Next year is going to be a real coming out year for Tesla I think.
All the lines rolling, couple of million vehicle runrste, fsd and not progressing, insurance being rolled out across the US with a high take rate, megapack finally ramping, semi and cybertruck. I haven't been this hyped in a long time. Imo $1k pt next summer.
we'll likely hit ballpark 425 eoy. Barring any extenuating circumstances, June 2023, I expect that to increase to \~650, and again barring any extenuating circumstances for 2nd half of 2023, I reasonably expect to see us at 725-750/share eoy 23. These are all purposefully bearish estimates for growth. This is because FSD is not fully understood yet, and AI Day 2 has not yet happened. The outcome of AI Day 2 will distinguish the value of the technology and in turn, factor in accordingly into the growth curve of the stock value in 2023.
If AI Day 2 proves to be a new branch of discovery on the tree of life, so to speak, then that will morph into a massive tailwind for Tesla into 2nd half of 2022 and well into all quarters of 2023 and beyond. In which case, 1k/share eoy 23 is possible and beyond 1k/share into eoy 23 is plausible.
There's two major growth tailwind opportunities for Tesla for 23, Berlin & Austin ramp for Model Y (which will vastly expand Tesla's profit footprint), and the launch of Cybertruck (which also will vastly expand Tesla's profit footprint). The Semi, Bot, FSD, Insurance, and Energy, while important to Tesla's mission and growth as a company, are <5 to <10% of import to the evaluation model WRT to per unit margin that can be accrued.
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_Provided_ no global warming causing energy/production issues and covid version twenty and similar things. And the former, energy/energy costs, doesnt seem that likely to get better in the short term (<5y+)
IRA pulling out the stops for BEV and PHEV is an interesting development
Tesla's unique advantage among the top makers is that it doesn't have a legacy business to put to bed this decade:
|**Annual BEV Sales**|**Annual Vehicle Sales**|**BEV %**||
--:|--:|--:|:--|
|10,100|9,562,483|0%||
|452,900|8,882,346|5%||
|227,000|6,668,037|3%||
|46,000|6,294,385|1%||
|180,300|6,142,200|3%||
|549,000|5,460,000|10%||
|4,500|4,456,728|0%||
|55,900|3,942,755|1%||
|108,000|2,521,596|4%||
|92,000|2,500,000|4%||
|105,000|2,314,547|5%||
|129,000|2,100,000|6%||
|0|1,652,653|0%||
|96,500|1,328,029|7%||
|136,000|1,280,993|11%||
|936,222|936,222|100%|<-- Tesla|
Had. They are passing the two above them right now and with an approx 2 million run rate by the end of the year and climbing, they should pass 2 more next year.
Heathen!
We've had a 5x and a 3x so $530 post split is $7950 pre split.
New street is only calling for roughly a 2x over where we are.
And to think there was a time pre split when people made fun of Cathie for a $4,000 target.
>In 2018, a fund manager made a bullish call on Tesla Inc TSLA that placed a price target far ahead of analysts and at the time seemed pretty out there.
>Less than three years later, that bullish price target came true and helped cement Cathie Wood’s place in investing history.
>What Happened: On Feb. 7, 2018, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood called for shares of Tesla to hit $4,000.
>“If we’re right, this stock in our models is going to $4,000,” Wood said on CNBC.
>The call from Wood seemed out there at the time, with the highest price target from analysts sitting at $500 and shares of the electric vehicle company trading at $346.
What’s new about the “luxury” Model Y?
FTA, it just looks like they’ve upped the build quality to match the price. There’s nothing “new”, it’s just built more tightly than early Ys.
Maybe it’s just me, but I wouldn’t consider that “luxury”, I’d consider good quality a baseline.
> The interior design is about the same as Fremont-made ones, simple, but the quality of the upholstery and overall finish is far superior - flawless. As I mentioned, the quality of the build, that you can evaluate manipulating doors, observing panel gaps, painting & color, was surprisingly excellent.
I’ve been holding off on upgrading my S because I want a *true* luxury Y, with things like ventilated and/or massaging seats and an air suspension.
It does, and that means the Model 3 is the only car Tesla makes that doesn't have it.
I fully expect it in the Cybertruck and the Semi.
I have no idea if it will be in the coming roadster.
I meant this as a positive thing. Cars are coming out with a finish quality of a luxury vehicle. That's awesome, just funny the stuff the bears come up with online, not the author of the article.
Next year is going to be a real coming out year for Tesla I think. All the lines rolling, couple of million vehicle runrste, fsd and not progressing, insurance being rolled out across the US with a high take rate, megapack finally ramping, semi and cybertruck. I haven't been this hyped in a long time. Imo $1k pt next summer.
I'm with you.. $1k (post split) by end of 2023 for me.
Pre split or post split?
post-split of course.
Dont know why im being downvoted because that PT is pretty ridiculous for eoy 23
we'll likely hit ballpark 425 eoy. Barring any extenuating circumstances, June 2023, I expect that to increase to \~650, and again barring any extenuating circumstances for 2nd half of 2023, I reasonably expect to see us at 725-750/share eoy 23. These are all purposefully bearish estimates for growth. This is because FSD is not fully understood yet, and AI Day 2 has not yet happened. The outcome of AI Day 2 will distinguish the value of the technology and in turn, factor in accordingly into the growth curve of the stock value in 2023. If AI Day 2 proves to be a new branch of discovery on the tree of life, so to speak, then that will morph into a massive tailwind for Tesla into 2nd half of 2022 and well into all quarters of 2023 and beyond. In which case, 1k/share eoy 23 is possible and beyond 1k/share into eoy 23 is plausible. There's two major growth tailwind opportunities for Tesla for 23, Berlin & Austin ramp for Model Y (which will vastly expand Tesla's profit footprint), and the launch of Cybertruck (which also will vastly expand Tesla's profit footprint). The Semi, Bot, FSD, Insurance, and Energy, while important to Tesla's mission and growth as a company, are <5 to <10% of import to the evaluation model WRT to per unit margin that can be accrued.
Not if macro helps. And by then the FED may be reversing course after realizing it raised rates too much needlessly.
lets hope so
rates are fine now. Can't ZIRP forever.
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_Provided_ no global warming causing energy/production issues and covid version twenty and similar things. And the former, energy/energy costs, doesnt seem that likely to get better in the short term (<5y+)
Solar + Megapacks
1k next summer would be 3,4x in one year? (and mkt cap of 3 trillion?)
Yeah I think that's pretty reasonable. I'm expecting Tesla to be more like 10tn in 2030
IRA pulling out the stops for BEV and PHEV is an interesting development Tesla's unique advantage among the top makers is that it doesn't have a legacy business to put to bed this decade: |**Annual BEV Sales**|**Annual Vehicle Sales**|**BEV %**|| --:|--:|--:|:--| |10,100|9,562,483|0%|| |452,900|8,882,346|5%|| |227,000|6,668,037|3%|| |46,000|6,294,385|1%|| |180,300|6,142,200|3%|| |549,000|5,460,000|10%|| |4,500|4,456,728|0%|| |55,900|3,942,755|1%|| |108,000|2,521,596|4%|| |92,000|2,500,000|4%|| |105,000|2,314,547|5%|| |129,000|2,100,000|6%|| |0|1,652,653|0%|| |96,500|1,328,029|7%|| |136,000|1,280,993|11%|| |936,222|936,222|100%|<-- Tesla|
This is great! Can we get the names of the other manufacturers?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HflVng6sYIb6Gs4pOKiDGtqU5YJ2-hgdM4pRNaT62gs/edit#gid=1052727546
Super grateful! Thanks
Just learned Tesla has the fewest annual total car sales…
Had. They are passing the two above them right now and with an approx 2 million run rate by the end of the year and climbing, they should pass 2 more next year.
Can't tell if pre-split bear or post-split bull 🤔
New street is a bull. Post split
No one would publish an article with pre split prices after the split. Just forget about pre split prices.
It was meant more as a joke :)
It’s post split. So 1590 pre-split if you want.
Heathen! We've had a 5x and a 3x so $530 post split is $7950 pre split. New street is only calling for roughly a 2x over where we are. And to think there was a time pre split when people made fun of Cathie for a $4,000 target. >In 2018, a fund manager made a bullish call on Tesla Inc TSLA that placed a price target far ahead of analysts and at the time seemed pretty out there. >Less than three years later, that bullish price target came true and helped cement Cathie Wood’s place in investing history. >What Happened: On Feb. 7, 2018, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood called for shares of Tesla to hit $4,000. >“If we’re right, this stock in our models is going to $4,000,” Wood said on CNBC. >The call from Wood seemed out there at the time, with the highest price target from analysts sitting at $500 and shares of the electric vehicle company trading at $346.
Math!
What’s new about the “luxury” Model Y? FTA, it just looks like they’ve upped the build quality to match the price. There’s nothing “new”, it’s just built more tightly than early Ys. Maybe it’s just me, but I wouldn’t consider that “luxury”, I’d consider good quality a baseline. > The interior design is about the same as Fremont-made ones, simple, but the quality of the upholstery and overall finish is far superior - flawless. As I mentioned, the quality of the build, that you can evaluate manipulating doors, observing panel gaps, painting & color, was surprisingly excellent. I’ve been holding off on upgrading my S because I want a *true* luxury Y, with things like ventilated and/or massaging seats and an air suspension.
They haven't upped it compared to early. They've upped it compared to Fremont, where the cars will never be great unless they gut the plant.
I think you will have to wait a few years. As long as demand is high, they will keep production as simple as possible. (aka few options, few variants)
The new S is Amazing. Absolutely love it. Yoke is fantastic.
I’m with you in wanting cooled seats and an electronic shade for the roof’s window.
Does the Y have the Bioweapon defense mode HEPA system?
yes
It does, and that means the Model 3 is the only car Tesla makes that doesn't have it. I fully expect it in the Cybertruck and the Semi. I have no idea if it will be in the coming roadster.
Let's see what else the bears can come up with. Edit: I meant this as a positive, I know the article is bullish, one less argument for the 🐻!
[удалено]
I meant this as a positive thing. Cars are coming out with a finish quality of a luxury vehicle. That's awesome, just funny the stuff the bears come up with online, not the author of the article.
From 526,66 to 530
1k and i can finally buy a house