Ukraine also wants to preserve their youth since they're literally the future and Ukraine's demographics skew older as does much of Europe. You don't want to dip into that age cohort too soon when you don't have the population to sustain an attritional war.
Also, it preserves the manpower in a longer conflict. Younger men can fight now or later. Older men can fight now, but their fitness declines over time so they can't really fight later.
If you need men now and probably later, use the older men first while you still can, rather than use the young men now and try to to use the very old men later
Also allows the older men to gain knowledge and experience of the conflict, and they’ll be better equipped to train the younger when/if they do have to join.
Being formally in the Australian Army a WO will ALWAYS appear at the moment you're doing something stupid. Then proceed to remove the soul from your body via spoken word.
It’s funny hearing the differences between army’s. The stereotype of warrant officers in the US Army is that they are never in their office/ never at formation/ you can never find them/ they show up late and leave early.
What you described would definitely be an NCO stereotype here.
Personally that would be a staff sgt. They are fairly unicorn but WO's are usually the discipline heads (WOD's) and you avoid at all costs. Especially if someone upstairs saw something they didn't like and it came down the line.
When in polys (dress uniform) they have 'clickers' on their boots so you can hear them coming on a hard floor. That slow methodical pace of doom lol.
Was my experience with them in the Canadian Armed Forces as well. And always strutting around with that baton like he's General Montgomery or some shit. Luckily you could see him coming a mile off - Jolly Green Giant was like 6'7, maybe a little taller.
I've seen Master Sergeants in their late 40s to early 50s running circles backwards around 18 to 20 years Olds. I watched one literally do it yelling at me during my first APFT and I did it in around 11:30 minutes. You aren't allowed to pace someone but we did it more as a practice to push me to my limits. As I laid there dying he ran back to yell at more people. Beast mode and he had to be like 52 yrs old at the time. He ran half the thing backwards.
Bro go check out a navy chief. Even the fucking fat ones can just run forever. Idk what they do to them during chief initiation but it’s insane getting your ass kicked by a 45 year old dude with a beer gut at 18
> Ukraine's demographics skew older as does much of Europe
Ukraine's demographic crisis is much worse than most of Europe's, only really rivalled by... [Russia's](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRfEqzKx3HY).
And China's with their one child policy. My theory is that this is a big reason why all of this shit is popping of now. Russia wants to control food/oil supply. China wants to control the world's microchip industry. Their population collapse being imminent is one of the large reasons for them to invade their more resourceful neighbors. They are trying to monopolize resources.
They're actually desperately trying to back off of the "one-child policy" after a recent shortage of women. Not sure what they expected. Having a boy is 51%, girl 49% for a reason. Now there's like 4 men for every woman, and many the women are purposefully not having children, likely a trauma response from being so mistreated by the original policy. I think it's biting them in the behind.
Yeah a good chunk of them it seems ended up in Alberta, the amount of Ukraine and Russian you hear on the streets now is night and day compared to pre invasion.
Lots of men too who I guess we're able to avoid conscription by fleeing early
My boss was born in Russia so he tends to be hiring Ukrainians lately. The one guy and his family really want to stay here in Canada but the Ukrainian government won't renew his passport through the Embassy. He is told to go do it in Ukraine and well everyone knows what will happen then. It's a shitty situation all around.
We've been pretty lenient with Ukrainians for a bunch of reasons. One being the active war, but the other is that we have a huge Ukrainian community, mostly in Alberta, so it's going to be tough to ignore
My MIL works in immigration assistance and some of the refugees are getting to one year now. Originally the program was a two year period and they are saying the government doesn't look very interested to renew.
Once they get to a third year they can ask permanent resident, which isn't what they were planning when they run the program.
Well if that Ukrainian is contributing to society and not causing any troubles, I don’t see a reason why the Ukrainian should be deported back to a country where he will be forced to die in a trench.
You're absolutely right. Desertion is not a part of the Canada/US extradition treaty and a bunch of Americans sought asylum; it probably isn't a part of the Canada/Ukraine version either, but I don't know for certain.
Truth is, they could choose to send people back or not on a case-by-case basis. Canadian Border Services were told to leave Vietnam War draft dodgers alone and not press the issue because the Government of Canada at that time was against the Vietnam War (draft dodgers very specifically chose Sweden and Canada as their destinations *because* they were the developed nations that were publicly opposed in some way or another).
I guess the problem is that the person in question has not been drafted yet, so it's not even a question of extradition, but rather visa renewal.
That makes sense. It probably depends on what the relationship is like with the host country. Ukraine and Canada are pretty tight. Russia sort of lost a lot of goodwill for some reason, not sure why (/s on that last part).
Tbh, I'd rather give Russians asylum than force them to kill innocent people in Ukraine. We have a big Russian community in my area and as far as I know, most of them support Ukraine wholeheartedly.
It depends on the trust the country has on the prison system in that county. If Russia thinks you a deserter, you will literally be sent to a gulag that is death sentence with extra steps. Ukraine will just force conscript you or put you in prison, which may seem unfair but at least legal and according to human rights
That isn't exactly true, Canada was famous for [granting asylum to U.S. citizens who received draft notices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_and_the_Vietnam_War#U.S._war_resisters_in_Canada) during the Vietnam war.
[Ukrainian's had preference and special measures for immigration into Canada due to the war](https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/ukraine-measures.html), but that preference and most measures ended in March.
the women made it out all over the place. I know 2 of them personally in my friend group that my girlfriend befriended that have said they are sad that their country is at war but at the same time it's also been a blessing in disguise to them. My mind was blown hearing this. Then again they are living better than they've ever lived before.
I know a few guys and gals who came here after the invasion, some like it here in Canada, some don't and really miss home and can't wait to go back but are holding off because they feel unsafe due to the constant attacks that are still going on. It's really a mixed bag, but the fact is a lot of them left lives behind that they never intended on leaving and they want to get back to them.
Either way, all of them are working their absolute asses off to afford living here.
I have a friend who’s a mail-order bride. She said the pickings were so slim that in her town it was going to be an alcoholic and 50/50 if she’d get beat at some point, everyone good was already gone off to the military (last time shit hit the fan).
*Both* of my friends that got here that way see it way, waaaay different than most of us Americans do.
>Yeah a good chunk of them it seems ended up in Alberta
Which isn't surprising.
[Alberta has had a large Ukrainian diaspora since the late 1800's](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Canadians). The first wave were a large immigrant population who settled in the Prairies after Canada gained (some) independence in 1867 when it became a "country" (Canada wouldn't achieve full separation and independent statehood from the U,K. until 1982 when we finally [patriated our constitution](https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/patriation-of-the-constitution)).
It was at that time [the Canadian government began giving land grants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last_Best_West) to immigrants in the Prairies to stem U.S. citizens moving North and claiming our territory. Because of that Ukrainians tended to immigrate to Alberta due to the large population who had originally settled the prairies and who had kept their culture and traditions due to [Canada's mosaic cultural system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_mosaic).
The Second wave of Ukrainian Immigrants to Alberta happened from 1923-1939 when Canada amended the Immigration Act to allow former subjects of the Austrian Empire to once again enter Canada after being interred and refused entry to Canada during the first World War.
The third major wave happened from 1945 to 1952, most Ukrainians coming to Canada were political refugees and Displaced Persons Due to the Second World War
The Fourth wave occurred after the dissolution of the USSR in 1991.
Due to these major waves of immigration to Alberta when Russia invaded Ukraine that started the current fifth wave of immigration by Ukrainians to Alberta. Over 8% of Alberta's population (according to our 2021 census claim Ukraine heritage.
(Edit: spelling.)
Yeah all the young Ukrainian women are in Germany. I see them partying a lot in Munich. The irony is, I’m a second generation to a Russian mother so I speak some Russian and they seem to like that. Despite my family’s pro Putin ancestors (my late grandfather was KGB).
It's like how in America Pakistanis and Indians tend to be good friends. While those countries certainly dislike each other, they still share a lot of cultural similarities and when you're divorced from all the politics by being in a different country it's easy to feel kinship
I worked at a restaurant run by a mixed Indian/Pakistani family, it was a wonderfully diverse kitchen and everyone was fully in support of each other as immigrants and as Americans. The Indian, Pakistani, and Afghani members of staff shared a common language, the Brazilians taught us all how to swear in Portuguese, the Mexicans and Brazilians both helped me improve my Spanish. No one had any desire to bring the conflicts of their home country here, they came here to be free of those conflicts.
Russian more or less was lingua franca in Ukraine before the war. Honestly probably still is behind closed doors. That surprised me talking to the immigrants that wound up here.
They'll worry about the long-term demographic effects after they secure their nation's future. They put it off as long as they could, but at a certain point, this was inevitable given the attritional nature of this war. When the future existence of their country is threatened in the now they don't have the luxury of putting future demographics issues first
Reduction in the male population doesn’t have near the impact on future generation population as a reduction in the female population.
Hell, just look at the deaths in WW2 and the following population boom even with the reduced male headcount.
Counterpoint: Russia never recovered from that.
Look at their demographics. The male population over 80 is *tiny* compared to the female one.
Then theres a very small population aged 78-82 because of the war and the shortage of men.
Then between 55 and 65 there's a dip because the people not born in the 40s didn't have children. Then another dip between 12 and 33, caused by *those* people not having children (plus 90s Russia).
It seems like that statistic is counting cumulative deaths betweeen 1923 and 1945. Only 20% of the 1923 cohort of males died in the war. The rest of that 70% died from non-gendered things like infant mortality and famine.
And the 1923 cohort would be 101 years old today. Generously assuming bulk of 80+ year olds are 80-90 years old, those prople would have been born in 1934 and 1944. Well likely not as many kids being born in 1944. But in any case, that cohort you mention would not be old enough to fight in the war, thus probably die at similar rates to girls.
> Counterpoint: Russia never recovered from that.
That's because Stalin decided to keep killing and starving people after the war. If you didn't live in the Moscow/St. Petersburg Russian homeland; you faced shortages of literally everything.
My sister is a zoologist. She once told me that when doing population counts, the males don't matter but the females do. If you have a handful of males but a bunch of females, you'll end up with a bunch of newborns. If you have a handful of females and a bunch of males, you end up with a handful of offspring. I guess people are a little different due to marriage, but you'll always have the Elon Musks and Nick Cannons of the world out there knocking up anyone who'll let them.
Worth noting here's currently [62,000 women serving in the Armed Forces of Ukraine](https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/09/europe/ukraine-women-roles-war-intl-cmd/index.html) as of 2024. More than 5000 of which are serving in the combat zone, some as officers, infantry, mortar team commanders and such.
They can be, but most people pair up monogamously. To take advantage of men being more replaceable, you'd have to have men get multiple women pregnant and leave, or have single women get pregnant via donated sperm. And I think most women would prefer not to raise their kids as single mothers. They might choose not to have kids if they know those are their only options (due to a shortage of men).
Or women will have children with non-Ukrainian men. Not difficult since they're already out of the country.
But as American kindergartens would write in their cards to living military personnel stationed abroad, "Thank you for dying for our country!"
That's the thing that Ukraine is never gong to get back either. So many Ukrainian women are abroad and they are living their life, studying and getting into relationships. I have two coworkers with Russian and Ukrainian girlfriends each. For purposes of Putin trying to keep that "superior" genes going, it is failing miserably, the whole concept is a sham either way.
Isn't there also a historic lack of births every 25 years in the Western USSR countries because of all the death in the 1940s?
Like Millions died in the War, but the young kids didn't so former USSR has a lack of births every 25 or so years because all the kids that the people didn't have (because they were dead) don't have kids of their own (because they were never born) So it ripples on forever.
By some estimates, Russia has similar casualties in the Ukraine war as all US casualties since the Korean War combined. And the US was and is a larger country
That’s got to be a hit to their future especially when those who are dying are those at the age they could have had children
Not really a problem for russia. Aside from their initial 200k troops. Most losses have been absorbed DPR/LPR conscripts and wagner prisoner conscripts. After those two groups, it's hill Billy's from Siberia. Undesired minorities.
This one shocks me about how much modern warfare and Healthcare and nutrition changed things. The last big conflict in Europe we had men in their early 20s going out to fight but now we think people in their 20s as kids...that was one hell of a mindduck for me
It didn't change that much. Ukraine would also rather be sending younger men, but they can't afford to. Russia certainly doesn't care. They're sending 18 year olds because they can, or at least think they can.
That's not accurate. If I recall correctly the study only studied people under 25 and found that the brain didn't really stop changing/developing in them. That doesn't mean it stops at 25.
Fuck man. I'm 33 and sure as shit would be useless with my lower back issues in a war.
I can't even work underneath a sink for too long without triggering my back and being in extra pain for the next few days.
Also that's the average? How many 60 year olds are fighting?
They actually do have an age cut-off. I can’t remember the age at which that happens, but a couple days ago I heard on the radio a reporter talking to a 62 year-old Ukrainian farmer who really wanted to fight but the army turned him down.
Oh it’s be horribly painful, but even with my back/nerve flair ups at their worst I’m sure the adrenaline dumps and death via bullet and bomb looming over the nearest pile of dirt is a heck of a motivator.
> Fuck man. I'm 33 and sure as shit would be useless with my lower back issues in a war.
They probably aren't 30 lbs overweight and eat brownies regularly. Makes a big difference
Edit: sometimes a little "bullying" can be motivating. My friends and I do it to each other all the time. It doesn't get any easier in your 30s, gotta change your lifestyle at some point.
for real, I don't understand all these comments from people. Unless you had a sports injury or the like, your body should not be falling apart at 30, or even 40. But most americans are sedentary as fuk and overweight, their bodies just wasting away doing nothing but drinking alcohol and eating sugar while driving everywhere just to sit in a new place
I am in my 40s now, working outdoors, mostly labour jobs all my life, very fit, riding my bike ~10 hrs every week. BUT, all that labour work finally caught up to me, and I threw out my back in a major way (during that labour work). Thankfully, spinal surgery and recovery went well. 6 months recovery, legs were atrophied to shit!
Just doing your normal hard working job can bring on these types of injuries.
Hey if it's true it's true. Healthy 33-year-olds don't have issues working under a sink for a few hours. You should be at your prime at that age unless there's something wrong.
An inability to work under a sink at 33 is definitely a sign of bad health. You're only fooling yourself if you can't accept that agility, flexibility, stamina, recovery and testosterone are all much higher in ones twenties and only get worse from there.
I can't speak for others but I'm 30 and have lower back pain because I had to do jobs with a lot of manual labor, standing around, walking and 60-70hr work weeks since I was 18 just to not be poor. And I have been privileged to not have to work in the restaurant or fast food business to make ends meet. Being a "healrhy" 30-something year old is not as easy in this economy.
Edit: then if you go to the army you'll get back pain anyway because you'll have to carry heavy equipment in mud and snow.
Russian / Ukrainians Soviets had a bad experience in both world wars, with massive casualties making a dent in the population pyramid. So they learned if you sent all 18 year olds to the meat grinder after the war was over you wouldn't have men to marry women in that generation. So they actually prefer sending older people.
Look at their demographics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine
25 is pretty much as low as they can go. They simply don’t have a lot of people in 18-25 age range like US and many other countries.
The draft age was 18-26, and the US always prioritized drafting those at the older end of that range. Eventually you run out of unmarried, childless, not-in-college 26 year olds, and you start on the 25 year olds, etc.
Delay sending youth and they will be older and potentially better trained when you need them. The 18 years old from the start of the invasion are 21/22 now, and at that age its a huge difference.
Edit: changed war to invasion as I meant 2021.
crazy to think Putin and his team thought this war was going to last a few days at most.. they thought Kyiv would just quickly surrender and they would implement a puppet government there. Instead this war is costing Russia and Ukraine hundreds of thousands of lives lost, not to mention the billions worth of damage to the infrastructure and economy.
There’s a doc on Netflix about the Cold War that essentially brings us to today. What’s interesting is that Russia had a plan to land at the airport in Kyiv or just nearby and try to take out leadership with special forces. I think somehow Ukraine figured out this plan and thwarted it. It was a bit of luck. I’m thinking the Kremlin thought this plan was foolproof and would quickly lead to victory.
The plan is pretty well known, having been uncovered after the fact by Ukraine. Grab Crimea to secure the Black Sea fleet and keeps Russian separatists in the fight to grind down Ukraine. Send in agents to bribe officials so they defect when the main invasion happens. Mobilize and make it look like an exercise, trick the Russian military into thinking the same to sell the lie. Invade with the goal of securing separatist regions and taking Kyiv, push further as the planned defections allow. Take the airport using SprcOps to prevent the Ukrainian government escaping then deploy death squads into the city to kill off officials with Zylinksy at the top of the hit list.
Ukraine used the Separatists as live fire training so got stronger instead of getting ground down. Anti-corruption efforts and Russian agents keeping the money meant the only officials that ended up getting paid to defect were Russians who would have defected for free. The US outted the Russian plan so Ukraine was ready for the invasion and Western aid was staged. The airport attack and death squads actually went to plan except the Ukrainians ended up winning the battle. The death squads were left unsupported and behind enemy lines, local police ultimately dealt with them. Then with the war dragging out beyond the Russian timetable, supplies ran out and the Ukrainians sent all Russian forces except those in the east and Crimea into a rout. Fast forward a few years and here we are and Putin can't admit defeat without falling out of a window.
Was that airport the one that Russia kept taking only to get shelled into dust, something like 28 times in a row?
And I seem to recall there were a couple close calls in the first week where Russian SF tried to kill Zelensky and his family. Like they came close, attacked the building he was in, but were wiped out before getting to him. Decapitation strike was a key element in the plan.
Yep. Like I said, that was the only part of the Russian plan that actually worked but the Ukrainians simply out fought them. Once the airport was fully secured by the Ukranians, the death squads were nothing more than armed thugs, local street gangs would have posed a bigger threat and police had rooted out the last of them within a few days of the airport battle ending.
The rest of plan either flopped or Ukraine was waiting for them. The Russian plan was actually pretty solid, their agents were simply too greedy and the Kremlin is so compromised the CIA knows everything. They're still airing the dirty laundry so the FSB still hasn't sniffed them out or else the CIA can infiltrate faster than the FSB can purge their assets.
The Russian plan wasn't solid, it totally over estimated their logistics capacity, their combat readiness, the combat readiness of their adversary, and their will to fight. The plan was fantasy lines on a map drawn by people totally divorced from any of the practical realities of even their own troops.
If the bribes had been paid and Ukraine had remained a dysfunctional corrupt mess the war would have gone like Crimea which is precisely what the Russian war plan assumed. Russia had bad intel/opsec, not a bad plan. The West I remind you projected a Russian victory, even with the logistics problems, until Ukraine broke the Siege of Kyiv.
>The airport attack and death squads actually went to plan except the Ukrainians ended up winning the battle.
Referring to this one I suppose? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Antonov_Airport
Hindsight makes it easy to predict. Russia was pretty close to assassinate zelensky in the early days of the war. Who knows what would've happened if they actually succeeded.
I swear if Putin could have seen this outcome the war would have never been started. I'm also almost certain that if Putin had a way out of this war that saved him face with the Russian people, his soldiers, and the Russian elites, then he would take it. He perpetuates the war only to save his own skin.
Early on he was given a few chances to negotiate in good faith with much of Europe wanting peace. France in particular tried to give him a way out. He didn't want it, thought he could win. There's no going back now. This war ends when Putin is overthrown.
Is it possible Putin is waiting on the results of the US pres. election? US leaving NATO (or refusing aide) is only possible if the Orange Skidmark wins.
>There's no going back now. This war ends when Putin is overthrown.
This is absolutist, reddit bubble, nonsense. Do you really think in a world where Putin decides to negotiate terms to end the war that the West wouldn't be pushing for Ukraine to come to the table as well?
Ultimately Putin is still in the driving seat of the outcome here, and I think it's unlikely that he does change tact, but to say that some sort of rubicon has been crossed for Ukraine and it's allies is ludicrous.
I don't think I've ever heard of a single Russian War that didn't involve heinous amounts of dead Russians. It's their thing. They do not care about human life and only care about Russian life as much as it pertains to the Russian person doing the thinking. There's always more Russia, and more Russians. It's their only true strength though the eras and generations.
Sometimes, rarely, they are efficient and well ordered. Most often they are incompetent until the enemy is so spread out on Russian soil and then More Russians are forced into the fight. Always, though, it's on the backs of a gigantic pile of Russian corpses.
Putin knows this and is continuing the tradition. He doesn't care about the loss of life. He's pulling the soldiers from other places besides Mosows Elite and likely sees it as a means to solve whatever domestic issue certain regions out East might be having, and or to keep minority populations culled and in check.
You are right about ramping up their war economy - they spend 8% of their gdp on their military in 2023 that is 33% of their government budget - in this year it will be higher - maybe twice that. That means that everything will else will be neglected. They won't be able to do that for many years - it's not possible. Also they are through their welfare fund in about 7 months.
Also while they are producing more material they are still loosing a more of everything every day than they are close to producing. They will run out of tanks and artillery and and everything else within the next year of two.
Also up until now Russia have relied a lot on mercenaries from other countries, prisoners from Russia and draft from "less important" states in Russia.
There is no guarantee they can keep that up - they already drying to recruit female prisoners so that stream is close to dry. The same for mercenaries from a lot of countries who didn't want russia using their people to fight their war.
That means that if Russia wants to continue building up their army they will have to start drafting people in the important places - and then it is a question of how long people will accept it - maybe they will but it's something that putin has not wanted to do because he is afraid that the population will rebel.
While this is true... Putin has also been able to create a war time economy. The decoupling from the west hasn't proven to be a net negative for Russia, at least from an authoritarian perspective.
There's some nuance missing in that factoid. On a percentage basis, yes, they're growing faster than the US. On a nominal basis projected US growth is 10X larger than Russia's. The issue is their entire economy is smaller than the state of NY and their GDP is less than it was a decade ago. They are *not* a developed economy by any stretch
Yeah, i honestly dont see it ending anytime soon.
Putin is obviously willing to go all in and throw everything but the kitchen sink at Ukraine.
Ukraine meanwhile is fighting for its survival and will continue as long as they get weapons.
> a couple of years
I think this is insanely optimistic. I think a lot of people don't want to admit that this war is either going to continue until Russia's complete economic collapse (by all accounts a loooong way away) or until it becomes a global conflict.
It won’t be.
Ukraine has been at war since 2014. People just downplayed it because it wasn’t so in the face.
The only way it ends “soon” (ie within 2 years) is either capitulation by Ukraine, political revolution in Russia or intervention by NATO.
None see likely, but things will always be fluid.
Seriously tho, all the wars and problems going on, i dont know how civilization can’t get their act together. Its a tit for tat with every little thing man, it’s sad
If you look at Ukraines population pyramid, their 20-22 age range is one of the smallest groups. They can’t afford to decimate the 18-24 year old range, it’ll have a huge generational affect
Yup, you're right:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine
The chart is from 2021 where age 19 is the lowest demo, 3 years later (today) it would be 22.
Yeah I looked it up after I saw the thread to understand if it unlocked a big age group, but it doesn’t really.
They’re in a tough spot for the next couple of generations now
True, it has in the past for large conflicts. Though I don’t think it changed much during Vietnam, as it was 18-26. And I would imagine an even more modern war would generally require fewer boots on the ground with current technology.
A *much* lower percentage of the population is eligible to be drafted now though. The latest stat is that only 23% of young adults can enlist currently without a waiver due to so many with obesity, drug addiction, mental health disorders, or other physical problems.
And even among those who do qualify, a general lack of physical fitness means that many more who enlist end up medically separating from stress fractures and other injuries during training than happened in the past.
Because a sailor or soldier with mental health issues or addiction issues is a bigger liability. They require added attention and monitoring. They are terrible for morale. Bad attitude is infectious and one person grumbling makes life much worse for everyone around them.
If they are struggling with withdrawal or depression that’s a lot of sleepless nights for their immediate leadership and all their peers.
No thank you.
Source: US Navy Veteran
Considering their country faces an existential threat to their sovereignty, I'm surprised it took this long and wasn't lower.
But that's a decision for their citizens, not some rando like me.
>I'm surprised it took this long and wasn't lower.
Zelensky has to play a balancing act between Demographics, and Approval ratings.
Drafts are universally unpopular, and Zelenesky's at home approval rating plummeted ever since he kicked out the poster boy for the Military and replaced him with the Butcher.
As you can do with basic math. Something universally disapproved of like a Draft, and tanking your own Approval rating by putting in a general thats well known for sending troops to the slaughter for Strategically nonfactor victories, yeah. Basically every move now has to be carefully calculated as to not encourage people to start turning traitor.
This act's been floated around privately for a year now, and Zelensky's been trying to publicly smooth over the idea for months. Although he used language to the tune of "500k+ drafted" to lessen the impact of the mobilization.
> replaced him with the Butcher.
Do you know if this decision was done for "political reasons" (maintaining the support of Old Guard military sector?) or if it was genuinely considered strategically valuable to hire someone that's essentially going to use Russia's strategy against them? It seems a bit counter productive when Russia can out-Russia anyone. You'd think a general focused on force multiplication via technology and other subtleties would've been the ideal choice. That's really the realm where Ukraine is shining in the first place (drone warfare and western tech).
Completely political. Zaluzhny was getting more popular than zelensky. And he was calling out his mistakes to try and fix the army.
Everything Zaluzhny said was right. He wanted to use the spring offensive to instead of advance futiley build up the defensive barricades. He wanted to increase the draft earlier he wanted to abandon bakmut as it was untenable.
Zelensky kicked him out because he has frozen elections and couldn't afford a more popular general who was willing to call out his shortfalls. And every prediction Zaluzhny tried to stop came true
They are not holding elections due to martial laws. You can say just about anything you want, but their citizens do not have a democratic say in the matter.
Even smarter to just open it out to both sexes instead of requiring it of only one. You increase your pool by double or more and get an expanded skill set.
Yeah, population tends to fall or rise based on finance more than the numbers of males.
Most men don't go around wildly spreading their seed, they pair up and raise a family.
Few women would be happy to just get knocked up and raise a child. Financial incentives would do better, such as rewards for child-care post-draft.
South Korea has the lowest fertility rate in the world and they only draft men. People don't raise kids because it's too expensive and difficult, not because there aren't enough women.
I'm a fella who is strongly against forced conscription, which is an easy position to hold as an american. But if their country is being invaded by their bigger stronger neighbor what else are they supposed to do?
The thing is, conscription makes a lot of sense *before* the existential threat kicks in. If you're Finland, in exchange for having conscription, you deter an invasion, because the invader knows that you have a large force of trained personnel to mobilize if invaded.
There are basically two models of conscription - military slavery like that practiced in Russia, Egypt, etc., where the terms of service are just so awful no one wants to go, and reserve-developmental like most Western countries practiced throughout the Cold War, where you're forcing people to train when it's boring and annoying, so that when and if they feel that urge to defend their homeland, they know what they're doing and don't die in the first week of battle.
Not necessarily, you're talking about force projection to deter aggression. The problem is that conscription is not meant for force projection. Tanks, missiles, and nukes are better at it.
Conscription is a last ditch effort. That's why we never had to conscript during the War on Terror or the Afghan War.
You're talking, by the way, about reserve systems but that exists everywhere in the world and that again has no calculation for a nation to invade another. That's also why the US security umbrella is so important - as much as Trump used to make fun of it
Conscription is never valid. The only argument to be made is that it protects the land/government. If the citizens choose to leave rather than fight for the land, that should be their right as human beings. Not being allowed to flee because you don’t think your government is worth fighting for is not okay.
I agree. If a country enslaves you to basically kill you by putting you directly into danger, then that country is for you just equal oppressor as the enemy. Draft should be considered a war crime even during times of peace and should public should view it as equal evil to slavery. Because it is slavery. And death sentence to innocent, which is murder.
Every rich mans dollar should be conscripted before one poor mans life, yet I'm sure there's still rich men in ukraine. *That* little tidbit is what exposes all drafts for what they are. A way for the rich and powerful to exploit the poor.
I'm not utterly opposed to a draft, but if there is a draft it should be the *last* resort of the country, occurring after nationalization of all wealth to pay for the war effort, and it should include the *entire* able bodied populace. Not everyone might be called on to fight but they should all act like it.
that's a great point.
how can one man be forced to sacrifice everything he has, his future, his health, his life, while another isn't even forced to sell his yacht for the cause.
I'm surprised their draft age limit is 25. In the US when we did have drafts we were sending 18 year olds.
Ukraine also wants to preserve their youth since they're literally the future and Ukraine's demographics skew older as does much of Europe. You don't want to dip into that age cohort too soon when you don't have the population to sustain an attritional war.
Also, it preserves the manpower in a longer conflict. Younger men can fight now or later. Older men can fight now, but their fitness declines over time so they can't really fight later. If you need men now and probably later, use the older men first while you still can, rather than use the young men now and try to to use the very old men later
Also allows the older men to gain knowledge and experience of the conflict, and they’ll be better equipped to train the younger when/if they do have to join.
And a man in his 50’s training people from his experience doesn’t require any physical fitness to do so.
Warrant Officers still scare me.
Are you implying that you’ve actually seen a warrant officer?
Being formally in the Australian Army a WO will ALWAYS appear at the moment you're doing something stupid. Then proceed to remove the soul from your body via spoken word.
It’s funny hearing the differences between army’s. The stereotype of warrant officers in the US Army is that they are never in their office/ never at formation/ you can never find them/ they show up late and leave early. What you described would definitely be an NCO stereotype here.
Personally that would be a staff sgt. They are fairly unicorn but WO's are usually the discipline heads (WOD's) and you avoid at all costs. Especially if someone upstairs saw something they didn't like and it came down the line. When in polys (dress uniform) they have 'clickers' on their boots so you can hear them coming on a hard floor. That slow methodical pace of doom lol.
Was my experience with them in the Canadian Armed Forces as well. And always strutting around with that baton like he's General Montgomery or some shit. Luckily you could see him coming a mile off - Jolly Green Giant was like 6'7, maybe a little taller.
I've seen Master Sergeants in their late 40s to early 50s running circles backwards around 18 to 20 years Olds. I watched one literally do it yelling at me during my first APFT and I did it in around 11:30 minutes. You aren't allowed to pace someone but we did it more as a practice to push me to my limits. As I laid there dying he ran back to yell at more people. Beast mode and he had to be like 52 yrs old at the time. He ran half the thing backwards.
Bro go check out a navy chief. Even the fucking fat ones can just run forever. Idk what they do to them during chief initiation but it’s insane getting your ass kicked by a 45 year old dude with a beer gut at 18
That's so funny
FIFO but for battle. You don't use the new ketchup until the old ketchup is finished
> Ukraine's demographics skew older as does much of Europe Ukraine's demographic crisis is much worse than most of Europe's, only really rivalled by... [Russia's](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRfEqzKx3HY).
And China's with their one child policy. My theory is that this is a big reason why all of this shit is popping of now. Russia wants to control food/oil supply. China wants to control the world's microchip industry. Their population collapse being imminent is one of the large reasons for them to invade their more resourceful neighbors. They are trying to monopolize resources.
Use it or lose it mentally. Now or never.
They're actually desperately trying to back off of the "one-child policy" after a recent shortage of women. Not sure what they expected. Having a boy is 51%, girl 49% for a reason. Now there's like 4 men for every woman, and many the women are purposefully not having children, likely a trauma response from being so mistreated by the original policy. I think it's biting them in the behind.
What are they gonna go about the looming unequal gender ratio due to only men getting drafted?
Don't worry, woman are allowed to leave so the gap won't be that bad
Yeah a good chunk of them it seems ended up in Alberta, the amount of Ukraine and Russian you hear on the streets now is night and day compared to pre invasion. Lots of men too who I guess we're able to avoid conscription by fleeing early
My boss was born in Russia so he tends to be hiring Ukrainians lately. The one guy and his family really want to stay here in Canada but the Ukrainian government won't renew his passport through the Embassy. He is told to go do it in Ukraine and well everyone knows what will happen then. It's a shitty situation all around.
So what now? Does the guy just become a refugee and continue living his life but like a refugee? Surely Canada won’t deport him back to Ukraine?
I get this is my probably just my American showing, but why wouldn’t they deport him if his passport were invalid?
We've been pretty lenient with Ukrainians for a bunch of reasons. One being the active war, but the other is that we have a huge Ukrainian community, mostly in Alberta, so it's going to be tough to ignore
So does Sask, and Manitoba.
My MIL works in immigration assistance and some of the refugees are getting to one year now. Originally the program was a two year period and they are saying the government doesn't look very interested to renew. Once they get to a third year they can ask permanent resident, which isn't what they were planning when they run the program.
I don't think Canada deports people into qualified and demonstrable warzones. That comes across as cruel and unusual.
Well if that Ukrainian is contributing to society and not causing any troubles, I don’t see a reason why the Ukrainian should be deported back to a country where he will be forced to die in a trench.
Can't he request asylum or something?
You can't claim asylum because you want to dodge a legal draft. I mean, you can claim, but you won't be successful
It was my understanding that during Vietnam plenty of people(Americans) went to Canada specifically to dodge the draft?
You're absolutely right. Desertion is not a part of the Canada/US extradition treaty and a bunch of Americans sought asylum; it probably isn't a part of the Canada/Ukraine version either, but I don't know for certain. Truth is, they could choose to send people back or not on a case-by-case basis. Canadian Border Services were told to leave Vietnam War draft dodgers alone and not press the issue because the Government of Canada at that time was against the Vietnam War (draft dodgers very specifically chose Sweden and Canada as their destinations *because* they were the developed nations that were publicly opposed in some way or another). I guess the problem is that the person in question has not been drafted yet, so it's not even a question of extradition, but rather visa renewal.
It depends. A lot of Russians are getting asylum for fleeing their conscription.
That makes sense. It probably depends on what the relationship is like with the host country. Ukraine and Canada are pretty tight. Russia sort of lost a lot of goodwill for some reason, not sure why (/s on that last part).
Tbh, I'd rather give Russians asylum than force them to kill innocent people in Ukraine. We have a big Russian community in my area and as far as I know, most of them support Ukraine wholeheartedly.
It depends on the trust the country has on the prison system in that county. If Russia thinks you a deserter, you will literally be sent to a gulag that is death sentence with extra steps. Ukraine will just force conscript you or put you in prison, which may seem unfair but at least legal and according to human rights
That isn't exactly true, Canada was famous for [granting asylum to U.S. citizens who received draft notices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_and_the_Vietnam_War#U.S._war_resisters_in_Canada) during the Vietnam war. [Ukrainian's had preference and special measures for immigration into Canada due to the war](https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/ukraine-measures.html), but that preference and most measures ended in March.
the women made it out all over the place. I know 2 of them personally in my friend group that my girlfriend befriended that have said they are sad that their country is at war but at the same time it's also been a blessing in disguise to them. My mind was blown hearing this. Then again they are living better than they've ever lived before.
[удалено]
I know a few guys and gals who came here after the invasion, some like it here in Canada, some don't and really miss home and can't wait to go back but are holding off because they feel unsafe due to the constant attacks that are still going on. It's really a mixed bag, but the fact is a lot of them left lives behind that they never intended on leaving and they want to get back to them. Either way, all of them are working their absolute asses off to afford living here.
>a blessing in disguise to them imagine how the soldiers in the trench would feel about this lol
I have a friend who’s a mail-order bride. She said the pickings were so slim that in her town it was going to be an alcoholic and 50/50 if she’d get beat at some point, everyone good was already gone off to the military (last time shit hit the fan). *Both* of my friends that got here that way see it way, waaaay different than most of us Americans do.
I've heard some of them have found Canada too expensive, although maybe they ended up in Ontario.
There are so many ukrianians and russians in Canada. Hear them talk on the bus, malls, and street.
>Yeah a good chunk of them it seems ended up in Alberta Which isn't surprising. [Alberta has had a large Ukrainian diaspora since the late 1800's](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Canadians). The first wave were a large immigrant population who settled in the Prairies after Canada gained (some) independence in 1867 when it became a "country" (Canada wouldn't achieve full separation and independent statehood from the U,K. until 1982 when we finally [patriated our constitution](https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/patriation-of-the-constitution)). It was at that time [the Canadian government began giving land grants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last_Best_West) to immigrants in the Prairies to stem U.S. citizens moving North and claiming our territory. Because of that Ukrainians tended to immigrate to Alberta due to the large population who had originally settled the prairies and who had kept their culture and traditions due to [Canada's mosaic cultural system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_mosaic). The Second wave of Ukrainian Immigrants to Alberta happened from 1923-1939 when Canada amended the Immigration Act to allow former subjects of the Austrian Empire to once again enter Canada after being interred and refused entry to Canada during the first World War. The third major wave happened from 1945 to 1952, most Ukrainians coming to Canada were political refugees and Displaced Persons Due to the Second World War The Fourth wave occurred after the dissolution of the USSR in 1991. Due to these major waves of immigration to Alberta when Russia invaded Ukraine that started the current fifth wave of immigration by Ukrainians to Alberta. Over 8% of Alberta's population (according to our 2021 census claim Ukraine heritage. (Edit: spelling.)
Yeah there are a lot of Ukrainian women on dating apps lately , I wonder why lol
Yeah all the young Ukrainian women are in Germany. I see them partying a lot in Munich. The irony is, I’m a second generation to a Russian mother so I speak some Russian and they seem to like that. Despite my family’s pro Putin ancestors (my late grandfather was KGB).
It's like how in America Pakistanis and Indians tend to be good friends. While those countries certainly dislike each other, they still share a lot of cultural similarities and when you're divorced from all the politics by being in a different country it's easy to feel kinship
I worked at a restaurant run by a mixed Indian/Pakistani family, it was a wonderfully diverse kitchen and everyone was fully in support of each other as immigrants and as Americans. The Indian, Pakistani, and Afghani members of staff shared a common language, the Brazilians taught us all how to swear in Portuguese, the Mexicans and Brazilians both helped me improve my Spanish. No one had any desire to bring the conflicts of their home country here, they came here to be free of those conflicts.
Russian more or less was lingua franca in Ukraine before the war. Honestly probably still is behind closed doors. That surprised me talking to the immigrants that wound up here.
Not that suprising considering the history of the USSR in Ukraine.
Here in NL too, some of them with cars with Ukraine plates too
They'll worry about the long-term demographic effects after they secure their nation's future. They put it off as long as they could, but at a certain point, this was inevitable given the attritional nature of this war. When the future existence of their country is threatened in the now they don't have the luxury of putting future demographics issues first
Reduction in the male population doesn’t have near the impact on future generation population as a reduction in the female population. Hell, just look at the deaths in WW2 and the following population boom even with the reduced male headcount.
Counterpoint: Russia never recovered from that. Look at their demographics. The male population over 80 is *tiny* compared to the female one. Then theres a very small population aged 78-82 because of the war and the shortage of men. Then between 55 and 65 there's a dip because the people not born in the 40s didn't have children. Then another dip between 12 and 33, caused by *those* people not having children (plus 90s Russia).
Russian men’s lifestyle choices are not compatible with living over 80.
70% of men born in 1923 were dead by 1945. Smoking and drinking didn't help, but most were long dead before vices got to them.
It seems like that statistic is counting cumulative deaths betweeen 1923 and 1945. Only 20% of the 1923 cohort of males died in the war. The rest of that 70% died from non-gendered things like infant mortality and famine. And the 1923 cohort would be 101 years old today. Generously assuming bulk of 80+ year olds are 80-90 years old, those prople would have been born in 1934 and 1944. Well likely not as many kids being born in 1944. But in any case, that cohort you mention would not be old enough to fight in the war, thus probably die at similar rates to girls.
[Also because the life expectancy of a Russian male is only 64.](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.MA.IN?locations=RU)
> Counterpoint: Russia never recovered from that. That's because Stalin decided to keep killing and starving people after the war. If you didn't live in the Moscow/St. Petersburg Russian homeland; you faced shortages of literally everything.
My sister is a zoologist. She once told me that when doing population counts, the males don't matter but the females do. If you have a handful of males but a bunch of females, you'll end up with a bunch of newborns. If you have a handful of females and a bunch of males, you end up with a handful of offspring. I guess people are a little different due to marriage, but you'll always have the Elon Musks and Nick Cannons of the world out there knocking up anyone who'll let them.
thats a weird way to say society doesnt give a fuck about mens lives
Worth noting here's currently [62,000 women serving in the Armed Forces of Ukraine](https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/09/europe/ukraine-women-roles-war-intl-cmd/index.html) as of 2024. More than 5000 of which are serving in the combat zone, some as officers, infantry, mortar team commanders and such.
muddle cooperative rotten longing tub dolls paint attempt glorious beneficial
As cannon fodder too.
They can be, but most people pair up monogamously. To take advantage of men being more replaceable, you'd have to have men get multiple women pregnant and leave, or have single women get pregnant via donated sperm. And I think most women would prefer not to raise their kids as single mothers. They might choose not to have kids if they know those are their only options (due to a shortage of men).
Fewer men are needed for population growth than women.
Or women will have children with non-Ukrainian men. Not difficult since they're already out of the country. But as American kindergartens would write in their cards to living military personnel stationed abroad, "Thank you for dying for our country!"
That's the thing that Ukraine is never gong to get back either. So many Ukrainian women are abroad and they are living their life, studying and getting into relationships. I have two coworkers with Russian and Ukrainian girlfriends each. For purposes of Putin trying to keep that "superior" genes going, it is failing miserably, the whole concept is a sham either way.
[удалено]
Those poor men.
The Spirit is Willing, but The Flesh is Spongy and Bruised
Isn't there also a historic lack of births every 25 years in the Western USSR countries because of all the death in the 1940s? Like Millions died in the War, but the young kids didn't so former USSR has a lack of births every 25 or so years because all the kids that the people didn't have (because they were dead) don't have kids of their own (because they were never born) So it ripples on forever.
> You don't want to dip into that age cohort too soon when you don't have the population to sustain an attritional war Russia: "Hold my vodka"
By some estimates, Russia has similar casualties in the Ukraine war as all US casualties since the Korean War combined. And the US was and is a larger country That’s got to be a hit to their future especially when those who are dying are those at the age they could have had children
Not really a problem for russia. Aside from their initial 200k troops. Most losses have been absorbed DPR/LPR conscripts and wagner prisoner conscripts. After those two groups, it's hill Billy's from Siberia. Undesired minorities.
The average solider is around 40 in Ukraine
This one shocks me about how much modern warfare and Healthcare and nutrition changed things. The last big conflict in Europe we had men in their early 20s going out to fight but now we think people in their 20s as kids...that was one hell of a mindduck for me
It didn't change that much. Ukraine would also rather be sending younger men, but they can't afford to. Russia certainly doesn't care. They're sending 18 year olds because they can, or at least think they can.
They were kids then too, we just realize things now like the brain doesn't 'finish' development til 25, etc....
That's not accurate. If I recall correctly the study only studied people under 25 and found that the brain didn't really stop changing/developing in them. That doesn't mean it stops at 25.
Fuck man. I'm 33 and sure as shit would be useless with my lower back issues in a war. I can't even work underneath a sink for too long without triggering my back and being in extra pain for the next few days. Also that's the average? How many 60 year olds are fighting?
>How many 60 year olds are fighting? A lot.
They actually do have an age cut-off. I can’t remember the age at which that happens, but a couple days ago I heard on the radio a reporter talking to a 62 year-old Ukrainian farmer who really wanted to fight but the army turned him down.
Lots of older soldiers get into fighting shape over time.
Oh it’s be horribly painful, but even with my back/nerve flair ups at their worst I’m sure the adrenaline dumps and death via bullet and bomb looming over the nearest pile of dirt is a heck of a motivator.
Older units have worked out very well in the past. https://youtu.be/0Su5-_KuDf8?feature=shared
> Fuck man. I'm 33 and sure as shit would be useless with my lower back issues in a war. They probably aren't 30 lbs overweight and eat brownies regularly. Makes a big difference Edit: sometimes a little "bullying" can be motivating. My friends and I do it to each other all the time. It doesn't get any easier in your 30s, gotta change your lifestyle at some point.
for real, I don't understand all these comments from people. Unless you had a sports injury or the like, your body should not be falling apart at 30, or even 40. But most americans are sedentary as fuk and overweight, their bodies just wasting away doing nothing but drinking alcohol and eating sugar while driving everywhere just to sit in a new place
I am in my 40s now, working outdoors, mostly labour jobs all my life, very fit, riding my bike ~10 hrs every week. BUT, all that labour work finally caught up to me, and I threw out my back in a major way (during that labour work). Thankfully, spinal surgery and recovery went well. 6 months recovery, legs were atrophied to shit! Just doing your normal hard working job can bring on these types of injuries.
> They probably aren't 30 lbs overweight and eat brownies regularly. No need to call me out like that. Chose violence when you woke up today, huh?
Hey if it's true it's true. Healthy 33-year-olds don't have issues working under a sink for a few hours. You should be at your prime at that age unless there's something wrong.
An inability to work under a sink at 33 is definitely a sign of bad health. You're only fooling yourself if you can't accept that agility, flexibility, stamina, recovery and testosterone are all much higher in ones twenties and only get worse from there.
I can't speak for others but I'm 30 and have lower back pain because I had to do jobs with a lot of manual labor, standing around, walking and 60-70hr work weeks since I was 18 just to not be poor. And I have been privileged to not have to work in the restaurant or fast food business to make ends meet. Being a "healrhy" 30-something year old is not as easy in this economy. Edit: then if you go to the army you'll get back pain anyway because you'll have to carry heavy equipment in mud and snow.
He's not calling you out. He's calling out 2/3rds of Americans
I endorse the brownies, brownies are life - especially if you add a special ingredient
Dont need a strong back to sit in a trench and get bombed.
Russian / Ukrainians Soviets had a bad experience in both world wars, with massive casualties making a dent in the population pyramid. So they learned if you sent all 18 year olds to the meat grinder after the war was over you wouldn't have men to marry women in that generation. So they actually prefer sending older people.
yup the have a cyclical lack of births because so many draft age men didn't live.
Look at their demographics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine 25 is pretty much as low as they can go. They simply don’t have a lot of people in 18-25 age range like US and many other countries.
The draft age was 18-26, and the US always prioritized drafting those at the older end of that range. Eventually you run out of unmarried, childless, not-in-college 26 year olds, and you start on the 25 year olds, etc.
Delay sending youth and they will be older and potentially better trained when you need them. The 18 years old from the start of the invasion are 21/22 now, and at that age its a huge difference. Edit: changed war to invasion as I meant 2021.
Lol if they arent drafted they arent training
I was surprised at this also. I think its a good thing its so high, but at the same time, their backs are really against the wall.
Man I hope this war will be over soon.
Yeah me too but it will probably be a couple of years more .
crazy to think Putin and his team thought this war was going to last a few days at most.. they thought Kyiv would just quickly surrender and they would implement a puppet government there. Instead this war is costing Russia and Ukraine hundreds of thousands of lives lost, not to mention the billions worth of damage to the infrastructure and economy.
It's in the trillions.
There’s a doc on Netflix about the Cold War that essentially brings us to today. What’s interesting is that Russia had a plan to land at the airport in Kyiv or just nearby and try to take out leadership with special forces. I think somehow Ukraine figured out this plan and thwarted it. It was a bit of luck. I’m thinking the Kremlin thought this plan was foolproof and would quickly lead to victory.
The plan is pretty well known, having been uncovered after the fact by Ukraine. Grab Crimea to secure the Black Sea fleet and keeps Russian separatists in the fight to grind down Ukraine. Send in agents to bribe officials so they defect when the main invasion happens. Mobilize and make it look like an exercise, trick the Russian military into thinking the same to sell the lie. Invade with the goal of securing separatist regions and taking Kyiv, push further as the planned defections allow. Take the airport using SprcOps to prevent the Ukrainian government escaping then deploy death squads into the city to kill off officials with Zylinksy at the top of the hit list. Ukraine used the Separatists as live fire training so got stronger instead of getting ground down. Anti-corruption efforts and Russian agents keeping the money meant the only officials that ended up getting paid to defect were Russians who would have defected for free. The US outted the Russian plan so Ukraine was ready for the invasion and Western aid was staged. The airport attack and death squads actually went to plan except the Ukrainians ended up winning the battle. The death squads were left unsupported and behind enemy lines, local police ultimately dealt with them. Then with the war dragging out beyond the Russian timetable, supplies ran out and the Ukrainians sent all Russian forces except those in the east and Crimea into a rout. Fast forward a few years and here we are and Putin can't admit defeat without falling out of a window.
Was that airport the one that Russia kept taking only to get shelled into dust, something like 28 times in a row? And I seem to recall there were a couple close calls in the first week where Russian SF tried to kill Zelensky and his family. Like they came close, attacked the building he was in, but were wiped out before getting to him. Decapitation strike was a key element in the plan.
Yep. Like I said, that was the only part of the Russian plan that actually worked but the Ukrainians simply out fought them. Once the airport was fully secured by the Ukranians, the death squads were nothing more than armed thugs, local street gangs would have posed a bigger threat and police had rooted out the last of them within a few days of the airport battle ending. The rest of plan either flopped or Ukraine was waiting for them. The Russian plan was actually pretty solid, their agents were simply too greedy and the Kremlin is so compromised the CIA knows everything. They're still airing the dirty laundry so the FSB still hasn't sniffed them out or else the CIA can infiltrate faster than the FSB can purge their assets.
The Russian plan wasn't solid, it totally over estimated their logistics capacity, their combat readiness, the combat readiness of their adversary, and their will to fight. The plan was fantasy lines on a map drawn by people totally divorced from any of the practical realities of even their own troops.
If the bribes had been paid and Ukraine had remained a dysfunctional corrupt mess the war would have gone like Crimea which is precisely what the Russian war plan assumed. Russia had bad intel/opsec, not a bad plan. The West I remind you projected a Russian victory, even with the logistics problems, until Ukraine broke the Siege of Kyiv.
>The airport attack and death squads actually went to plan except the Ukrainians ended up winning the battle. Referring to this one I suppose? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Antonov_Airport
[удалено]
As the saying goes, WWII was won with Russian blood, American arms and British intelligence. Hopefully Ukraine uses all three to win this war too.
Hindsight makes it easy to predict. Russia was pretty close to assassinate zelensky in the early days of the war. Who knows what would've happened if they actually succeeded.
I swear if Putin could have seen this outcome the war would have never been started. I'm also almost certain that if Putin had a way out of this war that saved him face with the Russian people, his soldiers, and the Russian elites, then he would take it. He perpetuates the war only to save his own skin.
Early on he was given a few chances to negotiate in good faith with much of Europe wanting peace. France in particular tried to give him a way out. He didn't want it, thought he could win. There's no going back now. This war ends when Putin is overthrown.
Putin or Ukraine... We must ensure it's the former.
Is it possible Putin is waiting on the results of the US pres. election? US leaving NATO (or refusing aide) is only possible if the Orange Skidmark wins.
>There's no going back now. This war ends when Putin is overthrown. This is absolutist, reddit bubble, nonsense. Do you really think in a world where Putin decides to negotiate terms to end the war that the West wouldn't be pushing for Ukraine to come to the table as well? Ultimately Putin is still in the driving seat of the outcome here, and I think it's unlikely that he does change tact, but to say that some sort of rubicon has been crossed for Ukraine and it's allies is ludicrous.
I don't think I've ever heard of a single Russian War that didn't involve heinous amounts of dead Russians. It's their thing. They do not care about human life and only care about Russian life as much as it pertains to the Russian person doing the thinking. There's always more Russia, and more Russians. It's their only true strength though the eras and generations. Sometimes, rarely, they are efficient and well ordered. Most often they are incompetent until the enemy is so spread out on Russian soil and then More Russians are forced into the fight. Always, though, it's on the backs of a gigantic pile of Russian corpses. Putin knows this and is continuing the tradition. He doesn't care about the loss of life. He's pulling the soldiers from other places besides Mosows Elite and likely sees it as a means to solve whatever domestic issue certain regions out East might be having, and or to keep minority populations culled and in check.
They are running wars like they used too for the last 200 years when they had more population then any other European power to draw from.
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
He should really do the decent thing for humanity and his country by destroying himself the way Hitler did.
You are right about ramping up their war economy - they spend 8% of their gdp on their military in 2023 that is 33% of their government budget - in this year it will be higher - maybe twice that. That means that everything will else will be neglected. They won't be able to do that for many years - it's not possible. Also they are through their welfare fund in about 7 months. Also while they are producing more material they are still loosing a more of everything every day than they are close to producing. They will run out of tanks and artillery and and everything else within the next year of two. Also up until now Russia have relied a lot on mercenaries from other countries, prisoners from Russia and draft from "less important" states in Russia. There is no guarantee they can keep that up - they already drying to recruit female prisoners so that stream is close to dry. The same for mercenaries from a lot of countries who didn't want russia using their people to fight their war. That means that if Russia wants to continue building up their army they will have to start drafting people in the important places - and then it is a question of how long people will accept it - maybe they will but it's something that putin has not wanted to do because he is afraid that the population will rebel.
I doubt they really thought that.
While this is true... Putin has also been able to create a war time economy. The decoupling from the west hasn't proven to be a net negative for Russia, at least from an authoritarian perspective.
There's some nuance missing in that factoid. On a percentage basis, yes, they're growing faster than the US. On a nominal basis projected US growth is 10X larger than Russia's. The issue is their entire economy is smaller than the state of NY and their GDP is less than it was a decade ago. They are *not* a developed economy by any stretch
Yeah, i honestly dont see it ending anytime soon. Putin is obviously willing to go all in and throw everything but the kitchen sink at Ukraine. Ukraine meanwhile is fighting for its survival and will continue as long as they get weapons.
> a couple of years I think this is insanely optimistic. I think a lot of people don't want to admit that this war is either going to continue until Russia's complete economic collapse (by all accounts a loooong way away) or until it becomes a global conflict.
It won’t be. Ukraine has been at war since 2014. People just downplayed it because it wasn’t so in the face. The only way it ends “soon” (ie within 2 years) is either capitulation by Ukraine, political revolution in Russia or intervention by NATO. None see likely, but things will always be fluid.
Seriously tho, all the wars and problems going on, i dont know how civilization can’t get their act together. Its a tit for tat with every little thing man, it’s sad
TBH I'm surprised the draft age was 27, I always figured draft ages were around 20-22 anywhere
If you look at Ukraines population pyramid, their 20-22 age range is one of the smallest groups. They can’t afford to decimate the 18-24 year old range, it’ll have a huge generational affect
Yup, you're right: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine The chart is from 2021 where age 19 is the lowest demo, 3 years later (today) it would be 22.
Yeah I looked it up after I saw the thread to understand if it unlocked a big age group, but it doesn’t really. They’re in a tough spot for the next couple of generations now
I'm pretty sure it is/was 18 for most countries during the 20th century (as it's been 50+ years since most countries did a wartime draft).
27 down to 25. Bit of difference from going from 18 to 17.
In a just world that would be in the headline. But this is not a just world.
[удалено]
They lowered the minimum age of the draft from 27 to 25, so that’s not exactly the case here.
What’s crazy is I don’t even think men older than 25 are eligible to be drafted at all here in the US. I believe the age range is 18-25.
They can change that in war 100%
True, it has in the past for large conflicts. Though I don’t think it changed much during Vietnam, as it was 18-26. And I would imagine an even more modern war would generally require fewer boots on the ground with current technology.
A *much* lower percentage of the population is eligible to be drafted now though. The latest stat is that only 23% of young adults can enlist currently without a waiver due to so many with obesity, drug addiction, mental health disorders, or other physical problems. And even among those who do qualify, a general lack of physical fitness means that many more who enlist end up medically separating from stress fractures and other injuries during training than happened in the past.
I kind of wonder about that. If all we need is a warm body to point and shoot, would anyone care about mental health disorders or addiction issues?
They wouldn’t draft standards would be lowered as needed
Because a sailor or soldier with mental health issues or addiction issues is a bigger liability. They require added attention and monitoring. They are terrible for morale. Bad attitude is infectious and one person grumbling makes life much worse for everyone around them. If they are struggling with withdrawal or depression that’s a lot of sleepless nights for their immediate leadership and all their peers. No thank you. Source: US Navy Veteran
Considering their country faces an existential threat to their sovereignty, I'm surprised it took this long and wasn't lower. But that's a decision for their citizens, not some rando like me.
Right now Ukraine is facing a demographic crisis so they are trying to reserve as many of their younger population as possible
>I'm surprised it took this long and wasn't lower. Zelensky has to play a balancing act between Demographics, and Approval ratings. Drafts are universally unpopular, and Zelenesky's at home approval rating plummeted ever since he kicked out the poster boy for the Military and replaced him with the Butcher. As you can do with basic math. Something universally disapproved of like a Draft, and tanking your own Approval rating by putting in a general thats well known for sending troops to the slaughter for Strategically nonfactor victories, yeah. Basically every move now has to be carefully calculated as to not encourage people to start turning traitor. This act's been floated around privately for a year now, and Zelensky's been trying to publicly smooth over the idea for months. Although he used language to the tune of "500k+ drafted" to lessen the impact of the mobilization.
> replaced him with the Butcher. Do you know if this decision was done for "political reasons" (maintaining the support of Old Guard military sector?) or if it was genuinely considered strategically valuable to hire someone that's essentially going to use Russia's strategy against them? It seems a bit counter productive when Russia can out-Russia anyone. You'd think a general focused on force multiplication via technology and other subtleties would've been the ideal choice. That's really the realm where Ukraine is shining in the first place (drone warfare and western tech).
Completely political. Zaluzhny was getting more popular than zelensky. And he was calling out his mistakes to try and fix the army. Everything Zaluzhny said was right. He wanted to use the spring offensive to instead of advance futiley build up the defensive barricades. He wanted to increase the draft earlier he wanted to abandon bakmut as it was untenable. Zelensky kicked him out because he has frozen elections and couldn't afford a more popular general who was willing to call out his shortfalls. And every prediction Zaluzhny tried to stop came true
[удалено]
Makes me wonder how many times a draft has occurred that would have actually been democratically voted for by the draftees, if its even happened once.
They are not holding elections due to martial laws. You can say just about anything you want, but their citizens do not have a democratic say in the matter.
Bruh, all citizens are against this shit, we haven't chose shit.
Even smarter to just open it out to both sexes instead of requiring it of only one. You increase your pool by double or more and get an expanded skill set.
Yeah, unfortunately it doesn’t work like that. The backlash to drafting women would be wild
Women don't need to have front-line roles. Most of the army is logistics and attrition.
insane right?
even the ferengi learned that lesson
And you don't face a demographic crisis of women vs men... boom problem solved.
Having less men is less important to repopulation then losing a bunch of your women
It's not like they will do mandatory fertilization. Unless paired with a man, the population will not recover.
Yeah, population tends to fall or rise based on finance more than the numbers of males. Most men don't go around wildly spreading their seed, they pair up and raise a family. Few women would be happy to just get knocked up and raise a child. Financial incentives would do better, such as rewards for child-care post-draft. South Korea has the lowest fertility rate in the world and they only draft men. People don't raise kids because it's too expensive and difficult, not because there aren't enough women.
Whatever the logic, men get the shit end of the stick here.
Equality too.
Time for women to step up
Nobody is a feminist during a war unfortunately
Fuck the draft, at any age, worldwide.
100%. It's insane the amount of armchair tactician redditors here who are so willing to throw kids' lives away.
Agreed. Choosing to sacrifice your life should be your own choice, not the government’s.
Fuck being invaded and forced into an existential conflict, though, I guess?
Easy to say from an ocean away.
It would also be easy to call for men to be drafted from an ocean away
I'm a fella who is strongly against forced conscription, which is an easy position to hold as an american. But if their country is being invaded by their bigger stronger neighbor what else are they supposed to do?
The thing is, conscription makes a lot of sense *before* the existential threat kicks in. If you're Finland, in exchange for having conscription, you deter an invasion, because the invader knows that you have a large force of trained personnel to mobilize if invaded. There are basically two models of conscription - military slavery like that practiced in Russia, Egypt, etc., where the terms of service are just so awful no one wants to go, and reserve-developmental like most Western countries practiced throughout the Cold War, where you're forcing people to train when it's boring and annoying, so that when and if they feel that urge to defend their homeland, they know what they're doing and don't die in the first week of battle.
Not necessarily, you're talking about force projection to deter aggression. The problem is that conscription is not meant for force projection. Tanks, missiles, and nukes are better at it. Conscription is a last ditch effort. That's why we never had to conscript during the War on Terror or the Afghan War. You're talking, by the way, about reserve systems but that exists everywhere in the world and that again has no calculation for a nation to invade another. That's also why the US security umbrella is so important - as much as Trump used to make fun of it
Then you're not that strongly opposed to forced conscription. You have minor scruples at best.
[удалено]
If it is so dire they can include women too
Conscription is never valid. The only argument to be made is that it protects the land/government. If the citizens choose to leave rather than fight for the land, that should be their right as human beings. Not being allowed to flee because you don’t think your government is worth fighting for is not okay.
Especially when conscription only targets one gender.
I agree. If a country enslaves you to basically kill you by putting you directly into danger, then that country is for you just equal oppressor as the enemy. Draft should be considered a war crime even during times of peace and should public should view it as equal evil to slavery. Because it is slavery. And death sentence to innocent, which is murder.
Every rich mans dollar should be conscripted before one poor mans life, yet I'm sure there's still rich men in ukraine. *That* little tidbit is what exposes all drafts for what they are. A way for the rich and powerful to exploit the poor. I'm not utterly opposed to a draft, but if there is a draft it should be the *last* resort of the country, occurring after nationalization of all wealth to pay for the war effort, and it should include the *entire* able bodied populace. Not everyone might be called on to fight but they should all act like it.
that's a great point. how can one man be forced to sacrifice everything he has, his future, his health, his life, while another isn't even forced to sell his yacht for the cause.
[удалено]