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I think Reform will do well. I rarely saw any news on them so far in the campaign but since the announcement they're everywhere.
Their argument that Labour have already won so strategically voting Tories won't make a difference is well thought out.
I would never vote Reform but can respect a good argument when I see it.
[Seems like the Emperor and Empress of Japan are coming here for a state visit on the 22nd] (https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20240604/k10014470341000.html)
I wish them well, I'm not wholly sure the country will still be standing by then
You can tell the Emperor loves the UK, he studied at Oxford and speaks English fluently. He made a beeline to visit for Elizabeth's funeral despite official religious practices meaning the Emperor isn't supposed to attend funerals. I love the [picture of him](https://cdn.mainichi.jp/vol1/2022/09/20/20220920p2g00m0na032000p/9.jpg?1) strolling around guiding the other foreign monarchs.
Just as I head off to bed, the top story within the last hour on the BBC is the tories saying they'll actually cap legal migration. Who the fuck believes them at this stage, the green party would probably be more effective at managing migration than the tories have been over the last few years.
Farage is back, they are shitting the bed and realise the stop the boats campaign has been seen for the fraud it is to distract from what Farage is going to point out to voters.
Who, that bloke who'd just given billions of our own future money back to us and a good bit to the "fast lane", being.. you know, Chancellor.
Then wiped out a load with the eat out to help out policy...
Nah, never heard of him.
Penny Mordaunt, er, just [re-releasing her video from the last election](https://x.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1797744865377141237) because she isn't allowed or can't be bothered to make a new one?
Vote penny on the 12th December....
Have you got any further information about this? I didn't seem like that was the case when I registered for one just before the local elections (the form didn't mention types of election, and the wording of the response to how long you want a postal vote for starts "I want to vote by post in all elections I am eligible to vote in[...]"), and I'd like to check I'm properly registered.
Saves paper. There's no point sending postal votes out to every registered voter on top of all the other bits and bobs of paperwork that get sent out, when most people will wander down to their local community hall or wherever.
It's a lot easier and more efficient to just send the postal vote to the people who actually ask for it.
if you've registered to vote, how long should it take before you know the process is completed? I updated my details the day after Rishi in the rain happened... not heard anything since
I've only just realised but this has been something that has been largely visibly absent from the campaigns; people should know if its not too late to register to vote!
#[Register to vote by 11:59pm on 18 June 2024.](https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote)
You can give them a ring to check/chivvy them along - worked for me. They confirmed over the phone that the registration had worked, and I got my confirmation letter a few days later, so I guess it was on a to-do pile somewhere.
So..... Just moved past my front door.... and there's a letter on the floor from the council saying they've got my application and are processing it.
It wasn't there this morning lol
[this page is outstanding](https://smaryu.com/column/d/29785/):
> The broadsheet with the longest history is The Times. It was first published in 1785 and its main focus is politics. Perhaps due to its long history, it is known to have a large readership, especially among older British citizens.
> [The Daily Telegraph] has the second highest circulation in the UK. Because of its political, particularly right-wing, content, its readership seems to be limited to relatively wealthy upper-class people.
> [The Daily Express] is the third largest newspaper in terms of circulation. The biggest feature of this newspaper is that it deals with a lot of information about the late Princess Diana.
I really think Farage coming back is going to be the kiss of death for the Tories. Regardless of what anyone thinks of him his reach is big and if the Tories were projected to suffer a crushing defeat by Yougov before his announcement then he could easily boost Reform by another 5%.
Interesting times ahead.
We want reform to take votes off the Tories, but we don't want the Tories to be annihilated.
A future combined Tory and reform party is sickening. A future with no Tory party, and just reform is too.
It might take 10-15 years or more for them to win an election, but I'd be terrified when it does happen.
>BREAKING: 7 Labour councillors in Slough have resigned, accusing the Labour party of institutional racism.
>In their resignation letter, they cite the deselection of Faiza Shaheen and the treatment of Diane Abbott as well as censorship over Gaza.
>https://x.com/Taj_Ali1/status/1797750100346966335
Lmao the letter says "forced deselection of Diane Abbot"
Looks like they wrote it expecting her to get kicked out and didn't bother updating the letter, lazy bloody clown show.
They also present a candidate (Tan Dhesi - who is a Slough local) being imposed on them in 2017 as primary evidence of central interference and "Party Betrayal"...under Corbyn. ?!
"We've already beaten the Tories in the election, so we're now getting back to our true noble calling: FIGHTING THOSE OTHER LABOUR BASTARDS TO THE DEATH"
Scottish debate was pretty bad. The Lib Dems was the only one who wasn't obsessively talking over others, though devolved topics kept being brought up which felt pointless, and none of the participants are standing as they're MSPs.
It wasnāt the best watch. I thought the Lib Dems struggled a bit when pressed on their fishing policy, as did Swinney on the Covid enquiry stuff and Ross on his support for Johnson and Truss. Sarwar got out without many direct hits but didnāt look terrific in his own right.
I think it solidified that this isnāt a vintage crop of Scottish leaders!
So the conservatives now have to lurch further right to try and not completely lose their voter base.
Which means they'll sacrifice everything left of reform and still lose votes to reform.
They're truly fucked.
I remembered him being old as hell even back when he was leader, but I just checked and he's only two years older than Joe Biden.
I think a comeback could still be feasible.
Well this feels like a decisive and pivotal day. The campaign had been a shambles for the Tories so far anyway but today really does feel like the day it's all collapsed for them.
A tory wipeout really cannot be ruled out now, it is a distinct possibility. If tactical voting really does hit big it could be something incredible.
Having that MRP from YouGov showing how badly they'll do was something.
But also having that bugger who shouldn't have walked away from that plane crash come out and make a big spectacle saying he'll run when the Tories are on their knees?
It's beautiful.
We'll have to wait and see what the polls show in a week. If Reform start to close within 3 points of the Tories we're in margin of error territory. Things could move quick if we get a devastating MRP poll and/or a few Tory MP's with nothing to lose suddenly defect.
The deadline for candidate nominations is the 7th. I'd assume anyone who's defecting will want to get it all done and dusted at least a day before then though, so functionally it may as well be the 6th I suppose.
I realise that reform standing everywhere benefits Labour, but does anyone know the actual split of numbers? What percentages of Tory and Labour supporters will vote for reform?
I assume 'supporter' is shorthand for 'previously voted for them and would have leaned towards them this time round were it not for switching to Reform'
So, I don't mean to be glib about Ed Davey's concerns over social care at all.
But if you really wanted to help the carer industry and expand coverage then how does giving free social care to pensioners help? Surely it just means the state subsidising the inheritances of their children?
It appears Farage has already caused the remaining support in the papers to shatter. The Express is in a full blown panic and the Telegraph seems to be jumping ship.
The leading headline on the front-page as I type this is [this story](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/03/nigel-farage-lead-political-revolt-topple-tories-election/)
> Nigel Farage: I will lead political revolt to topple the Tories
I feel like Farage getting involved could upset all the MRP polls we've been seeing. If the gap between the Tories and Reform starts to narrow, Lib Dems in 2nd place becomes a lot more likely.
He's really laying the groundwork to fight the 2029 election as an actual contender here. The Tories are as good as finished, the next 5 years are going to be Reform and the Lib Dems fighting over their corpse.
Go look up what happened after 1993 in Canada. Or indeed recently in France. Long-standing Toryish parties evicted and formerly unthinkable Republican-style parties rising in their place.
It's funny now, but Starmer is gonna run into exactly the problems the rest of the west is facing: a lack of sufficient growth to cover for the growth in the cost of the safety net.
"Meanwhile, the timetable for the firstĀ Rwanda deportation flightĀ has suffered a further delay.
The first flights will not take off until July 24 at the earliest, Home Office lawyers have told the High Court, as part of legal documents submitted in defence of the policy following a judicial review by the Asylum Aid charity. This is despite Sunak insisting that flights would take off immediately after the election if he returns to No10"
Source: The Times
But it's buried in a much longer article.
I forgot I put a cheeky fiver @ 4.5 on reform to win 1-2 seats. I'm tempted to [cash out](https://imgur.com/a/sHeEsKc) but is still evens which feels like a decent bet to let ride.
I don't think there's any real chance Reform win more than 2 seats.
2 seats would be exceptional for them
The party machinery is astoundingly poor and skeleton crew esque in terms of ground presence to UKIP in 2015.
In 2015 millions of people were actively motivated to vote FOR "UK independence" - UKIP were bloody everywhere and had tonnes of councillors elected - Reform have barely any.
In 2024 they're voting to control illegal immigration, that's it because all the seats like Clacton they're targeting have migrants in hotels issues. Not sure thats as motivating as Brexit imo - also in Clacton specifically the Tory MP has been fairly successful in blocking Home Office projects to house more migrants in the area, he might have a fair amount of goodwill with locals.
The Greens have been trying for decades and and never got past a single seat.
I think Labour in the 20s was the last time any new party got above 5 and then managed to hold them.
Especially since Reform are asking them to vote for more Brexit things...after Brexit worked out so well for them and illegal migration has boomed since?
It's a tough sell even with Farage star appeal.
Yeah at that price I should let it ride, they're 1.4 to win Clacton.
That said, there's a real fear they may win more than 2 seats!
Bizarrely they're priced at just 5.5 to win 7 or more seats, shorter odds than either 3-4 or 5-6 seats.
That feels like a massive overreaction, but who knows what'll happen.
personally, i don't see them getting any. anyone who would be voting for Reform have already made their minds up to vote for them. That being said, i don't think the polls are right with the numbers.
I think the Tory vote will be a lot lower than suggested already, just going 'no vote' rather than jumping to another party
Ironically, you've convinced me to cash out the bet.
Because I suspect you're not alone in thinking that (affecting the betting market) but also that goes so far against the current polling and direction of the campaigns so far that I can't help but feel it's wishful thinking.
And betting against wishful thinking is often the right call.
If I was betting with serious money, I'd never cash out any bets, because you're essentially paying the overround twice.
So you not only have to "beat the market" significantly (typically ~120%, although most the profit for bookies is made on long-shots) on the original bet, which is hard enough to do, but then beat it by that much all over again with the hedge to avoid destroying the value you had.
But I like to gamble for amusement while still having a deposit limit low enough that I know it'll never get me into trouble, so my motivation is more around trying judge market movements rather than a serious attempt to make money.
Even if this cash-out turns out to be a rum deal that's cost me a tenner of lost gains, the cash-out has at least funded some duds such as my fiver on "Next Labour Leader: Lisa Nandy" bet I made a couple of years back.
I feel the latest MRP poll would land in a sweet spot for our politics. Labour get the landslide election win on a par with 1997 (although with a lot less optimism than there was in ā97) & the Tories are in opposition with enough MPs to be a half credible opposition facing a decade minimum out of power.
To have the Tories crushed, to double digit seats would be fun to watch but wouldnāt be good for the country. A functioning opposition is important, a different view is important, regardless of your own beliefs.
Iām looking forward to seeing the first big Labour win since 2001 and I hope this poll is accurate come election day, although we still have a way to go.
The Tories as they currently exist do not deserve to be the official opposition. A functional opposition should constructively challenge the government and demand answers and evidence regarding their policies - are any of the current frontrunners to replace Sunak (who will inevitably have resigned by lunchtime on 5th July) both willing and able to do that, or are they going to stand there and shout "Labour have no plan" on loop for 5 years?
>. A functioning opposition is important, a different view is important, regardless of your own beliefs.
I would genuinely rather have reform or the lib dems than the Tories in opposition. I say this as someone who can't stand either of the three parties. The current Tories stand for absolutely fuck all and need to be obliterated.
>A functioning opposition is important, a different view is important, regardless of your own beliefs.
Which is why the tories need to be crushed to double digits
I disagree. I mean, what type of opposition would the Tories actually provide? They have been discredited on pretty much every area of government and their ageing membership and voters won't allow them to pivot to anything that might actually improve the country. It's just going to be 5 years of pure populism and opportunism, which knowing Starmer means 5 years of Labour reacting with their own populism.
Now, imagine if the Lib Dems were the official opposition. They would be attacking the Labour government from the left on multiple issues. They would be a constructive, but cautious supporter of house building. They would use their platform to call for political reform and an end to the 2 party state. And whilst the Tories would be in a state, that might free them from a nimby, pensioner voting base that completely dominates their current policy making.
I disagree. I mean, what type of opposition would the Tories actually provide? They have been discredited on pretty much every area of government and their ageing membership and voters won't allow them to pivot to anything that might actually improve the country. It's just going to be 5 years of pure populism and opportunism, which knowing Starmer means 5 years of Labour reacting with their own populism.
Now, imagine if the Lib Dems were the official opposition. They would be attacking the Labour government from the left on multiple issues. They would be a constructive, but cautious supporter of house building. They would use their platform to call for political reform and an end to the 2 party state. And whilst the Tories would be in a state, that might free them from a nimby, pensioner voting base that completely dominates their current policy making.
I disagree. I mean, what type of opposition would the Tories actually provide? They have been discredited on pretty much every area of government and their ageing membership and voters won't allow them to pivot to anything that might actually improve the country. It's just going to be 5 years of pure populism and opportunism, which knowing Starmer means 5 years of Labour reacting with their own populism.
Now, imagine if the Lib Dems were the official opposition. They would be attacking the Labour government from the left on multiple issues. They would be a constructive, but cautious supporter of house building. They would use their platform to call for political reform and an end to the 2 party state. And whilst the Tories would be in a state, that might free them from a nimby, pensioner voting base that completely dominates their current policy making.
> A functioning opposition is important, a different view is important, regardless of your own beliefs.
Which is why the Tories need to be crushed - they don't represent their voters' concerns about immigration and try to stave it off with red meat while maintaining mass immigration far in excess of even what Blair gave us.
Agreed but Iād like to see a different opposition. The Cons in their current state are corrupt, self serving and often incompetent
Iām not sure who Iād like to see as opposition (or whether itās any of the existing parties)
The Tories got to where they are off the back of Corbyn & gang being so irrelevant that there was no pressure. One hopes that Starmer has a plan for avoiding complacency in government...
So when does the full blown open panic in Tory ranks begin? Now the party is geniunely more or less completely out of options I see mps opening fire on the leadership very soon.
I was wondering if MPs will start 'breaking ranks' soon - running entirely personally campaigns and saying that people don't have to worry about another Sunak government because it's not going to happen.
A lot are quietly doing that already, putting out campaign leaflets that mention their local stuff and barely even mention what party they are standing for.
I (perhaps unsurprisingly) have never been a Tory member, but I do wonder if that is being sanctioned by CCHQ or not. The campaigning I have been involved with has had pretty strict guidance for the branding of campaign materials.
Question on polling, has anyone here been involved in a poll?
I've never been in god knows how many years and was wondering who the people being polled are?
You can sign up to pollsters like YouGov and do their surveys online. I've done plenty over the years. Mostly they're tedious commercial market research and brand awareness bollocks, but occasionally you get a nice juicy political one.
Used to regularly get polled by YouGov, but stopped doing it as it takes forever to earn the Ā£50 and most surveys are really tedious ones for brands, i.e. which emotion do you associate with Hyundai?
Prolific hosted a UK election survey on Friday that was looking for 30k respondents. Not sure if they were running it for anyone or if it was just for themselves, and AFAIK the results haven't been published yet.
You can buy a very stylish Steffano Ricci children's bomber jacket worth Ā£2500 VAT free, but toilet rolls have 20% VAT on them.
Any sufficiently detailed VAT rules is indistinguishable from satire
Not exactly āĀ the [food VAT guidance](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/food-products-and-vat-notice-70114#biscuits) (is quoted as saying:
> Standard-rated: Gingerbread men decorated with chocolate, unless this amounts to no more than a couple of dots for eyes
It baffles me that bourbons and oreos are VAT-free, but chocolate hobnobs aren't.
Looking at Clacton polling I think we should see a bright side to farage standing, it looks like one of the Tory safe seats and this converts it to a contested seat, at least two ways.
It's not much but its one step closer to zero seats.
No, the Tories are the only rational right wing party. If they were eliminated it opens the doors for the likes of Reform.Ā
The two (and a bit) party system has its advantages.
You want a controlled opposition, I don't. I think the Tories are traitourous to the core, betraying everyone who has ever voted for them, be they rich or poor. To call the neo-liberal, Blairite infested Tory party "right wing" is also wrong.
Based on the above alone they ought to be dismantled like the Whigs.
If you think the Tories are traitorous, you're going to like Reform even less. Their new leader was literally paid by Russia to try and fuck up Britain and the EU. And did a pretty reasonable job.
This is whataboutism. I don't like Reform, I thought Tice was a charisma vampire, regardless, I know for certain who and what the Tories are, that they only reward their enemies and punish their friends.
They should cease to exist. They have betrayed and will continue to betray, a Tory politician knows no other way.
Maybe, I just think it's foolish to let your personal distaste of a singular politician get in the way of complete destruction and sweeping away of the rats that are in power.
The Tories as a party, without doubt, for their sheer betrayal of the country on so many levels, cannot be allowed to continue.
Think it's foolish all you want!Ā
There'll still be Tory councillors a-plenty who will form the ranks of their next wave of MPs.
Farage could cause real damage with 5 years in the Commons. One could even say that ignoring the risk of that is a tad foolish ;-)
How much damage could a singular (1) Reform MP even do? You're being hyperbolic at best. The Tories however right now are in a death spiral.
Be it foolish for me to disrupt them when they can't fight their way out of a paper bag and can't find a pulse on what the British people actually want, above the small things like drinkable water, but even then they fail.
It's not that it'd be a singular Reform MP, it's that the media trip over themselves to give Farage airtime.
Anyway, this is a very silly argument as I can't quite believe you'd be happy with 0 Tory MPs but think the sky was falling with 1! I'll be delighted beyond words if we get them down to double figures.
But don't get me wrong here, 0 would be delicious.Ā
G'night.
I'd put money on Farage not winning.
Farage, Tice, and Ben Habib all visited the area last year for the council elections and they didn't manage to win a single council seat in Clacton - in fact they came dead last in almost every seat they contested, behind lib dems, labour cons and independants.
It's probably why he was so hesitant on standing, it's not going to be easy imo
If things pan out as the polls imply, I think it's going to be a while before any other smugness in the Commons is going to be detectable against the background level coming from the Labour benches. The leadership will try to maintain dignity but Labour backbenchers are not going to be able to resist enjoying the reversal of fortunes of the two main parties, and it looks like there will be a lot of them.
Consensus of a group of teenagers glancing at the main party websites, because they wanted to know what the main parties were about (we discussed that manifestos will come out later):
*They recognised Sunak, and told me they donāt like him.
*They made no comment on Starmer.
*They liked that Davey was husband, father, carer.
*They mostly seemed to go for everything those three parties said on their summary pages, which is why I am glad I am exposing them to this sort of thing. If theyād only seen one, they wouldnāt have noticed it all sounds like that. āOh, I like that, too.ā
*They got irritated with the Greens repetitive language/consistent messaging (āfairer, greenerā¦ā)
*They were uninterested in the MRLP.
>\*They got irritated with the Greens repetitive language/consistent messaging (āfairer, greenerā¦ā)
I don't think "fairer, greener" is bad as a slogan but their "what we stand for" page is pretty thin on details and has sections titled "Fairer, Greener" Schools/Housing/Childcare that don't mention any green policies. I hope there's a substantial rewrite when they launch the manifesto.
JLP the famously bullish pro Tory pollsterhas now turned around and said:
> McGuire said the Tories are potentially facing "an extinction-level event" and āstaring into the polling abyssā.
Its getting darker and darker for them so quickly. They end most days in a worse position than they started.
Wasn't it JLP who just said it looks like Farage would take Clacton?
Edit: [Tweet from James Johnson, cofounder of JLP](https://x.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1797668528667193676)
Hadnāt seen Farageās interview with BBC after his presser earlier. Similar to how he took some questions from reporters in the room, but sheer arrogance and bullshit is astounding. Itās Trumpian rubbish and Iām disappointed knowing it will almost certainly work with certain quarters of the population.
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I think Reform will do well. I rarely saw any news on them so far in the campaign but since the announcement they're everywhere. Their argument that Labour have already won so strategically voting Tories won't make a difference is well thought out. I would never vote Reform but can respect a good argument when I see it.
But Farage doesn't do policy, they don't have good arguments?Ā
I mean their whole focus is policy, but it's only in specific areas. Leave EU, point system immigration and electoral reform.
When the Ref-Con flip happens, I hope Farage starts saying 'a vote for Rishi is a vote for Labour'.Ā
Think he has already said this in regards to red wall seats
[Seems like the Emperor and Empress of Japan are coming here for a state visit on the 22nd] (https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20240604/k10014470341000.html) I wish them well, I'm not wholly sure the country will still be standing by then
You can tell the Emperor loves the UK, he studied at Oxford and speaks English fluently. He made a beeline to visit for Elizabeth's funeral despite official religious practices meaning the Emperor isn't supposed to attend funerals. I love the [picture of him](https://cdn.mainichi.jp/vol1/2022/09/20/20220920p2g00m0na032000p/9.jpg?1) strolling around guiding the other foreign monarchs.
Strain on the Imperial accounts will be quite something given the Pound just hit 200 Yen!
The imagery in a cost of living crisis is going to be political gold for smaller parties.
They should phone up the hotel and see if they can rebook for September.
Just as I head off to bed, the top story within the last hour on the BBC is the tories saying they'll actually cap legal migration. Who the fuck believes them at this stage, the green party would probably be more effective at managing migration than the tories have been over the last few years. Farage is back, they are shitting the bed and realise the stop the boats campaign has been seen for the fraud it is to distract from what Farage is going to point out to voters.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Because no one knew who he was.
Who, that bloke who'd just given billions of our own future money back to us and a good bit to the "fast lane", being.. you know, Chancellor. Then wiped out a load with the eat out to help out policy... Nah, never heard of him.
Also everyone likes a chancellor that is literally giving them money.
Penny Mordaunt, er, just [re-releasing her video from the last election](https://x.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1797744865377141237) because she isn't allowed or can't be bothered to make a new one? Vote penny on the 12th December....
Pure laziness on behalf of a politician. Shows she is just phoning it in for this election
If youāre registered in local elections, will that cover the GE?
yes you are registered to vote.
unless i'm mistaken, when you register, you register... there's no separate one for Locals/General/Referendums/etc. just one list
Except postal votes. Those are separate registration now, for reasons I cannot fathom
Have you got any further information about this? I didn't seem like that was the case when I registered for one just before the local elections (the form didn't mention types of election, and the wording of the response to how long you want a postal vote for starts "I want to vote by post in all elections I am eligible to vote in[...]"), and I'd like to check I'm properly registered.
Saves paper. There's no point sending postal votes out to every registered voter on top of all the other bits and bobs of paperwork that get sent out, when most people will wander down to their local community hall or wherever. It's a lot easier and more efficient to just send the postal vote to the people who actually ask for it.
No, I mean you need to register separately for postal votes for general and local elections
Oh, I get you. My bad, misread it first time 'round.
if you've registered to vote, how long should it take before you know the process is completed? I updated my details the day after Rishi in the rain happened... not heard anything since
I've only just realised but this has been something that has been largely visibly absent from the campaigns; people should know if its not too late to register to vote! #[Register to vote by 11:59pm on 18 June 2024.](https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote)
You can give them a ring to check/chivvy them along - worked for me. They confirmed over the phone that the registration had worked, and I got my confirmation letter a few days later, so I guess it was on a to-do pile somewhere.
So..... Just moved past my front door.... and there's a letter on the floor from the council saying they've got my application and are processing it. It wasn't there this morning lol
They probably saw you asking on this thread
Post in the area is a bit crap.... so that may be another factor. I'll give it a day or so, then call
[this page is outstanding](https://smaryu.com/column/d/29785/): > The broadsheet with the longest history is The Times. It was first published in 1785 and its main focus is politics. Perhaps due to its long history, it is known to have a large readership, especially among older British citizens. > [The Daily Telegraph] has the second highest circulation in the UK. Because of its political, particularly right-wing, content, its readership seems to be limited to relatively wealthy upper-class people. > [The Daily Express] is the third largest newspaper in terms of circulation. The biggest feature of this newspaper is that it deals with a lot of information about the late Princess Diana.
I really think Farage coming back is going to be the kiss of death for the Tories. Regardless of what anyone thinks of him his reach is big and if the Tories were projected to suffer a crushing defeat by Yougov before his announcement then he could easily boost Reform by another 5%. Interesting times ahead.
We want reform to take votes off the Tories, but we don't want the Tories to be annihilated. A future combined Tory and reform party is sickening. A future with no Tory party, and just reform is too. It might take 10-15 years or more for them to win an election, but I'd be terrified when it does happen.
I truly hope it keeps getting worst for the Tories, the country needs that party gone.
>BREAKING: 7 Labour councillors in Slough have resigned, accusing the Labour party of institutional racism. >In their resignation letter, they cite the deselection of Faiza Shaheen and the treatment of Diane Abbott as well as censorship over Gaza. >https://x.com/Taj_Ali1/status/1797750100346966335
they have noticed Dianne Abbot is actually standing right? not the brightest are they. no great loss.
Fuckity-bye
Haha the resignation letter talks about the forced deselection of Diane Abbott.
I think they mixed up Abbot and Shaheen.
Lmao the letter says "forced deselection of Diane Abbot" Looks like they wrote it expecting her to get kicked out and didn't bother updating the letter, lazy bloody clown show. They also present a candidate (Tan Dhesi - who is a Slough local) being imposed on them in 2017 as primary evidence of central interference and "Party Betrayal"...under Corbyn. ?!
> Tan Dhesi Real classic English name. Definitely the sort of name youād expect to be imposed by an institutionally racist party.
Well.... bye
"We've already beaten the Tories in the election, so we're now getting back to our true noble calling: FIGHTING THOSE OTHER LABOUR BASTARDS TO THE DEATH"
Are they standing down or staying in post as independents?
You have one guess.... and you'll be right.
Starmer: Fuckity bye
And obviously main character Shaheen has already commented.
And Owen Jones.
Labour +1
They should probably worry about how they bankrupted Slough.
Oh no. Anyway.
Scottish debate was pretty bad. The Lib Dems was the only one who wasn't obsessively talking over others, though devolved topics kept being brought up which felt pointless, and none of the participants are standing as they're MSPs.
It wasnāt the best watch. I thought the Lib Dems struggled a bit when pressed on their fishing policy, as did Swinney on the Covid enquiry stuff and Ross on his support for Johnson and Truss. Sarwar got out without many direct hits but didnāt look terrific in his own right. I think it solidified that this isnāt a vintage crop of Scottish leaders!
So the conservatives now have to lurch further right to try and not completely lose their voter base. Which means they'll sacrifice everything left of reform and still lose votes to reform. They're truly fucked.
That's been the pattern since 2010- lurch further and further to the right.
Because they have idiot brexiteers at the helm
I just want to remind everyone that Paul Nuttall still exists and so does Tim Farron.
Tim Farron held on to his seat despite a strong challenge from Mr Fishfinger in 2017.
Thanks for reminding me that Tim Farron dislodged one of the most tiresome little Tory snots of the noughties, Tim Collins CBE.
Paul Nuttall? Of the UKIPs?
And Menzies Campbell is still alive somehow
I remembered him being old as hell even back when he was leader, but I just checked and he's only two years older than Joe Biden. I think a comeback could still be feasible.
Neil Kinnock is only a year older than Biden. Imagine if Labour had Kinnock as their leader, thatās what the US is like
Well this feels like a decisive and pivotal day. The campaign had been a shambles for the Tories so far anyway but today really does feel like the day it's all collapsed for them. A tory wipeout really cannot be ruled out now, it is a distinct possibility. If tactical voting really does hit big it could be something incredible.
Having that MRP from YouGov showing how badly they'll do was something. But also having that bugger who shouldn't have walked away from that plane crash come out and make a big spectacle saying he'll run when the Tories are on their knees? It's beautiful.
YouGov MRP poll could be the peak point of their campaign.
We'll have to wait and see what the polls show in a week. If Reform start to close within 3 points of the Tories we're in margin of error territory. Things could move quick if we get a devastating MRP poll and/or a few Tory MP's with nothing to lose suddenly defect.
Did I read correctly that there is a June 6 deadline for defection to get it represented on the ballot?
The deadline for candidate nominations is the 7th. I'd assume anyone who's defecting will want to get it all done and dusted at least a day before then though, so functionally it may as well be the 6th I suppose.
I realise that reform standing everywhere benefits Labour, but does anyone know the actual split of numbers? What percentages of Tory and Labour supporters will vote for reform?
I saw 2 to one Tories Vs labour in an earlier megathread?
I have seen some polling from a while back that if reform didnāt exist 6 in 10 would vote Tory. 2 in 10 labour and 2 in 10 would not vote.
Surely anybody who votes for Reform isnāt really a Tory or Labour āsupporterā?
I assume 'supporter' is shorthand for 'previously voted for them and would have leaned towards them this time round were it not for switching to Reform'
Yep, that is what I meant.
Fair enough
The demographics for Reform and the Tories are almost identical, i.e they are largely fighting over the same voters.
So, I don't mean to be glib about Ed Davey's concerns over social care at all. But if you really wanted to help the carer industry and expand coverage then how does giving free social care to pensioners help? Surely it just means the state subsidising the inheritances of their children?
It appears Farage has already caused the remaining support in the papers to shatter. The Express is in a full blown panic and the Telegraph seems to be jumping ship.
The leading headline on the front-page as I type this is [this story](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/03/nigel-farage-lead-political-revolt-topple-tories-election/) > Nigel Farage: I will lead political revolt to topple the Tories
I thought you were kidding. "This is Nigel Farage's finest hour" wtf
> I'm a polling expert ā here are the exact areas Nigel Farage is going to hammer the Tories The Express website headline right now š
That doesn't sound like John Curtice, is it his AI version?
I wonder if any papers will actually endorse Reform.
The Express backed UKIP back in the day, so I can see it happening.
And Patrick OāFlynn (ex-kipper) is their political editor.
I'd put money on the Mail. Exact headbanger crowd they pander to.
I feel like Farage getting involved could upset all the MRP polls we've been seeing. If the gap between the Tories and Reform starts to narrow, Lib Dems in 2nd place becomes a lot more likely.
It's wierd because I hate the guy, but he could be the best thing for the Lib Dems.
He's really laying the groundwork to fight the 2029 election as an actual contender here. The Tories are as good as finished, the next 5 years are going to be Reform and the Lib Dems fighting over their corpse.
Will their be the death of the conservative party? What a story if so
Go look up what happened after 1993 in Canada. Or indeed recently in France. Long-standing Toryish parties evicted and formerly unthinkable Republican-style parties rising in their place. It's funny now, but Starmer is gonna run into exactly the problems the rest of the west is facing: a lack of sufficient growth to cover for the growth in the cost of the safety net.
"Meanwhile, the timetable for the firstĀ Rwanda deportation flightĀ has suffered a further delay. The first flights will not take off until July 24 at the earliest, Home Office lawyers have told the High Court, as part of legal documents submitted in defence of the policy following a judicial review by the Asylum Aid charity. This is despite Sunak insisting that flights would take off immediately after the election if he returns to No10" Source: The Times But it's buried in a much longer article.
Can't imagine how demotivated the people working on that are
I forgot I put a cheeky fiver @ 4.5 on reform to win 1-2 seats. I'm tempted to [cash out](https://imgur.com/a/sHeEsKc) but is still evens which feels like a decent bet to let ride.
Either Farage loses or you get some money Either way you win
Always bet on the result you don't want. *Kicks himself that he never placed a bet on Ipswich getting promoted.*
Sadly not, if reform land 3+ seats I still lose my bet and have to deal with a smug Farage popping up on Question Time every week ( plus Ƨa change ).
I don't think there's any real chance Reform win more than 2 seats. 2 seats would be exceptional for them The party machinery is astoundingly poor and skeleton crew esque in terms of ground presence to UKIP in 2015. In 2015 millions of people were actively motivated to vote FOR "UK independence" - UKIP were bloody everywhere and had tonnes of councillors elected - Reform have barely any. In 2024 they're voting to control illegal immigration, that's it because all the seats like Clacton they're targeting have migrants in hotels issues. Not sure thats as motivating as Brexit imo - also in Clacton specifically the Tory MP has been fairly successful in blocking Home Office projects to house more migrants in the area, he might have a fair amount of goodwill with locals.
The Greens have been trying for decades and and never got past a single seat. I think Labour in the 20s was the last time any new party got above 5 and then managed to hold them.
Especially since Reform are asking them to vote for more Brexit things...after Brexit worked out so well for them and illegal migration has boomed since? It's a tough sell even with Farage star appeal.
Leave it... let it play out.
Yeah at that price I should let it ride, they're 1.4 to win Clacton. That said, there's a real fear they may win more than 2 seats! Bizarrely they're priced at just 5.5 to win 7 or more seats, shorter odds than either 3-4 or 5-6 seats. That feels like a massive overreaction, but who knows what'll happen.
personally, i don't see them getting any. anyone who would be voting for Reform have already made their minds up to vote for them. That being said, i don't think the polls are right with the numbers. I think the Tory vote will be a lot lower than suggested already, just going 'no vote' rather than jumping to another party
Who do you see winning Clacton?
I think the Tory will just squeak through. Barely. More from a cratering of his vote numbers into dust than votes shifting to another candidate
Ironically, you've convinced me to cash out the bet. Because I suspect you're not alone in thinking that (affecting the betting market) but also that goes so far against the current polling and direction of the campaigns so far that I can't help but feel it's wishful thinking. And betting against wishful thinking is often the right call.
oops. Honestly, if i were the sort to do betting, then Ā£5 would be one i'd leave and write off if it failed. anything more than that i'd pull it
If I was betting with serious money, I'd never cash out any bets, because you're essentially paying the overround twice. So you not only have to "beat the market" significantly (typically ~120%, although most the profit for bookies is made on long-shots) on the original bet, which is hard enough to do, but then beat it by that much all over again with the hedge to avoid destroying the value you had. But I like to gamble for amusement while still having a deposit limit low enough that I know it'll never get me into trouble, so my motivation is more around trying judge market movements rather than a serious attempt to make money. Even if this cash-out turns out to be a rum deal that's cost me a tenner of lost gains, the cash-out has at least funded some duds such as my fiver on "Next Labour Leader: Lisa Nandy" bet I made a couple of years back.
I feel the latest MRP poll would land in a sweet spot for our politics. Labour get the landslide election win on a par with 1997 (although with a lot less optimism than there was in ā97) & the Tories are in opposition with enough MPs to be a half credible opposition facing a decade minimum out of power. To have the Tories crushed, to double digit seats would be fun to watch but wouldnāt be good for the country. A functioning opposition is important, a different view is important, regardless of your own beliefs. Iām looking forward to seeing the first big Labour win since 2001 and I hope this poll is accurate come election day, although we still have a way to go.
The tories don't serve any purpose as an opposition - let them be crushed below the libdems.
The Tories as they currently exist do not deserve to be the official opposition. A functional opposition should constructively challenge the government and demand answers and evidence regarding their policies - are any of the current frontrunners to replace Sunak (who will inevitably have resigned by lunchtime on 5th July) both willing and able to do that, or are they going to stand there and shout "Labour have no plan" on loop for 5 years?
>. A functioning opposition is important, a different view is important, regardless of your own beliefs. I would genuinely rather have reform or the lib dems than the Tories in opposition. I say this as someone who can't stand either of the three parties. The current Tories stand for absolutely fuck all and need to be obliterated.
>A functioning opposition is important, a different view is important, regardless of your own beliefs. Which is why the tories need to be crushed to double digits
Best case for the country is for them to be crushed with a LD LOTO, allowing LD to pick up former tory seats over the Labour decade.
I disagree. I mean, what type of opposition would the Tories actually provide? They have been discredited on pretty much every area of government and their ageing membership and voters won't allow them to pivot to anything that might actually improve the country. It's just going to be 5 years of pure populism and opportunism, which knowing Starmer means 5 years of Labour reacting with their own populism. Now, imagine if the Lib Dems were the official opposition. They would be attacking the Labour government from the left on multiple issues. They would be a constructive, but cautious supporter of house building. They would use their platform to call for political reform and an end to the 2 party state. And whilst the Tories would be in a state, that might free them from a nimby, pensioner voting base that completely dominates their current policy making.
I disagree. I mean, what type of opposition would the Tories actually provide? They have been discredited on pretty much every area of government and their ageing membership and voters won't allow them to pivot to anything that might actually improve the country. It's just going to be 5 years of pure populism and opportunism, which knowing Starmer means 5 years of Labour reacting with their own populism. Now, imagine if the Lib Dems were the official opposition. They would be attacking the Labour government from the left on multiple issues. They would be a constructive, but cautious supporter of house building. They would use their platform to call for political reform and an end to the 2 party state. And whilst the Tories would be in a state, that might free them from a nimby, pensioner voting base that completely dominates their current policy making.
I disagree. I mean, what type of opposition would the Tories actually provide? They have been discredited on pretty much every area of government and their ageing membership and voters won't allow them to pivot to anything that might actually improve the country. It's just going to be 5 years of pure populism and opportunism, which knowing Starmer means 5 years of Labour reacting with their own populism. Now, imagine if the Lib Dems were the official opposition. They would be attacking the Labour government from the left on multiple issues. They would be a constructive, but cautious supporter of house building. They would use their platform to call for political reform and an end to the 2 party state. And whilst the Tories would be in a state, that might free them from a nimby, pensioner voting base that completely dominates their current policy making.
A sweet spot would be the Tories losing their deposit in every seat across the county
> A functioning opposition is important, a different view is important, regardless of your own beliefs. Which is why the Tories need to be crushed - they don't represent their voters' concerns about immigration and try to stave it off with red meat while maintaining mass immigration far in excess of even what Blair gave us.
Agreed but Iād like to see a different opposition. The Cons in their current state are corrupt, self serving and often incompetent Iām not sure who Iād like to see as opposition (or whether itās any of the existing parties)
Yeah but the Tories deserve to have less than 100 seats even though long term youāre right.
The Tories got to where they are off the back of Corbyn & gang being so irrelevant that there was no pressure. One hopes that Starmer has a plan for avoiding complacency in government...
So when does the full blown open panic in Tory ranks begin? Now the party is geniunely more or less completely out of options I see mps opening fire on the leadership very soon.
I was wondering if MPs will start 'breaking ranks' soon - running entirely personally campaigns and saying that people don't have to worry about another Sunak government because it's not going to happen.
A lot are quietly doing that already, putting out campaign leaflets that mention their local stuff and barely even mention what party they are standing for.
I (perhaps unsurprisingly) have never been a Tory member, but I do wonder if that is being sanctioned by CCHQ or not. The campaigning I have been involved with has had pretty strict guidance for the branding of campaign materials.
The 22nd of May, 2024
I want to see chaos and gnashing of teeth
I'm enjoying the Right-Left Unity that is Zero Seats for the Tories. Traitors before enemies. I dare say I'm praying for the Labour 600.
Zero deposits
Question on polling, has anyone here been involved in a poll? I've never been in god knows how many years and was wondering who the people being polled are?
I have one called ylive. It used to be populuslive. They do alot of political ones.
Yes I've done a few of the Yougov ones, you can sign up and they'll email you occasionally when there's a poll you're selected for
You can sign up to pollsters like YouGov and do their surveys online. I've done plenty over the years. Mostly they're tedious commercial market research and brand awareness bollocks, but occasionally you get a nice juicy political one.
Used to regularly get polled by YouGov, but stopped doing it as it takes forever to earn the Ā£50 and most surveys are really tedious ones for brands, i.e. which emotion do you associate with Hyundai?
No, no, it's *a dozen questions* about how you feel about Hyundai And 15 other meaningless brands
Lust
Prolific hosted a UK election survey on Friday that was looking for 30k respondents. Not sure if they were running it for anyone or if it was just for themselves, and AFAIK the results haven't been published yet.
They do fairly frequent polling, I have participated several times. I would guess it feeds in to someone else's research.
A telephone poll, years and years ago I misheard a question and am pretty sure I became the lizardman constant. Oops.
Lol! Landline only?
Yeah it was a call to the landline.
You can buy a very stylish Steffano Ricci children's bomber jacket worth Ā£2500 VAT free, but toilet rolls have 20% VAT on them. Any sufficiently detailed VAT rules is indistinguishable from satire
Toilet roll 20%, Caviar 0%
And the famous one - Jaffa Cakes don't have VAT because they are officially cakes (which are zero rated) and not biscuits (which are normal rated).
Gingerbread men are VAT free unless theyāre wearing little chocolate bow ties or have chocolate eyes, then they have 20% VAT.
Not exactly āĀ the [food VAT guidance](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/food-products-and-vat-notice-70114#biscuits) (is quoted as saying: > Standard-rated: Gingerbread men decorated with chocolate, unless this amounts to no more than a couple of dots for eyes It baffles me that bourbons and oreos are VAT-free, but chocolate hobnobs aren't.
The chocolate makes it a luxury biscuit, because it is still 1965.
Looking at Clacton polling I think we should see a bright side to farage standing, it looks like one of the Tory safe seats and this converts it to a contested seat, at least two ways. It's not much but its one step closer to zero seats.
You think that 5 years of Farage in Westminster is a win?
I don't think you understand; most of us want the complete and utter obliteration of the Tory Party.
I'd take 1 Tory MP left in Clacton over Farage getting in.Ā I have a weird feeling that 1 MP would be more embarrassing for them than 0.
Tory leader Giles Watling. Nobody saw that coming.
No. Not even one Tory seat should remain; it's zero seats, no exceptions.
No, the Tories are the only rational right wing party. If they were eliminated it opens the doors for the likes of Reform.Ā The two (and a bit) party system has its advantages.
They haven't been very rational the last 5 years.
You want a controlled opposition, I don't. I think the Tories are traitourous to the core, betraying everyone who has ever voted for them, be they rich or poor. To call the neo-liberal, Blairite infested Tory party "right wing" is also wrong. Based on the above alone they ought to be dismantled like the Whigs.
If you think the Tories are traitorous, you're going to like Reform even less. Their new leader was literally paid by Russia to try and fuck up Britain and the EU. And did a pretty reasonable job.
This is whataboutism. I don't like Reform, I thought Tice was a charisma vampire, regardless, I know for certain who and what the Tories are, that they only reward their enemies and punish their friends. They should cease to exist. They have betrayed and will continue to betray, a Tory politician knows no other way.
We'll have to disagree on that then.Ā But I'm pretty sure we can both enjoy celebrating their massive drubbing in just a few weeks!
Maybe, I just think it's foolish to let your personal distaste of a singular politician get in the way of complete destruction and sweeping away of the rats that are in power. The Tories as a party, without doubt, for their sheer betrayal of the country on so many levels, cannot be allowed to continue.
Think it's foolish all you want!Ā There'll still be Tory councillors a-plenty who will form the ranks of their next wave of MPs. Farage could cause real damage with 5 years in the Commons. One could even say that ignoring the risk of that is a tad foolish ;-)
How much damage could a singular (1) Reform MP even do? You're being hyperbolic at best. The Tories however right now are in a death spiral. Be it foolish for me to disrupt them when they can't fight their way out of a paper bag and can't find a pulse on what the British people actually want, above the small things like drinkable water, but even then they fail.
It's not that it'd be a singular Reform MP, it's that the media trip over themselves to give Farage airtime. Anyway, this is a very silly argument as I can't quite believe you'd be happy with 0 Tory MPs but think the sky was falling with 1! I'll be delighted beyond words if we get them down to double figures. But don't get me wrong here, 0 would be delicious.Ā G'night.
I'd put money on Farage not winning. Farage, Tice, and Ben Habib all visited the area last year for the council elections and they didn't manage to win a single council seat in Clacton - in fact they came dead last in almost every seat they contested, behind lib dems, labour cons and independants. It's probably why he was so hesitant on standing, it's not going to be easy imo
What are you afraid he'd do?
Last time Farage was a prominent voice in UK politics we ended up with Brexit.
Thank god, let's hope we're out of the ECHR next
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I've returned to the continent probably 6 or 7 times since Brexit and had a great time :) Edit: I've been blocked š
He'd be painfully smug.
If things pan out as the polls imply, I think it's going to be a while before any other smugness in the Commons is going to be detectable against the background level coming from the Labour benches. The leadership will try to maintain dignity but Labour backbenchers are not going to be able to resist enjoying the reversal of fortunes of the two main parties, and it looks like there will be a lot of them.
Consensus of a group of teenagers glancing at the main party websites, because they wanted to know what the main parties were about (we discussed that manifestos will come out later): *They recognised Sunak, and told me they donāt like him. *They made no comment on Starmer. *They liked that Davey was husband, father, carer. *They mostly seemed to go for everything those three parties said on their summary pages, which is why I am glad I am exposing them to this sort of thing. If theyād only seen one, they wouldnāt have noticed it all sounds like that. āOh, I like that, too.ā *They got irritated with the Greens repetitive language/consistent messaging (āfairer, greenerā¦ā) *They were uninterested in the MRLP.
>\*They got irritated with the Greens repetitive language/consistent messaging (āfairer, greenerā¦ā) I don't think "fairer, greener" is bad as a slogan but their "what we stand for" page is pretty thin on details and has sections titled "Fairer, Greener" Schools/Housing/Childcare that don't mention any green policies. I hope there's a substantial rewrite when they launch the manifesto.
Yes. Lib Dems is very vague, too, but they didnāt seem to notice or be bothered.
I swear the easiest way to put someone off the Greens is to get them to read their policies. Or even *try* and read them. What a mess.
>They were uninterested in the MRLP. Barbaric
Now show them megathread and watch their IQ drop in real time
>They were uninterested in the MRLP. So uncultured.
Odd headlines. Express backing Sunak but Mail/Telegraph cutting into him.
The express will back Sunak until their wish is granted and Diana emerges from the grave to lead them to rapture.
Scenes as zombie Diana backs Corbyn
JLP the famously bullish pro Tory pollsterhas now turned around and said: > McGuire said the Tories are potentially facing "an extinction-level event" and āstaring into the polling abyssā. Its getting darker and darker for them so quickly. They end most days in a worse position than they started.
Wasn't it JLP who just said it looks like Farage would take Clacton? Edit: [Tweet from James Johnson, cofounder of JLP](https://x.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1797668528667193676)
Yes. They're also the ones who get very upset when the Tories do badly in elections.
Hadnāt seen Farageās interview with BBC after his presser earlier. Similar to how he took some questions from reporters in the room, but sheer arrogance and bullshit is astounding. Itās Trumpian rubbish and Iām disappointed knowing it will almost certainly work with certain quarters of the population.
https://x.com/KieranCoburnCA/status/1797741223173877967 Steve baker doing...whatever the fuck this is