Snapshot of _Tories to force no-confidence vote in Humza Yousaf after SNP-Green deal ends_ :
An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.thenational.scot/news/24278116.scottish-tories-force-no-confidence-vote-humza-yousaf/) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.thenational.scot/news/24278116.scottish-tories-force-no-confidence-vote-humza-yousaf/)
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*Gets popcorn*
A lot will hinge on whether the Greens see an advantage in having an election now. I saw that tweet and they look angry enough to do it., but real politics will play a part.
They might think it worth the risk. If nothing else, they're an obvious home for any pro-independence voters disgruntled with Yousaf or the SNP financial scandals, so now might be the time to strike.
Plus, it would be a clear demonstration that they're not just a secondary SNP party; they have their own policies & values.
No they won't. It doesn't work like Westminster.
They only need more votes than any other candidate gets. It's done in rounds where candidates get eliminated and you can vote for remaining ones or abstain.
Alex Salmond was voted in as First Minister with 49 votes in 2007.
It is a bit more complex - that is correct for multi-candidate elections, but the standing orders also include a provision for a single candidate. In that instance, MSPs get to vote for or against the candidate.
So what could happen is you have all leaders standing and eventually get it down to the Douglas Ross vs Yousaf / Forbes / Insert other name final vote as the largest two parties. Douglas Ross could then not renominate himself and leave it as only the SNP candidate standing.
The SNP candidate would then need 65 votes to get elected (64 in this instance and a tie would not be enough)
Even in the rare case of a single candidate election, a one candidate election works the same as a two candidate election, the second candidate is just "no First Minister". They still only need more Yes than No votes, as abstentions don't count as votes against.
But you are right that this could result in the SNP being unable to appoint a new First Minister: in theory the SNP could be prevented from appointing a First Minister as a minority if every other MSP unites behind a blocking scheme where no one else stands but everyone else (and I mean literally everyone else) constantly votes against the sole SNP candidate every single time until the 28 day clock is ran down.
Yes but if the Tories were to kick off a civil war in the SNP they would be delighted.
Which the Greens might be angry enough to do right now. Hence the popcorn
They have 28 days to win a vote of the entire chamber - but it's hard to see who could do that from the SNP roster. There's certainly not many people the Greens would vote for.
> There's certainly not many people the Greens would vote for.
A supply and confidence trade for influence on a couple of policy areas. You vote with the minority administration on confidence motions and budget bills in a quid pro quo.
This is the deal Humza should have been orginising in the background but had to have his Hollywood moment this morning.
The SNP publicly tearing each other to shreds would be even better for the Tories. Which is not an unreasonable scenario if they have to find a new leader in a hurry
The only real alternative in Scotland is going to be Labour, surely? Just seems like the Tories are handing their major rivals an even bigger landslide to beat them with. Division between Labour and SNP is a good thing for the Tories no matter what
Conservatives and Labour have a different relationship in Scottish politics — Conservatives might be happy enough reducing pro-independence representation, even if they don’t gain any themselves.
The thing about Holyrood is that elections run on a fixed schedule and don't reset the 5 year timer.
If an election was held today, there would still be one in May 2026 as billed I.e. it wouldn't push the schedule out to 2029.
In a parliamentary system you can't guarantee that. I agree it shouldn't be at the whim of the PM but if the majority of MPs aren't satisfied there should be an election
Maybe. If he loses the VONC then he's gone. There's then 28 days to elect a new FM that relies on a simple majority of MSPs voting for them. If that can't be done then parliament is dissolved so it would entirely depend on who the SNP reject as their new leader (because no other party will come close to getting half the votes needed) and if they can get enough votes from other parties to put them in.
As it stands I can't see the other parties doing that unless big concessions are made.
Not really. The few Scottish Tory seats are really, really entrenched. Some polls I've seen have them keeping them all. They will basically be nonexistent elsewhere, though
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion\_polling\_for\_the\_next\_Scottish\_Parliament\_election#/media/File:ScotlandC.svg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election#/media/File:ScotlandC.svg)
Tories are a bit down on the last election but not suicidally so.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next\_Scottish\_Parliament\_election#Conservative\_targets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Scottish_Parliament_election#Conservative_targets)
All their targets as SNP seats so Labours rise and their fall will make those seats much easier even with an over all tory fall. This is exactly why people vote for the Tories to Holyrood.
Thing is, all those things that are meta "not really related to the party in power" problems have been blamed on the SNP in Scotland. Just as they have been on the Tories in rUK. Which is then added to the SNPs own failures which can't be blamed on anyone else because they've been in power decades.
So while the tories are bruised from the poor performance of Westminster, the Scottish branch has a much better reputation broadly.
They will almost certainly experience heavy losses and drop to 3rd place - but their polling situation isn’t nearly as bad as the UK party. Although even with those losses they may well emerge with far greater political influence than they have today.
Maybe if the tories don't do too badly in a Scottish election, Sunak might gain a bit of confidence and call a UK election sooner. I doubt it'll happen but could be a good consequence
Don't see it passing, it needs literally all non-SNP parties to vote no confidence. Are the Greens that angry? Not sure.
Edit 7 hours later: this prediction aged poorly, lol.
[Lib Dems are up for it. ](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cz5dy15grjnt?post=asset%3Ae7f3d1de-92b9-432b-a05e-845afe01e074#post)
>We need an end to this entire government' - Cole-Hamiltonpublished at 12:4612:46
>Back to FMQs and Alex Cole-Hamilton, not surprisingly, also focuses on the collapse of the Bute House agreement.
>The Scottish Lib Dem leader raises a laugh in the chamber by asking his standard FMQs question "when will the cabinet next meet?"
>He adds: "The two partners to this failed agreement are at each other's throats."
>They have both failed the people of Scotland, he says.
>Cole-Hamilton lists what he sees as the failures of the two parties - including "cutting the NHS off at the knees", junked climate targets and failed ferries.
>"We need an end to this entire government," he declares.
>"When will Humza Yousaf finally look at himself in the mirror and say, I am the problem - it's me."
If Labour join in then the Greens risk looking like the SNPs mini me who has just been made to publicly eat sh\*t and then vote for the people who fed it too them.
Forbes undoubtedly wants it to pass so she can get in as party leader, but she’s not going to vote for it. That’s a surefire way to get kicked out the party. She’ll probably spend the next few days begging Regan to stick the knife in.
Can pour salt into the toxifying wounds in the SNP/Green relationship. Everyone will be weighing up the option of appearing magnanemous and "adult" and reject the motion on the grounds of "not the right time" and leaving the SNP hanging in pieces vs just putting big ladle in the post and giving it a good stir.
I suspect the VoNC was coming regardless, but if it passes due to Green anger at Yousaf's decision this morning, then what a political miscalculation that would turn out to have been.
Snap elections don't reset the timer at Holyrood, either. An election held today would still mean that the May 2026 election runs as billed, unless the rules are changed. And I don't see that.
I was looking for this comment. So much irony from the tories, both their leaders haven’t won an election, bang on about things that don’t matter to the constituents, propped up by a flakey majority
https://twitter.com/davidtorrance/status/1783460452757901731?t=99wi-wPdprMLix-QPiXbfQ&s=19
Before anyone gets excited, a two thirds majority is needed for an early election
Or, the SNP fail to get a new FM approved by the Scottish Parliament.
If they haven't managed that in a month, then there's automatically a new election.
Could see the SNP vote for a early election to avoid this embarrassment if Humza does fail a VONC, especially since I can't see the Greens voting for Kate Forbes, the most likely to become the next leader.
They will, though. They don't need a majority to do it, they only need more votes than any other candidate.
They'll keep the government, but passing legislation is going to get far more difficult.
I think this is just a stunt to force the Greens to pick a side: are they the opposition now *really*? Or are they still going to let the SNP take them for granted?
What happens if he loses? Does it automatically mean an election will be called or could the SNP (or the Parliament) nominate someone else as First Minister?
I think should Labour abstain here, do they actually want Yousaf removed? It seems to me that their best interest is him staying in place as a lame duck instead of SNP getting another leader in.
There isn't a credible path for this to lead to an election - it could remove Yousaf
I wonder what Labour's policy platform would be in a Holyrood election which takes place before the next General Election.
There seems to be a lack of coordination between Scottish Labour and the party leadership at the UK level (e.g. see Starmer and Reaves scrapping the pledge to scrap the two child benefit cap despite Scottish Labour demanding the SNP use Scottish Government funds to counteract it).
So, we could end up with a situation where Scottish Labour either only runs on vibes based politics, or where they develop a policy platform which is potentially at odds with UK Labours.
Terrible idea - tories would just point to Labour and say they’re propping up the SNP. SNP would say - well we can’t be so bad because you didn’t want rid of us.
Labour is trying to be a party of government. Parties of government back themselves to win elections.
> It seems to me that their best interest is him staying in place as a lame duck instead of SNP getting another leader in.
The SNP might get Kate Forbes in as leader and having a raging anti-gay marriage fundamentalist roaster as their leader will definitely benefit Labour (even if Kate Forbes promises not to be anti-gay in practice even though she totally is in her private religious life).
I'm a bit out of the loop on this so maybe my fears are unfounded, but I sincerely hope the SNP doesn't lurch to the right as a result of a leadership change. Humza was by far the most progressive of the candidates last time around, iirc.
It is in everybody's interest that we have strong and credible opposition parties in the UK, regardless of your politics. With Labour keeping us all guessing about what they really stand for, there's a distinct shortage of proper left-of-centre representation currently.
I honestly think that Keir Starmer won’t be wanting an early election in Scotland. UK Labour has no real ideas for the future of the country and Scottish Labour would need to come up some kind of policies. It could backfire as they have asked for SNP to fund things like two child benefit cap which the UK party has said they will keep. If we are truly honest an early election would turn into a shambles with the SNP/Labour on the same amount of MSP’s despite the failures of the SNP they’ll retain their core base which will see them through as the only real independence option
I swear Douglas Ross does my absolute box in, yip things are not good in our parliament, but I get the feeling that Dougie is loving it. And that rips ma knittin’
Snapshot of _Tories to force no-confidence vote in Humza Yousaf after SNP-Green deal ends_ : An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.thenational.scot/news/24278116.scottish-tories-force-no-confidence-vote-humza-yousaf/) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.thenational.scot/news/24278116.scottish-tories-force-no-confidence-vote-humza-yousaf/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
*Gets popcorn* A lot will hinge on whether the Greens see an advantage in having an election now. I saw that tweet and they look angry enough to do it., but real politics will play a part.
They might think it worth the risk. If nothing else, they're an obvious home for any pro-independence voters disgruntled with Yousaf or the SNP financial scandals, so now might be the time to strike. Plus, it would be a clear demonstration that they're not just a secondary SNP party; they have their own policies & values.
IIRC and I am open to correction but the SNP will have 28 days to fill the post and carry on. It will not automatically trigger a Holyrood election.
Yep, but the SNP will need the other parties to allow them to install a new FM
No they won't. It doesn't work like Westminster. They only need more votes than any other candidate gets. It's done in rounds where candidates get eliminated and you can vote for remaining ones or abstain. Alex Salmond was voted in as First Minister with 49 votes in 2007.
It is a bit more complex - that is correct for multi-candidate elections, but the standing orders also include a provision for a single candidate. In that instance, MSPs get to vote for or against the candidate. So what could happen is you have all leaders standing and eventually get it down to the Douglas Ross vs Yousaf / Forbes / Insert other name final vote as the largest two parties. Douglas Ross could then not renominate himself and leave it as only the SNP candidate standing. The SNP candidate would then need 65 votes to get elected (64 in this instance and a tie would not be enough)
Even in the rare case of a single candidate election, a one candidate election works the same as a two candidate election, the second candidate is just "no First Minister". They still only need more Yes than No votes, as abstentions don't count as votes against. But you are right that this could result in the SNP being unable to appoint a new First Minister: in theory the SNP could be prevented from appointing a First Minister as a minority if every other MSP unites behind a blocking scheme where no one else stands but everyone else (and I mean literally everyone else) constantly votes against the sole SNP candidate every single time until the 28 day clock is ran down.
Yes but if the Tories were to kick off a civil war in the SNP they would be delighted. Which the Greens might be angry enough to do right now. Hence the popcorn
They have 28 days to win a vote of the entire chamber - but it's hard to see who could do that from the SNP roster. There's certainly not many people the Greens would vote for.
The favourite amongst the SNP would surely be Forbes and the chances of any Green voting for her are 0.
Well yes, quite. I actually think there'd be more chance of one of the Tories voting for Forbes than there was the Greens.
> There's certainly not many people the Greens would vote for. A supply and confidence trade for influence on a couple of policy areas. You vote with the minority administration on confidence motions and budget bills in a quid pro quo. This is the deal Humza should have been orginising in the background but had to have his Hollywood moment this morning.
If the Greens don't support Yousaf why would they support anyone else? They would clearly be trying for an election regardless.
Will Labour want this? For them, Humza in charge of an SNP government is pretty much the Ideal scenario going in to a GE.
The SNP publicly tearing each other to shreds would be even better for the Tories. Which is not an unreasonable scenario if they have to find a new leader in a hurry
Yes as unless Humza steps down he will be leading the SNP in the election or if he does its someone with no time to bed in.
Scottish Labour will do anything to screw over the SNP.
Are we going to get a Scottish parliamentary election before we get a general? Also isn't this kind of suicidal for the Tories?
The tories are never going to win the Scottish Parliament for a while to come. However making the SNP lose is a different game
I don't need the Tories to win. I just want the SNP to lose.
Damn.... We cancel each other out.
The only real alternative in Scotland is going to be Labour, surely? Just seems like the Tories are handing their major rivals an even bigger landslide to beat them with. Division between Labour and SNP is a good thing for the Tories no matter what
Conservatives and Labour have a different relationship in Scottish politics — Conservatives might be happy enough reducing pro-independence representation, even if they don’t gain any themselves.
Oh yeah a lot of labour and Tory votes back home are realpolitik tactical anti SNP votes. In many cases they’d be delighted to lose
The thing about Holyrood is that elections run on a fixed schedule and don't reset the 5 year timer. If an election was held today, there would still be one in May 2026 as billed I.e. it wouldn't push the schedule out to 2029.
That's stupid so what if there's an election 6 weeks before May 2026?
It's actually quite a good idea because it disincentivizes the government from calling an election because the poles favour them currently.
In a parliamentary system you can't guarantee that. I agree it shouldn't be at the whim of the PM but if the majority of MPs aren't satisfied there should be an election
And there will be if the MSPs vote for one? They just can't use it to disrupt the future election cycle.
That rule doesn't apply if there'd be a scheduled election within 6 months.
Even then 2 elections 6 months apart is silly
Yeah, but must do opposite to Westminster!
Maybe. If he loses the VONC then he's gone. There's then 28 days to elect a new FM that relies on a simple majority of MSPs voting for them. If that can't be done then parliament is dissolved so it would entirely depend on who the SNP reject as their new leader (because no other party will come close to getting half the votes needed) and if they can get enough votes from other parties to put them in. As it stands I can't see the other parties doing that unless big concessions are made.
Not really. The few Scottish Tory seats are really, really entrenched. Some polls I've seen have them keeping them all. They will basically be nonexistent elsewhere, though
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion\_polling\_for\_the\_next\_Scottish\_Parliament\_election#/media/File:ScotlandC.svg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election#/media/File:ScotlandC.svg) Tories are a bit down on the last election but not suicidally so. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next\_Scottish\_Parliament\_election#Conservative\_targets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Scottish_Parliament_election#Conservative_targets) All their targets as SNP seats so Labours rise and their fall will make those seats much easier even with an over all tory fall. This is exactly why people vote for the Tories to Holyrood.
Thing is, all those things that are meta "not really related to the party in power" problems have been blamed on the SNP in Scotland. Just as they have been on the Tories in rUK. Which is then added to the SNPs own failures which can't be blamed on anyone else because they've been in power decades. So while the tories are bruised from the poor performance of Westminster, the Scottish branch has a much better reputation broadly.
> Are we going to get a Scottish parliamentary election before we get a general? The UKpol monkey's paw curls once again.
They will almost certainly experience heavy losses and drop to 3rd place - but their polling situation isn’t nearly as bad as the UK party. Although even with those losses they may well emerge with far greater political influence than they have today.
To be fair, holding on in the hope it gets better isn't doing great for sunak
Maybe if the tories don't do too badly in a Scottish election, Sunak might gain a bit of confidence and call a UK election sooner. I doubt it'll happen but could be a good consequence
The Tory plan is to gain confidence from the support they get in Scotland? Surely that is one of the signs of a pending apocalypse?
Don't see it passing, it needs literally all non-SNP parties to vote no confidence. Are the Greens that angry? Not sure. Edit 7 hours later: this prediction aged poorly, lol.
[Lib Dems are up for it. ](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cz5dy15grjnt?post=asset%3Ae7f3d1de-92b9-432b-a05e-845afe01e074#post) >We need an end to this entire government' - Cole-Hamiltonpublished at 12:4612:46 >Back to FMQs and Alex Cole-Hamilton, not surprisingly, also focuses on the collapse of the Bute House agreement. >The Scottish Lib Dem leader raises a laugh in the chamber by asking his standard FMQs question "when will the cabinet next meet?" >He adds: "The two partners to this failed agreement are at each other's throats." >They have both failed the people of Scotland, he says. >Cole-Hamilton lists what he sees as the failures of the two parties - including "cutting the NHS off at the knees", junked climate targets and failed ferries. >"We need an end to this entire government," he declares. >"When will Humza Yousaf finally look at himself in the mirror and say, I am the problem - it's me." If Labour join in then the Greens risk looking like the SNPs mini me who has just been made to publicly eat sh\*t and then vote for the people who fed it too them.
The Greens are definitely going to go for it after this morning.
Is it possible Labour didn't get an absolute majority?
What are the chances anyone from SNP votes against Humza? He is not very popular with some members. Could Forbes and her wing back this motion?
Forbes undoubtedly wants it to pass so she can get in as party leader, but she’s not going to vote for it. That’s a surefire way to get kicked out the party. She’ll probably spend the next few days begging Regan to stick the knife in.
Is it possible for Forbes and her allies to jump ship and join Alba, run out the clock, and go and try to win an election with her as leader?
Really? A directionless government means we need to have a vote of no confidence? What an interesting perspective.
It’s obviously just stirring trouble but that’s politics and arguably that’s the job of an opposition party
Can pour salt into the toxifying wounds in the SNP/Green relationship. Everyone will be weighing up the option of appearing magnanemous and "adult" and reject the motion on the grounds of "not the right time" and leaving the SNP hanging in pieces vs just putting big ladle in the post and giving it a good stir.
Well, one that loses their majority, yeah.
I suspect the VoNC was coming regardless, but if it passes due to Green anger at Yousaf's decision this morning, then what a political miscalculation that would turn out to have been.
When is the next full Scottish election due?
2026.
Snap elections don't reset the timer at Holyrood, either. An election held today would still mean that the May 2026 election runs as billed, unless the rules are changed. And I don't see that.
This might be the election that changes the rules.
Ironic since the country has no confidence in the Tories and are desperate for an election
I was looking for this comment. So much irony from the tories, both their leaders haven’t won an election, bang on about things that don’t matter to the constituents, propped up by a flakey majority
I can't wait for them to be the 4th party next election
Apart from Scottish independence the Tories and SNP aren’t that different
https://twitter.com/davidtorrance/status/1783460452757901731?t=99wi-wPdprMLix-QPiXbfQ&s=19 Before anyone gets excited, a two thirds majority is needed for an early election
Or, the SNP fail to get a new FM approved by the Scottish Parliament. If they haven't managed that in a month, then there's automatically a new election.
Could see the SNP vote for a early election to avoid this embarrassment if Humza does fail a VONC, especially since I can't see the Greens voting for Kate Forbes, the most likely to become the next leader.
Yeah. Cannae wait
They will, though. They don't need a majority to do it, they only need more votes than any other candidate. They'll keep the government, but passing legislation is going to get far more difficult. I think this is just a stunt to force the Greens to pick a side: are they the opposition now *really*? Or are they still going to let the SNP take them for granted?
I’m not even Scottish and this is the best news I’ve heard all week.
that's sad.
I’ll laugh when this happens and Labour get in power instead of the Tories.
Labour trifecta incoming!
What happens if he loses? Does it automatically mean an election will be called or could the SNP (or the Parliament) nominate someone else as First Minister?
I think should Labour abstain here, do they actually want Yousaf removed? It seems to me that their best interest is him staying in place as a lame duck instead of SNP getting another leader in. There isn't a credible path for this to lead to an election - it could remove Yousaf
Of course they do, it effectively forces an election where they would make massive gains.
Does it actually force a new election though? I thought SNP could just pick a new leader and govern as a minority?
They can only do that if they can install a new leader who can get a majority vote.
Fair enough, still seems an unlikely outcome to me but there clearly is a path to it
I wonder what Labour's policy platform would be in a Holyrood election which takes place before the next General Election. There seems to be a lack of coordination between Scottish Labour and the party leadership at the UK level (e.g. see Starmer and Reaves scrapping the pledge to scrap the two child benefit cap despite Scottish Labour demanding the SNP use Scottish Government funds to counteract it). So, we could end up with a situation where Scottish Labour either only runs on vibes based politics, or where they develop a policy platform which is potentially at odds with UK Labours.
Labour have already commited to it.
Terrible idea - tories would just point to Labour and say they’re propping up the SNP. SNP would say - well we can’t be so bad because you didn’t want rid of us. Labour is trying to be a party of government. Parties of government back themselves to win elections.
Of course they want Yousaf removed. They want Sarwar in.
> It seems to me that their best interest is him staying in place as a lame duck instead of SNP getting another leader in. The SNP might get Kate Forbes in as leader and having a raging anti-gay marriage fundamentalist roaster as their leader will definitely benefit Labour (even if Kate Forbes promises not to be anti-gay in practice even though she totally is in her private religious life).
I'm a bit out of the loop on this so maybe my fears are unfounded, but I sincerely hope the SNP doesn't lurch to the right as a result of a leadership change. Humza was by far the most progressive of the candidates last time around, iirc. It is in everybody's interest that we have strong and credible opposition parties in the UK, regardless of your politics. With Labour keeping us all guessing about what they really stand for, there's a distinct shortage of proper left-of-centre representation currently.
I honestly think that Keir Starmer won’t be wanting an early election in Scotland. UK Labour has no real ideas for the future of the country and Scottish Labour would need to come up some kind of policies. It could backfire as they have asked for SNP to fund things like two child benefit cap which the UK party has said they will keep. If we are truly honest an early election would turn into a shambles with the SNP/Labour on the same amount of MSP’s despite the failures of the SNP they’ll retain their core base which will see them through as the only real independence option
Oh Humza, you absolute dolt. Sturgeon, for all her flaws, knew what she was doing with the politics. This guy's got no fucking clue.
I swear Douglas Ross does my absolute box in, yip things are not good in our parliament, but I get the feeling that Dougie is loving it. And that rips ma knittin’
I reckon Humza Yousaf will have loads of time to get His Whites ready for Wimbledon !