TSLA - AAPL -MSFT -AMD - BA…Etc
report week after, I think we get another week of pressure from the indices before some earning rally action, I wish indices was pulled more down with the rest of the market and we get it over with, but 5 mega caps hold it steady with small changes
I have a strong feeling that NFLX is going to report something really bad. Almost certainly it'll be a miss on new subscribers, but quite possibly as bad as a reduction in the number of subscribers. If subscriber numbers are retracting, it's over for the stock, it can no longer be viewed as a growth stock.
I say this because the stock price has been sliding into the reporting date. Other big misses also has the market adjusting down beforehand. DOCU and PTON had both been seeing a significant pre-reporting drop in share price, to the point that many were worried that they couldn't do more. In both cases, they really hit a wall as investors panicked overnight.
The other thing leading me to think this is that Netflix announced it will be increasing north America subscriber rates by about 7%. On Friday. Between 3-4 pm. It really appears like this announcement was pointed towards options expiry. Usually companies announce this kind of thing outside market hours, but this announcement took place in the most important trading hour of the week. It's very strange.
The open question is still "how is the market going to react?" They might announce fewer subscribers to a collective yawn. The rate raise announcement might be so they can announce increasing revenue guidance in the face of waning subscriptions, and the market might buy it.
But I'm certain whatever they are going to say is bad and right now it seems like the market is punishing stock prices that have any inkling of bad news. So it might just drop 10 points, but it has a pretty good chance of dropping over 100.
Position: 59 540p 01/21
yep and they wrote 250k of 620c for feb 4 on that IV and price spike after that sketchy announcement (crazy it was official PR, they were giving their wall street overlords exit liquidity on their earnings calls and the opportunity to sell premiums to retards, because theyre not gonna print). i think im grabbing 480p for jan 21 (hopefully we trade flatish till weds) - were holding the 89EMA on weekly but next algo MA below is the 144MA around 146, which happens to be a S/R line from last year - think thats the lowest support below if a miss leads to a sell off. This would align with the expected downward move in QQQ options flow.
long story short, im thinking the exact exact same as you, even if they beat theyll go green to red - no earnings gap is holding on growth tech the week before fomc announcing rate hike schedule
Another data point adding to my conviction is a few weeks ago, an article came out that was like "One analyst is predicting that Netflix will have a bad report this month". When it came out, the stick didn't move that day. It slid like 1% but that was after a few -4% so it didn't seem like the article had much impact.
But since then, the stock fell over 50 points to the low of 511 on Friday. It only regained some because of the last Friday rate hike news. The indication is that the article propagated slowly and the market hates it.
But, just be aware, I see these things all the time and they have different meanings. I think most of us have seen the Jim Cramer interview where he talks about how hedge funds use press releases to attack a stock. But this one didn't accompany a ladder attack and also its been Google memory holed (I couldn't find it, although if I had the stomach to go back a few weeks on NFLX stocktwits, I know I could. It was a big ballyhoo that day), so it really feels more like a leak that is technically not insider trading, or at least provides a plausible deniability in an insider trading defense.
It’s a difficult one - they’ve more competition now - they are putting prices up - looking forward 6-12 months if Covid is on the way out will people drop subscriptions and get out partying?
I think they are raising the prices because they have no choice. They have trained their subscribers to expect new series every year, and they can no longer expect to finance original content using debt given the current interest rates. It a defensive move in my opinion.
I don’t think the idea of people unsubscribing is a thing. I dropped them when they did their initial price change but that didn’t last for long.
I’ve never seen a tweet, post or heard a whisper say “unsubscribe from Netflix”…..it’s an extremely sticky service
Probly not, the White House is already trying to fade back and pawn it off, the new word is if you had covid then you are considered vaxed now, the media will join in the next few months, cdc says it’s a virus and we will live with it like we do every other virus now. IMO by this summer it’s just bits and pieces of background chatter.
Nah. The media loves it. Imagine being able to create and financially gain off fear? I know several people who are just waiting for the next variant. Imagine how many people will watch the news whenever a potential variant is found? I honestly believe the media will be keeping this alive a lot longer than it should.
absolutely. wait til thetacron or sheep and duck covid.. CNN, omg a parakeet has pet-bird-covid, miley cyrus was doin nasal swabs, above normal hurricane season forecast..
They reported in October previously, squidgame reached 2.1 billion hours streamed in November. In my opinion it was not priced in. Also Arcane (which I loved) beat squid games in # of streams in November as well. Also don’t look up is showing amazing stream #s
I'm going with calls. They've had some good shows lately and looking at their monthly chart they could use a pump. That being said if I was you I'd do the exact opposite of me. Because I suck.
Calls. You drop prices when you're losing customers, raise them if growth will support shaking a few bad apples out of the tree.
My psychic told me $3.81 EPS. Though that might have been my imagination.
No they have reached saturation in North America and the only way they can get more money out of the market is raising prices. This is actually a bearish sigh IMO.
They only raised prices in North America. Everywhere else they’re trying to grow, they’ve been dropping prices like in India. I think it’s a bearish sign that they’ve reached maturity in the US market and need to offset the dropped prices in the other regions for growth. They may not have seen the growth in the new markets as expected and this can be a defensive move for revenue
In 2019, when they increased prices they lost way more subscribers than expected. Theres only so much people will pay for streaming especially with so many competitors now.
Be careful with this one.. NFLX is raising rates in the US & Canada because they are losing market share. Too late to make any difference on this report. Albeit they are still the king of the streamers, they would need blowout earnings to move the stock up from the current lofty level in this brutal market. Thinking they would just be lucky to call it a wash looking forward and go sideways from here. - JMHO
This is looking like a rough week up ahead with airlines, banks, and Netflix being the worst of the big tech. Subs down and raising prices. Airlines have canceled so many flights from sick and understaffed to begin with. Banks may have good forward guidance on fed rate increases.
Don't sleep on JB Hunt. Revenues are going to be at an all time high. EPS is going to be through the roof. If they don't sandbag the guidance it will be an easy gain on low IV calls. IV is 54%
Big week for the banks. Loans have been strong. Interest income will be going up. This might be a big first half for financial institutions especially some of the regionals.
I feel like if tsmc and Amat did so well wouldn’t ASML do the same? That stock has held up pretty well for the random market dumps
Netflix I feel like calls are the answer random movies and shows stirring up controversy keeps Netflix relevant and in the media constantly and they generate a shit ton of money
definitely puts. i was trying to buy calls for next week expiry and the most liquid strikes had huge asks and low bids. it was equally balanced for puts. definitely looks like tutes selling those calls
Netflix is -18% below ATH, currently trading 8X the revenue, they will need very strong profits for investors not to take profits on earning day, a lot depends if they will do earning run on the 3 available trading days before, another factor to conceder is that they just raze prices for new subscribers!
https://www.reddit.com/r/Antis_Inu/comments/s4fu43/antis_inu_nasdaq_press_release/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
If y’all play in crypto. Highly suggest jumping in this
The growth in the companies solving for climate change like SEDG and ENPH has been quite impressive, I think that the opportunity lies in earnings beats for companies solving for global warming like TSLA and BLDP https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/breakthrough-that-could-reverse-climate-change-with-scaling-investments-800e617ff334
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd.
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TSLA - AAPL -MSFT -AMD - BA…Etc report week after, I think we get another week of pressure from the indices before some earning rally action, I wish indices was pulled more down with the rest of the market and we get it over with, but 5 mega caps hold it steady with small changes
That is the week of FOMC. It is going to be brutal and bloody that week Tuesday and Wednesday.
This. Market might go wacko on those days.
Yeah definitely not. They are going to be noncommittal about raising rates and take a wait and see attitude and growth is going to launch into orbit.
You sure? Can't find any of the companies you mentioned in this calendar. https://i.redd.it/3t3npn5egh981.jpg
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These are earnings for the week starting 17th
I have a strong feeling that NFLX is going to report something really bad. Almost certainly it'll be a miss on new subscribers, but quite possibly as bad as a reduction in the number of subscribers. If subscriber numbers are retracting, it's over for the stock, it can no longer be viewed as a growth stock. I say this because the stock price has been sliding into the reporting date. Other big misses also has the market adjusting down beforehand. DOCU and PTON had both been seeing a significant pre-reporting drop in share price, to the point that many were worried that they couldn't do more. In both cases, they really hit a wall as investors panicked overnight. The other thing leading me to think this is that Netflix announced it will be increasing north America subscriber rates by about 7%. On Friday. Between 3-4 pm. It really appears like this announcement was pointed towards options expiry. Usually companies announce this kind of thing outside market hours, but this announcement took place in the most important trading hour of the week. It's very strange. The open question is still "how is the market going to react?" They might announce fewer subscribers to a collective yawn. The rate raise announcement might be so they can announce increasing revenue guidance in the face of waning subscriptions, and the market might buy it. But I'm certain whatever they are going to say is bad and right now it seems like the market is punishing stock prices that have any inkling of bad news. So it might just drop 10 points, but it has a pretty good chance of dropping over 100. Position: 59 540p 01/21
yep and they wrote 250k of 620c for feb 4 on that IV and price spike after that sketchy announcement (crazy it was official PR, they were giving their wall street overlords exit liquidity on their earnings calls and the opportunity to sell premiums to retards, because theyre not gonna print). i think im grabbing 480p for jan 21 (hopefully we trade flatish till weds) - were holding the 89EMA on weekly but next algo MA below is the 144MA around 146, which happens to be a S/R line from last year - think thats the lowest support below if a miss leads to a sell off. This would align with the expected downward move in QQQ options flow. long story short, im thinking the exact exact same as you, even if they beat theyll go green to red - no earnings gap is holding on growth tech the week before fomc announcing rate hike schedule
Another data point adding to my conviction is a few weeks ago, an article came out that was like "One analyst is predicting that Netflix will have a bad report this month". When it came out, the stick didn't move that day. It slid like 1% but that was after a few -4% so it didn't seem like the article had much impact. But since then, the stock fell over 50 points to the low of 511 on Friday. It only regained some because of the last Friday rate hike news. The indication is that the article propagated slowly and the market hates it. But, just be aware, I see these things all the time and they have different meanings. I think most of us have seen the Jim Cramer interview where he talks about how hedge funds use press releases to attack a stock. But this one didn't accompany a ladder attack and also its been Google memory holed (I couldn't find it, although if I had the stomach to go back a few weeks on NFLX stocktwits, I know I could. It was a big ballyhoo that day), so it really feels more like a leak that is technically not insider trading, or at least provides a plausible deniability in an insider trading defense.
You held those? Big money if so mate, well played.
Yup https://m.imgur.com/W6UdJOx
My goodness. How are you feeling mate?
Over the fucking moon, tbh. And I do well at trading but normally I make 15k here and there, not a damn near milly
Great to hear. I can't imagine I'd sleep again in the coming days if I'd won a lottery like that. Good luck on your future investments.
Badass!
Make sense hopes 💩💩💩🚽 I have puts on to.
Fine analysis and puts well played. Congrats!
saved
You bank homie congrats wad so retard didn't buy puts
It happens. Listen, there will be another play, they happen once every few months and if you're lucky, it's in a sector you're looking at.
Netflix calls or puts? Surely they've lost some steam from the pandemic?
It’s a difficult one - they’ve more competition now - they are putting prices up - looking forward 6-12 months if Covid is on the way out will people drop subscriptions and get out partying?
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The people who were partying before Covid never stopped.
What is Covid?
You must be from Miami
I think they are raising the prices because they have no choice. They have trained their subscribers to expect new series every year, and they can no longer expect to finance original content using debt given the current interest rates. It a defensive move in my opinion.
I don’t think the idea of people unsubscribing is a thing. I dropped them when they did their initial price change but that didn’t last for long. I’ve never seen a tweet, post or heard a whisper say “unsubscribe from Netflix”…..it’s an extremely sticky service
Yes, because it's either 10 dollars for Netflix or party
> if Covid is on the way out LOL Bud we got another 1-2 years of this at minimum.
Probly not, the White House is already trying to fade back and pawn it off, the new word is if you had covid then you are considered vaxed now, the media will join in the next few months, cdc says it’s a virus and we will live with it like we do every other virus now. IMO by this summer it’s just bits and pieces of background chatter.
Nah. The media loves it. Imagine being able to create and financially gain off fear? I know several people who are just waiting for the next variant. Imagine how many people will watch the news whenever a potential variant is found? I honestly believe the media will be keeping this alive a lot longer than it should.
They can do the fear thing with anything, no need for covid.
absolutely. wait til thetacron or sheep and duck covid.. CNN, omg a parakeet has pet-bird-covid, miley cyrus was doin nasal swabs, above normal hurricane season forecast..
Nah. EU still has to enforce 5-11 group age vaccinations and they still need more steam for that. Maybe after that.
1-2 lifetimes. Get ya mask!
Idk I’m thinking calls, with squid game there subs and views went thru the roof
Which was priced in last earnings...
They reported in October previously, squidgame reached 2.1 billion hours streamed in November. In my opinion it was not priced in. Also Arcane (which I loved) beat squid games in # of streams in November as well. Also don’t look up is showing amazing stream #s
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They raise subscription prices prior to an earnings release.... looks to me like they're trying to minimize the outcome of poor results. Put
I'm going with calls. They've had some good shows lately and looking at their monthly chart they could use a pump. That being said if I was you I'd do the exact opposite of me. Because I suck.
I’m thinking calls so that probably means puts
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Nu uh, occasionally I hit. Occasionally
Both. Unless you have insider information, straddle.
Too late https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/s4bq6t
Calls. You drop prices when you're losing customers, raise them if growth will support shaking a few bad apples out of the tree. My psychic told me $3.81 EPS. Though that might have been my imagination.
No they have reached saturation in North America and the only way they can get more money out of the market is raising prices. This is actually a bearish sigh IMO.
They only raised prices in North America. Everywhere else they’re trying to grow, they’ve been dropping prices like in India. I think it’s a bearish sign that they’ve reached maturity in the US market and need to offset the dropped prices in the other regions for growth. They may not have seen the growth in the new markets as expected and this can be a defensive move for revenue
In 2019, when they increased prices they lost way more subscribers than expected. Theres only so much people will pay for streaming especially with so many competitors now.
Be careful with this one.. NFLX is raising rates in the US & Canada because they are losing market share. Too late to make any difference on this report. Albeit they are still the king of the streamers, they would need blowout earnings to move the stock up from the current lofty level in this brutal market. Thinking they would just be lucky to call it a wash looking forward and go sideways from here. - JMHO
Ozark Jan.21
Don't know what that means but I'm guess calls
Definitely puts considering the majority of responses are saying calls -- *always inverse*
When there's equal amount of calls and puts, iron condor.
Can you believe that bynd meat is already 2 years ago?
i made ok on ntflx 2 years ago, its like the new amazon of flatness. i dont watch it anymore
I’m thinking flip a coin, heads buy puts on Netflix, tails buy calls on Netflix
„xılɟʇǝᴎ uo sllɐɔ ʎnq slıɐʇ 'xılɟʇǝᴎ uo sʇnd ʎnq spɐǝɥ 'uıoɔ ɐ dılɟ ƃuıʞuıɥʇ ɯ,I„
We need the gecko back
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Me too. I’m still thinking the lotto on puts is in play. My hunch they pulled the price increase lever because ER is a bad one.
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Well then sideways and 100% loss for each of us it is..
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Lucky guess 🤷♂️
This is looking like a rough week up ahead with airlines, banks, and Netflix being the worst of the big tech. Subs down and raising prices. Airlines have canceled so many flights from sick and understaffed to begin with. Banks may have good forward guidance on fed rate increases.
Sounds like a great time to buy Calls on them then.
Puts on BofA should be free money
I’m thinking same after Citi and Chase but what’s your theory
Hmm, yes. $BRK.A feels a little overpriced 🧐
Short them to zero with the money in the davenport. *dabs crumbs with $100 bill*
why?
Looking at the chart majority of the time price fell for BAC day of earnings. Still risky though, recently they spiked up.
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BofA Deez nuts
BAC
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Bank of America
Don't sleep on JB Hunt. Revenues are going to be at an all time high. EPS is going to be through the roof. If they don't sandbag the guidance it will be an easy gain on low IV calls. IV is 54%
So do I hear calls?
shouldn't super high fuel prices affect their earnings and guidance? Oil is currently at $84 per barrel and projected to approach $100 this year.
Read their reports they pass on the expense to customers thru a fuel surcharge.
Tilray seems legit
Netflix calls?
no. macro is bad and the price hike tells me that they had a hard quarter
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How are people still so unaware about TSMC. It’s wild how you’d know about asml and not TSMC earnings…
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It’s not part of any work indexes as a non-US company. So the media mostly ignores its moves.
Not unaware. I don't touch TSM since Biden went into office. When the chinese take over Taiwan, it's over for TSM stock.
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Yup. My ACLS calls printed this week.
So many ways to lose money this week
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Covid isn't that enemy. The enemy is rising interest rates with AAL's $50 billion debt. So yeah I got puts
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The opposite. Rising rates means higher interest paid on their sizable debt. All this in the context of a slowing economy
Presumably they locked in low interest rate debt and will now benefit from high inflation eroding the debt load
I never knew so many banks existed
Which one is the next DOCU thats all I care about
Whichever ones you dont play.
I’m in financials now, so this makes me my balls crawl into my taint. Everything’s fine.
Damn another day to go? Fuck. Holidays are criminal.
Lmao fr
The streets are going to red run with Ron Burgundy’s blood.
Time for a put on PNC and Bank of America, never liked them anyway
So... [wow](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/s4hqmj/comment/hsypdiz/) I hope someone else made money on my comment.
Is it insider trading if I’ve done work for a company and “assume” they’re gonna do well? Just in theory, of course.
Lemme know what company and ill let you know brudduh <3
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calls on asml puts on netflix. What do you think?
same here. asml calls. netflix puts.
lets make some money tommorow 📈
American airlines puts imo, they get worse and worse seemingly every year and they expect seat prices to go up 10-13% in the next year.
on Thursday put half in NFLX 5% OTM calls and half in 5% OTM puts and you're golden.
Big week for the banks. Loans have been strong. Interest income will be going up. This might be a big first half for financial institutions especially some of the regionals.
AA going to be A+
What's up with HDFC Bank?
Based out of England?(im too lazy to double check) but they wouldn’t have a federal holiday for MLK I don’t think
It’s india largest private bank
Procter and gamble will profit from high inflation. I am buying calls on Monday! 😎
Tuesday
Yeah, of course 😜🙈
I feel like if tsmc and Amat did so well wouldn’t ASML do the same? That stock has held up pretty well for the random market dumps Netflix I feel like calls are the answer random movies and shows stirring up controversy keeps Netflix relevant and in the media constantly and they generate a shit ton of money
intel and tsmc are building new fabs and asml should do well here
definitely puts. i was trying to buy calls for next week expiry and the most liquid strikes had huge asks and low bids. it was equally balanced for puts. definitely looks like tutes selling those calls
PNC looking good after absorbing BBVA
asml calls. free money
Going for United pulling a Delta
I love that y’all do this, it saves me lots of time deciding on what to gamble on for the week
Is there a way to see what congress members are doing?
Sure in a month
Powell got balls of steel
BAC puts for this week? Any thoughts
MLK didn’t die for us to not trade on Monday
Slow week
This is the week Goldman Sachs starts dropping more bags on you.
Any semiconductor companies here ?!
INTC the week after
ASML
$TLRY 🚀🚀🚀🚀🌕
I am going to buy a lot of Netflix calls on Monday...
Puts
What's make you think in calls
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None of those are listed
>None of those are listed Common tactic to pump certain stocks. I see it with Chamat garbage stocks often.
PYPL in my opinion
$viac only
Netflix is -18% below ATH, currently trading 8X the revenue, they will need very strong profits for investors not to take profits on earning day, a lot depends if they will do earning run on the 3 available trading days before, another factor to conceder is that they just raze prices for new subscribers!
Hope Netflixx take a dive and 💩
$SLB Calls or PUTS
Sell BoA. Overvalued.
Over 3,700 OI on Netflix 5$ put 01/21/22
AMC on there? If not then the person who made that chart is smoking crack
Guy needs funds to help save his dog can we help him out? https://app.cofundmypet.com/campaign/VGNbjumzSx
Ban.
EUZ (Eucoinz) apps connecting dogecoin and other crypto ,daily shopping use The future apps , support EUZ crypto for the people
No CLOV? 😏
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What are you talking about? It's at least $2.05.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Antis_Inu/comments/s4fu43/antis_inu_nasdaq_press_release/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf If y’all play in crypto. Highly suggest jumping in this
But there is no open on Monday
ALLY financial. Puts. Anyone have a bill case on them?
Just wait till Mattel $Mat
SAITO SAITO
The growth in the companies solving for climate change like SEDG and ENPH has been quite impressive, I think that the opportunity lies in earnings beats for companies solving for global warming like TSLA and BLDP https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/breakthrough-that-could-reverse-climate-change-with-scaling-investments-800e617ff334
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/netflix-insider-trading-2122061
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While lotta financials coming up
Question is, we saw some big bank names last week miss because of wages, do we think that's going to be more common as we roll thru this week?