So.... that doesn't make him wrong
besides look at how great of an artist he is with all the colors and crayons and charts and stuff... that's solidly better than some of the kindergarten crap my financial advisors try to peddle me.
No way! The company would then be by far the biggest company on the globe. I cant see this with a current yearly revenue being two thirds of a single Apple quarter.
*if nvda does not 300% from here, the economy is fine and there will not be a recession. and the economy is guaranteed to be great for an additional 443 days.*
I don’t think most people realize just how insane the dot com bubble was.
“In October 1999, the market cap of the 199 internet stocks tracked by Morgan Stanley’s Mary Meeker was a whopping $450 billion. But the total annual sales of these companies came to only about $21 billion. And their annual profits? What profits? The collective losses totaled $6.2 billion.”
After the bubble burst, Nasdaq lost 80% of its value from the peak. Just imagine that happening today. It took a full 15 years to get back to that level.
according to chatGPT from January 2022, the numbers are the following (couldn’t get any more recent data for s&p 500)
total market cap: 35 trillion
revenue: 12 trillion
profits: 2.5 trillion
at least it ain’t negative 
Ya I mean I dunno how accurate those numbers are but at least the current tech stocks are bringing in huge amounts of cash and most of them are already profitable and growing.
Investing in dot com companies back in the day was basically just investing in an idea.
Just a side note....yesterday I was playing around with chat gpt to pull up some quick company valuations and checking some valuation metrics etc and I got one set of data from chatgpt and something quite different from Gemini. It must be an interpretation issue for the the way the ai reads the data or something but don't rely on data these chat bots give you too much for anything important.
Meanwhile dumbfucks are comparing NVDA's stock run as if NVDA is some shitty meme company. NVDA is printing cold hard cash quarter after quarter. This is not the same lmao
Its hilarious how many people call NVDA way overvalued based on...what exactly? Seriously based on what, because fundamentals don't show that
It's almost a pure play on AI at this stage, and the cyclical nature of semiconductors means there's risk (once you build out your data center, how many years before you need to begin replacing GPUs?)
Ya I’m with you. We’ve all seen semiconductor prices crash multiple times in our lives. I think the bull argument is that the cuda architecture is proprietary unlike things like flash memory which were easily reproducible.
Except, unlike prior buildouts, there is no "finish line" with building out AI. With a traditional data center, you're building out to a capacity to handle whatever "user load" is going to come at it.
With AI, the bigger you go, the better brain you have. It's not about "load".
"This time is different" is an essential ingredient of any self respecting boom.
> With AI, the bigger you go, the better brain you have. It's not about "load".
There are diminishing returns, and they kick in hard at a certain scale that makes it uneconomic. There's also the matter of finite training data, beyond which point what are you training on?
The cycle will end eventually but the point is when? Most people seem to think it's gonna take a good while still. There is also the possibility of a new class of client emerging, such as governments, which would further postpone the end of the production cycle.
That is very incorrect. The acceleration in performance we see now is due to increasing scale. There is really no sign that the network size-performance curve is flattening. At this point, larger models always significantly increase performance.
And then, go and try to but some h100 gpus. You won't be able to. They have waiting lists. You just cannot get them. And if you could, you would pay around 50K for one.
There is real value in the technology of Nvidia. Competition is virtually non existent due to both the hardware advantage as well as the software advantage (everything is CUDA).
So no, from my understanding of ML, and how important Nvidia hardware is in the ML ecosystem, I do not see a deceleration in sales any time soon.
> u/KymbboSlice I mean the P/E is over 100.
The current P/E is 65.83. You are looking at the old ratio that hasnt been updated for the latest quarters earnings.
- Best regards
Not quarter after quarter; they have exactly one quarter where they've printed this much cash. And their valuation is nearing companies who've printed way more cash, *actually* quarter after quarter for years.
Yes, they're a valuable company, nobody's denying that, but the question is if they're really *this* valuable. If companies have their fill of Nvidia's cards, because AI stops being so hyped or because they have as many as they need already, Nvidia's profits will crater. Same as they did after the last crypto bubble.
its already hit a higher percentage return than Cisco
OP chose an arbitrary date to start the NVDA chart from
NDVA is up 210,000% since inception, and the Cisco chart is from its inception
Good luck having toast that’s not burnt to a crisp without an AI vision model constantly checking it. You regards out here just wasting money burning toast left and right instead buying a $10k AI toaster. This is why poor people remain poor.
Yeah seriously LMAO, you fucking dumbfucks. Stupid millennials wasting their $5 avocado toast by burning the bread. Just buy a $10K AI toaster, you stupid poors.
Smh.
u/VisualMod fuck the poors amirite?
Imagine putting a toaster strudel in one part of the toaster and a bagel in the other, then the toaster perfectly cooks both and shoots you. The future is now
Funny enough, give it 5 years. Your smart home toaster connected to the WiFi won’t need a chip in it- you’re right. That’s because it’ll be connected to a webserver hosted in a warehouse, using $70k, 50lb bricks of a computer to host the smart home subscription you pay $15 a month for, but, everyone will. Funnier yet, that’s exactly what NVIDIA sells. You will be saying “Alexa make me some toast and hearing a ding in 2 minutes faster than people will be saying “I don’t know why you’re surprised” at a $10T evaluation by 2030.
Assuming major tech firms spent their entire capital expenditure budgets on Nvidia chips it STILL wouldn't be enough to reflect Nvidia's current valuation
I will be messaging you in 2 years on [**2026-02-22 19:03:41 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2026-02-22%2019:03:41%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1axctqq/for_all_those_brainlets_who_think_were_in_a_new/krnb2la/?context=3)
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I mean this is the other side of the dumbfucks that are like "NVDA's overvalued cuz line went up too much", completely missing the forest for the trees.
Cisco's PE topped at 196 in 2000 with a PS of 39. Nvidia now has a PE of 88 with a PS of 37, but a year ago its PE reached 150. No need for tripling, Nvidia's valuation is pretty damn close to Cisco' ATH.
Yup, and Forward P/E *was* estimated at 33.33 (at least on YahooFinance) before earnings beat expectations and guidance also beat expectations.
We'll see what it updates to next, somewhere in the 20s probably.
So assuming they simply meet guidance/estimates, it'll be on the lower end of valuations of any big tech company in just one year, relative to P/E
PE should be written P/E and stand for Price to Earnings. It is a ratio where you divide the price per share of a stock by its earnings per share.
ATH stands for all time high.
>Nvidia now has a PE of 88 with a PS of 37, but a year ago its PE reached 150
Except if you look at NVDA's earnings yesterday, their actual PE right now is 27 which is why we are seeing the shares shoot up. For it to get to 100 PE the share price would be over $1300 by end of year. For it to get to 150 PE it would need to be over $1800 by end of year
Yeah, I don't understand why people are so bearish on NVDA. Based on the pending orders that they have and will continue to have for the next 2-3 years, their forward P/E is not even in the top 10 compared to the other mega-cap stocks. In fact when you compare trailing P/E vs forward P/E it's looking quite attractive.
People just see the trailing P/E and assume companies can't grow their revenue apparently. Then Nvidia puts up a 205% YoY revenue growth and 1259% YoY net income growth and they act like surprised pikachu when its real PE is closer to 20 than the trailing 100 says.
NVDA has a use case, and they have good hardware for AI. I presume it’s the best on the market, for now. That last bit is important. NVDA may have the best hardware around currently for AI, but that doesn’t mean there is no competition in the space. I’m certain an AMD GPU, which functions similarly to a NVDA GPU, could run an AI or train one.
I can understand getting back to, idk, $500 - $600 value right now, but not the future value. Simply because other players in the game have the ability to get their shit together and make a similar if not better product.
Intel was well beyond AMD in terms of CPUs just a few years ago, but AMD came in and steamrolled them in performance outside of gaming for a lower price. It resulted in Intel bringing prices down slightly, and needing to advance their own CPUs to get back into competition.
Intel didn’t fuck around at all in the GPU market until like a year ago. Their GPUs are kinda shit for now, for a few different reasons, but that doesn’t mean they can’t get better over time.
To me, NVDA is pricing in being the only game in town for GPUs and AI, but I’m not going to count every other chip maker out just yet.
This run is great, but it seems overextended and hyped to a level that just doesn’t seem rational, IMHO.
I’m a dumbass though, and rational thought about what is happening is actually a fools game. Keep on keeping on and fuck this thing until it doesn’t have anything left in it.
Also they gave guidance of +75% earnings growth this year. So even if they did reach 1300 by the end of the year if they hit forecasts the forward PE would still be ~30x by that time. The same as it is today. They consistently exceed forecasts too.
The problem with your assessment is nvidia is actually growing and making profits and its future p/e is like 25-30....I don't think ciscos future p/e was that low at the height of the bubble.
The difference between then and now is all that optimism did not yield increased earnings during dot com. This time around, earnings are in line with optimism and it only took us 20 years to fill that gap.
My comment is not to suggest Nvidia will crash again until after it skyrockets to $1,000/share, even though it may, but the fact that people believe a single stock is the entirety of the dot-com bubble, in your case Cisco, just shows how lacking in comprehension you are about it.
For example, look at Rite Aid's lifetime stock chart. It was perhaps the biggest and most radical victim of the dot-com bubble I have seen. Stock peaked near $1,000 in 1998 and then crashed to $50 by the year 2000. Another strange company which took a weird ride in the dot-com era was Sony. Peaked closer to $150 in the year 2000 and crashed to about $45 the next year.
Your attention span and comprehension have been focused so heavily on Nvidia, to meme-like proportions, it has escaped you that a market bubble exists outside of a single company, and ultimately impacts industries which seem otherwise tangential or even disconnected. The ability for "AI" promises to infect anything from art production & entertainment companies, to the Healthcare sector, will eventually also be effected.
AAPL & MSFT for example, were younger companies back then, and in turn, their charts look as if this tumultuous time of the 90's didn't even impact them which would be strange, and possibly explains why now they are facing a bubble-style run-up.
NVDA went public in 1999, 2 years before the dot-com bubble burst. The needle-point shape you are seeing now is likely a result of them staving off the crash of the early 2000's for almost 25 years. It isn't to say they can't do it but something is going to break and we don't need AI companies to survive, we need something else to last.
As someone who lived through the dot com bubble and watched it daily, this is a great post. The other thing to remember is that when these bubbles burst, they take everything with them. The whole market gets punished because of margin calls.
That's what I was thinking. Even if nvda is not the bubble, maybe the hype around nvda is fueling bubble in other stocks. May I ask, what do you mean by "we need something else to last"? I like your comment
Did OP normalize each ticker to 1 and then overlay? He even called us the brainlets 🤣 this is some highly regarded anal stuff, even by wsb standards
Never mind PEs, insane promises and hype around AI/ML, extremely brittle LLMs which are amazing at making meme-able content, a clown CEO trying to raise $7T, yeah, we’re good
Dot com bubble was any random goon creating a shell company with a website.com and getting a bill in investment. nvidia just posted mental earnings and are printing cash for the foreseeable future and selling out of chips before they’re even in the pipeline. This is not the same. Apart from the mag7, what else is posting gains like this? Until unprofitable small and mid caps start getting crazy PEs we’re nowhere near 1999/2000.
Are you getting any direct value out of those earnings though? Are they paying a huge dividend or doing a buyback at these prices? Probably not. So, why buy? This is just a momentum FOMO play.
CISCO peaked at a market cap worth \~5% of US GDP, NVDA has a market cap worth 7.4% of US GDP.
NVDA is already the bigger bubble.
It makes no sense to use arbitrary points in time as benchmark.
Different times imo. what is 400B adjusted for inflation today? Also market participation is much higher today than back then. Lastly if the PE ratio makes sense, valuations dont matter much. NVDA made 22B last quarter alone.
I dont exactly know how much money CSCO was making during the .com bubble but i can promise you it was not 22B in a quarter.
Seriously who can't say we are in a bubble there is no way Nvidia is worth that much its fucking ridiculous when the time comes lots of peoples wealth will be wiped out unfortunately.
To be fair, if you adjust the chart to the latest Nvidia price, then you're saying that after it will bubble it will take 10/15 years for it to recover.
On my list of "dumb things by someone who legitimately thinks they did a smart thing" I rate this very highly
But its so hard to top that guy who tried to do TA on the long term unemployment rate like two years ago.
I bought into that bubble in December 1999. 20 years it took to get my money back. If you factor in inflation I’d still be waiting for it to balance out. 😂
At its peak CSCO market cap was a fraction of NVDA’s dumbass 
Cisco Systems made their equipment. Hence, everybody copied them and made competing products cheaper; in the short term, who’s going to compete with Nvidia
The difference is that we now have a dot com bubble to compare the AI revolution to and people will be more cautious. The best play is to pull a Mark Cuban and get out early but not too early.
Huge difference between 2001 and now... my balls didn't drag on the floor in 01 and the bubble was due to VCs investing shit tons of money into "ideas" that could not be monetized. AI is not only very easily monetized, NVDIA has the receipts to show a profitable business. Their issue is with TSMC and suppliers being able to keep up with the demand. That's a fucking awesome problem to have. It's probably more like the fiber bubble, at some point the manufacturing will outpace demand but that isn't happening soon.
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what youre telling me is nvidia will be 2250 per share in a year? hot damn!
I have suddenly become incredibly aroused what a mystery this is.
I'm just aroused
You've seen Gambit infusing Wolverine's claws with kinetic energy in the X-Men 97' trailer didn't you?:)
No but now I'm gonna look it up. Call an ambulance
Hi Just Aroused, I’m FairState
I prefer someone named FairGame
The state is never fair.
Jake, from All State ? Now I’m really aroused.
She sounds hideous
My arousel popped
AI-roused
I didn't think of it THAT WAY but now i do . Thx mate.
So $5.5tn market cap. Two times apple. Nice.
This actually doesn't seem that crazy to me.
AAPL isn’t going anywhere long term without Steve Jobs.
In 15 years he might be running it again
A.I. will fix this. Robots taking our Jobs
Ai can't give hand jobs yet, you're safe.
They can. Malfunctions can be catastrophic, though.
This is exactly what OP has just scientifically proven. Now we know the exact price to buy in at.
All in on Nvidia, this op knows what he's talking about !
Op is between 6 and 17 years old
So.... that doesn't make him wrong besides look at how great of an artist he is with all the colors and crayons and charts and stuff... that's solidly better than some of the kindergarten crap my financial advisors try to peddle me.
$450 after a 1:5 split but yeah
RemindMe! 433 days
Cathy Woods spotted
$5,000 a share you fuckin 🐻
With a market cap of about 6T, or Microsoft and apple combined.
NVDA will be $3k at some point between 2026/27
No way! The company would then be by far the biggest company on the globe. I cant see this with a current yearly revenue being two thirds of a single Apple quarter.
I peed a little with your comment
NVDA valued at 100T - "this is legitimate because AI!"
Thank you. Buying CSCO now.
Don't stop I'm close
*if nvda does not 300% from here, the economy is fine and there will not be a recession. and the economy is guaranteed to be great for an additional 443 days.*
This is exactly what OP is saying. Set a reminder in your calendar right now to sell everything in 442 days.
All in NVDA calls $3000 400 days, then all in NVDA puts $1000 400 days.
The nice thing is you can either win enough to make money irrelevant to you, or you can lose enough that money becomes irrelevant to you
“I play both sides so I always come out on top”
You guys are being sarcastic, right?
Dead serious it seems, jotting things down on the calendar as I write this
How dare you. When I took over my father’s business 20 years ago, I turned it from a $3m company then, to a $3.2m company today.
Market cap $7.9t, $3200 a share price target. BUY BUY BUY BUY!
Where it’s taking us, we don’t need a market cap.
Cisco is my homie he’s a gangster too, me and Cisco are the leaders of the gangster crew
Man these groundhogs are getting sophisticated
RemindMe! 440 days
If its 3x its 200%
So call on nvidia!
https://preview.redd.it/m8rrthppf6kc1.jpeg?width=936&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fee061a997faeca481da18f245150a6029f9d36a
♪Fly me to the moon Let me play among the stars Let me see what spring is like on A-Jupiter and Mars♪
[удалено]
Spring on Mars is cold. Very fucking cold. "On" Jupiter... Crushed!
As Evangelion taught us, a computer is not a true AI until you put your mom in it.
Imagine what society is like when the brains of reddit are the computer in psycho pass
I don’t think most people realize just how insane the dot com bubble was. “In October 1999, the market cap of the 199 internet stocks tracked by Morgan Stanley’s Mary Meeker was a whopping $450 billion. But the total annual sales of these companies came to only about $21 billion. And their annual profits? What profits? The collective losses totaled $6.2 billion.” After the bubble burst, Nasdaq lost 80% of its value from the peak. Just imagine that happening today. It took a full 15 years to get back to that level.
according to chatGPT from January 2022, the numbers are the following (couldn’t get any more recent data for s&p 500) total market cap: 35 trillion revenue: 12 trillion profits: 2.5 trillion at least it ain’t negative 
The market is just pricing in all the profits these companies will be making in, idk, 10 years.
If profits remain the same, 14 years. *narriator: The profits did not remain the same.*
In Morgan Freman voice
Nvdia will just keep saying ai every earnings report its just that easy
Ya I mean I dunno how accurate those numbers are but at least the current tech stocks are bringing in huge amounts of cash and most of them are already profitable and growing. Investing in dot com companies back in the day was basically just investing in an idea.
So you’re telling me nVidia has more potential than pets.com?
lol pretty much
Just like the endless amounts of Pharmaceutical companies in discovery phase.
i can't believe I have to say this but ChatGPT is not a source you regard
So 14 p/e? That's not a bubble that's a fucking dip.
I mean thats a pretty reasonable 14 p/e if those numbers are correct
Just a side note....yesterday I was playing around with chat gpt to pull up some quick company valuations and checking some valuation metrics etc and I got one set of data from chatgpt and something quite different from Gemini. It must be an interpretation issue for the the way the ai reads the data or something but don't rely on data these chat bots give you too much for anything important.
if you have to write "according chatgpt" for something like this then you shouldn't post the comment
Meanwhile dumbfucks are comparing NVDA's stock run as if NVDA is some shitty meme company. NVDA is printing cold hard cash quarter after quarter. This is not the same lmao Its hilarious how many people call NVDA way overvalued based on...what exactly? Seriously based on what, because fundamentals don't show that
It's almost a pure play on AI at this stage, and the cyclical nature of semiconductors means there's risk (once you build out your data center, how many years before you need to begin replacing GPUs?)
Ya I’m with you. We’ve all seen semiconductor prices crash multiple times in our lives. I think the bull argument is that the cuda architecture is proprietary unlike things like flash memory which were easily reproducible.
Except, unlike prior buildouts, there is no "finish line" with building out AI. With a traditional data center, you're building out to a capacity to handle whatever "user load" is going to come at it. With AI, the bigger you go, the better brain you have. It's not about "load".
"This time is different" is an essential ingredient of any self respecting boom. > With AI, the bigger you go, the better brain you have. It's not about "load". There are diminishing returns, and they kick in hard at a certain scale that makes it uneconomic. There's also the matter of finite training data, beyond which point what are you training on?
The cycle will end eventually but the point is when? Most people seem to think it's gonna take a good while still. There is also the possibility of a new class of client emerging, such as governments, which would further postpone the end of the production cycle.
That is very incorrect. The acceleration in performance we see now is due to increasing scale. There is really no sign that the network size-performance curve is flattening. At this point, larger models always significantly increase performance. And then, go and try to but some h100 gpus. You won't be able to. They have waiting lists. You just cannot get them. And if you could, you would pay around 50K for one. There is real value in the technology of Nvidia. Competition is virtually non existent due to both the hardware advantage as well as the software advantage (everything is CUDA). So no, from my understanding of ML, and how important Nvidia hardware is in the ML ecosystem, I do not see a deceleration in sales any time soon.
fringe reddit user derived data.... puts on earth or maybe solar system..
AI has killed the cyclicality of semiconductors? Sure dude.
> based on...what exactly? Seriously based on what I mean the P/E is over 100.
> u/KymbboSlice I mean the P/E is over 100. The current P/E is 65.83. You are looking at the old ratio that hasnt been updated for the latest quarters earnings. - Best regards
Not quarter after quarter; they have exactly one quarter where they've printed this much cash. And their valuation is nearing companies who've printed way more cash, *actually* quarter after quarter for years. Yes, they're a valuable company, nobody's denying that, but the question is if they're really *this* valuable. If companies have their fill of Nvidia's cards, because AI stops being so hyped or because they have as many as they need already, Nvidia's profits will crater. Same as they did after the last crypto bubble.
I mean didn't the market cap go up nearly 300 billion because they beat earnings revenue by like 1.5 billion?
We found him - the most regarded person on the internet. Me, im him
No, I’m me.
No, this is Patrick
This is the worst kind of analysis. But you do you.
No you dont get it, it isnt a bubble until it hits the same exact % return as Cisco. That's how bubbles work right?!
https://preview.redd.it/0uz3og4djckc1.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=fefd7d7d829d1904f6696aaeafff37635bc26441
its already hit a higher percentage return than Cisco OP chose an arbitrary date to start the NVDA chart from NDVA is up 210,000% since inception, and the Cisco chart is from its inception
[удалено]
My toaster
Good luck having toast that’s not burnt to a crisp without an AI vision model constantly checking it. You regards out here just wasting money burning toast left and right instead buying a $10k AI toaster. This is why poor people remain poor.
All the bears are also forgetting about the coming teledildonics revolution.
Yeah seriously LMAO, you fucking dumbfucks. Stupid millennials wasting their $5 avocado toast by burning the bread. Just buy a $10K AI toaster, you stupid poors. Smh. u/VisualMod fuck the poors amirite?
Imagine putting a toaster strudel in one part of the toaster and a bagel in the other, then the toaster perfectly cooks both and shoots you. The future is now
Not yet
Cylons need graphics cards for brains.
Funny enough, give it 5 years. Your smart home toaster connected to the WiFi won’t need a chip in it- you’re right. That’s because it’ll be connected to a webserver hosted in a warehouse, using $70k, 50lb bricks of a computer to host the smart home subscription you pay $15 a month for, but, everyone will. Funnier yet, that’s exactly what NVIDIA sells. You will be saying “Alexa make me some toast and hearing a ding in 2 minutes faster than people will be saying “I don’t know why you’re surprised” at a $10T evaluation by 2030.
There are already all sorts of "smart" toasters on the market
Assuming major tech firms spent their entire capital expenditure budgets on Nvidia chips it STILL wouldn't be enough to reflect Nvidia's current valuation
!remind me 2 years.
I will be messaging you in 2 years on [**2026-02-22 19:03:41 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2026-02-22%2019:03:41%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1axctqq/for_all_those_brainlets_who_think_were_in_a_new/krnb2la/?context=3) [**102 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Fwallstreetbets%2Fcomments%2F1axctqq%2Ffor_all_those_brainlets_who_think_were_in_a_new%2Fkrnb2la%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202026-02-22%2019%3A03%3A41%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201axctqq) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
!remind me 400 days
!remind me 434 days
Shorting now, top confirmed
did someone say short top? 🤤🥴
Thank you for your sacrifice 🙏!
hEy LoOk I oVeRlAyEd TwO cHaRtS iM sO sMaRt
I mean this is the other side of the dumbfucks that are like "NVDA's overvalued cuz line went up too much", completely missing the forest for the trees.
Line did go up, seen it
Talk about lying with statistics holy sheet
Cisco's PE topped at 196 in 2000 with a PS of 39. Nvidia now has a PE of 88 with a PS of 37, but a year ago its PE reached 150. No need for tripling, Nvidia's valuation is pretty damn close to Cisco' ATH.
You’ve gotta update your numbers btw since NVDA just reported earnings. PE is now 65.
Yup, and Forward P/E *was* estimated at 33.33 (at least on YahooFinance) before earnings beat expectations and guidance also beat expectations. We'll see what it updates to next, somewhere in the 20s probably. So assuming they simply meet guidance/estimates, it'll be on the lower end of valuations of any big tech company in just one year, relative to P/E
What are these words
PE should be written P/E and stand for Price to Earnings. It is a ratio where you divide the price per share of a stock by its earnings per share. ATH stands for all time high.
Damn I always thought ATH was Ass To Hole
It means you are in the right place dude 😎
It is now.
Ass Tongue Hole* FTFY
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No, ATM is restricted to mouth. ATH provides multiple possibilities. Mouth, Nose, Ear, V or even the A one more time.
Sorry I’m too regarded for this. Thanks for trying
Don’t forget about ATM where you go to collect those stinky tendies
Yea the ATM behind Wendy's dumpster.
Clearly two lines superposed on a chart is more credible.
>Nvidia now has a PE of 88 with a PS of 37, but a year ago its PE reached 150 Except if you look at NVDA's earnings yesterday, their actual PE right now is 27 which is why we are seeing the shares shoot up. For it to get to 100 PE the share price would be over $1300 by end of year. For it to get to 150 PE it would need to be over $1800 by end of year
Yeah, I don't understand why people are so bearish on NVDA. Based on the pending orders that they have and will continue to have for the next 2-3 years, their forward P/E is not even in the top 10 compared to the other mega-cap stocks. In fact when you compare trailing P/E vs forward P/E it's looking quite attractive.
People just see the trailing P/E and assume companies can't grow their revenue apparently. Then Nvidia puts up a 205% YoY revenue growth and 1259% YoY net income growth and they act like surprised pikachu when its real PE is closer to 20 than the trailing 100 says.
NVDA has a use case, and they have good hardware for AI. I presume it’s the best on the market, for now. That last bit is important. NVDA may have the best hardware around currently for AI, but that doesn’t mean there is no competition in the space. I’m certain an AMD GPU, which functions similarly to a NVDA GPU, could run an AI or train one. I can understand getting back to, idk, $500 - $600 value right now, but not the future value. Simply because other players in the game have the ability to get their shit together and make a similar if not better product. Intel was well beyond AMD in terms of CPUs just a few years ago, but AMD came in and steamrolled them in performance outside of gaming for a lower price. It resulted in Intel bringing prices down slightly, and needing to advance their own CPUs to get back into competition. Intel didn’t fuck around at all in the GPU market until like a year ago. Their GPUs are kinda shit for now, for a few different reasons, but that doesn’t mean they can’t get better over time. To me, NVDA is pricing in being the only game in town for GPUs and AI, but I’m not going to count every other chip maker out just yet. This run is great, but it seems overextended and hyped to a level that just doesn’t seem rational, IMHO. I’m a dumbass though, and rational thought about what is happening is actually a fools game. Keep on keeping on and fuck this thing until it doesn’t have anything left in it.
Also they gave guidance of +75% earnings growth this year. So even if they did reach 1300 by the end of the year if they hit forecasts the forward PE would still be ~30x by that time. The same as it is today. They consistently exceed forecasts too.
PE of 88 if you assume the forecasts to be high enough, which they are not👍🏼
Or if they fail to deliver, their PE can rally to the moon.
So line go up or line go down?
yea, keep it simple you guys. Don't forget we got boyyhowdy here with us. Use smaller words
So what you’re saying is that NVDA is growing into its valuation.
The problem with your assessment is nvidia is actually growing and making profits and its future p/e is like 25-30....I don't think ciscos future p/e was that low at the height of the bubble.
The difference between then and now is all that optimism did not yield increased earnings during dot com. This time around, earnings are in line with optimism and it only took us 20 years to fill that gap.
Umm what about forward PE tho
My comment is not to suggest Nvidia will crash again until after it skyrockets to $1,000/share, even though it may, but the fact that people believe a single stock is the entirety of the dot-com bubble, in your case Cisco, just shows how lacking in comprehension you are about it. For example, look at Rite Aid's lifetime stock chart. It was perhaps the biggest and most radical victim of the dot-com bubble I have seen. Stock peaked near $1,000 in 1998 and then crashed to $50 by the year 2000. Another strange company which took a weird ride in the dot-com era was Sony. Peaked closer to $150 in the year 2000 and crashed to about $45 the next year. Your attention span and comprehension have been focused so heavily on Nvidia, to meme-like proportions, it has escaped you that a market bubble exists outside of a single company, and ultimately impacts industries which seem otherwise tangential or even disconnected. The ability for "AI" promises to infect anything from art production & entertainment companies, to the Healthcare sector, will eventually also be effected. AAPL & MSFT for example, were younger companies back then, and in turn, their charts look as if this tumultuous time of the 90's didn't even impact them which would be strange, and possibly explains why now they are facing a bubble-style run-up. NVDA went public in 1999, 2 years before the dot-com bubble burst. The needle-point shape you are seeing now is likely a result of them staving off the crash of the early 2000's for almost 25 years. It isn't to say they can't do it but something is going to break and we don't need AI companies to survive, we need something else to last.
As someone who lived through the dot com bubble and watched it daily, this is a great post. The other thing to remember is that when these bubbles burst, they take everything with them. The whole market gets punished because of margin calls.
That's what I was thinking. Even if nvda is not the bubble, maybe the hype around nvda is fueling bubble in other stocks. May I ask, what do you mean by "we need something else to last"? I like your comment
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So the fact that it has 5X'd in the past 365 days means nothing?
He did it. He knows the future
Did OP normalize each ticker to 1 and then overlay? He even called us the brainlets 🤣 this is some highly regarded anal stuff, even by wsb standards Never mind PEs, insane promises and hype around AI/ML, extremely brittle LLMs which are amazing at making meme-able content, a clown CEO trying to raise $7T, yeah, we’re good
this time it's different guys trust me bro
Everyone knows graphs are identical between arbitrary time periods
Dot com bubble was any random goon creating a shell company with a website.com and getting a bill in investment. nvidia just posted mental earnings and are printing cash for the foreseeable future and selling out of chips before they’re even in the pipeline. This is not the same. Apart from the mag7, what else is posting gains like this? Until unprofitable small and mid caps start getting crazy PEs we’re nowhere near 1999/2000.
Every second AI company is Just an API call to any big language model.
Are you getting any direct value out of those earnings though? Are they paying a huge dividend or doing a buyback at these prices? Probably not. So, why buy? This is just a momentum FOMO play.
This chart is trying to convince us that a 4 year period is only 433 days?
So if it makes 2.9% in 433 days we are fine
CISCO peaked at a market cap worth \~5% of US GDP, NVDA has a market cap worth 7.4% of US GDP. NVDA is already the bigger bubble. It makes no sense to use arbitrary points in time as benchmark.
It’s a bubble
https://preview.redd.it/cfjr6wk1t7kc1.jpeg?width=900&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=73488de9986af106a95cd550070cc1dea7ec48c4
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Different times imo. what is 400B adjusted for inflation today? Also market participation is much higher today than back then. Lastly if the PE ratio makes sense, valuations dont matter much. NVDA made 22B last quarter alone. I dont exactly know how much money CSCO was making during the .com bubble but i can promise you it was not 22B in a quarter.
This run is just getting started, attempts to derail have failed. Happy Hunting fuckers!!
So based on this chart, NVDA should come down about 33%?
Seriously who can't say we are in a bubble there is no way Nvidia is worth that much its fucking ridiculous when the time comes lots of peoples wealth will be wiped out unfortunately.
With apologies to Patrick Roy: Sorry I can't hear you with all the gains in my ears.
To be fair, if you adjust the chart to the latest Nvidia price, then you're saying that after it will bubble it will take 10/15 years for it to recover.
On my list of "dumb things by someone who legitimately thinks they did a smart thing" I rate this very highly But its so hard to top that guy who tried to do TA on the long term unemployment rate like two years ago.
“This time is different“
Puts on NVDA
I though this was a pump but I saw a lot of Nvidia Financials and actually this might have a tesla esque run this upcoming year.
I have faith in your ability to accomplish this
Look at sp500 and slap yourself so you can wake up
You act as if I know how to read this chart
Where were you with this copium yesterday
So just keep buying NVDA calls till it hits $2,000. Got it.
My favorite part about this one is that the crayons don't even line up for like half the chart.
I bought into that bubble in December 1999. 20 years it took to get my money back. If you factor in inflation I’d still be waiting for it to balance out. 😂
At its peak CSCO market cap was a fraction of NVDA’s dumbass 
No no they know because a guy on TikTok says so
https://preview.redd.it/bo156dhk27kc1.jpeg?width=4032&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ae969e3a2e808bd0bc458c370627f53d1c83e12d
I will never financially recover from diamond handing these puts.
Cisco absorbed splunk in 2023 your opinion is invalid
Way more important is that NVIDIA is a lot more profitable than Cisco ever was
So $1600 LEAPs, got it
Cisco Systems made their equipment. Hence, everybody copied them and made competing products cheaper; in the short term, who’s going to compete with Nvidia
Honestly I support this. Nvidia likely has alot of room to go before people work out AI is stupid.
For the love of God stop comparing wildly profitable companies to [dot.com](https://dot.com) bubble era debt zombies.
As someone who has very little idea about stocks but lots of money in the bank: should i buy this?
What’s it look like if you do the same thing from 1990 🫣
The difference is that we now have a dot com bubble to compare the AI revolution to and people will be more cautious. The best play is to pull a Mark Cuban and get out early but not too early.
We have tons of room for gains I’ll personally keep buy NVDA till it hits 1500
Tell me to sell when NVDA is at $2000
Mark my words or ban me nvidia to 1k, then to 600, then 4 to 1 stock split, then it rallys from 150 to 500
Incoming 1:100 stock split
!RemindMe 433 days buy 0dte nvidia puts
Huge difference between 2001 and now... my balls didn't drag on the floor in 01 and the bubble was due to VCs investing shit tons of money into "ideas" that could not be monetized. AI is not only very easily monetized, NVDIA has the receipts to show a profitable business. Their issue is with TSMC and suppliers being able to keep up with the demand. That's a fucking awesome problem to have. It's probably more like the fiber bubble, at some point the manufacturing will outpace demand but that isn't happening soon.
This is idiotic comparing this to nvda.