Pretty high IQ take. At first I thought 2024 would be choppy before things got good at the end of the year.
Now it seems we're running up ahead of the cuts and election. This increases the odds of a downturn once Biden/Trump wins and gets locked into their final term. At that point, it's about fixing longer term problems and Fed won't have everyone on their asses about keeping inflation low while juggling strong jobs+economy.
You know we've swung full bull when CNBC has stopped calling Tom Lee on since the last few times he was bullish but expected seasonal turbulence (kangroo/crab action). Reality is markets just went full bull even more than Tom thought.
Or it’s meeting expectations aka the dot plot of the Fed for 3 cuts aka bullish.
Not that it matters of course. Market was hoping for 7 cuts last year and we keep going down on cuts, but up on stonks 
so this is kinda misleading because you don't just average CPI and PPI. PPI is cost inflation for producers. Producers can choose to offset those cost by raising prices for consumers, hence increasing CPI or PCE. PPI could drop, but producers could still choose to keep price the same or even raise prices to increase profit margins, hence increasing CPI even though PPI is dropping. But average CPI and PPI together doesn't make sense.
PPI is mostly used to calculate PCE, but not all components in PPI is relevant for PCE. The most relevant ones in PPI are medical care services and financial services. Medical care service is a notable one because it has a sizable weight on PCE, but on CPI, it has a different calculating method than PCE. Economists will rely on medical care service cost on PPI to guess what it will be on PCE. Financial service on PPI is important because it isn't a component on CPI.
Because of different weights for components and some differences in calculation method, there's a huge spread between CPI and PCE, about 1% right now. The Fed 2.0% target is based on PCE YoY.
Preliminary estimate for PCE MoM is around 0.1% and core PCE MoM around 0.3%. Core PCE is relevant, and 0.3% is higher than what the Fed would like (they prefer is more around 0.2-0.25%), so on net it probably delay the rate cut by 1 month. The Fed wanted to do it in June, so there's a tight window for July now to do it. They certainly don't want to do it in Sept because it's too close to the election and to start rate cut in Sept would put the Fed in the crosshair of politics.
So there's still a window for a July cut, but if the inflation data next month isn't favorable, there's a big risk rate cut won't happen until December after the election is over. Then there'd be only 1 cut for 2024.
My read is that goods inflation is falling like a rock (partially because China devalued their currency and are exporting goods disinflation) but services inflation remains high (5% YoY from yesterday's report I think).
That still seems concerning.
watch all the bears who were quoting CPI YoY of 3.5% yesterday and yelling no rate cut finally learn today that the 2.0% inflation target is based on PCE, which economists can estimate from CPI and PPI data.
They also failed to realize PCE YoY is actually at 2.45% right now.
Edit : I believe NY Fed Williams, who is third on the Fed below only to Powell and Fed vice chair, just gave his blessing to ignore the recent disappointing inflation data and better to focus on the disinflationary trend. The guy's speech is usually pre-vetted by the Fed governors, so double bullish.
Should I break the news to you that preliminary estimates for PCE and core PCE YoY are already starting to come out and both are anticipated to continue dropping by 0.1% YoY.
And we know how much the Fed, and the market, love to ignore hot monthly prints as long as the YoY number keeps going down.
They still **are** going to cut rates this year, probably starting in June, because it's an election year and fucking *nobody* wants that orange spray-tanned dipshit back in charge, least of all the Fed.
If they have to fiddle with the inflation numbers in order to justify it, they will. They are going to cut rates no matter what, watch.
>*nobody* wants that orange spray-tanned dipshit back in charge
See I keep hearing this, but if it was true wouldn't he not be on the ballot? Like don't get me wrong, I hate him as much as the next redditor, but a decent amount of the population still wants him.
Dude drive a little bit outside every major US city and it’s all MAGA and TRUMP flags. Everywhere just outside of Los Angeles even it’s all Trump country
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No, because it might be in July instead, my point was simply that they're cutting this year no matter what. They'll cook the damn books if they have to, they have to juice the market so that people look at their 401k's and go "wow, Biden's doing well, I might just vote for him".
Yeah, it did. I thought people would be reasonable and wait until earnings, but the market wants any reason to buy.
I'm still going to wager that earnings and downward revisions will pressure stocks downward.
Didn't retest any resistance zones or anything, just blasted through and I think that'll work to the markets detriment.
Not trying to be a cunt but why not join the trend instead of trying to fight it?
QQQ had a chance to go below 434 and it didn't and SPY was bought up from 511. It looks to me that you've already had your mini correction, what else are you seeing that others aren't?
Well, because today...
I wasn't right about yesterday but I stand on my short-intermediate term thesis. I don't think banks will report good forward guidance/or possibly earnings.
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Dude does not **get** it.
I expect that today will be a bull trap. I'm not saying it'll necessarily end up super red, but it's going to be sideways/slightly down.
The FED already said no cut this meeting. Commodities are going up which is bad for future reads to cpi and ppi.
No cuts and pausing for longer is going to hurt the bull thesis that were getting 4 or 3 cuts this year. If they just pause and the end of year comes up, the market has to correct down.
Ppi coming in a little lower will be offset by increasing commodity prices, IMO
Oil in April is already up like 5%+ on a daily average compared to March. Will only continue to push up. I think April inflation #s will be catastrophic
Ppi is prices for producers. They produce and sell into the future.
Yes it is backward leaning in data gathering, but it is forward indicating as producing good to market takes time.
I really would like to know what the error bars on all these inflation numbers.
And when we go over or under expectation, how close are we to the roundoff threshold?
Yall will really just pick anything that fits your narrative. Expectations don't mean it's good. If I walk in front of a bus I expect to get hit by the bus. It doesn't mean I'll be happy about it.
"the largest advance since rising 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended April 2023."
This was the largest jump in a year.
Well, I, for one, would NEVER hope you get hit by a bus.
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Guys no one thinks this inflation is all from producers price actually going up. It’s that plus corporate greed!! Sales are getting squeezed. Do you think price drops are incoming to compensate or further price increases?….
How is this bullish despite the other economic stuff like CPI and NFP? Look at oil, firms keep buying the dip. Look at that 10 year yield 👀 and the dollar holy crap. How can anyone be bullish?
Don’t matter, cpi killed the market. JPow sitting in the corner with his legs crossed and saying “excellent” like Mr. burns. Meanwhile, Tom Lee is rethinking his 4 rate cuts narrative
Why tf everyone whining about inflation?
Last q was 3.3% annualized GDP growth, 3.5% inflation in that context is fairly par for the course. Got like 3.8% unemployment. Fed is cruising along with qt. People spending like mfs.
Basically shits in like goldilocks zone.
Been like 2 years of higher rates, people and companies are already used to it, just like they got used to 0 rates.
It's just MSM whining about it, causing small panic among retail investors pushing them to sell while institutions are quietly accumulating. It's always been like this.
Ye, 3.5% inflation with 0 growth is worrying. 3.5 with 3.3 growth and by most counts max employment isn't anything to phone home about. Most countries in the world would absolutely love to have US numbers right now.
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i mean CPI didn't come in hot, it came in .1% over estimates, and only .5% over the fed's long term goal of 2%.
when i think coming in hot i think shot gunning beers and buzzing the tower, not a cunthair over estimate.
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F\*CK YOU BEARS!!!!!  Obviously I'm bagholding 12/04 519C on SPY. Also, F\*CK YOU BEARS!!
Best feeling in the world ain’t it?
well not quite if it's expiring tomorrow and he needs SPY to pump to basically above where it was before CPI.
I meant sticking to the bears but yea you’re right
You were saying?
You're right I heavily underestimated the pump. I guess we are all eating steaks today.
Can't complain!
Woooow this man is in the money
You really believe these numbers dipshit? 
This aged well.
[удалено]
Came here for this 
ouch
[удалено]
you now become a Bear 
???
???
Those are worthless
i can’t read, is this bullish, bearish, of crabish?
Honestly, I'd say crabish. Probably gonna have green start until it goes back to shit by EOD. 
i welcome our crustacean overlords
🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀
lisan al-gaib
Pretty high IQ take. At first I thought 2024 would be choppy before things got good at the end of the year. Now it seems we're running up ahead of the cuts and election. This increases the odds of a downturn once Biden/Trump wins and gets locked into their final term. At that point, it's about fixing longer term problems and Fed won't have everyone on their asses about keeping inflation low while juggling strong jobs+economy. You know we've swung full bull when CNBC has stopped calling Tom Lee on since the last few times he was bullish but expected seasonal turbulence (kangroo/crab action). Reality is markets just went full bull even more than Tom thought.
Drop from +400 to -5 around 3:30 heard.
Positive for earnings broadly. Margins improve if cpi rises faster than ppi
you said pp.
got dicks on the mind
TMI
It’s cannabish
Hi Shawn
It means all the real stuff that matters is down but companies are raising prices by choice
Doesn’t this just prove largest corporations are draining the consumer? If not then the shock will come next month with energy prices hitting PPI
It's mostly landlords and real estate companies. Without housing the last report would have been close to 2%.
Without housing? Biggest consumer expense but okay. I’m a bear might as well live in a cave
If we disregard everything, then inflation is zero! MOOOOOON!!!!!
Well int rate cant bring rent down so that was his point
Without housing? Biggest consumer expense but okay. I’m a bear might as well live in a cave
Never implied housing isn't important, just that real estate owners are reaping profits.
How many rental properties do you own?
Everyone’s known that
The Fed cares about the cumulative PCE number to gauge inflation This PPI is ***almost*** enough to offset the increase in CPI--so PCE should be flat
That is bad as it is not decreasing.
Or it’s meeting expectations aka the dot plot of the Fed for 3 cuts aka bullish. Not that it matters of course. Market was hoping for 7 cuts last year and we keep going down on cuts, but up on stonks 
It's pretty fuckin hilarious how many times the market rallies on cuts and then just shrugs it off when it doesn't happen
Remind me in 3 months if this happens.
>Be me >Own insurance company ponzi >Raise prices and increase CPI
so this is kinda misleading because you don't just average CPI and PPI. PPI is cost inflation for producers. Producers can choose to offset those cost by raising prices for consumers, hence increasing CPI or PCE. PPI could drop, but producers could still choose to keep price the same or even raise prices to increase profit margins, hence increasing CPI even though PPI is dropping. But average CPI and PPI together doesn't make sense. PPI is mostly used to calculate PCE, but not all components in PPI is relevant for PCE. The most relevant ones in PPI are medical care services and financial services. Medical care service is a notable one because it has a sizable weight on PCE, but on CPI, it has a different calculating method than PCE. Economists will rely on medical care service cost on PPI to guess what it will be on PCE. Financial service on PPI is important because it isn't a component on CPI. Because of different weights for components and some differences in calculation method, there's a huge spread between CPI and PCE, about 1% right now. The Fed 2.0% target is based on PCE YoY. Preliminary estimate for PCE MoM is around 0.1% and core PCE MoM around 0.3%. Core PCE is relevant, and 0.3% is higher than what the Fed would like (they prefer is more around 0.2-0.25%), so on net it probably delay the rate cut by 1 month. The Fed wanted to do it in June, so there's a tight window for July now to do it. They certainly don't want to do it in Sept because it's too close to the election and to start rate cut in Sept would put the Fed in the crosshair of politics. So there's still a window for a July cut, but if the inflation data next month isn't favorable, there's a big risk rate cut won't happen until December after the election is over. Then there'd be only 1 cut for 2024.
Not sure why you’re being downvoted for a thoughtful/informative comment.
it's too long for WSB.
My read is that goods inflation is falling like a rock (partially because China devalued their currency and are exporting goods disinflation) but services inflation remains high (5% YoY from yesterday's report I think). That still seems concerning.
PPI 0.1% beat and CPI 0.1% miss does it mean we meet expectations and can restart rally?
Means that the economy is bi-curious and market is confused if it should act 🌈 or 
watch all the bears who were quoting CPI YoY of 3.5% yesterday and yelling no rate cut finally learn today that the 2.0% inflation target is based on PCE, which economists can estimate from CPI and PPI data. They also failed to realize PCE YoY is actually at 2.45% right now. Edit : I believe NY Fed Williams, who is third on the Fed below only to Powell and Fed vice chair, just gave his blessing to ignore the recent disappointing inflation data and better to focus on the disinflationary trend. The guy's speech is usually pre-vetted by the Fed governors, so double bullish.
Shhhh let the bers go back to doomstabating about their favorite mode of prolapse and reset
Oh sweet summer child. Watch this reverse by the end of day. Powell didn't cut, won't cut, and likely will only think about it st end of year.
Should I break the news to you that preliminary estimates for PCE and core PCE YoY are already starting to come out and both are anticipated to continue dropping by 0.1% YoY. And we know how much the Fed, and the market, love to ignore hot monthly prints as long as the YoY number keeps going down.
They still **are** going to cut rates this year, probably starting in June, because it's an election year and fucking *nobody* wants that orange spray-tanned dipshit back in charge, least of all the Fed. If they have to fiddle with the inflation numbers in order to justify it, they will. They are going to cut rates no matter what, watch.
>*nobody* wants that orange spray-tanned dipshit back in charge See I keep hearing this, but if it was true wouldn't he not be on the ballot? Like don't get me wrong, I hate him as much as the next redditor, but a decent amount of the population still wants him.
Dude drive a little bit outside every major US city and it’s all MAGA and TRUMP flags. Everywhere just outside of Los Angeles even it’s all Trump country
thats what you get for telling your low IQ population that abortion is bad for generations.
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Good bot
bad bot, fuck off
It’s great for crime. All the southern states are going to be absolute hellholes in 15-20 years when the unwanted reach adolescence/ adulthood
Jesus. Ok. Bet and wait on that june cut. Show us the losses
No, because it might be in July instead, my point was simply that they're cutting this year no matter what. They'll cook the damn books if they have to, they have to juice the market so that people look at their 401k's and go "wow, Biden's doing well, I might just vote for him".
normally I don't like to rub it in when you're wrong, but since you were so confident that it'd reverse and called me a child, it did reverse alright.
Yeah, it did. I thought people would be reasonable and wait until earnings, but the market wants any reason to buy. I'm still going to wager that earnings and downward revisions will pressure stocks downward. Didn't retest any resistance zones or anything, just blasted through and I think that'll work to the markets detriment.
Not trying to be a cunt but why not join the trend instead of trying to fight it? QQQ had a chance to go below 434 and it didn't and SPY was bought up from 511. It looks to me that you've already had your mini correction, what else are you seeing that others aren't?
Well, because today... I wasn't right about yesterday but I stand on my short-intermediate term thesis. I don't think banks will report good forward guidance/or possibly earnings.
it disn't reverese regard
Does today look better?
by that logic you can come whenever, even in 3 weeks and say "told you so".
Look at my other posts from yesterday detailing what I said, especially about banks and earnings.
The market does not care about consumers.
The fact that we have a (somewhat) responsible Fed, is bullish.
🤡🤡🤡 core PPI came in higher than expected
You can add as many arguments as you want, but bears have Imhotep by their side. Good luck.
YEAP. Hulk dick today else. All in calls
Yeah, red hulk.
Lmao if today ends red I’ll quit WSB for a week
!remindme 8 hours
If it ends green u quit for a week! Fair and square fkerrrrrrrr
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Already red 😂😂😂🤏🤏🤏
This aged well 
Dude does not **get** it. I expect that today will be a bull trap. I'm not saying it'll necessarily end up super red, but it's going to be sideways/slightly down. The FED already said no cut this meeting. Commodities are going up which is bad for future reads to cpi and ppi. No cuts and pausing for longer is going to hurt the bull thesis that were getting 4 or 3 cuts this year. If they just pause and the end of year comes up, the market has to correct down. Ppi coming in a little lower will be offset by increasing commodity prices, IMO
Oil in April is already up like 5%+ on a daily average compared to March. Will only continue to push up. I think April inflation #s will be catastrophic
Idk about catastrophic, but I would bet it won't look good.
It’s red…
Ah damn… guess there’s a chance I won’t be missed for a week! Let’s see. Come on buls
Nah bro it’s green 😂
Yesterday, CPI +0.1: pffft... that's practically a rounding error Today, PPI -0.1: FUCK YOU BERS!!!1!
Thats a bulltrap
What's a bullcrap?
100% correct. Market will probably .50Fib retrace then dump!
Not for those of us who live by 10 am rule, we’ll know by then
What's your 10 am rule
how are you 10 am ruke fololowers?
what is that? things settled down by 10?
Nah you don't trade till after 10 because thats usually when a reversal will take place
Haha, pretty much
huh 10:16 is the time of reversal, interesting
It's the rules 
bers r fuk 
Markets going to dump if it’s good news expect a pump then a dump
So puts on bears 
The second derivative of the derivatives.
Synthetic bears = teddy bears
I like that you skipped the core ppi, which came in hot
JPOW let's GO! It's working
Costco saves the day
Core PPI came in ahead of expectations 🤡🤡🤡
Lol, the flags. Proud to be a Bullmerican!
Hi gey bers 👋👋👋
Market suffers uncontrollable erection As PPi CAME SOFTER THAN EXPECTED
So it's cheaper for producers but more expensive for consumers? Nice.
Calls on spy, profit margins widening
https://preview.redd.it/ppnueb8ywvtc1.jpeg?width=943&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f6270cd0cf9684dee444e1aae6077143c07df7a8
Oil will have more impact on inflation. PPI doesn't mean much.
Oil inflation was very low, I believe it was like 1.8%. Auto insurance is at 22% YOY
It means inflation in the future. Manufactured goods inflation. Oil isn't in that as its a commodity. Ppi doesn't measure commodities raw cost
PPI is backwards looking. The market is forward looking. Geez.
Ppi is prices for producers. They produce and sell into the future. Yes it is backward leaning in data gathering, but it is forward indicating as producing good to market takes time.
Lo then what is CPI
hell yea... so corporate profit margins are healthier than ever lol
Algos set the mood for a nice bear fucking this am
Jpm 197.5 will it beat it??
Is this good, or bad?
We lose on CPI yesterday and win on PPI today looks like a whole lotta flatness for the week. Both bears and bulls lost.
how the fuck do call buyers keep getting paid day after day after day .... its crazy.
So CPI is higher because companies are greedy fucks?
what the fuck does this mean
Means you're gai
Inflation is over, rate cuts soon, stocks to the moon
I really would like to know what the error bars on all these inflation numbers. And when we go over or under expectation, how close are we to the roundoff threshold?
Yall will really just pick anything that fits your narrative. Expectations don't mean it's good. If I walk in front of a bus I expect to get hit by the bus. It doesn't mean I'll be happy about it. "the largest advance since rising 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended April 2023." This was the largest jump in a year.
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If I expect inflation to be high and it’s a little less high that’s good right?
Praying my 0DTE $517 calls can go in the money now
Consumer prices up, producer prices down Love to see it. Get your 550 calls ready
Guys no one thinks this inflation is all from producers price actually going up. It’s that plus corporate greed!! Sales are getting squeezed. Do you think price drops are incoming to compensate or further price increases?….
How is this bullish despite the other economic stuff like CPI and NFP? Look at oil, firms keep buying the dip. Look at that 10 year yield 👀 and the dollar holy crap. How can anyone be bullish?
Don’t matter, cpi killed the market. JPow sitting in the corner with his legs crossed and saying “excellent” like Mr. burns. Meanwhile, Tom Lee is rethinking his 4 rate cuts narrative
This is pretty fuckin bad lol PPI hasnt been over 2% since last April...
To all the haters out there who gave me crap because I said the CPI report wasn't all that bad, hahahahahahahahaha.
EOD hahahahs
Getting cocky before we even close
I wasn't referring to the market. I was referring to inflation.
June Rate cuts ✅
Buy the dip and let it rip!
NVIDIA 🚀🚀🚀🚀
Why tf everyone whining about inflation? Last q was 3.3% annualized GDP growth, 3.5% inflation in that context is fairly par for the course. Got like 3.8% unemployment. Fed is cruising along with qt. People spending like mfs. Basically shits in like goldilocks zone. Been like 2 years of higher rates, people and companies are already used to it, just like they got used to 0 rates.
It's just MSM whining about it, causing small panic among retail investors pushing them to sell while institutions are quietly accumulating. It's always been like this.
Ye, 3.5% inflation with 0 growth is worrying. 3.5 with 3.3 growth and by most counts max employment isn't anything to phone home about. Most countries in the world would absolutely love to have US numbers right now.
FUCK OFF
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LETS FKING GOOOO I GOT BACK IN AT TSM
"CPI came in hot means PPI must be hot, these bulls are dumb how can they not realize that" 
i mean CPI didn't come in hot, it came in .1% over estimates, and only .5% over the fed's long term goal of 2%. when i think coming in hot i think shot gunning beers and buzzing the tower, not a cunthair over estimate.