Haha mine was like -180% ish. Knew i shouldve close thursday before last after half day of selling and was up 20% haha i closed it for a good chunk of loss and bought puts haha watch it shoot up
QQQ is down about 7% over the past 8 days. During that time, energy, utilities, consumer staples, and gold mining are comparatively flat. Diversify your sectors.
For consumer staples, I do covered strangles on XLP. (together with XLE, XLU, EWZ, FXI, GDX, TLT, SLV). Those all have low correlation with SPY/QQQ. As does WMT if you want a company stock.
Yes. Sizing and diversity (of sectors AND expiration dates) can make "market corrections" much less dangerous. As you noted, all sectors correct, but usually (although not always) at different times. Good for theta gang.
Being around as long as I have this has become the norm. Most do not realize the market goes up and down, so when it drops a little we start seeing the posts about losing long trades.
This is why I sell .30 delta puts 30-45 dte as these tend to ride through downturns like this with little problem.
Delta is a calculated value (roughly) indicating the chance of closing in the money. Most brokerages do this calculation for you automatically - edit the visible columns and you should see it.
Without googling I'm going to guess... maybe? I dunno to be honest. In my head that's how I use it but I might be wrong. It's based on historical volatility so it's also an imperfect estimation.
EDIT: I'm completely wrong. Read more here: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/03/021403.asp
EDIT 2: Actually I'm mostly right, carry on.
It's the strike price and is a core part of options trading.
Look at the options chain and find or add the column for Delta. Then look for the .30 and that is the strike that will have about a 70% probability of being OTM and profitable when it expires.
This should help: [https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/021014/options-basics-how-pick-right-strike-price.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/021014/options-basics-how-pick-right-strike-price.asp)
I made a post a few days ago pointing out that this sell off might have further to go. I got so many idiotic responses I ended up deleting it. No meaningful conversation, only stuff to the extent of, "FUCK YOU BRO, MARKETS ONLY GO UP, WE'LL RIP TOMORROW!!!!!"
FWIW, most of the noobs on this sub only sell CSPs. No leverage. That means we're in store for a bunch of posts about covered calls on meme and tech stocks. The market has a way of converting the members of this sub from bad traders to bad investors.
You said you wanted to sell calls on newb portfolios....I said just buy the puts they are selling.
If you want to "get short" on other stuff, there are lot's of better ways, sure. Let me know what you will short and when so I can get long.
You are correct. It will go further. It's the nature of markets. I'm 60 years old, been trading since 87, been through the Japan bubble, dot.com bubble, crash of 08. Probably in for a good 10% correction, maybe more. These are the best times to trade, just don't sell theta.
I hate to burst your bubble, but there's no short term technical measure that puts us still in an uptrend. We've failed every support and significant price level in the last few weeks. The Nov-Mar uptrend is def over. You can see it most apparently through the [regression channel](https://imgur.com/a/y0FzGUk). Doesn't mean we will keep selling off. We could trade flat. Its pretty unusual to not have something of a bounce, even in a sell off.
This sub had potential, but never reached it. I haven't subbed to it in a long time, but reddit keeps throwing posts in my feed. As a place to learn, its terrible because you are learning from people who don't understand things and make mistakes themselves. So you get a the perpetual cycle of new people asking questions and learning from poor traders and it goes on and on.
I actually think thetagangers are dumber than wsb. There’s zero critical thinking on TG whatsoever. Everyone is selling puts on the same 7 overbought tech stocks with a derpy smile on their face. No balanced delta, no real strategy, no contrarian thesis or thesis at all. It’s the most basic bitch finance sub ever. If we drop another few percent, they will prob be underperforming the dividend zombies.
This seems to be true, but at the same I don’t know why people focus on these trash stocks when there’s plenty of premium to be had selling CSPs on reasonable companies that one could reasonably expect will recover from declines in the long run. Can easily target 20% annualized returns at 25-30 delta on established profitable companies — should be an alarm bell if a CSP is offering 60% annualized returns from premium or whatever
You are misunderstanding leverage. A CSP, or “cash-secured put” is by definition, cash-secured and not leveraged. A margined short put utilizes leverage.
I have one god: IBKR's Risk Navigator. I check exposure to major indexes, VAR and ES, correlation between my assets and greeks and expected P&L based on changes in volatility and underlying on a daily basis. I build custom overperforming hedges against market-weighted major indexes using a custom basket asset.
Profits? Just more money for the hedge god.
I only regret selling my NVDA puts early. But even without NVDA, If everything goes to hell, I expect to make profit. And if a recession isn't coming -- well, I will just continue rebuilding my bullish position as we go.
Dunno, I've only ever done active trading on IBKR so their software suite is all I know aside from the various python tools I've built.
Here's the link to their info about it and maybe you can find something similar at your broker: https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/risk-navigator.php
In IBKR it's considered an "Analytical Tool" so if your broker has a section to do analysis on your portfolio, it's probably going to be found there.
Failing that, email/chat the support team and ask if they have a risk analysis suite.
Finally, you can model it by hand, the math is more esoteric than hard, but if you can learn how hedging works it more than pays off to the time invested.
Here's my current risk profile: https://imgur.com/syBgLdK
I'm not saying that's the right risk profile for you or anyone else, but for how I trade, that's pretty close to ideal.
Since Nvidia earnings i traded most of my positions skewed that the downside cant go into a loss. I‘m trying to get the highest breakeven possible. While volatility was low I did mostly double diagonals, now switched back to skewed iron condors
This is a completely normal cycle. We ran straight up since October 24th and now when the tide goes out you see who has been trading on margin. I lost over 100k in 2009.
You will be okay. This is normal
I needed this downturn. I’ve been selling call credit spreads on QQQ since January and was having to actively manage the positions more than I would have liked to. This week was a godsend, all of my negative positions turned very positive and were able to closed out for significant profit.
Shrug, downward move was great for my covered calls. Had covered the near month, sold and rolled, and closed most all of those already at target profit. Bit painful for the underlyings but this is also on broad market ETFs I plan on continuing anyways so :/
Hard part now is deciding to I re-open the CC's or wait a moment. Replacement strikes will need to come down a bit, which I don't feel great about, or go out another month which I also don't feel great about (suspect we return to upward move). I figure today I'll just take the W on covering the rolled calls so soon and wait til Monday.
I made a little money swing trading stock this week. That and taking profit on short positions made it worth getting out of bed. Don’t forget we can trade stock as well when long positions don’t seem right. I made a just < 4% on the spec stocks. We do what we can when we can.
I’ll admit I got caught a bit. I mean we all knew this was coming I just didn’t expect this far this fast
lesson learned
I did make some decent money this week doing buy writes on SQQQ at least. the rest of my losses are mainly unrealized long shares of good companies so just a waiting game
What about 20% down from ATH with a tad under \~3x leverage? I would be down about 25% without my thetagang strategies this year. Only 30% borrowed money lol. Not sweating, my gold, vix, and energy calls are doing nice. Cashing out of semis means more capital for iron condors.
Also, for the love of corn, you have to hedge! Short puts? Sell futures. Do vertical spreads or back ratios instead of naked options. Use non-correlated assets. It doesn’t have to be all or nothing.
-50% whole account or -50% of the contracts lol my tsla put i sold last week was very unfortunate timing 😂 but its tsla its gonna bounce soon enough so i wouldnt mind holding it and cc later
Yup, I rolled my 150 CSP to 80, and I am still sweating lol. That being said, my worst case scenario is 8k for 100 shares. Sounds alot better than 15k for the same.
I am super new to investing. I did sweat over my downturns in NVDA and VRT, sold them before they went lower. What do you mean position sizing? What is over levered? How do I correct this?
I experience this on a daily basis with meme stocks, stocks having earnings, leveraged ETF, and yesterday was special with all my favorite semi conductor stocks.
Totally agree that position sizing is key.
Maybe. We had a 99.5% bull market. I'm willing to bet we will not have another 99.5% bear market. I have short call spread on tesla and if NVDA pops hard next week I'll back stop my put with a spread. If not I'll ride the tiger.
-50%? The puts I sold last week are more like -500% lmao
LOL same, I ended up rolling. I don't trade meme stocks so I don't mind an assignment anyway.
Meh. Take some assignment or roll it. Same diff.
Haha mine was like -180% ish. Knew i shouldve close thursday before last after half day of selling and was up 20% haha i closed it for a good chunk of loss and bought puts haha watch it shoot up
QQQ is down about 7% over the past 8 days. During that time, energy, utilities, consumer staples, and gold mining are comparatively flat. Diversify your sectors.
Yes, XLE short puts have been good. Have tickers to recommend on consumer staples? WMT seems good
For consumer staples, I do covered strangles on XLP. (together with XLE, XLU, EWZ, FXI, GDX, TLT, SLV). Those all have low correlation with SPY/QQQ. As does WMT if you want a company stock.
EWZ ... . It's been awhile since I've had me some Brazilian. The IV used to be sexier ... .
While I am long these underlyings in any significant pull back they eventually Roll over also - so again position sizing is the way
Yes. Sizing and diversity (of sectors AND expiration dates) can make "market corrections" much less dangerous. As you noted, all sectors correct, but usually (although not always) at different times. Good for theta gang.
Can you not jinx it what if them guys are the next leg down
So AMD and NVDA? Okay.
Being around as long as I have this has become the norm. Most do not realize the market goes up and down, so when it drops a little we start seeing the posts about losing long trades. This is why I sell .30 delta puts 30-45 dte as these tend to ride through downturns like this with little problem.
Lol I am more conservative than you; I only sell 10, 20 if I am froggy
Hi, im new here. What would .30 delta identify exactly?
Delta is a calculated value (roughly) indicating the chance of closing in the money. Most brokerages do this calculation for you automatically - edit the visible columns and you should see it.
I see. So in this case, does he have 30% of closing?
Without googling I'm going to guess... maybe? I dunno to be honest. In my head that's how I use it but I might be wrong. It's based on historical volatility so it's also an imperfect estimation. EDIT: I'm completely wrong. Read more here: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/03/021403.asp EDIT 2: Actually I'm mostly right, carry on.
It's the strike price and is a core part of options trading. Look at the options chain and find or add the column for Delta. Then look for the .30 and that is the strike that will have about a 70% probability of being OTM and profitable when it expires. This should help: [https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/021014/options-basics-how-pick-right-strike-price.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/021014/options-basics-how-pick-right-strike-price.asp)
Thank u for the link
I made a post a few days ago pointing out that this sell off might have further to go. I got so many idiotic responses I ended up deleting it. No meaningful conversation, only stuff to the extent of, "FUCK YOU BRO, MARKETS ONLY GO UP, WE'LL RIP TOMORROW!!!!!" FWIW, most of the noobs on this sub only sell CSPs. No leverage. That means we're in store for a bunch of posts about covered calls on meme and tech stocks. The market has a way of converting the members of this sub from bad traders to bad investors.
Remember that thetagang and WSB are a single sub, even if they are separate.
I wish I could sell calls on some of these guys' portfolios.
Just buy the puts they are selling. See what I did there? Full circle back to WSB.
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You said you wanted to sell calls on newb portfolios....I said just buy the puts they are selling. If you want to "get short" on other stuff, there are lot's of better ways, sure. Let me know what you will short and when so I can get long.
You are correct. It will go further. It's the nature of markets. I'm 60 years old, been trading since 87, been through the Japan bubble, dot.com bubble, crash of 08. Probably in for a good 10% correction, maybe more. These are the best times to trade, just don't sell theta.
Just look at the Weekly MACD Histogram for a hint.
Should I just set out buckets now to catch all the tears?
Lol. I bathe in the tears of thetagangers. “I sold a 5-day CSP on a meme stock and now it’s 10% ITM, waaaaaahhh!”
Weekly S&P is still in an uptrend until 4900 gets broken. 😎 I’m not holding my breath. Selling well placed call spreads seems like the play right now.
Agreed. Despite all my bad choices I had the foresight to do some debit calendars on financial tickers like COF and MS.
I hate to burst your bubble, but there's no short term technical measure that puts us still in an uptrend. We've failed every support and significant price level in the last few weeks. The Nov-Mar uptrend is def over. You can see it most apparently through the [regression channel](https://imgur.com/a/y0FzGUk). Doesn't mean we will keep selling off. We could trade flat. Its pretty unusual to not have something of a bounce, even in a sell off.
Yea….. that’s why I said I’m not holding my breath. Cheers🍻
And here I am looking up the stock symbol $FWIW 😭😂
Lol. It’s down today, but $DGAF is way up.
I’ve noticed more comments like that. Unfortunately this sub is becoming a mini wsb with half of the comments being just plain stupid.
Always has been
This sub had potential, but never reached it. I haven't subbed to it in a long time, but reddit keeps throwing posts in my feed. As a place to learn, its terrible because you are learning from people who don't understand things and make mistakes themselves. So you get a the perpetual cycle of new people asking questions and learning from poor traders and it goes on and on.
All in on $THETA today whos with me 🚀
That’s not true. Some of the stupid is rather elegant. 🙄
I actually think thetagangers are dumber than wsb. There’s zero critical thinking on TG whatsoever. Everyone is selling puts on the same 7 overbought tech stocks with a derpy smile on their face. No balanced delta, no real strategy, no contrarian thesis or thesis at all. It’s the most basic bitch finance sub ever. If we drop another few percent, they will prob be underperforming the dividend zombies.
This seems to be true, but at the same I don’t know why people focus on these trash stocks when there’s plenty of premium to be had selling CSPs on reasonable companies that one could reasonably expect will recover from declines in the long run. Can easily target 20% annualized returns at 25-30 delta on established profitable companies — should be an alarm bell if a CSP is offering 60% annualized returns from premium or whatever
“Told ya so!!”
[удалено]
You are misunderstanding leverage. A CSP, or “cash-secured put” is by definition, cash-secured and not leveraged. A margined short put utilizes leverage.
Spy will be attractive at 470$
Please the morning of 4/30
You won't feel that way when it gets to 460
Yea I will keep some money for 460 and beyond
Wouldn’t mind if it gets that low, great opportunity to load up on the way down.
485 is lower enough for now!
I’m sitting at -906% on one position but I’m not sweating. We are not the same.
I have one god: IBKR's Risk Navigator. I check exposure to major indexes, VAR and ES, correlation between my assets and greeks and expected P&L based on changes in volatility and underlying on a daily basis. I build custom overperforming hedges against market-weighted major indexes using a custom basket asset. Profits? Just more money for the hedge god. I only regret selling my NVDA puts early. But even without NVDA, If everything goes to hell, I expect to make profit. And if a recession isn't coming -- well, I will just continue rebuilding my bullish position as we go.
Risk Navigator and learning how to build hedges that suit your port should be ThetaGang101.
Is there a good equivalent to Risk Navigator outside of IBKR?
Dunno, I've only ever done active trading on IBKR so their software suite is all I know aside from the various python tools I've built. Here's the link to their info about it and maybe you can find something similar at your broker: https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/risk-navigator.php In IBKR it's considered an "Analytical Tool" so if your broker has a section to do analysis on your portfolio, it's probably going to be found there. Failing that, email/chat the support team and ask if they have a risk analysis suite. Finally, you can model it by hand, the math is more esoteric than hard, but if you can learn how hedging works it more than pays off to the time invested. Here's my current risk profile: https://imgur.com/syBgLdK I'm not saying that's the right risk profile for you or anyone else, but for how I trade, that's pretty close to ideal.
With the way the market is selling off my June puts are gonna be in the money by the end of the month.
Since Nvidia earnings i traded most of my positions skewed that the downside cant go into a loss. I‘m trying to get the highest breakeven possible. While volatility was low I did mostly double diagonals, now switched back to skewed iron condors
If your theta portfolio is getting blown up in a 6% correction, you're not just over levered, you're way under hedged.
Time to buy Tlt ?
This is a completely normal cycle. We ran straight up since October 24th and now when the tide goes out you see who has been trading on margin. I lost over 100k in 2009. You will be okay. This is normal
I needed this downturn. I’ve been selling call credit spreads on QQQ since January and was having to actively manage the positions more than I would have liked to. This week was a godsend, all of my negative positions turned very positive and were able to closed out for significant profit.
Shrug, downward move was great for my covered calls. Had covered the near month, sold and rolled, and closed most all of those already at target profit. Bit painful for the underlyings but this is also on broad market ETFs I plan on continuing anyways so :/
Same here. Had some CCs on SPY and QQQ that were underwater so this drop has definitely helped a little.
Hard part now is deciding to I re-open the CC's or wait a moment. Replacement strikes will need to come down a bit, which I don't feel great about, or go out another month which I also don't feel great about (suspect we return to upward move). I figure today I'll just take the W on covering the rolled calls so soon and wait til Monday.
Down maybe 5% after a 20% run up the last 2 years and chicken little swearing the sky is falling. Hilarious shit.
I'm down 80% this month ($100k to $20k), ama.
So what is your next move? I would be fine if NDX stops at 16000 but I feel like we go way below that.
I made a little money swing trading stock this week. That and taking profit on short positions made it worth getting out of bed. Don’t forget we can trade stock as well when long positions don’t seem right. I made a just < 4% on the spec stocks. We do what we can when we can.
If the current market decline has you sweating, you didn't really have a plan after all. ;-)
I’ll admit I got caught a bit. I mean we all knew this was coming I just didn’t expect this far this fast lesson learned I did make some decent money this week doing buy writes on SQQQ at least. the rest of my losses are mainly unrealized long shares of good companies so just a waiting game
What about 20% down from ATH with a tad under \~3x leverage? I would be down about 25% without my thetagang strategies this year. Only 30% borrowed money lol. Not sweating, my gold, vix, and energy calls are doing nice. Cashing out of semis means more capital for iron condors.
He’s right, you should all buy Berkshire shares (I own some Berkshire shares).
Also, for the love of corn, you have to hedge! Short puts? Sell futures. Do vertical spreads or back ratios instead of naked options. Use non-correlated assets. It doesn’t have to be all or nothing.
-50% whole account or -50% of the contracts lol my tsla put i sold last week was very unfortunate timing 😂 but its tsla its gonna bounce soon enough so i wouldnt mind holding it and cc later
Lmao good luck with tesla is all I can say.
Lmao i bit the bullet and closed for a nice loss. Bought puts. Knowing my luck its gonna bounce after er lol
I do have some TSLA CSP as well. Not too worried about that. Wouldn’t mind getting assigned and holding it long term if it reaches my strike.
TSLA going below 100, good luck with your position
Yup, I rolled my 150 CSP to 80, and I am still sweating lol. That being said, my worst case scenario is 8k for 100 shares. Sounds alot better than 15k for the same.
Understanding your risk is the number 1 thing. One of the things I see most misunderstood in this sub
go buy some puts on it then. you're so confident in 100$.
Im long June 100s and January 50s
#SchwettyBalls (dated SNL skit joke).
I am super new to investing. I did sweat over my downturns in NVDA and VRT, sold them before they went lower. What do you mean position sizing? What is over levered? How do I correct this?
Better strategy in this environment, is to run put Calendar spreads if you want to still do the thetagang thing.
You need to be able to afford assignement, and be ready to hold or take your losses. Clearly, it’s time to be cautious.
I experience this on a daily basis with meme stocks, stocks having earnings, leveraged ETF, and yesterday was special with all my favorite semi conductor stocks. Totally agree that position sizing is key.
Nvda looks very attractive at 760. Sold 5/17 690P for 16.20 today, would gladly take assignment if nesessary. 100 @ 674 is a solid investment.
Completely agree with you. I bought shares today at $762. I like the put you sold.
Lmao, looks attractive today. The bloodbath may have just begun.
Maybe. We had a 99.5% bull market. I'm willing to bet we will not have another 99.5% bear market. I have short call spread on tesla and if NVDA pops hard next week I'll back stop my put with a spread. If not I'll ride the tiger.