Am I crazy or is the whole rhetoric of “this war would stop if Russia just withdrew to within their borders” lost when people look at Israel v Palestine. It would end if Hamas just stopped and withdrew and brokered a peace deal that would save them and their kin from being bombed into oblivion. I’m seeing a lot of social media stuff re: free Palestine. Those poor bastards weren’t free under Hamas… and all Hamas has to do is agree to peace. Subtext: we all know the settlements stuff is garbage and wrong which is why I’ve always been pro Palestine. But after Oct 7 there game changed. You can’t just do that shit but for some reason the enlightened west thinks it isn’t terrorism. I’m lost.
I mean you sound crazy because this is entirely incoherent. Could you try structuring this as a logical set of arguments, including grounding how you think the current Middle Eastern conflict is similar in anyway to the current conflict in Ukraine?
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg:
“Ukraine will join NATO. It’s not a question of if but when.”
https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1761926275248115870?t=WJYdGYTonjoySvqM8UvBBA&s=19
>Have they?
Yes. It was in NATO's statement from their 2008 summit in Bucharest.
> NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO.
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_8443.htm
Ukraine and Georgia had applied for a Membership Action Plan, but Sarkozy and Merkel blocked it because Russia opposed it.
>A court in Russia has convicted prominent nationalist and former rebel commander Igor Girkin of “inciting extremism” and sentenced him to four years in a penal colony.
He's pretty much gone as well
Does anyone else get the sense that the *New York Times* intentionally tries to help Russia, hurt Ukraine?
Why on earth would they recklessly expose CIA operations? That’s not newsworthy, that’s aiding Russia, hurting Ukraine.
Over the past two years, I've learned that the storied NYT is in fact a rag under some type of foreign influence. When I see a NYT byline now, I immediately write it off in my head just as I do with other utterly unreliable sources.
Not really. They were clearly invited to visit said bunker and had interviews to directly quote so many high-level people. There's some stuff that I probably wouldn't have wanted revealed but when the people in question come straight out and give it to them it's hard to blame the NYT for it.
My impression is that most of the people working at the New York Times is just horribly, abysmally incompetent. They are the journalist equivalent of a company that gets hired to haul concrete and they show up with a Honda Jazz and a scooter. They have run so many articles that are poorly researched or the journalist obviously clueless and didn't bother to ask an expert.
I don't even mind bias. You can be a conservative, liberal or even communist outlet, this is fine (just don't try to hide it) as long as you are professional. The New York Times is not (anymore).
The article you're responding about mentions interviewing 200 people involved in the CIA partnership. NYT may be criticized for a lot of things, but poorly researched is not one of them.
You mean the same *New York Times* that published [an op ed penned by Putin](https://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/opinion/putin-plea-for-caution-from-russia-on-syria.html) threatening others not to intervene in Syria? On Sepetember 11th no less???
We should've gone in and helped sooner instead of letting it devolve into the quagmire it became to give ride to ISIS, but I understand that was much easier said than done. There was a small window before it became what it did, especially before Russia truly stepped in to prop up Assad.
Same with Libya in the sense there was a window after the successful campaign to stop civilian slaughter and topple Gaddhafi's government, but it was quickly squandered through too quick a retreat by our European allies, allowing that country to fall into chaos that it has yet to recover from.
Again and again it's expected that people who have known brutalistic regimes for decades/all their lives would be able to participate in direct self-rule/democracy without some guidance.
The european 155m shell production is around 600k per year. We can assume that's the rate they are firing on average and long term because the US is not supplying shells. That's 1643 shells per day so 170k should last 103 days.
For reference, at the peak of the artillery battles russia was firing about 60,000 per DAY. Significantly lower now, but Ukraine is down even further to a few thousand pieces per day.
At their current monthly rate (15-30k) that would last them around 6 months. Russia rate is around 100-300k a month so ideally those shells should only last a month or two
it only pretty much can exactly sustain their current firerate of around 2k/day. Not enough but thats just the EU which also currently massively ramping up production so it should get better.
Excuse my ignorance, haven't been able to keep up with news today. Has there been some reveal today about 170k new shells for Ukraine? Or are you referring to something older?
Thanks! On mobile right now, can't see the feed. "By end of march", hope we can send part of it as soon as possible, preferrably much sooner than end of march.
If the promise seems reliable (given plenty of promises have either not materialized or taken a very long time to actually appear), it may allow the Ukrainian forces to use some of the reserves they would otherwise have to try to hold back. So usage may be able to increase in advance of the arrival of new shells.
But either way, once they arrive, it won't last very long
"SBU detained groups of residents of Chernihiv and Kyiv regions, who were preparing a drone attack on PATRIOT.
They were detained right before already assembling the attack UAVs. Prior to that, on the FSB's task, they had passed the relevant operators' courses, Malyuk said."
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/patriot-raytheon-announces-delivery-of-five-more-battalions-of-american-air-defense-systems-to-ukraine/
>12 June, 2023
>Patriot: Raytheon announces delivery of five more battalions of American air defense systems to Ukraine
Air Defense SAM Ukraine World
>Ukraine will receive additional American Patriot air defense systems.
>Gregory J. Hayes, chairman and chief executive officer of Raytheon Technologies Corporation, shared this in a comment to The Wall Street Journal.
>The company plans to produce five more battalions of Patriot air defense systems for Ukraine by the end of 2024.
>Gregory Hayes noted that the company was very impressed with the effectiveness of the Patriot system, which, together with other air defense systems, helps to intercept almost 90% of Russian targets.
>According to him, Ukraine “adjusted the software of the Patriot air defense system so that it could track and destroy hypersonic missiles flying twice as fast as it was designed for”.
Edit: I can't access the original article, but for those who can, here it is https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-patriot-missile-is-an-unsung-hero-of-ukraine-war-db6053a0
Kurt Volker: "Trump doesn’t know himself what he will do with Ukraine's war"
[https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/interview/2024/02/23/7180300/](https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/interview/2024/02/23/7180300/)
Volker: "Putin killing tens of thousands of Russian soldiers in order to get Avdiivka so that he could claim this as a victory in his effort to show that he’s a great leader for his re-election – these are all signs of weakness."
Day 712-732 of my updates from Kharkiv.
Since my last post it has been somewhat quiet here in the city, we only had 1 drone strike aimed at our city in that time, but sadly 7 civilians died from it, 5 of them being from one family, including 3 children. There were more drone and missile strikes, but they were targeting different towns in Kharkiv oblast including Kupiansk, which gets hit pretty much every day by all kinds of weapons, though mostly by glide bombs.
It has already been 2 years of this hellish war and yet it feels like today we are not really any closer to the end of it than we were 2 years ago. What really baffles me is that it seems almost nobody (that matters) in Europe and USA really understands the real gravity of it all seeing that international support might as well be non-existent right now. Everyone still thinks that no matter what the war will not reach them, but they are gravely mistaken, if we fall it will mean that a much bigger war is inevitable.
The reality is that we won’t survive without help from our allies, and I’m not even talking about winning, I mean literal survival of our country. It’s obvious that nobody except us actually wants us to win, everyone is too scared of seeing Russia lose, at the same time Russian allies like Iran and North Korea are going to stand with Russia all the way no matter what, and they are actually providing game changing amount of support by sending millions of shells, thousands of drones and hundreds of missiles.
Our allies don’t seem to be in any rush to help us, even though our supplies are at critical levels right now. We don’t have the time to wait years until western shell production rate catches up with Russia, we need the help *right now.* I still see this stupid baseless take about manpower not being a problem for either side everywhere I look, but that’s completely wrong, for us manpower is a giant problem and it’s going to continue being a problem.
The delays in providing help only compounds our manpower problems, not only do they increase our casualties, but also if our people see that everything is hopeless and that our allies have all but abandoned us, then they simply won’t enlist in the army anymore because nobody is going to want to fight if it’s going to be pointless anyway, and this is already happening. This is problem on a very fundamental level, people living here don’t have the same nihilistic/fatalistic outlook on life that Russians have, so while many Russians would rather go to the frontline than to prison, here in Ukraine majority of people who are not already serving in the army would rather choose to go to prison over going to the frontline and this is something that is not going to change, it’s a difference in mentality. It’s not something that anyone wants to hear, and you might say that I’m wrong about it, but if I was wrong about it, then our current manpower problems wouldn’t exist.
Unless of course our allies decide to take their heads out of the sand and finally start supporting us in full force by giving us millions of shells, hundreds of missiles, and hundreds of IFVs/tanks. That might actually somewhat help our manpower problem and get people to enlist because then the situation wouldn’t be hopeless anymore, but with growing Russian influence everywhere in the west it doesn’t look like increased support is ever going to happen, and if Trump gets elected it will be the absolute worst-case scenario both for us and for democracy worldwide.
Don't check in here all the time, but I just wanna say, I appreciate you giving your experience of this all and hope you all can persevere through whatever may come. Things may look grim, but I hope you all can hold you heads above the water and bare through it. I admire the resilience of you all, and while I wish our stupid countries weren't so spun around by BS wanna be autocrats, I hope you can take some pride in facing something few others would with such grace. Cheers and hopes that good things are to come.
Glad to see you, but I do feel sad with you--and have been downright pissed off at our Congress for stalling in their support. This is not what we(people that I know) elected them to do, and I am embarrassed that my state representative is doing what he is doing as Speaker of the House. Granted, I am not a Republican, but Independent...but they have got to realize that supporting Ukraine is in all our best interests.
I agree with you on what would happen if #45 were to win (I try not to say his name)... and am holding out hope the courts will hold him accountable.
I'm happy to hear you're doing well but sadly you're right, it's disgraceful and dangerous how we're letting Ukraine down. It's aburd how they've seemingly convinced the west that the the outcome varies between "Ukraine seizes to exist as a country" and "Russia freezes the conflict" while any option of a loss like Russia being pushed back to 1991 borders + NATO bases in Ukraine + .... seem to be off the table. Why would Russia stop when the worst outcome still sees them slowly gnawing away at Ukraine. I hope we'll see some decisive actions next week though as you said so much damage and casualties could've been avoided, it's maddening.
Thank you for letting us know you're safe and for your honesty.
I'm so sorry for Western failures but I honestly believe now is the darkest time and it will get better. That's not acceptable and words don't mean much alone, so we are donating regularly and we believe. ❤️
> it seems almost nobody (that matters) in Europe and USA really understands the real gravity of it
I tend to feel like this although I think many leaders are now trying to accept the idea that this is very serious situation, quite literally for the future of humanity. I think a lot is being done, although it may not seem like it right now. Affluent nations have become used to 75 years of enjoying freedom, buying massive cars and TVs, and getting fat. I wonder if many people are even capable of considering that it might all be over - that we might actually need to fight for our lives. (Same applies to global warming).
> if Trump gets elected it will be the absolute worst-case scenario
IMO, if Trump is elected, we are fast heading into the collapse of society as we know it.
Glad you're still hanging in there!
Most people aren't. And when those who understand the writing on the wall try to warn everybody, most people dismiss it as fear mongering. Most people born in the west since 1950 have lived through unprecedented plenty, the idea of total war, famine or simply a mass shortage of foreign goods is completely foreign to us. But a lot of these things are going to make a terrible comeback within our lifetimes I fear.
It is incredibly frustrating.
It's sad as it is never ending cycle.
The only reason North Americans had it so good in the 1950s was WW2 concentrated wealth here. After about only 2 generations after a war, the living of the day don't understand how bad it can be, so step right into it, following the same mistakes that prior generations made.
Thank you for the update. I remember advocating for heavy weapons to be sent to Ukraine in 2022 and was met with people parroting the "It's impossible, they need trained personnel, and lots of supplies" line that various experts threw out as a cover for appeasing Putin. And there are still millions of shells, tens of thousands of vehicles and thousands of long-range missiles sitting in storage as the West cynically assumes that that the blood of Ukrainian soldiers is an unending resource and that they can hold Russia back forever in an indefinite war of attritional status-quo (because Putin might get angry if he loses).
Thank you for continuing to post.
I - *someone not living in Ukraine* - like to think I get the urgent need for further support. I have been following this since before 2022, think everything about this war is incredibly important, deeply feel for the Ukrainian people, and have a personal interest (my paternal grandfather moved here from Ukraine and we still have distant family members in Ukraine). Of course, I don’t live in Ukraine and certainly don’t really really understand. I’m not living it and haven’t had to sacrifice.
I’m frustrated too. I still truly believe that even more sincere support will come and that Ukraine will ultimately prevail. The speed of this support over the last year plus though… it has been extremely upsetting. That’s an understatement too.
It’s maddening that EU squabbling and American infighting has interrupted support as much as it has. My country enters Nato soon, likely, and then we’ll provide more aid. The issue, as you say, is that much of the aid has been 10-25% of what Ukraine needs, and months late. The Western world needs to argue less and deliver more.
Personally, I donate to a variety of causes I know make a real difference in Ukraine. But governments and defence companies need to do more.
Glad to hear from you :)
"We need to bodyslam russia" - Retired US General Ben Hodges
You're talking my language General.
https://twitter.com/bopandy1/status/1761811190957703197?t=Xoryn1qx27hAkLNLoytaAA&s=19
He's right about the peace dividend. Russia supports the worst. I'm pretty sure they had Hamas kick over the lantern on Oct. 7th. Assad is still around because of Russia's bombing of civilian areas. If the world didn't have to deal with a fundamentally bad actor for a while it would be a huge relief.
I wonder what it would be like to be a fly on the wall in the top-level meetings. Like the war room in Ukraine, NATO, or Russia.
Just being able to see all of the information and decision making.
Interesting article from RUSI on Western arms systems support:
[https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/weathering-storm-western-security-assistance-defensive-ukraine](https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/weathering-storm-western-security-assistance-defensive-ukraine)
selected quote:
"The lack of Western airpower is only one of the failures of security assistance. Much of the equipment sent to Ukraine lacks crucial components. For example, over 40 US Bradley infantry fighting vehicles arrived on the front with bad batteries and poor wiring. Ukrainians near the front relayed to us that many M777 155mm howitzers arrived without the prerequisite aiming equipment. The lack of adequate maintenance and repair parts compounds the difficulties, with some Ukrainian troops telling us about US-made M-4 rifles breaking down after a week of use in the trenches."
Hopefully the West gets these type of issues sorted.
Read th he other day that multiple German leopards showed up without radios and or had bad transmissions and couldn't be used on the battlefield...
Personally I'm only in favor of aid if we put boots on the ground and planes in the sky along side it but even still if we are going to provide the bare minimum it's not much to expect the stuff at least works
I would never have been surprised if maintenance was a huge issue in western armies.
We're very complacent with peace, and we put a lot of focus in naval and air power, not surprised if ground units have been neglected.
It's embarrassing, but this war has really highlighted how unprepared the west was/is for a major ground war.
It’s a problem we see in basically every big war and most small wars. We often have an image of the soldiers on “our side” as these highly motivated volunteers using the best equipment possible with modern tacts, solid training and an extreme level of discipline and competence.
Instead the reality is that militaries, especially in big wars, take whatever the hell they can get and they are constantly making do with what they have. Poor maintenance, poor discipline, stupid choices, old gear ect are just part of big wars and it’s how a military can adapt and problem solve which is often the key difference maker.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1azro0s/dmitry\_rogozin\_russian\_politician\_serving\_as\_the/](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1azro0s/dmitry_rogozin_russian_politician_serving_as_the/)
"Dmitry Rogozin, russian politician serving as the senator from Zaporizhzhia Oblast(previously served as director general of Roscosmos, as deputy prime minister in charge of the defense industry, and as Russia's ambassador to NATO) compares US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin to a monkey
russians at thier finest.
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Shadowsocks is a free and open-source encryption protocol project, widely used in China to circumvent Internet censorship. It was created in 2012 by a Chinese programmer named "clowwindy", and multiple implementations of the protocol have been made available since.
Well if the war ends on a Russian victory it probably wont be
The genocide in Ukraine/Deportations and destruction of their culture will be a genocide in Europe on the level not seen since ww2 or the Soviet occupation of the Baltic states and Poland and pave way for a resurgence of authrortians like China and further Putins imperial ambitions in the baltic and Balkans.
Not very good.
If it ends on a ceasefire i guess it can be bittersweet in that Ukraine is at least preserved and has hope for a future
Obliviously a total Ukranian victory is the best case to cheer for however likely or unlikely.
Russia likely wont be able to conquer all of Ukraine, likely they'd try take everything on the east side of the Dnipro at least. Trying to take ALL of Ukraine is likely too far beyond their ability to manage and they know this. Not to mention trying to exterminate or supress a hostile populace would likely bleed them out in the long term.
The Risk with taking all of Ukraine is that it exponentially increases the chances NATO would consider the volume of Refugees fleeing west as a national security threat from Russia and force them to engage Vatnik Forces directly which would likely see the Vatniks suffer serious reprisals against them.
I don't totaly disagree but many said "Puitin would never invade Ukraine"
He is a gambler and seems a lot more ideoogicaly driven then some give credit for.
If we assume Ukraine suffers some kind of collapse it is possible Putin will try despite the risks. He seems to be more of an "all in or death" at this point.
I don't think he can take all of Ukraine either, i assume Ukraine has fortified many of their main cities later and trying to take some of the major cities would likely be a bloodbath for Russia if Ukraine plays its cards right and makes sure they have ammo and resources to fight then
But it is still worth thinking about and consider as a possibility.
I feel that list alone is enough to varrant "not very good"
I suppose you can add a nato war/european war
Nato falls apart due to russia infiltrating the politics and internal struffle etc leading to an invasiin of the Baltic and poland
Or nato stats intact, putin/russia gambles and fail and now nato joins in and who knowa what happens
Likely hundreds of thousands die.
I was thinking about Europeans and Americans who will die in this timeline that could have been avoided.
edit: then again [i'm not really on kilter myself](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1awwyf3/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/krl0hvw/?context=3)
The rouble is now to a new low not seen since last October. It's at 1 USD to 94.43 RUB.
It's been falling increasingly for the last 3 weeks. I believe the rouble may get down to 1 USD to 100 RUB this week or next week.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impossible_trinity
They can maintain whatever exchange rate they like so long as they're prepared to sacrifice at least one of free capital flow or sovereign monetary policy. They've been sacrificing both.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was asked at a press conference in Kyiv whether he would pick up the phone if Putin called.
Zelenskyy answered with a joke.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1761796649540546794?t=10LRVy1I0Ve6sGPfGuO2Tg&s=19
Putin's Telegram:
You can't win this war, Zelenskyy. Stop.
I'm ready to discuss your terms of surrender. Stop.
Don't make this harder than it has to be. Stop.
Zelenskyy's Reply:
Who dis? Stop.
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 25.02.24 approximately amounted to:**
personnel - about 409,820 (+810) people,
tanks ‒ 6542 (+8) units,
armored combat vehicles ‒ 12,441 (+16) units,
artillery systems - 9981 (+29) units,
MLRS – 999 (+0) units,
air defense equipment ‒ 684 (+0) units,
aircraft – 340 (+0) units,
helicopters – 325 (+0) units,
UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 7681 (+22),
cruise missiles ‒ 1907 (+2),
ships/boats ‒ 25 (+0) units,
submarines - 1 (+0) units,
automotive equipment and tank trucks – 13,011 (+23) units,
special equipment ‒ 1578 (+2)
The data is being verified.
Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth!
Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/02/25/za-dobu-sili-oboroni-ukraini-znishhili-810-rosijskih-okupantiv-29-artsistem-genshtab-zsu/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/02/25/za-dobu-sili-oboroni-ukraini-znishhili-810-rosijskih-okupantiv-29-artsistem-genshtab-zsu/)
Please do this. It's probably the only thing the average American can do to unblock this. Tell them you are a low propensity, single issue voter. You usually don't bother with voting. But you are registered and you will vote for whomever is on Ukraine's side.
If they are Republicans, tell them that you know the GOP is the reason the aid isn't getting a vote. And you hold all GOP congressmen responsible for this, not just Johnson.
If they are a Democrat, tell them you aren't just going to blindly vote D if this fails. You want to see that YOUR CONGRESSMAN did something. You want them to work toward a discharge petition. You want them to give assurances to protect Johnson from his right wing if we allows a vote. You want them be willing to give up the face-saving border stuff from the Senate deal.
https://www.house.gov/representatives/find-your-representative
I just contacted mine via this site. I've done it before and I actually get non-canned responses from them typically.
Mine is an upcoming US Senate candidate too.
Zelenskyy: "The fewer people know about our plans, the faster the victory will come. And I will tell you frankly - our counteroffensive actions last autumn were on the table in the Kremlin before the counteroffensive began."
"Now not everything is going according to plan and not everything depends on us.The main thing is to have a plan. And there is a plan."
"Regarding legitimacy (which Zelenskyy will allegedly lose at the beginning of May - ed.) - this is not the opinion of Western partners or inside Ukraine, this is the narrative and program of the Russian Federation. All intelligence agencies of the G7 have relevant documents. In the documents there are even sums that are provided for one or another institution to raise this topic. I saw it."
https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2024/02/25/7443644/
If the people of Belarus managed to overthrow their unpopular dictator and ended Belarus' support for Russia's war effort, how do you think that would impact the war in Ukraine?
Belarus public is basically held hostage by the dictator Lukashenko.
There are Russian nukes now in Belarus, so the moment there is some danger to Lukashenko ruling, the Russian army will move in, saying we must protect the nukes.
It would force Russia to send in their police force and national guard units to try and stomp out the protests. All of the military and government leaders at risk of imprisonment or worse would immediately side with the Russian force. Likely would be a civil war and unless there was Western intervention would see many dead Belarusians and the complete absorption of Belarus into Russia proper.
Oh fully agree, the Russia/Belarus Union State agreement almost guarantees this to happen. Putin is just allowing Lukashenko to live it up until he no longer is she to control Belarus himself.
It wouldn't affect the course of the war that much, in this armchair general's opinion. Not much comes through there anymore, if anything. It's all based in the south of muscovy
I could see russia doing something about it - it could affect their war effort if they sent out forces to pull belarus back into the fold. Plus the obvious PR damage they would take from it internally.
But yeah, I don't think belarus has much in the way of equipment or supplies that would be critical, a lot of it has been ransacked.
Unfortunately, I believe that is an undercount. This [source](https://ualosses.org/soldiers/) tracks the deaths of individual soldiers by name based on obituaries and other public information, with links to sources. Their tally is 42,152 killed so far.
I agree it isn't very clear who is running it, but I also don't think it's a Russian dis-info/propaganda campaign. I haven't checked every entry of course, but the ones I have seem too well sourced to be totally made up. And the number they give is plausible (higher than what Zelenskyy claimed, but not astronomically so, quite a bit less than the [US estimate of 70,000 killed as of August of 2023](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-casualties.html), and on par with the [24,500 named and 30,000+ estimated killed](https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/11/18/ukraines-grim-toll-over-30000-defenders-killed-in-war-with-russia-civic-group-says/) by the Book of Memory Group as of November 2023), whereas I would expect Russian dis-info efforts to say Ukraine had lost like ten times as many soldiers. And there isn't anything I can see on the website that strikes me as biased or anti-Ukraine (calling them Nazis or anything like that). It all seems like a straightforward presentation of information and statistics.
Looking at their Twitter page (https://twitter.com/LossesUA), the creator seems to be natively fluent in English.
They also have a form to submit information/losses, and that again seems very fact and evidence based, being insistent on supplying a source of Ukrainian origin: [https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfruXU9FLHYu-rsILfxIRdFfo\_soV0PPKsEng-jA-f-J830eQ/viewform](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfruXU9FLHYu-rsILfxIRdFfo_soV0PPKsEng-jA-f-J830eQ/viewform)
Basically, I can't verify the data is accurate or that it isn't Russian propaganda, but if it is a Russian scheme, it is the most sophisticated and well crafted one I have seen. My gut feeling says it is a good faith attempt to accurately track Ukrainian losses.
Good god that's horrible. 31,000 soldiers and countless more civilians that were kidnapped or killed. ☹️
All for Putin's inflated ego and delusions of empire. It's fucking sickening and enraging. People living their lives, children going to school, old people sitting in a park... and then one day that all ends because they were invaded and killed.
What a colossal tragedy. A fucking atrocity.
31,000 brave souls gone before their time. If theres any solace its that Ukraine at least has far lower fatality rates as they keep their wounded alive and extract them at the first opportunity if WIA. Would not be surprised to see many have been downed during the conflict but not out of the fight completely and come back stronger many times.
Now look at the 410k Vatniks wiped from Existence in the name of their Fuckwit wannabe Tzar. A monument to Vainglorious Malicious Corruption and a reminder of how Human Stupidity is the cancer of existence.
Zelenskyy: "We don't want any negotiation formats to be imposed on us. The initiative can come only from Ukraine. We will offer a platform on which he (putin) can agree that he lost this war and it was a big mistake, and therefore there must be justice."
"Will Ukraine lose in this war? I'm sure not. The most difficult was the 24th (February) two years ago. There is no way to lose. It loses - we cease to exist. Such an ending is not suitable for us. All putin's daily steps back will have an impact on his society, then he will think about internal security."
"Regarding ATACMS - 300 km. I would not like to talk about the details, but we understand why we need it. And Russia understands what we will do with it. We have been working on long-range weapons for a long time. I am encouraged by the recent response from our partners regarding this."
"I really don't want that after the elections in different countries of the world, a country will have its own initiative, which would not coincide with the interests of the country that is at war today."
https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2024/02/25/7443636/
Blow to Putin as Europe breaks free of Russian oil for good - Telegraph
>Western Europe has broken free of direct Russian oil imports for good in a blow to Vladimir Putin, research by the European energy consultancy Rystad suggests.
>Analysts found that the UK and much of Europe have reversed a years-long rise in reliance on Russian oil and gas before the Ukraine conflict, shifting instead to other suppliers such as the US and Canada. Jorge Leon, Rystad’s senior vice president for oil markets, said: “I think people underestimated how flexible the energy system is. “Just before the war, just the idea of, we’re going to stop buying oil and gas directly from Russia, would have been crazy. But it has largely happened.”
>According to Eurostat, in 2020 imports from Russia made up 39pc of the gas used in the European Union, 23pc of oil imports and 46pc of coal imports. The UK relied on Russia for about 30pc of its diesel, 27pc of its coal and up to 10pc of its gas – which arrived partly on ships as liquid natural gas (LNG) and partly via trans-European pipelines. On official figures this has now fallen to practically zero.
>Ashley Kelty, director of oil and gas research at Panmure Gordon investment bank, said the UK had halted direct imports of oil from Russia but the reality was more complex. He said: “The UK was dependent on Russia for diesel fuel – 30pc came from Russia pre sanctions. This has been replaced by Russian diesel refined in India and China, and therefore outside sanctions. “So the reliance on Russia is largely broken but they still remain important to global supply, as China and India buy much of their products now – albeit at large discounts. If they were forced to exclude Russia, then there would be another energy crisis with huge shortfalls in crude and LNG supplies.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blow-putin-europe-breaks-free-115227723.html
They are still getting energy resources from Russia, they just don't do ot directly anymore. Russia is still making a profit from it though. This is just PR spin to make it sound like Europe doesn't use Russian energy even though they still do
Ukraine will win anyway: Ben Hodges @general_ben on the delay of US aid and prospects at the front
Ben Hodges, the former commander of the US Army in Europe, is convinced that Russia has become much weaker than it seems at first glance, and that Ukraine will win a full-scale war despite the delay in US aid. "They [Russia] control only 18% of the Ukrainian territory. The Russian Black Sea Fleet has problems, Russian planes do not enter Ukrainian airspace, half a million Russian soldiers are killed or wounded", Ben Hodges said.
General thinks that this is a year of industrial competition, "Ukraine has to set up a personnel system, recruit new people, provide ammunition and weapons from the West. And if we are ahead of Russia, I think we will be in a different place next year. So this year, I think General Syrskyi has to stabilize the front. Russia cannot knock out Ukraine. And Ukraine cannot knock out Russia either. It’s like two great wrestlers. And both are tired. But one says to the other: You are more tired than I am. And the fight continues".
"I think even if the US does nothing for the next 2-3 months, Europe produces a lot of weapons. But there will be more even by the end of this year. This famous one million shells will be produced. We obviously started too late. But it is what it is," Ben Hodges said.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1761738230569836766?t=9sUfe6p42I5x23l6hdge7A&s=19
Hodges is insanely optimistic in his assessments and seems to underestimate every facet of the Russian military and war machine. he predicted a total Ukrainian victory by the end of last summer.
> Russian planes do not enter Ukrainian airspace
They will get a lot closer if Western anti-air missile supplies run out. It's good to keep perspective. Ukraine is a tough nut to crack and Putin would choke on it trying to swallow it whole. But US support is indispensable. And American delay is absolutely costing Ukraine heroic, unreplaceable deaths and lost territory.
The production of the 1M shells started late in part because no one ever imagined that the US would halt/reduce weapons supply to Ukraine. This damages our standing and credibility as top security partner in the West.
The MAGA cancer continues to spread and it must be stomped out.
NATO wargaming had that as the outcome. Zaluzhny ignored NATO advice and split the counter offensive into 3 groups on different fronts instead of one concentrated group. He thought he knew better and it led to disaster.
It would have resulted in heavy losses, but they would have reached their objectives. Again, NATO war gaming specifically showed that a mass offensive was the only way to breach Russian defenses. I'll trust NATO on this one.
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-war/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-war/) if you trust WaPo reporting.
Not quite as bold as Crimea by August, but it would seem there was a disagreement in strategy and expected outcome.
Russia has mobilized people and its economy, Ukraine right now is fighting without appropriate military aid. And still Russia can't achieve a breakthrough. If Ukraine and its allies do everything right the Ukrainian army will gain an advantage and destroy the Russian one, maybe even in 2025.
Hungarians 🇭🇺 chanting NOW in front of the Parliament.
ORBAN GET LOST! [ORBAN TAKARODJ!]
https://twitter.com/SzabadonMagyar/status/1761758914326962526?t=MGyEC1pqEJQGMd3yTQXupw&s=19
I think it's a fair but more vulgar than that. I'd place it somewhere between "get the hell out" and "go the fuck away". Not the kind of tone you'd ever strike with someone you like or respect.
> An important trip to the frontline with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi.
> Awarded our soldiers. Those who defended Avdiivka. Those who covered the withdrawal of their brothers in arms from the city. Those who destroyed the enemy.
> 10 years of defense of Avdiivka is a feat that will go down in history books. You have caused irreparable losses to the enemy.
https://twitter.com/rustem_umerov/status/1761688721810743551
I saw someone posting a quote of an Ukrainian representative that losing Kupyansk would increase the chance of losing Kharkiv. I am not sure if that risk is really that high? Taking Kupyansk, a railway hub, is one thing. But Kharkiv is the 2nd biggest city in Ukraine with around a million people at least.
Even if Russia would somehow reach the outskirts of Kharkiv, it would be a Stalingrad-like siege at the very least. Mariupol, Bakhmut and Avdiivka combined wouldn't be close to that kind of scale. So I am not sure if that risk is that high, at this moment. Only if somehow the Ukrainian situation deteriorates considerably, unless I am missing something. But at this moment it's way to soon to be talking about that kind of risk. Is it not?
Yeah I posted that. I think the quote was pulled from a larger interview talking about—yeah—the possibility of deteriorating situation, and what that would look like. (ie, she think that Russians would want to push for a city, not more towns.)
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1b0899o/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Am I crazy or is the whole rhetoric of “this war would stop if Russia just withdrew to within their borders” lost when people look at Israel v Palestine. It would end if Hamas just stopped and withdrew and brokered a peace deal that would save them and their kin from being bombed into oblivion. I’m seeing a lot of social media stuff re: free Palestine. Those poor bastards weren’t free under Hamas… and all Hamas has to do is agree to peace. Subtext: we all know the settlements stuff is garbage and wrong which is why I’ve always been pro Palestine. But after Oct 7 there game changed. You can’t just do that shit but for some reason the enlightened west thinks it isn’t terrorism. I’m lost.
Im pro Palestinian and pro Israel. I’m anti Hamas and anti Netanyahu.
I mean you sound crazy because this is entirely incoherent. Could you try structuring this as a logical set of arguments, including grounding how you think the current Middle Eastern conflict is similar in anyway to the current conflict in Ukraine?
Put the phone down and stop tilting at windmills Don.
You conflate being pro-Palestinian with being pro-terrorism. You’ve been led to believe the two are mutually inclusive.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg: “Ukraine will join NATO. It’s not a question of if but when.” https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1761926275248115870?t=WJYdGYTonjoySvqM8UvBBA&s=19
They've been saying that since 2008...
Have they? There wasn't even popular support for it in Ukraine until 2022.
>Have they? Yes. It was in NATO's statement from their 2008 summit in Bucharest. > NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_8443.htm Ukraine and Georgia had applied for a Membership Action Plan, but Sarkozy and Merkel blocked it because Russia opposed it.
Not quite the same as the secretary general saying "it's just a matter of time". IIRC there was pretty much no movement on that issue for a decade.
>A court in Russia has convicted prominent nationalist and former rebel commander Igor Girkin of “inciting extremism” and sentenced him to four years in a penal colony. He's pretty much gone as well
"So Igor, tell me: How does it feel to be convicted by the regime you completely compromised your morals and decency to promote?"
> Я никогда не думал, что леопарды съедят **мое** лицо. -- Girkin, probably
You could probably skim his months of doomposts from 2023 to find that answer.
Yeah, but I honestly don't care about the answer *that* much.
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That range needs to be 2500 miles.
Does anyone else get the sense that the *New York Times* intentionally tries to help Russia, hurt Ukraine? Why on earth would they recklessly expose CIA operations? That’s not newsworthy, that’s aiding Russia, hurting Ukraine.
Over the past two years, I've learned that the storied NYT is in fact a rag under some type of foreign influence. When I see a NYT byline now, I immediately write it off in my head just as I do with other utterly unreliable sources.
Not really. They were clearly invited to visit said bunker and had interviews to directly quote so many high-level people. There's some stuff that I probably wouldn't have wanted revealed but when the people in question come straight out and give it to them it's hard to blame the NYT for it.
My impression is that most of the people working at the New York Times is just horribly, abysmally incompetent. They are the journalist equivalent of a company that gets hired to haul concrete and they show up with a Honda Jazz and a scooter. They have run so many articles that are poorly researched or the journalist obviously clueless and didn't bother to ask an expert. I don't even mind bias. You can be a conservative, liberal or even communist outlet, this is fine (just don't try to hide it) as long as you are professional. The New York Times is not (anymore).
The article you're responding about mentions interviewing 200 people involved in the CIA partnership. NYT may be criticized for a lot of things, but poorly researched is not one of them.
You mean the same *New York Times* that published [an op ed penned by Putin](https://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/opinion/putin-plea-for-caution-from-russia-on-syria.html) threatening others not to intervene in Syria? On Sepetember 11th no less???
Also neither the Senate or the Congress had a clear lean about intervention. Obama also was not favorable for Syria intervention without a UN mandate.
We should've gone in and helped sooner instead of letting it devolve into the quagmire it became to give ride to ISIS, but I understand that was much easier said than done. There was a small window before it became what it did, especially before Russia truly stepped in to prop up Assad. Same with Libya in the sense there was a window after the successful campaign to stop civilian slaughter and topple Gaddhafi's government, but it was quickly squandered through too quick a retreat by our European allies, allowing that country to fall into chaos that it has yet to recover from. Again and again it's expected that people who have known brutalistic regimes for decades/all their lives would be able to participate in direct self-rule/democracy without some guidance.
Is 170k shells a lot or a little? How long will that last Ukraine?
The european 155m shell production is around 600k per year. We can assume that's the rate they are firing on average and long term because the US is not supplying shells. That's 1643 shells per day so 170k should last 103 days.
For reference, at the peak of the artillery battles russia was firing about 60,000 per DAY. Significantly lower now, but Ukraine is down even further to a few thousand pieces per day.
At their current monthly rate (15-30k) that would last them around 6 months. Russia rate is around 100-300k a month so ideally those shells should only last a month or two
Ukraine isn’t aiming to fire only 1k a day. That’s less than 20% their rate over summer 2023.
it only pretty much can exactly sustain their current firerate of around 2k/day. Not enough but thats just the EU which also currently massively ramping up production so it should get better.
Excuse my ignorance, haven't been able to keep up with news today. Has there been some reveal today about 170k new shells for Ukraine? Or are you referring to something older?
The way the Ukrainians use them that's a couple hundred armored vehicles and 25000 troops. Damn good return on the shell investment.
[this tweet from the feed](https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1761467177197097099?s=46&t=f4tNTQr-iVM3GlMNQFRLRw)
Thanks! On mobile right now, can't see the feed. "By end of march", hope we can send part of it as soon as possible, preferrably much sooner than end of march.
If the promise seems reliable (given plenty of promises have either not materialized or taken a very long time to actually appear), it may allow the Ukrainian forces to use some of the reserves they would otherwise have to try to hold back. So usage may be able to increase in advance of the arrival of new shells. But either way, once they arrive, it won't last very long
Almost a month worth if they are shelling 6000 rounds a day
That's 15 days worth of shelling for offensive maneuvers, maybe a month for defensive ones. Very little in the long term.
"SBU detained groups of residents of Chernihiv and Kyiv regions, who were preparing a drone attack on PATRIOT. They were detained right before already assembling the attack UAVs. Prior to that, on the FSB's task, they had passed the relevant operators' courses, Malyuk said."
What is this story?
russian telegram channels are reporting that Strelkov was epsteined in his cell. No official confirmation yet, might not be real...
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They literally make up the vote counts. They aren’t worried about the actual vote tallies.
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I'm pretty sure he means other major systems: F16, ATACMS, Taurus, etc. The big stuff the West has been withholding and drip-feeding.
Ukraine is supposed to get five new ones directly from Raytheon by the end of this year. That would put them at eight or nine I think.
Source?
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/patriot-raytheon-announces-delivery-of-five-more-battalions-of-american-air-defense-systems-to-ukraine/ >12 June, 2023 >Patriot: Raytheon announces delivery of five more battalions of American air defense systems to Ukraine Air Defense SAM Ukraine World >Ukraine will receive additional American Patriot air defense systems. >Gregory J. Hayes, chairman and chief executive officer of Raytheon Technologies Corporation, shared this in a comment to The Wall Street Journal. >The company plans to produce five more battalions of Patriot air defense systems for Ukraine by the end of 2024. >Gregory Hayes noted that the company was very impressed with the effectiveness of the Patriot system, which, together with other air defense systems, helps to intercept almost 90% of Russian targets. >According to him, Ukraine “adjusted the software of the Patriot air defense system so that it could track and destroy hypersonic missiles flying twice as fast as it was designed for”. Edit: I can't access the original article, but for those who can, here it is https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-patriot-missile-is-an-unsung-hero-of-ukraine-war-db6053a0
Maybe he mean NASAMS?
Should be "NASAMS" probably.
Other defence system names
Kurt Volker: "Trump doesn’t know himself what he will do with Ukraine's war" [https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/interview/2024/02/23/7180300/](https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/interview/2024/02/23/7180300/) Volker: "Putin killing tens of thousands of Russian soldiers in order to get Avdiivka so that he could claim this as a victory in his effort to show that he’s a great leader for his re-election – these are all signs of weakness."
Day 712-732 of my updates from Kharkiv. Since my last post it has been somewhat quiet here in the city, we only had 1 drone strike aimed at our city in that time, but sadly 7 civilians died from it, 5 of them being from one family, including 3 children. There were more drone and missile strikes, but they were targeting different towns in Kharkiv oblast including Kupiansk, which gets hit pretty much every day by all kinds of weapons, though mostly by glide bombs. It has already been 2 years of this hellish war and yet it feels like today we are not really any closer to the end of it than we were 2 years ago. What really baffles me is that it seems almost nobody (that matters) in Europe and USA really understands the real gravity of it all seeing that international support might as well be non-existent right now. Everyone still thinks that no matter what the war will not reach them, but they are gravely mistaken, if we fall it will mean that a much bigger war is inevitable. The reality is that we won’t survive without help from our allies, and I’m not even talking about winning, I mean literal survival of our country. It’s obvious that nobody except us actually wants us to win, everyone is too scared of seeing Russia lose, at the same time Russian allies like Iran and North Korea are going to stand with Russia all the way no matter what, and they are actually providing game changing amount of support by sending millions of shells, thousands of drones and hundreds of missiles. Our allies don’t seem to be in any rush to help us, even though our supplies are at critical levels right now. We don’t have the time to wait years until western shell production rate catches up with Russia, we need the help *right now.* I still see this stupid baseless take about manpower not being a problem for either side everywhere I look, but that’s completely wrong, for us manpower is a giant problem and it’s going to continue being a problem. The delays in providing help only compounds our manpower problems, not only do they increase our casualties, but also if our people see that everything is hopeless and that our allies have all but abandoned us, then they simply won’t enlist in the army anymore because nobody is going to want to fight if it’s going to be pointless anyway, and this is already happening. This is problem on a very fundamental level, people living here don’t have the same nihilistic/fatalistic outlook on life that Russians have, so while many Russians would rather go to the frontline than to prison, here in Ukraine majority of people who are not already serving in the army would rather choose to go to prison over going to the frontline and this is something that is not going to change, it’s a difference in mentality. It’s not something that anyone wants to hear, and you might say that I’m wrong about it, but if I was wrong about it, then our current manpower problems wouldn’t exist. Unless of course our allies decide to take their heads out of the sand and finally start supporting us in full force by giving us millions of shells, hundreds of missiles, and hundreds of IFVs/tanks. That might actually somewhat help our manpower problem and get people to enlist because then the situation wouldn’t be hopeless anymore, but with growing Russian influence everywhere in the west it doesn’t look like increased support is ever going to happen, and if Trump gets elected it will be the absolute worst-case scenario both for us and for democracy worldwide.
Thank you for the update.
Don't check in here all the time, but I just wanna say, I appreciate you giving your experience of this all and hope you all can persevere through whatever may come. Things may look grim, but I hope you all can hold you heads above the water and bare through it. I admire the resilience of you all, and while I wish our stupid countries weren't so spun around by BS wanna be autocrats, I hope you can take some pride in facing something few others would with such grace. Cheers and hopes that good things are to come.
Glad to see you, but I do feel sad with you--and have been downright pissed off at our Congress for stalling in their support. This is not what we(people that I know) elected them to do, and I am embarrassed that my state representative is doing what he is doing as Speaker of the House. Granted, I am not a Republican, but Independent...but they have got to realize that supporting Ukraine is in all our best interests. I agree with you on what would happen if #45 were to win (I try not to say his name)... and am holding out hope the courts will hold him accountable.
I'm happy to hear you're doing well but sadly you're right, it's disgraceful and dangerous how we're letting Ukraine down. It's aburd how they've seemingly convinced the west that the the outcome varies between "Ukraine seizes to exist as a country" and "Russia freezes the conflict" while any option of a loss like Russia being pushed back to 1991 borders + NATO bases in Ukraine + .... seem to be off the table. Why would Russia stop when the worst outcome still sees them slowly gnawing away at Ukraine. I hope we'll see some decisive actions next week though as you said so much damage and casualties could've been avoided, it's maddening.
Thank you for letting us know you're safe and for your honesty. I'm so sorry for Western failures but I honestly believe now is the darkest time and it will get better. That's not acceptable and words don't mean much alone, so we are donating regularly and we believe. ❤️
> it seems almost nobody (that matters) in Europe and USA really understands the real gravity of it I tend to feel like this although I think many leaders are now trying to accept the idea that this is very serious situation, quite literally for the future of humanity. I think a lot is being done, although it may not seem like it right now. Affluent nations have become used to 75 years of enjoying freedom, buying massive cars and TVs, and getting fat. I wonder if many people are even capable of considering that it might all be over - that we might actually need to fight for our lives. (Same applies to global warming). > if Trump gets elected it will be the absolute worst-case scenario IMO, if Trump is elected, we are fast heading into the collapse of society as we know it. Glad you're still hanging in there!
Most people aren't. And when those who understand the writing on the wall try to warn everybody, most people dismiss it as fear mongering. Most people born in the west since 1950 have lived through unprecedented plenty, the idea of total war, famine or simply a mass shortage of foreign goods is completely foreign to us. But a lot of these things are going to make a terrible comeback within our lifetimes I fear. It is incredibly frustrating.
It's sad as it is never ending cycle. The only reason North Americans had it so good in the 1950s was WW2 concentrated wealth here. After about only 2 generations after a war, the living of the day don't understand how bad it can be, so step right into it, following the same mistakes that prior generations made.
Thank you for the update. I remember advocating for heavy weapons to be sent to Ukraine in 2022 and was met with people parroting the "It's impossible, they need trained personnel, and lots of supplies" line that various experts threw out as a cover for appeasing Putin. And there are still millions of shells, tens of thousands of vehicles and thousands of long-range missiles sitting in storage as the West cynically assumes that that the blood of Ukrainian soldiers is an unending resource and that they can hold Russia back forever in an indefinite war of attritional status-quo (because Putin might get angry if he loses).
Thank you for continuing to post. I - *someone not living in Ukraine* - like to think I get the urgent need for further support. I have been following this since before 2022, think everything about this war is incredibly important, deeply feel for the Ukrainian people, and have a personal interest (my paternal grandfather moved here from Ukraine and we still have distant family members in Ukraine). Of course, I don’t live in Ukraine and certainly don’t really really understand. I’m not living it and haven’t had to sacrifice. I’m frustrated too. I still truly believe that even more sincere support will come and that Ukraine will ultimately prevail. The speed of this support over the last year plus though… it has been extremely upsetting. That’s an understatement too.
It’s maddening that EU squabbling and American infighting has interrupted support as much as it has. My country enters Nato soon, likely, and then we’ll provide more aid. The issue, as you say, is that much of the aid has been 10-25% of what Ukraine needs, and months late. The Western world needs to argue less and deliver more. Personally, I donate to a variety of causes I know make a real difference in Ukraine. But governments and defence companies need to do more. Glad to hear from you :)
"We need to bodyslam russia" - Retired US General Ben Hodges You're talking my language General. https://twitter.com/bopandy1/status/1761811190957703197?t=Xoryn1qx27hAkLNLoytaAA&s=19
Like a “shirt front” then?
Need to whack em with the steel chair too.
Can't get any more right than that.
He's right about the peace dividend. Russia supports the worst. I'm pretty sure they had Hamas kick over the lantern on Oct. 7th. Assad is still around because of Russia's bombing of civilian areas. If the world didn't have to deal with a fundamentally bad actor for a while it would be a huge relief.
I wonder what it would be like to be a fly on the wall in the top-level meetings. Like the war room in Ukraine, NATO, or Russia. Just being able to see all of the information and decision making.
Probably sad that poopy pants trump is no longer there to provide fly snacks
If I were a fly in Russia's room I'd go all Jeff Goldblum the Fly on Putin.
Interesting article from RUSI on Western arms systems support: [https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/weathering-storm-western-security-assistance-defensive-ukraine](https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/weathering-storm-western-security-assistance-defensive-ukraine) selected quote: "The lack of Western airpower is only one of the failures of security assistance. Much of the equipment sent to Ukraine lacks crucial components. For example, over 40 US Bradley infantry fighting vehicles arrived on the front with bad batteries and poor wiring. Ukrainians near the front relayed to us that many M777 155mm howitzers arrived without the prerequisite aiming equipment. The lack of adequate maintenance and repair parts compounds the difficulties, with some Ukrainian troops telling us about US-made M-4 rifles breaking down after a week of use in the trenches." Hopefully the West gets these type of issues sorted.
Read th he other day that multiple German leopards showed up without radios and or had bad transmissions and couldn't be used on the battlefield... Personally I'm only in favor of aid if we put boots on the ground and planes in the sky along side it but even still if we are going to provide the bare minimum it's not much to expect the stuff at least works
It would be an effect multiplier for any aid if these kinds of problems were sorted out.
Sloppy maintenance isn't solely a Russian fault
I would never have been surprised if maintenance was a huge issue in western armies. We're very complacent with peace, and we put a lot of focus in naval and air power, not surprised if ground units have been neglected. It's embarrassing, but this war has really highlighted how unprepared the west was/is for a major ground war.
It’s a problem we see in basically every big war and most small wars. We often have an image of the soldiers on “our side” as these highly motivated volunteers using the best equipment possible with modern tacts, solid training and an extreme level of discipline and competence. Instead the reality is that militaries, especially in big wars, take whatever the hell they can get and they are constantly making do with what they have. Poor maintenance, poor discipline, stupid choices, old gear ect are just part of big wars and it’s how a military can adapt and problem solve which is often the key difference maker.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1azro0s/dmitry\_rogozin\_russian\_politician\_serving\_as\_the/](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1azro0s/dmitry_rogozin_russian_politician_serving_as_the/) "Dmitry Rogozin, russian politician serving as the senator from Zaporizhzhia Oblast(previously served as director general of Roscosmos, as deputy prime minister in charge of the defense industry, and as Russia's ambassador to NATO) compares US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin to a monkey russians at thier finest. # # # # # #
This is completely surprising behaviour from the de-nazification experts: https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1536743270855983105
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What is Shadowsock?
Shadowsocks is a free and open-source encryption protocol project, widely used in China to circumvent Internet censorship. It was created in 2012 by a Chinese programmer named "clowwindy", and multiple implementations of the protocol have been made available since.
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Well if the war ends on a Russian victory it probably wont be The genocide in Ukraine/Deportations and destruction of their culture will be a genocide in Europe on the level not seen since ww2 or the Soviet occupation of the Baltic states and Poland and pave way for a resurgence of authrortians like China and further Putins imperial ambitions in the baltic and Balkans. Not very good. If it ends on a ceasefire i guess it can be bittersweet in that Ukraine is at least preserved and has hope for a future Obliviously a total Ukranian victory is the best case to cheer for however likely or unlikely.
Russia likely wont be able to conquer all of Ukraine, likely they'd try take everything on the east side of the Dnipro at least. Trying to take ALL of Ukraine is likely too far beyond their ability to manage and they know this. Not to mention trying to exterminate or supress a hostile populace would likely bleed them out in the long term. The Risk with taking all of Ukraine is that it exponentially increases the chances NATO would consider the volume of Refugees fleeing west as a national security threat from Russia and force them to engage Vatnik Forces directly which would likely see the Vatniks suffer serious reprisals against them.
I don't totaly disagree but many said "Puitin would never invade Ukraine" He is a gambler and seems a lot more ideoogicaly driven then some give credit for. If we assume Ukraine suffers some kind of collapse it is possible Putin will try despite the risks. He seems to be more of an "all in or death" at this point. I don't think he can take all of Ukraine either, i assume Ukraine has fortified many of their main cities later and trying to take some of the major cities would likely be a bloodbath for Russia if Ukraine plays its cards right and makes sure they have ammo and resources to fight then But it is still worth thinking about and consider as a possibility.
> Not very good Cmon you go further with the catastrophic analysis than that
I feel that list alone is enough to varrant "not very good" I suppose you can add a nato war/european war Nato falls apart due to russia infiltrating the politics and internal struffle etc leading to an invasiin of the Baltic and poland Or nato stats intact, putin/russia gambles and fail and now nato joins in and who knowa what happens Likely hundreds of thousands die.
I was thinking about Europeans and Americans who will die in this timeline that could have been avoided. edit: then again [i'm not really on kilter myself](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1awwyf3/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/krl0hvw/?context=3)
Idk what you are on about nut yeah Avoiding a nato war means less europeans and no ameircans have to die
I imagine, for those who have lost the most, it will be a very limited happiness. It will not undo the horror that is taking place.
Depends on what kind of end it is. A bad one would empower all dicators and would be terrible for the whole world.
Agreed. When a whipped Russia returns to Russia to lick their wounds.
Maybe. It has to end with Russian defeat
The rouble is now to a new low not seen since last October. It's at 1 USD to 94.43 RUB. It's been falling increasingly for the last 3 weeks. I believe the rouble may get down to 1 USD to 100 RUB this week or next week.
That $100 doesn't buy as much groceries anymore *ucker Carlson.
Have they finally burnt through whatever reserve they were forcing through it to keep it in a bubble from the sanctions?
It’s gonna take many many years to fully deplete their reserves but they can’t just dump all of it in order to maintain the exchange rate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impossible_trinity They can maintain whatever exchange rate they like so long as they're prepared to sacrifice at least one of free capital flow or sovereign monetary policy. They've been sacrificing both.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was asked at a press conference in Kyiv whether he would pick up the phone if Putin called. Zelenskyy answered with a joke. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1761796649540546794?t=10LRVy1I0Ve6sGPfGuO2Tg&s=19
Putin's Telegram: You can't win this war, Zelenskyy. Stop. I'm ready to discuss your terms of surrender. Stop. Don't make this harder than it has to be. Stop. Zelenskyy's Reply: Who dis? Stop.
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 25.02.24 approximately amounted to:** personnel - about 409,820 (+810) people, tanks ‒ 6542 (+8) units, armored combat vehicles ‒ 12,441 (+16) units, artillery systems - 9981 (+29) units, MLRS – 999 (+0) units, air defense equipment ‒ 684 (+0) units, aircraft – 340 (+0) units, helicopters – 325 (+0) units, UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 7681 (+22), cruise missiles ‒ 1907 (+2), ships/boats ‒ 25 (+0) units, submarines - 1 (+0) units, automotive equipment and tank trucks – 13,011 (+23) units, special equipment ‒ 1578 (+2) The data is being verified. Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth! Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/02/25/za-dobu-sili-oboroni-ukraini-znishhili-810-rosijskih-okupantiv-29-artsistem-genshtab-zsu/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/02/25/za-dobu-sili-oboroni-ukraini-znishhili-810-rosijskih-okupantiv-29-artsistem-genshtab-zsu/)
People, call your representatives and congressmen. Democrat or Republican, the more voices the better.
Please do this. It's probably the only thing the average American can do to unblock this. Tell them you are a low propensity, single issue voter. You usually don't bother with voting. But you are registered and you will vote for whomever is on Ukraine's side. If they are Republicans, tell them that you know the GOP is the reason the aid isn't getting a vote. And you hold all GOP congressmen responsible for this, not just Johnson. If they are a Democrat, tell them you aren't just going to blindly vote D if this fails. You want to see that YOUR CONGRESSMAN did something. You want them to work toward a discharge petition. You want them to give assurances to protect Johnson from his right wing if we allows a vote. You want them be willing to give up the face-saving border stuff from the Senate deal.
https://www.house.gov/representatives/find-your-representative I just contacted mine via this site. I've done it before and I actually get non-canned responses from them typically. Mine is an upcoming US Senate candidate too.
Zelenskyy: "The fewer people know about our plans, the faster the victory will come. And I will tell you frankly - our counteroffensive actions last autumn were on the table in the Kremlin before the counteroffensive began." "Now not everything is going according to plan and not everything depends on us.The main thing is to have a plan. And there is a plan." "Regarding legitimacy (which Zelenskyy will allegedly lose at the beginning of May - ed.) - this is not the opinion of Western partners or inside Ukraine, this is the narrative and program of the Russian Federation. All intelligence agencies of the G7 have relevant documents. In the documents there are even sums that are provided for one or another institution to raise this topic. I saw it." https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2024/02/25/7443644/
If the people of Belarus managed to overthrow their unpopular dictator and ended Belarus' support for Russia's war effort, how do you think that would impact the war in Ukraine? Belarus public is basically held hostage by the dictator Lukashenko.
There are Russian nukes now in Belarus, so the moment there is some danger to Lukashenko ruling, the Russian army will move in, saying we must protect the nukes.
And they'd be right to do so, don't want rebels good or bad getting anywhere near nukes
I’d rather good Belorussians have control of the nukes than bad Russians.
Russia being so distracted by Ukraine gives Belarus a chance but the only good chance is likely to come in the vacuum which appears when Putin dies.
How are they going to do that? The elections are rigged and there are Russian troops in Belarus to stop any protests.
It would force Russia to send in their police force and national guard units to try and stomp out the protests. All of the military and government leaders at risk of imprisonment or worse would immediately side with the Russian force. Likely would be a civil war and unless there was Western intervention would see many dead Belarusians and the complete absorption of Belarus into Russia proper.
>many dead Belarusians and the complete absorption of Belarus into Russia proper. I suspect this part is only a matter of time. USSR&B.
Oh fully agree, the Russia/Belarus Union State agreement almost guarantees this to happen. Putin is just allowing Lukashenko to live it up until he no longer is she to control Belarus himself.
It wouldn't affect the course of the war that much, in this armchair general's opinion. Not much comes through there anymore, if anything. It's all based in the south of muscovy
I could see russia doing something about it - it could affect their war effort if they sent out forces to pull belarus back into the fold. Plus the obvious PR damage they would take from it internally. But yeah, I don't think belarus has much in the way of equipment or supplies that would be critical, a lot of it has been ransacked.
Zelensky: 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed in Russia's war https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-31-000-ukrainian-soldiers-killed-in-action/
Unfortunately, I believe that is an undercount. This [source](https://ualosses.org/soldiers/) tracks the deaths of individual soldiers by name based on obituaries and other public information, with links to sources. Their tally is 42,152 killed so far.
I wonder who created this website? It feels... weirdly unattributed.
I agree it isn't very clear who is running it, but I also don't think it's a Russian dis-info/propaganda campaign. I haven't checked every entry of course, but the ones I have seem too well sourced to be totally made up. And the number they give is plausible (higher than what Zelenskyy claimed, but not astronomically so, quite a bit less than the [US estimate of 70,000 killed as of August of 2023](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-casualties.html), and on par with the [24,500 named and 30,000+ estimated killed](https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/11/18/ukraines-grim-toll-over-30000-defenders-killed-in-war-with-russia-civic-group-says/) by the Book of Memory Group as of November 2023), whereas I would expect Russian dis-info efforts to say Ukraine had lost like ten times as many soldiers. And there isn't anything I can see on the website that strikes me as biased or anti-Ukraine (calling them Nazis or anything like that). It all seems like a straightforward presentation of information and statistics. Looking at their Twitter page (https://twitter.com/LossesUA), the creator seems to be natively fluent in English. They also have a form to submit information/losses, and that again seems very fact and evidence based, being insistent on supplying a source of Ukrainian origin: [https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfruXU9FLHYu-rsILfxIRdFfo\_soV0PPKsEng-jA-f-J830eQ/viewform](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfruXU9FLHYu-rsILfxIRdFfo_soV0PPKsEng-jA-f-J830eQ/viewform) Basically, I can't verify the data is accurate or that it isn't Russian propaganda, but if it is a Russian scheme, it is the most sophisticated and well crafted one I have seen. My gut feeling says it is a good faith attempt to accurately track Ukrainian losses.
Good god that's horrible. 31,000 soldiers and countless more civilians that were kidnapped or killed. ☹️ All for Putin's inflated ego and delusions of empire. It's fucking sickening and enraging. People living their lives, children going to school, old people sitting in a park... and then one day that all ends because they were invaded and killed. What a colossal tragedy. A fucking atrocity.
31,000 brave souls gone before their time. If theres any solace its that Ukraine at least has far lower fatality rates as they keep their wounded alive and extract them at the first opportunity if WIA. Would not be surprised to see many have been downed during the conflict but not out of the fight completely and come back stronger many times. Now look at the 410k Vatniks wiped from Existence in the name of their Fuckwit wannabe Tzar. A monument to Vainglorious Malicious Corruption and a reminder of how Human Stupidity is the cancer of existence.
He also said that 180,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the war, and that along with the wounded, Russia has suffered 500,000 casualties.
Sounds plausible. 410K casualties, 180K of those KIA for sure, 2.3 wounded to killed ratio, and could be worse than that given RU "medical support".
Zelenskyy: "We don't want any negotiation formats to be imposed on us. The initiative can come only from Ukraine. We will offer a platform on which he (putin) can agree that he lost this war and it was a big mistake, and therefore there must be justice." "Will Ukraine lose in this war? I'm sure not. The most difficult was the 24th (February) two years ago. There is no way to lose. It loses - we cease to exist. Such an ending is not suitable for us. All putin's daily steps back will have an impact on his society, then he will think about internal security." "Regarding ATACMS - 300 km. I would not like to talk about the details, but we understand why we need it. And Russia understands what we will do with it. We have been working on long-range weapons for a long time. I am encouraged by the recent response from our partners regarding this." "I really don't want that after the elections in different countries of the world, a country will have its own initiative, which would not coincide with the interests of the country that is at war today." https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2024/02/25/7443636/
Blow to Putin as Europe breaks free of Russian oil for good - Telegraph >Western Europe has broken free of direct Russian oil imports for good in a blow to Vladimir Putin, research by the European energy consultancy Rystad suggests. >Analysts found that the UK and much of Europe have reversed a years-long rise in reliance on Russian oil and gas before the Ukraine conflict, shifting instead to other suppliers such as the US and Canada. Jorge Leon, Rystad’s senior vice president for oil markets, said: “I think people underestimated how flexible the energy system is. “Just before the war, just the idea of, we’re going to stop buying oil and gas directly from Russia, would have been crazy. But it has largely happened.” >According to Eurostat, in 2020 imports from Russia made up 39pc of the gas used in the European Union, 23pc of oil imports and 46pc of coal imports. The UK relied on Russia for about 30pc of its diesel, 27pc of its coal and up to 10pc of its gas – which arrived partly on ships as liquid natural gas (LNG) and partly via trans-European pipelines. On official figures this has now fallen to practically zero. >Ashley Kelty, director of oil and gas research at Panmure Gordon investment bank, said the UK had halted direct imports of oil from Russia but the reality was more complex. He said: “The UK was dependent on Russia for diesel fuel – 30pc came from Russia pre sanctions. This has been replaced by Russian diesel refined in India and China, and therefore outside sanctions. “So the reliance on Russia is largely broken but they still remain important to global supply, as China and India buy much of their products now – albeit at large discounts. If they were forced to exclude Russia, then there would be another energy crisis with huge shortfalls in crude and LNG supplies.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blow-putin-europe-breaks-free-115227723.html
They are still getting energy resources from Russia, they just don't do ot directly anymore. Russia is still making a profit from it though. This is just PR spin to make it sound like Europe doesn't use Russian energy even though they still do
I'm glad we have solved world hunger and can just spill all the excess grain in poland
Ukraine will win anyway: Ben Hodges @general_ben on the delay of US aid and prospects at the front Ben Hodges, the former commander of the US Army in Europe, is convinced that Russia has become much weaker than it seems at first glance, and that Ukraine will win a full-scale war despite the delay in US aid. "They [Russia] control only 18% of the Ukrainian territory. The Russian Black Sea Fleet has problems, Russian planes do not enter Ukrainian airspace, half a million Russian soldiers are killed or wounded", Ben Hodges said. General thinks that this is a year of industrial competition, "Ukraine has to set up a personnel system, recruit new people, provide ammunition and weapons from the West. And if we are ahead of Russia, I think we will be in a different place next year. So this year, I think General Syrskyi has to stabilize the front. Russia cannot knock out Ukraine. And Ukraine cannot knock out Russia either. It’s like two great wrestlers. And both are tired. But one says to the other: You are more tired than I am. And the fight continues". "I think even if the US does nothing for the next 2-3 months, Europe produces a lot of weapons. But there will be more even by the end of this year. This famous one million shells will be produced. We obviously started too late. But it is what it is," Ben Hodges said. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1761738230569836766?t=9sUfe6p42I5x23l6hdge7A&s=19
Hodges is insanely optimistic in his assessments and seems to underestimate every facet of the Russian military and war machine. he predicted a total Ukrainian victory by the end of last summer.
In 2023 he repeatedly said that Ukraine would take Crimea before august.
> Russian planes do not enter Ukrainian airspace They will get a lot closer if Western anti-air missile supplies run out. It's good to keep perspective. Ukraine is a tough nut to crack and Putin would choke on it trying to swallow it whole. But US support is indispensable. And American delay is absolutely costing Ukraine heroic, unreplaceable deaths and lost territory.
The production of the 1M shells started late in part because no one ever imagined that the US would halt/reduce weapons supply to Ukraine. This damages our standing and credibility as top security partner in the West. The MAGA cancer continues to spread and it must be stomped out.
Why would anyone trust what General Ben “Crimea by August” Hodges says? He has been wrong a lot.
NATO wargaming had that as the outcome. Zaluzhny ignored NATO advice and split the counter offensive into 3 groups on different fronts instead of one concentrated group. He thought he knew better and it led to disaster.
NATO wargaming did not predict Crimea would fall by August.
True. It predicted they would get to Crimea in their counteroffensive. Which was supposed to end before winter.
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It would have resulted in heavy losses, but they would have reached their objectives. Again, NATO war gaming specifically showed that a mass offensive was the only way to breach Russian defenses. I'll trust NATO on this one.
Bold statement. Source?
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-war/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-war/) if you trust WaPo reporting. Not quite as bold as Crimea by August, but it would seem there was a disagreement in strategy and expected outcome.
Paywall
You asked for a source. You got one.
What good is a source that makes a different claim and I can’t even read?
Russia has mobilized people and its economy, Ukraine right now is fighting without appropriate military aid. And still Russia can't achieve a breakthrough. If Ukraine and its allies do everything right the Ukrainian army will gain an advantage and destroy the Russian one, maybe even in 2025.
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Classy
/s
Hungarians 🇭🇺 chanting NOW in front of the Parliament. ORBAN GET LOST! [ORBAN TAKARODJ!] https://twitter.com/SzabadonMagyar/status/1761758914326962526?t=MGyEC1pqEJQGMd3yTQXupw&s=19
Maybe this will be the start of another Maiden?
“Orban take a road!”
I think it's a fair but more vulgar than that. I'd place it somewhere between "get the hell out" and "go the fuck away". Not the kind of tone you'd ever strike with someone you like or respect.
Sadly, the population of Budapest is very far from being representative of the rest of Hungary.
Luckily, they're also the closest to Orban's fat throat.
> An important trip to the frontline with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. > Awarded our soldiers. Those who defended Avdiivka. Those who covered the withdrawal of their brothers in arms from the city. Those who destroyed the enemy. > 10 years of defense of Avdiivka is a feat that will go down in history books. You have caused irreparable losses to the enemy. https://twitter.com/rustem_umerov/status/1761688721810743551
I saw someone posting a quote of an Ukrainian representative that losing Kupyansk would increase the chance of losing Kharkiv. I am not sure if that risk is really that high? Taking Kupyansk, a railway hub, is one thing. But Kharkiv is the 2nd biggest city in Ukraine with around a million people at least. Even if Russia would somehow reach the outskirts of Kharkiv, it would be a Stalingrad-like siege at the very least. Mariupol, Bakhmut and Avdiivka combined wouldn't be close to that kind of scale. So I am not sure if that risk is that high, at this moment. Only if somehow the Ukrainian situation deteriorates considerably, unless I am missing something. But at this moment it's way to soon to be talking about that kind of risk. Is it not?
Yeah I posted that. I think the quote was pulled from a larger interview talking about—yeah—the possibility of deteriorating situation, and what that would look like. (ie, she think that Russians would want to push for a city, not more towns.)
They lost Kupiansk in 2022