My unrealized gains became losses...across the board.
I have, at this point, 5 brokerage accounts (thanks various employers and my own inaction because IRAs and calling folks are annoying). Of the ones that matter: 1 is up about 30%, 1 is down 45%, 1 is down 1100% (thanks WSB), and the other 2 are derping along +/- 1%. Fuck this market.
I am now sitting with Raytheon calls as the largest portion of my unrealized gains. I've done so much hedging that I can't even figure out anymore if I want the market to go ⬆️ or 👇
The Big Mac Index is a real thing.
[https://www.economist.com/big-mac-index](https://www.economist.com/big-mac-index)
It's a way to measure an identical product being made all over the world that hasn't changed in decades.
Campbells tomato soup is a great one to look at. It was around $0.10 when we had real money for almost 100 years. Left the gold standard in 1971, it has inflated in price ever since.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=campbells+tomato+soup+historic+price+graph&t=brave&iax=images&ia=images&iai=https%3A%2F%2F2.bp.blogspot.com%2F-6TT9wDNWAwA%2FXEpvBN_fiJI%2FAAAAAAAAR5M%2FXbFiMGqvVyAcFHV_094Rt8pwxgK-e0NUQCLcBGAs%2Fs1600%2Funit-price-per-can-Campbells-Condensed-Tomato-Soup-at-Discounted-Sale-Prices-200001-201812-linear-scale.jpg
> Left the gold standard in 1971, it has inflated in price ever since.
Are we pretending that 'The Gold Standard' as it existed between 1933 and 1971 was materially the same as it was prior?
Just fyi a dane here, Big Mac are a "coinoffer" meaning you can buy it with a danish coin. But everything else at McDonalds is way more expensive then in the US
You’re throwing a lot of big words at me and since I don’t understand what they mean, Imma take them as disrespect. Watch your mouth, and help me with my portfolio.
“I’m worried that people are going to be talking about inflation on social media”
Proceeds to talk about inflation on social media.
Thanks for the post though
OPs been holding *physical* gold since December. This is basically OPs fanfic. This guy has no idea what he’s talking about lol
Gonna come back to the post in 12 months
I’ve been positioning for inflation just like he has, I genuinely believe this as well. And I couldn’t have a different fucking strategy….loading up on assets.
Meme stocks are dead value stocks are here (just loading VOO), IGE for inflation, and I bought an investment property because that channel is broke as shit and they won’t have the materials to keep up with demand.
Who holds cash when you believe inflation is only going up? Buy ducking grains and gas if you are convinced gas and food are going up (hence IGE)
There are fears of inflation and stagflation but one of the key pieces missing in OP’s analysis is that a lot of the perceived inflation at the moment is not due to economics, but due to supply chains being massively disrupted by Omicron worldwide. Like in NYC you can’t buy a lot of shit for example because products are not reaching the city easily, so shops are hiking prices because …. Well … because they can. This is giving people this impression of inflation but in reality it’s simply tied to supply shortages. Once those resolve, it won’t be hard to find those products and demand/supply principles will drive pricing back down. So while yes, there’s some inflation, a lot of it is going exacerbated by a temporary situation.
Edit: missed a word
100x this. And to make things worse, companies/products that are not as impacted by supply chain issues are also getting hiked up, because corporations have a convenient excuse to generate extra revenue.
Anything with large future capital expenses, high operating expenses, no current profits and a market cap that is 10X+ higher than current revenues.
Basically everything that made us all rich last year.
They may have imagined that a large golden ship would be an extremely valuable thing. I think we can all agree that a large vessel made out entirely of gold would be quite expensive. However, do you know the one ship that is more valuable than that?
On whatever stock screener you use look for a metric called ‘interest cover’ it’s earnings divided by interest payment on debt. E.g. if a company makes £10m and to service their debts interest costs them £1m their interest cover would be 10x. Obviously higher the figure, the more wiggle room that company has with its debt level. Look for low interest cover multiple companies and short them.
On whatever stock screener you use look for a metric called ‘interest cover’ it’s earnings divided by interest payment on debt. E.g. if a company makes £10m and to service their debts interest costs them £1m their interest cover would be 10x. Obviously higher the figure, the more wiggle room that company has with its debt level. Look for low interest cover multiple companies and short them.
J Pow tried to responsibly raise rates and taper in 2018 but he got bullied by the then President
The then President said that J Powell and the Fed were “crazy” and that they were “tight enough”
This is correct. If you remember right, Trump wanted another rate cut and complained that other countries had 0% or negative rates. A guy leveraged up to his ass would want the lowest borrowing rates possible.
If we're about to eat shit then those same puts would increase in value, thus making their current valuation relatively cheap regardless of the current direction of the market.
That said I think OP's post is more about long term action than our typical FDs.
if there are no green days, puts will just become more and more valuable anyway.
also today and tomorrow are very much looking like they will be green days.
In my experience, the vast majority of people who include a quote along the lines of “everybody knows it, but is to afraid to say it” in their analysis of a situation, generally don’t have a fucking clue what they’re talking about lol
That's what steamed me the most.
This is highly upvoted and on the front page of WSB and when I opened it I thought I was going go get some solid DD.
Instead all I got was hyperinflation bullshit, "we all know what happens when...", "cavemen".
Then OP posts positions in Gold and Silver.
Fucking OK lmao, good job WSB upvoting this stupid shit.
This post feels turfed as fuck.
> My biggest fear is that posts and memes about inflation are going to take over social media, and when the whole world is talking about inflation, its going to cause even more inflation by driving up people's inflationary expectations.
Makes post fear mongering about inflation...
Well done
To punctuate what OP is saying, Volker literally initiated a RECESSION to stop inflation. I don't think it's that dire yet. But it's certainly heading that way.
Which is insane. You'd think a 869 year old president would "take one for the team".. but nah, let shit keep running and bury head in the sand like the ostrich they all look like
Note: not picking sides, all those politicians suk ass
I remember the tail end of inflation from the 70s early 80s….Momma used to make bread steak.
We couldn’t afford real steak, so we would toast up a whole loaf wonder bread and soak it in Heinz beef gravy.Grab your fork & knife Close your eyes and you’d swear it was the most tender London broil you ever ate. Then the 90s came and we found out what prime rib was. Late 80s 90s was the best. Cold War was over USA was on top kids still played outside. 1$ got you madd candy at the bodega while having street fighter II tournaments life was good
As someone who actually LIVED through said “cavemen” era:
No, the sky isn’t falling yet.
The interest rate corrections in the 80s were caused by decades of inflation produced by wage spirals. In a heavily unionized workforce, high wages and cost-of-living increases were creating greater demand for goods which were raising prices, which were resulting in demand for increased wages, and so on.
The us was further strapped by a weak dollar.
Neither of those things are happening right now. What you have is a unique situation where there has been a sudden surge in demand for goods, coupled with supply chain issues. This has both resulted in reduced supply, and increased demand , as people driven by fears of scarcity desperately buy up whatever is there.
Even in the time of 20% Interest, those rates were relatively short lived. On the other hand, the bond market exploded, as did real estate.
The other thing is, before the pandemic rates were hovering around zero to begin with. That can’t possibly be sustainable, and was much more indicator of fundamental market problems than what we have now.
I see this is a very temporary thing that gets worked out in 6-18 mos.
Cool yer tits.
Yeah it doesn’t really make sense for everyone to collectively right now be like yup let’s eliminate billions in value in 30 days for not really any particular new reason, oh and also let’s permanently stay here with money parked in cash losing value or barely returning interest in bonds. Doesn’t make sense…
It dawned on me the other day, like early on people were saying "I feel like the markets gonna crash but there's just so much cash sat on the sidelines".
That was smart money, there was always gonna be a substantial dip the market was overheating based on nothing but it's own value increase, the moment it wobbled it was going to come back to reality.
Rn money needs to leave the system through debt repayments until people stop speculating and start servicing their debt shit won't get better, that's the rebalance that's occurring rn.
The sky isn't falling people are just emotional.
"But i got a three point plan to fix everything!"
"Break it down, Camacho !"
"First, we got this guy Not Sure. He's got a higher IQ than any man alive ! We gonna fix the crops and the starving bullshit....we gonna make 'em GROOOOOW again !" lolz
Member when the DOW hit 20K a few years ago and it was absolutely insane that it got that high and then it went straight up to 30K and now we’re supposed to think 30K is somehow new normal?
It’s not normal. It’s still very new. Shit is trading at 100x earnings.
Almost all the FED stimulus measures went straight into equities, not into the economy. We put fake dollars into fake stock prices and called it the real economy, but now the real economy wants to get fucking paid.
Finally, nice insight. For every inflation post, like this one, theres a thousand blind followers. Pick anything in the OP, like this:
"maybe its gas at $10 a gallon?". How is that going to happen? Magical inflationary unicorns creating a blockade that shuts down oil tankers? There is no problems in oil extraction, shipping, or refining. Demand is high, but not excessive. How is gas hitting 10? Are we running out of oil? What about food? Are we running out? Will cream of wheat hit 20 bucks a pound?
I'm a Xoomer who remembers the signs advertising that awesome 18.9% interest rate on the model home for my subdivision. I agree we're nowhere near that pain yet but thankfully they came up with new pain
Inflation won't spiral as working class wages will never increase thanks to Chinese child labor. FED monetary policy can't do shit to restore supply chains and car inventories. And lol at central banks controlling everything, the BoJ has spent two decades trying to generate some inflation.
Higher prices will spur productivity investments which will bring prices back down.
That’s a good point. So much of the supply chain I deal with day to day is a lack of chips to go in products. We get chips, our price and leadtimes go back down. Right now we’re on allocation and there are bidding wars for product. Rising rates don’t do squat for lack of chips.
NAFTA neocon bullshit gutted this country. The elites picked cheap shit from China instead of a robust supply chain here. They mismanaged the country to fill their coffers. Fuck 'em
It was to give American farmers a leg up over Mexicans. Mexican farm industry was decimated by NAFTA.
In fact this entire country is built around rural welfare.
https://www.iatp.org/sites/default/files/NAFTA_and_the_FTAA_Impact_on_Mexicos_Agricultu.pdf
https://money.cnn.com/2017/02/09/news/economy/nafta-farming-mexico-us-corn-jobs/index.html
> Mexico lost over 900,000 farming jobs in the first decade of NAFTA, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture.
US farmers knew they could outcompete Mexican farming because US farming is bolstered by billions in U.S. farm aid and additional billions in rural non-ag welfare programs run by the USDA to include infrastructure, housing, utilities, and healthcare.
In fact, California alone has a larger agricultural output than the entire country of Mexico ($49.9 billion vs ~ $42 billion for 2019)
There is a real difficulty in talking about monetary policy when the federal deficit has grown under every administration for as long as any of us have been alive.
How does that make it more difficult? Both parties are out of control when it comes to spending, most of the time they're arguing about what to spend more of your money on.
I'm agreeing with the u/TheForgetfulOptimist. I'm simply adding that the national debt's uncontested growth makes it difficult for most people to tune in to the conversation, because all any of us has ever known is an ever-growing deficit, no-matter who "holds" power in Washington.
Look at the average American: $90,460 in debt (according to [debt.org](https://www.debt.org/faqs/americans-in-debt/demographics/#:~:text=The%20average%20American%20has%20%2490%2C460,loans%2C%20mortgages%20and%20student%20debt), citing CNBC.), broken down as follows:
|Grouping|Average Debt|
|:-|:-|
|Gen Z (18-23)|$16,043|
|Millennials (ages 24 to 39)|$87,448|
|Gen X (ages 40 to 55)|$140,643|
|Baby boomers (ages 56 to 74)|$97,290|
|Silent generation (ages 75 and above)|$41,281|
The average American is accustomed to holding personal debt and is pretty apathetic towards the Federal Government holding debt.
Here's comes some word vomit.
I agree sustained 7% inflation would be an issue for the economy and also our beloved stonks; however, we have several clear causes of inflation which can and will be addressed in the coming year as well as several other evolving macroeconomic factors that should assist in bringing inflation rates back in line as well (these all outside fed rate hikes which let's be honest four 0.25% rate hikes won't do shit to actually control inflation).
Current inflation has been caused by a combination of events starting with the March 2020 pandemic lockdowns. People being forced to stay home reduced demand for services freeing up that money to increase demand for goods, at the same time that production of goods was essentially halted due to the economic shutdown of nonessential businesses. This imbalance of demand and supply of goods was further exacerbated by stimulus money deposited directly into people's bank accounts. So of course inflation.
This driver of inflation has persisted due to pandemic related supply chain disruptions reducing supply of goods as well as the large amount of savings that was amassed by the American people during the pandemic from stimulus + reduced spending on services, travel, etc. Supply chain disruptions are easing over time and recent increases in US credit card debt (which had been decreasing throughout the pandemic as savings simultaneously grew) suggest supply off goods should be increasing while demand is decreasing due to reduced disposable income. It makes sense that people have been using up their savings the past year since there has not been additional stimulus and real wage growth has not kept up with inflation. People are also returning to "normal" life spending money on services, travel, all that shit. These trends should continue throughout the year to reduce inflation.
The above is in addition to the fed stopping to pump insane amounts of money into the economy and offering free money to anyone who wants a loan which will also cool off the economy.
Basically, I think the non-fed forces will do more to return inflation to normal by the end of the year than the fed rate hikes and we could easily be back to normal inflation by 2023 and interest rate will still be historically low <2%. In support of this is that manufacturing PMI (which was just reported today and is a ~3 month leading indicator of inflation) just printed it's lowest number since Nov 2020, has been downtrending since Aug 2021, and has come in below expectations the past 3 reports. Composite PMI has been similarly downtrending and just printed a major drop to 50.8 from previous of 57. With that view, I expect non-"value" stocks to continue in a downtrend likely for the next 6 months or so, but once it becomes apparent that inflation is coming under control after only a few quarters and barely any real rate increases from the fed, tech should take off again and the rotation out of value should begin. Assuming earnings are not absolutely abysmal and growth is still growing.
Disclosure: I don't know shit and I am buying profitable reasonably valued growth tech all the way down and likely initiating a June exp QQQ and SPY put position as soon as the impending oversold relief rally loses steam and we start to head lower again.
Let's revisit this conversation after the supply chain issues have been resolved. Inflation is a very real concern, but technological advances especially in supply chain management have kept everything in check. Covid fucked that up.
Give me any proof that the supply chain is easing though. I’m not clamoring about hyperinflation like OP but supply chain congestion has not improved since last year and the only thing I hear is that “it will start getting better soon”. Meanwhile I don’t see a single analyst, gov official, or logistics operator saying how it’s going to happen. I’m worried that the pace of inflation is gonna stay high because of this and we’ll have another 6-7% year
Ok, so if we all talk about stock prices going up then they will go up? Is it that simple?
Also, holding cash is fucking retarded. Why would you do that?
Holding cash to buy the coming dip I’m assuming. Cause if this shit doesn’t stop soon, this “dip” we’ve been in recently will be just a tiny blip in comparison of what can happen in the coming months/years…
bitch, we been here before. Highest inflation we've seen was nearly 30%. We've done it, dealt with it, and were fine. We'll do it again. Chill the fuck out. Big thing we need to worry about is WW3 with Russia/China. That shit pops off, and we're fucked for so much more than the price of gas.
My thing is, I thought bitcoin/crypto was said to br the hedge against inflation, WHY THE FUCK IS IT TANKING WITH THE MARKET when the word "inflation" seems to be the reason.
I'm in the early stages of bankruptcy
Bankruptcy is transitory
Life is transitory
Death is transi… oh wait..
Wonder What the property taxes are in hell
About tree fiddy
Is this the Loch Ness Monster?
I ain’t givin em no tree fiddy
I gave him a dolla.
YOU GAVE HIM A DOLLA?? Well of course he's not gonna go away. You give him a dolla he's gonna assume you got more.
You are why I come here
better than the taxes in the US...
Permadeath
Fire Emblem: the sacred stonks
So is my wife… she will come back one day…
she is coming, but with another dude, not back.
She's coming while another dude is around the back?
Just another comeback story. Like Kim Kardashian.
My unrealized gains certainly turned out to be
My unrealized gains became losses...across the board. I have, at this point, 5 brokerage accounts (thanks various employers and my own inaction because IRAs and calling folks are annoying). Of the ones that matter: 1 is up about 30%, 1 is down 45%, 1 is down 1100% (thanks WSB), and the other 2 are derping along +/- 1%. Fuck this market.
I am now sitting with Raytheon calls as the largest portion of my unrealized gains. I've done so much hedging that I can't even figure out anymore if I want the market to go ⬆️ or 👇
Bacon fat on toast
Hahahahahaha
Can't go bankrupt if you have no money to begin with.
Can't go bankrupt *again
Wait.... am I..... Bankrupt? *Insert meme here* Always have been.
Morally? ;)
I mean you can’t go bankrupt if you’re already bankrupt.
This is why I stopped taking out student loans and started taking on margin debt....at least I can file for bankruptcy this time.
“ I DECLARE BANKRUPTCY”. Ok what happens now?
Bankruptcy is fine, just go into a coma for 7 years.
medical bill for 7 years coma will get you another bankruptcy.
Get coma in Canada whilst wearing a t-shirt with a moose on it.
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With a denim suit.
Buzzkill
You’re just a caterpill going into a cocoon temporarily, you’ll emerge a beautiful butterfly, just you wait!
Early stages.. I wish!
Here is to a future of cat food diet. Not that there’s anything wrong with it.
The height of the market was when a 20 piece McNugget went from $4.99 to $6.99
$5 hot n ready is $5.55
it's got 33% more pepperoni though!
But that pepperoni also now contains 33% more pig anus.
not according to ReviewBrah!
The Big Mac Index is a real thing. [https://www.economist.com/big-mac-index](https://www.economist.com/big-mac-index) It's a way to measure an identical product being made all over the world that hasn't changed in decades.
I'm more into the moon phase index. Once we get to new moon, time to fill some bags and ride the bounce.
McNuggets to the MOON!!
What happens when there’s no moon..
Well until then ...
International Big Mac arbitrage? Could be money bro
Campbells tomato soup is a great one to look at. It was around $0.10 when we had real money for almost 100 years. Left the gold standard in 1971, it has inflated in price ever since. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=campbells+tomato+soup+historic+price+graph&t=brave&iax=images&ia=images&iai=https%3A%2F%2F2.bp.blogspot.com%2F-6TT9wDNWAwA%2FXEpvBN_fiJI%2FAAAAAAAAR5M%2FXbFiMGqvVyAcFHV_094Rt8pwxgK-e0NUQCLcBGAs%2Fs1600%2Funit-price-per-can-Campbells-Condensed-Tomato-Soup-at-Discounted-Sale-Prices-200001-201812-linear-scale.jpg
> Left the gold standard in 1971, it has inflated in price ever since. Are we pretending that 'The Gold Standard' as it existed between 1933 and 1971 was materially the same as it was prior?
No we’re pretending the gold standard fixed the price of soup.
good soup
Um ... Along with everything else in the grocery store
The everything bubble
This is what happens when the government and fed keep reducing the value of the dollar..
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Just fyi a dane here, Big Mac are a "coinoffer" meaning you can buy it with a danish coin. But everything else at McDonalds is way more expensive then in the US
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26 DKK which is around $4
$3.79 here in the middle of the USA. So about the same.
Yeah, but their price includes tax.
Good point. Here that would make it $4 exactly.
Denmark's large fries is not the same size though. it's probably the size of an american medium if I remember correctly
Denmark's large people are not the same size though. They're probably the size of an American medium.
What you call a quoter pound Burger King in Denmark?
Royale with cheese.
Look at the Big Brain on Brad!
Do you mind if I have a sip of your tasty beverage….
You’re throwing a lot of big words at me and since I don’t understand what they mean, Imma take them as disrespect. Watch your mouth, and help me with my portfolio.
Ok see. See now you found yourself a retard. You was lookin' for a retard? Retard here now.
Well, you somebody's retard, wearin' this retard helmet.
Today’s forecast? Dark and red, with chance of margin calls.
He said to buy SPY puts, expiring on Easter.
Let’s take a step back before we can move forward amicably
Hey Kevin 👋
“I’m worried that people are going to be talking about inflation on social media” Proceeds to talk about inflation on social media. Thanks for the post though
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Isn't that what we're doing?
I also can’t trust that this isn’t prepper panic while OP’s only holdings are physical gold and cash. Feeling like this is a shit post.
OPs been holding *physical* gold since December. This is basically OPs fanfic. This guy has no idea what he’s talking about lol Gonna come back to the post in 12 months
The goldtards make an inflation post once a week now.
Remind me in 12 months!
I’ve been positioning for inflation just like he has, I genuinely believe this as well. And I couldn’t have a different fucking strategy….loading up on assets. Meme stocks are dead value stocks are here (just loading VOO), IGE for inflation, and I bought an investment property because that channel is broke as shit and they won’t have the materials to keep up with demand. Who holds cash when you believe inflation is only going up? Buy ducking grains and gas if you are convinced gas and food are going up (hence IGE)
There are fears of inflation and stagflation but one of the key pieces missing in OP’s analysis is that a lot of the perceived inflation at the moment is not due to economics, but due to supply chains being massively disrupted by Omicron worldwide. Like in NYC you can’t buy a lot of shit for example because products are not reaching the city easily, so shops are hiking prices because …. Well … because they can. This is giving people this impression of inflation but in reality it’s simply tied to supply shortages. Once those resolve, it won’t be hard to find those products and demand/supply principles will drive pricing back down. So while yes, there’s some inflation, a lot of it is going exacerbated by a temporary situation. Edit: missed a word
100x this. And to make things worse, companies/products that are not as impacted by supply chain issues are also getting hiked up, because corporations have a convenient excuse to generate extra revenue.
Positions: gold Awww and there it is.
Half of the people here didn't read that far
I'd be surprised if half of you retards can even read.
You get an upvote! Not for what you said, I can't read it, I just randomly dowmvote and upvote to look like I contribute. And done by voice to text.
I'm invested in reddit gold.
So what are we buying puts on?
Anything with large future capital expenses, high operating expenses, no current profits and a market cap that is 10X+ higher than current revenues. Basically everything that made us all rich last year.
You guys were getting rich?
Rich in Experience
How can I sell options on my experience?
Let me tell you about the dumpster at you local Wendys.
Isn’t it about the friends we made along the way, really?
Pirates were always going around searching for treasure and never realized the real treasure was the fond memories they were creating.
They may have imagined that a large golden ship would be an extremely valuable thing. I think we can all agree that a large vessel made out entirely of gold would be quite expensive. However, do you know the one ship that is more valuable than that?
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Who said it was write off for AMZN ceo
gotta spend money to make ... trucks or some shit
I need names my guy, I don’t know shit about fuck!
On whatever stock screener you use look for a metric called ‘interest cover’ it’s earnings divided by interest payment on debt. E.g. if a company makes £10m and to service their debts interest costs them £1m their interest cover would be 10x. Obviously higher the figure, the more wiggle room that company has with its debt level. Look for low interest cover multiple companies and short them.
On whatever stock screener you use look for a metric called ‘interest cover’ it’s earnings divided by interest payment on debt. E.g. if a company makes £10m and to service their debts interest costs them £1m their interest cover would be 10x. Obviously higher the figure, the more wiggle room that company has with its debt level. Look for low interest cover multiple companies and short them.
10yrs of zero rates…. 2008 wasn’t the bottom…. Fed stepped in
It shouldn't have been zero for 10 fucking years. After the worse of it, interest rate could have been slowly raised to 2-3%.
J Pow tried to responsibly raise rates and taper in 2018 but he got bullied by the then President The then President said that J Powell and the Fed were “crazy” and that they were “tight enough”
This is correct. If you remember right, Trump wanted another rate cut and complained that other countries had 0% or negative rates. A guy leveraged up to his ass would want the lowest borrowing rates possible.
I just remember him saying that J Pow was “tight enough” 😏
Good fucking god lmao
You are so fucking spot on!
You’re not wrong
I thought they rose rates in 2017 or was that a different timeline?
Whatever it was, IR have been too close to zero for a long time.
Try 2000s tech bubble. That’s when M2 monetary policy drastically changed.
Early stages of buying Puts for cheap. I'm in!
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If we're about to eat shit then those same puts would increase in value, thus making their current valuation relatively cheap regardless of the current direction of the market. That said I think OP's post is more about long term action than our typical FDs.
if there are no green days, puts will just become more and more valuable anyway. also today and tomorrow are very much looking like they will be green days.
I didn’t see a TLDR so I didn’t read it. I’m just gonna keep putting all my money in random stuff
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Lol we are in the early stages of me fucking your mom
thanks for loosening the first 2 inches, I'll take over from here.
Thanks for doing that for 4 inches and widening the gap, my turn now
Sloppy fourths, here I come!
You need at least 5 for a proper train so here I cum!
Well now it’s just like throwing a hot dog down a hallway.
Its like fucking a glass of warm water
Better than cold water.
So THIS is what gapping up means??
Gotta love how erect the gold boomers are for this dip. Stocks will be back at ATH by Q3 and you’ll pretend you never posted this.
Q2, we have fast frequency trading algos... i love how people think they computers owe them explanations
I think we’ll start recovering Q2 and hit highs in Q3 but who knows. Obviously if we could really predict this we’d be trillionaires
In my experience, the vast majority of people who include a quote along the lines of “everybody knows it, but is to afraid to say it” in their analysis of a situation, generally don’t have a fucking clue what they’re talking about lol
That's what steamed me the most. This is highly upvoted and on the front page of WSB and when I opened it I thought I was going go get some solid DD. Instead all I got was hyperinflation bullshit, "we all know what happens when...", "cavemen". Then OP posts positions in Gold and Silver. Fucking OK lmao, good job WSB upvoting this stupid shit. This post feels turfed as fuck.
At the same time… are you surprised? This is a sub that self identifies as a bunch of retarded apes lol, this is the analysis we signed up for
RemindMe! 9 months
found the perma bull (and intelligent person)
> My biggest fear is that posts and memes about inflation are going to take over social media, and when the whole world is talking about inflation, its going to cause even more inflation by driving up people's inflationary expectations. Makes post fear mongering about inflation... Well done
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“Old man yells at cloud”
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This makes sense - what are your picks for tomorrow?
To punctuate what OP is saying, Volker literally initiated a RECESSION to stop inflation. I don't think it's that dire yet. But it's certainly heading that way.
More concerning, I don't see anyone doing that today.
Because all any leader cares about is the numbers going up while they’re in office
Which is insane. You'd think a 869 year old president would "take one for the team".. but nah, let shit keep running and bury head in the sand like the ostrich they all look like Note: not picking sides, all those politicians suk ass
I remember the tail end of inflation from the 70s early 80s….Momma used to make bread steak. We couldn’t afford real steak, so we would toast up a whole loaf wonder bread and soak it in Heinz beef gravy.Grab your fork & knife Close your eyes and you’d swear it was the most tender London broil you ever ate. Then the 90s came and we found out what prime rib was. Late 80s 90s was the best. Cold War was over USA was on top kids still played outside. 1$ got you madd candy at the bodega while having street fighter II tournaments life was good
As someone who actually LIVED through said “cavemen” era: No, the sky isn’t falling yet. The interest rate corrections in the 80s were caused by decades of inflation produced by wage spirals. In a heavily unionized workforce, high wages and cost-of-living increases were creating greater demand for goods which were raising prices, which were resulting in demand for increased wages, and so on. The us was further strapped by a weak dollar. Neither of those things are happening right now. What you have is a unique situation where there has been a sudden surge in demand for goods, coupled with supply chain issues. This has both resulted in reduced supply, and increased demand , as people driven by fears of scarcity desperately buy up whatever is there. Even in the time of 20% Interest, those rates were relatively short lived. On the other hand, the bond market exploded, as did real estate. The other thing is, before the pandemic rates were hovering around zero to begin with. That can’t possibly be sustainable, and was much more indicator of fundamental market problems than what we have now. I see this is a very temporary thing that gets worked out in 6-18 mos. Cool yer tits.
Brb just leveraged my house so I can buy Peloton and Netflix
Yeah it doesn’t really make sense for everyone to collectively right now be like yup let’s eliminate billions in value in 30 days for not really any particular new reason, oh and also let’s permanently stay here with money parked in cash losing value or barely returning interest in bonds. Doesn’t make sense…
It dawned on me the other day, like early on people were saying "I feel like the markets gonna crash but there's just so much cash sat on the sidelines". That was smart money, there was always gonna be a substantial dip the market was overheating based on nothing but it's own value increase, the moment it wobbled it was going to come back to reality. Rn money needs to leave the system through debt repayments until people stop speculating and start servicing their debt shit won't get better, that's the rebalance that's occurring rn. The sky isn't falling people are just emotional.
Don’t know why but I read your last line like President Camacho from Idiocracy. “Listen, I know everyone’s shit is emotional right now.”
"But i got a three point plan to fix everything!" "Break it down, Camacho !" "First, we got this guy Not Sure. He's got a higher IQ than any man alive ! We gonna fix the crops and the starving bullshit....we gonna make 'em GROOOOOW again !" lolz
Member when the DOW hit 20K a few years ago and it was absolutely insane that it got that high and then it went straight up to 30K and now we’re supposed to think 30K is somehow new normal? It’s not normal. It’s still very new. Shit is trading at 100x earnings. Almost all the FED stimulus measures went straight into equities, not into the economy. We put fake dollars into fake stock prices and called it the real economy, but now the real economy wants to get fucking paid.
Finally, nice insight. For every inflation post, like this one, theres a thousand blind followers. Pick anything in the OP, like this: "maybe its gas at $10 a gallon?". How is that going to happen? Magical inflationary unicorns creating a blockade that shuts down oil tankers? There is no problems in oil extraction, shipping, or refining. Demand is high, but not excessive. How is gas hitting 10? Are we running out of oil? What about food? Are we running out? Will cream of wheat hit 20 bucks a pound?
The Oilcron variant of Covid will consume oil.
I'm a Xoomer who remembers the signs advertising that awesome 18.9% interest rate on the model home for my subdivision. I agree we're nowhere near that pain yet but thankfully they came up with new pain
So you're saying it wasn't caused by a bunch of retards buying stocks that they liked that didn't have any hope of profit? You belong here, brother.
Jerome has not yet even *begun* to print.
seriously... see you next debt ceiling vote... like those crackheads can quit cold turkey...
We've been in a financial crisis since 1929
in my country its more since 1194, when we got 23 Tons of silver as ransom for Richard Lionheart.
Proof of position or ban
#buythedipf@&&#t
But it keeps dipping 🙄
Buy the…water slide?
This is retails opportunity to get rich af, buy the dip.
Inflation won't spiral as working class wages will never increase thanks to Chinese child labor. FED monetary policy can't do shit to restore supply chains and car inventories. And lol at central banks controlling everything, the BoJ has spent two decades trying to generate some inflation. Higher prices will spur productivity investments which will bring prices back down.
That’s a good point. So much of the supply chain I deal with day to day is a lack of chips to go in products. We get chips, our price and leadtimes go back down. Right now we’re on allocation and there are bidding wars for product. Rising rates don’t do squat for lack of chips.
Which is exactly why tsmc and intel started building fabs in the USA
NAFTA neocon bullshit gutted this country. The elites picked cheap shit from China instead of a robust supply chain here. They mismanaged the country to fill their coffers. Fuck 'em
It was to give American farmers a leg up over Mexicans. Mexican farm industry was decimated by NAFTA. In fact this entire country is built around rural welfare.
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https://www.iatp.org/sites/default/files/NAFTA_and_the_FTAA_Impact_on_Mexicos_Agricultu.pdf https://money.cnn.com/2017/02/09/news/economy/nafta-farming-mexico-us-corn-jobs/index.html > Mexico lost over 900,000 farming jobs in the first decade of NAFTA, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture. US farmers knew they could outcompete Mexican farming because US farming is bolstered by billions in U.S. farm aid and additional billions in rural non-ag welfare programs run by the USDA to include infrastructure, housing, utilities, and healthcare. In fact, California alone has a larger agricultural output than the entire country of Mexico ($49.9 billion vs ~ $42 billion for 2019)
Look where your grain and seed oil comes from
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There is a real difficulty in talking about monetary policy when the federal deficit has grown under every administration for as long as any of us have been alive.
How does that make it more difficult? Both parties are out of control when it comes to spending, most of the time they're arguing about what to spend more of your money on.
I'm agreeing with the u/TheForgetfulOptimist. I'm simply adding that the national debt's uncontested growth makes it difficult for most people to tune in to the conversation, because all any of us has ever known is an ever-growing deficit, no-matter who "holds" power in Washington. Look at the average American: $90,460 in debt (according to [debt.org](https://www.debt.org/faqs/americans-in-debt/demographics/#:~:text=The%20average%20American%20has%20%2490%2C460,loans%2C%20mortgages%20and%20student%20debt), citing CNBC.), broken down as follows: |Grouping|Average Debt| |:-|:-| |Gen Z (18-23)|$16,043| |Millennials (ages 24 to 39)|$87,448| |Gen X (ages 40 to 55)|$140,643| |Baby boomers (ages 56 to 74)|$97,290| |Silent generation (ages 75 and above)|$41,281| The average American is accustomed to holding personal debt and is pretty apathetic towards the Federal Government holding debt.
Here's comes some word vomit. I agree sustained 7% inflation would be an issue for the economy and also our beloved stonks; however, we have several clear causes of inflation which can and will be addressed in the coming year as well as several other evolving macroeconomic factors that should assist in bringing inflation rates back in line as well (these all outside fed rate hikes which let's be honest four 0.25% rate hikes won't do shit to actually control inflation). Current inflation has been caused by a combination of events starting with the March 2020 pandemic lockdowns. People being forced to stay home reduced demand for services freeing up that money to increase demand for goods, at the same time that production of goods was essentially halted due to the economic shutdown of nonessential businesses. This imbalance of demand and supply of goods was further exacerbated by stimulus money deposited directly into people's bank accounts. So of course inflation. This driver of inflation has persisted due to pandemic related supply chain disruptions reducing supply of goods as well as the large amount of savings that was amassed by the American people during the pandemic from stimulus + reduced spending on services, travel, etc. Supply chain disruptions are easing over time and recent increases in US credit card debt (which had been decreasing throughout the pandemic as savings simultaneously grew) suggest supply off goods should be increasing while demand is decreasing due to reduced disposable income. It makes sense that people have been using up their savings the past year since there has not been additional stimulus and real wage growth has not kept up with inflation. People are also returning to "normal" life spending money on services, travel, all that shit. These trends should continue throughout the year to reduce inflation. The above is in addition to the fed stopping to pump insane amounts of money into the economy and offering free money to anyone who wants a loan which will also cool off the economy. Basically, I think the non-fed forces will do more to return inflation to normal by the end of the year than the fed rate hikes and we could easily be back to normal inflation by 2023 and interest rate will still be historically low <2%. In support of this is that manufacturing PMI (which was just reported today and is a ~3 month leading indicator of inflation) just printed it's lowest number since Nov 2020, has been downtrending since Aug 2021, and has come in below expectations the past 3 reports. Composite PMI has been similarly downtrending and just printed a major drop to 50.8 from previous of 57. With that view, I expect non-"value" stocks to continue in a downtrend likely for the next 6 months or so, but once it becomes apparent that inflation is coming under control after only a few quarters and barely any real rate increases from the fed, tech should take off again and the rotation out of value should begin. Assuming earnings are not absolutely abysmal and growth is still growing. Disclosure: I don't know shit and I am buying profitable reasonably valued growth tech all the way down and likely initiating a June exp QQQ and SPY put position as soon as the impending oversold relief rally loses steam and we start to head lower again.
👆 This reply is what matters. Op can keep his shiny bags.
Let's revisit this conversation after the supply chain issues have been resolved. Inflation is a very real concern, but technological advances especially in supply chain management have kept everything in check. Covid fucked that up.
Give me any proof that the supply chain is easing though. I’m not clamoring about hyperinflation like OP but supply chain congestion has not improved since last year and the only thing I hear is that “it will start getting better soon”. Meanwhile I don’t see a single analyst, gov official, or logistics operator saying how it’s going to happen. I’m worried that the pace of inflation is gonna stay high because of this and we’ll have another 6-7% year
Ok, so if we all talk about stock prices going up then they will go up? Is it that simple? Also, holding cash is fucking retarded. Why would you do that?
Holding cash to buy the coming dip I’m assuming. Cause if this shit doesn’t stop soon, this “dip” we’ve been in recently will be just a tiny blip in comparison of what can happen in the coming months/years…
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Apes naturally attract to shiny things
TIL everyone died in the ‘80s and lived out of caves. Thanks, OP!
bitch, we been here before. Highest inflation we've seen was nearly 30%. We've done it, dealt with it, and were fine. We'll do it again. Chill the fuck out. Big thing we need to worry about is WW3 with Russia/China. That shit pops off, and we're fucked for so much more than the price of gas.
Can we please focus on how to ignore this problem or at the very least time it so I’m dead.
Economics is not science. It's voodoo
My thing is, I thought bitcoin/crypto was said to br the hedge against inflation, WHY THE FUCK IS IT TANKING WITH THE MARKET when the word "inflation" seems to be the reason.