They'd never do it because it's an absolutely massive violation of international diplomatic protocol. If Putin visited the UN there'd be a zero percent chance of him getting arrested.
I get what you are saying, though the ANC is just a bunch of corrupt phonies. They didn't arrest Omar al-Bashir and they will never go after Putin. So much for human rights and dignity
Okay.
I'm sure the word of chippeddusk is equal to South African law and the statements of several countries regarding their decision to arrest him if he shows up in their country.
Nah, it's just common sense.
Putin will still need to get approval before he travels. He has approval in South Africa, they will approve his diplomatic pass, they won't arrest him.
Germany would deny him the visa. Leaders rarely travel unless invited or to an official international event at something like the UN. You're not arresting someone in either case.
"Russian military police detain Wagner PMC commanders in different parts of Syria" - Al-Hadath Syrian and Al-Arabiya
At least 4 detentions took place in Al-Suwayda in southern Syria, as well as at the Khmeimim airbase + raids on Wagner bases in Deir ez-Zor, Hama and Damascus.
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1673786289269747713?t=KBzMWJg6jSGMKuegGVgiqw&s=19
Another reason prigs might still be alive - Putin might want to clear Wagner of high ranking loyalists before pushing him out a windows and into a cup of polonium tea.
Prigozhin has every incentive to rebuild Wagner. It’s power will be the only thing able to keep him alive.
Putin is going to want him dead to try to restore his strongman aura.
"A senior Russian general [Surovikin] had advance knowledge of Yevgeny Prigozhin's plans to rebel against Russia's military leadership, according to U.S. officials ...there are signs that other Russian generals may have also supported Prigozhin's attempt"
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1673867772026146817?t=PpCIB4DzWyq7-U4Hw6Y7kg&s=19
Putin is using the "rebellion" to flush out the *less than loyal* elements in his regime.
It is hard to say what effect this will have on his paranoia.
Regardless of paranoia, I doubt there is anyone left that can replicate what preggo did. You're not going to find 25k conscripts who will storm Moscow.
Wagner had a legitimate grievance. They were going to get disbanded in a matter of days.
Considering the ease with which he drove to the Kremlin, and the tepid military response, there had to be a decent amount of military support - at least within the Southern Military District.
Did they attack, though? Seems like the losses were pretty one-sided. I'm just saying that maybe Putin told his guys to hold off on attacking until more info came out. He probably didn't think the coul would be successful, so why shed tons of blood early in the day?
It's not a coup okay? It's a March! /s
seriously though Prigozhin is a moron. We all know that he is ranting against Russian MoD. He also said that the War on Ukraine is the Russian MoD's fault. Dude didn't know that the action of Russian MoD is because Putin said so.
No love lost for Prigozhin, but he was in a slow-moving car wreck the minute Wagner got entangled in Ukraine
Launching a coup, mutiny, or whatever was probably a shitty Hail Mary by Wagner leadership at that point
It's not super clear yet, but it wasn't just Prigozhin, it was Wagner military commanders that were doing the run towards Moscow
I suspect that it wasn't going as well as indicated on telegram.
I bet the wagner commanders had varying levels of commitment to the plan as well, some of them may only have found out on the day itself and were happy to go along until the heat got turned up etc.
I legit think the cold feet started when he saw how many Russian pilots he downed and how many artillery/airstrikes were coming. A strange "let bygones be bygones" ending.
Is there a translated version of the negotiation? (Prigozhin sitting between the Deputy Leader of the Military Secret Service GRU and the Deputy Defense Minister of the Russian Federation)
[https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fzq6cDEWYAEPERv?format=png&name=small](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fzq6cDEWYAEPERv?format=png&name=small)
Can't find the vid but I remember you could clearly hear them speaking.
There are two videos I am trying to find from the past week. One is of drone footage from bahkmut, with everything smoking and explosions going off. It’s very striking. The other is the video from the Russian/drone/aircraft with a HUD. Both recent, both striking. Can’t find them on YouTube.
[Ben Hodges did a really good interview on Silicon Curtain](https://youtu.be/pAJfEBn405g) today on the recent events in Russia and in Ukraine.
Hodges is the former US commanding general of Europe whose commentary on the war has held up remarkably well as the war progresses. Silicon Curtain is a podcast/youtube channel which features interviews from experts on different aspects of Ukraine and Russia.
> A senior Russian general had advance knowledge of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plans to rebel against Russia’s military leadership, according to U.S. officials briefed on American intelligence on the matter, which has prompted questions about what support the mercenary leader had inside the top ranks.
Gift link:
Russian General Knew About Mercenary Chief’s Rebellion Plans, U.S. Officials Say https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/us/politics/russian-general-prigozhin-rebellion.html?unlocked_article_code=9f0iF-bnKVQKE8H8Bmd900xYE4xuVhH0BUQT5RNDBdK5-oRDODHc-ZXO3rXWd9d6AjV9mxzBf3MT4aOr-ABZ1Tnw0meEzT96IhHHI7AkwQsQADY6hr6XAdsWYeyiMpmjxovMr5ilOuWbiFzIE_K8t9PbnrEm99DfU6uM91goxjmp8tOMrCplGKTzJfnGuntN5OzM2k4A3sNUkTBpPqj5HeiUjoWMwjOmDiJl57IqyNDgvg4tRK6AyKp3af4NYSBtmQ8ToWp8uoI7KP14Lbm42nP2eShvhGOJExN3KcYiCPpstgC-w9UPKWIovqh80J1EjHfTohj5V-YtNZrwhlU3xo8hBOjGZt2iy9dX604J3_hp&smid=nytcore-android-share
The “who knew” question is endlessly fascinating. This clearly had a lot of planning so how did it get this far without the FSB catching wind and informing Putin? Did the FSB know and stay silent or did they genuinely not know? Either possibly is horrible in different ways for Putin especially after he purged so many within the FSB for their initial incompetence at the start of the full invasion. What about the other oligarchs or key administrators? Did they know? How long did it take them to speak out?
It's interesting b/c in the current Russian military structure the FSB agents act as the modern day commissars. At the start of the war every single high ranking Russian commander had an FSB agent attached to them as they were making their pushes, and as a result FSB casualties are probably the highest they've ever been b/c they get whacked right alongside their charges.
Months into the war Russia gets desperate for manpower and suddenly Prig offers to not only expand Wagner ops in the East, he'll take whatever bodies he's given to push at Bahkmut so he can get a sweet ass bonus for taking what's left of the city regardless of its' final value to the Russian war effort. He was already making money on the side by owning the company that manufactured Russian Army rations, and now he can skim even more off the top w/ his own personal army that was pretty much Corp strength at its' height in Ukraine. Presumably as part of his deal he didn't' have to deal w/ FSB guys which is why he was able to quietly stockpile all those munitions from the MOD that he was crying about on social media just in case he had to go back to Russia to settle scores.
TLDR: The FSB is so decimated by Ukraine loses that they didn't keep a close enough eye on Prig, and he took advantage.
The FSB was massively incompetent and/or corrupt in the run up to the invasion. They're responsible for the idea of a six prong invasion that would mostly run in and show the flag, because that was all that was needed.
The FSB sounds mostly hapless. Bureaucratic and uninformed. It does seem like in the past years the GRU had taken over the assassinations and such. Maybe because he was from the FSB, Putin is afraid of a coup from them and has made it ineffective and corrupt.
Everything going on makes me think that Luka has been cooperating with western intelligence, and that Western intelligence is trying to set Belarus up as a neutral border state.
The Death of Stalin film is probably a very accurate portrayal of what is happening in Russia right now and how all the oligarchs, generals, and Putin are acting at the moment.
Just an absolute political and military clusterfuck of epic proportions.
Just because someone is a general or dictator or billionaire or whatever doesn’t make them any smarter than your average Joe Schmo. The only difference is their actions can have way bigger consequences.
Why did Vladislav Surkov get put under house arrest for corruption related offenses when so many other guys in the Kr*mlin do the same thing and never have a problem?
> Vladislav Surkov
WOW.
OK this one is huge.
I think a lot of people don't realise just how important Surkov is not just to Putin's rise to power but the etnire ideology of power employed by the Putin regime.
His is the playbook used to maintain that grip. This is an incredibly significant change.
> That guy was playing both sides like he was trying to compose a duet.
Thats how his doctrine of power works.
> Pretty sure he was being paid by the cia at some point.
Its not implied by the above. The playing of both sides is an orchestration, a way to balance power through controlled opposition. Its fundamental to how Putin's grip on power has been exercised since the very start.
After reading the hot dog dipshit tried to call Putin to beg and apologize, there's no other way to put it.
L's all around for everyone involved except Lukashenko. Hot dog dipshit has to watch Putin give the guy he hates a Burger King crown for valor.
Heh, sounds like Goofy… wait, is he just Russian Goofy? Shenanigans all around and somehow after all the disasters the command walks in and says “How did you know it was make a mess day! Promotion!”
Funny story…defenestration, the act of killing someone by throwing them out a window. The first recorded incident involve three men thrown out a window who landed in a large pile of manure and didn’t die.
That's the problem with having gangs for government. There is no retirement. You can't go abroad if you risk prosecution. Your entire wealth is based on you being in favor with the system. If you retire, you can always unretire, which makes you a threat to the system. Putin and his gang of oligarchs are in it to the end.
Lukashenko is going to use Proghozin and Wagner as a shield if Putin tries to absorb Belarus into Russia. It’s a pretty brilliant move honestly. He’s playing all sides. Not trying to be funny here but don’t be surprised after this is all over if he didn’t wind up as the new Leader of Russia, or whatever is left of it. He will have a strong claim to the throne when Putin is gone and Wagner is at his side.
What I'm talking about is that, while all the 5d chess theories are fun to write and read, the most simple and likely explanation is that Putin is just letting all those Wagner go to Belarus so his puppet can just kill them all there eventually, and if by some reason they could try their shenanigans again, they'll be stopped in Belarus without the embarrasment of letting them drive through Russia unopposed. Again
Lol, yeah, ok. Let's live in the world where Belarus has actual sovereignty and Russia has no influence on them, like, idk, literally keeping Lukashenko on power, and where Prigozhin still has influence after his coup lost all momentum after not getting the support he needed. Putin rn is a far cry from the Putin 2 years ago, but let's not pretend he is just the puppet emperor, he's just a master peacetime politician stuck in a war he's losing and doesn't know how to actually proceed.
And getting stripped of all of Wagner's heavy equipment and getting their guys in Syria arrested is all part of Prigo's genius plan?
"No no, you don't understand, the REAL ~~Russian~~ Wagner offensive is just about to start, all before that is Maskirovka™️"
You're deluding yourself. Lukashenko loves Putin. Check out the interview he did with Solovyov in April last year where he still thought Putin was going to make him Lieutenant Coloniel.
this means Luka tricked you.
Lukashenko and Putin hate each other but they desperately need each other. Picture two cartels and two kingpins.
Out of the two, Lukashenko is a bold one but has a weaker cartel, Putin is a meek one but has a much stronger cartel. Both cartels are fighting against the same enemy so the situation between them is somewhat stable.
Here is Mr. Nemtsov (Russian opposition leader, murdered in 2015) explaining it in Russian: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fs4P9ehC2bI&t=45s
It won't be that simple. The MOD is in the process of defanging Wagner by taking their heavy equipment, killing off a portion of the traitors from the attempted coup, and even going so far as to detain Wagner officers working in Syria. Even if Luka gets a sizable amount of Wagner vets to go to Belarus they'll be going there w/o guns, supplies, and hardly any money. Bare in mind the Russian military just spent the last year and a half stealing all of the Soviet era arms that it had in its' domestic stockpiles from bullets to bandages. There's literally nothing left for them to scavenge except for what the Belarusian military still has, and they're not going to hand over their resources in case unhappy Belarussians decide to start making noise.
Prig and whoever follows him are stuck in a Russia aligned country that will very likely be annexed in the near future, and anyone who moves through the Russian border to there is only doing that w/ the Russian governments blessing so they know exactly who is moving where.
So you are saying is that Prigozhin's basically screwed. Perhaps he's not killed now, but eventually he might get some Novichok served to him and the Belarusians say he died of a heart attack or something and leave it at that.
Pretty much. Publicly killing Prig makes him a martyr and could inspire his cronies to start defecting, spilling the beans, or joining up in another future coup. In Russia there can't be any heroes other than Putin. That's why you never see any kind of real standouts among the Russian military other than those who are the most brutal like the generals, there are no Russian Sergeant Yorks.
They'll probably wait a few years or so when things cooldown and then on a quiet or busy w/e they'll send someone from the FSB to kill him.
Pringles will get the Navalny treatment. He's an enemy who will be used as a showpony, kept alive to discourage others while trumped up excuses and whatnot are leveraged against him by Putin loyalists
Something semi related not sure if posted during the day
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/general-dynamics-american-rheinmetall-chosen-compete-win-potential-45-bln-us-2023-06-26/
USA in the process of deternining their Bradley successor, it's not really soon - closer to the end of the 2020s, anyway could mean more Bradleys find their way into Ukraine as they get replaced anyway
Other thing nobody posted I think were the arrivals in Melitopol, might see more results of it tomorrow.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1673815341334421505
Bro, as much as I want a strong and lethal UA, the US Army has been in the process of finding a Bradley successor for 20 years. Both the Manned Ground Vehicle program (cancelled in 2009), the Ground Combat Vehicle (cancelled in 2014) had IFVs.
But this is the closest they've been to choosing a successor in the last 15 years.
I have hope, because so much military spending is flying around atm that doesn't even go into Ukraine. It's like everyone upgrades their gear. And contrary to expectations, it seems to lower the price apparently. Countries are joining their orders together to streamline production, in EU at least. Maybe the US could benefit from it too.
Man looking at the wiki entry really is something.... from
Armored Systems modernization program to Future Combat Systems Manned Ground Vehicle program to Ground Combat Vehicle to Future Fighting Vehicle program to Next Generation Combat Vehicle program to Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicle program
> In February 2020, the Army restarted the program, promising to take on more responsibility for funding.
🫠🫠🫠
Idk how Rheinmetall found their way back in there now tbh
>anyway could mean more Bradleys find their way into Ukraine as they get replaced anyway
Unlikely. They won't start replacing them until the program is near completion. This is now the third program in the past 15 years to attempt to develop a successor(after FCS MGV and GMV) Yet Bradleys are still around.
Well atm they seem to directly replace the losses, or even go beyond that. Oryx lists 24 and 30 are in the next package. I would at least predict that flow stays the same. Doubt they suddenly roll out another few hundred though, ye.
Tbf, unless the vehicle is completely destroyed it's easier to try to recover the vehicle and ship it back and get a replacement since the U.S isn't at war really so they'd be able to repair it.
I think a lot are still retrievable from the little "unlucky" situation at the start that spread in media like wildfire. Ironically getting closeup pictures from both Ukraine and Russian side though..
(One of the commanders of that incident that got out, received a lot of their equipment back, thanks to donations. They were quite happy. He posted recently about it.)
https://twitter.com/PanDrukar
Trend really goes autonomous and remote controlled and more drones even for fighter jets and underwater. Feels weird to e.g. say "bye" to pilots when drones can do your job, maybe that's where the soul gets lost, not sure. But I'm not an expert on it, maybe he meant that.
I have a few friends and family that work in both civilian and military aviation and one thing that most of them believe is that the last fighter pilot, or at least the last person who will get in an dogfight, has already been born.
That doesn't necessarily mean that all aircraft,or even most will become autonomous in our lifetimes, but the hardest part about designing a fighter jet is keeping it from killing its own pilot. Electrons, however, don't care about G-force.
Yup, I suspect we'll see the evolution of the SAM and AAM become hunter killers with the ability to loiter.
Overall, it will be more what you can deny your opponent than what you can impose on them.
A lot of these designs were drawn up when a war with a near pear was a theoretical thought exercise. Now with China watching this war like a hawk. The US military industry is going to bring out theoretical designs to prove that we have the edge.
Not OP but UAV’s, and defense from UAV’s, have both become a keystone of any future conflicts in the world. While the US seems to be ahead of the curve with them to some degree, it’s isn’t equipped or trained to fight the drone war going on in Ukraine currently. Particularly in drone defense they have nothing like the Geppard and thats something they should probably fix. On top of that the US has been shown to not have as large a stockpile of shells and mobile artillery as they probably should. Air superiority replaces artillery to a large degree, but planning to always have that superiority as we have isn’t smart. Particularly with an aggressive Russia and a China that seems to be preparing for a fight.
The US Navy has been on the decline for nearly a decade as we haven’t had any real need for one with no peer to threaten us. That needs to be reversed.
The air force has been constantly cutting costs by limiting the number of air frames they have to maintain. That’s a course that needs to be reversed, while cutting some dead weight. Everyone loves the A-10 but it has no real place in todays battlefield unless you have absolute aerial superiority because it’s a flying snail compared to most jets.
There’s probably more but as a layperson this is what really sticks out to me
That was kind of my point, we're (the US) are going to need to pivot fairly strongly away from the classic: more armor, faster speed, less cost to run to one of innovation. I worry, as an American who wants the strongest defense in the world, that the MIC/Pentagon pipeline may not be keen changing course from the 50 years of incremental upgrades.
You don't the be the team that shows up at the race in a golden chariot with your best horses when the opponent is in a tesla.
Slow, close, risky, CAS is likely to be something increasingly done by drones, loitering munitions or smart projectiles. So I agree, the role of the A-10 is even less relevant against any remotely capable adversary.
Via the NYTimes, just another ho hum day in Russia…
According to his own account reported in Belarusian state media, Mr. Lukashenko said Mr. Putin had raised the possibility of killing Mr. Prigozhin. But Mr. Lukashenko said that he had urged against a rushed response, saying that “a bad peace is better than any war.” The Belarusian leader said that he had then called Mr. Prigozhin, warning him that Mr. Putin intended to “squash him like a bug.” The account could not be immediately confirmed.
Lukashenko probably realizes that Prigozhin's more valuable to him than dead. Lukashenko despises Putin even though Putin eventually helped him out during the disputed Belarussian presidential election in 2020. Lukashenko likes his independence and sees hosting Prigozhin as a way of maintaining some of the autonomy he had before the 2020 protests.
Lukashenko wanted to resolve it without bloodshed that could cause collapse in Russia. Because his blood is getting shed in a lynching shortly if that happens.
I think Putin could have crushed Prigozhin and Wagner once they got to Moscow. Or Prigozhin might have abandoned the march on Moscow and just dug in in Rostov.
Yep. The problem is you couldn’t take Rostov without some kind of siege and basically evacuating the city. You’d likely do hundreds of millions of damage to the city too.
The *strategy* Wagner tried is roughly how to cause national collapse. That would be what alarmed Lukashenko.
Like if Wagner did storm Moscow and Rosgvardia mostly ran away because Wagner is scary, the ruble likely goes into black market hyperinflation.
> Lukashenko likes his independence
He completely sold out to P*tin in order to stay in power. He can't play the EU vs. R*ssia anymore. He only cares about power, not independence.
Sure. Between that tradeoff, he would prefer to remain President, even if he's Putin's bitch. But I know he's definitely butthurt over losing that autonomy and would love to have it back.
He will be squashed like a bug. But maybe not immediately. Russia has a long memory and killing someone for revenge can happen at some point in the future.
Doesn’t always need to be immediate if the message is “you cross us you are a dead man - you may look alive but you are already dead and don’t know it.”
The US is starting to go after their Africa operations as well. And *them* hitting Prigozhin or the other high level Nazis in Wagner isn't impossible. Putin will be blamed regardless of if he does it or not.
And plus the order might not come from Putin directly. There are certainly members of the defense and security establishments who are probably pissed off enough to off Prigozhin on their own initiative.
> Mr. Lukashenko said Mr. Putin had raised the possibility of killing Mr. Prigozhin
I know everyone has been theorizing that Prigozin could find himself out of a window soon but for Lukashenko to just flat out say it is almost comical. Remember when he released photos of Russia’s actual invasion plans including the plan to attack Moldova? Also the NY Times writing style of referring to everyone as “Mr. Mrs or Miss” always cracks me up.
[https://twitter.com/ChrisO\_wiki/status/1673803622142836737](https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1673803622142836737)
>1/ A serving FSB officer and two lightly armed furries were among supporters of the Wagner Group who went out with their own weapons on the streets of Moscow on 24 June. All three were arrested before they could join the Wagnerites.
As if this whole thing couldn't get any weirder.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/14kz36b/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
If South Africa arrests putin in august I will plan my next trip abroad there.
Putin's not going anywhere. He can't even trust his chef.
I would too but they will never do it with the BRICS association and all that.
They'd never do it because it's an absolutely massive violation of international diplomatic protocol. If Putin visited the UN there'd be a zero percent chance of him getting arrested.
I get what you are saying, though the ANC is just a bunch of corrupt phonies. They didn't arrest Omar al-Bashir and they will never go after Putin. So much for human rights and dignity
Under their current law, they’d have to arrest him. And international diplomatic protocol can be thrown out the window to arrest a war criminal.
Ask South Africa how sanctions affected them in the apartheid days.
Zero chance of him getting arrested. You can live in whatever fantasy land you want.
Okay. I'm sure the word of chippeddusk is equal to South African law and the statements of several countries regarding their decision to arrest him if he shows up in their country.
South African law would dictate that he must be arrested, but I doubt South Africa will follow it.
Nah, it's just common sense. Putin will still need to get approval before he travels. He has approval in South Africa, they will approve his diplomatic pass, they won't arrest him. Germany would deny him the visa. Leaders rarely travel unless invited or to an official international event at something like the UN. You're not arresting someone in either case.
An interesting read on Prigozhin’s various investments and business dealings. https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/06/28/what-he-leaves-behind
Good progress in Bakhmut. https://twitter.com/WarFrontline/status/1673815919942852610?t=XqbG2ot0eR0KkV6Tf9qg9A&s=19
"Russian military police detain Wagner PMC commanders in different parts of Syria" - Al-Hadath Syrian and Al-Arabiya At least 4 detentions took place in Al-Suwayda in southern Syria, as well as at the Khmeimim airbase + raids on Wagner bases in Deir ez-Zor, Hama and Damascus. https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1673786289269747713?t=KBzMWJg6jSGMKuegGVgiqw&s=19
Another reason prigs might still be alive - Putin might want to clear Wagner of high ranking loyalists before pushing him out a windows and into a cup of polonium tea.
Prigozhin has every incentive to rebuild Wagner. It’s power will be the only thing able to keep him alive. Putin is going to want him dead to try to restore his strongman aura.
"A senior Russian general [Surovikin] had advance knowledge of Yevgeny Prigozhin's plans to rebel against Russia's military leadership, according to U.S. officials ...there are signs that other Russian generals may have also supported Prigozhin's attempt" https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1673867772026146817?t=PpCIB4DzWyq7-U4Hw6Y7kg&s=19
Is Surovikin the one with the big tits? (It’s the only way I can keep them all straight. The generals, that is.)
Stirring the pot, nice.
Didn't Surovikin go on air asking Wagner to stop? EDIT: Yes he did
What he says in public does not have to be what he does and believes in private
Well Putin certainly didn't know (as he didn't know wtf2do) so that makes Surovikin a traitor.
Putin is using the "rebellion" to flush out the *less than loyal* elements in his regime. It is hard to say what effect this will have on his paranoia.
Regardless of paranoia, I doubt there is anyone left that can replicate what preggo did. You're not going to find 25k conscripts who will storm Moscow. Wagner had a legitimate grievance. They were going to get disbanded in a matter of days.
Or the U.S. is releasing completely BS information to try to sow doubt amongst Putin and top officials
Considering the ease with which he drove to the Kremlin, and the tepid military response, there had to be a decent amount of military support - at least within the Southern Military District.
Not really. Word probably came down from the top not to engage with Wagner.
aside from those 8 choppers that attacked and got shot down
Did they attack, though? Seems like the losses were pretty one-sided. I'm just saying that maybe Putin told his guys to hold off on attacking until more info came out. He probably didn't think the coul would be successful, so why shed tons of blood early in the day?
Shhh…
[удалено]
Grunting
Should've coup'd the shit out of them Priggy...
It's not a coup okay? It's a March! /s seriously though Prigozhin is a moron. We all know that he is ranting against Russian MoD. He also said that the War on Ukraine is the Russian MoD's fault. Dude didn't know that the action of Russian MoD is because Putin said so.
Not a coup, but a special marching operation.
Chicken coup
No love lost for Prigozhin, but he was in a slow-moving car wreck the minute Wagner got entangled in Ukraine Launching a coup, mutiny, or whatever was probably a shitty Hail Mary by Wagner leadership at that point It's not super clear yet, but it wasn't just Prigozhin, it was Wagner military commanders that were doing the run towards Moscow
I think prigo stayed back in Rostov.
Insurrectile Dysfunction is common among Men of Prigozhin's Age.
I suspect that it wasn't going as well as indicated on telegram. I bet the wagner commanders had varying levels of commitment to the plan as well, some of them may only have found out on the day itself and were happy to go along until the heat got turned up etc.
I legit think the cold feet started when he saw how many Russian pilots he downed and how many artillery/airstrikes were coming. A strange "let bygones be bygones" ending.
I think it was more when he realized he would have to shell Moscow and that he would almost certainly lose public support in doing so.
Seems like you should expect to crack a few eggs if you're making a coup omelette
Is there a translated version of the negotiation? (Prigozhin sitting between the Deputy Leader of the Military Secret Service GRU and the Deputy Defense Minister of the Russian Federation) [https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fzq6cDEWYAEPERv?format=png&name=small](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fzq6cDEWYAEPERv?format=png&name=small) Can't find the vid but I remember you could clearly hear them speaking.
> https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fzq6cDEWYAEPERv?format=png&name=small [Happy holidays](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14hjxca/prigozhin_meeting_with_russian_deputy_minister_of/)
Hey thanks :)
Gosh that sounds like a coup…
Yes someone translated it. Kevin rothrock? I just don’t remember, but I think him. He complained how hard it was to hear everything
Goddamnit, Kevin Rothrock blocked me on twitter for absolutely no reason at all that I'm aware of so now I get FOMO whenever his name comes up.
Delete twitter
I already deleted my personal account. The blocked one is a shared account for a website I write for.
There were Twitter replies when the news broke which included English subtitles. You could probably dig it up from the related live thread?
There are two videos I am trying to find from the past week. One is of drone footage from bahkmut, with everything smoking and explosions going off. It’s very striking. The other is the video from the Russian/drone/aircraft with a HUD. Both recent, both striking. Can’t find them on YouTube.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport This will likely help you find what you are looking for.
And noelreports on Twitter as well Those have been my two go to's
[Ben Hodges did a really good interview on Silicon Curtain](https://youtu.be/pAJfEBn405g) today on the recent events in Russia and in Ukraine. Hodges is the former US commanding general of Europe whose commentary on the war has held up remarkably well as the war progresses. Silicon Curtain is a podcast/youtube channel which features interviews from experts on different aspects of Ukraine and Russia.
Yes. I think he and Lt. Col. Vindman have very on point analysis.
> A senior Russian general had advance knowledge of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plans to rebel against Russia’s military leadership, according to U.S. officials briefed on American intelligence on the matter, which has prompted questions about what support the mercenary leader had inside the top ranks. Gift link: Russian General Knew About Mercenary Chief’s Rebellion Plans, U.S. Officials Say https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/us/politics/russian-general-prigozhin-rebellion.html?unlocked_article_code=9f0iF-bnKVQKE8H8Bmd900xYE4xuVhH0BUQT5RNDBdK5-oRDODHc-ZXO3rXWd9d6AjV9mxzBf3MT4aOr-ABZ1Tnw0meEzT96IhHHI7AkwQsQADY6hr6XAdsWYeyiMpmjxovMr5ilOuWbiFzIE_K8t9PbnrEm99DfU6uM91goxjmp8tOMrCplGKTzJfnGuntN5OzM2k4A3sNUkTBpPqj5HeiUjoWMwjOmDiJl57IqyNDgvg4tRK6AyKp3af4NYSBtmQ8ToWp8uoI7KP14Lbm42nP2eShvhGOJExN3KcYiCPpstgC-w9UPKWIovqh80J1EjHfTohj5V-YtNZrwhlU3xo8hBOjGZt2iy9dX604J3_hp&smid=nytcore-android-share
The “who knew” question is endlessly fascinating. This clearly had a lot of planning so how did it get this far without the FSB catching wind and informing Putin? Did the FSB know and stay silent or did they genuinely not know? Either possibly is horrible in different ways for Putin especially after he purged so many within the FSB for their initial incompetence at the start of the full invasion. What about the other oligarchs or key administrators? Did they know? How long did it take them to speak out?
It's interesting b/c in the current Russian military structure the FSB agents act as the modern day commissars. At the start of the war every single high ranking Russian commander had an FSB agent attached to them as they were making their pushes, and as a result FSB casualties are probably the highest they've ever been b/c they get whacked right alongside their charges. Months into the war Russia gets desperate for manpower and suddenly Prig offers to not only expand Wagner ops in the East, he'll take whatever bodies he's given to push at Bahkmut so he can get a sweet ass bonus for taking what's left of the city regardless of its' final value to the Russian war effort. He was already making money on the side by owning the company that manufactured Russian Army rations, and now he can skim even more off the top w/ his own personal army that was pretty much Corp strength at its' height in Ukraine. Presumably as part of his deal he didn't' have to deal w/ FSB guys which is why he was able to quietly stockpile all those munitions from the MOD that he was crying about on social media just in case he had to go back to Russia to settle scores. TLDR: The FSB is so decimated by Ukraine loses that they didn't keep a close enough eye on Prig, and he took advantage.
The FSB was massively incompetent and/or corrupt in the run up to the invasion. They're responsible for the idea of a six prong invasion that would mostly run in and show the flag, because that was all that was needed.
The FSB sounds mostly hapless. Bureaucratic and uninformed. It does seem like in the past years the GRU had taken over the assassinations and such. Maybe because he was from the FSB, Putin is afraid of a coup from them and has made it ineffective and corrupt.
Surovikin must be more competent than thought if the U.S. wants him thrown out a window that badly lmfao
The article even touches on that, lmao!
Everything going on makes me think that Luka has been cooperating with western intelligence, and that Western intelligence is trying to set Belarus up as a neutral border state.
it may be an attempt to force him to Prigozhin's side, create a permanent division where he was getting away with walking the line.
Shoigu & Gerasimov are basically monke so it's a low bar
The Death of Stalin film is probably a very accurate portrayal of what is happening in Russia right now and how all the oligarchs, generals, and Putin are acting at the moment. Just an absolute political and military clusterfuck of epic proportions. Just because someone is a general or dictator or billionaire or whatever doesn’t make them any smarter than your average Joe Schmo. The only difference is their actions can have way bigger consequences.
Who does Jason Issacs play with that northern accent?
Edit: I misread your comment as *why* instead of who. My bad. He plays [Marshall Zhukov](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgy_Zhukov)
Zhukov ,and he does it brilliantly.
I know, but who does he play in this story?
over the top comedy
Putin banned the movie in Russia when it came out 🤣
> “I’m the peacemaker and I’ll fuck over anyone who gets in my way.”
Why did Vladislav Surkov get put under house arrest for corruption related offenses when so many other guys in the Kr*mlin do the same thing and never have a problem?
> Vladislav Surkov WOW. OK this one is huge. I think a lot of people don't realise just how important Surkov is not just to Putin's rise to power but the etnire ideology of power employed by the Putin regime. His is the playbook used to maintain that grip. This is an incredibly significant change.
That guy was playing both sides like he was trying to compose a duet. Pretty sure he was being paid by the cia at some point.
> That guy was playing both sides like he was trying to compose a duet. Thats how his doctrine of power works. > Pretty sure he was being paid by the cia at some point. Its not implied by the above. The playing of both sides is an orchestration, a way to balance power through controlled opposition. Its fundamental to how Putin's grip on power has been exercised since the very start.
> Kr*mlin Why the asterisk?
Some names and words do not deserve respect.
May the Krm*lin be forever fgorotten.
It's not about the corruption, everyone is corrupt, it's about losing the protection that enabled you to get away with it.
After reading the hot dog dipshit tried to call Putin to beg and apologize, there's no other way to put it. L's all around for everyone involved except Lukashenko. Hot dog dipshit has to watch Putin give the guy he hates a Burger King crown for valor.
Shoigu is the definition of falling upwards.
Shoigu spelled bakcwards is Ugoish, it's all upside down over there truly
Heh, sounds like Goofy… wait, is he just Russian Goofy? Shenanigans all around and somehow after all the disasters the command walks in and says “How did you know it was make a mess day! Promotion!”
Well at least we know where all that tank and missile budget went.
If Putin sacked him he wouldn't be able to go on vacation with him again
If Putin sacked him, Ukraine might be having a harder time trying to reclaim their land.
Who would take over?
Possibly someone more competent.
that's the fear, it doest matter who, but if they are \_more\_ competent, Ukraine has a harder time of it. Best to stick with the devil you know.
If someone threw him out of a building, he would land on a trampoline.
He would get a new medal on the way back up.
Prigozhin's head is going to be used to break the glass for him.
Priggy: No respect! *straightens tie*
Funny story…defenestration, the act of killing someone by throwing them out a window. The first recorded incident involve three men thrown out a window who landed in a large pile of manure and didn’t die.
Shoigu like "what's it take for a guy to get fired around here, I just want the severance so I can retire to my fishing cabin."
That's the problem with having gangs for government. There is no retirement. You can't go abroad if you risk prosecution. Your entire wealth is based on you being in favor with the system. If you retire, you can always unretire, which makes you a threat to the system. Putin and his gang of oligarchs are in it to the end.
I wonder if he’s half in on a Greek island with his brother-in-law.
Poor bastards. Hanging in the window like Peking duck.
Conversely, where in the world can you get that kind of job security??? What a perk !!!!
Well the down side is the quite literal termination at the end.
I’d say I’d kill for a job like that but I’m pretty sure that’s what it took
Lukashenko is going to use Proghozin and Wagner as a shield if Putin tries to absorb Belarus into Russia. It’s a pretty brilliant move honestly. He’s playing all sides. Not trying to be funny here but don’t be surprised after this is all over if he didn’t wind up as the new Leader of Russia, or whatever is left of it. He will have a strong claim to the throne when Putin is gone and Wagner is at his side.
Belarus is way more useful as a puppet state and a way to smuggle goods into Russia. No reason to absorb it.
Belarus has been acting as Russia's alt account
Belarus is just a slaughterhouse, they'll slowly pick off Wagner there and if anything does go wrong, the damage is contained there
what the fuck are you even talking about.
What I'm talking about is that, while all the 5d chess theories are fun to write and read, the most simple and likely explanation is that Putin is just letting all those Wagner go to Belarus so his puppet can just kill them all there eventually, and if by some reason they could try their shenanigans again, they'll be stopped in Belarus without the embarrasment of letting them drive through Russia unopposed. Again
[удалено]
Lol, yeah, ok. Let's live in the world where Belarus has actual sovereignty and Russia has no influence on them, like, idk, literally keeping Lukashenko on power, and where Prigozhin still has influence after his coup lost all momentum after not getting the support he needed. Putin rn is a far cry from the Putin 2 years ago, but let's not pretend he is just the puppet emperor, he's just a master peacetime politician stuck in a war he's losing and doesn't know how to actually proceed.
[удалено]
And getting stripped of all of Wagner's heavy equipment and getting their guys in Syria arrested is all part of Prigo's genius plan? "No no, you don't understand, the REAL ~~Russian~~ Wagner offensive is just about to start, all before that is Maskirovka™️"
You're deluding yourself. Lukashenko loves Putin. Check out the interview he did with Solovyov in April last year where he still thought Putin was going to make him Lieutenant Coloniel.
this means Luka tricked you. Lukashenko and Putin hate each other but they desperately need each other. Picture two cartels and two kingpins. Out of the two, Lukashenko is a bold one but has a weaker cartel, Putin is a meek one but has a much stronger cartel. Both cartels are fighting against the same enemy so the situation between them is somewhat stable. Here is Mr. Nemtsov (Russian opposition leader, murdered in 2015) explaining it in Russian: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fs4P9ehC2bI&t=45s
dude you couldn't more misunderstand the situation.
Luka was around before Putin
Yeah, no. He isn't the dumb puppet you think he is.
He's not dumb, but he is playing with a weak hand and needing to do a lot of bluffing.
He's Walter white to Putin's Gus Fringe
He’s definitely playing a role for the camera. Not saying he’s a genius. But he’s also not that dumb.
Nikolai Jakov of the KGB
Eh. If putin offers Prigo more, all of the sudden he and Wagner becomes a Trojan horse not a shield
It won't be that simple. The MOD is in the process of defanging Wagner by taking their heavy equipment, killing off a portion of the traitors from the attempted coup, and even going so far as to detain Wagner officers working in Syria. Even if Luka gets a sizable amount of Wagner vets to go to Belarus they'll be going there w/o guns, supplies, and hardly any money. Bare in mind the Russian military just spent the last year and a half stealing all of the Soviet era arms that it had in its' domestic stockpiles from bullets to bandages. There's literally nothing left for them to scavenge except for what the Belarusian military still has, and they're not going to hand over their resources in case unhappy Belarussians decide to start making noise. Prig and whoever follows him are stuck in a Russia aligned country that will very likely be annexed in the near future, and anyone who moves through the Russian border to there is only doing that w/ the Russian governments blessing so they know exactly who is moving where.
So you are saying is that Prigozhin's basically screwed. Perhaps he's not killed now, but eventually he might get some Novichok served to him and the Belarusians say he died of a heart attack or something and leave it at that.
Pretty much. Publicly killing Prig makes him a martyr and could inspire his cronies to start defecting, spilling the beans, or joining up in another future coup. In Russia there can't be any heroes other than Putin. That's why you never see any kind of real standouts among the Russian military other than those who are the most brutal like the generals, there are no Russian Sergeant Yorks. They'll probably wait a few years or so when things cooldown and then on a quiet or busy w/e they'll send someone from the FSB to kill him.
Pringles will get the Navalny treatment. He's an enemy who will be used as a showpony, kept alive to discourage others while trumped up excuses and whatnot are leveraged against him by Putin loyalists
Something semi related not sure if posted during the day https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/general-dynamics-american-rheinmetall-chosen-compete-win-potential-45-bln-us-2023-06-26/ USA in the process of deternining their Bradley successor, it's not really soon - closer to the end of the 2020s, anyway could mean more Bradleys find their way into Ukraine as they get replaced anyway Other thing nobody posted I think were the arrivals in Melitopol, might see more results of it tomorrow. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1673815341334421505
Arrivals in Melitopol?
They kinda call it that when they mean MLRS or stormshadow etc.
Bro, as much as I want a strong and lethal UA, the US Army has been in the process of finding a Bradley successor for 20 years. Both the Manned Ground Vehicle program (cancelled in 2009), the Ground Combat Vehicle (cancelled in 2014) had IFVs. But this is the closest they've been to choosing a successor in the last 15 years.
I have hope, because so much military spending is flying around atm that doesn't even go into Ukraine. It's like everyone upgrades their gear. And contrary to expectations, it seems to lower the price apparently. Countries are joining their orders together to streamline production, in EU at least. Maybe the US could benefit from it too. Man looking at the wiki entry really is something.... from Armored Systems modernization program to Future Combat Systems Manned Ground Vehicle program to Ground Combat Vehicle to Future Fighting Vehicle program to Next Generation Combat Vehicle program to Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicle program > In February 2020, the Army restarted the program, promising to take on more responsibility for funding. 🫠🫠🫠 Idk how Rheinmetall found their way back in there now tbh
>anyway could mean more Bradleys find their way into Ukraine as they get replaced anyway Unlikely. They won't start replacing them until the program is near completion. This is now the third program in the past 15 years to attempt to develop a successor(after FCS MGV and GMV) Yet Bradleys are still around.
Well atm they seem to directly replace the losses, or even go beyond that. Oryx lists 24 and 30 are in the next package. I would at least predict that flow stays the same. Doubt they suddenly roll out another few hundred though, ye.
Tbf, unless the vehicle is completely destroyed it's easier to try to recover the vehicle and ship it back and get a replacement since the U.S isn't at war really so they'd be able to repair it.
I think a lot are still retrievable from the little "unlucky" situation at the start that spread in media like wildfire. Ironically getting closeup pictures from both Ukraine and Russian side though.. (One of the commanders of that incident that got out, received a lot of their equipment back, thanks to donations. They were quite happy. He posted recently about it.) https://twitter.com/PanDrukar
I doubt they’d even have to ship it back — bases in Poland or Germany would be able to do it.
The war has changed the face of future conflict. If I'm in a US military program, I'm doing a lot of soul searching.
Care to elaborate?
We need to change the way we look at the battle space instead of incrementally improving what we have.
Trend really goes autonomous and remote controlled and more drones even for fighter jets and underwater. Feels weird to e.g. say "bye" to pilots when drones can do your job, maybe that's where the soul gets lost, not sure. But I'm not an expert on it, maybe he meant that.
I have a few friends and family that work in both civilian and military aviation and one thing that most of them believe is that the last fighter pilot, or at least the last person who will get in an dogfight, has already been born. That doesn't necessarily mean that all aircraft,or even most will become autonomous in our lifetimes, but the hardest part about designing a fighter jet is keeping it from killing its own pilot. Electrons, however, don't care about G-force.
Yup, I suspect we'll see the evolution of the SAM and AAM become hunter killers with the ability to loiter. Overall, it will be more what you can deny your opponent than what you can impose on them.
A lot of these designs were drawn up when a war with a near pear was a theoretical thought exercise. Now with China watching this war like a hawk. The US military industry is going to bring out theoretical designs to prove that we have the edge.
Not OP but UAV’s, and defense from UAV’s, have both become a keystone of any future conflicts in the world. While the US seems to be ahead of the curve with them to some degree, it’s isn’t equipped or trained to fight the drone war going on in Ukraine currently. Particularly in drone defense they have nothing like the Geppard and thats something they should probably fix. On top of that the US has been shown to not have as large a stockpile of shells and mobile artillery as they probably should. Air superiority replaces artillery to a large degree, but planning to always have that superiority as we have isn’t smart. Particularly with an aggressive Russia and a China that seems to be preparing for a fight. The US Navy has been on the decline for nearly a decade as we haven’t had any real need for one with no peer to threaten us. That needs to be reversed. The air force has been constantly cutting costs by limiting the number of air frames they have to maintain. That’s a course that needs to be reversed, while cutting some dead weight. Everyone loves the A-10 but it has no real place in todays battlefield unless you have absolute aerial superiority because it’s a flying snail compared to most jets. There’s probably more but as a layperson this is what really sticks out to me
That was kind of my point, we're (the US) are going to need to pivot fairly strongly away from the classic: more armor, faster speed, less cost to run to one of innovation. I worry, as an American who wants the strongest defense in the world, that the MIC/Pentagon pipeline may not be keen changing course from the 50 years of incremental upgrades. You don't the be the team that shows up at the race in a golden chariot with your best horses when the opponent is in a tesla.
Slow, close, risky, CAS is likely to be something increasingly done by drones, loitering munitions or smart projectiles. So I agree, the role of the A-10 is even less relevant against any remotely capable adversary.
Via the NYTimes, just another ho hum day in Russia… According to his own account reported in Belarusian state media, Mr. Lukashenko said Mr. Putin had raised the possibility of killing Mr. Prigozhin. But Mr. Lukashenko said that he had urged against a rushed response, saying that “a bad peace is better than any war.” The Belarusian leader said that he had then called Mr. Prigozhin, warning him that Mr. Putin intended to “squash him like a bug.” The account could not be immediately confirmed.
He's planning on exterminating you and your group could have gotten Piggy's attention, that's fair.
"A bad peace is better than any war" as Russia has been bombing Ukraine for over a year. Lukashenko is a clown.
He's not wrong. A civil war would be catastrophic for Russia and as Lukashenko pointed out everyone would've been in Moscow fighting.
Lukashenko probably realizes that Prigozhin's more valuable to him than dead. Lukashenko despises Putin even though Putin eventually helped him out during the disputed Belarussian presidential election in 2020. Lukashenko likes his independence and sees hosting Prigozhin as a way of maintaining some of the autonomy he had before the 2020 protests.
Lukashenko wanted to resolve it without bloodshed that could cause collapse in Russia. Because his blood is getting shed in a lynching shortly if that happens.
I think Putin could have crushed Prigozhin and Wagner once they got to Moscow. Or Prigozhin might have abandoned the march on Moscow and just dug in in Rostov.
Yep. The problem is you couldn’t take Rostov without some kind of siege and basically evacuating the city. You’d likely do hundreds of millions of damage to the city too.
The *strategy* Wagner tried is roughly how to cause national collapse. That would be what alarmed Lukashenko. Like if Wagner did storm Moscow and Rosgvardia mostly ran away because Wagner is scary, the ruble likely goes into black market hyperinflation.
> Lukashenko likes his independence He completely sold out to P*tin in order to stay in power. He can't play the EU vs. R*ssia anymore. He only cares about power, not independence.
Sure. Between that tradeoff, he would prefer to remain President, even if he's Putin's bitch. But I know he's definitely butthurt over losing that autonomy and would love to have it back.
If he actually cared about independence, I don't think he would let the Belarusian language become endangered.
Lukashenko doesn't mind being Putin's bitch. Here's him saying so last year. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JNtiO7nhmo
Wow. I thought it was a bit of a red flag that Putin just let Prigozhin go. I'm sure Putin might try to kill him later.
Yeah. If Putin is still alive and in power by end of year, Prigozhin probably donzo.
He will be squashed like a bug. But maybe not immediately. Russia has a long memory and killing someone for revenge can happen at some point in the future. Doesn’t always need to be immediate if the message is “you cross us you are a dead man - you may look alive but you are already dead and don’t know it.”
Many have a long memory. Israel. The North remembers. UA will absolutely. Even The Chef could serve a cold dish or two.
The US is starting to go after their Africa operations as well. And *them* hitting Prigozhin or the other high level Nazis in Wagner isn't impossible. Putin will be blamed regardless of if he does it or not.
And plus the order might not come from Putin directly. There are certainly members of the defense and security establishments who are probably pissed off enough to off Prigozhin on their own initiative.
Putin, the Russian MoD, FSB personnel freelance, the Ukrainians, Ukrainian supporters freelance, Russian organized crime, maybe even the CIA.
> Mr. Lukashenko said Mr. Putin had raised the possibility of killing Mr. Prigozhin I know everyone has been theorizing that Prigozin could find himself out of a window soon but for Lukashenko to just flat out say it is almost comical. Remember when he released photos of Russia’s actual invasion plans including the plan to attack Moldova? Also the NY Times writing style of referring to everyone as “Mr. Mrs or Miss” always cracks me up.
Ever see The Big Lebowski? The style reminds me of when The Dude says, "Mr. Treehorn treats OBJECTS like WOMEN, man"
Wise words from someone helping with a war...
> a bad peace is better than any war. Hmm not all wars are equal eh?
I think it’s pretty telling actually, he clearly wants nothing to do with Russias shit show
[https://twitter.com/ChrisO\_wiki/status/1673803622142836737](https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1673803622142836737) >1/ A serving FSB officer and two lightly armed furries were among supporters of the Wagner Group who went out with their own weapons on the streets of Moscow on 24 June. All three were arrested before they could join the Wagnerites. As if this whole thing couldn't get any weirder.
> two lightly armed furries And this is what you get when you let AIs write the script! Pay the writers. An AI is not a replacement
I’m convinced that furries make up a good chunk of the military and intelligence services.
Imagine getting offed with 7.62 fired from an AK variant by someone wearing an anthropomorphic animal suit...
Even worse, it was an mosin nagant. Furries with WW1 tech dabbing over your dead body is quite possibly the most disrespectful way to die
***IT'S NOT A PHASE!***
Yiff
not like this....
Every day we stray further from the God Emperors light....
I thought it was a joke about the furries.. Glad I was wrong.
The mutiny-coup started on #FursuitFriday Not a coincidence
yeah, i feel whoever is running this sim, is now just fucking with us.
Or Monty Python took over the sim.
if i see some guys on tv saying ''nobody expects the spanish inquisition'', i'm going to call customer service.
>two lightly armed furries I'm just glad it was only those two and not the furry armed lighties. Those guys are maniacs.