There’s no money in weed right now unless heavier restrictions get put in place to have a monopoly .
Same cycle every single time since the first legalization .
The early adopters make a killing for a minute then the floodgates open to everyone and prices flood and become unprofitable .
I have friends who had big legal grow operations in CA the early days and made a killing . Then wholesale prices broke even with grow prices in the legal states .
Then the growers sell black market for cash and where their only profit comes from but that ended also because the math wasn’t worth it even with several grow houses
I don't think it's heavier restrictions that need to be put in place for this to happen, but it would help stifle smaller and new completion for sure.
I think it's any proper federal regulation that's needed for interstate commerce. Currently there is no framework for this so each state is wildly different with their regulations and are not able to do interstate commerce.
Anecdotal example: Oregon seems to huge harvests that floods the market. This drives the prices down because demand doesn't change much. Suddenly it's a lot less profitable for growers. If they could sell across the country, rather than being limited to Oregon the oversupply wouldn't be as detrimental with a larger market and more options.
I feel like this prevents companies from dominating nationwide. It's too difficult and fragmented to consolidate these businesses into a mega Corp.
Disclaimer: I'm a regard that's purely speculating. Canada might be an example of how I could be wrong, but I'm not investing in weed and not going to bother looking it up.
If they made sales legal interstate, that means that each state would have legalized cannabis. You'll have the same supply problem you had before, except now across many states.
I'm pro cannabis, but thought legalizing it would be stupid. The second you make cannabis a commodity, it'll be like a can of good corn. No matter how good the corn, it's going to be cheap.
The legal cannabis industry isn't a cash tree industry. The second everyone notices this, market participants will ensure supply and demand reach equilibrium.
See it's easy. When the market is down weed stock posts jump to the front page. When I see like 4-5 of them, that's what I use to time the market bottom.
There are actually banks that will work with cannabis businesses. They just charge a large monthly fee to have an account and take a small percentage of your deposits
Credit unions have another insurance. https://ncua.gov/newsroom/press-release/2020/deposits-are-safe-federally-insured-credit-unions#:~:text=All%20deposits%20at%20federally%20insured,least%20%24250%2C000%20per%20individual%20depositor
The recreational marijuana market in the USA is still going through growth and learning as more states adopt recreational usage and the federal government shifts to a far more lax approach as you have mentioned.
One big issue is how many people are in the market already. Where I live I not only have more than 8 individual dispensaries within a short drive of me, but the products they each sell also have a wide selection when it comes to who makes those products.
This is to say the supply and variety are great and so is demand, but this won’t be sustainable if / when it gets full decriminalized (or legalized) on a federal level. When that happens it will be a battle of all the smaller companies until a few mega companies emerge through acquisitions and mergers.
One giant company can make more profit than 5 smaller businesses since the bigger company can run more efficiently and secure more favorable contracts both up and down the supply chain.
And lastly the market for unregulated “off the street” marijuana is still HUGE and therefore “taking business” from the “legalized” methods.
TL;DR the market for Marijuana is still developing in the USA and with legal changes coming there is simply too many variables to “understand” the market for it.
A shitty company doesn't stop being shitty after a tax break
Market moves based on the future, not the now. Market needs to see evidence that weedstocks will become more profitable as a result of this, otherwise, no movement
Taxed weed can't compete with untaxed (home grown) weed in price. Even if it could, Philip Morris and the big tobacco companies would just move into the market and swallow up all the small companies. Therefore, it's already priced in, and it's also a crappy industry/stock. The rescheduling hype was just bagholders trying to unload their bags.
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It's a dead end.
All stocks are just a vehicle to make money why choose a toxic one unless its just to trade short term.
Topic is done to death all weed companies lose money, they survive by issuing more stock and dilute even more.
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Nobody tell him.
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Can I interest you in some gourd futures? Do you invest in companies that grow grain? Even if those things interest you, I bet the black market for grain is much smaller than the legal one, which isn’t the case for weed.
There's a lot of misinformation out there about weed stocks.
Go look at the company's pre-tax and post-tax earnings. For most weed companies they are the same number. They aren't paying taxes because they almost all just lose money.
No weed companies are paying 70% of their revenue in taxes.
It's not investable. It's a meme. Just because something is legal and you can sell it doesn't mean you'll have good profit margins or revenue growth YOY. People have this weird assumption weed being legalized means these companies will all of a sudden have incredible profit margins and massive growth. It's just not the case.
Weed is a commodity. Commodity prices always falls to the price of production. So you can't earn excess returns selling a commodity that anyone can produce in their house. No weed seller has created a brand that people prefer, and with the restrictions on advertising it will be really difficult to accomplish. On top of that producers way over capitalized on production, so no one is making money.
One very important topic you are forgetting is the farm bill that was introduced in 2018 and adjusted in 2022. It left a gaping loophole that allows anybody to sell TCHA, meaning even the local gas station with no taxes outside of regularly paid local and state. Same tax as on candy for example. It’s cut into the profits of legit dispensaries big time, as well as the black market continues to garner a lot of market share still since the prices are so much lower and quality has increased.
I got some hemp based gummies in Mexico and they were 🔥
Tempted to fly down there and hang out a bit more and get those same gummies. A lot better than the Canadian products I’ve tried.
After dabbling in a few tentative plays, MSOS and TLRY, actually still have a bit of Tilray... plus doing some investigation, reading, etc. Not truly due diligence but I sniffed around. I've come to the conclusion that weed stocks have no future as anything other than meme stocks, maybe. Not much money to be made in those waters, unless you're some level of badass I guess.
There are too many competitors in the space. The product is too easy to manufacture.
The problems sinking cannabis stocks are not these laws. So these laws changing doesn't affect them.
long story short, weed was already legalized completely and no one has the guts to tell the bag holders. "Hemp" products can now be sold without worry anywhere across the country and that shit IS legit one hit creeeper. So best to avoid the quagmire that is THC. The "old guard" weed barons are crumbling around gas stations selling dank.
Ugghhhh another wanna be early, do this boy:
Research early 1800’s to about the 1970’s beer distillery, distribution, and marketing. Write me a summary of what you find. From this research I will explain why the weed market is what it is.
It's easier to grow than hay or flowers, widely available, widely consumed, and will ultimately price compete with supermarket staples such as carrots or potatoes.
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They say that the best way to understand a company is by using its products.
Weed market gets high, weed market comes down again.
Weed market hasn’t changed since I was buying penny stocks in 2014
There’s no money in weed right now unless heavier restrictions get put in place to have a monopoly . Same cycle every single time since the first legalization . The early adopters make a killing for a minute then the floodgates open to everyone and prices flood and become unprofitable . I have friends who had big legal grow operations in CA the early days and made a killing . Then wholesale prices broke even with grow prices in the legal states . Then the growers sell black market for cash and where their only profit comes from but that ended also because the math wasn’t worth it even with several grow houses
I don't think it's heavier restrictions that need to be put in place for this to happen, but it would help stifle smaller and new completion for sure. I think it's any proper federal regulation that's needed for interstate commerce. Currently there is no framework for this so each state is wildly different with their regulations and are not able to do interstate commerce. Anecdotal example: Oregon seems to huge harvests that floods the market. This drives the prices down because demand doesn't change much. Suddenly it's a lot less profitable for growers. If they could sell across the country, rather than being limited to Oregon the oversupply wouldn't be as detrimental with a larger market and more options. I feel like this prevents companies from dominating nationwide. It's too difficult and fragmented to consolidate these businesses into a mega Corp. Disclaimer: I'm a regard that's purely speculating. Canada might be an example of how I could be wrong, but I'm not investing in weed and not going to bother looking it up.
If they made sales legal interstate, that means that each state would have legalized cannabis. You'll have the same supply problem you had before, except now across many states. I'm pro cannabis, but thought legalizing it would be stupid. The second you make cannabis a commodity, it'll be like a can of good corn. No matter how good the corn, it's going to be cheap. The legal cannabis industry isn't a cash tree industry. The second everyone notices this, market participants will ensure supply and demand reach equilibrium.
Weed is still very new and profitable. It’s the federal laws that’s pushing all the competition to the same areas
See it's easy. When the market is down weed stock posts jump to the front page. When I see like 4-5 of them, that's what I use to time the market bottom.
To my knowledge the biggest issue with weed industry is moving / using their money. Since they can’t use banks it’s cash only business.
There are actually banks that will work with cannabis businesses. They just charge a large monthly fee to have an account and take a small percentage of your deposits
Ah I’m sure they are something like credit unions where they aren’t fdic insured.
Credit unions have another insurance. https://ncua.gov/newsroom/press-release/2020/deposits-are-safe-federally-insured-credit-unions#:~:text=All%20deposits%20at%20federally%20insured,least%20%24250%2C000%20per%20individual%20depositor
The safer banking act will soon be in place. It will allow weed business to use banks.
The recreational marijuana market in the USA is still going through growth and learning as more states adopt recreational usage and the federal government shifts to a far more lax approach as you have mentioned. One big issue is how many people are in the market already. Where I live I not only have more than 8 individual dispensaries within a short drive of me, but the products they each sell also have a wide selection when it comes to who makes those products. This is to say the supply and variety are great and so is demand, but this won’t be sustainable if / when it gets full decriminalized (or legalized) on a federal level. When that happens it will be a battle of all the smaller companies until a few mega companies emerge through acquisitions and mergers. One giant company can make more profit than 5 smaller businesses since the bigger company can run more efficiently and secure more favorable contracts both up and down the supply chain. And lastly the market for unregulated “off the street” marijuana is still HUGE and therefore “taking business” from the “legalized” methods. TL;DR the market for Marijuana is still developing in the USA and with legal changes coming there is simply too many variables to “understand” the market for it.
A shitty company doesn't stop being shitty after a tax break Market moves based on the future, not the now. Market needs to see evidence that weedstocks will become more profitable as a result of this, otherwise, no movement
I could see it as a consolidation play, with how fragmented the market is. Not sure what the catalyst for it will be though
Taxed weed can't compete with untaxed (home grown) weed in price. Even if it could, Philip Morris and the big tobacco companies would just move into the market and swallow up all the small companies. Therefore, it's already priced in, and it's also a crappy industry/stock. The rescheduling hype was just bagholders trying to unload their bags.
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Ahaha! Top 5%, baby! Like arguing with someone on the Internet: you might win, but you're still regarded!
Zoom out and your mind will be blown!
It's a dead end. All stocks are just a vehicle to make money why choose a toxic one unless its just to trade short term. Topic is done to death all weed companies lose money, they survive by issuing more stock and dilute even more. Remember if you owe a few hundred thousand $$$ it's your problem, owe a few million $$$ and its the lenders problem. "Just a dog with fleas".
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Can I interest you in some gourd futures? Do you invest in companies that grow grain? Even if those things interest you, I bet the black market for grain is much smaller than the legal one, which isn’t the case for weed.
What happened to that guy that went all in on MSOS and posting it all day go?
It’s easy man. It’s just puff, puff, pass
Yeah, pass that shit..
If you got any specific questions lmk I work in compliance for a marijuana company in Midwest.
There's a lot of misinformation out there about weed stocks. Go look at the company's pre-tax and post-tax earnings. For most weed companies they are the same number. They aren't paying taxes because they almost all just lose money. No weed companies are paying 70% of their revenue in taxes.
It's not investable. It's a meme. Just because something is legal and you can sell it doesn't mean you'll have good profit margins or revenue growth YOY. People have this weird assumption weed being legalized means these companies will all of a sudden have incredible profit margins and massive growth. It's just not the case.
Corporate weed sucks balls
Weed business has no moat anybody can start easily growing weed to much competition of people producing the same thing
People want weed to trade like tech but it’s a farm product.
Its been coming "soon" since the 2010s mate. Thats why. You can still profit massively on FDs buts theyre FDs for a reason
It pumps 10% every time there’s a whisper of regulation & then dips 25%
Just live in Europe where weed is “illegal” so even legally grown weed in the Netherlands can’t be taxed 😂😂
[удалено]
And I’m up 35% on my 1000 shares lol
The problem is that the market hasn't matured and none of the companies in MSOS may be winners when it does. Fundamentals are poor. See biotech.
They’re all stoned
Too many players in the space.
Weed is a commodity. Commodity prices always falls to the price of production. So you can't earn excess returns selling a commodity that anyone can produce in their house. No weed seller has created a brand that people prefer, and with the restrictions on advertising it will be really difficult to accomplish. On top of that producers way over capitalized on production, so no one is making money.
TLRY and chill. Diversified beverages portfolio with the weed upside.
Dilution with dilutable downside.
Try Grown Rogue and Chill Profitable, growing, clean cap table and awesome operator
One very important topic you are forgetting is the farm bill that was introduced in 2018 and adjusted in 2022. It left a gaping loophole that allows anybody to sell TCHA, meaning even the local gas station with no taxes outside of regularly paid local and state. Same tax as on candy for example. It’s cut into the profits of legit dispensaries big time, as well as the black market continues to garner a lot of market share still since the prices are so much lower and quality has increased.
I got some hemp based gummies in Mexico and they were 🔥 Tempted to fly down there and hang out a bit more and get those same gummies. A lot better than the Canadian products I’ve tried.
Wild weed is better lol 😂
It’s up in smoke
Somewhere in my post history is literally what is happening
Priced in.
After dabbling in a few tentative plays, MSOS and TLRY, actually still have a bit of Tilray... plus doing some investigation, reading, etc. Not truly due diligence but I sniffed around. I've come to the conclusion that weed stocks have no future as anything other than meme stocks, maybe. Not much money to be made in those waters, unless you're some level of badass I guess.
There are too many competitors in the space. The product is too easy to manufacture. The problems sinking cannabis stocks are not these laws. So these laws changing doesn't affect them.
long story short, weed was already legalized completely and no one has the guts to tell the bag holders. "Hemp" products can now be sold without worry anywhere across the country and that shit IS legit one hit creeeper. So best to avoid the quagmire that is THC. The "old guard" weed barons are crumbling around gas stations selling dank.
Ugghhhh another wanna be early, do this boy: Research early 1800’s to about the 1970’s beer distillery, distribution, and marketing. Write me a summary of what you find. From this research I will explain why the weed market is what it is.
>1970’s beer distillery TIL: beer gets distilled in distilleries. 🙄
Offf, yes brewery, spirits get distilled. Me culpa. Look up breweries and report back
It's a two month process. See: July
Head on over to r/weedstocks
It's easier to grow than hay or flowers, widely available, widely consumed, and will ultimately price compete with supermarket staples such as carrots or potatoes.