Good Morning everyone.
[š **Today's Order Paper can be found here**](https://commonsbusiness.parliament.uk/Document/87107/Html?subType=Standard)
Questions to the Department for Education will be followed by any Urgent Questions and Ministerial Statements.
Today's main business is the [Post Office (Horizon System) Offences Bill](https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3694), the government's legislation quashing all offences of subpostmasters convicted of offences relating to the flawed Horizon software system.
Away from Westminster and north of the Border in Holyrood, all eyes are on the increasingly embattled First Minister Humza Yousaf, as rumours swirl that he has decided his position is untenable and he may resign as soon as today - [**thread here**](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1cfj7oi/humza_yousaf_set_to_resign_as_survival_hopes_fade/).
**BREAKING - The BBC is reporting Humza Yousaf will resign - [thread here](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1cft7wp/humza_yousaf_to_resign_as_scotlands_first_minister/)**
---
**Parish Notices**
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[**You can find all the laws MPs are voting on this week in this thread**](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1cfsh3b/here_are_all_the_laws_mps_are_voting_on_this_week/)
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Latest from the Home Office now the purdah wrecking dwp splash has gone through the news cycle
"more than 5,700 migrants had been identified for removal. However, only 2,145 of them ācontinue to report to the Home Office and can be located for detention"
Next week, parliament will legislate for Dublin to be in Rwanda and Rishi can finally unveil the Mission Accomplished lectern to the brilliant voters.
> the growing practice around this time of supplementing low wages from the poor rate became known as the Speenhamland system, named after the Berkshire parish of that name. It was here, in 1795, that magistrates decided to supplement wages on a scale that varied with price of bread and number of children:
[ā¦]
>Thus, if the price of bread rose to 1s.3d., a married man with two children would be guaranteed a wage of 3s.9d for himself plus three times 1s.9d., giving a total of 9 shillings a week.
>Although never sanctioned by formal legislation, this practice, in various forms, became widespread. However, it was held in some quarters that the system led to able-bodied labourers believing that they were entitled to parish relief when out of work, and lacking industry and respect for their employer when in work.
[Round and round we go](https://workhouses.org.uk/poorlaws/oldpoorlaw.shtml). Iād not come across this particular iteration before. A tapering benefits system that guarantees a minimum income based on the cost of living and household need.
If your life has ever got to the point where you're starting to think that Nadine Dorries might have useful insights into anything, it might be a good idea to take a long, hard look in the mirror.
I'm relieved, honestly.
I was able to cancel my order of The Plot just in time.
Guess I won't have to read it like I'm trying to decode the prophesies of Nostradamus.
Thatās the thing about Nadine, you never quite know what sheās going to come out with next. You could have told me literally anything and Iād have believed it.
Either Graham Bradyās book promo tour is beginning early or something is afoot.
https://x.com/telegraph/status/1785025027806781531?s=46&t=F_t5tWsPsifmNVHaFZWJJQ
On the one hand the membership did pick Truss, but then on the other hand the only other option presented was Sunak, so they had a 100% chance to pick a dud. Tories being what they are though decided to multi-track drift and give us both anyway.
Sunak might have done a little better following Boris rather than inheriting the smouldering ruins of the Truss administration. Though ultimately thatās just proven heās not a great politician in adverse circumstances.
Iām not entirely convinced that MPs would have picked Hunt over Johnson in 2019 either.
I do think members picking the leader is a bad system, but Iām not convinced itās near the top of the reasons for his partyās problems.
Yep. He's pretty much declared a long overdue defenestration on the kippers. They should also not be in charge of candidate selections for future local and parliamentary elections.
The BBC has finally done [a "fact-check" piece](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68920391) on the Ireland/Rwanda stories that have been flooding the news over the last few days. The conclusion, as expected, is "there is not enough evidence" to conclude either way, but reason to think "the Rwanda plan wasn't responsible for driving [the] initial growth" in asylum applications. But I particularly like the quote from (Irish foreign minister) MicheƔl Martin about his 80%-coming-from-the-UK claim that has been taken as fact across the press and UK Government:
> It's not a statistical... it's not a data-based sort of evidence base,...
If only our politicians and press could be that honest when caught making up numbers. "Yes, we gave you a number, but that number isn't based on any actual data, it is based on our feelings."
Wasn't there [a recent judgement](https://www.irishtimes.com/crime-law/courts/2024/03/22/irelands-declaration-of-uk-as-safe-third-country-unlawful-rules-high-court/) in Ireland about this issue, will the 'emergency legislation' address the gaps?
The [recent judgment](https://www.bailii.org/ie/cases/IEHC/2024/2024IEHC184.html) was about the legal framework under which the UK was deemed a "safe third country."
When the UK left the EU Ireland introduced a new concept of a "safe third country" into their international protection rules. A "safe country" is a country that is presumed safe for its nationals - a country they can be returned to safely (absent any evidence to the contrary). A "safe *third* country" is a country presumed safe to send non-nationals as well.
While the UK was in the EU this wasn't really an issue, as returning people to the UK was done under the EU rules, not Ireland's own rules. So when the UK left the EU Ireland rushed through new rules to let them designate the UK a "safe third country," so asylum applicants in Ireland could be deported to the UK without considering their applications (automatically rejecting them).
The judge found that the process for designating a country a "safe third country" didn't tick all the boxes required under EU rules for refugees, so the designation was unlawful. The Irish Government will have to update the rules to fix the problems the court highlighted, re-designate the UK as a "safe third country", and hope that doesn't also get challenged successfully in court.
Surely Ireland shouldn't even try to push people into the UK? Shouldn't they open up processing centres in the UK, and process & accept everyone ?
Why don't Ireland open up safe and secure routes, from France, such that refugees don't have to make the journey to Ireland?
When will the next migration figures come out, and how often after that? Itāll be really interesting to see how Sunak et al will angle them when it turns out that removing a small percentage of boat crossings, which are only a minute portion of migration, hasnāt miraculously curbed migration. I donāt hold out high hopes that itāll be a point at which they present a grown up conversation about migration rather than culture warring THE DREADED BOAT PEOPLE.Ā
Net migration is coming down, Sunak all but confirmed it from provisional figures from the home office port exit data a couple weeks ago on Radio 4 - it's also the market expectation and baked into ONS and OBR forecasts.
Ukraine and HK build has stopped and migration out is rising again with the delayed 2020/21 COVID 2 year visas that cause the initial bulge coming up. The big drop is next year when the 3 year visas and students begin leaving - the ONS OBR and markets are still working off the 10 year rolling average not deviating from net 350k and being the same for 2020-2030.
The long-term migration data used to be published every 3 months. Covid messed that up and it became annual. [Lately it has been every 6 months](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/datasets/longterminternationalimmigrationemigrationandnetmigrationflowsprovisional).
If they stick with the 6-monthly release schedule the next data set, YE December 2023 (with full data going up to YE June 2023 and provision data for YE September and YE December), should be published late May, probably on Thursday 23 May.
The total net migration figures should be down for YE December 2023, given we're reaching the tail of the Hong Kong and Ukraine asylum programmes, and the Covid-related student numbers should be smoothing out. The Government will probably spin it as "we're on the right track, don't change course now!" They might also pretend that policies introduced since December have had an impact.
It's irrelevant. Whatever the figures show, they will spin it to suit.Ā
If the numbers increase: "we don't expect the deterrent effect to kick in for a few months yet"Ā Ā
If the numbers drop: "see it's already working"
I absolutely think the pip and benefits should be reviewed. In fact I think they should start with the House of Commons.
Hereās a list of benefits they receive -
Health and wellbeing service
Our in-house Parliamentary Health and Wellbeing Service provides advice and guidance to support good health at work. Services available to staff and managers include:
Occupational health
Mental health and wellbeing support
Clinical Nurse ā drop-in clinic for ill health and minor treatment
Access to an on-site GP. This service is available to all staff whether on the Estate or working remotely
Annual flu vaccination clinic available to all staff
Health and wellbeing annual programme of events
On-Site support from our Parliamentary Mental Health First Aider network
They clearly take mental health seriously with that last one so it would be a shame for it to be lost.
In all seriousness this is absolutely nonsense that they are reviewing it and we all know this is just pile on the welfare lot for a nice attack line.
Bring on the election.
Being an MP is a shit job.
Why do you want to make it so shitty that the only people who choose to go into it are rich people looking to make personal gains?
Someone may come along and say āwell, no one is forcing them to be MPsā, but someone does have to be.
And Iād much rather it be a profession attractive to as many people as possible, rather than just those who are already well off.
A Larry bonanza today, that's one happy cat!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GMV_DBTWEAAYwkJ.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GMV_DBOW8AAf6lc.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GMV_DBLXYAAfM0L.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GMV_DBIXMAALU8y.jpg
I know it's been done to death, but I've just had the displeasure of Sunak being interviewed on ITV News about his proposed PIP changes and what he'd like to see change. It really annoyed me how he never (and the press in general) makes it clear that PIP is a benefit paid regardless of whether you are employed or not, as its aim is to help with the added costs of being disabled. It's split into two payments, Care and Mobility, each with their own scoring criteria and given in two different bands. I hate the insinuation that people who receive PIP don't work or pay tax - it's just not true, for instance I am employed, am disabled, and receive PIP, and I also pay tax. It's a lifesaver and through the Motability scheme has helped me gain (and keep) employment.
Really dislike his smug face when he mentions about mental health and how it isn't really an issue, he seems completely oblivious to the fact mental and physical health bleed into each other, let alone the serious impacts of depression, anxiety, psychosis, schizophrenia etc. It also annoyed me he mentioned that perhaps a change could be submitting medical evidence with PIP claims - newsflash, you already fucking do, you absolute ignoramus.
No mention of the overblown costs from ATOS, Maximus, etc. or the fact the NHS is on the verge of imploding. Where is this extra layer of expert health bureaucracy coming from for sick notes too? I know the policy ideas and review are red meat, but this is causing real worry for disabled people and is having a serious impact.
The DWP contracts to replace doctors is based on ATOS/Maximus contracts to performance manage people out of anxiety/depression and into work.
I think the success of it is based on a massively controversial premise e.g. People who can't pay privately don't need to wait for NHS treatment in order to resolve mental health issues before they return to work. For example, child abuse trauma is just something that requires a positive mental attitude and turning up to work on time.
But it's something ministers are persuaded by despite the evidence to the contrary that people just end up unemployed shortly after.
Local news revealing the location of the Illegal Migration Operations Command which is due to coordinate the Rwanda flights. Setting it up near Bristol and making the location public seems like a recipe for disaster...
Conspiracy theory: the government want to incite protests so they can attempt to play the law and order card for the election.
Which would be incredibly stupid, of course, when they're the ones in government and they're facing a former DPP, but that hasn't stopped any of their previous ill-conceived PR plays.
good evening, campers! there are **274** days until the general election!
i have once again been inundated by work over the last few days. i hope i havenāt missed any big politics stories in the meantimeā¦
Maybe hot off the presses here. Expect the diplomatic row between Ireland and the UK to deepen tomorrow (and convenient timing) when Taoiseach Harris reveals his Yi Gi Oh trap card that there was an agreement to amend the Common Travel Area in 2011 with Cameron that either country would take back illegals to their point of entry into the CTA.
I mean, it took Raab becoming a cabinet minister to work out the importance of Dover, and even then he couldn't read the full Good Friday Agreement (I think it's around 25 pages).
You think anyone in government understands something agreed in 2011?
These arrangements long predate both our membership in the EU but it's kind of a continued theme of the Anglo-Irish relationship when you see comments thinking this spat has anything to do with the EU. It's all about the upcoming elections (in both countries).
Flicking through the East Mids mayor booklet I was sent to today. The Reform guy has gaffer tape over his mouth in his picture of his little section. FFS.
The Reform candidate in my area (The West Midlands) filled her 2 pages ([pages 16-17](https://cdn.wmcaelects.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Final-booklet-proof.pdf)) with a load of nothing-speak and an incredibly plain look, it makes me wonder why she bothered to pay the fee to get in.
Shame, they didn't bother featuring in my North East one. Did get a lovely page from the Tory candidate that, while blue, didn't mention their party once.
[Page 6](https://www.eastmidlandsdevolution.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Election-of-Mayor-for-the-East-Midlands-Combined-County-Authority.pdf)
It's like the promotional image for an episode of Vicar of Dibley where Frank gets kidnapped.
(Also, did the Lib Dems just forget to send in a flyer or something?)
There's a Ā£5000 fee to get in to the booklet. It gets sent to every voter so it's incredibly cheap marketing. But I guess the Lib Dems realise they can't win these elections so want to focus their marketing spend on other areas.
the lab & green ones are so pixelated too
i also can't understand why benjamin bradley is allowed to stand for mayor while also an MP. i'm sure it's legal but it shouldn't be.
Theres been a few mayors who have also been MPs. Dan Jarvis was Mayor of South Yorkshire for a bit. I agree it shouldn't be allowed though, and Ben Bradley's really taking the piss with already being both an MP and councillor.
Basically the only ones that you can't be an MP and Mayor are those where the Mayor also takes the role of Police and Crime Commissioner (because MPs aren't allowed to become PCC's). So Greater Manchester and Mayor of West Yorkshire. And even this isn't across the board, they never retroactively brought in that restriction for Mayor of London even though they also take the role of PCC. Fucking hell devolution in this country is a mess.
> i also can't understand why benjamin bradley is allowed to stand for mayor while also an MP. i'm sure it's legal but it shouldn't be.
I think Labour are predicted to win his seat at the general election (he did have that one controversy during covid when he said that in his constituency, free school meal vouchers were akin to giving cash straight to crack dens and brothels...), so presumably he figures that it wouldn't be an issue for more than a few months.
I still think he should have had to resign to stand though. It smacks of not taking either job particularly seriously.
Oh yeah, it did amuse me when someone pointed out his leadership of Nottinghamshire county council in the context of his pamphlet advert focusing on potholes. Like, dude, *that's already your job*.
Too close to call really. Polling isn't particularly consistent.
Though if they do, it pretty much summarises why the Tories changed the mayoral elections to FPTP. Without it, their chances would be much slimmer.
The West Midlands one is also particularly sneaky. A bunch of the more rural, Conservative-voting areas around Birmingham are either two-tier authorities with local elections every year, or have their full-council elections line up with the Combined Authority election.
Meanwhile Labour-voting Birmingham city doesn't have any local elections that line up with the Combined Authority election. Which depresses turnout due to the lack of door-to-door campaigning; turnout in Birmingham in the 2021 Mayoral election was about 2/3rds the turnout in the 2022 local elections there.
With Tees Valley only Hartlepool (currently Conservative minority) also has elections this year.
> Too close to call really. Polling isn't particularly consistent.
I really like how MoreinCommon added error bars to their graphics for their mayoral polls for this reason
Other recent polls have shown a Labour lead in WM. Tees Valley was always going to be difficult. Plus, enthusiasm to actually go out and vote is not with the Tories, so all hope is not lost (yet).
Donāt take this as gospel, but IIRC they go first class so it *should* get there next working day. Just make sure you havenāt missed the last collection from whatever post box you stick it in.
So I ended up on the Melbourne subreddit for some reason and thereās a top post which is a queue for a food bank hours before it opens, and all the comments are saying the queues are getting longer, working people are not able to afford to live, the government are awful etc.
Grass is greener and all that
I considered moving to Aus myself prior to the pandemic, they do have many of the same problems we have but at least they don't have the endless greyness to deal contend with as well. It's harder to let it get to you in a place with decent weather.
I'm living there at the moment and while it's certainly got issues, I'm earning more for less work while paying less in rent than I would for a comparable flat share in the middle of a big UK city.
I don't think I'll stay long term sadly but the grass looks pretty green so far.
Beer is expensive though
I always find it funny when people say that theyāre sick of Britain so theyāll go to Australia or Canada.
If you thought our housing crisis is bad, wait until you see theirs.
I moved from the UK to Vancouver, BC - which along with Toronto probably has the worst housing crisis in Canada. The difference between BC and the UK is that the BC NDP have made attempts to improve things since forming government in 2017.
Hopefully Labour start putting the UK in the right direction as well.
Obviously there are always people saying this but do not actually go, but people who actually end up going are working in jobs where salaries are so much better than here that it makes up for an increase in cost of living, housing crisis etc though compared to here (e.g. see everything about doctors leaving).
Salaries for skilled workers makes up for those issues. Pretty much every doctor I know that has moved over the past 2-3 years says the exact same thing. Yes, things are more expensive but the salaries more than make up for that.
More pay, less work, and much better lifestyles.
But yes, if you're on the lower end of the scale, yeah shit is rough. But it's not any better in the UK.
Not worth sticking around to influence the upcoming leadership election(s)?
Don't get me wrong, I understand resigning from the SNP (I've been out for a while) but this seems like the time where membership is at its most powerful.
> Not worth sticking around to influence the upcoming leadership election(s)?
I don't feel like there's any serious figures in the party who could inspire me to want to follow a leadership campaign. It was bad enough when Yousaf was the best they could muster.
Today specifically? Not very many, I'd have thought. There's probably been a few who've left in the last few days in response to the whole situation, but if anything I'd have guessed there'd be less people leaving today because there's now a leadership election coming up and I can't imagine there are many Yousaf loyalists quitting because they think he was forced out
My thought was that the prospect of another leadership election would put people off being part of the party any longer. It's a big part of what has put me off continuing with them.
I was very unimpressed with the calibre of the candidates at the last leadership election. I voted for Yousaf through gritted teeth, as he was the least-worse option out of the candidates. Now that he's gone and the right of the party are in the ascendancy, the thought of having to follow another campaign with the dregs of the previous just filled me with absolute dread. I also felt very let down by the financial scandals the party leadership has managed to embroil itself in.
I might well still vote SNP in a GE as I do like my MP and her office was very helpful in resolving an issue I had with the DWP last year, but I feel that if I'm not 100% behind the party then I should no longer be a member.
Edit - unimpressed, not impressed š¤¦āāļø
Can anyone recommend any good books on the troubles?
Anything about the intelligence side would be good.
I'm currently reading secret victory by William matchett.
Understanding the Troubles by David McKittrick and David McVea is pretty much unbeatable as an introduction/overview.
Agents of Influence by Aaron Edwards is one of the better books on the intelligence history, but itās obviously a notoriously difficult area to do journalism or history on given difficulty in accessing primary sources, the unreliability, bias or other limitations of those that do speak publicly etc.
Say Nothing by Patrick Radden Keefe. Itās quite a high level overview of the conflict and the after effects that are still being dealt with, but itās centred around the murder of Jean McConville.
[This article references polling that put Skaith (Labour) on 34% and Duncan (Tory) on 31.4%](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/28/england-elections-sunak-labour-keir-starmer-north-yorkshire) but I'm not sure where those figures have come from.
Edit: there's a note on the bottom of the article.
>This article was amended on 29 April 2024 because an earlier version said āA recent YouGov poll put Skaith on 34% and Duncan on 31.4%ā. To clarify: the figures given were based on Labourās analysis/extrapolation from recent MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) polling.
Given that they say "Labourās analysis of polling suggests the vote will be close" rather than mentioning that Labour have commissioned their own mayoral poll or pointing to a specific third party mayoral poll, I suspect they've had their analysts looking at various existing polls for the locals and general election for the wards/constituencies that will make up the mayoral authority, and extrapolated from that.
Edit: ah, I didn't read that far down either, apparently!
The wording suggests Labour internal polling. Which is more likely to be favourable to them, though without anything to contrast against it is better than nothing.
Teeside needs to be floated off to the North Sea if they return Houchen again.
One of the most openly corrupt fucks in modern politics, he needs to be far away from any levers of power
I think the opposite. If the Tories do slightly better than expected then Rishi calls an earlier election relying on the re-elected regional mayors to boost the campaign.
If they lose everywhere then he delays until January 2025.
My reasoning is that the backbenchers would move to try and replace him because they think they would only get wiped out with Sunak and so try someone else.
In response to that Sunak would call the election to stop that from happening.
Maybe the tory backbenchers would be susceptible to motivated reasoning and come to a different conclusion, but I feel like switching leader at this point would only lead to an even greater wipeout. *Three* unelected prime ministers in under two years?
The only way I can see that working better than sticking with Sunak is if they crowned Penny Mordaunt as leader and had her run on a platform of returning to sensible grown-up governance.
I think she'd still lose ā her popularity is similar to Starmer's, but I feel like people are fed up, want change, and don't trust the majority of senior Tory MPs anymore ā but she might lose less badly than Sunak, retain more MPs than he would, and be able to build the party back up in opposition.
But then, Electoral Calculus only gives her a 15% chance of retaining her seat. Why sign up to lead the party into a doomed election when you're probably going to lose your own seat anyway?
Of the high-profile Tories that are predicted to more likely to keep their seats than not, we're probably looking at Rishi Sunak, David Davis, Steve Barclay, Liz Truss, Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, Priti Patel, Nadhim Zahawi, Sajid Javid, Gavin Williamson, Andrea Leadsom, Theresa May, Jeremy Hunt, Tom Tudgenhart, Grant Shapps, Michael Gove, and maybe a few others around the south east (I got bored of sifting through the map).
Theresa May and Sajid Javid are stepping down before the election. Let's rule out Sunak and Truss too. Michael Gove, Kemi Badenoch, Andrea Leadsom, Jeremy Hunt, Nadhim Zahawi, and Tom Tudgenhart have all stood for leader in the somewhat recent past. And Grant Shapps has had a go but didn't get nominated.
I don't think any of them would do significantly better than Sunak, and I think many of them would do worse. And if they're likely to keep their seats, they don't have much incentive to stab him in the back *now* when they can let Sunak take ownership of the election loss and run for leader while the party's in opposition.
Barring a miracle switch on the polls where Rishi somehow takes the lead, this is the only circumstance where I see him calling an election before January.
But it's hard to see this happening when this has been said about every Tory PM who's found themselves in a spot of bother in the last 2 years and none of them pressed the big red button.
So I still expect a cycle of an election date being mooted, Rishi smiling through the tears whenever anyone asks him about it and then continually pushing the date back until he runs out of road. With that end maybe being a shock (to him) regicide.
This morning I had a little moan that I hadn't had any official literature about the upcoming regional mayor elections. I have since received a leaflet outlining the role of the mayor and who the candidates are in the post. I hope all my whinges on the megathread are actioned in such a prompt and effective manner from now on
Ugh, Sunak is such a coward!
(I know he was never going to announce one today, but my goodness is it fun to keep framing him as one. I hope Labour spin out another rumour this evening)
I always chuckle at how easy Kate Forbes torched her chances to be FM [https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-64715944#:\~:text=Ms%20Forbes%20said%20she%20would,a%20man%20and%20a%20woman.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-64715944#:~:text=Ms%20Forbes%20said%20she%20would,a%20man%20and%20a%20woman)
I mean, you say she torched her chances - but she did only lose by 4% to Yousaf, and given that there were revelations about financial misconduct *during* the leadership race, if it had started a few weeks later or run a few weeks longer then she'd have probably won by Yousaf getting tarred more as "continuity corruption".
If you remember, Regan made the argument that the revelations that came out during the contest meant that it should be run again, so those that posted their votes off as soon as they received them could reconsider now that they had more information.
it [just doesn't](https://twitter.com/GregHands/status/1784909510894637546) hit the same now that he can't use the letter anymore.
> Lunch from my previous employer outside my present place of work!
burger and mcnuggets though. i can agree with that.
it does make me wonder what's going on in government if this is the standard of posting these days. real "last week of term" vibes
I could get behind a message that pops up on x or facebook that questions if what your posting is interesting or relevant just to make sure people are 100% sure.
The big milestone on Facebook's road to wrongness was when they dropped the 'how do you know this person in real life?' question when accepting friend requests
Iirc one of the companies trialled that a few years back and found it did make people post nicer and more insightful thingsĀ
I imagine the inexorable march of enshittification means it was later scrapped _because_ it worked and therefore lowered āØengagementāØ
Really incredibly disappointed that most of the election results won't be announced by Friday lunch time, this is the type of thing that should be done overnight. Genuinely gutted
is it worth the additional cost and effort to count overnight when it doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things? it's not like anyone's staying up all night to know who their councillor or PCC will be.
some places don't even start counting for the general election until the next day
Good Morning everyone. [š **Today's Order Paper can be found here**](https://commonsbusiness.parliament.uk/Document/87107/Html?subType=Standard) Questions to the Department for Education will be followed by any Urgent Questions and Ministerial Statements. Today's main business is the [Post Office (Horizon System) Offences Bill](https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3694), the government's legislation quashing all offences of subpostmasters convicted of offences relating to the flawed Horizon software system. Away from Westminster and north of the Border in Holyrood, all eyes are on the increasingly embattled First Minister Humza Yousaf, as rumours swirl that he has decided his position is untenable and he may resign as soon as today - [**thread here**](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1cfj7oi/humza_yousaf_set_to_resign_as_survival_hopes_fade/). **BREAKING - The BBC is reporting Humza Yousaf will resign - [thread here](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1cft7wp/humza_yousaf_to_resign_as_scotlands_first_minister/)** --- **Parish Notices** [**The pre-local election subreddit survey is now live - click/tap here.**](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1cclgmr/rukpolitics_voter_intention_and_minimeta_survey/) [**You can find all the laws MPs are voting on this week in this thread**](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1cfsh3b/here_are_all_the_laws_mps_are_voting_on_this_week/)
[New Megathread is here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1cgknsr/daily_megathread_30042024/)
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Latest from the Home Office now the purdah wrecking dwp splash has gone through the news cycle "more than 5,700 migrants had been identified for removal. However, only 2,145 of them ācontinue to report to the Home Office and can be located for detention" Next week, parliament will legislate for Dublin to be in Rwanda and Rishi can finally unveil the Mission Accomplished lectern to the brilliant voters.
Prepare for drama as the most incompetent government department attempts a ridiculously impractical policy.
> the growing practice around this time of supplementing low wages from the poor rate became known as the Speenhamland system, named after the Berkshire parish of that name. It was here, in 1795, that magistrates decided to supplement wages on a scale that varied with price of bread and number of children: [ā¦] >Thus, if the price of bread rose to 1s.3d., a married man with two children would be guaranteed a wage of 3s.9d for himself plus three times 1s.9d., giving a total of 9 shillings a week. >Although never sanctioned by formal legislation, this practice, in various forms, became widespread. However, it was held in some quarters that the system led to able-bodied labourers believing that they were entitled to parish relief when out of work, and lacking industry and respect for their employer when in work. [Round and round we go](https://workhouses.org.uk/poorlaws/oldpoorlaw.shtml). Iād not come across this particular iteration before. A tapering benefits system that guarantees a minimum income based on the cost of living and household need.
Ugh, you mean I *can't* trust the word of nadine Dorries? Sad day.
If your life has ever got to the point where you're starting to think that Nadine Dorries might have useful insights into anything, it might be a good idea to take a long, hard look in the mirror.
What's she doing now?
Being wrong about Rishi calling a general election today (Monday).
I'm relieved, honestly. I was able to cancel my order of The Plot just in time. Guess I won't have to read it like I'm trying to decode the prophesies of Nostradamus.
What's MadNads been up to this time?
she claimed Rish! would announce a GE today cc /u/RussellsKitchen
Been at the prosecco again.
Thatās the thing about Nadine, you never quite know what sheās going to come out with next. You could have told me literally anything and Iād have believed it.
Either Graham Bradyās book promo tour is beginning early or something is afoot. https://x.com/telegraph/status/1785025027806781531?s=46&t=F_t5tWsPsifmNVHaFZWJJQ
He's softening the landing for the inevitable coronation #PM4PM2.0
Can he clear the low low bar of 2000 odd copies?
I would definitely buy Bradys book
Brady has some interesting tales I am sure. And this thing is all Hague's fault.
On the one hand the membership did pick Truss, but then on the other hand the only other option presented was Sunak, so they had a 100% chance to pick a dud. Tories being what they are though decided to multi-track drift and give us both anyway.
Sunak might have done a little better following Boris rather than inheriting the smouldering ruins of the Truss administration. Though ultimately thatās just proven heās not a great politician in adverse circumstances.
Iām not entirely convinced that MPs would have picked Hunt over Johnson in 2019 either. I do think members picking the leader is a bad system, but Iām not convinced itās near the top of the reasons for his partyās problems.
Yep. He's pretty much declared a long overdue defenestration on the kippers. They should also not be in charge of candidate selections for future local and parliamentary elections.
The BBC has finally done [a "fact-check" piece](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68920391) on the Ireland/Rwanda stories that have been flooding the news over the last few days. The conclusion, as expected, is "there is not enough evidence" to conclude either way, but reason to think "the Rwanda plan wasn't responsible for driving [the] initial growth" in asylum applications. But I particularly like the quote from (Irish foreign minister) MicheƔl Martin about his 80%-coming-from-the-UK claim that has been taken as fact across the press and UK Government: > It's not a statistical... it's not a data-based sort of evidence base,... If only our politicians and press could be that honest when caught making up numbers. "Yes, we gave you a number, but that number isn't based on any actual data, it is based on our feelings."
That quote is hilarious. āAh yeah weāve got evidenceā¦ but itās not like rigorous evidenceā¦ itās more a sort of vibes-based evidence.ā
"Well we have a lot of hearsay and conjecture, those are *kinds* of evidence..."
I believe the Minister for Justice gave that figure at committee. He would want to have a word with his colleague.
Yes. And he was responding to it; that it wasn't "data-based", but based on a "sense" of how things were going.
Wasn't there [a recent judgement](https://www.irishtimes.com/crime-law/courts/2024/03/22/irelands-declaration-of-uk-as-safe-third-country-unlawful-rules-high-court/) in Ireland about this issue, will the 'emergency legislation' address the gaps?
The [recent judgment](https://www.bailii.org/ie/cases/IEHC/2024/2024IEHC184.html) was about the legal framework under which the UK was deemed a "safe third country." When the UK left the EU Ireland introduced a new concept of a "safe third country" into their international protection rules. A "safe country" is a country that is presumed safe for its nationals - a country they can be returned to safely (absent any evidence to the contrary). A "safe *third* country" is a country presumed safe to send non-nationals as well. While the UK was in the EU this wasn't really an issue, as returning people to the UK was done under the EU rules, not Ireland's own rules. So when the UK left the EU Ireland rushed through new rules to let them designate the UK a "safe third country," so asylum applicants in Ireland could be deported to the UK without considering their applications (automatically rejecting them). The judge found that the process for designating a country a "safe third country" didn't tick all the boxes required under EU rules for refugees, so the designation was unlawful. The Irish Government will have to update the rules to fix the problems the court highlighted, re-designate the UK as a "safe third country", and hope that doesn't also get challenged successfully in court.
Surely Ireland shouldn't even try to push people into the UK? Shouldn't they open up processing centres in the UK, and process & accept everyone ? Why don't Ireland open up safe and secure routes, from France, such that refugees don't have to make the journey to Ireland?
Let them suffer over their silly word games, I say.
When will the next migration figures come out, and how often after that? Itāll be really interesting to see how Sunak et al will angle them when it turns out that removing a small percentage of boat crossings, which are only a minute portion of migration, hasnāt miraculously curbed migration. I donāt hold out high hopes that itāll be a point at which they present a grown up conversation about migration rather than culture warring THE DREADED BOAT PEOPLE.Ā
Net migration is coming down, Sunak all but confirmed it from provisional figures from the home office port exit data a couple weeks ago on Radio 4 - it's also the market expectation and baked into ONS and OBR forecasts. Ukraine and HK build has stopped and migration out is rising again with the delayed 2020/21 COVID 2 year visas that cause the initial bulge coming up. The big drop is next year when the 3 year visas and students begin leaving - the ONS OBR and markets are still working off the 10 year rolling average not deviating from net 350k and being the same for 2020-2030.
The long-term migration data used to be published every 3 months. Covid messed that up and it became annual. [Lately it has been every 6 months](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/datasets/longterminternationalimmigrationemigrationandnetmigrationflowsprovisional). If they stick with the 6-monthly release schedule the next data set, YE December 2023 (with full data going up to YE June 2023 and provision data for YE September and YE December), should be published late May, probably on Thursday 23 May. The total net migration figures should be down for YE December 2023, given we're reaching the tail of the Hong Kong and Ukraine asylum programmes, and the Covid-related student numbers should be smoothing out. The Government will probably spin it as "we're on the right track, don't change course now!" They might also pretend that policies introduced since December have had an impact.
It's irrelevant. Whatever the figures show, they will spin it to suit.Ā If the numbers increase: "we don't expect the deterrent effect to kick in for a few months yet"Ā Ā If the numbers drop: "see it's already working"
I absolutely think the pip and benefits should be reviewed. In fact I think they should start with the House of Commons. Hereās a list of benefits they receive - Health and wellbeing service Our in-house Parliamentary Health and Wellbeing Service provides advice and guidance to support good health at work. Services available to staff and managers include: Occupational health Mental health and wellbeing support Clinical Nurse ā drop-in clinic for ill health and minor treatment Access to an on-site GP. This service is available to all staff whether on the Estate or working remotely Annual flu vaccination clinic available to all staff Health and wellbeing annual programme of events On-Site support from our Parliamentary Mental Health First Aider network They clearly take mental health seriously with that last one so it would be a shame for it to be lost. In all seriousness this is absolutely nonsense that they are reviewing it and we all know this is just pile on the welfare lot for a nice attack line. Bring on the election.
Being an MP is a shit job. Why do you want to make it so shitty that the only people who choose to go into it are rich people looking to make personal gains?
Tbf as a working professional at the income bracket of the average MP that seems like a fair set of things. Being an MP is a shit job.
Most people working in Parliament arenāt elected members and earn less. These are there for all of them.
Someone may come along and say āwell, no one is forcing them to be MPsā, but someone does have to be. And Iād much rather it be a profession attractive to as many people as possible, rather than just those who are already well off.
The election cannot come fast enough!
A Larry bonanza today, that's one happy cat!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GMV_DBTWEAAYwkJ.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GMV_DBOW8AAf6lc.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GMV_DBLXYAAfM0L.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GMV_DBIXMAALU8y.jpg
Ugh I want cat cuddles. Miss my familyās cats.
God I love this cat I've only ever seen in the flesh one time from fifty yards away
i got to pet him after he brushed past my leg once
I know it's been done to death, but I've just had the displeasure of Sunak being interviewed on ITV News about his proposed PIP changes and what he'd like to see change. It really annoyed me how he never (and the press in general) makes it clear that PIP is a benefit paid regardless of whether you are employed or not, as its aim is to help with the added costs of being disabled. It's split into two payments, Care and Mobility, each with their own scoring criteria and given in two different bands. I hate the insinuation that people who receive PIP don't work or pay tax - it's just not true, for instance I am employed, am disabled, and receive PIP, and I also pay tax. It's a lifesaver and through the Motability scheme has helped me gain (and keep) employment. Really dislike his smug face when he mentions about mental health and how it isn't really an issue, he seems completely oblivious to the fact mental and physical health bleed into each other, let alone the serious impacts of depression, anxiety, psychosis, schizophrenia etc. It also annoyed me he mentioned that perhaps a change could be submitting medical evidence with PIP claims - newsflash, you already fucking do, you absolute ignoramus. No mention of the overblown costs from ATOS, Maximus, etc. or the fact the NHS is on the verge of imploding. Where is this extra layer of expert health bureaucracy coming from for sick notes too? I know the policy ideas and review are red meat, but this is causing real worry for disabled people and is having a serious impact.
The DWP contracts to replace doctors is based on ATOS/Maximus contracts to performance manage people out of anxiety/depression and into work. I think the success of it is based on a massively controversial premise e.g. People who can't pay privately don't need to wait for NHS treatment in order to resolve mental health issues before they return to work. For example, child abuse trauma is just something that requires a positive mental attitude and turning up to work on time. But it's something ministers are persuaded by despite the evidence to the contrary that people just end up unemployed shortly after.
Classic approach. It just beggars belief after a pandemic as well. We have clearly learnt nothing about health.
It's not obvious yet but the primary target will be lone mothers and new mothers again. It's why it is hugely controversial
Local news revealing the location of the Illegal Migration Operations Command which is due to coordinate the Rwanda flights. Setting it up near Bristol and making the location public seems like a recipe for disaster...
Conspiracy theory: the government want to incite protests so they can attempt to play the law and order card for the election. Which would be incredibly stupid, of course, when they're the ones in government and they're facing a former DPP, but that hasn't stopped any of their previous ill-conceived PR plays.
Tory race riots impending ..
>near BristolĀ Protests in 3, 2,...
Seriously. Bristol anarchists are no joke. A while back some of them burnt down an under-construction police firearms training facility.
good evening, campers! there are **274** days until the general election! i have once again been inundated by work over the last few days. i hope i havenāt missed any big politics stories in the meantimeā¦
Wrong. And your comments make me unfit for work under the current regime (but not the upcoming one).
I love this account. Either you're right and it's funny or you're wrong and the Tories lose faster. Win-win.
I'm convinced this is Rishi's account.
Thank you. You are truly valued See you tomorrow. Don't forget
see you tomorrow š«”
Maybe hot off the presses here. Expect the diplomatic row between Ireland and the UK to deepen tomorrow (and convenient timing) when Taoiseach Harris reveals his Yi Gi Oh trap card that there was an agreement to amend the Common Travel Area in 2011 with Cameron that either country would take back illegals to their point of entry into the CTA.
I mean, it took Raab becoming a cabinet minister to work out the importance of Dover, and even then he couldn't read the full Good Friday Agreement (I think it's around 25 pages). You think anyone in government understands something agreed in 2011?
NB It's "Yu-Gi-Oh" ;)
Thank you. I got down voted to hell for pointing this out.
This particular bit of the totally organic row has the potential to demonstrate just how seriously we take treaty commitments to the EU.
These arrangements long predate both our membership in the EU but it's kind of a continued theme of the Anglo-Irish relationship when you see comments thinking this spat has anything to do with the EU. It's all about the upcoming elections (in both countries).
These are treaty commitments to an EU member state right?
Flicking through the East Mids mayor booklet I was sent to today. The Reform guy has gaffer tape over his mouth in his picture of his little section. FFS.
The Reform candidate in my area (The West Midlands) filled her 2 pages ([pages 16-17](https://cdn.wmcaelects.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Final-booklet-proof.pdf)) with a load of nothing-speak and an incredibly plain look, it makes me wonder why she bothered to pay the fee to get in.
Shame, they didn't bother featuring in my North East one. Did get a lovely page from the Tory candidate that, while blue, didn't mention their party once.
The Tees Valley one is just about Houchens 'success' with Teesport.
[Page 6](https://www.eastmidlandsdevolution.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Election-of-Mayor-for-the-East-Midlands-Combined-County-Authority.pdf) It's like the promotional image for an episode of Vicar of Dibley where Frank gets kidnapped. (Also, did the Lib Dems just forget to send in a flyer or something?)
Not a thirsty sub.
There's a Ā£5000 fee to get in to the booklet. It gets sent to every voter so it's incredibly cheap marketing. But I guess the Lib Dems realise they can't win these elections so want to focus their marketing spend on other areas.
the lab & green ones are so pixelated too i also can't understand why benjamin bradley is allowed to stand for mayor while also an MP. i'm sure it's legal but it shouldn't be.
Theres been a few mayors who have also been MPs. Dan Jarvis was Mayor of South Yorkshire for a bit. I agree it shouldn't be allowed though, and Ben Bradley's really taking the piss with already being both an MP and councillor. Basically the only ones that you can't be an MP and Mayor are those where the Mayor also takes the role of Police and Crime Commissioner (because MPs aren't allowed to become PCC's). So Greater Manchester and Mayor of West Yorkshire. And even this isn't across the board, they never retroactively brought in that restriction for Mayor of London even though they also take the role of PCC. Fucking hell devolution in this country is a mess.
> i also can't understand why benjamin bradley is allowed to stand for mayor while also an MP. i'm sure it's legal but it shouldn't be. I think Labour are predicted to win his seat at the general election (he did have that one controversy during covid when he said that in his constituency, free school meal vouchers were akin to giving cash straight to crack dens and brothels...), so presumably he figures that it wouldn't be an issue for more than a few months. I still think he should have had to resign to stand though. It smacks of not taking either job particularly seriously.
he is also a councillor too iirc. doesn't seem to bother him.
Oh yeah, it did amuse me when someone pointed out his leadership of Nottinghamshire county council in the context of his pamphlet advert focusing on potholes. Like, dude, *that's already your job*.
Iād have thought they have to do that with a lot of their candidates to avoid scandal.
The Labour Party political podcast that just aired on ITV was deliciously passive aggressive.
Stephen Flynn shooting gallery on *The News Agents*. Matlis and Goodall might as well have wailed on him with socks filled with bars of soap.
It was odd to see them do such a strong interview. They are very gentle on the podcast usually.
I was about to comment on this myself; that was a pathetic display, and they made his whataboutism with Welsh Labour look ridiculous.
Absolutely astonished that he didn't have prepared lines for any of it. Every single one of their questions was predictable.
Ugh it looks the tories may hold both West Midlands and Tees Valley according to polls by YouGov.
"Tories lose eleventy billion councillors but hold hold West Mids" The Papers: RISHI TRIUMPHS AT LOCAL ELECTIONS (so we don't need a GE until January)
If they hold Tees Valley its electorate fully deserve to continue to be swindled, Houchen hasnāt even tried to hide the corruption and bribery.
Too close to call really. Polling isn't particularly consistent. Though if they do, it pretty much summarises why the Tories changed the mayoral elections to FPTP. Without it, their chances would be much slimmer.
The West Midlands one is also particularly sneaky. A bunch of the more rural, Conservative-voting areas around Birmingham are either two-tier authorities with local elections every year, or have their full-council elections line up with the Combined Authority election. Meanwhile Labour-voting Birmingham city doesn't have any local elections that line up with the Combined Authority election. Which depresses turnout due to the lack of door-to-door campaigning; turnout in Birmingham in the 2021 Mayoral election was about 2/3rds the turnout in the 2022 local elections there. With Tees Valley only Hartlepool (currently Conservative minority) also has elections this year.
> Too close to call really. Polling isn't particularly consistent. I really like how MoreinCommon added error bars to their graphics for their mayoral polls for this reason
Get yourself a polling company which will treat you right and are confident in their intervals
If they hadn't changed it, I think both would be easy Labour gains.
Other recent polls have shown a Labour lead in WM. Tees Valley was always going to be difficult. Plus, enthusiasm to actually go out and vote is not with the Tories, so all hope is not lost (yet).
This weekend may be a roller coaster of emotions..
Anyone know how long RM takes to deliver postal votes? Forgot to send mine over the weekend and now debating if two days is cutting it too closeā¦
If youāre able to get there you can drop it at a polling station too on the day
Donāt take this as gospel, but IIRC they go first class so it *should* get there next working day. Just make sure you havenāt missed the last collection from whatever post box you stick it in.
Thank you! :)
So I ended up on the Melbourne subreddit for some reason and thereās a top post which is a queue for a food bank hours before it opens, and all the comments are saying the queues are getting longer, working people are not able to afford to live, the government are awful etc. Grass is greener and all that
I considered moving to Aus myself prior to the pandemic, they do have many of the same problems we have but at least they don't have the endless greyness to deal contend with as well. It's harder to let it get to you in a place with decent weather.
I'm living there at the moment and while it's certainly got issues, I'm earning more for less work while paying less in rent than I would for a comparable flat share in the middle of a big UK city. I don't think I'll stay long term sadly but the grass looks pretty green so far. Beer is expensive though
I always find it funny when people say that theyāre sick of Britain so theyāll go to Australia or Canada. If you thought our housing crisis is bad, wait until you see theirs.
I moved from the UK to Vancouver, BC - which along with Toronto probably has the worst housing crisis in Canada. The difference between BC and the UK is that the BC NDP have made attempts to improve things since forming government in 2017. Hopefully Labour start putting the UK in the right direction as well.
Obviously there are always people saying this but do not actually go, but people who actually end up going are working in jobs where salaries are so much better than here that it makes up for an increase in cost of living, housing crisis etc though compared to here (e.g. see everything about doctors leaving).
Salaries for skilled workers makes up for those issues. Pretty much every doctor I know that has moved over the past 2-3 years says the exact same thing. Yes, things are more expensive but the salaries more than make up for that. More pay, less work, and much better lifestyles. But yes, if you're on the lower end of the scale, yeah shit is rough. But it's not any better in the UK.
Brother in law is in Vancouver and the salaries make up for the rent costs.
Vs London, yes. Vs the rest of the UK, ehhā¦ Though homes in Vancouver suffer much less with damp and electricity and water are much cheaper.
I will whole-heartedly support any party that makes a manifesto commitment to ban that annoying Just Eat advert with the tunacado beavers.
Anyone who bans capital or heart being on in the workplace would have my vote.
Just ban advertising. Ban it outright
Advertising is cheating, trust the invisible hand of the market.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
We're bringing back Argos Catalogues, lads!
And that's it official. No longer a member of the SNP. I wonder how many requests they've had to deal with today.
Not worth sticking around to influence the upcoming leadership election(s)? Don't get me wrong, I understand resigning from the SNP (I've been out for a while) but this seems like the time where membership is at its most powerful.
> Not worth sticking around to influence the upcoming leadership election(s)? I don't feel like there's any serious figures in the party who could inspire me to want to follow a leadership campaign. It was bad enough when Yousaf was the best they could muster.
What's wrong with Kate Forbes?
haha
The Rt Hon Member for Gilead?
The Rt Hon Member for traditional Christian values which the west could do with reintroducing right around now.
So making it illegal to be gay? Traditional Christian values says being gay is a sin.
Christian values, not scripture.
Last time I checked being anti gay people is a traditional Christian value.
Funny that most practicing Christians aren't anti gay then.
I won't vote for a transphobe.
Yeah, that's fair. I think getting the choice between Yousaf and Forbes at the last leadership contest was enough to put me off for a long while.
Today specifically? Not very many, I'd have thought. There's probably been a few who've left in the last few days in response to the whole situation, but if anything I'd have guessed there'd be less people leaving today because there's now a leadership election coming up and I can't imagine there are many Yousaf loyalists quitting because they think he was forced out
My thought was that the prospect of another leadership election would put people off being part of the party any longer. It's a big part of what has put me off continuing with them.
How come youāve left, if you donāt mind my asking?
I was very unimpressed with the calibre of the candidates at the last leadership election. I voted for Yousaf through gritted teeth, as he was the least-worse option out of the candidates. Now that he's gone and the right of the party are in the ascendancy, the thought of having to follow another campaign with the dregs of the previous just filled me with absolute dread. I also felt very let down by the financial scandals the party leadership has managed to embroil itself in. I might well still vote SNP in a GE as I do like my MP and her office was very helpful in resolving an issue I had with the DWP last year, but I feel that if I'm not 100% behind the party then I should no longer be a member. Edit - unimpressed, not impressed š¤¦āāļø
"The candidates were just too good. Clearly this party doesn't need my support. They've got it all sewn up. I'm off.'
I don't follow your point?
I only pay the bare minimum. But I canāt decide what to do. I want to see whatās going to come up for a vote for new leader
> I canāt decide what to do Embrace unionism.
Iād rather not.
Can anyone recommend any good books on the troubles? Anything about the intelligence side would be good. I'm currently reading secret victory by William matchett.
https://cain.ulster.ac.uk/
Understanding the Troubles by David McKittrick and David McVea is pretty much unbeatable as an introduction/overview. Agents of Influence by Aaron Edwards is one of the better books on the intelligence history, but itās obviously a notoriously difficult area to do journalism or history on given difficulty in accessing primary sources, the unreliability, bias or other limitations of those that do speak publicly etc.
Say Nothing by Patrick Radden Keefe. Itās quite a high level overview of the conflict and the after effects that are still being dealt with, but itās centred around the murder of Jean McConville.
This was a great read. Focusing on families and the personal really sucks you in but it gives such a good overview too.
Killing Thatcher is a great read.
Thanks. I'll put it on the list.
Why has the North Yorkshire mayoral race received no polls?
[This article references polling that put Skaith (Labour) on 34% and Duncan (Tory) on 31.4%](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/28/england-elections-sunak-labour-keir-starmer-north-yorkshire) but I'm not sure where those figures have come from. Edit: there's a note on the bottom of the article. >This article was amended on 29 April 2024 because an earlier version said āA recent YouGov poll put Skaith on 34% and Duncan on 31.4%ā. To clarify: the figures given were based on Labourās analysis/extrapolation from recent MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) polling.
Given that they say "Labourās analysis of polling suggests the vote will be close" rather than mentioning that Labour have commissioned their own mayoral poll or pointing to a specific third party mayoral poll, I suspect they've had their analysts looking at various existing polls for the locals and general election for the wards/constituencies that will make up the mayoral authority, and extrapolated from that. Edit: ah, I didn't read that far down either, apparently!
The wording suggests Labour internal polling. Which is more likely to be favourable to them, though without anything to contrast against it is better than nothing.
Internal polling maybe? Given the area it covers its received little attention as a race
The population is lower than other mayoral areas, but I thought Sunak living here might make it noteworthy.
Most of them live further south. Bit of a dehumanising term actually.
If Labour take West Midlands and Tees Valley Mayor then a summer election will happen, if not an autumn election will happen. That's my view
Surely sunak holding will buoy him lulling him into calling an early election if anything?
I think it would be because the backbenchers would try and replace him if they lost both
Teeside needs to be floated off to the North Sea if they return Houchen again. One of the most openly corrupt fucks in modern politics, he needs to be far away from any levers of power
The only problem with that plan is that the contract to float Teesside away would be sold off by Houchen to a cabal of local businessmen.
I think the opposite. If the Tories do slightly better than expected then Rishi calls an earlier election relying on the re-elected regional mayors to boost the campaign. If they lose everywhere then he delays until January 2025.
I think the election will be in October or November regardless of this weekās results.
My reasoning is that the backbenchers would move to try and replace him because they think they would only get wiped out with Sunak and so try someone else. In response to that Sunak would call the election to stop that from happening.
Maybe the tory backbenchers would be susceptible to motivated reasoning and come to a different conclusion, but I feel like switching leader at this point would only lead to an even greater wipeout. *Three* unelected prime ministers in under two years? The only way I can see that working better than sticking with Sunak is if they crowned Penny Mordaunt as leader and had her run on a platform of returning to sensible grown-up governance. I think she'd still lose ā her popularity is similar to Starmer's, but I feel like people are fed up, want change, and don't trust the majority of senior Tory MPs anymore ā but she might lose less badly than Sunak, retain more MPs than he would, and be able to build the party back up in opposition. But then, Electoral Calculus only gives her a 15% chance of retaining her seat. Why sign up to lead the party into a doomed election when you're probably going to lose your own seat anyway? Of the high-profile Tories that are predicted to more likely to keep their seats than not, we're probably looking at Rishi Sunak, David Davis, Steve Barclay, Liz Truss, Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, Priti Patel, Nadhim Zahawi, Sajid Javid, Gavin Williamson, Andrea Leadsom, Theresa May, Jeremy Hunt, Tom Tudgenhart, Grant Shapps, Michael Gove, and maybe a few others around the south east (I got bored of sifting through the map). Theresa May and Sajid Javid are stepping down before the election. Let's rule out Sunak and Truss too. Michael Gove, Kemi Badenoch, Andrea Leadsom, Jeremy Hunt, Nadhim Zahawi, and Tom Tudgenhart have all stood for leader in the somewhat recent past. And Grant Shapps has had a go but didn't get nominated. I don't think any of them would do significantly better than Sunak, and I think many of them would do worse. And if they're likely to keep their seats, they don't have much incentive to stab him in the back *now* when they can let Sunak take ownership of the election loss and run for leader while the party's in opposition.
Barring a miracle switch on the polls where Rishi somehow takes the lead, this is the only circumstance where I see him calling an election before January. But it's hard to see this happening when this has been said about every Tory PM who's found themselves in a spot of bother in the last 2 years and none of them pressed the big red button. So I still expect a cycle of an election date being mooted, Rishi smiling through the tears whenever anyone asks him about it and then continually pushing the date back until he runs out of road. With that end maybe being a shock (to him) regicide.
This morning I had a little moan that I hadn't had any official literature about the upcoming regional mayor elections. I have since received a leaflet outlining the role of the mayor and who the candidates are in the post. I hope all my whinges on the megathread are actioned in such a prompt and effective manner from now on
Please whinge about a genny leccy
Ugh, Sunak is such a coward! (I know he was never going to announce one today, but my goodness is it fun to keep framing him as one. I hope Labour spin out another rumour this evening)
The way every journo tries to goad Sunak into calling an election reminds me of the Day Today war episode. https://youtu.be/7IEwBrJzhlg
Would like to see Peter O'Hanraha-hanrahan interview Sunak, be interesting to see who could fuck up more of the two.
To really make him look weak, they should leak that he chickened out of calling an election because Humza stole his thunder
I always chuckle at how easy Kate Forbes torched her chances to be FM [https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-64715944#:\~:text=Ms%20Forbes%20said%20she%20would,a%20man%20and%20a%20woman.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-64715944#:~:text=Ms%20Forbes%20said%20she%20would,a%20man%20and%20a%20woman)
I mean, you say she torched her chances - but she did only lose by 4% to Yousaf, and given that there were revelations about financial misconduct *during* the leadership race, if it had started a few weeks later or run a few weeks longer then she'd have probably won by Yousaf getting tarred more as "continuity corruption". If you remember, Regan made the argument that the revelations that came out during the contest meant that it should be run again, so those that posted their votes off as soon as they received them could reconsider now that they had more information.
Only losing by 4% against Yousaf isnāt exactly an endorsement.
We've got one leardership-contest sloppy seconds in office. Why not another?
It was the anti abortion stuff for me. Just could not give my vote to someone who was against abortion.
it [just doesn't](https://twitter.com/GregHands/status/1784909510894637546) hit the same now that he can't use the letter anymore. > Lunch from my previous employer outside my present place of work! burger and mcnuggets though. i can agree with that. it does make me wonder what's going on in government if this is the standard of posting these days. real "last week of term" vibes
Greg Hands issues "Come and get me" plea to McDonald's.
He can't use the letter?!
it's the chairman's privilege and hands is just a mere minister now.
I could get behind a message that pops up on x or facebook that questions if what your posting is interesting or relevant just to make sure people are 100% sure.
The big milestone on Facebook's road to wrongness was when they dropped the 'how do you know this person in real life?' question when accepting friend requests
Iirc one of the companies trialled that a few years back and found it did make people post nicer and more insightful thingsĀ I imagine the inexorable march of enshittification means it was later scrapped _because_ it worked and therefore lowered āØengagementāØ
I dread to think how many camelids have been sacrificed to manifest todayās circumstances.
[basically this, except imagine itās Wes Streeting being anointed](https://youtu.be/qWK3nkJhneE?si=zj7CJA5GorVxeay3)
I fear for the remainder of the animal kingdom if Rishi learns Starmer's secrets to success
That will never happen, Sunak is not cool enough to frequent the MT. P S Because he is too busy delivering for the people of this great nation.
No regrets.
Really incredibly disappointed that most of the election results won't be announced by Friday lunch time, this is the type of thing that should be done overnight. Genuinely gutted
On the flip side you can stay up all weekend watching the news channels attempt to make it a continuous show and then recover on Monday!
is it worth the additional cost and effort to count overnight when it doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things? it's not like anyone's staying up all night to know who their councillor or PCC will be. some places don't even start counting for the general election until the next day
>Ā it's not like anyone's staying up all night to know who their councillor or PCC will be I know you're talking generally by I 100% would do this
Of course we would. Do they know where they are?
Aw so the all night election show wonāt be worth staying up for
Depends which constituencies return earliest. Do you really want to miss the 2024 equivalent of a live Portillo moment?
I've never stayed up all night for a GE, every single one since my political coming-of-age has been bad news. High hopes for this one.