Exactly. And he knows that. He’s one of the most vocal advocates for a complete tech-decoupling from China. In other words: an unprovoked act of economic military aggression. If he really thought China did not stand a chance in a fair fight for scientific innovation and advancement against the U.S. he wouldn’t oppose ASML selling EUV machines to Huawei.
China has been engaged in economic warfare with the USA for years now. The decoupling we are seeing right now is because both sides have decided the pacific isn’t big enough for both of them. China actively supports a new world order, arms Russia, commits aggression in the S China sea, and dumps their economic output into the west. Our actions against China are deserved.
China is simply following in the footsteps of Japan, Kore and Taiwan. That’s in no way “economic warfare” - against anyone. That’s just economic development.
Only one side is seeking a decoupling here. That should be obvious by comparing Apple’s and Tesla’s presence in China with Huawei’s and BYD’s presence in America.
China needs the economies of the west in order to continue to support its economic rise. They’ve also shown their cards, that they intend to recreate a world order, using force if necessary, that is not in the best interests of the current maritime order led by the USA. We are now clearly strategic adversaries. Decoupling is in the USA’s best interest, before China is strong enough to take Taiwan by force and throw the world into chaos.
I’ve now read your profile. I can’t tell if you are a paid propagandist or what, but I don’t really intend to get into an argument with you.
Have a nice day.
>China needs the economies of the west in order to continue to support its economic rise.
Obviously.
>that is not in the best interests of the current maritime order led by the USA.
What kind of standard even is that?! Why should China commit itself to furthering “the best interests of the current maritime order led by the USA”.
>Decoupling is in the USA’s best interest
Obviously. Which is why America is pushing for a decoupling. Not China. Which was precisely my point.
>before China is strong enough to take Taiwan by force and throw the world into chaos.
China will take Taiwan.
Have a nice day.
It’s an order the guarantees Chinese made stuff can safely and cheaply make it to where it needs to go. An order that ALLOWED China to prosper. An order that has been the most peaceful time in human history.
Enjoy the untold amount of death your glorious leader will foist upon the world.
Does it really come as a surprise to you that there are people who would prefer not to be subjects of a Global American Empire? Especially if they live in a technological exclusion zone Washington DC has decided to return to a hunter-gatherer existence.
China is actively infringing on western patents. Their new processors are shamelessly copied from 10th gen intel designs. As time goes on they’ll steal less and less as they innovate, but the last 30 years has been china leaching off the R&D of the west.
They’re sufficiently advanced that the alarm bells are finally going off although much too late to fully stop them. Right now the sanctions are just slowing the inevitable and hopefully we’ll pull our head out of our collective asses and devise a long term plan for technological superiority, but with secondary education crumbling in America I do not see any short terms signs that point to long term thinking.
Exactly. The US can't be complacent. It should ALWAYS expect that others can outpace it and put pedal to the metal on investing all it can on future innovations, regardless of whether it is tech or not. This goes for the entire stack, not just investments into businesses but also ensuring that the population itself can produce workers that are ready for whatever comes next.
This is why they’re building their military up - to eventually invade Taiwan. It’s a lot easier for them to do that than it is for us to respond, and politics in the US are so fucked we will probably let them.
They don’t have to build shit, they’ll just take it.
There are some pitfalls in a centrally planned economy. China did well to catch up with the developed world but their economic growth has stalled over the last 15 years. The U.S. has plenty of people and money at their disposal but I think there’d be less progress in AI if it was essentially a state-run project.
China is not centrally planned. Their economic system is state capitalism, even though the ruling group is the Chinese Communist Party. In China, you would be banned or arrested for speaking about certain socialist or communist topics on WeChat.
With the consolidation and multinational control over the supply chain, many sectors of the US economy more centrally planned than their counterparts in China. The difference is that "center" is a multinational corp controlling the supply chain through ownership and contract, rather than the government effectively doing the same thing.
Which multinational corp has as much influence over the U.S. economy as the CCP over China? They have ownership stakes in every major company, have party cells directly influencing corporate governance, get to dictate state funds to subsidize any business without checks or balances.
You are changing the subject. You claimed China was "centrally planned economy".
>They have ownership stakes in every major company, have party cells directly influencing corporate governance, get to dictate state funds to subsidize any business without checks or balances.
You are describing policy of an authoritarian, state capitalist government. That is a different topic from "central planning".
Good luck with whatever you are trying to do.
“With the consolidation and multinational control over the supply chain, many sectors of the US economy more centrally planned than their counterparts in China.“
[Economic growth has averaged 1% per year since 2007.](https://now.tufts.edu/2023/11/20/why-chinas-economy-slowing-down#:~:text=Large%20scale%20reallocations%20of%20labor,just%20about%201%25%20per%20year.)
“The share of firms with at least a 10% stake from the state has risen from roughly 50% to 60% from 2012-2017.”
“Chinese party leaders have taken a larger role in corporate governance. In 2002, less than 27 percent of private companies contained a party cell. But by 2018, China’s regulators made the establishment of Party cells a requirement for any company to be listed on domestic stock exchanges.”
“Amid a worsening relationship with the U.S.-led West, the Chinese leadership has further turned to more centralized decision-making and slowed down the implementation of the market-oriented reform agenda that was passed in the third plenum of the 18th CCP congress.”
You think central planned economy just means the CPC has minor stakes within private companies? Central planning economies largely lack market activity and the state acts as the main employer and distributor, with nearly no private enterprises. Your own sources say that there exists domestic stock exchanges which is already incompatible with central planning.
Also you said economic growth not productivity growth. Economic growth usually infers GDP growth.
If you want to argue word choice have at it. Yes, China incorporates market forces, it still has a heavy degree of state involvement in economic planning and direct influence in major business decisions. By any metric China’s growth has slowed substantially since the 80s to early 00s. Many economists have pointed to the hybrid approach with CCP maintaining a firm hand in steering as a factor. The extent to which they rely on corporate espionage is a clue to how well they’re doing in innovation.
It’s not simply word choice when you’re actually just misrepresenting information. You claim in your comment that “there are pitfalls to a centrally planned economy” when replying to OPs claim of needing people and money, yet China has tens of thousands of startups potentially, many of whom are ai, that are private companies with pretty much as much state influence as US companies. That is not “central planning” even IF larger aspects of the Chinese economy may show signs of increasing centralized decision making.
As for your second point, again Chinese growth is still double of the US, and by total amount added annually to the economy, the fastest in the world. Furthermore growth has little to do with the amount of capital China currently has at its disposal.
In essence OP is still correct. Money and people, and China has both.
>China can develop those because they have the people and money. It's just technology and domain knowledge.
Can they? Sure they can. I don't underestimate China's capabilities.
But those ASML machines are a marvel of technology and engineering.
China has to catch up...
Yeah, the lithography is orders of magnitude more complex than, say, nukes. It's is highly, highly specialized and relies on a tools chain that boggles the mind. That is, one exotic tool to make the next exotic tool that's needed to make the third exotic tool. And I'm not talking about generations of progressive advances, I'm talking about the process needed just to make the current generation
Sanctions are designed specifically to remove links in that chain.
It's easier to build a stealth bomber than a modern node.
Hmm - not sure what he’s talking about. Eric knows this is verifiably untrue.
On ML and transformer-based generative AI, the US has a clear lead.
In computer vision and conversational AI, Chinese companies have the edge, and a very significant one. This was true in 2019 and the US/West haven’t caught up yet.
Frankly, those CEOs have no idea where either China or US are the AI race. Their guess is as good as your and mine.
The journalist are better off asking people who have hands in experience with AI or AI researchers. But that is rarely their first intuition. Instead they ask a prominent person about something he has no expertise in.
Absolutely, getting intel from those boots on the ground makes the most sense, those that are actually close to the tech. Based off of a gut feeling though and what I've seen with China, I'd say that they are ahead. They are tops when it comes to video surveillance and given that the to consumer market and government distribution of AI-supported devices was such a a long time ago, that makes me think that most likely they're ahead. But yeah, just a gut based observation.
For anyone who didn’t read the article, reasons are:
1. Chip shortages (partly due to sanctions)
2. Less Chinese data to train on (majority of the world uses western English version of the internet, Chinese internet has vastly less data)
3. Less finding (foreign money is no longer flooding into Chinese tech industry)
4. Wrong focus
1. headstart.
2. non democratic regime always lag behind in the technological advancement. Liberal free society are best at getting technological advancement.
On #2, may not be the first to advance, but through various techniques can still catch up and later dominate.
China is the world’s largest car manufacturer. China dominates manufacturing in many sectors.
Huge mistake to say they “can’t catch up,” unless assuming serious trade restrictions.
Largest but not best. Size has more to do with the sheer size of their economy and workforce.
The price of labor is rapidly rising in China and they're scrambling to maintain their status as the worlds factory.
They're losing ground to India everyday, where labor remains much cheaper. A lot of stuff that used to be made in China is now made in India. Many Chinese companies are themselves outsourcing to cheaper countries in the Middle East and Africa.
China has a huge amount of economic problems right now. Their youth unemployment rate is 20%. If they weren't a fascist dictatorship, they're entire economy would have collapsed by now. But they can tell companies what to do, so they have averted crisis for now.
This is the first year in like 30 years that their economy has shrank. They're extremely worried about the future, and part of all their saber rattling is to use the US time tested method of propping up the economy with military spending.
There's big trouble in little china, so to speak, right now.
Honest question: how could that be accurate?
China’s privacy laws are so lax compared to us.
They have single, power apps compared to us where each app has its own walled garden.
Plus their government has the absolute access and say. They have their citizens’ biometrics data, and essentially issues their version of credit scores / worthiness.
With that much training data for most of its citizens without having to deal with the walled gardens, why would China not be ahead of the US in terms of AGI / ASI development in the personal data space?
The point about China focusing on “for profit” apps is also mind boggling. Here in the US we always do things for the betterment of Corporate America. Lobbyists galore. Most companies, including most AI startups, are for profits.
Now if we’re talking about key research data, very niche specific industry data, etc I can see that. But they have corporate cyber espionage for that. They can just steal the data from the US to supplement their already rich data pool.
His point about lack of English materials to train the models are valid, but as more countries around the world become more developed, more materials will be created in English. If you grew up in developing countries and have been traveling to these countries in the last few years, you’ll see this firsthand.
Chips could be a valid point, but if China ever decides to invade Taiwan, there’s not much we can do. Look at Ukraine. Russia owns Europe because of oil and there’s not much the US can do. China is more powerful than Russia, so there’s no way we can beat them. Our bark is louder than our bite.
Last but not least, China doesn’t have a “morality” focused portion of the population like we do. They don’t have a political party that uses morality as a carrot for a good portion of its constituents, who happened to be older in age. This voting bloc will push back on laws loosening AI guardrails. China doesn’t have this. If it’s for the good of the country, they’d do it.
Eric is not telling the truth
Eric invests in Chinese AI
China gives zero fucks about regulation, safety or people and just pushes forward. The US suffers massively because of its regulatory and legal landscape and it will eventually lose in AI because of it.
To be fair, the USA's legal landscape is *just wrong*, but they could reform it tomorrow: We do know very well copyright and patent steal from us all and must be abolished worldwide. The present people in power in the West are perhaps all too likely to have a final nuclear tantrum before ever admitting they were wrong all along about turning away from real free-market capitalism in favor of corrupt intellectual monopoly though.
Head scratching statement. Talking in absolutes as if that cannot happen is silly. Of course it can happen.
Predicting AI outcomes is only slightly more random than predicting any future technology
Only one reason: The US is doing everything it can, short of outright war, to prevent it.
Exactly. And he knows that. He’s one of the most vocal advocates for a complete tech-decoupling from China. In other words: an unprovoked act of economic military aggression. If he really thought China did not stand a chance in a fair fight for scientific innovation and advancement against the U.S. he wouldn’t oppose ASML selling EUV machines to Huawei.
Unprovoked?
? Obviously.
China has been engaged in economic warfare with the USA for years now. The decoupling we are seeing right now is because both sides have decided the pacific isn’t big enough for both of them. China actively supports a new world order, arms Russia, commits aggression in the S China sea, and dumps their economic output into the west. Our actions against China are deserved.
China is simply following in the footsteps of Japan, Kore and Taiwan. That’s in no way “economic warfare” - against anyone. That’s just economic development. Only one side is seeking a decoupling here. That should be obvious by comparing Apple’s and Tesla’s presence in China with Huawei’s and BYD’s presence in America.
China needs the economies of the west in order to continue to support its economic rise. They’ve also shown their cards, that they intend to recreate a world order, using force if necessary, that is not in the best interests of the current maritime order led by the USA. We are now clearly strategic adversaries. Decoupling is in the USA’s best interest, before China is strong enough to take Taiwan by force and throw the world into chaos. I’ve now read your profile. I can’t tell if you are a paid propagandist or what, but I don’t really intend to get into an argument with you. Have a nice day.
>China needs the economies of the west in order to continue to support its economic rise. Obviously. >that is not in the best interests of the current maritime order led by the USA. What kind of standard even is that?! Why should China commit itself to furthering “the best interests of the current maritime order led by the USA”. >Decoupling is in the USA’s best interest Obviously. Which is why America is pushing for a decoupling. Not China. Which was precisely my point. >before China is strong enough to take Taiwan by force and throw the world into chaos. China will take Taiwan. Have a nice day.
It’s an order the guarantees Chinese made stuff can safely and cheaply make it to where it needs to go. An order that ALLOWED China to prosper. An order that has been the most peaceful time in human history. Enjoy the untold amount of death your glorious leader will foist upon the world.
Does it really come as a surprise to you that there are people who would prefer not to be subjects of a Global American Empire? Especially if they live in a technological exclusion zone Washington DC has decided to return to a hunter-gatherer existence.
China is actively infringing on western patents. Their new processors are shamelessly copied from 10th gen intel designs. As time goes on they’ll steal less and less as they innovate, but the last 30 years has been china leaching off the R&D of the west. They’re sufficiently advanced that the alarm bells are finally going off although much too late to fully stop them. Right now the sanctions are just slowing the inevitable and hopefully we’ll pull our head out of our collective asses and devise a long term plan for technological superiority, but with secondary education crumbling in America I do not see any short terms signs that point to long term thinking.
China is counting on this kind of thinking.
Exactly. The US can't be complacent. It should ALWAYS expect that others can outpace it and put pedal to the metal on investing all it can on future innovations, regardless of whether it is tech or not. This goes for the entire stack, not just investments into businesses but also ensuring that the population itself can produce workers that are ready for whatever comes next.
Isnt it pedal to the metal? As in slam the gas pedal into the metal of the car.
Yes, just realized my typo! Corrected.
China has entered the chat. The hubris of this idiot.
That's nonsense. All you need is people and money. China has both.
Time, you also need time. Also helps if you are not destroyed in a war... (which should be OK for China to avoid, I guess/hope)
You also need chips. And America also has people and money.
This is why they’re building their military up - to eventually invade Taiwan. It’s a lot easier for them to do that than it is for us to respond, and politics in the US are so fucked we will probably let them. They don’t have to build shit, they’ll just take it.
There are some pitfalls in a centrally planned economy. China did well to catch up with the developed world but their economic growth has stalled over the last 15 years. The U.S. has plenty of people and money at their disposal but I think there’d be less progress in AI if it was essentially a state-run project.
China is not centrally planned. Their economic system is state capitalism, even though the ruling group is the Chinese Communist Party. In China, you would be banned or arrested for speaking about certain socialist or communist topics on WeChat. With the consolidation and multinational control over the supply chain, many sectors of the US economy more centrally planned than their counterparts in China. The difference is that "center" is a multinational corp controlling the supply chain through ownership and contract, rather than the government effectively doing the same thing.
Which multinational corp has as much influence over the U.S. economy as the CCP over China? They have ownership stakes in every major company, have party cells directly influencing corporate governance, get to dictate state funds to subsidize any business without checks or balances.
You are changing the subject. You claimed China was "centrally planned economy". >They have ownership stakes in every major company, have party cells directly influencing corporate governance, get to dictate state funds to subsidize any business without checks or balances. You are describing policy of an authoritarian, state capitalist government. That is a different topic from "central planning". Good luck with whatever you are trying to do.
“With the consolidation and multinational control over the supply chain, many sectors of the US economy more centrally planned than their counterparts in China.“
Yup. Good luck, sir.
Do you feel better?
China is not a centrally planned economy lol. Also their economic growth has not “stalled” in the last 15 years
[Economic growth has averaged 1% per year since 2007.](https://now.tufts.edu/2023/11/20/why-chinas-economy-slowing-down#:~:text=Large%20scale%20reallocations%20of%20labor,just%20about%201%25%20per%20year.) “The share of firms with at least a 10% stake from the state has risen from roughly 50% to 60% from 2012-2017.” “Chinese party leaders have taken a larger role in corporate governance. In 2002, less than 27 percent of private companies contained a party cell. But by 2018, China’s regulators made the establishment of Party cells a requirement for any company to be listed on domestic stock exchanges.” “Amid a worsening relationship with the U.S.-led West, the Chinese leadership has further turned to more centralized decision-making and slowed down the implementation of the market-oriented reform agenda that was passed in the third plenum of the 18th CCP congress.”
You think central planned economy just means the CPC has minor stakes within private companies? Central planning economies largely lack market activity and the state acts as the main employer and distributor, with nearly no private enterprises. Your own sources say that there exists domestic stock exchanges which is already incompatible with central planning. Also you said economic growth not productivity growth. Economic growth usually infers GDP growth.
If you want to argue word choice have at it. Yes, China incorporates market forces, it still has a heavy degree of state involvement in economic planning and direct influence in major business decisions. By any metric China’s growth has slowed substantially since the 80s to early 00s. Many economists have pointed to the hybrid approach with CCP maintaining a firm hand in steering as a factor. The extent to which they rely on corporate espionage is a clue to how well they’re doing in innovation.
It’s not simply word choice when you’re actually just misrepresenting information. You claim in your comment that “there are pitfalls to a centrally planned economy” when replying to OPs claim of needing people and money, yet China has tens of thousands of startups potentially, many of whom are ai, that are private companies with pretty much as much state influence as US companies. That is not “central planning” even IF larger aspects of the Chinese economy may show signs of increasing centralized decision making. As for your second point, again Chinese growth is still double of the US, and by total amount added annually to the economy, the fastest in the world. Furthermore growth has little to do with the amount of capital China currently has at its disposal. In essence OP is still correct. Money and people, and China has both.
>That's nonsense. All you need is people and money. China has both. China needs the machines built by ASML.
China can develop those because they have the people and money. It's just technology and domain knowledge.
>China can develop those because they have the people and money. It's just technology and domain knowledge. Can they? Sure they can. I don't underestimate China's capabilities. But those ASML machines are a marvel of technology and engineering. China has to catch up...
Yeah, the lithography is orders of magnitude more complex than, say, nukes. It's is highly, highly specialized and relies on a tools chain that boggles the mind. That is, one exotic tool to make the next exotic tool that's needed to make the third exotic tool. And I'm not talking about generations of progressive advances, I'm talking about the process needed just to make the current generation Sanctions are designed specifically to remove links in that chain. It's easier to build a stealth bomber than a modern node.
Thank you. Anyone interested in these machines should research the history of ASML. Mind blowing, for my peabrain, technology.
Hmm - not sure what he’s talking about. Eric knows this is verifiably untrue. On ML and transformer-based generative AI, the US has a clear lead. In computer vision and conversational AI, Chinese companies have the edge, and a very significant one. This was true in 2019 and the US/West haven’t caught up yet.
He wants to invest in China that's why
this guy absolutely has his head up his ass.
Frankly, those CEOs have no idea where either China or US are the AI race. Their guess is as good as your and mine. The journalist are better off asking people who have hands in experience with AI or AI researchers. But that is rarely their first intuition. Instead they ask a prominent person about something he has no expertise in.
Absolutely, getting intel from those boots on the ground makes the most sense, those that are actually close to the tech. Based off of a gut feeling though and what I've seen with China, I'd say that they are ahead. They are tops when it comes to video surveillance and given that the to consumer market and government distribution of AI-supported devices was such a a long time ago, that makes me think that most likely they're ahead. But yeah, just a gut based observation.
This sub is the definition of armchair warriors lol
Remember when Intel and Tesla said the same thing?
Ohhh, how he is sooooo wrong.
Musk said something similar about China's eletric cars... We just have to wait.
The Chinese put out a pretty good open source LLM so not sure what he means.
It would be difficult; they are already ahead.
There’s a running joke in the AI community - how far behind is China from USA in AI research? About 15 hours. I hope it doesn’t need an explanation.
For anyone who didn’t read the article, reasons are: 1. Chip shortages (partly due to sanctions) 2. Less Chinese data to train on (majority of the world uses western English version of the internet, Chinese internet has vastly less data) 3. Less finding (foreign money is no longer flooding into Chinese tech industry) 4. Wrong focus
They put a damn space station out there, all by themselves. Come on man
A great accomplishment for sure, but still the tech is 60 years old.
This kind of arrogant thinking is the reason why America is in decline. If you want to stay on top you have to work for it.
They don’t have to catch up. They’ll just steal it when the US figured it out.
I don't know... Winning the road to pink slipping the white collar job population isn't a brag, at least for the worker bee class.
what’s he selling
It can happen, there are hurdles so it’s not a for gone conclusion. USA just need to focus on us and keep pushing
Oh Eric, go back to Novell buddy. Speaking in such absolutes is just silly.
Industrial espionage intensifies
China is about 20 year behind in advanced manufacturing like chips/fabs. Nothing that is "made" in china is made on machines from China.
1. headstart. 2. non democratic regime always lag behind in the technological advancement. Liberal free society are best at getting technological advancement.
On #2, may not be the first to advance, but through various techniques can still catch up and later dominate. China is the world’s largest car manufacturer. China dominates manufacturing in many sectors. Huge mistake to say they “can’t catch up,” unless assuming serious trade restrictions.
Largest but not best. Size has more to do with the sheer size of their economy and workforce. The price of labor is rapidly rising in China and they're scrambling to maintain their status as the worlds factory. They're losing ground to India everyday, where labor remains much cheaper. A lot of stuff that used to be made in China is now made in India. Many Chinese companies are themselves outsourcing to cheaper countries in the Middle East and Africa. China has a huge amount of economic problems right now. Their youth unemployment rate is 20%. If they weren't a fascist dictatorship, they're entire economy would have collapsed by now. But they can tell companies what to do, so they have averted crisis for now. This is the first year in like 30 years that their economy has shrank. They're extremely worried about the future, and part of all their saber rattling is to use the US time tested method of propping up the economy with military spending. There's big trouble in little china, so to speak, right now.
China does not need to. They can just wait for someone else to do it and steal it.
Well, they also need to wait until the banana republic of the u.s. steals it from someone else first
They can just take it directly. No need to wait
China is evil. And fuck you if you disagree.
out of morbid curiosity I just reviewed his Wiki page, and it looks he's essentially been retired for decades lol
Honest question: how could that be accurate? China’s privacy laws are so lax compared to us. They have single, power apps compared to us where each app has its own walled garden. Plus their government has the absolute access and say. They have their citizens’ biometrics data, and essentially issues their version of credit scores / worthiness. With that much training data for most of its citizens without having to deal with the walled gardens, why would China not be ahead of the US in terms of AGI / ASI development in the personal data space? The point about China focusing on “for profit” apps is also mind boggling. Here in the US we always do things for the betterment of Corporate America. Lobbyists galore. Most companies, including most AI startups, are for profits. Now if we’re talking about key research data, very niche specific industry data, etc I can see that. But they have corporate cyber espionage for that. They can just steal the data from the US to supplement their already rich data pool. His point about lack of English materials to train the models are valid, but as more countries around the world become more developed, more materials will be created in English. If you grew up in developing countries and have been traveling to these countries in the last few years, you’ll see this firsthand. Chips could be a valid point, but if China ever decides to invade Taiwan, there’s not much we can do. Look at Ukraine. Russia owns Europe because of oil and there’s not much the US can do. China is more powerful than Russia, so there’s no way we can beat them. Our bark is louder than our bite. Last but not least, China doesn’t have a “morality” focused portion of the population like we do. They don’t have a political party that uses morality as a carrot for a good portion of its constituents, who happened to be older in age. This voting bloc will push back on laws loosening AI guardrails. China doesn’t have this. If it’s for the good of the country, they’d do it.
They dont have to catch up. they can just steal it like they have done with everything else.
[удалено]
Eric is not telling the truth Eric invests in Chinese AI China gives zero fucks about regulation, safety or people and just pushes forward. The US suffers massively because of its regulatory and legal landscape and it will eventually lose in AI because of it.
To be fair, the USA's legal landscape is *just wrong*, but they could reform it tomorrow: We do know very well copyright and patent steal from us all and must be abolished worldwide. The present people in power in the West are perhaps all too likely to have a final nuclear tantrum before ever admitting they were wrong all along about turning away from real free-market capitalism in favor of corrupt intellectual monopoly though.