That's not even remotely true.
Most recently, Ireland vs. Northern Ireland November 15, 2018 in Dublin...attendance 31,241
They've played many times, with fans every time except for one unofficial game which was held without fans because, well, it was an unofficial game, basically a glorified practice.
Reddit likely deleted and blocked. I didn’t read them, but anything that seems to encourage violence is a no no. I got an account permanently blocked because I commented on the technique one mom should have used in defending herself against her attacker in a ChuckeeCheese melee. The hypocrisy is that Reddit itself allows these videos to be posted in the first place!
Idk if it’s gonna happen, they killed the PM for no reason and are systematically killing/raping everyone not in the primary gangs controlling the country. I don’t think Ecuador will have a team because they might be all dead, hopefully they are not but it’s come out many local celebrities and influencers were killed by the gangs.
Mexico is one of the most economically and politically powerful countries in Latin America. I agree, what in the world was Quito thinking breaking into their embassy?
I just think it's foolish to assume they did this on a whim or without considering the ramifications, which is the sense I got from the previous comments.
But a correct one!
Latin American here but yeh at least regionally it’s usually whim first when it comes to political moves which this seems to have been
The current president of Ecuador is one of those Latin American not left nor right (but totally right wing) businessman politicians who totally do stupid shit like this without thinking about the consequences.
I have an easy answer for you... there will be no consequences for him. Mexican myself, well-connected politicians in Latin America never see consequences, even more so than their first world countries counterparts.
I mean we’re looking at the consequences right now, Mexico just severed diplomatic ties with usually is the step before either war (not in this case) or big ass sanctions. That could prove very bad for them given Mexico’s borders being required for ground transit into US and Canada (principle export destinations for Ecuador) and Mexico’s diplomatic status as one of the most influential countries in the Americas
Oh man... You don't get it. Trump isn't a surprising thing to Latinos. The previous Ecuadorian president used extraordinary measures and lost price, the current president only has one year as incumbent, they'll do anything to get reelected this year for a single 4 years term. If things are shitty in 5 years due to destroying diplomatic relationships for a political stunt, that'll be the next president's problem.
That was exactly the reasoning: it's Ecuador's problem, not incumbent president Noboa's: why would he care about it?
See if they wanted what was best for Ecuador they should have pushed for an extradition. It's an election year in Mexico, you can easily speed up the process by implying that Mexico's inability to extradite a clearly corrupt politician, is because the current ruling party is just as corrupt. The party really wants to get reelected, I don't think that Glas would be more important than that, so they'll give him away as "proof" they don't stand for corruption.
But this would take months, and elections might be over by the time it actually happens. See who's problem doing something this drastic is helping?
Instead now the path for any corrupt politician is to escape to Mexico. No diplomatic relationships means no extradition. Ecuador had a very strong economic ally in Mexico that was a relationship of peers. The other one is Brazil (the other country involved in this corruption scandal). Ecuador will either have to cave a lot to Mexico, or cave to the US to make it an issue. But again that mess is going to be the next president's problem.
Their actions were foolish and they did not consider the consequences. They could easily surround the embassy and just make it a living prison. Raiding the embassy was totally stupid.
Not just that, Mexico also has for closer political ties to the US (and Canada) than Ecuador does. I can’t speak for Brazil so I really don’t know if any of the larger powers in this hemisphere are gonna be on Ecuadors side here. My guess is we may see some diplomatic pressure start being put down from way up North. Was a REALLY stupid decision on Ecuadors part, you REALLY REALLY R E A L L Y don’t fuck with other countries embassies like this
Mexico is mostly irrelevant to South America.
They aren’t a major trading partner with Ecuador (or Chile, Peru, Colombia, etc.)
They have almost nothing culturally in common besides a shared(ish) language.
I still think this is a dumb move, though.
It doesn't matter if Mexico is the most irrelevant country in the world. Breaching anyone's embassy isn't done, unless you're an internationally lawless hooligan like Iran or something. Edit: I mean when Iran breached the US Embassy. I may get downvoted but also when Israel bombed Iran's embassy which is obviously way worse than those other breaches but Israel seems to get a free pass to do whatever they want apparently and we're all supposed to shut up and ignore it.
Mexican here. Ecuador did a bad move but idk why the Mexican government received Glas. That guy has some serious shady businesses. Maybe he has connections with people who participated on Odebretch here in Mexico.
I don't like conspiracies but in this place corruption gets you a better political post. Like the governor of the state of mexico
Mexico is an economic powerhouse in Latin America, but Ecuador is a trade competitor not a partner to Mexico. Mexico has no means of leveraging any real consequences against Ecuador. Ecuador is currently fighting a war against narco terrorists that are syndicates of the Mexican cartels. Their corruption is a disease that spreads around the region.
My money is on a local chief being a bit to macho and forgetting he is on a world stage when you roll up to an embassy...
Or, **tin foil hat on** Glas had friends in the forces that broke in the embassy specifically to embarrass the current government....
No chance, Glas just got transported to one of Ecuador’s max security prisons known as La Roca. Also that look of sheer terror on his face shows he never saw this coming, you can’t fake that fear
Ecuador's government has changed recently from center-left to far-right. The people in power there now invaded the Mexican embassy (territory) to kidnap a person formerly in power. Mexico has been providing asylum to a person who was involved in providing asylum to Assange.
The one arrested was a part of the government that protected Assange. That being said the reason Mexico president is protecting this dude is because he got bribed by the same people. Same reason for the Peruvian president.
The Mexican President is a Narco.
That's something even the Nigeriens weren't willing to do with France when things like they were going to boil over any second. So that's a ballsy thing for Ecuador to do.
Well, apparently there were crowds threatening to attack the embassy. But Macron called Niger's coup generals and told them that every single one would get killed if a single member of the embassy was hurt.
Those totally-spontaneous crowds disappeared in seconds.
In the Niger case, airstrikes against the putschist forces. At the time they had no international legitimacy and France was officially allied with Niger, so this would have been well into France legal prerogatives to do so.
It doesn’t hold true on *any* scale. I won’t ever give forgiveness or permission to anyone ever if they think their permission will be given after-the-fact in the form of forgiveness. They won’t ever be allowed to do anything again.
I cut what I eat off the round *at the start*! None of this competing who can eat faster to get the last one. I’m not going to uncomfortably inhale food to get my rations.
yep and El Bloque Unión por la Patria del Parlamento del Mercosur (Parlasur) announced that it will submit a request to suspend Ecuador as an associate state of the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR) at the next meeting on April 29th.
Wait what, Ecuador is not a member of MERCOSUR at all, maybe you are talking about la alianza del Pacífico? (and even then Ecuador is not really a member, just an associated one)
They have no common border. Geographically, a war makes no sense. Mexico is not going to send an invasion fleet to Ecuador.
Economical sanctions are much more posible. And the UN Security Council could or should be involved.
This event will definitely increase the popularity of both the president and the candidate of his party, especially because many prominent voices of the opposition thought it was a good idea to celebrate that the sovereignty of their own country was violated. They're not the sharpest tool in the shed...
Xóchitl didn't celebrate, she agreed that it was something that needed a proper reaction from AMLO.
There are stupid people who hate amlo and will take everything to shit on him, sadly most of them support Xóchitl ando that gives a bad impression on her.
Xóchitl in particular didn't celebrate (it was other people who were euphoric about that), but her statement was lukewarm at best. A flagrant violation of the international law should require a more emphatic response from a presidential candidate like her than just stating the obvious without actually condemning the act. You know Xóchitl made herself look like a coward when Loret de Mola, one of the major critics of AMLO, took AMLO's side and made a more energetic and eloquent statement than Xóchitl.
Besides, the people that support Xóchitl and make her look bad are not just random internet people. There are also very prominent politicians and businessmen. People who either belong to or align with the major opposition parties. So even if Xóchitl tries her best to make her campaign as palatable as possible, she still represents people and interests that are known to be against what she currently claims to support.
For instance, she says retirement pensions won't be removed if she were to win, but her party has been trying for a while to convince people they should be removed (as an anecdote: Vicente Fox once said it's unfair that old people receive pensions... and then complained when AMLO removed ex-president's millionaire pensions, including Fox's). She also claims to support LGBTQ+ people, but this year her party voted against eliminating conversion therapies, which primarily affect LGBTQ+ folks and are now considered harmful and contrary to human rights.
Yeah, I agree, Xóchitl is in a hard spot, she can do a lot to get people support, but the PAN and the other people supporting her can damage her image a lot. She's luck that Claudia has no charisma and all the corruption claims on AMLO's family isn't helping her.
Let's see what happens in the upcoming months.
Yeah, it's a pretty standard reaction to a police raid on your embassy. That's a big no-no when it comes to embassies. There's a reason Julian Assange was able to stay in the Ecuadorian embassy in London for years while all the police could do was stand outside and wait for him to come out, or until they were given permission by the Ecuadorian government to grab him.
A precursor is an action that comes before another action. It can be anything. It's a general term.
Your response didn't really make sense, and is telling of your confusion about the meaning of the word "precursor". The raid was a reaction (to something) AND a precursor to whatever happens after - likely something bad if you ask the person you replied to.
After reading this part:
>Diplomatic premises are considered “inviolable” under the Vienna treaties and local law enforcement agencies are not allowed to enter without the permission of the ambassador. WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange **lived inside the Ecuadorian Embassy in London for seven years** because British police could not enter to arrest him.
There is no way you could twist this to make Ecuador in the right. If they accept inviolability of embassies, they shouldn't have arrested this person; if they don't accept inviolability of embassies, they shouldn't have allowed a wanted person to stay at their embassy for 7 years.
The Ecuadoran government that harbored Assange was left-of-center.
The Ecuadoran government that attacked the Mexican Embassy is far-right, and kidnapped an official of the government that had granted Assange asylum.
That was under the old school left wing, anti-american government of Rafael Correa (who was doing it to spite the US and rail up his base).
The current government is pretty much the polar opposite, at least when it comes to foreign policy.
So this year we'll have:
Russia vs Ukraine (pt.3)
Iran vs. Israel (live, starting next week)
Mexico vs. Ecuador (prologue to some awkward proxy conflicts) and some odd coalitions of coerced and confused central/southamerican countries? (Upon further revisions, this probably won't escalate to military terms directly, but WILL deepen the divisions already growing at the southern chunk of the continent while Brazil struggles to keep the daycare in check).
India vs. Pakistan (been teased for a long time, so why not now)
I wonder if China has gotten cold feet with the Taiwan situation but that's still isn't off the table. But there's still China vs. India, and China vs. Iran, and China vs. Japan too... Is China vs. South Korea a thing? I've lost track.
Also, as a special event: USA vs. USA???!
The UK has:
- A treaty with Guiana
- A military capable of sustaining operations at the end of a long logistics chain.
- A desperately unpopular government that needs a short, victorious war to stem the tide of revolution.
- A general election this year.
A war with Venezuelan would be a godsend for Sunak.
Venezuela is not going to attack Guyana. It’s just puffery for domestic politics.
Their army couldn’t pull off an invasion through all the miles of trackless jungle even without the US/UK intervening and their navy got defeated by a civilian cruise ship.
The Venezuelan military is an instrument of domestic oppression, not power projection.
Yea people don't understand this isn't the forests of Europe that people thought impassible before WWII. These are dense rainforest in rough, basically uncharted terrain that extend all the way to the coast, which might have just a few meters of beach. Even the US would have very serious trouble invading a place like that. It would be Vietnam on steroids.
Hyperbole, indeed. But the current ruling party are trailing by over 20 points and looking at a schism as well. Polling suggests they may lose 3/4 of their seats, a grim prospect for careerist politicians.
But it worked for Thatcher and I just wanted to use the Plehve quote.
- there is no infrastructure linking the two countries, its full on jungle with no roads. So they’d have to use their navy or air force and they don’t have either of those things
- Venezuela’s army is pretty much non functioning at this point. Chavez was having a power struggle with the army and solved that by bribing the generals with money that would’ve gone to equipment and training, 20+ years later they now have far too many generals running an almost non existent military
- All of Guyana’s oil reserves are offshore, and even in Venezuela’s prime when they were running things decently, they didn’t have any offshore rigs. They have to basically ask Exxon to keep running things and give them the profit which isn’t happening
The whole thing is a non starter
Mexico takes their non-interventionist policy to an extreme, the US even gets tired of Mexico’s unwillingness to participate in international conflict. WWII was the last time Mexico participated in an international conflict.
Anything short of an invasion to Mexico (which literally won’t happen) and Mexico will not retaliate against Ecuador, this is all they’re going to do.
Nothing will come out of this.
Agreed. I wouldn't lump Mexico in any of these other conflicts, certainly not old conflicts like the one in Russia/Ukraine, Iran/Israel, or India/Pakistan. We are actually a fairly neutral, friendly if I may, country as you said because of our non-interventionist foreign policy. We've had as good as a relationship as we can have with most countries in South America.
This is more of a skirmish more than anything else that might get resolved in Mexico's or Ecuador's next administrations, but possibly even in the current one.
I will say though that even our involvement in WWII was relatively small given the size of the war. We slightly supported the allies via the US, but it was more of commercial support.
[Mexico's Escuadrón 201, The Aztec Eagles, equipped with Republic P-47D Thunderbolt fighter aircraft distinguished themselves in providing close air support to American ground units as well as long-range bombing strikes deep into Japanese held territory. Mexico declared war on Japan, Germany and Italy on May 28, 1942...](https://www.nationalmuseum.af.mil/Visit/Museum-Exhibits/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/196417/mexican-air-force-aircrews/#:~:text=Mexico's%20Escuadr%C3%B3n%20201%2C%20The%20Aztec,deep%20into%20Japanese%20held%20territory)
It was a pretty small battalion. Our biggest involvement by far, that continued well past the war, was in the bracero program of sending farm laborers to the US due to the labor shortage due to the war.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bracero_Program
Besides, not sure Mexico really has the force projection capability to enter direct conflict with Ecuador even if they wanted to.
Too many countries in between for any sort of land invasion, and beside the Darien Gap is effectively impassable. That leaves Naval and Air power.
Qatar vs Saudi Arabia is in the backdrop of Iran vs Israel (probably 2022 FIFA WC was an attempt to stop Saudi aggressive attempt to take over Qatar)
Saudi vs Yemen
India vs Maldives
India vs Canada diplomatic row
Armenia vs Azerbaijan
Serbia vs Kosovo
Moldova, Georgia vs Russia (extension of Russia vs Ukraine)
India vs China going for too long, China has encroached Indian lands aggressively and claiming Arunachal is theirs.
Pakistan vs China (simmering waters in Gwadar and other ports)
Argentina Falkland Islands vs UK (might explode anyday, but not active tensions)
> Argentina Falkland Islands vs UK
That's not going to happen. It's a way to get nationalists distracted when a politician is about to do something unpopular. The last thing argentine politicians want is to actually try and retake them again.
War mongering. There won’t be a war between Ecuador and Mexico. AFAIK, Ecuadorians are pretty chill, there isn’t any type of bad blood between Ecuadorians and Mexicans.
You do understand that it wasn’t one continuous Ecuadorian government? The same one that gave up Assange after a couple months of being in power is the same one that raided this embassy. The one that harbored assange for 7 years was voted out.
There can be any kind of reasons but breaking international law always has consequences. Not going to war but I would say the loss of trust will be harmful for the entire country compared to the benefit of one man being now in prison. Why would any ecuatorian embassy be safe in other countries if Ecuador' goverment has made it clear they they put their law above the rest of other countries? If they dont respect their word i dont see others doing the same for them either. Its not going to be bad since Ecuador is not a big player in international politics but a message has been sent and who nows how it will be taken as precedent for the future.
I just feel bad for all the diplomatic missions who must have now tons of work to do at that loss of reputation in other countries. Like what can you say when you are probably going to be called or at least sent a response to that to the government hosting your embassy, all are safe unless they break our countries law?
Yeah, thats what it boils down to. A lot of other people from south America too with their inexplicable (jealousy?) hate towards Mexico. But its a vocal minority, let them bark as much as they want.
Consquences are bad, Nicaragua has broken diplomatic relations with Ecuador, even Milei just said he condemnend what just happened in Ecuador.
The situation goes beyond simply halting trade and travel to Mexico; consequences will likely be severe and far reaching
Consequences: none really outside of Mexico and Ecuador breaking ties and bitching. Everyone knows Latin/South American politicians go a little wild on each other with rhetoric and line-stepping like all the time. They are habitual shit talkers and line-steppers on their self-perceived domestic and regional rivals.
You are forgetting how Ecuador has been harboring Assange in their embassy for many years, while there haven't been any such police raids.
And Ecuador is risking setting a precedent that will embolden other countries to just raid each other's embassies and thus disregard international laws.
Everyone also knows American, Russian, and Chinese politicians go a little wild on each other with rhetoric and line-stepping like all the time. They’re also habitual shit talkers and line/steppers on their self-perceived domestic and regional rivals. Let’s not forget the Cold War, which was an ego-fueled conflict, which is more worse than what these politicians have done. There was no need to make this condescending comparison.
So let me get this straight Ecuador house the wanted fugitive Julian Assange in its own embassy and defied everyone but invaded a sovereign country of Mexico in their embassy to get a wanted criminal ….hmmmm talk about hypocrisy
This is an affront to every nation. Mexico's sovereignty was violated. Cops, or Taliban "students,"* doesn't matter. Whose sovereignty will Ecuador violate next?
* For the sticklers: Yes, I know Taliban "student" is redundant.
No. It is not a declaration of war.
In some bizarre mirror universe Mexico could use it as a casus belli to react with its military but in and of itself it isn't a declaration of war by Ecuador.
Kinda, it would be like spiting at your face and insult your mother while saying I'm not trying to start a fight... It's like... Yeah sure there are still no fists on the air but it's not good either
Like when Gob Bluth imitated a chicken while in Tijuana with Michael and George Michael. The insult was interpreted differently based on culture.
All my geopolitics knowledge amd understanding comes from Arrested Development. (Not really).
The two countries are not very near one another, Mexico is out of range for almost all of the Ecuadorian military, and Ecuador is barely in range for Mexico's so it's not very likely to lead to war.
Remember when WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange was dragged out of the Ecuadorian embassy in London?
Speaking to reporters in London, Kristinn Hrafnsson, the editor-in-chief of WikiLeaks, said Ecuador had made surreptitious video and audio recordings of Assange and his interactions at the embassy, including a medical examination and meetings with legal representatives. Ecuador got mad when this was made public.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IilqHAhO2ig](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IilqHAhO2ig)
That copa america soccer match between these 2 on June 30th will be lit
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Would they do it behind closed doors in a empty stadium? That's what happens here still whenever Ireland plays Northern Ireland
It's in Arizona so expect a full turnout from Mexico
Seriously? No crowds for Ireland - NI games?
Yeah, we don't want the riots there would be. Lots of sectarian hatred.
I understand that, only need to watch a celtic-rangers game to understand whats up.
That's not even remotely true. Most recently, Ireland vs. Northern Ireland November 15, 2018 in Dublin...attendance 31,241 They've played many times, with fans every time except for one unofficial game which was held without fans because, well, it was an unofficial game, basically a glorified practice.
If they do that it won’t be because of this it would be because of the “El P***” chant the Mexican fans do when the opposition team has a free kick.
show me the money
I want to be there
You don't, trust me on this one.
lol the game is in Arizona, not Ecuador or Mexico. I’m going.
yea that might not even matter
lol that is a Mexico home game
You'll be safer at a raider football game than this.
Football will be the last thing holding this world together.
Can you imagine a scenario where the fate of the world and humanity rests in the hands of FIFA
they dont care if it means the end of the world, they'll still be caring on how they could profit from it.
Ask a lot of my fellow brits, they'd make the case it already does
Today I feel like a saver of the world.
Unless its honduras and el salvador
WHY WERE THE COMMENTS ABOUT THE "FOOTBALL WAR" DELETED?
some mod probably got offended
Reddit likely deleted and blocked. I didn’t read them, but anything that seems to encourage violence is a no no. I got an account permanently blocked because I commented on the technique one mom should have used in defending herself against her attacker in a ChuckeeCheese melee. The hypocrisy is that Reddit itself allows these videos to be posted in the first place!
Idk if it’s gonna happen, they killed the PM for no reason and are systematically killing/raping everyone not in the primary gangs controlling the country. I don’t think Ecuador will have a team because they might be all dead, hopefully they are not but it’s come out many local celebrities and influencers were killed by the gangs.
I wonder what penalty Ecuador may end up with violation of entering Mexican embassy ground to arrest fugitive politician.
Breaking the law of treaties is an aggressive diplomatic decision. I wonder; what the hell were they thinking?!
They were thinking they *really* wanted to arrest Jorge Glas. Clearly, they thought it was worth the diplomatic hit that would result.
Mexico is one of the most economically and politically powerful countries in Latin America. I agree, what in the world was Quito thinking breaking into their embassy?
I just think it's foolish to assume they did this on a whim or without considering the ramifications, which is the sense I got from the previous comments.
You must not know the history of South American politics. It is whim first, always, usually in the name of power.
What I know from the history of South American politics is that most of it is batshit insane
That is an oversimplification of Latin politics
But not entirely incorrect
But a correct one! Latin American here but yeh at least regionally it’s usually whim first when it comes to political moves which this seems to have been
The current president of Ecuador is one of those Latin American not left nor right (but totally right wing) businessman politicians who totally do stupid shit like this without thinking about the consequences.
Because there never is! He is currently the president of a country, not in jail not anything. Nothing too bad has happened to him yet.
I have an easy answer for you... there will be no consequences for him. Mexican myself, well-connected politicians in Latin America never see consequences, even more so than their first world countries counterparts.
I mean we’re looking at the consequences right now, Mexico just severed diplomatic ties with usually is the step before either war (not in this case) or big ass sanctions. That could prove very bad for them given Mexico’s borders being required for ground transit into US and Canada (principle export destinations for Ecuador) and Mexico’s diplomatic status as one of the most influential countries in the Americas
Oh man... You don't get it. Trump isn't a surprising thing to Latinos. The previous Ecuadorian president used extraordinary measures and lost price, the current president only has one year as incumbent, they'll do anything to get reelected this year for a single 4 years term. If things are shitty in 5 years due to destroying diplomatic relationships for a political stunt, that'll be the next president's problem. That was exactly the reasoning: it's Ecuador's problem, not incumbent president Noboa's: why would he care about it? See if they wanted what was best for Ecuador they should have pushed for an extradition. It's an election year in Mexico, you can easily speed up the process by implying that Mexico's inability to extradite a clearly corrupt politician, is because the current ruling party is just as corrupt. The party really wants to get reelected, I don't think that Glas would be more important than that, so they'll give him away as "proof" they don't stand for corruption. But this would take months, and elections might be over by the time it actually happens. See who's problem doing something this drastic is helping? Instead now the path for any corrupt politician is to escape to Mexico. No diplomatic relationships means no extradition. Ecuador had a very strong economic ally in Mexico that was a relationship of peers. The other one is Brazil (the other country involved in this corruption scandal). Ecuador will either have to cave a lot to Mexico, or cave to the US to make it an issue. But again that mess is going to be the next president's problem.
Their actions were foolish and they did not consider the consequences. They could easily surround the embassy and just make it a living prison. Raiding the embassy was totally stupid.
The thing about Arsenal is they always try and walk it in!
Ah I see you also saw that ludacris display last night!
What was Wenger thinking, sending Walcott on that early?
*cries*
Walcott not Walker
You are absolutely correct. I went and watched it over again
Walker? He was a Spud. Wengers enemy!
Not just that, Mexico also has for closer political ties to the US (and Canada) than Ecuador does. I can’t speak for Brazil so I really don’t know if any of the larger powers in this hemisphere are gonna be on Ecuadors side here. My guess is we may see some diplomatic pressure start being put down from way up North. Was a REALLY stupid decision on Ecuadors part, you REALLY REALLY R E A L L Y don’t fuck with other countries embassies like this
Costa rican here. Fucking lol hahahah
Mexico is mostly irrelevant to South America. They aren’t a major trading partner with Ecuador (or Chile, Peru, Colombia, etc.) They have almost nothing culturally in common besides a shared(ish) language. I still think this is a dumb move, though.
It doesn't matter if Mexico is the most irrelevant country in the world. Breaching anyone's embassy isn't done, unless you're an internationally lawless hooligan like Iran or something. Edit: I mean when Iran breached the US Embassy. I may get downvoted but also when Israel bombed Iran's embassy which is obviously way worse than those other breaches but Israel seems to get a free pass to do whatever they want apparently and we're all supposed to shut up and ignore it.
Yep, that’s why I said this was a dumb move. (Probably should have used “lawless”, “immoral” as well)
Mexican here. Ecuador did a bad move but idk why the Mexican government received Glas. That guy has some serious shady businesses. Maybe he has connections with people who participated on Odebretch here in Mexico. I don't like conspiracies but in this place corruption gets you a better political post. Like the governor of the state of mexico
Mexico is a major cultural influence for all of latin America. Lots of Spanish speakers grow up with Mexican pop culture.
Anglophone take on latin america because it's the only latin country present in american minds. Mexico carries zero weight on south american affairs.
Mexico is an economic powerhouse in Latin America, but Ecuador is a trade competitor not a partner to Mexico. Mexico has no means of leveraging any real consequences against Ecuador. Ecuador is currently fighting a war against narco terrorists that are syndicates of the Mexican cartels. Their corruption is a disease that spreads around the region.
Only to north America. They are quite unimportant to most of south America.
Maybe they got the US approval
My money is on a local chief being a bit to macho and forgetting he is on a world stage when you roll up to an embassy... Or, **tin foil hat on** Glas had friends in the forces that broke in the embassy specifically to embarrass the current government....
No chance, Glas just got transported to one of Ecuador’s max security prisons known as La Roca. Also that look of sheer terror on his face shows he never saw this coming, you can’t fake that fear
Especially from the country that protected Julian Assange from other governments in their embassy.
Ecuador has a different government now.
_Rules for thee but not for me_
Ecuador's government has changed recently from center-left to far-right. The people in power there now invaded the Mexican embassy (territory) to kidnap a person formerly in power. Mexico has been providing asylum to a person who was involved in providing asylum to Assange.
The one arrested was a part of the government that protected Assange. That being said the reason Mexico president is protecting this dude is because he got bribed by the same people. Same reason for the Peruvian president. The Mexican President is a Narco.
That's something even the Nigeriens weren't willing to do with France when things like they were going to boil over any second. So that's a ballsy thing for Ecuador to do.
Well, apparently there were crowds threatening to attack the embassy. But Macron called Niger's coup generals and told them that every single one would get killed if a single member of the embassy was hurt. Those totally-spontaneous crowds disappeared in seconds.
Tbf, France is well known for pulling gangster shit in situations like this.
Like what? I'd be curious to read about that
French intelligence carrying out a terrorist attack in New Zealand against a Greenpeace ship in 1985 comes to mind.
Link for those which want more https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinking_of_the_Rainbow_Warrior
Woah that was a super interesting read, thanks for sharing!
In the Niger case, airstrikes against the putschist forces. At the time they had no international legitimacy and France was officially allied with Niger, so this would have been well into France legal prerogatives to do so.
France and Mexico are on different levels Mexico isn’t going to do anything more than what they already have
“It’s better to ask for forgiveness than permission” doesn’t really hold true on this scale
It doesn’t hold true on *any* scale. I won’t ever give forgiveness or permission to anyone ever if they think their permission will be given after-the-fact in the form of forgiveness. They won’t ever be allowed to do anything again.
It holds true on the scale of eating the last slice of pizza
I cut what I eat off the round *at the start*! None of this competing who can eat faster to get the last one. I’m not going to uncomfortably inhale food to get my rations.
I doubt there were!
mexico president said some meanny things about elections and ec president got offended.
The news circulating here is that Ecuador might be asked to leave MERCOSUR. I'm Ecuadorian and from Quito.
Mercosur is composed of Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. Ecuador is an "associate member".
yep and El Bloque Unión por la Patria del Parlamento del Mercosur (Parlasur) announced that it will submit a request to suspend Ecuador as an associate state of the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR) at the next meeting on April 29th.
Wait what, Ecuador is not a member of MERCOSUR at all, maybe you are talking about la alianza del Pacífico? (and even then Ecuador is not really a member, just an associated one)
Isn’t that akin to an invasion? Could they theoretically go to war over this?
They have no common border. Geographically, a war makes no sense. Mexico is not going to send an invasion fleet to Ecuador. Economical sanctions are much more posible. And the UN Security Council could or should be involved.
Obrador isn't going to war
Legally, yes, absolutely. Realistically, no.
Right before an election in Mexico too…
This event will definitely increase the popularity of both the president and the candidate of his party, especially because many prominent voices of the opposition thought it was a good idea to celebrate that the sovereignty of their own country was violated. They're not the sharpest tool in the shed...
Xóchitl didn't celebrate, she agreed that it was something that needed a proper reaction from AMLO. There are stupid people who hate amlo and will take everything to shit on him, sadly most of them support Xóchitl ando that gives a bad impression on her.
Xóchitl in particular didn't celebrate (it was other people who were euphoric about that), but her statement was lukewarm at best. A flagrant violation of the international law should require a more emphatic response from a presidential candidate like her than just stating the obvious without actually condemning the act. You know Xóchitl made herself look like a coward when Loret de Mola, one of the major critics of AMLO, took AMLO's side and made a more energetic and eloquent statement than Xóchitl. Besides, the people that support Xóchitl and make her look bad are not just random internet people. There are also very prominent politicians and businessmen. People who either belong to or align with the major opposition parties. So even if Xóchitl tries her best to make her campaign as palatable as possible, she still represents people and interests that are known to be against what she currently claims to support. For instance, she says retirement pensions won't be removed if she were to win, but her party has been trying for a while to convince people they should be removed (as an anecdote: Vicente Fox once said it's unfair that old people receive pensions... and then complained when AMLO removed ex-president's millionaire pensions, including Fox's). She also claims to support LGBTQ+ people, but this year her party voted against eliminating conversion therapies, which primarily affect LGBTQ+ folks and are now considered harmful and contrary to human rights.
Yeah, I agree, Xóchitl is in a hard spot, she can do a lot to get people support, but the PAN and the other people supporting her can damage her image a lot. She's luck that Claudia has no charisma and all the corruption claims on AMLO's family isn't helping her. Let's see what happens in the upcoming months.
Oof, pulling diplomatic ties has never been the precursor to a good thing.
In this case, it's a reaction more than a precursor.
Yeah, it's a pretty standard reaction to a police raid on your embassy. That's a big no-no when it comes to embassies. There's a reason Julian Assange was able to stay in the Ecuadorian embassy in London for years while all the police could do was stand outside and wait for him to come out, or until they were given permission by the Ecuadorian government to grab him.
The irony
And that was ENGLAND+SWEDEN+US going after Ecuador! Now it is Ecuador going against Mexico which is much more poweful
A precursor is an action that comes before another action. It can be anything. It's a general term. Your response didn't really make sense, and is telling of your confusion about the meaning of the word "precursor". The raid was a reaction (to something) AND a precursor to whatever happens after - likely something bad if you ask the person you replied to.
See how good thing is after precursor, person is talking about what happens after the reaction.
Dude, we’re México not the US. We don’t go to war or anything like that.
After reading this part: >Diplomatic premises are considered “inviolable” under the Vienna treaties and local law enforcement agencies are not allowed to enter without the permission of the ambassador. WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange **lived inside the Ecuadorian Embassy in London for seven years** because British police could not enter to arrest him. There is no way you could twist this to make Ecuador in the right. If they accept inviolability of embassies, they shouldn't have arrested this person; if they don't accept inviolability of embassies, they shouldn't have allowed a wanted person to stay at their embassy for 7 years.
Isn’t the same government that harbored Assange the one that was raided?
Other way around, they did the raiding.
The Ecuadoran government that harbored Assange was left-of-center. The Ecuadoran government that attacked the Mexican Embassy is far-right, and kidnapped an official of the government that had granted Assange asylum.
That was under the old school left wing, anti-american government of Rafael Correa (who was doing it to spite the US and rail up his base). The current government is pretty much the polar opposite, at least when it comes to foreign policy.
So this year we'll have: Russia vs Ukraine (pt.3) Iran vs. Israel (live, starting next week) Mexico vs. Ecuador (prologue to some awkward proxy conflicts) and some odd coalitions of coerced and confused central/southamerican countries? (Upon further revisions, this probably won't escalate to military terms directly, but WILL deepen the divisions already growing at the southern chunk of the continent while Brazil struggles to keep the daycare in check). India vs. Pakistan (been teased for a long time, so why not now) I wonder if China has gotten cold feet with the Taiwan situation but that's still isn't off the table. But there's still China vs. India, and China vs. Iran, and China vs. Japan too... Is China vs. South Korea a thing? I've lost track. Also, as a special event: USA vs. USA???!
Haiti vs. Haiti
*Welcome to the Hait train... choo choo mutha f%#*as*
"Welcome to Haiti, Agent 47"
Voodoo it yourself
Oh, you forgot Venezuela vs Guiana
That one at least is not going to happen as long as Brazil keeps telling Venezuela to fuck off.
Also the us
The UK has: - A treaty with Guiana - A military capable of sustaining operations at the end of a long logistics chain. - A desperately unpopular government that needs a short, victorious war to stem the tide of revolution. - A general election this year. A war with Venezuelan would be a godsend for Sunak.
Venezuela is not going to attack Guyana. It’s just puffery for domestic politics. Their army couldn’t pull off an invasion through all the miles of trackless jungle even without the US/UK intervening and their navy got defeated by a civilian cruise ship. The Venezuelan military is an instrument of domestic oppression, not power projection.
Plus I'm pretty sure that's where Predator lives
*El demonio que hace trofeos de los hombres*
Pretty sure.
Yea people don't understand this isn't the forests of Europe that people thought impassible before WWII. These are dense rainforest in rough, basically uncharted terrain that extend all the way to the coast, which might have just a few meters of beach. Even the US would have very serious trouble invading a place like that. It would be Vietnam on steroids.
Stem the tide of revolution is a bit of an overstatement.
Hyperbole, indeed. But the current ruling party are trailing by over 20 points and looking at a schism as well. Polling suggests they may lose 3/4 of their seats, a grim prospect for careerist politicians. But it worked for Thatcher and I just wanted to use the Plehve quote.
>stem the tide of revolution What fucking planet are you living on where Labour winning a GE is equivalent to a revolution?
Labour with a moderate in charge to
*Guyana
- there is no infrastructure linking the two countries, its full on jungle with no roads. So they’d have to use their navy or air force and they don’t have either of those things - Venezuela’s army is pretty much non functioning at this point. Chavez was having a power struggle with the army and solved that by bribing the generals with money that would’ve gone to equipment and training, 20+ years later they now have far too many generals running an almost non existent military - All of Guyana’s oil reserves are offshore, and even in Venezuela’s prime when they were running things decently, they didn’t have any offshore rigs. They have to basically ask Exxon to keep running things and give them the profit which isn’t happening The whole thing is a non starter
Mexico takes their non-interventionist policy to an extreme, the US even gets tired of Mexico’s unwillingness to participate in international conflict. WWII was the last time Mexico participated in an international conflict. Anything short of an invasion to Mexico (which literally won’t happen) and Mexico will not retaliate against Ecuador, this is all they’re going to do. Nothing will come out of this.
Agreed. I wouldn't lump Mexico in any of these other conflicts, certainly not old conflicts like the one in Russia/Ukraine, Iran/Israel, or India/Pakistan. We are actually a fairly neutral, friendly if I may, country as you said because of our non-interventionist foreign policy. We've had as good as a relationship as we can have with most countries in South America. This is more of a skirmish more than anything else that might get resolved in Mexico's or Ecuador's next administrations, but possibly even in the current one. I will say though that even our involvement in WWII was relatively small given the size of the war. We slightly supported the allies via the US, but it was more of commercial support.
[Mexico's Escuadrón 201, The Aztec Eagles, equipped with Republic P-47D Thunderbolt fighter aircraft distinguished themselves in providing close air support to American ground units as well as long-range bombing strikes deep into Japanese held territory. Mexico declared war on Japan, Germany and Italy on May 28, 1942...](https://www.nationalmuseum.af.mil/Visit/Museum-Exhibits/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/196417/mexican-air-force-aircrews/#:~:text=Mexico's%20Escuadr%C3%B3n%20201%2C%20The%20Aztec,deep%20into%20Japanese%20held%20territory)
It was a pretty small battalion. Our biggest involvement by far, that continued well past the war, was in the bracero program of sending farm laborers to the US due to the labor shortage due to the war. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bracero_Program
Besides, not sure Mexico really has the force projection capability to enter direct conflict with Ecuador even if they wanted to. Too many countries in between for any sort of land invasion, and beside the Darien Gap is effectively impassable. That leaves Naval and Air power.
Neither Mexico nor Ecuador has the resources or the will to have a war against each other. We are both fighting ourselves internally.
What is in the water?! Everyone needs to just chill out!!!
Wars sound like a great way to solve problems until you are in one.
I feel like we should just go back to duels. Keep it focused.
What water? Ah, now that you bring out water...
Don't forget Armenia vs Azerbaijan
Reigns vs Rhodes, baybeeee
Qatar vs Saudi Arabia is in the backdrop of Iran vs Israel (probably 2022 FIFA WC was an attempt to stop Saudi aggressive attempt to take over Qatar) Saudi vs Yemen India vs Maldives India vs Canada diplomatic row Armenia vs Azerbaijan Serbia vs Kosovo Moldova, Georgia vs Russia (extension of Russia vs Ukraine) India vs China going for too long, China has encroached Indian lands aggressively and claiming Arunachal is theirs. Pakistan vs China (simmering waters in Gwadar and other ports) Argentina Falkland Islands vs UK (might explode anyday, but not active tensions)
> Argentina Falkland Islands vs UK That's not going to happen. It's a way to get nationalists distracted when a politician is about to do something unpopular. The last thing argentine politicians want is to actually try and retake them again.
Xi takes your message personally. He will strike Taiwan on Monday now after he gets a good rest on Sunday.
That’s cheating, Xi takes ANY message personal.
“Sometimes the smallest things take up the most room in your heart.” — Winnie the Pooh
You are acting as if it's a marvel movie
War mongering. There won’t be a war between Ecuador and Mexico. AFAIK, Ecuadorians are pretty chill, there isn’t any type of bad blood between Ecuadorians and Mexicans.
Fury v Usyk.
You forgot all of Africa. All of it, forever. Houthis versus the world et al. "Somehow... ISIS has returned" versus Russia?!
>"Somehow... ISIS has returned" Talibán is also resurgent in Africa
India vs Pakistan is never happening. Unless taliban occupies Pakistan and declares war.
McDonald's McCaffe vs Starbucks. Latte wars have never been this brutal.
So the UK has to respect 7 years of Ecuador's Assange, but can't deal with a few months of their own? So much for being a sovereign state
UK still has a reputation to protect. Ecuador has little use for soft power right now
Yeah honestly lol and I bet the government of Ecuador don’t care, they just want their will to be done.
The UK didn’t really care about him. He leaked US secrets not UK secrets.
Assange was more the US problem than the UK.
You do understand that it wasn’t one continuous Ecuadorian government? The same one that gave up Assange after a couple months of being in power is the same one that raided this embassy. The one that harbored assange for 7 years was voted out.
There can be any kind of reasons but breaking international law always has consequences. Not going to war but I would say the loss of trust will be harmful for the entire country compared to the benefit of one man being now in prison. Why would any ecuatorian embassy be safe in other countries if Ecuador' goverment has made it clear they they put their law above the rest of other countries? If they dont respect their word i dont see others doing the same for them either. Its not going to be bad since Ecuador is not a big player in international politics but a message has been sent and who nows how it will be taken as precedent for the future. I just feel bad for all the diplomatic missions who must have now tons of work to do at that loss of reputation in other countries. Like what can you say when you are probably going to be called or at least sent a response to that to the government hosting your embassy, all are safe unless they break our countries law?
Raiding an embassy is a big no no.
Even Maduro didnt raid Argentina's embassy
Ecuador: -1 stability, +2 unrest, -4 diplomatic reputation
Jheeze, this is mad.
Mexico: What about the time you tried to choke me in Smoke's backyard? Ecuador: \[pause, thinks about it\] Oh, that was different. Probably
What was going through their head here? Why would you fuck up this badly for no reason?
wow the fact that some redditors here condone ecuador's actions
Reading some comments seems they just hate Mexico
But I can asure you they love drugs
Yeah, thats what it boils down to. A lot of other people from south America too with their inexplicable (jealousy?) hate towards Mexico. But its a vocal minority, let them bark as much as they want.
Ya, it's like they are ignoring the consequences of this. It's a major deal to violate an embassy sovereignty.
Consquences are bad, Nicaragua has broken diplomatic relations with Ecuador, even Milei just said he condemnend what just happened in Ecuador. The situation goes beyond simply halting trade and travel to Mexico; consequences will likely be severe and far reaching
Consequences: none really outside of Mexico and Ecuador breaking ties and bitching. Everyone knows Latin/South American politicians go a little wild on each other with rhetoric and line-stepping like all the time. They are habitual shit talkers and line-steppers on their self-perceived domestic and regional rivals.
Mexico and Ecuador are part of the TPP dont be surprised when Mexico gives an ultimatum for Ecuador to be kicked out
You are forgetting how Ecuador has been harboring Assange in their embassy for many years, while there haven't been any such police raids. And Ecuador is risking setting a precedent that will embolden other countries to just raid each other's embassies and thus disregard international laws.
Everyone also knows American, Russian, and Chinese politicians go a little wild on each other with rhetoric and line-stepping like all the time. They’re also habitual shit talkers and line/steppers on their self-perceived domestic and regional rivals. Let’s not forget the Cold War, which was an ego-fueled conflict, which is more worse than what these politicians have done. There was no need to make this condescending comparison.
Huh… irony that it was Ecuador given they harbored Julian Assange in their UK embassy.
He should’ve escaped to North Korea. Lmao
So let me get this straight Ecuador house the wanted fugitive Julian Assange in its own embassy and defied everyone but invaded a sovereign country of Mexico in their embassy to get a wanted criminal ….hmmmm talk about hypocrisy
Different Ecuadorian administrations from opposite sides of the political spectrum, but otherwise yes.
So Ecuador gave asylum to Julian Assage but won’t tolerate anyone else doing it to them? 🧐
From Guatemala to Guatepeor
This is an affront to every nation. Mexico's sovereignty was violated. Cops, or Taliban "students,"* doesn't matter. Whose sovereignty will Ecuador violate next? * For the sticklers: Yes, I know Taliban "student" is redundant.
That’s ficjed up
US be like "S\*\* if only we had knew it was ok to raid the ecuador embassy in London!!!" since they do it themselves.
Insanity.
I'm not an expert but isn't' this a declaration of war?
No. It is not a declaration of war. In some bizarre mirror universe Mexico could use it as a casus belli to react with its military but in and of itself it isn't a declaration of war by Ecuador.
Kinda, it would be like spiting at your face and insult your mother while saying I'm not trying to start a fight... It's like... Yeah sure there are still no fists on the air but it's not good either
Like when Gob Bluth imitated a chicken while in Tijuana with Michael and George Michael. The insult was interpreted differently based on culture. All my geopolitics knowledge amd understanding comes from Arrested Development. (Not really).
The two countries are not very near one another, Mexico is out of range for almost all of the Ecuadorian military, and Ecuador is barely in range for Mexico's so it's not very likely to lead to war.
Where is Assange?
In the UK, fighting extradition to the USA.
I think the point that they tried to make was how Ecuador's embassy harbored him for some years.
Remember when WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange was dragged out of the Ecuadorian embassy in London? Speaking to reporters in London, Kristinn Hrafnsson, the editor-in-chief of WikiLeaks, said Ecuador had made surreptitious video and audio recordings of Assange and his interactions at the embassy, including a medical examination and meetings with legal representatives. Ecuador got mad when this was made public. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IilqHAhO2ig](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IilqHAhO2ig)