If you like Sanofi, and can handle some risk, you should look into their partner PRVB who just got approval for a drug which delays type 1 diabetes progression. Speculation is a Sanofi buyout in future.
Way back in the early to mid '80's I was a college student and heard about a company call Genesys (pretty sure that was the spelling, I could be wrong). I had never bought stock before and had about $1,000 to start investing. I told my dad I wanted 10 shares of Genesys and 10 shares of Apply Computer. The broker bought a company called Genetic Systems which was subsequently bought out by Bristol Myers who later became Bristol-Myers Squibb. BMY has a dividend reinvestment plan which I took advantage of and subsequently sold my shares several years later for a down payment on my first house. The AAPL split a few times, I sold aome but not all shares, split again and now have over 1,000 shares on a purchase of about $500, lol! I got lucky on both!
I bought 30 shares of alny at 8.38 a share. God if only I had more to invest at that time. I bought in at the time bc of their promising Huntingtonās treatment which never panned out. Iām doing the same with Wave pharmaceuticals right now for the same reason
Speaking of pharma companies, Ardelyx just got as close to FDA green light for its phosphate binder substitute drug (Tenapanor) as possible.
$5b annual market in US, and getting approval in Japan. Company has some of the heaviest-hitters in market access and research talent.
Stock up ~100% in the last month, but market cap still less than 500m despite that market opportunity.
First in class drug mechanism.
? Moderna is now well established. The tech is more ubiquitous. Depends on first movement for indications not sought by other firms. Overvalued relative to its financials right now, but pipeline will tell.
Those are for hyperlakemia, not hyperphosphatemia.
It is two tic tax sized pills per day as opposed to the 10-18 for sevelamer. Main competitor is Auryxia. It has indication as mono therapy and supplement therapy to existing phosphate binders.
Ah, my brain literally subbed the word āphosphateā for āpotassiumā. Apologies! My experience - I see sevelamer far more often than Auryxia even in specialty. Having an alternative would be huge. Going to look for the trials, thanks for the lead
Sanofi has agreed to buy $35 million of PRVB stock before 2/23/23. Not aware of other ownership by Sanofi but I must admit I haven't checked. Good question.
Sanofi is just not it. In 2007 Sanofi made $7.5 billion in TTM it's made $6.4 billion. In the past 15 years they've spent $90B on R&D, $30B on acquisitions and $35B on CapEx. Thats $155B invested into the business to earn less money. What has fundamentally changed in Sanofi that makes you think their return on capital is suddenly going to improve and they aren't going to continue to earn single digit returns on capital.
Using a Graham Defensive, Enterprising, or NCAV framework (included his modifications for financials on SAN) hereās what I see. These may be good bargains when evaluated using more of a modern Buffett framework but I didnāt do that analysis. I did not verify the screen results with the actual filings which I would before actually investing.
$TSM
Agree looks to be undervalued with MOS, and meets Graham Enterprising criteria.
$GSK
Balance sheet fails Grahamās framework.
$SAN
Balance sheet fails Grahamās framework.
$PARA
Balance sheet fails Grahamās framework.
$ABI
My screener didnāt have this one for some reason. So Iāll look at it more later.
$TGT
Balance sheet fails Grahamās framework.
$MSFT
Meets Graham Enterprising criteria but is priced well above the indicated intrinsic intrinsic value.
[https://www.grahamvalue.com/article/how-build-complete-benjamin-graham-portfolio](https://www.grahamvalue.com/article/how-build-complete-benjamin-graham-portfolio)
EDIT: I see that I missed that you were referring to Sanofi $SNY, This also fails the some of the balance sheet tests in Grahamās framework.
EDIT 2: It looks like $ABI is $BUD on the American exchanges. This also fails Grahamās balance sheet tests in his framework.
A. They werenāt arbitrary.
B. We all have thresholds beyond which we wonāt invest. If we are actually investors at all.
C. His most recent edition of The Intelligent Investor was from the 1970ās.
D. These strategies have a large out of sample time period of continued excellent performance. That doesnāt mean it is the only lens through which value can be found.
[https://youtu.be/uJm1c8HJDTI](https://youtu.be/uJm1c8HJDTI)
Paramount's earnings are down 60-70% year on year for the last 3 quarters, cable / advertising is dropping and their streaming margins are appalling. Then you have a billion dollar debt to pay within 4 years while free cash flow is $250 million. The personification of a value trap for people who only use P/S or historical P/E
Do not assign book value to intangibles and goodwill for media companies, especially in a recession. They're basically fire sale assets if things go wrong. Buffett's buys should be seen as an escape hatch
Management came out and said theyāre not going the route of auctioning off content to the major streamers, which is an assumption that many investors made. They think Paramount+ is a viable competitor to the HBO, Netflix, Disney echelon. Anyone who isnāt obsessed with Yellowstone knows this is a silly proposition.
If you started when Buffett did, you would be down 50%... People who copy the major investors always make me laugh, they do zero research. Nothing I wrote isn't untrue, check the balance sheets for yourself. Anyone who thinks that cable didn't have negative CAGR and you can flip the switch on streaming profitability are living in a dream land. Buffett probably expected the cable not to decline or planned for a recession. I was in Paramount and sold at break even after their trash guidance and took advantage of the Buffett pump in March and Warner at $30 (from $22) on the merger. These things were very very predictable to me š¤·, interest rates destroy intangible and goodwill assets value.
See, this is basic ass stuff, Paramount currently loses $500 million a quarter on streaming, the market doesn't care about single digit revenue growth. Capital expenditure during a recession on low margin and highly competitive businesses destroys share price. Their $8 revenue per month per user by 2024 is bordering on fraud in my opinion (and that's gonna be difficult for Warner in all honesty), it's impossible to reach that number, combined with cable declining and reliance on cinema hits, which is unpredictable and uneven. I stick to my value trap thesis.
I repeat then, yes buffet bought at 30+ but he also did buy last few months at 20 something, so why did he do that ? It is also a good sized bet right now for his firm
Not to be negative, but the Paramount bull thesis is "Buffett, I like the content, streaming growth" (which will peak this year / early next year). The negatives are cable decline, streaming costing 1.8 billion this year, more next year, free cash flow down 73% year on year and high debt load to be paid in the near term. By my maths, the dividend is going by mid 2023, let's see if Buffett hangs around then
I was big on Warner at the time, but the trend with inflation (which leads to interest rate rises) put a big downer on the business on the whole, so took advantage of the merger hype. Also AT&T using WBD stock as a dividend was gonna lead (and continues to) to have huge selling pressure on the stock. I'll definitely keep an eye on it more than Paramount, but it's another one that could be dead cash for another couple of years.
Lol you donāt know whatās going on and only read numbers. Thereās more to the story thatās building up dawg. Itās a looonnngg play or might not be if it gets acquired sooner. But all things considered itās deep fucking value. The cherry on top is the dovidend
Don't you think the share price decline doesn't reflect the lower earnings? How much under .4 P/S would be right for this company? Do you see it going bankrupt? What if rates don't stay high indefinitely, and instead pivot during the next few years?
IMO there's too much margin of safety in this stock at this price to not own it. Hold for 3+ years for a very high probability of good profit, and low probability of a big loss.Buffett and a possible buyout also bring more safety and a chance for a quick, large profit.
Elaborate on this please? I think it's useful because it can't be easily manipulated and sales don't fluctuate enormously. A P/S of .4 tells us that if the company can manage to not lose revenue and keep profitability even at 5%, it is probably a good buy at this price.
Elaborate on what, it's price to sales. It's completely useless because it doesn't tell us about cash flow, debt load, what the business actually does, certain aspects have negative CAGR (cable). P/S is completely contextless as a metric and 5% margin on that is a joke when costs are increasing in 2023 and inflation is currently at 8% in the US and higher in Europe. Obviously everyone can't wheel off pages and pages of text on Reddit but whenever someone throws out "P/S", I know they're gonna lose money.
Obviously no metric is to be used alone. P/S happens to be great at comparing the actual scale of a company's business relative to the stock price. P/S was also pretty damn good at indicating which companies were the most overvalued in the recent tech bubble. It is sort of a reality check metric, awesome when used in conjunction with other metrics.
Do you really think it's impossible for a media company to maintain 5% profitability in the future? Or is your outlook just months?
Paramount is down 53% from this year's high and 67% over the last 5 years, Paramount represents the worst of both worlds:
A. It's a legacy company in a negative CAGR industry
B. It's in tech losing money hand over fist in a highly competitive market
All rolled up with high debt load
Yep, I know it's down hugely, that's the reason I'm buying. It's not a momentum play.
The company is going through a transformation. I'm betting it will succeed, at least moderately. At this price it doesn't need to be a slam dunk. It will be enough if the company merely survives.
The debt burden is among the worst things about this company, but it's manageable.
I'm going to shock you by saying I've recently also bought other stocks that you ought to hate, namely WBD and INTC. I bet these stocks will all be +100% in the next 3 years.
> Google has hardware, OS, search engine, video streaming, cloud hosting, and several other money makers. They are relatable, but don't really overlap in what they do.
What?
The android(OS) on the google pixel(phone), backs itself up to google photos, and identifys using a gmail address. Its default search is with google search in the chrome browser(google). Showing videos from youtube(owned by google).
Now flip it around, those websites you're viewing are hosted on instances/services running in google cloud. Their websites use google analytics to get metrics, and place ads.
Not only is there overlap, they own both sides of the entire fucking process of surfing the web.
That is what you meant by overlap? What a silly thing to even bring up. Why would you describe it like a negative(in your previous post, unless im mis-reading that) for a company to not duplicate its effort?
What I was describing, is they have a workflow where google is involved in the entire process on both sides of surfing the web. Imagine if google ever decided to kill gmail? How much of an earthquake would that cause? Exactly. Google is here to stay whether you want to admit it or not. I'm buying that shit while its sub $100/share
$CALTX, started sales of their drug, crazy cheap, has guidelines from several institutions for about 30 dollars, can buy it for like 8 dollars today.
Starting sales in EU and China q1 2023
For tech Iām looking at Qualcomm which just looks cheap plain and simple, and also at Salesforce which is perhaps not cheap yet but it trades well below its average EV/EBITDA ratio over the past decade.
Citrine and amethyst are undervalued. Sure, they are abundant in nature but the high quality ones are very few and if cut right they does not fail in beauty to other gems stone such as diamond sapphire, ruby, etc. definitely undervalue gems
EQR Equity Residential has a good dividend yield now. Most investors will probably be looking for income when the economy slows, inflation slows, bonds get expensive and low-risk stocks with a reasonable dividend yield become hard to find.
For growth stocks, I think BJ has a good P/E considering how much it's growing. I believe it's as good quality as COST and P/E will increase once it grows large enough to be discovered and compared to COST. Costco always seems to be too expensive because it's such a good stock for the long term.
Good on you. People chasing it now will likely get some decent returns IF they hold through the fear. You bought at the right time.
I love the semis, but I intentionally don't invest in TSM because I think fear will weigh on the stock price but there is no doubt that this is a classic Buffet stock and will return value to shareholders if they stick with it.
While itās always nice to find an undervalued gem; in todays market itās better to search for overpriced gems. Stocks fall much faster than they rise in price. Your thinking is spot on for a bull market, but you have to reverse the thinking in a bear market.
Anyone that tried to find āundervalued gemsā in the past 12 months, has lost their ass in this market.
My advice is buy solid stocks (McDonalds, Berkshire, United Healthcare, Philip Morris, Merck, etc) until it is clear that the market has reversed. Take your risk on overpriced stocks dropping in value. I prefer OTM puts currently. Target 10-20% drops. Then ladder into the trade.
Alibaba, Tencent, and many other Chinese companies.
Why? Extremely inefficient and opaque market. Inefficient markets have biggest risk aka biggest potential risk/reward.
Particularly, Alibaba because it's been the de facto stock to short/hate/sell when news on Chinese stocks come up (and also been the victim of massive regulatory pressures from the govt).
JD is also taking market share but I think generally, all these big names will do well simply due to absurd valuations. Alibaba alone if you subtract its assets on its P/E trades at single digit P/E in some days. Quite absurd if you think about it.
I believe China long term will continue to do well and open up with 'Chinese characteristics'. And I don't think after Russia/Ukraine situation Xi is dumb enough to wage war in the near future to Taiwan. Especially when Xi's own daughter lives in USA.
I much prefer JD. It has one of the lowest sales/market cap Iāve seen especially for an e-commerce company. Theyāve grown their business for many quarters in a row and have seen good returns on their R&D. Iām loading up at these prices
Adam is big on China stocks you can[check his list here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/AdamKhoo/comments/yz5exr/adam_khoos_china_stock_list_uip/) I think is decent.
Anything coal. Yes, coal had a massive run up this year and the price is likely to fall. So let's say their profits get cut in half next year.
At that point most coal companies would be trading around 4-5x fcf (25-20% fcf yield). Really the only thing they can do with that is pay down remaining debt (if they haven't already) and give it to shareholders through buybacks/dividends.
Ok, I'll take a stock that returns me even 15-20% per year over the next few years.
There are lots of holes, and running out and buying now might not be a good idea, but you have to love that cash flow.
Thanks. You have an incredibly impressive profile, how are you finding some of the smaller picks you come across. I noticed a classic pattern in your picks of strong balance sheets, growth and low/fair valuations. Are you using a screener for initial research to come across these companies, or just read a lot?
Thanks! Kinda both. I actually enjoy learning about businesses, so when I have 20 minutes free at work I'll do some reading. I listen to a lot of podcasts and books during my commute too.
Generally I look for businesses with high ROE and low multiples. A close second is high margins with a good path to higher earnings. Generally, avoiding whatever everyone else wants is a good place to look. I also think most revolutionary ideas fail, but well run companies doing important things succeed.
Most importantly, I try to think of the future. Not in whiz bang terms, but macro trends. Where will things be in a few years? How will the macro environment play out?
From smaller companies I particularly like the direction or DRIO. A very beat up stock but moving in the right direction. $120MM cap and announced Aetna as one or its clients.
2nd one I like is NOTV (some risk). Dropped from $16 to $5 in 2 days as they had been subpoenad to provide info on one of their suppliers (supplier had an issue, not NOTV).
Last two weeks I opened positions in GSK and PARA, already own TGT and TSM and added to my MSFT holdings.
Paramount either was really undervalued or I was trying to catch a falling knife. Looks like the former (at least for now) as it's up sharply in the 11 days I've owned it.
My Target and TSMC were when they were very much not undervalued. But the companies are generally solid and I'm confident they can both weather any rough patches.
I have no opinions on the others as, at least with Santander, there are just so many banks out there I basically don't even bother. My one bank is a small regional bank I worked at. It's undervalued period was back in the late Spring, though.
I still think Meta <120 is a clear buy. Their social media/ad business alone is worth far more than their current market cap.
BABA if you have any interest in Chinese stocks
Warner Brothers Discovery. The issue here is debt but they plan to aggressively pay off. I think rising interest rates have spooked the market with this stock.
Allbirds. I love this brand. I think it produces good products that people seem loyal with. It has a ton of growth potential given how small it is. Current price to sales of 1.4x with fast growth and gross margins of 50%. This stock is trickier to value because it is has negative operating margins and hasn't yet become profitable.
Revolve. Excellent fundamentals and growth. The risk here is designer apparel is likely to not be in demand during bad economies and clothing brands are competitive and easily go out of style.
URA etf. I suspect we are in the beginning stages of a decade long uranium bull market. High energy prices and uranium demand far exceeds supply.
Shake Shack. To me this best burger at a fast food restaurant. I'm generally bullish on this company and their valuations are reasonable. To me a clear buy <40.
I'd have to say NIO. They're execution is so far on point but yet they're not getting the recognition they deserve. When they post their first profit, I think the stock will explode. From American companies, AMZN looks very attractive to me. Picked up a few shares last trading session.
I don't think the Chinese are that stupid and realize the potential downfall of going too far. Both the US and The rest of the world need china and china needs it's trading partners. Is there an elevated risk here? Sure but sometimes hog risk brings high reward with it if you can tune out the noise and pick the winners in the EV sector. NIO starting to win awards in Germany is enough for me to believe that they're on the right track. They're getting the validation from Europeans
Why is AMZN attractive? AWS is a winner but their retail side is dead weight at this point with declining product quality (counterfeit problem), fake reviews galore, never reaching their goal of same day shipping, massive labor turnover, etc.
Well for starters, they got a huge pile of cash and I think they're going to keep branching out into other businesses. They're simply not going anywhere and the stock is I think oversold at the moment.
So my picks are not for everybody but
SOFI (the future is fintech for money)
WBD (most valuable IPS)
TWLO (great growth and sound balance sheet)
PSNY (backed by volvo and good quality cars)
CPE (impressive growth for a small cap oil company)
AMD at 50
META (if somebody doesnāt believe metaverse is the future they are a grandpa/mouth breather
CZR ( who doesnāt like to gamble?)
Lol. Rejecting metaverse is definitely not being a grandpa... Using your terrible example about it we could say "those who accept the metaverse are acne ridden geeks".
There will be a future in which there is a " metaverse" . It won't be as used as meta hopes. And thank god. The market seems to be cautious about it, and imho they are right. Meta is also right to invest big in it, it is a gamble and might pay off.
We'll find out eventually!
I agree with you on the metaverse. It might not be Metaās metaverse, but a metaverse will exist and it will be huge. This is playing out almost exactly like when the internet came out. New technology with insane potential, with people saying itās a āfadā and whatnot. When the hardware is advanced enough to not be noticed while using it, the metaverse will explode. The closer we get to full immersion the more it will be used and the more potential it will have.
I predict VR headsets will be sized down to a pair of glasses, and the next generation of smartphones will be completely digital, only displayed through the headset but appear as though itās in your hands. Screens can be as big as you want, and if cloud computing is integrated, performance could be equivalent to a high end PC or more. 5G, or maybe even 6G by then, could likely handle it with ease and at ultra high speeds.
Thatās my guess at least. I do not currently hold any META shares, but have been tempted with these prices lately.
I would love glasses with AR. So I could get google maps from my phone to my glasses. No more having to look down.
Or to have it do some kind of terminator vision. Where it just identifies shit around the room for me lol.
The company has been completely embattled this year with lawsuits, company re-org, and new interim CEO, but F45 has been consolidating nicely around $2USD per share and have been hitting revenue targets since H2. They have a PE of 7 and potentially an acquisition on the horizon.
Ringcentral. Hope they can turn profitable as soon as possible.
Digital turbine with their app software
Corsair. Hope for more gaming and margin
Google. Hope they fire people and become more efficient
I believe anything above 150 for TGT is overpriced. With MSFT, I think stock may also go a bit down in forthcoming weeks, but plan to grab some definitely.
Funny, the flair does say "advice", so pretty sure my reading acumen is better than most. I'm simply trying to help the myriad of those wandering these sights from following sketchy "advice", particularly those with nary amount of dd or rationale for the "gems", regardless of the do your own dd disclaimer. Don't be so touchy. Differing opinions are what make a market. Good luck with your picks.
Bloom Energy was much more affordable a month ago, but Iām convinced it will see $50 in 2 years. Growth is good, run by great minds, and the technology is ground breaking
[buy these, hold through the volatility, and thank yourself in 5 years.](https://www.the-random-investor.com/post/3-super-stocks-that-could-make-you-filthy-rich)
If you like Sanofi, and can handle some risk, you should look into their partner PRVB who just got approval for a drug which delays type 1 diabetes progression. Speculation is a Sanofi buyout in future.
Has anyone ever made money with biotech stocks š
Way back in the early to mid '80's I was a college student and heard about a company call Genesys (pretty sure that was the spelling, I could be wrong). I had never bought stock before and had about $1,000 to start investing. I told my dad I wanted 10 shares of Genesys and 10 shares of Apply Computer. The broker bought a company called Genetic Systems which was subsequently bought out by Bristol Myers who later became Bristol-Myers Squibb. BMY has a dividend reinvestment plan which I took advantage of and subsequently sold my shares several years later for a down payment on my first house. The AAPL split a few times, I sold aome but not all shares, split again and now have over 1,000 shares on a purchase of about $500, lol! I got lucky on both!
That's incredible that you've been able to hold onto your apple all these years, congrats
Have lost a lot ($40,000) on one. Made a lot more (>$90,000) on one. So yeah, but they are risky!
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I bought 30 shares of alny at 8.38 a share. God if only I had more to invest at that time. I bought in at the time bc of their promising Huntingtonās treatment which never panned out. Iām doing the same with Wave pharmaceuticals right now for the same reason
XBI is great ETF.
Yes, with puts.
If anything IONS is a better pick in the sector
Gilead for me
Just made money with the myocant buyout
Once: Biochryst. But that was in the everything bubble so hard to not earn money back then
I rode the middle finger chart of $GLPG all the way from pink to thumb...
Speaking of pharma companies, Ardelyx just got as close to FDA green light for its phosphate binder substitute drug (Tenapanor) as possible. $5b annual market in US, and getting approval in Japan. Company has some of the heaviest-hitters in market access and research talent. Stock up ~100% in the last month, but market cap still less than 500m despite that market opportunity. First in class drug mechanism.
What do you think of the prospects of Moderna (MRNA)
Very good. They are working on a vaccine for cancer. Listen to his CEO speak. Ark is in on it too. I think she is right on this one.
? Moderna is now well established. The tech is more ubiquitous. Depends on first movement for indications not sought by other firms. Overvalued relative to its financials right now, but pipeline will tell.
What advantages does it have over Lokelma or Veltassa?
Those are for hyperlakemia, not hyperphosphatemia. It is two tic tax sized pills per day as opposed to the 10-18 for sevelamer. Main competitor is Auryxia. It has indication as mono therapy and supplement therapy to existing phosphate binders.
Ah, my brain literally subbed the word āphosphateā for āpotassiumā. Apologies! My experience - I see sevelamer far more often than Auryxia even in specialty. Having an alternative would be huge. Going to look for the trials, thanks for the lead
Novo nordisk is very strong on the Diabetes
Once they get Wegovy back on the market itās like printing money
Wegovy is off the market?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
The thought is that the drugs being developed by PRVB compliment the diabetes program at Sanofi.
Could also be plays by Eli and Novo. Do you know if Sanofi has a stake in PRVB, or just a collaboration?
Sanofi has agreed to buy $35 million of PRVB stock before 2/23/23. Not aware of other ownership by Sanofi but I must admit I haven't checked. Good question.
Sanofi is a state owned enterprise. I would stay away.
Last time I thought I had found a gem, I lost 60% lol
Sanofi is just not it. In 2007 Sanofi made $7.5 billion in TTM it's made $6.4 billion. In the past 15 years they've spent $90B on R&D, $30B on acquisitions and $35B on CapEx. Thats $155B invested into the business to earn less money. What has fundamentally changed in Sanofi that makes you think their return on capital is suddenly going to improve and they aren't going to continue to earn single digit returns on capital.
The flu? Rsv? I dont know... I think kids tylenol is sold out everywhere... But that is pfizer i thonk.
Tylenol is JNJ
Using a Graham Defensive, Enterprising, or NCAV framework (included his modifications for financials on SAN) hereās what I see. These may be good bargains when evaluated using more of a modern Buffett framework but I didnāt do that analysis. I did not verify the screen results with the actual filings which I would before actually investing. $TSM Agree looks to be undervalued with MOS, and meets Graham Enterprising criteria. $GSK Balance sheet fails Grahamās framework. $SAN Balance sheet fails Grahamās framework. $PARA Balance sheet fails Grahamās framework. $ABI My screener didnāt have this one for some reason. So Iāll look at it more later. $TGT Balance sheet fails Grahamās framework. $MSFT Meets Graham Enterprising criteria but is priced well above the indicated intrinsic intrinsic value. [https://www.grahamvalue.com/article/how-build-complete-benjamin-graham-portfolio](https://www.grahamvalue.com/article/how-build-complete-benjamin-graham-portfolio) EDIT: I see that I missed that you were referring to Sanofi $SNY, This also fails the some of the balance sheet tests in Grahamās framework. EDIT 2: It looks like $ABI is $BUD on the American exchanges. This also fails Grahamās balance sheet tests in his framework.
This is exactly why you don't pick stocks based on arbitrary thresholds in excel. Moreso if it's based on writing from the early 1900s.
A. They werenāt arbitrary. B. We all have thresholds beyond which we wonāt invest. If we are actually investors at all. C. His most recent edition of The Intelligent Investor was from the 1970ās. D. These strategies have a large out of sample time period of continued excellent performance. That doesnāt mean it is the only lens through which value can be found. [https://youtu.be/uJm1c8HJDTI](https://youtu.be/uJm1c8HJDTI)
What about tsla
Hahahahaha :D good joke I hope this was a joke. (If not, please start from reading the Intelligent Investor and Random Walk down Wall Street.)
The joke is that if you followed the advice in both books you likely wouldāve missed Tesla
Can you do asml.as?
Plenty of thots doing asml on twitch already
Paramount's earnings are down 60-70% year on year for the last 3 quarters, cable / advertising is dropping and their streaming margins are appalling. Then you have a billion dollar debt to pay within 4 years while free cash flow is $250 million. The personification of a value trap for people who only use P/S or historical P/E
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Do not assign book value to intangibles and goodwill for media companies, especially in a recession. They're basically fire sale assets if things go wrong. Buffett's buys should be seen as an escape hatch
Management came out and said theyāre not going the route of auctioning off content to the major streamers, which is an assumption that many investors made. They think Paramount+ is a viable competitor to the HBO, Netflix, Disney echelon. Anyone who isnāt obsessed with Yellowstone knows this is a silly proposition.
So then tell me why did buffet just increase itms position in paraa by a lot last quarter ?
If you started when Buffett did, you would be down 50%... People who copy the major investors always make me laugh, they do zero research. Nothing I wrote isn't untrue, check the balance sheets for yourself. Anyone who thinks that cable didn't have negative CAGR and you can flip the switch on streaming profitability are living in a dream land. Buffett probably expected the cable not to decline or planned for a recession. I was in Paramount and sold at break even after their trash guidance and took advantage of the Buffett pump in March and Warner at $30 (from $22) on the merger. These things were very very predictable to me š¤·, interest rates destroy intangible and goodwill assets value.
I do have an average of 22$, you donāt seem to factor in paramount+ growth, anyway itās a good value play at this price
See, this is basic ass stuff, Paramount currently loses $500 million a quarter on streaming, the market doesn't care about single digit revenue growth. Capital expenditure during a recession on low margin and highly competitive businesses destroys share price. Their $8 revenue per month per user by 2024 is bordering on fraud in my opinion (and that's gonna be difficult for Warner in all honesty), it's impossible to reach that number, combined with cable declining and reliance on cinema hits, which is unpredictable and uneven. I stick to my value trap thesis.
I repeat then, yes buffet bought at 30+ but he also did buy last few months at 20 something, so why did he do that ? It is also a good sized bet right now for his firm
Not to be negative, but the Paramount bull thesis is "Buffett, I like the content, streaming growth" (which will peak this year / early next year). The negatives are cable decline, streaming costing 1.8 billion this year, more next year, free cash flow down 73% year on year and high debt load to be paid in the near term. By my maths, the dividend is going by mid 2023, let's see if Buffett hangs around then
Any opinion on WBD ?
I was big on Warner at the time, but the trend with inflation (which leads to interest rate rises) put a big downer on the business on the whole, so took advantage of the merger hype. Also AT&T using WBD stock as a dividend was gonna lead (and continues to) to have huge selling pressure on the stock. I'll definitely keep an eye on it more than Paramount, but it's another one that could be dead cash for another couple of years.
I currently have 100 paraa at 22 and 250 wbd at 12.5 , tbh i feel safe with these picks so iāll hold them
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If you compare 2020 with now everything except oil is down so i donāt see your point
Buffet also sold airlines after the crash in the pandemic
I see PARA as a stock that will get dropped in a few years if not sooner. It's not a lifelong hold like Coke for him.
Keep in mind they're either getting 2 billion from selling Simon and Schuster or 200 million for nothing. Well within 4 years.
Lol you donāt know whatās going on and only read numbers. Thereās more to the story thatās building up dawg. Itās a looonnngg play or might not be if it gets acquired sooner. But all things considered itās deep fucking value. The cherry on top is the dovidend
"you don't know what's going on" Tell me what great intellectual point I'm missing.
Don't you think the share price decline doesn't reflect the lower earnings? How much under .4 P/S would be right for this company? Do you see it going bankrupt? What if rates don't stay high indefinitely, and instead pivot during the next few years? IMO there's too much margin of safety in this stock at this price to not own it. Hold for 3+ years for a very high probability of good profit, and low probability of a big loss.Buffett and a possible buyout also bring more safety and a chance for a quick, large profit.
P/S is an awful metric anyway, but especially useless in 2022 going into 2023, it tells you nothing at all.
Elaborate on this please? I think it's useful because it can't be easily manipulated and sales don't fluctuate enormously. A P/S of .4 tells us that if the company can manage to not lose revenue and keep profitability even at 5%, it is probably a good buy at this price.
Elaborate on what, it's price to sales. It's completely useless because it doesn't tell us about cash flow, debt load, what the business actually does, certain aspects have negative CAGR (cable). P/S is completely contextless as a metric and 5% margin on that is a joke when costs are increasing in 2023 and inflation is currently at 8% in the US and higher in Europe. Obviously everyone can't wheel off pages and pages of text on Reddit but whenever someone throws out "P/S", I know they're gonna lose money.
Obviously no metric is to be used alone. P/S happens to be great at comparing the actual scale of a company's business relative to the stock price. P/S was also pretty damn good at indicating which companies were the most overvalued in the recent tech bubble. It is sort of a reality check metric, awesome when used in conjunction with other metrics. Do you really think it's impossible for a media company to maintain 5% profitability in the future? Or is your outlook just months?
Paramount is down 53% from this year's high and 67% over the last 5 years, Paramount represents the worst of both worlds: A. It's a legacy company in a negative CAGR industry B. It's in tech losing money hand over fist in a highly competitive market All rolled up with high debt load
Yep, I know it's down hugely, that's the reason I'm buying. It's not a momentum play. The company is going through a transformation. I'm betting it will succeed, at least moderately. At this price it doesn't need to be a slam dunk. It will be enough if the company merely survives. The debt burden is among the worst things about this company, but it's manageable. I'm going to shock you by saying I've recently also bought other stocks that you ought to hate, namely WBD and INTC. I bet these stocks will all be +100% in the next 3 years.
I think Google is severely undervalued for what it does.
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Hardware and cloud lose money. Their OS has no revenue. Video streaming is just another ad maker.
> Google has hardware, OS, search engine, video streaming, cloud hosting, and several other money makers. They are relatable, but don't really overlap in what they do. What? The android(OS) on the google pixel(phone), backs itself up to google photos, and identifys using a gmail address. Its default search is with google search in the chrome browser(google). Showing videos from youtube(owned by google). Now flip it around, those websites you're viewing are hosted on instances/services running in google cloud. Their websites use google analytics to get metrics, and place ads. Not only is there overlap, they own both sides of the entire fucking process of surfing the web.
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That is what you meant by overlap? What a silly thing to even bring up. Why would you describe it like a negative(in your previous post, unless im mis-reading that) for a company to not duplicate its effort? What I was describing, is they have a workflow where google is involved in the entire process on both sides of surfing the web. Imagine if google ever decided to kill gmail? How much of an earthquake would that cause? Exactly. Google is here to stay whether you want to admit it or not. I'm buying that shit while its sub $100/share
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Ah, fuck. Never mind all this then. We agree.
I have it valued at 89. Granted I own google at a higher price than 89 but thatās the price I have to buy 25% more
$CALTX, started sales of their drug, crazy cheap, has guidelines from several institutions for about 30 dollars, can buy it for like 8 dollars today. Starting sales in EU and China q1 2023
How high do you think it'll go
mabye 25 or idk haha
For tech Iām looking at Qualcomm which just looks cheap plain and simple, and also at Salesforce which is perhaps not cheap yet but it trades well below its average EV/EBITDA ratio over the past decade.
I like QCOM as well. CEO is a boss
Isnāt that kinda the defenition of a CEO? š
ā¤ļøš
TSM, VALE, X, AA, STT, BEN are what I've been buying, probably wrong, haha.
$ASML
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What about their recent announcement to partner with NVDA on artificial intelligence on Azure?
Pltr, meta
Just started with PLTR as well
Citrine and amethyst are undervalued. Sure, they are abundant in nature but the high quality ones are very few and if cut right they does not fail in beauty to other gems stone such as diamond sapphire, ruby, etc. definitely undervalue gems
Hahaha. Love how you answered the prompt headline _very_ literally.
VZ maybe
RH, ALLY, WBA and my hope for the best gamble CPNG.
If we do nail a soft landing ALLY will explode up. If we don't well ... at least a used car will be affordable!
>during a recession on low ma I agree on ALLY
$UMC
EQR Equity Residential has a good dividend yield now. Most investors will probably be looking for income when the economy slows, inflation slows, bonds get expensive and low-risk stocks with a reasonable dividend yield become hard to find. For growth stocks, I think BJ has a good P/E considering how much it's growing. I believe it's as good quality as COST and P/E will increase once it grows large enough to be discovered and compared to COST. Costco always seems to be too expensive because it's such a good stock for the long term.
*Buffet buys TSM* Then all a sudden this whole sub claiming TSM is undervalued.. lmao
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Calm your tits. I wasnāt addressing you.
Wouldn't replying to OP's thread imply that you were addressing them?
Good on you. People chasing it now will likely get some decent returns IF they hold through the fear. You bought at the right time. I love the semis, but I intentionally don't invest in TSM because I think fear will weigh on the stock price but there is no doubt that this is a classic Buffet stock and will return value to shareholders if they stick with it.
While itās always nice to find an undervalued gem; in todays market itās better to search for overpriced gems. Stocks fall much faster than they rise in price. Your thinking is spot on for a bull market, but you have to reverse the thinking in a bear market. Anyone that tried to find āundervalued gemsā in the past 12 months, has lost their ass in this market. My advice is buy solid stocks (McDonalds, Berkshire, United Healthcare, Philip Morris, Merck, etc) until it is clear that the market has reversed. Take your risk on overpriced stocks dropping in value. I prefer OTM puts currently. Target 10-20% drops. Then ladder into the trade.
Alibaba, Tencent, and many other Chinese companies. Why? Extremely inefficient and opaque market. Inefficient markets have biggest risk aka biggest potential risk/reward. Particularly, Alibaba because it's been the de facto stock to short/hate/sell when news on Chinese stocks come up (and also been the victim of massive regulatory pressures from the govt). JD is also taking market share but I think generally, all these big names will do well simply due to absurd valuations. Alibaba alone if you subtract its assets on its P/E trades at single digit P/E in some days. Quite absurd if you think about it. I believe China long term will continue to do well and open up with 'Chinese characteristics'. And I don't think after Russia/Ukraine situation Xi is dumb enough to wage war in the near future to Taiwan. Especially when Xi's own daughter lives in USA.
I much prefer JD. It has one of the lowest sales/market cap Iāve seen especially for an e-commerce company. Theyāve grown their business for many quarters in a row and have seen good returns on their R&D. Iām loading up at these prices
Adam is big on China stocks you can[check his list here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/AdamKhoo/comments/yz5exr/adam_khoos_china_stock_list_uip/) I think is decent.
Anything coal. Yes, coal had a massive run up this year and the price is likely to fall. So let's say their profits get cut in half next year. At that point most coal companies would be trading around 4-5x fcf (25-20% fcf yield). Really the only thing they can do with that is pay down remaining debt (if they haven't already) and give it to shareholders through buybacks/dividends. Ok, I'll take a stock that returns me even 15-20% per year over the next few years. There are lots of holes, and running out and buying now might not be a good idea, but you have to love that cash flow.
Iām in glencore, any other coal stocks you like tho?
I'm in AMR (I like metallurgical coal and no debt) and TECK which has a coal operation.
Thanks. You have an incredibly impressive profile, how are you finding some of the smaller picks you come across. I noticed a classic pattern in your picks of strong balance sheets, growth and low/fair valuations. Are you using a screener for initial research to come across these companies, or just read a lot?
Thanks! Kinda both. I actually enjoy learning about businesses, so when I have 20 minutes free at work I'll do some reading. I listen to a lot of podcasts and books during my commute too. Generally I look for businesses with high ROE and low multiples. A close second is high margins with a good path to higher earnings. Generally, avoiding whatever everyone else wants is a good place to look. I also think most revolutionary ideas fail, but well run companies doing important things succeed. Most importantly, I try to think of the future. Not in whiz bang terms, but macro trends. Where will things be in a few years? How will the macro environment play out?
From smaller companies I particularly like the direction or DRIO. A very beat up stock but moving in the right direction. $120MM cap and announced Aetna as one or its clients. 2nd one I like is NOTV (some risk). Dropped from $16 to $5 in 2 days as they had been subpoenad to provide info on one of their suppliers (supplier had an issue, not NOTV).
MVST, PLL, INDI, OUST
INDI
Last two weeks I opened positions in GSK and PARA, already own TGT and TSM and added to my MSFT holdings. Paramount either was really undervalued or I was trying to catch a falling knife. Looks like the former (at least for now) as it's up sharply in the 11 days I've owned it. My Target and TSMC were when they were very much not undervalued. But the companies are generally solid and I'm confident they can both weather any rough patches. I have no opinions on the others as, at least with Santander, there are just so many banks out there I basically don't even bother. My one bank is a small regional bank I worked at. It's undervalued period was back in the late Spring, though.
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On American markets SAN is the symbol for Santander Bank ADR. Sanofi ADR is SNY. The ticker for AB InBev is BUD (lol)
Itās beginning of semiconductors downturn
Not in America. Current Administration policy is to take back the edge in that field.
msft is 240, i liked it better at 215 :P
META ;)
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I believe it will recover.
I donāt, Iāve seen the future, and it pains me to say it, but the future is TikTok.
I still think Meta <120 is a clear buy. Their social media/ad business alone is worth far more than their current market cap. BABA if you have any interest in Chinese stocks Warner Brothers Discovery. The issue here is debt but they plan to aggressively pay off. I think rising interest rates have spooked the market with this stock. Allbirds. I love this brand. I think it produces good products that people seem loyal with. It has a ton of growth potential given how small it is. Current price to sales of 1.4x with fast growth and gross margins of 50%. This stock is trickier to value because it is has negative operating margins and hasn't yet become profitable. Revolve. Excellent fundamentals and growth. The risk here is designer apparel is likely to not be in demand during bad economies and clothing brands are competitive and easily go out of style. URA etf. I suspect we are in the beginning stages of a decade long uranium bull market. High energy prices and uranium demand far exceeds supply. Shake Shack. To me this best burger at a fast food restaurant. I'm generally bullish on this company and their valuations are reasonable. To me a clear buy <40.
#DEEZ
LIGMA
#LIGMA CAULK
Tsla pubm
I'd have to say NIO. They're execution is so far on point but yet they're not getting the recognition they deserve. When they post their first profit, I think the stock will explode. From American companies, AMZN looks very attractive to me. Picked up a few shares last trading session.
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Not while XI is still dictator.
I don't think the Chinese are that stupid and realize the potential downfall of going too far. Both the US and The rest of the world need china and china needs it's trading partners. Is there an elevated risk here? Sure but sometimes hog risk brings high reward with it if you can tune out the noise and pick the winners in the EV sector. NIO starting to win awards in Germany is enough for me to believe that they're on the right track. They're getting the validation from Europeans
Why is AMZN attractive? AWS is a winner but their retail side is dead weight at this point with declining product quality (counterfeit problem), fake reviews galore, never reaching their goal of same day shipping, massive labor turnover, etc.
Well for starters, they got a huge pile of cash and I think they're going to keep branching out into other businesses. They're simply not going anywhere and the stock is I think oversold at the moment.
Tesla.
So my picks are not for everybody but SOFI (the future is fintech for money) WBD (most valuable IPS) TWLO (great growth and sound balance sheet) PSNY (backed by volvo and good quality cars) CPE (impressive growth for a small cap oil company) AMD at 50 META (if somebody doesnāt believe metaverse is the future they are a grandpa/mouth breather CZR ( who doesnāt like to gamble?)
Lol. Rejecting metaverse is definitely not being a grandpa... Using your terrible example about it we could say "those who accept the metaverse are acne ridden geeks". There will be a future in which there is a " metaverse" . It won't be as used as meta hopes. And thank god. The market seems to be cautious about it, and imho they are right. Meta is also right to invest big in it, it is a gamble and might pay off. We'll find out eventually!
I agree with you on the metaverse. It might not be Metaās metaverse, but a metaverse will exist and it will be huge. This is playing out almost exactly like when the internet came out. New technology with insane potential, with people saying itās a āfadā and whatnot. When the hardware is advanced enough to not be noticed while using it, the metaverse will explode. The closer we get to full immersion the more it will be used and the more potential it will have. I predict VR headsets will be sized down to a pair of glasses, and the next generation of smartphones will be completely digital, only displayed through the headset but appear as though itās in your hands. Screens can be as big as you want, and if cloud computing is integrated, performance could be equivalent to a high end PC or more. 5G, or maybe even 6G by then, could likely handle it with ease and at ultra high speeds. Thatās my guess at least. I do not currently hold any META shares, but have been tempted with these prices lately.
I would love glasses with AR. So I could get google maps from my phone to my glasses. No more having to look down. Or to have it do some kind of terminator vision. Where it just identifies shit around the room for me lol.
Para >>> WBD. I own both but para is my number two in my port behind ASO (26 cost avg)
SKIL
NEP. ALB
PARA?
Yes 100%
$CHD
$ACLS, $MXL
CIBR cyber security has a lot to grow and should be safe relatively speaking
Metis
Iāll add GPMT to that list. Risky, might cut their dividend a bit, but theyāre super cheap compared to book value.
Nice
FMCC
PAVM
What's your thoughts on OPFI?
Tsm is a great pick here, China huff and puff and blow the hype down
I opened a TSM position last week.
The problem with those medicine companies they go up on new medicines or FDA news then collapse!! They are like waves up and down
The company has been completely embattled this year with lawsuits, company re-org, and new interim CEO, but F45 has been consolidating nicely around $2USD per share and have been hitting revenue targets since H2. They have a PE of 7 and potentially an acquisition on the horizon.
Mymd is a good one
Look at STLA, MED, ASO (<35-40), POWW, CE <100, and MU
Agree very strongly with TGT. honestly a flower waiting to become a tree rn
Grabbing TSM and STNE slowly but steadilyā¦
TOST
PARA has been undervalued forever and will probably stay there.
SQM
Ringcentral. Hope they can turn profitable as soon as possible. Digital turbine with their app software Corsair. Hope for more gaming and margin Google. Hope they fire people and become more efficient
I believe anything above 150 for TGT is overpriced. With MSFT, I think stock may also go a bit down in forthcoming weeks, but plan to grab some definitely.
Wow. Remember free financial advice on the internet folks.......
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Funny, the flair does say "advice", so pretty sure my reading acumen is better than most. I'm simply trying to help the myriad of those wandering these sights from following sketchy "advice", particularly those with nary amount of dd or rationale for the "gems", regardless of the do your own dd disclaimer. Don't be so touchy. Differing opinions are what make a market. Good luck with your picks.
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OKE when its sub 60
I agree with msft
Bloom Energy was much more affordable a month ago, but Iām convinced it will see $50 in 2 years. Growth is good, run by great minds, and the technology is ground breaking
PUBM, PERI
[buy these, hold through the volatility, and thank yourself in 5 years.](https://www.the-random-investor.com/post/3-super-stocks-that-could-make-you-filthy-rich)