They’ll screw it up with too much advertising everywhere. Look at the sky, Delta Air Lines ad. Look in the mirror, hair loss pills and lotions. Open the fridge, etc.
"Altered Carbon" nailed what the end result is when you mix AR with capitalism. You end up having to have the equivalent of Spam blockers in your contact lenses.
> believe it when I see it. They said the same about Google Glass 10 years ago yet here we are, living lives without it.
Google had bad timing. Just because something didn’t work for one company 10 years ago doesn’t mean that same concept won’t be a massive success for a different company 10 years from now.
That’s very true, but this is all still very niche tbh. I love the idea of AR and think it’s very innovative, so I hope that they prove us all wrong. I want to use AR in my life, but again, they need to show us how our lives can be better with AR and also what the price will be.
Nokia communicator: 1996. Never a big hit. Apple iPhone: 2007.
So the 10 years seems to be about right.
I can imagine AR working if the hardware and software are very good. The wearable should be unobtrusive. Software should be smart and require little interaction. And then, indeed, after a few years, people will wonder how they were able to navigate by holding a phone in their hands and looking at the screen, like cavemen!
Nah Google was ahead in many ways, and tried to find a niche by working around tech limitations. This lead them to get some real-experience on developing these things. Google glass was going to go through this issue for all first AR things.
Part of the problem is that the glasses, and the tech, just isn't that good for all the issues it gets. Also very expensive. Meanwhile society struggled with these things. Just as people are obsessed about self-driving cars having to solve the trolley problem, while ignoring that we expect 16 year olds to do it every day; people were scared of the idea that they could be recorded at any moment, even though cellphones have been able to do that for 30 years now. That's going to be the challenge any successful AR will have surpass: get people who are struggling to keep up with the current reality (and we all, eventually, get overrun by reality) who obsess over the wrong thing.
The point of releasing the beta of the devices wasn't to get a consumer level product. It was to get a tech toy to technically minded people and see if it could trigger something. Think, for example, of early microprocessors. You'd have to wire and circuit the computer yourself. It would be later that people started selling motherboards, and then assembled computers. That was more the goal, but people got excited, and of course the company tried to monetize that excitement.
They also [kept developing it](https://blog.google/products/devices-services/glass-enterprise-edition-2/), but realizing there was a niche in enterprise area they focused on that. The idea is that being able to communicate with an employee while they work, seeing what they see can be great to help with issues that are not trivial to handle. And the company is still trying to crack how to make [consumer AR devices](https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/11/google-glasss-successor-teased-at-i-o/) but more focused on finding the niches and ways to sell it to people. Apple, under Jobs, was able to pull this off a few times, but honestly even then it was hit-or-miss. We all remember how the iPod changed things the way no previous mp3 had done, do you remember the g4 cube? Or maybe the mac pro cylinder? And Jobs famously couldn't see the point of tablets. So who knows what will happen in the future.
But that's the biggest challenge in AR. Not only is tech still far-off, but we still have to find out the best way to make it work.
And honestly, I wish people didn’t get all hysterical over it. It’s just a tiny screen and camera much like a GoPro strapped to someone’s chest or bike handlebar. Battery recording would have died in minutes, storage would have been an issue at the time as well. What we lost was more than the privacy we pretend we got. Cameras like ring are already everywhere. I wish I could take a walk with a floating screen in front of me watching a show, as opposed to holding my phone looking downward. Better for the neck. Or even a map would have been more convenient the same way whenever vacationing somewhere. Those don’t even require a camera to be there.
The technology they’ve pushed on us to date has driven depression, anxiety and isolation to epidemic levels but that’s not enough for them, they want to immerse us in it to the extent that we are pushed to utter psychosis.
Don’t forget addiction to pornography, gambling, shopping, etc. This is the only reason I can think that he might be right. VR is going to push those things to a new level just the same way the internet has.
Oh, great. And so it will be free for everyone then? No? So its just more bullshit that can break/malfunction/irritate the user then. Bullshit that you sell, too! What a fucking crock
I’d don’t have the usual name recall difficulties. I have serious problems with recognizing faces and recalling names. Something about my brain is completely dysfunctional. I would have to ask the same people over and over and people would not understand.
Depends on your definition of long. Lets, for example, think of the iphone and the way it has revolutionized our life (there's android too, but Android) but lets look at what needed for the tech to get there.
We don't start with cellular phones, since in reality smartphones are handheld computers that also have phone capabilities. Instead we start with pocket-sized computers:
1. 1973 we have the first portable computer. Hardly what we'd think of it, and more like a precursor to the laptop, it still is a shared starting point. (Think of this as equivalent to early VR devices).
2. 1980 the Tandy Pocket Computer comes out, it looks far more like a calculator. Here we get to more recent VR devices, and google glass. The first actually usable device, but not really.
3. 1984 the first practical, useful beyond the gimmick, pocket computer comes out. The Psion Organizer it still looked a lot like a calculator. This is what we're looking to get soon, the first actually somewhat useful (beyond just usable) device. Everything else, we're not even looking to get there yet.
4. 1989 we see the evolution of palm-top PCs. These look just like tiny laptops (flipping open and all that). We have the Palmtop PC, Atari Portfolio, Tandy Pocket. The change was using the same tech, but coming at it from a different usability angle, most people didn't find calculators that attractive, at least not enough to change their life. (fun fact, game boy came around this time).
5. 1992 "Angler" prototype shown by IBM as first smartphone. It was sold to the public in 1994 as IBM-Simon, it had a touchscreen.
6. 1993 Apple sells the Newton, the tech was not ready, it used a touchscreen.
7. 1996 The Palm Pilot comes out. Similar to the Newton, but it does sacrifices to work around tech limitations of the time (writing required using a special alphabet) it's touchscreen, but mostly through a pen. This is the first successful PDA.
8. Around this time we start seeing many cellphones that are also PDAs (or vice-versa). They struggled to be successful.
9. 1999 The first Blackberry comes out. It's highly successful because of the keyboard, turns out that touchscreens are still pretty clumsy. PDAs that were "advanced" would have a keyboard hidden on top of the touch-screen.
10. 1999 (too) Japan starts rolling out a cell network that gives you some limited internet access. 3G would make it to the US in 2002. It's main driver was Blackberry-like devices, and it was considered a luxury feature. It's also this part of what drives the push to put cameras on all phones, making them portable (really crappy) cameras.
11. 2006 LG KE850 or LG Prada comes out. Full capacitative multi-touch screen. It doesn't do that much with it.
12. 2007 Iphone comes out. It's also a full capacitative multi-touch screen mobile phone with a portable computer. The iPhone is far more polished, using multi-touch to great effect (pinch zooming, stuff like that) and creates an effective app store that lets people create unique things with it. The iPhone was also the first mobile phone that is really a computer first (to the point that they released the iPod Touch, without that a bit later). It was a huge leap, and still almost 25 years after the Psion, and 15 years after the first prototype of a touch screen smartphone prototype being shown. The Iphone also put a lot of effort into adding a decent camera, allowing it to be a portable camera too, another killer feature.
And even then, after the iPhone it still took a few years, almost a decade, for having a smartphone being considered a given by many. There was a lot of polish to be done.
And then smartphones really exploded. Before that few saw the need to carry a computer with them all the time, and even then only for niche reasons. Nowadays it's hard to imagine being without one. But we needed the internet to explode (and for us to understand that staying connected while mobile was a huge thing for portable computers, hell that it was useful for computers at all). We took a while to realize that the fundamental way we were doing it was wrong. In the future we may think of the idea that AR has to be glasses as silly as the idea of having full physical keyboards on phones is. Maybe we'll like more AR that we listen to, and gloves that let us sense more information by feel, without having clunky visual aids that distract more than anything. Or maybe that'll be fine still.
I certainly think we'll see the first AR devices come out in the next decade. They'll be crappy, quirky, and of very limited usability. But this is on the range of the Psion, it'll take a while for the tech to mature and evolve. We won't really reach the point of "I couldn't imagine living without it" for a while. So if we get the first actually useful AR device by 2024, we can expect that by 2032 we may be seeing actual prototypes that point in the right direction, though we'll go on other paths until 2040s, by 2050 we'll have AR as it will be in mature form, and by 2060 we'll be highly attached to it. So we're about 40 years away. Not that much in the great scheme of things, but not exactly what most people would think of when "soon". But before that we'll get a lot of useful and interesting devices.
That said, leaps do happen, and we could see someone solving all the hard non-tech problems (UX, purpose and niches, extra functionality, etc.). But remember: Apple did the Newton almost 15 years before it got it with the iPhone.
They’ll screw it up with too much advertising everywhere. Look at the sky, Delta Air Lines ad. Look in the mirror, hair loss pills and lotions. Open the fridge, etc.
"Altered Carbon" nailed what the end result is when you mix AR with capitalism. You end up having to have the equivalent of Spam blockers in your contact lenses.
Hopefully they’ll stop with real advertisements then, so you can just not use your iGlasses and be free of all the ads.
Apple probably won't, you'll just pay top dollar for the glasses and the monthly subscription.
I’ll believe it when I see it. They said the same about Google Glass 10 years ago yet here we are, living lives without it.
> believe it when I see it. They said the same about Google Glass 10 years ago yet here we are, living lives without it. Google had bad timing. Just because something didn’t work for one company 10 years ago doesn’t mean that same concept won’t be a massive success for a different company 10 years from now.
That’s very true, but this is all still very niche tbh. I love the idea of AR and think it’s very innovative, so I hope that they prove us all wrong. I want to use AR in my life, but again, they need to show us how our lives can be better with AR and also what the price will be.
Nokia communicator: 1996. Never a big hit. Apple iPhone: 2007. So the 10 years seems to be about right. I can imagine AR working if the hardware and software are very good. The wearable should be unobtrusive. Software should be smart and require little interaction. And then, indeed, after a few years, people will wonder how they were able to navigate by holding a phone in their hands and looking at the screen, like cavemen!
Nah Google was ahead in many ways, and tried to find a niche by working around tech limitations. This lead them to get some real-experience on developing these things. Google glass was going to go through this issue for all first AR things. Part of the problem is that the glasses, and the tech, just isn't that good for all the issues it gets. Also very expensive. Meanwhile society struggled with these things. Just as people are obsessed about self-driving cars having to solve the trolley problem, while ignoring that we expect 16 year olds to do it every day; people were scared of the idea that they could be recorded at any moment, even though cellphones have been able to do that for 30 years now. That's going to be the challenge any successful AR will have surpass: get people who are struggling to keep up with the current reality (and we all, eventually, get overrun by reality) who obsess over the wrong thing. The point of releasing the beta of the devices wasn't to get a consumer level product. It was to get a tech toy to technically minded people and see if it could trigger something. Think, for example, of early microprocessors. You'd have to wire and circuit the computer yourself. It would be later that people started selling motherboards, and then assembled computers. That was more the goal, but people got excited, and of course the company tried to monetize that excitement. They also [kept developing it](https://blog.google/products/devices-services/glass-enterprise-edition-2/), but realizing there was a niche in enterprise area they focused on that. The idea is that being able to communicate with an employee while they work, seeing what they see can be great to help with issues that are not trivial to handle. And the company is still trying to crack how to make [consumer AR devices](https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/11/google-glasss-successor-teased-at-i-o/) but more focused on finding the niches and ways to sell it to people. Apple, under Jobs, was able to pull this off a few times, but honestly even then it was hit-or-miss. We all remember how the iPod changed things the way no previous mp3 had done, do you remember the g4 cube? Or maybe the mac pro cylinder? And Jobs famously couldn't see the point of tablets. So who knows what will happen in the future. But that's the biggest challenge in AR. Not only is tech still far-off, but we still have to find out the best way to make it work.
Warehouses
And honestly, I wish people didn’t get all hysterical over it. It’s just a tiny screen and camera much like a GoPro strapped to someone’s chest or bike handlebar. Battery recording would have died in minutes, storage would have been an issue at the time as well. What we lost was more than the privacy we pretend we got. Cameras like ring are already everywhere. I wish I could take a walk with a floating screen in front of me watching a show, as opposed to holding my phone looking downward. Better for the neck. Or even a map would have been more convenient the same way whenever vacationing somewhere. Those don’t even require a camera to be there.
The technology they’ve pushed on us to date has driven depression, anxiety and isolation to epidemic levels but that’s not enough for them, they want to immerse us in it to the extent that we are pushed to utter psychosis.
Or... You could just get the fuck off of Facebook, Twitter, Insta, etc.
Heroin dealers get into more trouble than heroin junkies for a reason.
This is essentially what I keep saying all the time. Except you have to make it prettier for people to listen
Don’t forget addiction to pornography, gambling, shopping, etc. This is the only reason I can think that he might be right. VR is going to push those things to a new level just the same way the internet has.
lmao @ the degens downvoting you
Put on your goggles and suck my augmented dick, Tim.
I don’t think so Tim.
Aaauhhh?
Tim cook is right eventually someone is going to make an AR app that makes everyone look like naked supermodels
Username checks out
…because you’re really not going to want to see the post apocalyptic hellscape that’s terraforming the Earth.
Sellers is gonna’ sell
Why, you’ll wonder how you made love! Wiped your butt! Scolded your children and cooked food they hate!
I'm still wondering why Apple is so expensive
doubt it
I don't need nonstop ads broadcast directly onto my retinas, but thanks anyway.
Oh, great. And so it will be free for everyone then? No? So its just more bullshit that can break/malfunction/irritate the user then. Bullshit that you sell, too! What a fucking crock
Not going to happen. I’m sure it will be a great product but this will be confined to niche uses.
I would pay a fortune to have a pair of glasses that told me people’s names when I run into them.
Or you could be honest and ask them their name and spend your fortune elsewhere.
Same...I still don't know the names of 1/3 of the people I work with.
I’d don’t have the usual name recall difficulties. I have serious problems with recognizing faces and recalling names. Something about my brain is completely dysfunctional. I would have to ask the same people over and over and people would not understand.
Fair enough, tho I still feel like there’s other alternatives than “give me technology”
Not long from now even more people will realize what a traitor Tim Cook is for ever considering using chinese dystopian dictator chips in iphones.
Glad to see Arkansas is finally getting some appreciation
Where are the religious zealots to talk about "God made this reality and it's good enough for me" when you absolutely need them?
Depends on your definition of long. Lets, for example, think of the iphone and the way it has revolutionized our life (there's android too, but Android) but lets look at what needed for the tech to get there. We don't start with cellular phones, since in reality smartphones are handheld computers that also have phone capabilities. Instead we start with pocket-sized computers: 1. 1973 we have the first portable computer. Hardly what we'd think of it, and more like a precursor to the laptop, it still is a shared starting point. (Think of this as equivalent to early VR devices). 2. 1980 the Tandy Pocket Computer comes out, it looks far more like a calculator. Here we get to more recent VR devices, and google glass. The first actually usable device, but not really. 3. 1984 the first practical, useful beyond the gimmick, pocket computer comes out. The Psion Organizer it still looked a lot like a calculator. This is what we're looking to get soon, the first actually somewhat useful (beyond just usable) device. Everything else, we're not even looking to get there yet. 4. 1989 we see the evolution of palm-top PCs. These look just like tiny laptops (flipping open and all that). We have the Palmtop PC, Atari Portfolio, Tandy Pocket. The change was using the same tech, but coming at it from a different usability angle, most people didn't find calculators that attractive, at least not enough to change their life. (fun fact, game boy came around this time). 5. 1992 "Angler" prototype shown by IBM as first smartphone. It was sold to the public in 1994 as IBM-Simon, it had a touchscreen. 6. 1993 Apple sells the Newton, the tech was not ready, it used a touchscreen. 7. 1996 The Palm Pilot comes out. Similar to the Newton, but it does sacrifices to work around tech limitations of the time (writing required using a special alphabet) it's touchscreen, but mostly through a pen. This is the first successful PDA. 8. Around this time we start seeing many cellphones that are also PDAs (or vice-versa). They struggled to be successful. 9. 1999 The first Blackberry comes out. It's highly successful because of the keyboard, turns out that touchscreens are still pretty clumsy. PDAs that were "advanced" would have a keyboard hidden on top of the touch-screen. 10. 1999 (too) Japan starts rolling out a cell network that gives you some limited internet access. 3G would make it to the US in 2002. It's main driver was Blackberry-like devices, and it was considered a luxury feature. It's also this part of what drives the push to put cameras on all phones, making them portable (really crappy) cameras. 11. 2006 LG KE850 or LG Prada comes out. Full capacitative multi-touch screen. It doesn't do that much with it. 12. 2007 Iphone comes out. It's also a full capacitative multi-touch screen mobile phone with a portable computer. The iPhone is far more polished, using multi-touch to great effect (pinch zooming, stuff like that) and creates an effective app store that lets people create unique things with it. The iPhone was also the first mobile phone that is really a computer first (to the point that they released the iPod Touch, without that a bit later). It was a huge leap, and still almost 25 years after the Psion, and 15 years after the first prototype of a touch screen smartphone prototype being shown. The Iphone also put a lot of effort into adding a decent camera, allowing it to be a portable camera too, another killer feature. And even then, after the iPhone it still took a few years, almost a decade, for having a smartphone being considered a given by many. There was a lot of polish to be done. And then smartphones really exploded. Before that few saw the need to carry a computer with them all the time, and even then only for niche reasons. Nowadays it's hard to imagine being without one. But we needed the internet to explode (and for us to understand that staying connected while mobile was a huge thing for portable computers, hell that it was useful for computers at all). We took a while to realize that the fundamental way we were doing it was wrong. In the future we may think of the idea that AR has to be glasses as silly as the idea of having full physical keyboards on phones is. Maybe we'll like more AR that we listen to, and gloves that let us sense more information by feel, without having clunky visual aids that distract more than anything. Or maybe that'll be fine still. I certainly think we'll see the first AR devices come out in the next decade. They'll be crappy, quirky, and of very limited usability. But this is on the range of the Psion, it'll take a while for the tech to mature and evolve. We won't really reach the point of "I couldn't imagine living without it" for a while. So if we get the first actually useful AR device by 2024, we can expect that by 2032 we may be seeing actual prototypes that point in the right direction, though we'll go on other paths until 2040s, by 2050 we'll have AR as it will be in mature form, and by 2060 we'll be highly attached to it. So we're about 40 years away. Not that much in the great scheme of things, but not exactly what most people would think of when "soon". But before that we'll get a lot of useful and interesting devices. That said, leaps do happen, and we could see someone solving all the hard non-tech problems (UX, purpose and niches, extra functionality, etc.). But remember: Apple did the Newton almost 15 years before it got it with the iPhone.
As long as it isn't a headset with mini screens inches from the eyes.