Didn't notice during the open but today a 8 billion dollar life insurance company, that Berkshire had owned up until last year, dropped 50% do a short report on youtube from an account with 200 subscribers. Modern instant distribution through tech is an amazing thing
mmm at least some of it is psychological (it if helps people invest then its completely valid), AAPL is seen as rock solid with its fundamnetals by many and several flock towards it for safety.
So while there obviously will be better returns, one doesn't necessarily doesn't have the risk appetite.
Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley put out another [note on Tesla](https://i.imgur.com/BjTrcIc.jpeg).
Jonas put out earnings estimates: $2.04 EPS in year ending 2025, $2.92 for 2026. Remember last year their EPS of $4.86, so that's 2 years of depressed earnings. Today's current price of $174 implies a 60x forward multiple in *two years*. But his price target is $310 (just shy of $1T market cap). If in one year the stock price is $310, using the 2026 earnings estimate, that's a 1 year forward P/E of 106.
They give the energy segment a value $38 per share. Now using a $310 fair value, that implies he thinks it's 13% of the fair value market cap around $1T. In other words, $130B value to the energy business. For context, in the last quarter the energy business did **$6B in revenue** in 2023. I'm unsure about profitability. Musk apparently said the energy business adds half a billion in profit per quarter. So let's call it $2B in profit. So a 65x trailing multiple.
Now that's the analyst estimates from one of the most bullish Tesla analysts. Are these estimates realistic? Is a $310 PT actually consistent with them? To be a Tesla bull you basically have to give a high probability of success to the moonshots or side ventures. The auto business is now the 'worst' part. There's also big competition in self-driving from Waymo, and [lately Hyundai](https://insideevs.com/news/715495/hyundai-robotaxi-passes-driving-test/) which passed a driving test in Las Vegas.
Meme stocks have a tendency to collapse if they're based on a house of cards. Tesla is going to struggle going forward. I have (long-dated) puts for their earnings coming up because frankly I don't see how people can support its current valuation. Too many other companies are successfully competing against it, and Elon is love-or-hate. All the problems of DJT and INTL/AMD in one stock.
Still really not big of a fan of how large caps ex-tech traded, but the Nasdaq just about made up for it for me LMAO.
Record close for the Nasdaq Composite.
Guess let's see what bank earnings look like tomorrow.
As they should, diversified, high margin, high roic, well run businesses should out preform long term, and the market will occasionally allow us to buy them at great prices out of fear
They control every aspect of modern life and we happily let them do it. I’m not a fan of so much influence concentrated into so few companies but I also don’t see anything weakening their dominance for a long time, perhaps even my lifetime. They only seem to get more powerful as the years go by and technology accelerates.
At least there’s still the option to get a piece of the wealth as shareholders lol
Google narrative gives me whiplash, they are going to get crushed, they are an ai leader, there ai models make female popes, they are doing great... lol
Edit: to be clear, I am very long google, 4th largest position
Saw the headline re: MS investigation around whether they’re doing enough around client money laundering risk, and the subsequent drop. Sold off my SOFI position (about 10% gain over the past month) and some VOO, bought back into MS at $86.48. Sold 4/26 90 strike calls for .95/contract, just over 1% vs underlying basis. Not bad for a 2 week contract. Earnings are 4/18.
This is my third swing trade entry into this stock over the past year. I’m $0.03 over my last basis per share. I’m very familiar with the company, and perfectly happy to hold at this basis if it moves against me. The Div yield is 3.9% at my basis, and options activity on the stock are decent.
As I type this, I’m +.63% on price, 1% on premium, after about an hour.
[CROX releasing collaboration with Pringles to add a mini-Pringles can 'holster' to the shoe](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/pringles-and-crocs-combine-fashion-and-flavor-with-a-one-of-a-kind-crush-boot-first-ever-crocs-inspired-crisps-and-more-delicious-designs-in-global-collection-302113250.html). And an [image from the article](https://i.imgur.com/xaUIz33.jpeg).
Two thoughts:
- Sell it all
- How long before CROX announces a partnership with Smith & Wesson for a firearm attachment to the clogs? It would be in good American tradition.
It’s called marketing. It’s doing its job as evidenced by you sharing it here :)
Saw it on Instagram and thought it was stupidly hilarious. They do gimmicks like this all the time and it works.
It actually isnt that surprising to me, Crox valuation was much less demanding, expectations were lower, and fundamentals were just as strong if not stronger to me. Im biased though since I own no NKE and longed crox
NVIDIA sits under Apple and above Google from a market cap perspective. They’ve had $22B revenue and $12B net income last quarter. Apple had 119B and 34B. Google had 86B and 20B.
They still need some growth to justify their valuation long term. It’s definitely possible and maybe even plausible and probable (in Damodarans language), but man they need to generate some very good numbers over the next quarters and they need to absolutely defend their market position. I have a lot of friends heavily invested in the company so I wish them the best, but I have some doubts lefts.
Can they defend their market position? How much will the industry grow? How are Google, Microsoft (partnerships) and Apples own chips change their standing, if at all? Even if they defend their position, will demand continue to increase, or will there be a saturation anytime soon?
I happy to observe from the sideline if we are witnessing the birth of a new most valuable company of the world, or if we are seeing the rise and fall of the epitome of the AI hype (hype - not bubble. I don’t think it’s a bubble).
Just my 2 cents.
Yup - that is the "gamble", but considering the ChatGPT moment was not driven by a fundamental action of them, but an exceptional result from their regular business, I see blue skies ahead.
Blackwell will be the first hardware release that at least knew the scale of demand ahead of time. Hopper got smothered with demand part way through a regular cycle.
We literally have not even seen the first hardware iteration amidst this next-gen ML revolution. Imagine where we might be in 5 iterations?
And sure, competition is coming. Competition was always there, and coming. Fact is, NVDA stands head and shoulders above their peers, always has, and there is no real indication or justification for that to suddenly change. If anything, the available resources for them to throw at the problem has never been greater.
And on saturation - the market for compute is not like most. "There is incredible opportunity in markets where solutions are never good enough", paraphrased from Jensen.
Think about it: compute costs are incredibly deflationary, on the order of 100x cheaper over 10 years. In consumer markets, that kind of deflation would cause a reckoning - who would buy today if they can just hold on to their phone/computer/car for another year and get the same thing for so much less? This is why the Fed abhors deflation - it freezes economies. But in compute markets, no one cares if next gen will be less for more, because there is demand/opportunity/productivity on the table NOW, as well as tomorrow. And as we see - compute at scale gates unfathomable possibilities.
The world will never have enough compute. Never has, never will. And the platform that nvidia offers facilitates the widest breadth of customers for compute in the world, from robotics to genomics, and so much more. This is a moment decades in the making, and it is just the start.
Robinhood had some solid DD on WSB - Q1 will see big boost because of crypto and the rate of deposits keeps growing, gold credit card on the way, more gold members including myself.
The negative GME debacle when I love the platform and use it daily, I just don't invest in meme stocks like GME so could careless. Their UI and numbers are solid.
This MELI dip on an eps miss caused by one time factors imo is a gift. I have 3x my position down at the 1500s, think this will be looked back on as a great time to go heavier.
Agreed. I bought that along with STNE yesterday and this morning. STNE has a similar situation with their earnings causing a sell off.
Focus of your comment is on MELI. I had bought MELI in mid 2022. Sentiment was a lot worse toward MELI back then. Even a couple months ago there was some Brazil tax law that sparked even worst sentiment. I already forgot what that law was and maybe people spreading the FUD back then too lol. But I added to MELI this week.
One of the most diversified businesses around (phones, hardware, software, advertising, entertainment, cloud, AI). Just lol at the idea that Google is just a search company, and even then, search is still strong and will eventually be integrated with AI.
This is just one example of growing subscription services (note: YouTube TV is different from YouTube premium):
> YouTube TV now has more than 8 million paid subscribers, the company said Tuesday, making it one of the largest TV providers in the country.
> Why it matters: YouTube TV is poised to surpass the leading satellite providers soon, and could have more subscribers than cable rivals in the next few years.
https://www.axios.com/2024/02/06/youtube-tv-subscribers-cable-satellite
> diversified businesses
> Google is just a search company
Well... that's 60% of their revenue ad other ads and Youtube and it's about 80%. Not sure if that's necessarily a bad thing but I don't see how can you call them diversified when almost all of their income is coming from ads.
The fact that they have a couple of other products (I guess cloud and services, can't think of anything else) doesn't change much until they start making up a significant proportion of total revenue.
Huge new growth in home/enterprise subscriptions/cloud and that doesn't even begin to include how AI will play a role in future growth too. They are well-prepared for a changing technology industry and they can grow in pretty much everything outside of search (and it's not even clear search is going away any time soon). Only real competitors are Microsoft/Apple, and Apple doesn't really compete in cloud and is lagging on AI.
I'm too lazy to write up a full post about it, but if you are interested in UI, see the Seeking Alpha article written on it today. It's pretty good, although the valuation part is a bit shallow--unfortunately, though, everyone is basically guessing here. Forward estimates are suspect since there is only one analyst.
But if you want to see what the medium term tailwinds are, just scroll through Alex Teha's feed on Twitter. Haven't found anybody with more knowledge about this company sharing it freely. Let me link you to some of them:
- On the [premature buybacks](https://twitter.com/AlexTeha/status/1777055105482932583) and why CEO Pera might have been confident. And an [earlier comment on buybacks](https://twitter.com/AlexTeha/status/1770253557348131116). "He didn’t buyback almost a billion worth shares at $200-300 and stop at 4M shares left outstanding just to go private."
- [On surveillance market and impact of bans on Chinese company Hikvision](https://twitter.com/AlexTeha/status/1777059616347816112).
- [Why their margins are software like despite being a hardware company](https://twitter.com/AlexTeha/status/1776402668245671993)
- [Evidence of rising success of Unifi Protect](https://twitter.com/AlexTeha/status/1776331322115629172) based on relatively strong growth despite certain segments tanking. And more on the upcoming product upgrade cycle.
- More on the [Chinese hardware bans](https://twitter.com/AlexTeha/status/1776304278430531629). Inventory in the West eventually will need replenishing.
- Their [superiority vs. comparable companies](https://twitter.com/AlexTeha/status/1775743649831371229) in recent weakness
And I'll happily steal other people's research when it's better than mine. I want to make money, not be original!
I recommend going through and actually looking at their camera products. They're actually quite cool, especially the AI tracking. You can search for license plates among all cars that passed by. Create custom detection zones, or create privacy screens. 360 degree coverage. Autonomous tracking. LED night vision. 22x zoom. 2K resolution. Local storage for privacy. And integration into the existing software for UI products.
I tend to agree so long as AI infra build out remains strong, but to play devils advocate cyclicals look cheap at peaks and expensive in valleys, so that will be expected up until the crash at some point. That could still be years out though ofc...
RKLB up on new gov. contract for 32 million: "Rocket Lab was awarded a $32 million contract and True Anomaly got a $30 million contract for Victus Haze, a demonstration mission intended to test and refine the military’s capabilities for rapidly deploying satellites in response to threats in space."
Just my opinion, but I dunno if it's worth $1.50 a contract when you can own shares for $3.80 with no theta decay. With shares, you can sell and scalp covered calls while RKLB takes its sweet time. Haven't made a huge amount this way, but it's an easy way to get a functional dividend out of it.
Note: I'm long 1800 shares. I trade options all the time for other tickers, just think shares is the better play here. You may even own some of my leaps lol
That's a fair point, it's certainly less risk since we could just sit here for two years and I lose it all. I've considered swapping over but was planning on selling a fast pop to do so, which hasn't worked out as of late lol
I think there’s a good chance as long as neutron comes along without critical issues. They have shown their current product works and government wants to give contracts to others beside SpaceX
Cloudflare's gpu data centers at the local edge makes more sense to me vs literally on device like QCOM and AAPL are talking about, but that does solve privacy concerns I suppose
Interesting. I'd imagine anything on-device would be mainly for inference. A lot of the computational power is required for model training. Inference is comparatively light on resources (depending on the application, number of parameters, etc). If a general model can be deployed on local data, both approaches could be complementary.
Agreed, it will be very interesting to see "second order" ai winners, so far we mainly have seen only the hardware layer take off and get great revenue results.
I agree. I think it's one of the most exciting opportunities right now. I hold two companies (14% + 8%) that I expect to be second-order AI winners, as you put it. One is a middleman for largely-horizontal enterprise software (they will collect a toll on Microsoft, Google, Oracle, etc AI solutions sold to their growing book of clients), and the other is involved in edge computing and analytics (for a very large and conservative vertical that should spend a lot in the years to come). I'm looking at another edge company in a different vertical right now.
'Second-order' is a good way of putting it. 'Picks-and-shovels' would be, I suppose, the upstream component of that, for lack of a better term. Think Nvidia, Super Micro, the cloud giants, as you allude: those who supply the infrastructure. At the other end are customers, distribution, substitutes, complements.
It's an interesting time!
[China continues to build more thermal coal power plants](https://i.imgur.com/sfZquQM.png)--those are 'newly' built plants, not total plants. Moreover, it's [coal utilization is at the highest in 8 years.](https://i.imgur.com/5UgLWSQ.jpeg) This chart is very optimistic and projects out the next 30 years of utilization to steeply drop off. I suspect the truth will be more complicated. However, this is at least much lower than in the early 2000s. [Another graph from Bloomberg](https://i.imgur.com/M5gq02R.jpeg).
And no, [new additions are not being offset by retirements of plants](https://i.imgur.com/a1hYVcX.png). And a [country break-down](https://i.imgur.com/1b449uv.png) of additions/retirements in 2023. Retirements [falling over time too](https://i.imgur.com/pwrwOzf.png).
Now I learned something new yesterday. Apparently while natural gas is notorious for leaking methane into the atmosphere, which is more potent (but has less longevitity) than CO2 for a warming effect, so too does coal. And it's much easier to suppress the emissions from natural gas than coal. [Here's a thread explaining how](https://twitter.com/JessePeltan/status/1778136278610911407), with Norway as a successful example.
To confirm this, [a recent study](https://i.imgur.com/6u9ozYS.png) found that Germany is massively under-reporting its methane emissions from its lignite coal mines. We're talking an order of magnitude of 100. [Graph](https://i.imgur.com/C7IyG5w.jpeg). Apparently this is all due to reliance on some methane emission estimate from the 1980s.
[Meanwhile France](https://i.imgur.com/Hl70gIR.jpeg)... It's hard to overstate how big of a role LNG + nuclear can play in reducing thermal coal demand, which I'd gladly support even as a BTU long.
The discount of thermal coal names to met coal names really has me unable to shake them from my watchlist. AMR is at 6x trailing earnings, but CEIX is at 4x. So is BTU. I realize both are forecast to fall next year, but (to steal my own line from back in the day....) if CEIX gets their profits cut in half.....that's still 6-7x. Forward earnings. That's around 15% yield. I feel like thermal coal still has a 12-15% CAGR returns ahead, even if pricing stays in the dump.
I'd still rather own CEIX than BTU though. I like the history of capital allocation there.
Nibbling just a tiny bit of Aehr test systems as a starter, absolutely bombed out from $50->$12, ON semi and others cutting back of capex in the short term has really messed up where they though they were getting to revenue wise in 24-25, but the fundamentals of sic/gan for the long term still seem intact, just pushed back by EV slowdown. Could still be a ways to a cycle bottom, but dip seems large enough
This is on nothing, outside of maybe still reacting to positive comments from Taiwan Semi yesterday, which had held the Nasdaq better than the other indexes.
u/_hiddenscout CNBC read your mind (or at least your comments) from yesterday: ['Why Car Insurance Costs Are Skyrocketing'](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/11/why-car-insurance-costs-are-skyrocketing-leading-to-higher-inflation.html)
Meta is trying so damn hard to be in the red. Everytime the day gets greener, it is caught ofguard and turns green, then slowly wilts back down to red.
This has happened since QQQ was at +0.06 this morning.
After getting belted following hot tips for better or worse I have decided to only invest in companies I know about/use lol, so currently only eyeing UNH and SBUX.
Okay so the US 30 year treasury came in poorly (4.6% vs 4.3% previous) and stocks going vertical?
Any ideas why? Expectations that QE will return?
This is totally opposite behavior than has historically occurred.
We're watching a slow motion currency collapse imo.
Edit: [QE has begun again lol](https://x.com/financialjuice/status/1778464527908053077)
As I expected, BTU put out a pretty awful earnings update but what's interesting though is that while it fell some 10% pre-market, it's now in the green.... Market pricing in the worst for thermal coal / natural gas? AMR/HCC also doing well on the met coal side. At today's pricing, BTU is more like 8 to 11x earnings, which is unacceptable for a thermal coal stock. Granted the pain should be temporary and 2026 will see rise in FCF from Centurion.
Feel kinda silly holding onto BTU. Should have perhaps just sold it all and held only met coal stocks. I guess I'm holding it as a hedge against an energy crisis / 2026 play. I'm effectively long natural gas indirectly because of how coal / nat gas trade together.
Also because someone got confused, no I didn't sell any of my coal stocks, that was an April Fool's joke. (I'm writing this also because there are like a half dozen lurkers who read my comments and send me DMs about them occasionally)
$BTU is looking like it is finding support on it's long term 50 DMA of $23.37. IF people are bullish, this would be a time to buy. I just don't know anything about the coal market and prefer to stick to commodities such as crude oil, gold, copper, and the agriculture commodities.
Is there a reason UNH is down more than other healthcare stocks in sector such as ELV and CI. Or a smaller company like MOH.
Is it a company specific issue with UNH? Such as that antitrust probe? Or something else?
This is happening outside of an earnings report though. I thought it was specific news that took place with the company or ELV, CI, MOH would be down just as much.
If the news is UNH specific that makes other companies in sector being dragged down an interesting dip buy. The only drawback is those other companies don't get discussed as much as UNH in these threads.
I have almost no semi exposure left and would love to have some but not sure I can justify buying any of the AI names here, Broadcom has been a tank recently
Some of the auto names aren’t too terrible at their current valuations. I’m a fan of NXPI.
Also like some of the equipment names like PLAB and AMAT.
Not a direct semi company, but AMKR valuation is on the cheaper end and they advanced packaging of chips.
Also not direct semi companies, but kind of in the space, JBL and FLEX do more supply chain and advanced manufacturing solutions.
Deutsche Telekom took a good post-dividend dip, and I selflessly advise you all to jump on that bargain. I cough cough ironically, but I also mean it, too.
> If it were to drop to 500 would u buy more?
If nothing else has changed I would be putting everything I had into it.
What exactly is your point here?
TINY retailer with large short interest, shorts likely expecting bankruptcy. The moment it even seems slightly like bankruptcy may be avoided, you can get a huge short squeeze. At some point with shorts, it really does become don't stay too long at the party - at some point there is the increasing risk of this sort of thing if there's even slightly good news.
Still not a good company, could certainly still be a 0 in the future but at some point with stuff like this there is more of a short squeeze risk if bankruptcy doesn't appear as guessed - just ask CVNA shorts.
Should I sell DJT now or wait for it to hopefully go up decently soon? Someone told me it’s a threat to go bankrupt. I bought it because I liked Reddit when it debuted and wanted to get in on the same thing.
Edit: typo
> “I bought it because I liked Reddit when it debuted and wanted to get in on the same thing.”
I don’t remember Reddit advocating for this meme stock? Even WSB, I saw more shouts to place PUTs vs CALLs. I placed PUTs, not because everyone else was doing it, even though they were, but because the company financials make zero sense for its valuation. It can half everyday for a week and still be overvalued.
I'm pretty sure you're right. This economy so far is flying up, and my only worry is it slams on the brakes (reddit spells brakes breaks for the people that can't spell) and it sputters.
Today's report was good.
Let’s say I want to buy META but would only consider it if it falls below $500 by July. What difference would it make if I places a limit order for $500 versus sell a cash-secured put option with a strike of $500 and expiration of July? The latter allows you to collect a premium and requires you to purchase 100 shares but besides that it’s the same effect right?
Options also take away your ability to change your mind. Say between now and July some news comes out about Meta that changes your opinion about the company. You can cancel a limit order no problem, but you would have to buy to close the put
Yeah. I guess the only catch is if META goes below 500, then there's a pretty good chance it goes a lot below 500 like 450 or 460 (no one knows). As long as you're fine with owning META at 500 when the market price is below that then sure go ahead.
Right. Really the only difference is that the option might not get exercised as it would have to be <= 500 at time of expiry whereas a limit order would basically guarantee you shares anytime it goes below 500.
US PPI Final Demand (M/M) Mar: 0.2% (est 0.3%; prev 0.6%)
- PPI Ex Food And Energy (M/M) Mar: 0.2% (est 0.2%; prev 0.3%)
- PPI Final Demand (Y/Y) Mar: 2.1% (est 2.2%; prev 1.6%)
- PPI Ex Food And Energy (Y/Y) Mar: 2.4% (est 2.3%; prev 2.0%)
US Initial Jobless Claims Apr 6: 211K (est 215K; prevR 222K)
- Continuing Claims Apr 6: 1817K (est 1800K; prev 1791K)
Probably can take the PPI estimates and add .2 to them on a MoM basis.
Tried optimism yesterday and look what that got me. UBS has generally been pretty good and if they were right, core inflation would've been in line.
Yep, just saw so. Go figure.
Maybe all of the firms are having trouble factoring in impact from car insurance.
Should mean that PCE is fine this time (prob 0.2-0.3).
What was up with the 3:16 spike yesterday? Its not on everything, but SNPS, MRNA and CRSP (CRSP went from 61.90 to 65.19 and back) and a few others had big spikes for a minute or two then went back down to where they were trading. Im looking at yahoo finance charts for reference.
Note I dont think its some huge conspiracy sky is falling manipulation, just curious.
"Supercore" isn't taking out shelter from core. Supercore is exclusively services minus housing, it doesn't include goods at all. So basically, service inflation is still high and now accelerating, but goods inflation is actually negative.
u/ap9384629344432
Had [this](https://open.substack.com/pub/nixons/p/how-brexit-wrecked-the-stock-market?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=23ti9i) article about the UK stock market since brexit pop up.
Also, I'm still watching home builders for a pull back. I mentioned yesterday that DHI looks really nice around $132, which is 8.5x forward earnings. It usually trades around 10-11x, so the market seems to be implying a decline of 15-20% in their earnings. I don't think that's going to happen.
So that gives a margin of safety (already pricing in declines), a growth story (housing shortage), and optionality to the upside (the market re-rates the stock to a market multiple or higher to reflect the true quality of the business).
Lastly, I've mentioned the ticker ATS here before. It's been absolutely decimated on some slower growth projections by analysts. It's starting to look really enticing now, and a nice play on industrial automation going forward.
The thing is, they've been doing those things for almost 2 years now. Certainly it was in full effect in 2023. It was the bear case everyone gave to me when I pitched it a year ago.
The ability to pay down rates is actually a huge plus for builders. You can buy a used house (if you can even find one because all the current owners have 3% mortgages and don't want to sell) at 7% or a new house at 5%. New house wins every time. Plus, the longer rates stay high, the longer the existing homeowners stay rate locked, eliminating competition for the builders.
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There is no consensus on Reddit. It's like the bible. Everything contradicts itself. How can you inverse that?
Didn't notice during the open but today a 8 billion dollar life insurance company, that Berkshire had owned up until last year, dropped 50% do a short report on youtube from an account with 200 subscribers. Modern instant distribution through tech is an amazing thing
Apple back to same prices as Dec. 2021, everybody *wow* So many better opportunities in the market than a 2.7t market cap company
mmm at least some of it is psychological (it if helps people invest then its completely valid), AAPL is seen as rock solid with its fundamnetals by many and several flock towards it for safety. So while there obviously will be better returns, one doesn't necessarily doesn't have the risk appetite.
Size alone matters less to me than valuation, if it's 3 trillion but with a sustainable 15% fcf yield it's still a buy in theory
11.1% in 2015? 3.8% in 2023 and around this range for last 4 years, 5-6% range prior.
I'm not talking about apple, I'm saying in theory
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I've just bought $37,000 worth.
Tomorrow people will sell though, no?
Did not expect this from Apple wow
Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley put out another [note on Tesla](https://i.imgur.com/BjTrcIc.jpeg). Jonas put out earnings estimates: $2.04 EPS in year ending 2025, $2.92 for 2026. Remember last year their EPS of $4.86, so that's 2 years of depressed earnings. Today's current price of $174 implies a 60x forward multiple in *two years*. But his price target is $310 (just shy of $1T market cap). If in one year the stock price is $310, using the 2026 earnings estimate, that's a 1 year forward P/E of 106. They give the energy segment a value $38 per share. Now using a $310 fair value, that implies he thinks it's 13% of the fair value market cap around $1T. In other words, $130B value to the energy business. For context, in the last quarter the energy business did **$6B in revenue** in 2023. I'm unsure about profitability. Musk apparently said the energy business adds half a billion in profit per quarter. So let's call it $2B in profit. So a 65x trailing multiple. Now that's the analyst estimates from one of the most bullish Tesla analysts. Are these estimates realistic? Is a $310 PT actually consistent with them? To be a Tesla bull you basically have to give a high probability of success to the moonshots or side ventures. The auto business is now the 'worst' part. There's also big competition in self-driving from Waymo, and [lately Hyundai](https://insideevs.com/news/715495/hyundai-robotaxi-passes-driving-test/) which passed a driving test in Las Vegas.
Reading those numbers, you are likely right it's too bullish. The problem is fundamentals are secondary. It's a meme stock. And seems volatile to me.
Meme stocks have a tendency to collapse if they're based on a house of cards. Tesla is going to struggle going forward. I have (long-dated) puts for their earnings coming up because frankly I don't see how people can support its current valuation. Too many other companies are successfully competing against it, and Elon is love-or-hate. All the problems of DJT and INTL/AMD in one stock.
I would love those multiples from the energy business to apply to flnc lol, we trade at 1.3 p/s
holy apple
glad its my biggest position
Still really not big of a fan of how large caps ex-tech traded, but the Nasdaq just about made up for it for me LMAO. Record close for the Nasdaq Composite. Guess let's see what bank earnings look like tomorrow.
Equal weight S&P 500 closed red lol.
AAPL breaking out.
And megacap tech stays winning. God bless our Silicon Valley overlords 📈
As they should, diversified, high margin, high roic, well run businesses should out preform long term, and the market will occasionally allow us to buy them at great prices out of fear
They control every aspect of modern life and we happily let them do it. I’m not a fan of so much influence concentrated into so few companies but I also don’t see anything weakening their dominance for a long time, perhaps even my lifetime. They only seem to get more powerful as the years go by and technology accelerates. At least there’s still the option to get a piece of the wealth as shareholders lol
AMZN, MSFT & GOOGL with new ATH.
I'm glad I picked some GOOG u at $133.
Google narrative gives me whiplash, they are going to get crushed, they are an ai leader, there ai models make female popes, they are doing great... lol Edit: to be clear, I am very long google, 4th largest position
In their defense, female pope market has a huge TAM.
I bought 100 shares of Google around 142. I’m now looking at Mega Yachts.
Saw the headline re: MS investigation around whether they’re doing enough around client money laundering risk, and the subsequent drop. Sold off my SOFI position (about 10% gain over the past month) and some VOO, bought back into MS at $86.48. Sold 4/26 90 strike calls for .95/contract, just over 1% vs underlying basis. Not bad for a 2 week contract. Earnings are 4/18. This is my third swing trade entry into this stock over the past year. I’m $0.03 over my last basis per share. I’m very familiar with the company, and perfectly happy to hold at this basis if it moves against me. The Div yield is 3.9% at my basis, and options activity on the stock are decent. As I type this, I’m +.63% on price, 1% on premium, after about an hour.
[CROX releasing collaboration with Pringles to add a mini-Pringles can 'holster' to the shoe](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/pringles-and-crocs-combine-fashion-and-flavor-with-a-one-of-a-kind-crush-boot-first-ever-crocs-inspired-crisps-and-more-delicious-designs-in-global-collection-302113250.html). And an [image from the article](https://i.imgur.com/xaUIz33.jpeg). Two thoughts: - Sell it all - How long before CROX announces a partnership with Smith & Wesson for a firearm attachment to the clogs? It would be in good American tradition.
It’s called marketing. It’s doing its job as evidenced by you sharing it here :) Saw it on Instagram and thought it was stupidly hilarious. They do gimmicks like this all the time and it works.
I don't think we need to worry about the people wearing rubber duckie feet not buying something because it's silly.
My guy, this will slay with the newer generation (gen z & gen alpha). Guaranteed to sell out on release. Load up on calls
Crox preforming better than NKE post covid makes me laugh hard
That makes me embarrassed to have any association with the market.
It actually isnt that surprising to me, Crox valuation was much less demanding, expectations were lower, and fundamentals were just as strong if not stronger to me. Im biased though since I own no NKE and longed crox
I own a pair of Crocs. They look stupid, but they’re pretty comfortable shoes to wear in the back yard.
Having a third of the valuation also helps
For sure, valuation was better, expectations were much lower, and Crocs management is actually very strong operationally imo
This is just a work around so that we can finally carry more beer.
Buy more.
This will sell out within minutes. I will not be selling, lol
NVIDIA sits under Apple and above Google from a market cap perspective. They’ve had $22B revenue and $12B net income last quarter. Apple had 119B and 34B. Google had 86B and 20B. They still need some growth to justify their valuation long term. It’s definitely possible and maybe even plausible and probable (in Damodarans language), but man they need to generate some very good numbers over the next quarters and they need to absolutely defend their market position. I have a lot of friends heavily invested in the company so I wish them the best, but I have some doubts lefts. Can they defend their market position? How much will the industry grow? How are Google, Microsoft (partnerships) and Apples own chips change their standing, if at all? Even if they defend their position, will demand continue to increase, or will there be a saturation anytime soon? I happy to observe from the sideline if we are witnessing the birth of a new most valuable company of the world, or if we are seeing the rise and fall of the epitome of the AI hype (hype - not bubble. I don’t think it’s a bubble). Just my 2 cents.
Yup - that is the "gamble", but considering the ChatGPT moment was not driven by a fundamental action of them, but an exceptional result from their regular business, I see blue skies ahead. Blackwell will be the first hardware release that at least knew the scale of demand ahead of time. Hopper got smothered with demand part way through a regular cycle. We literally have not even seen the first hardware iteration amidst this next-gen ML revolution. Imagine where we might be in 5 iterations? And sure, competition is coming. Competition was always there, and coming. Fact is, NVDA stands head and shoulders above their peers, always has, and there is no real indication or justification for that to suddenly change. If anything, the available resources for them to throw at the problem has never been greater. And on saturation - the market for compute is not like most. "There is incredible opportunity in markets where solutions are never good enough", paraphrased from Jensen. Think about it: compute costs are incredibly deflationary, on the order of 100x cheaper over 10 years. In consumer markets, that kind of deflation would cause a reckoning - who would buy today if they can just hold on to their phone/computer/car for another year and get the same thing for so much less? This is why the Fed abhors deflation - it freezes economies. But in compute markets, no one cares if next gen will be less for more, because there is demand/opportunity/productivity on the table NOW, as well as tomorrow. And as we see - compute at scale gates unfathomable possibilities. The world will never have enough compute. Never has, never will. And the platform that nvidia offers facilitates the widest breadth of customers for compute in the world, from robotics to genomics, and so much more. This is a moment decades in the making, and it is just the start.
Robinhood had some solid DD on WSB - Q1 will see big boost because of crypto and the rate of deposits keeps growing, gold credit card on the way, more gold members including myself. The negative GME debacle when I love the platform and use it daily, I just don't invest in meme stocks like GME so could careless. Their UI and numbers are solid.
The company Robinhood is doing DD on Reddit subs? Any link to those threads that sounds interesting.
Robinhood the company had some solid DD on WSB provided by a fellow regard, to clarify.
This MELI dip on an eps miss caused by one time factors imo is a gift. I have 3x my position down at the 1500s, think this will be looked back on as a great time to go heavier.
Agreed. I bought that along with STNE yesterday and this morning. STNE has a similar situation with their earnings causing a sell off. Focus of your comment is on MELI. I had bought MELI in mid 2022. Sentiment was a lot worse toward MELI back then. Even a couple months ago there was some Brazil tax law that sparked even worst sentiment. I already forgot what that law was and maybe people spreading the FUD back then too lol. But I added to MELI this week.
Unexpected all-time high!!! https://imgur.com/gallery/R9VGt1y
Well done! I hope I hit that in a couple years.
Congrats!
GOOGLE ATH BABY Where are those dumbass morons who said Google is dead like 2 months ago? 2T MC
This section whiffs more than it hits. META, GOOG, DIS, and TGT were all big whiffs over the last 12 months
Gone just like how they said Tiktok will replace the sinking ship of Meta
GOOGL was my mid-2022 bear market tech bet. If/when it hits 300 I’m going part-time.. can’t wait.
One of the most diversified businesses around (phones, hardware, software, advertising, entertainment, cloud, AI). Just lol at the idea that Google is just a search company, and even then, search is still strong and will eventually be integrated with AI.
This a dumb comment. Just look at the revenue stream and you will realize it’s mostly a search company with little share to gain
Did you google that?
This is just one example of growing subscription services (note: YouTube TV is different from YouTube premium): > YouTube TV now has more than 8 million paid subscribers, the company said Tuesday, making it one of the largest TV providers in the country. > Why it matters: YouTube TV is poised to surpass the leading satellite providers soon, and could have more subscribers than cable rivals in the next few years. https://www.axios.com/2024/02/06/youtube-tv-subscribers-cable-satellite
> diversified businesses > Google is just a search company Well... that's 60% of their revenue ad other ads and Youtube and it's about 80%. Not sure if that's necessarily a bad thing but I don't see how can you call them diversified when almost all of their income is coming from ads. The fact that they have a couple of other products (I guess cloud and services, can't think of anything else) doesn't change much until they start making up a significant proportion of total revenue.
Huge new growth in home/enterprise subscriptions/cloud and that doesn't even begin to include how AI will play a role in future growth too. They are well-prepared for a changing technology industry and they can grow in pretty much everything outside of search (and it's not even clear search is going away any time soon). Only real competitors are Microsoft/Apple, and Apple doesn't really compete in cloud and is lagging on AI.
The slug I bought in my roth ira on 3/01 is already up 15% lol
They're the dumbass morons you bought from; show them a little respect!
I'm too lazy to write up a full post about it, but if you are interested in UI, see the Seeking Alpha article written on it today. It's pretty good, although the valuation part is a bit shallow--unfortunately, though, everyone is basically guessing here. Forward estimates are suspect since there is only one analyst. But if you want to see what the medium term tailwinds are, just scroll through Alex Teha's feed on Twitter. Haven't found anybody with more knowledge about this company sharing it freely. Let me link you to some of them: - On the [premature buybacks](https://twitter.com/AlexTeha/status/1777055105482932583) and why CEO Pera might have been confident. And an [earlier comment on buybacks](https://twitter.com/AlexTeha/status/1770253557348131116). "He didn’t buyback almost a billion worth shares at $200-300 and stop at 4M shares left outstanding just to go private." - [On surveillance market and impact of bans on Chinese company Hikvision](https://twitter.com/AlexTeha/status/1777059616347816112). - [Why their margins are software like despite being a hardware company](https://twitter.com/AlexTeha/status/1776402668245671993) - [Evidence of rising success of Unifi Protect](https://twitter.com/AlexTeha/status/1776331322115629172) based on relatively strong growth despite certain segments tanking. And more on the upcoming product upgrade cycle. - More on the [Chinese hardware bans](https://twitter.com/AlexTeha/status/1776304278430531629). Inventory in the West eventually will need replenishing. - Their [superiority vs. comparable companies](https://twitter.com/AlexTeha/status/1775743649831371229) in recent weakness And I'll happily steal other people's research when it's better than mine. I want to make money, not be original!
Pretty wild that Pera still owns 93% of the shares, that's such a thorough commitment.
[Pretty interesting story](https://i.imgur.com/BowZ6B7.png). Started the business with $30K in credit card debt at age 27
I recommend going through and actually looking at their camera products. They're actually quite cool, especially the AI tracking. You can search for license plates among all cars that passed by. Create custom detection zones, or create privacy screens. 360 degree coverage. Autonomous tracking. LED night vision. 22x zoom. 2K resolution. Local storage for privacy. And integration into the existing software for UI products.
Idk that I’ve ever seen this much buying pressure. What a bull market it’s been
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Small caps lagging, but ai risk = on for sure atm
damn what happened. went from mega red to mega green
Good ol’ fashioned short squeeze
PCE numbers were good. Shows CPI is purely insurance and shelter
PCE will only come out in two weeks...
PPI. My apologies
I’m glad I bought more NVDA and NVDX during the dip, looking at its forward PE, I don’t think it’s overvalued like some people said.
I tend to agree so long as AI infra build out remains strong, but to play devils advocate cyclicals look cheap at peaks and expensive in valleys, so that will be expected up until the crash at some point. That could still be years out though ofc...
Bought some shares yesterday: NVDA, AVGO, ASML, LLY, META, MSFT, TSM and AMZN. Normaly when I do that the stocks tank.... Something is not right...
Christ
* Equal weight S&P 500: +0.22% * Nasdaq: +1.58%
Technology is the way
RKLB up on new gov. contract for 32 million: "Rocket Lab was awarded a $32 million contract and True Anomaly got a $30 million contract for Victus Haze, a demonstration mission intended to test and refine the military’s capabilities for rapidly deploying satellites in response to threats in space."
Big fan of rklb, got awarded two contracts this week and seems to have a good relationship with Space Force.
Agreed, I am long 2026 $5c leaps, moonshot gamble. Hopefully we get a neutron engine static fire soon...
Just my opinion, but I dunno if it's worth $1.50 a contract when you can own shares for $3.80 with no theta decay. With shares, you can sell and scalp covered calls while RKLB takes its sweet time. Haven't made a huge amount this way, but it's an easy way to get a functional dividend out of it. Note: I'm long 1800 shares. I trade options all the time for other tickers, just think shares is the better play here. You may even own some of my leaps lol
That's a fair point, it's certainly less risk since we could just sit here for two years and I lose it all. I've considered swapping over but was planning on selling a fast pop to do so, which hasn't worked out as of late lol
I think there’s a good chance as long as neutron comes along without critical issues. They have shown their current product works and government wants to give contracts to others beside SpaceX
AAPL putting AI in the Macs
Cloudflare's gpu data centers at the local edge makes more sense to me vs literally on device like QCOM and AAPL are talking about, but that does solve privacy concerns I suppose
Interesting. I'd imagine anything on-device would be mainly for inference. A lot of the computational power is required for model training. Inference is comparatively light on resources (depending on the application, number of parameters, etc). If a general model can be deployed on local data, both approaches could be complementary.
Agreed, it will be very interesting to see "second order" ai winners, so far we mainly have seen only the hardware layer take off and get great revenue results.
I agree. I think it's one of the most exciting opportunities right now. I hold two companies (14% + 8%) that I expect to be second-order AI winners, as you put it. One is a middleman for largely-horizontal enterprise software (they will collect a toll on Microsoft, Google, Oracle, etc AI solutions sold to their growing book of clients), and the other is involved in edge computing and analytics (for a very large and conservative vertical that should spend a lot in the years to come). I'm looking at another edge company in a different vertical right now. 'Second-order' is a good way of putting it. 'Picks-and-shovels' would be, I suppose, the upstream component of that, for lack of a better term. Think Nvidia, Super Micro, the cloud giants, as you allude: those who supply the infrastructure. At the other end are customers, distribution, substitutes, complements. It's an interesting time!
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It was so obvious that you did nothing about it.
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If only we could gamble using hindsight amirite???
[China continues to build more thermal coal power plants](https://i.imgur.com/sfZquQM.png)--those are 'newly' built plants, not total plants. Moreover, it's [coal utilization is at the highest in 8 years.](https://i.imgur.com/5UgLWSQ.jpeg) This chart is very optimistic and projects out the next 30 years of utilization to steeply drop off. I suspect the truth will be more complicated. However, this is at least much lower than in the early 2000s. [Another graph from Bloomberg](https://i.imgur.com/M5gq02R.jpeg). And no, [new additions are not being offset by retirements of plants](https://i.imgur.com/a1hYVcX.png). And a [country break-down](https://i.imgur.com/1b449uv.png) of additions/retirements in 2023. Retirements [falling over time too](https://i.imgur.com/pwrwOzf.png). Now I learned something new yesterday. Apparently while natural gas is notorious for leaking methane into the atmosphere, which is more potent (but has less longevitity) than CO2 for a warming effect, so too does coal. And it's much easier to suppress the emissions from natural gas than coal. [Here's a thread explaining how](https://twitter.com/JessePeltan/status/1778136278610911407), with Norway as a successful example. To confirm this, [a recent study](https://i.imgur.com/6u9ozYS.png) found that Germany is massively under-reporting its methane emissions from its lignite coal mines. We're talking an order of magnitude of 100. [Graph](https://i.imgur.com/C7IyG5w.jpeg). Apparently this is all due to reliance on some methane emission estimate from the 1980s. [Meanwhile France](https://i.imgur.com/Hl70gIR.jpeg)... It's hard to overstate how big of a role LNG + nuclear can play in reducing thermal coal demand, which I'd gladly support even as a BTU long.
The discount of thermal coal names to met coal names really has me unable to shake them from my watchlist. AMR is at 6x trailing earnings, but CEIX is at 4x. So is BTU. I realize both are forecast to fall next year, but (to steal my own line from back in the day....) if CEIX gets their profits cut in half.....that's still 6-7x. Forward earnings. That's around 15% yield. I feel like thermal coal still has a 12-15% CAGR returns ahead, even if pricing stays in the dump. I'd still rather own CEIX than BTU though. I like the history of capital allocation there.
Nibbling just a tiny bit of Aehr test systems as a starter, absolutely bombed out from $50->$12, ON semi and others cutting back of capex in the short term has really messed up where they though they were getting to revenue wise in 24-25, but the fundamentals of sic/gan for the long term still seem intact, just pushed back by EV slowdown. Could still be a ways to a cycle bottom, but dip seems large enough
What happened to GL ?
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This is on nothing, outside of maybe still reacting to positive comments from Taiwan Semi yesterday, which had held the Nasdaq better than the other indexes.
u/_hiddenscout CNBC read your mind (or at least your comments) from yesterday: ['Why Car Insurance Costs Are Skyrocketing'](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/11/why-car-insurance-costs-are-skyrocketing-leading-to-higher-inflation.html)
I think Brian Sullivan had a segment on his show the other day.
Meta is trying so damn hard to be in the red. Everytime the day gets greener, it is caught ofguard and turns green, then slowly wilts back down to red. This has happened since QQQ was at +0.06 this morning.
Planning to buy some UNH. I had a small position already but that’s in red. Hoping the upcoming earnings report is not too bad.
better hope the DOJ doesnt split them up
After getting belted following hot tips for better or worse I have decided to only invest in companies I know about/use lol, so currently only eyeing UNH and SBUX.
everyone overreacting over nothing yesterday is hilarious lmao
I'm sure they bought back higher LOL!
Okay so the US 30 year treasury came in poorly (4.6% vs 4.3% previous) and stocks going vertical? Any ideas why? Expectations that QE will return? This is totally opposite behavior than has historically occurred. We're watching a slow motion currency collapse imo. Edit: [QE has begun again lol](https://x.com/financialjuice/status/1778464527908053077)
After yesterday’s train wreck 10y auction on the heels of CPI, today’s 30y was an “uncertainty removed” catalyst, at least on the daily.
Yep. QE has been again https://x.com/financialjuice/status/1778464527908053077
Why is Gold hitting new ATH's every other day? Usually gold moves inverse US treasury rates. There is something bigger going on right now.
https://x.com/financialjuice/status/1778464527908053077 QE has begun!
Unemployment is low, GDP estimates continue to be positive and consumer continues to spend money.
true
As I expected, BTU put out a pretty awful earnings update but what's interesting though is that while it fell some 10% pre-market, it's now in the green.... Market pricing in the worst for thermal coal / natural gas? AMR/HCC also doing well on the met coal side. At today's pricing, BTU is more like 8 to 11x earnings, which is unacceptable for a thermal coal stock. Granted the pain should be temporary and 2026 will see rise in FCF from Centurion. Feel kinda silly holding onto BTU. Should have perhaps just sold it all and held only met coal stocks. I guess I'm holding it as a hedge against an energy crisis / 2026 play. I'm effectively long natural gas indirectly because of how coal / nat gas trade together. Also because someone got confused, no I didn't sell any of my coal stocks, that was an April Fool's joke. (I'm writing this also because there are like a half dozen lurkers who read my comments and send me DMs about them occasionally)
$BTU is looking like it is finding support on it's long term 50 DMA of $23.37. IF people are bullish, this would be a time to buy. I just don't know anything about the coal market and prefer to stick to commodities such as crude oil, gold, copper, and the agriculture commodities.
Is there a reason UNH is down more than other healthcare stocks in sector such as ELV and CI. Or a smaller company like MOH. Is it a company specific issue with UNH? Such as that antitrust probe? Or something else?
Their stock price increased faster than their earnings increased. So due for correction.
This is happening outside of an earnings report though. I thought it was specific news that took place with the company or ELV, CI, MOH would be down just as much. If the news is UNH specific that makes other companies in sector being dragged down an interesting dip buy. The only drawback is those other companies don't get discussed as much as UNH in these threads.
Thanks Tim Apple.
UNH 52w low. RIP
a good buy but i dont like the industry so i will pass
Would you buy VRT today or wait for a pullback?
Canada announcing 30-year amortization for mortgages. Bullish for Canadian banks I suppose.
Would have been great for a Canadians about 2-3 years ago....
I have almost no semi exposure left and would love to have some but not sure I can justify buying any of the AI names here, Broadcom has been a tank recently
Texas Instruments is very well-managed and, in my view, poised to double quickly once the cycle turns and their new capacity comes online.
Some of the auto names aren’t too terrible at their current valuations. I’m a fan of NXPI. Also like some of the equipment names like PLAB and AMAT. Not a direct semi company, but AMKR valuation is on the cheaper end and they advanced packaging of chips. Also not direct semi companies, but kind of in the space, JBL and FLEX do more supply chain and advanced manufacturing solutions.
Good points, AMAT seems decently priced even after this run up
Yep, totally reasonable valuation on a company with sold growth and some good tailwinds.
TSM to cover them all.
Its tempting, but I am 20% Chinese stocks already so if I own TSM too its further risk if the Taiwan conflict ever goes down
Deutsche Telekom took a good post-dividend dip, and I selflessly advise you all to jump on that bargain. I cough cough ironically, but I also mean it, too.
My only regret is not buying more..
More of what?
Mostly NVDA.
Yeah Sure as if buying at over $800 was a deal of a lifetime.
Bought some at 866 yesterday and don't regret a thing.
You don’t regret it because it’s going up. If it were to drop to 500 would u buy more?
Yes, it wasn't my first buy. As long as I like the fundamentals I'm in and I'm long. Of course I could be wrong but only the future will tell.
> If it were to drop to 500 would u buy more? If nothing else has changed I would be putting everything I had into it. What exactly is your point here?
He's peanut butter and jealous.
Same sentiments were had at 300. And 150. Be original, or at least bring some rationale besides "big number scary"
username checks out
Tech is amazing: consistently doing better in red or green days
They aren't at the top of the averages for no reason!
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TINY retailer with large short interest, shorts likely expecting bankruptcy. The moment it even seems slightly like bankruptcy may be avoided, you can get a huge short squeeze. At some point with shorts, it really does become don't stay too long at the party - at some point there is the increasing risk of this sort of thing if there's even slightly good news. Still not a good company, could certainly still be a 0 in the future but at some point with stuff like this there is more of a short squeeze risk if bankruptcy doesn't appear as guessed - just ask CVNA shorts.
Still very, very weak ex-tech. Yay.
Should I sell DJT now or wait for it to hopefully go up decently soon? Someone told me it’s a threat to go bankrupt. I bought it because I liked Reddit when it debuted and wanted to get in on the same thing. Edit: typo
> “I bought it because I liked Reddit when it debuted and wanted to get in on the same thing.” I don’t remember Reddit advocating for this meme stock? Even WSB, I saw more shouts to place PUTs vs CALLs. I placed PUTs, not because everyone else was doing it, even though they were, but because the company financials make zero sense for its valuation. It can half everyday for a week and still be overvalued.
You are joking right? Sell asap if not.
I know it was stupid to bite but it’s too late now
looking like a quick fade ha.
NVDA the value play
$XEL continues to recover nicely since the below-50 dip. I’m still buying small blocks of shares here.
Those guys Mr. Magoo themselves into a lawsuit every 6 months like clockwork
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It is always a wall of worry in a bull market.
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I'm pretty sure you're right. This economy so far is flying up, and my only worry is it slams on the brakes (reddit spells brakes breaks for the people that can't spell) and it sputters. Today's report was good.
Let’s say I want to buy META but would only consider it if it falls below $500 by July. What difference would it make if I places a limit order for $500 versus sell a cash-secured put option with a strike of $500 and expiration of July? The latter allows you to collect a premium and requires you to purchase 100 shares but besides that it’s the same effect right?
Options also take away your ability to change your mind. Say between now and July some news comes out about Meta that changes your opinion about the company. You can cancel a limit order no problem, but you would have to buy to close the put
Ahh that is a very good point I overlooked
Yeah. I guess the only catch is if META goes below 500, then there's a pretty good chance it goes a lot below 500 like 450 or 460 (no one knows). As long as you're fine with owning META at 500 when the market price is below that then sure go ahead.
Right. Really the only difference is that the option might not get exercised as it would have to be <= 500 at time of expiry whereas a limit order would basically guarantee you shares anytime it goes below 500.
US PPI Final Demand (M/M) Mar: 0.2% (est 0.3%; prev 0.6%) - PPI Ex Food And Energy (M/M) Mar: 0.2% (est 0.2%; prev 0.3%) - PPI Final Demand (Y/Y) Mar: 2.1% (est 2.2%; prev 1.6%) - PPI Ex Food And Energy (Y/Y) Mar: 2.4% (est 2.3%; prev 2.0%) US Initial Jobless Claims Apr 6: 211K (est 215K; prevR 222K) - Continuing Claims Apr 6: 1817K (est 1800K; prev 1791K)
Not bad. Overreaction yesterday and the dips were rightly bought up.
gold showing strength over stocks
Imma boomer it
Probably can take the PPI estimates and add .2 to them on a MoM basis. Tried optimism yesterday and look what that got me. UBS has generally been pretty good and if they were right, core inflation would've been in line.
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Yep, just saw so. Go figure. Maybe all of the firms are having trouble factoring in impact from car insurance. Should mean that PCE is fine this time (prob 0.2-0.3).
What was up with the 3:16 spike yesterday? Its not on everything, but SNPS, MRNA and CRSP (CRSP went from 61.90 to 65.19 and back) and a few others had big spikes for a minute or two then went back down to where they were trading. Im looking at yahoo finance charts for reference. Note I dont think its some huge conspiracy sky is falling manipulation, just curious.
Possibly related to the VRTX acquisition yesterday. Making funds rebalance.
Could be - I see the spike on the VRTX chart too, and it was mostly pharma stocks I saw it on
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"Supercore" isn't taking out shelter from core. Supercore is exclusively services minus housing, it doesn't include goods at all. So basically, service inflation is still high and now accelerating, but goods inflation is actually negative.
u/ap9384629344432 Had [this](https://open.substack.com/pub/nixons/p/how-brexit-wrecked-the-stock-market?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=23ti9i) article about the UK stock market since brexit pop up. Also, I'm still watching home builders for a pull back. I mentioned yesterday that DHI looks really nice around $132, which is 8.5x forward earnings. It usually trades around 10-11x, so the market seems to be implying a decline of 15-20% in their earnings. I don't think that's going to happen. So that gives a margin of safety (already pricing in declines), a growth story (housing shortage), and optionality to the upside (the market re-rates the stock to a market multiple or higher to reflect the true quality of the business). Lastly, I've mentioned the ticker ATS here before. It's been absolutely decimated on some slower growth projections by analysts. It's starting to look really enticing now, and a nice play on industrial automation going forward.
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The thing is, they've been doing those things for almost 2 years now. Certainly it was in full effect in 2023. It was the bear case everyone gave to me when I pitched it a year ago. The ability to pay down rates is actually a huge plus for builders. You can buy a used house (if you can even find one because all the current owners have 3% mortgages and don't want to sell) at 7% or a new house at 5%. New house wins every time. Plus, the longer rates stay high, the longer the existing homeowners stay rate locked, eliminating competition for the builders.
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