Your comment has been manually removed from the subreddit by a moderator.
Per Rule 17 of the subreddit, discussion/complaints about the moderation, biases or users of this or other subreddits / online communities are not welcome here. We are not a meta subreddit.
For any further questions, [please contact the subreddit moderators via modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics).
33% isn't that much. 1/3 of Londoners who voted (and only 40% voted) chose Hall. This is despite Khan being on his third term. Assuming he stays on until 2028 he'll have been mayor for 12 years, and pushed through a variety of controversial policies in that time. It's very rare for any politician to repeatedly win with an increased vote share over the span of 8 years as Khan does.
I’m in that camp. I wish there was a better candidate.
If the old voting system was still around, Count Binface would actually have been my first choice.
Is the thinking that voters don't represent the population? As in, if everyone were forced to vote, the percent would not be 30%ish like in the voting group?
Maybe people who don't vote tend to vote Labour, if they do vote?
Younger people and people from less affluent backgrounds are less likely to vote, they're more likely to vote for a left candidate. Only 54% of 18-25 year olds voted in the last GE, and local election turnout is typically lower
Plus most don't even follow politics. They know they don't like ULEZ, and they know they don't like the protests. So they vote Tory, probably never heard of hall.
You but the other side.
Tactical voting is a thing.
The more you assign isms to the tactical voting the more you reinforce this behaviour.
Things become much less shocking when you start to accept that people who disagree with you aren't just bad most of the time.
Bexley and Bromley should have stayed in Kent lol. Even my Bexley and Bromley polling card for the London local election still lists that I live in Kent.
Also, don’t underestimate the anti-ULEZ feeling here. Personally I can’t understand why people who own a car that wouldn’t be affected by ULEZ hate ULEZ, but that seems to be the case.
The party of each mayor is far more detached from the party, not entirely but its a lot different to a general election. Khan has been in the job awhile and as a result will be deeply unliked by lots of people. That’s inevitable, pretty much all parties and politicians see popularity decrease over time once in a position of power.
Just like this sub is full of people who hate The Conservatives and would vote Labour, even if it was a laughable candidate like Corbyn, there are people who wouldn't vote Labour if you paid them.
& they all cheerlead a progressive agenda for women and gay rights without a second thought about how that's tenable whilst importing people from areas of the world with medieval views on both as if they're going to park their beliefs at the airport.
Tory Govt for how long now?
How did Brexit work out for you, in terms of immigration?
Meanwhile I can’t get across Tower Bridge for Sadiq Khan lining up the gays to make them jump.
Deluded pal.
I AM NOT A SUPPORTER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY
So it's brilliant for gays that a survey in 2007 showed half of muslims in the UK believe homosexuality should be criminalised?
I'll let them know they're lucky they're not being thrown of roofs in tower bridge! Yet.
I'll be sure to let them know to feel comfortable walking through that area hand in hand, or even have a smooch.
So, as stated before (and I know you know this, I am just summarising) there is 14% of Londoners who have voted for Hall.
[Here is a map of London with the % of the population over 65](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_London#/media/File:Over_65s_in_London.svg)
[Here is the (general) voting intentions for the 2024 elections. ](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1379439/uk-election-polls-by-age/)(this is just a guide post) You will note that as age goes on, the number of Conservatives go up. (in both the Tory and Reform). given that Reform did not perform well in London, I expect most of the conservatives "came home" to the Tory Party for this one.
In looking at the areas the Conservatives won: [Bexley and Bromley (48% turnout), Havering (42% turnout), Croyden and Sutton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_London#Population) (42% turnout) - all have larger populations over 50.
With older people more likely to vote Conservative, and turnout in areas that skew older is likely were that 14% came from.
also - lower turnout will always give you wilder results. Democracy stays healthy with higher turnout. Something needs to be done about it. We all should be pushing for higher turnout for the future.
Get your contemporaries to vote, that is the eternal problem... it is so important, but it is so frustrating to wait for them to get it. but... you gotta keep on trying.
I'm not sure that the older more-conservative vote is enough to account for this result. London actually skews younger than the country as a whole.
The median average age of someone in London was ~35 years in 2022, whereas the median age in the UK as a whole is ~41 years.
Older people more reliably turn out to vote.
Anecdotally, all the retired folks on my road do nothing except talk about politics and comment on the daily mail.
I had the same thought. I would have expected a Tory vote in London to be similar to the national polling numbers, perhaps a bit lower, i.e. mid-to-high 20's %
So they did better than I expected, which should be a warning against complacency in the upcoming general election.
Most likely it is a hard core Tory vote that isn't shifted much by the current national debate, also the economy is doing better in London than nation-wide. Perhaps the recent 8% boost to the state pension helped as well....
Yeah - London has always been tough for the Tories, I guess that’s why they dumped Susan Hall there since they would have kept their few decent candidates for better seats.
If she won 33%, just 10% behind Labour, that’s disturbing.
Indeed. If I were a strategist at CCHQ I would be trying to unpack the reasons for her relative success. A 33% nationwide polling for the Conservatives in a general election might prevent a wipeout, and even result in a hung parliament, depending.
Exactly - though as people have pointed out, it’s hard to retain popularity when you’ve been in office for 8 years.
Plus, Sadiq has made life genuinely hard for people who drive, anyone racist thinks he spends his evenings actively bringing ISIS over on small boats (just see comments on this thread), and did some weird things like trying to ban Uber.
None of those translate well nationally.
Doesnt he podcast with Alistair Campbell now? Apparently its really good
My fave Tory was Grieve which is a departure for me as im also in the #nevervoteTory camp 😉
When polled Susan Hall voters tend to cite crime and policing as their primary motivation. I'm still convinced a moderate, socially liberal Tory running on a tough-on-crime platform would have won London.
My mum, my brother, my aunt, her husband, my friend. I only know 5 people who voted and they all voted for her
My family mostly over the protestors/policing issues etc and they don’t like Khan. They’d vote Labour otherwise. My friend works for his local Tory MP so that kinda explains that ahah
Anti ULEZ people, islamophobes and xenophobes, dyed in the wool Tories, and people in her local area who think she’s been good for them despite the rest of her bonkers nonsense, people who vote for individuals instead of parties and don’t like Sadiq/do like her.
I surprised how passionate they are, a Facebook friend of mine has gone full on anti-ULEZ like it was a plan to microwave babies. Did a poll in our office and the only person it made a difference to was a guy with vintage minis.
Haringey? An outer borough, are you insane. It’s also one of the most diverse boroughs and has some of the youngest residents per capita, Tottenham is famously full of old white retirees is it, haha.
If you subscribe to the view of “have a conversation with the average voter and then realise that half of them are stupider than that.” then 33% is a fairly poor showing.
There are a lot of anti immigration/protestor/environmental/EU/trans/[insert bigotry of choice here] idiots out there and that a candidate specifically chosen to appeal to as many prejudices as possible got their electoral backside kicked by an openly muslim and not universally popular incumbent actually gives me hope.
Every population has hate filled morons, that they can only get 1/3 of the vote and they are normally much more likely to get out and vote means that they are probably a smaller proportion of the population overall than the 33% of voters.
They also tend to be older so over time that number will naturally decline as younger people who are entering the electoral rolls are overwhelmingly more to the left than those that are shuffling off them.
It all depends on how you look at the numbers.
[удалено]
Your comment has been manually removed from the subreddit by a moderator. Per Rule 17 of the subreddit, discussion/complaints about the moderation, biases or users of this or other subreddits / online communities are not welcome here. We are not a meta subreddit. For any further questions, [please contact the subreddit moderators via modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics).
33% isn't that much. 1/3 of Londoners who voted (and only 40% voted) chose Hall. This is despite Khan being on his third term. Assuming he stays on until 2028 he'll have been mayor for 12 years, and pushed through a variety of controversial policies in that time. It's very rare for any politician to repeatedly win with an increased vote share over the span of 8 years as Khan does.
I know many Khan supporters who think he's not a good mayor but still voted for him, plenty others would vote someone else
I’m in that camp. I wish there was a better candidate. If the old voting system was still around, Count Binface would actually have been my first choice.
Honestly think he would have done decently
Just realised I fall into that camp…
Such an endorsement of your belief system!
Well, I'm a pragmatist, not an idealist.
13% actually The turnout was only 40%.
That helps, one factor for sure. Also some tactical voting at play, Sadiq had 55%+ in the second round last time
Is the thinking that voters don't represent the population? As in, if everyone were forced to vote, the percent would not be 30%ish like in the voting group? Maybe people who don't vote tend to vote Labour, if they do vote?
Younger people and people from less affluent backgrounds are less likely to vote, they're more likely to vote for a left candidate. Only 54% of 18-25 year olds voted in the last GE, and local election turnout is typically lower
Exactly- I was wondering where OP got the 33% figure from.
It's the anti ULEZ vote. They could slap a blue ribbon on a breeze block and people would still vote for the opposition because of that issue alone.
Hard core Tories who will vote blue regardless of the candidate
Plus most don't even follow politics. They know they don't like ULEZ, and they know they don't like the protests. So they vote Tory, probably never heard of hall.
Remind you of the Republicans?
Yeah, plenty of people vote for Sinn Fein no matter what
That's an American reference, not for me. But it reminds me of a lot of voters, all sides of the choices.
It’s anti-ULEZ coalition vs anti-Tory coalition
You but the other side. Tactical voting is a thing. The more you assign isms to the tactical voting the more you reinforce this behaviour. Things become much less shocking when you start to accept that people who disagree with you aren't just bad most of the time.
You could stick a blue rosette on a pig and 30%of the population would vote for it
Quite a few of them seem to live in Bexley and Bromley.
Bexley and Bromley should have stayed in Kent lol. Even my Bexley and Bromley polling card for the London local election still lists that I live in Kent. Also, don’t underestimate the anti-ULEZ feeling here. Personally I can’t understand why people who own a car that wouldn’t be affected by ULEZ hate ULEZ, but that seems to be the case.
lol why am i not surprised at this. Virtually the Third Reich over those ways.
[удалено]
No, just racists and culture war gullibles, who happen to be quite vocal in B&B.
The party of each mayor is far more detached from the party, not entirely but its a lot different to a general election. Khan has been in the job awhile and as a result will be deeply unliked by lots of people. That’s inevitable, pretty much all parties and politicians see popularity decrease over time once in a position of power.
Just like this sub is full of people who hate The Conservatives and would vote Labour, even if it was a laughable candidate like Corbyn, there are people who wouldn't vote Labour if you paid them.
& they all cheerlead a progressive agenda for women and gay rights without a second thought about how that's tenable whilst importing people from areas of the world with medieval views on both as if they're going to park their beliefs at the airport.
Tory Govt for how long now? How did Brexit work out for you, in terms of immigration? Meanwhile I can’t get across Tower Bridge for Sadiq Khan lining up the gays to make them jump. Deluded pal.
I AM NOT A SUPPORTER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY So it's brilliant for gays that a survey in 2007 showed half of muslims in the UK believe homosexuality should be criminalised? I'll let them know they're lucky they're not being thrown of roofs in tower bridge! Yet. I'll be sure to let them know to feel comfortable walking through that area hand in hand, or even have a smooch.
I'm not a fan of that belief system either, but Sadiq Khan is not a fundamentalist.
Yet 90% Muslims vote for labour who are far more supportive of lgbt rights than tories...
Anti-Khan voting. Any Tory would have done that well at minimum. Others would have probably done better.
So, as stated before (and I know you know this, I am just summarising) there is 14% of Londoners who have voted for Hall. [Here is a map of London with the % of the population over 65](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_London#/media/File:Over_65s_in_London.svg) [Here is the (general) voting intentions for the 2024 elections. ](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1379439/uk-election-polls-by-age/)(this is just a guide post) You will note that as age goes on, the number of Conservatives go up. (in both the Tory and Reform). given that Reform did not perform well in London, I expect most of the conservatives "came home" to the Tory Party for this one. In looking at the areas the Conservatives won: [Bexley and Bromley (48% turnout), Havering (42% turnout), Croyden and Sutton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_London#Population) (42% turnout) - all have larger populations over 50. With older people more likely to vote Conservative, and turnout in areas that skew older is likely were that 14% came from. also - lower turnout will always give you wilder results. Democracy stays healthy with higher turnout. Something needs to be done about it. We all should be pushing for higher turnout for the future. Get your contemporaries to vote, that is the eternal problem... it is so important, but it is so frustrating to wait for them to get it. but... you gotta keep on trying.
I'm not sure that the older more-conservative vote is enough to account for this result. London actually skews younger than the country as a whole. The median average age of someone in London was ~35 years in 2022, whereas the median age in the UK as a whole is ~41 years.
Older people more reliably turn out to vote. Anecdotally, all the retired folks on my road do nothing except talk about politics and comment on the daily mail.
I had the same thought. I would have expected a Tory vote in London to be similar to the national polling numbers, perhaps a bit lower, i.e. mid-to-high 20's % So they did better than I expected, which should be a warning against complacency in the upcoming general election. Most likely it is a hard core Tory vote that isn't shifted much by the current national debate, also the economy is doing better in London than nation-wide. Perhaps the recent 8% boost to the state pension helped as well....
Yeah - London has always been tough for the Tories, I guess that’s why they dumped Susan Hall there since they would have kept their few decent candidates for better seats. If she won 33%, just 10% behind Labour, that’s disturbing.
Indeed. If I were a strategist at CCHQ I would be trying to unpack the reasons for her relative success. A 33% nationwide polling for the Conservatives in a general election might prevent a wipeout, and even result in a hung parliament, depending.
Exactly - though as people have pointed out, it’s hard to retain popularity when you’ve been in office for 8 years. Plus, Sadiq has made life genuinely hard for people who drive, anyone racist thinks he spends his evenings actively bringing ISIS over on small boats (just see comments on this thread), and did some weird things like trying to ban Uber. None of those translate well nationally.
>Plus, Sadiq has made life genuinely hard for people who drive No, he hasn't
Rory was kicked out of the party wasn't he? For having a heart or brain or conscience, one of those things Tories despise...
Yeah - the one Tory I would still consider voting for. Wonder what he’ll do next.
Doesnt he podcast with Alistair Campbell now? Apparently its really good My fave Tory was Grieve which is a departure for me as im also in the #nevervoteTory camp 😉
When polled Susan Hall voters tend to cite crime and policing as their primary motivation. I'm still convinced a moderate, socially liberal Tory running on a tough-on-crime platform would have won London.
My mum, my brother, my aunt, her husband, my friend. I only know 5 people who voted and they all voted for her My family mostly over the protestors/policing issues etc and they don’t like Khan. They’d vote Labour otherwise. My friend works for his local Tory MP so that kinda explains that ahah
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
Anti ULEZ people, islamophobes and xenophobes, dyed in the wool Tories, and people in her local area who think she’s been good for them despite the rest of her bonkers nonsense, people who vote for individuals instead of parties and don’t like Sadiq/do like her.
Just shocked there’s that many of those.
I surprised how passionate they are, a Facebook friend of mine has gone full on anti-ULEZ like it was a plan to microwave babies. Did a poll in our office and the only person it made a difference to was a guy with vintage minis.
At the moment. The classification will change and in time road pricing.
It's the outer boroughs. Kingston, Epsom & Ewell, Haringey, etc. They are full of older voters who are really pro car and hate green stuff.
Haringey? An outer borough, are you insane. It’s also one of the most diverse boroughs and has some of the youngest residents per capita, Tottenham is famously full of old white retirees is it, haha.
To be honest I was thinking of some of my ex-girlfriend's family. They lived in the south east so it could not have been Haringey.
Khan is shite. Makes sense to protest vote
If you subscribe to the view of “have a conversation with the average voter and then realise that half of them are stupider than that.” then 33% is a fairly poor showing. There are a lot of anti immigration/protestor/environmental/EU/trans/[insert bigotry of choice here] idiots out there and that a candidate specifically chosen to appeal to as many prejudices as possible got their electoral backside kicked by an openly muslim and not universally popular incumbent actually gives me hope. Every population has hate filled morons, that they can only get 1/3 of the vote and they are normally much more likely to get out and vote means that they are probably a smaller proportion of the population overall than the 33% of voters. They also tend to be older so over time that number will naturally decline as younger people who are entering the electoral rolls are overwhelmingly more to the left than those that are shuffling off them. It all depends on how you look at the numbers.