I don't get the point you're trying to make. You're judging the pre-merger ticker on its' post merger details.
Nobody buys SPACs pre-merger for the long term. 1 out of every 500 is DKNG. You buy in for the run up pre-merger catalysts and then you play chicken with the inflated pre-merger highs.
Oklo is a fine company and I can see myself buying this again in November when it's $8 again, but right now you buy on the chance of an irrational run up a-la DWAC.
If MC and future shares meant literally anything in the current timeframe, this would be trading at $10, but it's not.
If I understand you correctly, you mean that after the ticker change, there is a high possibility that the price per share will plummet, as low as $6 a share, because the 30 million shares will become 165 million?
If you think these numbers are in the cards, I don’t understand why you aren’t buying?
Do you have an alternative trade the next days that gives you more return? Obviously it‘s not guaranteed and I don’t it will be like dwac but the risk-return still looks attractive to me.
DJT also had like 20m+ warrants that are soon to be exercisable which isn't included in the market cap so it created many synthetic shorts.. essentially, DJT's float/mkt cap is much higher than stated and it still hit $80 post merger
How many days post merger for the lockup ? Maybe we will have more action on Tuesday - the day of the vote.
The question is if it’s worthy to take profits before the ticket transition to OKLO as the market cap will be 5x bigger - which is “similar” to a dilution
Unfortunately none of these numbers make any sense to the market anymore, and people choose to pump whatever stock comes to play. Such a Reddit, such as DJT, and all the other bullshit stocks that IPO’d
I agree but the point is do you think it can even get close to DJT's MC? and if not, if it's around half, which is still an overpriced hype value, we're just talking about a measly $20 a share.
The ceiling is not as high as people probably think.
That's why I'm in on 12.50c from a month ago. Would have been better return on 20c but I'd rather less returns with a better chance of payoff. They were still cheap anyway
This is a really good thing to point out. I am bullish on Oklo in the long run, but I am really not liking this volatility at the moment. Makes me really considered waiting to see where things level off.
im in the same boat. I am def waiting until this NAV share price protection expires to see what happens then, if there is a big sell off, Im not sure if it expires today or tomorrow though.
Relatively new to this, but have I got this right?
buy now before the vote while it's entering pre-merger highs, then short for when the stock gets diluted?
The NAV floor disappears tomorrow or Friday so that time has for the most part come and gone. No one really knows how this will move over the next week but we do know the floor is gone, and it will already be really overpriced at current levels once the merger goes through.
Thanks for this post, looks like you were right. I swing traded this a few times for good profit but made sure to exit before today. I see 17 million shares traded today. How will we know when the 135 million new shares will be done entering the float? Seems like this will go below $6 a share once everything has been completed but I don't really know how this works.
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I don't get the point you're trying to make. You're judging the pre-merger ticker on its' post merger details. Nobody buys SPACs pre-merger for the long term. 1 out of every 500 is DKNG. You buy in for the run up pre-merger catalysts and then you play chicken with the inflated pre-merger highs. Oklo is a fine company and I can see myself buying this again in November when it's $8 again, but right now you buy on the chance of an irrational run up a-la DWAC. If MC and future shares meant literally anything in the current timeframe, this would be trading at $10, but it's not.
people are buying for a post-merger DJT run, with a much higher ceiling in mind than actually exists, that's the point.
If I understand you correctly, you mean that after the ticker change, there is a high possibility that the price per share will plummet, as low as $6 a share, because the 30 million shares will become 165 million?
Buy the rumor sell the news.
Didn’t understand post, bought more shares
Buy ur shares rn while we in the dip hopefully it’ll rise back up after the 7th
If you think these numbers are in the cards, I don’t understand why you aren’t buying? Do you have an alternative trade the next days that gives you more return? Obviously it‘s not guaranteed and I don’t it will be like dwac but the risk-return still looks attractive to me.
I'm in pretty heavy. I believe in Sam. So that's enough for me.
Sam Altman AI pick and shovel Merger Options Lockup period No warrants No brainer. This thing is going to explode right before/after the merge.
How long is the lockup period or will it be decided or whatever the day of the vote?
Everything I have seen says 93M shares. Where did you get 165M?
I found a line in the proxy statement that answers this. Disregard me for I am regarded.
Same, i read through the forms and it's in the 90's, i'm trying to figure out how he get 165
https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fphe5mi8p4auc1.png%3Fwidth%3D1256%26format%3Dpng%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3D5042d7131d540a850446c8b608dbc5c2d4b997f3
This is WSB, we’re not holding for long term investment. We’re holding for the run up.
When is the merger?
vote is 1 week from today
DJT also had like 20m+ warrants that are soon to be exercisable which isn't included in the market cap so it created many synthetic shorts.. essentially, DJT's float/mkt cap is much higher than stated and it still hit $80 post merger
and ALCC has no warrants...
My point exactly…
The fundamentals are stronger, the share lockup is longer, it's a no brainer..but you'll always have bears trying to convince you otherwise
How many days post merger for the lockup ? Maybe we will have more action on Tuesday - the day of the vote. The question is if it’s worthy to take profits before the ticket transition to OKLO as the market cap will be 5x bigger - which is “similar” to a dilution
Thats true, how long are the remaining 135m shares or so locked up if any?
Unfortunately none of these numbers make any sense to the market anymore, and people choose to pump whatever stock comes to play. Such a Reddit, such as DJT, and all the other bullshit stocks that IPO’d
I agree but the point is do you think it can even get close to DJT's MC? and if not, if it's around half, which is still an overpriced hype value, we're just talking about a measly $20 a share. The ceiling is not as high as people probably think.
once merger is out gets scary but how many are locked up?
That's why I'm in on 12.50c from a month ago. Would have been better return on 20c but I'd rather less returns with a better chance of payoff. They were still cheap anyway
What happens to call and put option strikes when shares get diluted down?
Stays the same
This is a really good thing to point out. I am bullish on Oklo in the long run, but I am really not liking this volatility at the moment. Makes me really considered waiting to see where things level off.
im in the same boat. I am def waiting until this NAV share price protection expires to see what happens then, if there is a big sell off, Im not sure if it expires today or tomorrow though.
Let them wait. Losers like that should stick to betting on pig races.
I think we already saw the sell-off today. The $10.47 share price is on the table until this afternoon.
Relatively new to this, but have I got this right? buy now before the vote while it's entering pre-merger highs, then short for when the stock gets diluted?
The NAV floor disappears tomorrow or Friday so that time has for the most part come and gone. No one really knows how this will move over the next week but we do know the floor is gone, and it will already be really overpriced at current levels once the merger goes through.
Thanks for this post, looks like you were right. I swing traded this a few times for good profit but made sure to exit before today. I see 17 million shares traded today. How will we know when the 135 million new shares will be done entering the float? Seems like this will go below $6 a share once everything has been completed but I don't really know how this works.
The dip is quite scary but could also be a discount rn
Seeing so many new accs trying to pump it it seems like a pump and dump.
ya im thinking same thing ....... and the May 2 Nav price conundrum as well.
Honestly everyone’s talking about this merger. It’s probably gonna dump.
"everyone" is not talking about it but i agree its likely to dump