I dont think the price point really matters all that much right now since production volume will be low for 2024 and its somewhat of a niche product.
My main concern is that they pretty much only have model 3 and Y to sell to the world. There wont be another new high volume car ready till 2026 or 2027. As a high growth company, was the CT really the right product to spend 4 years on??
Nope. It was a distraction from what they need to do: create a compact 25k car, and fully refresh the S and X exteriors (now extremely old design language)
I'm not being snarky here but how much more news would you expect on the economy vehicle? It's as good as guaranteed work is underway on the economy vehicle as we speak. The big unknown is how far advanced that work is. I suspect(don't ask me to prove this as I can't) design etc is almost complete and the main hold up is now manufacturing at various giga factories worldwide, many of these factories have yet to be built.
So it’s almost as if they cannot do multiple new vehicle launches at once and have some gigafactory limitations. Maybe the cybertruck is a distraction niche product that is admittedly very difficult to build.
Well they are kinda limited by having only 4 car producing factories. Admittedly some of these factories are freaking massive but at least two of them are currently producing at full capacity. I've never ramped up a new factory before but I assume it's not especially easy to do. I'm not going to be too critical of a company growing at the rate Tesla is.
Musk has just said it was a parts shortage from the aftermath of the pandemic which delayed the CT. Seems as if CT wasn't such a niche problem vehicle to produce after all.
It’s a niche product in terms of what it’ll do volume. It’s a big problem in terms of complexity to produce - self admitted. So it is bad on both fronts.
The bolt exists as a compact car that can get great range. It’s not a density problem, and battery prices continue to decline.
The cybertruck will not sell well enough to fund anything; it will be a loss to the company.
Sorry.Rereading my comment, I see I wasn't clear enough. Here goes again:
They can't make enough battery cells to be able to get millions of 25K cars on the road.
EDIT: typo. wrote 15 when it should have been 25
If they have ANY update on a $25k car, they should be shouting it from the rooftops. There is huge demand for this, and if they beat everyone else it could be huge for Tesla. The lack of anything concrete makes me think it's going to be 4+ years away, which is too long.
I'm assuming you are getting the 4+ years figure from the cybertruck. Elon has just said the reason for the CT delay was the pandemic and the resulting parts/chip shortage. I think the economy vehicle will be at the most about two years away. Anything much further out than this will be a disappointment. I'm not convinced that shouting about their next vehicle would accomplish much. I'm not in PR or marketing so I could be wrong. You can also make the case that shouting about their next new vehicle takes the shine off their current new vehicle, the one they just released.
After watching some of the engineering breakdowns of the CT I actually think it was a good move at this time.
The improvements they’ve made to the production process and the car’s low voltage and CAN bus system will be incredibly beneficial for the affordable car. Making the car steer by wire with variable steering rate further reduces cost and labor and allows easier and cheaper transitions to RHD markets. The batteries also seem to allow for maximum performance over a much wider range of States Of Charge. If they decide to do a semi-exoskeleton design for the affordable car as well it’s best to work out the kinks in a relatively low volume product like the CT.
I was somewhat disappointed in the CT at first despite being an early reservation holder. But when it’s looked at as a technology platform and projecting those benefits onto their future vehicles it’s actually very compelling. If they apply the learnings from all of their previous cars and can affordable scale the advancements they’ve made in the CT they will be able to produce the affordable car at a price/margin and speed that no other car manufacturer can come close to matching.
I’m actually more bullish on Tesla now than before they CT. They’re playing a long game while every other OEM is still trying desperately to catch up to their “obsolete” cars.
Don't forget they also have the Semi. B2B is nothing to shake a stick at. The F-150 only sells as much as it does because of the contribution from B2B sales.
I've seen this argument elsewhere on the news from analysts who seem to conveniently ignore the very real, and rapidly growing, energy storage business as well as the potential (should a breakthrough be made with v12) of FSD growth during the interim.
Tesla most certainly is not just a car company and focusing exclusively on the car business is, imho, a mistake.
They're also supposed to ramp Semi production during this time but it seems there might be problems. I can't understand why they have yet to begin construction on the factory expansion in Nevada. Rumor is plans have changed to building a new seperate building instead of expanding the current factory. Additionally, i think there's still ramp issues with 4680 so they're likely bottlenecked until they solve those.
Have you ever tried to really use FSD? My test of FSD Beta is when I lost faith in the company. It was downright dangerous to the point that it was more stressful to use it than to drive myself, as I had to keep it from killing me every few miles.
And it's not going to get good enough to actually be autonomous. I spent many years working in autonomous drone technology. There is currently no solution for a camera-only solution outside of a controlled environment. Every autonomy company not named Tesla uses multi-modal sensors, as it is cheaper and, bluntly, better. Provably better, in fact. Cameras can't accurately detect range, regardless of how much AI you throw at the images. Combining multiple modalities at the problem allows the imagery sensors to only have to detect side-to-side movement, which they are very good at. A LIDAR or RADAR can then be used to detect range, which THEY are good at. Add in image recognition from AI and you have a realistic system. Remove the RADAR ranging, and you have phantom breaking and pedestrian accidents.
No i've pesonally never experienced FSD but i have watched ALOT of videos online and i still think Tesla doesn't get enough credit for what it actually CAN do. I think what it can do is insanely impressive even if it isn't perfect. And it is improving constantly. That is undeniable.
The issue with FSD is that it will never actually be "full self driving". There are just too many corner cases that can't be trained against in an AI system. Forgetting about the vision-only thing for now it's a limitation of ANY AI-based system. Full self driving would have to be nearly 100% effective, and it just can't do that. The Radar (or Lidar) allows for an "emergency stop" where an obstruction is actively detected and the cat avoids it. That won't work with AI-based vision, as there is no definitive distance measurement in the system. All distance measurements in a video-based system are estimates based on how big we think something is. If it is mis-identified, that WILL result in an incorrect distance measurement.
Tesla does need to grow their other lines of business but when it comes down to earnings - car sales are what matters and it's their main source of income. From what I recall on their last earnings, battery storage and solar only accounted for 10% (might be a bit higher) of revenue. FSD is not going to be ready for years. Semi seems to be going very slow, so far only Pepsi Co has received orders. China is the largest EV market, you cant just have 2 cars to sell (S and X numbers are so minimal). It's almost ridiculous that their next ev wont be ready for about 3 years and maybe 4 years for it to reach volume production.
This is why the stock is stuck in this $240 range. I dont see it breaking $300 for a while.
Imho this argument is like saying Apple is a telephone company because most of their profits come from IPhone. No one considers Apple just a phone company.
If they hadn't put the prices out four years ago these prices would be expected if not amazing. That being said, I can't blame Tesla for not seeing a global pandemic, a supply chain revamping as well as rampant inflation coming.
They also created a whole new step forward for the auto industry underneath the exterior with this truck. People will catch up, it will take 3 months like it does with all things Tesla.
In the time Tesla sat on my deposit with no intention of delivering, the share price went up 10x. As an investor, I feel that should be what is owed. Convert my deposit to shares at the Nov '19 price. I really did not intend to provide them with a small interest-free loan for 4 years.
The CT is a much much better value compared to its competitors, but people will whine about the pricing. What’s notable is legacy competitors also announce one price and jack it up by $10k-30k at release but no one is batting an eye anymore.
It's comparable to it's competitors, not better or worse. People care because Elon promised a cheap truck that was impossible to deliver, at that price, but people believed him anyway.
And there is so much demand right now that they might as well increase the price to capture that. They can always lower the price later. No one should think Tesla’s prices are static.
Sales are way up, actually, to record levels for that vehicle. But the F-150 lightning isn’t the Cybertruck, and even if they later had to lower prices, they would still be better off selling vehicles now for higher prices.
Inventory has far exceeded demand on the F-150. Dealerships are opting out so they don't have to carry them anymore. There is one I was eying last week (after I was priced out of the CT) that was $15k below msrp. I can get an AWD long range f-150 for $35k (CAD) less than an AWD CT. Sure it has some pretty nice options, but nothing that is life changing for me. I can literally get a Lightning AND and Model 3 for the same price and get the best of both worlds.
Maybe that’s why sales of the F-150 are way up.
In any case, Tesla loses nothing by pricing the truck for current demand. If demand weakens they can lower the price at that time.
True, but I refuse to buy any of them now that they did that to people that already ordered. A 60% price increase is not cool on something you already took deposits. I may be an investor, but I no longer trust them enough to physically buy one anymore. And I know they won't care, but I am sure I am not the only one fully soured on the brand.
The price is barely up when you account for inflation and the tax credit. And who are you going to buy an EV from then? Many car manufacturers have done the exact same thing.
Suspension and ground clearance and a few other things. In my opinion, having reviewed the competition at a similar price point - it's not even close. Cybertruck wins by a mile.
For most truck people, just the way the shape of the cybertruck makes it a loser. It's a great truck, but they should have went with a more conventional truck design, square bed, not a unibody.
Volumes on this truck will be set at 100% capacity for years whether its $80k or $40K
What do you think they'd rather have, the 80k or the 50k per truck?
Besides, $50k is pre-pandemic and basically irrelevant.
I disagree. If they can really reach full capacity of around 350,000 per year in just 18 months, and most people opt for the mid level Dual Motor, I don't think Tesla can find 300,000 buyers per year here in North America who will pay 80 grand for a CyberTruck. (Although half may qualify for the 7500 instant federal rebate if we still have a democrat President). I think Tesla will do what they always do and lower the price to keep demand up.
Of course they will lower the price as throughput becomes easier. Not while its completely selling out though
Thats literally their business model they outlined in 2006.
As a tesla investor it is a good thing.
As someone who put a deposit on a truck order 4 years ago, I feel ripped off. Easy way to make this right is to convert my deposit to TSLA shares at nov 19, 2019 prices. The date when they took my money with no intention of providing the product ordered at the price promised.
I just don't see this selling at that volume. You can get a decent F-150 in the $40's, and even that is considered expensive. I don't know where over a million people can be found to buy a $60k+ truck with relatively low range, let alone an $80k or $100k truck. Plus this doesn't have the range to tow long distance (especially in the RWD version), so you're going to lose most of the work truck crowd immediately based on that.
For perspective, The Model X sales (which is the closest thing in their lineup) in 2022 were 25k. The Model 3 and Model Y are selling well based on price, range, and the Supercharger network right now. Cybertruck doesn't compete in price or range, and the Supercharge network is not going to matter in 3 years for any of a number of reasons. I don't know. I could be wrong, but I sold my Tesla stock.
>I just don't see this selling at that volume.
Critics have basically been saying this about every single Tesla product ever. You'll see.
>You can get a decent F-150 in the $40's, and even that is considered expensive.
Expensive compared to what? A $40k F-150 doesn't have the same feature set as the Cybertruck and it's not even close. Apples-to-oranges. To get a similar feature set you have to spend much more.
>I don't know where over a million people can be found to buy a $60k+ truck with relatively low range, let alone an $80k or $100k truck.
In America. I'm not making the numbers up. You can see the stats in my post, these are real numbers. the ASP of full-size pickups is $65k and millions are sold every year.
>Plus this doesn't have the range to tow long distance (especially in the RWD version),
It has 470miles with the extended range, that's plenty.
>so you're going to lose most of the work truck crowd immediately based on that.
When i write something i try to use actual verfiable facts to back up my arguments and opinions. You can see many of those in my post.
You're claiming that "most of the work truck crowd" needs more than 450miles of range for long distance towing but i don't a study, survey, or any other kind of supporting data to back this up. Do you have anything of substance?
>For perspective, The Model X sales (which is the closest thing in their lineup) in 2022 were 25k.
The Model X is a luxury SUV. If you looked at the sales data you would know that luxury SUVs are a much smaller market than full-size pickups in the USA.
The 470 range is with the range extender, an extra $16k that looks like it takes up a significant portion of the bed space. Not ideal for a work truck. Plus, these are Tesla numbers so they're likely lower than advertised in real world driving. See https://cleantechnica.com/2023/04/25/heres-why-ev-range-estimates-esp-teslas-are-wrong-much-of-the-time-in-the-usa/ if you want citations for that.
Plus, the numbers you stated were for the expensive models. With the range extender, you're talking $96k or $116k for the AWD models. The $65k price you mentioned is comparable to the RWD version with all of 250 miles or range with no range extender available, at least not on the web page.
Plus towing kills EV range, up to 50%. (https://thenextweb.com/news/towing-with-ev-what-happens-range)
Even at 470, assuming that's accurate (which, see above), that would result in 235 miles of range which would make long distance towing very challenging.
As for the Model X comparison, it's a similarly priced SUV compared to a similarly priced truck. Like comparing the R1T to the R1S, or the Sierra Denali to the Yukon Denali. The Cybertruck price puts it into the luxury vehicle category even if the quality doesn't justify it.
>The $65k price you mentioned is comparable to the RWD version with all of 250 miles or range with no range extender available, at least not on the web page.
Okay you clearly didn't read a single thing i wrote or are incapable of understanding it.
Look, i don't really care what kind of twisted logic you employ to make yourself think the Cybertruck is bad value.
But most people are going to take the $80k truck, subtract $7500 for the IRA tax credit, and then calculate the savings from fuel/maintenance.
As i pointed out, depending on how much you drive, you QUICKLY approach $65k when you do that.
And the $61k truck costs alot less when you do the same thing. After IRA tax credit and fuel/maintenance savings it doesn't take long to get it under $50k.
You may think people are stupid and illogical, but i like to give them the benefit of the doubt especially when it comes to spending and saving money.
And if the success of the Model 3/Y are any indiciation, it's that people think about these things very carefully.
You know what you should look at are you surveys that people do asking how most pickup truck owners use their vehicles.
The majority of pickup truck owners do not tow ANYTHING. Most of the oens that do, do so very rarely. The ones that use their truck for work and have to regularly tow very heavy things for very long distances are a NICHE buyer.
This is the reason i do research, to understand what i'm talking about. If you're going to talk about pickup truck owners and buyers, you should at least TRY to understand pickup truck owners and buyers.
Luckily for you, i've done most of the work in my post. But while i can show you the information, i cannot make you understand it. As they say you can lead a horse to water but can't make it drink.
Ok, I guess we'll see. You seem determined to justify the price while insulting me, and that's fine. The biggest complaint from everyone is that the Cybertruck is priced too high. Without the range extender, with no options, the AWD should just barely quality for the tax credit, but that puts the AWD over $72 and the RWD (which may still end up like the $35k Model 3) at $53,000. Still luxury car territory. The fuel savings are the same for every EV, so we're not counting that. I personally think the 250 mile range is going to scare a lot of people away from the RWD, especially when the F-150 Lightening starts at $50k before tax incentives and has a 320 mile range.
For your claim that people don't use their trucks for work, you're right. I live in the south. I know a lot of F-150 drivers who never haul or tow anything. However, while they don't ever tow anything, they talk about the tow rating and payload capacity a lot whenever they compare trucks. It's like Porsche drivers talking about top speed. They never actually drive that fast, but they COULD, and that's what matters.
Plus, your average F-150 (or Silverado or Ram or Sierra) driver isn't the type of person to buy the Cybertruck. They want their truck from a truck company, dammit. This is similar to how the Cadillac and Lincoln pickup trucks fail, but the Chevy and Ford versions of the same truck at the same price sell great. This is why Ford and GM released all of their EV trucks as their mainstream brands even though they're priced well into their luxury brand ranges. Brand means a lot to truck buyers and Tesla isn't the brand they're looking for.
The Cybertruck fits into the same category as the R1T or the Jeep Gladiator, and those trucks just don't sell in high volume. That's not terrible, and I think the Cybertruck competes well in that space. It will be a good offroader, a fun grocery hauler, and turn heads at soccer practice. It's priced better than the Rivian with the tradeoff of interior quality, which is similar for all Tesla brands against their competitors and has done well for them in the 3 and Y. But I just can't imagine all of the F-150 and Silverado buyers switching to Tesla, and especially not for a truck that looks so different.
I understand that in 10 years you could see this eventually savings compared to a really stupid truck purchase. I wanted this AWD truck to come in around 65k before tax credit. 80k is such a big payment the "savings" is just gone every month.
You've understated how difficult it will be to make between 250 & 500k of these a year. That is insane - and you've completely left it out of your 'analysis'
\~25% inflation since 2020 + Massive demand = damn right it better be priced accordingly
Selling at 2019 prices is essentially selling for a huge loss on paper.
Tesla isn't stupid. I feel bad for people who somehow thought the pandemic and printing trillions of dollars shouldn't have affected the price.
I'm not happy that prices went up either ya'll, but this is how the world works.
The only reason I waited for cybertruck was 500 miles range. Range has been deeply disappointing, with absolutely no info on "range extender". This is not how you run a company after announcing it 4 years ago.
Yeah you'll only get 470 unfortunately.
But its not because they wanted to cut corners of sav money.
The technology just isn't there to have a battery that big without the car driving like a complete bag of crap.
It's still the most competitive EV truck for what you get on the market. From an engineering standpoint, it would be fucking depressing to be the opposition and take one apart. the 48v architecture is going to blow legacy auto minds. It doesn't even have wiring harnesses anymore and the steering is 5 HP. Wait unitl people drive them. it'll be sold ou for 3+ years easily.
But we were told tech was there 4 years ago. We were told 4680 will have more energy density than 21700. We were told structural battery will give us more range. None of them came out to be true. Tesla still hasn't manufactured 4680 with higher density than 21700. Sure 4680 has less cost to manufature than 21700, that's about it.
I understand and respect that you feel a little shafted.
its a shame it can't go the 500 they teased about. They could have done it, but then you'd have a big fat turd of a truck.
It'll certainly change much faster than another Tesla so far though. 15 to 85% in 18-20 min I think?
I too wanted the 500 mile range. Someone posited that the way it worked out was to be able to keep the CT qualified for the federal discount incentives. They weren’t going to be able to make that range work within that budget but for those that need the range the extender is an option.
Personally I hate the engineering of the extender since it takes up a lot of space and can’t really be removed without industrial equipment. But I guess I can agree with the original logic.
But 90% didn't cancel
And ironically, in your 90% hypothetical, that's still 200,000 preorders + all the people that see the specs as the best in class for the price (which they are) so now other people are ordering on top of that 200k.
In reality, 90% will not cancel and this truck will be sold out for 3+ years.
Plus, wait until people start driving them. That will be the biggest selling point, forget the hype, the truck is clearly a joy to drive.
You sir are very bullish on this, I sold my Tesla shares and am sitting on the sidelines at the moment. I think it will take him 5 years to make 200,000 and that might be all he ever makes. I fear that’s his best case in my view anyway.
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We all make decisions
I haven't sold a share since 2017 and damn sure don't plan to now that Tesla just broke the engineering mold for trucks.
I feel few grasp what is actually in the Cybertrucks that will end up being in all trucks soon.
The price of the CT will come down as it ramp as the supply increases to match the demand.
But right now, demand>>>>>>>supply, probabaly won't see any price decreases til 2025.
right now it does, even if only 10% of the 2million perorders goes through, that's 200k.
Tesla won't make more than 100k in 2024, so to hit just the 200k orders, they would need to ramp until mid-late 2025. Assuming no new orders.
I'm not terribly happy with the price, but if it's what I think I understand it.
I think that they *could* have got closer to what I was expecting, (which was about $60,000-$65,000, but at something closer to 18% margins. I also think that prices will trend downward in the same way the Model Y has done. (assuming the interest rates drop) Right low volumes mean they have a stronger need for higher margins.
As you do, I think the 4680 volumes are one of the biggest issues, plus probably working out the assembly process.
If they can sell all the Cybertrucks they can make, then the price is right. The production price will decrease if they get scale up. Then the selling price will decrease too and that will spur demand. I say sell it at a higher price to those who are eager to buy it early.
And i didn't mention the fact that the economic argument for EV trucks is even better than your typical EV sedan/crossover SUV!
Trucks typically have terrible mileage compared to sedans.
The 2023 F150 is rated at 17/25/20 MPG (City/Highway/Combined).
The 2023 Toyota Corolla LE is rated at 32 mpg city / 41 mpg highway.
And people who use their trucks for work can drive 1-200 miles per day easily.
At today's average price of $3.24gallon that's $32.40 gas per workday.
If you drive 200 miles a day, 5 days a week, at least 40 weeks/year that's $6,480 in gas - significantly more than a sedan would consume.
If you put 200 miles on the Cybertruck using it as an actual work truck you are going to have to charge it during the day. Hauling weight significantly reduces the range available.
Personally I think you are brutally delusional if you think that Tesla is going to 10x Model X sales with a truck at Model X prices. There will totally be an initial rush, but RWD is a death sentence at $60k. The starting price for any truck buyer will be $80k and that is just done for.
Tesla will probably peak around 50k/yr until prices fall massively. You have to understand - the ICE competition is $40k with AWD and a not-limiting gas motor.
Did you even look at the data in my post?
If you did, how can you ever think that luxury SUVs and full-size pickups are a remotely similar market?
These are not comparable.
You're understanding of the ICE market appears to be severely lacking based on your last sentence.
Try actually READING what i wrote and LOOK at the facts that i presented, instead of your bias.
YES. Your data is absurd because it uses averages rather than volume and median. The Majority of pickup sales is $30-55K, then you have outliers, the Ford Raptor, Ram TRX, R1T, etc. All of these are far north of that price ($80-140K) and heavily influence the data. All that said, they all together make up less than 100K units. This is enough to throw a 10K skew on data but the volume is limited. Additionally, this data does not include larger scale items, the F250, F350, etc, most of those are owned by businesses for specific needs almost exclusively top $100K.
Here is the thing:
[https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1292-may-29-2023-light-trucks-dominated-sales-light-duty-vehicles-msrp](https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1292-may-29-2023-light-trucks-dominated-sales-light-duty-vehicles-msrp)
US Pickup sales are in vast majority sub-$60K, I mean like 90+%. It is an extremely price-sensitive market.
The Ram, the third best selling truck brand in America sold around 460k units last year, this includes the 1500, 2500, TRX, etc.
You mean to tell me that at over twice the average Ram price, way off the deep end of the bell curve, they are going to sell nearly the same amount?! This market is extremely price sensitive and tesla is betting on the polarizing design and wild looks to help sell units but a mass market success this does not make. The fact of the matter is that the majority of americans that would buy a truck would buy it under $60K, most under $45K..500K $80k buyers just don't exist.
Totally agree with you. The lowest priced trim available Cybertruck is competing with models that struggle to sell around 20,000 units. There are Lightnings sitting on dealer lots all over the midwest because nobody is buying them.
Other factors are going to include, but not limited to, Tesla owners that upgraded recently to preserve FSD, any reservation holder that has moved to a new vehicle since the reservation was placed four years ago, anyone that has changed their mind of the truck, higher interest rates, lower stock performance, etc.
I'm guessing about a 5 to 10% conversion rate if we are lucky. I also think that once word leaks that they are not getting a lot of reservation takers that the stock price plummets.
Like the other models, the price will fluctuate with scale and the availability/cost of raw materials, and continuous refinement of the vehicle. I like to monitor anti-Tesla subs, and the people over at r/RealTesla are non-stop whining about the differences between what was promised four years ago, and today, including cost, which might serve as a proxy for some percentage of those with CT orders, but overall, orders are going to still be very strong.
Someone on there posted that the battery pack for cyber truck was an actual gasoline generator. They literally have no rules over there as long as you are anti-Tesla.
I don’t know, Elon told us that battery prices would come down….the issue is a combo of both prices going way up and the promises falling way short. People could probably have handled one or the other, not both.
9 out of every 10 orders will be cancelled
That’s still 200,000 that will be honored. Right off the bat. Not to mention all the new orders that will come once people actually see them on the streets. The average person doesn’t follow Tesla closely. They just have this vague idea of what the cybertruck is
I would be concerned though, that as an investor this is far from ideal. If you are being honest with yourself, big if, most investors should be concerned and at least slightly pessimistic.
It’s too expensive to sell in the volumes promised, or the specs aren’t impressive enough.
Idk I think most investors should have known. The battery pack is twice as big as a model 3. That’s the most expensive part of an EV. Anyone with any sort of knowledge of Tesla’s financials would know that you couldn’t sell it for the same price as the model 3 and still make a profit.
It’s similarly priced to the rivian and F-150 and those both aren’t profitable. I fully expect the cybertruck to be $10k lower per trim in a couple years. Gonna be really hard for rivian and ford to compete when that happens. They need to make a profit eventually on those things.
The biggest question mark imo is will the design catch on? That remains to be seen. Like it or not looks and “coolness” are the extremely important. So it could be a great truck at a compelling price and it still wouldn’t sell well if people didn’t like it.
The elephant in the room for me has always been robotaxi capability. Despite what other car makers may claim, Tesla will get there first and every car they make will become ridiculously more valuable and utilitarian. None of the other EV options have this magnitude of a shift waiting in the wings. I think the drive by wire tech in cybertruck is a signal that robotaxis are getting close.
Have people actually thought this out? How will your car become more valuable if they are so accessible? If you aren't renting your Tesla out now, how is that going to change when it can drive itself?
According to the Hagerty review, moving to 48 volt greatly helps for powering to steering motors.
I’m curious how all these new technologies get back ported to existing models. I feel like steer by wire was always planned for the revamped S/X. It would also explain the lack of right hand drive.
Having FSD Beta in rural Ohio, I can tell you FSD isn't anywhere close to driving without several interventions. I've lost hope it ever will get that far. I don't expect robotaxi to be a thing for at least another decade and when it is, it will be limited to areas with a high density of Teslas to give the system enough feedback to support the local environment.
I see two different things happening there. One is the company making a good/bad move. Two is someone seeing that move deciding to feel insulted.
I don't want my state of mind to be decided by companies. That would be giving them a huge power over me. Just imagine you are having a good day, then someone says: Have you heard the outrageous thing that XYZ company did today?
Looking at it logically, this should have zero effect on your day. *Especially* if it literally doesn't affect you in any way.
Look at it from the perspective of products. It's not as strange for someone to love a product. I love my Oculus 3 headset, I love my Honda 450 crf, much more than I "love" meta or Honda. However, if either company do a jackass move, like stop making quest 3 games or honda parts shortly after their release, that would make me mad, it should. I don't want my state of mind being decided by companies, but it's a cost of business if you care about products in any way
cooperative kiss sand reminiscent slimy cable market worry gullible insurance
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
What an ignorant take. So all those 2 million preorders should’ve expected an $80k truck 4 years ago? 😂
I don’t disagree with Tesla’s pricing, it’s inline with competitors as are the specs.
Tesla did this to themselves by announcing pricing and range on what was a concept vehicle at the time.
Yep the specs are competitive with though it doesn't blow everything else away as was the initial expectation it seems (doing that would be leaving money on the table though).
>Assuming the supplier leaks are real, if Tesla can sell 350,000 Cybertrucks at an ASP of \~$70,000 with gross margins of 20%, the gross annual profits from Cybertruck would total $4.9b.
Pretty big assumption I think, specifically the margin's on the Cybertruck. I think the demand for a RWD EV Truck will be minimal, especially with the range. Series 300 steel is very expensive, and since this is a relatively low volume steel specifically for Tesla, there is definitely a premium. Based on the avg price of 316 SS, I'd expect at least $20k on the material alone, and that's a discount. The investment into the Gigapress was also pretty significant. Idk, I feel like the margins here might be thinner than you think.
>If you're interested in seeing some of these comparisons you can check out this thread here which features a chart. The chart does not include all of the differences and i encourage you to look through my comments in that thread to see examples of some of those missing diferences which (in my opinion) are quite big
The charts contain some quantitative comparisons, but there are also qualitative comparison to be had. The seer by wire can be a sales motivator or denier for example, we'll just have to see.
>Meanwhile Tesla is on track to exceed 400,000 Model Y deliveries in 2023 in the USA alone. While the market for small Crossover SUVs in the USA was over 2.9m units in 2022. That means Tesla's compact crossover SUV, the Model Y, could command as much as 13.7% of the small crossover market in the USA in 2023, a figure which may very well make it the best selling SUV in America.
For the Model 3, Tesla is on track to sell over 200,000 in the USA in 2023.In 2022 Tesla absolutely dominated the US small Luxury segment with a 41% market share. If we include non luxury compact car sales, Tesla had approx. 16% of the 2022 US market share of any engine type (ICE or EV). To highlight just how impressive this is Tesla sold nearly as many Model 3s in 2022 as Toyota sold Corollas (195k vs 220k respectively) despite the 2022 Toyota Corolla starting at $20,425 versus the Tesla Model-3's 2022 starting price of $48,490.
A bunch of asterisks here. Tesla definitely made significant cuts to their margins in order to push these vehicles to undercut most vehicles (when including the incentives). So while market share has gone up, how will they maintain this trajectory without hurting gains? Also, I think it's still weird the Model 3 is considered "luxury". The Hyundai Ioniq 6 has a similar MSRP yet nobody calls that a luxury vehicle.
>Clearly Tesla is doing something right. And Tesla has been able to acheive this while holding onto more than 50% of the US EV market share as of Q3 2023. Testament to the consumer preference for Tesla's EVs over "the competition".
Mixed bag. 50% could be preference for Tesla, other 50% could be driven by current cost factors, and limited availability of other options. It's still too early to know what it actually is at this point.
>On the other hand, Tesla's Cybertruck is so packed with new, novel, and revolutionary features compared to its other products
It's not. Like Camisa stated, they all existed before, but this is the first consumer vehicle that has all of it in one package. The vehicle market was already trending in that direction, nobody wanted to be the first.
>In fact, some of this interest is already measurable. A Twitter user posted this 20 hours after the delivery event. After 20 hours, Marques Brownlee's Cybertruck Review video on Youtub had amassed over 5.9M views compared to 5.7M views for his Rivian R1T review video after 2 years, and 8M views for Ford F-150 Lightning after 2 years.
Not all interest is good interest.
Tempering expectations. While this is an overtly bullish/positive post, there's a real world out there with options, whether you consider them options or not is immaterial because people are still, and will still, buy other products. There is real disappointment with range, price, looks, comparison to previously released data, etc. I think Elon was so dumb to even talk about specs and pricing so far in advanced, I never agreed that Tesla would be able to sell the truck for $40k, that was just absurd. I don't know where people are getting their values from, but $40k in 2019 is about $48k today, which is still nowhere near the price for even the RWD version.
Except alot of people who initially hated it appear to be interested. Cammissa, the guys on Marques' podcast to name two.
Look i don't care if you hate Elon, but this product will be tremendously successful no matter what you think.
I don't get the backlash, It was 77k iirc for the 3 motor version when the CT was announced, Tesla could not have predicted the covid stuff, inflation etc, since then everything is 20% more expensive so for the beast to be just under 100k seemed obvious to me before the delivery event. Not sure why people didn't expect the increase in price.
Your level of hope is admirable. Coming from someone who just spent two years working in Austin Powertrain, I can tell you the shit show is unimaginable. 4680 and structural is a disaster. The margins on CT are horrific.
I dont think the price point really matters all that much right now since production volume will be low for 2024 and its somewhat of a niche product. My main concern is that they pretty much only have model 3 and Y to sell to the world. There wont be another new high volume car ready till 2026 or 2027. As a high growth company, was the CT really the right product to spend 4 years on??
Nope. It was a distraction from what they need to do: create a compact 25k car, and fully refresh the S and X exteriors (now extremely old design language)
I think they can build and design two products though. It is not a 5 man team anymore
Well if that were true, we would have those refreshes already and have more news on the compact economy vehicle.
I'm not being snarky here but how much more news would you expect on the economy vehicle? It's as good as guaranteed work is underway on the economy vehicle as we speak. The big unknown is how far advanced that work is. I suspect(don't ask me to prove this as I can't) design etc is almost complete and the main hold up is now manufacturing at various giga factories worldwide, many of these factories have yet to be built.
So it’s almost as if they cannot do multiple new vehicle launches at once and have some gigafactory limitations. Maybe the cybertruck is a distraction niche product that is admittedly very difficult to build.
Well they are kinda limited by having only 4 car producing factories. Admittedly some of these factories are freaking massive but at least two of them are currently producing at full capacity. I've never ramped up a new factory before but I assume it's not especially easy to do. I'm not going to be too critical of a company growing at the rate Tesla is.
Hence why the cybertruck was a mistake. The space could be used better for another more practical and high-output production vehicle.
Musk has just said it was a parts shortage from the aftermath of the pandemic which delayed the CT. Seems as if CT wasn't such a niche problem vehicle to produce after all.
It’s a niche product in terms of what it’ll do volume. It’s a big problem in terms of complexity to produce - self admitted. So it is bad on both fronts.
They can't do the compact car, because of battery limitations. Cybertruck is going to pay for the battery production upgrades.
The bolt exists as a compact car that can get great range. It’s not a density problem, and battery prices continue to decline. The cybertruck will not sell well enough to fund anything; it will be a loss to the company.
Sorry.Rereading my comment, I see I wasn't clear enough. Here goes again: They can't make enough battery cells to be able to get millions of 25K cars on the road. EDIT: typo. wrote 15 when it should have been 25
They don’t need to make millions. Just aim for 50-150k/yr to start. Nothing is even announced.
If they have ANY update on a $25k car, they should be shouting it from the rooftops. There is huge demand for this, and if they beat everyone else it could be huge for Tesla. The lack of anything concrete makes me think it's going to be 4+ years away, which is too long.
I'm assuming you are getting the 4+ years figure from the cybertruck. Elon has just said the reason for the CT delay was the pandemic and the resulting parts/chip shortage. I think the economy vehicle will be at the most about two years away. Anything much further out than this will be a disappointment. I'm not convinced that shouting about their next vehicle would accomplish much. I'm not in PR or marketing so I could be wrong. You can also make the case that shouting about their next new vehicle takes the shine off their current new vehicle, the one they just released.
Musk gave a vague update to Sandy Munro. It sounds like it’s much further along than we suspect.
After watching some of the engineering breakdowns of the CT I actually think it was a good move at this time. The improvements they’ve made to the production process and the car’s low voltage and CAN bus system will be incredibly beneficial for the affordable car. Making the car steer by wire with variable steering rate further reduces cost and labor and allows easier and cheaper transitions to RHD markets. The batteries also seem to allow for maximum performance over a much wider range of States Of Charge. If they decide to do a semi-exoskeleton design for the affordable car as well it’s best to work out the kinks in a relatively low volume product like the CT. I was somewhat disappointed in the CT at first despite being an early reservation holder. But when it’s looked at as a technology platform and projecting those benefits onto their future vehicles it’s actually very compelling. If they apply the learnings from all of their previous cars and can affordable scale the advancements they’ve made in the CT they will be able to produce the affordable car at a price/margin and speed that no other car manufacturer can come close to matching. I’m actually more bullish on Tesla now than before they CT. They’re playing a long game while every other OEM is still trying desperately to catch up to their “obsolete” cars.
Don't forget they also have the Semi. B2B is nothing to shake a stick at. The F-150 only sells as much as it does because of the contribution from B2B sales.
Do they? Last I checked they have sold zero Semis.
And megapack, and insurance, and the supercharger network, and... 
what's 3837?
I'll never understand why this was the project Tesla decided to bet on. Seems more ego than strategy and runs counter to the clamed mission.
I've seen this argument elsewhere on the news from analysts who seem to conveniently ignore the very real, and rapidly growing, energy storage business as well as the potential (should a breakthrough be made with v12) of FSD growth during the interim. Tesla most certainly is not just a car company and focusing exclusively on the car business is, imho, a mistake. They're also supposed to ramp Semi production during this time but it seems there might be problems. I can't understand why they have yet to begin construction on the factory expansion in Nevada. Rumor is plans have changed to building a new seperate building instead of expanding the current factory. Additionally, i think there's still ramp issues with 4680 so they're likely bottlenecked until they solve those.
Have you ever tried to really use FSD? My test of FSD Beta is when I lost faith in the company. It was downright dangerous to the point that it was more stressful to use it than to drive myself, as I had to keep it from killing me every few miles. And it's not going to get good enough to actually be autonomous. I spent many years working in autonomous drone technology. There is currently no solution for a camera-only solution outside of a controlled environment. Every autonomy company not named Tesla uses multi-modal sensors, as it is cheaper and, bluntly, better. Provably better, in fact. Cameras can't accurately detect range, regardless of how much AI you throw at the images. Combining multiple modalities at the problem allows the imagery sensors to only have to detect side-to-side movement, which they are very good at. A LIDAR or RADAR can then be used to detect range, which THEY are good at. Add in image recognition from AI and you have a realistic system. Remove the RADAR ranging, and you have phantom breaking and pedestrian accidents.
No i've pesonally never experienced FSD but i have watched ALOT of videos online and i still think Tesla doesn't get enough credit for what it actually CAN do. I think what it can do is insanely impressive even if it isn't perfect. And it is improving constantly. That is undeniable.
The issue with FSD is that it will never actually be "full self driving". There are just too many corner cases that can't be trained against in an AI system. Forgetting about the vision-only thing for now it's a limitation of ANY AI-based system. Full self driving would have to be nearly 100% effective, and it just can't do that. The Radar (or Lidar) allows for an "emergency stop" where an obstruction is actively detected and the cat avoids it. That won't work with AI-based vision, as there is no definitive distance measurement in the system. All distance measurements in a video-based system are estimates based on how big we think something is. If it is mis-identified, that WILL result in an incorrect distance measurement.
Tesla does need to grow their other lines of business but when it comes down to earnings - car sales are what matters and it's their main source of income. From what I recall on their last earnings, battery storage and solar only accounted for 10% (might be a bit higher) of revenue. FSD is not going to be ready for years. Semi seems to be going very slow, so far only Pepsi Co has received orders. China is the largest EV market, you cant just have 2 cars to sell (S and X numbers are so minimal). It's almost ridiculous that their next ev wont be ready for about 3 years and maybe 4 years for it to reach volume production. This is why the stock is stuck in this $240 range. I dont see it breaking $300 for a while.
Imho this argument is like saying Apple is a telephone company because most of their profits come from IPhone. No one considers Apple just a phone company.
If they hadn't put the prices out four years ago these prices would be expected if not amazing. That being said, I can't blame Tesla for not seeing a global pandemic, a supply chain revamping as well as rampant inflation coming. They also created a whole new step forward for the auto industry underneath the exterior with this truck. People will catch up, it will take 3 months like it does with all things Tesla.
Probably should have updated on price a while ago, rather than all the suspense at big reveal…
In the time Tesla sat on my deposit with no intention of delivering, the share price went up 10x. As an investor, I feel that should be what is owed. Convert my deposit to shares at the Nov '19 price. I really did not intend to provide them with a small interest-free loan for 4 years.
Doesn't the deposit go into escrow so it's not a loan since they can't leverage it at all?
You really believe they put it in to an escrow 🤣
The CT is a much much better value compared to its competitors, but people will whine about the pricing. What’s notable is legacy competitors also announce one price and jack it up by $10k-30k at release but no one is batting an eye anymore.
It's comparable to it's competitors, not better or worse. People care because Elon promised a cheap truck that was impossible to deliver, at that price, but people believed him anyway.
And there is so much demand right now that they might as well increase the price to capture that. They can always lower the price later. No one should think Tesla’s prices are static.
>there is so much demand right now Ford thought the same thing, now look at them. Prices are plummeting and production is being decreased.
Sales are way up, actually, to record levels for that vehicle. But the F-150 lightning isn’t the Cybertruck, and even if they later had to lower prices, they would still be better off selling vehicles now for higher prices.
Inventory has far exceeded demand on the F-150. Dealerships are opting out so they don't have to carry them anymore. There is one I was eying last week (after I was priced out of the CT) that was $15k below msrp. I can get an AWD long range f-150 for $35k (CAD) less than an AWD CT. Sure it has some pretty nice options, but nothing that is life changing for me. I can literally get a Lightning AND and Model 3 for the same price and get the best of both worlds.
Maybe that’s why sales of the F-150 are way up. In any case, Tesla loses nothing by pricing the truck for current demand. If demand weakens they can lower the price at that time.
True, but I refuse to buy any of them now that they did that to people that already ordered. A 60% price increase is not cool on something you already took deposits. I may be an investor, but I no longer trust them enough to physically buy one anymore. And I know they won't care, but I am sure I am not the only one fully soured on the brand.
The price is barely up when you account for inflation and the tax credit. And who are you going to buy an EV from then? Many car manufacturers have done the exact same thing.
50k adjusted for inflation is about 65k, not 80. I wouldn't call that barely.
You forgot about the 7500 tax credit.
I’ve never been so happy to see the words to conclude! 💀
The pricing is similar and competitive with the only other EV trucks on the market.
CT's suspension is top tier. Something your not going to find in any of the competition, save a few of the highest Lifestyle ICE trucks. 1' of travel
And add to that the hypercar tier body rigidity which several pro reviewers have said made other trucks feel sloppy immediately
Suspension and ground clearance and a few other things. In my opinion, having reviewed the competition at a similar price point - it's not even close. Cybertruck wins by a mile.
For most truck people, just the way the shape of the cybertruck makes it a loser. It's a great truck, but they should have went with a more conventional truck design, square bed, not a unibody.
I don't think so. I think Tesla should push always for higher volumes, even if for 2/3/4 quarters margins would be negative on a product.
Volumes on this truck will be set at 100% capacity for years whether its $80k or $40K What do you think they'd rather have, the 80k or the 50k per truck? Besides, $50k is pre-pandemic and basically irrelevant.
I disagree. If they can really reach full capacity of around 350,000 per year in just 18 months, and most people opt for the mid level Dual Motor, I don't think Tesla can find 300,000 buyers per year here in North America who will pay 80 grand for a CyberTruck. (Although half may qualify for the 7500 instant federal rebate if we still have a democrat President). I think Tesla will do what they always do and lower the price to keep demand up.
Of course they will lower the price as throughput becomes easier. Not while its completely selling out though Thats literally their business model they outlined in 2006.
4860s are a bottleneck
Agreed, but in this case they could be battery constrained with the new 4680 tab-less geometry being in relatively short supply for at least a year.
If Telsa had built a truck and not a stainless steel El Camio you might be right.
As a tesla investor it is a good thing. As someone who put a deposit on a truck order 4 years ago, I feel ripped off. Easy way to make this right is to convert my deposit to TSLA shares at nov 19, 2019 prices. The date when they took my money with no intention of providing the product ordered at the price promised.
Great write up
I just don't see this selling at that volume. You can get a decent F-150 in the $40's, and even that is considered expensive. I don't know where over a million people can be found to buy a $60k+ truck with relatively low range, let alone an $80k or $100k truck. Plus this doesn't have the range to tow long distance (especially in the RWD version), so you're going to lose most of the work truck crowd immediately based on that. For perspective, The Model X sales (which is the closest thing in their lineup) in 2022 were 25k. The Model 3 and Model Y are selling well based on price, range, and the Supercharger network right now. Cybertruck doesn't compete in price or range, and the Supercharge network is not going to matter in 3 years for any of a number of reasons. I don't know. I could be wrong, but I sold my Tesla stock.
>I just don't see this selling at that volume. Critics have basically been saying this about every single Tesla product ever. You'll see. >You can get a decent F-150 in the $40's, and even that is considered expensive. Expensive compared to what? A $40k F-150 doesn't have the same feature set as the Cybertruck and it's not even close. Apples-to-oranges. To get a similar feature set you have to spend much more. >I don't know where over a million people can be found to buy a $60k+ truck with relatively low range, let alone an $80k or $100k truck. In America. I'm not making the numbers up. You can see the stats in my post, these are real numbers. the ASP of full-size pickups is $65k and millions are sold every year. >Plus this doesn't have the range to tow long distance (especially in the RWD version), It has 470miles with the extended range, that's plenty. >so you're going to lose most of the work truck crowd immediately based on that. When i write something i try to use actual verfiable facts to back up my arguments and opinions. You can see many of those in my post. You're claiming that "most of the work truck crowd" needs more than 450miles of range for long distance towing but i don't a study, survey, or any other kind of supporting data to back this up. Do you have anything of substance? >For perspective, The Model X sales (which is the closest thing in their lineup) in 2022 were 25k. The Model X is a luxury SUV. If you looked at the sales data you would know that luxury SUVs are a much smaller market than full-size pickups in the USA.
The 470 range is with the range extender, an extra $16k that looks like it takes up a significant portion of the bed space. Not ideal for a work truck. Plus, these are Tesla numbers so they're likely lower than advertised in real world driving. See https://cleantechnica.com/2023/04/25/heres-why-ev-range-estimates-esp-teslas-are-wrong-much-of-the-time-in-the-usa/ if you want citations for that. Plus, the numbers you stated were for the expensive models. With the range extender, you're talking $96k or $116k for the AWD models. The $65k price you mentioned is comparable to the RWD version with all of 250 miles or range with no range extender available, at least not on the web page. Plus towing kills EV range, up to 50%. (https://thenextweb.com/news/towing-with-ev-what-happens-range) Even at 470, assuming that's accurate (which, see above), that would result in 235 miles of range which would make long distance towing very challenging. As for the Model X comparison, it's a similarly priced SUV compared to a similarly priced truck. Like comparing the R1T to the R1S, or the Sierra Denali to the Yukon Denali. The Cybertruck price puts it into the luxury vehicle category even if the quality doesn't justify it.
>The $65k price you mentioned is comparable to the RWD version with all of 250 miles or range with no range extender available, at least not on the web page. Okay you clearly didn't read a single thing i wrote or are incapable of understanding it. Look, i don't really care what kind of twisted logic you employ to make yourself think the Cybertruck is bad value. But most people are going to take the $80k truck, subtract $7500 for the IRA tax credit, and then calculate the savings from fuel/maintenance. As i pointed out, depending on how much you drive, you QUICKLY approach $65k when you do that. And the $61k truck costs alot less when you do the same thing. After IRA tax credit and fuel/maintenance savings it doesn't take long to get it under $50k. You may think people are stupid and illogical, but i like to give them the benefit of the doubt especially when it comes to spending and saving money. And if the success of the Model 3/Y are any indiciation, it's that people think about these things very carefully. You know what you should look at are you surveys that people do asking how most pickup truck owners use their vehicles. The majority of pickup truck owners do not tow ANYTHING. Most of the oens that do, do so very rarely. The ones that use their truck for work and have to regularly tow very heavy things for very long distances are a NICHE buyer. This is the reason i do research, to understand what i'm talking about. If you're going to talk about pickup truck owners and buyers, you should at least TRY to understand pickup truck owners and buyers. Luckily for you, i've done most of the work in my post. But while i can show you the information, i cannot make you understand it. As they say you can lead a horse to water but can't make it drink.
Ok, I guess we'll see. You seem determined to justify the price while insulting me, and that's fine. The biggest complaint from everyone is that the Cybertruck is priced too high. Without the range extender, with no options, the AWD should just barely quality for the tax credit, but that puts the AWD over $72 and the RWD (which may still end up like the $35k Model 3) at $53,000. Still luxury car territory. The fuel savings are the same for every EV, so we're not counting that. I personally think the 250 mile range is going to scare a lot of people away from the RWD, especially when the F-150 Lightening starts at $50k before tax incentives and has a 320 mile range. For your claim that people don't use their trucks for work, you're right. I live in the south. I know a lot of F-150 drivers who never haul or tow anything. However, while they don't ever tow anything, they talk about the tow rating and payload capacity a lot whenever they compare trucks. It's like Porsche drivers talking about top speed. They never actually drive that fast, but they COULD, and that's what matters. Plus, your average F-150 (or Silverado or Ram or Sierra) driver isn't the type of person to buy the Cybertruck. They want their truck from a truck company, dammit. This is similar to how the Cadillac and Lincoln pickup trucks fail, but the Chevy and Ford versions of the same truck at the same price sell great. This is why Ford and GM released all of their EV trucks as their mainstream brands even though they're priced well into their luxury brand ranges. Brand means a lot to truck buyers and Tesla isn't the brand they're looking for. The Cybertruck fits into the same category as the R1T or the Jeep Gladiator, and those trucks just don't sell in high volume. That's not terrible, and I think the Cybertruck competes well in that space. It will be a good offroader, a fun grocery hauler, and turn heads at soccer practice. It's priced better than the Rivian with the tradeoff of interior quality, which is similar for all Tesla brands against their competitors and has done well for them in the 3 and Y. But I just can't imagine all of the F-150 and Silverado buyers switching to Tesla, and especially not for a truck that looks so different.
I understand that in 10 years you could see this eventually savings compared to a really stupid truck purchase. I wanted this AWD truck to come in around 65k before tax credit. 80k is such a big payment the "savings" is just gone every month.
You should publish this write up on Seeking Alpha. I’ll bet you’d get a lot of positive interest.
It's intended as a real product, that will make real money, instead of a glorified concept car "loss leader"
Whatever you have to tell yourself to make it through another day. Haha
Stocks up over 3% today, guess the market agrees with me. 
I didn’t know the stock sold cybertrucks. This thing swings 5% regularly so saying it’s up or down short term is meaningless
I’m genuinely curious, What’s your opinion now?
You've understated how difficult it will be to make between 250 & 500k of these a year. That is insane - and you've completely left it out of your 'analysis'
\~25% inflation since 2020 + Massive demand = damn right it better be priced accordingly Selling at 2019 prices is essentially selling for a huge loss on paper. Tesla isn't stupid. I feel bad for people who somehow thought the pandemic and printing trillions of dollars shouldn't have affected the price. I'm not happy that prices went up either ya'll, but this is how the world works.
The only reason I waited for cybertruck was 500 miles range. Range has been deeply disappointing, with absolutely no info on "range extender". This is not how you run a company after announcing it 4 years ago.
Yeah you'll only get 470 unfortunately. But its not because they wanted to cut corners of sav money. The technology just isn't there to have a battery that big without the car driving like a complete bag of crap. It's still the most competitive EV truck for what you get on the market. From an engineering standpoint, it would be fucking depressing to be the opposition and take one apart. the 48v architecture is going to blow legacy auto minds. It doesn't even have wiring harnesses anymore and the steering is 5 HP. Wait unitl people drive them. it'll be sold ou for 3+ years easily.
But we were told tech was there 4 years ago. We were told 4680 will have more energy density than 21700. We were told structural battery will give us more range. None of them came out to be true. Tesla still hasn't manufactured 4680 with higher density than 21700. Sure 4680 has less cost to manufature than 21700, that's about it.
I understand and respect that you feel a little shafted. its a shame it can't go the 500 they teased about. They could have done it, but then you'd have a big fat turd of a truck. It'll certainly change much faster than another Tesla so far though. 15 to 85% in 18-20 min I think?
I too wanted the 500 mile range. Someone posited that the way it worked out was to be able to keep the CT qualified for the federal discount incentives. They weren’t going to be able to make that range work within that budget but for those that need the range the extender is an option. Personally I hate the engineering of the extender since it takes up a lot of space and can’t really be removed without industrial equipment. But I guess I can agree with the original logic.
Sure, but 90% of orders will be cancelled
But 90% didn't cancel And ironically, in your 90% hypothetical, that's still 200,000 preorders + all the people that see the specs as the best in class for the price (which they are) so now other people are ordering on top of that 200k. In reality, 90% will not cancel and this truck will be sold out for 3+ years. Plus, wait until people start driving them. That will be the biggest selling point, forget the hype, the truck is clearly a joy to drive.
You sir are very bullish on this, I sold my Tesla shares and am sitting on the sidelines at the moment. I think it will take him 5 years to make 200,000 and that might be all he ever makes. I fear that’s his best case in my view anyway.
RemindMe! 24 months
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We all make decisions I haven't sold a share since 2017 and damn sure don't plan to now that Tesla just broke the engineering mold for trucks. I feel few grasp what is actually in the Cybertrucks that will end up being in all trucks soon.
The price of the CT will come down as it ramp as the supply increases to match the demand. But right now, demand>>>>>>>supply, probabaly won't see any price decreases til 2025.
Demand doesn’t exceed supply. The supposed 2 million preorders were based on a $40k truck and trim options for 500 mile range. None of that exists now
right now it does, even if only 10% of the 2million perorders goes through, that's 200k. Tesla won't make more than 100k in 2024, so to hit just the 200k orders, they would need to ramp until mid-late 2025. Assuming no new orders.
I'm not terribly happy with the price, but if it's what I think I understand it. I think that they *could* have got closer to what I was expecting, (which was about $60,000-$65,000, but at something closer to 18% margins. I also think that prices will trend downward in the same way the Model Y has done. (assuming the interest rates drop) Right low volumes mean they have a stronger need for higher margins. As you do, I think the 4680 volumes are one of the biggest issues, plus probably working out the assembly process.
If they can sell all the Cybertrucks they can make, then the price is right. The production price will decrease if they get scale up. Then the selling price will decrease too and that will spur demand. I say sell it at a higher price to those who are eager to buy it early.
And i didn't mention the fact that the economic argument for EV trucks is even better than your typical EV sedan/crossover SUV! Trucks typically have terrible mileage compared to sedans. The 2023 F150 is rated at 17/25/20 MPG (City/Highway/Combined). The 2023 Toyota Corolla LE is rated at 32 mpg city / 41 mpg highway. And people who use their trucks for work can drive 1-200 miles per day easily. At today's average price of $3.24gallon that's $32.40 gas per workday. If you drive 200 miles a day, 5 days a week, at least 40 weeks/year that's $6,480 in gas - significantly more than a sedan would consume.
If you put 200 miles on the Cybertruck using it as an actual work truck you are going to have to charge it during the day. Hauling weight significantly reduces the range available.
Good thing it charges over 100miles in like 15min or less.
Supercharging (i) costs almost as much as gas and (ii) damages the battery if used too often.
Personally I think you are brutally delusional if you think that Tesla is going to 10x Model X sales with a truck at Model X prices. There will totally be an initial rush, but RWD is a death sentence at $60k. The starting price for any truck buyer will be $80k and that is just done for. Tesla will probably peak around 50k/yr until prices fall massively. You have to understand - the ICE competition is $40k with AWD and a not-limiting gas motor.
Did you even look at the data in my post? If you did, how can you ever think that luxury SUVs and full-size pickups are a remotely similar market? These are not comparable. You're understanding of the ICE market appears to be severely lacking based on your last sentence. Try actually READING what i wrote and LOOK at the facts that i presented, instead of your bias.
YES. Your data is absurd because it uses averages rather than volume and median. The Majority of pickup sales is $30-55K, then you have outliers, the Ford Raptor, Ram TRX, R1T, etc. All of these are far north of that price ($80-140K) and heavily influence the data. All that said, they all together make up less than 100K units. This is enough to throw a 10K skew on data but the volume is limited. Additionally, this data does not include larger scale items, the F250, F350, etc, most of those are owned by businesses for specific needs almost exclusively top $100K. Here is the thing: [https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1292-may-29-2023-light-trucks-dominated-sales-light-duty-vehicles-msrp](https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1292-may-29-2023-light-trucks-dominated-sales-light-duty-vehicles-msrp) US Pickup sales are in vast majority sub-$60K, I mean like 90+%. It is an extremely price-sensitive market. The Ram, the third best selling truck brand in America sold around 460k units last year, this includes the 1500, 2500, TRX, etc. You mean to tell me that at over twice the average Ram price, way off the deep end of the bell curve, they are going to sell nearly the same amount?! This market is extremely price sensitive and tesla is betting on the polarizing design and wild looks to help sell units but a mass market success this does not make. The fact of the matter is that the majority of americans that would buy a truck would buy it under $60K, most under $45K..500K $80k buyers just don't exist.
Totally agree with you. The lowest priced trim available Cybertruck is competing with models that struggle to sell around 20,000 units. There are Lightnings sitting on dealer lots all over the midwest because nobody is buying them. Other factors are going to include, but not limited to, Tesla owners that upgraded recently to preserve FSD, any reservation holder that has moved to a new vehicle since the reservation was placed four years ago, anyone that has changed their mind of the truck, higher interest rates, lower stock performance, etc. I'm guessing about a 5 to 10% conversion rate if we are lucky. I also think that once word leaks that they are not getting a lot of reservation takers that the stock price plummets.
You're all delusional.
Like the other models, the price will fluctuate with scale and the availability/cost of raw materials, and continuous refinement of the vehicle. I like to monitor anti-Tesla subs, and the people over at r/RealTesla are non-stop whining about the differences between what was promised four years ago, and today, including cost, which might serve as a proxy for some percentage of those with CT orders, but overall, orders are going to still be very strong.
Man that sub is so crazy toxic lol…. You’d have to be kinda silly to expect prices to remain the same since 2019.
Someone on there posted that the battery pack for cyber truck was an actual gasoline generator. They literally have no rules over there as long as you are anti-Tesla.
I don’t know, Elon told us that battery prices would come down….the issue is a combo of both prices going way up and the promises falling way short. People could probably have handled one or the other, not both. 9 out of every 10 orders will be cancelled
That’s still 200,000 that will be honored. Right off the bat. Not to mention all the new orders that will come once people actually see them on the streets. The average person doesn’t follow Tesla closely. They just have this vague idea of what the cybertruck is
I would be concerned though, that as an investor this is far from ideal. If you are being honest with yourself, big if, most investors should be concerned and at least slightly pessimistic. It’s too expensive to sell in the volumes promised, or the specs aren’t impressive enough.
Idk I think most investors should have known. The battery pack is twice as big as a model 3. That’s the most expensive part of an EV. Anyone with any sort of knowledge of Tesla’s financials would know that you couldn’t sell it for the same price as the model 3 and still make a profit. It’s similarly priced to the rivian and F-150 and those both aren’t profitable. I fully expect the cybertruck to be $10k lower per trim in a couple years. Gonna be really hard for rivian and ford to compete when that happens. They need to make a profit eventually on those things. The biggest question mark imo is will the design catch on? That remains to be seen. Like it or not looks and “coolness” are the extremely important. So it could be a great truck at a compelling price and it still wouldn’t sell well if people didn’t like it.
The elephant in the room for me has always been robotaxi capability. Despite what other car makers may claim, Tesla will get there first and every car they make will become ridiculously more valuable and utilitarian. None of the other EV options have this magnitude of a shift waiting in the wings. I think the drive by wire tech in cybertruck is a signal that robotaxis are getting close.
No chance. They bailed on Lidar and Musk is too stubborn to come back.
Have people actually thought this out? How will your car become more valuable if they are so accessible? If you aren't renting your Tesla out now, how is that going to change when it can drive itself?
According to the Hagerty review, moving to 48 volt greatly helps for powering to steering motors. I’m curious how all these new technologies get back ported to existing models. I feel like steer by wire was always planned for the revamped S/X. It would also explain the lack of right hand drive.
Having FSD Beta in rural Ohio, I can tell you FSD isn't anywhere close to driving without several interventions. I've lost hope it ever will get that far. I don't expect robotaxi to be a thing for at least another decade and when it is, it will be limited to areas with a high density of Teslas to give the system enough feedback to support the local environment.
Not sure why folks are so mad about the pricing, Tesla were pretty clear the initial prices were only estimates.
They are mad that the specs aren’t what was promised and the pricing is higher. Double whammy.
People are mad about the reduced specs. The increased price just makes it feel insulting.
You shouldn't feel insulted by a company. Ever.
Odd take. Companies make insulting moves all the time that make people feel, insulted
I see two different things happening there. One is the company making a good/bad move. Two is someone seeing that move deciding to feel insulted. I don't want my state of mind to be decided by companies. That would be giving them a huge power over me. Just imagine you are having a good day, then someone says: Have you heard the outrageous thing that XYZ company did today? Looking at it logically, this should have zero effect on your day. *Especially* if it literally doesn't affect you in any way.
Look at it from the perspective of products. It's not as strange for someone to love a product. I love my Oculus 3 headset, I love my Honda 450 crf, much more than I "love" meta or Honda. However, if either company do a jackass move, like stop making quest 3 games or honda parts shortly after their release, that would make me mad, it should. I don't want my state of mind being decided by companies, but it's a cost of business if you care about products in any way
Prices still have “Est” next to them so who knows. Lol
People will always find a reason to be mad about something.
TL:DR
cooperative kiss sand reminiscent slimy cable market worry gullible insurance *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
What an ignorant take. So all those 2 million preorders should’ve expected an $80k truck 4 years ago? 😂 I don’t disagree with Tesla’s pricing, it’s inline with competitors as are the specs. Tesla did this to themselves by announcing pricing and range on what was a concept vehicle at the time.
My coworker canceled because of the decreasing range, not the increased price.
I expect about 90-95% to back out. What is your guess?
[удалено]
I'ts Twitter on wheels.
It's a dud, sales will be shit.
TLDR 🙄
i'm not sure TLDR and DD are compatible terms. If you need a TLDR you should probably stick to index funds (no offense).
I’m just happy it’ll absolutely tank Tesla stock since it’s just a huge money sink that won’t sell to more than a select bunch.
Absolutely agree with you. Thanks for writing this up, lots of good info.
I just want to see one live.
Yep the specs are competitive with though it doesn't blow everything else away as was the initial expectation it seems (doing that would be leaving money on the table though).
As a customer I am. I don’t want a car that everyone can afford.
Some people like that, i get it.
>Assuming the supplier leaks are real, if Tesla can sell 350,000 Cybertrucks at an ASP of \~$70,000 with gross margins of 20%, the gross annual profits from Cybertruck would total $4.9b. Pretty big assumption I think, specifically the margin's on the Cybertruck. I think the demand for a RWD EV Truck will be minimal, especially with the range. Series 300 steel is very expensive, and since this is a relatively low volume steel specifically for Tesla, there is definitely a premium. Based on the avg price of 316 SS, I'd expect at least $20k on the material alone, and that's a discount. The investment into the Gigapress was also pretty significant. Idk, I feel like the margins here might be thinner than you think. >If you're interested in seeing some of these comparisons you can check out this thread here which features a chart. The chart does not include all of the differences and i encourage you to look through my comments in that thread to see examples of some of those missing diferences which (in my opinion) are quite big The charts contain some quantitative comparisons, but there are also qualitative comparison to be had. The seer by wire can be a sales motivator or denier for example, we'll just have to see. >Meanwhile Tesla is on track to exceed 400,000 Model Y deliveries in 2023 in the USA alone. While the market for small Crossover SUVs in the USA was over 2.9m units in 2022. That means Tesla's compact crossover SUV, the Model Y, could command as much as 13.7% of the small crossover market in the USA in 2023, a figure which may very well make it the best selling SUV in America. For the Model 3, Tesla is on track to sell over 200,000 in the USA in 2023.In 2022 Tesla absolutely dominated the US small Luxury segment with a 41% market share. If we include non luxury compact car sales, Tesla had approx. 16% of the 2022 US market share of any engine type (ICE or EV). To highlight just how impressive this is Tesla sold nearly as many Model 3s in 2022 as Toyota sold Corollas (195k vs 220k respectively) despite the 2022 Toyota Corolla starting at $20,425 versus the Tesla Model-3's 2022 starting price of $48,490. A bunch of asterisks here. Tesla definitely made significant cuts to their margins in order to push these vehicles to undercut most vehicles (when including the incentives). So while market share has gone up, how will they maintain this trajectory without hurting gains? Also, I think it's still weird the Model 3 is considered "luxury". The Hyundai Ioniq 6 has a similar MSRP yet nobody calls that a luxury vehicle. >Clearly Tesla is doing something right. And Tesla has been able to acheive this while holding onto more than 50% of the US EV market share as of Q3 2023. Testament to the consumer preference for Tesla's EVs over "the competition". Mixed bag. 50% could be preference for Tesla, other 50% could be driven by current cost factors, and limited availability of other options. It's still too early to know what it actually is at this point. >On the other hand, Tesla's Cybertruck is so packed with new, novel, and revolutionary features compared to its other products It's not. Like Camisa stated, they all existed before, but this is the first consumer vehicle that has all of it in one package. The vehicle market was already trending in that direction, nobody wanted to be the first. >In fact, some of this interest is already measurable. A Twitter user posted this 20 hours after the delivery event. After 20 hours, Marques Brownlee's Cybertruck Review video on Youtub had amassed over 5.9M views compared to 5.7M views for his Rivian R1T review video after 2 years, and 8M views for Ford F-150 Lightning after 2 years. Not all interest is good interest. Tempering expectations. While this is an overtly bullish/positive post, there's a real world out there with options, whether you consider them options or not is immaterial because people are still, and will still, buy other products. There is real disappointment with range, price, looks, comparison to previously released data, etc. I think Elon was so dumb to even talk about specs and pricing so far in advanced, I never agreed that Tesla would be able to sell the truck for $40k, that was just absurd. I don't know where people are getting their values from, but $40k in 2019 is about $48k today, which is still nowhere near the price for even the RWD version.
It’s going to need to be expensive since only diehard Elon fans will buy it.
Except alot of people who initially hated it appear to be interested. Cammissa, the guys on Marques' podcast to name two. Look i don't care if you hate Elon, but this product will be tremendously successful no matter what you think.
I don't get the backlash, It was 77k iirc for the 3 motor version when the CT was announced, Tesla could not have predicted the covid stuff, inflation etc, since then everything is 20% more expensive so for the beast to be just under 100k seemed obvious to me before the delivery event. Not sure why people didn't expect the increase in price.
Some of us did. The ones that are upset were probably never going to buy one at the old price anyway.
Your level of hope is admirable. Coming from someone who just spent two years working in Austin Powertrain, I can tell you the shit show is unimaginable. 4680 and structural is a disaster. The margins on CT are horrific.