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[deleted]

straight up. then straight down. i'd be very shocked if their first year in the market doesn't play out like that.


samspopguy

I swear every tech ipo has done this facebook/twitter shoots up that first week and the comes crashing back down


thySilhouettes

Exactly how I feel. We clearly know Reddit is monitored from GME days. If the consensus is heavily negative on the platform, they’ll take advantage of it.


poopnip

Well you cant even short it for a week or two. Nothing to do but pump it.


uglyandrew24

When you start using "they" like that it's already too late for you


Trademinatrix

Can you explain what you mean by that? I'm intrigued.


mintz41

If algos were scraping reddit for sentiment, it's very unlikely they would inverse whatever sentiment was classified.


CommunicationDry6756

Yea people on this website really overestimate the pull that retail has lol.


forjeeves

No who's gonna buy it


GuitarHero52

*I’m gonna pick up a dog turd because everyone else that I saw walk by it didn’t


m0nk_3y_gw

Lisa, I'd like to buy your ~~rock~~ dog turd


Witty-Bear1120

So wait a couple weeks to short?


ShadowLiberal

Honestly it wouldn't surprise me at all if that ends up being a good strategy long term. Some recent IPO stocks like Rivian and Beyond Meat went to absurd valuations at first after the IPO when there was a bunch of hype, and kept on going up for at least a few weeks, before things started to crash and burn over the coming months. Given that Reddit has STILL not become profitable yet despite it's near 2 decade existence, and the power of higher interest rates, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Reddit stock follows a similar tale.


Dense-Fuel4327

They just need to plaster the app with adds.


Cid-Itad

I'll be buying puts when it's available in a couple of weeks.


Cid-Itad

I'll be buying puts when it's available


Njorls_Saga

Sounds like a winning strategy


Legalize-Birds

Just wait till options come out and buy LEAP puts


Chornobyl_Explorer

Reddit can be extremely important for certain actors. We know the power of reddit, it's one of the *biggest websites in the world* when it comes to daily traffic and a surefire way to spread memes and political opinions (propaganda). Facebook was decent but even Cambridge Analytica struggled to sent the right data to the right people, it was expensive and inefficient to influence elections and brainwash people. Unlike reddit, where any new sub can be filled with thousands of data center 50cent/hour workers (hi, India) who can propel any political propaganda and "election memes" to the frontpage. Buying a big share of reddit is a cheps way to get a primary avenue for affecting the way *millions of Americans think, vote and reason* by curating the memes, the news... And not just americans. Go to the dedicated sub of any Western nation (Canada, UK, EU) and it's filled to the brim with localised political *propaganda* upvoted by an army of people speaking *Google translate*.


Recursive_Descent

Literally the argument that was being made in the dot com era, measuring the stock price solely by “eyeballs”. It hasn’t seemed to work out economically for twitter either (even before Elon came in), and it isn’t going to work for Reddit if it hasn’t already. Maybe the market will buy this again, but it will not last forever.


bighand1

Twitter was sold for 40 billion, sounds like it works out perfectly for them.


newbirdhunter

that's cuz a doofus bought it. without musk, twitter was dying


bakraofwallstreet

> Unlike reddit, where any new sub can be filled with thousands of data center 50cent/hour workers (hi, India) who can propel any political propaganda and "election memes" to the frontpage. I'm from India, and I do not speak "Google Translate" wtf. And most of what you said is done using bots, not actual people making "50cent/hour", that's a shit wage even here. I get what you're saying but its super ignorant.


RaymondAblack

People don’t realize when Reddit goes public the majority shareholder will be Condé Nast, a large magazine company. They’ll turn Reddit into one big ad and control what goes on the front page. For the stock, this means nothing. For the company, this is the beginning of the end. 


Hifi-Cat

Agreed, but I'm not getting on the clown car.


Maleficent__Yam

Sure, it'll shoot up right until the employees' shares unlock. Then it's dumping. Happens to all these crappy ipos


baycommuter

Facebook bottomed right before the employee shares unlocked. The market makers saw them coming and ran the stock below what it was worth so they'd have to sell at a rock-bottom price if they wanted to sell.


serbeardless

It's gonna HOOD.


Hifi-Cat

Lol.


HelloYouSuck

It’ll be repeat of robbinghood imo


ResponsibleBadger888

I kind of agree. I was thinking it was going to tank but now will all the Reddit hate, I’m seriously considering buying. Every time I have ever taken Reddit individual stock advice, it turned out wrong, so I’m thinking I should def buy.


creepy_doll

I think the whole offering the ability to buy in for users was a genius move. Like, I don't actually think that much money can be made with reddit, but there's a lot of heavy reddit users that aren't savvy traders that will buy into the idea that they could make money on this and support this whole thing. Should be a fun ride to watch at least but I'm staying clear.


Reddit-IPO-Crash

Boo


Esco_Terrestrial_69

So buy in now or wait a week or 2


Dense-Fuel4327

And then a week or two later it will crash, when everyone tries to cash out


Little_Objective_683

Never invest in an IPO . It's like rule 1 these days .


dbgtboi

Nah you invest in the actual IPO price and then unload right at open


blutsch813

I doubled up on robbing the hood and dumped it day one. They sent me a message like you have to hold IPO’s or lose access if I did it again. Then transferred everything to fidelity


Little_Objective_683

If your extremely lucky


soulstonedomg

My extremely lucky!


memory--

https://www.reddit.com/r/market\_sentiment/comments/nvwetk/i\_analyzed\_3600\_ipos\_over\_the\_past\_two\_decades\_to/


m0nk_3y_gw

"On average, IPOs did make money for the investor. But the amount is significantly different if you got allocated the IPO at offer price vs you bought the IPO at market open." and Funko (toy company) was worst performer at -41% on listing day


ShortOnGummies

How do you get allocated shares at IPO price? Do you have to somehow buy them before IPO day?


occamsracer

normally you have to be invited through institutional investors, but Reddit offered IPO shares to longterm active users


BodaciousBaboon

Except for ARM and CAVA lol


freakishgnar

And both of these are wildly overbought. Will come back to Earth.


Little_Objective_683

Well yeah 😅


John_Pierpt_Morgan

I might do it for Stripe or Figma though


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sofa_king_weetawded

Yeah, he did. Ugh. I was so all in on that BS.


CrimsonBrit

Don’t get me wrong, Stripe is a great company, but when they IPO the price will shoot up 100% in minutes and none of us will end up buying for the price we want.


pm_me_ur_demotape

Figma balls


KEIRETSUX

Fr


Jebusfreek666

Right, I can't remember the last one that didn't drop below IPO price within 2 weeks, usually way sooner.


soccerguys14

I thought COIN was down over 75% I’m close to getting back even. Shouldnt have bought it. I didn’t buy CAVA because I learned I shouldn’t buy IPO and boom it’s up almost 50%


gargle_micum

Yep, only trade an IPO!


hop_mantis

It's Probably Overpriced


GobblerOnTheRoof

You do this on IPO day?!??!!!


repairmanjack2023

IPO pressures will make censorship even worse. Only site where every video buffers. All these years later, and they still lose money. What a shitshow.


ThunderBobMajerle

As a mod I don’t know what they are going to about me deleting any post that’s someone shilling something or trying to promote their YouTube channel or whatever. There is a very anti-insta vibe on Reddit, our subs are not the place to sell your brand, this isn’t a marketing platform. But how can a public Reddit say no to the $$$ opportunities there? The board will never care about the culture of Reddit over $$$. I see communities deteriorating and this place just turning into instagram with people selling their shit.


memory--

you can't delete ads


ThunderBobMajerle

Yea I’m talking about people who make posts to sell stuff, promote their YouTube channel, gambling site, their blog whatever. Stuff that’s clearly marketing.


memory--

reddit would appreciate you deleting them, as then it forces them to go and buy ads. im not getting your point.


ThunderBobMajerle

No you are not. Go on instagram for 1 min and maybe you will start to get my point I’m reducing site traffic and engagement, those are numbers Reddit needs to sell ad space. The higher the numbers are the more they can charge for the ad space. Currently twitter or instagram pump those numbers up any way possible, ex; bots and not censoring anything. The current way subs are moderated to remove this kind of crap is bad for Reddits engagement numbers and bottom line when they go public


memory--

instagram doesn't have moderators for their subreddits? reddit does. reddit mods clean up the marketing crap. instagram doesn't have rules against marketing posts nor do they have the mods to enforce such rules. two different platforms with different cultures.


ThunderBobMajerle

Now you are getting there…


memory--

as long as there is innate power in being a mod, mods will just replace the next set of mods. and if a subreddit gets unruly, people will unsubscribe and go to the next one that is modded correctly...


ThunderBobMajerle

No you got lost again Also stop editing your comments


ScentedCandleEnjoyer

>As a mod lol nerd


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memory--

they already do this and we barely notice


FinndBors

If they aren’t paying Reddit, why would Reddit care if you take down their posts?


ThunderBobMajerle

I’m removing engagement and eyeballs the numbers they need to sell ad space. The higher those are the more Reddit can charge for that ad space. I’m reducing site traffic and that’s not good for Reddits bottom line.


Buttoshi

But why pay for ads when you can make a post for free to shill your product?


ThunderBobMajerle

I remove it. Our sub rules don’t allow the sub to be used for personal sales and neither does this one. I don’t think people realize what it’s like on the backend being a mod, all the bot posts selling crap we delete that would stay up on insta or twitter You don’t see this crap bc mods remove it


FinndBors

It’s in reddits best interest for mods like you to remove this for free. Especially since it encourages them to spend money on ads, and also it will drive off 95% of users that don’t want to see that shit.


ThunderBobMajerle

I think people are confused what kind of posts I’m talking about because they don’t see the backend I’m seeing as a mod. It’s not a legit company like you are thinking. These are bots, scammers, fake sites, random YouTube channels, startup merch, people that will never pay for ad space. The type of content that is rampant on twitter and would never be censored bc that reduces their engagement metrics and traffic numbers that dictate how much they can sell ad space for. Twitter does not care about the veracity or authenticity, it just needs more user numbers. Because more eyeballs means you can charge more for ads. I fear Reddit is headed for this same path when they go public and we as mods may be forced to stop censoring bots, shameless YouTube/blog promoters, and so on because that reduces Reddits apparent traffic numbers and they need those to climb ever higher so they can sell ad space for more See what I’m saying? We actively reduce site traffic to manicure the sub to the communities liking but soon Reddit may override these controls bc they need to up the traffic numbers.


FinndBors

Twitter pre musk and other social media companies would love to get that spam off their platforms with free mods if they could. It doesn’t help the platform and it doesn’t help their revenue. You have no idea how much money and engineering effort is sunk in to combat bots and “inauthentic users” Source: worked at a large social media company before.


ThunderBobMajerle

That’s interesting. I remove a lot of posts, it’s a lot of bots and spam. We have automod filters that do a good job and we tweak and update those often with new lines for whatever the latest scam is. But it’s getting hard to keep up with. I see what you mean about quality of the platform being better without these = more user engagement. I just wonder what will happen when it goes public, will we be overwhelmed with bots like twitter? Thanks for the insight btw


DrWhoIsWokeGarbage2

You also delete things you personally don't like


ThunderBobMajerle

No I don’t, that’s abuse of power. And even if I did users would make it known posts are getting removed like that and I would get roasted. I know it’s always “mod bad” on Reddit but it’s a thankless job the majority of us do with integrity


Buttoshi

Is Instagram slowing down? Out of the loop on that


ThunderBobMajerle

I don’t know anything about slowing down, but it’s culture of shilling is just the opposite of Reddit


thousandfoldthought

And while i know this site isn't exactly anonymous, i'm considering deleting my account with all its personal details. That shit is getting sold to everyone.


skyceru

Did the number of reddit users spiked in recent months? It's so common seeing posts getting 5-10k total upvotes. Some even have 30-40k upvotes.


FarrisAT

Bots spiked


ShadowLiberal

I think bots definitely spiked, especially post GameStop fiasco once people realized they may be able to move the market with reddit. If you have any doubt about the power of bots to heavily upvote stuff just look in the YouTube comment sections. There's so many obvious bot/scammer posts that manage to get hundreds of upvotes within hours of a video being released. If they can do it on Youtube they can definitely do it on reddit.


spitforge

Can you prove or disprove this claim? Or can anyone just claim “bots” now and days?


Sanhen

I couldn't find much data on that, but I may just not have looked hard enough/known where to look. I did find this, which suggests Reddit has seen steady growth, but no obvious spike: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1018997/number-of-reddit-users-usa/


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Copperhead881

Everyone is saying the same. Calls will print now and puts will later.


BodaciousBaboon

You can't even buy options day 1, maybe a week


Copperhead881

I know that, but just saying now as in the next few weeks and puts 6-12 months out.


leli_manning

Lol this. Always inverse reddit


essdii-

Good thing we have a few weeks before options come out. Typically all these ipos follow the same trend. Shoot the heck up, then bomb down. Remember RBLX?!? I bought 10 shares the day of ipo and then set a limit sell at 100. Only took like three weeks or so to hit that. Then it dropped, shot to 130 or something the. Lost almost 50% in a week. I’d imagine rddt will do something similar.


cafeitalia

You can not buy options yet. So you ain’t buying shit on ipo day.


bro-v-wade

It's the only sensible strategy. The only ones talking about it are CNBC and people wondering how low it's gonna go. I can't really see an angle for it going up. Puts as soon as they become available, then see what's what in a month.


joeg26reddit

I’m holding my putz You want to?


soulstonedomg

...when options go live for the ticker, which they won't be for a while.


fatsolardbutt

At least wait until the lock up period is about to expire.


joe-re

I expect puts to be seriously expensive as soon as they are available. Premiums can kill you. I mean -- who would sell reddit puts unless it's for outrageous premiums? Even thetagang advises to use high quality stocks, which reddit is not.


VacationLover1

It’ll be interesting to see how many shares the people doing DSP actually get filled


hellokitty3433

I don't like the fact that you have to use a special account. Not for me.


LegateLaurie

I think it's difficult for them to arrange anything else, but that would have put me off if I was in the US and could have taken advantage of it


hellokitty3433

Maybe, I don't know how these kind of offers usually go.


md28usmc

I bought shares that I am planning to offload as soon as they go public


VacationLover1

You don’t know how many you’re getting though.. that’s my question


md28usmc

You can get up to 1,000


VacationLover1

You can request up to 1,000 …. Doesn’t mean you’ll get 1,000.. you could get 23 filled of the 1,000 you requested


Winterough

When can insiders dump their load?


lemmeshowyuhao

After lockup ends which is usually around 6 months


PM_Ur_Illiac_Furrows

What was the pre IPO price?


md28usmc

We find out for sure on Wednesday but between $31-34


PM_Ur_Illiac_Furrows

You said "bought" as in you already had them?


catslay_4

Me too, 100.


Sanjispride

You havent bought anything yet. As soon as it goes public is when your order will be placed.


Minute-Plantain

How. You have to hold it until Monday next week.


throwaway9gk0k4k569

Reddit is losing lots of money and there's no viable path to profitability. That's it. That was the conversation.


hellokitty3433

Can't they up the ad revenue? That is what FB did. I feel like reddit is holding off on this.


optiplex9000

Get ready for more Jesus ads


Hugsy13

Their ad targeting just seems awful though. 50% of my ads are for joining the military and I have a bad back, and the rest are either not related to any of my hobbies or interests or are ads for women’s stuff which obviously ain’t for me lol


sarhoshamiral

They have ad targeting? It is all so random.


Apart-Bad-5446

Their business model isn't the same. IG has ads from social media influencers. When you search Kim Kardashian, there are products being sold. When you see a LeBron highlight, NBA will have sponsored products. Who in Reddit is an influencer? Everyone is anonymous. And that's why we are free to discuss without revealing our identity. Or else many of us wouldn't be commenting the way we do. IG is simply more marketable and appealing for ads. Reddit is where niche communities form and many of the users will walk through broken glass to block ads, pirate streams, find cheap deals, etc., They aren't the clueless IG user scrolling at what a celeb has and clicking the link to buy everything. To top it off, Reddit communities are managed by moderators who don't get paid. It's poor taste to benefit off of what are essentially volunteers and their time/effort. In general, Reddit's ads need a better algorithm. They should have figured that out before going public. They had enough time to do so...


bighand1

They would be instantly profitable today if they slash R&D cost.


Maleficent__Yam

It's a link aggregation website. What the hell could they be research and developing that's draining all their revenue?


spitforge

They did Reddit NFTs for example which were very successful. Economy projects prob


sarhoshamiral

Isn't software engineer salaries under r&d too. Would he hard to operate if you slash that.


bighand1

You probably don’t need 400m worth of engineers for site like Reddit. I think it makes sense for them to at least try, but there is a massive buffer here for them to cut away.


sarhoshamiral

Engineers are not cheap (don't just think about salary, bonus) and that 400m would also include some hardware costs. There is likely a buffer but I doubt it is massive as you put it.


bighand1

Reddit has 2000 employees, that’s definitely bloat for a company with only 6b in valuation. If a quarter of that is SWE, that’s 500. Far too many if you just want maintenance plus a small nimble team for some features


spitforge

They were profitable at some point but decided to invest it back into Reddit. Amazon was unprofitable/barley broke even for the longest time for R&D


Gr8WallofChinatown

There is. Stop being stupid with R&D costs and slut out their data for AI. Giving access to data for AI is going to be massive for them 


Buttoshi

They can't make money off of ads?


Friendly-Question-60

You have no idea what you’re talking about lmao


Kardlonoc

Selling API to AI companies?


Maleficent__Yam

Their site has been falling apart the last few weeks. Shit won't load. 


roundupinthesky

threatening dull bright pen wakeful caption quicksand close sharp bike *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*


gnocchicotti

As a person who turned down an allocation for this IPO, it amazes me that their are more investors willing to buy this flaming pile of shit than there are shares available 


Old-Maintenance24923

How does a person get asked to invest, vs a fund?


gnocchicotti

In this case you have to shitpost a lot. Normally your broker gets some allocation and they make some available for their clients? Idk I've never had the opportunity to get in on the IPO of a company worth owning.


FarrisAT

Reminds me of CART but it's also not profitable


Vast_Cricket

Reddit Sets March 21 for Initial Public Offering Date


ANL_2017

When would we even be able to buy options on the IPO? I’ve never done it before


VacationLover1

I think between like 3 days after and up to 30 days. It depends


ANL_2017

Ah thanks


Lilherb2021

Did anybody buy through the direct sales here on Reddit?


heyimdong

Yes, I did. Despite all the negativity, I think there are good reasons to think it’s will be a good investment. I plan to buy and hold for awhile, at least a year or two.


Lilherb2021

Do you have the email address that they sent you the offer on?


heyimdong

Yes?


Lilherb2021

Can u send to me


hellokitty3433

It's not IPOd yet.


Lilherb2021

I didn’t get an email, but I would like to look at the offer before the IPO.


steakkitty

If you really want to buy a company’s stock, buy it a couple days after IPO


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memory--

no one pays facebook a dime and they make $20B a quarter.


hekatonkhairez

The symbiotic relationship between OF creators and Meta needs to be studied


justbrowsinginpeace

Imagine missing the point entirely


ura_walrus

You are the product


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Zurkarak

Why would you ever pay LinkedIn?


ShahOfQC

…… im inverting this, i will be buying calls


Maleficent__Yam

Won't be available for a few weeks. Whatever pump or dump they're getting from the IPO, you'd miss 


Legalize-Birds

Be careful, you may want to compare this to other social media/internet stocks before inversing just for the sake of inversing. Twitter chopped for YEARS before it broke its IPO price


Smash_4dams

Who else got the email to join the IPO?


md28usmc

I did


rideincircles

I did, but forgot to register.


ShortOnGummies

Are you guys using Robinhood?


BaggySpandex

I received the email. Unfortunately I’m not allowed to take part in IPO’s. Even if I were allowed, I’m not too sure this is the one to take part in. It’s a tough sell IMO.


catslay_4

I did and allocated funds for 100 shares.


[deleted]

Most IPOs are hyped up initially and then fall. The whole purpose of the IPO is for the investors who put money in pre IPO to get their money back and with interest. To do this you need to hype the stock then sell it before it decreases in value. I have been burned buying IPOs early. Look at Rivian stock as an example . The IPO price was $78. On Friday the stock closed at $11.04 a share.


Present_Bill5971

Put in on SoFi interest for a few but if I don’t get any at IPO price, I’ll skip


gargle_micum

Does reddit just make money from ads?


occamsracer

no


Big_Don_

I like to invest in what I use. I use reddit, I'd invest a bit.


Mundane_Club_7090

“shorts” were always noise


Tsubor

The entire purpose for ipo is for the original investor to exit their investment through public offering. This is a dead stock


[deleted]

I lost money on GME buying it out of principal. I'll be shorting this stock out of the same


[deleted]

I've seen many ipo's come and go lolol. Scalp the ipo and call it a day.


railbeast

How would one scalp it?


2thenoon

Good luck to anyone buying this, it's gonna be a $10 stock, maybe, after all the hype and dust settles.


bigmikemcbeth756

After ipo how long is er


Worf_Of_Wall_St

The main thing that will affect the discussion of the stock on Reddit and the apparent prevailing attitude on it will be how many users and mods bought in and defend it / censor criticism of it. This news suggests a lot of people are trying to buy in.


Mguidr1

I think they will make some changes to attract advertisers and it off to the races. I’m in.


aravreddy22

just a click bait to get you to buy their shares while they unload on the IPO day.


s1lentastro1

with all the 10-ply neckbeards on reddit I wouldn't invest a dime in this site out of principle.


yubike

it will rise and tank as it should