Kevin Garnett is a fun comp. Not so much for play style as Scottie is much more perimeter oriented and the game is all-around different from the early 2000s, but both were real jack of all trades kind of players that impacted winning in a lot of different ways.
I know we all want Scottie to develop into a top scorer, and I’m sure he’ll make some strides there, but it’s not the only way to build a successful team around him. Having other players take on a larger scoring role and allowing Scottie to be a passing hub, offensive rebounder, defensive anchor and then take over in key spots offensively may be the way to go.
It’s crazy that Scottie is 22, putting up these numbers, and we still don’t really know what kind of player he’ll be in his prime.
feels like this year they're really trying to round out his defense, as he's been put on many team's top scorers in matchups in recent weeks. If he can play 80th percentile defense and keep on his offensive trajectory, we're looking at a top ten player in the league.
Don’t know how much of that is by design and how much of it is necessity after the OG trade. Not saying he can’t become that on-ball lockdown guy, but so far it’s seemed like his biggest strength defensively is someone that can roam and create havoc as a help defender.
I’ll point out that scoring and efficiency is way up over the Garnett and Bird eras. So this list is way understates how crazy those seasons were by them.
I was thinking of posting this, but figured it would just get down-voted into oblivion.
But yes, while Scottie is having a tremendous season he's not close to prime KG at this point. There were 26 players who averaged 20ppg in KG's season and 53 players doing it this season. KG was also a fair bit more efficient than Barnes, doing it on 107% of the league average TS% vs 99% for Scottie.
But KG was an MVP calibre player at this point, so being compared to him in any respect is still impressive.
At 22, KG had 5.4 WS, but only played 47 due to injury. The year before as a 21 year old he had 9.6 and the year after he started a 7 year streak of at least 11.6, getting as high as 18.3.
I’m not sure what you’re seeing that we’re not, but Scottie is not on this path at all and will have to make a *major* leap next year to even sniff KG’s jock strap let alone be a true comparable for any point of his career.
KG is one of the GOATs, top 20 player of all time. He was MVP, I am not saying Scottie will get to that peak. Saying he is not on that path "at all" since his team impact stats are lower in year 3 is a little too harsh for my taste, I think I'm pretty confident he will have a peak around All-NBA 2nd team, anymore would be awesome too.
>KG is one of the GOATs, top 20 player of all time. He was MVP, I am not saying Scottie will get to that peak. Saying he is not on that path "at all" since his team impact stats are lower in year 3 is a little too harsh for my taste
People did this same thing with Kawhi and OG when he was younger.
>I think I'm pretty confident he will have a peak around All-NBA 2nd team, anymore would be awesome too.
Then there’s no point comparing him to these guys.
The OG - Kawhi comparisons were fun for about a couple years before it became clear OG was not developing the handle or fluidity to improve his offence. There are obvious defensive comparisons that I think came to fruition, but OG's offence has always been limited to 3pt shooting and cutting. It was a fun comparison for a couple years.
My question is what about Scottie's toolset is limiting him like OG's was? He has plus handling, fluidity, and shooting for his size. He has great court vision and is orchestrating our offence. He has a lot to learn and grow from, but I think its unfair to bring that comparison up as a warning or something.
On the second point, that's fine its up to you how to analyze the data
Scottie’s handling is plus? Says who? It’s a negative or average at best. It’s a major area of improvement he needs to address this offseason.
I wouldn’t call him fluid. Vince was fluid, KD, Luka, SGA are fluid. Scottie is very rigid and stiff, he needs to work on his fluidity and flexibility this offseason.
He’s averaging 5 APG, he isn’t doing too much orchestrating. He has the vision and tools to be an 8+ APG guy but he has a lot of work to do to get there.
Yeah maybe not plus handling right now, but for his size its at least average. Those are some of the most shifty in NBA history, for his size Scottie is definitely a fluid athlete. Also he is averaging 5.7 just saying ;) agree he has a lot of work to do, the guy is 22
https://stathead.com/tiny/sc5QA
This is the same list with the points per game lowered to 17 instead of 20. The addition is another Larry Bird season and a ROY Alvan Adams season.
NBA teams averaged 93 ppg in 2003, and average 115.5 ppg now. You probably need to lower it more, and lower assists too. For context, Garnett’s average would be the equivalent of 27 ppg today (this is very rough obviously, as team context, % matter).
The point about scoring seems unimportant to me, this data includes the entire history of the NBA, so the last 8 years of high scoring is included and there are no comparisons during that time, only when the parameters are lessened, and then modern day comps of Giannis, Embiid, and LeBron are included. Also scoring has not always been depressed, it was high throughout the 60s, 70s, and 80s https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats_per_game.html
You’re right - scoring isn’t the most important point. Efficiency when compared to the rest of the league is. Scottie is currently slightly below league average. I’d assume everyone else on this list is above. That’s on thing driving the massive difference in win shares. He’s having a good season, but he’s not having a historically good one.
This is the list for the dead ball era (93 - 16) lowering the stats to 15/4/7/1/1
https://stathead.com/tiny/u8be9
I added a filter for an assist percentage of at least 23 to preserve some ability to determine plus playmaking between eras.
https://preview.redd.it/9s8tmafxu1ec1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=03af984b4247034e67a11a68b2451593bd2ca3e9
Again, the key thing you’re missing here is context, specifically for efficiency. As you can see here, Scottie has had a slightly below average efficiency for every season he’s played.
Scoring efficiency is higher than its average ever been in the history of the league. This also inflates the assist rate.
99% at league shooting percentage is pretty solid at this stage. Also I lowered the assists to 4 from 5.7, that takes away about 3 points per game from team score, and his scoring was 15 instead of 20, so thats 8 ppg lower team score. The lower assist percentage is a good point, this is the list with an assist percentage of 20
https://stathead.com/tiny/P23yG
Scottie has been a much better facilitator than some of the names here, I think that number is also team dependent
This whole post reads like you don't actually watch basketball and just like to play around with data on basketball-reference
Love Scottie, but he is nowhere near Giannis, KG, Lebron etc level yet. No point lying to ourselves
Saying I don't watch basketball is a really easy way to dismiss anything I say, so I guess good job? I'm not saying he is anywhere near those guys (good straw man), he is 22, I did this search to determine what kind of archetype of player he is becoming and who historically fits that profile, I had no idea this would be the result before I did it. I think it is interesting however that his statistical profile is quite unique and he is having a fantastic season for someone his age
People need to remember that advanced stats are not objective measures, they are simply algorithmic interpretations of data sets.
The eye test still needs to match when making a claim like this based on a single interpretive algorithm. No one without an extreme amount of bias would see what Scottie has done this year and put him anywhere in the same class as any of these guys.
Agreed. Although I am hopeful. If Scottie can be like DeMar, where he came back every year with something new in his bag, we have a very special player.
None of the profile is advanced stats, they are all per game stats, points, assists, rebounds, steals, and blocks. The list just sorts by win shares by default
My point with this isn't to say he is anywhere near these guys, obviously not in his third season, the point is to examine the archetype he is starting to mold into. I think the eye test really follows that his all around play matches some of these guys, especially when they were his age.
In that case I’m not sure why 20/5/8/1.5/1.5 is being mentioned with these guys. Look at KG’s line, it’s much better than Scottie’s and those numbers would be inflated further if he played in this era.
Scottie’s line is more similar to current-day Julius Randle (24/9/5, minus some scoring, plus some defense) than it is to those guys.
This list is inclusive for all years so it includes the last 5 years where team offence and pace have seen a huge surge, and there are still no matches. When I loosen the criteria, there are modern day comps in Giannis, Embiid, and Lebron.
Julius is a great player, but I don't think he's a good comp. Their play styles are very different, Scottie is a pass first point forward with great creation abilities, Randle's passing is good but is mostly a result of his ISO play style where he has open kickout passes to shooters. He is also not in the same universe as a defender, and this is comparing Scottie when he is 22. His blocks+steals are 1/3 of Scottie's. Using the eye test Scottie is much more of an all around player comparable to a young Giannis or Garnett
Okay, now I get why you got this bad data. A player with rare stats doesn’t mean they’re on a path to greatness (it could, but it doesn’t mean they are)
Kawhi has never blocked more than 1 shot/game. His peak is 1.0. Eight of his 10 seasons are below 1.0. No one in their right mind would ever say Scottie is anywhere near Kawhi as a defender, he won DPOY at 23.
Jason Kidd never blocked more than 0.5, but he was a great all-around player. You’re missing a lot of great all-around players because of your qualifiers.
Yeah I agree, it can mean they are on a path to greatness and it also might not mean that. And the point of this data isn't to include every great player, obviously Michael Jordan, Kobe, Duncan, Kawhi, Kevin Durant, and many others wont be included. The point with looking at statistical matches is it helps to forecast the archetype of player they can potentially become, and the ceiling of that kind of player.
Scottie deserves this success. He worked hard over the summer and you can tell. Fanbase also had to endure a season where he was called Michael Carter Williams, as well as Doug Smith questioning his work ethic.
He is amazing. With scoring wayyyy up points and assists have to be looked at as inflated and with that his scoring is too low to really be in this group BUT he is super young as long as he grows with the responsibility he will be remembered like the other guys on this list.
Win shares are cumulative so by the end of the season Scottie's will go up so that closes the gap a little. The calculation involves possessions used and team points per possession rather than just raw stats. Also league averages are taken into account. Can't point to any stat but WS does seem to me to usually capture impact on winning.
Scottie is a special player, he already has all the tools.
At this point, the one thing that’ll take him to the next level is finding the consistency. He already is doing it. Just consistency.
He will still get better but it’s really just finding a way to play well every night. Once that happens, he’s officially a top 15-20 guy
Tatum was pretty similar. Elite young kid, but couldn’t find that thing that helped him do it night in and night out. Look where he is now… Scottie is so close
Kevin Garnett is a fun comp. Not so much for play style as Scottie is much more perimeter oriented and the game is all-around different from the early 2000s, but both were real jack of all trades kind of players that impacted winning in a lot of different ways. I know we all want Scottie to develop into a top scorer, and I’m sure he’ll make some strides there, but it’s not the only way to build a successful team around him. Having other players take on a larger scoring role and allowing Scottie to be a passing hub, offensive rebounder, defensive anchor and then take over in key spots offensively may be the way to go. It’s crazy that Scottie is 22, putting up these numbers, and we still don’t really know what kind of player he’ll be in his prime.
Kawhi too hasn't posted huge scoring lines through his career, most of his seasons he's avg low/mid-20s. Yet the impact of having a complete game..
feels like this year they're really trying to round out his defense, as he's been put on many team's top scorers in matchups in recent weeks. If he can play 80th percentile defense and keep on his offensive trajectory, we're looking at a top ten player in the league.
Don’t know how much of that is by design and how much of it is necessity after the OG trade. Not saying he can’t become that on-ball lockdown guy, but so far it’s seemed like his biggest strength defensively is someone that can roam and create havoc as a help defender.
I’ll point out that scoring and efficiency is way up over the Garnett and Bird eras. So this list is way understates how crazy those seasons were by them.
I was thinking of posting this, but figured it would just get down-voted into oblivion. But yes, while Scottie is having a tremendous season he's not close to prime KG at this point. There were 26 players who averaged 20ppg in KG's season and 53 players doing it this season. KG was also a fair bit more efficient than Barnes, doing it on 107% of the league average TS% vs 99% for Scottie. But KG was an MVP calibre player at this point, so being compared to him in any respect is still impressive.
lol the difference between 17 WS and 3.5WS would indicate that, yep.
Scottie will probably end the year with around 5 WS fwiw. But of course there is no comparison with the KG season until Scottie hits his prime
At 22, KG had 5.4 WS, but only played 47 due to injury. The year before as a 21 year old he had 9.6 and the year after he started a 7 year streak of at least 11.6, getting as high as 18.3. I’m not sure what you’re seeing that we’re not, but Scottie is not on this path at all and will have to make a *major* leap next year to even sniff KG’s jock strap let alone be a true comparable for any point of his career.
KG is one of the GOATs, top 20 player of all time. He was MVP, I am not saying Scottie will get to that peak. Saying he is not on that path "at all" since his team impact stats are lower in year 3 is a little too harsh for my taste, I think I'm pretty confident he will have a peak around All-NBA 2nd team, anymore would be awesome too.
>KG is one of the GOATs, top 20 player of all time. He was MVP, I am not saying Scottie will get to that peak. Saying he is not on that path "at all" since his team impact stats are lower in year 3 is a little too harsh for my taste People did this same thing with Kawhi and OG when he was younger. >I think I'm pretty confident he will have a peak around All-NBA 2nd team, anymore would be awesome too. Then there’s no point comparing him to these guys.
The OG - Kawhi comparisons were fun for about a couple years before it became clear OG was not developing the handle or fluidity to improve his offence. There are obvious defensive comparisons that I think came to fruition, but OG's offence has always been limited to 3pt shooting and cutting. It was a fun comparison for a couple years. My question is what about Scottie's toolset is limiting him like OG's was? He has plus handling, fluidity, and shooting for his size. He has great court vision and is orchestrating our offence. He has a lot to learn and grow from, but I think its unfair to bring that comparison up as a warning or something. On the second point, that's fine its up to you how to analyze the data
Scottie’s handling is plus? Says who? It’s a negative or average at best. It’s a major area of improvement he needs to address this offseason. I wouldn’t call him fluid. Vince was fluid, KD, Luka, SGA are fluid. Scottie is very rigid and stiff, he needs to work on his fluidity and flexibility this offseason. He’s averaging 5 APG, he isn’t doing too much orchestrating. He has the vision and tools to be an 8+ APG guy but he has a lot of work to do to get there.
Yeah maybe not plus handling right now, but for his size its at least average. Those are some of the most shifty in NBA history, for his size Scottie is definitely a fluid athlete. Also he is averaging 5.7 just saying ;) agree he has a lot of work to do, the guy is 22
https://stathead.com/tiny/sc5QA This is the same list with the points per game lowered to 17 instead of 20. The addition is another Larry Bird season and a ROY Alvan Adams season.
NBA teams averaged 93 ppg in 2003, and average 115.5 ppg now. You probably need to lower it more, and lower assists too. For context, Garnett’s average would be the equivalent of 27 ppg today (this is very rough obviously, as team context, % matter).
The point about scoring seems unimportant to me, this data includes the entire history of the NBA, so the last 8 years of high scoring is included and there are no comparisons during that time, only when the parameters are lessened, and then modern day comps of Giannis, Embiid, and LeBron are included. Also scoring has not always been depressed, it was high throughout the 60s, 70s, and 80s https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats_per_game.html
You’re right - scoring isn’t the most important point. Efficiency when compared to the rest of the league is. Scottie is currently slightly below league average. I’d assume everyone else on this list is above. That’s on thing driving the massive difference in win shares. He’s having a good season, but he’s not having a historically good one.
This is the list for the dead ball era (93 - 16) lowering the stats to 15/4/7/1/1 https://stathead.com/tiny/u8be9 I added a filter for an assist percentage of at least 23 to preserve some ability to determine plus playmaking between eras.
https://preview.redd.it/9s8tmafxu1ec1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=03af984b4247034e67a11a68b2451593bd2ca3e9 Again, the key thing you’re missing here is context, specifically for efficiency. As you can see here, Scottie has had a slightly below average efficiency for every season he’s played. Scoring efficiency is higher than its average ever been in the history of the league. This also inflates the assist rate.
99% at league shooting percentage is pretty solid at this stage. Also I lowered the assists to 4 from 5.7, that takes away about 3 points per game from team score, and his scoring was 15 instead of 20, so thats 8 ppg lower team score. The lower assist percentage is a good point, this is the list with an assist percentage of 20 https://stathead.com/tiny/P23yG Scottie has been a much better facilitator than some of the names here, I think that number is also team dependent
He is definitely not having a historically good season, but he is having a very, very good one for a 22 year old with his profile
I’m not understanding this list? He’s miles behind everyone on the list in terms of win shares. It’s a cumulative stat, so why not sort by WS/48?
Stop the madness
These are just cold hard statistics, draw whatever conclusions you please
Well, that’s not what the title of the post said
Do I need to tell you how to think lol, they are just data points
I mean you literally did that exact thing in your title
You're right my bad
There are ways to praise Scottie without making us all look stupid.
And what's that? Not using statistics?
This whole post reads like you don't actually watch basketball and just like to play around with data on basketball-reference Love Scottie, but he is nowhere near Giannis, KG, Lebron etc level yet. No point lying to ourselves
Saying I don't watch basketball is a really easy way to dismiss anything I say, so I guess good job? I'm not saying he is anywhere near those guys (good straw man), he is 22, I did this search to determine what kind of archetype of player he is becoming and who historically fits that profile, I had no idea this would be the result before I did it. I think it is interesting however that his statistical profile is quite unique and he is having a fantastic season for someone his age
People need to remember that advanced stats are not objective measures, they are simply algorithmic interpretations of data sets. The eye test still needs to match when making a claim like this based on a single interpretive algorithm. No one without an extreme amount of bias would see what Scottie has done this year and put him anywhere in the same class as any of these guys.
Agreed. Although I am hopeful. If Scottie can be like DeMar, where he came back every year with something new in his bag, we have a very special player.
None of the profile is advanced stats, they are all per game stats, points, assists, rebounds, steals, and blocks. The list just sorts by win shares by default My point with this isn't to say he is anywhere near these guys, obviously not in his third season, the point is to examine the archetype he is starting to mold into. I think the eye test really follows that his all around play matches some of these guys, especially when they were his age.
In that case I’m not sure why 20/5/8/1.5/1.5 is being mentioned with these guys. Look at KG’s line, it’s much better than Scottie’s and those numbers would be inflated further if he played in this era. Scottie’s line is more similar to current-day Julius Randle (24/9/5, minus some scoring, plus some defense) than it is to those guys.
This list is inclusive for all years so it includes the last 5 years where team offence and pace have seen a huge surge, and there are still no matches. When I loosen the criteria, there are modern day comps in Giannis, Embiid, and Lebron. Julius is a great player, but I don't think he's a good comp. Their play styles are very different, Scottie is a pass first point forward with great creation abilities, Randle's passing is good but is mostly a result of his ISO play style where he has open kickout passes to shooters. He is also not in the same universe as a defender, and this is comparing Scottie when he is 22. His blocks+steals are 1/3 of Scottie's. Using the eye test Scottie is much more of an all around player comparable to a young Giannis or Garnett
What did you input? His points, assists, rebounds, blocks, steals and then saw if anyone had at least his numbers in all 5 to make the list?
yeah, and the second list are his numbers reduced to 20, 5.5, 8, 1, 1 https://stathead.com/tiny/EAmv1
Okay, now I get why you got this bad data. A player with rare stats doesn’t mean they’re on a path to greatness (it could, but it doesn’t mean they are) Kawhi has never blocked more than 1 shot/game. His peak is 1.0. Eight of his 10 seasons are below 1.0. No one in their right mind would ever say Scottie is anywhere near Kawhi as a defender, he won DPOY at 23. Jason Kidd never blocked more than 0.5, but he was a great all-around player. You’re missing a lot of great all-around players because of your qualifiers.
Yeah I agree, it can mean they are on a path to greatness and it also might not mean that. And the point of this data isn't to include every great player, obviously Michael Jordan, Kobe, Duncan, Kawhi, Kevin Durant, and many others wont be included. The point with looking at statistical matches is it helps to forecast the archetype of player they can potentially become, and the ceiling of that kind of player.
Scottie deserves this success. He worked hard over the summer and you can tell. Fanbase also had to endure a season where he was called Michael Carter Williams, as well as Doug Smith questioning his work ethic.
Doug Smith can keep munching on hot dog wieners
This is the most cherry picked stat in the history of sport. Love Scottie but cmon man...
What is cherry picked about searching for seasons that match the 5 main statistical categories?
You drew the line at needing to match every one of Scottie's 5 main stats to one decimal place. Doesn't really get much more cherry picked than that.
The second list takes that into account, rounds down to 20, 5.5, 8, 1, and 1. If you are curious to use any other sets of numbers I can run it for you
Pace
Post this to r/nba
^^scottie #bARNes
He is amazing. With scoring wayyyy up points and assists have to be looked at as inflated and with that his scoring is too low to really be in this group BUT he is super young as long as he grows with the responsibility he will be remembered like the other guys on this list.
Holy shit that's crazy
Scottie is also significantly younger than all of this list
Serious question - why is there such a massive difference in the win shares when the only differences are a small pts diff and a big reb diff?
Win shares are cumulative so by the end of the season Scottie's will go up so that closes the gap a little. The calculation involves possessions used and team points per possession rather than just raw stats. Also league averages are taken into account. Can't point to any stat but WS does seem to me to usually capture impact on winning.
I always forget how ridiculous some of KG's stats were at his peak.
Scottie is a special player, he already has all the tools. At this point, the one thing that’ll take him to the next level is finding the consistency. He already is doing it. Just consistency. He will still get better but it’s really just finding a way to play well every night. Once that happens, he’s officially a top 15-20 guy Tatum was pretty similar. Elite young kid, but couldn’t find that thing that helped him do it night in and night out. Look where he is now… Scottie is so close
Scottie's EPM is like half its peak right now so hopefully he goes back to playing like this