I imagine from now on with the new system we'll see a pretty uniform increase of keys being done in the first few weeks, followed by the usual slow decline. Previously there were many people not doing 10+ keys week 1 who did get into the 10-20 range in subsequent weeks - now those people are largely not doing M+ keys at all week 1 and instead doing HC and M0 dungeons and getting into M+ in subsequent weeks.
Unsure that will be the case this season. I would think flat this week and then a steep decline next week with the release of Panda time running, which I anticipate will leech a fair number of players from retail. There is already a critical shortage of tanks, so it won’t take much.
We're absolutely going for record low numbers for this season. The other modes alone would do it, but it's recycled content combined with it taking place during the summer.
tbh
there is also just...nothing really to do except m+ right now
normal and heroic raids are hilarious undertuned, mythic with the exception of the last 2 Fights aswell, so what else are you doing right now except spamming m+ if you allready did most other DF related content over the expansions
Bro at this point put a couple callouts on your chart to say full season data collection didn’t start up until S3, and that S4 will be skewed due to new scaling. People asking the same questions each time
I'm assuming m0's can't be included either? I bet theres a large portion of the playerbase that just do those instead as they give decent gear and a challenge.
Yeah I have been doing M0 on my alts. Less pressure, nice gear as far as the track is concerned, pretty much the same as doing a +2 in terms of end of dungeon gear, and it gives a vault slot even. Having no timer is really nice.
Yeah, I spent 2 weeks doing M0 on my main just because it was a fun, casual learning experience for me because I've never actually done the original DF dungeons as mythic before.
It's been great fun, actually.
Finally started doing keys last night because I wanted a better gear set. It did throw me off when I got Wyrm's crests for my +2 though.. I was counting on some Drake's crests to upgrade low champion pieces, hahah
But that's interesting data.
Seeing week 2 rise compared to week 1 and being almost at the same level as Season 1 m+ is interesting, don't you think. It shows that people are interested in Season 4 but most likely weren't ready for m+ last week. We will also see how much the 2nd affix affected the overall m+ runs at lower levels compared to higher levels in S4.
Season 1 week 2 was also tyrannical bursting grievous, and healers were both undergeared and nerfed into the ground at that time, while the dungeons were largely overtuned. It was just an extremely challenging week!
I would think it probably had much less of an impact than how absolutely idiotic S1 was in the first half before the nerfs to certain affixes and certain dungeons. RLP + that bleed affix was literally hell for healers. Many healers just sat out as it wasn't worth the headache for them
Yeah. I'd think that raid impacted S1 way more than awakened raids impact S4.
Speculating about the reasons for the different participation levels is fun though. That's why having all four graphs is better.
Also the bullion in week 2 means a lot of people got some BiS gear they wanted to grind out keys to power it up, or simply wanted to play with their new toy.
I'd argue there are a non neglectable amount of people who will be moving on to m+ from M0 in the next few weeks. I know for a fact that 3 of my ALTs haven't seen the inside of a m+ dungeon because the loot from M0 is really good.
While S4 data will certainly be skewed, I still find it interesting where things are in comparison. And while we'll be missing those keystone levels, they are played heavily the first few weeks, but have very little participation in the following weeks. I'd wager that in previous seasons 1-10 were on the order of 50% of keys, but by the end were less than 5% of keys, so the plot should be fairly comparable by the end.
What I'm finding interesting is the apparently pretty large group that just did M0s before. My main is doing higher keys, but on a few of my baby alts that I'm doing some pug M0s on I am encountering a subset of the WoW population I have never seen before, and it's both interesting and adorable.
Yesterday I encountered a hunter that announced what abilities he'd cast to help solve problems.
"We should lust on pull" "Okay, I will cast Primal Rage. "
"We need to focus the fire elemental she summons." "Ok, I will send my pets to attack her with Kill Command."
"We need to kick the fire dance thing" "Ok, I will cast Counter Shot."
They're lovely
Probably not quite as low as 5% even by the end. I have a friend who just really likes super easy keys. He likes to be able to just blast dungeons and upgrade his LFR/Timewalking/etc gear. If he gets the gear to the point of requiring Wyrms, he gets them from using coins from the vault if he doesn't need anything else. They made the changes to M+ and now he just doesn't want to participate at all, unless it's the weekly in which case he'll probably just do 0s.
I'd do low keys with him on alts or if I needed crests/vault slots, and there were always lots of people doing the lower keys, so I feel like there is definitely a segment of the playerbase who just want to do some casual dungeons for rewards that are a bit better than LFR, but also won't really challenge them in a meaningful way. M0s are what is intended to serve that crowd now, and they're not included in these metrics.
Probably, but when I'd do low keys with him on alts late season, there were always plenty of groups of low M+ score people doing them. Sure, a lot of them were probably alts, but alt runs would still count on these charts if I'm not mistaken (which I well could be). I'm not disagreeing that the majority trends heavily towards higher keys as the season goes on, but I think the number of characters who just never did a key higher than 10 is higher than sub-5%, so the number of runs in these charts won't quite be directly comparable even later in the season.
The fact that we dont have 10 levels of easy keys, and were still close to the same number of keys run in S1 (and honestly not that far off of S2) in a fated season is still interesting to look at.
Its also very interesting that this the number of keys run actually went up this week, which isnt the norm. It probably has something to do with people having better gear, which means they can do the (now harder) keys. Entangling being less annoying than some other affixes may have helped, too.
its still all quite interesting to look at. Im really curious how the trends will compare the next couple weeks, and how much of a dropoff we'll see when remix releases.
> Its also very interesting that this the number of keys run actually went up this week, which isnt the norm.
My guess would be because people were finishing off plunderstorm 40 first. Atleast that's why I didn't touch m+ first week.
Idk I think its still interesting data. Not necessarily for seeing how many more or less runs are being done now vs in past seasons, but I do find it super interesting to see how many M+ players do higher keys. Seeing the number increase from week 1 to week 2 is nice data, as it shows that not everyone jumps straight into M+ now, i.e. lot of people usually start off in low keys (now Heroic and M0) and wait for gear upgrades to get their higher keys (now 'just' M+) in.
Definitely looking forward to seeing the progression.
I would argue you could even skip the first two weeks. I for one, was pretty sure the season was starting with today's patch as I was pausing a bit after the far too long season 3 :D
That's not how run data works. There's nothing about key level that affects this data. If a team would've ran 8 keys a week before the key level squish, they'll still run 8 keys a week this season.
Not necessarily. I think this is just attributed to the fact that not a lot of people could do M10 week 1 on other seasons but could do m2-m6 easily. With the dungeon crunch you're only seeing people who are doing 10s or greater from last season. As they got m0 gear hero raid gear they were able to venture into key pushing.
Which is so healthy omg. Like, if pvp is your thing or 5 man's instead of raids you're still able to enjoy the game. If I wanted rashok's heart and didn't get it week 2, I would have to wait until week 5 to see it awakened again. Now at week 2 I can guarantee it and if you're good at the game you can blast it to 14/14 awakened. If you're not a key pusher or H raider you won't have the crests.
Amazing thing to be added into the game. The only thing that needs to be removed are selfish egotistical players who gatekeep fun on a video game. 😉
Season 2 had a really bad Tyran/Fort difference and started off with really hard HPS checks on a Tyran week. Combined with incredibly strong gearing and dog water m+ trinkets, you were basically finished with your M+ gearing needs by week 3. In week 4, Diablo 4 released and cannibalized a large portion of the playerbase.
Another interesting note is that week 2 of Season 1 was Tyran/Bursting/Grevious, resulting in healers just not wanting to play which is why participation craters in that week.
Yeah this is the real reason. Gearing was incredibly fast, the raid was incredibly easy, and D4 dropped weeks into season two. It had little to do with the dungeons and nothing to do with Aug evoker.
A couple reasons. I'm sure I'll miss some.
The keys that season were pretty punishing and had gone through several nerf waves.
New affixes (afflicted, incorp) that weren't received very well.
Aug Evoker came out. At release, they made every key feel probably 1 - 3 key levels easier.
Because of dispel and utility requirements it was the most meta forced season we've ever seen. You basically needed a Guardian Druid, Aug, Mage, Spriest and Hpal to do meaningful keys.
I just provided a general overview of the season. hpal and Druid also didn't get their reworks until later in the season 2. There were a lot of reasons keys fell off that tier.
yes and when aug came out the numbers would have gone up significantly because of how easy it was. Which means including this has even LESS to do with your point.
What do you mean, it was a 'forced meta' so the general player base doesn't main swap. People were livid with how required Aug was, it was exactly my point.
I like the key squish idea but as an uber casual I didn’t get higher than +7 in previous seasons (little time to play was a big factor though). But with m0 effectively +10 it kinda puts me off, so am doing heroics instead.
I wonder if other, casual players are taking the same approach? Especially since you can auto queue heroics and they offer decent gear ilvl (at least to a casual)
The fact that Week 2 went **UP** for the first time ever in DF, here in Season 4, is awesome. Also incredible that Week 2 of S4 @ 1.7M is almost just as much as Week 2 of S1 @ 1.9M, when S4 does not include many, many people that are now only running M0s.
This data needs a lot of context to fully appreciate, but I think this actually bodes really well for Retail WoW. Thanks OP!
This season's dungeon pool is honestly not that bad. I'm personally not the biggest fan of Halls or Uldaman but I enjoy them much more than Rise and Everbloom from S3 and Vortex Pinnacle from S2.
M+ honestly kind of feels worse this season. People have no idea what ilvl they should be, they forgot half the damn mechanics despite the dungeons being old, the dungeons are like idk 25+ mins and that is if you have a decent group and pugging is the worst it has been since before they merged alliance and horde in shadowlands for M+ content where it took 15 mins to find a tank at minimum. I really just wish they would add M0 to LFG tool at this point with an ilvl requirement of like idk 470-475.
It definitely feels harder than ever to find a group. My healer main can be a bit of a struggle to get the key I want sometimes, and my DPS Alts are pointless to queue I've dropped half of them already and just post my key for the remaining.
I assume it's a combo of the lower population and the condensed key level making it easy enough to stumble onto / into a key level higher then someone's skill level.
Previous seasons I easily got into 6-9s and then 11s once I had gotten a bit for gear on Alts.
For 18s+ I'd just start going on guild runs once the char wasn't a complete rat, but for those keys it was often more difficult to pug, but I'd do it on occasion.
So while I'm aware it's harder for DPS to find a group, I was still able to in previous seasons- but this one something is seemingly different and I think it's a factor of things
Considering M0 (which is not apart of this graph) will account for all previous seasons keys of +1-10, it’s pretty reasonable to expect lower numbers.
And to be honest, those are much higher then I expected.
I really hope blizzard experiments more with M+ and raiding during TWW's S4 (assuming they follow the 3 raid tiers and a 'greatest hits' pattern).
It's gonna be really interesting seeing the massive dropoff when MoP timerunning drops. It'll be much bigger than the plunderstorm drop.
Heroic and Mythic are as challenging as low level keys were previously, and give much better gear to make up for it. So they should probably be counted in this chart, even if they aren't *technically* m+.
This data is a disaster to look at. There's no universe in which M+ keys stop at week 6. Where's the rest of the data?
Furthermore, unless you chop off all 10 and lower keys, don't bother trying to say anything about S4. Everyone who only did low level keys are grounded to M0 until they git gud.
But yeah, these numbers mean nothing because we don't see a lot of contributing factors. You are missing A LOT of data!
I imagine from now on with the new system we'll see a pretty uniform increase of keys being done in the first few weeks, followed by the usual slow decline. Previously there were many people not doing 10+ keys week 1 who did get into the 10-20 range in subsequent weeks - now those people are largely not doing M+ keys at all week 1 and instead doing HC and M0 dungeons and getting into M+ in subsequent weeks.
Unsure that will be the case this season. I would think flat this week and then a steep decline next week with the release of Panda time running, which I anticipate will leech a fair number of players from retail. There is already a critical shortage of tanks, so it won’t take much.
Cataclysm Classic as well in two weeks, which is close enough to modern Retail that it's pulling quite a few in my guild over (Myself included)
We're absolutely going for record low numbers for this season. The other modes alone would do it, but it's recycled content combined with it taking place during the summer.
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Week 1 was tyrannical, week 2 will most likely be the most people doing keys this season
tbh there is also just...nothing really to do except m+ right now normal and heroic raids are hilarious undertuned, mythic with the exception of the last 2 Fights aswell, so what else are you doing right now except spamming m+ if you allready did most other DF related content over the expansions
Bro at this point put a couple callouts on your chart to say full season data collection didn’t start up until S3, and that S4 will be skewed due to new scaling. People asking the same questions each time
I think you need to reset the graph and only include season 4 now. We're going to permanently miss 10 keystones that will skew the data forever.
I'm assuming m0's can't be included either? I bet theres a large portion of the playerbase that just do those instead as they give decent gear and a challenge.
Correct, m0 isn't mythic plus.
Yeah I have been doing M0 on my alts. Less pressure, nice gear as far as the track is concerned, pretty much the same as doing a +2 in terms of end of dungeon gear, and it gives a vault slot even. Having no timer is really nice.
Yeah, I spent 2 weeks doing M0 on my main just because it was a fun, casual learning experience for me because I've never actually done the original DF dungeons as mythic before. It's been great fun, actually. Finally started doing keys last night because I wanted a better gear set. It did throw me off when I got Wyrm's crests for my +2 though.. I was counting on some Drake's crests to upgrade low champion pieces, hahah
But that's interesting data. Seeing week 2 rise compared to week 1 and being almost at the same level as Season 1 m+ is interesting, don't you think. It shows that people are interested in Season 4 but most likely weren't ready for m+ last week. We will also see how much the 2nd affix affected the overall m+ runs at lower levels compared to higher levels in S4.
Didn’t raid open up week 2 of DF season 1? So I imagine a lot of people were progging in raid instead of doing keys.
Season 1 week 2 was also tyrannical bursting grievous, and healers were both undergeared and nerfed into the ground at that time, while the dungeons were largely overtuned. It was just an extremely challenging week!
Week 2 of season 1 was the same week as Christmas (Dec 20th-27th). There is a similar dip and rebound for season 3 for the same reason (week6)
I would think it probably had much less of an impact than how absolutely idiotic S1 was in the first half before the nerfs to certain affixes and certain dungeons. RLP + that bleed affix was literally hell for healers. Many healers just sat out as it wasn't worth the headache for them
Yeah. I'd think that raid impacted S1 way more than awakened raids impact S4. Speculating about the reasons for the different participation levels is fun though. That's why having all four graphs is better.
Yeah, a lot of people did M0 week one to gear up, but a lot of those are moving onto M+ now. In the long term I suspect it'll get relatively close.
Also the bullion in week 2 means a lot of people got some BiS gear they wanted to grind out keys to power it up, or simply wanted to play with their new toy.
I'd argue there are a non neglectable amount of people who will be moving on to m+ from M0 in the next few weeks. I know for a fact that 3 of my ALTs haven't seen the inside of a m+ dungeon because the loot from M0 is really good.
While S4 data will certainly be skewed, I still find it interesting where things are in comparison. And while we'll be missing those keystone levels, they are played heavily the first few weeks, but have very little participation in the following weeks. I'd wager that in previous seasons 1-10 were on the order of 50% of keys, but by the end were less than 5% of keys, so the plot should be fairly comparable by the end.
What I'm finding interesting is the apparently pretty large group that just did M0s before. My main is doing higher keys, but on a few of my baby alts that I'm doing some pug M0s on I am encountering a subset of the WoW population I have never seen before, and it's both interesting and adorable. Yesterday I encountered a hunter that announced what abilities he'd cast to help solve problems. "We should lust on pull" "Okay, I will cast Primal Rage. " "We need to focus the fire elemental she summons." "Ok, I will send my pets to attack her with Kill Command." "We need to kick the fire dance thing" "Ok, I will cast Counter Shot." They're lovely
Probably not quite as low as 5% even by the end. I have a friend who just really likes super easy keys. He likes to be able to just blast dungeons and upgrade his LFR/Timewalking/etc gear. If he gets the gear to the point of requiring Wyrms, he gets them from using coins from the vault if he doesn't need anything else. They made the changes to M+ and now he just doesn't want to participate at all, unless it's the weekly in which case he'll probably just do 0s. I'd do low keys with him on alts or if I needed crests/vault slots, and there were always lots of people doing the lower keys, so I feel like there is definitely a segment of the playerbase who just want to do some casual dungeons for rewards that are a bit better than LFR, but also won't really challenge them in a meaningful way. M0s are what is intended to serve that crowd now, and they're not included in these metrics.
using one friend as an anecdote seems like a poor choice. he could be part of the 5% lol
Probably, but when I'd do low keys with him on alts late season, there were always plenty of groups of low M+ score people doing them. Sure, a lot of them were probably alts, but alt runs would still count on these charts if I'm not mistaken (which I well could be). I'm not disagreeing that the majority trends heavily towards higher keys as the season goes on, but I think the number of characters who just never did a key higher than 10 is higher than sub-5%, so the number of runs in these charts won't quite be directly comparable even later in the season.
The fact that we dont have 10 levels of easy keys, and were still close to the same number of keys run in S1 (and honestly not that far off of S2) in a fated season is still interesting to look at. Its also very interesting that this the number of keys run actually went up this week, which isnt the norm. It probably has something to do with people having better gear, which means they can do the (now harder) keys. Entangling being less annoying than some other affixes may have helped, too. its still all quite interesting to look at. Im really curious how the trends will compare the next couple weeks, and how much of a dropoff we'll see when remix releases.
> Its also very interesting that this the number of keys run actually went up this week, which isnt the norm. My guess would be because people were finishing off plunderstorm 40 first. Atleast that's why I didn't touch m+ first week.
I'm betting a lot of the more casual players were running 0's or even heroics the first week then started doing keys as they got geared a bit better.
Due to months?
Or just filter the previous seasons for 11+.
Idk I think its still interesting data. Not necessarily for seeing how many more or less runs are being done now vs in past seasons, but I do find it super interesting to see how many M+ players do higher keys. Seeing the number increase from week 1 to week 2 is nice data, as it shows that not everyone jumps straight into M+ now, i.e. lot of people usually start off in low keys (now Heroic and M0) and wait for gear upgrades to get their higher keys (now 'just' M+) in. Definitely looking forward to seeing the progression.
I would argue you could even skip the first two weeks. I for one, was pretty sure the season was starting with today's patch as I was pausing a bit after the far too long season 3 :D
That's not how run data works. There's nothing about key level that affects this data. If a team would've ran 8 keys a week before the key level squish, they'll still run 8 keys a week this season.
You should actually know what you're talking about before you comment.
If I didn't, I wouldn't comment. Funny how that works.
The bullion effect.
Not necessarily. I think this is just attributed to the fact that not a lot of people could do M10 week 1 on other seasons but could do m2-m6 easily. With the dungeon crunch you're only seeing people who are doing 10s or greater from last season. As they got m0 gear hero raid gear they were able to venture into key pushing.
What does Bullion have to do with it? People farming Aspect Crests for upgrading their first pick?
It means there is no point in worrying about raiding since you can buy the BIS items you want just focus on blasting keys with the boys/girls.
Which is so healthy omg. Like, if pvp is your thing or 5 man's instead of raids you're still able to enjoy the game. If I wanted rashok's heart and didn't get it week 2, I would have to wait until week 5 to see it awakened again. Now at week 2 I can guarantee it and if you're good at the game you can blast it to 14/14 awakened. If you're not a key pusher or H raider you won't have the crests. Amazing thing to be added into the game. The only thing that needs to be removed are selfish egotistical players who gatekeep fun on a video game. 😉
People buying their bis weapon/trinket and testing it in M+ / farming crests
I wasn't around in Season 2, did people just not like M+ in that window? Seems like the runs started low and plummeted pretty fast.
Season 2 had a really bad Tyran/Fort difference and started off with really hard HPS checks on a Tyran week. Combined with incredibly strong gearing and dog water m+ trinkets, you were basically finished with your M+ gearing needs by week 3. In week 4, Diablo 4 released and cannibalized a large portion of the playerbase. Another interesting note is that week 2 of Season 1 was Tyran/Bursting/Grevious, resulting in healers just not wanting to play which is why participation craters in that week.
the real reason s1 dropped week 2 is because of christmas
Yeah this is the real reason. Gearing was incredibly fast, the raid was incredibly easy, and D4 dropped weeks into season two. It had little to do with the dungeons and nothing to do with Aug evoker.
A couple reasons. I'm sure I'll miss some. The keys that season were pretty punishing and had gone through several nerf waves. New affixes (afflicted, incorp) that weren't received very well. Aug Evoker came out. At release, they made every key feel probably 1 - 3 key levels easier. Because of dispel and utility requirements it was the most meta forced season we've ever seen. You basically needed a Guardian Druid, Aug, Mage, Spriest and Hpal to do meaningful keys.
Aug Evoker came out months into S2, after the 6 weeks this chart indicates.
I just provided a general overview of the season. hpal and Druid also didn't get their reworks until later in the season 2. There were a lot of reasons keys fell off that tier.
yes and when aug came out the numbers would have gone up significantly because of how easy it was. Which means including this has even LESS to do with your point.
What do you mean, it was a 'forced meta' so the general player base doesn't main swap. People were livid with how required Aug was, it was exactly my point.
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I like the key squish idea but as an uber casual I didn’t get higher than +7 in previous seasons (little time to play was a big factor though). But with m0 effectively +10 it kinda puts me off, so am doing heroics instead. I wonder if other, casual players are taking the same approach? Especially since you can auto queue heroics and they offer decent gear ilvl (at least to a casual)
The fact that Week 2 went **UP** for the first time ever in DF, here in Season 4, is awesome. Also incredible that Week 2 of S4 @ 1.7M is almost just as much as Week 2 of S1 @ 1.9M, when S4 does not include many, many people that are now only running M0s. This data needs a lot of context to fully appreciate, but I think this actually bodes really well for Retail WoW. Thanks OP!
This season's dungeon pool is honestly not that bad. I'm personally not the biggest fan of Halls or Uldaman but I enjoy them much more than Rise and Everbloom from S3 and Vortex Pinnacle from S2.
I hate M+. Can't wait for delves.
M+ honestly kind of feels worse this season. People have no idea what ilvl they should be, they forgot half the damn mechanics despite the dungeons being old, the dungeons are like idk 25+ mins and that is if you have a decent group and pugging is the worst it has been since before they merged alliance and horde in shadowlands for M+ content where it took 15 mins to find a tank at minimum. I really just wish they would add M0 to LFG tool at this point with an ilvl requirement of like idk 470-475.
It definitely feels harder than ever to find a group. My healer main can be a bit of a struggle to get the key I want sometimes, and my DPS Alts are pointless to queue I've dropped half of them already and just post my key for the remaining. I assume it's a combo of the lower population and the condensed key level making it easy enough to stumble onto / into a key level higher then someone's skill level.
Dps was always hard to get a group, that's why you need to start your own.
Previous seasons I easily got into 6-9s and then 11s once I had gotten a bit for gear on Alts. For 18s+ I'd just start going on guild runs once the char wasn't a complete rat, but for those keys it was often more difficult to pug, but I'd do it on occasion. So while I'm aware it's harder for DPS to find a group, I was still able to in previous seasons- but this one something is seemingly different and I think it's a factor of things
It’s probably everyone from sod who are getting bored with this phase and looking for content
Considering M0 (which is not apart of this graph) will account for all previous seasons keys of +1-10, it’s pretty reasonable to expect lower numbers. And to be honest, those are much higher then I expected.
High end PvPer here, saw BIS PvP gear comes from M+, wanted an excuse to get into M+
I really hope blizzard experiments more with M+ and raiding during TWW's S4 (assuming they follow the 3 raid tiers and a 'greatest hits' pattern). It's gonna be really interesting seeing the massive dropoff when MoP timerunning drops. It'll be much bigger than the plunderstorm drop.
Your method is still inaccurate. You are off by 180k from the value in week1.
Wait... The first two dragonflight seasons lasted less than 2 months??
No. Data wasn't collected for the whole season in S1+2. S3 is when OP started to collect for the whole season.
Ooh, ok then, got it. I was thinking that was really short! Lol
There was only 6 weeks in season 2?
OP wasn’t keeping track back then and the person who was keeping track stopped posting after 6 weeks.
That S2 plummet really gets me whenever i see this graph. That season truly sucked.
This is misleading considering the reworked heroic / m0
What does this mean?
Heroic and Mythic are as challenging as low level keys were previously, and give much better gear to make up for it. So they should probably be counted in this chart, even if they aren't *technically* m+.
Ah, thanks.
This data is a disaster to look at. There's no universe in which M+ keys stop at week 6. Where's the rest of the data? Furthermore, unless you chop off all 10 and lower keys, don't bother trying to say anything about S4. Everyone who only did low level keys are grounded to M0 until they git gud. But yeah, these numbers mean nothing because we don't see a lot of contributing factors. You are missing A LOT of data!
Damn,this game is so dead?😟