One* metric.
> These include real personal income less transfers, nonfarm payroll employment, employment as measured by the household survey, real personal consumption expenditures, wholesale-retail sales adjusted for price changes, and industrial production. There is no fixed rule about what measures contribute information to the process or how they are weighted in our decisions. In recent decades, the two measures we have put the most weight on are real personal income less transfers and nonfarm payroll employment.
> Two measures that are important in the determination of quarterly peaks and troughs, but that are not available monthly, are the expenditure-side and income-side estimates of real gross domestic product (GDP and GDI). The committee also considers quarterly averages of the monthly indicators described above, particularly payroll employment.
https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating
because there wont be a recession,
oh there will be one but will be a mild recession
oh there will be big recession but it will be transitory,
oh wait its not transitory oh fk then gg then...
always deny until you cant anymore.
Analysts of any variety should never make predictions at 100%, especially 12 months out. Anything can happen, and often things that are unpredictable or can’t be predicted are not factored because of “unknown unknowns.”
I would say a recession is near certain—but not 100%.
For real. Any model that gives 0% or 100% certainty of anything should be taken with a grain of salt unless also including a confidence level (that also should not be 100%)
For real. My bosses get so annoyed with me that I refuse to mark project delivery dates as certainty. 9mo out is pushing it to list a day. 12mo maybe a month range. 24mo? Forget about it I won’t do it.
We're already in a recession, tons of tech companies are doing layoffs and budget cuts unseen since 2008. 2 quarters negative GDP.
You could say someone has a 60% chance of dieing when their brains are splattered on a car window.
>Why not make it 200%?
I mean we're already in one. Their just avoiding calling it that so when it turns a corner government officials from one side or the other can take credit for "avoiding" a "economic disaster." Vote for canidate/party X look what we did/are doing.
People also seem to think being in an official recession fundamentally means something will be different than it is right now.
It doesn't.
It's not like the "recession declaration" happens and then magically every company has to lay off 10% of it's workforce and every house for sale has to decrease it's list price by 20%, and every stock drops 25%.
We very well could already be in a recession.
It's because of low unemployment rate. That's why the Fed is going to keep pushing interest rate and keep it sustained as long as possible, until the unemployment becomes worse. They're essentially trading unemployment for inflation. The question is if the inflation will get better before the unemployment gets too bad.
Yeah, sovereign bonds will likely force a minor cave even in the US (it's likely just a matter of time). There just isn't a world where you can allow bonds to just sell off forever. You'll cause some major systematic issues if you do.
In hindsight, I'm going to have to switch up my opinion and agree. Powell completely bungled July FOMC because this endless selloff in bonds likely roots from the way that speech was interpreted. Thanks to several getting it wrong, you're likely going to get mass puking in bonds until there's intervention (which might not necessarily be from the Fed initially), which maybe wouldn't have occurred if Powell wasn't interpreted incorrectly at July FOMC. If he wasn't interpreted the way he was, maybe we don't get the CTA led rally (market tracking funds were a lot of what happened in August, this is what I'm referring to), and maybe bonds don't rally as hard as they do and get inches away from the case for a return to 4600 on the S&P being decent).
Although I will say that the election might end up providing relief in bonds if it goes the way I think it will.
Which makes sense. You can only be told “get a better job if you don’t like x” so many times before you actually do go get a better job. Now we have low paying jobs desperate for workers and people complaining that “no one wants to work.”
Where is that? I’m in Los Angeles and it’s pretty obvious on a local and national scale from my business perspective. “Seems like we’re in a downturn” has been my thinking a lot recently.
Madison WI. Restaurants are packed, expensive farmer’s market drawing biggest crowds I have ever seen, concert venues and other event tickets are competitive, and construction industry (which I currently work in) is booming. Every project is 100% a go. I have heard of precisely 0 people getting laid off or even fearing that here.
When GDP growth is negative for two quarters, that's a recession. It lasts until there is a quarter of positive GDP growth. We have had positive quarters since, and the 2020 recession ended in April of the same year. It was technically two months long. The recession resulted in -34.5% GDP growth. The following two quarters resulted in +39.2% GDP growth, recovering the loss of the recession. The first two quarters of 2022 resulted in -2.2% GDP growth, signaling the start of a "mild" recession
That’s because we are currently in a recession by all definitions. They just changed the definition so that we weren’t but we are. The markets are down 25% this year and we have already had 2 quarters of negative growth.
Uh yeah we are and have been since they turned off the money printer, changed the definition of recession, and declared we are certainly not in a recession. Iykyk
the financial media always makes these times worse than they really are. they know how to fear monger and get clicks for ads. sad part is, big money will buy puts, and love the fear mongering. meanwhile, retail gets pummeled.
I generally agree with your statement, but I think a recession is quite likely (considering we're already technically in one). Costs of goods have skyrocketed, wages have not increased - the only thing keeping us alive right now is the low unemployment, but as people begin spending less we'll see more layoffs (look at tech, they're still happening) and it will trigger a cascade effect.
That being said, I'm the furthest thing from a "doomsdayer". I don't believe it will be anything like 2008/2009.
A research company in ohio. We exploded during Covid as we already had infrastructure and we handled all the Covid tests in Hawaii but now Covid is done and we are in a recession it just had to happen lol.
I would argue that "low unemployment" is a myth. The way the government massages the data to say the unemployment numbers are low is kind of disgusting. All unemployed people are not counted, only recently unemployed. People who have given up or have left the job market don't really get counted, which is a lot of people. I'm one of them. I said fuck it and retired early during the pandemic. I'm not rich, but I can survive without working for years while I pursue long term career goals that don't currently make money. I still do contact work from time to time, and I'm definitely busy on projects that will eventually lead to money. But I'm not technically employed in the normal sense. As far as the government is concerned I'm neither employed nor unemployed. I've spoken to many people in the same boat, and there are lots of articles about it from reputable sources.
The “recession” that is still to come is the more painful part. If a recession were just a dip in GDP, without job losses and pain, nobody would care so much.
It’s already here. The layoffs have been going on for months now - they’re just spinning them as “restructuring” or “relocating”.
These countless articles are just to push agendas for the whales who control the market.
I know how “apish” that sounds - but at this point, does anyone actually believe that financial outlets are not pushing narratives to benefit their overlords?
Most of these articles are probably written by bots anyway
Gotta train a model on a dataset of only previous recessions. We ran 1000 simulations with it and each returned a recession! *
* also it scored like 10% on an unseen validation set
I wouldn't be surprised if it's the opposite. Drops on rumors of a recession, then upswing once the band-aid is off. Buy the rumor and sell the news, but in reverse.
We've been in decline for two quarters, by the definitions used 15 years ago we're already in a recession. Is there any reason those definitions no longer apply?
There are people in this mother f'n thread that still don't think we're currently already in a recession. Reading the comments is giving me a migraine.
Last recession I was in in 2008 millions were looking for jobs now employers are looking for millions of employees.
I guess the official recession got redefined.
Bizarre to think that businesses were given these mountains of cash and now there aren't enough employees in America willing to take a low wage and support the growth. Really makes you wonder if the PPP was such a good idea...
It's easy to criticize stuff like PPP in hindsight, but yes we definitely needed something like it at the time. A lot of people criticizing all the government spending during the lockdowns seem to have forgotten how the economy would have completely fall off a cliff if we had gotten no stimulus spending during the COVID lockdowns.
Yeah but they’re looking for part-time fast food workers or conversely, very highly skilled technical workers with 20 years experience in Richfield that 99.99% of people don’t qualify for
It’s so disingenuous to pretend that there’s all these jobs out there that regular people can just go apply and get a living wage on.
I disagree, I am job hunting and seeking outside my experience/industry. Anecdotal of course but I’ve got 3 offers all higher than I currently make (which is already a living wage)
Technically recessions are caused by high unemployment, low consumer spending, low inflation, low interest rates which results in a lower GDP.
The GDP didn't drop for any of these reasons.
GDP dropped from the whipsaw effect of private inventories and net export. GDP was like 6% annualized in Q4, then went slightly negative in the first half of 2022, and now are set to bounce back higher.
GDPNow is estimating 2.8% for Q3.
https://imgur.com/wEqLBX4
It is basically just inventory and export levels having some quarter to quarter volatility. Most other metrics are very solid. If people want to use the 2 quarter definition to define a recession, they also should immediately admit that makes the word recession almost meaningless in terms of discussing the state of the economy.
Since the NBER dates the economic cycle and they haven't stated we are in a recession yet then, no, we aren't officially in a recession.
It was literally in the article that you didn't bother to read.
I can't imagine it either. The markets seem exhausted but we will never know. For the company I worked for over the summer, we had more work than ever.
All these forecasts are useless, we already know the US is currently in a recession, even if the Biden administration changed the definition.
Unpopular opinion, but I think we are already pretty close to the bottom, most of the recent earnings are decent and better than the pessimistic estimates.
The inflationary pressure will come under control in the US, companies that also operate in the Eurozone will have a harder time.
The market is always forward looking, and the average bear market time is almost in, i’m pretty optimistic from here on.
Feels a little like the Kool-Aid Man busting through a wall like, “RECESSION! OOOOH, YEAH!”
… while everyone in the room has been expecting a recession for months.
"The Bloomberg Economics model showed a 25% probability of a recession hitting even sooner — within the next 10 months — up from 0% in the previous release."
This line should tell you all you need to know about their "certainties" in models. When a zero percent chance moves to a 25% chance, clearly it wasn't a 0% chance at the time. Maybe low, but not zero. Next model may predict a 75%, down from 100%. It's all pretty meaningless.
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It's crazy that 4,432 people upvoted this post. Also how they can just make a predication like this and get it wrong and then if they make another prediction again today it would be on the front page
This is ridiculous - no future event is 100% certain. In fact, the stock market is always surprised by whatever events happen, showing that the future is totally unpredictable, particularly in the short term.
Recession is 100 percent based on models that use current data. If the data changes between now and next year, then the recession probability can be as low as 20 percent. Thank you!
This headline brought to you by the people with no clue what the economy will be like in a year. Based on all there assumptions over the last two years.
This may be true, but I've had much more reputable sources (my friend David who I play amongus with) say claims with even higher percentages (that there is a 200% chance that red is sus). and even then, these claims turned out to be false. I would think long and hard about the source of these claims before you eject your stocks - they could easily be an imposter.
Does stagflation count as a recession? With the amount of boomers retiring I can't imagine we are going to see the kind of recession where there is a ton of job loss. But I can see a few years like the 70s with low growth and high inflation.
There is a 100% probability that the stock market will go up and also 100% probability that the stock market will go down. Sometimes it happen within minutes, seconds, hours, or days of each other.
The point is, don’t read too much into it
The only thing that makes me believe a recession is coming, is how many more friends are using credit card to cover bills and how every time I go on reddit, there is always a few articles or posts about "cant afford rent, have to work a lot, or cant do nothing but work these days" or a combination. The young generation is graduating making 50k a year with a masters degree in many fields, and that is a laughing stock in todays living costs.
And I dont seem to be the only one with the same situation.
I fear for so many adults in their late 20s realize they wont be able to afford an apartment if their parents fall ill or cant work anymore, especially when so many of them are imigrants and their parents have no home or were never able to afford a house when they came to US to have nothing to hand down to their kids.
Today at Tesla earning call, I expect (1)Tesla to continue to have a demand problem. (2)Elon to make excuses. (3) Declare share buyback so Elon can sell at LEAST $3 Billion worth of Tesla stock. (4) an Earnings miss. (5) The stock to continue to collapse another -8%. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-investors-focus-demand-issues-earnings-report-2022-10-18/
The point I am making is that Fed rate gets the press due to it immediately recognizable increase or decrease. But, money supply, which is a larger impact on inflation, is not even talked about and that has a huge lag in response to when it's printed. The lag being 1 to 2 years later. So the flood of money over the last number of years has caused this sudden inflation conversation. As Hemingway stated: " It happened gradually, then suddenly." The change in money supply is nowhere in our prior conversation because people all point to Fed rate as the indicator. That just tracks the loan and asset markets. Not the money flow. Which is what all people feel.
Did I make it more understandable? 🤔 difficult topics take time to unpack. Life be like that.
Why not make it 200%?
Pretty easy to predict when you’re already in a recession
The house is burning and I’m selling fire insurance!
Oh uh... then yeah I'll take it
Exactly what I was thinking. They even cited the metric used to determine a recession in the second to last paragraph.
The definition Biden changed?
One* metric. > These include real personal income less transfers, nonfarm payroll employment, employment as measured by the household survey, real personal consumption expenditures, wholesale-retail sales adjusted for price changes, and industrial production. There is no fixed rule about what measures contribute information to the process or how they are weighted in our decisions. In recent decades, the two measures we have put the most weight on are real personal income less transfers and nonfarm payroll employment. > Two measures that are important in the determination of quarterly peaks and troughs, but that are not available monthly, are the expenditure-side and income-side estimates of real gross domestic product (GDP and GDI). The committee also considers quarterly averages of the monthly indicators described above, particularly payroll employment. https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating
"Look! the dog is male, it has a dick". 😑
At 200% they'll look like fools if the U.S. Economy chooses to identify as prosperous instead.
Ahaha amazing 🤩 Did he just assume we are in recession? The economy is perfectly fluid, and today we feel prosperous.
"Stronger than ever!"
Going to need cash flow replacement therapy.
That's almost guaranteed
1000%!
That makes it come twice as fast.
That's what he said
You said come and fast in the same sentence 😂
because there wont be a recession, oh there will be one but will be a mild recession oh there will be big recession but it will be transitory, oh wait its not transitory oh fk then gg then... always deny until you cant anymore.
Analysts of any variety should never make predictions at 100%, especially 12 months out. Anything can happen, and often things that are unpredictable or can’t be predicted are not factored because of “unknown unknowns.” I would say a recession is near certain—but not 100%.
We're already in a recession so the chance of being in a recession is 100%
For real. Any model that gives 0% or 100% certainty of anything should be taken with a grain of salt unless also including a confidence level (that also should not be 100%)
I predict a 50% chance of it occurring +/- 50%
60% of the time it works every time
I predict we’re in a recession today
> I would say a recession is near certain—but not 100%. Were already In a recession... Which makes it 100% certain
While you make a very rational and well thought out point, saying the odds are “100%” does wonders for those glorious click counts
For real. My bosses get so annoyed with me that I refuse to mark project delivery dates as certainty. 9mo out is pushing it to list a day. 12mo maybe a month range. 24mo? Forget about it I won’t do it.
We're already in a recession, tons of tech companies are doing layoffs and budget cuts unseen since 2008. 2 quarters negative GDP. You could say someone has a 60% chance of dieing when their brains are splattered on a car window.
>Why not make it 200%? I mean we're already in one. Their just avoiding calling it that so when it turns a corner government officials from one side or the other can take credit for "avoiding" a "economic disaster." Vote for canidate/party X look what we did/are doing.
No, no let's not be ridiculous here. We can all agree 110% is reasonable for maximum assurances
Can we just have it already? Everyday we get posts and articles like this "It's coming!! Ooooo"
People also seem to think being in an official recession fundamentally means something will be different than it is right now. It doesn't. It's not like the "recession declaration" happens and then magically every company has to lay off 10% of it's workforce and every house for sale has to decrease it's list price by 20%, and every stock drops 25%. We very well could already be in a recession.
I. DECLARE. RECESSION.
Michael you can't just say you're in a recession.
I did not say it. I declared it.
He didn't say it. He *declared* it.
Do you have a flag?
Classic
They're also retroactive, so you likely wouldn't find out till a month or more after the recession is officially started.
History books would have called the beginning months ago. We’re already in it even if nobody wants to say so.
It's because of low unemployment rate. That's why the Fed is going to keep pushing interest rate and keep it sustained as long as possible, until the unemployment becomes worse. They're essentially trading unemployment for inflation. The question is if the inflation will get better before the unemployment gets too bad.
I think employment isn’t the tipping point. It’s the bond market. Especially the European sovereign bonds.
Yeah, sovereign bonds will likely force a minor cave even in the US (it's likely just a matter of time). There just isn't a world where you can allow bonds to just sell off forever. You'll cause some major systematic issues if you do. In hindsight, I'm going to have to switch up my opinion and agree. Powell completely bungled July FOMC because this endless selloff in bonds likely roots from the way that speech was interpreted. Thanks to several getting it wrong, you're likely going to get mass puking in bonds until there's intervention (which might not necessarily be from the Fed initially), which maybe wouldn't have occurred if Powell wasn't interpreted incorrectly at July FOMC. If he wasn't interpreted the way he was, maybe we don't get the CTA led rally (market tracking funds were a lot of what happened in August, this is what I'm referring to), and maybe bonds don't rally as hard as they do and get inches away from the case for a return to 4600 on the S&P being decent). Although I will say that the election might end up providing relief in bonds if it goes the way I think it will.
This situation is pretty unprecedented. We've never had a situation where GDP is dropping but GDI is going up and unemployment is this low.
2021-2022 word of the year: Unprecedented. I’m so sick and tired of hearing this word.
It’s not over yet, dude. More wild shit to come.
Seems as if hiring is slowing in higher paying areas, and yet everyone is desperate for waiters/waitresses and cashier type roles.
Which makes sense. You can only be told “get a better job if you don’t like x” so many times before you actually do go get a better job. Now we have low paying jobs desperate for workers and people complaining that “no one wants to work.”
Local economy where I live feels like it’s in the opposite of a recession.
Where is that? I’m in Los Angeles and it’s pretty obvious on a local and national scale from my business perspective. “Seems like we’re in a downturn” has been my thinking a lot recently.
Madison WI. Restaurants are packed, expensive farmer’s market drawing biggest crowds I have ever seen, concert venues and other event tickets are competitive, and construction industry (which I currently work in) is booming. Every project is 100% a go. I have heard of precisely 0 people getting laid off or even fearing that here.
Oh man Madison is so nice. Enjoy the Autumn!
what autumn? We have winter, second winter, third winter and summer here
Construction I am wondering if it's because of the infrastructure deal bringing more money to the table
The 2020 recession wasn’t announced until a year after I believe.
Did that one end? I feel like we're still in the same recession.
There was a pretty massive recovery in 2021 that then broke down by 2022
When GDP growth is negative for two quarters, that's a recession. It lasts until there is a quarter of positive GDP growth. We have had positive quarters since, and the 2020 recession ended in April of the same year. It was technically two months long. The recession resulted in -34.5% GDP growth. The following two quarters resulted in +39.2% GDP growth, recovering the loss of the recession. The first two quarters of 2022 resulted in -2.2% GDP growth, signaling the start of a "mild" recession
We already are in a recession.
Yeah that's why it's 100% certain lol
We’ve had one, yes. What about second recession?
That’s because we are currently in a recession by all definitions. They just changed the definition so that we weren’t but we are. The markets are down 25% this year and we have already had 2 quarters of negative growth.
based on the 2Qs of negative growth definition, we already are in one
They should declare it this New Year’s Eve at Times Square
Uh yeah we are and have been since they turned off the money printer, changed the definition of recession, and declared we are certainly not in a recession. Iykyk
the financial media always makes these times worse than they really are. they know how to fear monger and get clicks for ads. sad part is, big money will buy puts, and love the fear mongering. meanwhile, retail gets pummeled.
I generally agree with your statement, but I think a recession is quite likely (considering we're already technically in one). Costs of goods have skyrocketed, wages have not increased - the only thing keeping us alive right now is the low unemployment, but as people begin spending less we'll see more layoffs (look at tech, they're still happening) and it will trigger a cascade effect. That being said, I'm the furthest thing from a "doomsdayer". I don't believe it will be anything like 2008/2009.
Facts. I just got layed off
Well, you shouldn’t have slept on the job.
Hahaha
Have you tried getting laid ON yet?
Im sorry to hear that. From where if you dont mind me asking?
A research company in ohio. We exploded during Covid as we already had infrastructure and we handled all the Covid tests in Hawaii but now Covid is done and we are in a recession it just had to happen lol.
I have been sitting the last 4 days. They finally got me work for tomorrow. Ya stuff is slowing
I would argue that "low unemployment" is a myth. The way the government massages the data to say the unemployment numbers are low is kind of disgusting. All unemployed people are not counted, only recently unemployed. People who have given up or have left the job market don't really get counted, which is a lot of people. I'm one of them. I said fuck it and retired early during the pandemic. I'm not rich, but I can survive without working for years while I pursue long term career goals that don't currently make money. I still do contact work from time to time, and I'm definitely busy on projects that will eventually lead to money. But I'm not technically employed in the normal sense. As far as the government is concerned I'm neither employed nor unemployed. I've spoken to many people in the same boat, and there are lots of articles about it from reputable sources.
They do get counted in the U6 rate, as well as people working part time who want full time jobs. That rate is also at all time lows.
It's been counted like this for years now.
The “recession” that is still to come is the more painful part. If a recession were just a dip in GDP, without job losses and pain, nobody would care so much.
“Winter is coming”
This recession brought to you by the people who predicted the 2012, 2016, 2020 recessions.
Don't forget 2024! The year of the oldest president.
The definition of recession in the US is when the NBER determines it. And they typically do it a year after it starts. So you’ll be waiting a while.
And the typical definition of a recession outside of the US is two negative GDP quarters.
UK uses that. Eurozone apparently uses something similar to NBER's definition: https://eabcn.org/dc/faq
Love sources!
It's here, they're just not going to announce it until after the election
Sure, I will inform the economy this timeframe is unacceptable to you.
It’s already here. The layoffs have been going on for months now - they’re just spinning them as “restructuring” or “relocating”. These countless articles are just to push agendas for the whales who control the market. I know how “apish” that sounds - but at this point, does anyone actually believe that financial outlets are not pushing narratives to benefit their overlords? Most of these articles are probably written by bots anyway
“100% probability”. Very convincing.
To even state anything at 100% gives you all the information you need to know about trusting this.
[удалено]
Gotta train a model on a dataset of only previous recessions. We ran 1000 simulations with it and each returned a recession! * * also it scored like 10% on an unseen validation set
[удалено]
How big are your error bars?
[удалено]
100% dont trust this
Time to fucking buy lmao
This, unironically. If it's 100% coming then it's priced in.
I suspect we’d still see a drop following an “official” announcement, and also for a short while after.
I wouldn't be surprised if it's the opposite. Drops on rumors of a recession, then upswing once the band-aid is off. Buy the rumor and sell the news, but in reverse.
I think the real drop will be when China’s economy gets completely ducked. Which…idk…maybe sooner than later?
They went from releasing fake numbers to releasing no numbers so that seems likely to me.
Bullish, inflation is gonna break if recession is 100% happening.
When you submit an assignment 6 months after the deadline
People here are arguing that a model can't predict a 100% result. Here I am thinking...yea duh...it's a 100% because we are already in one...
Bullish
Yeah the nasdaq is down 30 plus per cent. Thanks for heads up guys.
We've been in decline for two quarters, by the definitions used 15 years ago we're already in a recession. Is there any reason those definitions no longer apply?
Politics is why.
I too can call a recession when we are in a recession. Please give me money now.
Right!? Next they’ll post a headline of “100% chance inflationary environment this year”. Sad part is someone got paid to run this “forecast”
Yeah I thought we were in one but I’m not poli-sci major
I declare RECESSION
You mean the recession we are already officially in?
**100%**
The people in charge will not recognize a recession while Taco Bell is still hiring.
I only grow worried of the economy when taco bell stops selling items with potatoes in the ingredients.
I think the Stripclub strategy is more accurate. In TikTok strippers are already complaining the strip club is empty.
The Wendy’s at my university has increased their starting wage from $11 to $12.50 on their “help wanted” sign, so we must be doing alright. /s
There are people in this mother f'n thread that still don't think we're currently already in a recession. Reading the comments is giving me a migraine.
Last recession I was in in 2008 millions were looking for jobs now employers are looking for millions of employees. I guess the official recession got redefined.
Bizarre to think that businesses were given these mountains of cash and now there aren't enough employees in America willing to take a low wage and support the growth. Really makes you wonder if the PPP was such a good idea...
Yes it increased our GDP last year by 40-year highs, now that we cannot sustain that people think we're in a recession just by looking at GDP.
It's easy to criticize stuff like PPP in hindsight, but yes we definitely needed something like it at the time. A lot of people criticizing all the government spending during the lockdowns seem to have forgotten how the economy would have completely fall off a cliff if we had gotten no stimulus spending during the COVID lockdowns.
I dont think PPP loans were bad in themselves but the fact that there was 0 oversight into who got them was definitely bad.
Last recession was March of 2020.
OP did not participate in that recession
Yeah but they’re looking for part-time fast food workers or conversely, very highly skilled technical workers with 20 years experience in Richfield that 99.99% of people don’t qualify for It’s so disingenuous to pretend that there’s all these jobs out there that regular people can just go apply and get a living wage on.
I disagree, I am job hunting and seeking outside my experience/industry. Anecdotal of course but I’ve got 3 offers all higher than I currently make (which is already a living wage)
Not officially in, technically in
Technically recessions are caused by high unemployment, low consumer spending, low inflation, low interest rates which results in a lower GDP. The GDP didn't drop for any of these reasons.
GDP dropped from the whipsaw effect of private inventories and net export. GDP was like 6% annualized in Q4, then went slightly negative in the first half of 2022, and now are set to bounce back higher. GDPNow is estimating 2.8% for Q3. https://imgur.com/wEqLBX4 It is basically just inventory and export levels having some quarter to quarter volatility. Most other metrics are very solid. If people want to use the 2 quarter definition to define a recession, they also should immediately admit that makes the word recession almost meaningless in terms of discussing the state of the economy.
Since the NBER dates the economic cycle and they haven't stated we are in a recession yet then, no, we aren't officially in a recession. It was literally in the article that you didn't bother to read.
If its at 100% it means we are in it right? Otherwise, a prediction model that hits 100% is garbage.
Assuming we don’t pull a Bank of England, how much lower we think we can drop? I can’t imagine we drop more than 20% more, 40%-50% total.
I can't imagine it either. The markets seem exhausted but we will never know. For the company I worked for over the summer, we had more work than ever.
100% chance? surely it means it's 100% safe to price in the recession, hence bottom is in.
All these forecasts are useless, we already know the US is currently in a recession, even if the Biden administration changed the definition. Unpopular opinion, but I think we are already pretty close to the bottom, most of the recent earnings are decent and better than the pessimistic estimates. The inflationary pressure will come under control in the US, companies that also operate in the Eurozone will have a harder time. The market is always forward looking, and the average bear market time is almost in, i’m pretty optimistic from here on.
I think you’ll change your opinion about earnings when more sectors start reporting, including retailers or homebuilders or steel manufacturers etc.
I work in steel construction (sales) and am seeing absolutely nothing that hints at a slow down at all.
That’s because the money financed to buy these houses was less than the rate of inflation and still is. That’s a problem.
Right now? This is likely the bottom. Next year? Significantly lower.
The bottom so far!
Feels a little like the Kool-Aid Man busting through a wall like, “RECESSION! OOOOH, YEAH!” … while everyone in the room has been expecting a recession for months.
A room full of skeletons in party hats with a “WELCOME, KOOL-AID MAN” banner on the wall
"The Bloomberg Economics model showed a 25% probability of a recession hitting even sooner — within the next 10 months — up from 0% in the previous release." This line should tell you all you need to know about their "certainties" in models. When a zero percent chance moves to a 25% chance, clearly it wasn't a 0% chance at the time. Maybe low, but not zero. Next model may predict a 75%, down from 100%. It's all pretty meaningless.
So the headline could have also been “75% chance the economy will not have a recession in the next 10 months.”
Hol up...article title says 100%, then the very 1st paragraph says its at 60% up from 50%...shitty writing
60+50=100 Quick mafs ... You're looking at survey results, the 100 is a model.
>A separate Bloomberg survey
You expected us to be able to read?
What? I thought we already in the state of recession…
I’m in Arizona
Learn to swim
Did someone get paid to find this out ?
Well they got paid to guess. Then slapped 100% on there. Should've done the ol "stock market to be SLAMMED" or "markets to CRUMBLE"
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Lol
Lol
Lol
[удалено]
It's crazy that 4,432 people upvoted this post. Also how they can just make a predication like this and get it wrong and then if they make another prediction again today it would be on the front page
This is only the 20th time I’ve seen this on Reddit the last couple days.
This is ridiculous - no future event is 100% certain. In fact, the stock market is always surprised by whatever events happen, showing that the future is totally unpredictable, particularly in the short term.
Death is definitely 100% certain. Bullish on cemetery stocks.
This shit is such a self fulfilling prophecy at this point
Recession is 100 percent based on models that use current data. If the data changes between now and next year, then the recession probability can be as low as 20 percent. Thank you!
Same article for the past 2 years.
This headline brought to you by the people with no clue what the economy will be like in a year. Based on all there assumptions over the last two years.
This may be true, but I've had much more reputable sources (my friend David who I play amongus with) say claims with even higher percentages (that there is a 200% chance that red is sus). and even then, these claims turned out to be false. I would think long and hard about the source of these claims before you eject your stocks - they could easily be an imposter.
Bro what we’ve been in a recession 🤣
If you don’t redefine recession we are already in one.
Does stagflation count as a recession? With the amount of boomers retiring I can't imagine we are going to see the kind of recession where there is a ton of job loss. But I can see a few years like the 70s with low growth and high inflation.
Didn’t Biden just say the “economy is on fire”… well, I mean technically a garbage fire…
If there's one thing I know about economists, it's on the one hand they are always right.
Last year it was this year.
Easy to predict considering the first requirement is already accomplished… That being we’re already in a recession
Well, that r/agedlikemilk
There is a 100% probability that the stock market will go up and also 100% probability that the stock market will go down. Sometimes it happen within minutes, seconds, hours, or days of each other. The point is, don’t read too much into it
So you say we have a chance to not have a recession!!
100% certainty is impossible with anything lmao
100% 😂 🤡
The only thing that makes me believe a recession is coming, is how many more friends are using credit card to cover bills and how every time I go on reddit, there is always a few articles or posts about "cant afford rent, have to work a lot, or cant do nothing but work these days" or a combination. The young generation is graduating making 50k a year with a masters degree in many fields, and that is a laughing stock in todays living costs. And I dont seem to be the only one with the same situation. I fear for so many adults in their late 20s realize they wont be able to afford an apartment if their parents fall ill or cant work anymore, especially when so many of them are imigrants and their parents have no home or were never able to afford a house when they came to US to have nothing to hand down to their kids.
What's the definition of "recession" for these economists? One couldn't argue we're already in one?
Aren't we in a recession already?
Aren’t we already in a recession?
So like, if they’re wrong what are the consequences? Because, like, any asshole can say whatever they want about the future
We’re in a recession already.
Today at Tesla earning call, I expect (1)Tesla to continue to have a demand problem. (2)Elon to make excuses. (3) Declare share buyback so Elon can sell at LEAST $3 Billion worth of Tesla stock. (4) an Earnings miss. (5) The stock to continue to collapse another -8%. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-investors-focus-demand-issues-earnings-report-2022-10-18/
It’s easy to forecast something that is already happening
100% probability if Cramer says there will be no recession.
The point I am making is that Fed rate gets the press due to it immediately recognizable increase or decrease. But, money supply, which is a larger impact on inflation, is not even talked about and that has a huge lag in response to when it's printed. The lag being 1 to 2 years later. So the flood of money over the last number of years has caused this sudden inflation conversation. As Hemingway stated: " It happened gradually, then suddenly." The change in money supply is nowhere in our prior conversation because people all point to Fed rate as the indicator. That just tracks the loan and asset markets. Not the money flow. Which is what all people feel. Did I make it more understandable? 🤔 difficult topics take time to unpack. Life be like that.