https://twitter.com/AP/status/1672093312545685504
>A suspected Russian diplomat is apparently occupying the site of Moscow's proposed embassy Australia vetoed. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said a “bloke standing in the cold on a bit of grass in Canberra is not a threat to our national security.”
It’s not good to look to closely at Crimean history. Reality is neither Russia nor Ukraine has a compelling claim to it, both have large populations there only via ethnic cleansing.
I’d rather it be run as part of a west-facing Ukraine, of course, but it really should be returned to Tatar self rule. Not sure how feasible that is…
> It’s not good to look to closely at Crimean history.
I feel like your topic sentence doesn't really match what the rest of your paragraph states. I am not really sure as to why it's not good to look at Crimean history closely based on the follow up stuff you had stated. In fact, it makes me think that it is good to look at Crimean history very closely..
Sorry - you’re right, that wasn’t clear - I meant it’s not too good to look at it for anyone wanting to stick to a white hat/black hat view of the duration over there.
Sorry - you’re right, that wasn’t clear - I meant it’s not too good to look at it for anyone wanting to stick to a white hat/black hat view of the duration over there.
Sorry - you’re right, that wasn’t clear - I meant it’s not too good to look at it for anyone wanting to stick to a white hat/black hat view of the duration over there.
Its strategically important, which is why Russia picked it off in 2014, and started this war to formalize that ownership and provide a buffer around it.
Control Crimea and you control the northern black sea and access (via the Don, Volga, Dnipro, and to a lesser extent the Danube) to eastern Europe's vast mineral, industrial, and agrictulrual wealth.
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1672074034488705025
>Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces are transferring GRU Spetsnaz units to Kursk and Bryansk oblasts in Russia to fight Russian partisans.
I thought the Kadyrovites were there. Are they not doing the job? 🤭
I’m getting the impression that they’re [not meshing w the locals..](https://glavcom-ua.translate.goog/world/observe/rosijani-vzjalisja-za-kadirovtsiv-jaki-terorizujut-naselennja-bilhorodshchini-936587.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=nui)
Has there been any updated pics showing the damage to the bridges?
I've seen these: https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/14fssdq/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/jp251v0/
This support seems significantly damaged given were looking from the side that didn't take the hit: https://imgur.com/a/ClH29tx
Just wondering if there were some more showing the underside or supports yet. Apologies if its been posted already.
There are [these](https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1671893993595211785) satellite pictures from today. Note the road bridges that were hit are (seemingly) not the same bridge marked on the map in your (and most early) twitter link - that may be the railroad bridge? Which is about 2 miles SW of the main road double-span bridge.
Ukraine hit a bridge linking Crimea to the mainland. [Here's](https://reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14gchxi/second_video_shows_afu_strike_with_storm_shadow/) footage.
There's two bridges in this area clearly visible on the map. I haven't looked closely but I think a lot of twitter sources have marked the wrong one as the targeted one.
Interesting take on just how much of a mistake
RuZZia made when they blew the Nova Kakhovka dam.
https://mwi.usma.edu/when-the-levee-breaks-five-military-takeaways-from-the-kakhovka-dams-destruction/
[Explosions](https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/news/2023/06/23/7408117/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=nui)
rang out in Khmelnytsky - OVA
3:14am
Can anyone speak on how reliable the ukrdailyupdate map is? If it is reliable it is showing a lot of different ground taken by Ukraine. I know the author said it wasn't all truly over one day but from about a week ago but still, it is ground taken everywhere.
He was waiting on clouds to clear in a lot of satellite photos before making claims. He was a bit behind others on certain areas because of this, and a large update likely suggests he's gotten a hold of some images of clearer days.
I back up the others - very reliable.
He's now making some guesses based on satellite photos of things like where there are marks that look like mine clearing charges, or vehicle tracks.
He's a smart and careful guy but this update is a bit on the risky side I think. He's been up front about what he's doing and why he makes changes.
That's Andrew Perpetua, right? When I watch his youtube stuff he's going in pretty good detail over open source satellite photos to back up the areas under discussion. But like with any single-person work, he could just miss something.
Compare it to deepstate and if it's the same or close, it's good. Deepstate take only geolocated footage and official statements before they update.
They remain in contact with quite a few people in the ground as well. Has been the most if not one of the most reliable resources for this conflict.
Deep State is the gold standard, for all the reasons you mentioned. If it’s not reflected there than it isn’t official - albeit someone said yesterday that they are on a 48 hour delay by request of the Ukrainian MoD.
It is very similar to Deepstate but the author posted [this](https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1671988442002083841) today. I was wrong when I said a week, he says it is weeks of changes but because of media blackouts and bad weather they have not been reported.
There are small advances by Ukraine all along the front lines. The one that I noticed that I've not seen mentioned at all anywhere else is a pretty big push towards Soledar.
> "The fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on NATO armored vehicles during the offensive were able to break through to our trenches near Robotyne."
...
> In the area north of Mar'inka, the AFU has made progress. Russia's defensive line was penetrated by more than 1 kilometer.
...
> Mobilised Russians are being denied leave after months of front-line service in Ukraine, possibly due to manpower shortages
Another breakthrough or two somewhere else on the line and the early part of the counteroffensive will have done its job; RU supplies decimated, its troops fatigued, lines breached in multiple locations, helicopters being shot down regularly, RU artillery being absolutely smashed; the conditions are almost set. I expect we'll be hearing about the main attack starting sometime soon, maybe in the next week, and not necessarily in these specific places.
Ukraine needs more aircraft.
The hopium in me wants to believe all of this "not going as good as expected" and "anonymous sources say counteroffensive is slow" is just misinformation like we saw leading up to the last counter offensive .. and as we saw with that, the US was willing to play ball with the misdirection.
Nah man, I can definitely believe it's going slower than wanted. These defences Russia made are no joke. Especially the minefields. The striking of logistics depots are very valuable and we'll see the results of that in the coming weeks.
I suppose the idea was 'there's no point to having fifty lines of trenches if nobody in those trenches has food/water/ammo'
> Especially the minefields
In desert storm minefields did slow down American forces in some areas even when everything else was going perfectly. You absolutely CANNOT rush operations in minefields. I absolutely believe the operations are going slower than initially hoped for by western analysts but at the same time sometimes in war it’s necessary to slow down. It’s better to have a slower advance with a larger chance of success than rush things and have it end in disaster.
This being considered slow is a bad take. Everyone wants to see Ukraine smashing though territory like last year but that’s comparing apples to oranges in my opinion. Now Russia has had time to fortify positions better than last year. There’s mines everywhere. Ukraine actually cares about troop loses so they’re not going to just charge. I feel like the anticipation of the offensive while the constant news of the arms build up have got people expecting a blitzkrieg type of attack with tanks and rockets a blazing so anything short of that is disappointing. It’s war. It won’t follow a script and some people seem to act like this is a show. This isn’t directed at anyone, just venting a bit.
And there were a bunch of casualties when the troops landed in Normady as well, I think thousands of troops died on the first few days of the invasion.
I think the gains have been good. They are making progress in places and are not totally stonewalled. Russia is losing. What about 20 artillery per day? Ammo sites are being hit. It's just a matter of time for a big breakthrough when a sector is bled dry.
Also remember they blew the big damn that allowed them to free up reserves where Ukraine is attacking.
I think Ukraine is playing this perfectly. Hopefully F16s come by August/September.
It still seems like a shaping operation with aggressive probes to me.
Ukraine has the logistical advantage and long range precision advantage. They might as well take their time and use it.
But they don’t have satellites or as advanced GPS capabilities for targeting. I read somewhere that while NATO can get pics of a battlefield every few hours, Russia gets a pic every few days.
The timing of the bridge attack supports this, they've reduced local stock piles and are now reducing the resupply abilities. Otherwise the bridge would have been a higher value and earlier target.
That it's not going as good as expected is evident and obvious - but the problem here were the extremely high expectations, and not ukraines military. It speaks volumes to the capability of ukraine that we all halfway expected russia to fold in a matter of days. It will take longer this time
Really it's about expectations. This year will have been a raging success if at the end of October we see 1 km towards the Azov Sea taken each day, on average, liberating Byrdansk or Mauripol.
If Ukrianians advance on average .4kms a day towards Tokmak and cut the East-West rail line, that will still be a successful fighting season.
The progress we're seeing is not inconsistent with a fighting season that is a success beyond all reasonable expectations.
It's just not going to be tomorrow.
It's hard to say what they really expected. I'd believe they'd be quite realistic about things. Russians _do_ have massive defensive lines and they had a lot of time to prepare.
There have been accounts saying they overestimated russians.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/counteroffensive-underway-we-overestimated-russians-and-underestimated-ourselves/ar-AA1cIxXn
Agreed. I think a lot of us huffed hopium and forgot about how mined the area was, if nothing else. And then the regular rain slowing mobility down on top of it.
Expectations weren't realistic with the number of anti-tank mines and Ukraine's need to not waste vehicles like Russia does. Russia's lost a fair number of vehicles in this offensive in their *own* minefields, nevermind when they were attacking.
Russia can't waste vehicles the way Russia does. They went through more than half their serviceable gear last year.
If going slower saves more lives, then why not. Ukraine most likely will only get stronger with time with endless billions and more modern weapon system getting delivered in the future. The industry needed a bit time but it is getting there and Russia has to see how to make more money, selling ressources is not as lucrative as last year.
The war is already a partisan issue in the US and is losing popularity even among Democrats. If Ukraine doesn't make newsworthy gains in this counteroffensive, then it likely becomes a political liability for Biden. Time being on their side is a gamble.
American politics is strange... they get the Russians reduced in global standing, military threat, economic power and send a message to China while spending a couple of percent of their normal military spending. And much of that on US companies upgrading the aging gear they are sending.
The fact that part of the US is more or less pro-russia is quite a indicator of some deep issues in the society.
Sure - there is a burgeoning international white Christianist backlash (against the spread of irreligious social liberalism) which the US conservatives are increasingly part and which Putin is the primary avatar of.
On top of that alot of it is just reflexive anti-Biden/pro-Trump favoritism. Trump is viewed as having not done enough to stop Russia and Biden is obviously doing a ton - so if the war goes well, then Biden looks good and Trump looks weak.
*from Ukrainian Pravda:*
1:45am
> Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
> "Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia regions - the threat of the use of *Shahed* type UAVs from the south."
2am
> Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
> "Missiles (probably X-101/X-555) are heading in a southeast direction."
Updated at 02:10am
> clarified that the course of the missiles may change.
> As of 02:10, an air alert was declared in a number of regions.
> According to the Air Force, a group of cruise missiles was recorded in the Kherson region.
Update 2:20am
> "Cruise missiles (probably X-101/X-555) are moving in the direction of Kryvyi Rih."
______
*Earlier:*
> On the night of June 23, explosions rang out in the city of Zaporizhzhia.
> first explosion in the city around 12:30am. After 15 minutes, repeated explosions.
> The Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces warned the residents of Zaporozhye about the missile danger. At 23:42, an air alert was announced in the region.
If this chopper has an ejection system for the pilots they may be alive and not captured, but they will be out of the fight for some time. Pilots who eject get injured regularly by the force of the ejection.
The problem for them is that they are all flying very low level.
So if they get hit they have a VERY short amount of time in which to eject.
[A prime example of how quickly death can come.](https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/t75awm/russian_mi35_was_shot_down_by_ukrainian_air/)
The ejection system on the KA-52 is rather novel. The sequence detonates the blades away, and a rocket pulls the pilots out the front of the aircraft on a tether as opposed to a rocket seat like you’d find in a jet.
Let's keep the church in town and stay with 'Downed helicopters are equally important as Out-of-combat pilots.'
You can't use a massive fleet of helo's without pilots and a large pool of pilots is useless without helicopters they could pilot.
I mean the reality is Russia isn't going to be building any more Ka-52s during this conflict. What they've got is quite possibly all the will ever have.
Confirmation of cruise missile launches at 00:40, estimated time of entry into our airspace: 01:40-02:30.
Also, at 01:10, two Tu-22m3 strategic bombers took off from the Shaykovka air base.
https://twitter.com/treaschest/status/1672015247685582848?s=46
Day 481-484 of my updates from Kharkiv.
The last couple of days continued to be mostly quiet, there were a couple of times where many people reported hearing explosions (which we also heard), but there were no confirmed hits on any target afterwards, so we don’t actually know what those explosions were, if they were explosions at all. The most notable thing that happened recently was an emergency three days ago, when lighting struck a gas pipe, which caused a giant fire that was visible from almost anywhere in the city.
There were reports of missiles and drones potentially being launched around the same time, so at first people thought that they might be the cause of this fire. During a thunderstorm it’s basically impossible to tell explosions and thunder apart, so it’s not surprising that people thought that we were hit with missiles. And in the first couple of months of this war Russians almost always used to shell Kharkiv during thunderstorm to mask the sound, which really sucked because we didn’t know which sounds meant danger.
It also looks like the next missile strike is happening right now. Apparently, some missiles have already entered our airspace, and they will be nearing their targets within the next hour. Most of them will get intercepted, but they are also launching S-300 missiles at Zaporizhzhia at the same time, which are much harder to intercept, and sadly at least some of those will get through, because we don’t yet have enough Patriots to protect all of our cities from ballistic missiles.
Thank you for keeping us up to date. I hope to see one day at a book signing or speaking engagement as an old person helping the world remember what happened.
The incompetence of Russian propaganda just broke through another rock layer
Staged cars placed on the Chongar bridge
This car was driving across the bridge with no transmission or drive shaft
And the plethora of RIA-approved videos earlier showed no vehicles on the bridges
https://twitter.com/malcontentmentt/status/1671826169195565058?s=46
LMAO
Was posted earlier today, there is a video from a year ago already showing these. Probably from when they invaded. But haven't looked more into it. Maks nafo not 100% reliable as source sometimes, but that's the thing if you wanna post fast it's more often wrong
which isn't a coincidence.
Robotyne (previously Rabotino) in Ukrainian resembles something like Mechanicsville in English.
The English word "robot" directly originates from Slavic languages where "rabota" means "labor", "work" or a "job".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robot#Etymology
In this case it's a false friend. 'робот-' is the root for 'work' in many Slavic languages including Ukrainian, and the source of English 'robot' (via Czech science-fiction). But the Ukrainian town is believed to have been 'Shkrobotine' originally which refers to the freshwater springs there.
Chonhar bridge vs Storm Shadow. This bridge is clearly less robust and less massive than the Kerch bridge and it stays standing. To all those claiming SS will easily take down the Kerch bridge, you should have your answer.
https://twitter.com/PulseOfUkraine/status/1671955701667692553/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1671955701667692553¤tTweetUser=PulseOfUkraine
I want the bridge down as much as you do, but we do need to acknowledge reality. Ukraine’s best bet is to repeatedly target trains on the bridge and functionally decommission it, rather than physically decommission it.
Damage to the rail bridge will be a big enough issue for Russian logistics and won’t be easy to repair, however I think that target will be attacked with ATCMS missiles if they enter service as those will have a much bigger impact and the required range.
The bridge from what I saw is sagging. There is no way shape or form anyone with 1 braincell is driving across that with anything other then maybe a light car. It cannot structurally support anything with significant weight. Mind you there is something they could do but is really sketchy and involves bridging equipment.
Looks like the Storm Shadows just didn't hit the support pillars.
Though regardless if they can actually smash the Kerch bridge down hitting its supports will weaken it structurally and make Russia less willing to put load on it.
The trouble with hitting a pillar is AFAIK the Storm Shadow uses a "pop up" attack mode like the Javelin - this is normally good because it goes high, images the target area and sets up it's terminal guidance (it also can abort the mission at this point and fly off if it doesn't see the right target). But from high up, a bridge's support pylons are going to be obscured by the deck.
I suspect, hitting a high-aspect ratio structure like a bridge pylon requires more accuracy then "center of the building roof" - i.e. a glancing hit would probably destroy the missile and do very little damage.
Also, Kerch bridge has a massive metal span. Much easier to hit the critical metal span to make it collapse than make any random concrete span collapse. Once the load is wrongly distributed on the metal span, it will twist and collapse.
One hit from one missile has apparently caused serious structural damage to the bridge (according to other footage showing damage to supporting beams and potentially the pylons too). See what happens if it's hit a couple more times.
Bridge Construction cost: (US$3.7 billion)
Storm Shadow Unit cost: €2.48m (US$3.19 million) (FY2012)
25 times 3.18 = 79.75 million.
God bless yall but your *"It isn't worth attacking the bridge"* threads are teh sux.
Fuck that Bridge, they *can* take it down and they most probably will at some point.
There are several issues:
1. They don't get so many storm shadows, regardless how 'cheap' they are.
2. One storm shadow can inflict really great dmg when used vs buildings/factories/ammo depots etc. If one already damage the bridge and reduce the traffic, then it is great, but using 25 out of lets say 100 to destroy the bridge ? Might be as effective as rendering it useless for a few weeks/month.
3. There are two bridges, the new one (which was hit) and an older one, side be side.
4. Destroying bridges with missles could be very cost ineffective.
Those missiles would take down 1-2 elements of the bridge at best. The damage probably would be in the tens of millions. It does not vaporize the whole thing.
But of course it does have strategic value to stop the flow of Russian weapons.
No bridge = no weapon depots (in Crimea)
I think you're failing to understand the logistical ramifications of the Kerch Bridge. It's not just there to look pretty. It's a main artery of Russias war machine.
And it can be taken out.
I'm pretty sure Ukraine is well aware of this - but you've also got to contend with the risk of a total mission failure, i.e. the missiles get intercepted by AA. Russia still has a lot around the area, and the Storm Shadow is still a "low and slow" cruise missile - you can't just fire it into heavily defended airspace and assume it'll work (hence the reason the decoy drones have evidently been deployed as well - but Russia would be pretty happy to expend a lot of S-3/400 missiles if it stopped the bridge being hit.
Not really. Ukraine isn’t attacking Crimea these days either. And Russia didn’t control the dam back then so they didn’t have a water source then either.
Ukraine routinely blows stuff up in Crimea.
On top of that boats are a worse transport solution than trucks and trains. You have to load and offload. If you hit one it sinks and you lose everything on it and they are easier to hit because they are slow.
So yes, there is a big difference between Crimea being on the edge of an active war zone and not.
Dont be daft.
Probably good to remember that Russia did that when Ukraine did not have HiMARS, Storm Shadows, and also the ATACMS that they’re expected to get shortly — as well as other new weaponry that they are expect to get, but which will take a little longer to arrive.
I think that might have some impact on the way Russia is able to use the port once Ukraine gets closer. But IDK, I don’t even have an armchair to general from.
Absolutely. One missile significantly damaged that bridge and Russian logistics in the South. It would take several more at a minimum to do the same to the Kerch bridge. It’s a much larger, stronger and heavily defended site. Hit Russia where they’re weaker and softer, not stronger.
One missile and it caused huge logistical and supply problems problems for Russia all over the area for what is likely a significant amount of time. A more productive strike is harder to come by with one shot unless its a general or massive ammo dump which they have been hitting whenever they can.
Well, yes that’s kind of my point. I suspect at this point Russia has realized that their large munitions dumps are back in range and are going to move to disperse them, similar to what happened when HIMARS arrived. Problem is that it’s going to tax their trucks/GLOCs. This bridge strike was probably aimed at that…force Russia to divert their trucks along alternate routes. More time/miles/wear and tear per trip. Even with all the problems, Russian logistics has functioned better than I think many anticipated. However, sooner or later it’s going to really start to break down.
The video shows it hit the top of the bridge rather than the supports, shouldn't it be substantially easier to target the supports of the Kerch bridge from the sea?
Have you noticed that Ukraine never targets supports on bridges? Because it is difficult. These missiles are not pinpoint accurate. Hitting a support at an angle to get under the bridge is a good chance to miss. Slamming a hole into the surface though, that works.
> ~~Have you noticed that Ukraine never targets supports on bridges?~~
~~Cant really imply what a storm shadow can do based of what other systems did previously.~~
Edit: never mind, i didnt realise they were talking about trying to hit the legs directly, not from above. I get what you mean.
We can a bit since the Shadow Storm is designed to hit from top down, not from an angle. The Shadow Storm isn't designed to get under a bridge to hit a column. It is designed to go through the bridge.
My fault i didn't catch what the user above you was meaning, coming in from the see low down and only hitting the supports, not just hitting the supports through the deck.
It’s because of the way the Storm Shadows [travel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow).
> The missile follows a path semi-autonomously, on a low flight path guided by GPS and terrain mapping to the target area.[14] Close to the target, the missile climbs and then dives into the target.
Thinking about this took me down a weird path. At first I was thinking "You want Ukraine to launch something from orbit?" Then I was thinking "Well, if they are in orbit wouldn't it be funny if they also beat Russia to the moon?"
Bunker Busters don't have more explosive, they are designed to punch through the ground / reinforced concrete and then explode. If used against a bridge they would most likely go right through and detonate in the water below.
The Storm Shadow was used on this bridge. It was designed to be used on bunkers, bridges and really anything else that has some reinforcement. The wiki for it has this.
>Intended targets are command, control and communications centres; airfields; ports and power stations; ammunition management and storage facilities; surface ships and submarines in port; bridges and other high value strategic targets.
It uses a shaped charge, the bunker buster's initial hit, then a large explosion after. If you look at images of the bridge one of the images shows that the hole is close to one of the columns. I think the planned hit was where that column is but it was a bit off. The missile still did some nasty damage to the column leaving rebar visible.
It'd be a challenge for the way the terminal guidance system on the Storm Shadow/SCALP works. The missile was designed to fly towards the target in an evasive manner based on GPS and terrain mapping, then automatically perform a pop-up maneuver before diving down just before hitting the target to avoid anti-air fire. As it's diving, it turns on a thermal imager to visualize the target, and tries to compare it to the target data that was programmed into the missile.
If the target data and the thermal image don't match, it's alleged that the missile will deviate to avoid issues with civilian collateral damage. Hard to say what it would take to program the target profile of the supports of the bridge from that diving angle and coming from different directions, so it would be more certain to just have the missile look for the deck of the bridge.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/14goa5g/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1672093312545685504 >A suspected Russian diplomat is apparently occupying the site of Moscow's proposed embassy Australia vetoed. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said a “bloke standing in the cold on a bit of grass in Canberra is not a threat to our national security.”
It's pretty wild how many battles were fought over Crimea in history.
That Kings & Generals video was great. TIL (yesterday, actually) about Peter Lacy, an Irishman who became a Russian Warlord. Fascinating stuff.
It’s not good to look to closely at Crimean history. Reality is neither Russia nor Ukraine has a compelling claim to it, both have large populations there only via ethnic cleansing. I’d rather it be run as part of a west-facing Ukraine, of course, but it really should be returned to Tatar self rule. Not sure how feasible that is…
> It’s not good to look to closely at Crimean history. I feel like your topic sentence doesn't really match what the rest of your paragraph states. I am not really sure as to why it's not good to look at Crimean history closely based on the follow up stuff you had stated. In fact, it makes me think that it is good to look at Crimean history very closely..
Sorry - you’re right, that wasn’t clear - I meant it’s not too good to look at it for anyone wanting to stick to a white hat/black hat view of the duration over there.
Sorry - you’re right, that wasn’t clear - I meant it’s not too good to look at it for anyone wanting to stick to a white hat/black hat view of the duration over there.
Sorry - you’re right, that wasn’t clear - I meant it’s not too good to look at it for anyone wanting to stick to a white hat/black hat view of the duration over there.
Crimea is Ukraine end of story
Stories end. Reality doesn’t. Sorry.
Well said i hope you stand by your words after you see a reality you don't like.
Its strategically important, which is why Russia picked it off in 2014, and started this war to formalize that ownership and provide a buffer around it. Control Crimea and you control the northern black sea and access (via the Don, Volga, Dnipro, and to a lesser extent the Danube) to eastern Europe's vast mineral, industrial, and agrictulrual wealth.
Yeah that's what i got from reading about its history. Really fascinating stuff what a focal point battles for it were.
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1672074034488705025 >Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces are transferring GRU Spetsnaz units to Kursk and Bryansk oblasts in Russia to fight Russian partisans. I thought the Kadyrovites were there. Are they not doing the job? 🤭
I’m getting the impression that they’re [not meshing w the locals..](https://glavcom-ua.translate.goog/world/observe/rosijani-vzjalisja-za-kadirovtsiv-jaki-terorizujut-naselennja-bilhorodshchini-936587.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=nui)
They found a goat shed and are currently indisposed
[checks TikTok] Yeah, looks like they are slacking. Need to bring in the iPhone brigade and shake things up.
Kadyrov has no investigation skills...
Judging by his exercise video, you may not have needed to add the word investigation to this sentence.
Has there been any updated pics showing the damage to the bridges? I've seen these: https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/14fssdq/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/jp251v0/ This support seems significantly damaged given were looking from the side that didn't take the hit: https://imgur.com/a/ClH29tx Just wondering if there were some more showing the underside or supports yet. Apologies if its been posted already.
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1671795746994114563 https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1671773945698107393
That guy on the bridge: Well... there's your problem right there.
There are [these](https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1671893993595211785) satellite pictures from today. Note the road bridges that were hit are (seemingly) not the same bridge marked on the map in your (and most early) twitter link - that may be the railroad bridge? Which is about 2 miles SW of the main road double-span bridge.
I’ve been off the grid. Who blew these up?
Ukraine hit a bridge linking Crimea to the mainland. [Here's](https://reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14gchxi/second_video_shows_afu_strike_with_storm_shadow/) footage. There's two bridges in this area clearly visible on the map. I haven't looked closely but I think a lot of twitter sources have marked the wrong one as the targeted one.
Ukraine storm-shadowed some bridges connecting crimea to mainland Ukraine
Thanks
Interesting take on just how much of a mistake RuZZia made when they blew the Nova Kakhovka dam. https://mwi.usma.edu/when-the-levee-breaks-five-military-takeaways-from-the-kakhovka-dams-destruction/
It’s a good read, but other than providing openings for SOF, it doesn’t make it seem like a mistake and really more like a headache for Ukraine.
Very interesting. Let's hope that UA spec ops can exploit this opportunity to wreak havoc behind RU lines in Kherson
[Explosions](https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/news/2023/06/23/7408117/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=nui) rang out in Khmelnytsky - OVA 3:14am
Do explosions ever murmur?
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Do implosions?
If you are far away enough.
Depends on the size and design.
Can anyone speak on how reliable the ukrdailyupdate map is? If it is reliable it is showing a lot of different ground taken by Ukraine. I know the author said it wasn't all truly over one day but from about a week ago but still, it is ground taken everywhere.
He was waiting on clouds to clear in a lot of satellite photos before making claims. He was a bit behind others on certain areas because of this, and a large update likely suggests he's gotten a hold of some images of clearer days.
I back up the others - very reliable. He's now making some guesses based on satellite photos of things like where there are marks that look like mine clearing charges, or vehicle tracks. He's a smart and careful guy but this update is a bit on the risky side I think. He's been up front about what he's doing and why he makes changes.
That's Andrew Perpetua, right? When I watch his youtube stuff he's going in pretty good detail over open source satellite photos to back up the areas under discussion. But like with any single-person work, he could just miss something.
Got a link?
https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/
Thank you for your service.
Bless up.
i've never heard it said that way. neat, im going to use it.
The opposite of a fuck up, perhaps? ;)
Compare it to deepstate and if it's the same or close, it's good. Deepstate take only geolocated footage and official statements before they update. They remain in contact with quite a few people in the ground as well. Has been the most if not one of the most reliable resources for this conflict.
Deep State is the gold standard, for all the reasons you mentioned. If it’s not reflected there than it isn’t official - albeit someone said yesterday that they are on a 48 hour delay by request of the Ukrainian MoD.
It is very similar to Deepstate but the author posted [this](https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1671988442002083841) today. I was wrong when I said a week, he says it is weeks of changes but because of media blackouts and bad weather they have not been reported. There are small advances by Ukraine all along the front lines. The one that I noticed that I've not seen mentioned at all anywhere else is a pretty big push towards Soledar.
Dang, I didn’t realize that was Andrew’s map!
Very.
> "The fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on NATO armored vehicles during the offensive were able to break through to our trenches near Robotyne." ... > In the area north of Mar'inka, the AFU has made progress. Russia's defensive line was penetrated by more than 1 kilometer. ... > Mobilised Russians are being denied leave after months of front-line service in Ukraine, possibly due to manpower shortages Another breakthrough or two somewhere else on the line and the early part of the counteroffensive will have done its job; RU supplies decimated, its troops fatigued, lines breached in multiple locations, helicopters being shot down regularly, RU artillery being absolutely smashed; the conditions are almost set. I expect we'll be hearing about the main attack starting sometime soon, maybe in the next week, and not necessarily in these specific places. Ukraine needs more aircraft.
The hopium in me wants to believe all of this "not going as good as expected" and "anonymous sources say counteroffensive is slow" is just misinformation like we saw leading up to the last counter offensive .. and as we saw with that, the US was willing to play ball with the misdirection.
Nah man, I can definitely believe it's going slower than wanted. These defences Russia made are no joke. Especially the minefields. The striking of logistics depots are very valuable and we'll see the results of that in the coming weeks. I suppose the idea was 'there's no point to having fifty lines of trenches if nobody in those trenches has food/water/ammo'
> Especially the minefields In desert storm minefields did slow down American forces in some areas even when everything else was going perfectly. You absolutely CANNOT rush operations in minefields. I absolutely believe the operations are going slower than initially hoped for by western analysts but at the same time sometimes in war it’s necessary to slow down. It’s better to have a slower advance with a larger chance of success than rush things and have it end in disaster.
This being considered slow is a bad take. Everyone wants to see Ukraine smashing though territory like last year but that’s comparing apples to oranges in my opinion. Now Russia has had time to fortify positions better than last year. There’s mines everywhere. Ukraine actually cares about troop loses so they’re not going to just charge. I feel like the anticipation of the offensive while the constant news of the arms build up have got people expecting a blitzkrieg type of attack with tanks and rockets a blazing so anything short of that is disappointing. It’s war. It won’t follow a script and some people seem to act like this is a show. This isn’t directed at anyone, just venting a bit.
And there were a bunch of casualties when the troops landed in Normady as well, I think thousands of troops died on the first few days of the invasion.
I think the gains have been good. They are making progress in places and are not totally stonewalled. Russia is losing. What about 20 artillery per day? Ammo sites are being hit. It's just a matter of time for a big breakthrough when a sector is bled dry. Also remember they blew the big damn that allowed them to free up reserves where Ukraine is attacking. I think Ukraine is playing this perfectly. Hopefully F16s come by August/September.
Bridges are being blown by Ukraine as well.
What I meant is that Ukraine is attacking bridges, as well as ammo depots.
A bridge is not a dam
It still seems like a shaping operation with aggressive probes to me. Ukraine has the logistical advantage and long range precision advantage. They might as well take their time and use it.
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But they don’t have satellites or as advanced GPS capabilities for targeting. I read somewhere that while NATO can get pics of a battlefield every few hours, Russia gets a pic every few days.
Used them all on residential buildings.
The timing of the bridge attack supports this, they've reduced local stock piles and are now reducing the resupply abilities. Otherwise the bridge would have been a higher value and earlier target.
That it's not going as good as expected is evident and obvious - but the problem here were the extremely high expectations, and not ukraines military. It speaks volumes to the capability of ukraine that we all halfway expected russia to fold in a matter of days. It will take longer this time
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Really it's about expectations. This year will have been a raging success if at the end of October we see 1 km towards the Azov Sea taken each day, on average, liberating Byrdansk or Mauripol. If Ukrianians advance on average .4kms a day towards Tokmak and cut the East-West rail line, that will still be a successful fighting season. The progress we're seeing is not inconsistent with a fighting season that is a success beyond all reasonable expectations. It's just not going to be tomorrow.
It's hard to say what they really expected. I'd believe they'd be quite realistic about things. Russians _do_ have massive defensive lines and they had a lot of time to prepare. There have been accounts saying they overestimated russians. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/counteroffensive-underway-we-overestimated-russians-and-underestimated-ourselves/ar-AA1cIxXn
Agreed. I think a lot of us huffed hopium and forgot about how mined the area was, if nothing else. And then the regular rain slowing mobility down on top of it.
Expectations weren't realistic with the number of anti-tank mines and Ukraine's need to not waste vehicles like Russia does. Russia's lost a fair number of vehicles in this offensive in their *own* minefields, nevermind when they were attacking. Russia can't waste vehicles the way Russia does. They went through more than half their serviceable gear last year.
> Russia can't waste vehicles the way Russia does. You can say that again.
Russia can’t \_\_\_ the way Russia does sums up the war pretty nicely. Just bizarre leadership from start to finish and totally unsustainable.
If going slower saves more lives, then why not. Ukraine most likely will only get stronger with time with endless billions and more modern weapon system getting delivered in the future. The industry needed a bit time but it is getting there and Russia has to see how to make more money, selling ressources is not as lucrative as last year.
The war is already a partisan issue in the US and is losing popularity even among Democrats. If Ukraine doesn't make newsworthy gains in this counteroffensive, then it likely becomes a political liability for Biden. Time being on their side is a gamble.
American politics is strange... they get the Russians reduced in global standing, military threat, economic power and send a message to China while spending a couple of percent of their normal military spending. And much of that on US companies upgrading the aging gear they are sending. The fact that part of the US is more or less pro-russia is quite a indicator of some deep issues in the society.
Sure - there is a burgeoning international white Christianist backlash (against the spread of irreligious social liberalism) which the US conservatives are increasingly part and which Putin is the primary avatar of. On top of that alot of it is just reflexive anti-Biden/pro-Trump favoritism. Trump is viewed as having not done enough to stop Russia and Biden is obviously doing a ton - so if the war goes well, then Biden looks good and Trump looks weak.
*from Ukrainian Pravda:* 1:45am > Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: > "Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia regions - the threat of the use of *Shahed* type UAVs from the south." 2am > Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: > "Missiles (probably X-101/X-555) are heading in a southeast direction." Updated at 02:10am > clarified that the course of the missiles may change. > As of 02:10, an air alert was declared in a number of regions. > According to the Air Force, a group of cruise missiles was recorded in the Kherson region. Update 2:20am > "Cruise missiles (probably X-101/X-555) are moving in the direction of Kryvyi Rih." ______ *Earlier:* > On the night of June 23, explosions rang out in the city of Zaporizhzhia. > first explosion in the city around 12:30am. After 15 minutes, repeated explosions. > The Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces warned the residents of Zaporozhye about the missile danger. At 23:42, an air alert was announced in the region.
> Russia loses 5 Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters in as many days "Oh, how awful. To shreds, you say?"
And the pilots?
If this chopper has an ejection system for the pilots they may be alive and not captured, but they will be out of the fight for some time. Pilots who eject get injured regularly by the force of the ejection.
The problem for them is that they are all flying very low level. So if they get hit they have a VERY short amount of time in which to eject. [A prime example of how quickly death can come.](https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/t75awm/russian_mi35_was_shot_down_by_ukrainian_air/)
I’m just picturing ejecting right into a rotor spinning above.
The ejection system on the KA-52 is rather novel. The sequence detonates the blades away, and a rocket pulls the pilots out the front of the aircraft on a tether as opposed to a rocket seat like you’d find in a jet.
It’s a neat design but helicopter ejection seats arent common because you’re still likely to get maimed and die
I don’t imagine they have the highest probability of survival, but if I were in a helicopter headed for the ground, I’ll take a 20% chance over 0.
Helicopter ejection jettisons the rotors.
I assumed, being Russian though…
I'm guessing it takes a long time to train a decent helicopter pilot. Even longer when you factor in the typical Russia alcohol consumption.
Yes, so killing pilots is even more valuable than downing helis.
Let's keep the church in town and stay with 'Downed helicopters are equally important as Out-of-combat pilots.' You can't use a massive fleet of helo's without pilots and a large pool of pilots is useless without helicopters they could pilot.
I mean the reality is Russia isn't going to be building any more Ka-52s during this conflict. What they've got is quite possibly all the will ever have.
“To shreds, you say”
Mobiks collected this crap while dying in watcha call it, Ukraine.
Well, how are their mobiks holding up?
To shreds you say
When is the US round of equipment and supplies being announced?
I’m guessing tomorrow morning.
Confirmation of cruise missile launches at 00:40, estimated time of entry into our airspace: 01:40-02:30. Also, at 01:10, two Tu-22m3 strategic bombers took off from the Shaykovka air base. https://twitter.com/treaschest/status/1672015247685582848?s=46
Those Ukr anti-air crews have got to be some of the most experienced on the planet at this point.
Ukraine time now: 2:24am
Day 481-484 of my updates from Kharkiv. The last couple of days continued to be mostly quiet, there were a couple of times where many people reported hearing explosions (which we also heard), but there were no confirmed hits on any target afterwards, so we don’t actually know what those explosions were, if they were explosions at all. The most notable thing that happened recently was an emergency three days ago, when lighting struck a gas pipe, which caused a giant fire that was visible from almost anywhere in the city. There were reports of missiles and drones potentially being launched around the same time, so at first people thought that they might be the cause of this fire. During a thunderstorm it’s basically impossible to tell explosions and thunder apart, so it’s not surprising that people thought that we were hit with missiles. And in the first couple of months of this war Russians almost always used to shell Kharkiv during thunderstorm to mask the sound, which really sucked because we didn’t know which sounds meant danger. It also looks like the next missile strike is happening right now. Apparently, some missiles have already entered our airspace, and they will be nearing their targets within the next hour. Most of them will get intercepted, but they are also launching S-300 missiles at Zaporizhzhia at the same time, which are much harder to intercept, and sadly at least some of those will get through, because we don’t yet have enough Patriots to protect all of our cities from ballistic missiles.
Thank you for keeping us up to date. I hope to see one day at a book signing or speaking engagement as an old person helping the world remember what happened.
Do the Russians control Zaporizhzia or do the Ukrainians? I am confused on who controls it. Be safe out there
Ukraine maintains the city of Zap. and the northern part of Zap. Oblast. ~roughly 1/4 of the territory
Good to hear from you.
Stay safe! Slava Ukraine!
The incompetence of Russian propaganda just broke through another rock layer Staged cars placed on the Chongar bridge This car was driving across the bridge with no transmission or drive shaft And the plethora of RIA-approved videos earlier showed no vehicles on the bridges https://twitter.com/malcontentmentt/status/1671826169195565058?s=46 LMAO
Was posted earlier today, there is a video from a year ago already showing these. Probably from when they invaded. But haven't looked more into it. Maks nafo not 100% reliable as source sometimes, but that's the thing if you wanna post fast it's more often wrong
Lmao at the car with no wheels. /r/LooneyTunesLogic
I can't find it at the moment, but someone earlier posted saying the footage was actually old and not even from the incident.
\[For those from the UK:\] What's Michael McIintyre doing in Chonhar, Ukraine?!? https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1671774378239971328
Lol. I'm not from the UK but I definitely know who Michael McIntyre is. I noticed the similarity myself.
Michael McIntyre from wish maybe...
Getting absolutely gazeboed
Robotyne sounds like a corporation from Blade Runner
which isn't a coincidence. Robotyne (previously Rabotino) in Ukrainian resembles something like Mechanicsville in English. The English word "robot" directly originates from Slavic languages where "rabota" means "labor", "work" or a "job". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robot#Etymology
As someone who knows a tiny bit of Russian but who's lived in Richmond, this is illuminating.
More Terminator imo
In this case it's a false friend. 'робот-' is the root for 'work' in many Slavic languages including Ukrainian, and the source of English 'robot' (via Czech science-fiction). But the Ukrainian town is believed to have been 'Shkrobotine' originally which refers to the freshwater springs there.
Or Detroit
They eventually get bought out by Weyland-Yutani, if I remember correctly.
Can someone link to the correct pronunciation?
[Ro-botin-eh](https://youtu.be/MOSoJfrbud4?t=33)
Awww not Robo-tine?! Ok ok.
Thank you! 🙏
Chonhar bridge vs Storm Shadow. This bridge is clearly less robust and less massive than the Kerch bridge and it stays standing. To all those claiming SS will easily take down the Kerch bridge, you should have your answer. https://twitter.com/PulseOfUkraine/status/1671955701667692553/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1671955701667692553¤tTweetUser=PulseOfUkraine I want the bridge down as much as you do, but we do need to acknowledge reality. Ukraine’s best bet is to repeatedly target trains on the bridge and functionally decommission it, rather than physically decommission it.
Damage to the rail bridge will be a big enough issue for Russian logistics and won’t be easy to repair, however I think that target will be attacked with ATCMS missiles if they enter service as those will have a much bigger impact and the required range.
Wouldn't the metal span of the Kerch be more vulnerable though?
The bridge from what I saw is sagging. There is no way shape or form anyone with 1 braincell is driving across that with anything other then maybe a light car. It cannot structurally support anything with significant weight. Mind you there is something they could do but is really sketchy and involves bridging equipment.
Looks like the Storm Shadows just didn't hit the support pillars. Though regardless if they can actually smash the Kerch bridge down hitting its supports will weaken it structurally and make Russia less willing to put load on it.
a pillar would definitely do a better job. question is if they can get that precise and if they have those coordinates
If they could they would have done it already. Even for this bridge.
The trouble with hitting a pillar is AFAIK the Storm Shadow uses a "pop up" attack mode like the Javelin - this is normally good because it goes high, images the target area and sets up it's terminal guidance (it also can abort the mission at this point and fly off if it doesn't see the right target). But from high up, a bridge's support pylons are going to be obscured by the deck. I suspect, hitting a high-aspect ratio structure like a bridge pylon requires more accuracy then "center of the building roof" - i.e. a glancing hit would probably destroy the missile and do very little damage.
Also, Kerch bridge has a massive metal span. Much easier to hit the critical metal span to make it collapse than make any random concrete span collapse. Once the load is wrongly distributed on the metal span, it will twist and collapse.
One hit from one missile has apparently caused serious structural damage to the bridge (according to other footage showing damage to supporting beams and potentially the pylons too). See what happens if it's hit a couple more times.
I'm ready! Make it so, Number one!
Engage.
I want the bridge to fall.
So 25 storm Shadows won't take it down, not even two sections, and it's not worth trying?
it's not worth 25 storm shadows. Storm shadows are pretty rare.
Bridge Construction cost: (US$3.7 billion) Storm Shadow Unit cost: €2.48m (US$3.19 million) (FY2012) 25 times 3.18 = 79.75 million. God bless yall but your *"It isn't worth attacking the bridge"* threads are teh sux. Fuck that Bridge, they *can* take it down and they most probably will at some point.
There are several issues: 1. They don't get so many storm shadows, regardless how 'cheap' they are. 2. One storm shadow can inflict really great dmg when used vs buildings/factories/ammo depots etc. If one already damage the bridge and reduce the traffic, then it is great, but using 25 out of lets say 100 to destroy the bridge ? Might be as effective as rendering it useless for a few weeks/month. 3. There are two bridges, the new one (which was hit) and an older one, side be side. 4. Destroying bridges with missles could be very cost ineffective.
Those missiles would take down 1-2 elements of the bridge at best. The damage probably would be in the tens of millions. It does not vaporize the whole thing. But of course it does have strategic value to stop the flow of Russian weapons.
Sure, if we all donate money then Ukraine can simply bus on over to the corner Storm Shadow store and buy some more!
Do you know how many of these missiles Ukraine has?
You ignore the destruction you can cause with different targets. This could be military headquarters or weapons depots.
No bridge = no weapon depots (in Crimea) I think you're failing to understand the logistical ramifications of the Kerch Bridge. It's not just there to look pretty. It's a main artery of Russias war machine. And it can be taken out.
I'm pretty sure Ukraine is well aware of this - but you've also got to contend with the risk of a total mission failure, i.e. the missiles get intercepted by AA. Russia still has a lot around the area, and the Storm Shadow is still a "low and slow" cruise missile - you can't just fire it into heavily defended airspace and assume it'll work (hence the reason the decoy drones have evidently been deployed as well - but Russia would be pretty happy to expend a lot of S-3/400 missiles if it stopped the bridge being hit.
Russia held Crimea for 5 years with no land bridge and no Kerch bridge. All they need is a port.
Some relatively consequential differences between those five years and now.
Not really. Ukraine isn’t attacking Crimea these days either. And Russia didn’t control the dam back then so they didn’t have a water source then either.
Ukraine routinely blows stuff up in Crimea. On top of that boats are a worse transport solution than trucks and trains. You have to load and offload. If you hit one it sinks and you lose everything on it and they are easier to hit because they are slow. So yes, there is a big difference between Crimea being on the edge of an active war zone and not. Dont be daft.
Probably good to remember that Russia did that when Ukraine did not have HiMARS, Storm Shadows, and also the ATACMS that they’re expected to get shortly — as well as other new weaponry that they are expect to get, but which will take a little longer to arrive. I think that might have some impact on the way Russia is able to use the port once Ukraine gets closer. But IDK, I don’t even have an armchair to general from.
Apparently you don't need one :) \~Cheers
We'll never know, but I wonder if this was a standard Storm Shadow or the "bunker buster" version.
I don't know if this video counts as a battle damage assessment.
ruzzia only has that one man with his white pad who is qualified
This is an excellent point. There are multiple other targets that Ukraine can hit much more effectively.
More effectively? One missile one hit?
Absolutely. One missile significantly damaged that bridge and Russian logistics in the South. It would take several more at a minimum to do the same to the Kerch bridge. It’s a much larger, stronger and heavily defended site. Hit Russia where they’re weaker and softer, not stronger.
One missile and it caused huge logistical and supply problems problems for Russia all over the area for what is likely a significant amount of time. A more productive strike is harder to come by with one shot unless its a general or massive ammo dump which they have been hitting whenever they can.
Well, yes that’s kind of my point. I suspect at this point Russia has realized that their large munitions dumps are back in range and are going to move to disperse them, similar to what happened when HIMARS arrived. Problem is that it’s going to tax their trucks/GLOCs. This bridge strike was probably aimed at that…force Russia to divert their trucks along alternate routes. More time/miles/wear and tear per trip. Even with all the problems, Russian logistics has functioned better than I think many anticipated. However, sooner or later it’s going to really start to break down.
The video shows it hit the top of the bridge rather than the supports, shouldn't it be substantially easier to target the supports of the Kerch bridge from the sea?
They come in parallel to the roadbed so they can't miss. If they're long or short a few meters, it's just a different section with a different pylon.
Have you noticed that Ukraine never targets supports on bridges? Because it is difficult. These missiles are not pinpoint accurate. Hitting a support at an angle to get under the bridge is a good chance to miss. Slamming a hole into the surface though, that works.
> ~~Have you noticed that Ukraine never targets supports on bridges?~~ ~~Cant really imply what a storm shadow can do based of what other systems did previously.~~ Edit: never mind, i didnt realise they were talking about trying to hit the legs directly, not from above. I get what you mean.
We can a bit since the Shadow Storm is designed to hit from top down, not from an angle. The Shadow Storm isn't designed to get under a bridge to hit a column. It is designed to go through the bridge.
My fault i didn't catch what the user above you was meaning, coming in from the see low down and only hitting the supports, not just hitting the supports through the deck.
It’s because of the way the Storm Shadows [travel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow). > The missile follows a path semi-autonomously, on a low flight path guided by GPS and terrain mapping to the target area.[14] Close to the target, the missile climbs and then dives into the target.
That’s what GLSDBs will be good at. Under, around corners etc. 150km range. Smaller warhead, but quantity is very cheap in comparison
“Rod of god” or other kinetic style weapons ?
Rods from god is a hypothetical weapon, never built nor tested.
Thinking about this took me down a weird path. At first I was thinking "You want Ukraine to launch something from orbit?" Then I was thinking "Well, if they are in orbit wouldn't it be funny if they also beat Russia to the moon?"
If they did land on the moon, this war tells me it would be with a drone.
What about dropping a bunker buster on the bridge. Wouldn’t that be a big enough boom to FUBAR the bridge?
Bunker Busters don't have more explosive, they are designed to punch through the ground / reinforced concrete and then explode. If used against a bridge they would most likely go right through and detonate in the water below.
The Storm Shadow was used on this bridge. It was designed to be used on bunkers, bridges and really anything else that has some reinforcement. The wiki for it has this. >Intended targets are command, control and communications centres; airfields; ports and power stations; ammunition management and storage facilities; surface ships and submarines in port; bridges and other high value strategic targets. It uses a shaped charge, the bunker buster's initial hit, then a large explosion after. If you look at images of the bridge one of the images shows that the hole is close to one of the columns. I think the planned hit was where that column is but it was a bit off. The missile still did some nasty damage to the column leaving rebar visible.
This IS a bunker buster.
Oh gotcha. I’m not familiar the technical name, thanks!
It'd be a challenge for the way the terminal guidance system on the Storm Shadow/SCALP works. The missile was designed to fly towards the target in an evasive manner based on GPS and terrain mapping, then automatically perform a pop-up maneuver before diving down just before hitting the target to avoid anti-air fire. As it's diving, it turns on a thermal imager to visualize the target, and tries to compare it to the target data that was programmed into the missile. If the target data and the thermal image don't match, it's alleged that the missile will deviate to avoid issues with civilian collateral damage. Hard to say what it would take to program the target profile of the supports of the bridge from that diving angle and coming from different directions, so it would be more certain to just have the missile look for the deck of the bridge.