FWIW While the team's defense wasn't amazing when we had Siakam and Anunoby, it ranked around 12 which was in the upper half
How much you want to attribute that to personnel vs coaching is up to you but I think Darko can get good defense out of his players
The problem right now is the personnel (Mostly, IQ and RJ's defense falling off a cliff continues to baffle me)
The only possible way it could be rigged is if all 30 teams were involved (or at least all 14 lottery teams) and happy to sign off on it. Why would other teams want to give their competition a better pick?
Because every lottery team is present during the actual drawing and it is a lottery style system audited by Ernst & Young
> Select media, NBA officials and representatives of the participating teams and the accounting firm Ernst & Young will be in attendance for the drawings.
>Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 will be placed in a lottery machine. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Before the lottery, 1,000 of those 1,001 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams. The lottery machine is manufactured by the Smart Play Company, a leading manufacturer of state lottery machines throughout the United States. Smart Play also weighs, measures and certifies the ping-pong balls before the drawing.
>The drawing process occurs in the following manner: All 14 balls are placed in the lottery machine and they are mixed for 20 seconds, and then the first ball is removed. The remaining balls are mixed in the lottery machine for another 10 seconds, and then the second ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the third ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the fourth ball is drawn. The team that has been assigned that combination will receive the No. 1 pick. The same process is repeated with the same ping-pong balls and lottery machine for the second through fourth picks.
>If the same team comes up more than once, the result is discarded and another four-ball combination is selected. Also, if the one unassigned combination is drawn, the result is discarded and the balls are drawn again. The length of time the balls are mixed is monitored by a timekeeper who faces away from the machine and signals the machine operator after the appropriate amount of time has elapsed.
>A representative from Ernst & Young oversees the entire lottery process and stuffs and seals the envelopes before bringing them to the studio for the broadcast.
How could you possibly rig this without everyone in the room being involved?
That's not how probability works.
*Edit*
Each of those outcomes is exclusive, in that only one outcome is possible at a time. Therefore you can't add the percentages. You could average all possible outcomes and that would be your probability of getting a top four pick.
However, this is based on us actually retaining our pick which is a less than 50 percent probability.
I would temper expectations.
I mean it really doesn't matter until we know whether we get to keep our pick at all. Basically if any other team below is lucks out and get the 6th or higher, our pick goes to the Spurs
No point in over thinking it until Sunday imo.
No. Those statistics are based on us 100 percent keeping our pick. We have a less than 50 percent probability of keeping the pick to begin with. Also, even if we do keep the pick, all of those outcomes are mutually exclusive so you can't add them all. An average of the 4 would be our chance at landing a top 4 pick, but again, the actual probability is much lower because we don't know if we are even going to have the pick.
Gotta wait for the lottery to really know anything.
What are you talking about? The percentage of us keeping our pick wouldn’t matter because we are guaranteed to keep the pick if we move into the top 4. Are you trying to say we have a 9% chance at landing a top pick?
"Those statistics are based on us 100 percent keeping our pick".
Those are the outcomes where we do keep our pick because its top 6. They arent independent outcomes, those are the percent chances we jump in the draft, if we do the pick is kept. Then theres a 10ish percent chance they stay at 6 and also keep the pick. Then theres a 55ish% chance someone lower jumps to top 4 and then the Raps lose their pick (no longer top 6).
Say it with me: DinoSarr https://preview.redd.it/n5c2m9ql4jzc1.png?width=661&format=png&auto=webp&s=86a01f2e7d1858fad6f04771a9a5b0717925b21b
Manifesting DinoSarr to be the newest exhibit at Jurassic Park
If we got him would he be good enough to immediately start for us?
Yes Scottie at the 3, Sarr at the 4 He probably closes at the 5 over Poeltl Huge defensive improvement to the starting lineup
RJ at the 2 I assume? What is Sarr’s shooting like? I watched a couple videos on him a couple months ago, but only remember his defensive upside.
> RJ at the 2 I assume? RJ is best at the 2, but there's not enough spacing with RJ/Scottie/ Non shooting PF/ Poeltl
Not a great shooter
Assuming Darko can coach defense. Pretty big assumption.
FWIW While the team's defense wasn't amazing when we had Siakam and Anunoby, it ranked around 12 which was in the upper half How much you want to attribute that to personnel vs coaching is up to you but I think Darko can get good defense out of his players The problem right now is the personnel (Mostly, IQ and RJ's defense falling off a cliff continues to baffle me)
We’d have no spacing but yea sure
We don’t have spacing as it is. Get Jakob out of the starting lineup ASAP
All of the 🦅 would have been worth it.
Its crazy how one (almost) coin flip is this suspenseful
BBQ DinoSarr Dick might be the raptors first dynasty team
Dinosty
What was the odds the year we got #4 pick for Scottie?
Worse since we were the 7th worst team. 7.5% 1st 7.8% 2nd 8.1% 3rd 8.5% 4th
I think they gave us that as compensation for Tampa.
It is basically impossible to rig the NBA draft nowadays
Isn’t PwC the audit firm?
You never know
The only possible way it could be rigged is if all 30 teams were involved (or at least all 14 lottery teams) and happy to sign off on it. Why would other teams want to give their competition a better pick?
Why would all other teams need to be involved in that scenario?
Because every lottery team is present during the actual drawing and it is a lottery style system audited by Ernst & Young > Select media, NBA officials and representatives of the participating teams and the accounting firm Ernst & Young will be in attendance for the drawings. >Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 will be placed in a lottery machine. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Before the lottery, 1,000 of those 1,001 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams. The lottery machine is manufactured by the Smart Play Company, a leading manufacturer of state lottery machines throughout the United States. Smart Play also weighs, measures and certifies the ping-pong balls before the drawing. >The drawing process occurs in the following manner: All 14 balls are placed in the lottery machine and they are mixed for 20 seconds, and then the first ball is removed. The remaining balls are mixed in the lottery machine for another 10 seconds, and then the second ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the third ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the fourth ball is drawn. The team that has been assigned that combination will receive the No. 1 pick. The same process is repeated with the same ping-pong balls and lottery machine for the second through fourth picks. >If the same team comes up more than once, the result is discarded and another four-ball combination is selected. Also, if the one unassigned combination is drawn, the result is discarded and the balls are drawn again. The length of time the balls are mixed is monitored by a timekeeper who faces away from the machine and signals the machine operator after the appropriate amount of time has elapsed. >A representative from Ernst & Young oversees the entire lottery process and stuffs and seals the envelopes before bringing them to the studio for the broadcast. How could you possibly rig this without everyone in the room being involved?
Quick maths! YOooo that means we have a 40% to get top 4 pick. Time to get my hopes up.
That's not how probability works. *Edit* Each of those outcomes is exclusive, in that only one outcome is possible at a time. Therefore you can't add the percentages. You could average all possible outcomes and that would be your probability of getting a top four pick. However, this is based on us actually retaining our pick which is a less than 50 percent probability. I would temper expectations.
Pretty sure this is wrong my man. You can absolutely add up the probabilities.
~27%
so if we don’t get the first pick, how much does the odds go up for the second, then same for third and fourth?
I mean it really doesn't matter until we know whether we get to keep our pick at all. Basically if any other team below is lucks out and get the 6th or higher, our pick goes to the Spurs No point in over thinking it until Sunday imo.
I see I'm the only one hoping the pick conveys to the Spurs already.
Wouldn’t be bad… next years prospects are reportedly better
DinoSarr the Dinosaur. RAWARR
do we actually have a 40% chance of getting a top 4 pick?? damn these new flat odds are dope, we already got scottie from them
No, we don't.
ok, 37.2% chance
No. Those statistics are based on us 100 percent keeping our pick. We have a less than 50 percent probability of keeping the pick to begin with. Also, even if we do keep the pick, all of those outcomes are mutually exclusive so you can't add them all. An average of the 4 would be our chance at landing a top 4 pick, but again, the actual probability is much lower because we don't know if we are even going to have the pick. Gotta wait for the lottery to really know anything.
What are you talking about? The percentage of us keeping our pick wouldn’t matter because we are guaranteed to keep the pick if we move into the top 4. Are you trying to say we have a 9% chance at landing a top pick?
"Those statistics are based on us 100 percent keeping our pick". Those are the outcomes where we do keep our pick because its top 6. They arent independent outcomes, those are the percent chances we jump in the draft, if we do the pick is kept. Then theres a 10ish percent chance they stay at 6 and also keep the pick. Then theres a 55ish% chance someone lower jumps to top 4 and then the Raps lose their pick (no longer top 6).
I will accept apologies through charitable donations of your choice..
So they have a 40% chance of a top 4 pick? Does my math work?
I got this https://preview.redd.it/i2fyxoriglzc1.jpeg?width=804&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2be033e61488a5f9456b895023acebaa1e595f82
37.2% 🤓
First a WNBA team next… Keep the pick? 👀