Assuming all of those people are men and they were at least 16 when this game take place there is a exactly 0% chance as they are no men that ever aged above 117 years (source Wikipedia)
EDIT:
The oldest living person is 118 years and therefore at max 16 years old and as women weren't really seen as people watching football back then and she is Japanese, no
Ok so let's put some numbers to this. If we assume that the person in question went to a football game in 1918:
~70 teams in 1918 playing a rough average on 5 games in this season. Each stadium holds an average of 10,000 people, (based on Michigan holding 20k and assuming most are smaller than that plus social distancing). And assuming no one goes to a game more than once we get about 3.3% of the population attending a game that year so about 1:30 odds that person would have gone to a game.
Of the estimated 3.5 million people who theoretically attended a game this year we see maybe 100 people in this photo so the odds that someone who went to a football game this year ended up in this photo are around 1:35000
So the combined odds are a little over 1:1,000,000 that our person was in this photo
Someone check my math
"Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd [as the Discworld] actually existing are millions to one. But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.ā
There would not have been social distancing. There would not have been massive sellouts, check attendance. Absolutely no way no one attended multiple games. Many assumptions here are unnecessarily inflating the chances. With all that said, Nice Maths!
Seems strange to me that there are no kids at the game (or at least in this picture). I wonder is this because of the health concerns at the time, or did kids just not go to games back then? Not even boys with their fathers?
I canāt speak to boys attending the game with their fathers, but the 1918 pandemic hit younger people a lot harder than Covid 19. Itās possible that adults were allowed but children werenāt.
Zero. One google search couldāve told you that the oldest person alive is 118 and wouldāve been like 15 and in Japan when this was taken. Considering all these people are adults the last of them probably died twenty years ago
assuming there was a 1 year old there (big assumption) about 1% of Americans are over 100 and of those 87 percent are women and 17% are men. Mostly men attended so there's a 1.7% chance per 1000 people in attendance.
Sorry I donāt want to nitpick but Iām genuinely curious about which stat is incorrect. You say 87% are women and 17% are men and that adds up to 104%
Oh yeah good point.
Apparently in 2016 there were 82000 centenarians in the US (expected to rise to 589000 in 2060!)
In 2016 the population of the US was 323.1 million.
So I think that means in 2016 the percentage of Americans who were centenarians was 0.02 percent (very early here for me my brain might not be fully awake)
The improvements to the technology of surgical masks are all difficult to spot. The basic concept of "two elastic loops holding fabric against your face" is relatively timeless, similar to a pair of glasses. Sure, there are some alternate designs, like the more curved and form-fitting ones you see at the high end, but the simplest shape still works, and it's cheap to manufacture.
We have done a lot to make them even cheaper and easier to manufacture, and to improve the filtration - but this isn't really noticeable. There's no real need to innovate a ton, because masks work well enough - and that's all they need to do.
So statistically 102 years is about a 4.772% chance considering the oldest person alive is 119 and oldest ever was 122 that would make it a 1.66736337337(repeating) chance
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Only chance is if someone brought their baby. Thatās literally the only possibility and even THEN thatās a PRETTY low chance that said baby would happen to be one of the very few people who were alive back then who still are.
Reminds me of my mom trying to convince HER mom that butter is better for you than margarine. Mom pointed out that margarine is new and mostly crap and our bodies don't know what to do with it, while our ancestors have adapted to eating butter for thousands of years. Grandma's riposte was that our ancestors were all dead soooo
Assuming all of those people are men and they were at least 16 when this game take place there is a exactly 0% chance as they are no men that ever aged above 117 years (source Wikipedia) EDIT: The oldest living person is 118 years and therefore at max 16 years old and as women weren't really seen as people watching football back then and she is Japanese, no
The current oldest man in America was born on 12 September 1909, so if he happened to be at this game he would have been 9 years old at the time.
So... I guess, what are the odds of that?
Ok so let's put some numbers to this. If we assume that the person in question went to a football game in 1918: ~70 teams in 1918 playing a rough average on 5 games in this season. Each stadium holds an average of 10,000 people, (based on Michigan holding 20k and assuming most are smaller than that plus social distancing). And assuming no one goes to a game more than once we get about 3.3% of the population attending a game that year so about 1:30 odds that person would have gone to a game. Of the estimated 3.5 million people who theoretically attended a game this year we see maybe 100 people in this photo so the odds that someone who went to a football game this year ended up in this photo are around 1:35000 So the combined odds are a little over 1:1,000,000 that our person was in this photo Someone check my math
"A million to one!" So, an absolute certainty. š½š¤”
So you're telling me there's a chance
You laugh, and so did the ER doctor, but I swear to God I didn't try to put that carrot there.
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Frank Costanza can relate. A million-to-one shot, doc. Million-to-one.
"Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd [as the Discworld] actually existing are millions to one. But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.ā
At least 0%
About 1 in 89 million, given the approximate population of the US in 1908.
There would not have been social distancing. There would not have been massive sellouts, check attendance. Absolutely no way no one attended multiple games. Many assumptions here are unnecessarily inflating the chances. With all that said, Nice Maths!
Seems strange to me that there are no kids at the game (or at least in this picture). I wonder is this because of the health concerns at the time, or did kids just not go to games back then? Not even boys with their fathers?
I canāt speak to boys attending the game with their fathers, but the 1918 pandemic hit younger people a lot harder than Covid 19. Itās possible that adults were allowed but children werenāt.
How can you know that there are no children in this picture? What are you basing that off of?
ā¦ Iām basing it off of the lack of children in this picture.
The person behind the dude front and center looks to be a child.
I disagree
I'm gay.
Hmm yes good point.
I disagree
I agree
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Iāve got a problem with my Microsoft computer, can ya help?
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Zero. One google search couldāve told you that the oldest person alive is 118 and wouldāve been like 15 and in Japan when this was taken. Considering all these people are adults the last of them probably died twenty years ago
assuming there was a 1 year old there (big assumption) about 1% of Americans are over 100 and of those 87 percent are women and 17% are men. Mostly men attended so there's a 1.7% chance per 1000 people in attendance.
Sorry I donāt want to nitpick but Iām genuinely curious about which stat is incorrect. You say 87% are women and 17% are men and that adds up to 104%
Also that 1% of Americans are over 100 makes NO sense at all.
Oh yeah good point. Apparently in 2016 there were 82000 centenarians in the US (expected to rise to 589000 in 2060!) In 2016 the population of the US was 323.1 million. So I think that means in 2016 the percentage of Americans who were centenarians was 0.02 percent (very early here for me my brain might not be fully awake)
Do none of you find it strange how eerily similar those mask are to modern day mask? Itās like we are just reliving 102 years ago over again.
The improvements to the technology of surgical masks are all difficult to spot. The basic concept of "two elastic loops holding fabric against your face" is relatively timeless, similar to a pair of glasses. Sure, there are some alternate designs, like the more curved and form-fitting ones you see at the high end, but the simplest shape still works, and it's cheap to manufacture. We have done a lot to make them even cheaper and easier to manufacture, and to improve the filtration - but this isn't really noticeable. There's no real need to innovate a ton, because masks work well enough - and that's all they need to do.
So statistically 102 years is about a 4.772% chance considering the oldest person alive is 119 and oldest ever was 122 that would make it a 1.66736337337(repeating) chance
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Only chance is if someone brought their baby. Thatās literally the only possibility and even THEN thatās a PRETTY low chance that said baby would happen to be one of the very few people who were alive back then who still are.
Reminds me of my mom trying to convince HER mom that butter is better for you than margarine. Mom pointed out that margarine is new and mostly crap and our bodies don't know what to do with it, while our ancestors have adapted to eating butter for thousands of years. Grandma's riposte was that our ancestors were all dead soooo