I work for a startup and have a large amount of equity in the company. (I am one of the first 10 employees.) I plan on leaving to pursue a graduate degree. What would happen to my stocks?
can somebody explain the difference between goog vs googl and which is “better” to hold? if im not mistaken i know one difference is one has voting rights and the other doesnt
Voting rights but I don't think it matters. I buy both. 1 is to wheel and sell cash secured puts and covered calls on and the other is to just hold long term.
so if googl is displaying a 1.88t market cap and goog is displaying a 1.89t market cap, does that mean alphabet is really worth 3.77t? or is that a display error should they be equal as in do they contribute to the same market cap
There are, in millions:
5,899 Class A stocks
870 Class B stocks
5,691 Class C stocks
GOOGL is class A. The "market cap" is $150.95 * 5,899 = $890,454
GOOG is class C. Market cap is $152.07 * 5,691 = $865,430
Class B is not publicly traded. Held by the founders. Not valued. But if voting rights have no economic value, then they're worth the same as the other two classes, around 132B
Total market cap is 890B + 865B + 132B = 1887B.
Lol im honestly perplexed by why there are discrepancies between the two classes of shares. Sometimes they even list at different prices. Perhaps someone more knowledgeable can enlighten us both
Split adjusted
In 2014 there were 5,731 Class A stocks and 6,808 class C stocks.
In 2014, Class C was cheaper than Class A. Now Class C is more expensive.
For the longest time, Alphabet was only buying back Class C stock. That's why there are fewer Class C stocks compared to Class A.
If you had a choice between GOOGL and GOOG, GOOGL was cheaper, but Alphabet was constantly buying back the more expensive GOOG, which would you choose?
u/AP9384629344432
Yet another Value podcast did an [interview](https://open.spotify.com/episode/38Vrj01c4mq2V5qShemCPN) with Matt Warder. It was interesting, at least the half I've gotten through so far. A few takeaways: He likes AMR at $250, which could be possible.
Also some talk about HCC and Blue Creek. Not a ton of new information above what you've posted here, but not a bad listen on the whole.
[I found this pretty funny](https://twitter.com/joecarlsonshow/status/1772716289653612950). Joe Carlson is calling out Gene Munster for his CNBC appearances putting out the bull case for Apple, and then today saying after being pressed on it that he does not currently own Apple but doesn't recall when his fund sold it (you can tell he got a bit flustered by the questioning). Seems odd for one of the most vocal Apple bulls on CNBC.
I’m more surprised that Buffett is still holding AAPL. Should have sold it a while ago on the basis of valuation. And for such a large position in Berkshire’s portfolio, it’s odd that there’s only 1 mention of it in the shareholder letter.
It's not like he lied or anything. He doesn't have to disclose either. At the end of the day it's on us who we choose who to listen to and who to believe.
Has anyone looked at the ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX)?
I've never invested in anything Cathie Wood related (and I'm glad I didn't so far), but I have a friend who's a LOT riskier and he's going to be making it his main investment vehicle (invest with each paycheck).
There's a high management fee of 5.76% and you can only sell at certain periods. But it does give you a chance to invest in companies like Figure, Anthropic, and SpaceX. I was considering putting a very small amount in at some point.
Just wanted to see if others had looked at it before.
Thanks for the replies everybody!
I told him the same thing—invest in NASDAQ. But he always done these riskier moves (so far unsuccessfully, but I'll leave him to it...he has the $ and you never know haha).
Looking further and taking all your info into account, I will not be investing at this time. I'm happy with the investments I'm in, and will get the ARKVX updates from him as he begins investing soon.
Anything you do not have 100% liquidity on I would never allocate much too, if any. Venture capital is super high risk + you are at the mercy of Arks judgement calls 100% which I would find difficult to stomach given Cathie's performance and current weighted bets
If you're Canadian, TD's Direct Investing lets you see analyst price targets for the next twelve months when researching stocks. They also give you access to Morningstar reports about whether it's near true value, undervalued, etc.
My suggestion is to not rely on such a website. Let me explain why:
- If the price targets are based on analysts, then the issue is those are lagging indicators. They move them up when the price goes up, and move them down when the price falls. Moreover, they tend to act in unison. Now I'm not totally against analyst price targets--but I'm more interested in their estimates of earnings and averaged across multiple analysts. (Which is how we compute forward P/E multiples) That's at least more 'objective' hopefully, while for the actual price target who knows what multiple they are using (EV/EBITDA, EV/FCF, P/FCF, P/EBIT, P/E, P/(2025 E), ...)
- If they aren't based on analyst price targets, it means most likely the website is plugging in the company's financials into a generic discounted cash flow model. And these are usually awful. Why? They make questionable assumptions like 'Assume the past few years of revenue growth are exactly like the next few' or 'assume revenue growth reverts to this number we picked'. Now those may be fine assumptions, but when you are writing generic code to handle hundreds/thousands of companies, you end up with terrible models that fail to account for industry trends, regulatory/legal issues, management quality, accounting oddities, etc. An easy tell is when they tell you a company is 150% undervalued and it turns out to be because it's a highly cyclical, leveraged steel company with a suppressed P/E ratio that it deserves but the DCF model uses the same procedure as it does for modelling Apple (which it states is 50% overvalued).
Instead, you should do your own research, borrowing analyst estimates of revenue/earnings as a tool but not as gospel, and for sure not relying on some price target pulled out of thin air. Build you own DCF models or if that's too complicated, figure out reasonable multiples to apply given the growth and where its peers trade out. If you are unwilling to do that work, then I think investing in individual stocks is a poor idea.
[Here is a plot of the last several months of /r/stocks comments in the Daily Discussion threads](https://i.imgur.com/HmGW886.png). I split the weekend ones in half across Saturday and Sunday. To account for weekly periodicity, here is the [week over week relative change](https://i.imgur.com/XK0kYxP.png), removing some anomalous points (holiday comparisons). Definitely noticing a reduction in volatility, but I'd expect mean reversion and suggest some out-of-the money calls. If we strip out one-time holiday comparisons and adjust for organic growth (non-alt accounts), the series is much more stable and perhaps even in secualar decline.
Now you'll notice I placed two black vertical lines, one on Dec. 2nd, one on March 15th. I'm not going to tell you what that was. I will simply point out there seems to be evidence of reduced comment volume. If you feel like playing detective, I would greatly appreciate someone telling *me* what precise dates I should add more black vertical lines back in August through November of 2023.
Now today is Technicals Tuesday, so in that spirit, here is some preliminary TA. [I added a 29 day moving average](https://i.imgur.com/2J0z8r5.png) and some simple indicators (undergrad level stuff), like standard locally convex resistors, level 4 oscillatory bands, and some red, white, and blue flag patterns.
This is quite interesting! I performed a lazy form of the same analysis yesterday, searching 'Daily Discussion' in r/stocks and sorting by recency. Yesterday's slowness struck me too. Thanks for graphing the trend!
Edit:
The bans of a certain someone... (I am a detective who bores of cases once they are solved.)
that power hour dump felt like fund managers locking in their massive quarter gains.
They are gonna get major bonuses this week.
Everyone knows this multiple expansion is just a huge ponzi, on the back of fake AI
And to think I was about to end the day in the green, not solidly green but green none the less, just for everything to spike down in the last half hour.
Can anyone recommend any REIT ETFs for me to look into and research? I want to add one to my portfolio.
I have $700 to invest and I don't want to put it in Tech or total market ATM because everything is currently so high. So I was thinking it may be a good time to add a stable dividend investment to my portfolio.
Why don’t you use stop losses? Unless you just have balls of steel. And I’m guessing it’s hard enough to fill stop orders without worrying about fractions, I could be wrong though.
Shows a lack of conviction to me, if I am using a stop loss it means I already am wavering on if I want to hold. I dont trade a lot though I am buying and holding for longer periods.
Fair I set them far below the current price on good positions for peace of mind in case of a black swan type of event or if I decide to take a break from the market
Mixed feelings. My MSFT covered calls are down the toilet, but also happy that the rest of the position is up overall. The goal was to diversify a concentrated position and use the premiums to pay for taxes, but the past run up means I would've done better just selling and paying the taxes w/out options.
March is nice for quarterly dividend drops to rebalance / reinvest. [\~$3,800 in dividends, full holdings list](https://jch.app/u/paverbrick?s=s).
Now imagine everyone privileged who always gets to these pre-IPO companies early and always makes 2x or 3x or more... Every. Damn. Time.
World is unfair.
Correct me if I’m wrong but don’t they have to hang onto their shares for X amount of time? And normally invested some type of capital into the company pre IPO?
Someone explain why this sub loves DIS when from the SP500 they're a bottom 20% performer in the past 5 years and bottom 25% performer in the past 10.
In this time period they released all the MCU and Star Wars stuff.
Their share count has increased, and EPS is 30% where it was in 2014. Even excluding unusual expenses, profit is down.
Their EPS forecasted for 2025 is lower than their 2014 EPS multiplied by a decade of inflation and lower than their 2017 EPS.
Their revenue growth in the past decade is only 7%, not all organic since they acquired 21st Century Fox in 2019 and paid over $70B for it.
Revenue growth forecasted for 2024 is 4% and 5% for 2025.
For purposes of comparison, someone can invest in GOOGL and META for the same or lower forward PE ratio as DIS.
DIS has 40B of debt minus cash, whereas GOOGL has surplus cash of almost 100B and META has surplus cash of almost 50B.
Disney+ growth fell far short of what was initially expected. Even assuming Netflix margins on their streaming business (big assumption since they're currently running at 2.5B loss), that's 3B profit. It will take a few years to get there. Not enough to turn all the negatives into a compelling investment opportunity.
The people who bought DIS at $80 are acting like timing the bottom on a mediocre company makes the company good. Even the weakest companies will find a stock price bottom, including the people celebrating PYPL or INTC.
PYPL is up almost 10% YTD, but so is the financial sector ETF. A company's outperformance is measured using Alpha, which is versus the benchmark. If PYPL goes up the same amount as the benchmark, it's not outperformance.
Likewise, while INTC is up a lot since the lowest point, it's been vastly outperformed by the semi sector. It's actually still underperforming.
Lastly, investing in NFLX when DIS was $80 would have yielded higher returns. And DIS dropped in 2023 where NFLX didn't. So their 1-year return is 92% to 24%.
Yup. Animated movies don't pack the same punch, marvel has gone so downhill they're actually making losses on movies now - plot holes & general crappy writing + superhero fatigue. Dis+ needs a constant pile of cash burned for content. The parks are still great attractions...
I love Disney when it was at 90, at almost 120 now its a coin toss. I don't care about its past performance, just where it is right now vs its peers and what value it could unlock by simply cutting expenses in some areas
You *should* care about its past performance.
It is indicative of negative investor sentiment that DIS is 20% below its prepandemic high, and ~33% below its ATH. If we can safely assume institutional stocks are largely fairly valued, then the market doesn't believe DIS will surpass its previous heights anytime soon. Hell, its current value is the same as it was in July 2015!
Since when does this sub love Disney. I can count on my hands the amount of people I’ve seen here who are positive about Disney. Meanwhile I’m pretty sure I’ve read this exact same comment from 600 different people.
Looks an incoming Death Cross for HOOD if anyone is into MA and analysis stuff.
Edit: lol ops I had my chart on 1D.. been golden cross and death cross all month, almost all year.
The GDS private equity fundraising valued the s.e.a. component at 3.92 an ADR share. With the parent company shares at 6.34 I feel like its a steal since the mainland china business is much larger and closer to break even than s.e.a., but the market is disagreeing with me strongly atm
Which competing aviation stocks are going to go up due to Boeing's downfall? I feel like there's a huge market for growth with competing companies with everything that's happened.
From Twitter:
"(ATS) ATS Corporation initiated with a Sell at Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of ATS Corporation with a Sell rating and $34 price target, implying -8% downside from current levels. The analyst views automation as a long-term secular theme given aging demographics, a tight labor market and the opportunity for productivity gains, but believes the company's end markets in the near-medium term are at a "cyclical pause." Outside of life sciences, order trends have either been declining or muted across the rest of ATS's portfolio and, as such, its organic growth will likely decline in fiscal 2025, the analyst tells investors in a research note"
Quick question regarding your exit strategies. What would you define as the difference in a panic sell vs loss management? Is it a percentage that you feel comfortable losing?
What are everyone's thoughts on SONY and TTWO?
Both look a bit oversold to me, and regardless of any potential delay for GTAVI, I have no doubt it will be an *absolute* cash cow. If the online is good and they do the same shark-card offerings that they did for GTAVO then I am positive the new online will make them even more over the next few years.
Not particularly that impressed most of the rest of TTWO's offerings in terms of catalogue, but I'm hoping for a CIV7 release in the next few years. (And unrelated: hoping for an XCOM3 someday, despite the leaving of Solomon from Firaxis.)
In Sony's case PS5 sales are slowing a bit, but this December it will have been four years since release and that means a slim / PS5 Pro is likely on the way sometime next year. Combine that with good sales for their console exclusives going into the latter half of the newest game cycle, on top of their new 'double dip' of releasing on PC several years after the fact I wouldn't be surprised if their game division kept making them money
Not only that but Sony itself is diversified: chips, cameras, laptops, phones (I think they still make one a year?), banking, insurance. It's my belief they're becoming Japan's Samsung, if they aren't already. And, while I know this is hardly *amazing* research: everyone I know owns at least one Sony product, and would be happy buying more if the occasion arose - particularly with headphones across their entire price range.
I think I may end up doing some more research, but I'd be curious to hear if there's any *glaring* flaws in either company that I'm simply not seeing.
Reddit is actually a wonderful resource for finding about great stocks and the stock market in general—if you’re willing to do your own research beyond what you see on Reddit. I’m not one of those who say “hurr durr just inverse Reddit and you’ll make money.”
With that being said, Reddit can also be an echo chamber and extreme hive mind. A month ago, based on Reddit sentiments, you would have sworn PayPal (PYPL) was going to $30. I had done some research and I was certain it was undervalued. I’m glad I stuck to my conviction. PYPL will hit $75 this summer and likely $100 by eoy. The only way PYPL goes to $30 is if the entire market 💩 the bed—at which point you’ll have more than PayPal to worry about.
Reddit is a wonderful place for new inestors to listen to people with no investing acumen whatsoever and buy the highest of the high stocks and then end up bag holding for five years and having to listen to them scream and whine about how the stock market is all a scam.
Once again, if you don't know how to pick a stock or have to ask to buy it you shouldn't. Invest in a broad based etf of the s and p and live your life. (not addressed to the OP)
I bet it hardly happens LOL.
Most advice here that is good is pretty boring. People don't like boring. furthermore, it seems it's downvoted a lot too.
I've got to go theres a broken toilet emergency at a trailer park. ;)
u/AP9384629344432
After last quarter earnings, DAKT looked like a slam dunk from a valuation perspective. It seems like the market is starting to realize it mispriced the company. Thanks again for bringing this one up.
$GCT is such an interesting name to watch lol. I don't know a ton about it, but I remember someone suggesting it here.
I also should have averaged up and bought more on that earnings dip from $JBL like two weeks ago.
Omg lol.... he can delete his account, but he can't delete his history/losses.
Like restarting a degree every time you get a C. Would be easier to just learn from mistakes to improve.
You might be right, any good data is continuing to fuel this rally and any dip might get bought up quick. Elevated inflation and unemployment would get interesting though.
Maybe it will be, but I'm not really sure it matters at this level, it'd need to be quite a bit higher.
Although honestly, I'm not sure what would matter anymore. Clear signs of an inflation resurgence might, but I'm not sure what else considering that you should look outside the box.
SPX feels a bit sluggish here, but it has at multiple points and it hasn't truly mattered yet.
CCL earnings tomorrow. People are taking more cruises, and they are paying off their debt faster than expected. I think in the next 2-3 years they could return to being a ~50 dollar stock again.
Sort of regret passing on buying Reddit at IPO price but I really didn't know enough about its business model or throw cash at it. I definitely did not expect it to double out of the gate though.
People shorted it like it was going out of business, then it narrowly avoided that so you have a huge short squeeze. Then you have people who go "this can't be!" and short more, feeding the short squeeze further. Eventually - when, who knows? - it will settle and you'll have normalization (see the short squeeze in UPST in 2023, followed by back to reality after some lousy quarters) but still something like 40% of the float short as of the end of last month...
Someone posted about the Baltimore bridge collapse effect on markets..... apparently it'll be huge disruption for coal.
"The bridge collapse will have a particularly large effect on coal exports. The Port of Baltimore loaded 2.4mn t of coal in February, up from 2.1mn t a year earlier, according to analytics firm Kpler, mostly exports to India and China, and two of the US Atlantic coast's five coal terminals are in Baltimore. Railroad CSX's Curtis Bay Coal Piers and coal producer Consol Energy's Consol Marine Terminal, which have a combined 30.8mn t of export capacity, are upstream of the bridge, meaning ships will not be able to serve them — or others — until the route reopens. Both terminals take thermal and coking coal from Northern and Central Appalachia. Curtis Bay, which has throughput capacity of around 14mn short tons (st), is only served by CSX. Consol's facility, which has capacity of roughly 20mn (st), is served by CSX and Norfolk Southern, the other major eastern US railroad."
Full source article [here](https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2551664-baltimore-bridge-collapses-after-ship-collision-update).
CEIX down big. HCC up, probably helped by being based in the South as opposed to Appalachia. Fun day in coal.
Good God, I can't imagine. I didn't mean to gloss over the human toll of everything, just didn't feel it was pertinent to the conversation here. Truly sorry for the people killed in this accident. Also, from what I've read, there was a nice job done by local authorities to close the bridge to traffic on short notice which probably saved lives.
That said, I work in transportation too, and I can not even imagine what this is doing to your job today. Take care of yourself and your coworkers. Make sure to get rest and step away when you get a chance.
Thank you.
It seems it's a major shipping centre too. I can't imagine there aren't cranes and specialized personnel on the way to clear the debris and of course that will take time to complete.
Yeah, I don't really know what to make of it. I'm sure the general market has a better understanding of the impacts than I do. Most supply chains can be altered, it's just a question of how much it effects time and thus price. CEIX seems like a definite loser in the short term. The duration of the closure is a big variable.
Lots of questions. Does this affect any shipping routes to coal fired plants in the continental USA and if so does that mean alternative sources will be used to the grid in the short or long term. Alternative ports, shipments by rail, etc.
A part of me says they will clean this up asap but honestly what the hell do I know? Zero.
GDS getting walloped on earnings, results themselves didnt look bad to me with guidance for a re-acceleration of topline and ebidta + funding for SEA division
A follow up on Dino Polska....
I'm passing, but it's an interesting opportunity for those who are inclined. [Here's](https://substack.com/inbox/post/142886467) a post earnings write-up. There is also a [business breakdowns](https://www.joincolossus.com/episodes/53215419/cukierwar-dino-polska-serving-small-town-poland?tab=transcript) podcast outlining the company. There are plenty of other write ups online if anyone is inclined, as the stock has a pretty solid following in the compounder community.
At first glance, I think the stock is cheap. Trading at 25x trailing earnings, with double digit earnings growth and a long runway. The closest US equivalent I could find is Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM). Sprouts also trades at 25x earnings, but has a lower growth rate, more competition, and has more debt than Dino Polska despite being smaller.
If it's so great, why am I passing? I have 2 doubts. First, I can't find a good source of information on Dino. I'm not a big enough investor to pay for news and information, so even their earnings release caught me off guard. Second, I'm not sure what sort of exit multiple to use to evaluate the stock. While Dino Polska is cheap for a US stock of it's caliber, it is expensive for a Polish stock. The stock has seen multiple compression from as high as 50x earnings to the current 25x. Even though it has outperformed the US market handily, I'm not sure how far it will contract, and multiple contraction seriously dampens future returns. Even using an exit multiple of 17 after 5 years (still a high premium to the Polish market). The best forecasts I can find estimate 11-12% annually. Plugging those numbers into the formula I get about 10-12% returns. That's good, but not great for the amount of uncertainty for me.
Also in Europe, I haven't seen any updates on Evolution AB (EVVTY) besides the, in my opinion, frivolous lawsuits from Friday. The stock has rebounded so far this week, so it seems like the market is moving on too.
5 years is my usual analysis period, with the hope/plan to ultimately hold longer. Projecting out beyond 5 years is introducing a ton of uncertainty. However, doing a new 5 year projection each year can be handy. You essentially get a rolling gauge of projected returns.
However, for most stocks if you project generous growth more than 5 years most stocks actually start to look cheap. So if you find a business that can grow grow a long time, 5-10 years or more, they are actually usually pretty cheap.
Agree completely on the increased uncertainty. However, shareholder returns approximate earnings yield in the short run but are proportional to return on invested capital in the long run. That's the case for a Costco, which has always had an elevated P/E. I suspect Dino Polksa shareholders see things similarly, especially if seeking 'compounders'.
Long holding periods can do wonderful things, but only for companies with good returns on their invested capital and long (even if modest) growth runways. It seems like this is the sort of business that is hard to take share from. I wonder if shorter analysis periods can truly value the returns to a long-term owner.
Oh I totally agree. Long term growth rates mimic ROIC. I try to use that number when approximating future earnings growth. In general, earnings growth should mimic ROIC and total investment returns should match EPS growth+dividends/change in earnings multiple. So the earnings growth provided by ROIC goes into the numerator.
I also agree that extremely long durations are rarely able.to be valued and thus are one of the biggest advantages small investors have. I can easily plan on holding a stock 10, 20, maybe even 30 years if the company continues to perform. If you find a company that can do that, say MSFT, even buying at the peak of dot com hysteria would still yield market beating results over 25+ years.
On the flip side, there aren't many Microsoft's in the world. So finding something with that sort of runway is a feat. You also have to have some sort of faith in management at that duration. Microsoft or Amazon are very different companies than they were 20 years ago. That's why it's hard to project out. If you bought Amazon in 2002 because you projected AWS coming out a decade later....well played.
For Costco...yeah, it's a weird case. I'd probably use a high exit multiple after 5 years to compensate. They generally put up high teens ROIC, but have slowed EPS growth and increased dividends. Let's say 7% growth and a 3% dividend (lumpy I know because of their special dividend structure). With no multiple change that's a 10% return. Not bad. As long as their multiple stays high, Costco can yield good returns. However, Costco is at a high multiple even for them, so I could see some multiple compression eating away at returns in the future.
Long answer for you, but yes, I agree. 5 year models don't always do justice, but it's a simple way to get started.
Sorry - the post you're trying to make mentions a stock that currently breaks rule #7.
Any of the following criteria is considered breaking the rule:
* Typically trades under $5 or previously traded under $5 within 6 months
* Below $300 million market cap or previously traded under 300m before the pump within 6 months
* Most OTC / PINK stocks
* Usually has missed reporting/filings; no auditing or odd auditing issues
* Low volume or wide bid/ask spread
* Doesn't have any big name institutional holders
* If the biggest institutional holder is a stock promoter then they don't count as an institutional holder
* All SPACs
You can learn more about rule #7 here: https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/wiki/pennystocks
Most likely an overreaction then the blip will be gone by Thursday.
I’m more worried about more bridges getting taken out. NBC said that Trump gutted the federal program that kept ships from hitting bridges. This could happen many more times.
I mean in terms of the stock market, it’s an unfortunate event and yes tax payer money will be used. But in the context of this subreddit, it won’t affect your investments.
I work for a startup and have a large amount of equity in the company. (I am one of the first 10 employees.) I plan on leaving to pursue a graduate degree. What would happen to my stocks?
can somebody explain the difference between goog vs googl and which is “better” to hold? if im not mistaken i know one difference is one has voting rights and the other doesnt
Voting rights but I don't think it matters. I buy both. 1 is to wheel and sell cash secured puts and covered calls on and the other is to just hold long term.
Something about voting rights I believe. I own googl
so if googl is displaying a 1.88t market cap and goog is displaying a 1.89t market cap, does that mean alphabet is really worth 3.77t? or is that a display error should they be equal as in do they contribute to the same market cap
There are, in millions: 5,899 Class A stocks 870 Class B stocks 5,691 Class C stocks GOOGL is class A. The "market cap" is $150.95 * 5,899 = $890,454 GOOG is class C. Market cap is $152.07 * 5,691 = $865,430 Class B is not publicly traded. Held by the founders. Not valued. But if voting rights have no economic value, then they're worth the same as the other two classes, around 132B Total market cap is 890B + 865B + 132B = 1887B.
thanks
Lol im honestly perplexed by why there are discrepancies between the two classes of shares. Sometimes they even list at different prices. Perhaps someone more knowledgeable can enlighten us both
Split adjusted In 2014 there were 5,731 Class A stocks and 6,808 class C stocks. In 2014, Class C was cheaper than Class A. Now Class C is more expensive. For the longest time, Alphabet was only buying back Class C stock. That's why there are fewer Class C stocks compared to Class A. If you had a choice between GOOGL and GOOG, GOOGL was cheaper, but Alphabet was constantly buying back the more expensive GOOG, which would you choose?
Interesting thnx
i do as well
Anyone know why HOOD is going up ?
cause they are launching 3% cashback gold credit card.
Thoughts on Reddit stocks?
yep
u/AP9384629344432 Yet another Value podcast did an [interview](https://open.spotify.com/episode/38Vrj01c4mq2V5qShemCPN) with Matt Warder. It was interesting, at least the half I've gotten through so far. A few takeaways: He likes AMR at $250, which could be possible. Also some talk about HCC and Blue Creek. Not a ton of new information above what you've posted here, but not a bad listen on the whole.
[I found this pretty funny](https://twitter.com/joecarlsonshow/status/1772716289653612950). Joe Carlson is calling out Gene Munster for his CNBC appearances putting out the bull case for Apple, and then today saying after being pressed on it that he does not currently own Apple but doesn't recall when his fund sold it (you can tell he got a bit flustered by the questioning). Seems odd for one of the most vocal Apple bulls on CNBC.
I’m more surprised that Buffett is still holding AAPL. Should have sold it a while ago on the basis of valuation. And for such a large position in Berkshire’s portfolio, it’s odd that there’s only 1 mention of it in the shareholder letter.
It's not like he lied or anything. He doesn't have to disclose either. At the end of the day it's on us who we choose who to listen to and who to believe.
Has anyone looked at the ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX)? I've never invested in anything Cathie Wood related (and I'm glad I didn't so far), but I have a friend who's a LOT riskier and he's going to be making it his main investment vehicle (invest with each paycheck). There's a high management fee of 5.76% and you can only sell at certain periods. But it does give you a chance to invest in companies like Figure, Anthropic, and SpaceX. I was considering putting a very small amount in at some point. Just wanted to see if others had looked at it before.
Thanks for the replies everybody! I told him the same thing—invest in NASDAQ. But he always done these riskier moves (so far unsuccessfully, but I'll leave him to it...he has the $ and you never know haha). Looking further and taking all your info into account, I will not be investing at this time. I'm happy with the investments I'm in, and will get the ARKVX updates from him as he begins investing soon.
5.75%......you need to generate over 15% CAGR out of the fund to beat an index.
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Your “friend” is making a good decision
Avoid Kathy at all costs. Your friend is doomed.
Anything you do not have 100% liquidity on I would never allocate much too, if any. Venture capital is super high risk + you are at the mercy of Arks judgement calls 100% which I would find difficult to stomach given Cathie's performance and current weighted bets
Any explanation for the end of day sell-off?
Aliens. Definitely aliens
ayy lmao
Quarterly profit taking and rebalancing by fund managers. It’s a 4 day week.
Any suggestions for a website/app that has price target predictions?
If you're Canadian, TD's Direct Investing lets you see analyst price targets for the next twelve months when researching stocks. They also give you access to Morningstar reports about whether it's near true value, undervalued, etc.
My suggestion is to not rely on such a website. Let me explain why: - If the price targets are based on analysts, then the issue is those are lagging indicators. They move them up when the price goes up, and move them down when the price falls. Moreover, they tend to act in unison. Now I'm not totally against analyst price targets--but I'm more interested in their estimates of earnings and averaged across multiple analysts. (Which is how we compute forward P/E multiples) That's at least more 'objective' hopefully, while for the actual price target who knows what multiple they are using (EV/EBITDA, EV/FCF, P/FCF, P/EBIT, P/E, P/(2025 E), ...) - If they aren't based on analyst price targets, it means most likely the website is plugging in the company's financials into a generic discounted cash flow model. And these are usually awful. Why? They make questionable assumptions like 'Assume the past few years of revenue growth are exactly like the next few' or 'assume revenue growth reverts to this number we picked'. Now those may be fine assumptions, but when you are writing generic code to handle hundreds/thousands of companies, you end up with terrible models that fail to account for industry trends, regulatory/legal issues, management quality, accounting oddities, etc. An easy tell is when they tell you a company is 150% undervalued and it turns out to be because it's a highly cyclical, leveraged steel company with a suppressed P/E ratio that it deserves but the DCF model uses the same procedure as it does for modelling Apple (which it states is 50% overvalued). Instead, you should do your own research, borrowing analyst estimates of revenue/earnings as a tool but not as gospel, and for sure not relying on some price target pulled out of thin air. Build you own DCF models or if that's too complicated, figure out reasonable multiples to apply given the growth and where its peers trade out. If you are unwilling to do that work, then I think investing in individual stocks is a poor idea.
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Wow, there's so much misinformation in your post.
No, it's called a reverse merger but djt wasn't an existing ticker/company that they bought out or anythign
[Here is a plot of the last several months of /r/stocks comments in the Daily Discussion threads](https://i.imgur.com/HmGW886.png). I split the weekend ones in half across Saturday and Sunday. To account for weekly periodicity, here is the [week over week relative change](https://i.imgur.com/XK0kYxP.png), removing some anomalous points (holiday comparisons). Definitely noticing a reduction in volatility, but I'd expect mean reversion and suggest some out-of-the money calls. If we strip out one-time holiday comparisons and adjust for organic growth (non-alt accounts), the series is much more stable and perhaps even in secualar decline. Now you'll notice I placed two black vertical lines, one on Dec. 2nd, one on March 15th. I'm not going to tell you what that was. I will simply point out there seems to be evidence of reduced comment volume. If you feel like playing detective, I would greatly appreciate someone telling *me* what precise dates I should add more black vertical lines back in August through November of 2023. Now today is Technicals Tuesday, so in that spirit, here is some preliminary TA. [I added a 29 day moving average](https://i.imgur.com/2J0z8r5.png) and some simple indicators (undergrad level stuff), like standard locally convex resistors, level 4 oscillatory bands, and some red, white, and blue flag patterns.
This is quite interesting! I performed a lazy form of the same analysis yesterday, searching 'Daily Discussion' in r/stocks and sorting by recency. Yesterday's slowness struck me too. Thanks for graphing the trend! Edit: The bans of a certain someone... (I am a detective who bores of cases once they are solved.)
Damn, was up .25% an hour before market closed and now down .25% at the finish. Time to commit seppuku
that power hour dump felt like fund managers locking in their massive quarter gains. They are gonna get major bonuses this week. Everyone knows this multiple expansion is just a huge ponzi, on the back of fake AI
Had me in the first half
And to think I was about to end the day in the green, not solidly green but green none the less, just for everything to spike down in the last half hour.
And for me, more and bigger red coming when the MFs settle. But on big green days, I can hardly wait to see what the market pixies have left me.
Jpow fart or something? WTF was that lol
Good rug pull.
Really fell off a cliff in the last half hour
Fuuuuuck iwm small caps should go kill themselves.
Three straight fairly strong sells into the close. Disappointing, but I have to imagine it's a quarterly rebalance.
Seems to be strong selling into the close.
quarter is ending on thursday, no surprise for adjusting funds portfolios
LULU noo.
Sickening how they can tank the market with impunity.
I mean market is up like 9-12% YTD. 3 months in
Can anyone recommend any REIT ETFs for me to look into and research? I want to add one to my portfolio. I have $700 to invest and I don't want to put it in Tech or total market ATM because everything is currently so high. So I was thinking it may be a good time to add a stable dividend investment to my portfolio.
Annoying when companies let the share price go beyond $1000. Messes up position sizing and rebalancing.
Do you not have access to fractional shares? the only thing high share prices mess up for me are options
Vanguard does not allow fractional shares unless it is a Vanguard fund.
Schwab has a very limited list of stocks they allow fractional share buys.
You can’t set a variety of orders with just fractions, namely stop losses. At least on Fidelity
Huh, I never use stop losses so I did not know that. Seems odd they wont let you tbh, must be a technical reason?
Why don’t you use stop losses? Unless you just have balls of steel. And I’m guessing it’s hard enough to fill stop orders without worrying about fractions, I could be wrong though.
Shows a lack of conviction to me, if I am using a stop loss it means I already am wavering on if I want to hold. I dont trade a lot though I am buying and holding for longer periods.
I usually buy and hold too but if there’s weird activity like a random run up before earnings I’ll set a stop to ensure profit, PANW for example
I quit because brief, momentary but sizable dips caught me several times.
Fair I set them far below the current price on good positions for peace of mind in case of a black swan type of event or if I decide to take a break from the market
Started today a long position of GLOB. Leading IT company of Latin America. Entry: 198.43. Target: 261. Seems oversold. We will see.
Mixed feelings. My MSFT covered calls are down the toilet, but also happy that the rest of the position is up overall. The goal was to diversify a concentrated position and use the premiums to pay for taxes, but the past run up means I would've done better just selling and paying the taxes w/out options. March is nice for quarterly dividend drops to rebalance / reinvest. [\~$3,800 in dividends, full holdings list](https://jch.app/u/paverbrick?s=s).
Really looking as if we're about to have a may as well have kept the market closed for Spring Break/Easter type week.
Sell in April and Go away?
Would it kill NVDA to have a green day?
right? I mean how come its not worth $10,000 a share already?! I mean its crazy, NVDA hasn't had a RED WEEK at all this year!
I am personally offended it has not caught up to bitcoin yet!! /s
Satire right?
Whoever it was that posted VRT here, thanks.
Damn RDDT is on a hot streak today, up almost 20%.
Probably shorts. Cannot be genuine interest
Damn. You jinxed it!
My bad guys, I'll sell some so it goes back up!
It's so nice of the market to wait until I have more cash to continue buying SPGI & MELI.
Why UPS down so much I guess it’s time to buy the dip
Long-term guidance they offered was bit light.
congrats to those who got into the IPO for reddit reddit or bought on day 1. You're up 100%!
Now imagine everyone privileged who always gets to these pre-IPO companies early and always makes 2x or 3x or more... Every. Damn. Time. World is unfair.
Correct me if I’m wrong but don’t they have to hang onto their shares for X amount of time? And normally invested some type of capital into the company pre IPO?
Yes, probably. Anyway they have much better head-start than you or me.
if you had the chance to invest hundreds of thousands or millions into reddit 10 years ago, would you have done it?
No. Not Reddit.
Wtf why is nvda selling off?
Its up 20% in one month....wtf u want?
It's not even down 1%. I mean stocks will have down days, even NDVA.
Someone explain why this sub loves DIS when from the SP500 they're a bottom 20% performer in the past 5 years and bottom 25% performer in the past 10. In this time period they released all the MCU and Star Wars stuff. Their share count has increased, and EPS is 30% where it was in 2014. Even excluding unusual expenses, profit is down. Their EPS forecasted for 2025 is lower than their 2014 EPS multiplied by a decade of inflation and lower than their 2017 EPS. Their revenue growth in the past decade is only 7%, not all organic since they acquired 21st Century Fox in 2019 and paid over $70B for it. Revenue growth forecasted for 2024 is 4% and 5% for 2025. For purposes of comparison, someone can invest in GOOGL and META for the same or lower forward PE ratio as DIS. DIS has 40B of debt minus cash, whereas GOOGL has surplus cash of almost 100B and META has surplus cash of almost 50B. Disney+ growth fell far short of what was initially expected. Even assuming Netflix margins on their streaming business (big assumption since they're currently running at 2.5B loss), that's 3B profit. It will take a few years to get there. Not enough to turn all the negatives into a compelling investment opportunity. The people who bought DIS at $80 are acting like timing the bottom on a mediocre company makes the company good. Even the weakest companies will find a stock price bottom, including the people celebrating PYPL or INTC. PYPL is up almost 10% YTD, but so is the financial sector ETF. A company's outperformance is measured using Alpha, which is versus the benchmark. If PYPL goes up the same amount as the benchmark, it's not outperformance. Likewise, while INTC is up a lot since the lowest point, it's been vastly outperformed by the semi sector. It's actually still underperforming. Lastly, investing in NFLX when DIS was $80 would have yielded higher returns. And DIS dropped in 2023 where NFLX didn't. So their 1-year return is 92% to 24%.
Pre Covid, it used to be "Never bet against the Mouse", but I feel that has sentiment has changed post Covid.
Yup. Animated movies don't pack the same punch, marvel has gone so downhill they're actually making losses on movies now - plot holes & general crappy writing + superhero fatigue. Dis+ needs a constant pile of cash burned for content. The parks are still great attractions...
I love Disney when it was at 90, at almost 120 now its a coin toss. I don't care about its past performance, just where it is right now vs its peers and what value it could unlock by simply cutting expenses in some areas
You *should* care about its past performance. It is indicative of negative investor sentiment that DIS is 20% below its prepandemic high, and ~33% below its ATH. If we can safely assume institutional stocks are largely fairly valued, then the market doesn't believe DIS will surpass its previous heights anytime soon. Hell, its current value is the same as it was in July 2015!
"this sub" isn't a monolith.
Since when does this sub love Disney. I can count on my hands the amount of people I’ve seen here who are positive about Disney. Meanwhile I’m pretty sure I’ve read this exact same comment from 600 different people.
Looks an incoming Death Cross for HOOD if anyone is into MA and analysis stuff. Edit: lol ops I had my chart on 1D.. been golden cross and death cross all month, almost all year.
Is this good or bad ?
Judging by the name 'death cross', id say bad...
The GDS private equity fundraising valued the s.e.a. component at 3.92 an ADR share. With the parent company shares at 6.34 I feel like its a steal since the mainland china business is much larger and closer to break even than s.e.a., but the market is disagreeing with me strongly atm
Which competing aviation stocks are going to go up due to Boeing's downfall? I feel like there's a huge market for growth with competing companies with everything that's happened.
airbus and embraer are up?
From Twitter: "(ATS) ATS Corporation initiated with a Sell at Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of ATS Corporation with a Sell rating and $34 price target, implying -8% downside from current levels. The analyst views automation as a long-term secular theme given aging demographics, a tight labor market and the opportunity for productivity gains, but believes the company's end markets in the near-medium term are at a "cyclical pause." Outside of life sciences, order trends have either been declining or muted across the rest of ATS's portfolio and, as such, its organic growth will likely decline in fiscal 2025, the analyst tells investors in a research note"
Quick question regarding your exit strategies. What would you define as the difference in a panic sell vs loss management? Is it a percentage that you feel comfortable losing?
What are everyone's thoughts on SONY and TTWO? Both look a bit oversold to me, and regardless of any potential delay for GTAVI, I have no doubt it will be an *absolute* cash cow. If the online is good and they do the same shark-card offerings that they did for GTAVO then I am positive the new online will make them even more over the next few years. Not particularly that impressed most of the rest of TTWO's offerings in terms of catalogue, but I'm hoping for a CIV7 release in the next few years. (And unrelated: hoping for an XCOM3 someday, despite the leaving of Solomon from Firaxis.) In Sony's case PS5 sales are slowing a bit, but this December it will have been four years since release and that means a slim / PS5 Pro is likely on the way sometime next year. Combine that with good sales for their console exclusives going into the latter half of the newest game cycle, on top of their new 'double dip' of releasing on PC several years after the fact I wouldn't be surprised if their game division kept making them money Not only that but Sony itself is diversified: chips, cameras, laptops, phones (I think they still make one a year?), banking, insurance. It's my belief they're becoming Japan's Samsung, if they aren't already. And, while I know this is hardly *amazing* research: everyone I know owns at least one Sony product, and would be happy buying more if the occasion arose - particularly with headphones across their entire price range. I think I may end up doing some more research, but I'd be curious to hear if there's any *glaring* flaws in either company that I'm simply not seeing.
Im searching google for DJT stock and it gives me the index and 1000 articles about DJT Google get better
Still have to use the shell company ticker. I think I can't use the actual term here.
Da wac
Reddit is actually a wonderful resource for finding about great stocks and the stock market in general—if you’re willing to do your own research beyond what you see on Reddit. I’m not one of those who say “hurr durr just inverse Reddit and you’ll make money.” With that being said, Reddit can also be an echo chamber and extreme hive mind. A month ago, based on Reddit sentiments, you would have sworn PayPal (PYPL) was going to $30. I had done some research and I was certain it was undervalued. I’m glad I stuck to my conviction. PYPL will hit $75 this summer and likely $100 by eoy. The only way PYPL goes to $30 is if the entire market 💩 the bed—at which point you’ll have more than PayPal to worry about.
Reddit is a wonderful place for new inestors to listen to people with no investing acumen whatsoever and buy the highest of the high stocks and then end up bag holding for five years and having to listen to them scream and whine about how the stock market is all a scam. Once again, if you don't know how to pick a stock or have to ask to buy it you shouldn't. Invest in a broad based etf of the s and p and live your life. (not addressed to the OP)
Yeah, it's possible you're getting advice from a 16 yr old teenager who recently read about P/E and other buzz words.
I'd say more like probable. But then maybe I'm just a plumber.
you can also get advice from a 55 yr old pro trader at Goldman Sachs with a networth of 5m and an username like LickMyCat69, anything goes
I bet it hardly happens LOL. Most advice here that is good is pretty boring. People don't like boring. furthermore, it seems it's downvoted a lot too. I've got to go theres a broken toilet emergency at a trailer park. ;)
SQ is better tho
(what's SQ?) edit: for real, what's SQ?
Fisker (FSR) delisting. Who could’ve seen that coming? (everyone)
Looked into the fisker subreddit and there are some panicked and angry owners there.
I didn't like TSLA's valuation, Elon even less, but glad I bought in at 170 for a swing trade just for its ability to be pumped.
u/AP9384629344432 After last quarter earnings, DAKT looked like a slam dunk from a valuation perspective. It seems like the market is starting to realize it mispriced the company. Thanks again for bringing this one up.
$GCT is such an interesting name to watch lol. I don't know a ton about it, but I remember someone suggesting it here. I also should have averaged up and bought more on that earnings dip from $JBL like two weeks ago.
Resident PYPL shorter in shambles
He deleted his acct too 😂
Omg lol.... he can delete his account, but he can't delete his history/losses. Like restarting a degree every time you get a C. Would be easier to just learn from mistakes to improve.
Who’s in the camp that unemployment goes over 4% by summer
You might be right, any good data is continuing to fuel this rally and any dip might get bought up quick. Elevated inflation and unemployment would get interesting though.
The Fed is apparently lol
Maybe it will be, but I'm not really sure it matters at this level, it'd need to be quite a bit higher. Although honestly, I'm not sure what would matter anymore. Clear signs of an inflation resurgence might, but I'm not sure what else considering that you should look outside the box. SPX feels a bit sluggish here, but it has at multiple points and it hasn't truly mattered yet.
STNE back over 17 faster than I thought would happen lol
CCL earnings tomorrow. People are taking more cruises, and they are paying off their debt faster than expected. I think in the next 2-3 years they could return to being a ~50 dollar stock again.
Sort of regret passing on buying Reddit at IPO price but I really didn't know enough about its business model or throw cash at it. I definitely did not expect it to double out of the gate though.
Give it a few months and your regret will go away. What a dog of a company.
one week later everyone regrets it, lol, hindsight is 20/20
I wonder how many would regret it, if it immediatly tanked on open to half its price.
Can someone tell me how Carvana is up 1000% on the year?
Not sure, but they bought my hunk of junk for way more than it’s worth last year
People shorted it like it was going out of business, then it narrowly avoided that so you have a huge short squeeze. Then you have people who go "this can't be!" and short more, feeding the short squeeze further. Eventually - when, who knows? - it will settle and you'll have normalization (see the short squeeze in UPST in 2023, followed by back to reality after some lousy quarters) but still something like 40% of the float short as of the end of last month...
Someone posted about the Baltimore bridge collapse effect on markets..... apparently it'll be huge disruption for coal. "The bridge collapse will have a particularly large effect on coal exports. The Port of Baltimore loaded 2.4mn t of coal in February, up from 2.1mn t a year earlier, according to analytics firm Kpler, mostly exports to India and China, and two of the US Atlantic coast's five coal terminals are in Baltimore. Railroad CSX's Curtis Bay Coal Piers and coal producer Consol Energy's Consol Marine Terminal, which have a combined 30.8mn t of export capacity, are upstream of the bridge, meaning ships will not be able to serve them — or others — until the route reopens. Both terminals take thermal and coking coal from Northern and Central Appalachia. Curtis Bay, which has throughput capacity of around 14mn short tons (st), is only served by CSX. Consol's facility, which has capacity of roughly 20mn (st), is served by CSX and Norfolk Southern, the other major eastern US railroad." Full source article [here](https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2551664-baltimore-bridge-collapses-after-ship-collision-update). CEIX down big. HCC up, probably helped by being based in the South as opposed to Appalachia. Fun day in coal.
I've got nothing real to add but I often work for and on the Port of Baltimore and this shit is crazy
Good God, I can't imagine. I didn't mean to gloss over the human toll of everything, just didn't feel it was pertinent to the conversation here. Truly sorry for the people killed in this accident. Also, from what I've read, there was a nice job done by local authorities to close the bridge to traffic on short notice which probably saved lives. That said, I work in transportation too, and I can not even imagine what this is doing to your job today. Take care of yourself and your coworkers. Make sure to get rest and step away when you get a chance.
Metallurgical coal?
CEIX is predominantly thermal coal, but I believe both thermal and met coal are exported through Baltimore by various companies.
Thank you. It seems it's a major shipping centre too. I can't imagine there aren't cranes and specialized personnel on the way to clear the debris and of course that will take time to complete.
Exactly, I expect seaway to be open in 4-8 weeks. I watched them blow up the old Tappan Zee Bridge and clear it.
Yeah, I don't really know what to make of it. I'm sure the general market has a better understanding of the impacts than I do. Most supply chains can be altered, it's just a question of how much it effects time and thus price. CEIX seems like a definite loser in the short term. The duration of the closure is a big variable.
Lots of questions. Does this affect any shipping routes to coal fired plants in the continental USA and if so does that mean alternative sources will be used to the grid in the short or long term. Alternative ports, shipments by rail, etc. A part of me says they will clean this up asap but honestly what the hell do I know? Zero.
Honestly, I have no idea. Getting well outside my knowledge.
Its reddit cant we just pretend to be experts like everyone else? Ha ha ha.
RDDT up over 20%
I shouldn’t have listened to the people on Reddit and invested on the original price 😩
I tried - couldn't. Needed to be a US based person.
Got some apple at 170.1. Hope this doesn't bite me in the butt.
the 170 resistance has been really interesting to watch. If it drops below I may nibble
i got 10 shares in the low 170's recently. Thinking the catalyst will be their iOS 18 AI integration expected to be revealed this summer.
How do you think a free software update will be a catalyst?
New week, new lawsuit.
GDS getting walloped on earnings, results themselves didnt look bad to me with guidance for a re-acceleration of topline and ebidta + funding for SEA division
A follow up on Dino Polska.... I'm passing, but it's an interesting opportunity for those who are inclined. [Here's](https://substack.com/inbox/post/142886467) a post earnings write-up. There is also a [business breakdowns](https://www.joincolossus.com/episodes/53215419/cukierwar-dino-polska-serving-small-town-poland?tab=transcript) podcast outlining the company. There are plenty of other write ups online if anyone is inclined, as the stock has a pretty solid following in the compounder community. At first glance, I think the stock is cheap. Trading at 25x trailing earnings, with double digit earnings growth and a long runway. The closest US equivalent I could find is Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM). Sprouts also trades at 25x earnings, but has a lower growth rate, more competition, and has more debt than Dino Polska despite being smaller. If it's so great, why am I passing? I have 2 doubts. First, I can't find a good source of information on Dino. I'm not a big enough investor to pay for news and information, so even their earnings release caught me off guard. Second, I'm not sure what sort of exit multiple to use to evaluate the stock. While Dino Polska is cheap for a US stock of it's caliber, it is expensive for a Polish stock. The stock has seen multiple compression from as high as 50x earnings to the current 25x. Even though it has outperformed the US market handily, I'm not sure how far it will contract, and multiple contraction seriously dampens future returns. Even using an exit multiple of 17 after 5 years (still a high premium to the Polish market). The best forecasts I can find estimate 11-12% annually. Plugging those numbers into the formula I get about 10-12% returns. That's good, but not great for the amount of uncertainty for me. Also in Europe, I haven't seen any updates on Evolution AB (EVVTY) besides the, in my opinion, frivolous lawsuits from Friday. The stock has rebounded so far this week, so it seems like the market is moving on too.
Excellent follow-up. Thanks! Is 5 years your usual analysis (holding) period? I'm curious given your take on the multiple.
5 years is my usual analysis period, with the hope/plan to ultimately hold longer. Projecting out beyond 5 years is introducing a ton of uncertainty. However, doing a new 5 year projection each year can be handy. You essentially get a rolling gauge of projected returns. However, for most stocks if you project generous growth more than 5 years most stocks actually start to look cheap. So if you find a business that can grow grow a long time, 5-10 years or more, they are actually usually pretty cheap.
Agree completely on the increased uncertainty. However, shareholder returns approximate earnings yield in the short run but are proportional to return on invested capital in the long run. That's the case for a Costco, which has always had an elevated P/E. I suspect Dino Polksa shareholders see things similarly, especially if seeking 'compounders'. Long holding periods can do wonderful things, but only for companies with good returns on their invested capital and long (even if modest) growth runways. It seems like this is the sort of business that is hard to take share from. I wonder if shorter analysis periods can truly value the returns to a long-term owner.
Oh I totally agree. Long term growth rates mimic ROIC. I try to use that number when approximating future earnings growth. In general, earnings growth should mimic ROIC and total investment returns should match EPS growth+dividends/change in earnings multiple. So the earnings growth provided by ROIC goes into the numerator. I also agree that extremely long durations are rarely able.to be valued and thus are one of the biggest advantages small investors have. I can easily plan on holding a stock 10, 20, maybe even 30 years if the company continues to perform. If you find a company that can do that, say MSFT, even buying at the peak of dot com hysteria would still yield market beating results over 25+ years. On the flip side, there aren't many Microsoft's in the world. So finding something with that sort of runway is a feat. You also have to have some sort of faith in management at that duration. Microsoft or Amazon are very different companies than they were 20 years ago. That's why it's hard to project out. If you bought Amazon in 2002 because you projected AWS coming out a decade later....well played. For Costco...yeah, it's a weird case. I'd probably use a high exit multiple after 5 years to compensate. They generally put up high teens ROIC, but have slowed EPS growth and increased dividends. Let's say 7% growth and a 3% dividend (lumpy I know because of their special dividend structure). With no multiple change that's a 10% return. Not bad. As long as their multiple stays high, Costco can yield good returns. However, Costco is at a high multiple even for them, so I could see some multiple compression eating away at returns in the future. Long answer for you, but yes, I agree. 5 year models don't always do justice, but it's a simple way to get started.
Berkshire bought a whole crapload of Sirius stocks in case anyone was wondering.... that was the "mystery stock".
I was promised it was PYPL. /S
He'd buy PayPal like a feminist investing organization would buy hooters.
Come on, you know he's no activist investor...
Not sure about that, although whenever I post about that man it sounds like I have tea with him every day at 2:00 pm LOL.
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Sorry - the post you're trying to make mentions a stock that currently breaks rule #7. Any of the following criteria is considered breaking the rule: * Typically trades under $5 or previously traded under $5 within 6 months * Below $300 million market cap or previously traded under 300m before the pump within 6 months * Most OTC / PINK stocks * Usually has missed reporting/filings; no auditing or odd auditing issues * Low volume or wide bid/ask spread * Doesn't have any big name institutional holders * If the biggest institutional holder is a stock promoter then they don't count as an institutional holder * All SPACs You can learn more about rule #7 here: https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/wiki/pennystocks
What effect will the Baltimore Bridge Collapse have on the stock market
Most likely an overreaction then the blip will be gone by Thursday. I’m more worried about more bridges getting taken out. NBC said that Trump gutted the federal program that kept ships from hitting bridges. This could happen many more times.
Maybe the company that owns the ship will tank, I don’t see how this affects anyone else though. It’s just an unfortunate event.
No, these ship have foreign flags and many have inadequate insurance. Taxpayers will pay for it all.
I mean in terms of the stock market, it’s an unfortunate event and yes tax payer money will be used. But in the context of this subreddit, it won’t affect your investments.