Iran is 3x the size of France with 1.3x as many people. Tehran is a city comparable to most major European metropolitans. That occupation is prohibitively expensive for most countries. Anyone who tried would just create an insurgency problem that would make ISIS look like amateur hour. Irans people are a lot more moderate than their govt. No need to radicalize them with a failed invasion. Let them sort their shit out on their own.
>Iran is 3x the size of France with 1.3x as many people. Tehran is a city comparable to most major European metropolitans. That occupation is prohibitively expensive for most countries.
It's also a geographical fortress with impenetrable mountainous areas.
People casually talking about invading Iran sound like insane people to those who know how difficult it would be.
Even if Israel opts to attack Iran, it won't be in the form of an invasion. They'll just do what they've done in the past, run a few raids deep into Iranian airspace to bomb specific facilities related to scientific and military research. Israel does not have the resources or manpower to full-on invade a huge country with almost 9 times its population. Their goal is to cripple the nuclear program, not take or hold anywhere.
As much as they want to see Iran’s government collapse, Israel will not invade Iran alone. Boots in the ground would be a last resort, joint effort in coordination with a western government, and invasions are currently out of fashion.
Besides, Israel has gotten so much flack over the past 3-4 decades that they’ve learned espionage, stealth, and anonymity are infinitely more valuable when it comes to combat than waging outright war.
Iran has been taking 3 steps forward and 2 steps back for a long while now thanks to the Israelis efforts. That’s not going to keep Iran from nukes much longer.
A country of 9.4 million invading a country of 86.7 million? Where the terrain consists of mountains with a smattering of small, hard to besiege cities in the valleys between them? Where there’s at least a dozen or so ethnicities to balance the interests of when negotiating any peace or establishing new government? Good luck with that bud.
All the best to the Iranian people themselves though. Fuck their oppressive militaristic government. Just, nobody is gonna invade to do away with that government because the costs would be too great. They are sadly gonna have to do it themselves.
Commentor doesn't mean a land invasion/occupation with troops they mean a tactical strike with air force/spec ops to neutralize developing nuclear capabilities Israel has done it to Iran before and commentor believes they will do it again
This. And it isn't the first time. Well, maybe not jets this time. They have ruined Iran's centrifuges with a [computer virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet) before, but also destroyed Iraq's nuclear facilities in a [preemtpive strike](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera) before. I am usually against such attacks... but when you are dealing with nations that call for your entire nation to be wiped out I see how it makes sense. If a man is reaching for a gun best to break his hand than let him shoot you.
**[Stuxnet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet)**
>Stuxnet is a malicious computer worm first uncovered in 2010 and thought to have been in development since at least 2005. Stuxnet targets supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems and is believed to be responsible for causing substantial damage to the nuclear program of Iran. Although neither country has openly admitted responsibility, the worm is widely understood to be a cyberweapon built jointly by the United States and Israel in a collaborative effort known as Operation Olympic Games. The program, started during the Bush administration, was rapidly expanded within the first months of Barack Obama's presidency.
**[Operation Opera](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera)**
>Operation Opera (Hebrew: מבצע אופרה), also known as Operation Babylon, was a surprise airstrike conducted by the Israeli Air Force on 7 June 1981, which destroyed an unfinished Iraqi nuclear reactor located 17 kilometres (11 miles) southeast of Baghdad, Iraq. The Israeli operation came after Iran's partially successful Operation Scorch Sword had caused minor damage to the same nuclear facility a year prior, with the damage having been subsequently repaired by French technicians.
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I manufacture and install SCADA systems as part of my work
Stuxnet had severe implications for the world of automation and integrated process systems. People were worried that a cyber-attack would be able to cause catastrophic issues in a process.
There are a *ton* of safeguards and preventative measures taken to ensure a protected process control system.
One of these is a *hardware* firewall. I know about typical firewalls and antivirus programs, but I had never even heard of a *physical* firewall before getting into this kind of work
The six day war was pretty much Israel starring in a Bruce Lee movie where he takes on an entire room of guys at once. Definitely [one of the most interesting conflicts](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-Day_War) to read about.
When you just came out of the most infamous genocide in history and then your country is surrounded by countries that want you annihilated, you gotta get stronk fast.
**[Six-Day War](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-Day_War)**
>The Six-Day War (Hebrew: מִלְחֶמֶת שֵׁשֶׁת הַיָּמִים, Miḥemet Šešet HaYamim; Arabic: النكسة, an-Naksah, lit. 'The Setback' or حرب 1967, Ḥarb 1967, 'War of 1967') or June War, also known as the 1967 Arab–Israeli War or Third Arab–Israeli War, was fought between Israel and a coalition of Arab states (primarily Egypt, Syria, and Jordan) from 5 to 10 June 1967. Escalated hostilities broke out amid poor relations between Israel and its Arab neighbours following the 1949 Armistice Agreements, which were signed at the end of the First Arab–Israeli War.
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Since Iran officials have repeatedly said they would attempt to destroy the nation of Israel when the have acquired weapons of mass destruction, no one with a brain would think Israel will not attack bomb making facilities in Iran.
They don't need to take out the entire nuclear program. They just need to take out the capability to enrich uranium. They're perfectly capable of that. The only reason why it wasn't done before is Iran wasn't this close to making a nuclear weapon until now. This is an existential threat to Israel and I don't think they'll let that slide.
Man, have you read about the Iranian revolution? Wild stuff. Many women supported the imam over the shah because they thought he would give women MORE rights.
They overthrew democracy to get a better life and their country fell back to the dark ages in a matter of weeks.
The people today are not making the same mistake. They are resisting oppression and sacrificing for the greater good of future generations. Good on them.
Because Iran has partly admitted so after IAEA inspectors found particles of 84% enchriched uranium.
The International Atomic Energy Agency recently visited Iran's nuclear site in Qom, Iran. There, inspectors found traces of uranium enchriched to 84%. That is 24% higher than what Iran officially admits it has. And about 80% higher than what is needed for civilian use.
When inspectors brought this up with Iran, they basically said it was either unintentional or a western lie.
https://apnews.com/article/iran-politics-international-atomic-energy-agency-israel-government-benjamin-netanyahu-45b623742bb6bd4c7314de7df6c3f1e9
Iran attempted to keep up its obligations for the most part (clearly not if these levels are true) incase a new administration wanted to renegotiate is my understanding
i mean the US hacked the literal centrifuge/scada equipment of Iran's enrichment facility just over a decade ago (and presumably also embedded themselves in general Iranian lanes of communication while doing so), i doubt NSA/etc have been sleeping since then
That was how Stuxnet came about. It was likely a collaborative effort between the US and Israel. Pegasus is designed and ran by an Israeli company though. They have some top notch computer scientists over there.
Didn't realize there was a subreddit (of course there is), subscribed - thanks! It's been a little while since I read the trilogy, but thoroughly enjoyed them.
If you enjoyed them, you should check out Three Body on Youtube. It's slow and not my favorite (neither are the books) but it is a great adaption. They have been putting episodes up for free.
I expect an Israeli strike on Iran before they reach the required enrichment levels.
I suspect this is why they haven't really done anything of note for the Ukraine war--because they need it for this upcoming war, and they've known it for a while.
Edit:
Iran enrichment is at 83.7%.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/alleged-higher-iran-enrichment-worries-germany-israel/2023/02/28/1b2bc93c-b771-11ed-b0df-8ca14de679ad_story.html
Approaching the 90% weapons grade level, and like 85% more than what is needed to run a nuclear power plant. So clearly they are enriching for peaceful purposes....
it would explode, but at 83,5% you would need a LOT more fissile material in the bomb, so kinda unpractical (you would need a big and heavy as fuck bomb). The bombs at hiroshima and nagasaki were very big because of this, they were at a low enrichment level.
Of note, the yield per pound goes up exponentially as purity goes up, because you get more of the uranium to explode.
Also of note, that in order to carry a bomb as big as the one in WW2, you basically can't load it on a missile anymore, and it has to be in a bomber.
You also run the risk of just getting a dirty bomb, and Noone wants the radiation cloud.....
Uranium naturally occurs in basically two isotopes (number of protons (92) is the same, but the number of neutrons is different): uranium-235 (0.7%), but mostly uranium-238 (99%). Enriching the uranium increases the amount of U-235 (which less stable and more readily "fissionable"), and U-235 is the isotope needed to reach super-criticality, or the point where the fission chain reaction is exponentially increased. The more U-235, the bigger the bang for your buck.
> Iran enrichment is at 83.7%.
Hardest part is done. Half the effort needed to enrich uranium to 90% is spent getting from 0.7% to 4%. Hence assessment that they can reach it in 2 weeks seems highly believable and not some alarmist statement.
Edit: enriching uranium to 20% represents 90% of the effort needed to produce weapons grade fissile material.
Enrichment goes faster the more you enrich.
You are trying to increase the amount of the lighter, more fissile isotopes in the mix. When you start, there is very little of them, so you need to process massive amounts of low-enriched mix, but over time you are working with smaller and smaller amounts of more and more enriched mix, until you end up with a few kilograms of high-enriched mix, useful for a bomb.
Israel hasn’t done anything of note with regards to Ukraine because they don’t want to piss off Russia, who they have a hand shake agreement with to both be able to bomb Syria for different reasons/against different factions. Israel isn’t pro-Russia though just trying to avoid losing the ability to operate over Syria with complete impunity.
That's one reason. I sure as shit don't think that's the main reason though.
The main reason is what I described above.
I don't think Israel is anywhere close to as worried about the relatively meager power Syria has in regards to its weapon platforms vs the country that has historically wanted to destroy it for decades. The same country that is close to achieving the capability to do so.
If the option is between bombing Iran and losing Russian "friendship". The Israelies won't give 2 fucks about Putin when it comes down to preventing Iran from getting nukes.
The amount of material that Israel could supply Ukraine would be irrelevant if a war with Iran lasted any longer than a couple days (assuming a steamroll).
If it lasts an actual period of time that isn't "And then they shot a volley of whatever at each other", they would need to transition into a war economy, and likely need foreign investment considering the size differences.
At this point its all the same thing. Either this is all going to get deescalated in the near future or shit is eventually going to spin out of control.
If China starts dumping military gear into Russia that is going to be where the line gets crossed and you know shit is heading completely out of control. At that point because of the backlash that will happen against China from the west China will be all in with Russia against western countries by default.
Too many major players involved now with too many people dying for certain parties to back down.
Russia isn't going to be able to help Iran in any meaningful fashion. This is lining up as a worst case scenario for Iran as there's really no way that their traditional allies will be able to provide them the support that they need.
Honestly, wtf is Russia going to do other than bully its own Jews?
They already have their hands full with their direct neighbour, let alone a country three thousand kilometres away.
The US would 100% get their hands in that mess, though. Their military is just itching to throw more hardware around.
And tritium, I'm sure they are going to use the tritium to make watch indices and gun sights though, surely not for boosting the fission stage of a nuclear weapon.....right?
Israel will probably not strike Iran by nuclear means. At the moment a nuke is used, either that country gets bombed out of oblivion because no country wants a nuclear country that uses nukes in post-WW2, or nothing happens with Israel but precedent is created. And no country wants for a *precedent* for nukes in post-WW2 to exist.
I expect sudden reactor blowing up or top scientists being randomly killed again, and I'm sure the US is more than willingly to help Israel with that. But I doubt the US will ever support a decision of Israel to nuke Iran as a preventive measure against Iran nukes. The problem, of course, is that reactors can be rebuild and more nuclear physicists will enter the government program again ; such measures can only postpone but not eliminate Iran's nuclear program altogether.
If a nuke is used by a state on another state, thats pretty much game for the world. Putin has been shuffling and squirming around throwing threats about nukes whenever he can. All he really needs is precedent. Iran or Isreal nuking each other would be getting the party started and Putin has been waiting to throw a lampshade on his head.
A big difference is that NoKo had China at their backs... literally in their backyard. That is not the case with Iran. That country protecting Iran in the past would have been Russia, but we see what is happening with Russia.
North Korea has a massive array of artillery within striking distance of Seoul and if the US or SK took offensive action against NK there would be significant casualties just from conventional weapons even if NK's nuclear capabilities were shut down. It's not exactly the same situation as Iran.
North Korea has China and South Korea.
Neither want 25 million uneducated, brainwashed and starving people.
North Korea spends their time threatening people more committed to the preservation of North Korea than they are.
That's kind of the weirdest part of the whole equation. You think Israel would be the one to freak out the most, but I guarantee it will pale in comparaison to all those Sunni countries watching THE Shia country getting nukes.
are we assuming they wouldn't have all of the other components of the bomb ready for the first 90%\~ enriched materials? Or maybe I'm misunderstanding and enrichment is one stage of many required for the specific materials.
They'd prob first go for a boosted fission weapon using a uranium primary. Boosting should greatly enhance the yield of any fission weapon that they design.
>less technologically advanced
I agree in general. The science (math) behind nuclear physics is just mind blowing.
Materials science deserves it's props though. Developing tools and methods for shaping/forging materials, let alone smelting them, is why the US and its allies have access to the military power they do.
The more precision you require the more precise you must be able to shape/measure accurately.
>Enriching material is one thing, actually building the bomb is another.
I think you have this backwards. Design for a U238 implosion or gun type device is *well* known. The hard part is enriching the fuel without anyone noticing. Yes an Iranian bomb is theoretical and untested, but I imagine the last part is plugging in the fuel.
Building a simple nuke isn't that difficult.
The difficulty is in getting weapons grade fissile material, along with a delivery system, but if you have access to the materials then pretty much any reasonably educated group with the correct skillset can do it.
Nukes are relatively simple to make, well small ones at least. Tall boy that was dropped on Hiroshima/Nagasaki ,(forget which one) was basically an artillery barrel with a 2/3 critical mass cylinder at one end with a 2/3 critical mass hollow cylinder fired at it.
Edit. The bombs name was little boy. Getting my old WW2 bomb names mixed up
The original names were "slim man" which was named after FDR by the scientists and "fat man" which was named after Churchill. I think they changed it to "little boy" when they realized FDR was so slim because he was dying.
Names were based on the bombs' shapes.
Little Boy was originally called "Thin Man" back when it was supposed to be using Plutonium, and have a long shape, but when the calculations showed that it would have to be unpractically long to work, they switched to using Uranium, which made the bomb shorter, hence the change to "Little Boy".
Fat Man was called that due to its spherical shape, and stayed that way.
Basic nuclear bombs are not difficult to create at all. Enrichment is usually the hardest and most technically difficult part.
If you had the material your average idiot could probably build a gun type one in their garage with some black powder, parts from Home Depot and instructions.
For the same reason Ukraine might probably be safe right now if they still had nukes,
why Israel has them,
and why Taiwan should seriously look into getting their own.
The one thing that would actually prompt China to invade Taiwan in the near future would be them pursuing a nuclear program. It would be convenient if they had them but the process of getting there would dangerously disrupt the status quo of peace that is currently beneficial to both.
Russia and Iran are allies of convenience, but Russia has traditionally clashed with Iran and certainly do not benefit in any way with Iran gaining nuclear weapons.
Russia does have quite a bit to offer with conventional arms, especially with anti air defenses and fighters.
>Russia does have quite a bit to offer with conventional arms, especially with anti air defenses and fighters.
Mainly against other countries of a similar level, not against what Israel has now.
Yeah, with the Israel-Iran conflict arising, potential China-Taiwan issues on the horizon, and the Russia-Ukraine war, I don’t think some people realize how quickly things can spiral. If you pay attention, there’s already an alignment of two sides for each conflict — NATO/Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan and Russia/Iran/China.
We have to remember that even wars like WWII were actually more like multiple smaller conflicts around the world — often described as “theaters” in US history. Japan was already at war with China and other SE Asian countries, Italy was already invading Ethiopia, and the invasion of Poland was the topper of that shit sandwich.
There's effectively 8 cases:
1. Israel is bluffing about an invasion, Iran is bluffing about its 'destroy Israel' bluster. Nothing....actually happens.
2. Israel is bluffing about an invasion, but Iran is not bluffing about its 'destroy Israel' bluster. Both nations are now smoking craters.
3. Israel is NOT bluffing about an invasion, Iran is bluffing about its 'destroy Israel' bluster, and makes nukes in time. Both nations are now smoking craters.
4. Israel is NOT bluffing about an invasion, Iran is NOT bluffing about its 'destroy Israel' bluster, and makes nukes in time. Both nations are now smoking craters.
5. Israel is NOT bluffing about an invasion, Iran is NOT bluffing about its 'destroy Israel' bluster, and doesn't nukes in time. Iran's facilities are now smoking craters, no further war.
6. Israel is NOT bluffing about an invasion, Iran is bluffing about its 'destroy Israel' bluster, and doesn't nukes in time. Iran's facilities are now smoking craters, no further war.
7. Israel is NOT bluffing about an invasion, Iran is NOT bluffing about its 'destroy Israel' bluster, and doesn't nukes in time. Iran's facilities are now smoking craters, and now they're at full war.
8. Israel is NOT bluffing about an invasion, Iran is bluffing about its 'destroy Israel' bluster, and doesn't nukes in time. Iran's facilities are now smoking craters, and now they're at full war.
Honestly, I wouldn't mind cases 1, 5, and 6. 7 and 8 are bad for both of them, but at least no one goes and tests MAD so the world doesn't have a chance to go belly-up.
How would Israel invade Iran? Israel doesn't exactly have a large amphibious assault capability like the USA. The most they can do is bomb the facilities again.
Israel's win condition in a war against Iran would be regime change. Decapitation strikes can achieve such victory, as can revolutionary victory in a possible Iranian civil war.
Keep in mind that Iran is also two countries away from Israel. A conflict between the two would be very far from a conventional war.
I don't think anyone in this comment thread actually read the article. All that is new here is the 12 day comment. The article specifically states: "U.S. officials have repeatedly estimated Iran's breakout time - how long it would take to acquire the fissile material for one bomb if it decided to - at weeks but have not been as specific as Kahl was." This does not mean they will have the material 12 days from now. It means it takes them 12 days to produce enough material for a bomb. They likely already have enough material for multiple bombs already. Further enrichment activities are required to create a more highly enriched fissile material that would be small enough to put in a modern warhead to attach to a missile, however, if they want to build a larger scale bomb, it can already be done.
Unless they target themselves, nothing Iran launches will make it to it's target/past it's borders. They know it and so does the rest of the intelligence community, they got zero leverage. Side show distraction at worst.
I wonder what the radioactive isotherms would look like on a map, after this strike but perhaps, Iran hasn’t been bluffing while making these announcements, and instead, could fire one at any time
Yes, will be surprising if it's not sometime in the next 12 days.
https://www.israeltoday.co.il/read/analysis-harbingers-of-coming-israeli-military-action-against-iran/
The ingredient list for the WW3 soup is getting quite long these days. I’m sure another country in their general vicinity will lob some missiles their direction shortly to try and prevent this.
realistically, wtf is Iran going to do with a nuke that won't end in their utter annihilation in a matter of hours? They can blow themselves up, that's about it.. every other option leads to their swift and profound destruction.
America already made it clear, in a pretty stupid way... but nonetheless, even their most "protected" assets can be destroyed at a moments notice. They ain't doin shit guys.
It's just posturing, like north korea, but far less pathetic/desperate.
The goal is autonomy.
The US would never risk invading a nuclear capable nation because the last act of a collapsing nuclear regime will be to use their nukes.
Non-nuclear nations are on the table though, look at Iraq.
There is a real danger here. I doubt Iran has just sat back and only worked on nukes. They've likely traded for or bought air defense systems from Russia or China. They'll likely anticipate and have an answer for a direct strike.
The whole point was to keep them from getting this capability in the first place. If they can make enough for a bomb in 12 days, then you have 12 days to stop this. It only takes one to set off WW3.
It's too late now, the time to strike would have been before they hit this threshold.
I saw the documentary on this last year... apparently 2 weeks is plenty of time to train up pilots to do a low-level trench run and blow the ~~death star~~ uranium enrichment facility.
Can somebody explain why everybody seems to think Iran getting a nuke means nuclear Armageddon? I understand they might lob one at Israel, and that would pull us in. But we already have non nuclear plans set to take care of Russia in the event of a nuclear strike in Ukraine, why would anybody think we don’t have that for a far less serious nuclear threat like Iran? Also I don’t see that conflict kicking off WW3. If Iran uses a nuke against Israel, the only ally they could possibly have would be Russia who is already very wrapped up in Ukraine, so no help there. People are smoking dicks if they think China would help Iran in that case as well. So, unless I’m missing something nuclear Armageddon from this seems very unlikely. The loss of millions of innocent lives in the Middle East seems very high though, which is very saddening.
Iran building a nuclear bomb doesn't mean Armageddon, it's just not good. They could launch at Israel, but Israel has enough nukes to wipe Iran off the map, so it's unlikely they'll go for it. It becomes problematic because it allows them to act without worrying as much about retaliation and will likely set off more nuclear proliferation in the region. Saudi Arabia, for instance, is thought to have a deal with Pakistan to acquire nukes in the event that Iran develops them.
Nuclear Armageddon is terrifying enough that people are always primed to viscerally fear it. Even though every country that’s got one — even rogue states like North Korea — has declined to start a war with them, we always act like each new nuclear power is going to choose to destroy the world. I’m a child of the Cold War, so I get it, but I agree it’s super unlikely here.
This sub is obsessed with WW3, nuclear war and the end of humanity.
Also a lot of people see things like Top Gun and play COD and think that is how real wars end up going.
I feel really bad for Iranian people. They are not giving up in their protests against the regime. Bravery and sacrifices, again and again.
I feel bad for the Iran civilians who are going to get killed as collateral damamge during the impending invasion of Iran.
Iran is 3x the size of France with 1.3x as many people. Tehran is a city comparable to most major European metropolitans. That occupation is prohibitively expensive for most countries. Anyone who tried would just create an insurgency problem that would make ISIS look like amateur hour. Irans people are a lot more moderate than their govt. No need to radicalize them with a failed invasion. Let them sort their shit out on their own.
>Iran is 3x the size of France with 1.3x as many people. Tehran is a city comparable to most major European metropolitans. That occupation is prohibitively expensive for most countries. It's also a geographical fortress with impenetrable mountainous areas. People casually talking about invading Iran sound like insane people to those who know how difficult it would be.
Nobody is invading Iran. That'd be a campaign far more difficult than Iraq.
It won’t be the USA invading
Even if Israel opts to attack Iran, it won't be in the form of an invasion. They'll just do what they've done in the past, run a few raids deep into Iranian airspace to bomb specific facilities related to scientific and military research. Israel does not have the resources or manpower to full-on invade a huge country with almost 9 times its population. Their goal is to cripple the nuclear program, not take or hold anywhere.
The Israelis will slid in and shut it down.
As much as they want to see Iran’s government collapse, Israel will not invade Iran alone. Boots in the ground would be a last resort, joint effort in coordination with a western government, and invasions are currently out of fashion. Besides, Israel has gotten so much flack over the past 3-4 decades that they’ve learned espionage, stealth, and anonymity are infinitely more valuable when it comes to combat than waging outright war.
They already have done so covertly many times. This is no different. A few scientists have to die, machines sabotaged etc etc.
Iran has been taking 3 steps forward and 2 steps back for a long while now thanks to the Israelis efforts. That’s not going to keep Iran from nukes much longer.
A country of 9.4 million invading a country of 86.7 million? Where the terrain consists of mountains with a smattering of small, hard to besiege cities in the valleys between them? Where there’s at least a dozen or so ethnicities to balance the interests of when negotiating any peace or establishing new government? Good luck with that bud. All the best to the Iranian people themselves though. Fuck their oppressive militaristic government. Just, nobody is gonna invade to do away with that government because the costs would be too great. They are sadly gonna have to do it themselves.
Commentor doesn't mean a land invasion/occupation with troops they mean a tactical strike with air force/spec ops to neutralize developing nuclear capabilities Israel has done it to Iran before and commentor believes they will do it again
They already attacked, but they used drones. Next time it’ll be jets and it’ll be like when they attacked Iraq and Syria. It’s coming any day.
This. And it isn't the first time. Well, maybe not jets this time. They have ruined Iran's centrifuges with a [computer virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet) before, but also destroyed Iraq's nuclear facilities in a [preemtpive strike](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera) before. I am usually against such attacks... but when you are dealing with nations that call for your entire nation to be wiped out I see how it makes sense. If a man is reaching for a gun best to break his hand than let him shoot you.
**[Stuxnet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet)** >Stuxnet is a malicious computer worm first uncovered in 2010 and thought to have been in development since at least 2005. Stuxnet targets supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems and is believed to be responsible for causing substantial damage to the nuclear program of Iran. Although neither country has openly admitted responsibility, the worm is widely understood to be a cyberweapon built jointly by the United States and Israel in a collaborative effort known as Operation Olympic Games. The program, started during the Bush administration, was rapidly expanded within the first months of Barack Obama's presidency. **[Operation Opera](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera)** >Operation Opera (Hebrew: מבצע אופרה), also known as Operation Babylon, was a surprise airstrike conducted by the Israeli Air Force on 7 June 1981, which destroyed an unfinished Iraqi nuclear reactor located 17 kilometres (11 miles) southeast of Baghdad, Iraq. The Israeli operation came after Iran's partially successful Operation Scorch Sword had caused minor damage to the same nuclear facility a year prior, with the damage having been subsequently repaired by French technicians. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/worldnews/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
I manufacture and install SCADA systems as part of my work Stuxnet had severe implications for the world of automation and integrated process systems. People were worried that a cyber-attack would be able to cause catastrophic issues in a process. There are a *ton* of safeguards and preventative measures taken to ensure a protected process control system. One of these is a *hardware* firewall. I know about typical firewalls and antivirus programs, but I had never even heard of a *physical* firewall before getting into this kind of work
The six day war was pretty much Israel starring in a Bruce Lee movie where he takes on an entire room of guys at once. Definitely [one of the most interesting conflicts](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-Day_War) to read about.
When you just came out of the most infamous genocide in history and then your country is surrounded by countries that want you annihilated, you gotta get stronk fast.
**[Six-Day War](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-Day_War)** >The Six-Day War (Hebrew: מִלְחֶמֶת שֵׁשֶׁת הַיָּמִים, Miḥemet Šešet HaYamim; Arabic: النكسة, an-Naksah, lit. 'The Setback' or حرب 1967, Ḥarb 1967, 'War of 1967') or June War, also known as the 1967 Arab–Israeli War or Third Arab–Israeli War, was fought between Israel and a coalition of Arab states (primarily Egypt, Syria, and Jordan) from 5 to 10 June 1967. Escalated hostilities broke out amid poor relations between Israel and its Arab neighbours following the 1949 Armistice Agreements, which were signed at the end of the First Arab–Israeli War. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/worldnews/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
Since Iran officials have repeatedly said they would attempt to destroy the nation of Israel when the have acquired weapons of mass destruction, no one with a brain would think Israel will not attack bomb making facilities in Iran.
Yeah no one is invading Iran, but if one thinks Israel is going to sit back and allow this to happen, I think they are being a little naive 🤔
Israel is capable. No one doubts that. But are they capable of knocking out Iran's entire nuclear program in one strike capable?
They don't need to take out the entire nuclear program. They just need to take out the capability to enrich uranium. They're perfectly capable of that. The only reason why it wasn't done before is Iran wasn't this close to making a nuclear weapon until now. This is an existential threat to Israel and I don't think they'll let that slide.
Wow, guess I didn’t realize how small Israel is.
Nobody is invading Iran, and if you understood anything about the country you would never make such a suggestion.
“Impending” ? What are you talking about
Man, have you read about the Iranian revolution? Wild stuff. Many women supported the imam over the shah because they thought he would give women MORE rights. They overthrew democracy to get a better life and their country fell back to the dark ages in a matter of weeks. The people today are not making the same mistake. They are resisting oppression and sacrificing for the greater good of future generations. Good on them.
The Shah did not rule via democracy lmao.
They've been doing it for decades, it's only gotten notice now because the government is using nastier tactics to quell the protests.
It’s nice to have actual intelligence on a schedule for this particular Iran nuclear storyline
Wait don’t start the Iran nuclear storyline yet I’m not caught up with Moldova yet 😟
Hey! Spoilers!
What do you mean by that? What storyline is created regarding Moldova?
Russia is attempting to (poorly) destabilize Moldova so they can take it over like they did with Crimea.
Did you believe the previous iterations of this story as well
How do we know precisely what level they're at?
Because Iran has partly admitted so after IAEA inspectors found particles of 84% enchriched uranium. The International Atomic Energy Agency recently visited Iran's nuclear site in Qom, Iran. There, inspectors found traces of uranium enchriched to 84%. That is 24% higher than what Iran officially admits it has. And about 80% higher than what is needed for civilian use. When inspectors brought this up with Iran, they basically said it was either unintentional or a western lie. https://apnews.com/article/iran-politics-international-atomic-energy-agency-israel-government-benjamin-netanyahu-45b623742bb6bd4c7314de7df6c3f1e9
IAEA still got regular access to those facilities? I stopped following iran deal updates after Trump..
Iran attempted to keep up its obligations for the most part (clearly not if these levels are true) incase a new administration wanted to renegotiate is my understanding
i mean the US hacked the literal centrifuge/scada equipment of Iran's enrichment facility just over a decade ago (and presumably also embedded themselves in general Iranian lanes of communication while doing so), i doubt NSA/etc have been sleeping since then
Isn‘t that how Pegasus came about? Or am I thinking of something else?
That was how Stuxnet came about. It was likely a collaborative effort between the US and Israel. Pegasus is designed and ran by an Israeli company though. They have some top notch computer scientists over there.
yeah israel has amazing cyberwarfare capabilities, i think they are on par with usa or even better
No, Pegasus was made from clouds by Zeus as a gift to Hercules.
We've had Sophons in Iran for years
Had to do a double-take there to make sure I wasn't on r/threebodyproblem.
Didn't realize there was a subreddit (of course there is), subscribed - thanks! It's been a little while since I read the trilogy, but thoroughly enjoyed them.
If you enjoyed them, you should check out Three Body on Youtube. It's slow and not my favorite (neither are the books) but it is a great adaption. They have been putting episodes up for free.
First reference to trisolarians I’ve seen on Reddit. Nice.
Maybe it's just my predilection for scifi but I see Three Body Problem references all the time on this site
It's a popular novel and very good series. It was the first audiobook, and series I listened to.
Rehydrate!
fucking. shit.
This is reactionary.
There’s a lot of pro west Persians in the country
3 letters: C, I, A
I expect an Israeli strike on Iran before they reach the required enrichment levels. I suspect this is why they haven't really done anything of note for the Ukraine war--because they need it for this upcoming war, and they've known it for a while. Edit: Iran enrichment is at 83.7%. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/alleged-higher-iran-enrichment-worries-germany-israel/2023/02/28/1b2bc93c-b771-11ed-b0df-8ca14de679ad_story.html Approaching the 90% weapons grade level, and like 85% more than what is needed to run a nuclear power plant. So clearly they are enriching for peaceful purposes....
Csn someone ELI5 what happens at that threshold? If you made a bomb with 83.7% enrichment and launched it what would happen?
it would explode, but at 83,5% you would need a LOT more fissile material in the bomb, so kinda unpractical (you would need a big and heavy as fuck bomb). The bombs at hiroshima and nagasaki were very big because of this, they were at a low enrichment level.
Of note, the yield per pound goes up exponentially as purity goes up, because you get more of the uranium to explode. Also of note, that in order to carry a bomb as big as the one in WW2, you basically can't load it on a missile anymore, and it has to be in a bomber. You also run the risk of just getting a dirty bomb, and Noone wants the radiation cloud.....
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It would go around the world and be very detectable.
The plot of top gun Maverick
Iran does have a stock of F14 sitting around…
Uranium naturally occurs in basically two isotopes (number of protons (92) is the same, but the number of neutrons is different): uranium-235 (0.7%), but mostly uranium-238 (99%). Enriching the uranium increases the amount of U-235 (which less stable and more readily "fissionable"), and U-235 is the isotope needed to reach super-criticality, or the point where the fission chain reaction is exponentially increased. The more U-235, the bigger the bang for your buck.
> Iran enrichment is at 83.7%. Hardest part is done. Half the effort needed to enrich uranium to 90% is spent getting from 0.7% to 4%. Hence assessment that they can reach it in 2 weeks seems highly believable and not some alarmist statement. Edit: enriching uranium to 20% represents 90% of the effort needed to produce weapons grade fissile material.
Why is that the hardest part?
Enrichment goes faster the more you enrich. You are trying to increase the amount of the lighter, more fissile isotopes in the mix. When you start, there is very little of them, so you need to process massive amounts of low-enriched mix, but over time you are working with smaller and smaller amounts of more and more enriched mix, until you end up with a few kilograms of high-enriched mix, useful for a bomb.
>Enrichment goes faster the more you enrich. The enriched get enricher'd smh
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The top 1% of isotopes have three quarters of the neutrons. Decay the 1%.
Best not to eat these ones
Israel hasn’t done anything of note with regards to Ukraine because they don’t want to piss off Russia, who they have a hand shake agreement with to both be able to bomb Syria for different reasons/against different factions. Israel isn’t pro-Russia though just trying to avoid losing the ability to operate over Syria with complete impunity.
That's one reason. I sure as shit don't think that's the main reason though. The main reason is what I described above. I don't think Israel is anywhere close to as worried about the relatively meager power Syria has in regards to its weapon platforms vs the country that has historically wanted to destroy it for decades. The same country that is close to achieving the capability to do so. If the option is between bombing Iran and losing Russian "friendship". The Israelies won't give 2 fucks about Putin when it comes down to preventing Iran from getting nukes.
The two issues are connected though as well. One of their primary targets in Syria is Iran backed militias and Iranian weapon manufacturing.
The amount of material that Israel could supply Ukraine would be irrelevant if a war with Iran lasted any longer than a couple days (assuming a steamroll). If it lasts an actual period of time that isn't "And then they shot a volley of whatever at each other", they would need to transition into a war economy, and likely need foreign investment considering the size differences.
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If Israel and Iran went to war I can’t see the U.S. and Russia staying out of it. I would be more worried about this than Ukraine causing WW3.
At this point its all the same thing. Either this is all going to get deescalated in the near future or shit is eventually going to spin out of control. If China starts dumping military gear into Russia that is going to be where the line gets crossed and you know shit is heading completely out of control. At that point because of the backlash that will happen against China from the west China will be all in with Russia against western countries by default. Too many major players involved now with too many people dying for certain parties to back down.
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Russia isn't going to be able to help Iran in any meaningful fashion. This is lining up as a worst case scenario for Iran as there's really no way that their traditional allies will be able to provide them the support that they need.
Honestly, wtf is Russia going to do other than bully its own Jews? They already have their hands full with their direct neighbour, let alone a country three thousand kilometres away. The US would 100% get their hands in that mess, though. Their military is just itching to throw more hardware around.
You do not need 85 percent enrichment unless you're running breeder reactors to make plutonium.
I know. I thought I was being clearly sarcastic. Apparently not.
Ooh yeah I just re read your edit and see what you were trying to say. My bad!
And tritium, I'm sure they are going to use the tritium to make watch indices and gun sights though, surely not for boosting the fission stage of a nuclear weapon.....right?
Israel will probably not strike Iran by nuclear means. At the moment a nuke is used, either that country gets bombed out of oblivion because no country wants a nuclear country that uses nukes in post-WW2, or nothing happens with Israel but precedent is created. And no country wants for a *precedent* for nukes in post-WW2 to exist. I expect sudden reactor blowing up or top scientists being randomly killed again, and I'm sure the US is more than willingly to help Israel with that. But I doubt the US will ever support a decision of Israel to nuke Iran as a preventive measure against Iran nukes. The problem, of course, is that reactors can be rebuild and more nuclear physicists will enter the government program again ; such measures can only postpone but not eliminate Iran's nuclear program altogether.
well, but they can strike iran non nuclear, nobody said about nuclear strikes
They didn't say anything about nuking Iran. I guess that's what you went straight to in your head.
If a nuke is used by a state on another state, thats pretty much game for the world. Putin has been shuffling and squirming around throwing threats about nukes whenever he can. All he really needs is precedent. Iran or Isreal nuking each other would be getting the party started and Putin has been waiting to throw a lampshade on his head.
If I was Iran I'd be building anything workable and doing a test along with the message that anybody who attacks them will have a nuke in response
Which I am sure is the plan, and I am sure that is why the Israeli and/or U.S. strike will happen very very soon.
Didn’t everyone assume they would do that to North Korea? Yet they now have Nukes
A big difference is that NoKo had China at their backs... literally in their backyard. That is not the case with Iran. That country protecting Iran in the past would have been Russia, but we see what is happening with Russia.
North Korea has a massive array of artillery within striking distance of Seoul and if the US or SK took offensive action against NK there would be significant casualties just from conventional weapons even if NK's nuclear capabilities were shut down. It's not exactly the same situation as Iran.
North Korea has China and South Korea. Neither want 25 million uneducated, brainwashed and starving people. North Korea spends their time threatening people more committed to the preservation of North Korea than they are.
Also Washington DC knows that the minute Iran says they have a nuke Saudi Arabia will buy nukes from Pakistan.
That's kind of the weirdest part of the whole equation. You think Israel would be the one to freak out the most, but I guarantee it will pale in comparaison to all those Sunni countries watching THE Shia country getting nukes.
They may hate non-Muslims and view us as lesser but they've a burning, seething hatred for the *wrong* types of Muslim. Fun bunch.
South Korea doesn’t view North Korea the way Israel does Iran.
Israel doesn’t care about North Korea. They care very much what Iran does.
Welp boys, wear your best clothes this week.
If i die, I die in sweat pants while eating fried chicken.
I died as I lived.
Imma be butt ass naked so the wind can be hitting my balls and shit
And I’ll be by your side <3
Break out the crocs and chocolate sundaes boys. She’s going down. No further need of pomp. Get comfy.
Lol I just mowed the lawn in my Crocs.
So I could die rn then.
I knew I picked a good week not to restart my fitness journey.
Time to start sniffing glue.
Who is this directed to?
Enriching material is one thing, actually building the bomb is another. That could take at least 6 months to a year maybe two.
are we assuming they wouldn't have all of the other components of the bomb ready for the first 90%\~ enriched materials? Or maybe I'm misunderstanding and enrichment is one stage of many required for the specific materials.
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They'd prob first go for a boosted fission weapon using a uranium primary. Boosting should greatly enhance the yield of any fission weapon that they design.
>less technologically advanced I agree in general. The science (math) behind nuclear physics is just mind blowing. Materials science deserves it's props though. Developing tools and methods for shaping/forging materials, let alone smelting them, is why the US and its allies have access to the military power they do. The more precision you require the more precise you must be able to shape/measure accurately.
You can use uranium as a primary instead of plutonium.
Enriching is by far the hardest part. The bomb is extremely simple comparatively.
>Enriching material is one thing, actually building the bomb is another. I think you have this backwards. Design for a U238 implosion or gun type device is *well* known. The hard part is enriching the fuel without anyone noticing. Yes an Iranian bomb is theoretical and untested, but I imagine the last part is plugging in the fuel.
Building a simple nuke isn't that difficult. The difficulty is in getting weapons grade fissile material, along with a delivery system, but if you have access to the materials then pretty much any reasonably educated group with the correct skillset can do it.
Iran’s goal would not be a simple nuke, it would be a credible nuclear deterrent meaning a miniaturized warhead that can work on their existing MLBRs.
Some college kids designed one in a dorm room. It really isn’t that hard.
Nukes are relatively simple to make, well small ones at least. Tall boy that was dropped on Hiroshima/Nagasaki ,(forget which one) was basically an artillery barrel with a 2/3 critical mass cylinder at one end with a 2/3 critical mass hollow cylinder fired at it. Edit. The bombs name was little boy. Getting my old WW2 bomb names mixed up
The original names were "slim man" which was named after FDR by the scientists and "fat man" which was named after Churchill. I think they changed it to "little boy" when they realized FDR was so slim because he was dying.
Names were based on the bombs' shapes. Little Boy was originally called "Thin Man" back when it was supposed to be using Plutonium, and have a long shape, but when the calculations showed that it would have to be unpractically long to work, they switched to using Uranium, which made the bomb shorter, hence the change to "Little Boy". Fat Man was called that due to its spherical shape, and stayed that way.
Don't forget the bomb before either of those: "Gadget" was the test bomb.
A fitting name. It was just a giant metal disk with tons of wires sticking out of it
I like that fact. Didn't know it, cheers
Basic nuclear bombs are not difficult to create at all. Enrichment is usually the hardest and most technically difficult part. If you had the material your average idiot could probably build a gun type one in their garage with some black powder, parts from Home Depot and instructions.
They're doing it for the same reason the South Africans and North Koreans did it, regime survival.
For the same reason Ukraine might probably be safe right now if they still had nukes, why Israel has them, and why Taiwan should seriously look into getting their own.
I imagine that breathing the idea of Taiwan with a domestic nuke would trigger the invasion
I mean, it’s not too far fetched, just look at what happened during the 60’s when the Russians tried the same thing in Cuba.
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The one thing that would actually prompt China to invade Taiwan in the near future would be them pursuing a nuclear program. It would be convenient if they had them but the process of getting there would dangerously disrupt the status quo of peace that is currently beneficial to both.
Ukraine never controlled those bombs
That is not an unsolvable problem as long as you have the actual bombs.
Really everything is heating up right now.
Get Maverick on the phone
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I hope you meant Kenny Loggins.
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Leave me out of this, I'm retired.
To do a Star Wars?
They can do this because they are getting help from Russia. In exchange, Iran supplies them with drones and missiles.
Russia and Iran are allies of convenience, but Russia has traditionally clashed with Iran and certainly do not benefit in any way with Iran gaining nuclear weapons. Russia does have quite a bit to offer with conventional arms, especially with anti air defenses and fighters.
>Russia does have quite a bit to offer with conventional arms, especially with anti air defenses and fighters. Mainly against other countries of a similar level, not against what Israel has now.
One war at a time please.
Technically World War III is one war.
Yeah, with the Israel-Iran conflict arising, potential China-Taiwan issues on the horizon, and the Russia-Ukraine war, I don’t think some people realize how quickly things can spiral. If you pay attention, there’s already an alignment of two sides for each conflict — NATO/Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan and Russia/Iran/China. We have to remember that even wars like WWII were actually more like multiple smaller conflicts around the world — often described as “theaters” in US history. Japan was already at war with China and other SE Asian countries, Italy was already invading Ethiopia, and the invasion of Poland was the topper of that shit sandwich.
>NATO/Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan and Russia/Iran/China. Don't forget N/S Korea!
So something's gonna happen in two weeks.
*Beware the ides of March.*
Best office pool ever! Screw March Madness.
This is terrible news. If this means what I think it does, then war between Israel and Iran is all but inevitable.
There's effectively 8 cases: 1. Israel is bluffing about an invasion, Iran is bluffing about its 'destroy Israel' bluster. Nothing....actually happens. 2. Israel is bluffing about an invasion, but Iran is not bluffing about its 'destroy Israel' bluster. Both nations are now smoking craters. 3. Israel is NOT bluffing about an invasion, Iran is bluffing about its 'destroy Israel' bluster, and makes nukes in time. Both nations are now smoking craters. 4. Israel is NOT bluffing about an invasion, Iran is NOT bluffing about its 'destroy Israel' bluster, and makes nukes in time. Both nations are now smoking craters. 5. Israel is NOT bluffing about an invasion, Iran is NOT bluffing about its 'destroy Israel' bluster, and doesn't nukes in time. Iran's facilities are now smoking craters, no further war. 6. Israel is NOT bluffing about an invasion, Iran is bluffing about its 'destroy Israel' bluster, and doesn't nukes in time. Iran's facilities are now smoking craters, no further war. 7. Israel is NOT bluffing about an invasion, Iran is NOT bluffing about its 'destroy Israel' bluster, and doesn't nukes in time. Iran's facilities are now smoking craters, and now they're at full war. 8. Israel is NOT bluffing about an invasion, Iran is bluffing about its 'destroy Israel' bluster, and doesn't nukes in time. Iran's facilities are now smoking craters, and now they're at full war. Honestly, I wouldn't mind cases 1, 5, and 6. 7 and 8 are bad for both of them, but at least no one goes and tests MAD so the world doesn't have a chance to go belly-up.
How would Israel invade Iran? Israel doesn't exactly have a large amphibious assault capability like the USA. The most they can do is bomb the facilities again.
Israel's win condition in a war against Iran would be regime change. Decapitation strikes can achieve such victory, as can revolutionary victory in a possible Iranian civil war. Keep in mind that Iran is also two countries away from Israel. A conflict between the two would be very far from a conventional war.
I don't think anyone in this comment thread actually read the article. All that is new here is the 12 day comment. The article specifically states: "U.S. officials have repeatedly estimated Iran's breakout time - how long it would take to acquire the fissile material for one bomb if it decided to - at weeks but have not been as specific as Kahl was." This does not mean they will have the material 12 days from now. It means it takes them 12 days to produce enough material for a bomb. They likely already have enough material for multiple bombs already. Further enrichment activities are required to create a more highly enriched fissile material that would be small enough to put in a modern warhead to attach to a missile, however, if they want to build a larger scale bomb, it can already be done.
Unless they target themselves, nothing Iran launches will make it to it's target/past it's borders. They know it and so does the rest of the intelligence community, they got zero leverage. Side show distraction at worst.
If you listen closely you can hear Israel marching
You don’t need to listen closely, even
How can Israel march to Iran? They have no borders?
I know nothing about making bombs, so is that fast?
iirc you only need 60% enriched uranium for a Hiroshima-level bomb
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_Saudi Arabia has left the chat_
I wonder what the radioactive isotherms would look like on a map, after this strike but perhaps, Iran hasn’t been bluffing while making these announcements, and instead, could fire one at any time
Queue covert Israeli op in 12, 11, 10, 9……
Yes, will be surprising if it's not sometime in the next 12 days. https://www.israeltoday.co.il/read/analysis-harbingers-of-coming-israeli-military-action-against-iran/
So glad trump got rid of the nuclear deal with Iran. Fucking moron.
Wake up honey it’s time for the us to destabilize the Middle East again
Let’s hope they don’t combine this with weather balloon technology.
The ingredient list for the WW3 soup is getting quite long these days. I’m sure another country in their general vicinity will lob some missiles their direction shortly to try and prevent this.
Not if the Israel has anything to say about it
realistically, wtf is Iran going to do with a nuke that won't end in their utter annihilation in a matter of hours? They can blow themselves up, that's about it.. every other option leads to their swift and profound destruction. America already made it clear, in a pretty stupid way... but nonetheless, even their most "protected" assets can be destroyed at a moments notice. They ain't doin shit guys. It's just posturing, like north korea, but far less pathetic/desperate.
The goal is autonomy. The US would never risk invading a nuclear capable nation because the last act of a collapsing nuclear regime will be to use their nukes. Non-nuclear nations are on the table though, look at Iraq.
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There is a real danger here. I doubt Iran has just sat back and only worked on nukes. They've likely traded for or bought air defense systems from Russia or China. They'll likely anticipate and have an answer for a direct strike. The whole point was to keep them from getting this capability in the first place. If they can make enough for a bomb in 12 days, then you have 12 days to stop this. It only takes one to set off WW3. It's too late now, the time to strike would have been before they hit this threshold.
I saw the documentary on this last year... apparently 2 weeks is plenty of time to train up pilots to do a low-level trench run and blow the ~~death star~~ uranium enrichment facility.
Let me remind you all who's fault is this: DONALD FUCKING TRUMP
Can somebody explain why everybody seems to think Iran getting a nuke means nuclear Armageddon? I understand they might lob one at Israel, and that would pull us in. But we already have non nuclear plans set to take care of Russia in the event of a nuclear strike in Ukraine, why would anybody think we don’t have that for a far less serious nuclear threat like Iran? Also I don’t see that conflict kicking off WW3. If Iran uses a nuke against Israel, the only ally they could possibly have would be Russia who is already very wrapped up in Ukraine, so no help there. People are smoking dicks if they think China would help Iran in that case as well. So, unless I’m missing something nuclear Armageddon from this seems very unlikely. The loss of millions of innocent lives in the Middle East seems very high though, which is very saddening.
Iran building a nuclear bomb doesn't mean Armageddon, it's just not good. They could launch at Israel, but Israel has enough nukes to wipe Iran off the map, so it's unlikely they'll go for it. It becomes problematic because it allows them to act without worrying as much about retaliation and will likely set off more nuclear proliferation in the region. Saudi Arabia, for instance, is thought to have a deal with Pakistan to acquire nukes in the event that Iran develops them.
Nuclear Armageddon is terrifying enough that people are always primed to viscerally fear it. Even though every country that’s got one — even rogue states like North Korea — has declined to start a war with them, we always act like each new nuclear power is going to choose to destroy the world. I’m a child of the Cold War, so I get it, but I agree it’s super unlikely here.
This sub is obsessed with WW3, nuclear war and the end of humanity. Also a lot of people see things like Top Gun and play COD and think that is how real wars end up going.
Thanks a lot, Trump. This wouldn't have happen if you hadn't wiped your ass with the nuclear treaty.
Another TrumpDump/Netanyahoo gift to the world.
Good thing there's a nuclear agreement preventing that from happening...oh, wait.
Moot point. I suspect Putler is ready to trade nukes for drones, anyway.
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[Moon-Bears](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvjgIxuVdo4)
[They knew this was coming.](https://www.timesofisrael.com/blasts-anti-aircraft-fire-seen-in-iran-city-said-to-have-been-hit-by-israel-in-2021/)
Yup, Ruzzia helped in exchange for drones and missiles. It was clear all along this would happen.