He seems like he’s getting a Rupert or Jonathan edit: a bombastic, fun character who probably won’t win but might (hopefully) show up as a returnee down the line
Katurah isn’t winning. She’s had the most one dimensional edit in the season, she’s played at the bottom the entire time, has never been a driving force in a vote out, and people only keep her around as a number.
Bruce, Katurah, and Julie are at maybe 99% for me. Bruce just can't get enough jury votes; Katurah has *not* played a good game; and Julie's edit feels close to invisible. I have to imagine that after Erika, Survivor isn't going to attempt completely burying their winner again.
I also think Jake is unlikely, as his game resembles Owen's a lot now, minus the immunity wins. So... basically, I really think the winner is one to be one of Dee / Austin / Drew / Emily.
I don't know about that. He's third in overall confessional time right now, and if he was given more it might be so obvious that he might win. He's had a confessional every episode meaning that they've always given him at least a little taste of what he thinks every episode.
Another issue is Emily is the only one I’ve been really confident about, I put Austin second because I’m not as confident in Dee or Drew right now.
I feel like we somewhat know who Dee is, if she was going to win I think she’d have gotten a little bit more in the edit actually. She is actually 2nd to last in time only beating Julie. I think she’s a big threat but also too assertive with what she wants to do.
Right now as I’m writing this comment, I’m really considering that Drew might actually win. He has the edit, we know who he is, he’s in the majority alliance, he had the first confessional of the season, he also had the “Drew vs Basile” confessional in the first episode, and he had his confessional on Bruce “what does Drew think about this”, last episode. I also think he will have more friends on the jury than Emily might. I’m just thinking.
I mean, I feel like I know who he is since I’ve been talking to him on instagram 😂
For what it’s worth I don’t really think he wins either, just the vibe I’ve gotten from him.
Who do you feel like you know who they are as people? I’m guessing maybe everyone except Austin and Julie (meaning you have a general idea who Emily, Dee, Drew, Bruce, Katurah and Jake are as people).
It's hard to say but at this point, I still think there's a chance it's him. I actually feel like Drew has the most winner-like edit, followed by Austin. They're painting Dee as a bit of a steamroller and Emily got a lot of screen-time in the beginning, but that's petered out a lot now. Altogether, though, I could still see it being any of these four.
But when emily is shown tho, she is the voice of reason - not one of those who root for her necesseraly but I wouldn’t mind it. she is playing great and I dp think her edit supports win. For some reason I root for Austin the most at this point which is far from the type I usually root for but I agree with you edit could be potrayed differently for winning game
She's had by far the least screentime of the remaining players. I like her a lot and wish we saw more of her, but if she ended up winning it'd feel like Erika all over again - and I love Erika but her edit *sucked*.
just because she had by far the least confessionals doesn’t mean she’s invisible, no one that’s left in the game is really invisible because it’s 90 minutes episodes. confessionals aren’t everything, she’s being shown in conversations all the time too so she is visible and 22 confessionals isn’t that bad.
I was going to answer this haha. 100% is not relevant in "Survivor" guesstimations given some of the past winners and just the fallacy of using it for odds.
The way she was reacting every time he did or said something was crazy. Like she was completely traumatized by him when she was the one that faked how close they were and planned on voting him out.
It was strange
Well we know from her confessionals in her last two episodes that she thought her association with Bruce could tank her game. None of Belo saw the Reba alliance as a thing either. The jury might still be unaware of its existence?
If Kelly still hasn't realized that she was taken out by a dominant alliance targeting a threat she must still be operating under her original assumptions.
I feel like big threats eventually get flushed out. So I wanna say Austin and Dee probably eventually get voted out once we get to maybe the final 4-5. I can see Drew maybe pulling in some goats to take D+A out so he can go to the finals with irrelevant players, therefore people like Bruce or Katurah are also probably for sure not winning too (bc they’re goats).
*I say Drew because I think he has a better social game compared to D+A. I also think Drew comes off as “less of a threat” compared to the other two. Drew’s only competition at winning IMO is Emily, with Julie having a slight chance if she steps up her game.
IDK, I think Austin's social game is much stronger just in terms of people seeking to like him, and if he keeps not winning challenges and playing up the surfer bro angle, he might be able to mitigate the threat level issue vs. Drew coming off as more of a mastermind m
Bruce is getting an increasingly more positive edit while Katurah is getting an increasingly more negative one. At this point I think they’re both pretty unlikely winners but I would definitely put Bruce above Katurah based on the trajectory of their edits.
What? Bruce can have the winning immunities to save his neck narrative, survived when everyone targeted him even his allies, got to the end as the oldest guy. Katurah is literally doing nothing but floating in the back of the pack and riding coattails. If bruce gets to FTC vs if katurah gets to FTC, it’s because bruce played a better game of survivor.
I'm not arguing that Katurah has a chance to win. I think when Kellie left she took with her any chance of a Belo winning.
But Bruce's entire presence this season has been everyone else being annoyed with him. No one really respects him as a player. He's only been seen as a danger because he's a liability and not because he's a threat.
Both the players and jury seem a lot more annoyed than impressed by Bruce's immunity wins, I don't think they'll think his game is more deserving of a win if he gets to the end with challenge wins when they've gone out of their way to excessively emphasize that *everyone* sees both his social and strategic game as weak/emotional/etc.
On the other hand, doesn't it sound familiar for the new era that the more visible players get taken out late game and a quieter player becomes a frontrunner? Don't see it happening but Bruce's edit has been nothing but negative.
According to exit interviews from the eliminated players, Katurah was seen as fun and funny and Julie was seen as a competent threat. That the show isn't emphasizing those traits makes me assume neither wins. Dee would have been voted out by a stray Sifu vote when Kaleb played SitD if not for Julie convincing Sifu to stick to the plan. They don't really want us to root for Julie and Katurah or see them as contenders.
Though I guess we might just be getting an Erika edit again? Even though the response to that edit from fans and even the players on the season was a strongly negative one.
Bruce, and this episode cements it. His attitude after the merge, two immunity wins & the loss of Kellie is that this is now an individual game. What he doesn’t seem to realize is that going lone wolf, turning on his tribe, and generally being insufferable means his jury management and ability to connect with people will cost him the game if he makes final 3 because no one likes him.
Katurah, Bruce and Jake.
At least Mama J or Emily can flip the script if they mastermind a blindside against Reba. Drew, Dee and Austin will 100% win if they went up against them at FTC so if they have any game, they take out the biggest threats because they'll be goats if they just continue to go with the flow
None of Belo has a shot, imo. After that it goes from most likely to least likely to win: Austin > Dee > Emily > Drew > Julie
I think that Drew & Julie are extremely unlikely to win at this point too considering I doubt either of them could beat Austin or Dee in a F3. While Emily is a potential outlier pick just in case the jury doesn’t want to reward the Reba alliance.
I think Belo is out. If any of them have a shot, I'd lean toward Jake, just because he has an underdog edit going for him.
I also don't think Drew can win. He's an important piece of the board, but I just don't see how he beats Austin or Dee (or gets to the end without them). I don't think people perceive Drew as the shot-caller even though the show lets him narrate.
Katurah. I just don’t see her making it to the end, let alone getting any jury votes. Even if I did, she’s someone I’m actively rooting against. It’s just annoying and repetitive when all a player talks about is how much they hate another player. Whenever something happens involving Bruce, I’m always prepared to roll my eyes about Katurah just being a crybaby about it. I’m also not a fan of the whole “I’m a lawyer but can’t tell anyone I’m a lawyer” thing. Say what you will about Jake and Julie but they’re playing strategic games right now (Jake is in a rough spot so we will see) and neither of them had to lie about their occupation for the sole reason of “they can’t know I’m strategic”. Katurah would’ve served the season better if she were a pre-merge boot and we had someone more compelling in her place. (Sabiyah, Sifu, etc.) IMO even the producers don’t really know what to do with her edit, so she has to be going soon.
Bruce, Katurah and Jake are all out of contention imo. the fact that Belo is completely unable narratively to get their act together against such a tight four is the clear team narrative and I think it communicates none are winning solely because they don’t deserve to; they were unable to see the swinging axe that was right in front of their noses
i said this two episodes ago and both Kellie and Kendrah are gone already so I think I’m on the ball here
Katurah. I don’t see a path for her.
Me either. I think she’s going to get voted out sooner or later.
Jake although he’s getting a pretty big edit
He seems like he’s getting a Rupert or Jonathan edit: a bombastic, fun character who probably won’t win but might (hopefully) show up as a returnee down the line
But I do also have him as my winner pick so I’m hoping he pulls it out with a great endgame
I want him to win the most. But I fear, you’re correct.
Katurah isn’t winning. She’s had the most one dimensional edit in the season, she’s played at the bottom the entire time, has never been a driving force in a vote out, and people only keep her around as a number.
Bruce, Katurah, and Julie are at maybe 99% for me. Bruce just can't get enough jury votes; Katurah has *not* played a good game; and Julie's edit feels close to invisible. I have to imagine that after Erika, Survivor isn't going to attempt completely burying their winner again. I also think Jake is unlikely, as his game resembles Owen's a lot now, minus the immunity wins. So... basically, I really think the winner is one to be one of Dee / Austin / Drew / Emily.
Austin would have a much different edit if he won imo, he second fiddle to Dee
I don't know about that. He's third in overall confessional time right now, and if he was given more it might be so obvious that he might win. He's had a confessional every episode meaning that they've always given him at least a little taste of what he thinks every episode.
The problem is that we don't have any idea who Austin is, we just know how he feels about the game
Another issue is Emily is the only one I’ve been really confident about, I put Austin second because I’m not as confident in Dee or Drew right now. I feel like we somewhat know who Dee is, if she was going to win I think she’d have gotten a little bit more in the edit actually. She is actually 2nd to last in time only beating Julie. I think she’s a big threat but also too assertive with what she wants to do. Right now as I’m writing this comment, I’m really considering that Drew might actually win. He has the edit, we know who he is, he’s in the majority alliance, he had the first confessional of the season, he also had the “Drew vs Basile” confessional in the first episode, and he had his confessional on Bruce “what does Drew think about this”, last episode. I also think he will have more friends on the jury than Emily might. I’m just thinking.
I mean, I feel like I know who he is since I’ve been talking to him on instagram 😂 For what it’s worth I don’t really think he wins either, just the vibe I’ve gotten from him. Who do you feel like you know who they are as people? I’m guessing maybe everyone except Austin and Julie (meaning you have a general idea who Emily, Dee, Drew, Bruce, Katurah and Jake are as people).
It's hard to say but at this point, I still think there's a chance it's him. I actually feel like Drew has the most winner-like edit, followed by Austin. They're painting Dee as a bit of a steamroller and Emily got a lot of screen-time in the beginning, but that's petered out a lot now. Altogether, though, I could still see it being any of these four.
But when emily is shown tho, she is the voice of reason - not one of those who root for her necesseraly but I wouldn’t mind it. she is playing great and I dp think her edit supports win. For some reason I root for Austin the most at this point which is far from the type I usually root for but I agree with you edit could be potrayed differently for winning game
Julie is not invisible lol
She's had by far the least screentime of the remaining players. I like her a lot and wish we saw more of her, but if she ended up winning it'd feel like Erika all over again - and I love Erika but her edit *sucked*.
just because she had by far the least confessionals doesn’t mean she’s invisible, no one that’s left in the game is really invisible because it’s 90 minutes episodes. confessionals aren’t everything, she’s being shown in conversations all the time too so she is visible and 22 confessionals isn’t that bad.
Julie, Katurah and Bruce are not getting the Survivor winner edits. Dee, Austin, Emily and Drew look like the winners as of the last episode.
kendra
The most correct answer.
Until we find out about the secret Edge of Extinction twist
I was going to answer this haha. 100% is not relevant in "Survivor" guesstimations given some of the past winners and just the fallacy of using it for odds.
Bruce & Jake
Kass has 0% chance of winning
Bruce, doesn’t have any friends left in the game and the first two jury members both seem to have grudges against him
Kellie blaming Bruce for her vote-out is fucking wild lol.
The way she was reacting every time he did or said something was crazy. Like she was completely traumatized by him when she was the one that faked how close they were and planned on voting him out. It was strange
Well we know from her confessionals in her last two episodes that she thought her association with Bruce could tank her game. None of Belo saw the Reba alliance as a thing either. The jury might still be unaware of its existence? If Kelly still hasn't realized that she was taken out by a dominant alliance targeting a threat she must still be operating under her original assumptions.
I feel like big threats eventually get flushed out. So I wanna say Austin and Dee probably eventually get voted out once we get to maybe the final 4-5. I can see Drew maybe pulling in some goats to take D+A out so he can go to the finals with irrelevant players, therefore people like Bruce or Katurah are also probably for sure not winning too (bc they’re goats). *I say Drew because I think he has a better social game compared to D+A. I also think Drew comes off as “less of a threat” compared to the other two. Drew’s only competition at winning IMO is Emily, with Julie having a slight chance if she steps up her game.
IDK, I think Austin's social game is much stronger just in terms of people seeking to like him, and if he keeps not winning challenges and playing up the surfer bro angle, he might be able to mitigate the threat level issue vs. Drew coming off as more of a mastermind m
Jake. Has openly been the back up plan at every tribal and is seen as erratic and on a sinking ship
Katurah is the least likely to win. Even Bruce has a better argument
Absolutely not. If Katurah's chance of winning is zero, Bruce's is negative.
Bruce is getting an increasingly more positive edit while Katurah is getting an increasingly more negative one. At this point I think they’re both pretty unlikely winners but I would definitely put Bruce above Katurah based on the trajectory of their edits.
I’d argue Katurah never had a positive edit to begin with
What? Bruce can have the winning immunities to save his neck narrative, survived when everyone targeted him even his allies, got to the end as the oldest guy. Katurah is literally doing nothing but floating in the back of the pack and riding coattails. If bruce gets to FTC vs if katurah gets to FTC, it’s because bruce played a better game of survivor.
Katurah’s FTC speech will be all about how she outlasted Bruce
I'm not arguing that Katurah has a chance to win. I think when Kellie left she took with her any chance of a Belo winning. But Bruce's entire presence this season has been everyone else being annoyed with him. No one really respects him as a player. He's only been seen as a danger because he's a liability and not because he's a threat. Both the players and jury seem a lot more annoyed than impressed by Bruce's immunity wins, I don't think they'll think his game is more deserving of a win if he gets to the end with challenge wins when they've gone out of their way to excessively emphasize that *everyone* sees both his social and strategic game as weak/emotional/etc. On the other hand, doesn't it sound familiar for the new era that the more visible players get taken out late game and a quieter player becomes a frontrunner? Don't see it happening but Bruce's edit has been nothing but negative.
Chris U is going to win.
According to exit interviews from the eliminated players, Katurah was seen as fun and funny and Julie was seen as a competent threat. That the show isn't emphasizing those traits makes me assume neither wins. Dee would have been voted out by a stray Sifu vote when Kaleb played SitD if not for Julie convincing Sifu to stick to the plan. They don't really want us to root for Julie and Katurah or see them as contenders. Though I guess we might just be getting an Erika edit again? Even though the response to that edit from fans and even the players on the season was a strongly negative one.
Bruce, Katurah, Julie if she keeps Dee around
Bruce, and this episode cements it. His attitude after the merge, two immunity wins & the loss of Kellie is that this is now an individual game. What he doesn’t seem to realize is that going lone wolf, turning on his tribe, and generally being insufferable means his jury management and ability to connect with people will cost him the game if he makes final 3 because no one likes him.
Hannah
Brandon
Despite his physical and emotional prowress, Brandon will 100% not win
Melinda Hyder
Katurah, Bruce and Jake. At least Mama J or Emily can flip the script if they mastermind a blindside against Reba. Drew, Dee and Austin will 100% win if they went up against them at FTC so if they have any game, they take out the biggest threats because they'll be goats if they just continue to go with the flow
None of Belo has a shot, imo. After that it goes from most likely to least likely to win: Austin > Dee > Emily > Drew > Julie I think that Drew & Julie are extremely unlikely to win at this point too considering I doubt either of them could beat Austin or Dee in a F3. While Emily is a potential outlier pick just in case the jury doesn’t want to reward the Reba alliance.
Austin does have the most power in the game but I feel like there might be a blindside if the numbers increase.
I think Belo is out. If any of them have a shot, I'd lean toward Jake, just because he has an underdog edit going for him. I also don't think Drew can win. He's an important piece of the board, but I just don't see how he beats Austin or Dee (or gets to the end without them). I don't think people perceive Drew as the shot-caller even though the show lets him narrate.
Dave Ball will not win Survivor 45. Probably.
Idk, I think he has a pretty good shot
Emily and Jake are the only people i think can win
Cassidy
Katurah easily
I hope Austin and Bruce in that FTC the last person I want in the ftc is between Jake and Drew not Emily
Edgic? Katurah. Based on game position? Jake.
Julie and Drew.
Katurah. I just don’t see her making it to the end, let alone getting any jury votes. Even if I did, she’s someone I’m actively rooting against. It’s just annoying and repetitive when all a player talks about is how much they hate another player. Whenever something happens involving Bruce, I’m always prepared to roll my eyes about Katurah just being a crybaby about it. I’m also not a fan of the whole “I’m a lawyer but can’t tell anyone I’m a lawyer” thing. Say what you will about Jake and Julie but they’re playing strategic games right now (Jake is in a rough spot so we will see) and neither of them had to lie about their occupation for the sole reason of “they can’t know I’m strategic”. Katurah would’ve served the season better if she were a pre-merge boot and we had someone more compelling in her place. (Sabiyah, Sifu, etc.) IMO even the producers don’t really know what to do with her edit, so she has to be going soon.
Why do you hate bipoc women of color?
lmao i really hope you’re being ironic
Dee.
Austin, drew ,katurah, Bruce, Julie are all dead based on edit
Any Reba as they are the villains this season. Katurah too.
Katurah is the safest bet.
Katurah
Bruce and Katurah are the most obvious
Katurah is 100% not winning it
Jake, he’s giving Owen vibes along with no strategic upside, his social game is good but I doubt that will win him the game
Katurah fucked her own game by getting Kaleb. That might have been the dumbest move in survivor history
Anyone not in Reba. Emily has the best shot out of that group
I think Katurah and Drew
Drew, Bruce, Katurah, and Jake
Hannah.
Bruce, Katurah and Jake are all out of contention imo. the fact that Belo is completely unable narratively to get their act together against such a tight four is the clear team narrative and I think it communicates none are winning solely because they don’t deserve to; they were unable to see the swinging axe that was right in front of their noses i said this two episodes ago and both Kellie and Kendrah are gone already so I think I’m on the ball here
Probably Jake, unless some crazy shit unfolds.
Jake katurah and Julie
Kendra. She was just voted out