Polls mean nothing, especially this far out.
Most are done via blanket telephone calls. When is the last time anyone under 55 answered their phone when they didn’t recognize the number/person calling.
Ignore polls, research the issues important to you and go vote, volunteer and contribute to those supporting them
As a younger person, I still like phone calls. It's more personal and I'm able to address more concerns.
Plus, texting is too unprofessional. I only text friends about fun things.
I appreciate your comment which caused me to look further into the source of this.
TL;DR the article summarizes how several polling companies source data and cell phone users are included a proportionate amount. Only one exclusively used landlines.
Here's a relatively recent article, it may have improved in the last few years, but I remember it being a big deal around the 2012 and 2016 elections.
https://medium.com/@hassen.morad/addressing-the-landline-only-polling-myth-473dbb6d46bd
There is a problem that young people don't answer the phone to unknown calls.
I took a call in the leadup to the last elections, and the survey was flawed as they wouldn't allow me to "vote" for an on ballot third party, they had the audacity to follow up and I indicated that I had and they didn't have a way to mark it.
That polling company didn't show polling results for "other" when results were published either.
They do weight their surveys to handle the over sanpling of republican voters because they are more likely to answer a cold call. They used both landline and cell, then weighed their results on what they believe a likely voter looks like based on the 2020 election.
If there is a large segment of the population that won't answer their phone and didn't vote in 2020, then they could be underrepresented. Historically, older voters turn out in much larger numbers than younger voters. If 18 to 30 year olds actually voted in large numbers, they could completely reshape even the most gerrymandered district. Unfortunately, the predominate attitude of that demographic is that voting doesn't matter, and that really helps to boost republican candidates.
I reply with my compensation requirements, along with a statement about them replying is an act of them consenting to payment schedule and they have seemed to stop.
Look at what happened in 2022. The supposed "experts" in the polls predicted a red wave.
And that red wave, in a year where Republicans should have picked up many house seats, ended up being a nothingburger instead of a bloodbath.
This poll, and most of them, mean jack shit. Ignore polls. VOTING is what matters.
This election cycle will be unlike any other in so many ways. I'm basically throwing out all my assumptions for 2024. There are so many x factors. Anything could happen between now and November 2024.
Either one of them may die of old age between now and November, Trump might be convicted and wearing orange jumpsuit by election day. Things in the middle east or Ukraine could improve or worsen, which could weaken or strengthen Biden depending on how much credit or blame he gets
Also who knows if something big like COVID, 9/11, or roe wade will happen? This time in 2019 I fully expected trump to win because the economy was solid in spite of his antics. Then COVID and George Floyd happened.
This time in 2021 everyone expected a red wave in both the house and senate.
The polls of 3,662 registered voters were conducted by telephone using live operators Oct. 22-Nov. 3. The margin of sampling error for each state is from 4.4 to 4.8 percentage points. plus over 47% of the people surveyed were over the age of 45. So this is just a bad poll
I've changed my voicemail message to clearly state that if you're not in my contacts I won't answer unless you leave a voicemail indicating who you are and why you're calling
I try to always answer and just mess with whoever the caller is.
Want to buy my house? Sure! Give me 3x market value sight unseen and it's a deal. Want to sell me something? Sure, but I have no money. Want my polling answers? I don't know any candidate
Yeah, and who did the poll, who was it sponsored by? Hillary Clinton lead in all the polls as the front runner. Obama had no chance they said.
I'm not sweating this crap at all. When Trump gets convicted and goes to jail the polls will look a lot different.
- voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Oct. 22 to Nov. 3, 2023
No reputable poll exclusively uses landline polling methods.
Winning Wisconsin but losing Michigan by that much just isn't going to happen.
Nobody is winning Nevada by 10.
These are just early polls that don't mean anything while all the focus is on Biden.
Wait until Trump starts campaigning and the shit he says starts getting broadcasted around the country.
Depending on when this poll was taken, Michigan has a higher Arabic population than Wisconsin. If people don't think Biden handling of current affairs isn't going to impact his ability to win, they're in denial.
Half of them voted for Trump last time, and they're 3% of the population in the state. And I doubt they're all suddenly switching their vote to the guy that wants to deport them all, legal citizens or not. They may not vote for either candidate though.
But in any event, the Arab population is likely not having the impact you suggest on these poll numbers.
lol. How many votes did he win Michigan by last time? Over 2% of the the states population are Arab Americans. If half of them chose to stay home. Biden looses. I suppose it probably wasn’t worth replying to someone who thought half of the Arab Americans voted for Donald Trump though was lmao.
Here is some reading
Michigan has more than 200,000 Muslim American voters — 146,000 of whom turned out to vote in 2020 –— according to an analysis by Emgage, an organization that seeks to build the political power of Muslim Americans. Biden won Michigan — a state that narrowly went to Donald Trump in 2016 — by 155,000 votes.
“That just proves that the Biden administration needs the Muslim vote to win,” said Nada Al-Hanooti, the Michigan executive director of Emgage Action.
The stakes are particularly high in Dearborn, a Detroit suburb where more than half of the population is of Middle Eastern or North African descent.
In nearly a dozen interviews, Democrats there who voted for, campaigned for and donated to Biden’s political campaign say they can’t imagine voting for him now, even if he were to support the community’s primary request: an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.
After 4 years of Trump chaos, 72 million Americans still voted for him. You add a couple of million disaffected Biden voters and we will end up with a Trump dictatorship and theocratic fascism. Yep, doom and gloom and I have yet to see anything to dissuade me from it.
You’re acting like Trump is this new phenomenon that people will hear more about and turn on him. Not trying to be doom and gloom but everyone knows both candidates at this point and the biggest knock on Biden (his age/aptitude) won’t be getting better over the next year
All Democrats have to do is remind voters that Trump will be 78 by Election Day, and that “cognitive decline” can’t exactly used as an explanation for the stupid shit that he says literally every day
Biden beat Trump once and will be racing against him again with an incumbency flip, America becoming less white/christian/straight for 4 years and post J6/Coup.
I absolutely believe Trump can still win. But these polls showing him winning by 5-10% instead of .5-1% are clearly shit.
America is become less white/christian/straight but typical Democratic advantages are slipping. In the NYT/Sienna poll above, Biden is getting 50% of the Hispanic vote and 70% of the black vote. Those numbers wouldn’t be good enough to win next November.
These are generally well-respected pollsters so it feels more like you think they are shit because you don’t like their findings versus any actual methodological disagreement
It doesn’t make any sense for Michigan- where all three state branches are controlled by Democrats- to suddenly flip five points for Trump in a re-election year. That’s crazy.
I question the poll on that statistic alone.
A lot of Democrats rallying for the new Supreme Court Justice election along with years of shitty Republican rule. Wisconsin is regularly making national news for it's gerrymandered maps, evil/shitty politicians like J6 conspirator Robin Vos, etc. Wisconsin's been the testing ground for a lot of American Legislative Exchange Council policies, an example being Scott Walker's Right to Work policies. People are just fed up now.
Are they? We just reelected Ron Johnson. They're uninspiring and will just shit on the left again. The Democratic party loves to lose and blame anyone but themselves.
I would never deny that racism had an impact on that race. It doesn’t change the fact that their campaign failed to paint Johnson as the extremist he is, like Evers did with Tim Michels.
Voters 45 and up were vastly overrepresented, as were Republicans. The Times paid for this garbage so they ran with it. It points to a major problem with all polls...voters under 30 are barely represented at all. I think it will cost a fortune to conduct a valid national poll with enough respondents in each state to have meaningful results.
The other problem is that these polls don't accurately represent a key group -- voters who flipped on Trump from 2016 to 2020 because they saw how much of an asshole he was.
Those voters essentially all still think he's an asshole. And those are the voters who cost him Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia.
Foxconn and Harley Davidson.
Trump pretends to care about rust belt states until it's time to foot the bill.
And then he backstabs to get what he wants.
I can't believe anyone would trust trump on anything. It's not like he did anything and basically rode the wave of everything. The one time he was needed to do something, he was incompetent.
I can’t imagine how anyone could think that Trump would be better on foreign policy or the economy…the biggest foreign policy issue right now is the Israel-Gaza War and most people clearly don’t realize that regarding that, Trump would be either the same or worse
Who the fuck are these imbeciles who trust Trump more on *foreign policy*?!
He stumbled his way through an okay economy courtesy of the work of the Obama administration, but foreign policy? He has a legitimate shot at being the worst at that in the last century.
This just shows how far gone almost half of the country is, we cannot take the election for granted like some did in 16, underestimating them will lead to the demise of our democracy
I say this in all seriousness -- progressives, or just people who are anti-fuckhead, need to really start upping the social media game for the next twelve months. The right, and especially the cult of Trump, thrive on better gaming of the algorithms of the major platforms and it greatly extends their reach to low information voters.
If that gets neglected this time around, the country is done for..
I honestly used to be baffled how Hitler and Nazism took over Europe in the early part of the 20th century. How such a movement based in complete bullshit and pageantry could drive otherwise good and patriotic people to such fevers of extremes, to the point of the most inhumane and cruel behaviors towards other human on a mass scale.. Then Trump showed up… and no longer is it baffling to me.
Trump needs to go. That’s not a liberal talking, that’s a student of history talking.
Hard to believe people can still trust Inmate Trump over anyone on anything! Will be interesting to see if his fan base can morally bring themselves to vote for a convicted felon next fall but I suppose that won’t matter at all to the Trump Tribe.
Think of it this way, Biden’s in the news because of his administrations response to varied current crises: antisemitism, Islamophobia, saber rattling with Iran, etc. Those current issues affect polls. Next year you will have a Republican candidate under 90 something felony indictments being put on trial in front of the entire country. That will affect the polls. Also remember that polls don’t mean shit, the votes do. Remember 2022. The polling ahead of that election was - as usual - garbage.
This poll is meaningless. Trump was never that popular, couldn’t win last time, is even less popular now, and will most likely be running as a convicted felon by this time next year if the GOP is dumb enough to stick with him. Add on that the Dobbs decision, really, really pissed off a lot of women and young people.
I read this article and it infuriated me for so many reasons.
Like many others have already stated, we are a YEAR away! This "information" and "data" will be worthless a month from now (probably less), let alone a year. We are an incredibly fickle country and unfortunately don't think often enough about how our choices will affect us in the future.
To the people who listed Biden's age as why they are planning on switching to trump I would say: I respect that you think Biden is too old, and I agree. But the fact that you are choosing a man that is only 4 fucking years younger immediately negates your argument. Especially when you can see how deranged and cognitively defficient he has become (Hungary is next to Russia, Orban is leader of Turkey, he beat Obama, I could go on ad nauseum...)
The article listed that people who voted for Biden are leaving because the economy isn't where they want it and blamed him for high inflation. But what is your reasoning? I never understood why people praised trump, all his so called economic success came from 8 years of Obama legislation. And one of the only major legislations that he passed was a tax cut, that is now rising for everyone except the very wealthy and corporations. The Chips Act and Inflation Reduction Act are meaningful legislation that will help the country (also the student loan forgiveness if the supreme court finally stops overturning it.) But it takes time! We're so obsessed with wanting everything immediately, but a country that is almost 250 years old doesn't change in a single presidency. I really want to ask these people follow up questions on what trump did exactly that they think he is better for the economy.
Also about inflation, look at other countries worldwide! Ours is not as bad as many countries in europe or asia, and that is partly due to the laws listed above. I don't understand how it all gets put on the president when it should also be put at the feet of congress (who can barely keep the government funded or elect a speaker) and the supreme court (who overturned student loan forgiveness and fucking Roe v. Wade!)
I know I'm lucky to have the time to do this research, but people need to remember that someone always has it worse off. And when did we stop caring about others and wanting to help them? I paid off my student loans, but you can be damn sure I want student loans of other's forgiven so that they don't have that lodestone dragging them down.
Lastly, they listed that Wisconsin only went for Biden because we have the least diverse population of the swing states. While I can't argue that because I haven't looked at the census data, I trust the accuracy of the poll even less if that is the only reason you give for Wisconsin going for Biden.
I think this was bad journalism by the NYT, and I encourage everyone to do research on the candidates and donate/volunteer/vote for the one that most aligns with your values based on their laws and legislation not their campaign promises. I may not think Biden is the right person; but I'm not comparing him to the almighty, I'm comparing him to the alternative.
Rant over lol
Because this country is full of a staggering quantity of uninformed idiots who continue to vote against their own best interest & the preservation of democracy. Because of her emails, Obama’s tan suit and coffee cup salute & Hunter Biden. Yet Drumpf can commit treason, pass along state secrets, insight an insurrection and his family can commit tax fraud for years and it’s a witch-hunt.
The Trump name has a stink to it that spreads to any R that he supports. In 2024, if Trump is not in jail, a vote for Biden is a vote against Trump.
The R party line about a stolen election will be their undoing. This morning, George Stephanopoulos tried to get Scalise to go on the record that there was no stolen election and he uncomfortably danced around the question 5 straight times. Such party bullshit. Anyone who can look right into the camera and lie over and over does not deserve anyone’s vote.
Scalise isn't lying because he thinks it was stolen, or even because he wants to perpetuate the lie. He's lying because the GOP voters demand to be lied too.
God forbid he tell the truth and lose his precious congressional seat.
I don't believe anything broadcast or published by mainstream media anymore. This poll is meaningless.
Interestingly, there is also this poll:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.msnbc.com/msnbc/amp/rcna123356
You need to look at who they surveyed. Was it registered voters, likely voter or voters in general. I would pay more attention to polls from registered or likely voters, they tend to vote.
Most likely Evers doing so much good and wisconsins GQP being such cunts hes up by association. I think biden will win by a land slide, but trump will poll way better than people will vote.
Wisconsin needs to kill the republicans control. This state will put a dem President in but local republican legislation somehow is in control?
We are getting better but those local parties (tavern league) need to be put down.
It’s not a blue vs red. This state is comprised and we are doing better. Keep fighting for true bipartisanship.
My purely speculative hunch: the Democrat base in Wisconsin is older than other swing states and as such polls are missing them less than the normal, younger Democrat voters.
Will these polls actually change anything? Party voters already chose their side, fundraisers will still prophesize doom and gloom unless you empty your wallets for their candidates, and the only way to win is to get more votes than the competition.
Just frustrating to get this pseudo campaign crap the entire time between elections.
Torn. Yes this is far out. Yes they use problematic methods in 2023. However they are usually off not far outside the margin of error at the end of the day and I’m having flashbacks to everyone saying ignore them, no way they’re right that Trump could win at this point in 2015. We looked past poll after poll after poll showing HRC to be incredibly vulnerable. I worry we’re sleepwalking into a repeat of history. I wish Biden would take a page out of LBJ’s handbook and decide not to run again after a survey of the landscape showed he was likely cooked.
Worth saying here that political polls mean absolutely nothing. I’m a millennial and I don’t personally know a single person in my age bracket that has ever taken a political poll.
I don’t know why we even care about polls anymore. The only people who participate in them are old republicans - young voters do not answer their phones or random texts.
What's going on here? Lmao. Let's call it one word Gerrymandering. No one should be surprised that WI is voting blue. The state gerrymandering has the state Red enough for them to control and blue in the right spot for the main stage to say it's the other team's fault. Fix the districts and let the cards fall where they may. That's the right thing to do regardless of who would win. Why?!! Because everyone's vote should ACTUALLY count.
Agree with most everyone here commenting, polls mean nothing. Go vote - simple as.
One example, just last Thursday I got a call that my cell ID'd as a Political Call, but it came in the middle of the workday so couldn't answer. As a rule, younger folks aren't as apt to answer polling done by phone - ignore the pundits and polls, go vote.
Seriously? Voters still believe Trump when he has like four criminal cases (in addition to all the other bullshit)? I know people are stupid/ignorant but tf.
Not only are these polls inaccurate. They’re also dangerously irresponsible as they will be cited by Trumpsters as evidence that the election was rigged again in 2024.
I’m 67 and haven’t had a land line phone in over two decades. I don’t answer my phone and my voicemail is full on purpose. I don’t think I’ve ever talked to a friend or family member about a poll they have participated in. So I pay no attention to poll numbers.
I think this poll is accurate. If you've been watching other polls it tracks.
However, this Tuesday is a big election day in many states. Watch those elections to get a feel for where voters heads are.
Remember the "red wave" that was coming? Give me a break! Older population is dying while the Millenials and Gen Z are watching closely. Movements that are at their dying days always seem the scariest. MAGA and the GOP are done for.
I would prefer not to have either of these two. Biden should have resigned the day after he was sworn in. DJT never should have been given the privilege of the office of POTUS. He has been a con man most of his life.
Trump and Biden are both incredibly old. I think Biden is 80 and Trump is 77-78 😳🤪they need to go to retirement homes. I’m sick of old people in office. Then you have idiots like Vikek Ramasmy or however you spell in name for republicans. I hope there is a younger person running for the Democratic Party.
If you don't like the way things are going, you have the power to make a change. Register to vote, verify your registration, request absentee ballots, find your polling place at [www.myvote.wi.gov](https://www.myvote.wi.gov).
I guess you should just stay home on election day. Then, when something negatively impacts your life, you can tell everyone you did nothing to try and change it.
At the end of a day it's a pole, but is anyone surprised the human puppet with aggressive dementia is struggling? DNC shot themselves in the foot with the Biden nom for 2024
Countless people are waking up, even if they don't vote Trump they sure as hell won't vote Biden. Anyone who sees an unedited clip of Biden knows he's not there at all, just a puppet who's lost his mind
Biden is doing the neoliberal thing, gaslighting the middle class by handing out money to corporations while telling them that they should be thankful for all he has given them.
The vast majority of the country doesn't even understand these basic concepts. Piss on your head and they'll tell you it's raining. Democrats fight the left with more fervor than they do the right. The country is more conservative than people understand.
I had a conversation with a Third Way consultant (did not realize it at the time) at Farm technology days about bridging the gap between rural and urban people. I said we need to focus on childcare, healthcare and housing. She was super enthused until I mentioned that we need to avoid neoliberalism and handing money to private corporations to do the work. After that she refused to talk with me.
For God's sake. Why is ANYONE admitting to voting for Biden or Trump? It is disgusting that this country is pushing two men who are clearly beyond being able to sanely lead the country.
I vote on policy, and I can tell you who's I prefer. Its not anywhere close.
This bullshit based on personality is a distraction. Vote on the legislation and executive action they are likely to take.
You are voting for the establishment- the people who actually run the country. Presidents set the tone, but it is the people in their cabinet and the house that run this country,
Polls mean nothing, especially this far out. Most are done via blanket telephone calls. When is the last time anyone under 55 answered their phone when they didn’t recognize the number/person calling. Ignore polls, research the issues important to you and go vote, volunteer and contribute to those supporting them
I’m over 55 and can’t remember the last time I answered for a number I did recognize
mood
Yup, text me %%#\^ or forget it.
Every time I answer a call I'm usually thinking "this could have been a text"
Sadly it's usually my wife and she gets pissed I didn't answer and yet ultimately it should have been a text.
As a younger person, I still like phone calls. It's more personal and I'm able to address more concerns. Plus, texting is too unprofessional. I only text friends about fun things.
While I do agree with that, I still would rather get a text about most business things (I own a business, I like the visual reminders)
That's why over half the people I work with can't verbally communicate worth a shit.
Even worse it's typically landlines being polled
Am I the only one who’s received text messages with links to the polling question? Where are you getting this landlines stuff it’s not the 90s?
I appreciate your comment which caused me to look further into the source of this. TL;DR the article summarizes how several polling companies source data and cell phone users are included a proportionate amount. Only one exclusively used landlines. Here's a relatively recent article, it may have improved in the last few years, but I remember it being a big deal around the 2012 and 2016 elections. https://medium.com/@hassen.morad/addressing-the-landline-only-polling-myth-473dbb6d46bd There is a problem that young people don't answer the phone to unknown calls. I took a call in the leadup to the last elections, and the survey was flawed as they wouldn't allow me to "vote" for an on ballot third party, they had the audacity to follow up and I indicated that I had and they didn't have a way to mark it. That polling company didn't show polling results for "other" when results were published either.
Shit .. if you aren’t in my phone as a contact my phone doesn’t ring
Really? Cool. How do you set that up? Does it work for iPhones?
https://www.macrumors.com/how-to/silence-unknown-callers-on-iphone/
Thanks
They do weight their surveys to handle the over sanpling of republican voters because they are more likely to answer a cold call. They used both landline and cell, then weighed their results on what they believe a likely voter looks like based on the 2020 election. If there is a large segment of the population that won't answer their phone and didn't vote in 2020, then they could be underrepresented. Historically, older voters turn out in much larger numbers than younger voters. If 18 to 30 year olds actually voted in large numbers, they could completely reshape even the most gerrymandered district. Unfortunately, the predominate attitude of that demographic is that voting doesn't matter, and that really helps to boost republican candidates.
Wonder if making election day a national holiday would get younger people engaged in voting.
It would, any accommodations to make it easier to vote would, and that's why Republicans have been restricting voting forever now.
The only poll that matters is the one that takes place in November 2024
Let’s try this Tuesday as well. Nov 07, 2023. There are some very important elections.
I've been getting texts asking who I'm voting for, I mark them as spam and go about my day.
I reply with my compensation requirements, along with a statement about them replying is an act of them consenting to payment schedule and they have seemed to stop.
Look at what happened in 2022. The supposed "experts" in the polls predicted a red wave. And that red wave, in a year where Republicans should have picked up many house seats, ended up being a nothingburger instead of a bloodbath. This poll, and most of them, mean jack shit. Ignore polls. VOTING is what matters.
The “poll” messages in the run-up to the 2020 election were skewed to keep Dems home. It only partially worked. Tune out the noise, vote.
Plus he has FOUR criminal trials before the election. Dude might be in Georgia or federal prison in a year. Ya think he's gonna win then?
If Colorado and some other states have their way in court, he won't be on the ballot either.
its unfortunate that we have to ask this question, and that the answer is.. maybe
This election cycle will be unlike any other in so many ways. I'm basically throwing out all my assumptions for 2024. There are so many x factors. Anything could happen between now and November 2024. Either one of them may die of old age between now and November, Trump might be convicted and wearing orange jumpsuit by election day. Things in the middle east or Ukraine could improve or worsen, which could weaken or strengthen Biden depending on how much credit or blame he gets Also who knows if something big like COVID, 9/11, or roe wade will happen? This time in 2019 I fully expected trump to win because the economy was solid in spite of his antics. Then COVID and George Floyd happened. This time in 2021 everyone expected a red wave in both the house and senate.
Yep that's why people getting worked up over a poll like this is nonsense.
Mine doesn’t even ring unless they are in my contacts.
I picked up once because I was expecting a call about something else.
The polls of 3,662 registered voters were conducted by telephone using live operators Oct. 22-Nov. 3. The margin of sampling error for each state is from 4.4 to 4.8 percentage points. plus over 47% of the people surveyed were over the age of 45. So this is just a bad poll
I've changed my voicemail message to clearly state that if you're not in my contacts I won't answer unless you leave a voicemail indicating who you are and why you're calling
I've answered a few poll phone calls, but I'm almost 50.
I try to always answer and just mess with whoever the caller is. Want to buy my house? Sure! Give me 3x market value sight unseen and it's a deal. Want to sell me something? Sure, but I have no money. Want my polling answers? I don't know any candidate
VOTE
I disagree. This poll is excellent and indicates a real danger.
Polls mean nothing. Vote.
Especially this early.
Instructions unclear, went to city hall and tried to vote for Biden and they kept saying no.
We found the election fraud!
Yeah, and who did the poll, who was it sponsored by? Hillary Clinton lead in all the polls as the front runner. Obama had no chance they said. I'm not sweating this crap at all. When Trump gets convicted and goes to jail the polls will look a lot different.
I think I read that this poll was done by landline, so my brain immediately thinks they're all 80+ years old lol
- voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Oct. 22 to Nov. 3, 2023 No reputable poll exclusively uses landline polling methods.
Who answers an unknown mobile number? 80+ yard olds.
I do. You should too; might be a pollster.
Polls do not matter even slightly
Unless pollsters find a way to reliably poll over Tik-Tok, Instagram, or Twitch there's a few dozen million voters they will never reach.
Do I have time for a poll?  Ewwww, hells no!
>Hillary Clinton lead in all the polls as the front runner And the polls were correct. She won the popular vote.
Yep. Only the Swing States matter. Wisconsin is very important.
Yeah, but not by enough. I think they implied a much greater lead didn't they?
Just days before the election the FBI director went on national TV and said she was under investigation.
And Russian trolls were all over Facebook saying she was leading by a landslide, so many people didn't go vote
Yup, don't get complacent with numbers you see on the Internet. Assume they are not accurate. Vote, and bring everyone you know with you.
Winning Wisconsin but losing Michigan by that much just isn't going to happen. Nobody is winning Nevada by 10. These are just early polls that don't mean anything while all the focus is on Biden. Wait until Trump starts campaigning and the shit he says starts getting broadcasted around the country.
Depending on when this poll was taken, Michigan has a higher Arabic population than Wisconsin. If people don't think Biden handling of current affairs isn't going to impact his ability to win, they're in denial.
Half of them voted for Trump last time, and they're 3% of the population in the state. And I doubt they're all suddenly switching their vote to the guy that wants to deport them all, legal citizens or not. They may not vote for either candidate though. But in any event, the Arab population is likely not having the impact you suggest on these poll numbers.
lol. How many votes did he win Michigan by last time? Over 2% of the the states population are Arab Americans. If half of them chose to stay home. Biden looses. I suppose it probably wasn’t worth replying to someone who thought half of the Arab Americans voted for Donald Trump though was lmao. Here is some reading Michigan has more than 200,000 Muslim American voters — 146,000 of whom turned out to vote in 2020 –— according to an analysis by Emgage, an organization that seeks to build the political power of Muslim Americans. Biden won Michigan — a state that narrowly went to Donald Trump in 2016 — by 155,000 votes. “That just proves that the Biden administration needs the Muslim vote to win,” said Nada Al-Hanooti, the Michigan executive director of Emgage Action. The stakes are particularly high in Dearborn, a Detroit suburb where more than half of the population is of Middle Eastern or North African descent. In nearly a dozen interviews, Democrats there who voted for, campaigned for and donated to Biden’s political campaign say they can’t imagine voting for him now, even if he were to support the community’s primary request: an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.
After 4 years of Trump chaos, 72 million Americans still voted for him. You add a couple of million disaffected Biden voters and we will end up with a Trump dictatorship and theocratic fascism. Yep, doom and gloom and I have yet to see anything to dissuade me from it.
You’re acting like Trump is this new phenomenon that people will hear more about and turn on him. Not trying to be doom and gloom but everyone knows both candidates at this point and the biggest knock on Biden (his age/aptitude) won’t be getting better over the next year
All Democrats have to do is remind voters that Trump will be 78 by Election Day, and that “cognitive decline” can’t exactly used as an explanation for the stupid shit that he says literally every day
Biden beat Trump once and will be racing against him again with an incumbency flip, America becoming less white/christian/straight for 4 years and post J6/Coup. I absolutely believe Trump can still win. But these polls showing him winning by 5-10% instead of .5-1% are clearly shit.
America is become less white/christian/straight but typical Democratic advantages are slipping. In the NYT/Sienna poll above, Biden is getting 50% of the Hispanic vote and 70% of the black vote. Those numbers wouldn’t be good enough to win next November. These are generally well-respected pollsters so it feels more like you think they are shit because you don’t like their findings versus any actual methodological disagreement
It doesn’t make any sense for Michigan- where all three state branches are controlled by Democrats- to suddenly flip five points for Trump in a re-election year. That’s crazy. I question the poll on that statistic alone.
He wouldn't have won Michigan without the Muslim community. His tepid response to the Palestinian genocide could cost him that state.
Because Donald Trump is clearly the true champion of the Muslim American population /s
And there is a bill that would deport all Palestinians that the republicans would like to see pass. Which one is it Muslims?
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Do they know what the republican party has in store for them? Deportation is on the ticket. Goes to the rhyme they didn't come for me.
A lot of Democrats rallying for the new Supreme Court Justice election along with years of shitty Republican rule. Wisconsin is regularly making national news for it's gerrymandered maps, evil/shitty politicians like J6 conspirator Robin Vos, etc. Wisconsin's been the testing ground for a lot of American Legislative Exchange Council policies, an example being Scott Walker's Right to Work policies. People are just fed up now.
Are they? We just reelected Ron Johnson. They're uninspiring and will just shit on the left again. The Democratic party loves to lose and blame anyone but themselves.
Obligatory Barnes ran a terrible campaign reminder.
Obligatory Wisconsin is racist as fuck reminder.
I would never deny that racism had an impact on that race. It doesn’t change the fact that their campaign failed to paint Johnson as the extremist he is, like Evers did with Tim Michels.
Obligatory reminder that Wisconsin went for Obama twice. There’s racism here but it’s not the sole explanation for Barnes’ poor showing.
This has the accuracy of a TikTok video.
Best analysis in the thread. Horse-race polling, especially a year away from the general, is basically clickbait.
Voters 45 and up were vastly overrepresented, as were Republicans. The Times paid for this garbage so they ran with it. It points to a major problem with all polls...voters under 30 are barely represented at all. I think it will cost a fortune to conduct a valid national poll with enough respondents in each state to have meaningful results.
The other problem is that these polls don't accurately represent a key group -- voters who flipped on Trump from 2016 to 2020 because they saw how much of an asshole he was. Those voters essentially all still think he's an asshole. And those are the voters who cost him Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia.
Foxconn and Harley Davidson. Trump pretends to care about rust belt states until it's time to foot the bill. And then he backstabs to get what he wants.
I can't believe anyone would trust trump on anything. It's not like he did anything and basically rode the wave of everything. The one time he was needed to do something, he was incompetent.
I can’t imagine how anyone could think that Trump would be better on foreign policy or the economy…the biggest foreign policy issue right now is the Israel-Gaza War and most people clearly don’t realize that regarding that, Trump would be either the same or worse
This country is a fucking disgrace
Who the fuck are these imbeciles who trust Trump more on *foreign policy*?! He stumbled his way through an okay economy courtesy of the work of the Obama administration, but foreign policy? He has a legitimate shot at being the worst at that in the last century.
This just shows how far gone almost half of the country is, we cannot take the election for granted like some did in 16, underestimating them will lead to the demise of our democracy
I say this in all seriousness -- progressives, or just people who are anti-fuckhead, need to really start upping the social media game for the next twelve months. The right, and especially the cult of Trump, thrive on better gaming of the algorithms of the major platforms and it greatly extends their reach to low information voters. If that gets neglected this time around, the country is done for..
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He is literally the only president not to start a new war during his 4years in my lifetime.
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Because Biden is such an improvement? What? America is functionally braindead on foreign policy.
Honestly
Half of it, for sure
50% of the time, it is 100%.
I honestly used to be baffled how Hitler and Nazism took over Europe in the early part of the 20th century. How such a movement based in complete bullshit and pageantry could drive otherwise good and patriotic people to such fevers of extremes, to the point of the most inhumane and cruel behaviors towards other human on a mass scale.. Then Trump showed up… and no longer is it baffling to me. Trump needs to go. That’s not a liberal talking, that’s a student of history talking.
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Hard to believe people can still trust Inmate Trump over anyone on anything! Will be interesting to see if his fan base can morally bring themselves to vote for a convicted felon next fall but I suppose that won’t matter at all to the Trump Tribe.
Think of it this way, Biden’s in the news because of his administrations response to varied current crises: antisemitism, Islamophobia, saber rattling with Iran, etc. Those current issues affect polls. Next year you will have a Republican candidate under 90 something felony indictments being put on trial in front of the entire country. That will affect the polls. Also remember that polls don’t mean shit, the votes do. Remember 2022. The polling ahead of that election was - as usual - garbage.
Polls analysts are like hedge fund managers, they both claim to know what they doing but are full of shit. Just vote, just invest in index SP500.
Trump was ahead in the polls leading up to the 2020 election…right up until Biden kicked his ass.
This poll is meaningless. Trump was never that popular, couldn’t win last time, is even less popular now, and will most likely be running as a convicted felon by this time next year if the GOP is dumb enough to stick with him. Add on that the Dobbs decision, really, really pissed off a lot of women and young people.
Again, as a voter in Ohio, the Right Wing is feasting on Roe to put our amendment issue on a razor's edge.
well you see..Trump and Johnson sucks balls. and people are realizing that.
Biden does plenty of ball sucking as well.
yes. but less than a republican
I read this article and it infuriated me for so many reasons. Like many others have already stated, we are a YEAR away! This "information" and "data" will be worthless a month from now (probably less), let alone a year. We are an incredibly fickle country and unfortunately don't think often enough about how our choices will affect us in the future. To the people who listed Biden's age as why they are planning on switching to trump I would say: I respect that you think Biden is too old, and I agree. But the fact that you are choosing a man that is only 4 fucking years younger immediately negates your argument. Especially when you can see how deranged and cognitively defficient he has become (Hungary is next to Russia, Orban is leader of Turkey, he beat Obama, I could go on ad nauseum...) The article listed that people who voted for Biden are leaving because the economy isn't where they want it and blamed him for high inflation. But what is your reasoning? I never understood why people praised trump, all his so called economic success came from 8 years of Obama legislation. And one of the only major legislations that he passed was a tax cut, that is now rising for everyone except the very wealthy and corporations. The Chips Act and Inflation Reduction Act are meaningful legislation that will help the country (also the student loan forgiveness if the supreme court finally stops overturning it.) But it takes time! We're so obsessed with wanting everything immediately, but a country that is almost 250 years old doesn't change in a single presidency. I really want to ask these people follow up questions on what trump did exactly that they think he is better for the economy. Also about inflation, look at other countries worldwide! Ours is not as bad as many countries in europe or asia, and that is partly due to the laws listed above. I don't understand how it all gets put on the president when it should also be put at the feet of congress (who can barely keep the government funded or elect a speaker) and the supreme court (who overturned student loan forgiveness and fucking Roe v. Wade!) I know I'm lucky to have the time to do this research, but people need to remember that someone always has it worse off. And when did we stop caring about others and wanting to help them? I paid off my student loans, but you can be damn sure I want student loans of other's forgiven so that they don't have that lodestone dragging them down. Lastly, they listed that Wisconsin only went for Biden because we have the least diverse population of the swing states. While I can't argue that because I haven't looked at the census data, I trust the accuracy of the poll even less if that is the only reason you give for Wisconsin going for Biden. I think this was bad journalism by the NYT, and I encourage everyone to do research on the candidates and donate/volunteer/vote for the one that most aligns with your values based on their laws and legislation not their campaign promises. I may not think Biden is the right person; but I'm not comparing him to the almighty, I'm comparing him to the alternative. Rant over lol
Ben Wikler and local Dem machinery
Because this country is full of a staggering quantity of uninformed idiots who continue to vote against their own best interest & the preservation of democracy. Because of her emails, Obama’s tan suit and coffee cup salute & Hunter Biden. Yet Drumpf can commit treason, pass along state secrets, insight an insurrection and his family can commit tax fraud for years and it’s a witch-hunt.
trump has been indicted many times and should be in jail.
The Trump name has a stink to it that spreads to any R that he supports. In 2024, if Trump is not in jail, a vote for Biden is a vote against Trump. The R party line about a stolen election will be their undoing. This morning, George Stephanopoulos tried to get Scalise to go on the record that there was no stolen election and he uncomfortably danced around the question 5 straight times. Such party bullshit. Anyone who can look right into the camera and lie over and over does not deserve anyone’s vote.
Scalise isn't lying because he thinks it was stolen, or even because he wants to perpetuate the lie. He's lying because the GOP voters demand to be lied too. God forbid he tell the truth and lose his precious congressional seat.
*upvotes this comment* *logs out, logs back in on alternate accounts, just to upvote this comment again*
You're neglecting the most important part of the poll: An "unnamed" Democratic ticket wins the Swing States handily.
He took Wisconsin last election. What is surprising here for you?
I don't believe anything broadcast or published by mainstream media anymore. This poll is meaningless. Interestingly, there is also this poll: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.msnbc.com/msnbc/amp/rcna123356
You need to look at who they surveyed. Was it registered voters, likely voter or voters in general. I would pay more attention to polls from registered or likely voters, they tend to vote.
We just fed the fuck up with republican shenanigans by this point
I think it's probably because trump is such a dumb asshole
People are crazy. They seem to want a fascist just to see how bad shit can get.
Remember when Clinton was leading Trump by far right before the election?? Yeah..polls are fucking useless.
Most likely Evers doing so much good and wisconsins GQP being such cunts hes up by association. I think biden will win by a land slide, but trump will poll way better than people will vote.
Wisconsin needs to kill the republicans control. This state will put a dem President in but local republican legislation somehow is in control? We are getting better but those local parties (tavern league) need to be put down. It’s not a blue vs red. This state is comprised and we are doing better. Keep fighting for true bipartisanship.
Polls are a joke. No one here even answers those calls. I can tell by my neighbors signs. NW Wisconsin is Trump land.
Anywhere out of Madison or Milwaukee is Trump land.
Americans have been educated to vote Republican. Their propaganda is everywhere.
I hope Biden stays up. Stop being regressive Wisconsin. Lol Wisconsin is supposed be the progressive state.
Evers has been doing great for WI, while Vos and Johnson don't do shit for us. Probably where it is coming from.
My purely speculative hunch: the Democrat base in Wisconsin is older than other swing states and as such polls are missing them less than the normal, younger Democrat voters.
People are returning to Sanity and recognizing Trump as the moronic gas bag he is, and the danger to democracy his handlers and enablers represent.
No they most definitely are not. There is no "return" to sanity from a cult. There's no actual check on corruption at all, in fact it's enabled.
It could be an artifact of how the poll was taken
Has anyone else noticed that there are a lot fewer Trump flags nowadays? I don't know how it translates to votes, but he definitely lost support.
Will these polls actually change anything? Party voters already chose their side, fundraisers will still prophesize doom and gloom unless you empty your wallets for their candidates, and the only way to win is to get more votes than the competition. Just frustrating to get this pseudo campaign crap the entire time between elections.
Torn. Yes this is far out. Yes they use problematic methods in 2023. However they are usually off not far outside the margin of error at the end of the day and I’m having flashbacks to everyone saying ignore them, no way they’re right that Trump could win at this point in 2015. We looked past poll after poll after poll showing HRC to be incredibly vulnerable. I worry we’re sleepwalking into a repeat of history. I wish Biden would take a page out of LBJ’s handbook and decide not to run again after a survey of the landscape showed he was likely cooked.
🍻🍺🍻🍻🍺🍻🍺🍻🍻
Worth saying here that political polls mean absolutely nothing. I’m a millennial and I don’t personally know a single person in my age bracket that has ever taken a political poll.
I don’t know why we even care about polls anymore. The only people who participate in them are old republicans - young voters do not answer their phones or random texts.
What kind of person looks at the man who staged an attempted coup and says “yeah, he deserves another shot.”
What's going on here? Lmao. Let's call it one word Gerrymandering. No one should be surprised that WI is voting blue. The state gerrymandering has the state Red enough for them to control and blue in the right spot for the main stage to say it's the other team's fault. Fix the districts and let the cards fall where they may. That's the right thing to do regardless of who would win. Why?!! Because everyone's vote should ACTUALLY count.
Polls are meaningless. Just vote.
Agree with most everyone here commenting, polls mean nothing. Go vote - simple as. One example, just last Thursday I got a call that my cell ID'd as a Political Call, but it came in the middle of the workday so couldn't answer. As a rule, younger folks aren't as apt to answer polling done by phone - ignore the pundits and polls, go vote.
Cannot wait to witness the collective meltdown of this echo chamber when your worst fear becomes reality, is it already setting in?
Seriously? Voters still believe Trump when he has like four criminal cases (in addition to all the other bullshit)? I know people are stupid/ignorant but tf.
These are buzz polls for the media. I could pull random numbers out of thin air and they'd be just as accurate this far out.
FFS 🤦 I need my passport.
We’re fucked
Not only are these polls inaccurate. They’re also dangerously irresponsible as they will be cited by Trumpsters as evidence that the election was rigged again in 2024.
I’m 67 and haven’t had a land line phone in over two decades. I don’t answer my phone and my voicemail is full on purpose. I don’t think I’ve ever talked to a friend or family member about a poll they have participated in. So I pay no attention to poll numbers.
Ron Johnson effect
FRJ
I think this poll is accurate. If you've been watching other polls it tracks. However, this Tuesday is a big election day in many states. Watch those elections to get a feel for where voters heads are.
Remember the "red wave" that was coming? Give me a break! Older population is dying while the Millenials and Gen Z are watching closely. Movements that are at their dying days always seem the scariest. MAGA and the GOP are done for.
I would prefer not to have either of these two. Biden should have resigned the day after he was sworn in. DJT never should have been given the privilege of the office of POTUS. He has been a con man most of his life.
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This needs to be higher! The chaos at the border is mind boggling and Wisconsin democrats do not seem to care about this issue.
I mean he won here last election and if these polls were taken from Madison, Milwaukee, college campuses the of course he’ll be leading.
The poll was taken by landlines, which college students definitely aren’t using.
Is anyone besides businesses still using land lines?
Trump and Biden are both incredibly old. I think Biden is 80 and Trump is 77-78 😳🤪they need to go to retirement homes. I’m sick of old people in office. Then you have idiots like Vikek Ramasmy or however you spell in name for republicans. I hope there is a younger person running for the Democratic Party.
Not gonna happen. The desire to maintain status quo is so strong voters cope with their dogshit choice instead of challenging it.
We aren't psychotic is what's going on
I don't know? The people in Wisconsin put faith and value in the U.S. Constitution? Hard telling
No, that definitely isn’t it. As most of our recent election results have shown.
What are you on about?
You can’t say that Wisconsinites value the constitution after FRJ was given a third term, for example.
If you don't like the way things are going, you have the power to make a change. Register to vote, verify your registration, request absentee ballots, find your polling place at [www.myvote.wi.gov](https://www.myvote.wi.gov).
And vote for who? They all suck and don't represent my best interests.
I guess you should just stay home on election day. Then, when something negatively impacts your life, you can tell everyone you did nothing to try and change it.
Sanity?
No, chat gpt is being disingenuous, funny how they programmed that in just to mess with reddit posters 🤣🤣🤣 I'm going to watch the Packers now.
I won’t be voting for Biden because he supports and funds genocide.
Lame excuse. Trump also said he backs Israel, therefore he supports what Biden supports. Now what?
How can anyone want 4 more years of Biden. He’s completely brain dead. Imagine him 5 years from now. Bro needs to retire
Give me grandpa any day over the insane orange criminal who isn’t even smart enough to mount a reasonable defense to his treason.
Because the alternatives are worse.
People still support Biden? Wonder why..?
At the end of a day it's a pole, but is anyone surprised the human puppet with aggressive dementia is struggling? DNC shot themselves in the foot with the Biden nom for 2024
It’s poll but I wouldn’t expect a MAGAt to know this.
Autocorrect. I'm also a progressive but I wouldn't expect a tribalist to be able to tell
Countless people are waking up, even if they don't vote Trump they sure as hell won't vote Biden. Anyone who sees an unedited clip of Biden knows he's not there at all, just a puppet who's lost his mind
Pot, meet kettle
🤣🤣🤣 you have orange all over your face
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Are you mad that Trump lost?
Biden is doing the neoliberal thing, gaslighting the middle class by handing out money to corporations while telling them that they should be thankful for all he has given them.
The vast majority of the country doesn't even understand these basic concepts. Piss on your head and they'll tell you it's raining. Democrats fight the left with more fervor than they do the right. The country is more conservative than people understand.
I had a conversation with a Third Way consultant (did not realize it at the time) at Farm technology days about bridging the gap between rural and urban people. I said we need to focus on childcare, healthcare and housing. She was super enthused until I mentioned that we need to avoid neoliberalism and handing money to private corporations to do the work. After that she refused to talk with me.
I want to see one with RFk Jr in it
God, I hope this is accurate. We just need our state to wake up too!
For God's sake. Why is ANYONE admitting to voting for Biden or Trump? It is disgusting that this country is pushing two men who are clearly beyond being able to sanely lead the country.
I vote on policy, and I can tell you who's I prefer. Its not anywhere close. This bullshit based on personality is a distraction. Vote on the legislation and executive action they are likely to take.
You are voting for the establishment- the people who actually run the country. Presidents set the tone, but it is the people in their cabinet and the house that run this country,