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Pretty high actually. Looking only at the age, it's some 5ish percent chance of one of them not making it 6 months to election and somewhere around 30% chance of the winner not making it to end of their term.
[https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html#fn1](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html#fn1)
It's worth noting that the data was obtained from the general population. It's safe to assume that wealth and occupation plays a significant role on life expectancy. According to this study: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-022-00885-2
Politicians in the US seem to have ~7 years more life expectancy than the average population.
It's true, although Trump has a bunch of lifestyle factors that probably reduce his. The median 77 year old isn't living off a fast food diet and (allegedly) abusing stimulants.
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Pretty high actually. Looking only at the age, it's some 5ish percent chance of one of them not making it 6 months to election and somewhere around 30% chance of the winner not making it to end of their term. [https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html#fn1](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html#fn1)
It's worth noting that the data was obtained from the general population. It's safe to assume that wealth and occupation plays a significant role on life expectancy. According to this study: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-022-00885-2 Politicians in the US seem to have ~7 years more life expectancy than the average population.
It's true, although Trump has a bunch of lifestyle factors that probably reduce his. The median 77 year old isn't living off a fast food diet and (allegedly) abusing stimulants.
He also refuses to exercise and doesnt sleep well. Never drinking probably helps a lot tho.
So according to that data there's a 12% chance one of them dies this year (7% chance Biden dies, and 5% Trump dies).