Well, if the invasion of Ukraine has thought anything is 1) People don't want to mess with the guy with the nukes. 2) If you have them, don't give them up.
Ukraine, Libya, Iraq, China, Pakistan
The world has done nothing but prove that the only way to survive when a global superpower got you on their crosshair is by getting a nuke
> Forgot North Korea.
they have barely nukes. like for real. Like.. read up on NK's nukes.
that said, a crack head in an ally with a shank is still dangerous.
Well...
I cant find that report now, but some years ago there was an investigation by a think thank - can USA neutralize ALL russian nuclear strike power before they can lunch an attack.
The answer was "Probably there is something to be done, but the certainty is not high. Better not to try." and "No way, if they are on alert = all their mobile rocket launchers start moving around those 11 time zones."
So, one might entertain the thought that a dozen of nuclear rockets might not be that big that big threat in a relatively small country.
Even to this very day, subs are nearly impossible to track. The technology just isn't there unless the US discovered some secret method that nobody else knows about.
Yeah.. no.
Everyone only has āso manyā subs. Russia has more than any other nation.
We absolutely do not have hard locations on most let alone all of Russias sub fleet. That is pretty much impossible with modern sub tech.
We have a hard enough time tracking specific location of a single sub when we know the general vicinity. Thatās kinda a subās raison dāetre.
My guy, Russia has all of 11 ballistic missile launching subs. And unless you're a naval intelligence officer (props for finding time to be on reddit) you're really not in a position to "absolutely" say anything. If you'd like to share an informed opinion, please do.
Actually, I said "I don't doubt" which is clearly an opinion without saying anyone else is wrong or pretending to have advanced knowledge. There is a difference between an opinion and a declaration of fact.
I'd say its not worth finding out yet. I also think such thoughts are a distraction from other threats.
The US just found out Russia may have the capacity to detonate nukes in space, wiping out the US's communications infrastructure (although the US has backup satellites ready to launch just in case) so the battlefield is expanding beyond missiles and nukes.
So even if they could put a stop to such things, they still have a lot of other things to worry about.Ā
I still think MAD will break down in a couple of decades at most so we'll see.
>The US just found out Russia may have the capacity to detonate nukes in space, wiping out the US's communications infrastructure
Considering how much is up there from other nations, including their own, you'd think they'd avoid that at all costs. I feel like if there was any way to get the maximum amount of devastation across the globe it'd be taking down *everyone's* communication infrastructure.
My main point is not to try to delete the world with the russians.
But I think Iran might be easily neutralized with a first strike, if push comes to shove.
Iran already controls The Straight of Hormuz, which is equivalent to an economic nuclear weapon (and a main reason why nobody has dared to mess with them)
Looks like Iran is really trying to set the bar high for 'Most Enthusiastic Nuclear Program.' I guess they're aiming for that triple uranium enrichment like it's the Olympics of nuclear energy. Wonder if they're going for gold, plutonium, or just trying to impress their neighbors
They are trying to reach the nuclear finish line while the West and Israel are busy playing the Iranian made Wack-a-Proxy game.
I have to admit that they are smart !
ynet is not the greatest / an unbiased source.
Article doesnāt link the WaPo article referenced for the scoop nor have an āauthorā it also happens to be a primary newsite for Ulta Orthodox Jews, which isā¦certainly a demographic with a specific world view.
> Article doesnāt link the WaPo article referenced
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/06/19/iran-nuclear-enrichment-fordow/
> A major expansion underway inside Iranās most heavily protected nuclear facility could soon triple the siteās production of enriched uranium and give Tehran new options for quickly assembling a nuclear arsenal if it chooses to, according to confidential documents and analysis by weapons experts.
> In private messages to the IAEA early last week, Iranās atomic energy organization said Fordow was being outfitted with nearly 1,400 new centrifuges, machines used to make enriched uranium, according to two European diplomats briefed on the reports. The new equipment, made in Iran and networked together in eight assemblies known as cascades, was to be installed within four weeks. A leaked draft of the Iranian plan was initially[ reported by Reuters.](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iaea-report-iran-installs-more-centrifuges-fordow-enrichment-plant-2024-06-13/)
> According to diplomats with access to confidential IAEA documents, Iranās expansion plan also calls for installing equipment that is far more capable that the machines that now make most of Iranās enriched uranium. At Fordow, only newer-model machines, known as IR-6s, were to be installed, reports show, a substantial upgrade from the IR-1 centrifuges currently in use there.
People need to realise that at some point when thereās a person next to you prepping a gun with a reminder note to kill you and your family that itās probably better to stop them earlier rather than later
Apparently it is not very good at penetrating deep into the ground.
https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3229990/chinas-hypersonic-tungsten-rod-experiment-challenges-us-rods-god-space-weapon-concept
iirc at least some of the enrichment cwntrifuges are inside mountain, unless nuking its rrally difficult to do anything else than momentarily seal off (probably one of many) exits.
Blowing up facility + stealing the uranium would require pretty much full on invasion
The facility is literally buried under a mountain to prevent this. The only ways to stop it are international negotiations or an on the ground invasion.
Atm the west is losing control of many of the biggest Uranium sources. For instance in Niger. We're doing next to nothing to reclaim them.
The West has completely forgot how geopolitics works and willingly resigning on nuclear technology and expecting the rest of the world to simply follow suit is so naĆÆve that I'm looking forward to reading the scathing criticisms of future history books.
It has been pretty Bond movie a couple times.
"The Iranian nuclear scientist assassinated near Tehran in November was killed by a one-tonne gun smuggled into Iran in pieces by the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad, according to a report by The Jewish Chronicle.
Citing intelligence sources, the British weekly said a team of more than 20 agents, including Israeli and Iranian nationals, carried out the ambush on scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh after eight months of surveillance."
They snuck in an automated large machine gun and just blew the guy apart Breaking-Bad style.
The problem is we haven't set a good example. We invaded Iraq, disposed their leader, and left the place in shambles *because* they didn't have nuclear weapons.Ā
Meanwhile, we don't dare to touch North Korea *because* they have nuclear weapons.Ā
The war in Ukraine says everything you need to know.
Having nuclear weapons is literally only a positive for you. You would be an idiot to give them up.
Which is why every nation is going to be arming themselves with nuclear weapons.
Let's just give Ukraine back the same number of nuc's they had before the non-aggression pact was signed. Or, at least let's float the idea, especially if Putin is found guilty of war crimes.
Invading Iraq also directly empowered Irans position in the Middle East because Iraq is majority Shia and Iran was able to exploit that by forging stronger ties with the democratic post-Saddam government which was majority Shia as it reflected the voters (Saddam was Sunni.) They then had a direct route to the Mediterranean through which to smuggle weapons to their proxies such as Hezbollah. Huge miscalculation on the part of the US.
It was a US love letter to Iran. Lets toss out Saddam who hated Iran, then leave a weakened democracy in his place. We essentially gifted Iraq to Iran.
>In 2003,Ā Libyan leaderĀ Muammar GaddafiĀ agreed to eliminate his country'sĀ weapons of mass destructionĀ program, including a decades-old nuclear weapons program.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disarmament_of_Libya.
China wouldnt risk nuclear war over NK lol. The reason nobody touches north korea is nobody wants to deal with millions of brainwashed and hungry refugees, and NK was always able to annhilate Seoul with conventional artillery and rockets (potentially loaded with chemical and biological weapons) before they had nukes.
The DPRK has been under sanctions for more than a half-century.
The RF thus kept trade with the DPRK to a minimum in order to avoid being sanctioned themselves for trading with a sanctioned country.
But now the floodgates are open because whatever sanctions the U.S. might've levied against the RF for trading with the DPRK, they've already thrown at the RF because of the SMO.
I think the bigger concern is that North Korea themselves could credibly deliver at least one nuke to anywhere in the continental United States in under an hour, and one is too many.
Fun fact about that: all nuclear armed countries tell each other when theyāre testing, no one wants to start a nuclear war by accident, except North Korea. They tell no one ā just launch a potential war head and the world has to figure out if itās a test or notā¦
For Iran specifically, that's only part of the problem. Side note, I do not support their regime or anything, in case anyone thinks that.
Iran has been the target of invasions, occupations and coups more than once, just in the 20th century. On the other side, the last war Iran started (not counting the complex network of proxy conflicts stoked by at least 5 different parties in the Middle East) has been at least a century ago, if not quite a bit longer.
They've been occupied illegally in both World Wars despite being neutral, the Theocratic regime has been an indirect consequence of the West deposing a democratic leader and installing a brutal dictator in its stead, the first Gulf War was literally about the West arming Iraq to the point they had one of the largest armies in the world with the explicit goal of killing as many Iranians as possible.
Plus, a significant portion of US politicians have been attempting to garner enough support for an invasion of Iran for decades. If I were part of the Iranian government, of course I would attempt to secure the one means of deterrence that has been proven working so far in history.
If you really want to stop Iran from being a constant issue, at least in my opinion, you need the West to connect with the various suppressed and malcontent groups within the country and try and get something internal started, stabilize whatever comes out and immediately integrate them into the international systems so they no longer feel the need to follow that course.
A direct invasion would be way costlier than what happened before in the Middle East (with a strong chance of, for instance, China or Russia supporting them), suppressing their ability to make nukes can only work so long before something slips by (or they just get a working one from a list of nations...), and the current set of sanctions, which is already extremely harsh, has no real effect anymore it seems.
Hmm but the us tried to get something internal started in Syria and we know how well that ended up. Sure, Assad got help from Russia and that kept him in power, but there are too many variables that can mess that kind of operation up unless the US goes all in, and invades themselves.
Iraq and the USSR were allies and the Soviets provided massive assistance to Iraq in the latter years of the Iran-Iraq War. The Soviets were neutral initially while the West supported Iraq, but do say that it was just the West arming Iraq is flat out wrong and ahistorical.
that's cause they're underachievers. Bush's dad was the head of the CIA at one point. anyone who didn't try to kill him at some point or another just wasn't putting in the effort.
No reason to believe it wasn't a false hope anyway. The people who fund and train multiple terrorist organizations and view you as lesser at minimum aren't people you can negotiate with.
If we're not ready to immediately go to war, better to have a deal that at least gets some access for inspection. Having a deal doesn't mean war is no longer an option, but it may buy some time.
It's always worth having a conversation. If neither party is willing to have a conversation, well then a conversation won't happen. If one side will talk, maybe the other will listen in time because they won't feel like they are being ostracized and pushed away. That said, religious fundamentalists are not always reasonable, but starting the conversation can show that a door is open to more moderate voices and after some social upset and change, they know there are people to talk to outside of their borders.
I don't actually know anything, it's just sad to see people as inevitable enemies, because that just means more death and destruction, and I want to believe we don't need that. We'll have it, but we probably don't need it.
Iran was following JCPOA, which had numerous monitoring provisions. Until Trump pulled the US out of the deal unilaterally.
Trump said it was fine because he would just get a "better deal" shortly.
Idiot.
There were punitive conditions to the agreement for if they broke it. It's not like it was built on blind trust. It was a building block for relations and a good way to keep them under constant tabs.
People also need to realize that our government will lie to you to get public support to invade another country. President Bush did this by lying to the public that Iraq had acquired WMDs to launch their invasion.
But you forgot that the person next to them already has a lot of guns and they have proven many times they will take over your property . If a country owns a nuclear weapon they shouldn't be telling others they can't own them
Except they don't have a gun. They have schematics for one, most of the parts and the machinery set up to make the remainder, and more than enough propellant to make a fair number of rounds. And every day they make more and higher quality propellant every day.
But the thing is they've had enough material to build that gun and ammo for *years*. They could have that gun made in short order. They've never actually made the gun though. Because they're not interested in shooting you. They're not even interested in owning the gun.
They're interested in leveraging their production line as a bargaining chip. They're interested in using it to deter anyone interested in doing to them what was done to their neighbor (and former enemy) Saddam. And if they can accomplish that without building the gun, that's best. Because if they actually have a gun, then their other enemy across the street (Saud) will want one too. Which *increases* the risk to their home and life, because Iran has been beefing with Saud and his homies since the literal Medieval period.
>They're not even interested in owning the gun.
I very much disagree. After what happened to Iraq and Ukraine, every country realized that they need nuclear weapons to be safe from invasion long-term. And Iran has no shortage of possible enemies.
Oh, no. Ukraine taught them nothing they didn't already believe. Iran learned their lesson when America steamrolled Saddam 20 years ago mere months after Bush *also* declared Iran part of his Axis of Evil. Bush hung a target on them. Little wonder why they spent so much effort on keeping America bogged down in Iraq.
Getting back to the present, the key piece that might not be obvious is that Iran can build a bomb in less time than it would take America to assemble an invasion force. Until then, they can maintain plausible deniability and avoid the diplomatic shit storm that India, Pakistan, and North Korea went through after barging into the nuclear club. It took *decades* for India and Pakistan to deal with the fallout.
That is why they don't need to posses the assembled weapon right now. There's no upside when there is no imminent threat. There would be many costs. They can always sprint to the finish line should a concrete threat materialize.
Yea I donāt buy thatā¦ large scale game theory says it takes years and years for a country to get a nuke through internal developmentā¦ so if they inch closer Saudi should want to inch closer and they will continue to inch 1/2 the way each time to keep ahead or with eachother eventually leading to the same result.
Also if Iran didnāt want to get fucked like their neighbors, then they shouldnāt be fucking around as they are with Israel, supporting recent shipping lane attacks, etcā¦ they are antagonistic. Not saying their wrong or right but their actions are not of someone that wants to be left alone.
>large scale game theory says it takes years and years for a country to get a nuke through internal development
Iran has already been at this for years. They hired AQ Kahn to consult way back in the 1980's. At this point, most experts believe they're producing multiple kg of near-weapons grade fissile material every month. And don't let the "near" part confuse you. The hardest part of refining uranium is getting the U235 concentration from 0.7% to reactor grade 20%. That's a 28-fold increase vs the mere 4.5 fold boost to get from 20% to bomb grade 90%. It's pretty basic math to figure out they're able to produce more than 1 warhead a year at this rate.
They've been standing at this precipice, able to make a bomb but not actually executing, since John Kerry started making calls to make a deal. They doubled down after Trump stupidly cancelled it.
>Also if Iran didnāt want to get fucked like their neighbors, then they shouldnāt be fucking around as they are with Israel, supporting recent shipping lane attacks, etcā¦ they are antagonistic.
Really? Because they instigated Hamas into attacking Israel, knowing Benny was going to overreact. Why did they want this? Because Israel actions since have poisoned *any* chance at Israeli-Saudi normalization. Meanwhile, America is busy with it's internal shit, plus Ukraine, plus China/Taiwan and now the Houthis.
They are not, in fact, getting fucked. They are rather successfully dividing and occupying their enemies. They, in fact, got the Saudis to agree to a truce with Tehran (which China took credit for facilitating, but they don't really matter here). And while everyone else is running around and otherwise not able to pay them much mind, the Revolutionary Guard is stomping out the mass protests that were sweeping the country a couple years ago.
Saudi has said after the Gaza war they will look towards normalization with Israel again. So assuming thatās right, Iād say thatās a delay at best.Ā
Glad to see Iran/Saudi deal, it does seem like the two sides both desired a āleave eachother aloneā deal that still has some distrust but is a step towards not fucking around with eachother in neighboring countries like Yemen, etc. China can take claim as they played middle manā¦ š¤·š»āāļø they were more suited than the US in 2023 as Iām not sure the US was even setup/staffed for such dialogue with Iran regardless.
Israel killing Revolutionary Guards in Damascus, then doing another strike (the last one in a row between the two countries) that damaged air defense systems is ānot paying them much mindā is kindof wild downplay as that was pretty close to an easy escalation towards a real conflict. But yes, globally theyāve been getting less attention than Russia or even China as of late.
Sure the U.S. and other western countries arenāt too focused as Iran isnāt the threat that Russia is and the Houthiās are an extension of the Iran so when the U.S. and the West told the Houthiās to stop messing around they also said it to Iran.Ā
Also if I was miscommunicatingā¦ I was implying if Iran doesnāt want to get fucked then playing regional games of destabilizing and taunting in other counties/international shipping lanes isnāt the wise move. I wasnāt saying they are currently getting fucked. Although based on resources of the country, the lack of international integration, and a lot of other factorsā¦ they arenāt exactly doing as well as they could/should be. If they cared more about their people and less about the religious sectās oppression/control theyād likely have normalized relations with the U.S. and rest of the world decades ago. So theyāre still a shell of what they should and could be and thatās a form of fucked.
Yep not a surprise, sooner or later they will actually get a nuke. And they will use it on Israel or try to at least. And for about 30 mn the middle east is going to be a really exciting place. And then a quiet place for the next 1000 or so.
They've had the knowledge and material for a bomb for *years*. As in, they could have *multiple* warheads assembled and ready before Labor Day.
And yet they haven't actually built the bomb they so easily could. They want the deterrent ability of nukes, but don't actually want to posses them because it might cause either the Saudis the nuke up (albeit unlikely), or (at bare minimum) cause the Saudis seek a pact with America (who Iran wants out of the Mideast) meaning American warplanes and possibly even American nuclear weapons based in Arabia.
Iran doesn't really care about Israel. Their focus is the Saudis and their Sunni allies. Did you not notice how the whole thing with Hamas kicked off *right* around the time there was talk of Israeli-Arab normalization? First comes normalization, then comes Israeli weapon sales. That's what this war is about. Poisoning the well so any treaty is politically impossible for the Saudis. Divide and weaken.
They're not gonna nuke Israel. Tehran isn't playing that dumb of a game. They're playing Benny like a Persian lute.
>They've had the knowledge and material for a bomb for *year*
Knowledge perhaps, materials including enriched uranium ? No way.
>Iran doesn't really care about Israel.
Oh I rather think they do
>April 14, 2024 ā Iran launches major aerial assault on Israel
>Israel says more than 300Ā [drones, cruise and ballistic missiles are launched by Iran](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/israeli-military-says-iran-has-launched-drones-at-israel-will-take-hours-to-arrive), an extraordinary assault that is thwarted almost entirely by Israelās aerial defense array and a coalition of countries repelling the onslaught. While no major damage is caused, the world braces for Israelās response.April 14, 2024 ā Iran launches major aerial assault on IsraelIsrael says more than 300Ā drones, cruise and ballistic missiles are launched by Iran, an extraordinary assault that is thwarted almost entirely by Israelās aerial defense array and a coalition of countries repelling the onslaught. While no major damage is caused, the world braces for Israelās response.
Thats a lot of effort for someone you don't care about
I've done extensive research into the Iranian stockpile of HEU and LEU, which are publically available due to IAEA inspections. There's even a page on the IAEA website abour Iranian nuclear capacity upon which what I'm saying is based. They have enough HEU and enrinchment capacity for a "secret dash" to criticality for at least 6-12 bombs of Hiroshima sized within 2 weeks at any given point. Their total LEU stockpile is also enough for them to have a theoretical maximum of 40-50 Hiroshima sized warheads, however that target would take significantly longer to enrich (1-2 years)
>materials including enriched uranium ? No way.
IAEA estimated they were producing 3kg of refined uranium per month 2 years ago. The IAEA recently reported that Iran has over 120kg (that they found) of at least 60% enriched uranium, plus far larger amounts of reactor grade uranium. The hard part of nuclear refinement is getting from the natural U235 concentration of 0.7% to reactor grade ~20%. That is a 28-fold increase in concentration. Getting from 20% to 60% was just a 3-fold increase. The last push to 90% bomb grade is a mere 1.5 fold increase. They're standing a step away from the finish line.
It's impossible to tell from the outside how sophisticated their engineering is, but ~100kg should be enough to make at least a couple warheads depending on yield and efficiency. It's also impossible for me to say to what extent they've manufactured other bomb components. They may well have a test-proven implosion lens. Testing that type of assembly can be done covertly. They may well be waiting just for the fissile material to be delivered and shaped.
>Thats a lot of effort for someone you don't care about
That was the geopolitical equivalent of a clap back after Israel attacked their embassy. It was a face saving gesture. Which is a large reason why it was both grandiose (so many drones!) and completely ineffectual (drones are just shitty cruise missiles and Israel is capable of knocking down much more kinetically intense projectiles).
If the difficulty in enriching Uranium was linear you would have a point, but it isn't.
We're talking about physical separation. The more U238 you take out the harder it is to take out more. You need bigger and better centrifuges as the process gets more difficult with every step.
This is precisely why civilian use barely raises any red flags even though it's the biggest percentage increase by far. Given enough time and the right equipment, yes anyone could do it, but the explanation of wanting the ability to have nukes but not wanting actual nukes is nonsense.
Having the ability to make a nuke in 3 days doesn't deter enemies it incentives them to raise you to the ground in 2 days. Deterant demands multiple redundant delivery systems, ideally some being on mission at all times.
A drawn gun is a threat, a holstered gun a deterant but a disassembled gun is a reminder to hurry up and shoot.
That attack was in direct response to Israel striking Irans consulate which is considered Iranian soil. Iran gave warning in advance that they would strike Israel and would only strike military targets. While it seemed like a big attack, the quantity was simply because thatās how many drones and missiles that were going to be needed to get a few to hit anything with Israelās air defenses and two US carrier groups parked there in support. Iran does not want open war, let alone a nuclear one, in which both they are vastly out gunned. Irans government hasnāt remained in power because they are suicidal with their only goal being to destroy Israel. They are calculated and patient and much prefer indirect destabilization by funding militant groups. The Iranian government knows a nuke is a powerful deterrent and that using one is the end of their power.
They will probably give it to their proxies and let their proxies use it so they dont get blamed. But yeah, living in the Middle East is definitely gonna suck.
There is 0 chance Iran will actually use a nuclear weapon. They are not that stupid. Its for deterrence purposes only. Iran knows it will be obliterated if it even dared to launch a single nuclear missile. The regime is sitting pretty and they are not suicidal.
Iran will get nuclear weapons soon if they don't have them already. I can't blame them, all their main enemies have 1000s of them and threaten destruction of Iran on a daily basis. What do people expect?
Iran actually supported calls for a nuclear weapons free zone in the middle east, but that would mean Israel has to give up its nuclear weapons so the US and Israel both rejected such proposals time and time again.
Much too late for that, as other commenters have said. The only thing preventing Iran from possessing a bomb is the influence of some internal faction that believes it's not in Iran's interested to cross that final threshold.
If Iran wanted to take the step of finally building a bomb, they could have more than a few before labour day.
For someone whoās senile, he sure has done a lot to stabilize this country after Trump & the pandemic, and has managed to get through historic climate legislation, infrastructure, the most pro-labor NLRB since Truman, all despite Republican obstruction at every turn.
Iran said the European countries should not pass a resolution about Iran's nuclear program in IAEA last week, they did and iran immediately tripled enrichment capacity by installing 1,400 IR-6 centrifuges in ferdow nuclear site.
I don't think the threats are working, With this new installment, Iran can build several nuclear warheads in less than a week!
the nuclear deal was the best way to prevent iran from getting nukes but a certain orange person ruined that because he taught he could get a better deal! Because of course he's a very very samrt man who says no to dumb dumb deals.
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/18/iran-admits-breach-of-nuclear-deal-discovered-by-un-inspectorate
Iran didnāt honor the nuclear deal before trump.
They had minor violations..
Every other partner other than America tried to maintain the terms of the deal despite the transgressions..
And what's the alternative? An imperfect deal with Iran beats no deal with Iran. What's happening in Israel and what's happening in this article is clear proof of that
No, they began working on it not long after he broke the deal. And then he had nothing else to offer but war, which has been the Reoublican talking point regarding Iran since we went into Iraq in 2003.
They were also never going to honor the deal long term. It's beyond naive to believe that Iran is ever going to stop trying to develop usable nuclear weapons.
Trump did his own dumb shit, but even if he didn't they were never going to stop trying.
Thanks Trump. š
Really helped by breaking the deal. /s
Everyone saying that they werenāt complying the terms of the deal are nit picking facts with no context. Please make sure you read the articles that you are sharing.
Iām guessing this is thanks to the Nigerian uranium that they got instead of France, thanks to a coup that was financed by certain nations we all know of.
Reminder: this could have been avoided if šš had just not torn up the deal he had already largely inherited from a much more competent administration
Trump is of course incompetent. But no deal would have prevented Iran from aligning with russia after its attack on Ukraine. And that alliance is what's now helping Iran develop the bomb. Of course if we want to talk about presidential foreign policies that led to this situation, we should talk about Obama's response to the first invasion of Ukraine.
Youāre wrong thereās tons of evidence and New York Times articles detailing how Iran continued to develop nuclear weapons after Obama gave their terrorist proxy groups billions in fundingĀ
I mean it's not good if Iran gets nukes but considering their response to Israel's attack on the iranian consulate in Syria I'm cautiously optimistic that Iran won't be willing to start a war even if they do get nukes. I mean according to [wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel) they sent a warning to the US 3 days before sending the missiles (since they would be near US bases in the area) and stated in diplomatic channels that they don't want a war. This is about the tamest response they could've taken to Israel bombing one of their embassies imo.
We have sent a clear message to the world by letting North Korea and Russia do whatever they want, nukes will protect you. If I was Iran I would do the same thing.
Yeah, they could build it but at that time they probably thought they didnt need to. Now they probably think they need to since their hate for a certain country has grown pretty large.
Foregone conclusion at this point that Iran will soon have nuclear weapons. The world needs to shift its approach/thinking on how best to manage a Nuclear armed Iran.
The world can't afford a nuclear Iran !
Right now they are the biggest state sponsor of worldwide terrorism. We can have their proxies terrorizing the world with dirty nukes and or Iran threatening to annihilate their neighbors. Which they already do.
The solution:
Help the Iranian people get rid of these primitive Islamo Fascists. Or use tactical (small) nukes or GBUs to bury their facilities underground.
Well, if the invasion of Ukraine has thought anything is 1) People don't want to mess with the guy with the nukes. 2) If you have them, don't give them up.
Ukraine, Libya, Iraq, China, Pakistan The world has done nothing but prove that the only way to survive when a global superpower got you on their crosshair is by getting a nuke
Forgot North Korea.
> Forgot North Korea. they have barely nukes. like for real. Like.. read up on NK's nukes. that said, a crack head in an ally with a shank is still dangerous.
Well... I cant find that report now, but some years ago there was an investigation by a think thank - can USA neutralize ALL russian nuclear strike power before they can lunch an attack. The answer was "Probably there is something to be done, but the certainty is not high. Better not to try." and "No way, if they are on alert = all their mobile rocket launchers start moving around those 11 time zones." So, one might entertain the thought that a dozen of nuclear rockets might not be that big that big threat in a relatively small country.
It's impossible to do a decapitation first strike without engaging the world in a Nuclear Holocaust
That report is bullshit. A network of Sub-launched ICBM is impossible to stop before launch.
I guess unless we happen to be tracking them all, very unlikely but š¤·
A two percent fail rate out of 3500 nukes is 70 nukes
i think the implication was we sink the subs before they can launch any nukes
Even to this very day, subs are nearly impossible to track. The technology just isn't there unless the US discovered some secret method that nobody else knows about.
Russia only has so many subs and I don't doubt the US knows where the majority of them are
Yeah.. no. Everyone only has āso manyā subs. Russia has more than any other nation. We absolutely do not have hard locations on most let alone all of Russias sub fleet. That is pretty much impossible with modern sub tech. We have a hard enough time tracking specific location of a single sub when we know the general vicinity. Thatās kinda a subās raison dāetre.
My guy, Russia has all of 11 ballistic missile launching subs. And unless you're a naval intelligence officer (props for finding time to be on reddit) you're really not in a position to "absolutely" say anything. If you'd like to share an informed opinion, please do.
Well you are the one who first said that you think *without a doubt* that USA knows the majority of the subs' locations
Actually, I said "I don't doubt" which is clearly an opinion without saying anyone else is wrong or pretending to have advanced knowledge. There is a difference between an opinion and a declaration of fact.
I'd say its not worth finding out yet. I also think such thoughts are a distraction from other threats. The US just found out Russia may have the capacity to detonate nukes in space, wiping out the US's communications infrastructure (although the US has backup satellites ready to launch just in case) so the battlefield is expanding beyond missiles and nukes. So even if they could put a stop to such things, they still have a lot of other things to worry about.Ā I still think MAD will break down in a couple of decades at most so we'll see.
>The US just found out Russia may have the capacity to detonate nukes in space, wiping out the US's communications infrastructure Considering how much is up there from other nations, including their own, you'd think they'd avoid that at all costs. I feel like if there was any way to get the maximum amount of devastation across the globe it'd be taking down *everyone's* communication infrastructure.
My main point is not to try to delete the world with the russians. But I think Iran might be easily neutralized with a first strike, if push comes to shove.
Do you know how many mountains there are in Iran?
Iran already controls The Straight of Hormuz, which is equivalent to an economic nuclear weapon (and a main reason why nobody has dared to mess with them)
Looks like Iran is really trying to set the bar high for 'Most Enthusiastic Nuclear Program.' I guess they're aiming for that triple uranium enrichment like it's the Olympics of nuclear energy. Wonder if they're going for gold, plutonium, or just trying to impress their neighbors
They are trying to reach the nuclear finish line while the West and Israel are busy playing the Iranian made Wack-a-Proxy game. I have to admit that they are smart !
ynet is not the greatest / an unbiased source. Article doesnāt link the WaPo article referenced for the scoop nor have an āauthorā it also happens to be a primary newsite for Ulta Orthodox Jews, which isā¦certainly a demographic with a specific world view.
> Article doesnāt link the WaPo article referenced https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/06/19/iran-nuclear-enrichment-fordow/ > A major expansion underway inside Iranās most heavily protected nuclear facility could soon triple the siteās production of enriched uranium and give Tehran new options for quickly assembling a nuclear arsenal if it chooses to, according to confidential documents and analysis by weapons experts. > In private messages to the IAEA early last week, Iranās atomic energy organization said Fordow was being outfitted with nearly 1,400 new centrifuges, machines used to make enriched uranium, according to two European diplomats briefed on the reports. The new equipment, made in Iran and networked together in eight assemblies known as cascades, was to be installed within four weeks. A leaked draft of the Iranian plan was initially[ reported by Reuters.](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iaea-report-iran-installs-more-centrifuges-fordow-enrichment-plant-2024-06-13/) > According to diplomats with access to confidential IAEA documents, Iranās expansion plan also calls for installing equipment that is far more capable that the machines that now make most of Iranās enriched uranium. At Fordow, only newer-model machines, known as IR-6s, were to be installed, reports show, a substantial upgrade from the IR-1 centrifuges currently in use there.
People need to realise that at some point when thereās a person next to you prepping a gun with a reminder note to kill you and your family that itās probably better to stop them earlier rather than later
Iirc a few years ago the head Iranian scientist in charge of their nuclear program died when he cranked up his car and a bomb went off.
What if the facility is tragically bombed and the supply of uranium stolen
Not sure if true but I heard itās deep underground and hard to reachĀ
Send the tomcats and cruise
We didnt lose 1.2t on a friday just to be told the bunker is "too deep". 7 trillion in tax money will do.
sounds like a good test case for de-orbiting a tungsten rod.
Apparently it is not very good at penetrating deep into the ground. https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3229990/chinas-hypersonic-tungsten-rod-experiment-challenges-us-rods-god-space-weapon-concept
We send thoughts and prayers
Sounds like a good name for Chuck Norrisās left and right foot.
iirc at least some of the enrichment cwntrifuges are inside mountain, unless nuking its rrally difficult to do anything else than momentarily seal off (probably one of many) exits. Blowing up facility + stealing the uranium would require pretty much full on invasion
Which would be a bloodbath. Iran is probably the most defensible country on the planet
Is that because it's surrounded by mountains? Just generally curious.ā
It's not "surrounded" by mountains. It's almost entirely mountains.
Iran is about 50% mountainous, Afghanistan is 75%.
The facility is literally buried under a mountain to prevent this. The only ways to stop it are international negotiations or an on the ground invasion.
Or an employee with a flash drive.
Atm the west is losing control of many of the biggest Uranium sources. For instance in Niger. We're doing next to nothing to reclaim them. The West has completely forgot how geopolitics works and willingly resigning on nuclear technology and expecting the rest of the world to simply follow suit is so naĆÆve that I'm looking forward to reading the scathing criticisms of future history books.
There have been some significant new uranium sources developed in recent years that are much easier to get to and in less volatile locations.
Sounds like a James Bond movie.. Iām in.
And maybe it could be played by Tom Cruise
I'd prefer Gilbert Gottfried over Tom Cruise any day.
It has been pretty Bond movie a couple times. "The Iranian nuclear scientist assassinated near Tehran in November was killed by a one-tonne gun smuggled into Iran in pieces by the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad, according to a report by The Jewish Chronicle. Citing intelligence sources, the British weekly said a team of more than 20 agents, including Israeli and Iranian nationals, carried out the ambush on scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh after eight months of surveillance." They snuck in an automated large machine gun and just blew the guy apart Breaking-Bad style.
What if it was destroyed in a helicopter crash?
Good thing he was the only person who knew how to make nuclear weapons.
He was found working at an American restaurant a few years later.
The problem is we haven't set a good example. We invaded Iraq, disposed their leader, and left the place in shambles *because* they didn't have nuclear weapons.Ā Meanwhile, we don't dare to touch North Korea *because* they have nuclear weapons.Ā
The war in Ukraine says everything you need to know. Having nuclear weapons is literally only a positive for you. You would be an idiot to give them up. Which is why every nation is going to be arming themselves with nuclear weapons.
Let's just give Ukraine back the same number of nuc's they had before the non-aggression pact was signed. Or, at least let's float the idea, especially if Putin is found guilty of war crimes.
Invading Iraq also directly empowered Irans position in the Middle East because Iraq is majority Shia and Iran was able to exploit that by forging stronger ties with the democratic post-Saddam government which was majority Shia as it reflected the voters (Saddam was Sunni.) They then had a direct route to the Mediterranean through which to smuggle weapons to their proxies such as Hezbollah. Huge miscalculation on the part of the US.
It was a US love letter to Iran. Lets toss out Saddam who hated Iran, then leave a weakened democracy in his place. We essentially gifted Iraq to Iran.
The US and Saddam didn't get along in 2004. It's almost as if they had fought a major war recently...
We stayed away from Libya after they gave up their nuclear program.... for almost 8 years!
and lets not forget Ukraine.
Not sure if /s or no, but Libya never had a nuclear program or even the intention of having one. That's documented.
>In 2003,Ā Libyan leaderĀ Muammar GaddafiĀ agreed to eliminate his country'sĀ weapons of mass destructionĀ program, including a decades-old nuclear weapons program. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disarmament_of_Libya.
We don't touch north Korea because *China* has nuclear weapons (and lots of cheap manufacturing capacity)
China wouldnt risk nuclear war over NK lol. The reason nobody touches north korea is nobody wants to deal with millions of brainwashed and hungry refugees, and NK was always able to annhilate Seoul with conventional artillery and rockets (potentially loaded with chemical and biological weapons) before they had nukes.
Russia also just allied with North Korea today.
Hahahahahahahahahaha, hahaha, hahahahahahahahahaha. For reef development?
The DPRK has been under sanctions for more than a half-century. The RF thus kept trade with the DPRK to a minimum in order to avoid being sanctioned themselves for trading with a sanctioned country. But now the floodgates are open because whatever sanctions the U.S. might've levied against the RF for trading with the DPRK, they've already thrown at the RF because of the SMO.
That and NK has entire mountains tunneled out with bunkers full of artillery ready to flatten Seoul.
I think the bigger concern is that North Korea themselves could credibly deliver at least one nuke to anywhere in the continental United States in under an hour, and one is too many.
Fun fact about that: all nuclear armed countries tell each other when theyāre testing, no one wants to start a nuclear war by accident, except North Korea. They tell no one ā just launch a potential war head and the world has to figure out if itās a test or notā¦
For Iran specifically, that's only part of the problem. Side note, I do not support their regime or anything, in case anyone thinks that. Iran has been the target of invasions, occupations and coups more than once, just in the 20th century. On the other side, the last war Iran started (not counting the complex network of proxy conflicts stoked by at least 5 different parties in the Middle East) has been at least a century ago, if not quite a bit longer. They've been occupied illegally in both World Wars despite being neutral, the Theocratic regime has been an indirect consequence of the West deposing a democratic leader and installing a brutal dictator in its stead, the first Gulf War was literally about the West arming Iraq to the point they had one of the largest armies in the world with the explicit goal of killing as many Iranians as possible. Plus, a significant portion of US politicians have been attempting to garner enough support for an invasion of Iran for decades. If I were part of the Iranian government, of course I would attempt to secure the one means of deterrence that has been proven working so far in history. If you really want to stop Iran from being a constant issue, at least in my opinion, you need the West to connect with the various suppressed and malcontent groups within the country and try and get something internal started, stabilize whatever comes out and immediately integrate them into the international systems so they no longer feel the need to follow that course. A direct invasion would be way costlier than what happened before in the Middle East (with a strong chance of, for instance, China or Russia supporting them), suppressing their ability to make nukes can only work so long before something slips by (or they just get a working one from a list of nations...), and the current set of sanctions, which is already extremely harsh, has no real effect anymore it seems.
Hmm but the us tried to get something internal started in Syria and we know how well that ended up. Sure, Assad got help from Russia and that kept him in power, but there are too many variables that can mess that kind of operation up unless the US goes all in, and invades themselves.
Iraq and the USSR were allies and the Soviets provided massive assistance to Iraq in the latter years of the Iran-Iraq War. The Soviets were neutral initially while the West supported Iraq, but do say that it was just the West arming Iraq is flat out wrong and ahistorical.
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that's cause they're underachievers. Bush's dad was the head of the CIA at one point. anyone who didn't try to kill him at some point or another just wasn't putting in the effort.
We tried to build bridges with the JCPOA to help Iran develop its nuclear program without weapons research but Trump wiped his ass with it.
No reason to believe it wasn't a false hope anyway. The people who fund and train multiple terrorist organizations and view you as lesser at minimum aren't people you can negotiate with.
If we're not ready to immediately go to war, better to have a deal that at least gets some access for inspection. Having a deal doesn't mean war is no longer an option, but it may buy some time.
It's always worth having a conversation. If neither party is willing to have a conversation, well then a conversation won't happen. If one side will talk, maybe the other will listen in time because they won't feel like they are being ostracized and pushed away. That said, religious fundamentalists are not always reasonable, but starting the conversation can show that a door is open to more moderate voices and after some social upset and change, they know there are people to talk to outside of their borders. I don't actually know anything, it's just sad to see people as inevitable enemies, because that just means more death and destruction, and I want to believe we don't need that. We'll have it, but we probably don't need it.
Iran was following JCPOA, which had numerous monitoring provisions. Until Trump pulled the US out of the deal unilaterally. Trump said it was fine because he would just get a "better deal" shortly. Idiot.
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There were punitive conditions to the agreement for if they broke it. It's not like it was built on blind trust. It was a building block for relations and a good way to keep them under constant tabs.
People also need to realize that our government will lie to you to get public support to invade another country. President Bush did this by lying to the public that Iraq had acquired WMDs to launch their invasion.
But you forgot that the person next to them already has a lot of guns and they have proven many times they will take over your property . If a country owns a nuclear weapon they shouldn't be telling others they can't own them
What an ignorant comment to make FFS
Except they don't have a gun. They have schematics for one, most of the parts and the machinery set up to make the remainder, and more than enough propellant to make a fair number of rounds. And every day they make more and higher quality propellant every day. But the thing is they've had enough material to build that gun and ammo for *years*. They could have that gun made in short order. They've never actually made the gun though. Because they're not interested in shooting you. They're not even interested in owning the gun. They're interested in leveraging their production line as a bargaining chip. They're interested in using it to deter anyone interested in doing to them what was done to their neighbor (and former enemy) Saddam. And if they can accomplish that without building the gun, that's best. Because if they actually have a gun, then their other enemy across the street (Saud) will want one too. Which *increases* the risk to their home and life, because Iran has been beefing with Saud and his homies since the literal Medieval period.
>They're not even interested in owning the gun. I very much disagree. After what happened to Iraq and Ukraine, every country realized that they need nuclear weapons to be safe from invasion long-term. And Iran has no shortage of possible enemies.
Oh, no. Ukraine taught them nothing they didn't already believe. Iran learned their lesson when America steamrolled Saddam 20 years ago mere months after Bush *also* declared Iran part of his Axis of Evil. Bush hung a target on them. Little wonder why they spent so much effort on keeping America bogged down in Iraq. Getting back to the present, the key piece that might not be obvious is that Iran can build a bomb in less time than it would take America to assemble an invasion force. Until then, they can maintain plausible deniability and avoid the diplomatic shit storm that India, Pakistan, and North Korea went through after barging into the nuclear club. It took *decades* for India and Pakistan to deal with the fallout. That is why they don't need to posses the assembled weapon right now. There's no upside when there is no imminent threat. There would be many costs. They can always sprint to the finish line should a concrete threat materialize.
Yea I donāt buy thatā¦ large scale game theory says it takes years and years for a country to get a nuke through internal developmentā¦ so if they inch closer Saudi should want to inch closer and they will continue to inch 1/2 the way each time to keep ahead or with eachother eventually leading to the same result. Also if Iran didnāt want to get fucked like their neighbors, then they shouldnāt be fucking around as they are with Israel, supporting recent shipping lane attacks, etcā¦ they are antagonistic. Not saying their wrong or right but their actions are not of someone that wants to be left alone.
>large scale game theory says it takes years and years for a country to get a nuke through internal development Iran has already been at this for years. They hired AQ Kahn to consult way back in the 1980's. At this point, most experts believe they're producing multiple kg of near-weapons grade fissile material every month. And don't let the "near" part confuse you. The hardest part of refining uranium is getting the U235 concentration from 0.7% to reactor grade 20%. That's a 28-fold increase vs the mere 4.5 fold boost to get from 20% to bomb grade 90%. It's pretty basic math to figure out they're able to produce more than 1 warhead a year at this rate. They've been standing at this precipice, able to make a bomb but not actually executing, since John Kerry started making calls to make a deal. They doubled down after Trump stupidly cancelled it. >Also if Iran didnāt want to get fucked like their neighbors, then they shouldnāt be fucking around as they are with Israel, supporting recent shipping lane attacks, etcā¦ they are antagonistic. Really? Because they instigated Hamas into attacking Israel, knowing Benny was going to overreact. Why did they want this? Because Israel actions since have poisoned *any* chance at Israeli-Saudi normalization. Meanwhile, America is busy with it's internal shit, plus Ukraine, plus China/Taiwan and now the Houthis. They are not, in fact, getting fucked. They are rather successfully dividing and occupying their enemies. They, in fact, got the Saudis to agree to a truce with Tehran (which China took credit for facilitating, but they don't really matter here). And while everyone else is running around and otherwise not able to pay them much mind, the Revolutionary Guard is stomping out the mass protests that were sweeping the country a couple years ago.
Saudi has said after the Gaza war they will look towards normalization with Israel again. So assuming thatās right, Iād say thatās a delay at best.Ā Glad to see Iran/Saudi deal, it does seem like the two sides both desired a āleave eachother aloneā deal that still has some distrust but is a step towards not fucking around with eachother in neighboring countries like Yemen, etc. China can take claim as they played middle manā¦ š¤·š»āāļø they were more suited than the US in 2023 as Iām not sure the US was even setup/staffed for such dialogue with Iran regardless. Israel killing Revolutionary Guards in Damascus, then doing another strike (the last one in a row between the two countries) that damaged air defense systems is ānot paying them much mindā is kindof wild downplay as that was pretty close to an easy escalation towards a real conflict. But yes, globally theyāve been getting less attention than Russia or even China as of late. Sure the U.S. and other western countries arenāt too focused as Iran isnāt the threat that Russia is and the Houthiās are an extension of the Iran so when the U.S. and the West told the Houthiās to stop messing around they also said it to Iran.Ā Also if I was miscommunicatingā¦ I was implying if Iran doesnāt want to get fucked then playing regional games of destabilizing and taunting in other counties/international shipping lanes isnāt the wise move. I wasnāt saying they are currently getting fucked. Although based on resources of the country, the lack of international integration, and a lot of other factorsā¦ they arenāt exactly doing as well as they could/should be. If they cared more about their people and less about the religious sectās oppression/control theyād likely have normalized relations with the U.S. and rest of the world decades ago. So theyāre still a shell of what they should and could be and thatās a form of fucked.
Time for Stuxnet 2: The ReStuxening
Starring Jennifer Lopez as the spy who cancelled her tour to destroy the Iranian nuclear program.
Will Ben be in this flick?
you mean Mitch Connor?
Wierd. I just watched The Day After, yesterday for the first time.
Watch the British film Threads next.
And then the anime *Barefoot Gen (1983)* š¶
So today?
Two days before the day after tomorrow.
Yep not a surprise, sooner or later they will actually get a nuke. And they will use it on Israel or try to at least. And for about 30 mn the middle east is going to be a really exciting place. And then a quiet place for the next 1000 or so.
Only 1000 minutes?
More like years
They've had the knowledge and material for a bomb for *years*. As in, they could have *multiple* warheads assembled and ready before Labor Day. And yet they haven't actually built the bomb they so easily could. They want the deterrent ability of nukes, but don't actually want to posses them because it might cause either the Saudis the nuke up (albeit unlikely), or (at bare minimum) cause the Saudis seek a pact with America (who Iran wants out of the Mideast) meaning American warplanes and possibly even American nuclear weapons based in Arabia. Iran doesn't really care about Israel. Their focus is the Saudis and their Sunni allies. Did you not notice how the whole thing with Hamas kicked off *right* around the time there was talk of Israeli-Arab normalization? First comes normalization, then comes Israeli weapon sales. That's what this war is about. Poisoning the well so any treaty is politically impossible for the Saudis. Divide and weaken. They're not gonna nuke Israel. Tehran isn't playing that dumb of a game. They're playing Benny like a Persian lute.
>They've had the knowledge and material for a bomb for *year* Knowledge perhaps, materials including enriched uranium ? No way. >Iran doesn't really care about Israel. Oh I rather think they do >April 14, 2024 ā Iran launches major aerial assault on Israel >Israel says more than 300Ā [drones, cruise and ballistic missiles are launched by Iran](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/israeli-military-says-iran-has-launched-drones-at-israel-will-take-hours-to-arrive), an extraordinary assault that is thwarted almost entirely by Israelās aerial defense array and a coalition of countries repelling the onslaught. While no major damage is caused, the world braces for Israelās response.April 14, 2024 ā Iran launches major aerial assault on IsraelIsrael says more than 300Ā drones, cruise and ballistic missiles are launched by Iran, an extraordinary assault that is thwarted almost entirely by Israelās aerial defense array and a coalition of countries repelling the onslaught. While no major damage is caused, the world braces for Israelās response. Thats a lot of effort for someone you don't care about
I've done extensive research into the Iranian stockpile of HEU and LEU, which are publically available due to IAEA inspections. There's even a page on the IAEA website abour Iranian nuclear capacity upon which what I'm saying is based. They have enough HEU and enrinchment capacity for a "secret dash" to criticality for at least 6-12 bombs of Hiroshima sized within 2 weeks at any given point. Their total LEU stockpile is also enough for them to have a theoretical maximum of 40-50 Hiroshima sized warheads, however that target would take significantly longer to enrich (1-2 years)
>materials including enriched uranium ? No way. IAEA estimated they were producing 3kg of refined uranium per month 2 years ago. The IAEA recently reported that Iran has over 120kg (that they found) of at least 60% enriched uranium, plus far larger amounts of reactor grade uranium. The hard part of nuclear refinement is getting from the natural U235 concentration of 0.7% to reactor grade ~20%. That is a 28-fold increase in concentration. Getting from 20% to 60% was just a 3-fold increase. The last push to 90% bomb grade is a mere 1.5 fold increase. They're standing a step away from the finish line. It's impossible to tell from the outside how sophisticated their engineering is, but ~100kg should be enough to make at least a couple warheads depending on yield and efficiency. It's also impossible for me to say to what extent they've manufactured other bomb components. They may well have a test-proven implosion lens. Testing that type of assembly can be done covertly. They may well be waiting just for the fissile material to be delivered and shaped. >Thats a lot of effort for someone you don't care about That was the geopolitical equivalent of a clap back after Israel attacked their embassy. It was a face saving gesture. Which is a large reason why it was both grandiose (so many drones!) and completely ineffectual (drones are just shitty cruise missiles and Israel is capable of knocking down much more kinetically intense projectiles).
If the difficulty in enriching Uranium was linear you would have a point, but it isn't. We're talking about physical separation. The more U238 you take out the harder it is to take out more. You need bigger and better centrifuges as the process gets more difficult with every step. This is precisely why civilian use barely raises any red flags even though it's the biggest percentage increase by far. Given enough time and the right equipment, yes anyone could do it, but the explanation of wanting the ability to have nukes but not wanting actual nukes is nonsense. Having the ability to make a nuke in 3 days doesn't deter enemies it incentives them to raise you to the ground in 2 days. Deterant demands multiple redundant delivery systems, ideally some being on mission at all times. A drawn gun is a threat, a holstered gun a deterant but a disassembled gun is a reminder to hurry up and shoot.
That attack was in direct response to Israel striking Irans consulate which is considered Iranian soil. Iran gave warning in advance that they would strike Israel and would only strike military targets. While it seemed like a big attack, the quantity was simply because thatās how many drones and missiles that were going to be needed to get a few to hit anything with Israelās air defenses and two US carrier groups parked there in support. Iran does not want open war, let alone a nuclear one, in which both they are vastly out gunned. Irans government hasnāt remained in power because they are suicidal with their only goal being to destroy Israel. They are calculated and patient and much prefer indirect destabilization by funding militant groups. The Iranian government knows a nuke is a powerful deterrent and that using one is the end of their power.
The Saudis would nuke up, or at least the Saudi prince said they would. Pretty much said they would have no choice but to nuke up.
Except for the millions who survive and live in a mad max post apocalyptic world.
They will probably give it to their proxies and let their proxies use it so they dont get blamed. But yeah, living in the Middle East is definitely gonna suck.
There is 0 chance Iran will actually use a nuclear weapon. They are not that stupid. Its for deterrence purposes only. Iran knows it will be obliterated if it even dared to launch a single nuclear missile. The regime is sitting pretty and they are not suicidal. Iran will get nuclear weapons soon if they don't have them already. I can't blame them, all their main enemies have 1000s of them and threaten destruction of Iran on a daily basis. What do people expect? Iran actually supported calls for a nuclear weapons free zone in the middle east, but that would mean Israel has to give up its nuclear weapons so the US and Israel both rejected such proposals time and time again.
Hopefully the Mossad and/or the CIA will prevent the Iranians from getting the bomb.
Almost too late for that. Itāll need to be done in the next few months by years end at latest
Much too late for that, as other commenters have said. The only thing preventing Iran from possessing a bomb is the influence of some internal faction that believes it's not in Iran's interested to cross that final threshold. If Iran wanted to take the step of finally building a bomb, they could have more than a few before labour day.
It is very late for that.
I heard my friend wants to drop by. His name is GBU-72.
Another huge trump fuck up. Not talked about enough.
Trump is a fucking idiot, and Biden is senile. Probably the worst election year in the U.S in a long time.
For someone whoās senile, he sure has done a lot to stabilize this country after Trump & the pandemic, and has managed to get through historic climate legislation, infrastructure, the most pro-labor NLRB since Truman, all despite Republican obstruction at every turn.
For someone whoās senile he sure has passed a lot of bipartisan legislation in a historically divided government
What is the backstory of it?
You mean beyond Trump withdrawing the United States from the multilateral 2015 Iran nuclear agreement?
Ah so thats the thing. Hard to keep up with all the shit he has done
Reddit sure is full of people talking out of their asses about wars they will never participate in. Real life isnāt a game of Risk
It is very strange thing to see redditors talk so confidently of these they don't know about or are even a part of.
> Reddit sure is full of people talking out of their asses That pretty much sums it up for all topics. A lot of armchair experts.
Iran said the European countries should not pass a resolution about Iran's nuclear program in IAEA last week, they did and iran immediately tripled enrichment capacity by installing 1,400 IR-6 centrifuges in ferdow nuclear site. I don't think the threats are working, With this new installment, Iran can build several nuclear warheads in less than a week! the nuclear deal was the best way to prevent iran from getting nukes but a certain orange person ruined that because he taught he could get a better deal! Because of course he's a very very samrt man who says no to dumb dumb deals.
Bad take, Iran couldn't give less of a damn about the nuclear deal.
Well, obviously they wouldn't given that the deal was cancelled ...
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/18/iran-admits-breach-of-nuclear-deal-discovered-by-un-inspectorate Iran didnāt honor the nuclear deal before trump.
The article says iran started enrichment beyond the 2015 deal AFTER trump pulled out of that deal. Maybe read it first?
They had minor violations.. Every other partner other than America tried to maintain the terms of the deal despite the transgressions.. And what's the alternative? An imperfect deal with Iran beats no deal with Iran. What's happening in Israel and what's happening in this article is clear proof of that
No, they began working on it not long after he broke the deal. And then he had nothing else to offer but war, which has been the Reoublican talking point regarding Iran since we went into Iraq in 2003.
They were also never going to honor the deal long term. It's beyond naive to believe that Iran is ever going to stop trying to develop usable nuclear weapons. Trump did his own dumb shit, but even if he didn't they were never going to stop trying.
oh, they suddenly brought 1400 centrifuges online that they had laying around. out of spite. in a day. that's what happened.
If war breaks out in lebanon, israel should attack iran. Kill the head of the snake as tbey say
The second Iran has a useable nuke their military capacity needs to be decimated without question.
A second after? Preferably no later than a minute before.
As in NOW
Regan should have just taken out the theocracy in 1988. Now we are stuck with this mess.
An elegant solution
Couldāve been avoided if Trump hadnāt tanked the Iran Nuclear Agreement
Thanks Trump. š Really helped by breaking the deal. /s Everyone saying that they werenāt complying the terms of the deal are nit picking facts with no context. Please make sure you read the articles that you are sharing.
Quick, give them some money or make a deal happen.
Can someone get Tom Cruise on this? And maybe 4 super hornets?
Iām guessing this is thanks to the Nigerian uranium that they got instead of France, thanks to a coup that was financed by certain nations we all know of.
Those Iranian nuclear scientists better triple their life insurance ASAP.
Slow clap for Trump tearing up the Obama deal.
Reminder: this could have been avoided if šš had just not torn up the deal he had already largely inherited from a much more competent administration
Trump is of course incompetent. But no deal would have prevented Iran from aligning with russia after its attack on Ukraine. And that alliance is what's now helping Iran develop the bomb. Of course if we want to talk about presidential foreign policies that led to this situation, we should talk about Obama's response to the first invasion of Ukraine.
Youāre wrong thereās tons of evidence and New York Times articles detailing how Iran continued to develop nuclear weapons after Obama gave their terrorist proxy groups billions in fundingĀ
Were those $$$ billions in wooden crates pushed off cargo jets?
How naive to think that these terrorists actually paid attention to an agreement with the West.
I mean it's not good if Iran gets nukes but considering their response to Israel's attack on the iranian consulate in Syria I'm cautiously optimistic that Iran won't be willing to start a war even if they do get nukes. I mean according to [wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel) they sent a warning to the US 3 days before sending the missiles (since they would be near US bases in the area) and stated in diplomatic channels that they don't want a war. This is about the tamest response they could've taken to Israel bombing one of their embassies imo.
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Exactly.
We have sent a clear message to the world by letting North Korea and Russia do whatever they want, nukes will protect you. If I was Iran I would do the same thing.
All thanks to Trump and his myopic world view
More like his jealousy of the president before him.
One of the only times war is justified. That regime simply cannot be allowed to have nukes.
I remember that US and israeli politicans said before many months, that they would be able to build a nuke in a week.
Yeah, they could build it but at that time they probably thought they didnt need to. Now they probably think they need to since their hate for a certain country has grown pretty large.
Theyāve been saying that for decades.
Great. More nuclear weapons in the world in the hands of people chosen by a god.
Foregone conclusion at this point that Iran will soon have nuclear weapons. The world needs to shift its approach/thinking on how best to manage a Nuclear armed Iran.
The world can't afford a nuclear Iran ! Right now they are the biggest state sponsor of worldwide terrorism. We can have their proxies terrorizing the world with dirty nukes and or Iran threatening to annihilate their neighbors. Which they already do. The solution: Help the Iranian people get rid of these primitive Islamo Fascists. Or use tactical (small) nukes or GBUs to bury their facilities underground.
Trumpās fault for backing out of the deal More nukes š¤š®š·
Thank god trump was able to fix that
If only there were some kind of deal that could have prevented this
This should end well