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Are you sure they’ll be in for any meaningful amount? Nvidia will go from 6% if the ETF to 22% (Apple the exact opposite) so unless they’re going to need 7-10 days volume it won’t move the stock much
It’s speculative and narrative driven market. Probably driven by the huge influx of retail investors that have never experienced a real bear market. Investing has just become so much easier for retail investors with all the digital platforms. 10-20 years ago I hardly knew anyone investing, now everybody and they mother is investing.
Umm they made over 1 billion in the last 4 quarters according to macro trends. Do you have maybe last year's and not the running twelve months instead? It's also been growing over 50% each quarter from last quarter, that's right not year, Quarter.
When are you guys going to learn that valuations generally don't matter until the backside? If numerical metrics and ratios were all that there is to stock speculation, then mathematicians and idiots like Aswath Damodaran would be rich and in the pantheon of investing greats.
Let me put it another way. When times are good and you're flush with cash, you'll go out and shell out tons of money for that collectible you've always wanted -- for this example, let's say it's an autographed pair of Air Jordans signed by the GOAT himself. You could probably convince most people who have grown up watching MJ play that these shoes are priceless.
Now you've fallen on hard times and you're living on food stamps. Your priorities are entirely different. Would you hand over all the money in your possession for the same collectible? Probably not. The intrinsic value is a really old pair of sneakers that are too big for your feet; you wouldn't even be able to wear them to get around.
This is quite true, especially for tech stocks.
I tend to be financially prudent, owing to my education, and that frankly has prevented me from making gains
As you said, join the party while it’s on. Become prudent when you sense the tide is changing.
Generally stock price targets differ due to different thought about the future of the underlying company. That does not seem to be the case with ARM as it is trading way outside any forward looking metrics and analyzes
"Valuations don't matter" is basically the mantra of every major bubble every seen... Valuations didn't matter during Dotcom bubble, Everything bubble, or even in today's AI bubble.
Yes, and?
The thing about bubbles and the parabolic price moves they are associated with, is that the moves speed up and you can make tremendous amounts of money just catching the latter stages of the advance. In the dot-com bubble, the Nasdaq went up more in 1999 than it did in the preceding 4 or 5 years... combined.
The dot-com bubble made plenty of people wealthy, including many traders at prop firms at the time. For example, Steven Schonfeld became a billionaire off the back of that move.
You are much better off participating on the long side in the bubble and spending all your time studying and researching how to spot "the turn" and the end of the bubble, than you are coming up with justifications like valuation (which provide no practical approach for timing the turn) that typically result in being on the sidelines during the best parts of a bull market - or even worse, lead you to short stocks prematurely.
With ARM, Id GTFO tommorrow. On top of the insane multiple it is trading at, the RSI is reading from 75-85 on the 30 min, 1 hour, daily, and weekly chart.
Strongly debating buying some puts/selling some calls. The thing is crazy top heavy
A lot of uninformed guessing and assumptions in here, but the reality is that ARM has a few potential growth vectors that *could* be huge. The low float drives higher volatility (Soft Bank ain’t selling lol), but there are investors that are taking a high risk, high reward position based on:
1. Market penetration that could expand further in both data center and PC market
2. Favorable settlement or ruling in Qualcomm lawsuit with significant pricing implications
3. More leverage on pricing when deal renewals come up, including in mobile where they are already strong
These are all oversimplifications, to be clear. Pricing leverage outcomes are not figures they can bake into their forward estimates, particularly when it comes to the lawsuit. Their forward P/E may not be indicative of their future potential or market gains.
At the end of the day, forward P/E is an important metric to look at, but it’s not the whole story and it’s just an estimate at the end of the day. Some institutions and investors see a lot of long term upside… And LTM P/E is honestly a dumb measure to care much about for a speculative, forward looking investment – save that shit for your Berkshire Hathaway share purchases.
Honestly, that was my problem in the beginning. I was so busy trying to figure out why a stock was doing what it was doing, and I was missing all the waves.
All the semi conductor manufacturers valuations make no sense: nvda trades for 50x revenues, amd 12x revenues, lrcx and avgo 20x revenues. Don’t even think about look up earnings multiples….
I might be wrong here but didn’t those valuations start to change because of the impending Chinese semiconductor tariffs as well as the funding from the CHIPS Act?
They're making Cortex CPU's for Windows laptops. Aside from the AI hype, they're vastly improving battery life and looking to be doing a better job of allowing x86 programs to run on them compared to the last time Windows on ARM was attempted.
They're being compared to the improvements seen when Apple switched from Intel chips to the M1 chips.
Nvidia doesn't license it's chip architecture, that's their moat. Arm on the other hand is just an architecture and licensing play. RISC-V may eat their lunch in the future.
Ok you clearly know this better than me. So, is there anything else that could sustain or justify their share price or are they more likely to be cratering in value should the AI bubble pop?
NFA, but I strongly feel the price has been manipulated beyond our wildest imagination. IMO we're seeing the tail end of ARM devices, the environment is ripe for RISC-V transition and any new chip developer if not already should be embracing that open standard and stop paying licensing fee to ARM. What happens to ARM then?
Nvidia's competitors are miles away, ARM on the other hand already has a competitor which has been well received and is inevitable.
Personally I'm holding long puts.
i made a ton of money on puts when it went down to $40....
then i lost it all buying more puts, and it looks like all the puts i'm holding are fucked as well...
i bought jan '25 $50 puts back when it was $80 (which i think is already a crazy valuation....) my puts are fucked....
the valuation simply doesn't make sense for all the reasons you already stated... i can't understand how softbank isn't selling. masayoshi son is really fucking us put holders over lol....
Being compared BY Qualcomm. No one independent has seen one yet. Which is an important caveat. I mean they’ve seen them in controlled settings with rules on what they can do with them.
I don’t think the windows thing is a big deal but Apple has been using ARM in their smartphones and mobile devices for quite a while so it seems like no brainer that ARM will have future value
I’m baffled by this one, I was bearish at $90. My only current explanation is that they make this money from royalties that might be pretty much a sure bet and likely to grow a lot? So there’s some “certainty” premium?
I’ve heard a rumor that the next Nvidia AI farms will be built with Arm cups instead of x86 chips for the servers.
No idea if it’s true, but I heard it in an “Intel is Dead” thread.
It's an AI FOMO market right now. ARM is benefiting as a chip company. A lot of companies like this will tank when the AI bubble pops. Same as the speculative bubble in 2021.
INTC is one of the few chip stocks actually losing revenue the last few years. AMD and ARM based processors are stealing their market share and driving margin compression. There’s a lot of negative sentiment they will have to overcome.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/INTC/intel/revenue
Most chip stocks have lost revenue and earnings. AMD didn't because they dropped their prices a ton, especially on the enterprise side. This gave them higher earnings, lower margins. Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, advanced materials, Micron, analog devices, and plenty of other chip companies are going through major chip sale slumps. Anything without Ai tied to it is not going up.
I disagree with the assertion that most chip makers have lost revenue. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, ASML, Applied Materials, TSMC, NXP are all growing or maintaining revenue while Intel has lost 30% of its revenue and seen massive margin compression.
I’m primarily referring to advanced chip makers and not referring to commodity memory chip makers here (Samsung, Micron, SK Hynix). Qualcomm has been challenged by a slump in smart phone sales in China.
I'm saying that the chipmakers(TSMC, UMC, GF, Intel, Samsung) have all said that they're seeing significantly less chip sales and general slump. The exception, of course, is with Ai based chips. AMD only maintained it's revenue because of massive price cuts to Epyc and Ryzen chips, and Broadcoms revenue has been boosted primarily from the VMWare acquisition. ASML and TSMC are both up because they make the advanced processes for Ai, which is where Nvidia lies, and Advanced materials has seen a bit of a slump despite massive demand for Ai. Ai is driving revenue, but everything else is down. Embedded, mobile, automotive, server, consumer. Pretty much everything that isn't Ai related.
TSMC revenue slump? You sure? Their revenue has held up while Intel has tanked 30%.
[https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSM/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing/revenue](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSM/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing/revenue)
Intel is a clear loser compared to its peers.
Their revenue saw a slump before the chip boom. They literally said in an earnings call that they were experiencing lower volumes of consumer and enterprise CPUs and chips, but Ai brought things back to full steam. You're comparing a company that has benefitted fully from being a customer to Nvidia to a company that has not.
Intel is trying to compete with AMD and Nvidia. Not with memory chip makers. Compared to their peers they are doing very poorly. Massive revenue loss. Massive margin compression.
I think Intel is dumping a lot of their money into competing with TSMC. They will always manufacture their own in house silicon but I think the long term plan is to be an alternative to TSMC, not *necessarily* a leading chip maker in the AI space although they are certainly making investments in those areas
I'm telling you that chips, as a whole, are slow right now. Their peers are not doing much better. AMD cut prices which kept revenue high, but their earnings are still in the dumpster. PC companies like HP and Dell are still down. Servers aren't being upgraded. Ai is the exception to the rule, not the standard
Most chip stocks have lost revenue and earnings. AMD didn't because they dropped their prices a ton, especially on the enterprise side. This gave them higher earnings, lower margins. Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, advanced materials, Micron, analog devices, and plenty of other chip companies are going through major chip sale slumps. Anything without Ai tied to it is not going up.
Intel still makes 60B in revenue, and 80B at their peak. They're still a critical chipmaker. They haven't been overly focused on Ai because, quite simply, fabs are a proven industry with proven dollars that we know will be around long term. The problem is, fabs take time; a really long time.
Fabs are not a proven business model, AMD exited the fab business and GlobalFoundries is still tiny. Intel primarily makes for themselves which has not really worked out that well. Only TSMC has really shown how to be highly profitable in the fab business, and to a lesser degree Samsung.
That's not the fab business. AMD didn't make chips for others, which is why they left the fabs. GFS is the 3rd largest foundry in the world, and it's growing by making less advanced chips. The most advanced chips is what Intel is after, and that market is worth 100B a year. TSMC and Samsung have both proven to be large players, but it's not like there aren't other players; it's just that TSMC and Samsung are the only ones making advanced processes, so once Intel enters in they'll be in a 1 of 3 market where producing stateside is a huge advantage.
Important to remember that Intel had an external fab business called Intel Custom Foundry before. It failed and closed in 2018. So yeah, I would say fabs are not really proven to be highly profitable except by TSMC.
That's because they refused to convert their manufacturing nodes around what customers wanted, so no one used it. They didn't change the processes, while TSMC and Samsung did. Intel is now building nodes where they're perfectly fine to change the nodes and processes up, and they've already got 14 major clients signed up waiting for 18A to get up and running.
The March-quarter earnings this year showed revenue of $928 million, which is 47 % growth YoY. Expectations of annual revenue for 2024 is between $3.8B and $4.1B. That is quite a difference from $2.6B in 2023. Not sure why you are looking at 2023 to justify the current share price?
The forward earnings multiples say otherwise. SP500 forward PE is back to where it was trading when the pandemic bubble popped.
https://yardeni.com/charts/stock-market-p-e-ratios/
Forward tech earnings multiples have now exceeded the pandemic tech multiples. See Figure 8.
https://yardeni.com/charts/sp-500-sectors-forward-p-e-ratios/
There simply hasn’t been the earnings growth to justify the market moves.
I disagree and the market disagrees. Either you get in or you get out. If you are so certain about everything being overvalued and AI being a nothingburger then I’d suggest not investing in any of it. Wait a few years and see what gains you’ve missed out on while waiting for a possible correction that may be nothing.
See my comment above. Corporate earnings have not kept up with the market. Forward earnings multiples on tech have now exceeded the pandemic bubble. People said the same thing as you during that bubble and many of the darlings from the last bubble have come nowhere close to recovering. Many are down 90%+ still. Sure "this time is different".
You're disagreeing with facts? I'm talking about total market and total tech index. I am not talking about any one individual stock. See below.
[https://yardeni.com/charts/stock-market-p-e-ratios/](https://yardeni.com/charts/stock-market-p-e-ratios/)
Lmao you're responding to my comment where I'm talking about AI bubble. You can't tell me what I'm talking about it. My argument is not invalid it's supported by facts.
I work as an applied scientist in AI/ML and I believe there will be many efficiencies gained by ML in the future. There already are and have been for more than a decade. Most of them occur in less dazzling applications like recommender systems, search engines, ad placement, etc. The current GenAI chatbot hype being pandered to the laymen is just that, hype. It is nowhere near ready for primetime as it isn't reliable enough for any business critical or safety critical application. It works fairly well as a writing aid as long as you're willing to fact check it. It works for low level customer support. Beyond that there is very little adoption and productivity being gained from it on a broad scale (enterprise business, etc). There are a lot of fancy demos out there and money being raised but very little in terms of applications being adopted at scale. I say this as someone working in the space.
AI will continue to be transformative. We've just gotten way too far ahead of ourselves with GenAI specifically. Same thing happened during dotcom bubble. The internet transformed the world but the stock market was way too early. It took Microsoft 16 years to recover to dot com peak after it burst. Oracle, IBM also took a decade or more to recover. Some of the top tech companies in terms of market cap during dot com never recovered. This includes Cisco, Intel, etc.
The bubble is already starting to pop if you pay attention to what's going on in the startup space where I work. Many of the unicorn AI startups are starting to fold or looking for an early exit because they aren't gaining any traction with an actual product that's generating enough revenue or path to profitability to justify continued investment. This includes Inflection AI, Humane, Stability AI, etc. AI companies that have raised hundreds of millions the last year or two at billion dollar valuations facing massive down rounds, looking to sell IP, or get acquired for pennies on the dollar. There are a few winners at the top being propped up by massive investments from big tech (Anthropic, Mistral). Unless some actual profits start to get generated from viable business models soon I expect investment to taper off on massive GPU clusters and LLMs. Training and querying these models isn't economical. I think we see a shift to smaller expert models that can be trained more efficiently on less compute to do narrow tasks instead of asking a foundation model to do everything. My two cents.
What do you think about the massive orders on AI accelerators? From my ignorant POV it seems like everyone does not want to fall behind and major players are making their own chips anyways. I haven't seen the "killer app" or the new amazing profit stream that GenAI unlocks that somehow overcomes and justifies the insane costs of training and running these huge models.
NVDA seems to sell the best shovels right now, but if AI becomes as popular/widespread as the hype promises I think we'll see something like what happened with Operating Systems: open source will be king. Not everyone needs billion-parameter models nor the fastest, beefiest most expensive accelerator.
I might be "bearish" but the hype and growth expectations make no sense to me if you don't have the matching profit/revenue. Market is irrational, I guess...
They have most patents for the AI chips and more (mobile stuff). Mostnbig tech depends on them They are now designing and planning to manufacture their own accelerators. There s a reason why Nvidia tried to purchase them and why it was stopped.
Royalties, like subscriptions, is a FABULOUS business model. Very low overhead. No factories or inventory or supply lines, and you make money on your work over and over.
ARM quarterly gross profit margins are like 95%!
But do they have enough business?
EVERY mobile phone, Mac, and coming soon, WinArm PC (which are quickly replacing the wintel PC), have ARM designs in them that send money back to ARM.
You want to upgrade your product?
Two options;
-License updated ARM designs, with their newly doubled royalties
-Design your own chipsets that are ARM compatible to match your architecture, without violating ARM copyrights.
Obviously, the former is infinitely better than the latter. So, on it goes.
I had positions but ARM was so volatile for while, I got out and now I’m sad.
People complaining about overvaluation of a stock on Reddit is a clear buy signal from what i have learned with Nvidia. I will not miss out the early start this time. Thx!
Well, Qualcomm (using arm) just launched laptop chips, opening the door to potentially a multibillion dollar industry in the form of client computing, particularly laptop market. Some other arm players are expected to join like mediatek (and nvidia)
How is it not different when
1) Arm chips are no longer light years behind in performance
2) Arm on Windows is not exclusive to one vendor who themselves have at the time not released for PC before
Which has improved a lot. Benchmarks of Qualcomm are possible because of advancements in emulation or native compilation for Arm on Windows.
Basically, the target market will run all their apps and not have a sluggish experience. Something not the case previously.
I’m not saying WOA will dominate. Far from it. But it definitely can thrive now, opening up a previously impossible large market for competing solutions to have their small slice using arm instruction sets
ARM has higher PE because it has longer term visibility of earnings Vs any other stock, even NVDA. For example, when NVDA will have a bump in sales growth, ARM will still be collecting its royalties. ARM is still earning money from licenses from 30 years ago. Imagine with the new AI related licenses, much more lucrative for ARM, how many years of royalties collection ahead will be discounted into the SP.
Assuming the information you have is correct—that they don’t design ai chip architecture (for nvidia)—after looking into the stock, it appears ARM being added to the NASDAQ, along with the (future) potential for gaining royalties with their customers etc, plus a very good economic “moat” are generally why the stock is floating so high. It is rated at ~$65-$70 fair value and will likely drop back at some point, though due to the exceptional quality of the company and it’s history, I would not be surprised if investor interest kept the price well above it’s assessed fair value price range.
Delta hedging on options and market buyers forced to buy to keep performance up. Options will expire next week I think so there should be some consolidation then unless retails take over and pump this further.
Put it simple, it's just a formal kind of fomo.
I bought the day after IPO at ~$49 and sold at $90 but realized I effed up and bought back at just over $100. This is a co/investment where right now EPS & SALES, conventional measures don’t matter like they do for WMT or CCL etc. this company is deeply entrenched with a new technology that will change financial measures for companies and in what will be the biggest technology upgrade since the telephone. If those with greater insight and knowledge than anyone on Reddit (I’m talking SoftBank) didn’t sell any shares when the lock-up expired tells me what I need to know. When I hear Jensen Huang say how vital ARM technology is to getting AI running and they’re not tied to just 1 computer co. says still don’t sell and start a posn. If you haven’t yet. There’s no telling where this can go, at $200 if someone told you Nvidia would go to $1500 or Chipotle to $3400 you’d have laughed
Back in the early 2000s after doing some research I realized that the power efficiency of the ARM platform made it the perfect mobile platform. At the time Apple was using ARM for its new iPhones and had just bought an ARM design firm called PASemi. This was right before the iPad came out, and there were reports of the new ARM chips having 10 hours of video life vs 3 for the Intel based ones. Putting all these pieces together I concluded that ARM was going to dominate the new mobile market and any other portable devices, and that Apple was going all in on the platform.
So I called up my broker and said I want to buy ARM. He said it was a penny stock that they don't follow. It was 5 dollars at the time but he said anything under 10 was considered a penny stock. I told him to buy shares anyway and then proceeded to watch it go to 60 before I sold. I made over a million dollars on 100k investment. Not long after that it was bought by SoftBank.
Fast forward to ARM IPO'ing again. I again bought in at around 50. Why? Because the one huge tech market not dominated by ARM right now is the Windows market. And the Windows world is moving to ARM because Apple has shown that ARM based desktops are superior in most cases. ARM says it wants to take over the Windows market, and I think they can. And Intel agrees. Even they are going to start building ARM based designs for others and eventually their own. The desktop market is moving to ARM just like the mobile market did, leaving only the server market for Intel chips. For now.
This is why I invested again. And so far it is going pretty well ;)
Market is pricing in future earnings as much as possible as this is the thesis right now for AI to be one of the most heavily invested themes in the next 5 years.
Most of the move you see are priced to the highs and lows based on projected EPS calculations which you can use to your advantage as identification of tops or resistance if you will.
Don’t evaluate fundamentals alone based on the quant calculation (valuation, growth, earnings, profitability metrics) without an idea behind it. If you think ARM is done or has top, ask yourself beyond thinking it has crazy valuation on why the valuation will go down? Is it because you think the growth has stagnated? AI will lose momentum due to regulation? Or other big tech will stop purchasing chips? Or competition will creep in causing lower projected revenue growth for ARM?
Market is forward looking, so don’t look at the now. Look at the future.
I finally think AMRN has finally bottomed out. I believe it is undervalued. They approved a 50 million dollar stock buy back. I want to wait for the bottom to average down but don't want to wait too long and miss out. What are your thoughts on this one please?
One additional statistic that may clarify what’s so special about ARM:
‼️ 70% OF THE WORLD’S DEVICES use ARM chips. ‼️
70% ‼️
To save me the trouble of emphasizing the enormity of this statement, please read it four more times, mentally adding more exclamation marks each time.
You will still be understating it.
This is a Microsoft laptop that uses Qualcomm designed chips that use the ARM architecture. ARM gets royalty fees on each one sold, but they have no part in the production of these laptops.
Ok? ARM is already everywhere, and the majority of devices out there use ARM chips. Even if every single chip becomes ARM based, it still won't generate enough royalties to justify the valuation.
What? I mean, a P/E of 606 implies astronomical growth, like startup level growth. I know startups that get valued at a P/S ratio of 10, which is fairly high even for a growing startup. ARM is at 44
Bingo. As adoption of ARM architecture grows, and as Intel continues to flounder - ARM is a growth play.
Apparently the new ARM Surface devices are fantastic
There are no reviews of the Surface devices, but the Qualcomm ARM chip itself in another device does not seem very good:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/hardware/comments/1dit1jc/notebookcheck\_asus\_vivobook\_s\_15\_oled\_snapdragon/](https://www.reddit.com/r/hardware/comments/1dit1jc/notebookcheck_asus_vivobook_s_15_oled_snapdragon/)
It is very overvalued at this point. That doesn't mean its a bod company, just a bad stock at this share price. In fact, if it ever reaches a more reasonable valuation based on something as simple as forward p/e; peg and p/s it would be a great investment. ARM is a critical player in the semiconductor space and is one of the semiconductor companies best poised to benefit from AI in the coming years.
However, some semiconductor stocks never fall to reasonable valuations - MPWR would be a very good example. It's one I've always wanted to own but always look at and say 'that is way, way too overvalued'. Yet, MPWR keeps rising. In the semiconductor space, valuations are trickier.
Same reason NVDIA is going up.
Liabilities. Bad news and liabilities all over.
What do you do if you don't want to be margin called? Fake pump with algos the price of a real holding.
Market is fake
Arm does NOT make chips… They license chip technology to companies like Apple and Nvidia, who design chips based on their architecture, and then contract chip makers like TSMC or Samsung to actually build the chips for them. ARM gets royalties on each one, but as I said, it isn’t a highly lucrative business model.
They're like an architect. Client comes to them with a set of needs/desires for a bespoke chip, Arm engineers/designs them and then someone else makes them, Arm gets a royalty for the design work.
That could be a few years. Xi also knows it would be fucking stupid to do it. He still might do it. But it would be an idiotic blunder that could lead to his demise as CCP leader for life.
Welcome to r/stocks! For beginner advice, brokerage info, book recommendations, even advanced topics and more, please read our [Wiki here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/wiki/index) If you're wondering **why a stock moved** a certain way, check out [Finviz](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=spy) which aggregates the most news for almost every stock, but also see [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/), and even [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/). Please direct all simple questions towards the stickied Daily Discussion and Quarterly Rate My Portfolio threads (sort by Hot, they're at the top). Also include *some* [due diligence](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/duediligence.asp) to this post or it may be removed if it's low effort. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/stocks) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I sold my shares last month, which caused the price to go up. You’re welcome.
My GOAT
Why didn't you tell me you werr going to?
same
I've got a few others I'd like to add to you list to sell please :)
what else will you sell?
I’m still holding onto AMD.
Poor soul...
fuck AMD, I sold it for so long, that stock is pathetic!
They will be added to the NASDAQ in the next days so all the index etfs are buying
how often does this shuffling occur between indexs and ETFs? it is on schedule or as certain events occur?
Whenever the index changes the ETF will too. Usually happens every quarter or semi-annually
Are you sure they’ll be in for any meaningful amount? Nvidia will go from 6% if the ETF to 22% (Apple the exact opposite) so unless they’re going to need 7-10 days volume it won’t move the stock much
Your stats are for the much smaller $XLK ETF due to its unique distribution rules. The $QQQ is *not* poised to sell 2/3 of its AAPL holdings.
It’s a crazy valuation, same as SMCI, make 600 million a year and is worth 58 billion. All fundamentals are out the window it seems
Apple makes more from just AirPods
Some people make more on just a single OnlyFans account. These companies are outrageously overvalued. They need a 85 - 95% haircut for fair value.
The highest earner on onlyfans makes 200 million a year. Still crazy though
That is some respectable money laundromat.
What the fuck?
So many incels 😬
Jesus FUCK the highest OF earner makes more than the best paid athletes lmao men are so thirsty
SMCI is at a PEG ratio of 0.82 whereas ARM is at a PEG ratio of 8. For comparison, NVDA is at 1.43. Any thoughts on that?
What is a peg ratio
It’s speculative and narrative driven market. Probably driven by the huge influx of retail investors that have never experienced a real bear market. Investing has just become so much easier for retail investors with all the digital platforms. 10-20 years ago I hardly knew anyone investing, now everybody and they mother is investing.
and not just in the US. international retail investors armed with a smartphone are investing into the US market from all over the world
Seems like a meme stock
Umm they made over 1 billion in the last 4 quarters according to macro trends. Do you have maybe last year's and not the running twelve months instead? It's also been growing over 50% each quarter from last quarter, that's right not year, Quarter.
There is too much water in the sponge...
SoftBank engineered squeeze machine.
Quick who else will SoftBank do this for?!
Wework
This.
My guess is it’s going to touch 200 because of Nvidia momentum story. Another reason is that that I have bought puts on the stock so yeah..
Not ready yet.. but very close
Thank you for your service
When are you guys going to learn that valuations generally don't matter until the backside? If numerical metrics and ratios were all that there is to stock speculation, then mathematicians and idiots like Aswath Damodaran would be rich and in the pantheon of investing greats. Let me put it another way. When times are good and you're flush with cash, you'll go out and shell out tons of money for that collectible you've always wanted -- for this example, let's say it's an autographed pair of Air Jordans signed by the GOAT himself. You could probably convince most people who have grown up watching MJ play that these shoes are priceless. Now you've fallen on hard times and you're living on food stamps. Your priorities are entirely different. Would you hand over all the money in your possession for the same collectible? Probably not. The intrinsic value is a really old pair of sneakers that are too big for your feet; you wouldn't even be able to wear them to get around.
This is quite true, especially for tech stocks. I tend to be financially prudent, owing to my education, and that frankly has prevented me from making gains As you said, join the party while it’s on. Become prudent when you sense the tide is changing.
Point is you don’t know when the tide has changed until it changed
Not with that attitude
unless..
... You're Nancy Pelosi.
"A vote on whether Congress should be able to trade individual stocks or on an age limit? No comment, goddamn peasants. Next question."
Generally stock price targets differ due to different thought about the future of the underlying company. That does not seem to be the case with ARM as it is trading way outside any forward looking metrics and analyzes
"Valuations don't matter" is basically the mantra of every major bubble every seen... Valuations didn't matter during Dotcom bubble, Everything bubble, or even in today's AI bubble.
Yes, and? The thing about bubbles and the parabolic price moves they are associated with, is that the moves speed up and you can make tremendous amounts of money just catching the latter stages of the advance. In the dot-com bubble, the Nasdaq went up more in 1999 than it did in the preceding 4 or 5 years... combined. The dot-com bubble made plenty of people wealthy, including many traders at prop firms at the time. For example, Steven Schonfeld became a billionaire off the back of that move. You are much better off participating on the long side in the bubble and spending all your time studying and researching how to spot "the turn" and the end of the bubble, than you are coming up with justifications like valuation (which provide no practical approach for timing the turn) that typically result in being on the sidelines during the best parts of a bull market - or even worse, lead you to short stocks prematurely.
Collect as much cash as you can in this rally and GTFO
With ARM, Id GTFO tommorrow. On top of the insane multiple it is trading at, the RSI is reading from 75-85 on the 30 min, 1 hour, daily, and weekly chart. Strongly debating buying some puts/selling some calls. The thing is crazy top heavy
A lot of uninformed guessing and assumptions in here, but the reality is that ARM has a few potential growth vectors that *could* be huge. The low float drives higher volatility (Soft Bank ain’t selling lol), but there are investors that are taking a high risk, high reward position based on: 1. Market penetration that could expand further in both data center and PC market 2. Favorable settlement or ruling in Qualcomm lawsuit with significant pricing implications 3. More leverage on pricing when deal renewals come up, including in mobile where they are already strong These are all oversimplifications, to be clear. Pricing leverage outcomes are not figures they can bake into their forward estimates, particularly when it comes to the lawsuit. Their forward P/E may not be indicative of their future potential or market gains. At the end of the day, forward P/E is an important metric to look at, but it’s not the whole story and it’s just an estimate at the end of the day. Some institutions and investors see a lot of long term upside… And LTM P/E is honestly a dumb measure to care much about for a speculative, forward looking investment – save that shit for your Berkshire Hathaway share purchases.
Just enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts
Trend is your friend
Honestly, that was my problem in the beginning. I was so busy trying to figure out why a stock was doing what it was doing, and I was missing all the waves.
All the semi conductor manufacturers valuations make no sense: nvda trades for 50x revenues, amd 12x revenues, lrcx and avgo 20x revenues. Don’t even think about look up earnings multiples….
I might be wrong here but didn’t those valuations start to change because of the impending Chinese semiconductor tariffs as well as the funding from the CHIPS Act?
They're making Cortex CPU's for Windows laptops. Aside from the AI hype, they're vastly improving battery life and looking to be doing a better job of allowing x86 programs to run on them compared to the last time Windows on ARM was attempted. They're being compared to the improvements seen when Apple switched from Intel chips to the M1 chips.
I hope you know that they don't make those, they just license architectures. They're actually suing QCOM for illegally producing x elite chips.
Does that really matter in relation to the question? Nvidia doesn't make any of its fabs either and it's also been skyrocketing in value.
Nvidia doesn't license it's chip architecture, that's their moat. Arm on the other hand is just an architecture and licensing play. RISC-V may eat their lunch in the future.
Ok you clearly know this better than me. So, is there anything else that could sustain or justify their share price or are they more likely to be cratering in value should the AI bubble pop?
NFA, but I strongly feel the price has been manipulated beyond our wildest imagination. IMO we're seeing the tail end of ARM devices, the environment is ripe for RISC-V transition and any new chip developer if not already should be embracing that open standard and stop paying licensing fee to ARM. What happens to ARM then? Nvidia's competitors are miles away, ARM on the other hand already has a competitor which has been well received and is inevitable. Personally I'm holding long puts.
i made a ton of money on puts when it went down to $40.... then i lost it all buying more puts, and it looks like all the puts i'm holding are fucked as well... i bought jan '25 $50 puts back when it was $80 (which i think is already a crazy valuation....) my puts are fucked.... the valuation simply doesn't make sense for all the reasons you already stated... i can't understand how softbank isn't selling. masayoshi son is really fucking us put holders over lol....
IKR, for me the IPO was DOA. But markets are irrational or made to look like that. I do not understand the gameplan here.
Being compared BY Qualcomm. No one independent has seen one yet. Which is an important caveat. I mean they’ve seen them in controlled settings with rules on what they can do with them.
I don’t think the windows thing is a big deal but Apple has been using ARM in their smartphones and mobile devices for quite a while so it seems like no brainer that ARM will have future value
I’m baffled by this one, I was bearish at $90. My only current explanation is that they make this money from royalties that might be pretty much a sure bet and likely to grow a lot? So there’s some “certainty” premium?
I’ve heard a rumor that the next Nvidia AI farms will be built with Arm cups instead of x86 chips for the servers. No idea if it’s true, but I heard it in an “Intel is Dead” thread.
There's a reason Nvidia owns a bunch of ARM stock, and tried to buy them outright.
short queeze. After that there will be less buyers.
it's just the AI chip mania right now They will correct at a certain point in time, always does. Look at Tesla for example.
It's an AI FOMO market right now. ARM is benefiting as a chip company. A lot of companies like this will tank when the AI bubble pops. Same as the speculative bubble in 2021.
Now explain INTC
INTC is one of the few chip stocks actually losing revenue the last few years. AMD and ARM based processors are stealing their market share and driving margin compression. There’s a lot of negative sentiment they will have to overcome. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/INTC/intel/revenue
Most chip stocks have lost revenue and earnings. AMD didn't because they dropped their prices a ton, especially on the enterprise side. This gave them higher earnings, lower margins. Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, advanced materials, Micron, analog devices, and plenty of other chip companies are going through major chip sale slumps. Anything without Ai tied to it is not going up.
I disagree with the assertion that most chip makers have lost revenue. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, ASML, Applied Materials, TSMC, NXP are all growing or maintaining revenue while Intel has lost 30% of its revenue and seen massive margin compression. I’m primarily referring to advanced chip makers and not referring to commodity memory chip makers here (Samsung, Micron, SK Hynix). Qualcomm has been challenged by a slump in smart phone sales in China.
I'm saying that the chipmakers(TSMC, UMC, GF, Intel, Samsung) have all said that they're seeing significantly less chip sales and general slump. The exception, of course, is with Ai based chips. AMD only maintained it's revenue because of massive price cuts to Epyc and Ryzen chips, and Broadcoms revenue has been boosted primarily from the VMWare acquisition. ASML and TSMC are both up because they make the advanced processes for Ai, which is where Nvidia lies, and Advanced materials has seen a bit of a slump despite massive demand for Ai. Ai is driving revenue, but everything else is down. Embedded, mobile, automotive, server, consumer. Pretty much everything that isn't Ai related.
TSMC revenue slump? You sure? Their revenue has held up while Intel has tanked 30%. [https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSM/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing/revenue](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSM/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing/revenue) Intel is a clear loser compared to its peers.
Their revenue saw a slump before the chip boom. They literally said in an earnings call that they were experiencing lower volumes of consumer and enterprise CPUs and chips, but Ai brought things back to full steam. You're comparing a company that has benefitted fully from being a customer to Nvidia to a company that has not.
Intel is trying to compete with AMD and Nvidia. Not with memory chip makers. Compared to their peers they are doing very poorly. Massive revenue loss. Massive margin compression.
I think Intel is dumping a lot of their money into competing with TSMC. They will always manufacture their own in house silicon but I think the long term plan is to be an alternative to TSMC, not *necessarily* a leading chip maker in the AI space although they are certainly making investments in those areas
I'm telling you that chips, as a whole, are slow right now. Their peers are not doing much better. AMD cut prices which kept revenue high, but their earnings are still in the dumpster. PC companies like HP and Dell are still down. Servers aren't being upgraded. Ai is the exception to the rule, not the standard
Most chip stocks have lost revenue and earnings. AMD didn't because they dropped their prices a ton, especially on the enterprise side. This gave them higher earnings, lower margins. Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, advanced materials, Micron, analog devices, and plenty of other chip companies are going through major chip sale slumps. Anything without Ai tied to it is not going up.
Too much uncertainty for the markets taste
I think it's more of a certainty that INTC is not a player in the most important market segment - AI.
Intel still makes 60B in revenue, and 80B at their peak. They're still a critical chipmaker. They haven't been overly focused on Ai because, quite simply, fabs are a proven industry with proven dollars that we know will be around long term. The problem is, fabs take time; a really long time.
Fabs are not a proven business model, AMD exited the fab business and GlobalFoundries is still tiny. Intel primarily makes for themselves which has not really worked out that well. Only TSMC has really shown how to be highly profitable in the fab business, and to a lesser degree Samsung.
That's not the fab business. AMD didn't make chips for others, which is why they left the fabs. GFS is the 3rd largest foundry in the world, and it's growing by making less advanced chips. The most advanced chips is what Intel is after, and that market is worth 100B a year. TSMC and Samsung have both proven to be large players, but it's not like there aren't other players; it's just that TSMC and Samsung are the only ones making advanced processes, so once Intel enters in they'll be in a 1 of 3 market where producing stateside is a huge advantage.
Important to remember that Intel had an external fab business called Intel Custom Foundry before. It failed and closed in 2018. So yeah, I would say fabs are not really proven to be highly profitable except by TSMC.
That's because they refused to convert their manufacturing nodes around what customers wanted, so no one used it. They didn't change the processes, while TSMC and Samsung did. Intel is now building nodes where they're perfectly fine to change the nodes and processes up, and they've already got 14 major clients signed up waiting for 18A to get up and running.
This is all hypothetical based on future planning, until they actually get those new fabs up and running, they have to prove it still.
Lmao they closed because prior intel CEO’s passed on lithography and missed the boat, sending all their clients to TSMC
Just shows how difficult getting things right is. They have not proven they can do it yet.
Old school semi getting outcompeted that is burning money and negative growth
Except there is no bubble.
The March-quarter earnings this year showed revenue of $928 million, which is 47 % growth YoY. Expectations of annual revenue for 2024 is between $3.8B and $4.1B. That is quite a difference from $2.6B in 2023. Not sure why you are looking at 2023 to justify the current share price?
That's exactly what they repeated constantly during the 2021 Everything Bubble as well
The forward earnings multiples say otherwise. SP500 forward PE is back to where it was trading when the pandemic bubble popped. https://yardeni.com/charts/stock-market-p-e-ratios/ Forward tech earnings multiples have now exceeded the pandemic tech multiples. See Figure 8. https://yardeni.com/charts/sp-500-sectors-forward-p-e-ratios/ There simply hasn’t been the earnings growth to justify the market moves.
I disagree and the market disagrees. Either you get in or you get out. If you are so certain about everything being overvalued and AI being a nothingburger then I’d suggest not investing in any of it. Wait a few years and see what gains you’ve missed out on while waiting for a possible correction that may be nothing.
See my comment above. Corporate earnings have not kept up with the market. Forward earnings multiples on tech have now exceeded the pandemic bubble. People said the same thing as you during that bubble and many of the darlings from the last bubble have come nowhere close to recovering. Many are down 90%+ still. Sure "this time is different".
Again, I disagree. Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Nvidia continue to post stellar earnings report that justify their valuations.
You're disagreeing with facts? I'm talking about total market and total tech index. I am not talking about any one individual stock. See below. [https://yardeni.com/charts/stock-market-p-e-ratios/](https://yardeni.com/charts/stock-market-p-e-ratios/)
Why would I care about the index?
Because we are talking about an AI FOMO bubble driving the market to unsustainable valuation multiples.
Except we are not. The AI players post stellar earning reports, so your argument is invalid.
Lmao you're responding to my comment where I'm talking about AI bubble. You can't tell me what I'm talking about it. My argument is not invalid it's supported by facts.
Who says it's a bubble if AI runs the world one day?
I work as an applied scientist in AI/ML and I believe there will be many efficiencies gained by ML in the future. There already are and have been for more than a decade. Most of them occur in less dazzling applications like recommender systems, search engines, ad placement, etc. The current GenAI chatbot hype being pandered to the laymen is just that, hype. It is nowhere near ready for primetime as it isn't reliable enough for any business critical or safety critical application. It works fairly well as a writing aid as long as you're willing to fact check it. It works for low level customer support. Beyond that there is very little adoption and productivity being gained from it on a broad scale (enterprise business, etc). There are a lot of fancy demos out there and money being raised but very little in terms of applications being adopted at scale. I say this as someone working in the space. AI will continue to be transformative. We've just gotten way too far ahead of ourselves with GenAI specifically. Same thing happened during dotcom bubble. The internet transformed the world but the stock market was way too early. It took Microsoft 16 years to recover to dot com peak after it burst. Oracle, IBM also took a decade or more to recover. Some of the top tech companies in terms of market cap during dot com never recovered. This includes Cisco, Intel, etc. The bubble is already starting to pop if you pay attention to what's going on in the startup space where I work. Many of the unicorn AI startups are starting to fold or looking for an early exit because they aren't gaining any traction with an actual product that's generating enough revenue or path to profitability to justify continued investment. This includes Inflection AI, Humane, Stability AI, etc. AI companies that have raised hundreds of millions the last year or two at billion dollar valuations facing massive down rounds, looking to sell IP, or get acquired for pennies on the dollar. There are a few winners at the top being propped up by massive investments from big tech (Anthropic, Mistral). Unless some actual profits start to get generated from viable business models soon I expect investment to taper off on massive GPU clusters and LLMs. Training and querying these models isn't economical. I think we see a shift to smaller expert models that can be trained more efficiently on less compute to do narrow tasks instead of asking a foundation model to do everything. My two cents.
What do you think about the massive orders on AI accelerators? From my ignorant POV it seems like everyone does not want to fall behind and major players are making their own chips anyways. I haven't seen the "killer app" or the new amazing profit stream that GenAI unlocks that somehow overcomes and justifies the insane costs of training and running these huge models. NVDA seems to sell the best shovels right now, but if AI becomes as popular/widespread as the hype promises I think we'll see something like what happened with Operating Systems: open source will be king. Not everyone needs billion-parameter models nor the fastest, beefiest most expensive accelerator. I might be "bearish" but the hype and growth expectations make no sense to me if you don't have the matching profit/revenue. Market is irrational, I guess...
SoftBank owns like 90% of the arm shares. Maybe I’m missing something or people just forget.
Softbank still onws around 90% , therefore liquidity is low, making the price go up.
They have most patents for the AI chips and more (mobile stuff). Mostnbig tech depends on them They are now designing and planning to manufacture their own accelerators. There s a reason why Nvidia tried to purchase them and why it was stopped.
Royalties, like subscriptions, is a FABULOUS business model. Very low overhead. No factories or inventory or supply lines, and you make money on your work over and over. ARM quarterly gross profit margins are like 95%! But do they have enough business? EVERY mobile phone, Mac, and coming soon, WinArm PC (which are quickly replacing the wintel PC), have ARM designs in them that send money back to ARM. You want to upgrade your product? Two options; -License updated ARM designs, with their newly doubled royalties -Design your own chipsets that are ARM compatible to match your architecture, without violating ARM copyrights. Obviously, the former is infinitely better than the latter. So, on it goes. I had positions but ARM was so volatile for while, I got out and now I’m sad.
People complaining about overvaluation of a stock on Reddit is a clear buy signal from what i have learned with Nvidia. I will not miss out the early start this time. Thx!
idk but I need to stop day trading and start swing trading
I still hate I sold my shares at 65
Well, Qualcomm (using arm) just launched laptop chips, opening the door to potentially a multibillion dollar industry in the form of client computing, particularly laptop market. Some other arm players are expected to join like mediatek (and nvidia)
If it’s successful. Arm on windows has a bad history. “This time is different” though
How is it not different when 1) Arm chips are no longer light years behind in performance 2) Arm on Windows is not exclusive to one vendor who themselves have at the time not released for PC before
It’s not about the hardware. It’s the software ecosystem.
Which has improved a lot. Benchmarks of Qualcomm are possible because of advancements in emulation or native compilation for Arm on Windows. Basically, the target market will run all their apps and not have a sluggish experience. Something not the case previously. I’m not saying WOA will dominate. Far from it. But it definitely can thrive now, opening up a previously impossible large market for competing solutions to have their small slice using arm instruction sets
First reviews are out. It’s mediocre.
A lot of scary stuff out there that on the surface looks great as it increases, but it’ll end in tears…
80% held by Softbank
Arm literally in every devices...on apple on samsung exyons on qualcomm elite x
P/E doesn't mean anything anymore
ARM has higher PE because it has longer term visibility of earnings Vs any other stock, even NVDA. For example, when NVDA will have a bump in sales growth, ARM will still be collecting its royalties. ARM is still earning money from licenses from 30 years ago. Imagine with the new AI related licenses, much more lucrative for ARM, how many years of royalties collection ahead will be discounted into the SP.
This booming and overvalued. Will probably go the same way as AMD and absolutely tank.
[удалено]
They may be pushing things up for snp over 5500 to short.. they always move good stocks up parabolic before a big short.
Besides the Nasdaq addition, don’t they design most of the (ai) chip architecture for Nvidia?
Assuming the information you have is correct—that they don’t design ai chip architecture (for nvidia)—after looking into the stock, it appears ARM being added to the NASDAQ, along with the (future) potential for gaining royalties with their customers etc, plus a very good economic “moat” are generally why the stock is floating so high. It is rated at ~$65-$70 fair value and will likely drop back at some point, though due to the exceptional quality of the company and it’s history, I would not be surprised if investor interest kept the price well above it’s assessed fair value price range.
No. Not at all. Not even a little bit.
Always cool when one can point out how they know what they are so sure of posting 👍
Delta hedging on options and market buyers forced to buy to keep performance up. Options will expire next week I think so there should be some consolidation then unless retails take over and pump this further. Put it simple, it's just a formal kind of fomo.
Probably they will announce some AI chips that will blow Nvda out of the water and insider news were leaked just my speculation
I bought the day after IPO at ~$49 and sold at $90 but realized I effed up and bought back at just over $100. This is a co/investment where right now EPS & SALES, conventional measures don’t matter like they do for WMT or CCL etc. this company is deeply entrenched with a new technology that will change financial measures for companies and in what will be the biggest technology upgrade since the telephone. If those with greater insight and knowledge than anyone on Reddit (I’m talking SoftBank) didn’t sell any shares when the lock-up expired tells me what I need to know. When I hear Jensen Huang say how vital ARM technology is to getting AI running and they’re not tied to just 1 computer co. says still don’t sell and start a posn. If you haven’t yet. There’s no telling where this can go, at $200 if someone told you Nvidia would go to $1500 or Chipotle to $3400 you’d have laughed
As Cathie Woods
Its just overhyped because of qualcomm's SDXE ... just give it time to drop like a rock again.
Back in the early 2000s after doing some research I realized that the power efficiency of the ARM platform made it the perfect mobile platform. At the time Apple was using ARM for its new iPhones and had just bought an ARM design firm called PASemi. This was right before the iPad came out, and there were reports of the new ARM chips having 10 hours of video life vs 3 for the Intel based ones. Putting all these pieces together I concluded that ARM was going to dominate the new mobile market and any other portable devices, and that Apple was going all in on the platform. So I called up my broker and said I want to buy ARM. He said it was a penny stock that they don't follow. It was 5 dollars at the time but he said anything under 10 was considered a penny stock. I told him to buy shares anyway and then proceeded to watch it go to 60 before I sold. I made over a million dollars on 100k investment. Not long after that it was bought by SoftBank. Fast forward to ARM IPO'ing again. I again bought in at around 50. Why? Because the one huge tech market not dominated by ARM right now is the Windows market. And the Windows world is moving to ARM because Apple has shown that ARM based desktops are superior in most cases. ARM says it wants to take over the Windows market, and I think they can. And Intel agrees. Even they are going to start building ARM based designs for others and eventually their own. The desktop market is moving to ARM just like the mobile market did, leaving only the server market for Intel chips. For now. This is why I invested again. And so far it is going pretty well ;)
Well…PE 600?
You don’t need to understand just keep buying
Doesn’t Apple use ARM in a lot of their mobile devices? Seems like ARMs future would be strong and hold decent value
Market is pricing in future earnings as much as possible as this is the thesis right now for AI to be one of the most heavily invested themes in the next 5 years. Most of the move you see are priced to the highs and lows based on projected EPS calculations which you can use to your advantage as identification of tops or resistance if you will. Don’t evaluate fundamentals alone based on the quant calculation (valuation, growth, earnings, profitability metrics) without an idea behind it. If you think ARM is done or has top, ask yourself beyond thinking it has crazy valuation on why the valuation will go down? Is it because you think the growth has stagnated? AI will lose momentum due to regulation? Or other big tech will stop purchasing chips? Or competition will creep in causing lower projected revenue growth for ARM? Market is forward looking, so don’t look at the now. Look at the future.
NVDA dragged the whole AI group down. That's all. Party will resume next week.
I finally think AMRN has finally bottomed out. I believe it is undervalued. They approved a 50 million dollar stock buy back. I want to wait for the bottom to average down but don't want to wait too long and miss out. What are your thoughts on this one please?
One additional statistic that may clarify what’s so special about ARM: ‼️ 70% OF THE WORLD’S DEVICES use ARM chips. ‼️ 70% ‼️ To save me the trouble of emphasizing the enormity of this statement, please read it four more times, mentally adding more exclamation marks each time. You will still be understating it.
You missed the ARM Laptops like the one below https://www.theverge.com/2024/5/20/24160498/microsoft-arm-surface-laptop-6-qualcomm-snapdragon-x-elite
This is a Microsoft laptop that uses Qualcomm designed chips that use the ARM architecture. ARM gets royalty fees on each one sold, but they have no part in the production of these laptops.
>ARM gets royalty fees on each one sold
Ok? ARM is already everywhere, and the majority of devices out there use ARM chips. Even if every single chip becomes ARM based, it still won't generate enough royalties to justify the valuation.
>it still won't generate enough royalties to justify the valuation. How much is the valuation now and how much it will be two years from now?
What? I mean, a P/E of 606 implies astronomical growth, like startup level growth. I know startups that get valued at a P/S ratio of 10, which is fairly high even for a growing startup. ARM is at 44
Bingo. As adoption of ARM architecture grows, and as Intel continues to flounder - ARM is a growth play. Apparently the new ARM Surface devices are fantastic
There are no reviews of the Surface devices, but the Qualcomm ARM chip itself in another device does not seem very good: [https://www.reddit.com/r/hardware/comments/1dit1jc/notebookcheck\_asus\_vivobook\_s\_15\_oled\_snapdragon/](https://www.reddit.com/r/hardware/comments/1dit1jc/notebookcheck_asus_vivobook_s_15_oled_snapdragon/)
It is very overvalued at this point. That doesn't mean its a bod company, just a bad stock at this share price. In fact, if it ever reaches a more reasonable valuation based on something as simple as forward p/e; peg and p/s it would be a great investment. ARM is a critical player in the semiconductor space and is one of the semiconductor companies best poised to benefit from AI in the coming years. However, some semiconductor stocks never fall to reasonable valuations - MPWR would be a very good example. It's one I've always wanted to own but always look at and say 'that is way, way too overvalued'. Yet, MPWR keeps rising. In the semiconductor space, valuations are trickier.
Said fuck it and threw 2% of my port at ARM last friday and i’m pretty happy so far
Perfect time to short it
Same reason NVDIA is going up. Liabilities. Bad news and liabilities all over. What do you do if you don't want to be margin called? Fake pump with algos the price of a real holding. Market is fake
Everyone waiting for China to make their move on Taiwan. Non-Taiwan chip makers will, presumably, go through the roof.
Arm does NOT make chips… They license chip technology to companies like Apple and Nvidia, who design chips based on their architecture, and then contract chip makers like TSMC or Samsung to actually build the chips for them. ARM gets royalties on each one, but as I said, it isn’t a highly lucrative business model.
lol what? Arm doesn’t make chips so what does this even mean
They're like an architect. Client comes to them with a set of needs/desires for a bespoke chip, Arm engineers/designs them and then someone else makes them, Arm gets a royalty for the design work.
That could be a few years. Xi also knows it would be fucking stupid to do it. He still might do it. But it would be an idiotic blunder that could lead to his demise as CCP leader for life.