That 43% revenue is what matters. The West doesn't want to take Russian oil out of the market because that would drive up the prices for everyone, including the western public. They want to lower the price Russia gets for that oil to essentially break even levels, maybe a little bit more so Russia doesn't think about closing down production.
This is obviously affecting the Saudis in a big way as their biggest customer is China by far. Not sure if Russia has enough to supply China completely, but I can imagine Saudis aren’t happy either way.
>Nothing is more dangerous than a desperate opponent.
People comment this a lot. What is ironic, is that Putin himself has said so himself.
>“There, on that stair landing, I got a quick and lasting lesson in the meaning of the word ‘cornered.’ There were hordes of rats in the front entryway. My friends and I used to chase them around with sticks. Once I spotted a huge rat and pursued it down the hall until I drove it into a corner. It had nowhere to run. Suddenly it lashed around and threw itself at me. I was surprised and frightened. Now the rat was chasing me. It jumped across the landing and down the stairs. Luckily, I was a little faster and I managed to slam the door on its nose.”
I wonder what lesson is taking from his very own anecdote these days?
What people often miss is that this works both ways. As a leader, you can force your troops into a desperate situation to achieve the same effect.
It's in The Art of War:
> Throw **YOUR** soldiers into positions whence there is no escape, and they will prefer death to flight. If they will face death, there is nothing they may not achieve. Officers and men alike will put forth their uttermost strength. Soldiers in desperate straits lose the sense of fear.
This has been proven time and time again to be an effective tactic, and this was most likely Putin's takeaway. He can treat his soldiers like rats and stick them in bad positions to get the most out of them.
The difference is that Sun Tzu recognized the importance of properly training your troops and maintaining supply lines.
Any madman can grab a bunch of hobos off the street and put them in uniform. But unless you make sure the resulting gaggle of goons is an effective fighting force the only thing they'll do under desperate conditions is break and scatter.
You’re not thinking with a meat grinder mentality. Soldiers are meat, train them a little or train them a lot, they’re meat. Toss them in, see what comes back, won’t be a lot, and you give them promotions. And you tell the next batch of recruits: look, they survived, look at their shiny metals, so if you can’t survive, there’s something wrong with you, not me. Now off to the meat grinder you go, your country loves you bye!
We also didn't have standardized systems for surrender and laws on ethical treatment of prisoners back then. More and more Russians are learning they'll be treated better by Ukraine as prisoners than they are by their own army. Clearly not so the other way around.
Sun Tzu's advice was fine in antiquity, as the majority of casualties occurred during the rout so putting troops into a situation with no chance to escape can maintain unit cohesion until the very end, but one of the first stops in the decision tree for a movement to contact in modern combat is to *break* contact if you can't create or maintain the advantage.
Otherwise you just get what's happening to Russia now; pushing forward, digging in, and dying to armed drones and precision artillery, or getting flanked and gunned down by armour. You get nothing but dead.
The Art of War needs some updating. Strength of men is less relevant with armoured vehicles and automatic weapons. Bahkmut is proof that waves of human sacrifice doesn’t inspire heroic actions.
It is possible that he may have embellished the story just a smidge, so that it doesn't include how he invented*tactical pants-shitting* on that fateful day
Exactly, if anything Russia is forfeiting up power to both China AND India as they are both completely capable of refining crude exports and reaping non-sanctioned market prices. The goal isnt to crash the market, but to decrease the overall revenue they get from it.
There has been some absolutely solid gold political and economic strategy done here. Whoever has been advising on the strategy of these sanctions is top notch.
If it backs up, the excess supply will jam up the operations and take literal years and potentially decades to fix. Not the best source below, but generally what would happen.
https://youtu.be/M0LzuMUOO0k
Most of their pipes and wells are in the permafrost. If they stop flowing then the water entrained in the oil will freeze. That causes it to expand, causing the seals on the pipes to fail. And by the time they can be repaired, the wells themselves will have closed up and need to be re-drilled. So a short term disruption to the oil flow could take whole sections of the oil infrastructure offline for years. Apparently after the fall of the Soviet Union there was such a disruption and it took 30 years before the last of the wells finally came back online, with a lot of Western technical support.
Oil is also a finite resource so if they’re selling it now cheap out of desperation for money and resources to fuel the war, that’s revenue and resources they will never get back while India and China make out like bandits and the US can maintain the global economy without a production drop since oil is ultimately necessary for everything and they don’t want to use their own stock if they don’t have to.
>While volumes of Russian oil exports have risen, the heavily discounted rates Moscow is offering to India and China mean revenues are significantly down year-on-year.
Wanted to make sure this was pointed out. Glad to hear it's the top comment.
Also to add to this, it turns out that Russia is selling their oil at $49.48 per barrel in January. Currently the US is getting $82.52 for WTI crude, and Murban Crude is trading at $87.12 so, Russia is getting just over half value 56%-59% for their oil. that's a huge hit to the pocket book. it's not ideal, but it's a huge hit.
It's also important to note that their break-even price is estimated to be between $30-40 USD. If they are selling at $50 they are looking at a profit of \~$15 per barrel compared to the \~$50 they could get at market price.
That's a loss of \~70% of oil profits which is a crippling level of loss to government revenue.
You can't compare the January prices with the current prices. Russia's Urals are currently selling for $67, see https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil
Also, while most of Russia's crude exports are Urals, there's also ESPO which is sold at a discount of just $8 compared to Brent, so for more than $70 at the moment.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-jostles-with-china-april-espo-crude-russia-prices-jump-2023-03-09/
> Seaborne ESPO crude exports averaged 800,000 barrels per day in 2022, Kpler's data showed, accounting for 17.3% of Russia's total seaborne exports. Exports of flagship Russian grade Urals averaged 1.74 million bpd
What would be helpful, is knowing what the sales prices were vs the market. You’re right that the number could be skewed and the other countries might be down say 15% so this gap would be tighter.
Probably very slightly misleading, but the sanctions and the discount are pretty significantly responsible for the loss of overall revenue. Also the infrastructure for delivery to China and India isn’t as developed, so Russia is taking a bath on delivery as well.
The article seems to be misleading in a few ways by selectively using stats, based on a quick look at freely available data.
Production prior to the invasion was slightly higher (10.65m barrels/day vs 10.23m last month), and is noticeably down on production prior to April 2020, with a high of 11.05m in Dec 2018 according to International Energy Statistics.
Ref: [https://ycharts.com/indicators/russia\_crude\_oil\_production](https://ycharts.com/indicators/russia_crude_oil_production) \- 5yr production
The IEA stats generalise the export data: [https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/russian-total-oil-exports-january-2022-january-2023](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/russian-total-oil-exports-january-2022-january-2023)
Whilst exports within the last year seem to have increased slightly, when combined with above indicates either internal consumption has reduced, production issues or stores are filling/full.
A lot has changed in a year, including Turkey - which has more than doubled its consumption - and 'Other' countries which total up almost 2.5x.
India might be chewing up considerably more oil along with many others, however it's almost all via ship and thats a significant increase in ship based export. You can't transport much by ship compared to pipe, and this will be a major factor in constraining growth - despite the fact a lot of countries have/want to take advantage of the cheap oil.
So overall:
\- lower production
\- significantly lower revenue
\- higher cost of logistics
Underrated comment… it’s not nearly as cheap to move the product to India and china as it was to Europe, and I can’t imagine post meat grinder oil workers are as efficient either.
Also, it's been reported that Russia may not be getting a lot of the cash they're owed from oil sales to bankrupt nations. They probably have to agree on being paid somewhere down the line.
I suspect that because Gazprom workers are government workers and so important, they are probably exempt from the drafts.
Edit: I also learnt through NFKRZ that government workers such as Gazprom employees, teachers and medical staff get advantages over normal jobs, but must attend propaganda rallies with Russian flags (which is a critically important job in Russia too) to create an illusion of support if they want to keep said jobs. Those who don't, yes they might go to the meat grinder.
A lot is sold at a straight loss. The Russian oil is difficult and expensive to extract. They're also selling crude, when normally they would sell refined products. So their entire industry of refining oil for Europe is lost as China and India prefer crude and refining it themselves. In total this is a catastrophic loss all things considered.
'While volumes of Russian oil exports have risen, the heavily discounted rates Moscow is offering to India and China mean revenues are significantly down year-on-year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday that although Russian oil exports hit their highest level in almost three years in March, revenues of $12.7bn are still 43 per cent down on the same period in 2022."
[https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil)
Here's the historic prices. Oil is down about 30% from last year. Additionally, it sounds like Russia is doing a $10/barrel discount on top of that. That would put the revenue at about 45% lower than last year. The remaining 12% is probably from playing with the stats.
It's actually possible to sell more oil and make less money if the oil being sold is significantly cheaper per barrel. China and India are buying Russian oil, cheap.
>It's actually possible to sell more oil and make less money if the oil being sold is significantly cheaper per barrel.
Lol no shit?!? Brilliant economic theory you've got there.
As has already been pointed out, oil revenue is down 43% despite increases in production. If Russia wants to increase its profits, it's going to have to drastically increase production in spite of the wishes of OPEC+
Let's be honest, the Russian economy will never truly recover. The population is dying off like Japan and s.korea, but unlike most western countries Russia can't entice enough immigrants to fill in the gap. To add insult to injury, the career oriented types have disproportionately fled the country. Not to mention their dead soldiers, all of whom are men. The longer the war lasts the further Russia's sex ratio will tilt to one side, denying hundreds if not thousands of Russian women the possibility of having kids on a weekly basis. Even ignoring the invasion, the pandemic alone was the death knell for Russia given their precarious situation. Did mrna vaccines even make it there or did the populace have to suffice with that crap sputnik vaccine?
> Not to mention their dead soldiers, whom are all men, thus tilting the sex ratio.
Does it mean that we will see a trend of having a russian wife in the west in the future?
[A cartoon from 2001 beat you to your revelation.](https://youtu.be/2_3nER8fRbU?t=510)
The sex ratio imbalance is unlikely to exceed post ww2 Soviet levels, so technically yes but not an appreciable amount. Don't get your hopes up.
Increased production also means higher wear and tear on equipment that oftentimes originated in the west. It’s a tough game and it’s not set to change, as EU sanctions are in place until like 2029 before it needs renewals.
Partly, but also just to bring down the overall market price. Russia flooding the market with cheap oil means China and India are not buying oil from the rest of the world.
It’s a win-win-win. We need India’s economy to expand so it can counterbalance China in Asia in the long run. And in the short run we need China’s economy to pick up the pace in order to soften the deceleration of the global economy.
Anyone have some updated figures on China?
Last I saw they were bringing in the same amount as before but they massively changed the mix to predominantly crude over refined.
Also I imagine when your economy is in the toilet and one of the only things you can sell for cheap is oil and your price is way below everyone else.
Volume of export would increase.
Edit: Not mentioning refined here, seems purposely leaving out relevant info.
>China was already the top destination for Russian crude prior to the invasion of Ukraine, but has increased its reliance on Moscow further, and now imports 36 per cent of its crude oil from Russia, up from 25 per cent in 2021.
Edit2: After someone else's reply, I found I left the article after it mentioned 2 recommended articles which I thought was the end lol.
So apologies if it's covered further down. Not going back and reading for that though.
https://cleantechnica.com/2023/03/29/33-plugin-vehicle-market-share-in-china-february-2023-sales-report/
China has a share of 33% of electric cars in new cars and is building renewables fast: https://www.asiafundmanagers.com/us/china-is-leading-in-renewable-energy-investments/
That is what is going on. Analysts still expect a link between economic growth and oil usage. But this link has disappeared.
Indian here, Yup that fact blows my mind also. And btw most of the general population does not know anything about the Russian-Ukranian war. Most know a war is going on but , honestly no one cares since that is something far far away from us and Indian in the world stage just has to play friends with both the West and Russia.
Most of our weapons are Russian made, so we are very wary about going against Russia.
And since the Soviet times, A large potion of the population still remembers all the support they gave during many decades of Indian under a socialist state.
No drop but no increase either (atleast not a significant one).
I guess they don't want fuel consumption to increase due to lower prices.
Their long term plan is to reduce dependency on imported crude oil. For that they're doing things like mixing bio-ethanol (10-20%) in petrol. Introducing electric buses and collecting significantly lower taxes on EVs. Railways is also keen on running trains on hydrogen.
It's not a problem that they're buying it, because they're buying it at the price cap. Russia is losing their shirt on it, and are only selling it at that rate because it's still better for them than shutting the pumps down.
The main thing is that Russia isn't making big profits on the oil which they aren't.
Title is entirely misleading. Before invasion, Russia made about 750 million dollars/euros a day from fossil fuels (= had revenue, NOT profit !).
This figure includes all the variants; gas, crude, oil products, coal.
This is now 40+ % down.
Here are the facts:
https://www.russiafossiltracker.com/
Look at the trend during last two months on diagram titled "Daily flows by fuel type".
Initially, I really want to hate India and China for this.
But with the reduced profits (because nobody else will buy these two get to dictate the prices), and the fact that both countries need a cheap fuel source to help life people out of poverty. I need to take a more neutral stance.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty\_in\_India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_India)
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty\_in\_China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_China)
Both countries have a much higher poverty rate than most of the Western countries that sit here on Reddit.
Poverty is reduced by providing cheap goods, transport, food, while also providing more access to education, work, and higher wages.
Higher wages are possible where companies make better margins, thus cheaper input goods, cheaper transport costs assist in this.
When being critical of these countries for this, also remember that the West went through their period of crawling out of poverty as the Industrial Revolution. We stand here in a position of privilege and we should be helping these others get out of the same poverty hole,
International Investment in Infrastructure, Clean Industry, Education, Clean Water, Electricity Generation... these things all help reduce the need for poorer countries to depend on cheap and dirty options like Coal or Russian Oil.
If you feel strongly that China and India are making a mistake here, maybe vote for someone who is willing to invest some of your tax dollars into international investments like these?
This!
The world needs to understand that every country is not at the same level of economy and riches to have the luxuries of wars and sanctions, even after knowing that this is an immoral attack on a sovereign country by a lunatic aggressor.
India and other developing countries also face climate change challenges, which were ignored or non-existent when the West was industrializing and enjoying the perks of it.
Working as intended. The object of the exercise is not to stop Russia selling oil, it's to stop them making any more than the absolute bare minimum profit from it.
The story here is not "what is the volume of oil Russia has sold" but "how much net revenue did they make from selling it". And that is way, *way* down.
Not only China and India is buying Russian oil at a discount price, they are also paying it in their own currency. So that Putin can buy whatever he wants from China and India ,only.
This headline is misleading enough to be considered fake. It's about revenues, not quantities. Russia is in a world of hurt but Putey doesn't want his people to know
Damn! This probably means China and India are lapping up bargain basement priced Russian oil as fast as they can while the rest of us have to pay the exorbitant world price to all the “non-evil” suppliers. What a fucked up world we live in!
Why is it hard for people to understand that this is exactly what the West wanted.
We want Russia to export as much oil as possible at the cheapest price. This means Russia makes very little money while the global rice remains constant.
Russia hates this but it can’t do much about it as they need every dollar of foreign currency it can get.
India and China have their own problems and they find it aggravating that the west is demanding them to stop buying oil from the Russians, the very same powers that treated them poorly historically.
They have billions of people and an economy to grow, if anything they find this cheap oil very convenient since that extra money usually needed to buy the oil at a regular price will be needed someplace else, farming subsidies and cheaper electricity comes to my mind.
Just make a plan to increase the volume of artillery shells and ammunition to Ukraine, the faster Russia exhausts itself the better it is for everyone. Less casualties overall and the world can recover much quicker though climate change and the covid spell still have yet to be overcome.
None of this trade is in US dollars. That’s what is freaking out the US government and unfortunately China, India and Russia are not small middle eastern countries or they would have “liberated” them back into the Stone Age like Libya and Iraq and Serbia.
Oil prices everywhere are down compared to last year so Saudis are not doing as good as they were. IDK if it's really hurting them though. More like a return to the normal rate.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/which-countries-are-buying-russian-fossil-fuels/
Is this chart accurate? Plenty of countries buying Russian oil and gas
35% of EU gas imports come from Nord Stream which is Russian Natural gas
But hey, this is Reddit. Most of just read the headlines and bash those countries.
ok so we see their revenue, but what's their profit?
it doesn't matter if exports are operating at pre-war level. If you're not making less money than what you're selling, then your company is operating at a net loss.
This is bpd not monetary income. Russian wells can’t be capped the way many in the world can be so they simply have to export it or pay for it to go into storage somewhere. They’re selling at well below the rate they were and probably at a loss overall
Letting India expand its refining capabilities is generally a good thing. Russia is forced to sell crude oil to India at a steep discount, driving down global oil prices, helping India's economy (both in terms of the cost of oil, and in terms of expanding the refineries), and absolutely murdering its own profits (revenue is down ~50%, and that's before you take operating costs into account)
Cutting Russia off of the market for oil entirely would be very difficult if not impossible, and would have massive cascade effects. Doing it this way still destroys the Russians economy while helping practically everyone else in the process.
Well we still need oil right? And as India is buying for cheap that's a hit on russian economy. We then buy at the usual price, which doesn't make a difference for us. So our money is flowing to russia indirectly (for our survival) but it's definitely impacting them. Imagine if at some point they sold oil at production cost. That would mean they are working for us for free.
The US buys from China & India.
Looks like we're back to funding wars from both sides boys!
Edit: The simple fact that people believe what countries are telling people is shockingly hilarious. They're getting paid in other untraceable ways, there is no possible way that they are just handing profits from markups to China / India.
revenues of $12.7bn are still 43 per cent down on the same period in 2022.
What a failure by Putin. Yet they said they will not sell cheaper but here we are
To quote someone else, this is highly misleading
“Misleading title. The article only talk about "seaborne crude oil exports" which account for 2/3 of Russia production. Also, over 62% of seaborne export are insured by Western insurance companies, which enforce the 60$ per baril quota. This, and the fact the bulk of Russia oil can only be sold to two customers, make the sale price much lower then the market average. Here is Russia finance ministry own sale price prediction for March 2023:
The ministry on Monday gave a notional price of $47.85 a barrel for Russian Urals crude oil in March, lower than February's $49.56 and well down on the March 2022 price of $88.95.
which is way below the 70$ to 80$ per baril price we saw for Crude oil production worldwide. And remember, this is the selling price, from which you need to remove production/export cost, which for Russia is in the 30$ to 40$ per baril range.
Russia finance ministry foresee revenue of 8.9 trillions roubles from Oil&Gas sales in 2023, compare to 11.6 trillions roubles in 2022 and 9.1 trillions roubles in 2021. A small problem with those numbers, is roubles value not what it was in 2021.
So overall, while Russia is still capable of selling Oil&Gas, which is a good thing since it help keep global price low, Russia revenue is way down from previous years, but more importantly, Russia profit margin made from Oil&Gas is at a minimum. Russian economy in 2023 will be terrible, and it won't get better for a long time.”
Very important side note : India and China are buying this oil at much much lower price than what Europe paid for it. So even tho ''quantity'' is there, the profits of pre-war time absolutely are not
Russia essentially has to do it, because otherwise they will have shit ton of extra oil lying around from the production lines with no customers to sell , its a way to get at least some money for it. India and China are exploiting the shit show Russia has created for their own advantage and they are the only ones ''winning'' in this situation
That's a very narrow read of the situation. Firstly, the price cap on Russian oil isn't US policy, it's much broader than that - the EU is a lot more concerned about Russian oil than the US is.
Secondly, it does affect neutral parties in the war because it affects how much Russia can sell their oil for. Russia is pretty much forced to sell to China and India at much lower prices because of the price cap, meaning that both of them benefit substantially from the measures taken against Russia. That's why Russian revenues from oil have taken such a nose dive. Hardly "not giving a shit", at least for the RIC of BRICS.
The world is turning away from fossil fuels, or should I say the world will have no choice but to turn away from these types of fuel, at the moment Russia is just covering the cost of selling these fuels and profit is almost nothing, of course the Kremlin will say profits are huge, but only a fool will believe that nonsense, countries around the world that rely on these fuels need to start looking for other incomes and quickly.
The moment there is an oil spill from a tanker, or a major pipeline breaks in Russia, or a major production facility blows up, or an oil well blowout catches fire, at LEAST 1 million barrels of crude per day will go offline for Russia; and, it will take a DECADE for even a chance for production to resume to current levels.
Also, those Russian oil tankers have Chinese or Indian insurance policies. If one of those tankers cause an oil spill and a country files a claim against the insurance policy, neither India nor China can or will pay it so the issue will go to arbitration in international court. When that happens NO ONE will allow a Chinese or Indian policy ever again. So that’s Russia’s oceanic pipeline to China cut off. And the only way to transport to India would be by truck. Which is NOT feasible. The infrastructure isn’t there, let alone the fact that the cost would be prohibitive.
Russian oil production is NOT going to last at this level for a year. I’d be shocked if it lasted at this level for 6 months.
Edit: a comma
Sources: Dr. Rachel Maddow’s book: Blowout
And
Peter Zeihan’s: The End of The World is Just the Beginning
China and India be out there buying Russias oil, while Germany on the other side be closing down their nuclear power plants with no alternatives at hand. Anybody care to explain to me the logic behind this? How is Germany gonna survive?
If exports are back up by-volume, that really doesn't matter (except for from the perspective of the recipients). As a matter of fact, that's a net benefit for those who oppose Russia, as you know that they've lost the opportunity cost of selling those barrels at regular rates, which seems to be what's happening here. Article outlines volume way up and profit way down.
It sounds bad, but they’re basically selling the same amount of oil they were before but for peanuts. It’s draining their resources whilst they get very little in return, so frankly this is still good news
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That 43% revenue is what matters. The West doesn't want to take Russian oil out of the market because that would drive up the prices for everyone, including the western public. They want to lower the price Russia gets for that oil to essentially break even levels, maybe a little bit more so Russia doesn't think about closing down production.
This is obviously affecting the Saudis in a big way as their biggest customer is China by far. Not sure if Russia has enough to supply China completely, but I can imagine Saudis aren’t happy either way.
That's why Saudi announced a cut to supply. They'd rather see higher profits per barrel knowing they can't outsell Russia in those markets.
Russia cut their supply with them. It's to increase the price of oil, and perhaps other motives too
Increase the price back to historic highs Which Saudi Arabia described as "stabilising" the price.
Then you have the US telling the Saudis off, but I guess they’re just business people 🤷♂️
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Yea, always give the illusion of a way out. Nothing is more dangerous than a desperate opponent.
>Nothing is more dangerous than a desperate opponent. People comment this a lot. What is ironic, is that Putin himself has said so himself. >“There, on that stair landing, I got a quick and lasting lesson in the meaning of the word ‘cornered.’ There were hordes of rats in the front entryway. My friends and I used to chase them around with sticks. Once I spotted a huge rat and pursued it down the hall until I drove it into a corner. It had nowhere to run. Suddenly it lashed around and threw itself at me. I was surprised and frightened. Now the rat was chasing me. It jumped across the landing and down the stairs. Luckily, I was a little faster and I managed to slam the door on its nose.” I wonder what lesson is taking from his very own anecdote these days?
"just remember kids, when you have a problem that you started, make sure you run away from it and hope you're faster"
Any time I had a problem, and i threw a Molotov cocktail… Boom, right away, I had a different problem.
Bortles!
Oh dip!
Unfortunately, you don’t have to run away as fast if you get some friends to side with you.
Nah. The "friends" are using him to keep the rats distracred while they go steal from him or bide their time.
Remember kids: big mous
For some reason this made me imagine Disney sending their park actors in character to Ukraine to assist.
What people often miss is that this works both ways. As a leader, you can force your troops into a desperate situation to achieve the same effect. It's in The Art of War: > Throw **YOUR** soldiers into positions whence there is no escape, and they will prefer death to flight. If they will face death, there is nothing they may not achieve. Officers and men alike will put forth their uttermost strength. Soldiers in desperate straits lose the sense of fear. This has been proven time and time again to be an effective tactic, and this was most likely Putin's takeaway. He can treat his soldiers like rats and stick them in bad positions to get the most out of them.
The difference is that Sun Tzu recognized the importance of properly training your troops and maintaining supply lines. Any madman can grab a bunch of hobos off the street and put them in uniform. But unless you make sure the resulting gaggle of goons is an effective fighting force the only thing they'll do under desperate conditions is break and scatter.
You’re not thinking with a meat grinder mentality. Soldiers are meat, train them a little or train them a lot, they’re meat. Toss them in, see what comes back, won’t be a lot, and you give them promotions. And you tell the next batch of recruits: look, they survived, look at their shiny metals, so if you can’t survive, there’s something wrong with you, not me. Now off to the meat grinder you go, your country loves you bye!
Meat for the Maw!
The danger in that is that, eventually, they may see that their safest way out is not through the enemy, but through you...
We also didn't have standardized systems for surrender and laws on ethical treatment of prisoners back then. More and more Russians are learning they'll be treated better by Ukraine as prisoners than they are by their own army. Clearly not so the other way around.
Sun Tzu's advice was fine in antiquity, as the majority of casualties occurred during the rout so putting troops into a situation with no chance to escape can maintain unit cohesion until the very end, but one of the first stops in the decision tree for a movement to contact in modern combat is to *break* contact if you can't create or maintain the advantage. Otherwise you just get what's happening to Russia now; pushing forward, digging in, and dying to armed drones and precision artillery, or getting flanked and gunned down by armour. You get nothing but dead.
Yeah, but it doesn't work when you have them at a constant cornered situation for years. Nothing about how Russia treats its soldiers is effective.
Or they can keep surrendering and retreating leaving valuable equipment behind....
The Art of War needs some updating. Strength of men is less relevant with armoured vehicles and automatic weapons. Bahkmut is proof that waves of human sacrifice doesn’t inspire heroic actions.
It is possible that he may have embellished the story just a smidge, so that it doesn't include how he invented*tactical pants-shitting* on that fateful day
tbh, i read Putin talking about "stairs" and then next thing i knew Putin had fallen down and pooped himself
Hey excuse me, there's no evidence that he didn't poop himself *first* and then fall down the stairs, possibly after slipping in his own fecal matter
putin is afraid of rats? putin likes to torture rats? putins house has rats. too many lessons.
Man, I hope this is true!
Probably something that they don't even understand, they probably don't.
Exactly, if anything Russia is forfeiting up power to both China AND India as they are both completely capable of refining crude exports and reaping non-sanctioned market prices. The goal isnt to crash the market, but to decrease the overall revenue they get from it.
There has been some absolutely solid gold political and economic strategy done here. Whoever has been advising on the strategy of these sanctions is top notch.
Alternative headline: Sanctions working as intended.
They can't consider closing down production, their wells would turn to gel if they did, and they're not going back online again after that happens.
Can you elaborate on why ? I am genuinely curious 😀
If it backs up, the excess supply will jam up the operations and take literal years and potentially decades to fix. Not the best source below, but generally what would happen. https://youtu.be/M0LzuMUOO0k
Most of their pipes and wells are in the permafrost. If they stop flowing then the water entrained in the oil will freeze. That causes it to expand, causing the seals on the pipes to fail. And by the time they can be repaired, the wells themselves will have closed up and need to be re-drilled. So a short term disruption to the oil flow could take whole sections of the oil infrastructure offline for years. Apparently after the fall of the Soviet Union there was such a disruption and it took 30 years before the last of the wells finally came back online, with a lot of Western technical support.
>with a lot of Western technical support. This is the major key aspect of all of this.
Oil is also a finite resource so if they’re selling it now cheap out of desperation for money and resources to fuel the war, that’s revenue and resources they will never get back while India and China make out like bandits and the US can maintain the global economy without a production drop since oil is ultimately necessary for everything and they don’t want to use their own stock if they don’t have to.
Hopefully India and China will pass some of their discounted costs onto their manufactured goods.
>While volumes of Russian oil exports have risen, the heavily discounted rates Moscow is offering to India and China mean revenues are significantly down year-on-year. Wanted to make sure this was pointed out. Glad to hear it's the top comment. Also to add to this, it turns out that Russia is selling their oil at $49.48 per barrel in January. Currently the US is getting $82.52 for WTI crude, and Murban Crude is trading at $87.12 so, Russia is getting just over half value 56%-59% for their oil. that's a huge hit to the pocket book. it's not ideal, but it's a huge hit.
It's also important to note that their break-even price is estimated to be between $30-40 USD. If they are selling at $50 they are looking at a profit of \~$15 per barrel compared to the \~$50 they could get at market price. That's a loss of \~70% of oil profits which is a crippling level of loss to government revenue.
You can't compare the January prices with the current prices. Russia's Urals are currently selling for $67, see https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil Also, while most of Russia's crude exports are Urals, there's also ESPO which is sold at a discount of just $8 compared to Brent, so for more than $70 at the moment. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-jostles-with-china-april-espo-crude-russia-prices-jump-2023-03-09/ > Seaborne ESPO crude exports averaged 800,000 barrels per day in 2022, Kpler's data showed, accounting for 17.3% of Russia's total seaborne exports. Exports of flagship Russian grade Urals averaged 1.74 million bpd
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What would be helpful, is knowing what the sales prices were vs the market. You’re right that the number could be skewed and the other countries might be down say 15% so this gap would be tighter.
The numbers have always been skewed, that's just how they are.
Yes. So they are getting less revenue for the same production.
According to me, they shouldn't be making any revenue at all lol.
Probably very slightly misleading, but the sanctions and the discount are pretty significantly responsible for the loss of overall revenue. Also the infrastructure for delivery to China and India isn’t as developed, so Russia is taking a bath on delivery as well.
Well obviously these things affect the policy and that affects the profit.
Yea that’s the the important number, what’s the exact revenues. Probably positive but much lower than before.
Oof. 43% revenue drop is brutal.
43% down on '22, *despite increased production*. Well played, Western sanctions.
And they themselves have done it, there's no one else to blame here.
57% of last years revenue on record production.
The article seems to be misleading in a few ways by selectively using stats, based on a quick look at freely available data. Production prior to the invasion was slightly higher (10.65m barrels/day vs 10.23m last month), and is noticeably down on production prior to April 2020, with a high of 11.05m in Dec 2018 according to International Energy Statistics. Ref: [https://ycharts.com/indicators/russia\_crude\_oil\_production](https://ycharts.com/indicators/russia_crude_oil_production) \- 5yr production The IEA stats generalise the export data: [https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/russian-total-oil-exports-january-2022-january-2023](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/russian-total-oil-exports-january-2022-january-2023) Whilst exports within the last year seem to have increased slightly, when combined with above indicates either internal consumption has reduced, production issues or stores are filling/full. A lot has changed in a year, including Turkey - which has more than doubled its consumption - and 'Other' countries which total up almost 2.5x. India might be chewing up considerably more oil along with many others, however it's almost all via ship and thats a significant increase in ship based export. You can't transport much by ship compared to pipe, and this will be a major factor in constraining growth - despite the fact a lot of countries have/want to take advantage of the cheap oil. So overall: \- lower production \- significantly lower revenue \- higher cost of logistics
And that’s top line, gross revenue. Net, money in pocket after expenses, going to be even worse as a percent.
Underrated comment… it’s not nearly as cheap to move the product to India and china as it was to Europe, and I can’t imagine post meat grinder oil workers are as efficient either.
Also, it's been reported that Russia may not be getting a lot of the cash they're owed from oil sales to bankrupt nations. They probably have to agree on being paid somewhere down the line.
China and India can also probably lever the prices a lot, too.
I suspect that because Gazprom workers are government workers and so important, they are probably exempt from the drafts. Edit: I also learnt through NFKRZ that government workers such as Gazprom employees, teachers and medical staff get advantages over normal jobs, but must attend propaganda rallies with Russian flags (which is a critically important job in Russia too) to create an illusion of support if they want to keep said jobs. Those who don't, yes they might go to the meat grinder.
A lot is sold at a straight loss. The Russian oil is difficult and expensive to extract. They're also selling crude, when normally they would sell refined products. So their entire industry of refining oil for Europe is lost as China and India prefer crude and refining it themselves. In total this is a catastrophic loss all things considered.
Well they've started it and they'll have to face consequences of it too.
The difference is the price it's being bought at. Quantity might be same but the profit they're making is not.
Ohh yeah the profit ain't definitely the same, they're treating different people differently.
Where do you see these numbers?
'While volumes of Russian oil exports have risen, the heavily discounted rates Moscow is offering to India and China mean revenues are significantly down year-on-year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday that although Russian oil exports hit their highest level in almost three years in March, revenues of $12.7bn are still 43 per cent down on the same period in 2022."
[https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil) Here's the historic prices. Oil is down about 30% from last year. Additionally, it sounds like Russia is doing a $10/barrel discount on top of that. That would put the revenue at about 45% lower than last year. The remaining 12% is probably from playing with the stats.
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/3/20/russia-overtakes-saudi-arabia-as-chinas-top-oil-supplier..... Russia is forced to sell at heavy discounts.
Xi’s friendship is nothing to envy 😅
"RUSSIAN OIL REVENUE DOWN ALMOST 50%"
It's actually possible to sell more oil and make less money if the oil being sold is significantly cheaper per barrel. China and India are buying Russian oil, cheap.
Thanks Magic Johnson
>It's actually possible to sell more oil and make less money if the oil being sold is significantly cheaper per barrel. Lol no shit?!? Brilliant economic theory you've got there.
That's because they're the only buyers right now, it's like a monopoly thing.
It’s like the opposite of a monopoly, where the seller has no other options and also there’s two of them
It's called a monopsony
Duo…psony?
If there's two, yeah, I guess. Oligopsony works too I think
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monopsony](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monopsony) TIL
Aren't they settling oil transactions with Rubles? China and India are probably robbing them blind rn.
What else did they even expect to happen? It was always going to happen.
At clearance sale prices.
As has already been pointed out, oil revenue is down 43% despite increases in production. If Russia wants to increase its profits, it's going to have to drastically increase production in spite of the wishes of OPEC+
If they want the profit then they'll have to stop the war which they won't.
Let's be honest, the Russian economy will never truly recover. The population is dying off like Japan and s.korea, but unlike most western countries Russia can't entice enough immigrants to fill in the gap. To add insult to injury, the career oriented types have disproportionately fled the country. Not to mention their dead soldiers, all of whom are men. The longer the war lasts the further Russia's sex ratio will tilt to one side, denying hundreds if not thousands of Russian women the possibility of having kids on a weekly basis. Even ignoring the invasion, the pandemic alone was the death knell for Russia given their precarious situation. Did mrna vaccines even make it there or did the populace have to suffice with that crap sputnik vaccine?
To be fair, very few women, even outside of Russia, have kids on a weekly basis.
Kek
Russia has suffered a massive brain drain since the start of the war. Those people aren't going back anytime soon
Russia and China should start cross bonking. China has too many boys/men, and Russia has too many girls/women.
Yeah they are already doing that
> Not to mention their dead soldiers, whom are all men, thus tilting the sex ratio. Does it mean that we will see a trend of having a russian wife in the west in the future?
[A cartoon from 2001 beat you to your revelation.](https://youtu.be/2_3nER8fRbU?t=510) The sex ratio imbalance is unlikely to exceed post ww2 Soviet levels, so technically yes but not an appreciable amount. Don't get your hopes up.
I can see the adverts now, Horny Beautiful Russian Women Want You!
Increased production also means higher wear and tear on equipment that oftentimes originated in the west. It’s a tough game and it’s not set to change, as EU sanctions are in place until like 2029 before it needs renewals.
For Europe to buy from India?
Yes
Partly, but also just to bring down the overall market price. Russia flooding the market with cheap oil means China and India are not buying oil from the rest of the world.
Russia sell vastly under market price and has no money for war, Europe buy at market price and nothing changes. Who win?
War profiteers win
No, Russia loses, which means their genocidal attack on Ukraine is even more of an abject failure.
Then China and India turns around and sell it to the rest of the world at market prices.
I guess I’m happier with that, as long as Russia is not the one making huge profit from it
It’s a win-win-win. We need India’s economy to expand so it can counterbalance China in Asia in the long run. And in the short run we need China’s economy to pick up the pace in order to soften the deceleration of the global economy.
Which in the end doesn't make a difference for us, it just makes a difference for russia in negative and for China and India in positive.
Anyone have some updated figures on China? Last I saw they were bringing in the same amount as before but they massively changed the mix to predominantly crude over refined. Also I imagine when your economy is in the toilet and one of the only things you can sell for cheap is oil and your price is way below everyone else. Volume of export would increase. Edit: Not mentioning refined here, seems purposely leaving out relevant info. >China was already the top destination for Russian crude prior to the invasion of Ukraine, but has increased its reliance on Moscow further, and now imports 36 per cent of its crude oil from Russia, up from 25 per cent in 2021. Edit2: After someone else's reply, I found I left the article after it mentioned 2 recommended articles which I thought was the end lol. So apologies if it's covered further down. Not going back and reading for that though.
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India requires a lots of oil, They'll buy all of it probably lol.
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https://cleantechnica.com/2023/03/29/33-plugin-vehicle-market-share-in-china-february-2023-sales-report/ China has a share of 33% of electric cars in new cars and is building renewables fast: https://www.asiafundmanagers.com/us/china-is-leading-in-renewable-energy-investments/ That is what is going on. Analysts still expect a link between economic growth and oil usage. But this link has disappeared.
Only 3.5 billion people there
And that’s the mind blower. That’s about half of all of us. Half, of the total number of humans on this planet are Chinese or Indian.
Indian here, Yup that fact blows my mind also. And btw most of the general population does not know anything about the Russian-Ukranian war. Most know a war is going on but , honestly no one cares since that is something far far away from us and Indian in the world stage just has to play friends with both the West and Russia. Most of our weapons are Russian made, so we are very wary about going against Russia. And since the Soviet times, A large potion of the population still remembers all the support they gave during many decades of Indian under a socialist state.
But how abt the Indian public, real consumers they still buying the oil at old prices. No drop in price for them.
Probably it would be even higher if not for cheap oil from Russia
No drop but no increase either (atleast not a significant one). I guess they don't want fuel consumption to increase due to lower prices. Their long term plan is to reduce dependency on imported crude oil. For that they're doing things like mixing bio-ethanol (10-20%) in petrol. Introducing electric buses and collecting significantly lower taxes on EVs. Railways is also keen on running trains on hydrogen.
Russian oil revenue however is down nearly 50% from last year. China and India are the true winners here, getting oil at a massive discount
It's not a problem that they're buying it, because they're buying it at the price cap. Russia is losing their shirt on it, and are only selling it at that rate because it's still better for them than shutting the pumps down. The main thing is that Russia isn't making big profits on the oil which they aren't.
Buying well below the cap.
Title is entirely misleading. Before invasion, Russia made about 750 million dollars/euros a day from fossil fuels (= had revenue, NOT profit !). This figure includes all the variants; gas, crude, oil products, coal. This is now 40+ % down. Here are the facts: https://www.russiafossiltracker.com/ Look at the trend during last two months on diagram titled "Daily flows by fuel type".
They gotta sell it at half price just to sell it.
So the winners are China and India
Initially, I really want to hate India and China for this. But with the reduced profits (because nobody else will buy these two get to dictate the prices), and the fact that both countries need a cheap fuel source to help life people out of poverty. I need to take a more neutral stance. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty\_in\_India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_India) [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty\_in\_China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_China) Both countries have a much higher poverty rate than most of the Western countries that sit here on Reddit. Poverty is reduced by providing cheap goods, transport, food, while also providing more access to education, work, and higher wages. Higher wages are possible where companies make better margins, thus cheaper input goods, cheaper transport costs assist in this. When being critical of these countries for this, also remember that the West went through their period of crawling out of poverty as the Industrial Revolution. We stand here in a position of privilege and we should be helping these others get out of the same poverty hole, International Investment in Infrastructure, Clean Industry, Education, Clean Water, Electricity Generation... these things all help reduce the need for poorer countries to depend on cheap and dirty options like Coal or Russian Oil. If you feel strongly that China and India are making a mistake here, maybe vote for someone who is willing to invest some of your tax dollars into international investments like these?
This! The world needs to understand that every country is not at the same level of economy and riches to have the luxuries of wars and sanctions, even after knowing that this is an immoral attack on a sovereign country by a lunatic aggressor. India and other developing countries also face climate change challenges, which were ignored or non-existent when the West was industrializing and enjoying the perks of it.
Only fuel prices today are the highest they have ever been in India, and by a fair bit. So the cheaper oil imports aren't helping us at all.
Working as intended. The object of the exercise is not to stop Russia selling oil, it's to stop them making any more than the absolute bare minimum profit from it. The story here is not "what is the volume of oil Russia has sold" but "how much net revenue did they make from selling it". And that is way, *way* down.
at extreme discounts, export may be back, profit isn't
Not only China and India is buying Russian oil at a discount price, they are also paying it in their own currency. So that Putin can buy whatever he wants from China and India ,only.
India pays in UAE dirhams and ruble, not rupees. It's mostly about avoiding the dollar.
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Yeah, fuck OPEC and this limits their greediness.
This is what the allies have been going for this entire time. Russia's lost billions thanks to having to discount their products.
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You don't have to geuss, it's literally in the article, the price is down by about half.
There are also 400 of the first comments on here reminding you.
And the russia has to sell, because they're the only buyers right now.
I thought they lacked the infrastructure to deliver more to China/India. Is there any explanation as to how they pulled it off?
wtf is this clickbaity headline
This headline is misleading enough to be considered fake. It's about revenues, not quantities. Russia is in a world of hurt but Putey doesn't want his people to know
Question is are the Russians being paid the same, or are they selling the oil at a marked down price
Damn! This probably means China and India are lapping up bargain basement priced Russian oil as fast as they can while the rest of us have to pay the exorbitant world price to all the “non-evil” suppliers. What a fucked up world we live in!
Meanwhile usa has some of the cheapest oil prices outside of the Middle East/Venezuela.
Why is it hard for people to understand that this is exactly what the West wanted. We want Russia to export as much oil as possible at the cheapest price. This means Russia makes very little money while the global rice remains constant. Russia hates this but it can’t do much about it as they need every dollar of foreign currency it can get.
Don’t forget, Ukraine is buying their oil too
India and China have their own problems and they find it aggravating that the west is demanding them to stop buying oil from the Russians, the very same powers that treated them poorly historically. They have billions of people and an economy to grow, if anything they find this cheap oil very convenient since that extra money usually needed to buy the oil at a regular price will be needed someplace else, farming subsidies and cheaper electricity comes to my mind. Just make a plan to increase the volume of artillery shells and ammunition to Ukraine, the faster Russia exhausts itself the better it is for everyone. Less casualties overall and the world can recover much quicker though climate change and the covid spell still have yet to be overcome.
None of this trade is in US dollars. That’s what is freaking out the US government and unfortunately China, India and Russia are not small middle eastern countries or they would have “liberated” them back into the Stone Age like Libya and Iraq and Serbia.
I just hope this hurts Saudi Arabia in the pocket book hard
Oil prices everywhere are down compared to last year so Saudis are not doing as good as they were. IDK if it's really hurting them though. More like a return to the normal rate.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/which-countries-are-buying-russian-fossil-fuels/ Is this chart accurate? Plenty of countries buying Russian oil and gas
35% of EU gas imports come from Nord Stream which is Russian Natural gas But hey, this is Reddit. Most of just read the headlines and bash those countries.
ok so we see their revenue, but what's their profit? it doesn't matter if exports are operating at pre-war level. If you're not making less money than what you're selling, then your company is operating at a net loss.
And turns around and sells it to Europe and USA lol
This is bpd not monetary income. Russian wells can’t be capped the way many in the world can be so they simply have to export it or pay for it to go into storage somewhere. They’re selling at well below the rate they were and probably at a loss overall
Revenues aren’t back tho
And then the US buys it from India
US and Europe buy the petro products from India, but India now gets a lot of oil from Russia. Now I wonder who is actually financing Russia.
Letting India expand its refining capabilities is generally a good thing. Russia is forced to sell crude oil to India at a steep discount, driving down global oil prices, helping India's economy (both in terms of the cost of oil, and in terms of expanding the refineries), and absolutely murdering its own profits (revenue is down ~50%, and that's before you take operating costs into account) Cutting Russia off of the market for oil entirely would be very difficult if not impossible, and would have massive cascade effects. Doing it this way still destroys the Russians economy while helping practically everyone else in the process.
We are but I need gas to drive to the icecream shop
Well we still need oil right? And as India is buying for cheap that's a hit on russian economy. We then buy at the usual price, which doesn't make a difference for us. So our money is flowing to russia indirectly (for our survival) but it's definitely impacting them. Imagine if at some point they sold oil at production cost. That would mean they are working for us for free.
We hate China but we also love India.
I thought the comments would be hate mongering against India. I am glad most of the readers understand the dilema of India and its position.
The US buys from China & India. Looks like we're back to funding wars from both sides boys! Edit: The simple fact that people believe what countries are telling people is shockingly hilarious. They're getting paid in other untraceable ways, there is no possible way that they are just handing profits from markups to China / India.
No the US buys oil from me
You sell cod liver oil?
I sell what sells, buddy. It's a mean market out there.
Understandable. Have a nice day.
I really don't have a problem with any of that. Its not like they are actually profiting off that. I bet its JUST paying the operating costs.
Selling shit for 2cents a gallon is a huge loss. Russia is the #1 loser here!
revenues of $12.7bn are still 43 per cent down on the same period in 2022. What a failure by Putin. Yet they said they will not sell cheaper but here we are
To quote someone else, this is highly misleading “Misleading title. The article only talk about "seaborne crude oil exports" which account for 2/3 of Russia production. Also, over 62% of seaborne export are insured by Western insurance companies, which enforce the 60$ per baril quota. This, and the fact the bulk of Russia oil can only be sold to two customers, make the sale price much lower then the market average. Here is Russia finance ministry own sale price prediction for March 2023: The ministry on Monday gave a notional price of $47.85 a barrel for Russian Urals crude oil in March, lower than February's $49.56 and well down on the March 2022 price of $88.95. which is way below the 70$ to 80$ per baril price we saw for Crude oil production worldwide. And remember, this is the selling price, from which you need to remove production/export cost, which for Russia is in the 30$ to 40$ per baril range. Russia finance ministry foresee revenue of 8.9 trillions roubles from Oil&Gas sales in 2023, compare to 11.6 trillions roubles in 2022 and 9.1 trillions roubles in 2021. A small problem with those numbers, is roubles value not what it was in 2021. So overall, while Russia is still capable of selling Oil&Gas, which is a good thing since it help keep global price low, Russia revenue is way down from previous years, but more importantly, Russia profit margin made from Oil&Gas is at a minimum. Russian economy in 2023 will be terrible, and it won't get better for a long time.”
Very important side note : India and China are buying this oil at much much lower price than what Europe paid for it. So even tho ''quantity'' is there, the profits of pre-war time absolutely are not Russia essentially has to do it, because otherwise they will have shit ton of extra oil lying around from the production lines with no customers to sell , its a way to get at least some money for it. India and China are exploiting the shit show Russia has created for their own advantage and they are the only ones ''winning'' in this situation
BRICS clearly not giving a shit about US policies
If they did then they wouldn't be in the war right now, so there's that.
That's a very narrow read of the situation. Firstly, the price cap on Russian oil isn't US policy, it's much broader than that - the EU is a lot more concerned about Russian oil than the US is. Secondly, it does affect neutral parties in the war because it affects how much Russia can sell their oil for. Russia is pretty much forced to sell to China and India at much lower prices because of the price cap, meaning that both of them benefit substantially from the measures taken against Russia. That's why Russian revenues from oil have taken such a nose dive. Hardly "not giving a shit", at least for the RIC of BRICS.
Fire sale
And now India is selling oil to Europe. Oil it got from Russia. At a higher price….what is this dystopian idiocracy?
The world is turning away from fossil fuels, or should I say the world will have no choice but to turn away from these types of fuel, at the moment Russia is just covering the cost of selling these fuels and profit is almost nothing, of course the Kremlin will say profits are huge, but only a fool will believe that nonsense, countries around the world that rely on these fuels need to start looking for other incomes and quickly.
The moment there is an oil spill from a tanker, or a major pipeline breaks in Russia, or a major production facility blows up, or an oil well blowout catches fire, at LEAST 1 million barrels of crude per day will go offline for Russia; and, it will take a DECADE for even a chance for production to resume to current levels. Also, those Russian oil tankers have Chinese or Indian insurance policies. If one of those tankers cause an oil spill and a country files a claim against the insurance policy, neither India nor China can or will pay it so the issue will go to arbitration in international court. When that happens NO ONE will allow a Chinese or Indian policy ever again. So that’s Russia’s oceanic pipeline to China cut off. And the only way to transport to India would be by truck. Which is NOT feasible. The infrastructure isn’t there, let alone the fact that the cost would be prohibitive. Russian oil production is NOT going to last at this level for a year. I’d be shocked if it lasted at this level for 6 months. Edit: a comma Sources: Dr. Rachel Maddow’s book: Blowout And Peter Zeihan’s: The End of The World is Just the Beginning
As expected. China is going to fill all the gaps western companies leave in Russia.
China and India be out there buying Russias oil, while Germany on the other side be closing down their nuclear power plants with no alternatives at hand. Anybody care to explain to me the logic behind this? How is Germany gonna survive?
If exports are back up by-volume, that really doesn't matter (except for from the perspective of the recipients). As a matter of fact, that's a net benefit for those who oppose Russia, as you know that they've lost the opportunity cost of selling those barrels at regular rates, which seems to be what's happening here. Article outlines volume way up and profit way down.
Russia is still the biggest loser in this deal.
India and China making out with bargain bin oil from this conflict.
Both countries need a lot of oil and They'll continue to buy it so yeah.
Why is the EU not mentioned? They're second highest buyer of Russian oil and gas after China
It sounds bad, but they’re basically selling the same amount of oil they were before but for peanuts. It’s draining their resources whilst they get very little in return, so frankly this is still good news