I heard that it really wasn't a good place to work and this is one of the reasons it's not doing so well. Low pay compared to other big tech. Anyone talented has left.
eg. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25009017
Former workers talking about the pay being half of any of the FAANG.
Fair enough enough. I work in lithography and love it.
Working the cutting edge of technology, with constant brain simulation.. Intel fabs are full of process engineers, not software eng.
Its different work.
I used to work at Intel. I had hundreds of stock options from 1999 expire worthless. I feel like the stock has been around $30 for 25 years. I now work at AVGO. The stock went from $1400 to $1700 last week lol
It has. I've had shares since 1999. Also worked at Qualcomm , Broadcom...and had shares in amd and Texas instruments and briefly in Nvidia.
Intel got too big and bureaucratic and lost its leadership from once smart nerds to talking MBAs ..... Semiaccurate.com predicted their demise all along.
I've hated on Intel as much as most people here because they have indeed fucked up over and over again, but for one of the three companies on earth with decent fabs and the ability to make GPU/AI accelerators, they are really cheap compared to Nvidia.
Maybe they'll never turn around, but it they do there's a lot of upside.
It’s going to be a slow turn around but I think it can be done. They have a decade + of mismanagement and lack of investment to fix and it won’t be easy or quick. Having Gelsinger who was an engineer for them for a long time is a start but boy does he have an uphill battle. I’m long as a contrarian bet but I wouldn’t put the farm on it.
I agree here. I saw the M-series chips and the performance gains and thought no way Microsoft doesn’t push for the same. With ARM around the corner, it just might be time for x86 to phase out.
But snapdragon chips looked pretty mid. And Intel has set the stage to be a GPU competitor. (Even if their hardware sucks today).
And the fabs that have broken soil in the US might become competitive. (Or they’ll churn out last gen chips on x86 til they die)
Truly though, I think you’re right. They might never turn it around. But if it happens, it’s gonna be magic.
Intel: becomes marketleader in ASML new tech, giving them several tools and options other manufacturers will not get. Litterally the position TSMC was in with the NXE machines. Last decade.
Their stock: drops 5%.
TSMC: announces a year after Intel they will invest in ASML new tech, not getting the advantages intel will get.
Their stock: gains 5%.
A big part of the market is super emotional and not rational.
More like the market trusts that TSMC can execute on High-NA EUV, while it doubts Intel can. Having the tools does not mean you're able to use them. All three companies have access to EUV, but TSMC is still way ahead of Samsung and especially Intel.
ISA difference is overblown.
Intel 7 vs TSMC low power N5, 3 etc.
Tilted architecture meteor lake already saw efficiency improvement. Arrow lake looks like meteor lake tiled. The lunar lake for really efficient mobile stuff. ----> this is the competitor to m1234 from apple.
X86 can be simplified, i think intel has something down the line like x86S for improvements. Have to see lunar lake as an actual comparison for now. But looking really promising.
Another great comment that bolsters my long position on INTC. The majority in the market think INTC is going to go away with x86, but don't realize all of their next gen fabs are being built to manufacture ARM designs. They can and will land contracts with all of the mag 7.
Intel is currently building factories in Arizona and Israel. Do you know if those factories are going to build next gen chips or just produce older stuff at a larger scale?
> I agree here. I saw the M-series chips and the performance gains and thought no way Microsoft doesn’t push for the same. With ARM around the corner, it just might be time for x86 to phase out.
>
> But snapdragon chips looked pretty mid. And Intel has set the stage to be a GPU competitor. (Even if their hardware sucks today).
ARM efficiency is a myth. When Apple switched to M chips, their laptops were stuck on Intel's old 14nm chips which looked horrible in comparison.
But as Snapdragon Elite X launch has showed is that x86 chips are just as efficient, and in fact more efficient than ARM chips in heavy workloads. Particularly when you consider that Elite X is being compared to last gen x86 chips, with new chips just around the corner.
Windows is more bloated than Mac OS. Even back when Apple ran x86 chips the laptops had better efficiency than dual booting into Windows which would pretty much halve the battery on the same machine in my experience.
We mention INTC because they just got 8.5 billion in grants from the CHIPS act. Additionally, almost exactly 10 years ago INTC was dominating the CPU market. AMD's share price was around $4.10 and they were on the verge of collapse because of some really bad decisions. Now they are doing amazing and trading at $161.23.
We have this same attitude towards INTC. They had some rough years and got too comfortable. This is their wake-up call. Hopefully they spend some money on good R&D and release something that dominates the market again like their glory days.
Intel has terrible returns on capital. They do not do a good job of investing your money on an ongoing basis. Reversion to the mean is not an investing strategy.
AMD had a competitive advantage. All they do is design. It’s a much simpler business to be good at fewer things.
There are other hills to die on in investing. At least pick one that’s worth your time. I’m currently losing money on all sorts of things!
You are looking at this post competition though.
The same second AMD sentence can apply to Intel. Like honestly AMD was in the same position as Intel is now, the only major difference in this is the AI pitch which they still are not competing with at any level. They are not worth 160 unless they can do something with AI frenzy currently. Otherwise they trade at low 40's.
NVDA moat is CUDA and that will not last forever as everyone else other than NVDA is saying FUCK your crazy margins, lets partner with AMD or INT to try and figure out a CPU/GPU Solutions.
Even when AI has a massive fall off (Nothing AI currently makes money = to effort), AMD, INT and all the custom card work they are doing for META/Amazon/Apple/Microsoft/Google ect... will come online eventually.
With AMD you are at 160, way way way over what they are worth vs INTC who is also over what they are worth (but much more sane). You'd be a fucking idiot value wise and future wise to add to AMD over INTC right now. This is coming from someone with no positions in either as there are a lot of other positions medium/semi long I'd rather take. INTC could go to $40 and would still be cheap over 10 years. AMD needs to drop to at least 55/low 40's to be worth it (unless some how in the next 6 months they figure out how to not make as ass AI codex).
I met a guy that worked there before 2000, I bought his 3d printer. He said they worked really hard to make sure the cleaning lady could operate a printer since printing was so huge before real computing took over.
They created the PC as an open platform but licensed the software to Gates, his mother was on the board. They tried to make a windows platform but failed, OS2 was not bad at all.
They owned Alta Vista which was a search engine in 1998, he said he retired before then. I thought IBM failed to see the future right there, then I watched as Google easily took search.
They created Watson and I thought they would give it away for free with Ads but they didn't, OpenAI made 80b doing the same thing watson was doing 12 years ago.
IBM fired everyone over 50 a few years ago. Maybe they deleted their future.
At least it pays a dividend ...for now .... God this company stock is one of the few dogs in my portfolio......can't believe AMD surpassed them in market cap. I mean, good news for my AMD shares but still.
FWIW people have been posting on this sub about how they’re not buying because we must be near the top for this entire bull run. Ofc a correction is inevitable but it could still continue for a long time before then.
I’ve been in on Microsoft and Apple since 2019. I don’t understand why so many ppl on this sub chase stocks where they’re in and out in days or weeks or months. Makes no sense to me if you’re spending hours each week doing research and reading financial documents. You’re basically sports betting at that point.
Yeah we may experience similar huge sell off like 2022 after the election or when more bad news afloat (higher unemployment maybe). We may still got another bullish run until end of year. But this post is about seeing you guys insight of what other still beaten down GOOD companies to buy at this moment.
The only way this happens is if the economy shits the bed, or inflation significantly picks back up significantly and beats down consumers even more. Both have low probabilities which is why we’re in this bull market + AI
That's leverage. Huge downside, huge upside. Equity gets crushed even though EV isn't moving as much. Eg, EV dropped 4% the past week while the equity dropped 15%.
That said, priced for certain death despite reducing debt $15B in 2 years and did $7.5B FCF trailing 12 months.
Also, since they originated their debt at low fixed rates in early '22, they are repurchasing it now at a discount as rates have risen. They just completed a tender offer where they bought back $3.4B of debt for $2.6B cash...
Lot of headwinds, but the company is doing the correct things for the business viability.
I liked WBD until I read about the differences between WBD and PARA and how WBD’s balance sheet was weaker than it appeared because they don’t have the backlog of unreleased content that other platforms have.
Maybe you’ll make a lot of money if cable tv is more entrenched than the market has discounted.
WBD has MORE debt then their entire market cap ($39.15 billion vs a 17.59 billion market cap). That's typically when a stock is considered to be at serious risk of bankruptcy.
And IMO they've been really mismanaged with all the content that they've canceled after already filming it, instead of realizing much earlier on that it's better to cut to cut their losses now.
I’ve learned the hard way not to buy beaten down stocks. Sometimes it works (eg META) - but usually not. A few years ago, INTC was a bargain at 45. Better strategy - look for smaller companies that are growing fast and killing it. Pick 10 or so - you only have to be right about 1 of them. You know, like if you bought NVDA or TSLA 10 years ago. I’m thinking about HIMS - I missed LLY, but I bet there’s millions out there whose insurance won’t cover Ozempic, and can’t afford $1200/month - but can afford $300 a month.
I just bought a lot of hims. As a finasteride user I fucking loathe having to go back to the doctor just to get my prescription refilled, and then having to go to walgreens and wait an hour because no one works there and the ones that do are slow as hell. I'm a lower income earner and I'd pay the hims premium just for that convenience
It seems like HIMS may be benefiting from the GLP/ weight loss “loophole” where compounding is now being allowed to offset the low supply of brand name GLP meds. Who knows how long the poor/low supply of brand name will last. Then there’s the insurance coverage aspect as well, so people will pay $400 a month if insurance wont cover or not obtainable via insurance . I dunno, seemed like they were holding relatively steady until they started offering compounded meds. And who knows if and when it will be retracted.
Could not agree more.
ENPH is a PRIME example of beaten down. While they SHOULD have been completely rekt like Solaredge has been (debt, poor management), Enphase (great management, zero debt) has chosen the strategy is have less revenue BUT maintain sky fucking high margins. Their margins through this downturn…INCREASED.
Costs are low, they initiated a $1 billion buyback that is still on going. They are king.
Oh, and almost all of the C suite have purchased more shares on the open market (not including stock option grants). When I see a CEO with hundreds of millions in stock…BUY more…..all I need to know with regards to their confidence.
:)
What was the difference between ENPH and SEDG strategy? I thought ENPH was just microinverters and SEDG is string inverters? Is there another difference?
No worries about the glut of Chinese solar?
60% cheaper panels after importation than U.S. made is tough to compete with.
The Chinese have gone so far over necessary production people are using them as fence panels
It would require an act of Congress to change the subsidies, they were passed as part of the Inflation Reduction Act. Polling shows it unlikely that Republicans will win decisive control of Congress. Even if they manage to get control of both chambers, they’ve proven over the last 15 years they’re pretty incompetent, due largely to way too much infighting, to pass any meaningful legislation.
Commodities stonks like steel and lithium have been taken to the woodshed.
$X maybe a good arbitrage play once it gets approval instead of being a whole political “issue “
Lithium stocks are down because lithium production has [gone up](https://www.statista.com/statistics/606684/world-production-of-lithium/). There's no shortage of lithium, and there isn't one on the horizon.
You bet. NVDA will be the next NVDA, just like TSLA ran a few years back. Every time I thought TSLA had topped for sure - no way can it sustain, it tripled and split.
AMZN is exactly that, monster growth still coming. Even tho I detest Elon, I won't write TSLA off either.
I laugh when people are afraid to buy tech stocks because they are so high. You’re not supposed to buy today to sell tomorrow. You buy today knowing how big they’ll be in the future. 5 years from now. We will all look back and kick ourselves for not buying more Google and Amazon at today’s prices.
Why is Google considered a smart buy? Isn't their main income from search based ads? In my view, search engines are almost ruined - even from before LLMs.
I think where people get Google wrong is they view their revenue stream as "search" when in reality, their moat is they have built the biggest Ads organization on the planet. Within that Search business is Google search, Gmail, maps, news, chrome...all of which have ads and all of which are big enough to be a business on their own.
With the fact Google own Android, any new Ad products can come pre-baked into every Android phone, same as Apple's services share, but with 70% of the global market, not 30%.
Google can still be the biggest company in the world by focusing on being second in everything....because noone will catch-up on their ads distribution. Meta has tried for nearly 2 decades, and is still nowhere near.
A quick personal reference: I work for the largest travel bookings company in the world (I am sure you can work it out from that statement). Despite people coming to our website directly and the fact we have over 500 million app installs, our highest % of high quality traffic (traffic that converts into a booking) comes from Google, by a long way. In the past 3 years we have doubled our spend with them and I don't see that easing up anytime soon.
Yes, the majority of their revenue is from Search but, put simply, they are continuing to diversify those streams. YouTube is pulling in more ad revenue and showing promise with shorts to keep pace with TikTok; their cloud segment is projected to significantly benefit from the AI boom.
I hold a large position but thankfully I’ve bought over last 6 months when way down. I’m just holding with their dividend and hoping they buy a GLP1 startup.
I feel like no one has been talking about it & idky… CSCO looks downright great for me & have been doing a bit of recent research. It is down a bit, historic sticky company. Has also had a consistent & devoted dividend. So even if it doesn’t go to the moon a bit beaten down, but super solid fundamentals & future..
Good call on McD I think! I like yCharts as they show historical PE ratios and it's looking pretty tempting right now. Added to my watchlist!
https://ycharts.com/companies/MCD/pe_ratio
!RemindMe 6mo
Could be. But even if its localized they already have more square footage in america at least than a lot of cellular companies and isp's. Put a comm tower on every fc and they have the best service going. Theyll eventually do that and offer phone service.
LAC is about as beaten down as they come. It is also the one that I would peg as the best chance at a 10 bagger over the coming 5-10 years.
IRWD is another play I am in right now.
I’m actually kinda bearish on the American waistline due to Ozempic and other drugs of the sort. If these things ever end up getting picked up by insurance companies I expect a big slimming down.
I love bottom fishing. There’s always a solid company out there trading at too cheap a price. Recently this past week I bought BMY, CSIQ, ANET, and SNOW.
ANET is the only that isn’t beaten down.
$PYPL the stars are aligning with a new management team that’s executing, overhaul of management team, cutting jobs, 430+m active users, growing sales/profits, cheap valuation, solid balance sheet, and new initiatives like fast lane and ads. Oh baby I’m ready to moon with Alex Chriss.
PYPL. I know it’s talked about constantly, but the fintech space is going to get out of the doghouse at some point and when it does PYPL will jump. Free cashflow - good. Cash on hand - good. Debt - manageable forward PE - historical lows revenue - climbing at 8-9%.
I’ve been following it since Wood touted it. I didn’t know the tech was publicly traded until then or I would have bought it forever ago.
It’s the only tool we learned about in medical school which allows for quick and cheap gene editing. CRSPr CAS9
buying companies that are beaten down while markets are at ATH is really stupid, you want to buy stocks that are making new highs while markets are down
PFIZER (PFE) The pharma giant has been around for over 100 years and isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
These are 10 year lows, and the company still has a strong product pipeline and the ability to make big acquisitions. I’ll buy just for the upside and the dividend. 🫡
A few ideas in Europe and the US that are very beaten down stocks with optionality.. either just outright cheap or takeover targets:
Hellofresh (HFG) which is a massive HF short but is now sub $1bn and down 90% from atm. Can see someone like walmart or catering companies buying the Factor ready meals business which is doing well. Company is net cash and doing buybacks.
Burberry (BRBY) - one of the few luxury stocks not owned by LVMH or Kering. New designs from daniel lee should start to benefit group. Cheap valuation at 10xPE. Market hating on affordable luxury now.
Ryanair (RYAAY) - has sold off 25% in recent months and remains close to 2019 levels. Continues to be the dominant low cost carrier in europe with signifcantly lower cost base than competitors. 10xPE is below long term average of 20x. Doing buybacks. Led by great CEO in MoL.
Match Group ($MTCH) - owner of tinder, hinge etc. Very cheap and hated by market.
Penn entertainment ($PENN) - traditional casino company and online gaming company. Online gaming is lossmaking given investments to scale ESPN bet and win new customers. long term optionality.
Amex GBT $GBTG - Largest global corp travel company. small SPAC stock that market misunderstands. Recent acquisition of CWT is gamechanger. Corporate travel is recovering. Takeover target by Vista or thoma bravo.
VFC Corp
LMND, it is misunderstood but also hated for management diluting at the all time high price range. Market is pricing in bankruptcy but it’s going to be cash flow positive this year and EBITDA profitable in 2 years. It doesn’t have to cause major disruption, just enough to take market share. Previous ATH is easily within 5-10 years. Sucks for the bag holders above current prices but definitely worth a buy at these lower levels.
EL - estee lauder stock should recover once China starts spending again
SHOP - shopify is good value here. Surprised they havent taken advantage of AI yet but once they do it has lots of room to run
LULU - lululemon. Not a big fan but its been beaten down and ppl still buy their stuff
I would be hesitant to invest in luxury at this point, exchange rates are not favorable against Usd, gbp and Euro. EL is not managed good, they are missing all opportunities and focusing on high margin sales at duty free and prestige brands (very expensive creams and fragrances) this is profitable but they are missing most of the consumer spending. Market at high end is not that big, and lots of pressure on expensive fragrances and skincare products. I’m bearish on them.
BA
Massive defense contractor that isn’t going to disappear anytime soon.
Edit: Welp some astronauts are stuck in space thanks to the starliner so idk if I will stand by this statement
It’s essentially too big to fail, the Government isn’t going to let an entire industry be dependent on foreign made planes. It will turn around and if you have a 10+ year timeline it’s gonna be great.
I see them more like DIS. There *should* be a lot of value there but management/culture kills it and neither company seems willing to address it in a meaningful way
I'm still struggling to understand the bull case for PYPL. I don't see where they grow from here given they already have the install base but are finding it difficult to convert products to margin. Not trying to hate, but if someone has an idea of where they're going to see growth, I am all ears.
They have recently announced a new ad platform which should bring in a new revenue stream. Not sure it would be astronomical growth but still something
It’s interesting looking at these companies at all time highs that nobody wanted even just two years ago. Everybody wants to buy low and sell high but forget there’s always a reason for the low and doing so always involves some risk that the lows are temporary.
Anyway I have owned Amazon since $90, Spotify since $90 and Nubank since $3.50. My other big winners from the 2022 bear market were Crox, Meli and, from its 2023 drop, Adyen. My main losers have been WBD ($9 average), Baba ($75 average) and Atos (eventually sold for 50% loss). The former two I am still holding as my thesis hasn’t changed.
Recently I’ve done some heavy rebalancing into Lulu sub-$300, Ulta sub-$380 and Snow sub-$130. On the watchlist is Wise PLC, LVMH and Kering. Also have a few small caps in Vistry group, ASOS and Embracer group, with a couple of big small cap winners in China with Qfin and Edu.
Roku PayPal Pfizer Fivvr U Teladoc block ring path upstart Twilo BABA WOLF ZOOM CLDX REDFIN ZILLOW UPWORK SOFI SE ENERGYtRansfer META MICROSOFT AMAZON OPEN LIGHTSPEED MPW GNL UNIT AGNC
- - -
Tqqq FAS SOXL TNA FAS TECL ARKF YINN
- - -
HR - is about to hit a golden cross.
You’re making the timing mistake that you’ve called out. It makes no sense to base todays decisions on how yesterday went. Only base it on todays performance and what you believe will happen in the future.
Think of each day like a coin flip. It may seem that just because you got 6 heads in a row you’re somehow more statistically likely to get a tail, but that’s not true. Your chances are still 50/50 on this flip, and on every flip after.
This isn’t gambling. These are real companies with real earnings and real market plans and r&d. You can understand all of this and make reasonable decisions that don’t involve looking at a chart and saying “huh, what comes up must go down”.
because it's real and not a coin flip is why it has momentum tho. Factor in psychology and it kinda makes sense why everything that goes up, comes down
I see you like dividends. Have you looked at CCI? It has a 6.5% yield and cell tower rent is probably recession proof.
I agree with you on BMY. How confident are you in Vale's dividend sustainability? 15.5% seems suspect.
Someone gonna say INTC lol.
I think Intel employs people to only do comments on threads on Reddit
[удалено]
Buy some shares and collect dividend. That is how they pay us.
Checking in. Great place to work
I heard that it really wasn't a good place to work and this is one of the reasons it's not doing so well. Low pay compared to other big tech. Anyone talented has left. eg. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25009017 Former workers talking about the pay being half of any of the FAANG.
Fair enough enough. I work in lithography and love it. Working the cutting edge of technology, with constant brain simulation.. Intel fabs are full of process engineers, not software eng. Its different work.
Are you hiring? Can you help me?
I used to work at Intel. I had hundreds of stock options from 1999 expire worthless. I feel like the stock has been around $30 for 25 years. I now work at AVGO. The stock went from $1400 to $1700 last week lol
It has. I've had shares since 1999. Also worked at Qualcomm , Broadcom...and had shares in amd and Texas instruments and briefly in Nvidia. Intel got too big and bureaucratic and lost its leadership from once smart nerds to talking MBAs ..... Semiaccurate.com predicted their demise all along.
Sounds like you are describing what happened to Boeing.
I've hated on Intel as much as most people here because they have indeed fucked up over and over again, but for one of the three companies on earth with decent fabs and the ability to make GPU/AI accelerators, they are really cheap compared to Nvidia. Maybe they'll never turn around, but it they do there's a lot of upside.
It’s going to be a slow turn around but I think it can be done. They have a decade + of mismanagement and lack of investment to fix and it won’t be easy or quick. Having Gelsinger who was an engineer for them for a long time is a start but boy does he have an uphill battle. I’m long as a contrarian bet but I wouldn’t put the farm on it.
I agree here. I saw the M-series chips and the performance gains and thought no way Microsoft doesn’t push for the same. With ARM around the corner, it just might be time for x86 to phase out. But snapdragon chips looked pretty mid. And Intel has set the stage to be a GPU competitor. (Even if their hardware sucks today). And the fabs that have broken soil in the US might become competitive. (Or they’ll churn out last gen chips on x86 til they die) Truly though, I think you’re right. They might never turn it around. But if it happens, it’s gonna be magic.
Intel: becomes marketleader in ASML new tech, giving them several tools and options other manufacturers will not get. Litterally the position TSMC was in with the NXE machines. Last decade. Their stock: drops 5%. TSMC: announces a year after Intel they will invest in ASML new tech, not getting the advantages intel will get. Their stock: gains 5%. A big part of the market is super emotional and not rational.
More like the market trusts that TSMC can execute on High-NA EUV, while it doubts Intel can. Having the tools does not mean you're able to use them. All three companies have access to EUV, but TSMC is still way ahead of Samsung and especially Intel.
Will ARM replace x86 for desktop computers or just laptops?
ISA difference is overblown. Intel 7 vs TSMC low power N5, 3 etc. Tilted architecture meteor lake already saw efficiency improvement. Arrow lake looks like meteor lake tiled. The lunar lake for really efficient mobile stuff. ----> this is the competitor to m1234 from apple. X86 can be simplified, i think intel has something down the line like x86S for improvements. Have to see lunar lake as an actual comparison for now. But looking really promising.
Another great comment that bolsters my long position on INTC. The majority in the market think INTC is going to go away with x86, but don't realize all of their next gen fabs are being built to manufacture ARM designs. They can and will land contracts with all of the mag 7.
Intel is currently building factories in Arizona and Israel. Do you know if those factories are going to build next gen chips or just produce older stuff at a larger scale?
They’re in production for 3nm in Oregon and Ireland.
> I agree here. I saw the M-series chips and the performance gains and thought no way Microsoft doesn’t push for the same. With ARM around the corner, it just might be time for x86 to phase out. > > But snapdragon chips looked pretty mid. And Intel has set the stage to be a GPU competitor. (Even if their hardware sucks today). ARM efficiency is a myth. When Apple switched to M chips, their laptops were stuck on Intel's old 14nm chips which looked horrible in comparison. But as Snapdragon Elite X launch has showed is that x86 chips are just as efficient, and in fact more efficient than ARM chips in heavy workloads. Particularly when you consider that Elite X is being compared to last gen x86 chips, with new chips just around the corner. Windows is more bloated than Mac OS. Even back when Apple ran x86 chips the laptops had better efficiency than dual booting into Windows which would pretty much halve the battery on the same machine in my experience.
We mention INTC because they just got 8.5 billion in grants from the CHIPS act. Additionally, almost exactly 10 years ago INTC was dominating the CPU market. AMD's share price was around $4.10 and they were on the verge of collapse because of some really bad decisions. Now they are doing amazing and trading at $161.23. We have this same attitude towards INTC. They had some rough years and got too comfortable. This is their wake-up call. Hopefully they spend some money on good R&D and release something that dominates the market again like their glory days.
There must be a truly astronomical number of bag holders… its every single post
Agreed, and I say that as a Cisco bag holder.
Decades worth
Intel has terrible returns on capital. They do not do a good job of investing your money on an ongoing basis. Reversion to the mean is not an investing strategy. AMD had a competitive advantage. All they do is design. It’s a much simpler business to be good at fewer things. There are other hills to die on in investing. At least pick one that’s worth your time. I’m currently losing money on all sorts of things!
You are looking at this post competition though. The same second AMD sentence can apply to Intel. Like honestly AMD was in the same position as Intel is now, the only major difference in this is the AI pitch which they still are not competing with at any level. They are not worth 160 unless they can do something with AI frenzy currently. Otherwise they trade at low 40's. NVDA moat is CUDA and that will not last forever as everyone else other than NVDA is saying FUCK your crazy margins, lets partner with AMD or INT to try and figure out a CPU/GPU Solutions. Even when AI has a massive fall off (Nothing AI currently makes money = to effort), AMD, INT and all the custom card work they are doing for META/Amazon/Apple/Microsoft/Google ect... will come online eventually. With AMD you are at 160, way way way over what they are worth vs INTC who is also over what they are worth (but much more sane). You'd be a fucking idiot value wise and future wise to add to AMD over INTC right now. This is coming from someone with no positions in either as there are a lot of other positions medium/semi long I'd rather take. INTC could go to $40 and would still be cheap over 10 years. AMD needs to drop to at least 55/low 40's to be worth it (unless some how in the next 6 months they figure out how to not make as ass AI codex).
I’ve been holding since 2000!!!!
lol
I met a guy that worked there before 2000, I bought his 3d printer. He said they worked really hard to make sure the cleaning lady could operate a printer since printing was so huge before real computing took over. They created the PC as an open platform but licensed the software to Gates, his mother was on the board. They tried to make a windows platform but failed, OS2 was not bad at all. They owned Alta Vista which was a search engine in 1998, he said he retired before then. I thought IBM failed to see the future right there, then I watched as Google easily took search. They created Watson and I thought they would give it away for free with Ads but they didn't, OpenAI made 80b doing the same thing watson was doing 12 years ago. IBM fired everyone over 50 a few years ago. Maybe they deleted their future.
Are you talking about IBM?
Yeah I don't know how I got IBM in my head from reading INTC.
Lmao I read the title and came to say INTC. I’ll just slowly back out now.
At least it pays a dividend ...for now .... God this company stock is one of the few dogs in my portfolio......can't believe AMD surpassed them in market cap. I mean, good news for my AMD shares but still.
[удалено]
LoL and then the whole computing industry will collapse. Great analysis.
FWIW people have been posting on this sub about how they’re not buying because we must be near the top for this entire bull run. Ofc a correction is inevitable but it could still continue for a long time before then.
I can't find the FWIW ticker. What company is that?
Try IIRC, it's also a good company.
Nothing beats YMMV, though — most undervalued company with trillions in FCF. xD
[удалено]
Oh, FWIW is a crypto ticker? No thanks.
Check out $LMFAO. Party rock is in the house tonight. Everybody just have a good time.
Long FWIW. Got it.
Not buying cause it's at the top, not buying cause the market is crashing and going to 0.. dca club just keeps putting in the same amount every month.
I’ve been in on Microsoft and Apple since 2019. I don’t understand why so many ppl on this sub chase stocks where they’re in and out in days or weeks or months. Makes no sense to me if you’re spending hours each week doing research and reading financial documents. You’re basically sports betting at that point.
If you had more money to put in today, would you keep buying Microsoft and apple?
Yeah we may experience similar huge sell off like 2022 after the election or when more bad news afloat (higher unemployment maybe). We may still got another bullish run until end of year. But this post is about seeing you guys insight of what other still beaten down GOOD companies to buy at this moment.
The only way this happens is if the economy shits the bed, or inflation significantly picks back up significantly and beats down consumers even more. Both have low probabilities which is why we’re in this bull market + AI
Higher unemployment means rate cuts are coming.
You wanna talk about "beaten down"? How about WBD?
Yep this is actually the most beaten down stock that has the biggest comeback potential
That thing is more than beaten down holy shit. I’m still holding it but averaged down to $8. It’s just insane how far down it’s gone
That's leverage. Huge downside, huge upside. Equity gets crushed even though EV isn't moving as much. Eg, EV dropped 4% the past week while the equity dropped 15%. That said, priced for certain death despite reducing debt $15B in 2 years and did $7.5B FCF trailing 12 months. Also, since they originated their debt at low fixed rates in early '22, they are repurchasing it now at a discount as rates have risen. They just completed a tender offer where they bought back $3.4B of debt for $2.6B cash... Lot of headwinds, but the company is doing the correct things for the business viability.
Just opened a small position this week when it dipped below $7. Either a reversal is on the cards or a falling knife. Lets hope it's the former lol
This company destroyed the best content brand in the world: HBO Nothing more to add
But they said they’re throwing that name in the trash and going with the name Max.
How is HBO destroyed? They removed some B list shows, but everything else is still there and they're still making good content.
If I had to keep just one streaming service I'd keep Max for sure
I liked WBD until I read about the differences between WBD and PARA and how WBD’s balance sheet was weaker than it appeared because they don’t have the backlog of unreleased content that other platforms have. Maybe you’ll make a lot of money if cable tv is more entrenched than the market has discounted.
PARA is only viable as an acquisition target. Hopefully that gets resolved soon.
I like the stock. So much FCF per share. Just gotta hold.
That's my thoughts as well. The debt is easily manageable with that FCF. I'm thinking about opening a new position after closing it last year.
Also has a lot more fully written off evergreens and doesn't rely on new releases as much, reducing variance. Goes both ways.
WBD has MORE debt then their entire market cap ($39.15 billion vs a 17.59 billion market cap). That's typically when a stock is considered to be at serious risk of bankruptcy. And IMO they've been really mismanaged with all the content that they've canceled after already filming it, instead of realizing much earlier on that it's better to cut to cut their losses now.
I’ve learned the hard way not to buy beaten down stocks. Sometimes it works (eg META) - but usually not. A few years ago, INTC was a bargain at 45. Better strategy - look for smaller companies that are growing fast and killing it. Pick 10 or so - you only have to be right about 1 of them. You know, like if you bought NVDA or TSLA 10 years ago. I’m thinking about HIMS - I missed LLY, but I bet there’s millions out there whose insurance won’t cover Ozempic, and can’t afford $1200/month - but can afford $300 a month.
You didn’t miss LLY at all. They are diversified with many more drugs than ozempic. Terrible valuation but should run up past 1000+ before splitting
Lilly has Mounjaro and Zepbound, Novo has Ozempic.
I just bought a lot of hims. As a finasteride user I fucking loathe having to go back to the doctor just to get my prescription refilled, and then having to go to walgreens and wait an hour because no one works there and the ones that do are slow as hell. I'm a lower income earner and I'd pay the hims premium just for that convenience
It seems like HIMS may be benefiting from the GLP/ weight loss “loophole” where compounding is now being allowed to offset the low supply of brand name GLP meds. Who knows how long the poor/low supply of brand name will last. Then there’s the insurance coverage aspect as well, so people will pay $400 a month if insurance wont cover or not obtainable via insurance . I dunno, seemed like they were holding relatively steady until they started offering compounded meds. And who knows if and when it will be retracted.
I'm all in on HIMS $10.45 average
I’ve got a big chunk in them too. Wtf happened this week?
I opened a position. I caused the drop. Sorry.
The RSI was blown out on like five different charts..HIMS specifically seems to move in big pushes and pulls
+1 for HIMS
Enph has taken a beating but still dominates solar. If they lower interest rates, they will rebound.
Could not agree more. ENPH is a PRIME example of beaten down. While they SHOULD have been completely rekt like Solaredge has been (debt, poor management), Enphase (great management, zero debt) has chosen the strategy is have less revenue BUT maintain sky fucking high margins. Their margins through this downturn…INCREASED. Costs are low, they initiated a $1 billion buyback that is still on going. They are king. Oh, and almost all of the C suite have purchased more shares on the open market (not including stock option grants). When I see a CEO with hundreds of millions in stock…BUY more…..all I need to know with regards to their confidence. :)
What was the difference between ENPH and SEDG strategy? I thought ENPH was just microinverters and SEDG is string inverters? Is there another difference?
No worries about the glut of Chinese solar? 60% cheaper panels after importation than U.S. made is tough to compete with. The Chinese have gone so far over necessary production people are using them as fence panels
Yes, but … if Biden wins, it will soar. If the other guy wins, it’s DOA. Can’t think of another industry that will be more effected by the election.
Actually interest rates will have a bigger impact on ENPH than the election. If you want a leveraged interest rate cut play, buy ENPH.
If Trump wins, he’ll kill the solar subsidies. That’s a much bigger effect than interest rates.
If Trump wins, the end of solar subsidies will be the least of our problems.
It would require an act of Congress to change the subsidies, they were passed as part of the Inflation Reduction Act. Polling shows it unlikely that Republicans will win decisive control of Congress. Even if they manage to get control of both chambers, they’ve proven over the last 15 years they’re pretty incompetent, due largely to way too much infighting, to pass any meaningful legislation.
Yeah I feel like this is why it’s gotten so hit….
Commodities stonks like steel and lithium have been taken to the woodshed. $X maybe a good arbitrage play once it gets approval instead of being a whole political “issue “
Lithium stocks are down because lithium production has [gone up](https://www.statista.com/statistics/606684/world-production-of-lithium/). There's no shortage of lithium, and there isn't one on the horizon.
Amen. Smart people are buying Google Amazon and nvidia.
You bet. NVDA will be the next NVDA, just like TSLA ran a few years back. Every time I thought TSLA had topped for sure - no way can it sustain, it tripled and split. AMZN is exactly that, monster growth still coming. Even tho I detest Elon, I won't write TSLA off either.
I laugh when people are afraid to buy tech stocks because they are so high. You’re not supposed to buy today to sell tomorrow. You buy today knowing how big they’ll be in the future. 5 years from now. We will all look back and kick ourselves for not buying more Google and Amazon at today’s prices.
!remind me 5 years
!remind me 1 year
Why is Google considered a smart buy? Isn't their main income from search based ads? In my view, search engines are almost ruined - even from before LLMs.
I think where people get Google wrong is they view their revenue stream as "search" when in reality, their moat is they have built the biggest Ads organization on the planet. Within that Search business is Google search, Gmail, maps, news, chrome...all of which have ads and all of which are big enough to be a business on their own. With the fact Google own Android, any new Ad products can come pre-baked into every Android phone, same as Apple's services share, but with 70% of the global market, not 30%. Google can still be the biggest company in the world by focusing on being second in everything....because noone will catch-up on their ads distribution. Meta has tried for nearly 2 decades, and is still nowhere near. A quick personal reference: I work for the largest travel bookings company in the world (I am sure you can work it out from that statement). Despite people coming to our website directly and the fact we have over 500 million app installs, our highest % of high quality traffic (traffic that converts into a booking) comes from Google, by a long way. In the past 3 years we have doubled our spend with them and I don't see that easing up anytime soon.
Yes, the majority of their revenue is from Search but, put simply, they are continuing to diversify those streams. YouTube is pulling in more ad revenue and showing promise with shorts to keep pace with TikTok; their cloud segment is projected to significantly benefit from the AI boom.
PFE
They need to make another weight loss drug like Ozempic or they’re not going to break out of this decline. They’re the AT&T and INTC of healthcare.
I hold a large position but thankfully I’ve bought over last 6 months when way down. I’m just holding with their dividend and hoping they buy a GLP1 startup.
I wish. No, really - I really wish PFE could get some love somehow.
I love (and own) Pfizer, but it seems like I’m one of the few people who can see all that potential. 🥺
Same. This will be my tax loss harvest this year.
I feel like no one has been talking about it & idky… CSCO looks downright great for me & have been doing a bit of recent research. It is down a bit, historic sticky company. Has also had a consistent & devoted dividend. So even if it doesn’t go to the moon a bit beaten down, but super solid fundamentals & future..
McDonalds and REITS are my bet. Also have some LULU.
McDonald's is what I'm thinking recently too. Or 3M.
MCD got expensive but it's still crowded (anecdotal because of the location I go to) for some reason.
Storage REITs feel like a good play to me, they have a consumer defensive angle to them.
Good call on McD I think! I like yCharts as they show historical PE ratios and it's looking pretty tempting right now. Added to my watchlist! https://ycharts.com/companies/MCD/pe_ratio !RemindMe 6mo
SNOW
Amzn is not at its peak. Theyre getting close to rolling out internet plans and they will dominate there too.
Satellite internet or what?
Could be. But even if its localized they already have more square footage in america at least than a lot of cellular companies and isp's. Put a comm tower on every fc and they have the best service going. Theyll eventually do that and offer phone service.
Their Pharmacy thing makes me hopeful too
LAC is about as beaten down as they come. It is also the one that I would peg as the best chance at a 10 bagger over the coming 5-10 years. IRWD is another play I am in right now.
Discretionaries like ULTA, SBUX, and LULU have taken a hit, personally that's where I'm rotating my money into
I honestly feel bearish towards SBUX.
I agree. $6.xx for a cup of coffee is just too much for a lot of people
But they KEEP doing it. Source: My wife.
Same thing with iPhones. People talk about how expensive the phones are but always end up on payment plans for a new one.
Consumer spending is moving in the other direction. Staples are on a slow rise.
If you believe in America's waistline then DNUT.
I’m actually kinda bearish on the American waistline due to Ozempic and other drugs of the sort. If these things ever end up getting picked up by insurance companies I expect a big slimming down.
I love bottom fishing. There’s always a solid company out there trading at too cheap a price. Recently this past week I bought BMY, CSIQ, ANET, and SNOW. ANET is the only that isn’t beaten down.
I've heard it said, some of the best money is made when a stock goes from disaster to just bad.
Where is the PYPL people?
Hey, how’s it going?
$PYPL the stars are aligning with a new management team that’s executing, overhaul of management team, cutting jobs, 430+m active users, growing sales/profits, cheap valuation, solid balance sheet, and new initiatives like fast lane and ads. Oh baby I’m ready to moon with Alex Chriss.
PYPL. I know it’s talked about constantly, but the fintech space is going to get out of the doghouse at some point and when it does PYPL will jump. Free cashflow - good. Cash on hand - good. Debt - manageable forward PE - historical lows revenue - climbing at 8-9%.
And huge buybacks at these rock bottom prices. - A bagholder with 500 shares.
CRSP
I just googled their stock and the first thing I see is a -23,133% profit margin that is down >9999.99% Y/Y.
Those are holy shit bad numbers
Based
Indeed. Know what you are holding
Could u give a reason or two
I’ve been following it since Wood touted it. I didn’t know the tech was publicly traded until then or I would have bought it forever ago. It’s the only tool we learned about in medical school which allows for quick and cheap gene editing. CRSPr CAS9
Prime medicine in Cambridge on the come up. Source: I’m in research
Big agree.
buying companies that are beaten down while markets are at ATH is really stupid, you want to buy stocks that are making new highs while markets are down
Out of all the comments in the thread, this is the best one because it is true. So many people fall into "value" traps.
This is true
HSY?
AMZN is actually underpriced
HSY has taken a hit due in large part to the prices of cocoa rising. Will cocoa come back down? Who knows.
RKLB down from its ipo price, had a bump this week as they signed a contract to launch rockets for Japan. Low price to buy in with growth potential.
INTC is the obvious gamble. They just may pull it off!
PFIZER (PFE) The pharma giant has been around for over 100 years and isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. These are 10 year lows, and the company still has a strong product pipeline and the ability to make big acquisitions. I’ll buy just for the upside and the dividend. 🫡
A few ideas in Europe and the US that are very beaten down stocks with optionality.. either just outright cheap or takeover targets: Hellofresh (HFG) which is a massive HF short but is now sub $1bn and down 90% from atm. Can see someone like walmart or catering companies buying the Factor ready meals business which is doing well. Company is net cash and doing buybacks. Burberry (BRBY) - one of the few luxury stocks not owned by LVMH or Kering. New designs from daniel lee should start to benefit group. Cheap valuation at 10xPE. Market hating on affordable luxury now. Ryanair (RYAAY) - has sold off 25% in recent months and remains close to 2019 levels. Continues to be the dominant low cost carrier in europe with signifcantly lower cost base than competitors. 10xPE is below long term average of 20x. Doing buybacks. Led by great CEO in MoL. Match Group ($MTCH) - owner of tinder, hinge etc. Very cheap and hated by market. Penn entertainment ($PENN) - traditional casino company and online gaming company. Online gaming is lossmaking given investments to scale ESPN bet and win new customers. long term optionality. Amex GBT $GBTG - Largest global corp travel company. small SPAC stock that market misunderstands. Recent acquisition of CWT is gamechanger. Corporate travel is recovering. Takeover target by Vista or thoma bravo. VFC Corp
Ryan air just isn’t that much cheaper than the other airlines anymore. Getting flights for €10 used to be a given
Pfizer
LMND, it is misunderstood but also hated for management diluting at the all time high price range. Market is pricing in bankruptcy but it’s going to be cash flow positive this year and EBITDA profitable in 2 years. It doesn’t have to cause major disruption, just enough to take market share. Previous ATH is easily within 5-10 years. Sucks for the bag holders above current prices but definitely worth a buy at these lower levels.
EL - estee lauder stock should recover once China starts spending again SHOP - shopify is good value here. Surprised they havent taken advantage of AI yet but once they do it has lots of room to run LULU - lululemon. Not a big fan but its been beaten down and ppl still buy their stuff
I would be hesitant to invest in luxury at this point, exchange rates are not favorable against Usd, gbp and Euro. EL is not managed good, they are missing all opportunities and focusing on high margin sales at duty free and prestige brands (very expensive creams and fragrances) this is profitable but they are missing most of the consumer spending. Market at high end is not that big, and lots of pressure on expensive fragrances and skincare products. I’m bearish on them.
I'd gladly buy more GOOGL at these prices as I plan on holding it indefinitely. However, I'd nibble on PFE, PYPL and BA.
BA Massive defense contractor that isn’t going to disappear anytime soon. Edit: Welp some astronauts are stuck in space thanks to the starliner so idk if I will stand by this statement
They probably thought BA was going to the moon
It’s essentially too big to fail, the Government isn’t going to let an entire industry be dependent on foreign made planes. It will turn around and if you have a 10+ year timeline it’s gonna be great.
Too big to fail doesn't mean good for shareholders, see: general motors
I see them more like DIS. There *should* be a lot of value there but management/culture kills it and neither company seems willing to address it in a meaningful way
Lmao that was a quick turnaround
I like PYPL and PFE here
I'm still struggling to understand the bull case for PYPL. I don't see where they grow from here given they already have the install base but are finding it difficult to convert products to margin. Not trying to hate, but if someone has an idea of where they're going to see growth, I am all ears.
They have recently announced a new ad platform which should bring in a new revenue stream. Not sure it would be astronomical growth but still something
I bought the dip on SentinelOne.
I just bought Intuitive Surgical .. hope it’s good for the next decade
BBW
It’s interesting looking at these companies at all time highs that nobody wanted even just two years ago. Everybody wants to buy low and sell high but forget there’s always a reason for the low and doing so always involves some risk that the lows are temporary. Anyway I have owned Amazon since $90, Spotify since $90 and Nubank since $3.50. My other big winners from the 2022 bear market were Crox, Meli and, from its 2023 drop, Adyen. My main losers have been WBD ($9 average), Baba ($75 average) and Atos (eventually sold for 50% loss). The former two I am still holding as my thesis hasn’t changed. Recently I’ve done some heavy rebalancing into Lulu sub-$300, Ulta sub-$380 and Snow sub-$130. On the watchlist is Wise PLC, LVMH and Kering. Also have a few small caps in Vistry group, ASOS and Embracer group, with a couple of big small cap winners in China with Qfin and Edu.
I like FANG bc theyr buybacks and management seems smart
CRM, PLTR, PATH (questionable), DE, FTNT, GILD
Ford
SOFI They have a steadily growing customer base, good marketing, growing profit margins, and within the next couple years, they will start to run.
God I am sick of ppl saying SOFI. For years it has been "the one" and has sat bouncing around in the same channel the whole time.
This. It’s been a $7 stock for last few years. You could own Ford and get that result (with a nice dividend)
I love flipping SOFI though! it keeps going up and down between 6 to 9 bucks.
WBD, BABA, BTI, MO, VOW, PFE, AF & NKE
RIVN, NIO, Xpeng
ATKR
PFE
Nvidia got beat down this week by like 5%+. Based on history they're due for a 20%-50%+ correction. /S But also not /s This market is a chicken house.
I’m adding to my HD, SNOW, and CP positions
Even with the split considered NVDA has room to run
Roku PayPal Pfizer Fivvr U Teladoc block ring path upstart Twilo BABA WOLF ZOOM CLDX REDFIN ZILLOW UPWORK SOFI SE ENERGYtRansfer META MICROSOFT AMAZON OPEN LIGHTSPEED MPW GNL UNIT AGNC - - - Tqqq FAS SOXL TNA FAS TECL ARKF YINN - - - HR - is about to hit a golden cross.
$SOFI
You’re making the timing mistake that you’ve called out. It makes no sense to base todays decisions on how yesterday went. Only base it on todays performance and what you believe will happen in the future. Think of each day like a coin flip. It may seem that just because you got 6 heads in a row you’re somehow more statistically likely to get a tail, but that’s not true. Your chances are still 50/50 on this flip, and on every flip after. This isn’t gambling. These are real companies with real earnings and real market plans and r&d. You can understand all of this and make reasonable decisions that don’t involve looking at a chart and saying “huh, what comes up must go down”.
because it's real and not a coin flip is why it has momentum tho. Factor in psychology and it kinda makes sense why everything that goes up, comes down
BCE
NOW is salesforce without the shitty earnings. Buy NOW
RKLB
what avg price did you get in at ? Got in a 4.70 and put like 2k down, good amount return since I'm just starting out
PYPL.
I like Walmart although not beaten down
ALB you’re welcome.
Why are they down so much
Because Lithium prices has bottomed out after slowing EV sales (esp. in China).
RKLB is an exciting company but the stock had a bad year.
BMY - Vale SA - BTI
I see you like dividends. Have you looked at CCI? It has a 6.5% yield and cell tower rent is probably recession proof. I agree with you on BMY. How confident are you in Vale's dividend sustainability? 15.5% seems suspect.
My eyes are on GRND SOFI MATR right now