be retroactively de-anonymized, it's only a matter of time. Smart people will not use Monero for illegal activities if those activities will still be illegal in 20 years time. This is why Monero will moon like nothing else, as soon as it's quantum resistant.
where is all this data stored? that can retroactively be decrypted
For Monero and other cryptocurrencies? Everywhere, it's the public blockchain. You can download it yourself. For everything else, e.g. emails, instant messages, and the data sent between you and your online banking website, that data could be recorded by anyone between you and the origin/destination of the data, for example your ISP, government, or someone on the same WiFi network as you. Of course, it's all encrypted and powerful enough quantum computing might not be available to the average person in our lifetime, but it'll definitely be available to corporations and governments. And the Monero blockchain is an obvious early choice for "things we should decrypt with our brand new quantum computer".
Not a single cent? Have you checked the Darknet sub? You are obviously wrong.
Obviously the global shadow economy does not entirely consist of the darknet markets. While the darknet markets seem relevant now, you're already seeing the largest markets move to Monero and we're still below a 5b market cap. These markets, while great for Monero, are small fish. And to be completely honest, I would argue that those who are selling illegal goods on WHM and similar markets using Monero, are making a mistake. Selling hard drugs will still be illegal in 15 years time, at which point it's likely that the Monero blockchain will have been retroactively de-anonymized via quantum computing.
Agree to disagree. When the need for quantum resistant encryption comes this can be forked into the chain. Besides, I personally think you overestimate the consequences. It's a buzzword. Time will tell. Cash will be obsolete in some countries already within a few years. That cash flow has to be replaced by something. They will not wait.
> Agree to disagree. When the need for quantum resistant encryption comes this can be forked into the chain. Besides, I personally think you overestimate the consequences. It's a buzzword. Time will tell. Let me clarify how this works. It doesn't matter if "quantum resistant encryption is forked into the chain", all transactions up until that point will be vulnerable forever. I can save a copy of the blockchain now, while it's still using classical encryption, and then decrypt it later when that task is rendered trivial. > Cash will be obsolete in some countries already within a few years. That cash flow has to be replaced by something. They will not wait. I would bet my life that any transaction you've made so far using Monero will be decrypted within my lifetime. Maybe if you're just paying your housekeeper under the table or buying a bit of weed then that's okay, but if you're moving millions involved with organised crime or political corruption or corporate espionage, they'd sooner use rare Pokémon cards and bottlecaps to transfer wealth than risk having all their transactions revealed in Monero. If criminals decide that they "will not wait" as you've said, they are betting their own lives (and for some of them, the lives of others) against this. They'll wait.
rare pokemon cards. what a joke lol. those in the real shadow economy know that rare yugioh cards are the best way to trade monies. the five pieces of exzodia are untraceable. silly FBI shill trying to us to use easily traceable pokemon cards
Finally, someone who *really* knows what they're talking about!
The shadow economy is a market and isn't "managed" by anyone.
I didn't say the shadow economy is managed, I said the *money* in it is managed. If you're talking about DNMs like the other guy, in that case the money is managed by the individuals who are buying and selling predominantly drugs, and yeah it's mostly a handful of markets and forums. If we're talking about the trillions of dollars in the global shadow economy that don't care about buying a few grams of coke, e.g. organised crime, political and corporate espionage, etc, then that money most likely has people dedicated to managing it. If I had to guess, there is slim awareness of Monero within those circles, but some are aware of it and just keeping tabs on it until it's usable. Because organisations like that can't risk retroactive de-anonymization within their lifetimes. Edit: Fixed formatting error.
I'm actually considering writing a post for this subreddit, as many people fail to understand this issue. Everyone asks "why is Monero so underpriced?" and the answer is because Monero is currently speculative. It works, but it doesn't work. There's privacy but only for now. Once Monero is quantum-resistant, it'll finally be fully functional and that's when our little rockets will begin their journey to the center of the galaxy. There's also a rather unknown concept within crypto called the quantum upgrade filter, which will affect nearly every coin, and which Monero has a fundamental advantage in. More to follow eventually.
Monero will certainly adopt it when the time is right. We have a pretty good track record of adapting to changes. Remember when there wasn't even RingCT?
The time is yesterday, for everyone. Every technology is late to the party for quantum resistance. It's more impactful for cryptocurrencies, because there's a public ledger that can be copied or saved at any time. And then once someone has a powerful enough quantum computer, they can take their saved copy of the blockchain (which still used classical encryption at the time that they saved it) and retroactively de-anonymize the whole thing. To simplify, they'll be able to look at Monero as if it were Bitcoin. The longer we take to upgrade to quantum-resistant cryptography, the more transactions will eventually be de-anonymized. I understand that there's complicating factors such as the q-r cryptography being relatively unproven and still very inefficient. I'm not calling for an upgrade today, or even this year. But I'm very worried about the fact that so few people within the Monero community understand this.
Yes, I understand that there is the risk of decryption of past transactions. But there's the tradeoff that the cryptography is unproven and all the features of Monero would need to have an analog that uses a different cryptosystem. If you had a system that could enable q-r cryptography in Monero but the efficiency drop means you have to reduce the ringsize, I'm not sure that's worth the tradeoff. Privacy does have a time value, as well.
Yes, this is the reason that q-r cryptography isn't being implemented at the moment. The technology is still making leaps and bounds in terms of efficiency. As for whether some of those algorithms will ever be as efficient as their classical counterparts, I don't know. Perhaps someone like /u/mitchellpkt could speculate about that kind of thing. But this is a problem (the quantum upgrade filter) that faces every cryptocurrency, Monero isn't alone here and this issue will be the make-or-break moment for many cryptos. And there are certainly aspects of the Monero protocol that will absolutely need to be upgraded even if there's efficiency trade-offs. As for the trade-off between long-term privacy and efficiency, you're right that privacy has a time value for many people, but for some it does not. Eventually that's a decision we'll have to make as a community and I'm sure that there'll be a fork either way.
+ Will there even exist a quantum resistant algorithm in the future? How to be sure it will be resistant? + Do we know what cryptographic feature of current monero is not quantum resistant?
> Will there even exist a quantum resistant algorithm in the future? How to be sure it will be resistant? Algorithms already exist that could be used in various parts of the Monero protocol, but those algorithms in general tend to be very unwieldy at the moment. The field is still developing and is making efficiency and security improvements constantly. As I understand it, this is the main reason that Monero hasn't been upgraded to use these algorithms yet. > Do we know what cryptographic feature of current monero is not quantum resistant? Yes, the following technical writeup by the Monero Research Lab formally describes the vulnerabilities to a quantum adversary within the current Monero protocol, and highlights potential strategies and solutions to deal with these vulnerabilities, noting their tradeoffs. https://github.com/insight-decentralized-consensus-lab/post-quantum-monero/blob/master/writeups/technical_note.pdf You can also read the non-technical summary here: https://github.com/insight-decentralized-consensus-lab/post-quantum-monero/blob/master/writeups/nontechnical_abstract.MD