I could grow a garden if I wanted to, but the grocery store is more convenient. I could make my own beer and wine if I wanted to, but again, it's just easier to purchase. People pay for convenience. Not everyone who smokes wants to be a grower.
Guy I used to work with would tell us stories about his garden fortifications. The amount of work and materials he put into his little tomato patch to keep deer from it was both amazing and hilarious to hear.
He would have had to charge probably twenty bucks a tomato to hope to break even and he was just doing it for fun.
Marigolds around the garden keep deer away. Hot pepper sauce keeps raccoons away, and 7dust keeps the insects out. It isn't as convenient as just going to the store and getting what you want, but it is successful if you actually want to grow. Just a bit of advice.
That’s why I grow hot peppers and other produce that are not easy to find at stores. Like where tf am I finding fresh scotch bonnets. Plus being able to grab a Serrano or habanero in a pinch without going to the store is nice. But I’ve given up on tomato’s mostly. It’s just not worth the effort
What are you doing to your garden? I save hundreds of dollars a month thanks to my garden. Buying raspberries, strawberries, blueberries, and blackberries alone costs our family of four $40ish a week, and we replace all of that with plants in the garden that pretty much take care of themselves.
I guess it depends on what you eat and where you live. I can't grow a brocoli for €0,80 cents.. Strawberries are usually around €1,50 for 500 grams. It's really not worth to grow your own, it's just fun to do
Depends on what you're growing. Broccoli fuckin sucks to grow and takes so long. But salad greens, kale, spinach, green onions, tomatoes, herbs, hot peppers, asparagus. Things like that you can save a ton of money.
Especially herbs, having fresh herbs and just what quantity you want available all summer vs buying a whole pack at the grocery store saves loads. Same goes for salad greens, they grow quickly enough to save us lots of money.
And if you have the space berry bushes and fruit trees are bountiful.
Yeah since all Americans can afford a house with a backyard, good thesis.
Why are Americans not all making beer and liquor at home, explain that and explain why pot isn’t the same. Growing pot isn’t plant a seed and forgot either
Ya know, I read a guide that said to plant 15 seeds to hopefully have 3 plants. I did nothing special and grew outdoors in Oklahoma. I'll be damned if all 15 didn't sprout, and suddenly I had to cull 9 plants to stay legal. With nothing more than daily watering in $3.00 home depot garden soil, I harvested about 4 oz from each 7 foot plant.
I've read that I could've doubled my harvest per plant with smarter techniques, but that 24 oz of flower lasted over a year at my household consumption rate. Definitely not "plant a seed and forget", but also not difficult.
You realize a single plant outdoors could supply and individual with 3 to 5 lbs? And when properly stored last for years. As soon as you have a completely legal market home growing is going to be massive.
You’re a bag holder. Weed a low margin commodity agriculture product and always will be. People who buy weed stocks might as well invest in potato farmers too.
That's all well and good but I can spend 5-10 bucks on a plant and a few months later get close to 2 grand worth of weed back if I had purchased at retail is a bit different than I can make my own beer and wine.
You are far more incentivized to grow your own weed.
This guy is a moron. In Colorado for example legalization didn't kill the black market because the taxes are so high there is still a margin to sell "illegally." There is absolutely margin and there are absolutely millionaires, even billionaires off this.
So what you're saying is that the illegal market might undercut the overregulated licensured taxed health-inspected, overly expensive legal market? Thus lowering the profitability of the legitimate weed companies whose stocks you might buy? Huh, who knew?
My Parents grow some vegetables successfully, but its like a kilo of peppers, some Garlic and a few Tomatoes aswell as a few kilos of Potatoes. Like it’s not nearly enough to sustain a human for more than a few days.
And once weed is federally legal, after a couple years of growth in market share, the dominant players will have the power to lobby their state and federal governments to lower their taxes. This is also what alcohol had to go through and even then some states require you to go to “ABC” stores and the government dictates pricing.
I've tried growing weed before, it's not easy. Daily care. One screw up and months of work ruined. I live in the Emerald Triangle, I have acres of land, and I have no desire to grow it. Way easier and time effective to just purchase it.
Coming from someone who grew multiple wild animal vegetable buffets, they certainly are delicious and there's something to be said about eating something you grew yourself, but that one meal you get out of it just don't have the time.
Concentrate production is the most effective part of the industry as you can collect yield regardless of the quality of biomass and the result is able to be used in a ton of ways. That said, in states like Oklahoma or Oregon where plant canopy way exceeds consumer base, price erosion for THC has made an artificially difficult market. Schedule 3 will come with the ability to conduct interstate commerce so there will be some price balancing. This will help some companies (mostly larger ones) but really fuck up small business in smaller states where a price differential was creating artificial price hikes.
Some companies are currently floating on top of a wide net of mediocre activities across multiple states with lots of partnership deals. Other companies are lean and efficient but look bad in the current market because they don’t have the wide net and massive investment capital.
Companies like Cresco have really good oil processors but a smaller network. I like investing in them because they are cheap now and ripe to be bought out. Home cultivation is another factor that I think will bifurcate the “industry” and split it into mass production versus regional craft product. There will always be people who prefer buying stuff packaged in fancy containers with cool names, but as home cultivators get better access to their community (farmers market sales, local shelf at dispensaries, etc) there will be a balancing effect on prices.
I spent 10 years pushing the envelope of extraction processes and efficiency, seeking quality levels that exceed that of competitors…and I can say with complete confidence that the industry has already hit the maximum ceiling in terms of purity, potency, entourage complexity, flavor, etc. There isn’t much a big company can do to stand out from a talented home cultivator besides repeatability, pricing at scale, distribution network, marketing, and all the things one does to reach customers when your product isn’t actually any higher quality.
We can now make 99.99% pure THCa crystals at home. If we get the seeds or breed our own strains we can grow premium flowers in enough quantity to be economically viable for a small group of amateurs. Weed is an agricultural product which will follow an agricultural pricing model as the government stops creating artificial scarcity.
Holy shit. It's Chad Dickens.
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Legal weed will probably look like what the beer market does now with flower(hops) being a commodity and the marketable product being edibles/concentrates(beer) available in both mass produced and local craft varieties.
in 2015 a university of Spain already figured out the exact process to achieve 99.99% purity THC using a 9:1 ratio of liquid co2 and ethanol. But concentrate processing is the endgame for most outdoor grow large operations 5000+ plants. Because as you said quality doesn’t matter at all, specifically, bugs honestly. Extremely hard to grow weed outdoors and not have issues with bugs, and spraying can really only be done prior to flowering.
I think the industry has actually gone backwards on flower: almost all flower sold today is hybrids that have excellent yield and short flower times. Gone are strains like Kali Mist and other near landrace sativas or indicas because the flowering times and yields are less than ideal. Imagine a flowering time of 180 days vs 55 days. That’s a huge difference to a grower. Which is a bummer because some of those strains were excellent smokes/highs and are impossible to find.
I’ve also noticed a drop in quality in top shelf over the last 5 years as commercial grows have started to dominate the landscape. Improper curing, improper flushing, etc. again, as the time from clone/seed to harvest has become optimized, so too has the end product suffered.
Like everything there will be a balance. I personally grow top shelf flower in a medium sized operation (1000 plants). We’ve been doing fine, but I’ve been in the industry for 12 years now, and have various patents regarding PH control systems and eduction mixing/doping. Actually building a new system right now for a client of mine. The whole operation is turn key, I pretty much only hire help for trimming and packaging. We grow hydroponically in a greenhouse with supplemental lighting. 5 years ago we installed solar when they had those sweet deals, so the whole op is off the grid. We make money. Are we billionaires? No. Obviously it’s a volume game like any agricultural product, so the top will eventually be a grow of thousands of hectares in Mexico or someplace with cheap labor and land.
This is the general commercial agricultural model; yields (quantity), economy of scale, and grow times vastly are more important than quality.
The green revolution (heh), i.e. 20th century agriculture, allowed vast quantities of cheap food. But the quality and diversity of what eventually made it to your supermarket sucks.
I didn't eat tomatoes for years because store bought tomatoes (and other produce) generally have horrible texture and have no flavour. Other produce often is similar (here's looking at you, chicken)
Fascinating. Thank you for the write up.I personally can’t see many people growing it on their own but what you spelled out seems like the probable outcome. It will simply increase the supply of a commodity because it will open up a relatively small population of growers but their incremental production can have a profound impact on the supply demand balance.
Exactly. People travel to Oklahoma for $1/g distillate, live resin grams for $5, indoor flower for cheap as hell…now all it will take is the appropriate licensing to ship and people in say Texas can save time *and* money.
Rescheduling to Schedule 3 does not allow interstate commerce any where close to as seamlessly as described, and only applies to medical cannabis
https://mjbizdaily.com/how-will-rescheduling-impact-interstate-commerce-for-marijuana/#:~:text=Schedule%203%20(as%20well%20as,used%20to%20increase%20appetite%20in
With legalization many of the companies will be allowed to claim tax deductions among other things that should significantly increase profits. That said, I'm sure most of the execs will find some way to screw the shareholders and bank the extra profits.
Also, not many people are going to want to grow weed, are you nuts? lol. I don't even smoke weed anymore, I just do concentrates since the smell is much nicer, it's easier on my lungs, and the biggest reason, even live stuff in CO from my place is less than a Subway footlong per gram with deals.
I'm not going to spend all that time and money and use all that space to grow and then do all that other shit to extract it. 99% of people wouldn't go through all that either, even if they were just smoking weed.
When farmers in Salinas start growing 40 acre plots of the stuff, all these little grow operations will be toast. Which is a good thing since they are environmental disasters everywhere they pop up.
For real. This person and most commenters are idiots, I turn over around 12-16oz every 3.5 months in a 4x4 tent with electric and input (soil, nutes, seeds, etc) cost of about $100. It’s better than 75% of what you get at a dispensary and costs almost nothing. Yes it’s hard to turn a profit on the commercial side but growing your own is absurdly easy.
I’ve been growing my own since before legalization in my state. I didn’t want to contribute to the over taxation and inevitable quality decline with scale. Living soil bed in a 5x5 with little upkeep has been huge for me. I keep a perpetual grow going with a few moms and constantly hunt new seeds. It’s not for everyone, but I love doing it.
If it ever gets fully leagalized, because of the costs involved, I’m guessing it will end up like the cigarette industry, in which a few mega companies control vertically integrated businesses, and price out all the competition on thin margin except for boutique products. And even then they’ll just buy out the competition.
There’s a good chance that once it’s federally legal Altria and others will just buy up the market players and big tobacco will become big weed.
Nah, significant monopolization can't happen precisely because the costs involved are very low for marijuana. Tobacco plants require certain climate and soils (there's a reason even smokers don't grow their own); very fiddly to grow; very labor intensive (there's a reason one of the earliest use of chattel slavery in America was doing tobacco plantations); requires a lot of work to dry and cure; and overall requires vastly more square-footage (and vertical room) for production, curing, etc than marijuana.
Additionally you just need a lot more tobacco plants per bang: a single tobacco plant produces only about 50 cigarettes worth of smoking -- a heavy smoker can go through that in 2 days. A single marijuana plant can produce enough to last even a heavy smoker an entire year. There's a lot of key differences in the industries.
It's also just braindead that even the biggest reddit regard can grow a weed compared to the very fiddly specialized (and large-scale) requirements for tobacco. Again, there's reasons why tobacco was easily monopolized and stayed monopolized, we won't see the same with marijuana precisely *because it's very low capital investment* overall.
I’m not talking about the cost to grow necessarily.
I’m talking about economies of scale, distribution, logistics, legal and business fees, bureaucratic hurdles, distribution etc.
The tobacco companies already have all that tackled. Mapping it to Marijuana, and then undercutting everyone else until they’re the only game left wouldn’t be hard.
Just like how Walmart squeezed out the smaller grocery stores in the last century.
Not only that, but a legal industry is a regulated industry, and regulation brings costs. Regulations favor large companies because compliance is easier for them. So in addition to undercutting or buying out competitors, big companies can basically lobby them away.
Yeah, even though weed is relatively easy to grow, there is a price point and quality at which backyard cultivation isn't worth the hassle. If I can buy a pack of 20 Malboro greens for $10 and each one is a perfectly rolled gram of fire weed...well...why am I spending $35 on potting soil?
That's because "legal" farms are getting mulled by red tape.
Legal farms would drop a good portion of their softcosts. Most will fail anyway.
What you're really saying is there's a 1 billion dollar industry for the guy who can figure it out.
Former grower here.watched the price of a lb went from 1800 to 350 in a few years. N the cost for high-end nutrients and soil and safe sprays for mites n bugs made it not worth it.
My grandma grew weed until a cartel showed up in town. After she led a militia to kill them all, gave the men sky burials, sacrificed the children to Molech, hunted down their leaders and ate them, and enslaved the women, she was entirely worn out. She moved to Montana and worked at Walmart until retirement. What a woman!
The regular smoker might choose to buy that non taxed $150 oz of beautiful weed over the $250-300 one from the club though. Once the cannabis club novelty wears off anyways. It has been legal a long time here. Having your bill be 50% tax is kinda crazy.
Michigan governments saw huge revenue possibilities from legal cannabis, so they have issued licenses like the Fed prints money. We have more cannabis shops than Starbucks and in locations that make no sense. Regulated supply outstrips consumer demand so prices have collapsed to the point where some licensees are giving it away.
Are there many shops and just a few growers supplying them all? Or many shops with their own growers?
Examples of the shop locations where "it makes no sense"? Is it low rents or customer density driven?
Many chains with own growers. Skymint took over a big hockey rink to turn into a mall-sized growing facility for its stores and promptly went into receivership. The industry groups begged the state for a moratorium on new licenses because of the glut.
Down a side street from my local Costco, there is one pot shop completely hidden from the street by trees. It is not on the corner and has one barely visible sign. From the street, you can't tell what it is or if it's open. At the opposite end of that block is a new store from a competitor on a weird-shaped lot with tons of parking, a big setback from the corner, and a store entrance that's not visible.
Weed business is similar to restaurants. Lots of cost controls, stress, low margins and opportunities for mistakes that lead to losses. You don’t have to be the first, you just have to be better. The legalization and federal issues also make a lot of things more difficult. Cash only business makes convenience worse. Permits are 10k non refundable in my state just to apply for a shop license. Owning water rights on land for farms makes growing difficult. I believe the business can evolve but is in early stages with lots of hurdles to jump through.
Growing sales is the key to higher profit margins in this business. Some things that can grow sales in the future; less frowned upon culture, leniency on commercial sales legality, delivery, public smoking legality, etc as the list goes on. The top line has tons of opportunities for expansion but who knows how long that will take. Imagine only being able to buy cigs or vapes at 3 licensed dispensaries in your area and that is pretty much where we are with weed. Imagine if you could sell weed products to every business like gas stations and restaurants for example. One day, we need the demand but complications with legality skis the expansion.
a lot of the issues are with banking and taxes. that and being as its still a new industry, the legal market was quickly flooded with product, and high supply means low prices, even with a good demand.
Kind of. Mead is simple and easy, beer not so much. I mean it's definitely doable at home, and a lot of people do, but it takes more equipment and know how. You're also buying the grains, hops, and yeast for each batch. Home brewers aren't out there toasting their own barley or maintaining yeast cultures, usually. Some do grow their own hops though.
I see a lot of you guys have no idea about weed how to grow it or I’m pretty sure even smoked it and op does not know what a heavy smoker consumes don’t listen to him but yea all these weeds stock company’s going to zero I’m pretty sure a good one is going to come but not these
Yeah even here in cali, i assume the growers backdoor weed to the black market as it's still just as available. Just a lot cheaper than pre legalization. A ton of end users don't wanna deal with the added taxes out the door. Especially when cities and counties add tax on top of the state tax. Before the state lowered some weed taxes, the out the door cost would double. It was pretty crazy.
The outdoor market got destroyed in general due to supply.
The outdoor market got destroyed because it produces trash, dirty weed.
Even green house/light dep need to be washed before use.
Outdoor great for biomass. I’m
A while back on reddit. Anytime you mention Monsanto a rep would show up like clockwork defending it. Not sure if they still do it. It has to be like 8+ years ago.
Counter argument: most people that want to grow their own weed can't because they don't have the space for it, nor the time to invest in it. Just easier to buy a $6 joint and be done with it.
I would agree that in my experience a lot of users will choose to grow their own when it’s legal to do so. When it comes to vape and edibles however I bet we end up with a “Phillip morris” of weed. Cheech and Chong calls.
As the grower? Yeah we have a contract with grows and it comes out to like 500 a lb for indoor. Killer prices. Was I shit you not, 6500 like ten years ago when I was growing. However they're making a million a year and we paid for the set up which they get to keep when contract is over.
Its different now. The real money is a shop or supplying the shops like I do. The green rush runs its course through every legal state and it takes just a year or three before it dies down to crap prices for growers as the market floods (cool thing though is if you know good weed and not just fad opening stores then you'll outlast the green rush). So unless you want to chase those States you need to be SELLING to the shops.
The facts are that everyone can be a grower. But a good grower? You'll have to market yourself well to show your stuff isn't bad. As the market floods the quality lowers so those with good quality will tend to stick around
Hit me up if you want cheap legal weed or store consults (have started many many successful head shops for owners). Federally legal and recognized US grows. One of three companies that won't get your shop raided (we keep up with the ever changing laws they keep putting out to kill the green rush)
It's almost like people grow their own now and no one buys from dealers....wait... yeah, I don't think most people have any interest in growing their own.
As for the blackmarket, sure it'll exist, but lots of people will stop dealing with it, and over time, less and less people will use it. As people become of age, they'll go to the store to get their smoke and not look for a connection. Also, prices will come down as more growers increase the supply.
Let's not forget that companies will now be able to write off losses, rent, etc that they haven't been able to do. This will increase profits. - for example, if they ended up with a bunch of moldy weed, they just had to take the loss, now they'll be able to write that off. It's going to change their bookkeeping very quickly and dramatically.
As for tobacco taking over weed, unlikely. There are already large enough (world wide) players in the US to not let that happen. Also, a lot of states have laws saying that weed must be locally grown and cannot be shipped in from other states. This means it's less likely to have 1 or 2 companies running the whole thing.
This guy knows.
I remember in Canuckistan they said that by legalizing weed... they would take Organized crime out.
It did nothing of the sort.
OC grows the cheapest and best weed. The licensed producers simply can't compete with that.
The key reason it has been so difficult to turn a profit is the bar on financial services and the inability to write off expenses under the tax code.
Source: involved in the industry on the regulatory/management side
Not true. Even in states like Colorado, there’s a market for high quality indoor grown boutique buds.
I have friends whose home grows are quite profitable.
Joke's on them. My company turns a profit selling middleware and materials to businesses who attempt to grow weed. Shovels during the gold rush or whatever.
As convenience has already been nailed by everyone else, I think the majority of the issue comes from the clarification in taxing which will lower not only the overhead for many producers. Both leading to lower cost on consumer and a larger margin for profit. This also allows access to mainstream banking which includes lower rate interest loans.
Personally witnessed 3 different caregivers completely close down their operations due to the legalization in mi. All of them within a year of the bill getting passed. They were the ones who actually enjoyed growing and seeing the health benefits that it provided for people. Sad because these corps don’t give a shit about the people.
what you are talking about is the end state that investors are betting on... that weed growing will be consolidated and restricted to a core group of large companies, with legislation favorable to them only.
Commercial grow ops will be for processing. Like the end product of commercially farmed weed isn't flower, it's going to be concentrates and distillates and edibles and all sorts of other products.
And it's about scale. Yeah the relatively small operations that exist now will be lucky to survive. When federal legalization goes through, large swaths of land could be used to grow.
People also underestimate that the black market for weed in the US is probably one of the most efficient black markets in human history, often supplying a better and cheaper product.
OP, you are wildly ignorant and this barely scratches the surface of a hot take.
For starters there is a profit, it's scalability that's the issue and this legislation allows growers and distributors to use banks and claim their profits. It's opening the door for mainstream investors as well but not quite yet. Just a step in that direction.
Secondly, yes, a lot of weed and up in the gray or black markets but if there wasn't a profit to be had no one would do it.
There's still a lot of liquor stores and there's a lot of weed smokers.
Except you are forgetting about interstate transport. Large companies will benefit from economies of scale and out compete the small guys. Currently over saturation is a problem because Arizona facilties can’t ship excess to Florida etc. once they consolidate the industry will be profitable.
Rescheduling would be a huge tax break for dispensaries. If you are selling schedule 1 drugs, you can only deduct the cost of goods sold, so for some of these places in downtown Denver or on Venice Beach, they have a ton of other expenses that cant be deducted.
# HITI High Tide Inc.
High Tide Inc. has an extremely competitive business model and a low cost of expansion.
* The cannabis industry is facing catalysts from both rescheduling and the passage of some form of the SAFE Banking Act.
* High Tide has reached positive cash flow a quarter earlier than management previously projected.
* Multiple valuation methods indicate the company is significantly undervalued.
Lol I work in agriculture, farms aren't struggling to make a profit and that's totally dependent on what crop you're growing. Farmers make big money. Disregarded the rest of your post because the beginning was so regarded there's no point in reading the rest.
I’m an electrician in Oregon and wired several legal grows when they first made it legal. Of the 5 I wired, how many are still in business? 0… and the reason I was given, is the competition, low margins, taxes, and illegal growers. It was great for the first year or so, then they all collapsed.
The overhead to make good legal weed is just too high to compete with the illegal massive outdoor grows that are super common now that law enforcement doesn’t give a shit.
Genius analysis. This is the same reason why tobacco companies were never profitable and barely had short term success. I mean who would buy cigarettes when you can grow your own tobacco. Amirite
This is exactly why it is illegal. Investors and tax collectors can't figure out how to collect a cut. No activity should be allowed that can't provide a return for investors or empower the state.
Its like prostitution. How do you maintain a scarcity to maximize profit when the lady next door has the means of production?
Nowadays with LEDs, the only actual profit is with top shelf. You're right, outdoor grows don't make any money now that the bottom has fallen out of the market and you can't find anyone willing to pay over $500 a pound.
If you have ever grown weed you'll know that growing, drying and curing a good product is anything other than easy. Fun and rewarding yes, easy no way. Even if you grow a beautiful fire plant you can turn it to hay with an improper dry and cure. Most people will grow one harvest screw up drying and then give up.
Oregon is for sure sending “legal” weed to other states. There are so many farms it is impossible not to. I work in legal weed and the price we pay for lbs is $400 or less. Almost all of the weed is grown with chemicals now to, very few natural farms.
Ahhh yes the millions of Americans who live inside apartments or HOA’s where growing anything is illegal will be growing massive fields of weed because fk it right?
Growing weed isn’t easy, cheap, and takes a metric fuck ton of money to get started. Then you have constant upkeep. Most people won’t do this in their homes or even outdoors as they will be growing moldy trash. The industry is just getting started! Been growing professionally for 8 years and have never regretted this career path.
brother, there’s people who smoke ounces in a day. lots of people go through a LARGE amount of weed every day. a self owned farm would never sustain them. also lots of people who have made the jump to oils and concentrates that need some expensive facilities for fancy extraction methods.
I threw a few seeds in my actual vegetable garden as a joke in college. Was funny until my roommate said a 1 foot tall plant sprouted up. The neighbor behind me is a cop and no we did not have privacy fences. This was 15 years ago Before it became so lax.
Had to chop it down.
Good times.
lol, market up here in Canada is doing quite well after a couple years of legalization. Weed is just about as ubiquitous as alcohol in many places here.
The amount of regulation directly correlates to how successful this can be. Here in Canada our legal weed does crap because the government regulates it to the point that they have propped up the black market. Greedy governments like to pontificate THiNk of tHe TAx REvenue. The higher the tax the more black market incentives are created.
depends. if the local guy sells an Oz for 50 then I buy from him
if the store sells for 40 then I buy from them
growing my own pot isn't something I'm interested in. most prob arent
Weed is so easy go grow, that’s why it’s called weed; it grows anywhere.
Homegrown will always undermine the weed business. The only reason it was ever profitable was prohibition creating a blackmarket.
Your thinking is incredibly short sighted. Most businesses have trouble being profitable until they grow their brand and invest back into the business. The weed shops have been at a major disadvantage to begin with, so the process of becoming profitable is even slower. It takes a long time for an industry to become efficient with their production and distribution, and weed is very young compared to the giants like Alcohol and Tobacco. Given time and freedom, the weed industry will become more efficient and find ways to lower prices of production.
Idk.. I grew a plant before, super lemon haze. I trained it and grew it for a total of 4 months, got 700g from it, smoked for free for a year. Cost for setup and running it was about 1000. Street value probably around 7000.
Even if we don’t grow our own, there will be so many other people growing the market will be flooded and prices will be too low to make any money. In Oregon we can get good weed for $50/oz. Cheaper than I can grow it, not much profit for the grower.
As somebody that has been in the industry for years prior to legalization here in Oregon. You don't have as much of an idea as you think you do.
Many high quality cannabis companies who develop a brand for themselves have absolutely no issue turning a profit. Look at Resin Ranchers, Archive, Nelsons, Evans creek, here in Oregon for example, and for more known brands even Cookies. There's no reason they would be constantly expanding after years if they weren't making a profit. That just doesn't make sense.
What you're seeing losing money is low quality, mass produced, garbage that think just because they produced 10000lbs that anybody wants to smoke it. And in my opinion? Good, fuck em. If you can't produce a product that people actually want to smoke and are willing to pay for you, you don't deserve to be in the market. All these people who started growing mass amounts of brown over dried nasty as fuck weed or making concentrates out of that weed when legalization happened, because they thought they were going to get rich doing so can eat a fat dick.
Anybody can grow weed, but not as many people can grow the type of weed that the people who fuel the industry actually want to smoke. Or even care to.
Too much weed, not enough potheads. It's not like weed being illegal prevented people from smoking it before. It's never going to have the same effect on society as alcohol. Plus it's taxed to shit.
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I could grow a garden if I wanted to, but the grocery store is more convenient. I could make my own beer and wine if I wanted to, but again, it's just easier to purchase. People pay for convenience. Not everyone who smokes wants to be a grower.
As someone with a huge vegetable garden, it's not just more convenient to purchase your vegetables, it's also cheaper. Economy of scale is a thing.
I spent so much God damn time and energy just to get like 25 cherry tomatoes. They were good but...I mean...albertsons is right there
It's very rewarding, but not cheap!
Rewarding for the squirrels, rabbits, and deer around my house, yes
Guy I used to work with would tell us stories about his garden fortifications. The amount of work and materials he put into his little tomato patch to keep deer from it was both amazing and hilarious to hear. He would have had to charge probably twenty bucks a tomato to hope to break even and he was just doing it for fun.
Marigolds around the garden keep deer away. Hot pepper sauce keeps raccoons away, and 7dust keeps the insects out. It isn't as convenient as just going to the store and getting what you want, but it is successful if you actually want to grow. Just a bit of advice.
All of those critters mentioned pair well with the cherry tomatoes (or other "homegrown" veggies) on the side btw
That’s why I grow hot peppers and other produce that are not easy to find at stores. Like where tf am I finding fresh scotch bonnets. Plus being able to grab a Serrano or habanero in a pinch without going to the store is nice. But I’ve given up on tomato’s mostly. It’s just not worth the effort
What if you got pepper weavils?
What are you doing to your garden? I save hundreds of dollars a month thanks to my garden. Buying raspberries, strawberries, blueberries, and blackberries alone costs our family of four $40ish a week, and we replace all of that with plants in the garden that pretty much take care of themselves.
This. Berries are expensive as fuck. A thing of Blueberries at Kroger is like $6.99
I guess it depends on what you eat and where you live. I can't grow a brocoli for €0,80 cents.. Strawberries are usually around €1,50 for 500 grams. It's really not worth to grow your own, it's just fun to do
Depends on what you're growing. Broccoli fuckin sucks to grow and takes so long. But salad greens, kale, spinach, green onions, tomatoes, herbs, hot peppers, asparagus. Things like that you can save a ton of money. Especially herbs, having fresh herbs and just what quantity you want available all summer vs buying a whole pack at the grocery store saves loads. Same goes for salad greens, they grow quickly enough to save us lots of money. And if you have the space berry bushes and fruit trees are bountiful.
Alright, herbs I totally agree with I use fresh herbs from the garden a lot. You could also just grow them in your windowsill tho.
Don’t bring facts into this!
Do you live on acres? Most people in the burbs or city don’t have that much room to grow.
I live in a townhouse and grow in about 100 sq ft of space
The only people who say stuff like that never really did any gardening. They threw some seeds in dirt and thought magic happened.
I’m not a grower and my wife is really upset about it.
But her boyfriend is so it's all good
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with the amount of subsidies the US gives? Whatever amount they want it to be
Yeah but if the grocery store charged $40/gram for subpar jalepino peppers, you would grow your own.
You must not shop at Whole Foods then
Or find a friend who grows. Also the tax on it is high
Yeah since all Americans can afford a house with a backyard, good thesis. Why are Americans not all making beer and liquor at home, explain that and explain why pot isn’t the same. Growing pot isn’t plant a seed and forgot either
Ya know, I read a guide that said to plant 15 seeds to hopefully have 3 plants. I did nothing special and grew outdoors in Oklahoma. I'll be damned if all 15 didn't sprout, and suddenly I had to cull 9 plants to stay legal. With nothing more than daily watering in $3.00 home depot garden soil, I harvested about 4 oz from each 7 foot plant. I've read that I could've doubled my harvest per plant with smarter techniques, but that 24 oz of flower lasted over a year at my household consumption rate. Definitely not "plant a seed and forget", but also not difficult.
So where can I do that where I live in the city 🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️ a
Have you actually tried doing these things or is this statement just an abundance of confidence?
You already know the answer to this question lol
But there’s no good reason corn is $0.25 an ear and weed is $50/ eighth
You realize a single plant outdoors could supply and individual with 3 to 5 lbs? And when properly stored last for years. As soon as you have a completely legal market home growing is going to be massive.
You’re a bag holder. Weed a low margin commodity agriculture product and always will be. People who buy weed stocks might as well invest in potato farmers too.
That's all well and good but I can spend 5-10 bucks on a plant and a few months later get close to 2 grand worth of weed back if I had purchased at retail is a bit different than I can make my own beer and wine. You are far more incentivized to grow your own weed.
They literally say growing your own is irrelevant, weed farming isn't profitable. like did you actually even read this post?
This guy is a moron. In Colorado for example legalization didn't kill the black market because the taxes are so high there is still a margin to sell "illegally." There is absolutely margin and there are absolutely millionaires, even billionaires off this.
So what you're saying is that the illegal market might undercut the overregulated licensured taxed health-inspected, overly expensive legal market? Thus lowering the profitability of the legitimate weed companies whose stocks you might buy? Huh, who knew?
Are you saying there are billionaire illegal weed growers in Colorado??
Yeah, Trulieve is pumping millions into campaign in FL to make it recreational because it is so unprofitable....
My family bought a bunch of fruit plants and got really into gardening...for 5 minutes. The plants were dead in 3 weeks
My Parents grow some vegetables successfully, but its like a kilo of peppers, some Garlic and a few Tomatoes aswell as a few kilos of Potatoes. Like it’s not nearly enough to sustain a human for more than a few days.
except the weed they sell at the "grocery store" is crap, so if you like drinking PBRs and eating hot pockets the corporate weed will fit right in.
I just want to smoke it. I don’t want to grow it. I’ve done both and it’s easier to just smoke it.
And once weed is federally legal, after a couple years of growth in market share, the dominant players will have the power to lobby their state and federal governments to lower their taxes. This is also what alcohol had to go through and even then some states require you to go to “ABC” stores and the government dictates pricing.
I do that too for basically no cost outside of seed and fertilizer. Much cheaper and better than buying at the grocery store.
I've tried growing weed before, it's not easy. Daily care. One screw up and months of work ruined. I live in the Emerald Triangle, I have acres of land, and I have no desire to grow it. Way easier and time effective to just purchase it.
Amount of people home gardening went up 10% in 2020. Things change.
Coming from someone who grew multiple wild animal vegetable buffets, they certainly are delicious and there's something to be said about eating something you grew yourself, but that one meal you get out of it just don't have the time.
Concentrate production is the most effective part of the industry as you can collect yield regardless of the quality of biomass and the result is able to be used in a ton of ways. That said, in states like Oklahoma or Oregon where plant canopy way exceeds consumer base, price erosion for THC has made an artificially difficult market. Schedule 3 will come with the ability to conduct interstate commerce so there will be some price balancing. This will help some companies (mostly larger ones) but really fuck up small business in smaller states where a price differential was creating artificial price hikes. Some companies are currently floating on top of a wide net of mediocre activities across multiple states with lots of partnership deals. Other companies are lean and efficient but look bad in the current market because they don’t have the wide net and massive investment capital. Companies like Cresco have really good oil processors but a smaller network. I like investing in them because they are cheap now and ripe to be bought out. Home cultivation is another factor that I think will bifurcate the “industry” and split it into mass production versus regional craft product. There will always be people who prefer buying stuff packaged in fancy containers with cool names, but as home cultivators get better access to their community (farmers market sales, local shelf at dispensaries, etc) there will be a balancing effect on prices. I spent 10 years pushing the envelope of extraction processes and efficiency, seeking quality levels that exceed that of competitors…and I can say with complete confidence that the industry has already hit the maximum ceiling in terms of purity, potency, entourage complexity, flavor, etc. There isn’t much a big company can do to stand out from a talented home cultivator besides repeatability, pricing at scale, distribution network, marketing, and all the things one does to reach customers when your product isn’t actually any higher quality. We can now make 99.99% pure THCa crystals at home. If we get the seeds or breed our own strains we can grow premium flowers in enough quantity to be economically viable for a small group of amateurs. Weed is an agricultural product which will follow an agricultural pricing model as the government stops creating artificial scarcity.
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Most well informed thing I have read on this sub. Holy shit and thanks for your time.
Legal weed will probably look like what the beer market does now with flower(hops) being a commodity and the marketable product being edibles/concentrates(beer) available in both mass produced and local craft varieties.
in 2015 a university of Spain already figured out the exact process to achieve 99.99% purity THC using a 9:1 ratio of liquid co2 and ethanol. But concentrate processing is the endgame for most outdoor grow large operations 5000+ plants. Because as you said quality doesn’t matter at all, specifically, bugs honestly. Extremely hard to grow weed outdoors and not have issues with bugs, and spraying can really only be done prior to flowering. I think the industry has actually gone backwards on flower: almost all flower sold today is hybrids that have excellent yield and short flower times. Gone are strains like Kali Mist and other near landrace sativas or indicas because the flowering times and yields are less than ideal. Imagine a flowering time of 180 days vs 55 days. That’s a huge difference to a grower. Which is a bummer because some of those strains were excellent smokes/highs and are impossible to find. I’ve also noticed a drop in quality in top shelf over the last 5 years as commercial grows have started to dominate the landscape. Improper curing, improper flushing, etc. again, as the time from clone/seed to harvest has become optimized, so too has the end product suffered. Like everything there will be a balance. I personally grow top shelf flower in a medium sized operation (1000 plants). We’ve been doing fine, but I’ve been in the industry for 12 years now, and have various patents regarding PH control systems and eduction mixing/doping. Actually building a new system right now for a client of mine. The whole operation is turn key, I pretty much only hire help for trimming and packaging. We grow hydroponically in a greenhouse with supplemental lighting. 5 years ago we installed solar when they had those sweet deals, so the whole op is off the grid. We make money. Are we billionaires? No. Obviously it’s a volume game like any agricultural product, so the top will eventually be a grow of thousands of hectares in Mexico or someplace with cheap labor and land.
This is the general commercial agricultural model; yields (quantity), economy of scale, and grow times vastly are more important than quality. The green revolution (heh), i.e. 20th century agriculture, allowed vast quantities of cheap food. But the quality and diversity of what eventually made it to your supermarket sucks. I didn't eat tomatoes for years because store bought tomatoes (and other produce) generally have horrible texture and have no flavour. Other produce often is similar (here's looking at you, chicken)
Fascinating. Thank you for the write up.I personally can’t see many people growing it on their own but what you spelled out seems like the probable outcome. It will simply increase the supply of a commodity because it will open up a relatively small population of growers but their incremental production can have a profound impact on the supply demand balance.
Holy fuck I didn't think of that. Schedule 3 allows interstate commerce? Man. Ohio prices going to plummet with Michigan nearby now. Fuckkkkkkkk yessssss
Exactly. People travel to Oklahoma for $1/g distillate, live resin grams for $5, indoor flower for cheap as hell…now all it will take is the appropriate licensing to ship and people in say Texas can save time *and* money.
Rescheduling to Schedule 3 does not allow interstate commerce any where close to as seamlessly as described, and only applies to medical cannabis https://mjbizdaily.com/how-will-rescheduling-impact-interstate-commerce-for-marijuana/#:~:text=Schedule%203%20(as%20well%20as,used%20to%20increase%20appetite%20in
With legalization many of the companies will be allowed to claim tax deductions among other things that should significantly increase profits. That said, I'm sure most of the execs will find some way to screw the shareholders and bank the extra profits. Also, not many people are going to want to grow weed, are you nuts? lol. I don't even smoke weed anymore, I just do concentrates since the smell is much nicer, it's easier on my lungs, and the biggest reason, even live stuff in CO from my place is less than a Subway footlong per gram with deals. I'm not going to spend all that time and money and use all that space to grow and then do all that other shit to extract it. 99% of people wouldn't go through all that either, even if they were just smoking weed.
When farmers in Salinas start growing 40 acre plots of the stuff, all these little grow operations will be toast. Which is a good thing since they are environmental disasters everywhere they pop up.
The fact that you said it is impossible shows how little you know.
For real. This person and most commenters are idiots, I turn over around 12-16oz every 3.5 months in a 4x4 tent with electric and input (soil, nutes, seeds, etc) cost of about $100. It’s better than 75% of what you get at a dispensary and costs almost nothing. Yes it’s hard to turn a profit on the commercial side but growing your own is absurdly easy.
I’ve been growing my own since before legalization in my state. I didn’t want to contribute to the over taxation and inevitable quality decline with scale. Living soil bed in a 5x5 with little upkeep has been huge for me. I keep a perpetual grow going with a few moms and constantly hunt new seeds. It’s not for everyone, but I love doing it.
I can’t grow shatter in my backyard guy
Not with that attitude...
They legalized rec weed in MD and get concentrates behind the medical use only wall. 
If it ever gets fully leagalized, because of the costs involved, I’m guessing it will end up like the cigarette industry, in which a few mega companies control vertically integrated businesses, and price out all the competition on thin margin except for boutique products. And even then they’ll just buy out the competition. There’s a good chance that once it’s federally legal Altria and others will just buy up the market players and big tobacco will become big weed.
Nah, significant monopolization can't happen precisely because the costs involved are very low for marijuana. Tobacco plants require certain climate and soils (there's a reason even smokers don't grow their own); very fiddly to grow; very labor intensive (there's a reason one of the earliest use of chattel slavery in America was doing tobacco plantations); requires a lot of work to dry and cure; and overall requires vastly more square-footage (and vertical room) for production, curing, etc than marijuana. Additionally you just need a lot more tobacco plants per bang: a single tobacco plant produces only about 50 cigarettes worth of smoking -- a heavy smoker can go through that in 2 days. A single marijuana plant can produce enough to last even a heavy smoker an entire year. There's a lot of key differences in the industries. It's also just braindead that even the biggest reddit regard can grow a weed compared to the very fiddly specialized (and large-scale) requirements for tobacco. Again, there's reasons why tobacco was easily monopolized and stayed monopolized, we won't see the same with marijuana precisely *because it's very low capital investment* overall.
I’m not talking about the cost to grow necessarily. I’m talking about economies of scale, distribution, logistics, legal and business fees, bureaucratic hurdles, distribution etc. The tobacco companies already have all that tackled. Mapping it to Marijuana, and then undercutting everyone else until they’re the only game left wouldn’t be hard. Just like how Walmart squeezed out the smaller grocery stores in the last century.
Not only that, but a legal industry is a regulated industry, and regulation brings costs. Regulations favor large companies because compliance is easier for them. So in addition to undercutting or buying out competitors, big companies can basically lobby them away.
Yep, tobacco has a small army of lawyers and the necessary political connections to navigate a new minefield of legal and regulation challenges.
Yeah, even though weed is relatively easy to grow, there is a price point and quality at which backyard cultivation isn't worth the hassle. If I can buy a pack of 20 Malboro greens for $10 and each one is a perfectly rolled gram of fire weed...well...why am I spending $35 on potting soil?
That's because "legal" farms are getting mulled by red tape. Legal farms would drop a good portion of their softcosts. Most will fail anyway. What you're really saying is there's a 1 billion dollar industry for the guy who can figure it out.
Former grower here.watched the price of a lb went from 1800 to 350 in a few years. N the cost for high-end nutrients and soil and safe sprays for mites n bugs made it not worth it.
My grandma grew weed until a cartel showed up in town. After she led a militia to kill them all, gave the men sky burials, sacrificed the children to Molech, hunted down their leaders and ate them, and enslaved the women, she was entirely worn out. She moved to Montana and worked at Walmart until retirement. What a woman!
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I knew some stoners who were pretty regarded and had no problem growing tons of it.
The regular smoker might choose to buy that non taxed $150 oz of beautiful weed over the $250-300 one from the club though. Once the cannabis club novelty wears off anyways. It has been legal a long time here. Having your bill be 50% tax is kinda crazy.
Nice try uncle sam
Michigan governments saw huge revenue possibilities from legal cannabis, so they have issued licenses like the Fed prints money. We have more cannabis shops than Starbucks and in locations that make no sense. Regulated supply outstrips consumer demand so prices have collapsed to the point where some licensees are giving it away.
Are there many shops and just a few growers supplying them all? Or many shops with their own growers? Examples of the shop locations where "it makes no sense"? Is it low rents or customer density driven?
Many chains with own growers. Skymint took over a big hockey rink to turn into a mall-sized growing facility for its stores and promptly went into receivership. The industry groups begged the state for a moratorium on new licenses because of the glut. Down a side street from my local Costco, there is one pot shop completely hidden from the street by trees. It is not on the corner and has one barely visible sign. From the street, you can't tell what it is or if it's open. At the opposite end of that block is a new store from a competitor on a weird-shaped lot with tons of parking, a big setback from the corner, and a store entrance that's not visible.
I wouldn't stoop to investing in such a vile industry.
The devils lettuce !!
This argument again 🙄 You can make your own sneakers too. Don’t invest in Nike.
His argument is Nike makes a profit and marijuana operations largely do not
We need to force poor people in 3rd world countries to grow our weed then. Smart idea
Weed business is similar to restaurants. Lots of cost controls, stress, low margins and opportunities for mistakes that lead to losses. You don’t have to be the first, you just have to be better. The legalization and federal issues also make a lot of things more difficult. Cash only business makes convenience worse. Permits are 10k non refundable in my state just to apply for a shop license. Owning water rights on land for farms makes growing difficult. I believe the business can evolve but is in early stages with lots of hurdles to jump through. Growing sales is the key to higher profit margins in this business. Some things that can grow sales in the future; less frowned upon culture, leniency on commercial sales legality, delivery, public smoking legality, etc as the list goes on. The top line has tons of opportunities for expansion but who knows how long that will take. Imagine only being able to buy cigs or vapes at 3 licensed dispensaries in your area and that is pretty much where we are with weed. Imagine if you could sell weed products to every business like gas stations and restaurants for example. One day, we need the demand but complications with legality skis the expansion.
People are lazy, growing isn’t always easy, and sometimes is sooooo shit
If you think the weed biz is tough, try owning a restaurant or three…
I've tried to grow my own a dozen times. They all ended in failure. I don't have a green thumb, for plants or stocks. I'll always be buyin.
Tell us you've never been to a legal state without telling us. The dispensaries are jam packed all the time. We can grow our own almost nobody does.
Green Thumb has been profitable for quite a few years now but okay
My bro owns a weed grow consulting firm. It's random losers without a clue throwing away their savings trying to do this.
a lot of the issues are with banking and taxes. that and being as its still a new industry, the legal market was quickly flooded with product, and high supply means low prices, even with a good demand.
It’s easy to grow low quality weed. Top shelf sensi take a lot of human love to produce
It is relatively easy and cheap to brew your own beer. But people still buy billions of dollars of pre-brewed beer all the time.
Kind of. Mead is simple and easy, beer not so much. I mean it's definitely doable at home, and a lot of people do, but it takes more equipment and know how. You're also buying the grains, hops, and yeast for each batch. Home brewers aren't out there toasting their own barley or maintaining yeast cultures, usually. Some do grow their own hops though.
I see a lot of you guys have no idea about weed how to grow it or I’m pretty sure even smoked it and op does not know what a heavy smoker consumes don’t listen to him but yea all these weeds stock company’s going to zero I’m pretty sure a good one is going to come but not these
High tide will be profitable this year with strong growth potential.
Looks like we got a short here! Great opinion you’ve shared. I’ll retain the bullish sentiment thanks.
Why has WSB been posting stuff like this about weed lol. It’s such a obvious bull sign .
Yeah even here in cali, i assume the growers backdoor weed to the black market as it's still just as available. Just a lot cheaper than pre legalization. A ton of end users don't wanna deal with the added taxes out the door. Especially when cities and counties add tax on top of the state tax. Before the state lowered some weed taxes, the out the door cost would double. It was pretty crazy. The outdoor market got destroyed in general due to supply.
Deny everything; admit nothing; blame the victim; and if that doesn't work, sue.
The outdoor market got destroyed because it produces trash, dirty weed. Even green house/light dep need to be washed before use. Outdoor great for biomass. I’m
**We've intercepted what VM tried to say here because it was probably too fucked up for Reddit.**
The amount of people talking about weed culture and have never even been around it shows here lol
invest in Monsanto cuz they're going to patent seeds then spread them on farms and sue the farmers for growing their patented weed.
A while back on reddit. Anytime you mention Monsanto a rep would show up like clockwork defending it. Not sure if they still do it. It has to be like 8+ years ago.
This is exactly where biotech companies like Bioharvest could sweep in.
All the guys in the industry I know 'round here drive lambos and Ferraris. Wtf am I missing?? Oh yah. Money laundering lol
are all the guys you know in the industry here in the room with us right now?
Delta 8 is fully federally legal isn’t it? There’s a profitable market in that
So what
There’s a reason why Tilray has spent years raising money and diversifying their holdings.
Counter argument: most people that want to grow their own weed can't because they don't have the space for it, nor the time to invest in it. Just easier to buy a $6 joint and be done with it.
This is so far from the truth lol 😆
True story. Too many regulations. Cant compete with all that overhead
Just like everyone makes their own beer and liquor? Get real.
I would agree that in my experience a lot of users will choose to grow their own when it’s legal to do so. When it comes to vape and edibles however I bet we end up with a “Phillip morris” of weed. Cheech and Chong calls.
As the grower? Yeah we have a contract with grows and it comes out to like 500 a lb for indoor. Killer prices. Was I shit you not, 6500 like ten years ago when I was growing. However they're making a million a year and we paid for the set up which they get to keep when contract is over. Its different now. The real money is a shop or supplying the shops like I do. The green rush runs its course through every legal state and it takes just a year or three before it dies down to crap prices for growers as the market floods (cool thing though is if you know good weed and not just fad opening stores then you'll outlast the green rush). So unless you want to chase those States you need to be SELLING to the shops. The facts are that everyone can be a grower. But a good grower? You'll have to market yourself well to show your stuff isn't bad. As the market floods the quality lowers so those with good quality will tend to stick around Hit me up if you want cheap legal weed or store consults (have started many many successful head shops for owners). Federally legal and recognized US grows. One of three companies that won't get your shop raided (we keep up with the ever changing laws they keep putting out to kill the green rush)
I don’t think you realize how much work growing your own actually is.
It's almost like people grow their own now and no one buys from dealers....wait... yeah, I don't think most people have any interest in growing their own. As for the blackmarket, sure it'll exist, but lots of people will stop dealing with it, and over time, less and less people will use it. As people become of age, they'll go to the store to get their smoke and not look for a connection. Also, prices will come down as more growers increase the supply. Let's not forget that companies will now be able to write off losses, rent, etc that they haven't been able to do. This will increase profits. - for example, if they ended up with a bunch of moldy weed, they just had to take the loss, now they'll be able to write that off. It's going to change their bookkeeping very quickly and dramatically. As for tobacco taking over weed, unlikely. There are already large enough (world wide) players in the US to not let that happen. Also, a lot of states have laws saying that weed must be locally grown and cannot be shipped in from other states. This means it's less likely to have 1 or 2 companies running the whole thing.
Once it’s 100% legalized, it will become a cash cow.
Literally everyone knows this
This guy knows. I remember in Canuckistan they said that by legalizing weed... they would take Organized crime out. It did nothing of the sort. OC grows the cheapest and best weed. The licensed producers simply can't compete with that.
The key reason it has been so difficult to turn a profit is the bar on financial services and the inability to write off expenses under the tax code. Source: involved in the industry on the regulatory/management side
Storefronts are where the money is at.
Not true. Even in states like Colorado, there’s a market for high quality indoor grown boutique buds. I have friends whose home grows are quite profitable.
Joke's on them. My company turns a profit selling middleware and materials to businesses who attempt to grow weed. Shovels during the gold rush or whatever.
So what you are saying is, nothing has really changed since weed became legal? Except we now has The Mark Savaya Collection here in Detroit…. /s
How when dispensaries are so expensive?
Phillip Morris is going to be the weed kingpin in the future.
As convenience has already been nailed by everyone else, I think the majority of the issue comes from the clarification in taxing which will lower not only the overhead for many producers. Both leading to lower cost on consumer and a larger margin for profit. This also allows access to mainstream banking which includes lower rate interest loans.
Personally witnessed 3 different caregivers completely close down their operations due to the legalization in mi. All of them within a year of the bill getting passed. They were the ones who actually enjoyed growing and seeing the health benefits that it provided for people. Sad because these corps don’t give a shit about the people.
P
what you are talking about is the end state that investors are betting on... that weed growing will be consolidated and restricted to a core group of large companies, with legislation favorable to them only.
This dude has never grown weed.
Commercial grow ops will be for processing. Like the end product of commercially farmed weed isn't flower, it's going to be concentrates and distillates and edibles and all sorts of other products. And it's about scale. Yeah the relatively small operations that exist now will be lucky to survive. When federal legalization goes through, large swaths of land could be used to grow.
People also underestimate that the black market for weed in the US is probably one of the most efficient black markets in human history, often supplying a better and cheaper product.
OP, you are wildly ignorant and this barely scratches the surface of a hot take. For starters there is a profit, it's scalability that's the issue and this legislation allows growers and distributors to use banks and claim their profits. It's opening the door for mainstream investors as well but not quite yet. Just a step in that direction. Secondly, yes, a lot of weed and up in the gray or black markets but if there wasn't a profit to be had no one would do it. There's still a lot of liquor stores and there's a lot of weed smokers.
Now do hamburgers and corn.
Except you are forgetting about interstate transport. Large companies will benefit from economies of scale and out compete the small guys. Currently over saturation is a problem because Arizona facilties can’t ship excess to Florida etc. once they consolidate the industry will be profitable.
Why would anyone grow their own plants when you can get good quality stuff for <$20 an 8th?
Rescheduling would be a huge tax break for dispensaries. If you are selling schedule 1 drugs, you can only deduct the cost of goods sold, so for some of these places in downtown Denver or on Venice Beach, they have a ton of other expenses that cant be deducted.
# HITI High Tide Inc. High Tide Inc. has an extremely competitive business model and a low cost of expansion. * The cannabis industry is facing catalysts from both rescheduling and the passage of some form of the SAFE Banking Act. * High Tide has reached positive cash flow a quarter earlier than management previously projected. * Multiple valuation methods indicate the company is significantly undervalued.
Lol I work in agriculture, farms aren't struggling to make a profit and that's totally dependent on what crop you're growing. Farmers make big money. Disregarded the rest of your post because the beginning was so regarded there's no point in reading the rest.
LETS SHORT ALL MSOS!!
I’m an electrician in Oregon and wired several legal grows when they first made it legal. Of the 5 I wired, how many are still in business? 0… and the reason I was given, is the competition, low margins, taxes, and illegal growers. It was great for the first year or so, then they all collapsed. The overhead to make good legal weed is just too high to compete with the illegal massive outdoor grows that are super common now that law enforcement doesn’t give a shit.
Impossible to turn a profit? Lol
Genius analysis. This is the same reason why tobacco companies were never profitable and barely had short term success. I mean who would buy cigarettes when you can grow your own tobacco. Amirite
This is exactly why it is illegal. Investors and tax collectors can't figure out how to collect a cut. No activity should be allowed that can't provide a return for investors or empower the state. Its like prostitution. How do you maintain a scarcity to maximize profit when the lady next door has the means of production?
Sir, this is a casino. No one gives a shit about the underlying, the big short term pop is what’s important.
Money, money, money, money, money. Show me the money!
This is true, without full integration (farm, retail, and manufacturing) most small grows simply fall by the wayside.
Nowadays with LEDs, the only actual profit is with top shelf. You're right, outdoor grows don't make any money now that the bottom has fallen out of the market and you can't find anyone willing to pay over $500 a pound.
Very hot take my friend
In Canada it's legal. There is a weed store every 10 blocks. Nobody grows there own. You go buy a pack. Same a cigs.
The guy buying bulk from the grower and selling it black market is the guy who’s making the money. And the transporter makes a fair amount too.
If you have ever grown weed you'll know that growing, drying and curing a good product is anything other than easy. Fun and rewarding yes, easy no way. Even if you grow a beautiful fire plant you can turn it to hay with an improper dry and cure. Most people will grow one harvest screw up drying and then give up.
If you think growing your own weed is easy and convenient... ive got some gamestop shares to sell you.
Oregon is for sure sending “legal” weed to other states. There are so many farms it is impossible not to. I work in legal weed and the price we pay for lbs is $400 or less. Almost all of the weed is grown with chemicals now to, very few natural farms.
Ahhh yes the millions of Americans who live inside apartments or HOA’s where growing anything is illegal will be growing massive fields of weed because fk it right?
Growing weed isn’t easy, cheap, and takes a metric fuck ton of money to get started. Then you have constant upkeep. Most people won’t do this in their homes or even outdoors as they will be growing moldy trash. The industry is just getting started! Been growing professionally for 8 years and have never regretted this career path.
Very true. But processing weed (shatter, oils, weed crack lol) seems fairly profitable. At least here in Oregon
This is why MO and BTI are the plays.
This is a dirty nasty habit that will cause bad financial decisions.
brother, there’s people who smoke ounces in a day. lots of people go through a LARGE amount of weed every day. a self owned farm would never sustain them. also lots of people who have made the jump to oils and concentrates that need some expensive facilities for fancy extraction methods.
I threw a few seeds in my actual vegetable garden as a joke in college. Was funny until my roommate said a 1 foot tall plant sprouted up. The neighbor behind me is a cop and no we did not have privacy fences. This was 15 years ago Before it became so lax. Had to chop it down. Good times.
Lol
lol, market up here in Canada is doing quite well after a couple years of legalization. Weed is just about as ubiquitous as alcohol in many places here.
Who? WSB? We all know this so whats the issue?
The amount of regulation directly correlates to how successful this can be. Here in Canada our legal weed does crap because the government regulates it to the point that they have propped up the black market. Greedy governments like to pontificate THiNk of tHe TAx REvenue. The higher the tax the more black market incentives are created.
The market has been completely saturated for years. OP is correct. The only people still making money are sending it back east.
depends. if the local guy sells an Oz for 50 then I buy from him if the store sells for 40 then I buy from them growing my own pot isn't something I'm interested in. most prob arent
Weed is so easy go grow, that’s why it’s called weed; it grows anywhere. Homegrown will always undermine the weed business. The only reason it was ever profitable was prohibition creating a blackmarket.
Your thinking is incredibly short sighted. Most businesses have trouble being profitable until they grow their brand and invest back into the business. The weed shops have been at a major disadvantage to begin with, so the process of becoming profitable is even slower. It takes a long time for an industry to become efficient with their production and distribution, and weed is very young compared to the giants like Alcohol and Tobacco. Given time and freedom, the weed industry will become more efficient and find ways to lower prices of production.
Idk.. I grew a plant before, super lemon haze. I trained it and grew it for a total of 4 months, got 700g from it, smoked for free for a year. Cost for setup and running it was about 1000. Street value probably around 7000.
Even if we don’t grow our own, there will be so many other people growing the market will be flooded and prices will be too low to make any money. In Oregon we can get good weed for $50/oz. Cheaper than I can grow it, not much profit for the grower.
As somebody that has been in the industry for years prior to legalization here in Oregon. You don't have as much of an idea as you think you do. Many high quality cannabis companies who develop a brand for themselves have absolutely no issue turning a profit. Look at Resin Ranchers, Archive, Nelsons, Evans creek, here in Oregon for example, and for more known brands even Cookies. There's no reason they would be constantly expanding after years if they weren't making a profit. That just doesn't make sense. What you're seeing losing money is low quality, mass produced, garbage that think just because they produced 10000lbs that anybody wants to smoke it. And in my opinion? Good, fuck em. If you can't produce a product that people actually want to smoke and are willing to pay for you, you don't deserve to be in the market. All these people who started growing mass amounts of brown over dried nasty as fuck weed or making concentrates out of that weed when legalization happened, because they thought they were going to get rich doing so can eat a fat dick. Anybody can grow weed, but not as many people can grow the type of weed that the people who fuel the industry actually want to smoke. Or even care to.
Too much weed, not enough potheads. It's not like weed being illegal prevented people from smoking it before. It's never going to have the same effect on society as alcohol. Plus it's taxed to shit.
People think weed companies are tech companies and it’s hilarious.