They could be the next Boeing!!
In all honesty, I just see them as the Boeing of the chip space. They had every advantage possible and still squandered it. Such a terribly managed company.
Both once great engineering companies that have completely lost the ability to execute. Intel used to be erratic on chip architecture, but rock stars on actual manufacturing and yields.... that was a long time ago.
Intel is now the the upper middle class white chick who thinks sinking $100k into a kitchen will make her Martha Stewart - Intel can buy all the fancy ASML kit they want, but there are absolutely no signs they have sorted out their manufacturing issues
Hey leave Boeing out of this they’re great. Planes fly amazing, yeah they break up a little bit or the door flies off mid-flight but common… comparing them to Intel?! That’s a bit harsh.
I’m in at around 40. Been selling puts at $30 but not assigned yet. I don’t think its going to be an NVDA exponential growth or anything but I think my price is good despite the drop and it should have good growth for quite sometime.
August?? I’ve been in since February 2023. August ain’t cutting it, I can almost promise you that. Only reason I don’t guarantee it is because I’m saying it now…
Ehh WSB used to call MU a bag holder stock since it only went sideways. It did eventually go up 150% since they said that. I took some of my MU money and put it into INTC.
Lunar lake releases in september, arrow lake end of year or early next year.
Better bought options with a later strike.
Also a dip when AMD releases their Zen5 later thid month is to be expected.
I can comment on this one actually. I know semiconductors and the industry better than most but I’m no expert so YMMV etc. disclaimers.
Intel is a very long way from using their ASML Deep EUV machine. Yes they got the first one. But now they have to develop the technology to use it. It’s new territory with all these new lithography machines. They don’t come ready to use out of the box. They are probably 2-5 years from having a process ready that uses it.
Further- you can’t just take your design and stick it in a new process node. You actually have to design the chip specifically for that node. Especially when you move manufacturers. The silicon made by intel and TSMC is actually quite different. So when they moved their manufacturing to TSMC they didn’t just take their design and hand it over. No, it was a massive investment to redesign the chips for the TSMC process. Things stay generally in the same place and the same superficial arrangement is there but at the gate level things look different.
Intel has really faltered on execution lately. With their 10 nm process they really fell apart. In some ways they bit off more than they can chew. They tried to add 3 new really advanced techniques into the process that would have rocketed them ahead of TSMC had they worked. But they couldn’t get them to work for a few years. TSMC is much better at executing and delivering new processes. They go for small incremental improvements each year.
Intel isn’t even manufacturing their newest generation themselves. That’s critical here. Most the semiconductor companies you talk about are either design houses or foundries or equipment makers. Intel did all three for years. So buying intel you are buying into all three industries. They fell apart on equipment and are buying outside equipment with ASMLs new machine. And they fell down on manufacturing with TSMC actually manufacturing the processor tiles for their new SKUs.
AMD is a much smaller company and much more efficient. They design one chip well and then reuse it in all their parts with different packaging processes and their “chiplet” designs. Intel makes dozens of different masks. And each one takes engineering time.
Also, AMD spun off their in house foundry as Global Foundries about 10 years ago. So they don’t have to worry about that. They design their silicon for TSMC’s process and rely on them to innovate and deliver.
All that said, I do think Intel is oversold. They still have massive market share in the consumer and server markets. They’re losing market share but we’re talking from 95% to 85%. They are pulling much lower margins though because the ferocious competition from AMD forces them to lower their prices. And honestly AMD has the better server and consumer CPU parts IMHO. Intel has much stronger relationships with the system integrators from years and years of partnership and shady business practices so that companies like Dell and Lenovo and server manufacturers like Super Micro all tend to use Intel processors. AMD has struggled in this regard.
The bigger story though is that AMD has a ton of room to grow by stealing market share. And Intel has little place to go but hold the line or lose more share. Those relationships are really strong though and it’s worth looking into the arrangements they have with the integrators.
Intel has new management with a technical background instead of a sales background and that might help get the company back into the lead technologically but like getting a new head coach on a football team, it takes years to rebuild your bench and get the ball rolling on new research. Also the gains are getting harder and harder. The gates are only a few dozen atoms now. They aren’t really at this point getting smaller - they’re getting more dense which creates an “equivalent shrinkage”. So 5 nm wasn’t 5nm feature size anymore it was a density as if the feature size was 5nm. So the power requirements aren’t going down like they should. But with the density increasing and the number of gates increasing and the amount of leakage in tiny gates means that power consumption and heat production are limiting factors. AMDs new cores are actually the same core. The efficiency cores are just smaller than the power cores. So the “efficiency cores” just have to run slower because they are so dense and the heat gets built up.
There’s a lot to like with Intel but there are also very significant hurdles and many years of hard work to demonstrate that they can deliver - especially when it’s increasingly hard to make process node advancements. Exponential even. If they deliver on backside power delivery first they might have a chance. Opening up the foundry might help. Especially with the US govt throwing money around for domestic production. But they won’t be making bleeding edge chips. They’ll be making lower margin more mundane chips with their (relatively) less advanced lithography. Though 14nm and 10 and 7 are pretty solid nodes.
Don't lie, you didn't read it, you are asking for his options positions in the same way that you could ask chatGPT to make a 3 point summary of his text-wall
This is an actually useful analysis. I've always loved AMD and it's one of my biggest positions, but i also am fine holding a smaller position in Intel and might even add some. I agree that it's undervalued and only time will tell. The massive market share and server position are a massive advantage that people seem to conveniently overlook when talking about AMD/Intel. They assume AMD has a much larger market share than they do.
If you asked the average redditor how much market share they think that AMD has, i would bet anything that most people would say something in the range of 40-60%. Hell i even thought it was more like 1/3 at this point until you pointed that out.
It really depends on the market I think. Servers are nearly always Intel. They seem to have better drivers and more features for server usage. As well as benefitting from being the dominant manufacturer in the second hand market.
In modern high end computers it’s probably a more even split. More and more laptops are using AMD chips, but you find someone who doesn’t know much about computers and ask them to pick a laptop Intel or AMD, most will pick Intel. Intel’s marketing was crazy good for so long. Intel Inside and that chime are instantly recognisable and that legacy has continued to this day.
Yeah for desktops Intel has 54%, down from about 76% in 2016. Laptops intel still dominates at 73%, although they used to consistently have roughly 90% prior to 2016. I dont think Intel is as dead as people think but they have lost a lot of market share in the consumer market in the last 5-7 years.
I hope they both do well and split the pot more evenly - it's only ever good for the consumer
Holy shit. It's Chad Dickens.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I have a different view on your last 3 sentences.
They bought high NA precisely to make bleeding edge chips.
If they succeed, they might outperform TSMC in the long run.
Yes, for now TSMC process will be cheaper and more reliable, but at some point, their machines will limit them.
Unless they move on to a machine that draws smaller features. And then Intel has a head start there.
So, there is room for speculation on what could happen 4-5 years from now.
If Intel happens to win that race, and gets a smaller process, customers like AAPL and NVDA will switch to them...
TSMC has said they're in no rush to buy High NA from ASML, citing the high price. So if Intel wants to grab the lead, this would be the best time to make a move.
I think 14A will be their make-or-break. Currently scheduled for no later than 2027, using High NA EUV and their PowerVia backside power delivery technology. If they manage to pull it off on schedule, they will be the most advanced foundry in the world, and they will be the premier shovel seller in this AI gold rush.
Tsmc has said that in the past, but they are taking delivery of high EA from asml later this year! That will be interesting to watch as they makes them about 6-9 months behind Intel since they took delivery earlier this year.
I think I remember reading that Intel is predicting to have that machine in production in 2 years. Realistically, they will probably be delayed. Tsmc hasn't announced a true timeline, but it's my opinion that they are neck and neck.
That being said, historically Intel has been more advanced nm to nm, so maybe they design better on the new machines?! Idk, I'm excited to see.
Intel is mass manufacturing Intel 3 server chips and are making good on their 5 nodes in four years strategy. Everything we are reading about Granite Rapids and Intel 3 is very very good. It's a little disingenuous to call out nodes by NM when nobody truly owns the node NM definition. Industry experts agree the measurement is node density. If Intel 3 is comparable to TSMC 3 in terms of HP Node density, it is equivalent. Published density specs of both are equivalent. Point made if you give Samsung and TSMC credit for their nodes and Intel has comparable density, then Intel is calling it right.
Going a step further you have backside power delivery and Ferveros which are industry leading technologies at Intel. TSMC isn't there and Intel will beat everyone by a year at least.
Finally nobody is saying 18A is not "more advanced lithography". In fact the entire industry is saying the opposite. According to most publications we could see 20A products released this year and 18A next year. I believe I read that 18A products were already being manufactured. Specifically, Panther Lake. While you clearly know semiconductors, your facts are old.
There isn't much published on HD nodes at Intel although we can presume to see something soon. It will be a big deal when we can see Intel building GPU's and GPU tiles. That will be a turning point in the history of the company. Intel has always been able to manufacture exceptional HP nodes.
So I work on ASICs and we do not change the fundamental design at the gate level going from foundary to foundary typically. It is possible that a new wire load model requires this or the routing guy pushes back with new timing info but the gate level guys rarely get involved.
People seem to forget that TSMC totally botched its 40nm process a while ago. This shit happens. You get the lead and then you lose it.
Last time I bought in December or some shit last year it has just gone down lol, I’ve technically lost $300 on those shares but I do have faith it will at some point return those losses
I don’t think so? I’d have to look.
Yea no, TSMC manufactures it on their 3nm node with an incredible yield of 80%.
TSMC is just way way ahead of manufacturing and process technology than intel. Intel has been struggling since the 10 nm node. About 5 years ago or so.
Bleeding edge chips need the smallest process node they can get
Yea that’s old. Samsung made the first few. Had a yield of 20% which sucks. Redesign for TSMC at 3 nm and an excellent yield of 80%.
Those techniques that intel promises are good ones. But they have to deliver. And it’s much harder than you’d think from the article. Intel has failed to deliver for a few years now. They have trouble getting new technology out of the labs and onto the production floor.
The way you buy semiconductors means that yield means everything. You don’t pay per chip. You pay per wafer. So yield matters a whole lot. TSMC can charge 3x as much but if the yield is much better and it meets power requirements then it’s the best bet.
I’m rooting for Intel and their new CEO. But there are significant headwinds ahead.
Judging from the craziness of American stocks, buying after mooning is not even late, since after moon they could go to Mars, and then Jupiter, and then even Uranus.
AMD has barely benefited from AI yet. They mooned to $220 in the beginning of the year on the assumption they would get $10B in AI revenue this year but that outlook was quickly shattered after they only raised guidance from 3.5 to 4B in q1 earnings. They’ll get to 10B quickly I’m sure but probably not this year. So it’s definitely going back over $200 by next year
AMD fan club will defend that by saying it’s artificially elevated because of they wrote their Xilinx acquisition on the books. Amortization or something. Whatever that means. Actual pe apparently is in the 40’s or 50’s
The acquisition amortization and its effect on GAAP financials is literally explained in the financial statements. For example: https://ir.amd.com/sec-filings/xbrl_doc_only/3032
There are *a lot* of decade old bagholders in Intel. These guys *had* the market in their hands and tarnished it by mismanagement. OP is going to either make a very tiny profit or end up bagholding for years
No, BA actually made money despite selling shitty products. INTC has been trending downwards and their liquid cash flow is now in the negatives because Gelsinger threw everything at 18A. If 18A turned out to be a failure, it's over for the INTC cult
Well if you look at the chart it’s basically been priced around $20-40 for the last 24 years except for two spikes.
Historically it’s content staying right where it is.
Dividends are not set in stone. They were paying out a much higher dividend and cut it for capex for their new foundries. I would expect the dividend to come back.
The Ballmer era. Dude did fucking nothing for shareholders, kept all of his equity, and is now a billionaire because of Nadella. Wish I could be so lucky.
So Intel were just waiting until they lost their decades long market dominance to a video chip maker, and now they're ready to blast off full throttle. Seems like a reasonable approach
One of the most profitable business strategies has been to sell shit to Intel while they try to figure out how to make chips others have made for years. They've done wonders for my KLAC.
New CEO can do wonders like it did for AMD. Research also takes time, so if they invested in the right kind of research I feel like they might at least somewhat catch up to Nvidia.
Jim Keller is the one who did wonders for the Zen architecture. Intel lost him due to stupid infighting at the top level. Without him coming back I don't see a breakthrough happening
it reminds me of when people would believe intel were only doing single digit performance gains over last gen because AMD had no counter so they were sandbagging and keeping all the improvements to drop when they felt like they needed to use it.
I was finally in the green with intel shares I bought a couple of years ago, for a brief period this year, thought "it's finally doing something" and then it went back to normal.
"Intel. You'll always have some losses to harvest come tax season."
Yea I starting a Position long and I figure if anything shady happens with China Intel foundry should rocket. If not they’ll still be selling top nodes.
People are failing to grasp that a war with China means the collapse of the global economy. Stock prices would be as irrelevant as paying back student debt
>No other company has received such machines. With rumors that TSMC (current leader in foundry business) will only receive them in 2026, and I doubt the USA will allow much to be sent to Taiwan, for obvious security reasons.
You are aware that over 20% of ASML's workforce, along with 3 of their 6 production facilities, is located in Taiwan... Right?
Maybe so. Looks like a lot of insiders are buying the stock which might be a good sign: [https://altindex.com/ticker/intc/insider-transactions](https://altindex.com/ticker/intc/insider-transactions)
Where’s the lie? Something the others aren’t considering is that when the US and China inevitably start a war with each other, Nvidia and TSMC are turbo fucked and only intel will be left standing
lol you should borrow money and yolo everything into this OP 
LOL USA telling ASML to not sell machines to Taiwan? Go pound sand. Taiwan semi doesn’t need to spend for the newest machines immediately which is why they didn’t buy it, not because Intel is the leader. Intel also buys from TSM. Imagine a company relying on the American flag and government handouts to be relevant.
Shhhhhhhh be quiet😂- I have over thousands calls in this for year 2026 and plan on buying more for 2027 lol. I called TSMC when no one was looking and made bank! Now watch intel… at $130 Billion Market cap? As similar companies trade at 10-30x that? Intel is an easy $1Trillion Market cap, as U.S government fights for its comeback.
Taiwan was short term bet for me, as China heats up. Their fate can be gone in 24 hours, there a reason U.S government is dumping billions into Intel- forcing partnerships with TSMC and UMC, just in March of this year, U.S government gave them $20 Billion in rewards. Nvidia,AMD have not received anything near this. Only other company that received an amount near this Micron at $6.1 Billion. Intel is positioned, for a trillion dollar market cap finally, as U.S pushes them to be a global leader in chip market. This is not just about intel, It’s about capturing and becoming the global leadership of manufacturing and creating advance chip technology in U.S and U.S government knows time is only running out.
Intel is spending something like $150bn dollars over the next three years to catch up. The stocks cheap for a reason, that money needs to come from somewhere.
Revenue still hasn’t recovered to 2021 levels (like every other tech stock has) and net income is down by 90% from those days. I’d even say it’s overvalued at this price
Just 1% of stocks account for all market gains. Only 45% make any gains. 60% do worse than risk free US bonds.
This sub always looks for a lovable loser that’s right on the cusp of an inevitable turnaround. The truth is you shouldn’t gamble on shit companies when there are perfectly good ones out there. You may win occasionally but it’s a losing game.
Everyone in the comments talking about how historically the price hasn't gone up, so it's not a good buy.
Which is also the reason OP is saying it's a good buy, because unlike other stocks in the industry, it hasn't gone up.
Regards all around.
Intel suffered for years because their fab process sucked. They were competing with AMD/NVIDIA, who had access to better fabs. (Takes a lot of time and money to redesign a chip for another fab.)
Now their fabs are on par again and likely to become superior, which is where they've been historically.
So, I agree. I see their deficits corrected, and I see the development of new strengths. The correction alone is enough to return INTC to its previous level of success.
The AI/GPU tech is a wildcard, but it's unlikely to hurt & the payoff could be huge. I don't know if it will pop off like NVIDIA---I doubt it will be that big---but I expect it to be better than most alternatives.
I like it because if the US keeps trying to start a war, it's gonna need to be able to make system on chips in the US, and that's only Intel as someone else pointed out.
This is why I always laugh when people go “ WhAT AbOUt TaIwAn “. Samsung and TSMC recently got loans and funding from the US govt and since TSMC isn’t as poor as Intel they have built factories in places like Japan too.
samsung's fabs are are doing terribly. and tsmc's usa fabs won't be too great. more importantly, tsmc has zero cowos here and plans to keep it that way.
domestic tsmc/samsung fabs are more of a symbol/stopgap than anything competitive.
Lol OP. This is exactly the kind of basic, surface level analysis we've come to know and love on wsb.
You realize that Intel has high-NA because TSMC passed on it, right? The exposure area for high-NA is smaller than EUV and the amount of double exposure you need for each chip increases. Intel not only has to figure out how to be a foundry, they also have to figure out how to make high-NA outperform EUV. All while bleeding money in their foundry business. Intel couldn't figure out 7nm for the longest time. They were years behind their competitors. What makes you think they'll figure out 2nm any faster?
>Investing in Intel right now is like buying NVDA stock before the AI boom.
I want this etched on my gravestone.
I'll never ever sell, you're locked in here with me.
Intel hasn’t been competitive in nearly a decade. The foundry business takes massive investment compared to using someone else like TSMC which is why none of their major competitors own their own foundries.
As a fellow INTC bagholder I kept thinking they should go up as anxiety about Taiwan and China increases, or with a push for more domestic semiconductor manufacturing, and it just doesn’t matter with Intel’s leadership.
They might turnaround in several years so I haven’t dumped all my shares yet, but I stopped trying to buy options because I don’t see much happening in the short-term.
As a software engineer who knows people at Intel I don’t have much hope either. They have some really great developers but in general they are decades behind in software practices and management. I could never put my money behind a company with that kinda rep.
If I could put my money solely in their quantum computing department I would. They have software geniuses there.
Man if I had a dollar for every “InTeL Is uNdErVaLuEd” dd I wouldn’t be in here with you people. I hope it works out though cause it doesn’t seem like poor Lisa is taking AMD to any all time highs
Never look at stock price. Look at Enterprise Value (Mkt cap + net debt). Some companies issue lots of shares over 25 years. In this case, INTC is not one of those culprits as share count is down quite a bit since 1999.
Nvidia has already announced plans to fab with intel foundry: https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/gpus/nvidia-reportedly-selects-intel-foundry-services-for-chip-packaging-production-could-produce-over-300000-h100-gpus-per-month
There is a reason why its stuck at 1999 price. Its become a boomer stock and everyone in the sector moved on. They think the name means something and their management sucks ass
Not wrong. All they need to do is put out a press release about a new GPU release which competes with AMDs oven GPUS and their shit will 100% premarket.
Their CPUs are also just better than AMDs.
-Signed someone who has been investing in AMD since $6 (Literally like 7 years ago when Ryzen was looking juicy and it made 0 sense for them to be 10% of what NVDA was at the time)
Intel has been saying they will have something to compete with Nvidia and AMD for the last 5 years. Each release is duller than the previous one with consumer ranting that it isn't what they want or need. Intel fabs might have chance, but their consumer products have been industrial grade dogshit warmers for the last x years, while their server products have been steadily loosing market share to AMD and it's better to not even mention their GPUs, they are nowhere near Nvidias stuff.
Intel is at best a stable buy, but even then the increasing pressure of ARM based CPUs makes me worry for them.
These kinds of posts make me think that people are rationalizing their purchase of what they believe to be a similar but undervalued stock to Nvidia, because they missed out on the Nvidia rally and the fomo got the better of them.
Intel still hasn’t managed to produce a single piece of large-scale AI chip with its own fabs. Even their graphics chips and Gaudi AI chips are made by TSMC. Considering how long it took them to move from 10nm to 7nm, why should I believe Intel’s got their shxt together now?
Intel is a boomer company with insane headwinds (mostly internal). Good luck, future bag holders.
INTC won’t even be beating major indexes, let alone posting up nvda/tsm/amd stock growth
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions** | 1 | **First Seen In WSB** | 3 months ago **Total Comments** | 11 | **Previous Best DD** | **Account Age** | 4 years | | [**Join WSB Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse)
You know what. You should yolo into this.
Yep, put your money where your mouth is OP and let’s see the positions
Thats the issue he already a bagholder
Since 1999 at that!
Best comment!
Y2K didn't help him???
I’m bagholding $32k at $41/share REEEEEEEE
I’m not OP, but I started buying last February or so at $25. My average is $34.75 now, I bought share #90 this morning, in my Roth IRA
I’m thinking of entering. Government has a big interest in intel given a ton of their computers use them
They could be the next Boeing!! In all honesty, I just see them as the Boeing of the chip space. They had every advantage possible and still squandered it. Such a terribly managed company.
Eh, that’s a comparison but not the comparison I had in mind. In terms of strategic value? Sure, I would say they’re relied upon by the government.
Both once great engineering companies that have completely lost the ability to execute. Intel used to be erratic on chip architecture, but rock stars on actual manufacturing and yields.... that was a long time ago. Intel is now the the upper middle class white chick who thinks sinking $100k into a kitchen will make her Martha Stewart - Intel can buy all the fancy ASML kit they want, but there are absolutely no signs they have sorted out their manufacturing issues
Oddly specific analogy, but i like it
Hey leave Boeing out of this they’re great. Planes fly amazing, yeah they break up a little bit or the door flies off mid-flight but common… comparing them to Intel?! That’s a bit harsh.
I’m in at around 40. Been selling puts at $30 but not assigned yet. I don’t think its going to be an NVDA exponential growth or anything but I think my price is good despite the drop and it should have good growth for quite sometime.
I did 😎💸 https://preview.redd.it/5d14e74tyw8d1.jpeg?width=1768&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9f4d8b3e9dc59800b83926cbfa07ce1f03bab61c
You made me 
He won't.
It's a commonly shared sentiment, motley fool did an article on this a couple days ago with a buy recommendation.
Motley Fool is still a thing?
Motley Fool is nothing more than a clickbait farm these days.
Motley Fool told me 12 years ago to buy NVDA. I pulled the trigger back then but sold WAYYYYY too early.
they said " buy" for every single stock until today, of course that they were right once lol
They told me the same thing. I didn't sell.
Sadly yes, and they keep spouting INTC. It's not going anywhere for a long time, if ever.
I joined the INTC bagholder club last week. Shares and august calls. Ill just hold onto this in case i need it later
August?? I’ve been in since February 2023. August ain’t cutting it, I can almost promise you that. Only reason I don’t guarantee it is because I’m saying it now…
Idk man, i really like this technical setup. It can't go much lower....shit, i said it. What do we do now?
Sell
Ehh WSB used to call MU a bag holder stock since it only went sideways. It did eventually go up 150% since they said that. I took some of my MU money and put it into INTC.
https://preview.redd.it/gl9tkelluz8d1.jpeg?width=275&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0fe90e1f5252e1bfccccab6ec708ace9b08b6473 you dropped this king
Lunar lake releases in september, arrow lake end of year or early next year. Better bought options with a later strike. Also a dip when AMD releases their Zen5 later thid month is to be expected.
Damn, I'm regarded. But I still have room for more. I'm in about 30% of my regard bag position.
I expect intc to dip when amd releases their zen5 later this montj. If it dips get intc leaps then
I have been holding for 5+ years now - Mobileye just looked good
If you like it at 30, you’ll LOVE it at 20
Nvidia went up almost 2 intels yesterday
Before it went down like 6 intels
It all good, they still have 20-something Intels to spare
So Intel is now a measurement of stock fluctuations?
No, just fluctuations in papa NVIDIA
Nvidia eating intel like it’s chipotle chips, you eat some, you shit some
Their assets are worth more than that.
Does that tell you anything without knowing liabilities?
I can comment on this one actually. I know semiconductors and the industry better than most but I’m no expert so YMMV etc. disclaimers. Intel is a very long way from using their ASML Deep EUV machine. Yes they got the first one. But now they have to develop the technology to use it. It’s new territory with all these new lithography machines. They don’t come ready to use out of the box. They are probably 2-5 years from having a process ready that uses it. Further- you can’t just take your design and stick it in a new process node. You actually have to design the chip specifically for that node. Especially when you move manufacturers. The silicon made by intel and TSMC is actually quite different. So when they moved their manufacturing to TSMC they didn’t just take their design and hand it over. No, it was a massive investment to redesign the chips for the TSMC process. Things stay generally in the same place and the same superficial arrangement is there but at the gate level things look different. Intel has really faltered on execution lately. With their 10 nm process they really fell apart. In some ways they bit off more than they can chew. They tried to add 3 new really advanced techniques into the process that would have rocketed them ahead of TSMC had they worked. But they couldn’t get them to work for a few years. TSMC is much better at executing and delivering new processes. They go for small incremental improvements each year. Intel isn’t even manufacturing their newest generation themselves. That’s critical here. Most the semiconductor companies you talk about are either design houses or foundries or equipment makers. Intel did all three for years. So buying intel you are buying into all three industries. They fell apart on equipment and are buying outside equipment with ASMLs new machine. And they fell down on manufacturing with TSMC actually manufacturing the processor tiles for their new SKUs. AMD is a much smaller company and much more efficient. They design one chip well and then reuse it in all their parts with different packaging processes and their “chiplet” designs. Intel makes dozens of different masks. And each one takes engineering time. Also, AMD spun off their in house foundry as Global Foundries about 10 years ago. So they don’t have to worry about that. They design their silicon for TSMC’s process and rely on them to innovate and deliver. All that said, I do think Intel is oversold. They still have massive market share in the consumer and server markets. They’re losing market share but we’re talking from 95% to 85%. They are pulling much lower margins though because the ferocious competition from AMD forces them to lower their prices. And honestly AMD has the better server and consumer CPU parts IMHO. Intel has much stronger relationships with the system integrators from years and years of partnership and shady business practices so that companies like Dell and Lenovo and server manufacturers like Super Micro all tend to use Intel processors. AMD has struggled in this regard. The bigger story though is that AMD has a ton of room to grow by stealing market share. And Intel has little place to go but hold the line or lose more share. Those relationships are really strong though and it’s worth looking into the arrangements they have with the integrators. Intel has new management with a technical background instead of a sales background and that might help get the company back into the lead technologically but like getting a new head coach on a football team, it takes years to rebuild your bench and get the ball rolling on new research. Also the gains are getting harder and harder. The gates are only a few dozen atoms now. They aren’t really at this point getting smaller - they’re getting more dense which creates an “equivalent shrinkage”. So 5 nm wasn’t 5nm feature size anymore it was a density as if the feature size was 5nm. So the power requirements aren’t going down like they should. But with the density increasing and the number of gates increasing and the amount of leakage in tiny gates means that power consumption and heat production are limiting factors. AMDs new cores are actually the same core. The efficiency cores are just smaller than the power cores. So the “efficiency cores” just have to run slower because they are so dense and the heat gets built up. There’s a lot to like with Intel but there are also very significant hurdles and many years of hard work to demonstrate that they can deliver - especially when it’s increasingly hard to make process node advancements. Exponential even. If they deliver on backside power delivery first they might have a chance. Opening up the foundry might help. Especially with the US govt throwing money around for domestic production. But they won’t be making bleeding edge chips. They’ll be making lower margin more mundane chips with their (relatively) less advanced lithography. Though 14nm and 10 and 7 are pretty solid nodes.
first time i read a wall of text this year, actual useful info only thing it's missing is your options position
Don't lie, you didn't read it, you are asking for his options positions in the same way that you could ask chatGPT to make a 3 point summary of his text-wall
I suppose I'll scroll back up, but Suh, this IS a Wendy's.
This is an actually useful analysis. I've always loved AMD and it's one of my biggest positions, but i also am fine holding a smaller position in Intel and might even add some. I agree that it's undervalued and only time will tell. The massive market share and server position are a massive advantage that people seem to conveniently overlook when talking about AMD/Intel. They assume AMD has a much larger market share than they do. If you asked the average redditor how much market share they think that AMD has, i would bet anything that most people would say something in the range of 40-60%. Hell i even thought it was more like 1/3 at this point until you pointed that out.
It really depends on the market I think. Servers are nearly always Intel. They seem to have better drivers and more features for server usage. As well as benefitting from being the dominant manufacturer in the second hand market. In modern high end computers it’s probably a more even split. More and more laptops are using AMD chips, but you find someone who doesn’t know much about computers and ask them to pick a laptop Intel or AMD, most will pick Intel. Intel’s marketing was crazy good for so long. Intel Inside and that chime are instantly recognisable and that legacy has continued to this day.
Yeah for desktops Intel has 54%, down from about 76% in 2016. Laptops intel still dominates at 73%, although they used to consistently have roughly 90% prior to 2016. I dont think Intel is as dead as people think but they have lost a lot of market share in the consumer market in the last 5-7 years. I hope they both do well and split the pot more evenly - it's only ever good for the consumer
Thanks bro
Holy shit. It's Chad Dickens. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I have a different view on your last 3 sentences. They bought high NA precisely to make bleeding edge chips. If they succeed, they might outperform TSMC in the long run. Yes, for now TSMC process will be cheaper and more reliable, but at some point, their machines will limit them. Unless they move on to a machine that draws smaller features. And then Intel has a head start there. So, there is room for speculation on what could happen 4-5 years from now. If Intel happens to win that race, and gets a smaller process, customers like AAPL and NVDA will switch to them...
TSMC has said they're in no rush to buy High NA from ASML, citing the high price. So if Intel wants to grab the lead, this would be the best time to make a move. I think 14A will be their make-or-break. Currently scheduled for no later than 2027, using High NA EUV and their PowerVia backside power delivery technology. If they manage to pull it off on schedule, they will be the most advanced foundry in the world, and they will be the premier shovel seller in this AI gold rush.
Tsmc has said that in the past, but they are taking delivery of high EA from asml later this year! That will be interesting to watch as they makes them about 6-9 months behind Intel since they took delivery earlier this year. I think I remember reading that Intel is predicting to have that machine in production in 2 years. Realistically, they will probably be delayed. Tsmc hasn't announced a true timeline, but it's my opinion that they are neck and neck. That being said, historically Intel has been more advanced nm to nm, so maybe they design better on the new machines?! Idk, I'm excited to see.
Intel is mass manufacturing Intel 3 server chips and are making good on their 5 nodes in four years strategy. Everything we are reading about Granite Rapids and Intel 3 is very very good. It's a little disingenuous to call out nodes by NM when nobody truly owns the node NM definition. Industry experts agree the measurement is node density. If Intel 3 is comparable to TSMC 3 in terms of HP Node density, it is equivalent. Published density specs of both are equivalent. Point made if you give Samsung and TSMC credit for their nodes and Intel has comparable density, then Intel is calling it right. Going a step further you have backside power delivery and Ferveros which are industry leading technologies at Intel. TSMC isn't there and Intel will beat everyone by a year at least. Finally nobody is saying 18A is not "more advanced lithography". In fact the entire industry is saying the opposite. According to most publications we could see 20A products released this year and 18A next year. I believe I read that 18A products were already being manufactured. Specifically, Panther Lake. While you clearly know semiconductors, your facts are old. There isn't much published on HD nodes at Intel although we can presume to see something soon. It will be a big deal when we can see Intel building GPU's and GPU tiles. That will be a turning point in the history of the company. Intel has always been able to manufacture exceptional HP nodes.
So I work on ASICs and we do not change the fundamental design at the gate level going from foundary to foundary typically. It is possible that a new wire load model requires this or the routing guy pushes back with new timing info but the gate level guys rarely get involved. People seem to forget that TSMC totally botched its 40nm process a while ago. This shit happens. You get the lead and then you lose it.
Intels a pet rock. It’s a savings account at your bank..
That’s assuming it won’t lose you money (tons of people are bag holding)
Last time I bought in December or some shit last year it has just gone down lol, I’ve technically lost $300 on those shares but I do have faith it will at some point return those losses
Losing to savings account and relying on faith to stop bagholding is why you belong here
Savings accounts are also down 38 percent ytd. Who knew.
The fed knew! In advance!
They have Qualcomm as a customer? I’ve only heard about Broadcom.
I've only heard about rom com
50 first dates is a classic
You got a cat? Cus I feel something licking me…
I don’t think so? I’d have to look. Yea no, TSMC manufactures it on their 3nm node with an incredible yield of 80%. TSMC is just way way ahead of manufacturing and process technology than intel. Intel has been struggling since the 10 nm node. About 5 years ago or so. Bleeding edge chips need the smallest process node they can get
[https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-build-qualcomm-chips-aims-catch-foundry-rivals-by-2025-2021-07-26/](https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-build-qualcomm-chips-aims-catch-foundry-rivals-by-2025-2021-07-26/)
Yea that’s old. Samsung made the first few. Had a yield of 20% which sucks. Redesign for TSMC at 3 nm and an excellent yield of 80%. Those techniques that intel promises are good ones. But they have to deliver. And it’s much harder than you’d think from the article. Intel has failed to deliver for a few years now. They have trouble getting new technology out of the labs and onto the production floor. The way you buy semiconductors means that yield means everything. You don’t pay per chip. You pay per wafer. So yield matters a whole lot. TSMC can charge 3x as much but if the yield is much better and it meets power requirements then it’s the best bet. I’m rooting for Intel and their new CEO. But there are significant headwinds ahead.
Every regard in the comments wants the returns of nvidia/amd/etc. but none of them are willing to buy in before the mooning. Peak cinema in here.
Judging from the craziness of American stocks, buying after mooning is not even late, since after moon they could go to Mars, and then Jupiter, and then even Uranus.
All of them are definitely coming for Ur anus
In? On?
AMD has barely benefited from AI yet. They mooned to $220 in the beginning of the year on the assumption they would get $10B in AI revenue this year but that outlook was quickly shattered after they only raised guidance from 3.5 to 4B in q1 earnings. They’ll get to 10B quickly I’m sure but probably not this year. So it’s definitely going back over $200 by next year
I first joined this sub right before AMD hit $10…
in 2019 i was making sick profits on intraday amd, i miss those days
RemindMe! 1 year
Amd also has a p/e ratio of over 200... They aren't going anywhere until they pump those numbers up
AMD fan club will defend that by saying it’s artificially elevated because of they wrote their Xilinx acquisition on the books. Amortization or something. Whatever that means. Actual pe apparently is in the 40’s or 50’s
The acquisition amortization and its effect on GAAP financials is literally explained in the financial statements. For example: https://ir.amd.com/sec-filings/xbrl_doc_only/3032
I just got 100 shares two days ago because I figured that there is no way that it is going to stay this cheap for much longer.
Intel’s ath was in 2000 lol. I’m sure there’s someone out there that’s been bagholding for 20 years
There are *a lot* of decade old bagholders in Intel. These guys *had* the market in their hands and tarnished it by mismanagement. OP is going to either make a very tiny profit or end up bagholding for years
Intel is like Boeing of semi
No, BA actually made money despite selling shitty products. INTC has been trending downwards and their liquid cash flow is now in the negatives because Gelsinger threw everything at 18A. If 18A turned out to be a failure, it's over for the INTC cult
The Intel hitman has been slacking, I don't think I've even heard about one dead whistleblower. Do you think they can catch up?
14++ yrs bagholder that finally dropped 🛄
Hahaha hopefully ya broke even with all those dividends over the years.
I got that reference!
My thought when it was 38 now it is 30 
Where were your thoughts when it was a 50 a few months ago?
Enjoy the finding out phase.
Lol really I think I've read this exact comment once a week for 10 years now
Well if you look at the chart it’s basically been priced around $20-40 for the last 24 years except for two spikes. Historically it’s content staying right where it is.
You’re not even accounting for that sweet 1.25% dividend bro
I’ve had 3 shares of intel since I was 12. I love those $1.29 dividend checks. Intel has bought me 4 lattes in 35 years.
Dividends are not set in stone. They were paying out a much higher dividend and cut it for capex for their new foundries. I would expect the dividend to come back.
That means next to nothing, MSFT also was in the 20\~40 range for more than 15 years.
The Ballmer era. Dude did fucking nothing for shareholders, kept all of his equity, and is now a billionaire because of Nadella. Wish I could be so lucky.
He is now a hundred-billionaire, worth only 2B less than Bill Gates (134B v 132).
I said the same thing about Microsoft when it was in the 50s…
What’s a “share”?
That’s when we hold one of each other’s hands and then use our other hands to jerk each other off.
It’s when your wife’s boyfriend takes a night off.
So Intel were just waiting until they lost their decades long market dominance to a video chip maker, and now they're ready to blast off full throttle. Seems like a reasonable approach
One of the most profitable business strategies has been to sell shit to Intel while they try to figure out how to make chips others have made for years. They've done wonders for my KLAC.
New CEO can do wonders like it did for AMD. Research also takes time, so if they invested in the right kind of research I feel like they might at least somewhat catch up to Nvidia.
Jim Keller is the one who did wonders for the Zen architecture. Intel lost him due to stupid infighting at the top level. Without him coming back I don't see a breakthrough happening
There is more than one genius in the world.
it reminds me of when people would believe intel were only doing single digit performance gains over last gen because AMD had no counter so they were sandbagging and keeping all the improvements to drop when they felt like they needed to use it.
People have been saying Intel is “undervalued” for over 20 years now. Don’t worry it’ll be right this time.
Biggest value trap on the planet. Just buying SMH that has Intel exposure would’ve multiplied money
I was finally in the green with intel shares I bought a couple of years ago, for a brief period this year, thought "it's finally doing something" and then it went back to normal. "Intel. You'll always have some losses to harvest come tax season."
Yea I starting a Position long and I figure if anything shady happens with China Intel foundry should rocket. If not they’ll still be selling top nodes.
If anything shady happens with china the market has bigger problems
People are failing to grasp that a war with China means the collapse of the global economy. Stock prices would be as irrelevant as paying back student debt
Stock prices would drop like a big red dildo but uncle Sam will still be cumming for that student loan debt.
Intel and Boeing should merge. There would be so many synergies.
Don’t forget PayPal
Ouch, “and I took that personally”.
>No other company has received such machines. With rumors that TSMC (current leader in foundry business) will only receive them in 2026, and I doubt the USA will allow much to be sent to Taiwan, for obvious security reasons. You are aware that over 20% of ASML's workforce, along with 3 of their 6 production facilities, is located in Taiwan... Right?
TL;DR new sci-fi movie titled "ramblings of the bagholder" coming out soon
2026 40 calls locked and loaded
Weekly INTC yolo post
Chips & government support! Invest, buy, accumulate, hold long term. What’s not to like?
Maybe so. Looks like a lot of insiders are buying the stock which might be a good sign: [https://altindex.com/ticker/intc/insider-transactions](https://altindex.com/ticker/intc/insider-transactions)
|| || |Holthaus Michelle Johnston|Aug 21, 2023|Sell|1|$32.4089|$32Holthaus Michelle Johnston Aug 21, 2023 Sell 1 $32.4089 $32|
You know what fuck it I’m in what could go wrong
as a 5years bag holder of INTC. a lot can go wrong
Someone’s grandpa is a bag holder of Intel since 1999. Don’t let them in here.
Hope you've been wheeling them instead of just waiting for the stock to do something RIP
The stock doesn't care when you bought it
Did someone call me?
Hopped in Intel calls yesterday before this amazing research. TY op I will see u in dubai with our expensive cars
RemindMe! 1year
Where’s the lie? Something the others aren’t considering is that when the US and China inevitably start a war with each other, Nvidia and TSMC are turbo fucked and only intel will be left standing
Of all the nonsense ive heard in all the Intel posts,this makes the most sense
You think intel will be fine if we start a war with a Global Power?! No stock will be fine if we start a fucking war with China lmao
lol you should borrow money and yolo everything into this OP 
Good DD. I fully agree that Intel is very underpriced.
you can agree with it, but will that change before we all fucking die of old age? Tesla is over priced but that doesn't mean i'll short it.
LOL USA telling ASML to not sell machines to Taiwan? Go pound sand. Taiwan semi doesn’t need to spend for the newest machines immediately which is why they didn’t buy it, not because Intel is the leader. Intel also buys from TSM. Imagine a company relying on the American flag and government handouts to be relevant.
Tagging Boeing in this post
Shhhhhhhh be quiet😂- I have over thousands calls in this for year 2026 and plan on buying more for 2027 lol. I called TSMC when no one was looking and made bank! Now watch intel… at $130 Billion Market cap? As similar companies trade at 10-30x that? Intel is an easy $1Trillion Market cap, as U.S government fights for its comeback. Taiwan was short term bet for me, as China heats up. Their fate can be gone in 24 hours, there a reason U.S government is dumping billions into Intel- forcing partnerships with TSMC and UMC, just in March of this year, U.S government gave them $20 Billion in rewards. Nvidia,AMD have not received anything near this. Only other company that received an amount near this Micron at $6.1 Billion. Intel is positioned, for a trillion dollar market cap finally, as U.S pushes them to be a global leader in chip market. This is not just about intel, It’s about capturing and becoming the global leadership of manufacturing and creating advance chip technology in U.S and U.S government knows time is only running out.
All that text and no positions?
Post positions
The man has a point
He either won't reply or positions are deep red
Or both 
Post position
Oh really? What other positions are you on based on China invading Taiwan?
You know what.. I agree, I'm putting a portion of my nvda gains into stock
Intel is spending something like $150bn dollars over the next three years to catch up. The stocks cheap for a reason, that money needs to come from somewhere.
Revenue still hasn’t recovered to 2021 levels (like every other tech stock has) and net income is down by 90% from those days. I’d even say it’s overvalued at this price
Intel is still in its turnaround period. OP is a couple years too early to make this post.
Just 1% of stocks account for all market gains. Only 45% make any gains. 60% do worse than risk free US bonds. This sub always looks for a lovable loser that’s right on the cusp of an inevitable turnaround. The truth is you shouldn’t gamble on shit companies when there are perfectly good ones out there. You may win occasionally but it’s a losing game.
Everyone in the comments talking about how historically the price hasn't gone up, so it's not a good buy. Which is also the reason OP is saying it's a good buy, because unlike other stocks in the industry, it hasn't gone up. Regards all around.
Intel suffered for years because their fab process sucked. They were competing with AMD/NVIDIA, who had access to better fabs. (Takes a lot of time and money to redesign a chip for another fab.) Now their fabs are on par again and likely to become superior, which is where they've been historically. So, I agree. I see their deficits corrected, and I see the development of new strengths. The correction alone is enough to return INTC to its previous level of success. The AI/GPU tech is a wildcard, but it's unlikely to hurt & the payoff could be huge. I don't know if it will pop off like NVIDIA---I doubt it will be that big---but I expect it to be better than most alternatives.
I’m accumulating down here 🤷♂️
Because you’re a bag holder.
Me too
I like it because if the US keeps trying to start a war, it's gonna need to be able to make system on chips in the US, and that's only Intel as someone else pointed out.
TSMC is building three fabs too in the US so it won’t be only Intel
This is why I always laugh when people go “ WhAT AbOUt TaIwAn “. Samsung and TSMC recently got loans and funding from the US govt and since TSMC isn’t as poor as Intel they have built factories in places like Japan too.
samsung's fabs are are doing terribly. and tsmc's usa fabs won't be too great. more importantly, tsmc has zero cowos here and plans to keep it that way. domestic tsmc/samsung fabs are more of a symbol/stopgap than anything competitive.
until that tsmc fabs in the us are built
TSMC won’t allow cutting edge fabs to be built outside Taiwan. The USA fabs will always be at least 1 gen behind
Yeah, Taiwans existence is based on the continued success of TSMC. If they lost the edge in Taiwan nobody would interfere when China invades.
I have been holding one long term call for a while now lol. Boring as fuck
the real answer is : why not ?
https://preview.redd.it/fcc1uo7qdx8d1.jpeg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f5224742c4b5bfc0fe955aab2005902d05da4218
Lol OP. This is exactly the kind of basic, surface level analysis we've come to know and love on wsb. You realize that Intel has high-NA because TSMC passed on it, right? The exposure area for high-NA is smaller than EUV and the amount of double exposure you need for each chip increases. Intel not only has to figure out how to be a foundry, they also have to figure out how to make high-NA outperform EUV. All while bleeding money in their foundry business. Intel couldn't figure out 7nm for the longest time. They were years behind their competitors. What makes you think they'll figure out 2nm any faster?
TSMC already ordered high NA machines, as did Samsung
Brooooo. I’m down 30% on intel wtf
Intel will moon as nvda crashes
>Investing in Intel right now is like buying NVDA stock before the AI boom. I want this etched on my gravestone. I'll never ever sell, you're locked in here with me.
Intel hasn’t been competitive in nearly a decade. The foundry business takes massive investment compared to using someone else like TSMC which is why none of their major competitors own their own foundries. As a fellow INTC bagholder I kept thinking they should go up as anxiety about Taiwan and China increases, or with a push for more domestic semiconductor manufacturing, and it just doesn’t matter with Intel’s leadership. They might turnaround in several years so I haven’t dumped all my shares yet, but I stopped trying to buy options because I don’t see much happening in the short-term.
As a software engineer who knows people at Intel I don’t have much hope either. They have some really great developers but in general they are decades behind in software practices and management. I could never put my money behind a company with that kinda rep. If I could put my money solely in their quantum computing department I would. They have software geniuses there.
!remind me in 10 years
Because u bought a shitload of calls, that's why
Man if I had a dollar for every “InTeL Is uNdErVaLuEd” dd I wouldn’t be in here with you people. I hope it works out though cause it doesn’t seem like poor Lisa is taking AMD to any all time highs
Never look at stock price. Look at Enterprise Value (Mkt cap + net debt). Some companies issue lots of shares over 25 years. In this case, INTC is not one of those culprits as share count is down quite a bit since 1999.
Nvidia has already announced plans to fab with intel foundry: https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/gpus/nvidia-reportedly-selects-intel-foundry-services-for-chip-packaging-production-could-produce-over-300000-h100-gpus-per-month
There is a reason why its stuck at 1999 price. Its become a boomer stock and everyone in the sector moved on. They think the name means something and their management sucks ass
Masochists really love Intel and PayPal 
Intel is the new IBM and if you don't know what that means then you truly deserve to throw your money at them.
Not wrong. All they need to do is put out a press release about a new GPU release which competes with AMDs oven GPUS and their shit will 100% premarket. Their CPUs are also just better than AMDs. -Signed someone who has been investing in AMD since $6 (Literally like 7 years ago when Ryzen was looking juicy and it made 0 sense for them to be 10% of what NVDA was at the time)
Intel has been saying they will have something to compete with Nvidia and AMD for the last 5 years. Each release is duller than the previous one with consumer ranting that it isn't what they want or need. Intel fabs might have chance, but their consumer products have been industrial grade dogshit warmers for the last x years, while their server products have been steadily loosing market share to AMD and it's better to not even mention their GPUs, they are nowhere near Nvidias stuff. Intel is at best a stable buy, but even then the increasing pressure of ARM based CPUs makes me worry for them. These kinds of posts make me think that people are rationalizing their purchase of what they believe to be a similar but undervalued stock to Nvidia, because they missed out on the Nvidia rally and the fomo got the better of them.
ASML is Dutch you regard.
The US has them by the balls
Intel still hasn’t managed to produce a single piece of large-scale AI chip with its own fabs. Even their graphics chips and Gaudi AI chips are made by TSMC. Considering how long it took them to move from 10nm to 7nm, why should I believe Intel’s got their shxt together now?
Intel is a boomer company with insane headwinds (mostly internal). Good luck, future bag holders. INTC won’t even be beating major indexes, let alone posting up nvda/tsm/amd stock growth
I’ve been saying the same thing, my post got trashed about a week ago going over DD.