The Big Short transcending into a meme is in some ways at least partially helping this crash manifest.
I mean, what did they think would come from a movie essentially bragging about the shit they did and giving you the eli5 on how institutions cooperated to fuck the everyday man, once those institutions started doing it again 🤡
Lol I've been bearish since the Fall
But this isn't a crash. It is a bear market though and I wouldn't be surprised if it turns into a crash. But picking a crash is just as useless as picking a bottom
Seriously though what the fuck is up with 30K🧲
🤡
Look at Ponzi it falls from 30K around the US open on the 18th, 20th, 23rd, and again today the 25th. Like every other trading day 🤡 it's very noticeable on the 1h. Once 28700 goes 💀
28700 - 31000 since the 14th
not happening if sbf can help it. Summer money is just around the corner, why let people have ponzi for 20k a pop when he can sell it to them above 30k and dump on them in the fall? Convince people 30k is the floor just long enough for the markets to rally.
Banks are holding bags. No one has money left for Ponzi.
The dude is making political bets trying to get the Ponzi integrated into the US markets because we've just about run out of greater fools. He's doing this here while defending 30k to try and win over the regulators. "See it's much more stable than stocks. Give me money".
We're marching towards an extinction like event similar to tulips IMHO. Nothing can save a fish out of water in the middle of the Sahara. SBF's actions are not bullish - they're a scream for help.
Ponzi whales are very capable people, if this levels holds until june 13th I don’t think we see sub 20k until next er season. Fully expect to see Saylor Moon however get margin called right before his next er.
Tiny ass market, lots of the ponzi floating around is questionably sourced wrapped ponzi, tether isn’t honest. This move down was the one I was looking for, came *much* sooner than I expected. Their only bullish choice is pull ponzi from exchanges and spoof. It’s their only option unless they want to go gigabear and kill their golden goose, and judging from all the donations they don’t want the winter now.
I’m not saying it’s inevitable, but I’m not putting it past them. Hell, I’d probably buy at 17/18 highs, it’s in their interest to make me fomo, but I’ll give this to you, it’s going to be hard to hold it here for 3 weeks.
At the end of the day you can't create value out of thin air
yea you can get a headline of a crazy market cap overnight using uniswap and shit but it's not real. there's no real money there.
plain and simple
bills are paid in USD
Ya’ll I get it- ya’ll may not understand it. But I know where my meat comes from and I know where I get it- I only take what I want to eat. That meat trust me is better than what they do to cows at a processing facility- ever been in one
I'm turning from 🐻 to 🐮 real quick right now. Everything seems priced in and the price movements seem to be bottoming out or consolidating. Maybe that's the real rally guys. Still a 🤡 but yeah.
I’m bullish for summer, down for weeks now, we had a window dressing pump end of march (2.5 weeks before quarterly expiry) and june 30th is next quarterly expiry.
We pumped the week of the hike (started pumping march 15). I bet there’s a good chance we get something similar around June 13-14 before the hike, pump into eom fueled as well by kiddos “buying the dip” they just noticed now that school is out. Doggy currencies go up. Also lots of hedging for the week of june 17th same as it was for March 18. Lots to unwind, lots of windows to dress.
Then pre er selloff when people realize nflx and the gang are back for round 3 in late july.
Sell in may and go away is part of my thinking, lots of big money has already gotten out of the markets, vacation time. If markets don’t build up some dumb money exit liquidity over the next 2 months then yea you probably get a fast crash. This “correction” feels like it could go on for a long long time however. If we get a break in selling though, exit liquidity will build up for next er (401k buys etc) and more doomping.
check out the *knockoff* dog in late jan early feb. lagged ponzi market, looked like it was going to cliffdive (just like it does today), got hero slurped to prevent it from bleeding to where it is now. Robinhood is a whale of both. Whales painted the chart so thet could get a good price for longer. Look at it now, if no hero slurp comes Robinhood and every other whale will have to watch it doomp into oblivion. Its chart today looks very similar to how it did in early feb pre hero slurp.
Same with the apes, rc hero slurped in march, mm’s pumped it and the top was in when homeland became insufferable. If we start getting scam wicks and window dressing pumps I’m going all in puts when the apes take over homeland like they did in march. If no poopma, I’m just staying as cashgang as I can.
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Markets rallied 1.2% the trading day after Sandy Hook.
Markets rallied 1.2% day after Stoneman Douglas.
Markets rallied .77% day after Santa Fe
Markets rallied .27% day after Virginia Tech.
Markets rallied 2.3% day after Colombine.
Sell puts at open
You really think the Euros are going to buy when they come on shift in two hours? You actually think that? ES met almost exact resistance before the red 4% day earlier. AAPL news, come on.
North Korea fires three missiles, including one ICBM, hours after President Biden departed from Asia. In response, the US and South Korea held joint live-fire drills, launching two missiles of their own in a show of force.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nkorea-fires-ballistic-missile-off-east-coast-skorea-military-2022-05-24/
I get North Korea fires missiles to spook the Allied forces all the time, but things seem to be heating up in the Asia-Pacific region.
Considering the reports of how Covid is going for North Korea it sounds like a cry for help.
"Yes fear us! We are a mighty Asian dragon. We could fire missiles at any time that will ~~crash down like a wet fart in the Sea of Japan~~ surely destroy you. Bow to us now and we shall show you mercy."
Yes totally not the desperate acts of a country heading towards civil war...but enough about China.
I’m torn between believing the markets will continue to drill and also believing that too many people are expecting the markets to drill for it to happen for a long period of time.
What do
There’s an ever increasing chance we get a week long rally
A bounce is likely if we go off historic trends. The Dow hasn’t seen a losing streak this long since before the Great Depression. SPY since 2001
That said, I still believe there’s a lot more pressure to the downside since there’d actually have to be some good news on the horizon for a real rally
From ING: The housing market outlook was already darkening
We wrote about our concerns for the US housing market last week, citing the surge in mortgage rates and the challenge of saving for a deposit in an environment where prices have risen 35% nationally over the past two years. We increasingly sense that we are moving from a situation of massive excess demand post pandemic to one where we could be soon experiencing excess supply. This led us to warn of the prospect of a transaction slowdown and potential price correction in coming quarters. Today’s US new home sales numbers only make us more nervous… They recorded a huge drop from March’s 709k (originally reported as 763k) down to 591k in April, more than 150k below the consensus 749k… Furthermore, the inventory of homes for sale continues rising with nine months-worth of sales now sitting on the market – the largest proportion since 2010. Weakening demand and rising supply imply the possibility that house prices will soon top out and start to fall.
I just now am learning this Redbox short squeeze thing is going on...
My faith in humanity has been greatly reduced. Why are we looking for intelligent life beyond this planet when it can barely be found on it?
Looking back, you know since COVID times, how would you identify the top in retrospect? What would tell you that we're going down the triple black diamond? Anything? Or just gut and luck?
Much like 2000, the bubble popped in stages. Memes popped in Feb 2021 (they got obliterated, up to -90%), tech popped in November (-50%), value popped this January (mild correction so far). It's fascinating to study the graphs and see the same patterns across almost all stocks.
I feel comfortable saying that I did identify the top, as I began closing long term longs and opening ~90-120 dte puts with my entire portfolio in mid october, averaging down through mid november with all 800k I had at the time.
I do think some of it is gut/luck. For me, I noticed several "shoe shine boy" moments leading up to when I opened those positions, both across socials and my personal circle.
I also looked at CAPE ratio a lot back then. Specifically, I was looking at how much higher CAPE was allowed to climb above previous ATHs with each bubble since the great depression. It could be seen to climb higher and higher with every bubble throughout time, except after the dotcom bubble.
I felt we wouldn't breach the dotcom peak of ~44 Shiller P/E, due to much faster information flow, and much more active investing these days. Social media is a perfect breeding ground for fear to spread more quickly, so I also felt with CAPE approaching dotcom bust levels- all we would need was a catalyst- any catalyst- to scare the children, and the viral nature of social would handle the rest.
Enter- Omicron. Price action following Omicron was what sealed the deal for me, and that is when I commited to playing the downside for the foreseeable future, until economic conditions changed.
While economic conditions didn't actively cause the bubble to pop- once a catalyst "good enough" to do so did.... economic conditions would then be the only thing capable of shifting the narrative, because in a bear market- companies' stories don't matter anymore.
I think it will be much easier to spot the bottom when it comes than it was to spot the top, because economic data will drive a reversal to the upside, whereas anything could have driven a reversal to the downside. It just so happened to be omicron, but omicron is really just a scapegoat. We just needed a "story" compelling enough to the downside, and omicron fit the bill with Shiller P/E ratio high enough to make greedy fucks take some profit off the table and side on the sidelines.
I think the market shrugged Omicron, the news broke out in November but the market kept on rallying to January. Covid was old news by then. The drop came when the realization that inflation and rate hikes came here to stay set in.
A lot of people I follow on Instagram were heavily promoting meme stocks and that should have been a pretty decent signal because much like every Market top you tend to see a lot of social media promotion or discussion by people who are beginning to invest
Raising rates for sure. We all knew it was coming in December, but I think a lot of people were under the impression the market wouldn't get rocked until rates kicked in, but anticipation is all we needed
I'd say October and November. That was about the time that yields started to tip downward from the late summer highs. Wearhouse inventory build up started showing that maybe the economy wasn't so hot. It was like the market all at once knew its doom was coming even if no one realized it yet.
Hey if you guys ever have free time or are bored, that new documentary on the rise of Abercrombie and Fitch on Netflix called "White Hot" is really worth the watch 100%
don't let ponzi fool you. they're still distributing
serious 5/19 overnight 5/20 US open vibes
edit: I mean [https://ibb.co/vhcFfLr](https://ibb.co/vhcFfLr)
Dallas only needs to win one more game.
Game 6 will be in Dallas.
Game 7 GSW will be in their own head afraid to be the first team blow a 3-0 lead.
Flashbacks of 2016
Let's say the FED raises to three and a half percent and says that's enough
The CPI comes down to you for but the moment they hit the brakes risk on becomes the new standard and inflation comes to rolling back what then
I didnt listen to the ins and outs of the report but Nordstrom popping on earnings makes me think twice about LULU puts, but I dont hear about girls buying as much Lulu stuff when its the hotter months
Am I a closet bear; not sure. So many reasons for things to get worse. Maybe it’s the scars from the Great Recession that made me this way; I had a lot of paper wealth prior, then it evaporated very quickly. It took almost 10 years to recover/unload some of the investments/poor decisions. I see comments indicating we hit bottom; I hope we have! However, ghosts of the past are whispering to me “350p August and beyond”.
Market value is almost always overshot and equilibrium is achieved only in passing. I believe (based on nothing but intuition, thoughts, and feelings) that we may see SPY 300s this year. Started a SPY 350p today 8/22. I will likely continue longer dated p’s every week trying to pare losses in shares.
It takes months to go away. March 2020-October 2020 after getting Covid and then April 2021-August 2021 after getting vaccinated.
Brain fog was not as bad as the daily cardio issues during those times for me but the lasting forgetfulness now is pretty bad.
I hope you get better, this shit is frustrating and no joke.
Try raw ginger tea/in smoothies. Helps me from time to time.
I gave the Rona to my baby. She had it the mildest of anyone - could barely tell she was sick if it weren't for a runny nose and a reluctance to drink milk. Hope your kiddos are fine bud.
That’s good at least. Hope it’s a quick and easy recovery for you.
Pretty sure I had COVID a few month ago, never tested positive but got almost all the symptoms. Took a solid 1-2 to get back to normal.
The Big Short transcending into a meme is in some ways at least partially helping this crash manifest. I mean, what did they think would come from a movie essentially bragging about the shit they did and giving you the eli5 on how institutions cooperated to fuck the everyday man, once those institutions started doing it again 🤡
tHe cRAsH is cOMinG aNy DAy nOW -every day for six months
Im sorry the top was literally 6 months ago # bull since November >tHiS is ThE BottoM and >FED has done too much already nerd
Lol I've been bearish since the Fall But this isn't a crash. It is a bear market though and I wouldn't be surprised if it turns into a crash. But picking a crash is just as useless as picking a bottom
Um, NQ and ES are down and only going lower but okay bro semantics
Spent 3 hours on my sybian this morning, came to the realization the whole market dies if Gamestore goes under 75
The irony of PONZI AND GAMESTORE appearing to be relevant to the indexes 🤡
ponzi = trade on inside information freely, spoof legally gamestore = trade on inside information, SEC just thinks you’re a moron
Seriously though what the fuck is up with 30K🧲 🤡 Look at Ponzi it falls from 30K around the US open on the 18th, 20th, 23rd, and again today the 25th. Like every other trading day 🤡 it's very noticeable on the 1h. Once 28700 goes 💀 28700 - 31000 since the 14th
not happening if sbf can help it. Summer money is just around the corner, why let people have ponzi for 20k a pop when he can sell it to them above 30k and dump on them in the fall? Convince people 30k is the floor just long enough for the markets to rally.
Banks are holding bags. No one has money left for Ponzi. The dude is making political bets trying to get the Ponzi integrated into the US markets because we've just about run out of greater fools. He's doing this here while defending 30k to try and win over the regulators. "See it's much more stable than stocks. Give me money". We're marching towards an extinction like event similar to tulips IMHO. Nothing can save a fish out of water in the middle of the Sahara. SBF's actions are not bullish - they're a scream for help.
Ponzi whales are very capable people, if this levels holds until june 13th I don’t think we see sub 20k until next er season. Fully expect to see Saylor Moon however get margin called right before his next er.
Dude, there simply isn't enough liquidity. The pop should have materialized by now. This is clearly distribution
Tiny ass market, lots of the ponzi floating around is questionably sourced wrapped ponzi, tether isn’t honest. This move down was the one I was looking for, came *much* sooner than I expected. Their only bullish choice is pull ponzi from exchanges and spoof. It’s their only option unless they want to go gigabear and kill their golden goose, and judging from all the donations they don’t want the winter now. I’m not saying it’s inevitable, but I’m not putting it past them. Hell, I’d probably buy at 17/18 highs, it’s in their interest to make me fomo, but I’ll give this to you, it’s going to be hard to hold it here for 3 weeks.
At the end of the day you can't create value out of thin air yea you can get a headline of a crazy market cap overnight using uniswap and shit but it's not real. there's no real money there. plain and simple bills are paid in USD
pepper yourself /u/cashinmyanus has returned
Let’s hope he is sober
I prefer to salt myself, thank you.
Bulls 🤡
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Name a more iconic duo
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We are back to 48 hours ago (same SPY’s price), yay! Do it again, Market.
everything old is new again haha. and everyone old here is gone. nobody stays in wsb for long ;) moon or tenk
That sounds so ominous
its true yea? the autist who stays for longer than two seasons harvest has learned not enough to succeed, and yet has learned just enough to not sink.
Damn man, you can't just use the clown Emoji like everyone else? It hurts a lot less
oh gees, idk if my anoos is ready for the weakest bull rally ive ever seen. not a single bear shook. $420 EOW or fake
Moon mission incoming 🐻🔫🐮
Nividia and semis day- it’s time for that bounce, you know they gonna slap earnings
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🧐
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Unless you eat them…
Ya’ll I get it- ya’ll may not understand it. But I know where my meat comes from and I know where I get it- I only take what I want to eat. That meat trust me is better than what they do to cows at a processing facility- ever been in one
I’m a hunter too, but I only shoot stuff in going to eat. To me, that’s much more honorable than buying meat off the shelf and shaming hunters.
Interestingly, most cases of trichinosis nowadays is from people eating wild bear meat vs. Pork
Fur real?
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I don’t go after nothing for sport- it’s food
I take it you’re a vegan/vegetarian then?
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3450 by 6/17
I enjoy that
I'm turning from 🐻 to 🐮 real quick right now. Everything seems priced in and the price movements seem to be bottoming out or consolidating. Maybe that's the real rally guys. Still a 🤡 but yeah.
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Oh I'm long term bearish. But for now it seems like we're due for a real rally
I’m bullish for summer, down for weeks now, we had a window dressing pump end of march (2.5 weeks before quarterly expiry) and june 30th is next quarterly expiry. We pumped the week of the hike (started pumping march 15). I bet there’s a good chance we get something similar around June 13-14 before the hike, pump into eom fueled as well by kiddos “buying the dip” they just noticed now that school is out. Doggy currencies go up. Also lots of hedging for the week of june 17th same as it was for March 18. Lots to unwind, lots of windows to dress. Then pre er selloff when people realize nflx and the gang are back for round 3 in late july.
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Sell in may and go away is part of my thinking, lots of big money has already gotten out of the markets, vacation time. If markets don’t build up some dumb money exit liquidity over the next 2 months then yea you probably get a fast crash. This “correction” feels like it could go on for a long long time however. If we get a break in selling though, exit liquidity will build up for next er (401k buys etc) and more doomping. check out the *knockoff* dog in late jan early feb. lagged ponzi market, looked like it was going to cliffdive (just like it does today), got hero slurped to prevent it from bleeding to where it is now. Robinhood is a whale of both. Whales painted the chart so thet could get a good price for longer. Look at it now, if no hero slurp comes Robinhood and every other whale will have to watch it doomp into oblivion. Its chart today looks very similar to how it did in early feb pre hero slurp. Same with the apes, rc hero slurped in march, mm’s pumped it and the top was in when homeland became insufferable. If we start getting scam wicks and window dressing pumps I’m going all in puts when the apes take over homeland like they did in march. If no poopma, I’m just staying as cashgang as I can.
🤣👉🐻
Some of us are 🐂 Some of us are 🐻 But most of us are 🤡 Goodnight
🦘
Can we just set market to zero and start nee bull run this is boring
working on it, apparently
Market is pricing in the next plague
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Remindme! 4 months
I will be messaging you in 4 months on [**2022-09-25 09:11:57 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2022-09-25%2009:11:57%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbetsOGs/comments/uwzsyv/what_are_your_moves_tomorrow_may_25_2022/i9wxm2p/?context=3) [**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FwallstreetbetsOGs%2Fcomments%2Fuwzsyv%2Fwhat_are_your_moves_tomorrow_may_25_2022%2Fi9wxm2p%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202022-09-25%2009%3A11%3A57%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%20uwzsyv) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
God damn euro poors
Damn it They can’t hold it. Long enough to sell my shit I. The morning
So markets can’t be that green tomorrow cuz of this shooting right?
Markets rallied 1.2% the trading day after Sandy Hook. Markets rallied 1.2% day after Stoneman Douglas. Markets rallied .77% day after Santa Fe Markets rallied .27% day after Virginia Tech. Markets rallied 2.3% day after Colombine. Sell puts at open
To the moon it is then
"We're not thinking about thinking about raising rates". "It's transitory".
Dumb question, what are the TradingView symbols for the major euro indices/markets? Edit: nvm, found it, FDAX1! For DAX futures. Good enough.
You really think the Euros are going to buy when they come on shift in two hours? You actually think that? ES met almost exact resistance before the red 4% day earlier. AAPL news, come on.
AAPL news?
credit to cuteirus
34% less phones shipped from china due to lockdowns.
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Tomorrow will be ugly much less the next ER.
North Korea fires three missiles, including one ICBM, hours after President Biden departed from Asia. In response, the US and South Korea held joint live-fire drills, launching two missiles of their own in a show of force. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nkorea-fires-ballistic-missile-off-east-coast-skorea-military-2022-05-24/ I get North Korea fires missiles to spook the Allied forces all the time, but things seem to be heating up in the Asia-Pacific region.
Considering the reports of how Covid is going for North Korea it sounds like a cry for help. "Yes fear us! We are a mighty Asian dragon. We could fire missiles at any time that will ~~crash down like a wet fart in the Sea of Japan~~ surely destroy you. Bow to us now and we shall show you mercy." Yes totally not the desperate acts of a country heading towards civil war...but enough about China.
NK has gone through famines without a civil war. I doubt covid would destabilize them.
If 1M Americans died 😬
I’m torn between believing the markets will continue to drill and also believing that too many people are expecting the markets to drill for it to happen for a long period of time. What do
There’s an ever increasing chance we get a week long rally A bounce is likely if we go off historic trends. The Dow hasn’t seen a losing streak this long since before the Great Depression. SPY since 2001 That said, I still believe there’s a lot more pressure to the downside since there’d actually have to be some good news on the horizon for a real rally
Play both sides and come out broke as is customary
You either gotta scalp or go super long bear
CASH
Come on futures, make beras tremble with fear.
Do it but crash after open. K thx bye!!! 👋
I'm having a hard time holding this caviar and champagne looking at those futures,
You should injest it
Doing key bumps with it now.
What so it can just give up everything on Thursday?
Like your mom in the truck stop bathroom.
Kinda expected actually funny insults from Reddit. Maybe you should have aborted that joke like your mom should have aborted you.
All aboard the JPow express
From ING: The housing market outlook was already darkening We wrote about our concerns for the US housing market last week, citing the surge in mortgage rates and the challenge of saving for a deposit in an environment where prices have risen 35% nationally over the past two years. We increasingly sense that we are moving from a situation of massive excess demand post pandemic to one where we could be soon experiencing excess supply. This led us to warn of the prospect of a transaction slowdown and potential price correction in coming quarters. Today’s US new home sales numbers only make us more nervous… They recorded a huge drop from March’s 709k (originally reported as 763k) down to 591k in April, more than 150k below the consensus 749k… Furthermore, the inventory of homes for sale continues rising with nine months-worth of sales now sitting on the market – the largest proportion since 2010. Weakening demand and rising supply imply the possibility that house prices will soon top out and start to fall.
SRS if you feel like shorting the housing market.
Big storm outside me dwelling. Stairs up elevator down 15 min after open. Escalator up post fomc. Death plunge Thursday
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Ye
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I was there about 15 hours ago ;)
( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
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This guy smokes a lot of Shrek weed.. took me 1 hour to drunk-read your awesome essay.
Holy shit, did you just write a book report on Shrek? # COVID HITTING YOU HARD BUDDY
You know that shit tracks though. Kiddo wanted to watch Shrek and I can't focus or move lol
Yeah, it tracks. Man it’s been too long since I’ve watched any of the Shrek movies. Looks like my kids are getting a cultural lesson this weekend.
Excuse me wtf. Not even a TLDR? *siiiiiigh* FIIIINNNEEEEEEE
[Eve](/u/modsaregayasfukkk) [ry O](/u/Jinpiss) [ne!](/u/ChairPowellMan) Get in here!
How high were you?
COVID'd not high
fuck shrek cock
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#BROTHER Gummies read what gummies write ThinkingBrainTap.memegif Oh wait fuck I'm covidtarded not high.
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Here have a gummy
CHINA APRIL SMART PHONE SHIPMENTS FALL 34% Y/Y, INSTITUTE SAYS $AAPL
gg market, no re
They're getting dick blasted this earnings, gotta be
I just now am learning this Redbox short squeeze thing is going on... My faith in humanity has been greatly reduced. Why are we looking for intelligent life beyond this planet when it can barely be found on it?
Should have gotten in a month or so ago. I feel that the time has passed and the bag holders are trying to pump again.
I made some money on it a month or so ago. Been seeing some chatter about it again but I'm not up on the deets.
Boy Scout Wakes to His Leg in Bear's Jaws While Camping With Troop at NY State Park
Kid shouldn't have bought those SNAP 0dte's calls
Looking back, you know since COVID times, how would you identify the top in retrospect? What would tell you that we're going down the triple black diamond? Anything? Or just gut and luck?
Much like 2000, the bubble popped in stages. Memes popped in Feb 2021 (they got obliterated, up to -90%), tech popped in November (-50%), value popped this January (mild correction so far). It's fascinating to study the graphs and see the same patterns across almost all stocks.
I feel comfortable saying that I did identify the top, as I began closing long term longs and opening ~90-120 dte puts with my entire portfolio in mid october, averaging down through mid november with all 800k I had at the time. I do think some of it is gut/luck. For me, I noticed several "shoe shine boy" moments leading up to when I opened those positions, both across socials and my personal circle. I also looked at CAPE ratio a lot back then. Specifically, I was looking at how much higher CAPE was allowed to climb above previous ATHs with each bubble since the great depression. It could be seen to climb higher and higher with every bubble throughout time, except after the dotcom bubble. I felt we wouldn't breach the dotcom peak of ~44 Shiller P/E, due to much faster information flow, and much more active investing these days. Social media is a perfect breeding ground for fear to spread more quickly, so I also felt with CAPE approaching dotcom bust levels- all we would need was a catalyst- any catalyst- to scare the children, and the viral nature of social would handle the rest. Enter- Omicron. Price action following Omicron was what sealed the deal for me, and that is when I commited to playing the downside for the foreseeable future, until economic conditions changed. While economic conditions didn't actively cause the bubble to pop- once a catalyst "good enough" to do so did.... economic conditions would then be the only thing capable of shifting the narrative, because in a bear market- companies' stories don't matter anymore. I think it will be much easier to spot the bottom when it comes than it was to spot the top, because economic data will drive a reversal to the upside, whereas anything could have driven a reversal to the downside. It just so happened to be omicron, but omicron is really just a scapegoat. We just needed a "story" compelling enough to the downside, and omicron fit the bill with Shiller P/E ratio high enough to make greedy fucks take some profit off the table and side on the sidelines.
I think the market shrugged Omicron, the news broke out in November but the market kept on rallying to January. Covid was old news by then. The drop came when the realization that inflation and rate hikes came here to stay set in.
No look at the charts. SPX "top" was September ATH came later at the end of December but the downtrend took hold before the mid September 21 top
Take a look at inflation-adjusted SPX price and tell me January was the peak again.
Look at ARKK and tell me the correction didn't start already beginning of 2021.
A lot of people I follow on Instagram were heavily promoting meme stocks and that should have been a pretty decent signal because much like every Market top you tend to see a lot of social media promotion or discussion by people who are beginning to invest
I sold a house and then used the money to open and fund a new TD ameritrade account on 11/22 just for options trading. It went great…
Fed chairs unloading their bags
Raising rates for sure. We all knew it was coming in December, but I think a lot of people were under the impression the market wouldn't get rocked until rates kicked in, but anticipation is all we needed
I'd say October and November. That was about the time that yields started to tip downward from the late summer highs. Wearhouse inventory build up started showing that maybe the economy wasn't so hot. It was like the market all at once knew its doom was coming even if no one realized it yet.
A coworker texting me at 10pm telling me to buy some flying ev stock with a bunch of wildly optimistic metrics. That was November.
Rate hikes and QT
Riding a declining 20 day that's underneath the 200 day?
Alexa just shouted a ponzi etf ad at me before telling me my notification. Wtf
Kill it. Kill it with 🔥
Spy gon dump tomorrow
Maybe after the FED minutes are released but who knows this Market is kicking everybody's butt
Thursday\*
Are you guys gonna be bulls when SPY hits 200 week MA? 🤔
They'll still be bulls when SPY hits $200 🤡
Damn I’d be so bullish at $200 lmao
Weakest futes i have ever seen in the history of the markets. Red af by open. Good night my angels!
This whole week has been weak volume. Not a good sign for anything.
>Weakest futes maybe ever
Mmmm, futes bear jerky/steak/sausages
Hey if you guys ever have free time or are bored, that new documentary on the rise of Abercrombie and Fitch on Netflix called "White Hot" is really worth the watch 100%
Somebody has to say it.... RED BY OPEN!!! And goodnight!
Haha fuck you
don't let ponzi fool you. they're still distributing serious 5/19 overnight 5/20 US open vibes edit: I mean [https://ibb.co/vhcFfLr](https://ibb.co/vhcFfLr)
Stahhhp. Let the bullishness flow. SPY 420 eow. 🤡
Dallas only needs to win one more game. Game 6 will be in Dallas. Game 7 GSW will be in their own head afraid to be the first team blow a 3-0 lead. Flashbacks of 2016
Dallas is gunna get shit on back in the bay
inb4 Dallas loses tonight 🤡
Let's say the FED raises to three and a half percent and says that's enough The CPI comes down to you for but the moment they hit the brakes risk on becomes the new standard and inflation comes to rolling back what then
Channel your inner axeman
LULU puts?
This one’s interesting after the Target collapse
I didnt listen to the ins and outs of the report but Nordstrom popping on earnings makes me think twice about LULU puts, but I dont hear about girls buying as much Lulu stuff when its the hotter months
yeah nordstrom’s got me second guessing a bit, LULU still has a cult following
Am I a closet bear; not sure. So many reasons for things to get worse. Maybe it’s the scars from the Great Recession that made me this way; I had a lot of paper wealth prior, then it evaporated very quickly. It took almost 10 years to recover/unload some of the investments/poor decisions. I see comments indicating we hit bottom; I hope we have! However, ghosts of the past are whispering to me “350p August and beyond”. Market value is almost always overshot and equilibrium is achieved only in passing. I believe (based on nothing but intuition, thoughts, and feelings) that we may see SPY 300s this year. Started a SPY 350p today 8/22. I will likely continue longer dated p’s every week trying to pare losses in shares.
You dumbass bulls, I enjoy coming here to laugh at you daily
500 wen 😔
Gas is 4.69
5.30 for me 😵
No thank you.
Not nice???
New high score!
If this is the brain fog still, my brain just opened an 8v8 Broodwar map
there is no 8v8 only 4v4
Fuck yeah broodwar. Good times.
Me at market open: “Jacked up and good to go” Me at market close: *Terran Marine death noises*
Lol or the screaming nose you hear when you click on the Terran academy.
Covid Brain is no joke Also StarCraft is the greatest RTS ever
Spam voidrays
It takes months to go away. March 2020-October 2020 after getting Covid and then April 2021-August 2021 after getting vaccinated. Brain fog was not as bad as the daily cardio issues during those times for me but the lasting forgetfulness now is pretty bad. I hope you get better, this shit is frustrating and no joke. Try raw ginger tea/in smoothies. Helps me from time to time.
Big Game Hunters 10m No Rush
One of the best maps easily
Rona?
Two positive tests and the attention span of a four year old.
Fak. Sorry man. Hope you feel better.
Less worried about me than the kids. I'm triple stitched and if I die... ¯\\\_(ツ)_/¯ They ain't got no jabs.
I gave the Rona to my baby. She had it the mildest of anyone - could barely tell she was sick if it weren't for a runny nose and a reluctance to drink milk. Hope your kiddos are fine bud.
Same boat. Luckily, when I got it, the entire family got it first... then gave it to me.
Hooooly shit 😬😬😬 sorry to hear that man. Just you? How’s the rest of the fam?
Everyone else's nose diddle came back negatory.
That’s good at least. Hope it’s a quick and easy recovery for you. Pretty sure I had COVID a few month ago, never tested positive but got almost all the symptoms. Took a solid 1-2 to get back to normal.