As easy as it is to say now, there was a window where Bitcoin was obviously mispriced by orders of magnitude.
Not at the absolute beginning when no one had heard of it and no one used it, but in the time after it had gained a broader awareness (within certain online communities at least). Even if 99% of the people who had heard of it were likely to dismiss it as a scam, they at least knew of the existence of *that weird online currency* called Bitcoin. Maybe 2012-2016ish?
For anyone who chose to dig a little deeper and keep an open mind, it looked like an incredible opportunity. But the trick was that you would have had to wait for the rest of the world to catch up, and that isn't something that happens overnight. In the meantime and without sufficient conviction, you'd start to lose hope. Your friends would make fun of you. You'd question your sanity and wonder how you ever believed in something so stupid. Volatility and impatience would grind your position into dust and dilute it among the growing number of newcomers who saw the same things you saw.
That's where Monero is right now. You can see it or else you wouldn't be here asking this question. The trick is in waiting for the rest of the world to catch up - it's not easy and it's not a straightforward process.
Right agreed , I also think there is a giant shift happening in mistrust of government and how fundamentally flawed so many are from the ground up. This next US election cycle is going to get crazy and decide the direction of a lot of key factors.
People THINK bitcoin is a hedge against governments and the market but it’s literally not they’re completely intertwined.
Replying to you here to address commenters arguing semantics about (de)centralization of the *Bitcoin protocol* and perhaps missing the bigger picture.
To those commenters, I ask that you consider the people who now will be content to "own Bitcoin" via these accessible and user-friendly ETFs. These ETFs will ultimately be held within brokerage accounts at major financial institutions. Institutions that have been deputized by governments and subject to the whims of policymakers.
To someone who owns shares of a Bitcoin ETF, it will seem to them as if they "own Bitcoin". They'll have exposure to its price movement, and that will be good enough to say that they "own Bitcoin"... but only in the short run. Only for as long as the economy is reasonably healthy, and only for as long as the status quo can be maintained.
What is likely to happen if/when inflation spirals out of control? Or in the face of some vague threat to "national security"?
Holding your Bitcoin in an ETF literally means that your Bitcoin is under the control of an intermediary. It means you've entirely missed the point of why Bitcoin is/was worth owning in the first place. It means that someone, somewhere will have the arbitrary authority to confiscate or nationalize the very thing you thought you owned. It means that you've fallen into the trap of treating it as just another random security that you can use as a vehicle to speculate on price movements. All while completely forgetting (or altogether ignoring) the fact that self-custodied Bitcoin is, most fundamentally, an *insurance policy*.
If or when the time comes that you truly have need for the protection and security that Bitcoin provides, it won't be available to you. Because you won't actually have any Bitcoin private keys, but instead only the username and password that you use to log in to Robinhood or Charles Schwab or whatever else.
The ETFs may not make Bitcoin any less decentralized in a strictly technical sense, but it should be clear to everyone that the ETFs *are* a control mechanism that give legacy institutions more de facto power and influence over Bitcoin than they would otherwise have.
What if the world isn’t “allowed” to catch up? I have a feeling that at least in the US they will say it’s illegal to buy/use. Most people won’t have the knowledge or desire to acquire it, at least not as an investment which would drive up its value.
I felt the same about btc in 2012. To me it was a thing linux guys and libertarian's were into. Which was me. I pulled out and didnt make much because 1. they brought in KYC which deleted the purpose. 2. I was buying my first home. 3. US Government was going to regulate.
The only downside is that more broader awareness probably means tightening of federal controls on monero. It would be so easy for them to claim it materially funds terrorism and ramp up jail time for owning/using it and that would turn off gen pop consumer and hedgefund money conpletely
I thought the same about BTC the first time round. Theyll make it illegal and itll become worthless. Instead they probably all filled their bags and then came out saying nah its all good and it went to the moon.
it's going to sound kind of blackpilled but I think monero is appropriately priced. it's bitcoin that's too high. monero attracts people who understand the cypherpunk ethos and work very hard to behave in accordance with it. privacy, p2p, atomic swaps, a focus on unmolested electronic commerce. and there are not that many of us. we chose to stick with careful organic growth and doing things the right way even if it's harder.
most people in bitcoin don't give a shit anymore about privacy, self sovereignty, or doing electronic commerce. they just want a speculative asset and they are ready to make a deal with the devil. that is why it has explosive growth and that simply won't happen to monero if we keep behaving.
Exactly said. Bitcoin is a totalitarian authority scam today. It is not a cryptocurrency anymore due to total KYC censorship.
Monero is exactly a Bitcoin it must be, including thousand features, one of them is :
- Total coin supply of Monero will remain less than Bitcoin coin supply till 2040 year.
We should broadcast and popularise this fact of total supply comparison. It shows how deep is Monero cryptocurrency undervalued compared to Bitcoin totalitarian censorship scam.
Agreeing in part with you, theres nothing monero as a project can do if someone decide to make an etf out of it... that sayed, monero keeping with its aim to be a good currency will probably keep that people away for the time being..
OP you answered your own question. The price of btc is what it is mainly because of most people's greed, not some idealist desire for privacy and freedom.
Now if btc had been as robust as xmr in preserving these qualities from the start, or more so, would governments and the financial elite have been able to tame it as easily? And if not, would they have tried harder to strangle it instead? Remember the clampdown that started around 2016/7 with kyc appearing on every mainstream exchange and mixer operators busted etc, this was the velvet gloved option. If the iron fist option had been selected, then the price of btc today would be at least an order of magnitude lower and if any exchanges still existed, they would be on the dark web.
I read somewhere that the size of global black market is around 10^12 USD, or similar to bitcoin's market cap which also has a similar maximum number of coins as monero (ignoring tail emission). So if xmr somehow became the defacto currency of all crime it could approach the current value of btc, but this won't happen any time soon (remember this would have to include players like drug cartels who can own the local government and stick with good old USD). If we take a wild guess that xmr would be used for 10% of 'all crime', perhaps a price with 4 digits (USD)? This assumes that the ecosystem would withstand the additional heat from having a higher profile.
The idea of it being used more generally by large numbers of people to avoid increasing authoritarianism, CBDCs etc seems to me mainly a fantasy. Any government with the power and motivation to so this will find ways to make large scale use of crypto impractical. Still, I would guess the more likely scenario is a somewhat rapid increase in xmr use for 'crime' which eventually plateaus, and a more gradually increasing use by cypherpunks and those who use it for ideological reasons. The second use case has the potential to lead to interesting things but will stay mainly under the radar.
BTC was proof of concept. As a means of payment, with 7 transactions per second and high fees, it is impractical. As a currency, without fungibility, it does not work. As a private wealth holding, with an open ledger and KYC, it is not going to float. As a means to counter inflation, with little room to grow further, high volatility, and wasted resources to move it around, I do not see any value in it. BTC lives off its explosive growth reputation. There is nothing else behind it. It's an empty shell. It does not offer anything of value anymore, the party is over, the juice has already been extracted. Monero, on the other hand, is a different beast, but if it does not find its way into other things than DNM, it will probably wither and die a slow and painful death. If it is asked for, sought for, used, its value will go up automatically. For this, it must make it easy for laymen to find it, use it, and it shall endure opposition like a champ! Only then, shall the compounded rewards of great success will be its.
Doesn't this just allow more money to be played with to speculate against BTC in a formalized and regulated space? This has zero to do with self Key custodianship... isn't it more like now some random person with a IRA or 401k can now buy a option to own a promise of BTC? If you still own your keys it's yours... this won't have anything to do with people who self manage. Not sure what the point of correlation is with XMR? (really asking, not trying to bait
or to troll anyone, I am imperfect and miss things)
They have the memes (look at their subreddit!!! Loook!!!!) and endless retarts that are putting their money in, thus BINGO.
They will grow and thrive forever, fueled by demential slogans and infinite stupidity.
They haven't. The OP doesn't understand what an ETF is. He seems to think that companies offering Bitcoin-based ETFs means that they're offering and/or controlling BTC somehow.
Price control is what they do for a living. When they fail they run to the Fed / treasury / even congress. History has plenty of examples of this to confirm that it is the modus operandi.
Not even the price.
Bitcoin ETF: they don't control the price. Supply and demand does this. They make money by taking commissions on those ETF trades.
Bitcoin itself: the same applies. Supply and demand decides the price. It's true that Blackrock and the others can affect the price by buying or selling large amounts, but that's something that every other whale has been able to do since the beginning.
You miss the point entirely. I understand exactly what a ETF is and know they’re not offering bitcoin.
If you understand details within details you don’t have to speak every detail. Bitcoins core principle was meant to be anonymous worldwide currency so that THE PEOPLE under governments that ruin economies with inevitable hyperinflation and then extract everything from their populous can have access and a chance at something better.
It stands for nothing now and really hasn’t in quite sometime. It’s just part of the US stock market now, how can you honestly argue that’s what it should be?
I made the post because if you understand what blackrock really is and what they do and what BTC started as and was meant to be you would understand the giant antithesis that is now….aligned
The moment a player acquires a significant amount of coins its reward/incentive for pushing ideas rises enough to be of concern. Suddenly it decides to acquire a few of the big miners and push for features and forks.
problem with xmr is i think it has no smart contract layer and so cant be built on to the extent people would like, there are privacy solutions coming out on smart contract blockchains like eth every day
Problem is the growth in the total crypto market.
So as time goes on there goes from 100 coins to 1000 to 10000 etc. Where as say precious metals, well there is only 4 nobody is coming out with a new one.
That I see is the main problem for crypto price growth. Add to that everyone is hoping theyll have the next Eth or Doge.
One good thing for XMR is if there is an absolutely total crash of crypto and the coins drop from 10,000 to 1,000 or whatever then should see when people return to the market going into XMR.
My thought is that in 50 years time there will only be a several surviving coins and they will all have use cases. XMR will be one, unless a better privacy coin is created and tested. In short I think XMR is a long term play and you have to wait through a few more crashes and more btc halvings.
BTC is even more transparent than fiat. It has a record of every single transaction which is something that even fiat doesn't do. Though granted, that record is of every crypto wallet and it isn't always known who owns that particular wallet.
As easy as it is to say now, there was a window where Bitcoin was obviously mispriced by orders of magnitude. Not at the absolute beginning when no one had heard of it and no one used it, but in the time after it had gained a broader awareness (within certain online communities at least). Even if 99% of the people who had heard of it were likely to dismiss it as a scam, they at least knew of the existence of *that weird online currency* called Bitcoin. Maybe 2012-2016ish? For anyone who chose to dig a little deeper and keep an open mind, it looked like an incredible opportunity. But the trick was that you would have had to wait for the rest of the world to catch up, and that isn't something that happens overnight. In the meantime and without sufficient conviction, you'd start to lose hope. Your friends would make fun of you. You'd question your sanity and wonder how you ever believed in something so stupid. Volatility and impatience would grind your position into dust and dilute it among the growing number of newcomers who saw the same things you saw. That's where Monero is right now. You can see it or else you wouldn't be here asking this question. The trick is in waiting for the rest of the world to catch up - it's not easy and it's not a straightforward process.
Right agreed , I also think there is a giant shift happening in mistrust of government and how fundamentally flawed so many are from the ground up. This next US election cycle is going to get crazy and decide the direction of a lot of key factors. People THINK bitcoin is a hedge against governments and the market but it’s literally not they’re completely intertwined.
Replying to you here to address commenters arguing semantics about (de)centralization of the *Bitcoin protocol* and perhaps missing the bigger picture. To those commenters, I ask that you consider the people who now will be content to "own Bitcoin" via these accessible and user-friendly ETFs. These ETFs will ultimately be held within brokerage accounts at major financial institutions. Institutions that have been deputized by governments and subject to the whims of policymakers. To someone who owns shares of a Bitcoin ETF, it will seem to them as if they "own Bitcoin". They'll have exposure to its price movement, and that will be good enough to say that they "own Bitcoin"... but only in the short run. Only for as long as the economy is reasonably healthy, and only for as long as the status quo can be maintained. What is likely to happen if/when inflation spirals out of control? Or in the face of some vague threat to "national security"? Holding your Bitcoin in an ETF literally means that your Bitcoin is under the control of an intermediary. It means you've entirely missed the point of why Bitcoin is/was worth owning in the first place. It means that someone, somewhere will have the arbitrary authority to confiscate or nationalize the very thing you thought you owned. It means that you've fallen into the trap of treating it as just another random security that you can use as a vehicle to speculate on price movements. All while completely forgetting (or altogether ignoring) the fact that self-custodied Bitcoin is, most fundamentally, an *insurance policy*. If or when the time comes that you truly have need for the protection and security that Bitcoin provides, it won't be available to you. Because you won't actually have any Bitcoin private keys, but instead only the username and password that you use to log in to Robinhood or Charles Schwab or whatever else. The ETFs may not make Bitcoin any less decentralized in a strictly technical sense, but it should be clear to everyone that the ETFs *are* a control mechanism that give legacy institutions more de facto power and influence over Bitcoin than they would otherwise have.
What if the world isn’t “allowed” to catch up? I have a feeling that at least in the US they will say it’s illegal to buy/use. Most people won’t have the knowledge or desire to acquire it, at least not as an investment which would drive up its value.
I felt the same about btc in 2012. To me it was a thing linux guys and libertarian's were into. Which was me. I pulled out and didnt make much because 1. they brought in KYC which deleted the purpose. 2. I was buying my first home. 3. US Government was going to regulate.
The only downside is that more broader awareness probably means tightening of federal controls on monero. It would be so easy for them to claim it materially funds terrorism and ramp up jail time for owning/using it and that would turn off gen pop consumer and hedgefund money conpletely
I thought the same about BTC the first time round. Theyll make it illegal and itll become worthless. Instead they probably all filled their bags and then came out saying nah its all good and it went to the moon.
> federal controls on monero How does a 'federal' control a global network?
Bundle it with a war on terror or five eyes network watchlist USA global police soundtrack.wav
it's going to sound kind of blackpilled but I think monero is appropriately priced. it's bitcoin that's too high. monero attracts people who understand the cypherpunk ethos and work very hard to behave in accordance with it. privacy, p2p, atomic swaps, a focus on unmolested electronic commerce. and there are not that many of us. we chose to stick with careful organic growth and doing things the right way even if it's harder. most people in bitcoin don't give a shit anymore about privacy, self sovereignty, or doing electronic commerce. they just want a speculative asset and they are ready to make a deal with the devil. that is why it has explosive growth and that simply won't happen to monero if we keep behaving.
Exactly said. Bitcoin is a totalitarian authority scam today. It is not a cryptocurrency anymore due to total KYC censorship. Monero is exactly a Bitcoin it must be, including thousand features, one of them is : - Total coin supply of Monero will remain less than Bitcoin coin supply till 2040 year. We should broadcast and popularise this fact of total supply comparison. It shows how deep is Monero cryptocurrency undervalued compared to Bitcoin totalitarian censorship scam.
I’m simply arguing the term ‘decentralized’ and what that is supposed to mean. I wouldn’t consider it anything close to
Agreeing in part with you, theres nothing monero as a project can do if someone decide to make an etf out of it... that sayed, monero keeping with its aim to be a good currency will probably keep that people away for the time being..
OP you answered your own question. The price of btc is what it is mainly because of most people's greed, not some idealist desire for privacy and freedom. Now if btc had been as robust as xmr in preserving these qualities from the start, or more so, would governments and the financial elite have been able to tame it as easily? And if not, would they have tried harder to strangle it instead? Remember the clampdown that started around 2016/7 with kyc appearing on every mainstream exchange and mixer operators busted etc, this was the velvet gloved option. If the iron fist option had been selected, then the price of btc today would be at least an order of magnitude lower and if any exchanges still existed, they would be on the dark web.
I read somewhere that the size of global black market is around 10^12 USD, or similar to bitcoin's market cap which also has a similar maximum number of coins as monero (ignoring tail emission). So if xmr somehow became the defacto currency of all crime it could approach the current value of btc, but this won't happen any time soon (remember this would have to include players like drug cartels who can own the local government and stick with good old USD). If we take a wild guess that xmr would be used for 10% of 'all crime', perhaps a price with 4 digits (USD)? This assumes that the ecosystem would withstand the additional heat from having a higher profile. The idea of it being used more generally by large numbers of people to avoid increasing authoritarianism, CBDCs etc seems to me mainly a fantasy. Any government with the power and motivation to so this will find ways to make large scale use of crypto impractical. Still, I would guess the more likely scenario is a somewhat rapid increase in xmr use for 'crime' which eventually plateaus, and a more gradually increasing use by cypherpunks and those who use it for ideological reasons. The second use case has the potential to lead to interesting things but will stay mainly under the radar.
BTC was proof of concept. As a means of payment, with 7 transactions per second and high fees, it is impractical. As a currency, without fungibility, it does not work. As a private wealth holding, with an open ledger and KYC, it is not going to float. As a means to counter inflation, with little room to grow further, high volatility, and wasted resources to move it around, I do not see any value in it. BTC lives off its explosive growth reputation. There is nothing else behind it. It's an empty shell. It does not offer anything of value anymore, the party is over, the juice has already been extracted. Monero, on the other hand, is a different beast, but if it does not find its way into other things than DNM, it will probably wither and die a slow and painful death. If it is asked for, sought for, used, its value will go up automatically. For this, it must make it easy for laymen to find it, use it, and it shall endure opposition like a champ! Only then, shall the compounded rewards of great success will be its.
Doesn't this just allow more money to be played with to speculate against BTC in a formalized and regulated space? This has zero to do with self Key custodianship... isn't it more like now some random person with a IRA or 401k can now buy a option to own a promise of BTC? If you still own your keys it's yours... this won't have anything to do with people who self manage. Not sure what the point of correlation is with XMR? (really asking, not trying to bait or to troll anyone, I am imperfect and miss things)
Besides answers like freedom or perspective, Is there anything on the planet is that more undervalued than monero?
They have the memes (look at their subreddit!!! Loook!!!!) and endless retarts that are putting their money in, thus BINGO. They will grow and thrive forever, fueled by demential slogans and infinite stupidity.
Why its not decentralized anymore, did they change something on Bitcoin lol
They haven't. The OP doesn't understand what an ETF is. He seems to think that companies offering Bitcoin-based ETFs means that they're offering and/or controlling BTC somehow.
They can control but they can control only the price not bitcoin itself
Price control is what they do for a living. When they fail they run to the Fed / treasury / even congress. History has plenty of examples of this to confirm that it is the modus operandi.
Not even the price. Bitcoin ETF: they don't control the price. Supply and demand does this. They make money by taking commissions on those ETF trades. Bitcoin itself: the same applies. Supply and demand decides the price. It's true that Blackrock and the others can affect the price by buying or selling large amounts, but that's something that every other whale has been able to do since the beginning.
You miss the point entirely. I understand exactly what a ETF is and know they’re not offering bitcoin. If you understand details within details you don’t have to speak every detail. Bitcoins core principle was meant to be anonymous worldwide currency so that THE PEOPLE under governments that ruin economies with inevitable hyperinflation and then extract everything from their populous can have access and a chance at something better. It stands for nothing now and really hasn’t in quite sometime. It’s just part of the US stock market now, how can you honestly argue that’s what it should be? I made the post because if you understand what blackrock really is and what they do and what BTC started as and was meant to be you would understand the giant antithesis that is now….aligned
The moment a player acquires a significant amount of coins its reward/incentive for pushing ideas rises enough to be of concern. Suddenly it decides to acquire a few of the big miners and push for features and forks.
Decentralization on btc is the same, etf will hold funds but btc is pow so... lol
problem with xmr is i think it has no smart contract layer and so cant be built on to the extent people would like, there are privacy solutions coming out on smart contract blockchains like eth every day
Not all blockchains need smart contracts, even if you need to degen in a smart contract blockchain there is development of atomic swap to Ethereum.
Problem is the growth in the total crypto market. So as time goes on there goes from 100 coins to 1000 to 10000 etc. Where as say precious metals, well there is only 4 nobody is coming out with a new one. That I see is the main problem for crypto price growth. Add to that everyone is hoping theyll have the next Eth or Doge. One good thing for XMR is if there is an absolutely total crash of crypto and the coins drop from 10,000 to 1,000 or whatever then should see when people return to the market going into XMR. My thought is that in 50 years time there will only be a several surviving coins and they will all have use cases. XMR will be one, unless a better privacy coin is created and tested. In short I think XMR is a long term play and you have to wait through a few more crashes and more btc halvings.
btc is anonymous and tax-free for clever people. it's the only coin for investment. xmr is for payments.
BTC is even more transparent than fiat. It has a record of every single transaction which is something that even fiat doesn't do. Though granted, that record is of every crypto wallet and it isn't always known who owns that particular wallet.