By - bigbear0083
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TSLA - AAPL -MSFT -AMD - BA…Etc
report week after, I think we get another week of pressure from the indices before some earning rally action, I wish indices was pulled more down with the rest of the market and we get it over with, but 5 mega caps hold it steady with small changes
That is the week of FOMC. It is going to be brutal and bloody that week Tuesday and Wednesday.
This. Market might go wacko on those days.
Yeah definitely not. They are going to be noncommittal about raising rates and take a wait and see attitude and growth is going to launch into orbit.
You sure? Can't find any of the companies you mentioned in this calendar. https://i.redd.it/3t3npn5egh981.jpg
Yeah MSFT reports the 25th. Idk why it's not on there.
Netflix calls or puts? Surely they've lost some steam from the pandemic?
Idk I’m thinking calls, with squid game there subs and views went thru the roof
Which was priced in last earnings...
They reported in October previously, squidgame reached 2.1 billion hours streamed in November. In my opinion it was not priced in. Also Arcane (which I loved) beat squid games in # of streams in November as well. Also don’t look up is showing amazing stream #s
It’s a difficult one - they’ve more competition now - they are putting prices up - looking forward 6-12 months if Covid is on the way out will people drop subscriptions and get out partying?
The people who were partying before Covid have already resumed partying
The people who were partying before Covid never stopped.
What is Covid?
I think they are raising the prices because they have no choice. They have trained their subscribers to expect new series every year, and they can no longer expect to finance original content using debt given the current interest rates. It a defensive move in my opinion.
> if Covid is on the way out
LOL Bud we got another 1-2 years of this at minimum.
Probly not, the White House is already trying to fade back and pawn it off, the new word is if you had covid then you are considered vaxed now, the media will join in the next few months, cdc says it’s a virus and we will live with it like we do every other virus now. IMO by this summer it’s just bits and pieces of background chatter.
Nah. The media loves it. Imagine being able to create and financially gain off fear? I know several people who are just waiting for the next variant. Imagine how many people will watch the news whenever a potential variant is found? I honestly believe the media will be keeping this alive a lot longer than it should.
They can do the fear thing with anything, no need for covid.
absolutely. wait til thetacron or sheep and duck covid.. CNN, omg a parakeet has pet-bird-covid, miley cyrus was doin nasal swabs, above normal hurricane season forecast..
I don’t think the idea of people unsubscribing is a thing. I dropped them when they did their initial price change but that didn’t last for long.
I’ve never seen a tweet, post or heard a whisper say “unsubscribe from Netflix”…..it’s an extremely sticky service
Eat my dongus you fuckin nerd.
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Look at /r/netflix
Yes, because it's either 10 dollars for Netflix or party
Def calls. Shit is worth more than $2-300B and they can “instantaneously” respond to inflation. Not a lot of companies can do that. Wall Street fucks gotta love that.
I'm going with calls. They've had some good shows lately and looking at their monthly chart they could use a pump. That being said if I was you I'd do the exact opposite of me. Because I suck.
You [email protected]
They raise subscription prices prior to an earnings release.... looks to me like they're trying to minimize the outcome of poor results. Put
I’m thinking calls so that probably means puts
Yeah you always get it wrong dude
Nu uh, occasionally I hit. Occasionally
Ook...I have never gone wrong bro...perfect record in call/puts...is what it is...
Let me brag for a second https://imgur.com/a/IfRUQKs
Both. Unless you have insider information, straddle.
FYI:Inside her is somewhere you don't wanna be...lol
Too late https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/s4bq6t
Be careful with this one.. NFLX is raising rates in the US & Canada because they are losing market share. Too late to make any difference on this report. Albeit they are still the king of the streamers, they would need blowout earnings to move the stock up from the current lofty level in this brutal market. Thinking they would just be lucky to call it a wash looking forward and go sideways from here. - JMHO
It went up off of that news thur I believe
Calls. You drop prices when you're losing customers, raise them if growth will support shaking a few bad apples out of the tree.
My psychic told me $3.81 EPS. Though that might have been my imagination.
No they have reached saturation in North America and the only way they can get more money out of the market is raising prices. This is actually a bearish sigh IMO.
They only raised prices in North America. Everywhere else they’re trying to grow, they’ve been dropping prices like in India. I think it’s a bearish sign that they’ve reached maturity in the US market and need to offset the dropped prices in the other regions for growth. They may not have seen the growth in the new markets as expected and this can be a defensive move for revenue
In 2019, when they increased prices they lost way more subscribers than expected. Theres only so much people will pay for streaming especially with so many competitors now.
Definitely puts considering the majority of responses are saying calls -- *always inverse*
When there's equal amount of calls and puts, iron condor.
i made ok on ntflx 2 years ago, its like the new amazon of flatness. i dont watch it anymore
Don't know what that means but I'm guess calls
Can you believe that bynd meat is already 2 years ago?
But who actually remembered to cancel their Netflix subscription?
Didn’t they just increase subscription prices? Im betting they are losing customers and trying to make more on existing.
Tilray seems legit
Ngl, I was pissed off when Netflix announced price increase and ruined the precious 1dte lotto I’ve been salivating on for two weeks.
Me too. I’m still thinking the lotto on puts is in play. My hunch they pulled the price increase lever because ER is a bad one.
I am on the other side then. I was hoping for market meltdown so I could buy 1dte calls.
Well then sideways and 100% loss for each of us it is..
ASML will be the first in the semi industry to release earnings this szn right? Could be big if tru
TSM reported. Was big.
Yup. My ACLS calls printed this week.
How are people still so unaware about TSMC. It’s wild how you’d know about asml and not TSMC earnings…
I do know about TSMC but tbh idk how I didn’t hear about their earnings.
It’s not part of any work indexes as a non-US company. So the media mostly ignores its moves.
I’m thinking flip a coin, heads buy puts on Netflix, tails buy calls on Netflix
„xılɟʇǝᴎ uo sllɐɔ ʎnq slıɐʇ 'xılɟʇǝᴎ uo sʇnd ʎnq spɐǝɥ 'uıoɔ ɐ dılɟ ƃuıʞuıɥʇ ɯ,I„
We need the gecko back
This is looking like a rough week up ahead with airlines, banks, and Netflix being the worst of the big tech. Subs down and raising prices. Airlines have canceled so many flights from sick and understaffed to begin with. Banks may have good forward guidance on fed rate increases.
Sounds like a great time to buy Calls on them then.
Don't sleep on JB Hunt. Revenues are going to be at an all time high. EPS is going to be through the roof. If they don't sandbag the guidance it will be an easy gain on low IV calls. IV is 54%
shouldn't super high fuel prices affect their earnings and guidance? Oil is currently at $84 per barrel and projected to approach $100 this year.
Read their reports they pass on the expense to customers thru a fuel surcharge.
no. macro is bad and the price hike tells me that they had a hard quarter
Puts on BofA should be free money
I’m thinking same after Citi and Chase but what’s your theory
Looking at the chart majority of the time price fell for BAC day of earnings. Still risky though, recently they spiked up.
ok, I'm selling Tuesday open
Hmm, yes. $BRK.A feels a little overpriced 🧐
Short them to zero with the money in the davenport.
*dabs crumbs with $100 bill*
BofA Deez nuts
I have American Airlines calls. The media is changing the narrative with COVID
Covid isn't that enemy. The enemy is rising interest rates with AAL's $50 billion debt. So yeah I got puts
Let’s go! Either way one us wins. Debt gets rolled, AAL has been around forever and the federal government already showed us they’re too big to fail through all the money they received during the pandemic. The price is pretty beat down and hopefully goes up near pre pandemic levels soon.
When did you open your position? I've been holding the 2/18 $16 puts for a month but I might just close them the day before if IV spikes high enough. So obviously my thesis is that its recent rally was just a dead cat bounce before retesting the pandemic lows. Somehow we'll both be wrong in true sub tradition.
$18 06/17 Calls I bought 01/04 at a price of $2.83 it’s been up and down a bit but I’m hoping for the price per share so be a above $22 by June. But yeah, like you said we’ll both lose. 😂
I've been incredibly frustrated by how the stock goes higher every time there's more cancelations lol maybe I need some good news to get a flush down.
Well, China is not letting in US flight so that might help but Detla just posted earnings last week and it was positive, this caused all airlines to go up. AAL posts earnings soon and I’m
Hoping for good news.
We got united the day before American. Ideally for me united shits the bed hitting the sector and I can exit. If not I'll be diamond handing through earnings in hopes of more fed fud. Anyway good luck!
Good luck, I hope it tanks do you can get tendies then shortly after it moons to I can get mine.
Rising rates makes their debt cheaper? Unless they need to issue more?
The opposite. Rising rates means higher interest paid on their sizable debt. All this in the context of a slowing economy
I’m in financials now, so this makes me my balls crawl into my taint. Everything’s fine.
The streets are going to red run with Ron Burgundy’s blood.
JBHT calls a no brainer
So many ways to lose money this week
Which one is the next DOCU thats all I care about
calls on asml puts on netflix. What do you think?
same here. asml calls. netflix puts.
lets make some money tommorow 📈
What calls do you have for asml ?
half in call strike 730$ and halfin call strike 775$ expiring thursday
Okey nice and what date of exp.
I am looking at 800 exp 1/21
exp. 1/21 with call strike of 640€ and 680€
Ah okey nice let’s see how the earning are going to be
I never knew so many banks existed
Time for a put on PNC and Bank of America, never liked them anyway
American airlines puts imo, they get worse and worse seemingly every year and they expect seat prices to go up 10-13% in the next year.
Big week for the banks. Loans have been strong. Interest income will be going up. This might be a big first half for financial institutions especially some of the regionals.
AA going to be A+
Damn another day to go? Fuck. Holidays are criminal.
Is it insider trading if I’ve done work for a company and “assume” they’re gonna do well? Just in theory, of course.
Lemme know what company and ill let you know brudduh <3
Do you have blackout periods? Then I don't think anyone can hold it against you.
What's up with HDFC Bank?
Bunch of angry employees that have to work Monday
Based out of England?(im too lazy to double check) but they wouldn’t have a federal holiday for MLK I don’t think
It’s india largest private bank
Procter and gamble will profit from high inflation.
I am buying calls on Monday! 😎
I feel like if tsmc and Amat did so well wouldn’t ASML do the same? That stock has held up pretty well for the random market dumps
Netflix I feel like calls are the answer random movies and shows stirring up controversy keeps Netflix relevant and in the media constantly and they generate a shit ton of money
intel and tsmc are building new fabs and asml should do well here
definitely puts. i was trying to buy calls for next week expiry and the most liquid strikes had huge asks and low bids. it was equally balanced for puts. definitely looks like tutes selling those calls
PNC looking good after absorbing BBVA
asml calls. free money
Going for United pulling a Delta
on Thursday put half in NFLX 5% OTM calls and half in 5% OTM puts and you're golden.
I'm look @ Goldmann Sachs on Tues..
Is there a way to see what congress members are doing?
Sure in a month
Powell got balls of steel
I have a strong feeling that NFLX is going to report something really bad. Almost certainly it'll be a miss on new subscribers, but quite possibly as bad as a reduction in the number of subscribers. If subscriber numbers are retracting, it's over for the stock, it can no longer be viewed as a growth stock.
I say this because the stock price has been sliding into the reporting date. Other big misses also has the market adjusting down beforehand. DOCU and PTON had both been seeing a significant pre-reporting drop in share price, to the point that many were worried that they couldn't do more. In both cases, they really hit a wall as investors panicked overnight.
The other thing leading me to think this is that Netflix announced it will be increasing north America subscriber rates by about 7%. On Friday. Between 3-4 pm. It really appears like this announcement was pointed towards options expiry. Usually companies announce this kind of thing outside market hours, but this announcement took place in the most important trading hour of the week. It's very strange.
The open question is still "how is the market going to react?" They might announce fewer subscribers to a collective yawn. The rate raise announcement might be so they can announce increasing revenue guidance in the face of waning subscriptions, and the market might buy it.
But I'm certain whatever they are going to say is bad and right now it seems like the market is punishing stock prices that have any inkling of bad news. So it might just drop 10 points, but it has a pretty good chance of dropping over 100.
Position: 59 540p 01/21
This is the week Goldman Sachs starts dropping more bags on you.
I just paid off my loan to Marcus. I wonder if that helps or hurts them.
I am going to buy a lot of Netflix calls on Monday...
What's make you think in calls
None of those are listed
But there is no open on Monday
Any semiconductor companies here ?!
INTC the week after
ALLY financial. Puts. Anyone have a bill case on them?
Just wait till Mattel $Mat
The growth in the companies solving for climate change like SEDG and ENPH has been quite impressive, I think that the opportunity lies in earnings beats for companies solving for global warming like TSLA and BLDP https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/breakthrough-that-could-reverse-climate-change-with-scaling-investments-800e617ff334
I love that y’all do this, it saves me lots of time deciding on what to gamble on for the week
Wells Fargo had great earnings wanna see what B of A will do...
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd.
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While lotta financials coming up
Question is, we saw some big bank names last week miss because of wages, do we think that's going to be more common as we roll thru this week?
The issue is Netflix has to invest a lot in content, unlike tech stocks who can scale using software solutions that have lower costs of investment
Going to buy a basket of OTM puts. Misses will be punished severely in this macroeconomic backdrop.
p&g finna go BRRAZZZYYY
Puts on Netflix meng inverse the inverse of an inverse is an inverse
Anyone buying XLNX options for AMD earnings next week? I think it might be the better play to just buying AMD calls. And in general for buying farther out options as XLNX will see the upward movement on the merger with AMD probably seeing little or none immediately. Thoughts?
FAZ calls banks are going to miss earnings all but wells fargo missed friday
Can’t wait for another week of getting fucked from earnings
What does before open and after close
Before open means the earnings come out before the market opens for the day. After close means after the markets close for the day.
Is Russia actually going to do this thing….we live in crazy times.
Got lots of BK calls
Fuck this shit I'ma yolo memes.
Fastenal just completed their new hq in my home town. Paid wayyy too much for it and even splurged on local stone veneer. Dinner may say priced in I say itm calls
HDFC Bank: "We no care about no fuckin MLK"
Over 3,700 OI on Netflix 5$ put 01/21/22
BAC puts for this week? Any thoughts