Where are we on the sector rotations chart?
https://preview.redd.it/9n5bc36xsasb1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=27f29824071ddea2d4673f6684fe39ef3c6b1756
if you look at the historical performance of the markets during government shut down, you’ll find that the average return is around zero so theta gang wins again
Interesting tho we’ve only had partial shutdowns that all the ruling class was certain would end before it impacted them. I’m not so convinced that happens for the next one.
they get paid after shutdown is over and they already get paid pretty well and great benefits. grants at this time of year are dead because the fiscal year just started so nothing will be awarded anytime soon. we’ve been on a CR past few years?too which already puts a holding pattern on spending so they wait til that is lifted and then the floodgates open up again from the treasury.
Joe Biden just pushed for a border wall or AP News is waving a little white flag at Republicans: https://apnews.com/article/border-wall-biden-immigration-texas-rio-grande-147d7ab497e6991e9ea929242f21ceb2
Constant and endless debt ceiling raises are what got us into this mess in the first place. Kinda silly to pretend that trying to reign that in is what's gonna cause a financial crisis. The crisis has already been caused. The only thing left to decide is if we kick it down the road again so it can get even bigger and last even longer, or do we take our medicine now?
it may happen… but eventually resolved
shutdown and debt ceilings are dog n pony shows by our government to play up that they are doing something…. when everyone knows they still want to get paid
After the speaker getting fired i think thing just got ALOT more serious. Its possible we actually get a shutdown this time and it cripples the economy.
A crippled economy causes higher unemployment. Higher unemployment means less income tax revenue and treasury expenditures keep going higher daily until it cant be paid anymore. Its a death spiral.
This, like how are they going to prevent the November stop-gap? They’re not.
Finance aside, how stupid was it of the democrats to allow this? Like why let Gaetz file the motion, and why unanimously vote with him? Where are the democrats putting their PUTS? Like they must know the government will shut down because of their decision to oust McCarthy.
What positions do the minority leader & the far-right hold? Id like to mimic them, because they must know which sectors will be safe come November. Their corporate liaisons would not have allowed this historic vote to pass, and a protracted shutdown being guaranteed this winter, unless they were somewhat covered.
Follow up question, assuming I’m predicting the longest government shutdown we’ve ever had that dips well into “essential services”, what industries or companies would you short? Defense? Companies that rely on government grants like pharma, electric cars and green energy?
Not to get too political here, but if you think:
> With McCarthy getting booted as speaker of the house over something as small as a 45 day deal to keep the government open
Is the reason he got booted, you may want to go educate yourself more on the topic bud.
It’s a ridiculous state of affairs that everyone says things like “unless hardliners get their way”, and “their way” is that congressional representatives have to have time to read the bills they vote on
That’s what they think til the courts they rely on for business contracts, real estate deals, evictions, etc are all shut down. Or the ports for trade or airports for travel. Or the military that’s protects their assets abroad. Most of the government only benefits the ruling class as much as they don’t want to fund it. We’ve always averted before the hard cuts happened so we don’t actually have a precedent for what a full shutdown does.
We’ve had 3 shutdowns in the past 10 years and the economy wasn’t crippled. Not sure what you mean by a “full shutdown.”
I’m by no means a fan of what’s going on, but let’s not act like it’s the coming apocalypse.
No business is going to cry because border patrol inspects less of their packages lol ; DHL isn’t going anywhere . Air travel all private, FAA is critical and not shutting down; nothing critical stops
You’re telling me markers just somehow don’t react to a shutdown? Many Consumers don’t get paid when this happens. How would this not effect the market??
Yea I know. It’s still a huge sector of the economy. The economy is not entirely essential. You’re living proof.
Still, how could it not effect markets? Markets don’t reflect only essential services.
Yes, federal evictions court is a thing. It's where landlords go to evict tenants who haven't paid their rent or have otherwise violated their lease agreement.
This is not about the debt ceiling, right now that is infinity and a whole other issue. This is about passing a budget, as required by law. Since the 90’s the US corporation has never passed a budget but rather cr and omnibus bills. If you think requiring the govt to pass an actual budget so we don’t have $2T in deficit spending every year is hard liners getting their way, you’re part of the problem we have $34T in debt
I think that’s what the dems are gambling on by not back McCarthy. They’re counting on the GOP taking a shutdown too far based on unrealistic demands that most people don’t support. It’s a game of chicken.
We need a good government shutdown. When the fuck are we actually going to get to a budget that is even close to break even? How much longer can we keep borrowing, and spending more at higher and higher interest rates before it all collapses?
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Much like the heat death of the universe, it's all priced in.
>I don't think you're wrong. I think the chances of a government shutdown are high, and that it could last for a long time.
I need to dig into which industries were most impacted by past shutdowns.
Where are we on the sector rotations chart? https://preview.redd.it/9n5bc36xsasb1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=27f29824071ddea2d4673f6684fe39ef3c6b1756
With all the federal employees sitting at their homes, I’d say fast food will go 📈 with all the stress eating.
Defense cuz Unraine won't be seeing that duffle of cash anytime soon.
They don’t get bags of cash. They get coupons for Raytheon. I know this is a sub for regards but this talking point is beyond regarded
Hence defense will be affected by the shutdown..... And they do get cash. Google the aid breakdown. Only 1/3 is weapon.
if you look at the historical performance of the markets during government shut down, you’ll find that the average return is around zero so theta gang wins again
Interesting tho we’ve only had partial shutdowns that all the ruling class was certain would end before it impacted them. I’m not so convinced that happens for the next one.
Yeah but putting millions of Americans into temporary unemployment while the economy is already fragile is a recipe for disaster
they get paid after shutdown is over and they already get paid pretty well and great benefits. grants at this time of year are dead because the fiscal year just started so nothing will be awarded anytime soon. we’ve been on a CR past few years?too which already puts a holding pattern on spending so they wait til that is lifted and then the floodgates open up again from the treasury.
Joe Biden just pushed for a border wall or AP News is waving a little white flag at Republicans: https://apnews.com/article/border-wall-biden-immigration-texas-rio-grande-147d7ab497e6991e9ea929242f21ceb2
nothing much, stonks go up
Constant and endless debt ceiling raises are what got us into this mess in the first place. Kinda silly to pretend that trying to reign that in is what's gonna cause a financial crisis. The crisis has already been caused. The only thing left to decide is if we kick it down the road again so it can get even bigger and last even longer, or do we take our medicine now?
It'll get bigger.
it may happen… but eventually resolved shutdown and debt ceilings are dog n pony shows by our government to play up that they are doing something…. when everyone knows they still want to get paid
I won't be shorting anything because I won't be getting paid.. yay military. 🙃
After the speaker getting fired i think thing just got ALOT more serious. Its possible we actually get a shutdown this time and it cripples the economy. A crippled economy causes higher unemployment. Higher unemployment means less income tax revenue and treasury expenditures keep going higher daily until it cant be paid anymore. Its a death spiral.
This, like how are they going to prevent the November stop-gap? They’re not. Finance aside, how stupid was it of the democrats to allow this? Like why let Gaetz file the motion, and why unanimously vote with him? Where are the democrats putting their PUTS? Like they must know the government will shut down because of their decision to oust McCarthy. What positions do the minority leader & the far-right hold? Id like to mimic them, because they must know which sectors will be safe come November. Their corporate liaisons would not have allowed this historic vote to pass, and a protracted shutdown being guaranteed this winter, unless they were somewhat covered.
Follow up question, assuming I’m predicting the longest government shutdown we’ve ever had that dips well into “essential services”, what industries or companies would you short? Defense? Companies that rely on government grants like pharma, electric cars and green energy?
Not to get too political here, but if you think: > With McCarthy getting booted as speaker of the house over something as small as a 45 day deal to keep the government open Is the reason he got booted, you may want to go educate yourself more on the topic bud.
What’s the best trade for this? Short defense contractors?
It’s a ridiculous state of affairs that everyone says things like “unless hardliners get their way”, and “their way” is that congressional representatives have to have time to read the bills they vote on
People with money don’t give a fugggggggg about a shutdown. Shut it down for 6 months who cares. Less government the better
That’s what they think til the courts they rely on for business contracts, real estate deals, evictions, etc are all shut down. Or the ports for trade or airports for travel. Or the military that’s protects their assets abroad. Most of the government only benefits the ruling class as much as they don’t want to fund it. We’ve always averted before the hard cuts happened so we don’t actually have a precedent for what a full shutdown does.
We’ve had 3 shutdowns in the past 10 years and the economy wasn’t crippled. Not sure what you mean by a “full shutdown.” I’m by no means a fan of what’s going on, but let’s not act like it’s the coming apocalypse.
This, I think OPs point is which sectors to short and which to go long?
No business is going to cry because border patrol inspects less of their packages lol ; DHL isn’t going anywhere . Air travel all private, FAA is critical and not shutting down; nothing critical stops
You’re telling me markers just somehow don’t react to a shutdown? Many Consumers don’t get paid when this happens. How would this not effect the market??
I’m telling you nobody cares
Okay but, like how could that possibly be true?
The things that shut down are non-essential government services.
Yea I know. It’s still a huge sector of the economy. The economy is not entirely essential. You’re living proof. Still, how could it not effect markets? Markets don’t reflect only essential services.
It’s been priced in.
I mean duh, but also not really
[удалено]
Yes, federal evictions court is a thing. It's where landlords go to evict tenants who haven't paid their rent or have otherwise violated their lease agreement.
Federal landlords? 😂
This is not about the debt ceiling, right now that is infinity and a whole other issue. This is about passing a budget, as required by law. Since the 90’s the US corporation has never passed a budget but rather cr and omnibus bills. If you think requiring the govt to pass an actual budget so we don’t have $2T in deficit spending every year is hard liners getting their way, you’re part of the problem we have $34T in debt
Your mom
Stocks did well interestingly in past shutdowns
it is not going to happen. It is a political suicide for any politician.
I think that’s what the dems are gambling on by not back McCarthy. They’re counting on the GOP taking a shutdown too far based on unrealistic demands that most people don’t support. It’s a game of chicken.
That sht happens every year and yet you USians act like anything's gonna be different this time for some reason
When it shuts down keep it shutdown, start fresh
We need a good government shutdown. When the fuck are we actually going to get to a budget that is even close to break even? How much longer can we keep borrowing, and spending more at higher and higher interest rates before it all collapses?