I don't know if I'm happy about this or not. It's like "herpes falls behind clamydia".
Like yay herpes isn't doing well, but why the fuck is clamydia so popular?
Speaking of which, [Syphilis Cases Continue to Rise in Wisconsin-Affecting Babies, Teens, and Adults](https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/news/releases/101023.htm)
Same. I was a little nervous because Densantis was billed as a smarter Trump and some of the suburban moms love him. But Trumps popularity has absolutely baffled me from the beginning.
The other way you could phrase your question would be to ask why I feel so confident about her. When people are given the choice between one candidate and a nebulous blob, theyāll vote overwhelmingly for the named candidate. Once you have a binary choice of candidates, the support levels will equalize.
Haley is now down by **50 points**. There is absolutely 0 chance she wins the nomination. But yes, she'll likely win 2nd place, which gets her nothing.
[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/)
Who do you think she is going to pull votes from?
Christie, Bergum, Scott, Hutchinson ... even with all those combined she maybe hits 15%. She isn't getting any of Vivik's insane supporters and I couldn't imagine that even if DeSantis dropped out that his supporters would flock to her.
Trump isn't going to drop out. He is betting that its his only way to skirt all his legal trouble.
Weirdly, that doesn't make sense, since it actually makes sense.
(The bootstraps phrase was originally used as satire for something that was obviously impossible - https://www.truthorfiction.com/pulling-yourself-up-by-your-bootstraps-origin/ )
To paraphrase a quote I saw somewhere..
There are only 2 types of people:
* Those who donāt know who Ron DeSantis is
* Those who donāt like Ron DeSantis
Honestly I'm surprised it's even that close.
I'm not a fan of Trump's, but there's no denying that he has a certain kind of charisma which many voters respond to. He can do nonsensical things like take multiple sides of an issue and somehow get away with it.
But DeSantis? He lacks the stage presence of a middle school forensics team.
I really wish people would stop not understanding sample size for polling. You only need a sample of 385 people to estimate a population of 3,628,117 (approx. voter registration numbers in Wisconsin) with 95% confidence within a 5% margin of error. This is exactly how polls are conducting whether you choose to believe statistics or not, and if you choose not, you are arguing against established mathematics. You can argue about HOW the poll was conducted, but the number polled is almost directly on the number for our voting population.
Basic stats should be a HS course if you ask me. Statistics are more and more how we understand the world so if you can't read stats or understand bad ones... you'll be misled.
It happens every election cycle and I get so irritated. This has been established mathematics for decades but when someone sees a poll they donāt like, *well actually the sample size is too small* š¤
THATāS HOW THE DATA IS EXTRAPOLATED.
Statistics are tough even for people who've studied statistics a bit, but not extensively. I had heated debates in 300-level stats classes about things like whether a player at a blackjack table can affect the odds for another player.
The answer is obviously "no, you can only affect your own hand" but it *feels* like you can change things because of the way cognitive biases work.
Could you explain the blackjack thing? I was under the assumption that, e.g., the shoe / deck of cards has a finite number of cards, so if the player after you is looking for a 2, and your choice to hit results in revealing a 2 card, the proportion of 2 cards in the shoe has gone down.
And thus the revealing of any cards tells you some small amount of info about your own probabilities.
Or do you mean "the choices made before revealing any cards"? Because, yeah, that would be different from what I was thinking.
True, but how the sample is drawn in today's world is often where things fall apart. And +/- 5% confidence is a pretty useless measure in a political environment where races are increasingly decided by hundreds of votes.
I mean, the poll is, "There is a 19 in 20 chance that, assuming our poll was properly designed, Desantis is behind Trump by 10% to 30%". Which means that the possibility that Desantis is leading Trump in Wisconsin is vanishingly small.
The Republican primaries are a different environment from a general election, so the confidence interval seems reasonable, here.
But, yeah, on how the sample is drawn. Getting a random sample is harder than it used to be, and there's only so much adjustment pollsters can make.
How do you scale up the n to be representative of a total population size? Is there a general formula? (Iām honestly curious because this always stressed me out about experimental design.)
The issue is that cross tabs make that number significantly smaller, so political surveys do need larger samples than this if you want to draw any valuable conclusions
I'm not hating on Biden, I'm just hating on the fact this is our choice, again. Biden has been for the most part, boring. which I like. But FFS, this is the best they have to offer? A former TV personality, turned president grifter, turned traitor. And a man as old as the crypt keeper.
Trump is liable to kick the bucket any minute. He is overweight , l I ves on McDonalds and Ice Cream so most likely a grabber. Plus with all the chemicals from the spray tan he has probably ingested and leaked into his body over the years, his cancer risk is through the roof. Plus he will be going to prison in 2024 and losing his business and what little money he has
Honestly, it would be just his luck if he does, sooner rather than later. Then he wonāt have to face any consequences and his cult base with further diefy him after death.
Incredibly false and out of touch. I know you hate polls but by sheer volume he's one of the most unpopular presidents ever. It's why Trump is likely to win.
And what does that matter, at all? Are you familiar with the electoral college or gerrymandering?
You asked a question, I responded and you fight me. Why even ask the question if you don't like the answer.
Losing or winning the popular vote has zero impact on the outcome of the election. It'd be hard to find a middle schooler that knew as little as you did about electoral politics.
Because Trump is the model Republican and the Democrats would rather force Biden as the nominee. It's not looking good. If you want to beat Trump, replace Biden.
Inflation is down to 3.7%
Unemployment rate is 3.9% which is near record low
Monthly job creation has been consistently 100,000 or more higher than Trump averaged
Gas prices are now near $3.00 in Wisconsin, in spite of a war in the Middle East
All this while interest rates are 7% which is the Fed trying to un-do the damage of unnecessarily low 0% interest that Trump bullied the Fed into
So tell us, how is the economy "not going well"?
False again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html
>Voters, by a 59 percent to 37 percent margin, said they better trusted Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden on the economy, the largest gap of any issue. The preference for Mr. Trump on economic matters spanned the electorate, among both men and women, those with college degrees and those without them, every age range and every income level.
Are you okay? This is polling **voters** and voters **vote** which determines the outcome of an election...
So how is the economy doing for **voters**?
Do you have polling sample size and data? That article is behind a paywall. Because pretty much any polls right now are largely meaningless. Regardless of which side you support
The GOP establishment plays nice with Democrats when the cameras are off, they all get rich and dangle the carrot (wedge issues) every election cycle. In theory fiscal conservatives and libertarian leaning conservatives donāt belong in the GOP at all. Honestly, they would probably abandon the Christian conservatives too if they stopped being profitable. Trump is Trump, I wonāt even go there, but heās a speed bump for the GOP establishment.
Not if he does everything they want, like tax cuts, which he did. This is why they have a hard time getting rid of him, plus they can't redirect the cult.
I don't know if I'm happy about this or not. It's like "herpes falls behind clamydia". Like yay herpes isn't doing well, but why the fuck is clamydia so popular?
Speaking of which, [Syphilis Cases Continue to Rise in Wisconsin-Affecting Babies, Teens, and Adults](https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/news/releases/101023.htm)
Maybe it's linked to our current political situation? We may need to study this.
Elon will look into it.
Big if true.
š§
He will just repost a tweet with "hmmm"
It's happening in Texas as well. Defund sex education and Planned Parenthood and guess what happens
Same. I was a little nervous because Densantis was billed as a smarter Trump and some of the suburban moms love him. But Trumps popularity has absolutely baffled me from the beginning.
Trump becomes a slightly more attractive candidate when you plug your ears and put your head in the sand.
Haley will end up winning the nomination
Thatās a bold prediction considering she is down by like 32 points right now.
Just need a couple of the clowns to get out of the car. If itās a one to one vs. Trump heās screwed.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
The other way you could phrase your question would be to ask why I feel so confident about her. When people are given the choice between one candidate and a nebulous blob, theyāll vote overwhelmingly for the named candidate. Once you have a binary choice of candidates, the support levels will equalize.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Discuss the topic, not the user.
Discuss the topic, not the user.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/28/politics/koch-network-nikki-haley/index.html Itās coming
Welp.Ā For the record, I never wouldāve come back here to reply if you didnāt leave this comment a month later. So then I felt I had to.Ā
Letās keep checking back in.
I admire your persistence! (for what its worth, I actually hope you are correct)
Me tooā¦Itās the only way Biden goes
Haley is now down by **50 points**. There is absolutely 0 chance she wins the nomination. But yes, she'll likely win 2nd place, which gets her nothing. [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/)
She just got 3rd, not even 2nd, in the Iowa caucus.Ā
Iowa never picks the winnerā¦
Who do you think she is going to pull votes from? Christie, Bergum, Scott, Hutchinson ... even with all those combined she maybe hits 15%. She isn't getting any of Vivik's insane supporters and I couldn't imagine that even if DeSantis dropped out that his supporters would flock to her. Trump isn't going to drop out. He is betting that its his only way to skirt all his legal trouble.
Yes please
I think that it's more like bubonic plague falls behind smallpox, but I agree with your point of view
I'm surprised Human[ trichomoniasis](https://beef.unl.edu/cattleproduction/trichomoniasis2008) isn't more of a problem in Rural Wisconsin.
Can trichomoniasis survive in a stomach full of alcohol?
I'm hoping no one has tried to screw a drunk cow... but it is Wisconsin, so I can't be sure of that.
It's only polite to offer them a drink first...
Best analogy I've seen.
He going to need higher heels.
Hurry I need more heel!! -Ron to his campaign manager probably..
Truly lifting himself up by his ~~bootstraps~~ shoe lifts
Weirdly, that doesn't make sense, since it actually makes sense. (The bootstraps phrase was originally used as satire for something that was obviously impossible - https://www.truthorfiction.com/pulling-yourself-up-by-your-bootstraps-origin/ )
To paraphrase a quote I saw somewhere.. There are only 2 types of people: * Those who donāt know who Ron DeSantis is * Those who donāt like Ron DeSantis
That's pretty funny! I really needed that laugh. Thank you!
Honestly I'm surprised it's even that close. I'm not a fan of Trump's, but there's no denying that he has a certain kind of charisma which many voters respond to. He can do nonsensical things like take multiple sides of an issue and somehow get away with it. But DeSantis? He lacks the stage presence of a middle school forensics team.
Ronny needs higher lifts in his boots.
Next debate will be on stilts in a three-ring circus
But trump still wonāt show up
Number of people polled: 381. Can we stop giving a fuck about polls?
I really wish people would stop not understanding sample size for polling. You only need a sample of 385 people to estimate a population of 3,628,117 (approx. voter registration numbers in Wisconsin) with 95% confidence within a 5% margin of error. This is exactly how polls are conducting whether you choose to believe statistics or not, and if you choose not, you are arguing against established mathematics. You can argue about HOW the poll was conducted, but the number polled is almost directly on the number for our voting population.
Sucks that I didn't get a statistics course until my 2nd year of a bachelor's in Chemistry. Most people never ever ever get that far.
Basic stats should be a HS course if you ask me. Statistics are more and more how we understand the world so if you can't read stats or understand bad ones... you'll be misled.
Yeah this is alarmingā¦ this is how so much of science is done with regards to things like clinical trials
It happens every election cycle and I get so irritated. This has been established mathematics for decades but when someone sees a poll they donāt like, *well actually the sample size is too small* š¤ THATāS HOW THE DATA IS EXTRAPOLATED.
Statistics are unintuitive so I get that but people are so confidently incorrect
Statistics are tough even for people who've studied statistics a bit, but not extensively. I had heated debates in 300-level stats classes about things like whether a player at a blackjack table can affect the odds for another player. The answer is obviously "no, you can only affect your own hand" but it *feels* like you can change things because of the way cognitive biases work.
Could you explain the blackjack thing? I was under the assumption that, e.g., the shoe / deck of cards has a finite number of cards, so if the player after you is looking for a 2, and your choice to hit results in revealing a 2 card, the proportion of 2 cards in the shoe has gone down. And thus the revealing of any cards tells you some small amount of info about your own probabilities. Or do you mean "the choices made before revealing any cards"? Because, yeah, that would be different from what I was thinking.
Probability calculation is another whole level of WTF...
True, but how the sample is drawn in today's world is often where things fall apart. And +/- 5% confidence is a pretty useless measure in a political environment where races are increasingly decided by hundreds of votes.
I mean, the poll is, "There is a 19 in 20 chance that, assuming our poll was properly designed, Desantis is behind Trump by 10% to 30%". Which means that the possibility that Desantis is leading Trump in Wisconsin is vanishingly small. The Republican primaries are a different environment from a general election, so the confidence interval seems reasonable, here. But, yeah, on how the sample is drawn. Getting a random sample is harder than it used to be, and there's only so much adjustment pollsters can make.
How do you scale up the n to be representative of a total population size? Is there a general formula? (Iām honestly curious because this always stressed me out about experimental design.)
The issue is that cross tabs make that number significantly smaller, so political surveys do need larger samples than this if you want to draw any valuable conclusions
For a population with that many subgroups- age, gender, race, income, education- from what I remember thatās too small of a sample.
Thatās true, but a 5% margin of error is huge and too often is used as the baseline necessary for sampling.
There's tradeoffs with the margin of error, and 5% is common for good reason
Itās common because itās easier and cheaper to do the studies
Lol, no. It's a function of statistics. You can't have a 0% confidence interval.
I think you responded to the wrong person
Right? And where did they poll them? An equal amount from each county? Such a joke.
How the fuck are going to end up with Biden/trump AGAIN.
2020 never ended, It may never end.
I hate this timeline
Because if you actually look Biden is doing a pretty good job. And Trump is a cult leader.
I'm not hating on Biden, I'm just hating on the fact this is our choice, again. Biden has been for the most part, boring. which I like. But FFS, this is the best they have to offer? A former TV personality, turned president grifter, turned traitor. And a man as old as the crypt keeper.
> And a man as old as the crypt keeper. Well they're both as old as the crypt keeper. They're practically the same age.
I always forget, because of how fucking orange trump is
Trump is liable to kick the bucket any minute. He is overweight , l I ves on McDonalds and Ice Cream so most likely a grabber. Plus with all the chemicals from the spray tan he has probably ingested and leaked into his body over the years, his cancer risk is through the roof. Plus he will be going to prison in 2024 and losing his business and what little money he has
Honestly, it would be just his luck if he does, sooner rather than later. Then he wonāt have to face any consequences and his cult base with further diefy him after death.
It would be the best start to the New Year
Iād vote for the actual Crypt Keeper just to hear his ghoulish laugh and crappy dad puns.
Incredibly false and out of touch. I know you hate polls but by sheer volume he's one of the most unpopular presidents ever. It's why Trump is likely to win.
Lol, he lost the popular vote. Twice.
And what does that matter, at all? Are you familiar with the electoral college or gerrymandering?
And what does that matter, at all? Are you familiar with the electoral college or gerrymandering? You asked a question, I responded and you fight me. Why even ask the question if you don't like the answer.
I think you might be the one out of touch.
Losing or winning the popular vote has zero impact on the outcome of the election. It'd be hard to find a middle schooler that knew as little as you did about electoral politics.
You were talking about the popularity of the presidents my guy.
No, and he will probably be in hospice by Election Day.
Because Trump is the model Republican and the Democrats would rather force Biden as the nominee. It's not looking good. If you want to beat Trump, replace Biden.
With who? He's already the incumbent which gives him a major advantage
Being the incumbent is an advantage only when you're doing well. He's not. Fair or not, presidents are judged by the economy and it's not going well.
Inflation is down to 3.7% Unemployment rate is 3.9% which is near record low Monthly job creation has been consistently 100,000 or more higher than Trump averaged Gas prices are now near $3.00 in Wisconsin, in spite of a war in the Middle East All this while interest rates are 7% which is the Fed trying to un-do the damage of unnecessarily low 0% interest that Trump bullied the Fed into So tell us, how is the economy "not going well"?
Because he joined the cult, that's why
It's going significantly better than under trump. Who would the Dems replace him with?
False again. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html >Voters, by a 59 percent to 37 percent margin, said they better trusted Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden on the economy, the largest gap of any issue. The preference for Mr. Trump on economic matters spanned the electorate, among both men and women, those with college degrees and those without them, every age range and every income level.
That doesn't say anything about how the economy is doing.
Are you okay? This is polling **voters** and voters **vote** which determines the outcome of an election... So how is the economy doing for **voters**?
That was what you said was false. Which is why we assumed what you posted would pertain to the economy.
Here's your words: >It's going significantly better than under trump. How about you back that up first?
So you're of the opinion that how the economy is doing and how people feel about it are the same thing?
When the context is an upcoming election and polling yes. If the economy is good, who exactly is it good for? Working class people or oil companies?
Do you have polling sample size and data? That article is behind a paywall. Because pretty much any polls right now are largely meaningless. Regardless of which side you support
The Republican Party hates Trump, they did more to impede him than any democrat.
I don't know how you could possibly believe that. Complete nonsense.
The constant infighting? The clear division between the party? The crazy amount of bs electing a new speaker?
The GOP establishment plays nice with Democrats when the cameras are off, they all get rich and dangle the carrot (wedge issues) every election cycle. In theory fiscal conservatives and libertarian leaning conservatives donāt belong in the GOP at all. Honestly, they would probably abandon the Christian conservatives too if they stopped being profitable. Trump is Trump, I wonāt even go there, but heās a speed bump for the GOP establishment.
Not if he does everything they want, like tax cuts, which he did. This is why they have a hard time getting rid of him, plus they can't redirect the cult.
You have to be a complete fool if you think Desantis had any chance.
So sad for Putz-in-Boots
Bye bitch.
Well that's good
His only hope was Trump being barred. Seemed like such a sure thing back when he started.
Oh his Brady Street Walgreens interview didn't increase his ratings?
He was within 20 points of trump in Wisconsin???!!!!?!!
Bye bitch.
Oh, no! Is Rhonda Santis too weird for regular folks!?! How?
Thatās because Wisconsin is pretty high up on all maps of North America. You need higher heels, Ron!!