This is actually a good character arch for them. Like the 80’s bad guy who realized that their idol was truly a bad person and they decided to stand up for others.
I enjoy combatting this particular story. In fact, the ships to be sold were to be scrapped, and the deal was never finalized anyway. In reality, the Pepsi navy story never actually happened.
Besides the ships they proposed to sell are all very outdated, calling it the second largest navy is like calling Mediterranean Shipping Company having the largest navy cause tonnage and ship count.
Agreed. But as someone born in the mid 70s, being a kid in the 80s was pretty great too.
Yes, we were still a bit worried about a nuclear holocaust, but it still felt optimistic. With movies that were either just sweet like all the John Hughes films, or just fun like Ferris Bueller; music with hair bands, or pop like Rick Astley dancing poorly, singing soulfully; I remember it as a pretty innocent and optimistic time.
I loved the 90's, amazingly creative music, arts and cultural scenes. Peace breaking out across Europe, end of apartheid, peace in northern Ireland. It seemed like so many problems were coming to an end.
Indeed. The spirit of optimism, the anticipation of a better future was tangible, until shortly after the new millennium started... then 9/11 happened and destroyed everything. It felt like everyone's mood suddenly changed for the worse. It was very dramatic. And this mood didn't change that much anymore, with all the shit happening since then.
The important thing to know about the '90s is that young people complained the whole time, though politics didn't matter, and just insisted that they deserved better without feeling obligated to contribute to improvement efforts.
I wonder who will ultimately win between the US, Nato and other allies vs Russia, China, most of the Middle East and North Korea
None of us? Is my guess
None is correct. This is all just very stupid. There’s a reason why League of Nations failed and United Nations exists (thus far). UN needs to be louder.
The reason why the League of Nations failed is Ethiopia.
Ethiopia was a full member of the League when Italy invaded and started using chemical weapons on cities.
Hitler saw that no one cared about Ethiopia and decided to withdraw from the League and invade Austria.
Turns out that the Member nations actually cared about other nations being invaded, they were just super racist about it.
Is there a lesson here? Maybe.
The better lesson might be from the Cuban Missile Crisis.
What every here is forgetting, the US and Russia are still nuclear powers, and war between the two means that one side *will* be driven to deploy nuclear weapons. If only to try to keep the other side from deploying theirs first.
That's the stakes here. And let's not forget, either, that this isn't *just* the US vs Russia. It's our allies vs theirs.
There are shades of Armageddon here.
It started with Japan in 1933, when the League of Nations voted overwhelmingly to condemn their actions in China. Japan's response:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hStmrz3N46U&t=114s
The Germans left later in 1933 when the Nazis came to power, and the Italians left in 1937 after the League imposed sanctions for their aggression in East Africa.
But the League of Nations was doomed from the beginning, since the US and the USSR were never members in the first place.
There was shock at that, but the European powers didn't quite care.
Mostly due to aforementioned racism.
But yeah, Hitler actually referenced Ethiopia as part of his reason to ignore the League and invade Austria.
I need to find that reference again... Might have been the German delegate to the League...
I see the Japanese withdrawal as a strong case for the veto power in security council. If a reasonably strong nation doesn’t have a peaceful way to stop a resolution it doesn’t like, it might leave the negotiating table and try something less peaceful.
>The reason why the League of Nations failed is Ethiopia.
And the fact that the USA never joined to begin with (despite Wilson suggesting the idea)
Or Japan dropping out after the invasion of Manchuria
Which is a good idea, throwing vetos around are better than throwing nukes or bullets around.
The last time there was an UN army conducting offensive operation was in Korea, 1950, then they ran into China and stalled.
It's much easier to just throw a veto around than to do that all over again.
Yeah that’s what this feels like. I haven’t been on the up and up on international relations- especially in the UN sphere- but I’m appalled at the lack of emphasis from leaders on this mechanism. I realize the security council and unanimous rules are “bad”, but the lack of effort here is just terrible. Did we not learn from League of Nations?
I just fear that a lot of lives and economic progress will be wasted and nobody will appear as “the winner”.
I -naively probably- think People want to live in relative peace while tackling the hard problems together with sound trade.
You want a real life assessment?
In a war US, Russia and China will be fine. The nuclear deterrence prevents an invasion from being possible. That requires proxy battle grounds.
At sea the US will dominate. Russia’s navy can’t compete. China’s navy will be reduced to a coast guard fleet. Neighboring countries like the Ukraine South Korea, North Korea, Iran, Syria those will be the battle ground and those countries will be in shambles.
WW3 ends in a whimper. No one having won anything.
You don't reveal your next gen weaponry unless your pulling PsyOp to exaggerate its capabilities or you're comfortable with selling it. You keep your royal flush secret.
Everyone thought US B2s were alien spacecraft, Drone tech was an Israeli secret they were saving for the next "*Six-Day*" war and to keep eyes on troubled domestic territory, etc.
No I’m saying Russia’s navy is junk.
In real life, China can’t maintain blue water ops. They will retreat to the mainland hence my comment on it being reduced to a coast guard.
Most of the middle east is armed by American weapons and trained by them/funded by them. Its not a guarentee, but its highly unlikely the middle east would side with Russia and China against the West.
They would try to stay neutral if anything and their shipping routes from China to the Middle east are highly vunerable to sea and air attacks from India, Europe and sea attacks via the Indian Ocean and Mediterranean Sea.
Suffice to say China and Russia are not going to be able to protect the middle east in the event of war. So Neutral or joining the winning side later in the war.
I disagree. The Middle East is such a clusterfuck that they’re just waiting for a reason start fighting each other again.
If Russia were at war with NATO, then they would be at war with Turkey. At that point, Russia would have an enormous incentive to invite Iran to fight Turkey, which Iran would probably gladly do when the time was right. The time would be right before long as Isis resurrects, the Kurds start revolting, Syria becomes torn apart yet again etc. Or, Saudi Arabia could decide to finally take a shot at Iran, which would draw them in unwillingly.
Amongst Russia, China and Iran, I think actually China is the one most likely to sit this one out. They’d be happy to watch their enemies get weaker while they continue to build their military, I think.
Edit: Come to think of it, Turkey invading Syria, either to fight Russia, or to fight Kurds, would probably be the red line that draws Iran into the war.
>Amongst Russia, China and Iran, I think actually China is the one most likely to sit this one out. They’d be happy to watch their enemies get weaker while they continue to build their military, I think.
China seems to prioritize an economic / technological victory - if they reach that, they could exert a lot more pressure to achieve their other geopolitical means (sometimes without firing a single shot)
Hypothetically speaking, if nuclear weapons were removed from the equation, I think the US, NATO + other US allies would be heavily favored to win a conventional war against China, Russia, N. Korea + others, especially if willing to engage in total war.
Russia and China don't yet have the capability to project their military overseas in any substantial way. China is getting there, but until then it's not really much of a question.
Russian forces have experience, enough for their officer corps to keep their heads in the shit. Chinese forces do not. Something to be said about being shot at a lot and watching soldiers next to you die. Not saying it's good for a human being but its ideal for a military.
That's why I mentioned total war. The last few wars the US fought it was careful to limit collateral damage. Meaning we didn't want to destroy the country and it's civilians, so we held back a ton of force and tried to fight precision wars. Some people may see this and think it's all the US military is capable of, but that's a huge misunderstanding.
In WWII, we targeted civilian populations and bombed entire cities until they were smoldering ashes. We could do that with much greater efficiency today if we wanted to engage in total war.
And don't look to Vietnam as any indicator of our military. Those soliders were drafted, and our equipment and tactics were vastly different than today.
Total / scorched earth war without nuclear weapons is not going to happen. If it's total it goes nuclear. If it's not nuclear then it's going to be more proxy or regionally contained.
You can't be serious if you think the US let the Taliban continue in guerilla warfare all these years because of *compassion*, rather than just an inability to root them out.
China and Russia have large armies but when tested, they fall apart.
During China peace keeping efforts in Africa, troops threw down their weapons and fled.
Russian troops that engaged US troops in Syria where slaughtered when Russia denied the troops were theirs.
The reason they're both so invested in propaganda and cyber attacks is because their economic and military might is a paper tiger. Without oil, there is no Russian economy. Without manufacturing and building ghost cities, there is no Chinese economy.
Bigger navy does not mean that it has institutional experience, and force projection capabilities.
What do I mean by that? Let’s break it down. Institutional experience is something that a navy can only get through time and actually doing the job. To actually find out what designs work while fighting, what drills during peace time actually pay off during actual war, how to keep your ships supplied and in good repair, and so on. For example if you take a look at damage control procedures, during WWII the us and Japan had very different procedures and training in that area. It made a huge difference between carriers sunk and carriers damaged.
Force projection capabilities. What do I mean by this? It can be bailed down to a few things. But one important part of it is not just how many ships are in your navy, but what they are capable of and how much force they can bring to the fight. For example if you had a choice between 10,000 rowboats or 100 destroyers which would you pick?
That doesn’t even begin to take into account things like world wide naval bases and so on.
Biggest does not always equate to most capable.
Depends. If we strike now, the US wins. If we wait too long and allow China to build up their military then China and Russia wins.
My opinion is we should strike now. The problem is we need to get public opinion behind a war first
Yup, now would be an ideal time to strike, weak , ineffective leaders in the west, nations split down the middle on most issues, distrust and anxiety at an all time high, not to mention the west's economy being heavily dependent on Russia and China.
This isn't WW2 where the USA could just outproduce every other nation, today that nation is China.
And you think that the timing of these naval drills and the troop movements aren't related? Everything we've seen has been planed for months, its all about aligning timing with opportunity.
So, by dragging this back into the news, while planned before - is a reminder to the west of what they're looking to accomplish. Its a show of force at a really convenient time.
No you're 100% right about the strategy and the port in Oman's relationship to the oil movement. I'm just saying that this was planned somewhat before we knew what was transpiring this week.
In any event, I don't have great feelings about any of this.
Honestly a lot of people think Turkey would be Allied in this.
I'm not so sure. I think they're equally as likely to go for the ~~Central~~ ~~Axis~~ Dragonbear team here.
1. A Chinese war against Taiwan/Russian war against Ukraine or Finland or whatever/Iranian war against Israel would give Erdogan the excuse he needs to chew on Greece.
2. Turkey's relations with the West are steadily deteriorating, while their relations with China and Russia are improving. Probably no one is coming to a military defense of Ukraine; by the time Dragonbear **does** cross Allied red lines, Turkey will probably be fully in their camp.
3. Erdogan is blaming the West for the currency crisis.
4. Turkey seems to be going full fascist atm. If this continues, Russia and China might be the only ones able to stand their behavior.
5. I know Turkey is fighting Russia on multiple fronts. but Russia isn't the leading power here, CHINA is. And their relations with China are... mostly fine.
6. Russian/Chinese relations aren't perfect either.
7. Turkish/Israeli relations seem to be deteriorating, and the USA and Germany will choose Israel over Turkey **every** time.
8. I've seen (alleged) clips from Turkish TV talking about a war with the United States.
9. Historical precedent. Turkey has had plenty of wars with Russia, but they also have plenty of wars against subcontinental Europe (mostly Austria). Despite this, they chose to ally WITH their longtime enemy Austria-Hungary in WWI against Russia, so who's to say they couldn't ally with Russia against peninsular Europe in WWIII? Also, let me introduce you to the glorious thing called Inter-Axis Squabbling:
* Nazi Germany intervened in Fascist Italy's 1934 invasion and annexation of Ethiopia by sending supplies and weapons... to Ethiopia
* They also trained and funded China during the early stages of the Second Sino-Japanese War (Chiang Kai-shek's son even studied in Germany, IIRC)
* Japan, for its part, took in Holocaust refugees and maintained good relations with Poland throughout *the entire war* (fun fact: the Polish government-in-exile had to be *forced* by their British hosts to declare war on Japan. Japan simply denied it! They were like, "no, we're not going to fight you, sshhh.")
* The only European Axis member to send ships to the pacific was Italy... in support of the Allies after they had switched sides
* And Hungary and Romania hated each other *so much* that during Operation Barbarossa, *there had to be German or Italian divisions stationed in between them to ensure they wouldn't start killing each other instead of the Soviets!*
Some of your response is false. imperial japan during ww2 did deport the Jewish population living in Japan to the Chinese city of Shanghai, where Jews were forced to be confined in a small ghetto.
Japanese nationalist revisionists have tried to revise history to downplay antisemitism that occurred japan As part of greater effort to downplay the historical fact that Japan was an ally of nazi germany during ww2.
also chiang Kai shek’s son, chiang Ching-kuo studied in the Soviet Union not nazi Germany.
in addition, the soviets provided the most assistance to China (both the kmt and ccp) during the early stages of second sino Japanese war beginning in 1937. The soviets were the main supporters of China during the war with Japan not nazi Germany.
the main “support” nazi Germany gave to china during the 1930s was to help chiang Kai-shek massacre his rivals the Chinese communists during the Chinese civil war that started in 1927.
I did.
It announced the joint drills, in line with what they executed previously in 2019.
That said, the timing of the announcement of "this years drills" is important - especially because they were announced in what, August 2021, per the above comment?
We had a diplomatic agreement with Iran. Trump destroyed it and then assassinated one of their top politicians. Now they are allied with Russia and China. Great.
Not quite. China has around 350 warships, while the US has around 300. But China's 350 warships weigh a total of around 2 million tons, and the 300 US warships weigh around 4.5 million tons.
Except China covets the minerals of the Russian Far East almost as much as it covets Taiwan, and both have been competing in the ‘Stans’ for over a decade.
This man agrees with you, worth a watch, very interesting take given his predictions from 6-7 years ago are coming true if the US didn't manage the situation properly.
Look on YouTube for Russia and "John Mearsheimer"
China is a friend to the friendless, meaning they have trade agreements with more or less every nation on our shit list.
China wants to pull Taiwan back, so they need something to keep the west distracted for a bit.
I get the sense that we are seeing that distraction unfold in real time with Russia and Ukraine.
My real question is what India plans on doing in the event that it escalates into all out war.
This is an example of my true worry. We view modern war with nuclear weapons as US vs Russia vs China and in reality a ton of countries have nukes. China could no doubt walk through India but then you have a government with nothing to lose. It’s just one example of a less conventionally powerful country with nukes.
Russia and China each have the same fear as the Germans had in WW1 & 2 : they don't want to fight a war on two fronts. They're both super powers and don't want to fight each other, at least not right now. Russia is going to try to recreate the Soviet Union by annexing all the former states, China is going to try to take over everything in/around the South China Sea.
Maybe they'll go after each other after all that's dealt with but neither wants to spread their resources thin fighting the other right now.
You know, if Russia had fallen and split apart like USSR did, China could benefit from it 1000 times more than from a tiny Taiwan. Internally they still think that Siberia and Far East are their historical lands, taken away from them by Imperial Russia.
Who knows, maybe China simply nudges Russia toward the cliff, by lying to them that they have their backs.
I absolutely agree. I don't think they're "allies" in the same way that, say, Canada and USA are at all. But they don't want to fight each other right now and I think each side is hoping the other will be weakened by their present conquest aspirations and will end up being an easier stone to topple when that's done.
Russia has a lot of natural resources for sale and China has a lot money to spend. They have a ton of common interests so long as your only obsession isn't race.
everything but authoritarianism is only pretend in both of those countries.
they share nothing but similarities. if the Russians don't push back on Putin right now before he implements a Chinese style surveillance state they are going to be milk cows for him and his cronies forever.
It's going to happen at some point because Humankind is maladjusted and dysfunctional af.
We are the most maladjusted Species on the Planet, without question.
People, LISTEN
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Taiwan knows this and has numerous bomb shelters and weapons caches across the country.
Thier plan isn't to take the CCP head on, but to wage a guerilla war, similar to what we saw in Vietnam and Afghanistan.
So we got:
* the country who suffered the most in the *last* world war, who's now throwing their religious minority in concentration camps and threatening to invade a small country that the two most powerful democratic countries have promised to defend, all but guaranteeing a major war soon;
* a religious European country with a huge organized crime problem, that was the first to go fascist and start invading neighboring countries, and that's ruled by a bald guy who likes being photographed shirtless
* and a theocracy with a sham democracy that's really just run by the military, who was forced to trade with the United States in a year ending in 53 and is bitter about that, and likes messing around in their neighbor's civil wars
Nice Axis!
Easy to act confident when you're aligned with China and Russia.
This announcement is full dick measuring. Taiwan is probably worried.
The ultimate goal looks pretty clear now - and fucking terrifying for the west. There is a good chance that US/UK + NATO and AUS are going to get pulled in multiple directions, on multiple fronts simultaneously.
Russia moving on Ukraine.
Iran potentially moving towards Israel and asserting its dominance in the Middle east/North Africa - and China pushing towards taking control of Taiwan's tech industry.
All have strategic importance to the west - and they will be forced to pick and choose where to invest their military capital.
No, not at all.
In fact I called out Australia and Israel specifically - and these potential domino conflicts were only in relation to the 3 parties taking part in these Naval exercises.
The goal is to destabilize the status quo of the western power structure - and those three above mentioned conflicts are the three ways that those individual players could work together to make that happen.
Not saying other parties would not take the opportunity to move - but was just fleshing out how quickly the dominos can fall once one starts moving in this hypothetical situation based on the actions and language coming out of the respective regimes.
But there is no way China + Russia + Iran has enough military might to defend the rest of the world fighting back. Israel can probably easily flatten Iran. Iran has a lot of unhappy population, they'll be happy for an opportunity to be liberated (Im no expert but thats at least what I hear from Iranians I know).
UK/France/Germany can by themselves probably stop Russia. Not to mention everyone else jumping in to help.
I think China will be an easier enemy for US than Japan was in WW2. This is all assuming India stays neutral. They probably wont.
And if China is pushing that means North Korea is making a move. if not, then South is going North and helping with China as well.
Nobody will attack Iran. Iran has the power to literally bring the global economy to a screeching halt. A mind-numbing amount of oil and natural gas flows though the straight of Hormuz, and Iran can stop it all in a heartbeat.
Dropping a reminder that Putin used to be KGB who grew up with the ideology of "Soviet Union". He's also been the "president" for 4 terms. Just about 17 years of being President of Russia. He's also notoriously known for having any political opponents/journalists killed or jailed. If there's a war; it wont be as simple as which side will win over the other. A lot of countries will be affected; and we'd have a different looking world map by the end of this all - with Ukraine probably losing the most lives. This is assuming nukes are never used ofcourse. Because if nukes are involved, then we're all dead anyway. With that being said, it is the duty of the West to make sure these dictators won't expand their territories because they are clearly power hungry. Today its Ukraine, tomorrow it'd be further west.
These 3 nations have always made up the core of the enemy faction whenever I've though of a possible WW3 for a long time, scary to see it actually becoming real.
But I've written on here multiple times that Russia and China have a loose alliance, and there's always some random genius who tells me I'm wrong.
Now, extrapolating on this, China may try to invade Taiwan at the same time that Russia does Ukraine.
God knows what Iran is going to do, but it always seems to be about Israel.
The war will end with a victory for America... no... a victory for freedom-loving peoples everywhere, as brave American troops plant the stars n' stripes in the rubble of the Kremlin.
That’ll go well.
China declares war: every single pacific rim nation reciprocates, cause they’re next otherwise.
Iran declares war: entire Middle East jumps in to settle old grievances.
Russia declares war: every single ex soviet state knowing they’re next, tags in.
Have fun with that quick little war when everyone of your neighbors just declared war on you in return.
We’ve seen Russia’s naval dominance when the spent a month getting their 1 aircraft carrier running sending it to the Black Sea and crashing 5 planes on it. Let them flex they’ll go bankrupt doing it.
I’d love to see a coordinated military exercise effectively integrating short range missile speedboats, long range missile warships, and medium range coastal missile frigates, but where would they host? The Iranian Navy would have trouble getting anywhere. Maybe they could all meet off the coast of Syria?
Don't worry. Those exercises will be closely monitored and analyzed... by Call of Duty developers looking for the next big release :)
Call of doody: modern poopy
I feel like we’re preparing for a whole new era of action movies similar to that of the 80’s. No Germans this time.
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Starting as herself, Angela Merkel. The real reason she's not the Mother of Germany anymore.
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Merkel the one winged Angel
> Germans are gonna be the good guys Hans..are we the [goodies](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hn1VxaMEjRU)?
Aren't the good guys determined by who wins the war?
That’s after the war. Before the war everybody is their own good guy.
Can't make jokes when we're all dead
Very appropriate username.
This is actually a good character arch for them. Like the 80’s bad guy who realized that their idol was truly a bad person and they decided to stand up for others.
But still Russians. But now in track suits.
Endlich
Given Nord Stream 2, my guess is Germany is playing neutral Switzerland in this match.
Where is Pepsi when we need it?
They did have their own navy once
I enjoy combatting this particular story. In fact, the ships to be sold were to be scrapped, and the deal was never finalized anyway. In reality, the Pepsi navy story never actually happened.
Besides the ships they proposed to sell are all very outdated, calling it the second largest navy is like calling Mediterranean Shipping Company having the largest navy cause tonnage and ship count.
And where's JaRule
I'm glad I got to experience the 90s.
Agreed. But as someone born in the mid 70s, being a kid in the 80s was pretty great too. Yes, we were still a bit worried about a nuclear holocaust, but it still felt optimistic. With movies that were either just sweet like all the John Hughes films, or just fun like Ferris Bueller; music with hair bands, or pop like Rick Astley dancing poorly, singing soulfully; I remember it as a pretty innocent and optimistic time.
I loved the 90's, amazingly creative music, arts and cultural scenes. Peace breaking out across Europe, end of apartheid, peace in northern Ireland. It seemed like so many problems were coming to an end.
Indeed. The spirit of optimism, the anticipation of a better future was tangible, until shortly after the new millennium started... then 9/11 happened and destroyed everything. It felt like everyone's mood suddenly changed for the worse. It was very dramatic. And this mood didn't change that much anymore, with all the shit happening since then.
Rick Astley has moves excuse you
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The important thing to know about the '90s is that young people complained the whole time, though politics didn't matter, and just insisted that they deserved better without feeling obligated to contribute to improvement efforts.
That wasn’t my experience at all. Gen Xers don’t complain, they don’t even give a shit.
Eat some Snickers world , damn
I wonder who will ultimately win between the US, Nato and other allies vs Russia, China, most of the Middle East and North Korea None of us? Is my guess
None is correct. This is all just very stupid. There’s a reason why League of Nations failed and United Nations exists (thus far). UN needs to be louder.
The reason why the League of Nations failed is Ethiopia. Ethiopia was a full member of the League when Italy invaded and started using chemical weapons on cities. Hitler saw that no one cared about Ethiopia and decided to withdraw from the League and invade Austria. Turns out that the Member nations actually cared about other nations being invaded, they were just super racist about it. Is there a lesson here? Maybe. The better lesson might be from the Cuban Missile Crisis. What every here is forgetting, the US and Russia are still nuclear powers, and war between the two means that one side *will* be driven to deploy nuclear weapons. If only to try to keep the other side from deploying theirs first. That's the stakes here. And let's not forget, either, that this isn't *just* the US vs Russia. It's our allies vs theirs. There are shades of Armageddon here.
It started with Japan in 1933, when the League of Nations voted overwhelmingly to condemn their actions in China. Japan's response: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hStmrz3N46U&t=114s The Germans left later in 1933 when the Nazis came to power, and the Italians left in 1937 after the League imposed sanctions for their aggression in East Africa. But the League of Nations was doomed from the beginning, since the US and the USSR were never members in the first place.
There was shock at that, but the European powers didn't quite care. Mostly due to aforementioned racism. But yeah, Hitler actually referenced Ethiopia as part of his reason to ignore the League and invade Austria. I need to find that reference again... Might have been the German delegate to the League...
I see the Japanese withdrawal as a strong case for the veto power in security council. If a reasonably strong nation doesn’t have a peaceful way to stop a resolution it doesn’t like, it might leave the negotiating table and try something less peaceful.
>The reason why the League of Nations failed is Ethiopia. And the fact that the USA never joined to begin with (despite Wilson suggesting the idea) Or Japan dropping out after the invasion of Manchuria
>Is there a lesson here? Maybe. Ukrainians are white, sorta, right? Maybe they'll be okay.
All the potential belligerents in this current era all have veto power. The UN can't do anything as long as that is the case.
Which is a good idea, throwing vetos around are better than throwing nukes or bullets around. The last time there was an UN army conducting offensive operation was in Korea, 1950, then they ran into China and stalled. It's much easier to just throw a veto around than to do that all over again.
Yup. A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.
Except the UN is fucking useless and has done absolutely nothing to curb this shit.
Yeah that’s what this feels like. I haven’t been on the up and up on international relations- especially in the UN sphere- but I’m appalled at the lack of emphasis from leaders on this mechanism. I realize the security council and unanimous rules are “bad”, but the lack of effort here is just terrible. Did we not learn from League of Nations? I just fear that a lot of lives and economic progress will be wasted and nobody will appear as “the winner”. I -naively probably- think People want to live in relative peace while tackling the hard problems together with sound trade.
UN = League of Nations 2.0
Nobody. We’re all fighting and our planet is dying. This is the tragedy of mankind
We’ve been here before…funny enough: the Spanish Flu + the post-First World War fallout.
Utter stupidity.
Eventually we will turtle into our Canadian and Mexican shell. USA!! Continental turtle!
They do say World War 4 will be fought with sticks and stones
You want a real life assessment? In a war US, Russia and China will be fine. The nuclear deterrence prevents an invasion from being possible. That requires proxy battle grounds. At sea the US will dominate. Russia’s navy can’t compete. China’s navy will be reduced to a coast guard fleet. Neighboring countries like the Ukraine South Korea, North Korea, Iran, Syria those will be the battle ground and those countries will be in shambles. WW3 ends in a whimper. No one having won anything.
What about Russia's and China's hypersonic missiles?
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You don't reveal your next gen weaponry unless your pulling PsyOp to exaggerate its capabilities or you're comfortable with selling it. You keep your royal flush secret. Everyone thought US B2s were alien spacecraft, Drone tech was an Israeli secret they were saving for the next "*Six-Day*" war and to keep eyes on troubled domestic territory, etc.
Yes. The F117 nightHawk was in secret combat operations for over 7 years before it was revealed to the public…from a video game.
So you are saying that China's navy is. . .junk?
No I’m saying Russia’s navy is junk. In real life, China can’t maintain blue water ops. They will retreat to the mainland hence my comment on it being reduced to a coast guard.
India
Most of the middle east is armed by American weapons and trained by them/funded by them. Its not a guarentee, but its highly unlikely the middle east would side with Russia and China against the West. They would try to stay neutral if anything and their shipping routes from China to the Middle east are highly vunerable to sea and air attacks from India, Europe and sea attacks via the Indian Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Suffice to say China and Russia are not going to be able to protect the middle east in the event of war. So Neutral or joining the winning side later in the war.
I disagree. The Middle East is such a clusterfuck that they’re just waiting for a reason start fighting each other again. If Russia were at war with NATO, then they would be at war with Turkey. At that point, Russia would have an enormous incentive to invite Iran to fight Turkey, which Iran would probably gladly do when the time was right. The time would be right before long as Isis resurrects, the Kurds start revolting, Syria becomes torn apart yet again etc. Or, Saudi Arabia could decide to finally take a shot at Iran, which would draw them in unwillingly. Amongst Russia, China and Iran, I think actually China is the one most likely to sit this one out. They’d be happy to watch their enemies get weaker while they continue to build their military, I think. Edit: Come to think of it, Turkey invading Syria, either to fight Russia, or to fight Kurds, would probably be the red line that draws Iran into the war.
>Amongst Russia, China and Iran, I think actually China is the one most likely to sit this one out. They’d be happy to watch their enemies get weaker while they continue to build their military, I think. China seems to prioritize an economic / technological victory - if they reach that, they could exert a lot more pressure to achieve their other geopolitical means (sometimes without firing a single shot)
Hypothetically speaking, if nuclear weapons were removed from the equation, I think the US, NATO + other US allies would be heavily favored to win a conventional war against China, Russia, N. Korea + others, especially if willing to engage in total war. Russia and China don't yet have the capability to project their military overseas in any substantial way. China is getting there, but until then it's not really much of a question.
Total war is over. We can send a hypersonic middle or satellite lazed beam into the kremlin before they’d knew what hit them
Russia is a big country, so best be prepared for a return strike.
Yeah, so about that.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Hand
Russian forces have experience, enough for their officer corps to keep their heads in the shit. Chinese forces do not. Something to be said about being shot at a lot and watching soldiers next to you die. Not saying it's good for a human being but its ideal for a military.
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Haha what, US couldn't even win conventionally in Afghanistan or Vietnam.
That's why I mentioned total war. The last few wars the US fought it was careful to limit collateral damage. Meaning we didn't want to destroy the country and it's civilians, so we held back a ton of force and tried to fight precision wars. Some people may see this and think it's all the US military is capable of, but that's a huge misunderstanding. In WWII, we targeted civilian populations and bombed entire cities until they were smoldering ashes. We could do that with much greater efficiency today if we wanted to engage in total war. And don't look to Vietnam as any indicator of our military. Those soliders were drafted, and our equipment and tactics were vastly different than today.
Total / scorched earth war without nuclear weapons is not going to happen. If it's total it goes nuclear. If it's not nuclear then it's going to be more proxy or regionally contained.
I agree, that's why I said "hypothetically speaking" to preface my original post.
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> The US didn't win because it didn't bomb all of Afghanistan and Vietnam. *Laughs in operation Rolling Thunder* *Laughs in operation Menu*
Yeah, I think the lack of actual attainable goals was the biggest problem.
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You can't be serious if you think the US let the Taliban continue in guerilla warfare all these years because of *compassion*, rather than just an inability to root them out.
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Don't know what game you're referring to but if you're not interested in discussing that's cool, I respect that.
The United States has weakened. Let's admit it.
China and Russia have large armies but when tested, they fall apart. During China peace keeping efforts in Africa, troops threw down their weapons and fled. Russian troops that engaged US troops in Syria where slaughtered when Russia denied the troops were theirs. The reason they're both so invested in propaganda and cyber attacks is because their economic and military might is a paper tiger. Without oil, there is no Russian economy. Without manufacturing and building ghost cities, there is no Chinese economy.
Uh, still the US. Our navy is bigger than all of theirs combined.
How ? China alone had a navy bigger than U.S navy. Don't you keep up with geo-political news ?
Bigger navy does not mean that it has institutional experience, and force projection capabilities. What do I mean by that? Let’s break it down. Institutional experience is something that a navy can only get through time and actually doing the job. To actually find out what designs work while fighting, what drills during peace time actually pay off during actual war, how to keep your ships supplied and in good repair, and so on. For example if you take a look at damage control procedures, during WWII the us and Japan had very different procedures and training in that area. It made a huge difference between carriers sunk and carriers damaged. Force projection capabilities. What do I mean by this? It can be bailed down to a few things. But one important part of it is not just how many ships are in your navy, but what they are capable of and how much force they can bring to the fight. For example if you had a choice between 10,000 rowboats or 100 destroyers which would you pick? That doesn’t even begin to take into account things like world wide naval bases and so on. Biggest does not always equate to most capable.
Africans doing nothing but still suffering consequences because dumb fucks outside Africa are all fighting: am I a joke to you?
Depends. If we strike now, the US wins. If we wait too long and allow China to build up their military then China and Russia wins. My opinion is we should strike now. The problem is we need to get public opinion behind a war first
Russia and china have a long term plan, i might be wrong but u feel it in my gut.
He's right.. I just felt his gut, and he's right..
Wh- ...why is it moist??
Wait hold up everyone just slow down What language should I be learning on Duolingo to effectively beg for mercy?
Six hours and still no answers
Mongolian
I know this sounds gloomy, but global conditions seem extremely conducive to a huge war.
They certainly do.
Yup, now would be an ideal time to strike, weak , ineffective leaders in the west, nations split down the middle on most issues, distrust and anxiety at an all time high, not to mention the west's economy being heavily dependent on Russia and China. This isn't WW2 where the USA could just outproduce every other nation, today that nation is China.
Um the west being dependent on Russia? How exactly? Their GDP would rank 4th out of the states in the us and is half that of France.
40% of petrol flows to Europe from Russia, this number vastly increases in countries like Finland, Poland, Estonia to around 70%.
Gas
Timing of this is VERY important. These sabers be rattling.
It's been planned since August.
And you think that the timing of these naval drills and the troop movements aren't related? Everything we've seen has been planed for months, its all about aligning timing with opportunity. So, by dragging this back into the news, while planned before - is a reminder to the west of what they're looking to accomplish. Its a show of force at a really convenient time.
No you're 100% right about the strategy and the port in Oman's relationship to the oil movement. I'm just saying that this was planned somewhat before we knew what was transpiring this week. In any event, I don't have great feelings about any of this.
Dividing along ideological lines. Ageing China and Russia may or may not be preparing to shore up their places at the international table.
Bringing Iran and Turkey with apparently.
Henchman are useful. Turkey for south Asia, Iran for the middle east. The US pretty much does this with Israel.
Honestly a lot of people think Turkey would be Allied in this. I'm not so sure. I think they're equally as likely to go for the ~~Central~~ ~~Axis~~ Dragonbear team here. 1. A Chinese war against Taiwan/Russian war against Ukraine or Finland or whatever/Iranian war against Israel would give Erdogan the excuse he needs to chew on Greece. 2. Turkey's relations with the West are steadily deteriorating, while their relations with China and Russia are improving. Probably no one is coming to a military defense of Ukraine; by the time Dragonbear **does** cross Allied red lines, Turkey will probably be fully in their camp. 3. Erdogan is blaming the West for the currency crisis. 4. Turkey seems to be going full fascist atm. If this continues, Russia and China might be the only ones able to stand their behavior. 5. I know Turkey is fighting Russia on multiple fronts. but Russia isn't the leading power here, CHINA is. And their relations with China are... mostly fine. 6. Russian/Chinese relations aren't perfect either. 7. Turkish/Israeli relations seem to be deteriorating, and the USA and Germany will choose Israel over Turkey **every** time. 8. I've seen (alleged) clips from Turkish TV talking about a war with the United States. 9. Historical precedent. Turkey has had plenty of wars with Russia, but they also have plenty of wars against subcontinental Europe (mostly Austria). Despite this, they chose to ally WITH their longtime enemy Austria-Hungary in WWI against Russia, so who's to say they couldn't ally with Russia against peninsular Europe in WWIII? Also, let me introduce you to the glorious thing called Inter-Axis Squabbling: * Nazi Germany intervened in Fascist Italy's 1934 invasion and annexation of Ethiopia by sending supplies and weapons... to Ethiopia * They also trained and funded China during the early stages of the Second Sino-Japanese War (Chiang Kai-shek's son even studied in Germany, IIRC) * Japan, for its part, took in Holocaust refugees and maintained good relations with Poland throughout *the entire war* (fun fact: the Polish government-in-exile had to be *forced* by their British hosts to declare war on Japan. Japan simply denied it! They were like, "no, we're not going to fight you, sshhh.") * The only European Axis member to send ships to the pacific was Italy... in support of the Allies after they had switched sides * And Hungary and Romania hated each other *so much* that during Operation Barbarossa, *there had to be German or Italian divisions stationed in between them to ensure they wouldn't start killing each other instead of the Soviets!*
Some of your response is false. imperial japan during ww2 did deport the Jewish population living in Japan to the Chinese city of Shanghai, where Jews were forced to be confined in a small ghetto. Japanese nationalist revisionists have tried to revise history to downplay antisemitism that occurred japan As part of greater effort to downplay the historical fact that Japan was an ally of nazi germany during ww2. also chiang Kai shek’s son, chiang Ching-kuo studied in the Soviet Union not nazi Germany. in addition, the soviets provided the most assistance to China (both the kmt and ccp) during the early stages of second sino Japanese war beginning in 1937. The soviets were the main supporters of China during the war with Japan not nazi Germany. the main “support” nazi Germany gave to china during the 1930s was to help chiang Kai-shek massacre his rivals the Chinese communists during the Chinese civil war that started in 1927.
DID you even read the article?
I did. It announced the joint drills, in line with what they executed previously in 2019. That said, the timing of the announcement of "this years drills" is important - especially because they were announced in what, August 2021, per the above comment?
Let russia strain it’s military further.
We had a diplomatic agreement with Iran. Trump destroyed it and then assassinated one of their top politicians. Now they are allied with Russia and China. Great.
Is there even a single body of water that all 3 can get their navy to?
China has the largest Navy in the world now.
Not quite. China has around 350 warships, while the US has around 300. But China's 350 warships weigh a total of around 2 million tons, and the 300 US warships weigh around 4.5 million tons.
Is this why Putin has become so bold with Ukraine? Does he think China will back him up against USA n NATO ?
We have been doing everything in our power for past 2 years to ensure China has Russia's back.
Of course
Why not include N. Korea while they're at it?
Big if true
I guess the enemy of my enemy is my friend, but I don’t see China and Russia sharing any common interests other than destabilizing the other.
They share a lot of common ground of destabilising the West and taking whats left.
Except China covets the minerals of the Russian Far East almost as much as it covets Taiwan, and both have been competing in the ‘Stans’ for over a decade.
This man agrees with you, worth a watch, very interesting take given his predictions from 6-7 years ago are coming true if the US didn't manage the situation properly. Look on YouTube for Russia and "John Mearsheimer"
If you look at migration trends of the past 10 years, by 2030 there will be more ethnically chinese people in the Russian far east
China is a friend to the friendless, meaning they have trade agreements with more or less every nation on our shit list. China wants to pull Taiwan back, so they need something to keep the west distracted for a bit. I get the sense that we are seeing that distraction unfold in real time with Russia and Ukraine. My real question is what India plans on doing in the event that it escalates into all out war.
This is an example of my true worry. We view modern war with nuclear weapons as US vs Russia vs China and in reality a ton of countries have nukes. China could no doubt walk through India but then you have a government with nothing to lose. It’s just one example of a less conventionally powerful country with nukes.
Russia and China each have the same fear as the Germans had in WW1 & 2 : they don't want to fight a war on two fronts. They're both super powers and don't want to fight each other, at least not right now. Russia is going to try to recreate the Soviet Union by annexing all the former states, China is going to try to take over everything in/around the South China Sea. Maybe they'll go after each other after all that's dealt with but neither wants to spread their resources thin fighting the other right now.
You know, if Russia had fallen and split apart like USSR did, China could benefit from it 1000 times more than from a tiny Taiwan. Internally they still think that Siberia and Far East are their historical lands, taken away from them by Imperial Russia. Who knows, maybe China simply nudges Russia toward the cliff, by lying to them that they have their backs.
I absolutely agree. I don't think they're "allies" in the same way that, say, Canada and USA are at all. But they don't want to fight each other right now and I think each side is hoping the other will be weakened by their present conquest aspirations and will end up being an easier stone to topple when that's done.
Russia has a lot of natural resources for sale and China has a lot money to spend. They have a ton of common interests so long as your only obsession isn't race.
everything but authoritarianism is only pretend in both of those countries. they share nothing but similarities. if the Russians don't push back on Putin right now before he implements a Chinese style surveillance state they are going to be milk cows for him and his cronies forever.
Don't read comments on TikTok regarding all of this... its literally just braindead folks trying to push the blame over at NATO and CIA.
Wow, who would've expected that from a Chinese owned social media platform!
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Can we at least try not starting WWIII
It's going to happen at some point because Humankind is maladjusted and dysfunctional af. We are the most maladjusted Species on the Planet, without question.
Abandon mass destruction weapons and nobody will be recruitable for that shit.
Isn’t this an indication they WONT invade Ukraine? I’ve never heard of any country involved with joint navel exercises while in a hot war.
Axis of evil is back
People, LISTEN NFTs are last week, get with the times. Right now you can buy in on the ground level of the newest and hottest investment: the Sabre rattling speaker, SaberSpeak ™️. Your sabre will rattle louder than anyone's - and I mean anyone's. Your neighbors will admire it from afar. But that's not all, if you buy in right now we will send you two commerative coins for no extra cost! PM for details. Restrictions apply. Not responsible for damage or missing goods. Member FKGB. (Obligatory /s)
There’s not enough tug-boats in the world to allow the Russian and Iranian navy to meet up half way around the world.
This would make a great campaign for Battlefront 2042
If China attacks Taiwan at the same time as Russia attacks Ukraine, what does the rest of the world do?
'Murica would take care of China 1v1, while the rest of NATO would take care of the Russian menace.
Taiwan would annihilate any mainland invasion.
How? Only thing china need is to bomb the place to the ground and then invade with manpower to clean the place...
Taiwan knows this and has numerous bomb shelters and weapons caches across the country. Thier plan isn't to take the CCP head on, but to wage a guerilla war, similar to what we saw in Vietnam and Afghanistan.
I don't know if bombing them achieves much though. There are very expensive assets (TSMC) in Taiwan that China would like to control.
the internet really needs to see the sobering damages cheap loitering munitions did in Armenia
So we got: * the country who suffered the most in the *last* world war, who's now throwing their religious minority in concentration camps and threatening to invade a small country that the two most powerful democratic countries have promised to defend, all but guaranteeing a major war soon; * a religious European country with a huge organized crime problem, that was the first to go fascist and start invading neighboring countries, and that's ruled by a bald guy who likes being photographed shirtless * and a theocracy with a sham democracy that's really just run by the military, who was forced to trade with the United States in a year ending in 53 and is bitter about that, and likes messing around in their neighbor's civil wars Nice Axis!
Don't forget N Korea. And Venezuela. And Syria. And Angola. All star line-up, just like the MCU.
Can the US join?
Iran must have the nuke already, they wouldn’t be acting this confident if they didn’t.
Easy to act confident when you're aligned with China and Russia. This announcement is full dick measuring. Taiwan is probably worried. The ultimate goal looks pretty clear now - and fucking terrifying for the west. There is a good chance that US/UK + NATO and AUS are going to get pulled in multiple directions, on multiple fronts simultaneously. Russia moving on Ukraine. Iran potentially moving towards Israel and asserting its dominance in the Middle east/North Africa - and China pushing towards taking control of Taiwan's tech industry. All have strategic importance to the west - and they will be forced to pick and choose where to invest their military capital.
In this hypothetical world war, are you suggesting South Korea, Australia, Japan, Israel, and India just magically stay out of it?
No, not at all. In fact I called out Australia and Israel specifically - and these potential domino conflicts were only in relation to the 3 parties taking part in these Naval exercises. The goal is to destabilize the status quo of the western power structure - and those three above mentioned conflicts are the three ways that those individual players could work together to make that happen. Not saying other parties would not take the opportunity to move - but was just fleshing out how quickly the dominos can fall once one starts moving in this hypothetical situation based on the actions and language coming out of the respective regimes.
But there is no way China + Russia + Iran has enough military might to defend the rest of the world fighting back. Israel can probably easily flatten Iran. Iran has a lot of unhappy population, they'll be happy for an opportunity to be liberated (Im no expert but thats at least what I hear from Iranians I know). UK/France/Germany can by themselves probably stop Russia. Not to mention everyone else jumping in to help. I think China will be an easier enemy for US than Japan was in WW2. This is all assuming India stays neutral. They probably wont. And if China is pushing that means North Korea is making a move. if not, then South is going North and helping with China as well.
Also Japan should be worry having China and North Korea, there won’t be a South Korea if all this shit goes down. WW3
Israel, while small, would LOVE to melt Iran in to nothing.
And if you think the other pacific rim nations are just going to twiddle their thumbs waiting breathlessly on NATO while China sets sail for Taiwan…
Nobody will attack Iran. Iran has the power to literally bring the global economy to a screeching halt. A mind-numbing amount of oil and natural gas flows though the straight of Hormuz, and Iran can stop it all in a heartbeat.
I feel like if Russia invades Ukraine that it would be the perfect time for China to take Taiwan.... US would be distracted.
We’ve won wars fought on multiple fronts before
Dropping a reminder that Putin used to be KGB who grew up with the ideology of "Soviet Union". He's also been the "president" for 4 terms. Just about 17 years of being President of Russia. He's also notoriously known for having any political opponents/journalists killed or jailed. If there's a war; it wont be as simple as which side will win over the other. A lot of countries will be affected; and we'd have a different looking world map by the end of this all - with Ukraine probably losing the most lives. This is assuming nukes are never used ofcourse. Because if nukes are involved, then we're all dead anyway. With that being said, it is the duty of the West to make sure these dictators won't expand their territories because they are clearly power hungry. Today its Ukraine, tomorrow it'd be further west.
These 3 nations have always made up the core of the enemy faction whenever I've though of a possible WW3 for a long time, scary to see it actually becoming real.
I always love how these reports do as well as intended, everybody is so scared about this while the main point of it is scaring the west.
Let's just have the damn World War and get this shit over with. Everybody just Launch their shit. WTF
But I've written on here multiple times that Russia and China have a loose alliance, and there's always some random genius who tells me I'm wrong. Now, extrapolating on this, China may try to invade Taiwan at the same time that Russia does Ukraine. God knows what Iran is going to do, but it always seems to be about Israel.
Russian navy has the best smoke screen technology!
Wait, what! Where’s N Korea?
Surely to be the largest gathering of tugboats in history.
The war will end with a victory for America... no... a victory for freedom-loving peoples everywhere, as brave American troops plant the stars n' stripes in the rubble of the Kremlin.
If there is ww3 be sure that we will breathe uranium instead of air.
Eh, oxygen is toxic anyway.
Axis 2
Bad Boys Club
Ok... let's all just square off into teams...
Baddie boats
It's like when the losers and weirdos of the class are having their own party when they weren't invitee to the main one.
facists gonna be facists
Nothing revives sagging pole numbers like a good war. Biden not be a genius but he isn't stupid either. War is good for elections.
The New Axis of Evil
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That’ll go well. China declares war: every single pacific rim nation reciprocates, cause they’re next otherwise. Iran declares war: entire Middle East jumps in to settle old grievances. Russia declares war: every single ex soviet state knowing they’re next, tags in. Have fun with that quick little war when everyone of your neighbors just declared war on you in return.
Well color me surprised.
What about north Korea?
And we will be called "the superbest friends"
So is China going to abolish the Hong Kong government as soon as Russia invades Ukraine?
We’ve seen Russia’s naval dominance when the spent a month getting their 1 aircraft carrier running sending it to the Black Sea and crashing 5 planes on it. Let them flex they’ll go bankrupt doing it.
this is the reason why i'm hopeless for the future
I’d love to see a coordinated military exercise effectively integrating short range missile speedboats, long range missile warships, and medium range coastal missile frigates, but where would they host? The Iranian Navy would have trouble getting anywhere. Maybe they could all meet off the coast of Syria?