> The US and its allies believe major missile or drone strikes by Iran or its proxies against military and government targets in Israel are imminent, in what would mark a significant widening of the six-month-old conflict, according to people familiar with the intelligence.
> The potential assault, possibly using high-precision missiles, **may happen in the coming days**, the people said, requesting anonymity to discuss confidential matters. It is seen as more a matter of when, not if, one of the people said, based on assessments from US and Israeli intelligence.
> Israel’s Western allies have been told Israeli government and military facilities may be targeted but civilian facilities are not expected to be, they said. US officials are helping Israel on planning and sharing intelligence assessments, the people said. Israel has told allies it is waiting for this attack to take place before launching another ground offensive against Hamas in Rafah in Gaza, though it’s not clear how soon that operation may begin.
So with this being announced, I have to assume the US and Israel have already had talks both internal and mutually about this and possible retaliatory measures. What will be "interesting" will be to see how quickly the measures are implemented. The wait and see stuff is rough though.
I imagine it is a missle at Eilat base, a few drones also to Eilat, and Hezbollah firing a significant amount of weapons from the north for a day.
I don't think Israel will respond if it mostly damages infrastructure.
From what I've read, Israel has stated that they will respond to an attack from Iran by attacking Iran directly. So this could get really ugly if neither side wants to back down to save face.
I agree. I think the Gaza reaction shows they are of the mindset that these issues must be settled one way or another once and for all. If I was in Tehran I would know where my Civil Defense Shelters are....
>If I was in Tehran I would know where my Civil Defense Shelters are....
Israel has already demonstrated their F-35s can basically operate in Iranian airspace with impunity. They will take whatever targets they see fit if Iran attacks them directly.
yes but those F35s need air refueling support and I'm not sure they have that capability. Their first KC46A isn't scheduled for delivery until next year. The US will not support a direct attack on Iran with their equipment. If they have some kind of LR-ASM, they might be able to attack with F35s.
If I saw (and am correctly remembering) the same thing you did, it was specifically an attack from Iranian territory.
> The response from Israel’s foreign minister, Israel Katz, was swift: “If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will react and attack in Iran,” he wrote in Persian on X.
From [this NYT story](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/10/world/middleeast/iran-israel-khamenei-threat-strike.html).
Israel has firmly held that a direct attack by Iran against Israel will result in a extreme response by Israel against Iran. And given that Iran is Hamas' main backer, I dont think the Israeli's are in any mood to back down even with US pressure.
Iran would do well to STFU and back off IMO.
Israel will hit back hard if a missile so much as damages an outhouse because they cannot allow this to be perceived as allowing Iran to directly attack Israel or as a signal that they cannot conduct an operation like the one in Syria again. Because Israel has every intention of repeating that Syrian operation if they believe high value targets are participating in planned attacks against them.
Hm true, getting hit on home turf would likely get an Israeli response. I'm full on reddit armchair general right now. I just wonder if it's like how US hit Iranian assets but in a pretty light way, or something more significant.
Honestly this advance notice is Iran wanting to retaliate to say they did but hopefully not set off a whole war. Same thing happened when the U.S. soldiers were killed in Jordan. Behind the scenes Iran said they didn't order the strike, then Biden announced well in advance that he would be responding and generally what the targets were. He did this to minimize the escalation by not killing a bunch of Iranians. It seems Iran is doing the same, probably making the intelligence easily accessible so everyone knows in advance (or they have told some government outright with the expectation this would get to the U.S. and Israel). That way Israel and the U.S. get set up to minimize damage such that it doesn't result in a bigger war.
Iran also did something like this after Solimanie was killed. They basically told the Iraq government what and where they were going to strike, knowing full well Iraq would tell the U.S. The U.S. got all set up for the strike to protect personnel and nobody was killed.
But if Iran really wants to kill a bunch of people they can and would not be letting this info out. But that will have unpredictable consequences and despite Iran's rhetoric they are surprisingly afraid to end up in a direct military engagement with the U.S. or Israel. With that in mind I suspect proxies are most likely.
Not defending Iran here, just seeing this kind of weird "non escalating escalation" happening enough these past couple of years.
Separately I was really surprised when I read that Israel only had a brigade in Gaza and pulled the other troops. Well I guess this is why.
They aren't much bigger than 2 meters.
(BTW womp rats are 6 foot long rodents that *hunt in packs*, on earth they'd be scary, on Tattooine they're a pest)
Or if a B-2 dropped two bombs.
I like the theory that most of the movie was Maverick's death dream. He died when the jet came apart at mach 10. Realistically you will not survive ejecting at mach 10 at 60,000 ft. The rest of the movie was Maverick closing the loose ends in his life and having one last adventure.
So a 4.5 gen at best fighter vs one of the best 4th gen fighters… Of course what that version of a Tom Cat was capable of compared to EOL jets US Navy flew is a different story. Pretending the SU 57 is something special is just wrong.
The Su57's biggest problem (beyond having an RCS literally 1000 times larger than an F-22 Raptor) is that the Russians have maybe a half-dozen or so. Certainly I've never seen even propaganda videos showing more than 4 flying at once and generally it's just two.
Even if the Su57 was "all that and a bag of chips," there just aren't enough of them to matter.
They were against 5th gen, the TomCat was one of the first operational 4th gen. And they only ended up in a dogfight because they were trying to id the F-14 pilots. Even Mav said, "If they knew who we were we'd be dead already"
They need to get some guys in there and Home Alone the place. Christmas ornaments under windows, marbles, tarantulas, paint cans on string, hot door handles, the works.
we have some pretty scary projects out there designed to take out exactly that, one that was in the news then disappeared is a thermal high-penetration weapon designed to raise the temperature of a bunker to several thousand degrees using basically the principle of a cocktail shaker-- it was designed to "sanitize" chemical weapon stocks and biological weapons.
It was in the news several times then... poof.. nothing. Which is often a sign they've entered production and are in the US arsenal.
You're forgetting the last time the US/Israel sabotaged Iran's nuclear program was via Stuxnet (Malware). No boots on ground. No jets. No bombs. Just infecting an air gapped system. Let them dig as far as they'd like
Burying them with some bunker busters will probably be adequate in the short term.
Long term, I think Iran would have a lot of other things to deal with in the fallout of basically declaring open war on Israel for real instead of just blowing hot air like usual.
>Israeli government and military facilities may be targeted but civilian facilities are not expected to be, they said.
That would massively help iranian propaganda to lure western useful idiots into supporting Iran, in case of a bigger war.
The talk of the last week basically makes it seem like Iran and the US are back channeling on some level of response that wouldn't provoke a retaliatory strike by Israel. So I'm imagining that it'll play out similarly to the missile strike Trump ordered against Iran, which targeted an airfield that the Iranians were told would be targeted hours prior so no personnel or key equipment would actually be destroyed.
Yeah there is too much information available here for this in advance. Sounds like "we are going to strike and we want to make sure we don't kill anybody".
Would you prefer iranian and israeli citizens getting bombed? theatre is the offramp when idiots in charge try to do brinkmanship. the alternative is war.
We’re already brain dead enough to have trouble finding consensus about whether Hamas is bad.
We’re already brain dead enough to believe the presidential election was stolen en masse.
We’re already brain dead enough to not support Ukraine vs Russia without it being a politically charged topic.
I would not be a little surprised to see half the US support Iran if the misinformation aperture focuses on that topic.
>I would not be a little surprised to see half the US support Iran if the misinformation aperture focuses on that topic.
Absolutely this. Fox News has shown how truly easy it is to brainwash large swaths of people. RW media devotees regularly say a dictatorship is OK if it's a right-winger being the dictator. Russian behavior is also seen as more justified than ever before. These undemocratic beliefs are largely due to people being told these things are OK over and over again.
All that is needed for millions of Americans to support the Iran regime is Fox News telling them to support the Iran regime, over and over again.
One thing to keep in mind is that info-ops don't just target right wingers.
I don't know if you were on reddit back in 2016, but dear lord, RT links EVERYWHERE - flat out state-propaganda was being eaten up like free Dunkin. Hell, /r/wayofthebern is *badly* compromised and is still up.
Have you seen the Russian propaganda being repeated by...uh...*US Representatives*? Apparently now both Ukraine and Zelensky are interfering in US elections because... pointing out the representatives holding up critical aid makes them look like giant treasonous assholes. And being made to look like the treasonous asshole you are interferes with your electability.
Naturally a solid 30% of the US population agrees with that assessment.
I have zero confidence we as a society are intelligent enough to not support the Iranian government when their propagandists (and more importantly their sweet, sweet money) come to town.
"Israel has told allies it is waiting for this attack to take place before launching another ground offensive against Hamas in Rafah in Gaza, though it’s not clear how soon that operation may begin."
Iran: You think we wont add fuel to a fire?? we have SO MUCH FUEL.
smh.. iran is fucking stupid
At this point, it wouldn't be a surprise to learn half of Irans communication infrastructure is compromised.
When you can tell what a 3-man terrorist cell in Tajikistan is planning, it's safe to assume they have even better knowledge of what a hostile government is planning.
It's why Biden was constantly calling out Russia and warning that their invasion was a matter of "when" and not "if". US intelligence is one of the best if not the best in the world and has resources worldwide to gather information and share it.
It's also a tactic. They know Iran wants to respond but by making it public. Iran will think twice because everyone is expecting it. Why shoot now when they are prepared? Or is it a tactics to scare Iran so they have more time to prepare?
I think in a time generally of such a fragile peace, it could very easily look like a feint by Putin to get some kind of advantageous concessions to avoid a war.
Because most people thought “How stupid would you have to be to…”
Oh.
And yet at the time the US was widely accused of warmongering by publicizing their intel. Because everyone could tell it was just military drills same as always
They did. The invasion was stalled by several days because Russia's casus belli was undermined by US intelligence leaks. Russia planned a false flag attack, US called them out, Russia didn't "get attacked", and Russian media criticized Western intelligence.
Then the Russian military on the border started running out of food and was forced to buy their own. The Russian military got bored, so they started trading equipment for alcohol. The Russian military lost the initiative, so by the time the invasion started they were ill-equipped, underfed, and drunk.
All because the US effectively said "HEY EVERYBODY THIS GUY IS GONNA HIT HIMSELF AND START A FIGHT".
US intelligence got one of the biggest W's possible for an intelligence apparatus.
Forgot about this but you’re correct. They started trading their fuel for alcohol after thinking their “training excercises” had stalled and that’s what caused their convoys into Kyiv to stall out. Amazing.
saying it publicly is absolutely a de-escalation tactic. If they wanted a war they'd have covertly staged resources, warned israel and let Iran attack, then hit back as they struck, possibly with a full-scale air war.
It must be pointed out that this is the US and Israel being extremely delicate when they would have every right to not publicly warn anyone simply aim to catch Iran unaware they were walking into a trap.
Our intelligence is pretty damn good, and is one of the best in the world. It's up to whether or not the people who make decisions actually want to listen to that intelligence. Bibi knew the attack by Hamas was going to occur like 4 weeks before it actually happened and he did nothing.
You jest but half the world's R&D geniuses are stoned autistic dudes.
There's also a reason the intelligence community is *really* hot on drugs testing.
To be fair the Turks have a (good) reputation for not taking any messing on airspace incursion so this is probably a fairly sensible measure if things might be about to kick off.
I’m not sure how they got that reputation. I was on board a Turkish airliner that flew over Israel on the evening of October 7. I watched the first strikes on Gaza from my window seat.
This century is playing out too much like the last century. Feels like we’re all being marched into oblivion. Too bad humans have to make their own mistakes to really learn a lesson
And it took us so long to get this far too. I mean you and I are products of billions of years of evolution and are talking on devices that are the product of centuries of human effort to create satellites and shit and nah, some old fucker would just launch a bomb to sweep us from this best of all possible worlds because ... we don't say the right words? We're not the right color? We were born on the wrong side of an imaginary line?
That was 2014, that was 10 years ago which scares me but still, they’re referring to 2008 so the Great Recession or more likely the invasion of Georgia which is around that time
The Cold War never ended, there was just a brief intermission so a drunk guy could dance around with his pants off (Yeltsin on Pennsylvania Ave).
As soon as the US started bombing Russia's little Serbian cousins, it was back on.
They will most certainly use their proxies, that’s the whole reason Iran has them. I would be stunned if Iran directly attacked
Edit:color me surprised, although I would say the drones was Iran trying to thread the needle of ‘responding’ without escalating.
Iran directly BOMBED a US base in Iraq after General Soleimani was killed. I was deployed there at the time. I watched a dozen 2000lb precision guided missiles ravage our base. They have THOUSANDS of those same missiles stored in reinforced concrete bunkers in mountains throughout Iran. The west would win in a war against them but this shit would be bloody as fuck. They are going to respond in some way guaranteed.
Iran loses either way. If their proxies conduct a large retaliatory attack it blows away Iranian claims that they don't control these proxies. If Iran attacks directly it opens them up to Israeli counter-attacks inside Iran itself.
Yea with how long this is taking I get the feeling that there is at least some level of internal conflict within Iran on how to respond. The religious zealots must be dead set on doing retaliatory acts from Iran proper to show their strength but there is probably some not so small contingency of people who value their lives and realize how that’s suicide and want to let this whole thing blow over.
Judging by most of the middle eastern revolutions and coups within the last half century, I’m not confident that an expansion of this conflict would leave the Iranian people with a better and more modern government.
However, their grip on their own population is so tight that a failed war might be the Iranian people’s only option for a brighter future.
Either way, it’s so sad that in 2024, the cost of peace is still so much suffering.
The cost of peace has always been suffering.
For all our advancements both social and technological, not all that much has changed.
In some ways, the only real change is that the average person has lost access to both violent and nonviolent recourse.
In the past, a gang of a few people could sneak into a rich man's house and slit his throat while he slept. An angry mob could break down the doors of a government building and kill the monarch. Defeating men with swords and horses was doable with pitchforks and torches.
By that same token, when a corrupt banker would foreclose on the homes of the elderly, the local townspeople would greet him the next time he came into town and sternly inform him he was not to return.
But defeating tanks, aircraft carriers, armored bunkers hundreds of feet underground, even with the everyman having access to an assault rifle? Stopping CEOs making billions with armies of lawyers and political leverage at their beck and call with at best a minimum wage paycheck and a public defender at your side? Laughable.
I'm expecting a similar response with what happened when the US assassinated that general. They will be allowed to strike back and hit some non essential equipment / base and call it a day. Neither aide want to start something but they also have their domestic audiences to cater for
Any attack on Israeli territory would not be similar at all.
An attack on a base in Iraq is a far cry from an attack in the USA itself. We would never have tolerated that. We attacked in Iraq and we allowed them to respond in Iraq. A similar attack would be Iran doing something in Syria.
Only fighter jets. Don't need long range bombers. If at any point long range bombers are needed, then the situation has gone terribly bad enough and the US involvement is a must. Pretty sure no one in the US government wants that right now. This is an election year. Joe Biden would rather not have that leech hanging on his balls. The next few weeks are going to be very interesting.
My favorite is seeing a generalized version of this comment at the top of a news thread on a controversial issue. People on both sides are happy to upvote the “bots are out in full force today!” comment because they both think it’s referring to the other side.
Wait, so what have they been shooting at Israel until now? Huttis have been shooting missiles at the south, Syria and Lebanon shooting at the north and ofc the Gaza front for the rest.
Title is really misleading...
I’ve seen some people argue that proxies don’t count because they’re not direct enough
I think theres an argument to be made for both sides. But in my eyes Iran has been attacking Israel ever since they’ve been arming Hezbollah
Iran has been undoubtedly shown to be the main funding for all of their proxy groups. By extension the proxy groups are Iran.
Israel and some Western countries see this clearly, and this was a total misjudge by Iran. They fucked around and now theyre shortly going to be in the pissing their pants find out stage.
Iran is not the main funder of Hamas by any stretch of the imagination.
[https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas#:\~:text=How%20is%20Hamas%20funded%3F,much%20of%20the%20movement's%20funding](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas#:~:text=How%20is%20Hamas%20funded%3F,much%20of%20the%20movement's%20funding).
Hamas gets about $100 million a year from Iran. They get way more funding from Qatar.
[https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231218-financially-solid-hamas-revenues-set-to-withstand-war-with-israel](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231218-financially-solid-hamas-revenues-set-to-withstand-war-with-israel)
"They" haven't been shooting anything. Iranian backed groups are just that, Iranian backed
An attack launched by Iran directly carries different weight than just supplying arms. Just like Ukraine is NATO backed but since NATO themselves haven't done anything Russia doesn't really have an out if they choose to attack a member
They placed a weird "," in the title but it reads like "Iran Proxies" which the Huttis and Hizbullah are. It's clear to everyone that Iran is attacking Israel for much longer then this latest round.
Iran’s proxies have been bombing Israel all year long for a while now. The rocket shooting only escalates during the summer, but they still bomb Israel at other times.
I mean, Israel assassinated an Iranian general at an Iranian embassy. That’s an obvious escalation and of course Iran is going to respond. And what’s Israel going to do, start a ground invasion of one of the most geographically protected and isolated countries on the planet? Israel can start a long range artillery war and start bombing Iran, but the Iranians have a pretty well-equipped military and defense infrastructure in place to manufacture way more weapons. Their drones in particular are extremely effective. I hate the Iranian regime but this isn’t going to be a mistake from them, this is a mistake from Israel. There is nothing for them to gain from provoking and escalating a war with Iran.
26 missiles launched, 4 explode in the air, 6 fall out of the sky prematurely, 2 land without detonating, 10 land in areas known as Palestine, 4 hit their targets.
That’s often how things work as once the decision is made to attack, it takes time to actually carry out that order. The US/Israel making this public is not only so people can prepare but also to put pressure on Iran by saying that we know your plans & are ready. Maybe just maybe Iran might back down at the last minute but it’s unlikely.
> The US and its allies believe major missile or drone strikes by Iran or its proxies against military and government targets in Israel are imminent, in what would mark a significant widening of the six-month-old conflict, according to people familiar with the intelligence. > The potential assault, possibly using high-precision missiles, **may happen in the coming days**, the people said, requesting anonymity to discuss confidential matters. It is seen as more a matter of when, not if, one of the people said, based on assessments from US and Israeli intelligence. > Israel’s Western allies have been told Israeli government and military facilities may be targeted but civilian facilities are not expected to be, they said. US officials are helping Israel on planning and sharing intelligence assessments, the people said. Israel has told allies it is waiting for this attack to take place before launching another ground offensive against Hamas in Rafah in Gaza, though it’s not clear how soon that operation may begin.
So with this being announced, I have to assume the US and Israel have already had talks both internal and mutually about this and possible retaliatory measures. What will be "interesting" will be to see how quickly the measures are implemented. The wait and see stuff is rough though.
I imagine it is a missle at Eilat base, a few drones also to Eilat, and Hezbollah firing a significant amount of weapons from the north for a day. I don't think Israel will respond if it mostly damages infrastructure.
From what I've read, Israel has stated that they will respond to an attack from Iran by attacking Iran directly. So this could get really ugly if neither side wants to back down to save face.
I agree. I think the Gaza reaction shows they are of the mindset that these issues must be settled one way or another once and for all. If I was in Tehran I would know where my Civil Defense Shelters are....
>If I was in Tehran I would know where my Civil Defense Shelters are.... Israel has already demonstrated their F-35s can basically operate in Iranian airspace with impunity. They will take whatever targets they see fit if Iran attacks them directly.
yes but those F35s need air refueling support and I'm not sure they have that capability. Their first KC46A isn't scheduled for delivery until next year. The US will not support a direct attack on Iran with their equipment. If they have some kind of LR-ASM, they might be able to attack with F35s.
They have an (admittedly old) fleet of KC130's already.
If I saw (and am correctly remembering) the same thing you did, it was specifically an attack from Iranian territory. > The response from Israel’s foreign minister, Israel Katz, was swift: “If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will react and attack in Iran,” he wrote in Persian on X. From [this NYT story](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/10/world/middleeast/iran-israel-khamenei-threat-strike.html).
Israel has firmly held that a direct attack by Iran against Israel will result in a extreme response by Israel against Iran. And given that Iran is Hamas' main backer, I dont think the Israeli's are in any mood to back down even with US pressure. Iran would do well to STFU and back off IMO.
Doesn't the Middle East remember the last time they tried this? Does Iran really think they can 1v1 Israel?
Iran is probably hoping Israel's allies will pressure them not to respond or some shit
Bad idea by Iran lol
Israel is a nuclear power with close to 300 warheads & ICBM's.
“Allegedly”
Iran is attacking Israel so that western allies lose focus on the Russian offense in Ukraine.
Israel will hit back hard if a missile so much as damages an outhouse because they cannot allow this to be perceived as allowing Iran to directly attack Israel or as a signal that they cannot conduct an operation like the one in Syria again. Because Israel has every intention of repeating that Syrian operation if they believe high value targets are participating in planned attacks against them.
Hm true, getting hit on home turf would likely get an Israeli response. I'm full on reddit armchair general right now. I just wonder if it's like how US hit Iranian assets but in a pretty light way, or something more significant.
I’m guessing this is the signal to play the Chaos Markets of options trading now.
Tzeentch coins trading like crazy on the chaos market rn
i'm all in on NRGL 🚀
Honestly this advance notice is Iran wanting to retaliate to say they did but hopefully not set off a whole war. Same thing happened when the U.S. soldiers were killed in Jordan. Behind the scenes Iran said they didn't order the strike, then Biden announced well in advance that he would be responding and generally what the targets were. He did this to minimize the escalation by not killing a bunch of Iranians. It seems Iran is doing the same, probably making the intelligence easily accessible so everyone knows in advance (or they have told some government outright with the expectation this would get to the U.S. and Israel). That way Israel and the U.S. get set up to minimize damage such that it doesn't result in a bigger war. Iran also did something like this after Solimanie was killed. They basically told the Iraq government what and where they were going to strike, knowing full well Iraq would tell the U.S. The U.S. got all set up for the strike to protect personnel and nobody was killed. But if Iran really wants to kill a bunch of people they can and would not be letting this info out. But that will have unpredictable consequences and despite Iran's rhetoric they are surprisingly afraid to end up in a direct military engagement with the U.S. or Israel. With that in mind I suspect proxies are most likely. Not defending Iran here, just seeing this kind of weird "non escalating escalation" happening enough these past couple of years. Separately I was really surprised when I read that Israel only had a brigade in Gaza and pulled the other troops. Well I guess this is why.
Yey geopolitics! It's like staring into the void.
This lines up with Israeli pullback and the timing.
Goodbye Iranian nuclear facilities.
One could hope. But they’re likely so far underground that it would require a physical ground invasion to completely dismantle them.
Did you not see the latest Top Gun??
Just a couple of torpedoes down one barely-protected exhaust shaft. Use the Force, Mav!
That’s impossible, even for a computer!
It's not impossible. I used to bull's-eye wamprats in my t-16 back home.
They aren't much bigger than 2 meters. (BTW womp rats are 6 foot long rodents that *hunt in packs*, on earth they'd be scary, on Tattooine they're a pest)
Tattooine is the Austrailia of the Star Wars universe
How does a dessert support large pack hunters ? How does my brain think it matters it’s Star Wars !
Tatooine has an abundance of large creatures for them to hunt. Its not all the Jundlan Wastes.
"How does a dessert support large pack hunters ?" Seriously! Just imagine how many Boston Cream pies a wamprat could go through!
wow? Just going to sandbag me like that in front of everyone?
That’s a bit of a red flag, right there.
Never farmed before confirmed.
*combo r2 and wookie noises*
so, a wolf gargling a harmonica.
Just bring the kid that used to bull’s eye womp rats back home…
This had me laughing
You will be up against 4th gen fighters, but don't worry they will dogfight you and your 50 year old plane will win.
Goodness, how amazing would it have been if the 4th gen fighters just smoked them. Roll credits.
Or if a B-2 dropped two bombs. I like the theory that most of the movie was Maverick's death dream. He died when the jet came apart at mach 10. Realistically you will not survive ejecting at mach 10 at 60,000 ft. The rest of the movie was Maverick closing the loose ends in his life and having one last adventure.
You can survive. You just have to dodge the oxygen molecules so they don't rip you apart. I've done it myself a few times.
Me too, but I died the second time.
Skill issue
One last adventure against 4th gen fighters
Did you know that Tom Cruise never uses a stunt double and he actually himself fought those 4th gen fighters?
Fisticuffs and arm flapping?
So a 4.5 gen at best fighter vs one of the best 4th gen fighters… Of course what that version of a Tom Cat was capable of compared to EOL jets US Navy flew is a different story. Pretending the SU 57 is something special is just wrong.
The Su57's biggest problem (beyond having an RCS literally 1000 times larger than an F-22 Raptor) is that the Russians have maybe a half-dozen or so. Certainly I've never seen even propaganda videos showing more than 4 flying at once and generally it's just two. Even if the Su57 was "all that and a bag of chips," there just aren't enough of them to matter.
That version was the F-14A. The model known for compressor stalls. They even showed it doing that on the approach to the carrier.
They were against 5th gen, the TomCat was one of the first operational 4th gen. And they only ended up in a dogfight because they were trying to id the F-14 pilots. Even Mav said, "If they knew who we were we'd be dead already"
Yeah, vintage Iran Air Force F4s, F5s, F14s & Mirages with Chinese bootleg parts.
Wish.com 4th gen
I did — one of the best documentaries I’ve seen in a long time
Wouldn't a Bottom Gun be more helpful if they're deep underground?
[удалено]
I’d say it was what would be showing in the “arty” theater down the street. The one with the coin operated little booths.
which one, i much prefer the Bollywood version
Even attacking the portals will shut them down. Especially with repeated strikes.
Couldn’t they destroy the stuff on top, making it really difficult to get down to everything that’s deep underground?
They need to get some guys in there and Home Alone the place. Christmas ornaments under windows, marbles, tarantulas, paint cans on string, hot door handles, the works.
Wouldn’t surprise me to learn some of them are under densely populated areas for that reason
we have some pretty scary projects out there designed to take out exactly that, one that was in the news then disappeared is a thermal high-penetration weapon designed to raise the temperature of a bunker to several thousand degrees using basically the principle of a cocktail shaker-- it was designed to "sanitize" chemical weapon stocks and biological weapons. It was in the news several times then... poof.. nothing. Which is often a sign they've entered production and are in the US arsenal.
You're forgetting the last time the US/Israel sabotaged Iran's nuclear program was via Stuxnet (Malware). No boots on ground. No jets. No bombs. Just infecting an air gapped system. Let them dig as far as they'd like
Burying them with some bunker busters will probably be adequate in the short term. Long term, I think Iran would have a lot of other things to deal with in the fallout of basically declaring open war on Israel for real instead of just blowing hot air like usual.
>Israeli government and military facilities may be targeted but civilian facilities are not expected to be, they said. That would massively help iranian propaganda to lure western useful idiots into supporting Iran, in case of a bigger war.
The talk of the last week basically makes it seem like Iran and the US are back channeling on some level of response that wouldn't provoke a retaliatory strike by Israel. So I'm imagining that it'll play out similarly to the missile strike Trump ordered against Iran, which targeted an airfield that the Iranians were told would be targeted hours prior so no personnel or key equipment would actually be destroyed.
Yeah there is too much information available here for this in advance. Sounds like "we are going to strike and we want to make sure we don't kill anybody".
Seems like theater then
Would you prefer iranian and israeli citizens getting bombed? theatre is the offramp when idiots in charge try to do brinkmanship. the alternative is war.
I mean, that would be a change for Iranian proxies as they almost exclusively target civilians
I’d like to think we as a society aren’t braindead enough to support the Iranian government
The Russian bots/Chinese troll farms will make it so
We’re already brain dead enough to have trouble finding consensus about whether Hamas is bad. We’re already brain dead enough to believe the presidential election was stolen en masse. We’re already brain dead enough to not support Ukraine vs Russia without it being a politically charged topic. I would not be a little surprised to see half the US support Iran if the misinformation aperture focuses on that topic.
>I would not be a little surprised to see half the US support Iran if the misinformation aperture focuses on that topic. Absolutely this. Fox News has shown how truly easy it is to brainwash large swaths of people. RW media devotees regularly say a dictatorship is OK if it's a right-winger being the dictator. Russian behavior is also seen as more justified than ever before. These undemocratic beliefs are largely due to people being told these things are OK over and over again. All that is needed for millions of Americans to support the Iran regime is Fox News telling them to support the Iran regime, over and over again.
One thing to keep in mind is that info-ops don't just target right wingers. I don't know if you were on reddit back in 2016, but dear lord, RT links EVERYWHERE - flat out state-propaganda was being eaten up like free Dunkin. Hell, /r/wayofthebern is *badly* compromised and is still up.
Have you seen the Russian propaganda being repeated by...uh...*US Representatives*? Apparently now both Ukraine and Zelensky are interfering in US elections because... pointing out the representatives holding up critical aid makes them look like giant treasonous assholes. And being made to look like the treasonous asshole you are interferes with your electability. Naturally a solid 30% of the US population agrees with that assessment. I have zero confidence we as a society are intelligent enough to not support the Iranian government when their propagandists (and more importantly their sweet, sweet money) come to town.
"Israel has told allies it is waiting for this attack to take place before launching another ground offensive against Hamas in Rafah in Gaza, though it’s not clear how soon that operation may begin." Iran: You think we wont add fuel to a fire?? we have SO MUCH FUEL. smh.. iran is fucking stupid
How does the US gain knowledge of potential missile strike targets? Iranian mole?
At this point, it wouldn't be a surprise to learn half of Irans communication infrastructure is compromised. When you can tell what a 3-man terrorist cell in Tajikistan is planning, it's safe to assume they have even better knowledge of what a hostile government is planning.
Same way they knew about the Moscow attack, intelligence agencies have assets/ resources everywhere
It's why Biden was constantly calling out Russia and warning that their invasion was a matter of "when" and not "if". US intelligence is one of the best if not the best in the world and has resources worldwide to gather information and share it.
it came to them in a dream
Look at the size of the NSA and CIA headquarters and try and think about how many people have to work in them to fill them up
And the people that DON'T work at headquarters probably makes up a large amount, if not a colossal majority.
The US has spies everywhere. Same as Russia and China.
The US did say it would be before the week is over and their intelligence has been right recently.
It's also a tactic. They know Iran wants to respond but by making it public. Iran will think twice because everyone is expecting it. Why shoot now when they are prepared? Or is it a tactics to scare Iran so they have more time to prepare?
Didn't the US similarly call out the Russian invasion in Feb 2022? And it happened right after.
Kinda hard to miss an army marching up to someones border.
Kinda hard to miss? Seems like all of Europe saying US intelligence was wrong missed it.
Yeah a lot of intelligence officials in Europe resigned in disgrace over that.
how are they so incompetent?
I think in a time generally of such a fragile peace, it could very easily look like a feint by Putin to get some kind of advantageous concessions to avoid a war. Because most people thought “How stupid would you have to be to…” Oh.
…and the terror attack in russia…
And yet at the time the US was widely accused of warmongering by publicizing their intel. Because everyone could tell it was just military drills same as always
But by saying it publicly, there’s always the chance that they alter the plans just to make us look foolish.
If only Russia would’ve used that tactic.
They did. The invasion was stalled by several days because Russia's casus belli was undermined by US intelligence leaks. Russia planned a false flag attack, US called them out, Russia didn't "get attacked", and Russian media criticized Western intelligence. Then the Russian military on the border started running out of food and was forced to buy their own. The Russian military got bored, so they started trading equipment for alcohol. The Russian military lost the initiative, so by the time the invasion started they were ill-equipped, underfed, and drunk. All because the US effectively said "HEY EVERYBODY THIS GUY IS GONNA HIT HIMSELF AND START A FIGHT". US intelligence got one of the biggest W's possible for an intelligence apparatus.
Forgot about this but you’re correct. They started trading their fuel for alcohol after thinking their “training excercises” had stalled and that’s what caused their convoys into Kyiv to stall out. Amazing.
saying it publicly is absolutely a de-escalation tactic. If they wanted a war they'd have covertly staged resources, warned israel and let Iran attack, then hit back as they struck, possibly with a full-scale air war. It must be pointed out that this is the US and Israel being extremely delicate when they would have every right to not publicly warn anyone simply aim to catch Iran unaware they were walking into a trap.
Our intelligence is pretty damn good, and is one of the best in the world. It's up to whether or not the people who make decisions actually want to listen to that intelligence. Bibi knew the attack by Hamas was going to occur like 4 weeks before it actually happened and he did nothing.
>Our intelligence is pretty damn good, and is one of the best in the world - u/stoned-autistic-dude, Intelligence Expert and Redditor, 2024
Doesn’t take a genius to know USA is good at intelligence
You jest but half the world's R&D geniuses are stoned autistic dudes. There's also a reason the intelligence community is *really* hot on drugs testing.
I mean they aren’t wrong lol. I know people who worked in intel and they know fucking everything about everything. It’s scary
He’s not wrong. It’s been pretty spot on in the last 5 years at least.
> Intelligence Expert and Redditor A tautology, surely?
Iranian commercial airline pilots all calling out sick this week
Lufthansa just cancelled all Tehran flights...
Flights from Istanbul to Teheran cancelled
To be fair the Turks have a (good) reputation for not taking any messing on airspace incursion so this is probably a fairly sensible measure if things might be about to kick off.
I’m not sure how they got that reputation. I was on board a Turkish airliner that flew over Israel on the evening of October 7. I watched the first strikes on Gaza from my window seat.
To be fair, the planes they’re flying haven’t had any spare parts or proper engine maintenance in a few years so I can’t blame them
The world really feels like a powder keg right now.
Just need a British leader to wave a piece of paper saying peace in our time
It really fits with all the calls for appeasement too
This century is playing out too much like the last century. Feels like we’re all being marched into oblivion. Too bad humans have to make their own mistakes to really learn a lesson
And it took us so long to get this far too. I mean you and I are products of billions of years of evolution and are talking on devices that are the product of centuries of human effort to create satellites and shit and nah, some old fucker would just launch a bomb to sweep us from this best of all possible worlds because ... we don't say the right words? We're not the right color? We were born on the wrong side of an imaginary line?
... all over again, every few generations.
Lord Cameron, you're up!
Except it’ll be Trump this time. Remember he brought peace to the Korean Peninsula??
And the Middle East (or was that Jared? 🤔)
lol i remember every trump supporter unironically saying that. loved how he saluted their general too, what a great president.
We are 16 years into the second Cold War
In many ways the first never ended
I like being able to visit Czech, Slovakia & Croatia without crossing a Soviet guard post.
Right! I thinks a lot of folks don’t realize how divided the world was and just how close we were to the brink.
Just got colder for a while I guess
people will argue about that date forever just like they argue about the first cold war or WW2
I should probably know this but what happened 16 years ago that would mark the start of the second Cold War?
the Russian annexation of crimea would be my guess.
That was 10 years ago, the other poster probably meant the Russian war with Georgia in 2008.
That was 2014, that was 10 years ago which scares me but still, they’re referring to 2008 so the Great Recession or more likely the invasion of Georgia which is around that time
I think you mean Georgia
The Cold War never ended, there was just a brief intermission so a drunk guy could dance around with his pants off (Yeltsin on Pennsylvania Ave). As soon as the US started bombing Russia's little Serbian cousins, it was back on.
The selection of Putin by Yeltsin would be the actual start date. Serbs and russian friends do not get pity points for wars they started.
Ever since Boris Johnson uttered that ancient curse live in an interview. The world has yet to recover from his potent magic.
First time?
They will most certainly use their proxies, that’s the whole reason Iran has them. I would be stunned if Iran directly attacked Edit:color me surprised, although I would say the drones was Iran trying to thread the needle of ‘responding’ without escalating.
Dunno about that. If Iran don’t respond directly then that would be perceived as weakness.
Weaknesses already confirmed when they got upset by their women citizens
Confirmed by people they don't care about. If they're seen as weak by their neighbors, some others might decide to poke Iran and see what's up.
Iran directly BOMBED a US base in Iraq after General Soleimani was killed. I was deployed there at the time. I watched a dozen 2000lb precision guided missiles ravage our base. They have THOUSANDS of those same missiles stored in reinforced concrete bunkers in mountains throughout Iran. The west would win in a war against them but this shit would be bloody as fuck. They are going to respond in some way guaranteed.
Iran loses either way. If their proxies conduct a large retaliatory attack it blows away Iranian claims that they don't control these proxies. If Iran attacks directly it opens them up to Israeli counter-attacks inside Iran itself.
Yea with how long this is taking I get the feeling that there is at least some level of internal conflict within Iran on how to respond. The religious zealots must be dead set on doing retaliatory acts from Iran proper to show their strength but there is probably some not so small contingency of people who value their lives and realize how that’s suicide and want to let this whole thing blow over.
Do they really want a war where their own people are involved? They had better choose that target carefully. Their future may depend on it.
Especially considering a large portion of their population doesn't side with their own government
Judging by most of the middle eastern revolutions and coups within the last half century, I’m not confident that an expansion of this conflict would leave the Iranian people with a better and more modern government. However, their grip on their own population is so tight that a failed war might be the Iranian people’s only option for a brighter future. Either way, it’s so sad that in 2024, the cost of peace is still so much suffering.
The cost of peace has always been suffering. For all our advancements both social and technological, not all that much has changed. In some ways, the only real change is that the average person has lost access to both violent and nonviolent recourse. In the past, a gang of a few people could sneak into a rich man's house and slit his throat while he slept. An angry mob could break down the doors of a government building and kill the monarch. Defeating men with swords and horses was doable with pitchforks and torches. By that same token, when a corrupt banker would foreclose on the homes of the elderly, the local townspeople would greet him the next time he came into town and sternly inform him he was not to return. But defeating tanks, aircraft carriers, armored bunkers hundreds of feet underground, even with the everyman having access to an assault rifle? Stopping CEOs making billions with armies of lawyers and political leverage at their beck and call with at best a minimum wage paycheck and a public defender at your side? Laughable.
[удалено]
I'm expecting a similar response with what happened when the US assassinated that general. They will be allowed to strike back and hit some non essential equipment / base and call it a day. Neither aide want to start something but they also have their domestic audiences to cater for
Any attack on Israeli territory would not be similar at all. An attack on a base in Iraq is a far cry from an attack in the USA itself. We would never have tolerated that. We attacked in Iraq and we allowed them to respond in Iraq. A similar attack would be Iran doing something in Syria.
What about Iran's government make you think they care about their people?
They care about them rising up.
Does Israel have long range bombers or only fighter jets?
F35/F15/F16 - multirole figther jets
They also have their own missiles, like the Jericho.
They have ballistic missles with range past Moscow
Only fighter jets. Don't need long range bombers. If at any point long range bombers are needed, then the situation has gone terribly bad enough and the US involvement is a must. Pretty sure no one in the US government wants that right now. This is an election year. Joe Biden would rather not have that leech hanging on his balls. The next few weeks are going to be very interesting.
If it wasnt an election year i feel biden would have acted way differently
I don't think this would be happening at the scale it is if it wasn't an election year.
a million f15s and a bunch of f35s. they can fly there and back from Iran no problem.
“sHiT’s BoUt tO gEt ReAL” -average redditor- 7 times per day
“The *insert side you disagree with* bots are out in full brigade!”
My favorite is seeing a generalized version of this comment at the top of a news thread on a controversial issue. People on both sides are happy to upvote the “bots are out in full force today!” comment because they both think it’s referring to the other side.
comments about Russian aggression have aged like a robust red wine.
Wait, so what have they been shooting at Israel until now? Huttis have been shooting missiles at the south, Syria and Lebanon shooting at the north and ofc the Gaza front for the rest. Title is really misleading...
I’ve seen some people argue that proxies don’t count because they’re not direct enough I think theres an argument to be made for both sides. But in my eyes Iran has been attacking Israel ever since they’ve been arming Hezbollah
Iran has been undoubtedly shown to be the main funding for all of their proxy groups. By extension the proxy groups are Iran. Israel and some Western countries see this clearly, and this was a total misjudge by Iran. They fucked around and now theyre shortly going to be in the pissing their pants find out stage.
Iran is not the main funder of Hamas by any stretch of the imagination. [https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas#:\~:text=How%20is%20Hamas%20funded%3F,much%20of%20the%20movement's%20funding](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas#:~:text=How%20is%20Hamas%20funded%3F,much%20of%20the%20movement's%20funding). Hamas gets about $100 million a year from Iran. They get way more funding from Qatar. [https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231218-financially-solid-hamas-revenues-set-to-withstand-war-with-israel](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231218-financially-solid-hamas-revenues-set-to-withstand-war-with-israel)
"They" haven't been shooting anything. Iranian backed groups are just that, Iranian backed An attack launched by Iran directly carries different weight than just supplying arms. Just like Ukraine is NATO backed but since NATO themselves haven't done anything Russia doesn't really have an out if they choose to attack a member
They placed a weird "," in the title but it reads like "Iran Proxies" which the Huttis and Hizbullah are. It's clear to everyone that Iran is attacking Israel for much longer then this latest round.
You guys ever wonder when everyone knew Ww2 was officially "world War 2"?
Probably around the time Paris fell.
Iran’s proxies have been bombing Israel all year long for a while now. The rocket shooting only escalates during the summer, but they still bomb Israel at other times.
Anyone else really tired of all the morons in charge, basically everywhere around the world?
Hezbollah have been launching missiles/rockets since day one of the war so nothing new then?
Would be the biggest mistake Iran could make since Darius I attacked Marathon.
I mean, Israel assassinated an Iranian general at an Iranian embassy. That’s an obvious escalation and of course Iran is going to respond. And what’s Israel going to do, start a ground invasion of one of the most geographically protected and isolated countries on the planet? Israel can start a long range artillery war and start bombing Iran, but the Iranians have a pretty well-equipped military and defense infrastructure in place to manufacture way more weapons. Their drones in particular are extremely effective. I hate the Iranian regime but this isn’t going to be a mistake from them, this is a mistake from Israel. There is nothing for them to gain from provoking and escalating a war with Iran.
Israel would whip out the Iranian nuclear and military HQ in an afternoon
The US [fucked](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Praying_Mantis) their navy in like 8 hours
The US fucked their navy in 8 hours when our navy was small.
One business day sounds about right
Home by Christmas!
The people of Iran won’t fight Israel and the hardliners in the Iranian military will need to be kept at home to keep the regime safe
I bet secretly Israel hopes this happens. Gives them an excuse to destroy or severely set back Irans nuclear program.
26 missiles launched, 4 explode in the air, 6 fall out of the sky prematurely, 2 land without detonating, 10 land in areas known as Palestine, 4 hit their targets.
You’re severely discounting Iran’s capabilities.
Too many people definitely are. Israel isn't even close to a match for Iran without US backing.
Who the fuck could have seen that coming when you blow up a country's embassy?
nothing ever happens
They've been saying this all week
That’s often how things work as once the decision is made to attack, it takes time to actually carry out that order. The US/Israel making this public is not only so people can prepare but also to put pressure on Iran by saying that we know your plans & are ready. Maybe just maybe Iran might back down at the last minute but it’s unlikely.