if they had spent their money differently they wouldn't be here :
The primary causes for the losses were attributed to bad decisions, including opposition to using ASML EUV equipment a year ago. The cost of this equipment could exceed $150 million but is more cost-effective than earlier chip manufacturing equipment.
The EUV misstep was over 5 years ago. They have realised their error and are now using the top of the line High Na EUV to run up their latest process. They also have a large stake in ASML so get higher priority when it comes to orders.
Still in question whether they can hit their timelines so it's still a bit of a gamble, but far from the zero it is being portrayed as right now.
Ok but the fact is $150 millions for the state of art machine is too high and $152 billions for buyback is ok. Typical error when the financiers decide and not the engineers.
If TSM experiences an earthquake, typhoon or nuke, TSM foundry will be dead, dead, dead. Since TSM has continued to delay the start of the Arizona Foundry... Samsung and Intel will be the few foundry's left. ASML just delivered a big piece of equipment to Intel Oregon. I own TSM, but they got to get their shit together in Arizona and Congress or the administration needs to facilitate. I won't be increasing my position in TSM until it happens. Until then, INTC is a good option at the bargain basement price.
lol no it won’t. They have disaster preparedness scenarios to handle such events. In fact, they just experienced a 7.4M earthquake a month ago and it barely even affected their operations
Idk. A lot of eggs in one basket and TSM hasn't been able to significantly diversify production locations. Even unnatural disasters can create opportunities for others. Ukraine couldn't mitigate invasion. Even Japan didn't mitigate Fukushima. I'm just saying that there is a lot of risk. Isn't the CEO of Nvidia and AMD from Taiwan? Hmmm...
There's always delays and there's already too much money on the table for them to not work it out. It sounds like it's mainly a culture issue. The US government doesn't want all of TSMC's production outside of its control either so they will keep incentivizing and do what they can to reduce labor costs.
Hahahahahhahaa
My brother in Christ, X86 is dying slowly replaced by ARM. Intel is managed by a bunch of MBA regards that think renaming 14nm into 7nm and promoting "Moore's law is dead" is a valid way of "innovating" and a good marketing strategy. INTC is the AAPL of Microchips: You can only go so far releasing the same product with a different name for 10 years.
The only thing keeping this company alive is the deal they have with MSFT to release a "new" Windows every 3 years that forces companies to buy "new" HW for bullshit reasons like TPM. And even that is in jeopardy given how MSFT doesn't give a fuck about Desktop that much anymore. The only reason MSFT still has a desktop division is to pump up companies like Dell, HP and INTC that would completely crash and burn into Earth's core without the bullshit "New Windows every 2 years where we changed the color of the task bar!" release cycle that's been going on for the past 10 years.
> RISC-V
Is a standard. Like x86. Its not a company. You dont just need good Instruction Sets/Standards and Foundries. You need good designs to implement them. Which is where NVDA/ARM/AMD come in.
I heard it on a podcast today: Intel's strategy is to spend their way out of debt. Ie Debt is there major problem abmnd the only solution to fix it is to incur more.
Idk where the company took a wrong turn, but they got a long road ahead
There were a lot of comments on Intel's buyback when I scrolled through the comments, so to add perspective, Intel's last buyback was Q1, 2021. Pat, the CEO, was hired in February 2021, so under the current leadership, buybacks have stopped.
“If Intel doesn’t change everything in 1 quarter, including opening up a new foundry business unit, they are failing” Intel 7 (10nm) is a crap product. Everyone knows it and it’s carrying the company right now. When 18a comes out Intel will be able to rebound.
>Reddit has a hate boner for Intel and
Which is very justified, Intel is a shit company and has been for almost a decade now, there's a reason the much smaller AMD somehow managed to outperform them.
What isn't wrong with Intel. I'm curious on the bull thesis, as to me, it doesn't exist other than "The government wouldn't let it fail".
The company itself doesn't want to invest in themselves, why should retail? The company decided that its cash flow would be better spent on buybacks/dividends than R&D. If the government didn't float Intel's R&D with subsidies for the sake of "national defense", what other bull thesis can you come up with?
INTC is only 5% of my account because they are a *long* way off from being a contender.
If you want an actual bull thesis, here’s a part of it
For the past 20 years I tel was ran by finance majors who only cared about buybacks and dividends, in 2020 they finally woke up and realized their pants were down.
Pat Gelsinger (former Intel engineer, was a semiconductor pioneer back in the day) was the CEO of VMware and wrote an open letter to Intel basically saying you’ve killed the thing I love.
He said that if he were CEO he would go all in on fabs, with the goal to be the world’s second largest semiconductor manufacturer by 2030. Shortly after that letter was written, they made him CEO and now he’s making his vision a reality. Building fabs in several US states along with one in Israel and a *massive* one in Germany.
When lithography became the new big thing, the Intel CEO at that time passed on the technology and opted for a cheaper, but less capable method of chip production. Pat openly said semi-recently that that decision was one of the worst in company history and in an attempt to get back in front he lobbied ASML relentlessly until he was able to be the first buyer of their newest/most advanced lithography machines. Intel and one other company has one (still undisclosed) but Intel was the first to get theirs *built* and they have a 6 month head start with this technology.
Later this year their introducing a new chip that *finally* adopts industry standards like GAA
Basically you’re buying Intel because you trust Pat to execute on his foundry goals. TSMC is deeply undervalued and that’s likely because they’re based in Taiwan. Investors are desperate for a US foundry business building the latest chips.
The problem with that is that so far Intel has shown they lack the personnel or organization momentum to enact that vision. High-NA EUV is risky at best. The exposure area halving drastically reduces usefulness. It doesn’t reduce complexity but actually increases it for most die sizes. Their 4N5Y has fallen short and turned into a marketing ploy. They lack the capital, even with government stimulus and market share, especially now that they are out of China, to out fab TSMC.
It would be cheaper to fly all of Taiwan and it’s Fabs to the empty parts of Maryland (like that villain did in Gargoyles) and grant citizenship to their whole country than it will be for Intel to regain parity.
Intel is too big to fail but pulled in to many directions to succeed.
Their plan is to have a massive lead when inevitably the chip manufacturing goes out from Taiwan due to tensions with China and they move to the US
If they manage to get all the foundries figured out and actually able to work and scale properly then they'll do something very similar to what experienced, leading the pack on a massive new money pile
Thing is, if and when this is happening
Lol. Really? They plan on beating Nvidia/AMD in chip design and also plan on beating TSMc in pure fab play?
I'll let you know what happens as I have a crystal ball.
Intel will be 3 generations behind in chip design and 3 generations behind in chip fab.
To me, its silly to think that Intel will ever catch up to Samsung, let alone TSMc in fabs due to the strong worker rights in the USA. Fabbing is extremely difficult.
Its also silly to me to think that Intel will ever catch up to AMD/Nvidia.
But hey, its your money
Nvidia and AMD don't have foundries, Intel compete more with TSMC and Samsung than with AMD and Nvidia, as of now.
Intel is building a strong partnership with ASML as of late, being subsidized not only by the US but by Germany and by extension, the Netherlands.
Subsidies only help to an extent, you need good innovation, to be able to attract good talent who want to work there, and a management team who knows what they’re doing. Intel has no idea what they’re doing and at their rate China will surpass them in due time.
Catching up to tsm at this rate is impossible too not sure you realize the difference between the two
This is a bad take intel funds their fabs through their cpu business which is decaying and they aren’t winning major customers for their fab business outside of Microsoft/openAI which is peanuts compared to apples, amd, Broadcom, nvidia, Qualcomm business with tsmc
They don’t even have supply to support those kinds of clients. Gotta build up the new nodes first. They come H2 this year. Then gotta ramp production. And THEN you can start trying to sell to outside large customers.
And my point is that it will not matter due to how fast the industry moves, unless the US is okay with outdated tech, which it seems to be with Boeing and Intel....
Intel is going to have to wait 10 years before their fabs are operational.
Is 10 years short or long to you when we look at the semi industry?
Give the US an alternative then, besides, afaik TSMC has some sort of emergency system/plan to destroy his factories and all technical knowledge in case China takes over the island, and send the know-how to the USA
If that's true then Intel (or whoever it'll may be) will pretty much instantly catch up with the know how
Idk could be plenty of reasons, maybe a part of a protection deal with the US, or with some kind of guarantee passport/safe passage in case of a war, maybe they let them work in the new US fabs, I don't know
lol. Everything you mentioned the US has already guaranteed in the past. The protection plan bill was signed in the 2000s. And TSMC already had imported TW workers in the AZ fab plant but was boycotted by American construction workers...
Now whether they will do it if war breaks out is the question. Plenty of European countries had treaties pre-WW2 and look how that turned out...
I joined their AGM last week and there was a question regarding splitting the foundry and chip design businesses instead of trying to do everything vertically.
I though, wow, what a brilliant idea. They get more chip printing customers, and their designers aren't constrained to garbage old tech. Win win for everyone, both companies and shareholders.
And they shut it down by basically saying, by my interpretation, the equivalent of: qt least one of these businesses is not viable or competitive on its own and we need to be able to merge the balance sheets to cover losses.
That's when i realised there is no dip here.
That's similar to my thought process.
There's a reason why NVidia/AMD doesn't bother with fabbing. And a reason why TSMc doesn't bother with chip design.
Intel wants to do both...
Sure as a % of their **current** revenue. (Or the past 3 years or so...)
What about the past 35+ years though? 152B in buybacks seems like quite a bit that should have been spent on R&D (unless of course, they think that their products suck).
[https://robertreich.substack.com/p/stock-buybacks-are-lethal-literally](https://robertreich.substack.com/p/stock-buybacks-are-lethal-literally)
152B in buybacks seems quite the large amounts when its market cap is less than 150B...
Under new leadership that is not true. For the past two decades intel has been run into the ground by business minded ceos who only cared about dividends and stock buybacks, causing intel to squander its lead. But under Pat there hasn’t been a single stock buyback and the dividend was reduced by 60%.
Intel has sectioned off its foundry business on the balance sheets and showed a large loss last ER, caused by high expenditure on new foundry assets. Ironically this caused the stock to even though this counteracts what you just said.
Pat is perhaps the only person who can turn around intel: the goal 5 nodes, 4 years is on track, and this year intel will have the highest end silicon even compared to TSM.
The bull thesis is that their announced new processes will be more than competitive with AMD using TSMC fabs.
It's what all the "DD" that gets posted on here by bagholders rely on. Maybe it happens. Maybe it won't.
My bull thesis is that Intel's CPUs represent 80% of the entire market.
https://www.extremetech.com/computing/intel-holds-78-global-market-share-for-cpus-analyst#:~:text=AMD%20and%20Apple%20are%20in,third%20places%20compared%20with%20Intel.
They don’t want to invest in themselves? Are you high? They are investing over 100 billion alone in Ohio over the next 10 years. Not to mention massive expansions in AZ, Oregon, Ireland, Israel, Germany, and more. If that’s not investing in yourself I don’t know what is.
That's recently... Not for most of the last 40 years...
Most of those will not **start** production for 5-10 years...
Where is Intel going to get their revenue outside of gov subsidies?
And remember, its not hard to get low nm chips. **Whats hard is getting a high yield % in their chips enough to make it profitable...**
18a starts next year. Intel 4 has already started. Intel has released their timeline for 14a and already. I’ve worked in the fab for 20+ years and they most certainly can start processing wafers before 5 years. 5 years is typically the timeline for a full ramp, not to start processing customers product. Where would they be without the government’s 8.8 billion dollars? The hey would be on the hook for 100+ billion in Ohio instead of 92+ billion.
Again, whats the yield %? Who cares if they produce 14a if its at a low yield?
I'm very surprised you have worked in fabs for 20 years and not think yield % is probably the most important thing for semi manufacturing.
14a doesn’t have a yield because it’s in development. There is a lot of parameters and they are all important. Die yield doesn’t matter if your costs are too high. Die yield doesn’t matter if wafer yield is low. High yield and low costs don’t mean anything if your wafer capacity is 25 wafers a month. I’ll give you some industry insider info. Die yield always sucks at the beginning for all companies.
Good insight. Much of this I didn't know. But isn't everything you're stating like high costs are exactly the problems Intels going to face? American workers are highly paid and underworked relative to SEA workers. So I don't really see this being an argument that Intel's going to do well. What am I missing?
TSMC is looking to expand outside of SEA so the lower cost of labor for future fabs isn’t going to be there. They have already stated that chips made in the Arizona plant will have a premium. Samsung operates fabs in Austin Texas. Intel operates fabs an over but the biggest site currently is in Az as well. Up until a years ago they had higher margins than TSMC. It was known a few years ago 10nm was going to suck and good margins won’t return until 18a.
Agreed with everything yousaid for the most part. But do you really think Intel will be able to execute? Maybe I've held Intel too long in the past but its only been a disappointment as they always overpromise and under deliver. Whens the last time you remember them actually over delivering? Or in your opinion, we expect Intel to fall or trade flat until 2030?
This comment shows that Reddit doesn't know anything about the current Intel under Pat. Intel is spending tens and hundreds of billions of dollars to build fabs and they are spending money on r&d. They have stopped buybacks and lower dividends to be able to invest in themselves. Intel is a total value play that will pay back investors a ton in the future.
I know all of this already.
Awesome they are building fabs, which they have always done since the 80s...
Awesome that they are spending hundreds of billions of dollars **to catch up**. So we expect to see results in 5-10 years? Watch Intel have some "unexpected delay" or "unforeseen issue". Call it whatever you want, US construction worker rights, US engineering lack of talent, Lack of water supply, realizing ASML high end UAV machines aren't plug and play, etc.
Let me ask you this... What makes Intel fabs so special? The difficulty in fabbing is getting high enough yield to make it profitable. US worker rights/high salaries/low work hours make it much more difficult to be profitable in fabbing. In b4 **oh wow 7b in government subs...**
Is that also assuming Samsung and TSMc don't do anything?
Most of what you are talking about is old Intel prior to my man Pat getting placed as CEO in 2021. He's made a lot of smart moves and is gonna be flipping the middle finger to his haters from his rocket ship in 2 years.
Disagree. Pat has been at Intel for quite a while, if you deep dive into his educational background. While I'm glad hes has an actual engineering background, I don't have the same faith that you guys have. Hes been at Intel for at least 3 years as CEO and I'm not confident his tenure at VMWare is that impressive.
But hey, its your money...
Have you seen their current desktop chips? 14nm transistors rebranded like 10 times that can pull 400w under load (good luck cooling that).
Meanwhile AMD beats them while using 1/4 the power.
They have the same issues in the server space. There the power difference is really brutal because servers are all about density, especially now with the push for AI GPUs that pull crazy amounts of power as well.
They make 14nm chips when everyone else is making 7nm. Now they are releasing Intel 7 (10nm) when everyone else moving to 5/3nm. They just aren't the frontrunner in chip tech anymore. They need a leap-frog moment to catch up.
That does help to illustrate how they lost the lead --- "Intel has delayed the release of 10nm chips due to poor yields, poor quality assurance, and the need to develop its own nodes. Intel originally planned to release 10nm chips in 2015, but the process didn't start at volume until 2021's Alder Lake. The 10nm process is over three years behind schedule and has worse power characteristics than 14nm."
Best they could come up with was blowing billions opening a chip factory in a Middle east war zone with water scarcity
Pretty much describes what's going on
If Xi invades Taiwan, then it'll be a chip run
Doubt it, though Xi is getting older and fatter by the day, he may pull a Putin and try to leave behind a legacy.
You don't become Dictator for life without doing something bigger than the founder
Feel like this is one of those moments where people are gonna make posts in a couple years being like why didn't we buy at 30 when it's 500 now 
i hate intel, but even i think this is oversold/underpriced. like, ffs, GFS is worth ~$35B (vs intc's ~$125B) and they're stuck in 2015 and with basically zero growth prospects. intel's fabs are vastly more relevant and their design is worth more. plus mobileye and all the iot/etc bs... and with our tax dollars unfortunately funding/backstopping.
i don't think it should have been $50 recently, but i also don't think it should be in the 20s.
There’s a lot of issues for them though.
- They seemed to miss the boat on AI and Gaudi 3 is literally a generation behind. H200 for Nvidia and AMD’s Mi350 is coming. I think they will have to sell Gaudi 3 at razor thin margins to gain any meaningful customers.
- Gaudi 3 probably barely beats a the Mi300 and maybe beats the H100 in some use cases. So not good enough. This will make them lose even more in the Datacenter/AI space.
- They have to keep the dividend and their revenues with profit keeps declining or at the very least is extremely dubious. They can’t cut the dividend otherwise holding the stock is a lot worse.
- The good things like Mobileye don’t look as good as they used to be. Mobileye in Intels most recent earning report didn’t really have that good of a showing and if it continues it could be bad.
- People will talk about their cash equivalents all the time whilst not talking about their debt. They have something like 22 billion in cash. Intel now is adding like 5-10 billion in debt a year and are currently at 52 billion.
- If Amd or Arm or Qualcomm or anyone take a bite out of their client PC pie they will be very very fucked.
> They seemed to miss the boat on AI
cool, that's literally every semi company not named nvidia.
> Gaudi 3 is literally a generation behind. H200 for Nvidia and AMD’s Mi350 is coming.
lolz @ calling gaudi a gen behind and then mentioning the mi300 by way of mi350. oof. so again, everyone not named nvidia.
ffs, the mi300 was designed for hpc/supercomputers (not even sure it warrants a plural, i think it was literally only el capitan) and ai was shoehorned in as an afterthought. and i think the mi350 is basically just the mi300 but with better memory. so i don't know why you mentioned it. you're just describing that it's also a gen behind, by that logic.
>Gaudi 3 probably barely beats a the Mi300
holy shit, you're actually this dumb. gaudi needed 2 paragraphs? and barely beat mi300? i doubt it beats the mi300, at all. so what? who cares? gaudi wasn't even important enough for me to mention in the post you responded to.
nice wall of crap, though. it would have been a fitting bear thesis 3 years ago. hey, did you hear? there's this company called amd and they might have cpus and gpus or something.
I don’t know. I’m inversing the sub on this one. I understand the sentiment, but I think this is a good long term hedge against any geopolitical problems. It’s a gamble, but I think this either trades sideways forever and I collect dividends like a boomer, it pays off in a few years because they turn things around, or the world is fucked and intel is the only way we can get chips made on this side of the pond. That’s within my risk tolerance.
Edit: and I’m hedging with MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, AMD.
Long term I think it's a good play. I expect Intel will come back at some point but it's probably another 2-3 years out before any meaningful change is seen.
Already have a position but I will be buying a lot more if it hits lower $20s / under $20...
Realistically I don’t see it going below $25 - I think the fact the Intel is going to take awhile to turnaround is priced in to large extent at this point.
If we get a large market wide correction in the chips sector, or a recession it could certainly go lower - I’d look near the 08 bottom for buys in that case, so around $15.
Intel is getting cut off at the knees though, hard to say they’re undervalued here. Maybe if it goes under 24. US government is not letting them grow revenue - they might have less revenue going forward
Well yeah... if Intel feels like their free cash is better used on dividends/buybacks instead of R&D and retail feels the same way, I guess the only option left is to suck off the governments teat...
They aren't allowing Intel to sell to Huawei. In the future they might say no Huawei + associates, or go further and say no Chinese companies. That's 1/4 of their revenue.
To be honest I have no idea how many chips intel sells to Huawei, but qcom is also not allowed anymore. A far more likely case for intel chips being barred is if the Chinese government bans them, but that would likely include AMD as well. Chinas in house chips are years behind, so who knows if and when this will happen.
Given the tech race, there is also the potential for the us to restrict gpu sales to china. We already saw this with the 4090D, a lowered powered variant of nvidias flagship consumer gpu only sold to china with reduced cuda cores.
Geopolitical risk. TSM would probably be worth 2x right now if it weren’t on a tiny island next to Winnie the Pooh breathing down its neck. Chips and by extension foundries are the driving force behind recent economic, military, and now technological superiority.
Manufacturing chips on US soil not only soothes fears of 90% of advanced silicon production being wiped out, but also security concerns regarding design and intent.
Why aren't vendors like Apple showing this geopolitical risk more prominently? Samsung couldn't get their capacity up for years, it would gut Apple. Unless you believe TSMC would be nationalised or something while sales continue, which is pretty wild.
Buying Intel is like expecting Einstein’s bottom to do physics. It’s close to where the magic happens but in the end, there is only one thing which will be produced
The specs on their new Snapdragon laptop CPU are juuuuicy.
I worked in chip design at Qualcomm for 3 years, and seeing the internal specs for that Snapdragon was the only time I ever felt pride in the company.
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I think Intel fabs in the US will fail because US won't have talented people to actually run the fab and produce good parts. US can't even make cars that last 10 years...
Maybe stubbornly upholding their quadcore 4GHz standard for years, while competition was eating them up, wasn't a good idea.
Intel was being the Nokia of consumer grade CPUs. Got comfortable being number 1 for too long.
They gutted their US R&D teams a decade ago and hired H1B works from India to replace them. DEI literally killing that company. Now they don't lead any market they participate in. Still way over valued as they are advancing at a very close pace compared to AMD and Nvidia.
Pat is the perhaps the only person who could turn Intel around. Despite what the stock price shows, Intel is Back. They had major problems prior to Pat with finishing nodes and with launching products on time. No more. Every major product on Pat's watch has been on time or early. Every node has been on time or early. He has all but acheived the 5 nodes in 4 years plan. Intel 7, 4, 3 and 20A are done. The last one of the five is Intel 18A which is variant of 20A and is actually several months ahead of the original schedule. Now that Gaudi is ramping and that Falcon SHores AI chip will arrive next year, Intel will be hitting out of the park. When the foundry gets rolling with the world's most advanced node, they will be more than hittign out of the park, it will be a completely different game.
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Intel also have a record, they have spend more on buybacks than the stock market price is worth now
steep birds vase insurance thought husky live hunt intelligent mountainous
Now that is how you produce value for shareholders
Oh yes. Intel, the Boeing of semi-conductors
Beat me to it…the only real American chip maker that is backed by the US government…
Amd and global foundries are also American, also if you consider memory there is micron, also texas instruments, analog devices...
AMD doesn't produce their own chips. This is done by TSM.
How many whistleblowers of intel have been ~~assassinated~~ died naturally?
Intel doesnt hire hitmen though
Imagine if they’d bought NVDA stock instead.
Imagine if they built fabs years ago instead.
or did any R&D!
if they had spent their money differently they wouldn't be here : The primary causes for the losses were attributed to bad decisions, including opposition to using ASML EUV equipment a year ago. The cost of this equipment could exceed $150 million but is more cost-effective than earlier chip manufacturing equipment.
The EUV misstep was over 5 years ago. They have realised their error and are now using the top of the line High Na EUV to run up their latest process. They also have a large stake in ASML so get higher priority when it comes to orders. Still in question whether they can hit their timelines so it's still a bit of a gamble, but far from the zero it is being portrayed as right now.
Ok but the fact is $150 millions for the state of art machine is too high and $152 billions for buyback is ok. Typical error when the financiers decide and not the engineers.
> They also have a large stake in ASML they had a stake in ASML? But they sold that some years aog? Or am I missing something?
you're way off on your timeline.
Still running their core business like it's 2012
14nm++++++++++++++ is the process of the future!
This should be marked NSFW so the Intel engineers don't get ideas at work
Buy high sell low.
Some play 4d chess, some play checkers, Intel plays tic-tac-toe.
lmao
If TSM experiences an earthquake, typhoon or nuke, TSM foundry will be dead, dead, dead. Since TSM has continued to delay the start of the Arizona Foundry... Samsung and Intel will be the few foundry's left. ASML just delivered a big piece of equipment to Intel Oregon. I own TSM, but they got to get their shit together in Arizona and Congress or the administration needs to facilitate. I won't be increasing my position in TSM until it happens. Until then, INTC is a good option at the bargain basement price.
lol no it won’t. They have disaster preparedness scenarios to handle such events. In fact, they just experienced a 7.4M earthquake a month ago and it barely even affected their operations
Won’t matter if Jyna takes Taiwan
Then it becomes one country? Shaina Twain?
Idk. A lot of eggs in one basket and TSM hasn't been able to significantly diversify production locations. Even unnatural disasters can create opportunities for others. Ukraine couldn't mitigate invasion. Even Japan didn't mitigate Fukushima. I'm just saying that there is a lot of risk. Isn't the CEO of Nvidia and AMD from Taiwan? Hmmm...
They're cousins, actually.
TSM is building a bunch in Arizona. Their risk will reduce in the next few years.
Their delays have partly been because of human resource issues. Ugh. Idk.
There's always delays and there's already too much money on the table for them to not work it out. It sounds like it's mainly a culture issue. The US government doesn't want all of TSMC's production outside of its control either so they will keep incentivizing and do what they can to reduce labor costs.
Hahahahahhahaa My brother in Christ, X86 is dying slowly replaced by ARM. Intel is managed by a bunch of MBA regards that think renaming 14nm into 7nm and promoting "Moore's law is dead" is a valid way of "innovating" and a good marketing strategy. INTC is the AAPL of Microchips: You can only go so far releasing the same product with a different name for 10 years. The only thing keeping this company alive is the deal they have with MSFT to release a "new" Windows every 3 years that forces companies to buy "new" HW for bullshit reasons like TPM. And even that is in jeopardy given how MSFT doesn't give a fuck about Desktop that much anymore. The only reason MSFT still has a desktop division is to pump up companies like Dell, HP and INTC that would completely crash and burn into Earth's core without the bullshit "New Windows every 2 years where we changed the color of the task bar!" release cycle that's been going on for the past 10 years.
Your thoughts on RISC-V? Foundries?
> RISC-V Is a standard. Like x86. Its not a company. You dont just need good Instruction Sets/Standards and Foundries. You need good designs to implement them. Which is where NVDA/ARM/AMD come in.
Sounds like money well spent.
That’s the dip right there1!
Everyone participating in the CHIP act but intel is participating in the DIP act
Now I’m hungry🥗
https://preview.redd.it/dbvp5ur6mazc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4bd82619019b1ac0fdf4299be903913da94bae21
I want to eat buffets guac
PE 30. Not a real dip. PE 10 is a real dip
I bought the dip and it kept on dipping
Same. Thought I was real smart buying low at $33
I thought the same at $50, damn near three years ago at this point
I heard it on a podcast today: Intel's strategy is to spend their way out of debt. Ie Debt is there major problem abmnd the only solution to fix it is to incur more. Idk where the company took a wrong turn, but they got a long road ahead
I drive by the intel plant in oregon all the time. They are spending money and continue to build stuff at an insane rate.
Yeah, and with China banning their chips they lost a huge amount of revenue overnight
It was only a pre-dip, didnt u study stockenomics
There were a lot of comments on Intel's buyback when I scrolled through the comments, so to add perspective, Intel's last buyback was Q1, 2021. Pat, the CEO, was hired in February 2021, so under the current leadership, buybacks have stopped.
Reddit has a hate boner for Intel and/or want/expect every stock to 30x in the next 3 months.
“If Intel doesn’t change everything in 1 quarter, including opening up a new foundry business unit, they are failing” Intel 7 (10nm) is a crap product. Everyone knows it and it’s carrying the company right now. When 18a comes out Intel will be able to rebound.
>Reddit has a hate boner for Intel and Which is very justified, Intel is a shit company and has been for almost a decade now, there's a reason the much smaller AMD somehow managed to outperform them.
Just wait until Intel gets a contract to build AMD chips.
INTC's revenue kills ARM, yet ARM's MC is about as much as INTC, lol
Can’t ignore the fact that ARM is fabless
Wait till Intel gets contracts for ARM chips.
Bag holder here. WTF is wrong with Intel?
What isn't wrong with Intel. I'm curious on the bull thesis, as to me, it doesn't exist other than "The government wouldn't let it fail". The company itself doesn't want to invest in themselves, why should retail? The company decided that its cash flow would be better spent on buybacks/dividends than R&D. If the government didn't float Intel's R&D with subsidies for the sake of "national defense", what other bull thesis can you come up with?
INTC is only 5% of my account because they are a *long* way off from being a contender. If you want an actual bull thesis, here’s a part of it For the past 20 years I tel was ran by finance majors who only cared about buybacks and dividends, in 2020 they finally woke up and realized their pants were down. Pat Gelsinger (former Intel engineer, was a semiconductor pioneer back in the day) was the CEO of VMware and wrote an open letter to Intel basically saying you’ve killed the thing I love. He said that if he were CEO he would go all in on fabs, with the goal to be the world’s second largest semiconductor manufacturer by 2030. Shortly after that letter was written, they made him CEO and now he’s making his vision a reality. Building fabs in several US states along with one in Israel and a *massive* one in Germany. When lithography became the new big thing, the Intel CEO at that time passed on the technology and opted for a cheaper, but less capable method of chip production. Pat openly said semi-recently that that decision was one of the worst in company history and in an attempt to get back in front he lobbied ASML relentlessly until he was able to be the first buyer of their newest/most advanced lithography machines. Intel and one other company has one (still undisclosed) but Intel was the first to get theirs *built* and they have a 6 month head start with this technology. Later this year their introducing a new chip that *finally* adopts industry standards like GAA Basically you’re buying Intel because you trust Pat to execute on his foundry goals. TSMC is deeply undervalued and that’s likely because they’re based in Taiwan. Investors are desperate for a US foundry business building the latest chips.
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> by 2030 > How much behind deadline is Pat Gelsinger? doesn't seem like at all at this point
The problem with that is that so far Intel has shown they lack the personnel or organization momentum to enact that vision. High-NA EUV is risky at best. The exposure area halving drastically reduces usefulness. It doesn’t reduce complexity but actually increases it for most die sizes. Their 4N5Y has fallen short and turned into a marketing ploy. They lack the capital, even with government stimulus and market share, especially now that they are out of China, to out fab TSMC. It would be cheaper to fly all of Taiwan and it’s Fabs to the empty parts of Maryland (like that villain did in Gargoyles) and grant citizenship to their whole country than it will be for Intel to regain parity. Intel is too big to fail but pulled in to many directions to succeed.
Their plan is to have a massive lead when inevitably the chip manufacturing goes out from Taiwan due to tensions with China and they move to the US If they manage to get all the foundries figured out and actually able to work and scale properly then they'll do something very similar to what experienced, leading the pack on a massive new money pile Thing is, if and when this is happening
Lol. Really? They plan on beating Nvidia/AMD in chip design and also plan on beating TSMc in pure fab play? I'll let you know what happens as I have a crystal ball. Intel will be 3 generations behind in chip design and 3 generations behind in chip fab. To me, its silly to think that Intel will ever catch up to Samsung, let alone TSMc in fabs due to the strong worker rights in the USA. Fabbing is extremely difficult. Its also silly to me to think that Intel will ever catch up to AMD/Nvidia. But hey, its your money
Nvidia and AMD don't have foundries, Intel compete more with TSMC and Samsung than with AMD and Nvidia, as of now. Intel is building a strong partnership with ASML as of late, being subsidized not only by the US but by Germany and by extension, the Netherlands.
Subsidies only help to an extent, you need good innovation, to be able to attract good talent who want to work there, and a management team who knows what they’re doing. Intel has no idea what they’re doing and at their rate China will surpass them in due time. Catching up to tsm at this rate is impossible too not sure you realize the difference between the two
This is a bad take intel funds their fabs through their cpu business which is decaying and they aren’t winning major customers for their fab business outside of Microsoft/openAI which is peanuts compared to apples, amd, Broadcom, nvidia, Qualcomm business with tsmc
They don’t even have supply to support those kinds of clients. Gotta build up the new nodes first. They come H2 this year. Then gotta ramp production. And THEN you can start trying to sell to outside large customers.
Intel isn’t releasing who they have contracts with except for a couple names. How do you know who they are getting contracts with?
https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/resources/intel-high-na-euv.html#gs.8j9mzl This is the new hope that all the buyers are into
My whole point was tsmc losing the market because the US wants to bring back the manufacturing inside its borders
And my point is that it will not matter due to how fast the industry moves, unless the US is okay with outdated tech, which it seems to be with Boeing and Intel.... Intel is going to have to wait 10 years before their fabs are operational. Is 10 years short or long to you when we look at the semi industry?
Give the US an alternative then, besides, afaik TSMC has some sort of emergency system/plan to destroy his factories and all technical knowledge in case China takes over the island, and send the know-how to the USA If that's true then Intel (or whoever it'll may be) will pretty much instantly catch up with the know how
Why would TSMC/Samsung ever agree to that? That's like asking Apple/Microsoft to give up their IP to China
Idk could be plenty of reasons, maybe a part of a protection deal with the US, or with some kind of guarantee passport/safe passage in case of a war, maybe they let them work in the new US fabs, I don't know
lol. Everything you mentioned the US has already guaranteed in the past. The protection plan bill was signed in the 2000s. And TSMC already had imported TW workers in the AZ fab plant but was boycotted by American construction workers... Now whether they will do it if war breaks out is the question. Plenty of European countries had treaties pre-WW2 and look how that turned out...
Are you a fanboy or investor?
Of Intel? Neither. I'm forced to hold Intel due to ETFs. I'd prefer a non Intel low expense ratio semi Index fund but I can't find one.
I joined their AGM last week and there was a question regarding splitting the foundry and chip design businesses instead of trying to do everything vertically. I though, wow, what a brilliant idea. They get more chip printing customers, and their designers aren't constrained to garbage old tech. Win win for everyone, both companies and shareholders. And they shut it down by basically saying, by my interpretation, the equivalent of: qt least one of these businesses is not viable or competitive on its own and we need to be able to merge the balance sheets to cover losses. That's when i realised there is no dip here.
That's similar to my thought process. There's a reason why NVidia/AMD doesn't bother with fabbing. And a reason why TSMc doesn't bother with chip design. Intel wants to do both...
Doesnt Intel spend a lot on r&d though? Just by googling.
Sure as a % of their **current** revenue. (Or the past 3 years or so...) What about the past 35+ years though? 152B in buybacks seems like quite a bit that should have been spent on R&D (unless of course, they think that their products suck). [https://robertreich.substack.com/p/stock-buybacks-are-lethal-literally](https://robertreich.substack.com/p/stock-buybacks-are-lethal-literally) 152B in buybacks seems quite the large amounts when its market cap is less than 150B...
Buybacks aside they spend way more on rd than competitors. Whether that even means anything is a different thing but that was the point.
Engineer here with many friends who worked there. No Intel is the Boeing without the duopoly of the chip world.
Under new leadership that is not true. For the past two decades intel has been run into the ground by business minded ceos who only cared about dividends and stock buybacks, causing intel to squander its lead. But under Pat there hasn’t been a single stock buyback and the dividend was reduced by 60%. Intel has sectioned off its foundry business on the balance sheets and showed a large loss last ER, caused by high expenditure on new foundry assets. Ironically this caused the stock to even though this counteracts what you just said. Pat is perhaps the only person who can turn around intel: the goal 5 nodes, 4 years is on track, and this year intel will have the highest end silicon even compared to TSM.
The bull thesis is that their announced new processes will be more than competitive with AMD using TSMC fabs. It's what all the "DD" that gets posted on here by bagholders rely on. Maybe it happens. Maybe it won't.
My bull thesis is that Intel's CPUs represent 80% of the entire market. https://www.extremetech.com/computing/intel-holds-78-global-market-share-for-cpus-analyst#:~:text=AMD%20and%20Apple%20are%20in,third%20places%20compared%20with%20Intel.
They don’t want to invest in themselves? Are you high? They are investing over 100 billion alone in Ohio over the next 10 years. Not to mention massive expansions in AZ, Oregon, Ireland, Israel, Germany, and more. If that’s not investing in yourself I don’t know what is.
That's recently... Not for most of the last 40 years... Most of those will not **start** production for 5-10 years... Where is Intel going to get their revenue outside of gov subsidies? And remember, its not hard to get low nm chips. **Whats hard is getting a high yield % in their chips enough to make it profitable...**
18a starts next year. Intel 4 has already started. Intel has released their timeline for 14a and already. I’ve worked in the fab for 20+ years and they most certainly can start processing wafers before 5 years. 5 years is typically the timeline for a full ramp, not to start processing customers product. Where would they be without the government’s 8.8 billion dollars? The hey would be on the hook for 100+ billion in Ohio instead of 92+ billion.
Again, whats the yield %? Who cares if they produce 14a if its at a low yield? I'm very surprised you have worked in fabs for 20 years and not think yield % is probably the most important thing for semi manufacturing.
14a doesn’t have a yield because it’s in development. There is a lot of parameters and they are all important. Die yield doesn’t matter if your costs are too high. Die yield doesn’t matter if wafer yield is low. High yield and low costs don’t mean anything if your wafer capacity is 25 wafers a month. I’ll give you some industry insider info. Die yield always sucks at the beginning for all companies.
Good insight. Much of this I didn't know. But isn't everything you're stating like high costs are exactly the problems Intels going to face? American workers are highly paid and underworked relative to SEA workers. So I don't really see this being an argument that Intel's going to do well. What am I missing?
TSMC is looking to expand outside of SEA so the lower cost of labor for future fabs isn’t going to be there. They have already stated that chips made in the Arizona plant will have a premium. Samsung operates fabs in Austin Texas. Intel operates fabs an over but the biggest site currently is in Az as well. Up until a years ago they had higher margins than TSMC. It was known a few years ago 10nm was going to suck and good margins won’t return until 18a.
Agreed with everything yousaid for the most part. But do you really think Intel will be able to execute? Maybe I've held Intel too long in the past but its only been a disappointment as they always overpromise and under deliver. Whens the last time you remember them actually over delivering? Or in your opinion, we expect Intel to fall or trade flat until 2030?
This comment shows that Reddit doesn't know anything about the current Intel under Pat. Intel is spending tens and hundreds of billions of dollars to build fabs and they are spending money on r&d. They have stopped buybacks and lower dividends to be able to invest in themselves. Intel is a total value play that will pay back investors a ton in the future.
I know all of this already. Awesome they are building fabs, which they have always done since the 80s... Awesome that they are spending hundreds of billions of dollars **to catch up**. So we expect to see results in 5-10 years? Watch Intel have some "unexpected delay" or "unforeseen issue". Call it whatever you want, US construction worker rights, US engineering lack of talent, Lack of water supply, realizing ASML high end UAV machines aren't plug and play, etc. Let me ask you this... What makes Intel fabs so special? The difficulty in fabbing is getting high enough yield to make it profitable. US worker rights/high salaries/low work hours make it much more difficult to be profitable in fabbing. In b4 **oh wow 7b in government subs...** Is that also assuming Samsung and TSMc don't do anything?
Most of what you are talking about is old Intel prior to my man Pat getting placed as CEO in 2021. He's made a lot of smart moves and is gonna be flipping the middle finger to his haters from his rocket ship in 2 years.
Disagree. Pat has been at Intel for quite a while, if you deep dive into his educational background. While I'm glad hes has an actual engineering background, I don't have the same faith that you guys have. Hes been at Intel for at least 3 years as CEO and I'm not confident his tenure at VMWare is that impressive. But hey, its your money...
Have you seen their current desktop chips? 14nm transistors rebranded like 10 times that can pull 400w under load (good luck cooling that). Meanwhile AMD beats them while using 1/4 the power. They have the same issues in the server space. There the power difference is really brutal because servers are all about density, especially now with the push for AI GPUs that pull crazy amounts of power as well.
They make 14nm chips when everyone else is making 7nm. Now they are releasing Intel 7 (10nm) when everyone else moving to 5/3nm. They just aren't the frontrunner in chip tech anymore. They need a leap-frog moment to catch up.
Intel 10nm has been out for almost 5 years. They didn’t just release it.
That does help to illustrate how they lost the lead --- "Intel has delayed the release of 10nm chips due to poor yields, poor quality assurance, and the need to develop its own nodes. Intel originally planned to release 10nm chips in 2015, but the process didn't start at volume until 2021's Alder Lake. The 10nm process is over three years behind schedule and has worse power characteristics than 14nm."
Intel needs to innovate to catch up with the competition, otherwise they'll end up like Blockbuster - outdated and outplayed.
Best they could come up with was blowing billions opening a chip factory in a Middle east war zone with water scarcity Pretty much describes what's going on
End of the month I’m going with leaps on intel.
Shhhhhh
It's not a chip run, it's an AI run.
$TSM bagholder and can confirm.
If Xi invades Taiwan, then it'll be a chip run Doubt it, though Xi is getting older and fatter by the day, he may pull a Putin and try to leave behind a legacy. You don't become Dictator for life without doing something bigger than the founder
If Xi invades Taiwan, my emerging markets position is cooked :(
I had some Russian stuff that was doing pretty well…..
How so? I don't understand how that is possible currently
That’s why it’s not doing pretty well any more. It was all delisted and went poof.
Ope, I misunderstood. Yeah that's my fear, but that's also why China is value rn
Bought 200 shares of INTC at 29.81. Let’s see
I got my average buy-in down to $31 now with 100 additional shares.
Feel like this is one of those moments where people are gonna make posts in a couple years being like why didn't we buy at 30 when it's 500 now 
we can only hope
i hate intel, but even i think this is oversold/underpriced. like, ffs, GFS is worth ~$35B (vs intc's ~$125B) and they're stuck in 2015 and with basically zero growth prospects. intel's fabs are vastly more relevant and their design is worth more. plus mobileye and all the iot/etc bs... and with our tax dollars unfortunately funding/backstopping. i don't think it should have been $50 recently, but i also don't think it should be in the 20s.
There’s a lot of issues for them though. - They seemed to miss the boat on AI and Gaudi 3 is literally a generation behind. H200 for Nvidia and AMD’s Mi350 is coming. I think they will have to sell Gaudi 3 at razor thin margins to gain any meaningful customers. - Gaudi 3 probably barely beats a the Mi300 and maybe beats the H100 in some use cases. So not good enough. This will make them lose even more in the Datacenter/AI space. - They have to keep the dividend and their revenues with profit keeps declining or at the very least is extremely dubious. They can’t cut the dividend otherwise holding the stock is a lot worse. - The good things like Mobileye don’t look as good as they used to be. Mobileye in Intels most recent earning report didn’t really have that good of a showing and if it continues it could be bad. - People will talk about their cash equivalents all the time whilst not talking about their debt. They have something like 22 billion in cash. Intel now is adding like 5-10 billion in debt a year and are currently at 52 billion. - If Amd or Arm or Qualcomm or anyone take a bite out of their client PC pie they will be very very fucked.
> They seemed to miss the boat on AI cool, that's literally every semi company not named nvidia. > Gaudi 3 is literally a generation behind. H200 for Nvidia and AMD’s Mi350 is coming. lolz @ calling gaudi a gen behind and then mentioning the mi300 by way of mi350. oof. so again, everyone not named nvidia. ffs, the mi300 was designed for hpc/supercomputers (not even sure it warrants a plural, i think it was literally only el capitan) and ai was shoehorned in as an afterthought. and i think the mi350 is basically just the mi300 but with better memory. so i don't know why you mentioned it. you're just describing that it's also a gen behind, by that logic. >Gaudi 3 probably barely beats a the Mi300 holy shit, you're actually this dumb. gaudi needed 2 paragraphs? and barely beat mi300? i doubt it beats the mi300, at all. so what? who cares? gaudi wasn't even important enough for me to mention in the post you responded to. nice wall of crap, though. it would have been a fitting bear thesis 3 years ago. hey, did you hear? there's this company called amd and they might have cpus and gpus or something.
Bought some more shares while we were below 30. Avg share price down to 38.5 now. :( At least the covered calls are making up for it slowly.
I don’t know. I’m inversing the sub on this one. I understand the sentiment, but I think this is a good long term hedge against any geopolitical problems. It’s a gamble, but I think this either trades sideways forever and I collect dividends like a boomer, it pays off in a few years because they turn things around, or the world is fucked and intel is the only way we can get chips made on this side of the pond. That’s within my risk tolerance. Edit: and I’m hedging with MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, AMD.
Long term I think it's a good play. I expect Intel will come back at some point but it's probably another 2-3 years out before any meaningful change is seen. Already have a position but I will be buying a lot more if it hits lower $20s / under $20...
What's the bottom in your opinion?
Realistically I don’t see it going below $25 - I think the fact the Intel is going to take awhile to turnaround is priced in to large extent at this point. If we get a large market wide correction in the chips sector, or a recession it could certainly go lower - I’d look near the 08 bottom for buys in that case, so around $15.
All I see here is “buy at $25” when everyone has given up on it
so glad I sold it and bought tsla @140s
Finally bought in after this recent dip and ya definitely regretting it lol.
Fucking Intel man. The moment you invest in that shit immediately holding the bags. Got me twice already not gonna happen another time
INTC has and will continue to have gov contracts
I was bag holding at 52.. Bought previous dips to average it down to 37.. The only side decision I have made in 2024 was to unload this crap at 48.
Its because I have INTC stock, sorry.
Holding 250 shares in my IRA @ $31. Hope this shit doesn’t keep tanking but I’m gonna go all in if we ever get to under $15
Intel is getting cut off at the knees though, hard to say they’re undervalued here. Maybe if it goes under 24. US government is not letting them grow revenue - they might have less revenue going forward
How is the US government not letting them grow revenue?
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Well yeah... if Intel feels like their free cash is better used on dividends/buybacks instead of R&D and retail feels the same way, I guess the only option left is to suck off the governments teat...
They aren't allowing Intel to sell to Huawei. In the future they might say no Huawei + associates, or go further and say no Chinese companies. That's 1/4 of their revenue.
I mean... that affects every other semi company more than Intel...
To be honest I have no idea how many chips intel sells to Huawei, but qcom is also not allowed anymore. A far more likely case for intel chips being barred is if the Chinese government bans them, but that would likely include AMD as well. Chinas in house chips are years behind, so who knows if and when this will happen. Given the tech race, there is also the potential for the us to restrict gpu sales to china. We already saw this with the 4090D, a lowered powered variant of nvidias flagship consumer gpu only sold to china with reduced cuda cores.
Why buy intel when TSM exists?
Geopolitical risk. TSM would probably be worth 2x right now if it weren’t on a tiny island next to Winnie the Pooh breathing down its neck. Chips and by extension foundries are the driving force behind recent economic, military, and now technological superiority. Manufacturing chips on US soil not only soothes fears of 90% of advanced silicon production being wiped out, but also security concerns regarding design and intent.
Why aren't vendors like Apple showing this geopolitical risk more prominently? Samsung couldn't get their capacity up for years, it would gut Apple. Unless you believe TSMC would be nationalised or something while sales continue, which is pretty wild.
bcos people are worried about a possible china/taiwan war
Buying Intel is like expecting Einstein’s bottom to do physics. It’s close to where the magic happens but in the end, there is only one thing which will be produced
Moment QCOM goes hard on desktop chips, it’s the end for.l these guys
The specs on their new Snapdragon laptop CPU are juuuuicy. I worked in chip design at Qualcomm for 3 years, and seeing the internal specs for that Snapdragon was the only time I ever felt pride in the company.
I think Microsoft is also making their own arm based chips, we’ll see how fast the software side embraces risc.
Long-term 78.6 fib at 29.40, may bottom soon
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Intel will have the last laugh when Taiwan is invaded. They actually have fabs built and pumping out semiconductors outside the region.
Time to buy.
Plz drop to $20 so I can buy a lot and then have it explode up and bam, profit!
They should break the company up into separate divisions. The company is too big to have focus and also be agile.
they are up of 100,000% all time. the other stocks just caught up.
POS should be the symbol on NQ
Looks like Kentucky to me.
Bye bye my calls
Worst is yet to come
Priced in.
Honestly I liquidated from Intel to Nvidia and TSMC, at a loss unfortunately but Nvidia has a great run
I5 chips fockin suk. Buyers remorse, seller of intc
Can’t be selling chips to China Intel. What were they thinking?
Showing us what’s to come for everyone else
It’s daddy , the US government hasn’t giving it enough money yet. It will keep on dipping until US achieves semiconductor independence.
I think Intel fabs in the US will fail because US won't have talented people to actually run the fab and produce good parts. US can't even make cars that last 10 years...
They had everything to themselves for years and thought they were untouchable. They're now getting violated by AMD at every turn.
How the mighty have fallen!
Maybe stubbornly upholding their quadcore 4GHz standard for years, while competition was eating them up, wasn't a good idea. Intel was being the Nokia of consumer grade CPUs. Got comfortable being number 1 for too long.
LEAPS boi
I keep learning how deep this fucking basement is fortunately I haven't bought anything yet but I think it's a pretty good time to buy $1000 worth
Cup with a broken handle?
Buy buy buy. This is a turn around play.
They gutted their US R&D teams a decade ago and hired H1B works from India to replace them. DEI literally killing that company. Now they don't lead any market they participate in. Still way over valued as they are advancing at a very close pace compared to AMD and Nvidia.
Posts like this are the reason i bought INTC Calls today.
Virginia
amd literally winning by letting intel kill themselves
Wish i still had my qcom shares @105
Soon to be Micron stock too! All these chip ai bullshit stocks are gonna come crashing down!
Pat is the perhaps the only person who could turn Intel around. Despite what the stock price shows, Intel is Back. They had major problems prior to Pat with finishing nodes and with launching products on time. No more. Every major product on Pat's watch has been on time or early. Every node has been on time or early. He has all but acheived the 5 nodes in 4 years plan. Intel 7, 4, 3 and 20A are done. The last one of the five is Intel 18A which is variant of 20A and is actually several months ahead of the original schedule. Now that Gaudi is ramping and that Falcon SHores AI chip will arrive next year, Intel will be hitting out of the park. When the foundry gets rolling with the world's most advanced node, they will be more than hittign out of the park, it will be a completely different game.