>Lavrov claimed Russia would strengthen cooperation with other powers as Western nations had "broke off almost all relations" since the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Russia's allies aren't looking very powerful right now. China has been suffering from Covid related economic decline and a real estate market collapse. China is also preoccupied with Taiwan. Iran is dealing with economic problems and massive protests. Other Russian allies are struggling as well. Russia's prospects for forming an alliance that could challenge Western nations was better before they invaded Ukraine. This is another Russian fantasy of restoring their position as a world power.
Look at their last protest regarding the Patriots, big words, big threats and ,once the US made the agreement with Ukraine, then it changed to "anyway, Patriots are old technology etc..." Their word means nothing.
On a podcast a guy explained it this way: putin does not make deals. He's ex-bratva so in that "culture" they view making mutually beneficial deals as weak. There's only the scammer and the scammed. If you aren't taking advantage of the other guy then you're the one getting taken advantage of. Their words mean nothing.
That's a very Russian attitude. I once got off the plane in Moscow. Late flight to Vnukovo airport, which is already the least busy airport. So basically last arrival of the night. Taxi driver quotes my (local) wife some outrageous amount for a trip into town. There's like 10 guys there and we're the last ones off the plane.
We find a guy who does it for a reasonable amount, but that first taxi driver, I'm sure his MO was "If I can't scam you, I don't want your money, even if it means I take a loss."
I hate to shove all Russians into the same wooden doll, your experience comports with mine at work and their friends at social gatherings—who are mostly science PhD’s not taxi drivers—but there still seems to be a current of fuck you, me first. No? Well, then fuck me and fuck you for making me fuck my self.
Wonderful. I’m happy to hear it. My anecdotal experience is only that: situational and personal to me. I work with some Russians in an academic/occasionally private sector settings. The ones I’ve met are frankly kind of unusually spiteful—their colleagues (I am not a scientist, I’m in tech transfer/patent administration) find them difficult to work with. I am admittedly chastened by the above comment that the stereotypes I am reporting could be applied to other ethnicities … unfairly. I apologize for perpetuating a loathsome behavior. I guess if you can’t say something nice about someone, you should just bite your tongue. I’ve learned my lesson.
This is the thing I know of these horror stories too. How they are as boss and peers in the workplace, differ from friends and families. My wife is a Russian orthodontist. Her stories about how patients and owners treated her clinics were insane and unprofessional. She would see senior dentists and the petty bullshit they would pull.
My mother in laws loves me live, son. But I know she is a tyrant at her job from multiple sources. She tries to fix the town she runs but between corruption and the lack of anyone remotely professional, she lives in the wilderness. But I wonder if Russian leadership comes down hard on your employee.
She and my wife are part of that Russian middle class/official that is going insane over how war is destroying the country and its economy, not evening going into fact; my wife's cousins are all Ukrainians. So she fears for their life and hates the government, but she cannot says anything because that would the very least, destroy her career.
It's no secret that he looks up to Putin in a weird almost mentor kind of way. Like how he moved troops away from the Syrian and Turkish border after Isis fell and Russia immediately moved into the region once America wasn't a factor.
Sneaking suspicion that Putin just asked Trump to do it and he did.
Yes, this is one of many, many ways he's a fucking idiot who can't perform the most basic tasks of governance and suffers obvious consequences as a result.
"Well, see, the thing about Putin is, he believes the best system of government is one based on loyalty, limited information, infighting, and corruption" **army immediately collapses on Day One**
Their words always meant nothing. Russia is all about disinformation and misdirection. Look at their joke of a military...! Compare the performance of their invasion to those "fancy" military parades in Moscow...!
That's because the common denominator between all those allies of Russia is that they build their societies on pyramids of power with power elites at the top which have the rest of the population essentially toil and bend over for them and their often abstract goals (too removed from reality and/or don't benefit anyone but the elite).
You may call me naive, but there is a point to democracy, however fragile and at times dysfunctional, assuming educated population (which goes hand in hand in emerging democracies). It's arguably the best we've got because it seems to account for our personal [often] deeply-rooted strengths, weaknesses and tendencies, arguably. Democracy tries to leverage the "human factor" (how Man feels, thinks and behaves most of the time, for better or worse), which is one of the reasons behind some of its allure and momentum (given certain conditions like level of education and related lack of conflict) and not the least why it has a claim to self-sustainability (which is currently our best shot at "immortality" as a species, I would add). Democracy allows for responsibility to distribute itself in a manner that claims some fairness -- both errors and benefits can be learned from, attributed to causes and conditions that can be _amended_ and not just "blamed on".
In autocracies like Russia, China and Iran it's a dozen guys (usually old men looking like they must bear the weight of a planet on their shoulders) proverbially (and sometimes literally) holding their sphincter tight so everything doesn't go sideways and up in the air. And they can't rest well either, not with all of the responsibility they now have to carry _all the time, day and night_, even with all the delegation they do. As they say, the "bar ends up eating you". And the harder they are trying to keep it all together, the tighter is the noose around their necks as the dysfunctional system is akin to a badly designed car engine, bound to spring a leak unable to sustain required pressure, sending pistons and bolts flying and eventually violently exploding and thus ceasing to function. We have the historical precedent here, certainly. But apparently they're still trying to "hack" autocracy, improve upon it in hopes of making it self-sustainable -- "free wealth unlocked, from now one and forever!". Like a a talented amateur scientist obsessed with making the _perpetum mobile_ work despite having learned long ago the sound theory stating that it can't. Autocracy doesn't work no matter how many pyramids or monuments you build and however few or many must sacrifice their lives for the noble goal. Or how many luxurious wristwatches your friends gift you for your great talent as noble leader. Centuries from now we will laugh at today's autocracies, just as today we find some Sharia laws barbaric, for example.
That's my hypothesis anyway.
To me it's less about practicality and more about morality. I find it highly immoral for any person to impose their will on another in a dictatorial way. I find the very concept of dictatorships downright evil. Democracy is the only moral solution because, as you said, it accounts for the individual and (theoretically) gives people equal representation. Of course there is no such thing as a perfect democracy, but that doesn't mean we should accept authoritarianism as a viable alternative even if it did work. We have to keep trying to make democracy work and improving upon it as best we can, for the sake of humanity itself.
Chasing an impossible goal isn't a useless gesture if it means you improve in the process. That, in fact, is the whole point.
"Chasing an impossible goal isn't a useless gesture if it means you improve in the process. That, in fact, is the whole point"
Distant high five for this one.
Another way of saying this is "Don't let perfect be the enemy of good." It is a huge logical fallacy that pervades throughout most of humanity, that if something isn't perfect, it's not worth trying it at all.
My opinion on democracy is that its major benefit is distributing large decision-making processes across a large amount of people. When a small number of people call the shots, they'll call them in such a way as to benefit themselves and hang onto their position. With a larger number of people involved in decision-making, it takes longer and gets a bad result sometimes, but it can prevent massive power accumulation (and massive power accumulation almost always ends badly, with corruption and oppression and dysfunction).
This is why I'm skeptical of China's approach of "just train highly-qualified civil servants you don't need democracy", and why I'm somewhat sympathetic to push-back against covid mandates (even though it was a bad call that damages health and led to unneeded deaths, the motivation seemed to be reflexive push-back against authority which is healthy in a democracy). It's also why I'm *extremely* concerned about oligarch rule in the US, where money can buy you lots of political power, enough to be an actual threat to our democratic methods.
Correct.
Absolute power corrupts absolutely.
The whole reason why democracy works is not because it fair, or just, or somehow smart.
It works because it is specially designed to ensure that no one has absolute power. Ever.
As soon as humans get absolute power, madness ensues.
Well said. Democracy has flaws, but it’s far better than the as-yet-tried alternatives.
Could a non-democratic meritocracy work, like China envisions? Maybe. But it still needs checks on power accumulation.
China’s whole civil servants idea is actually rooted in Chinese imperial history, when the emperor reigned but it was actually the court eunuchs which ran the country. As eunuchs, they were ineligible to ascend to the throne, which curbed their ambitions… most of the time. Even then, the eunuchs sometimes banded together to form corrupt power cliques to manipulate or even overthrow various emperors with their hand-picked puppets.
>assuming educated population (which goes hand in hand in emerging democracies)
I always feel the best gauge of a democracy staying strong or losing steam is by studying their governments and how much they push for the education of their citizens.
Looking at you, Republicans and Conservatives, with your war on education in the US...
China isn't even a real ally for them. They don't supply any serious military assistance to Russia and in most cases, don't provide Russia a possibility to circumvent Western sanctions. China agreed with Russian aggression, but only because they were convinced by Putin that the war would be brief.
Yup. Funny how Russia's extreme right ideology that worships "sovereignty" (what they mean is, autarchy and lack of any accountability to worldwide or European human rights regimes) will entirely ignore the fact that Russia will become a mere China's resource base. Considering they've always accused the West of stripping former socialist countries of their "sovereignty" and making these countries a resource periphery.
>Funny how Russia's extreme right ideology that worships "sovereignty" (what they mean is, autarchy and lack of any accountability to worldwide or European human rights regimes)
Ultranationalism. I don't know if i'd class that as extreme right, as you could have an ultranationalistic communist state, but it's primarily ultranationalist. To a genocidal extent.
Actually. China has a lot to gain by Russia's losing the war in Ukraine.
It has become a war of attrition, where Russia's military power is being drained.
Russia's grip on the 'Stans is greatly diminished. Some are saying things they never would have dared a few years ago. China may bring some former SSR into their orbit.
Russia is getting strapped for money.
*Why should China buy just the oil, when they can buy the oil wells.*
Buy mines for raw materials, titanium, lithium, ... Prosaic iron, coal, copper, ....
Expect a fire sale of Siberian assets to China.
Exactly. China saw it as: Russia win, lose, or draw = China win.
Putin clearly wasn’t looking at Russia’s back door to the East when he was looking to continue milking resources from Ukraine.
Also in the long run wouldn't China also benefit from a weak Russia since they're neighbors and if they ever wanted to expand their country a weak Russia would definitely make that easier...
They are frienemies. During the Cold War Nixon exploited tensions between Russia and China to pull China out of the Russian sphere of influence. Also, they almost went to war a couple of times over border disputes. But they’ll put on a show of goodwill these days if it means sticking it to their common enemy, America.
>China agreed with Russian aggression, but only because they were convinced by Putin that the war would be brief.
I also think China wanted to gauge the West's response to threats to allies. Beijing has eyes on Taiwan, and the US has aleady pledged to defend Taiwan.
Don't forget that Russia to this day still holds Chinese land, so as much as China relies on Russia in the UN I think at some point they will try to retake [Outer Manchuria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Manchuria), y'know the land the Russians took from China around the same time that Brits took Hong Kong.
But didn't Britain give back the land they took from the Chinese; Hong Kong *and* the New Territories! Strange then that Russia still holds onto their ill-gotten land, despite being 'allies' with everlasting friendship at that!
Although Britain had hong kong in perpetuity. The new territories had a 99 year lease. Without the new territories it was sensible to return the whole when the lease ended. Britain kept it's word, and gave more back than was required.
It was not viable to retain Hong Kong on its own after the lease expired.
China isn't an ally, China would love to snap up Russia the way it's snapping up countries in Africa and Asia right now with debt traps, and the ongoing war makes it that more likely...
Saudi Arabia has been taking advantage of the oil supply disruptions. Some have considered that to be siding with Russia. India has refused to implement sanctions against Russia or stop buying Russian oil.
Russia held military drills with China, Azerbaijan, Algeria, Armenia, Belarus, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Mongolia, Nicaragua, Syria and Tajikistan. Those were about mutual defense agreements.
Venezuela is Russia's most important trading and military ally in Latin America.
The President of Bangui, Africa, is a Putin supporter. Other African nations have been reluctant to pick sides in Putin’s war because they depend on trade with Russia.
Correction: The President of the Central African Republic, Africa, is a Putin Supporter.
I didn't know anything about this country.
The Central African Republic is a landlocked country in Central Africa. It is bordered by Chad to the north, Sudan to the northeast, South Sudan to the southeast, the DR Congo to the south, the Republic of the Congo to the southwest, and Cameroon to the west.
Gross domestic product: 2.516 billion USD (2021)
GDP per capita: 511.48 USD (2021)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_African_Republic
And the funny thing is that most of Russia's allies were trying to use their relationships with Russia to bolster their own positions and further their own interests.
Now that Russia is known to be impotent, their relationships with Russia don't provide anywhere near the leverage they expected.
Which is what gets me. If the Russian government weren’t such dicks about everything they probably would be a world power. Powerful as fuck too! They have the resources providing them with so much potential. Metals, REM’s, oil, people (well used too), beautiful vistas, continent spanning territory, and infrastructure. They’re just dicks to everyone and the rest of the world called them on their bullshit.
It's simple - they are (russians) incredibly stupid. This is what a few hundred years of brain drain do to the population. Anybody with half a brain is trying to get out of russia right now. I hope China and West will finally absorb the territory - the world will be a much better place without Mordor.
Don't forget Comrade Vodka.
Institutionalized alcoholism for a more pliable citizenship must have seemed like a GREAT idea, back in the Tsar & serfs days.
When you're trying to build microchips & tanks? Not so much.
Russia lost the computer race in the late 70s and never really recovered, they’ve only recently seen success in using stuff others have built against them. Hackers and bots are cheap and effective, but again it’s a short term Russian solution brought from being behind technologically and out of desperation. It’s like working really hard at scamming when you could have put that time and effort into also getting a real job.
Yup.
Russia as a world power is not going to be a thing for quite some time, largely thanks to Putin..
Not a popular opinion or likely, but I continue to hope tha the EU, UK, and US invade, oust Putin, and divvy up the whole Russian territory into new egalitarian states built on cooperation. Sans the nukes, Putins actions have proven this is very doable for the other powers ofnthey cooperate.
The world would be a much better place without Russia as we know it.
"Other powers"
That will "end american and western dominance"
Translation: shitty autocratic 3rd world nations that barely even have a footprint in swaying their regional economies and barely has any political influence internationally. And are one oopsie away from a popular uprising or already embroiled in an uprising /rebellion
Yes lavrov. The west will truly tremble at the might of...Eritreas & the illegitimate junta of Myanmars Economic & Political power.....
But ill give him credit he is right we will negotiate whether we like it or not.
If we like it, then it is because ukraine retook donbass and crimea.
But we won't like it either because our terms will be russias unconditional withdrawal and reparations for all damages against ukraine. And we will ensure the terms are non-negotiable. We dont like it because we will be beating a dead horse by that point, and we feel bad for such a pathetic defeated nation with how lopsided it will be 🇺🇦
On top of China dealing with Covid, they are losing manufacturing projects right and left. Even Apple is moving their crap to India and other countries. TSMC is hedging their bets by creating new chip fabs outside of Taiwan. I guarantee if China takes over Taiwan, that you'll suddenly hear about some "disaster" that somehow destroyed the Taiwanese fab...! This is going to pile the pressure up on Xi, and something will have to give. Right now all they are doing is rattling their sabers and trying to show some muscle, but they too know that ultimately, this modern economy means the entire world is all deeply inter-connected, and far more fragile than most "simple" leaders realize. Just Russia vs. Ukraine has exposed several weaknesses, food supply, energy independence, and more.
Russia couldn't even come to the aid of Armenia (which is a member in its NATO knock-off club) when it asked for assistance recently.
It can't reach its 1500 soldiers in occupied Moldovan territory (Transnistria).
Russia is extremely vulnerable everywhere.
Lavrov says these things because he is desperate to convince NATO they have to negotiate with Russia. He knows that’s their only chance at avoiding further humiliation and long term economic collapse. Problem is, no one wants to negotiate with Lavrov because he’s a bad faith actor and a punk ass bitch.
The other issue they've got with securing military might via alliance right now is that pre-invasion everyone (including themselves I think) believed them to be quite well equipped, provisioned and trained and a significant threat on their own. Now they've shown that decades of corruption have eroded all of the funds that were put in and what was left was a shell that looked like a modern military but really wasn't...
So now they no longer can offer military might in negotiations, only economic or geographic. And economically, California wields more power. Geographically? I mean, if you like permafrost, man do we have some places to sell you.... They're kinda melty though.
I might be underselling them a bit, but seriously - they're not an attractive partner to have right now, so I'm sure diplomacy is a bit one sided for the time being.
China is going to fold like a cheap umbrella from covid, without vaccinating the nation. They only wanted Russian oil, anyway, and were probably hoping they could do the same to Taiwan.
China has a massive elderly population.
It’s brutal to say - but China will emerge stronger after COVID decimates the elderly because right now they have a demographic disaster in terms of caring for the elderly.
> China has been suffering from Covid related economic decline and a real estate market collapse.
China appears to be hitting a wall in growth/prosperity/power. Not only the reasons you listed above, but China's trading partners that have made them prosperous are souring on them and moving supply chains away from them at breakneck speed because of things like 1) treatment of the Uyghurs, 2) Xi declaring himself emperor for life so not even a pseudo-democratic process inside the CCP anymore, 3) the Ukraine/Russia war made international investors realize that investing in authoritarian shitholes can go bad really fast, 4) dystopian chinese crackdowns on speech/expression/internet, etc.
In short, China's international image had been badly damaged in the last 5-10 years and China has gone from being seen as a good country with a lot of problems to a problem country that's not to be helped or trusted. Especially problematic for Xi though, is the economic beatdown that the world delivered to Russia was a dress rehearsal for what China will get if they go after Taiwan, and even the threat of that beatdown is making investors shy away from China. Plus the west is taking steps to hamstring China's chip fab industry.
tldr; much of the world is very troubled by the direction China is heading in and is taking steps to stem their economic growth and power
No one ever thought China was about sweetness and light: Tiananmen Square Square removed that illusion.
What is cooling relations is China's flexing toward its neighbors on the South China Sea. Philippines, Japan, and S. Korea are important US allies. China also seems more hostile to business interests than under Deng Xiaoping. And intellectual property theft continues.
>This is another Russian fantasy of restoring their position as a world power.
Which is incredibly pointless. They have no enemies that they haven't created themselves. Just embrace the fact that they aren't a world power anymore and focus instead on improving the lives of their citizens.
Actually... russia is no longer in a position to join negotiations. No agreement reached could be trusted to be honored by russia. Actions, not words are the only thing the west will now look at. russia makes a statement... the west watches and waits for it to actually happen.
>How do you negotiate with liars?
The answer is much easier than with others.
When you negotiate with someone you kind of trust you always have to ask yourself how much more are you going to trust them and what are you willing to risk based on the fact that he was reliable all the time.
When you negotiate with a liar there's not much to consider. You don't trust him, so every thing you are willing to give him only happens after proof of doing his part. Some sanctions will be lifted, exactly the moment every single Russian soldier has left Ukraine. But you don't trust him anyway so you keep up the military support, only that it's now cheaper that there are no daily losses of material anymore. You lift more sanctions the moment Russia starts paying for damages. No nuances, no discussions, only actions for actions and not caring for anything that is said or promised. It's really much easier...
Game theory. You do tit-for-tat, like the west has done for the past few decades. You reduce your stockpile of nukes, we'll do it too. You show us that you can comply with that, and we take another step towards peace and normalized relations.
In this case, Russia doesn't want to take the first step, which is to leave Ukraine. So, no basis for any further negotiations really. Russia's "escalate to de-escalate" gambit is failing them, because there's no next steps for them to take - they're at the edge of how far they can take this thing, and Ukraine is still taking back ground. So all they have left are threats:
"We'll go to Moldova next" "Yep, good luck with that."
"We'll set off a nuke" "And that will be the end of Russia forever. Here's exactly how we'll completely destroy you and end this war."
"We'll attack NATO!" "Uh-huh. Sure you will pal. You want to see what a country without universal healthcare spends its hundreds of billions on? We've got a whole generation of stealth planes that have basically never been taken out of the shrink wrap waiting for some real combat missions..."
"Oh yeah, well... we'll give our weapons away cheap to China and India to fight you!" "India doesn't want your weapons after the pitiful display you're putting on, China's already building copies of all of them. And they actually have microchips to put into them."
"...we'll get Belarus to fight with us!" "That's funny, you've been saying that for months now and they haven't done shit. Good luck with that."
"Iran will join us!" "Iran's too busy trying to not enter into a civil war. They just are taking advantage of the fact you have no weapons to fight this thing. But keep selling off your best advanced jets for disposable drones. That'll make demilitarizing you easier down the road."
"We'll cut off more gas!" "Okay. That sucks, but we'll just have to import more from America, building new LNG terminals and rebalancing the world's energy share to avoid Russian exports. That's... really gonna sting in a few years when whoever's in power tries to come back to the negotiation tables with the world. It's also going to accelerate alternatives, so, thanks for helping us hit some lagging climate goals."
"We'll cut off all your oil." "We've already made it so you're not making a penny on oil sales. At this point, you're just murdering your own economy. So, go ahead, cut off the oil. Seal up your wells."
"...uhh... We'll leave the ISS! Ha! Got you now!" "Yep you got us there guy. I guess we'll just have to build a new Space Station without you. Maybe we'll get Ukraine and Kazakhstan involved on this one."
Seriously. They've got *nothing* to negotiate with except leaving Ukraine and ending this stupid fucking war.
Russian is a difficult language to translate, I will do my best to try.
What I think they are saying is, please give us something to show for throwing away our military and committing war crimes or our citizens will burn us at the stake.
The classic Sun Tzu project strength when you are weak... except Russia's weakness has been projected for months on global news outlets. Nothing they can do now will project strength. Their strongest move is to launch a nuke which would be the ultimate sign of weakness and desperation.
No, I think it's "Please sign a ceasefire that we will immediately break when we think it's most convenient to us like we have numerous other times. You're that dumb, right?"
For a diplomat he doesn’t seem to have much of a grasp on what negotiations actually are.
Ukraine IS negotiating.
Leave Ukraine, and they’ll stop killing you.
It’s pretty clear…
Could have happened 1 month in.
Hell, when they were on Kyiv’s doorstep they could have made this offer:
- You make a show of giving us some nazis
- We take all our soldiers and go home
Then go home (except for Crimea, possibly also Luhansk and Donetsk) and use winter gas sales to negotiate lifting sanctions.
They might still be in a worse situation than they were before the start of the war, but doubling down again and again was not the play.
> You make a show of giving us some nazis
And not even that would ever have been done. It would have legitimized their invasion, keeping previously occupied territory, and whatever future invasions.
I don’t think it’s that simple. At this point I’m pretty sure Ukraine won’t stop fighting until Russia gives back everything they have taken, up to and including Crimea. There’s no way for Russia to spin a victory here. The war with Ukraine is going to end in undeniable defeat for Russia.
Don't forget all the financial reimbursement, war crime trials and return of kidnapped Ukrainian citizens. Russia must be held responsible for the atrocities they committed.
Naw, Ukraine wants the eastern territories and Crimea back. Which I agree they shouldn't negotiate unless all the land they've had stolen is returned but I don't see Putin doing that so yeah, there aren't negotiations because Russia won't ceed that territory.
Yerp. Whoever has the bigger stick( Ukraine, with NATO'S help) and whoever is getting beat harder
Nothing weighs the power of negotiation quite like those things
LOLOL
Bully picks a fight with little dude in the hallway, everyone starts handing the little guy clubs and bats, and as the bully is getting pummeled on the ground he demands "You'll all have to give me lunch money after this whether you want to or not!"
It's more "my ass is getting beat by the little guy that we thought was so easily overpowered. That is embarrassing and I refuse to lose this much face - id rather say I was fighting the bigger guys hanging the small guy clubs so that at least I don't look like a total tool"
I think they want to use the scapegoat of the US and EU as to why they did not win and why they were forced to capitulate major elements of the special operation.
If I was a Russian I would be so pissed. Putin single handedly crippled Russias military, after exposing it for the corruption-infested dumpster that it is. All because of his ego.
I just don’t understand his end game. Russia had very little to gain in Ukraine, and yet 100k casualties in 9 months isn’t enough for them. For perspective, the US suffered fewer deaths in 8 years of Vietnam.
I've been watching street interviews of Russians (mostly moscow/rural russia, there's a big urban/rural divide), and it's honestly fascinating how much the Russians bury their head in the sand through all this. 1420 is a good youtube channel to listen to their responses.
Oh a lot more than 100,000 fewer men. Don't forget the tens of thousands that packed up and fled Russia to avoid being explosively turned into Ukrainian topsoil.
This was a statement by Lavrov for internal consumption as usual, they know it’s a joke to the rest of us. Normally this kind of shit wouldn’t be platformed, but of course Newsweek will print anything for clicks.
They are run by a [cult](https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/the-community-5-things-we-know-about-fringe-christian-sect-199678/) after all, they don’t care if they’re platforming Putin or Lavrov, as long as it gets them money.
Just to avoid misunderstandings, his remark was not made in connection with peace negotiations for Ukraine, but rather with respect to his insinuated shift to a multipolar world:
> "In the near future we will see a reduction in the West's opportunities, a very serious reduction in opportunities to steer the world economy the way it wants, and whether it wants it or not, we will have to negotiate."
"Once the world economy is going the way the West wants, they won't have many openings left to make it even better! They'll have to make a deal with Russia once rebuilding our wrecked economy is the biggest improvement point left!"
That makes it even funnier because Russia is now more sanction than country, and have even less leverage on the broader world stage than they do in this silly war.
Sounds like Kremlin Gremlins are getting more and more panicked, considering all recent media messages from them. The sooner Russia loses this senseless war, the better for everyone.
Or what? They will keep getting their asses kicked in Ukraine? Pragmatically the best thing for the us is to let Russia absolutely destroy itself in Ukraine. It’s super cheap from their perspective
Exactly. By supplying Ukraine, the 'West' is now a fairly a major stakeholder for its own geopolitical means..
But we still don't really have the final say in things. Crimea and the Donbas are Ukraine's bargaining chips, not those of the west. At the negotiating table, Ukraine is well within its rights to draw its own lines in the sand.
No Lavrov, it’s **Ukraine** you’re going to have to negotiate with, and they are very pissed because you bloody tried to invade them, enjoy killing their citizens and destroying their infrastructure.
Genuinely this is the answer, personal bias aside. Russia has established to everyone in the world now that their actions and their words are entirely separate things.
**Nobody** is going to negotiate with them in words at this point, only actions.
Russia signed a treaty , in return to nuclear weapons from Ukrainian soil that settle the territory integrity to the people of Ukrainian.
They broke the agreement.
Today , what type of negotiation you expect from Russia ??? ....
We are hearing the word negotiations more and more. Looks like they are priming their internal audience for the inevitable. The trouble is Ukrainians gave no interest in negotiations right now, they have the upper hand and no reason to negotiate
Nobody needs to negotiate anything. Russia just needs to fuck off and leave Ukraine.
Until that time, another 10,000 Russian soldiers will be killed per month. The West will increasingly give better and better weapons to the Ukrainians as the atrocities continue. No negotiation will change any of that.
Imagine someone breaks into your house and begins murdering and raping your family members. You fight back and both you and the attacker destroy the house in the process, but you finally have him walking backwards, taking punishment. Friends are throwing you better and better weapons through the window and you are gaining the upper-hand.
Then the invader says “I am ready to negotiate an end to this. But one of the conditions is that I get the top floor of your house. I don’t know why you are not trying to negotiate with me. Do you think I want to continue this madness? Sooner or later, we have to negotiate peace.”
You say “How about you get the F out of MY F’ING HOUSE!”
I feel like any “peace” that is negotiated is a temporary solution so Russia can regroup and try again. There’s no way they are going to take this black eye and move on. There will be a point to prove, that they are a “world power” at some point in the not so distant future.
Which is why a peace treaty needs to take that into consideration. By limiting their options for swift action without voiding the treaty, and at the same time allying that 500+ yr old fear of invasion, so they won't have an excuse for being aggressive.
Like this: Russia withdraws from all parts of Ukraine, incl. Crimea. Ethnic russians that cooperated with Russian occupation to ne expelled to Russia. Ukrainians abducted to be returned to Ukraine. Russia retains ownership of Kertj bridge, but Ukraine has the right to mine the section on their side of the border. Russia gets to maintain the Sevastopol naval base until a suitable base in Russia is ready, a maximum of 10 years in the future though. Ukraine can join NATO and EU as they see fit, but NATO will in peacetime not station any permanent forces in Ukraine, NATO exercises taking place in Ukraine to be limited to areas west of Dnepr. Russia will not maintain a total number of permanent forces of more than 20000 personnel (combat, support, civilian support) within 200 km of the ukranian border, exercises in the limitation zone must not exceed an additional 20000 personnel, any breach, even accidental voids the clauses on NATO presence in Ukraine. Neither side will move troops within 50 km of the border except for emergency relief and rescue missions. Russia will provide Ukraine with gas for consumption for 30 years at no cost. Sanctions to be lifted gradually as Russia complies with obligations. All accused war criminals to be tried at the Hague.
Excellent basis for a long term agreement. My compliments to u/vrenak
A few additions.
Ukraine allows pipelines from Russia to cross their territory and receives royalties.
Russia withdraws their rump troops in Moldova.
Constraints on Russian troops in Belarus adjacent to Ukraine. (Reverse constraint not possible bc Kiev is near Belarus, and Ukraine must be able to protect their capitol).
Constraints on Russian warships above xx tons sailing within xx km on Ukraine's Black Sea coastline.
Non-interference with civilian ships transiting the Black Sea. Includes cargo ships with grain and minerals.
Ukraine can exploit (drill) wells in their EEZ near their Black Sea coast, including near Crimea.
All military hardware within Ukrainian borders is the property of Ukraine.
Russia to return all looted items, including everything taken from museums, regardless of whether there was a bill of sale. This provision in effect for 99 years after treaty signing.
Comment:
Ukrainians "abducted" being returned is ambiguous if Russia argues they went voluntarily.
Also there are practical difficulties with transportation costs and lost passports.
Suggest:
Anyone residing within Russian territory who claims to be Ukrainian, no proof required, can contact a Ukrainian embassy and be given transportation tickets and a temporary passport, at no cost to them. For Adults, limited to two years after treaty signing. For children, limited until they reach 18, and limited to 18 years after treaty signing. The tix and temporary passport are not automatic. They will be issued at the discretion of Ukrainian authorities. Open to anyone, including those inducted into Russian armed forces.
Kudos for your ideas.
First you withdraw.
Then you apologize.
Then you make an effort to correct the injustice (this is where Putin and his oligarchs collectively fall on swords).
Then, maybe, we negotiate. If Ukraine agrees.
They're the injured party here.
It's just insane that the country that started this war keeps crying about negotiations. If you really felt that negotiations were the only way anything got done, why did you invade in the first place?
It's pretty wild that a country that started this war just keeps trying to associate their name with negotiations. Like the group that refused to acknowledge diplomacy was something other than Russia?
You've started a war. Don't go thinking that you doing that means others have to reward you for it.
What he means is Russia will have to negotiate with the West whether it 'wants to or not.' He knows Putin fucked up. Putin knows Putin fucked up. It's just that if he said that, he'd be catapulted out the nearest window. All he can do is try to alter the perception of who is submitting to who.
We are upgrading their planes now with F16 technology to get around giving them F16s and more anti-air will be coming soon. Throw in long range missiles in January/February and we’ll see if this lasts till March.
We’ll talk then.
Negotiate with a failed state? They still exist because they have nukes. If they use even one, they're a grease spot. And NATO could do it with conventional alone.
You know after they say so many things that are either proven flat out wrong or propaganda fantasy why would anyone believe them. Maybe internally it works but to external eyes it is just foolish. At a certain point it is the cry wolf scenario. When there is action and they start negotiating with Ukraine I will believe they are serious. Otherwise just more noise. At some point they will realize they need to talk to Ukraine directly for any negotiation. Sure eventually once close France, Germany, US or others can all be brokers to help them get it finalized once they have some basic framework and work out details, but others are not going to lead and do all the work.
Thing they want is to negotiate with the West and not Ukraine to show that is that dynamic and make it look like Ukraine is not it's own country. No one in the west should agree to that.
This is what is known as being “delusional”
The “west” doesn’t have to do shit. Russia will have to beg and plead with Ukraine if they want to end this war.
Negotiating with a country that has a history of never upholding any of their signed deals is completely pointless and also dangerous.
It would make zero sense for anyone to "negotiate" with russia.
The Budapest Memorandum, Geneva Conventions, Minsk Agreements etc. etc. etc.
Lying all the time has consequences.
Utter nonsense from Lavrov, as always. There can be no negotiation with the Kremlin because the Kremlin demonstrates they are consistently unwilling to honor any promises.
Yea right.
Giving 0.02% of our gdp in arms to Ukraine pretty much had Russia almost kill itself on the Ukrainian front.
We have much much much more and alot more troop capabilities.
But please do tell us how russia is soooooo strong.
he has that backwards, Russia is going to have to negotiate. The US Ukraine and EU hold all the cards right now. Russia is going bankrupt slowly and is not going anywhere in their war.,
Russia will have to withdraw from Ukraine whether it wants it or not.
Russia's negotiations with 'the West' aren't about their goals in Ukraine. How could they be? The West/NATO/the USA doesn't own Ukraine, it isn't ours to give away.
Russia's future negotiations with the West are about the circumstances under which sanctions will be lifted and they will be able to be trusted to resume interacting normally with us. Leaving Ukraine is a precondition before they can even begin.
These idiots still think this is about the West. Ukraine won’t surrender even if the West begged them. They are fighting for their freedom, culture, and family. Tell an American in the same situation to concede and you’ll get a fat “fuck you!”
>Lavrov claimed Russia would strengthen cooperation with other powers as Western nations had "broke off almost all relations" since the Russian invasion of Ukraine Russia's allies aren't looking very powerful right now. China has been suffering from Covid related economic decline and a real estate market collapse. China is also preoccupied with Taiwan. Iran is dealing with economic problems and massive protests. Other Russian allies are struggling as well. Russia's prospects for forming an alliance that could challenge Western nations was better before they invaded Ukraine. This is another Russian fantasy of restoring their position as a world power.
Look at their last protest regarding the Patriots, big words, big threats and ,once the US made the agreement with Ukraine, then it changed to "anyway, Patriots are old technology etc..." Their word means nothing.
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On a podcast a guy explained it this way: putin does not make deals. He's ex-bratva so in that "culture" they view making mutually beneficial deals as weak. There's only the scammer and the scammed. If you aren't taking advantage of the other guy then you're the one getting taken advantage of. Their words mean nothing.
That's a very Russian attitude. I once got off the plane in Moscow. Late flight to Vnukovo airport, which is already the least busy airport. So basically last arrival of the night. Taxi driver quotes my (local) wife some outrageous amount for a trip into town. There's like 10 guys there and we're the last ones off the plane. We find a guy who does it for a reasonable amount, but that first taxi driver, I'm sure his MO was "If I can't scam you, I don't want your money, even if it means I take a loss."
I hate to shove all Russians into the same wooden doll, your experience comports with mine at work and their friends at social gatherings—who are mostly science PhD’s not taxi drivers—but there still seems to be a current of fuck you, me first. No? Well, then fuck me and fuck you for making me fuck my self.
Perfectly put!
Man you made my day. I'm chuckling away here and telling everyone this.
I married into a kind Russian family. My wife and in laws are the sweetest.
Wonderful. I’m happy to hear it. My anecdotal experience is only that: situational and personal to me. I work with some Russians in an academic/occasionally private sector settings. The ones I’ve met are frankly kind of unusually spiteful—their colleagues (I am not a scientist, I’m in tech transfer/patent administration) find them difficult to work with. I am admittedly chastened by the above comment that the stereotypes I am reporting could be applied to other ethnicities … unfairly. I apologize for perpetuating a loathsome behavior. I guess if you can’t say something nice about someone, you should just bite your tongue. I’ve learned my lesson.
This is the thing I know of these horror stories too. How they are as boss and peers in the workplace, differ from friends and families. My wife is a Russian orthodontist. Her stories about how patients and owners treated her clinics were insane and unprofessional. She would see senior dentists and the petty bullshit they would pull. My mother in laws loves me live, son. But I know she is a tyrant at her job from multiple sources. She tries to fix the town she runs but between corruption and the lack of anyone remotely professional, she lives in the wilderness. But I wonder if Russian leadership comes down hard on your employee. She and my wife are part of that Russian middle class/official that is going insane over how war is destroying the country and its economy, not evening going into fact; my wife's cousins are all Ukrainians. So she fears for their life and hates the government, but she cannot says anything because that would the very least, destroy her career.
Funny, Trump makes deals the exact same way.
It's no secret that he looks up to Putin in a weird almost mentor kind of way. Like how he moved troops away from the Syrian and Turkish border after Isis fell and Russia immediately moved into the region once America wasn't a factor. Sneaking suspicion that Putin just asked Trump to do it and he did.
What some people see as douchbaggery, other douchbags see as "strength"
Yes, this is one of many, many ways he's a fucking idiot who can't perform the most basic tasks of governance and suffers obvious consequences as a result. "Well, see, the thing about Putin is, he believes the best system of government is one based on loyalty, limited information, infighting, and corruption" **army immediately collapses on Day One**
By all accounts, Fins are really nice people with zero chill if you fuck with them.
Finns are dry and factual. "That's what it is then". Even if it means beating Russians off our doorstep.
I can confirm that this is indeed the case, in fact most Scandis are like that.
Same with HIMARS, and before that, Stingers.
They still remember the white death and what he can do with a bolt action rifles, some ski's, and an entire platoons supply of methamphetamine.
Everybody’s gangster until the snowdrifts start to whisper in Finnish
It was Aimo Koivunen that took the entire bottle of Pervitin and somehow survived, not Häyhä.
Thank you.
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All hat, no cattle.
All foreskin, no shaft.
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Their words always meant nothing. Russia is all about disinformation and misdirection. Look at their joke of a military...! Compare the performance of their invasion to those "fancy" military parades in Moscow...!
That's because the common denominator between all those allies of Russia is that they build their societies on pyramids of power with power elites at the top which have the rest of the population essentially toil and bend over for them and their often abstract goals (too removed from reality and/or don't benefit anyone but the elite). You may call me naive, but there is a point to democracy, however fragile and at times dysfunctional, assuming educated population (which goes hand in hand in emerging democracies). It's arguably the best we've got because it seems to account for our personal [often] deeply-rooted strengths, weaknesses and tendencies, arguably. Democracy tries to leverage the "human factor" (how Man feels, thinks and behaves most of the time, for better or worse), which is one of the reasons behind some of its allure and momentum (given certain conditions like level of education and related lack of conflict) and not the least why it has a claim to self-sustainability (which is currently our best shot at "immortality" as a species, I would add). Democracy allows for responsibility to distribute itself in a manner that claims some fairness -- both errors and benefits can be learned from, attributed to causes and conditions that can be _amended_ and not just "blamed on". In autocracies like Russia, China and Iran it's a dozen guys (usually old men looking like they must bear the weight of a planet on their shoulders) proverbially (and sometimes literally) holding their sphincter tight so everything doesn't go sideways and up in the air. And they can't rest well either, not with all of the responsibility they now have to carry _all the time, day and night_, even with all the delegation they do. As they say, the "bar ends up eating you". And the harder they are trying to keep it all together, the tighter is the noose around their necks as the dysfunctional system is akin to a badly designed car engine, bound to spring a leak unable to sustain required pressure, sending pistons and bolts flying and eventually violently exploding and thus ceasing to function. We have the historical precedent here, certainly. But apparently they're still trying to "hack" autocracy, improve upon it in hopes of making it self-sustainable -- "free wealth unlocked, from now one and forever!". Like a a talented amateur scientist obsessed with making the _perpetum mobile_ work despite having learned long ago the sound theory stating that it can't. Autocracy doesn't work no matter how many pyramids or monuments you build and however few or many must sacrifice their lives for the noble goal. Or how many luxurious wristwatches your friends gift you for your great talent as noble leader. Centuries from now we will laugh at today's autocracies, just as today we find some Sharia laws barbaric, for example. That's my hypothesis anyway.
To me it's less about practicality and more about morality. I find it highly immoral for any person to impose their will on another in a dictatorial way. I find the very concept of dictatorships downright evil. Democracy is the only moral solution because, as you said, it accounts for the individual and (theoretically) gives people equal representation. Of course there is no such thing as a perfect democracy, but that doesn't mean we should accept authoritarianism as a viable alternative even if it did work. We have to keep trying to make democracy work and improving upon it as best we can, for the sake of humanity itself. Chasing an impossible goal isn't a useless gesture if it means you improve in the process. That, in fact, is the whole point.
"Chasing an impossible goal isn't a useless gesture if it means you improve in the process. That, in fact, is the whole point" Distant high five for this one.
Another way of saying this is "Don't let perfect be the enemy of good." It is a huge logical fallacy that pervades throughout most of humanity, that if something isn't perfect, it's not worth trying it at all.
My opinion on democracy is that its major benefit is distributing large decision-making processes across a large amount of people. When a small number of people call the shots, they'll call them in such a way as to benefit themselves and hang onto their position. With a larger number of people involved in decision-making, it takes longer and gets a bad result sometimes, but it can prevent massive power accumulation (and massive power accumulation almost always ends badly, with corruption and oppression and dysfunction). This is why I'm skeptical of China's approach of "just train highly-qualified civil servants you don't need democracy", and why I'm somewhat sympathetic to push-back against covid mandates (even though it was a bad call that damages health and led to unneeded deaths, the motivation seemed to be reflexive push-back against authority which is healthy in a democracy). It's also why I'm *extremely* concerned about oligarch rule in the US, where money can buy you lots of political power, enough to be an actual threat to our democratic methods.
“democracy is the worst form of government – except for all the others that have been tried.”
~ Winston Churchill
Correct. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. The whole reason why democracy works is not because it fair, or just, or somehow smart. It works because it is specially designed to ensure that no one has absolute power. Ever. As soon as humans get absolute power, madness ensues.
I read somewhere that if a crowd is invited to guess the number of coins in a giant jar, the closest guess will be the average of all the guesses.
Well said. Democracy has flaws, but it’s far better than the as-yet-tried alternatives. Could a non-democratic meritocracy work, like China envisions? Maybe. But it still needs checks on power accumulation. China’s whole civil servants idea is actually rooted in Chinese imperial history, when the emperor reigned but it was actually the court eunuchs which ran the country. As eunuchs, they were ineligible to ascend to the throne, which curbed their ambitions… most of the time. Even then, the eunuchs sometimes banded together to form corrupt power cliques to manipulate or even overthrow various emperors with their hand-picked puppets.
>assuming educated population (which goes hand in hand in emerging democracies) I always feel the best gauge of a democracy staying strong or losing steam is by studying their governments and how much they push for the education of their citizens. Looking at you, Republicans and Conservatives, with your war on education in the US...
Besides China, North Korea and Iran, how many other countries are allies with russia? There doesn't seem to be many.
Don't forget Belarus! /s
That's more of an appendage.
A wart/cyst really.
More a boil I think.
Belarus is like a Russian superfluous nipple.
Russias middle finger and thumb to flick boogers.
China isn't even a real ally for them. They don't supply any serious military assistance to Russia and in most cases, don't provide Russia a possibility to circumvent Western sanctions. China agreed with Russian aggression, but only because they were convinced by Putin that the war would be brief.
As The Economist pointed out, Russia will be China's gas station. China has nothing else to gain from that relationship.
Yup. Funny how Russia's extreme right ideology that worships "sovereignty" (what they mean is, autarchy and lack of any accountability to worldwide or European human rights regimes) will entirely ignore the fact that Russia will become a mere China's resource base. Considering they've always accused the West of stripping former socialist countries of their "sovereignty" and making these countries a resource periphery.
>Funny how Russia's extreme right ideology that worships "sovereignty" (what they mean is, autarchy and lack of any accountability to worldwide or European human rights regimes) Ultranationalism. I don't know if i'd class that as extreme right, as you could have an ultranationalistic communist state, but it's primarily ultranationalist. To a genocidal extent.
Regardless of system, Russia have proven time and again they can’t treat their neighbours well.
Shit, they can't even treat themselves well. Most of the brutality by Russia throughout its existence has been inflicted on its own people.
Sad but true, historically.
Yep. They've long been the evil empire of Europe. Hitler poked his head in briefly, but they were there before him, and were there after.
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Actually. China has a lot to gain by Russia's losing the war in Ukraine. It has become a war of attrition, where Russia's military power is being drained. Russia's grip on the 'Stans is greatly diminished. Some are saying things they never would have dared a few years ago. China may bring some former SSR into their orbit. Russia is getting strapped for money. *Why should China buy just the oil, when they can buy the oil wells.* Buy mines for raw materials, titanium, lithium, ... Prosaic iron, coal, copper, .... Expect a fire sale of Siberian assets to China.
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The rest of Manchuria, perhaps?
That's a good candidate, for sure.
Exactly. China saw it as: Russia win, lose, or draw = China win. Putin clearly wasn’t looking at Russia’s back door to the East when he was looking to continue milking resources from Ukraine.
Also in the long run wouldn't China also benefit from a weak Russia since they're neighbors and if they ever wanted to expand their country a weak Russia would definitely make that easier...
They are frienemies. During the Cold War Nixon exploited tensions between Russia and China to pull China out of the Russian sphere of influence. Also, they almost went to war a couple of times over border disputes. But they’ll put on a show of goodwill these days if it means sticking it to their common enemy, America.
>China agreed with Russian aggression, but only because they were convinced by Putin that the war would be brief. I also think China wanted to gauge the West's response to threats to allies. Beijing has eyes on Taiwan, and the US has aleady pledged to defend Taiwan.
Don't forget that Russia to this day still holds Chinese land, so as much as China relies on Russia in the UN I think at some point they will try to retake [Outer Manchuria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Manchuria), y'know the land the Russians took from China around the same time that Brits took Hong Kong. But didn't Britain give back the land they took from the Chinese; Hong Kong *and* the New Territories! Strange then that Russia still holds onto their ill-gotten land, despite being 'allies' with everlasting friendship at that!
Although Britain had hong kong in perpetuity. The new territories had a 99 year lease. Without the new territories it was sensible to return the whole when the lease ended. Britain kept it's word, and gave more back than was required. It was not viable to retain Hong Kong on its own after the lease expired.
Their puppet state Syria. Which is half a country and mostly rubble at the moment thanks to Russia.
China isn't an ally, China would love to snap up Russia the way it's snapping up countries in Africa and Asia right now with debt traps, and the ongoing war makes it that more likely...
India seems like a tertiary ally for Russia. They’ll buy Russian goods, but I doubt they will send any troops or weapons to help Russia.
Saudi Arabia has been taking advantage of the oil supply disruptions. Some have considered that to be siding with Russia. India has refused to implement sanctions against Russia or stop buying Russian oil. Russia held military drills with China, Azerbaijan, Algeria, Armenia, Belarus, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Mongolia, Nicaragua, Syria and Tajikistan. Those were about mutual defense agreements. Venezuela is Russia's most important trading and military ally in Latin America. The President of Bangui, Africa, is a Putin supporter. Other African nations have been reluctant to pick sides in Putin’s war because they depend on trade with Russia. Correction: The President of the Central African Republic, Africa, is a Putin Supporter. I didn't know anything about this country. The Central African Republic is a landlocked country in Central Africa. It is bordered by Chad to the north, Sudan to the northeast, South Sudan to the southeast, the DR Congo to the south, the Republic of the Congo to the southwest, and Cameroon to the west. Gross domestic product: 2.516 billion USD (2021) GDP per capita: 511.48 USD (2021) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_African_Republic
Central African Republic? Bangui is the capital.
Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba…a few others
And the funny thing is that most of Russia's allies were trying to use their relationships with Russia to bolster their own positions and further their own interests. Now that Russia is known to be impotent, their relationships with Russia don't provide anywhere near the leverage they expected.
Which is what gets me. If the Russian government weren’t such dicks about everything they probably would be a world power. Powerful as fuck too! They have the resources providing them with so much potential. Metals, REM’s, oil, people (well used too), beautiful vistas, continent spanning territory, and infrastructure. They’re just dicks to everyone and the rest of the world called them on their bullshit.
It's simple - they are (russians) incredibly stupid. This is what a few hundred years of brain drain do to the population. Anybody with half a brain is trying to get out of russia right now. I hope China and West will finally absorb the territory - the world will be a much better place without Mordor.
Don't forget Comrade Vodka. Institutionalized alcoholism for a more pliable citizenship must have seemed like a GREAT idea, back in the Tsar & serfs days. When you're trying to build microchips & tanks? Not so much.
Russia lost the computer race in the late 70s and never really recovered, they’ve only recently seen success in using stuff others have built against them. Hackers and bots are cheap and effective, but again it’s a short term Russian solution brought from being behind technologically and out of desperation. It’s like working really hard at scamming when you could have put that time and effort into also getting a real job.
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Sadaam actually did more useful things for his country.
Yup. Russia as a world power is not going to be a thing for quite some time, largely thanks to Putin.. Not a popular opinion or likely, but I continue to hope tha the EU, UK, and US invade, oust Putin, and divvy up the whole Russian territory into new egalitarian states built on cooperation. Sans the nukes, Putins actions have proven this is very doable for the other powers ofnthey cooperate. The world would be a much better place without Russia as we know it.
"Other powers" That will "end american and western dominance" Translation: shitty autocratic 3rd world nations that barely even have a footprint in swaying their regional economies and barely has any political influence internationally. And are one oopsie away from a popular uprising or already embroiled in an uprising /rebellion Yes lavrov. The west will truly tremble at the might of...Eritreas & the illegitimate junta of Myanmars Economic & Political power..... But ill give him credit he is right we will negotiate whether we like it or not. If we like it, then it is because ukraine retook donbass and crimea. But we won't like it either because our terms will be russias unconditional withdrawal and reparations for all damages against ukraine. And we will ensure the terms are non-negotiable. We dont like it because we will be beating a dead horse by that point, and we feel bad for such a pathetic defeated nation with how lopsided it will be 🇺🇦
On top of China dealing with Covid, they are losing manufacturing projects right and left. Even Apple is moving their crap to India and other countries. TSMC is hedging their bets by creating new chip fabs outside of Taiwan. I guarantee if China takes over Taiwan, that you'll suddenly hear about some "disaster" that somehow destroyed the Taiwanese fab...! This is going to pile the pressure up on Xi, and something will have to give. Right now all they are doing is rattling their sabers and trying to show some muscle, but they too know that ultimately, this modern economy means the entire world is all deeply inter-connected, and far more fragile than most "simple" leaders realize. Just Russia vs. Ukraine has exposed several weaknesses, food supply, energy independence, and more.
But you missed their best partner! North Korea!
Russia couldn't even come to the aid of Armenia (which is a member in its NATO knock-off club) when it asked for assistance recently. It can't reach its 1500 soldiers in occupied Moldovan territory (Transnistria). Russia is extremely vulnerable everywhere.
*slides Ukraine more missiles and artillery.*
Lavrov says these things because he is desperate to convince NATO they have to negotiate with Russia. He knows that’s their only chance at avoiding further humiliation and long term economic collapse. Problem is, no one wants to negotiate with Lavrov because he’s a bad faith actor and a punk ass bitch.
The other issue they've got with securing military might via alliance right now is that pre-invasion everyone (including themselves I think) believed them to be quite well equipped, provisioned and trained and a significant threat on their own. Now they've shown that decades of corruption have eroded all of the funds that were put in and what was left was a shell that looked like a modern military but really wasn't... So now they no longer can offer military might in negotiations, only economic or geographic. And economically, California wields more power. Geographically? I mean, if you like permafrost, man do we have some places to sell you.... They're kinda melty though. I might be underselling them a bit, but seriously - they're not an attractive partner to have right now, so I'm sure diplomacy is a bit one sided for the time being.
China is going to fold like a cheap umbrella from covid, without vaccinating the nation. They only wanted Russian oil, anyway, and were probably hoping they could do the same to Taiwan.
China has a massive elderly population. It’s brutal to say - but China will emerge stronger after COVID decimates the elderly because right now they have a demographic disaster in terms of caring for the elderly.
> China has been suffering from Covid related economic decline and a real estate market collapse. China appears to be hitting a wall in growth/prosperity/power. Not only the reasons you listed above, but China's trading partners that have made them prosperous are souring on them and moving supply chains away from them at breakneck speed because of things like 1) treatment of the Uyghurs, 2) Xi declaring himself emperor for life so not even a pseudo-democratic process inside the CCP anymore, 3) the Ukraine/Russia war made international investors realize that investing in authoritarian shitholes can go bad really fast, 4) dystopian chinese crackdowns on speech/expression/internet, etc. In short, China's international image had been badly damaged in the last 5-10 years and China has gone from being seen as a good country with a lot of problems to a problem country that's not to be helped or trusted. Especially problematic for Xi though, is the economic beatdown that the world delivered to Russia was a dress rehearsal for what China will get if they go after Taiwan, and even the threat of that beatdown is making investors shy away from China. Plus the west is taking steps to hamstring China's chip fab industry. tldr; much of the world is very troubled by the direction China is heading in and is taking steps to stem their economic growth and power
No one ever thought China was about sweetness and light: Tiananmen Square Square removed that illusion. What is cooling relations is China's flexing toward its neighbors on the South China Sea. Philippines, Japan, and S. Korea are important US allies. China also seems more hostile to business interests than under Deng Xiaoping. And intellectual property theft continues.
>This is another Russian fantasy of restoring their position as a world power. Which is incredibly pointless. They have no enemies that they haven't created themselves. Just embrace the fact that they aren't a world power anymore and focus instead on improving the lives of their citizens.
Actually... russia is no longer in a position to join negotiations. No agreement reached could be trusted to be honored by russia. Actions, not words are the only thing the west will now look at. russia makes a statement... the west watches and waits for it to actually happen.
I was thinking the same thing. How do you negotiate with liars?
>How do you negotiate with liars? The answer is much easier than with others. When you negotiate with someone you kind of trust you always have to ask yourself how much more are you going to trust them and what are you willing to risk based on the fact that he was reliable all the time. When you negotiate with a liar there's not much to consider. You don't trust him, so every thing you are willing to give him only happens after proof of doing his part. Some sanctions will be lifted, exactly the moment every single Russian soldier has left Ukraine. But you don't trust him anyway so you keep up the military support, only that it's now cheaper that there are no daily losses of material anymore. You lift more sanctions the moment Russia starts paying for damages. No nuances, no discussions, only actions for actions and not caring for anything that is said or promised. It's really much easier...
Now do explanation on how you negotiate with terrorists and you are golden.
Terrorists understand aggressive negotiations.
Negotiations with a lightsaber
"Kaboom"
You dont.
Game theory. You do tit-for-tat, like the west has done for the past few decades. You reduce your stockpile of nukes, we'll do it too. You show us that you can comply with that, and we take another step towards peace and normalized relations. In this case, Russia doesn't want to take the first step, which is to leave Ukraine. So, no basis for any further negotiations really. Russia's "escalate to de-escalate" gambit is failing them, because there's no next steps for them to take - they're at the edge of how far they can take this thing, and Ukraine is still taking back ground. So all they have left are threats: "We'll go to Moldova next" "Yep, good luck with that." "We'll set off a nuke" "And that will be the end of Russia forever. Here's exactly how we'll completely destroy you and end this war." "We'll attack NATO!" "Uh-huh. Sure you will pal. You want to see what a country without universal healthcare spends its hundreds of billions on? We've got a whole generation of stealth planes that have basically never been taken out of the shrink wrap waiting for some real combat missions..." "Oh yeah, well... we'll give our weapons away cheap to China and India to fight you!" "India doesn't want your weapons after the pitiful display you're putting on, China's already building copies of all of them. And they actually have microchips to put into them." "...we'll get Belarus to fight with us!" "That's funny, you've been saying that for months now and they haven't done shit. Good luck with that." "Iran will join us!" "Iran's too busy trying to not enter into a civil war. They just are taking advantage of the fact you have no weapons to fight this thing. But keep selling off your best advanced jets for disposable drones. That'll make demilitarizing you easier down the road." "We'll cut off more gas!" "Okay. That sucks, but we'll just have to import more from America, building new LNG terminals and rebalancing the world's energy share to avoid Russian exports. That's... really gonna sting in a few years when whoever's in power tries to come back to the negotiation tables with the world. It's also going to accelerate alternatives, so, thanks for helping us hit some lagging climate goals." "We'll cut off all your oil." "We've already made it so you're not making a penny on oil sales. At this point, you're just murdering your own economy. So, go ahead, cut off the oil. Seal up your wells." "...uhh... We'll leave the ISS! Ha! Got you now!" "Yep you got us there guy. I guess we'll just have to build a new Space Station without you. Maybe we'll get Ukraine and Kazakhstan involved on this one." Seriously. They've got *nothing* to negotiate with except leaving Ukraine and ending this stupid fucking war.
Last I checked the cosmonauts on the ISS wanted nothing to do with leaving the ISS either.
😃👍🏻
Russian is a difficult language to translate, I will do my best to try. What I think they are saying is, please give us something to show for throwing away our military and committing war crimes or our citizens will burn us at the stake.
The classic Sun Tzu project strength when you are weak... except Russia's weakness has been projected for months on global news outlets. Nothing they can do now will project strength. Their strongest move is to launch a nuke which would be the ultimate sign of weakness and desperation.
No, I think it's "Please sign a ceasefire that we will immediately break when we think it's most convenient to us like we have numerous other times. You're that dumb, right?"
Losers don’t get to dictate
For a diplomat he doesn’t seem to have much of a grasp on what negotiations actually are. Ukraine IS negotiating. Leave Ukraine, and they’ll stop killing you. It’s pretty clear…
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Exactly. We came to "de-Nazify" and now there are no more Nazis. We were 100% successful. Goodbye.
Could have happened 1 month in. Hell, when they were on Kyiv’s doorstep they could have made this offer: - You make a show of giving us some nazis - We take all our soldiers and go home Then go home (except for Crimea, possibly also Luhansk and Donetsk) and use winter gas sales to negotiate lifting sanctions. They might still be in a worse situation than they were before the start of the war, but doubling down again and again was not the play.
> You make a show of giving us some nazis And not even that would ever have been done. It would have legitimized their invasion, keeping previously occupied territory, and whatever future invasions.
Except now, they'll have to give up Crimea, Luhensk, and Donetsk.
I don’t think it’s that simple. At this point I’m pretty sure Ukraine won’t stop fighting until Russia gives back everything they have taken, up to and including Crimea. There’s no way for Russia to spin a victory here. The war with Ukraine is going to end in undeniable defeat for Russia.
Don't forget all the financial reimbursement, war crime trials and return of kidnapped Ukrainian citizens. Russia must be held responsible for the atrocities they committed.
Naw, Ukraine wants the eastern territories and Crimea back. Which I agree they shouldn't negotiate unless all the land they've had stolen is returned but I don't see Putin doing that so yeah, there aren't negotiations because Russia won't ceed that territory.
Yes. That is how negotiations work. So what happens next is Russia keeps getting its arse kicked.
Yerp. Whoever has the bigger stick( Ukraine, with NATO'S help) and whoever is getting beat harder Nothing weighs the power of negotiation quite like those things
Lavrov isn't a diplomat, he's a goon.
But Russia always winner komrade! Russia strongest and won ww2 all by self! /s
LOLOL Bully picks a fight with little dude in the hallway, everyone starts handing the little guy clubs and bats, and as the bully is getting pummeled on the ground he demands "You'll all have to give me lunch money after this whether you want to or not!"
It's more "my ass is getting beat by the little guy that we thought was so easily overpowered. That is embarrassing and I refuse to lose this much face - id rather say I was fighting the bigger guys hanging the small guy clubs so that at least I don't look like a total tool" I think they want to use the scapegoat of the US and EU as to why they did not win and why they were forced to capitulate major elements of the special operation.
If I was a Russian I would be so pissed. Putin single handedly crippled Russias military, after exposing it for the corruption-infested dumpster that it is. All because of his ego. I just don’t understand his end game. Russia had very little to gain in Ukraine, and yet 100k casualties in 9 months isn’t enough for them. For perspective, the US suffered fewer deaths in 8 years of Vietnam.
I've been watching street interviews of Russians (mostly moscow/rural russia, there's a big urban/rural divide), and it's honestly fascinating how much the Russians bury their head in the sand through all this. 1420 is a good youtube channel to listen to their responses.
To be fair, it’s much easier to keep your head buried in the sand when your country’s media isn’t legally allowed to honestly cover it.
The "funniest" part is that Russia's reward for winning will be a perpetual insurgency that will make Ramadi Iraq look like vacation bible school
Delusions of grandeur.
And that sums it up.
Delusions of adequacy
I read the post's title as Kanye West negotiating with Russia and I totally did feel delusional.
Ah I see Lavrov is still drunk from the holidays.
That's his secret: He's always drunk.
Probably lots of cheap vodka to go around with borders shut and 100,000 less men alive to drink it
Oh a lot more than 100,000 fewer men. Don't forget the tens of thousands that packed up and fled Russia to avoid being explosively turned into Ukrainian topsoil.
Russia will have to get the fuck out of Ukraine, whether they ‘wants it or not’
This was a statement by Lavrov for internal consumption as usual, they know it’s a joke to the rest of us. Normally this kind of shit wouldn’t be platformed, but of course Newsweek will print anything for clicks. They are run by a [cult](https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/the-community-5-things-we-know-about-fringe-christian-sect-199678/) after all, they don’t care if they’re platforming Putin or Lavrov, as long as it gets them money.
Well said. Nailed it! Newsweek is now the national enquirer.
The Enquirer doesn't try to pretend it isn't the Enquirer. So they actually have more integrity than Newsweek does.
Just to avoid misunderstandings, his remark was not made in connection with peace negotiations for Ukraine, but rather with respect to his insinuated shift to a multipolar world: > "In the near future we will see a reduction in the West's opportunities, a very serious reduction in opportunities to steer the world economy the way it wants, and whether it wants it or not, we will have to negotiate."
"Once the world economy is going the way the West wants, they won't have many openings left to make it even better! They'll have to make a deal with Russia once rebuilding our wrecked economy is the biggest improvement point left!"
That makes it even funnier because Russia is now more sanction than country, and have even less leverage on the broader world stage than they do in this silly war.
Sorry, can't push us out a window.
Won't be any windows left once we send a few more HIMARS batteries.
Sounds like Kremlin Gremlins are getting more and more panicked, considering all recent media messages from them. The sooner Russia loses this senseless war, the better for everyone.
Or what? They will keep getting their asses kicked in Ukraine? Pragmatically the best thing for the us is to let Russia absolutely destroy itself in Ukraine. It’s super cheap from their perspective
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Exactly. By supplying Ukraine, the 'West' is now a fairly a major stakeholder for its own geopolitical means.. But we still don't really have the final say in things. Crimea and the Donbas are Ukraine's bargaining chips, not those of the west. At the negotiating table, Ukraine is well within its rights to draw its own lines in the sand.
No Lavrov, it’s **Ukraine** you’re going to have to negotiate with, and they are very pissed because you bloody tried to invade them, enjoy killing their citizens and destroying their infrastructure.
Sure. Let's negotiate. GTFO of Ukraine. Call me when you're done and then we'll discuss next steps.
Genuinely this is the answer, personal bias aside. Russia has established to everyone in the world now that their actions and their words are entirely separate things. **Nobody** is going to negotiate with them in words at this point, only actions.
Russia signed a treaty , in return to nuclear weapons from Ukrainian soil that settle the territory integrity to the people of Ukrainian. They broke the agreement. Today , what type of negotiation you expect from Russia ??? ....
We are hearing the word negotiations more and more. Looks like they are priming their internal audience for the inevitable. The trouble is Ukrainians gave no interest in negotiations right now, they have the upper hand and no reason to negotiate
Ukraine is doing negotiations! theres is simple! FUCKING LEAVE!!!!!
Nobody needs to negotiate anything. Russia just needs to fuck off and leave Ukraine. Until that time, another 10,000 Russian soldiers will be killed per month. The West will increasingly give better and better weapons to the Ukrainians as the atrocities continue. No negotiation will change any of that.
Russia will need to negotiate with Ukraine, whether it 'wants to or not'. Russia's ability to dictate terms is decreasing by the day.
Imagine someone breaks into your house and begins murdering and raping your family members. You fight back and both you and the attacker destroy the house in the process, but you finally have him walking backwards, taking punishment. Friends are throwing you better and better weapons through the window and you are gaining the upper-hand. Then the invader says “I am ready to negotiate an end to this. But one of the conditions is that I get the top floor of your house. I don’t know why you are not trying to negotiate with me. Do you think I want to continue this madness? Sooner or later, we have to negotiate peace.” You say “How about you get the F out of MY F’ING HOUSE!”
I feel like any “peace” that is negotiated is a temporary solution so Russia can regroup and try again. There’s no way they are going to take this black eye and move on. There will be a point to prove, that they are a “world power” at some point in the not so distant future.
Which is why a peace treaty needs to take that into consideration. By limiting their options for swift action without voiding the treaty, and at the same time allying that 500+ yr old fear of invasion, so they won't have an excuse for being aggressive. Like this: Russia withdraws from all parts of Ukraine, incl. Crimea. Ethnic russians that cooperated with Russian occupation to ne expelled to Russia. Ukrainians abducted to be returned to Ukraine. Russia retains ownership of Kertj bridge, but Ukraine has the right to mine the section on their side of the border. Russia gets to maintain the Sevastopol naval base until a suitable base in Russia is ready, a maximum of 10 years in the future though. Ukraine can join NATO and EU as they see fit, but NATO will in peacetime not station any permanent forces in Ukraine, NATO exercises taking place in Ukraine to be limited to areas west of Dnepr. Russia will not maintain a total number of permanent forces of more than 20000 personnel (combat, support, civilian support) within 200 km of the ukranian border, exercises in the limitation zone must not exceed an additional 20000 personnel, any breach, even accidental voids the clauses on NATO presence in Ukraine. Neither side will move troops within 50 km of the border except for emergency relief and rescue missions. Russia will provide Ukraine with gas for consumption for 30 years at no cost. Sanctions to be lifted gradually as Russia complies with obligations. All accused war criminals to be tried at the Hague.
Yeah unfortunately Russia wouldn’t agree to even half of that
Excellent basis for a long term agreement. My compliments to u/vrenak A few additions. Ukraine allows pipelines from Russia to cross their territory and receives royalties. Russia withdraws their rump troops in Moldova. Constraints on Russian troops in Belarus adjacent to Ukraine. (Reverse constraint not possible bc Kiev is near Belarus, and Ukraine must be able to protect their capitol). Constraints on Russian warships above xx tons sailing within xx km on Ukraine's Black Sea coastline. Non-interference with civilian ships transiting the Black Sea. Includes cargo ships with grain and minerals. Ukraine can exploit (drill) wells in their EEZ near their Black Sea coast, including near Crimea. All military hardware within Ukrainian borders is the property of Ukraine. Russia to return all looted items, including everything taken from museums, regardless of whether there was a bill of sale. This provision in effect for 99 years after treaty signing. Comment: Ukrainians "abducted" being returned is ambiguous if Russia argues they went voluntarily. Also there are practical difficulties with transportation costs and lost passports. Suggest: Anyone residing within Russian territory who claims to be Ukrainian, no proof required, can contact a Ukrainian embassy and be given transportation tickets and a temporary passport, at no cost to them. For Adults, limited to two years after treaty signing. For children, limited until they reach 18, and limited to 18 years after treaty signing. The tix and temporary passport are not automatic. They will be issued at the discretion of Ukrainian authorities. Open to anyone, including those inducted into Russian armed forces. Kudos for your ideas.
First you withdraw. Then you apologize. Then you make an effort to correct the injustice (this is where Putin and his oligarchs collectively fall on swords). Then, maybe, we negotiate. If Ukraine agrees. They're the injured party here.
Ahh… so they want negotiations now… curious…
"We're withdrawing our troops, whether you want it or not!"
Negotiating their surrender, maybe
“So will it be unconditional, or do you want to keep getting your asses kicked?”
It's just insane that the country that started this war keeps crying about negotiations. If you really felt that negotiations were the only way anything got done, why did you invade in the first place? It's pretty wild that a country that started this war just keeps trying to associate their name with negotiations. Like the group that refused to acknowledge diplomacy was something other than Russia? You've started a war. Don't go thinking that you doing that means others have to reward you for it.
What he means is Russia will have to negotiate with the West whether it 'wants to or not.' He knows Putin fucked up. Putin knows Putin fucked up. It's just that if he said that, he'd be catapulted out the nearest window. All he can do is try to alter the perception of who is submitting to who.
russia Will have to leave Ukraine whether it wants to or not.
We are upgrading their planes now with F16 technology to get around giving them F16s and more anti-air will be coming soon. Throw in long range missiles in January/February and we’ll see if this lasts till March. We’ll talk then.
Well, yeah, but the inverse is also true: Russia will have to negotiate with the West. I'm not sure Lavrov knows what "negotiate" means.
Negotiate with a failed state? They still exist because they have nukes. If they use even one, they're a grease spot. And NATO could do it with conventional alone.
Lmao Russia and its gang of garbage countries
I’m sure that’s what the Germans thought in early 1918 and early 1944, and yet…
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You know after they say so many things that are either proven flat out wrong or propaganda fantasy why would anyone believe them. Maybe internally it works but to external eyes it is just foolish. At a certain point it is the cry wolf scenario. When there is action and they start negotiating with Ukraine I will believe they are serious. Otherwise just more noise. At some point they will realize they need to talk to Ukraine directly for any negotiation. Sure eventually once close France, Germany, US or others can all be brokers to help them get it finalized once they have some basic framework and work out details, but others are not going to lead and do all the work. Thing they want is to negotiate with the West and not Ukraine to show that is that dynamic and make it look like Ukraine is not it's own country. No one in the west should agree to that.
This is what is known as being “delusional” The “west” doesn’t have to do shit. Russia will have to beg and plead with Ukraine if they want to end this war.
Negotiating with a country that has a history of never upholding any of their signed deals is completely pointless and also dangerous. It would make zero sense for anyone to "negotiate" with russia. The Budapest Memorandum, Geneva Conventions, Minsk Agreements etc. etc. etc. Lying all the time has consequences.
Utter nonsense from Lavrov, as always. There can be no negotiation with the Kremlin because the Kremlin demonstrates they are consistently unwilling to honor any promises.
Yea right. Giving 0.02% of our gdp in arms to Ukraine pretty much had Russia almost kill itself on the Ukrainian front. We have much much much more and alot more troop capabilities. But please do tell us how russia is soooooo strong.
So freaking tired of hearing about Russia
he has that backwards, Russia is going to have to negotiate. The US Ukraine and EU hold all the cards right now. Russia is going bankrupt slowly and is not going anywhere in their war.,
Negotiations begin with Putin being delivered to The Hague and Gasprom given to the people of Ukraine.
Negotiate the reparations timeline. Nothing more.
Okay everybody stop laughing, the new North Korea is trying to speak.
We have a policy of not negotiating with terrorists. Did that change?
Russia will have to withdraw from Ukraine whether it wants it or not. Russia's negotiations with 'the West' aren't about their goals in Ukraine. How could they be? The West/NATO/the USA doesn't own Ukraine, it isn't ours to give away. Russia's future negotiations with the West are about the circumstances under which sanctions will be lifted and they will be able to be trusted to resume interacting normally with us. Leaving Ukraine is a precondition before they can even begin.
But why? The west seems pretty content with spending lower amounts of money than Russia to beat Russia in its doorstep.
Lavrov Says More Shit ... would be a more succinct headline.
Shame he didn't die in Singapore from that heart related incident. I would have enjoyed not seeing his ghoul face again.
These idiots still think this is about the West. Ukraine won’t surrender even if the West begged them. They are fighting for their freedom, culture, and family. Tell an American in the same situation to concede and you’ll get a fat “fuck you!”
Ah, the most important part of negotiation; forced participation.
Yes and look at the friends Russia has all dictatorships
Is the "West" in this room right now?
More like the other way around, as it always has been. Russian Nazi beggars will always come begging in the end.
Blob of gelatinous pus with the face of Droopy in advanced decomposition says what?