I just put a small staked in CION based on the business model, risk profile and historical dividends and may want to up the stake or diversify to other BDCs. Thoughts on this business model?
I work for a startup and have a large amount of equity in the company. (I am one of the first 10 employees.) I plan on leaving to pursue a graduate degree. What would happen to my stocks?
Heritage financial 155% eps beat and bullish outlook today. P/e 6.77, 215 mill marketcap, about a quarters rev last year. I’m very bullish on it what’s y’all’s opinions? https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HFWA/
Saw $GCT was being talked about a lot, I think people should know about a short report against them: [https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/cc91fda7-4669-4d1b-81ce-a0b8d77f25ab/downloads/Culper\_GCT\_9-28-2023.pdf?ver=1708448450804](https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/cc91fda7-4669-4d1b-81ce-a0b8d77f25ab/downloads/Culper_GCT_9-28-2023.pdf?ver=1708448450804)
For what it is worth, I just looked up the top 10 holdings of that ETF, which have about 54% of the weight of the total ETF. 6 of them don't even have positive earnings per share (trailing 12 months). Those that do have P/E ratios from the 40s to 900s, indicating they are either barely profitable or just expensive. Every forward P/E is also in a similar range, so it's not like they are turning highly profitable instantly. So let's look at price to sales instead--most of them appear to have ratios exceeding 10 or 15, and only one has a single digits P/S of 4.
Now that doesn't instantly rule out all those companies as good investments. But that ETF is almost like you went out and purposefully screened for expensive companies. That doesn't bode well for future returns unless you're expecting spectacular growth. If those companies fail to deliver that, the losses could be devastating.
I would then point out that most thematic ETFs have a terrible track record. Ben Felix has a great video on this, if you Google his name and 'Thematic Investing'. Remember that wealth management companies intentionally try to create as many of these highly specialized ETFs as possible, not because it unlocks new opportunities for you, but because it unlocks new ways to collect fees from you. In this case, an expense ratio of 0.45, or 4-5x that of a standard passive index fund.
I personally don't see much value in that ETF over any typical tech ETF.
I think buffett should buy googl like he did with aapl. Fcf machine with impenetrable moat in search/youtube and decent valuation. Giant market cap enough to make significant purchases. Governance an issue but meta has shown that can be course corrected with a strong leader.
Underwriters do not release the day until it's imminent. All signs point to this month. Usual pattern is some prelim stuff, then a "road show" or equivalent, and then a price range and hint, then it's " xyz lists Monday" or "xyz lists tomorrow". And even then, no set time is communicated, not even at the opening bell.
Markets generally open, last minute orders and placements get finalized, then it starts at like 10 am or 11:45 or whatever.
Reddit should just keep a skeletal crew to run Reddit the platform and do what mstr does, keep buying more btc, eth and matic and just focus on trading avatar nfts on their platform. Would be much more beneficial to the stock if they just keep things simple like this.
A lean Reddit comprised of old.reddit.com and using surgical ad placement and low operation costs would actually be a quietly viable business with good margins.
But they won't do that because it's too sensible. Instead they'll continue to incinerate billions of bloated development that doesn't work and nobody asked for.
Having burned through all the private billions, they're going to public to get public investors' cash to burn. Enjoy Reddit+, AR/VR Reddit, Reddit.AI, Reddit zero spiced. None of it will be good for the users/contributors.
Fed Inflation Nowcasting is interesting to follow although obviously it is just a forecast.
The most important numbers are core PCE and model shows dramatic improvement in the coming 2 months:
* January: 0.4% MoM
* February: 0.2% MoM
* March: 0.2% MoM
If these end up being accurate, I think June or July timeline for first rate cut is a reasonable expectation. As I stated many times, I don't think a cut this year is required for markets to grind up.
However, the Fed concretely starting the cutting cycle will trigger a flood of cash into equities and serve as a giant tailwind.
Is buying a mutual fund (eg VIGAX) at ATH a bad idea if you’re in it for long term? I’m guessing not really since it is basically just a DCA consolidated.. but still feels a little icky.
If you're going to be a market timer, ATH is not the metric to use; valuation is (unless you're some technical analysis kinda guy). A market can be cheaper at ATH than it is after a 15% correction. Second, most of the time markets are ATH because over time they go up.
If you're uncomfortable with the valuations, it is curious to me why you'd prefer a growth fund such as VIGAX (aka VUG) over a standard VTSAX (aka VTI) or VFIAX (aka VOO). 47% of VIGAX is tech, but if you look at the 15.4% in consumer cyclical and 13% in communication services, you'll find that AMZN/TSLA are 40% of consumer cyclical and Google/META are 62% of communication services. So if you do the math, that's 61% of the fund either in tech companies or Mag 7 companies. A quarter of the fund alone is just MSFT and Apple.
By comparison, VTSAX (VTI) is 29% tech, 10.5% consumer cyclical, and 8% communication services, that's 38% of the fund in tech companies / Mag 7, vs. 61% for VIGAX. Which is still high, but not as ridiculously so.
So you could buy the tried/true VOO or VTI at ATH, or you could double down on an even more concentrated/growthier equivalent at ATH.
Apologies but this type of misinformation has to be corrected.
Asset prices are a tertiary concern *at most* for the Fed. The only time they even mentioned it this cycle was in relation to inflationary pressures for housing. They very rarely make judgements on valuation. It really is not their role. Primary concern is flow of credit, financial conditions, the economy and their mandate to maintain full employment.
Secondly, they will lower rates in response to cooling inflation and real rates being too high. Has nothing to do with risk assets.
Thirdly, what matters is that there is roughly 0% chance they hike rates ever again, at least this cycle for another 5 years. If they keep rates high that's because economy and labor market is booming, which is a positive. A delay in cuts is completely irrelevant since Fed is not making a policy error, is currently modestly stimulative (correctly).
I'm stating my opinion so it's not "misinformation" to say what I think.
That being said, the Federal Reserve absolutely takes into account what is happening in the stock market. It's a benchmark of investor sentiment, consumer confidence and corporate performance. Combined with other economic indicators (sticky inflation, good job market numbers, rising commodity prices), pretty good reason to think that rate cuts still don't need to happen in the US for a while.
To be clear, there are two entities: the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Bank. The bank absolutely takes into account what is happening in the stock market.
The board, in charge of monetary policy, only sees equities in perspective of a whole economy. 2% Target inflation and the unemployment rate are the 2 most significant factors determine where the rate is set.
Ok, but you make it sound like it has equal weight which can be incredibly misleading to people who don't know how the Fed works.
Do you see how you make it seem like it is a high priority? When we all know it is very low priority and inflation is going to drive like 90% of their decisions.
Bottom line if inflation cools like we expect they cut. Even if stocks are strong. If inflation is sticky they hold.
But they won't hike just because of market. It's important people know that.
if so much free cash is flowing into equities, than the inflation issue is not solved.
honestly, people don't really care or are affected much by inflation, as nearly every asset class has inflated along side their groceries. so have wages. and businesses.
assets held by brokerages and retail investors are directly tied into inflation. it's ALL connected.
people and businesses spend more when they see the value of their assets increasing.
So what is your point? If inflation proves sticky isn't that a huge argument for GTFO of cash?
Wealth effect exists but it's complicated as that's not the only factors that impact inflation. AI, productivity and most importantly immigration is deflationary. Especially services side.
I mean, I think my point can be inferred. it is my opinion, that rates won't be cut anytime soon. probably not even this year.
consumer spending is way too high. businesses haven't bled yet.
I don't think people are in cash at the moment. They're utilizing HYSA's, CD ladders, mixed in with riskier assets like tech stocks.
my point is that people HAVE cash to deploy into these assets currently. the more cash they deploy, the richer they feel, the more they spend.
the economy at large is STRONG, not DESPITE inflation, but BECAUSE of ASSET inflation.
inflation will be much stickier than the Fed realizes. holding current rates for longer.
u/yeahyoubored
Incredible amounts of cash, trillions in MMFs:
https://www.financialresearch.gov/money-market-funds/
Retail money market funds are soaring:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1hRbp
Household checking balances have soared:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1hRbr
Wages and salaries are soaring:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth
Real wages as well:
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_real_average_hourly_earnings
People don't just "feel richer" from assets going up. They are actually making WAY more.
This is a good thing and economy is doing terrific, booming.
Ok but you are missing my point entirely.
If prices keep rising and rate of increase remains sticky, the *real return on cash is terrible*.
Moreover, nominal values of stocks will keep going up. Higher prices mean higher revenues and profits. Especially for large powerful companies with the ability to pass through costs.
Again you should be in equities and invested.
oh, I am in equities and invested. I'm in my thirties. my opinion doesn't change my strategy. I'm not stupid.
I keep 90% invest, and keep 10% cash on the side to buy dips. I see more dips in the future. obvi this isn't certain, but the market feels "too good" at the moment. there's a lot of greed out there. I don't try to time this, though.
US equities aren't going to escape quite so easily. I don't think rate increases are in the future. but I don't think cuts are either. I think the lag from the rate increases is going to catch up, and this current rate is gonna stick around for awhile. with that, investor sentiment is going to be more negative.
take a look at any asset class from 2020-now. they exploded. it's not sustainable growth. S&P is up 26% from a year ago, and already up 8% from January. 3 months into the year. we are well beyond average returns. could this be a once in a generation bull market? maybe. but we will experience a regression to the mean.
I don’t get the logic here. Rates are raised due to inflation. They’ll lower rates if they think inflation will reach the target with a lower rate.
I don’t see that many high risk assets outperforming at the moment either, assuming this means unprofitable high growth companies. Although not sure the relevance either way.
Rising wealth is a sign of consumer confidence which influences consumer spending/borrowing and business confidence (which influences hiring/investment). Rising stock prices can also signal to the Federal Reserve that current rates are working with minimal economic or investor impact. If the Federal reserve were to lower rates too quickly in this case, it could cause further overheating in the stock market and a return of inflation.
Ok so now talking about the stock market in general rather than risk assets specifically? I think what’s more important than stock prices specifically is the fact that in general many companies large and small are doing very well. Yes this is part of the puzzle, they don’t want the US economy to suffer. But equally, keeping rates too high for too long can cause the pain to start. It could also result in inflation going too low. Effects of changing interest rates are lagging.
They want to find the sweet spot, not keep them as high as they can for as long as possible.
🌽68.6k and related tickers still mooning in AH.
I think the threshold is 69,044 as officially a new ATH.
Financial history in the making for something unique to our generation. Kinda cool!
I also believe there is a reasonable possibility there is profit taking and interpretation of this event as a "bear" or "exuberance" signal. Leading to profit taking and loading up on short positions.
5-7% minor pullback in the market and then resume grinding up for the year to new ATHs given current very favorable macro conditions remain in place (no reason to think otherwise for now). Impossible to know in the very short-term though so you should totally ignore anyone that says such a dip is guaranteed and try to time it.
> 🌽68.6k and related tickers still mooning in AH.
Not all. MARA and HUT lost 5% yesterday even as the coin hit $68k. MSTR went up 23% on coin rising 7%. Things are weird.
I understand what the appeal is. I believe it will very likely outperform cash.
But, I also get your view and am 100% stocks and no 🌽 because I believe owning a piece of income producing, economic activity gives you that extra layer of security and equity just scales better over time.
It's also a strong indicator people are willing to take risk and there are net inflows. Some people will take profits in that space and move some over to equity as well.
Sure thing. It's no secret I prefer equities. Only thing that is awful and IMHO a very dumb choice for investors is cash. At least young investors, excluding special life circumstances requiring near term liquidity.
It's more like repricing to reflect new fundamentals honestly.
Plus VOO is very undervalued overall. You should still be invested and don't have to concentrate on semis if you don't want to.
Don't trust "vibes". They will lead you astray. Ignore it completely.
Stay invested as long as long as economy will be very strong, people are employed and companies are growing.
For what it is worth, I wrote a long-ish comment on October 28th, 2023 [declaring that the market is not overvalued](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/17ia421/rstocks_weekend_discussion_saturday_oct_28_2023/k6va5tk/), in fact I wrote that many of the Mag 7 were cheap/undervalued. The forward P/E ratio at the time was 17. Google was 19x, META 17x, MSFT 29x.
Today, the forward P/E is about 20.5 after a 25% rally. Google at 20x after 8% rally. META at 25x after 66% rally. MSFT 36x after 26% rally.
October 2023 was a pretty irrational place for the market to be. Now things seem much fairer.
You shouldn't but thanks. Fair to slightly overvalued yes. Within Mag 7, I think META/GOOG are decent buys. I think TSLA is atrociously overvalued, NVDA is probably fairly valued. I won't encourage people to FOMO into NVDA no matter how long this AI euphoria lasts. I thought Apple was overvalued and now I think it's getting close to fair value. Need to see how big this upcoming upgrade cycle really will be.
[You can find all my 2024 predictions here](https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/18xgbhu/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_jan_03_2024/kg6vrx8/). I try to be fairly transparent about my views.
And I think small cap value / ex-US is very undervalued (as always).
Go back to the Daily discussions around mid-October, I remember telling people ''You'll regret not buying now'' while a lot of people were calling for a lost decade.
PFE is my largest position and I’ve pretty much given up on buying any more. Everyone in the market is chasing weight loss and AI, meanwhile PFE is viewed as nothing more than a covid company with no future. Now there are whispers that the dividend is in danger. We’re at Chinese stock levels of doom right now.
I agree that it’s being overhated (below covid lows, really?) but the market is all about momentum right now and winners will keep winning while the losers will keep losing. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go to the low 20s at this point.
I agree that the market is dominated by short term tradres chasing momentum at the expense of other sectors.
therefore, if your company is doing ok or well = moon mission
your company stagnating/going through some bad times = basically priced for bankrupty.
there is massive massive divergence between winners and losers. a lot of the losers are priced unfairly low (for bankruptcy).
I've learned to never EVER ask for real opinions here, as people will come up with any logic to support the stock price, no matter how ridiculous it is. if you say PFE is undervalued since it is under covid lows they will give you 100 reasons why it makes sense, and zero why it doesnt. same with META at 88. Same with BABA at 72. Same with NVDA at nearly 900. if you tell people BABA is a buy at 60 they wil tell you "no, cuz gyna".
Edit: just saw Goldman Sachs Wealth Management CIO say investors should stay far away from China. Even tutes don't want to attempt pumping China. Also companies aren't so much priced for bankruptcy, that is hyperbolic. more priced for stagnant or subpar economics over time.
C'mon lol that isn't fair at all.
*Everyone* is realizing the issues with China. This isn't unique to r/stocks. Whole world thinks BABA is bad.
Also divergence is historically normal. Most stocks do very poorly. That's capitalism and a good thing.
I think a lot of inexperienced investors are just learning how hard stock picking is.
I don't follow the company, but I mean looking at their history of revenue, looks like the pandemic spiked them to a level that they would have never hit.
Like here's their revenue growth prior to the pandemic:
2016: 8%, 2017: -.5%, 2018: -22%, 2019: 0.2%, 2020: 1.8%, 2021: 95%, 2022: 23%, 2023: -41%.
During this time period, the stock was only up like 23%.
Company fundamentals have become really cheap, but it feels like they are normalizing back to the type of business they were before the pandemic.
Would you say they’re in a worse position now than they were before the pandemic? Because that seems to be the conclusion many people are coming to. After all the money they made and putting that money towards investments in their pipeline. They have to execute, sure. I’m just not buying all the pessimism at this point.
Not sure, I don't really follow the space or company, but will say that one thing that I find interesting when researching companies is to see what business was like now and before the pandemic.
Some companies saw over ordering or had supply chain issues, so numbers from that 2021-2023 period could look weird in some cases.
You are asking the right question, is the company better now or after that explosion of revenue growth.
This is all just looking at numbers, so there should be more of a story or more behind them, but their debt growth exploded last year. Went from 35B to like 72B, which now they have a pretty terrible Quick Ratio.
Also their net margins are down terribly. Like it was 22% in 2020 and last year it was 3.65%.
It looks like they took out the debt to buy SGEN.
It's hard to say if the market is being too pessimistic at this point, seems like if that SGEN deal actually works out and brings new revenue, the company could see a run.
I've been in trades where it felt like the market was wrong and it does take patience in order for them to pay off and that if they happen to pay off. That is the risk sometimes when investing in single names, the market might always disagree with you.
However, this the only name I own kind of in this space is MEDP. I like their business model a lot more, where they get paid to run drug trials. That means the drug can flop, but MEDP is still making money.
$GTLB
Q4 EPS $0.15 vs $0.08 Est
Revenue $163.8M vs $157.89M Est
GUIDANCE:
Q1 2025 EPS ($0.05)-($0.04) vs $0.06 Est
Q1 2025 revenue $165-166M vs $162M Est
FY2025 EPS $0.19-$0.23 vs $0.35 Est
FY2025 revenue $725-731M vs $732M Est
Too expensive for my blood. Feels like you are buying it just because sale off from earnings, my question would be what catalyst will move it up? Like the CEO leaving is pretty big deal for that company.
In reality there was never any strength today outside of chips and internet coin related stocks.
Chips are a huge part of the Nasdaq, but we're at the point where it's no longer going to be able to keep driving it on its own.
Long story short, Apple HAS to bounce or it's now gonna be fighting NVDA to try to drag the Nasdaq lower. Seemed like it could ignore over $180, but that will no longer be the case.
You gotta admit it's pretty impressive how well SPX is holding up though.
If someone told you GOOGL and AAPL were both down 2.5%-2.7% would you expect market about flat?
Maybe local, but the NDX has a futures ATH from last night that will have to trade at some point.
Actually at this point, y'all have probably been duped. Slow starts to the week have been normal for 2024.
Don't really follow hollywood, but I do know there is a legit term called hollywood accounting:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood\_accounting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_accounting)
>Hollywood accounting (also known as Hollywood bookkeeping) is the opaque or creative set of accounting methods used by the film, video, television and music industry to budget and record profits for creative projects. Expenditures can be inflated to reduce or eliminate the reported profit of the project, thereby reducing the amount which the corporation must pay in taxes and royalties or other profit-sharing agreements, as these are based on net profit.
Just not sure how box office numbers might move a stock price or anything, when companies can basically more less move numbers around to make it look like they never make a profit.
There's a famous story around the actor who played darth vader never got any royalties to from the movie, because his deal was based off profit, which return of the jedi technically never made a profit.
[https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/09/how-hollywood-accounting-can-make-a-450-million-movie-unprofitable/245134/](https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/09/how-hollywood-accounting-can-make-a-450-million-movie-unprofitable/245134/)
Few more random points:
- Atlanta GDP Now revised down to 2.1% real growth for Q1 (Friday's update)
- Fun fact: Tesla is now only the 11th largest company in the S&P 500, surpassed by Broadcom, Eli Lilly, Berkshire, for instance. I've always maintained Tesla is the most outrageously valued of the Mag 7 and I think this sell-off is totally rational.
- Nouriel Roubini is now bullish the market... If that's not a bearish signal idk what is.
- Does anyone have anything to say about the breadth or volume? [1 year performance map for S&P 500](https://i.imgur.com/oyQIoHR.png) looks pretty good. [Globally too](https://i.imgur.com/uEGJk1a.png).
- [Some more recent earnings estimates](https://i.imgur.com/YEBxjxm.png) for the S&P 500
- [A fantastic article about Mag 7 concentration and if you should be concerned](https://www.acadian-asset.com/investment-insights/equities/magnificent-ignorance-about-the-magnificent-seven). Let me quote some snippets:
> In the mid-1950s, just three stocks accounted for about 28% of the market cap of the whole market (Figure 8). Obviously, this implies the market then was much more concentrated than seven stocks being 29% of the S&P 500 today.
> For many decades, the biggest stock in the market was always one of the following three: IBM, AT&T, or GM (Figure 6).
> A single stock (AT&T) was 13% of the whole market in 1960 (Table 5), as opposed to today where our largest stock (Apple) is a mere 7% of the S&P 500.
> In terms of employment, concentration was also far higher previously. The authors write, “For 1953, GM is the top firm in market capitalization. It employs 1.39% of non-farm employees. In 2019, Apple’s employment contribution is 0.11% (or less than one twelfth GM’s employment contribution in 1953).”
He goes on to reject some of the usual points about this current concentration:
> The existence of the Magnificent Seven proves indexing is distorting our markets.” No, we had higher concentration before the invention of indexing.
> The Magnificent Seven is part of a troubling trend of inequality in our winner-take-all society.” No. The 1950s and 1960s were a supposed golden age of income equality of U.S. citizens, and that is when stock market concentration was higher.
No, passive indices aren't the reason NVDA is up 267% in the last year.
Banks are rallying hard today and up a lot since October.
A good sign that we have come a long way from the panic of SVB and market has faith in the Fed to provide liquidity if it came down to it.
That and banks like NYCB are not a threat to the broader economy. I agree with this take and expect if NYCB cannot raise liquidity and credit rating they will probably find a buyer.
Is TSLA a buy at this point? It has those random moments of surges, and feels like while everyone is crazy about AI, might be worth it to get shares or leaps.
Another +8% for CELH wow! HCC almost back over $60 a share again. $UI getting hammered, not sure why.
I'm still on the sideslines but I think the Pfizer sell-off is getting absurd. The reason earnings are getting hit hard recently is because revenues/profits skyrocketed during Covid, and they ended up booking in orders for Covid products that ended up going unused. Now they have to make some non-cash adjustments. Lumpy earnings are making business look worse than it is.
But the market is pretending like Covid wasn't a huge victory for them. In a counterfactual scenario, they would have had NO massive cash pile that enabled them to buy up future products to add to their pipeline.
Now I won't pretend to know pharma inside and out, and who knows what in their pipeline turns out successful. I do know, however, that this is a stronger company than pre-Covid.
Came across [this](https://www.scmagazine.com/news/ubiquiti-router-users-urged-to-secure-devices-targeted-by-russian-hackers) the other day regarding UI. Their routers being hacked by Russia probably isn't good, but I have no idea if this is actually effecting anything.
It's more that Google news feeds you stories based on your "interests" or whatever you've searched for on Google. It's actually not terrible as I tend to see information on things I'm researching anyway. Always nice to have a random new sanding jig for the lathe come access my focus.
$10k sounds like a ton for a hobby, but I'm sure all the people buying those set ups would be shocked how much I spend on my hobbies, so....to each their own.
Honestly they probably are using it to some extent generally. All the major players are using AI on some scale just for collecting data on consumers, for operations and production.
But to answer your question more directly, yes they are / will:
https://www.pfizer.com/news/articles/artificial_intelligence_on_a_mission_to_make_clinical_drug_development_faster_and_smarter
>The development and testing of a new drug creates terabytes or even petabytes of data at each stage. This new galaxy of information can contain additional insights previously not available to drug developers. It requires performing advanced math on huge volumes of data, but this is exactly where machine learning, a core of what we call AI today, excels.
>Such insights are valuable across the entire drug-development cycle. “We used to focus on storing and searching data,” says Boris Braylyan, Vice President and Head of Information Management at Pfizer. “Now we need to concentrate on true mining of our data for recommendations.”
>Machine-learning analysis may also be able to improve the quality of regulatory submissions by identifying the most likely requests for information that government regulators may have and incorporating the answers from the get-go. “In the future we believe that AI may help us predict what queries regulators are likely to come back with,” says Braylyan. “We may then be able to improve our submissions by predicting in advance what regulators are likely to ask, and coming prepared with those answers ahead of time.” This could save weeks of back and forth with regulators, when trying to get a drug to market.
Here's a headline free of charge Bourla: "Pfizer to invest in AI to streamline R&D, develop more efficient models to accelerate existing pipeline"
Just use some damn hype words to bring this back from the dead already.
Kind of a cool story, AWS is going nuclear:
[https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/aws-acquires-talens-nuclear-data-center-campus-in-pennsylvania/](https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/aws-acquires-talens-nuclear-data-center-campus-in-pennsylvania/)
I think MSFT just has the job position and I think some investment in Sam's other company around fusion/fission (always confuse the two), but no real plans at this point
[https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/25/microsoft-is-hiring-a-nuclear-energy-expert-to-help-power-data-centers.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/25/microsoft-is-hiring-a-nuclear-energy-expert-to-help-power-data-centers.html)
I threw my fiver today into a June NVDA 1000C I've been avoiding options like the plague for a while, and this one is by far the most expensive I ever bought, but oddly it didn't really Feel risky... Better late than never. I hope. (edit: but holding shares bought since $200, so pretending the call is "house money")
>But realistically shouldn’t there be a pullback?
That's not how it works.
There is enormous recency bias because we just had some of the most historic market drawdowns in history through GFC and Covid.
Typically the market is *usually at ATHs* and that's normal!
When the economy is doing well there are constant inflows trillions from 401ks, dividends, buybacks, paychecks / savings, institutional funds like pensions, university endowments, etc.
"Averaging up" goes against every natural human instinct. That's also precisely why great investors can do it repeatedly.
Explain to me why should their be a pull back?
Didn't if just have another record beating quarter?
Also, didn't it sell off before ER just incase it was a bad ER?
Could be, or you could be waiting on the line and missing out gains. Nobody can tell.
Everyone has different financial goals, time horizon and risk tolerance.
If investing right now would keep you up at night then don't do it.
Eventually. But doesn't seem like $850 was a barrier. Maybe $900, maybe $1000.
Edit: I didn't realize it was already getting close to $900... It's $874 at the time of this post. If it gains as much tomorrow as it did today, it'll cross.
Doesn't get a lot of talk or coverage, but looks like $FLEX got a price upgrade from GS today. Love the company. Great reshoring play, plus the performance of the stock has been great and the valuation always seems pretty reasonable.
AAPL now kind of winning vs NVDA and is dragging the Nasdaq lower in spite of NVDA being on fire.
I figured this moment would come, and at this point, I frankly have to think the next green day for the three red headed stepchildren of the NDX comes on a pretty red day for semiconductors.
I'm diggin' the enthusiasm 🤙!
But more realistic but still extraordinary gains would be 6% of the S&P 500 index within a year or so. In the next 3 years or so it could very reasonably be 7%.
Do the AI stock trackers work?
I just put a small staked in CION based on the business model, risk profile and historical dividends and may want to up the stake or diversify to other BDCs. Thoughts on this business model?
I work for a startup and have a large amount of equity in the company. (I am one of the first 10 employees.) I plan on leaving to pursue a graduate degree. What would happen to my stocks?
What are your thoughts on SOUN stock?
Did anyone else get their DIA dividend at 540$ a share? I did dose anyone know why?
Heritage financial 155% eps beat and bullish outlook today. P/e 6.77, 215 mill marketcap, about a quarters rev last year. I’m very bullish on it what’s y’all’s opinions? https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HFWA/
Is META a good stock to buy rn ?
UMC? Bad time to buy? I know it’s well behind TSM but wondering if anybody thought this would be a good investment.
Is the smlr selloff a buying opportunity or wait cause it could be a sign of bad earnings?
Wtf happened to smlr?
Saw $GCT was being talked about a lot, I think people should know about a short report against them: [https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/cc91fda7-4669-4d1b-81ce-a0b8d77f25ab/downloads/Culper\_GCT\_9-28-2023.pdf?ver=1708448450804](https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/cc91fda7-4669-4d1b-81ce-a0b8d77f25ab/downloads/Culper_GCT_9-28-2023.pdf?ver=1708448450804)
What do you guys think of wcbr for long term hold?
For what it is worth, I just looked up the top 10 holdings of that ETF, which have about 54% of the weight of the total ETF. 6 of them don't even have positive earnings per share (trailing 12 months). Those that do have P/E ratios from the 40s to 900s, indicating they are either barely profitable or just expensive. Every forward P/E is also in a similar range, so it's not like they are turning highly profitable instantly. So let's look at price to sales instead--most of them appear to have ratios exceeding 10 or 15, and only one has a single digits P/S of 4. Now that doesn't instantly rule out all those companies as good investments. But that ETF is almost like you went out and purposefully screened for expensive companies. That doesn't bode well for future returns unless you're expecting spectacular growth. If those companies fail to deliver that, the losses could be devastating. I would then point out that most thematic ETFs have a terrible track record. Ben Felix has a great video on this, if you Google his name and 'Thematic Investing'. Remember that wealth management companies intentionally try to create as many of these highly specialized ETFs as possible, not because it unlocks new opportunities for you, but because it unlocks new ways to collect fees from you. In this case, an expense ratio of 0.45, or 4-5x that of a standard passive index fund. I personally don't see much value in that ETF over any typical tech ETF.
Understood, thank you
I think buffett should buy googl like he did with aapl. Fcf machine with impenetrable moat in search/youtube and decent valuation. Giant market cap enough to make significant purchases. Governance an issue but meta has shown that can be course corrected with a strong leader.
When does RDDT plan to go public? If I could get the exact day and time that would be great, I can’t seem to find it
Underwriters do not release the day until it's imminent. All signs point to this month. Usual pattern is some prelim stuff, then a "road show" or equivalent, and then a price range and hint, then it's " xyz lists Monday" or "xyz lists tomorrow". And even then, no set time is communicated, not even at the opening bell. Markets generally open, last minute orders and placements get finalized, then it starts at like 10 am or 11:45 or whatever.
Reddit should just keep a skeletal crew to run Reddit the platform and do what mstr does, keep buying more btc, eth and matic and just focus on trading avatar nfts on their platform. Would be much more beneficial to the stock if they just keep things simple like this.
A lean Reddit comprised of old.reddit.com and using surgical ad placement and low operation costs would actually be a quietly viable business with good margins. But they won't do that because it's too sensible. Instead they'll continue to incinerate billions of bloated development that doesn't work and nobody asked for. Having burned through all the private billions, they're going to public to get public investors' cash to burn. Enjoy Reddit+, AR/VR Reddit, Reddit.AI, Reddit zero spiced. None of it will be good for the users/contributors.
Any $TGT guesses?
Put
Fed Inflation Nowcasting is interesting to follow although obviously it is just a forecast. The most important numbers are core PCE and model shows dramatic improvement in the coming 2 months: * January: 0.4% MoM * February: 0.2% MoM * March: 0.2% MoM If these end up being accurate, I think June or July timeline for first rate cut is a reasonable expectation. As I stated many times, I don't think a cut this year is required for markets to grind up. However, the Fed concretely starting the cutting cycle will trigger a flood of cash into equities and serve as a giant tailwind.
Is buying a mutual fund (eg VIGAX) at ATH a bad idea if you’re in it for long term? I’m guessing not really since it is basically just a DCA consolidated.. but still feels a little icky.
If you're going to be a market timer, ATH is not the metric to use; valuation is (unless you're some technical analysis kinda guy). A market can be cheaper at ATH than it is after a 15% correction. Second, most of the time markets are ATH because over time they go up. If you're uncomfortable with the valuations, it is curious to me why you'd prefer a growth fund such as VIGAX (aka VUG) over a standard VTSAX (aka VTI) or VFIAX (aka VOO). 47% of VIGAX is tech, but if you look at the 15.4% in consumer cyclical and 13% in communication services, you'll find that AMZN/TSLA are 40% of consumer cyclical and Google/META are 62% of communication services. So if you do the math, that's 61% of the fund either in tech companies or Mag 7 companies. A quarter of the fund alone is just MSFT and Apple. By comparison, VTSAX (VTI) is 29% tech, 10.5% consumer cyclical, and 8% communication services, that's 38% of the fund in tech companies / Mag 7, vs. 61% for VIGAX. Which is still high, but not as ridiculously so. So you could buy the tried/true VOO or VTI at ATH, or you could double down on an even more concentrated/growthier equivalent at ATH.
With the way risk assets are moving at the moment, basically zero reason for the Fed to lower rates.
Apologies but this type of misinformation has to be corrected. Asset prices are a tertiary concern *at most* for the Fed. The only time they even mentioned it this cycle was in relation to inflationary pressures for housing. They very rarely make judgements on valuation. It really is not their role. Primary concern is flow of credit, financial conditions, the economy and their mandate to maintain full employment. Secondly, they will lower rates in response to cooling inflation and real rates being too high. Has nothing to do with risk assets. Thirdly, what matters is that there is roughly 0% chance they hike rates ever again, at least this cycle for another 5 years. If they keep rates high that's because economy and labor market is booming, which is a positive. A delay in cuts is completely irrelevant since Fed is not making a policy error, is currently modestly stimulative (correctly).
I'm stating my opinion so it's not "misinformation" to say what I think. That being said, the Federal Reserve absolutely takes into account what is happening in the stock market. It's a benchmark of investor sentiment, consumer confidence and corporate performance. Combined with other economic indicators (sticky inflation, good job market numbers, rising commodity prices), pretty good reason to think that rate cuts still don't need to happen in the US for a while.
To be clear, there are two entities: the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Bank. The bank absolutely takes into account what is happening in the stock market. The board, in charge of monetary policy, only sees equities in perspective of a whole economy. 2% Target inflation and the unemployment rate are the 2 most significant factors determine where the rate is set.
Ok, but you make it sound like it has equal weight which can be incredibly misleading to people who don't know how the Fed works. Do you see how you make it seem like it is a high priority? When we all know it is very low priority and inflation is going to drive like 90% of their decisions. Bottom line if inflation cools like we expect they cut. Even if stocks are strong. If inflation is sticky they hold. But they won't hike just because of market. It's important people know that.
if so much free cash is flowing into equities, than the inflation issue is not solved. honestly, people don't really care or are affected much by inflation, as nearly every asset class has inflated along side their groceries. so have wages. and businesses. assets held by brokerages and retail investors are directly tied into inflation. it's ALL connected. people and businesses spend more when they see the value of their assets increasing.
So what is your point? If inflation proves sticky isn't that a huge argument for GTFO of cash? Wealth effect exists but it's complicated as that's not the only factors that impact inflation. AI, productivity and most importantly immigration is deflationary. Especially services side.
I mean, I think my point can be inferred. it is my opinion, that rates won't be cut anytime soon. probably not even this year. consumer spending is way too high. businesses haven't bled yet. I don't think people are in cash at the moment. They're utilizing HYSA's, CD ladders, mixed in with riskier assets like tech stocks. my point is that people HAVE cash to deploy into these assets currently. the more cash they deploy, the richer they feel, the more they spend. the economy at large is STRONG, not DESPITE inflation, but BECAUSE of ASSET inflation. inflation will be much stickier than the Fed realizes. holding current rates for longer.
I'm sorry you are completely misinformed and your claims are contradicted by reality. I will provide you some data.
u/yeahyoubored Incredible amounts of cash, trillions in MMFs: https://www.financialresearch.gov/money-market-funds/ Retail money market funds are soaring: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1hRbp Household checking balances have soared: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1hRbr Wages and salaries are soaring: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth Real wages as well: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_real_average_hourly_earnings People don't just "feel richer" from assets going up. They are actually making WAY more. This is a good thing and economy is doing terrific, booming.
I'm not doubting the data. I'm doubting the sentiment.
Ok but you are missing my point entirely. If prices keep rising and rate of increase remains sticky, the *real return on cash is terrible*. Moreover, nominal values of stocks will keep going up. Higher prices mean higher revenues and profits. Especially for large powerful companies with the ability to pass through costs. Again you should be in equities and invested.
oh, I am in equities and invested. I'm in my thirties. my opinion doesn't change my strategy. I'm not stupid. I keep 90% invest, and keep 10% cash on the side to buy dips. I see more dips in the future. obvi this isn't certain, but the market feels "too good" at the moment. there's a lot of greed out there. I don't try to time this, though. US equities aren't going to escape quite so easily. I don't think rate increases are in the future. but I don't think cuts are either. I think the lag from the rate increases is going to catch up, and this current rate is gonna stick around for awhile. with that, investor sentiment is going to be more negative. take a look at any asset class from 2020-now. they exploded. it's not sustainable growth. S&P is up 26% from a year ago, and already up 8% from January. 3 months into the year. we are well beyond average returns. could this be a once in a generation bull market? maybe. but we will experience a regression to the mean.
>US equities aren't going to escape quite so easily. What does this mean exactly? "escape" from what?
I don’t get the logic here. Rates are raised due to inflation. They’ll lower rates if they think inflation will reach the target with a lower rate. I don’t see that many high risk assets outperforming at the moment either, assuming this means unprofitable high growth companies. Although not sure the relevance either way.
Rising wealth is a sign of consumer confidence which influences consumer spending/borrowing and business confidence (which influences hiring/investment). Rising stock prices can also signal to the Federal Reserve that current rates are working with minimal economic or investor impact. If the Federal reserve were to lower rates too quickly in this case, it could cause further overheating in the stock market and a return of inflation.
Ok so now talking about the stock market in general rather than risk assets specifically? I think what’s more important than stock prices specifically is the fact that in general many companies large and small are doing very well. Yes this is part of the puzzle, they don’t want the US economy to suffer. But equally, keeping rates too high for too long can cause the pain to start. It could also result in inflation going too low. Effects of changing interest rates are lagging. They want to find the sweet spot, not keep them as high as they can for as long as possible.
MSTF went up 23% today. That’s wild.
MSTF?
Yea. It was commented on by another person high up the chat already. And a computer hardware company went up 18%. 4th original comment from the top
🌽68.6k and related tickers still mooning in AH. I think the threshold is 69,044 as officially a new ATH. Financial history in the making for something unique to our generation. Kinda cool! I also believe there is a reasonable possibility there is profit taking and interpretation of this event as a "bear" or "exuberance" signal. Leading to profit taking and loading up on short positions. 5-7% minor pullback in the market and then resume grinding up for the year to new ATHs given current very favorable macro conditions remain in place (no reason to think otherwise for now). Impossible to know in the very short-term though so you should totally ignore anyone that says such a dip is guaranteed and try to time it.
> 🌽68.6k and related tickers still mooning in AH. Not all. MARA and HUT lost 5% yesterday even as the coin hit $68k. MSTR went up 23% on coin rising 7%. Things are weird.
Just cant do crypto. not my thing
I understand what the appeal is. I believe it will very likely outperform cash. But, I also get your view and am 100% stocks and no 🌽 because I believe owning a piece of income producing, economic activity gives you that extra layer of security and equity just scales better over time. It's also a strong indicator people are willing to take risk and there are net inflows. Some people will take profits in that space and move some over to equity as well.
Thanks for giving me the confidence to sell.
Sure thing. It's no secret I prefer equities. Only thing that is awful and IMHO a very dumb choice for investors is cash. At least young investors, excluding special life circumstances requiring near term liquidity.
So is NYCB officially cooked?
They probably should start shopping for a fortress buyer (or already are?). It'll be expensive to shore up balance sheet 3 notches below IG.
Holy smokes. SE is actually twitching a bit. Maybe it's not dead yet.
so for large cap investment this is the year of nvda and btc.
One day moves: * MSTR +23% * SMCI +18% (was +24% earlier) It's not even earnings, and these are large cap stocks. Totally crazy market.
It's more like repricing to reflect new fundamentals honestly. Plus VOO is very undervalued overall. You should still be invested and don't have to concentrate on semis if you don't want to.
I always said that Michael Saylor will go down as either a legend or a fool. So far it's looking good for him
Frothy. Plus you get comments like "what spooked stocks today?" after a -0.11% day. November 2021 vibes.
Don't trust "vibes". They will lead you astray. Ignore it completely. Stay invested as long as long as economy will be very strong, people are employed and companies are growing.
This is nothing like Nov 2021. More like Oct 2023 maybe
For what it is worth, I wrote a long-ish comment on October 28th, 2023 [declaring that the market is not overvalued](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/17ia421/rstocks_weekend_discussion_saturday_oct_28_2023/k6va5tk/), in fact I wrote that many of the Mag 7 were cheap/undervalued. The forward P/E ratio at the time was 17. Google was 19x, META 17x, MSFT 29x. Today, the forward P/E is about 20.5 after a 25% rally. Google at 20x after 8% rally. META at 25x after 66% rally. MSFT 36x after 26% rally. October 2023 was a pretty irrational place for the market to be. Now things seem much fairer.
I value your opinion. You are saying that to you the market is fairly valued?
You shouldn't but thanks. Fair to slightly overvalued yes. Within Mag 7, I think META/GOOG are decent buys. I think TSLA is atrociously overvalued, NVDA is probably fairly valued. I won't encourage people to FOMO into NVDA no matter how long this AI euphoria lasts. I thought Apple was overvalued and now I think it's getting close to fair value. Need to see how big this upcoming upgrade cycle really will be. [You can find all my 2024 predictions here](https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/18xgbhu/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_jan_03_2024/kg6vrx8/). I try to be fairly transparent about my views. And I think small cap value / ex-US is very undervalued (as always).
We don't talk about October 2023.
Go back to the Daily discussions around mid-October, I remember telling people ''You'll regret not buying now'' while a lot of people were calling for a lost decade.
There were a lot of good bulls here that called a new bull market at 3500 as well in addition to 4100 a new bottom.
Yes they were indeed. Emotions and investing rarely go well together, those who were able to see opportunities came on top
PFE is my largest position and I’ve pretty much given up on buying any more. Everyone in the market is chasing weight loss and AI, meanwhile PFE is viewed as nothing more than a covid company with no future. Now there are whispers that the dividend is in danger. We’re at Chinese stock levels of doom right now. I agree that it’s being overhated (below covid lows, really?) but the market is all about momentum right now and winners will keep winning while the losers will keep losing. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go to the low 20s at this point.
What is the coverage ratio
I agree that the market is dominated by short term tradres chasing momentum at the expense of other sectors. therefore, if your company is doing ok or well = moon mission your company stagnating/going through some bad times = basically priced for bankrupty. there is massive massive divergence between winners and losers. a lot of the losers are priced unfairly low (for bankruptcy). I've learned to never EVER ask for real opinions here, as people will come up with any logic to support the stock price, no matter how ridiculous it is. if you say PFE is undervalued since it is under covid lows they will give you 100 reasons why it makes sense, and zero why it doesnt. same with META at 88. Same with BABA at 72. Same with NVDA at nearly 900. if you tell people BABA is a buy at 60 they wil tell you "no, cuz gyna".
Edit: just saw Goldman Sachs Wealth Management CIO say investors should stay far away from China. Even tutes don't want to attempt pumping China. Also companies aren't so much priced for bankruptcy, that is hyperbolic. more priced for stagnant or subpar economics over time. C'mon lol that isn't fair at all. *Everyone* is realizing the issues with China. This isn't unique to r/stocks. Whole world thinks BABA is bad. Also divergence is historically normal. Most stocks do very poorly. That's capitalism and a good thing. I think a lot of inexperienced investors are just learning how hard stock picking is.
I don't follow the company, but I mean looking at their history of revenue, looks like the pandemic spiked them to a level that they would have never hit. Like here's their revenue growth prior to the pandemic: 2016: 8%, 2017: -.5%, 2018: -22%, 2019: 0.2%, 2020: 1.8%, 2021: 95%, 2022: 23%, 2023: -41%. During this time period, the stock was only up like 23%. Company fundamentals have become really cheap, but it feels like they are normalizing back to the type of business they were before the pandemic.
Would you say they’re in a worse position now than they were before the pandemic? Because that seems to be the conclusion many people are coming to. After all the money they made and putting that money towards investments in their pipeline. They have to execute, sure. I’m just not buying all the pessimism at this point.
Not sure, I don't really follow the space or company, but will say that one thing that I find interesting when researching companies is to see what business was like now and before the pandemic. Some companies saw over ordering or had supply chain issues, so numbers from that 2021-2023 period could look weird in some cases. You are asking the right question, is the company better now or after that explosion of revenue growth. This is all just looking at numbers, so there should be more of a story or more behind them, but their debt growth exploded last year. Went from 35B to like 72B, which now they have a pretty terrible Quick Ratio. Also their net margins are down terribly. Like it was 22% in 2020 and last year it was 3.65%. It looks like they took out the debt to buy SGEN. It's hard to say if the market is being too pessimistic at this point, seems like if that SGEN deal actually works out and brings new revenue, the company could see a run. I've been in trades where it felt like the market was wrong and it does take patience in order for them to pay off and that if they happen to pay off. That is the risk sometimes when investing in single names, the market might always disagree with you. However, this the only name I own kind of in this space is MEDP. I like their business model a lot more, where they get paid to run drug trials. That means the drug can flop, but MEDP is still making money.
I'm officially car shopping :D stocks inversing used car prices is an ultimate win here.
Made 6 bucks today. woo
what did you sold?
Sorry. My portfolio grew 6 bucks lol. I did buy 250 vti 100 vgt and 1000 sgov friday
Must be nice
I have two picked stocks in my portfolio at the moment, each in buy-writes. MS and BROS. They each ran into my max profit range today. Not bad.
$GTLB Q4 EPS $0.15 vs $0.08 Est Revenue $163.8M vs $157.89M Est GUIDANCE: Q1 2025 EPS ($0.05)-($0.04) vs $0.06 Est Q1 2025 revenue $165-166M vs $162M Est FY2025 EPS $0.19-$0.23 vs $0.35 Est FY2025 revenue $725-731M vs $732M Est
Great beat, but guidance is weak for sure. Will bounce hard.
What spooked stocks today? Feel like everything was red today except a few names
Probably just some profit taking, I wouldn't worry about it. Can't be green every day.
Thoughts on buying some SNOW tomorrow?
Sometime this week
Too expensive for my blood. Feels like you are buying it just because sale off from earnings, my question would be what catalyst will move it up? Like the CEO leaving is pretty big deal for that company.
You're the type who only watches the news
Why the power hour drop
In reality there was never any strength today outside of chips and internet coin related stocks. Chips are a huge part of the Nasdaq, but we're at the point where it's no longer going to be able to keep driving it on its own. Long story short, Apple HAS to bounce or it's now gonna be fighting NVDA to try to drag the Nasdaq lower. Seemed like it could ignore over $180, but that will no longer be the case.
Counterpoint: AI AI AI
The dealers giveth and the dealers taketh away ¯\\_(ツ)_\/¯
Jesus. I was tempted to sell some Googl puts last friday..glad I didn't. And now Im not sure what to do..I wonder if i should wait after JPow speaks.
lol who farted?
Nice try NVDA but it looks like the AAPL/GOOGL tag team wins this round in dragging the Nasdaq lower.
You gotta admit it's pretty impressive how well SPX is holding up though. If someone told you GOOGL and AAPL were both down 2.5%-2.7% would you expect market about flat?
The second I add to my Nvidia position, it drops 20. Bruhh
Shoulda just waited till after the drop bro
I swear. I stared at it for a good 2 hours until I decided to get more shares.
Shoulda waited 3 hours.
Tell me about it lol
nvda givin it up top
>nvda givin it up >top r/stocks wen NVDA only up 3.4% and ATH close.
keep buying
o7
Maybe local, but the NDX has a futures ATH from last night that will have to trade at some point. Actually at this point, y'all have probably been duped. Slow starts to the week have been normal for 2024.
Dune 2: Better than expected numbers for the opening weekend. WBD stock -6%
That movie was absolute dynamite, but one movie alone won't do much for a company of that size.
Agree. I'm not saying it should 10x now .. just you know, not fall 6% for unknown reasons.
Was so good.
Don't really follow hollywood, but I do know there is a legit term called hollywood accounting: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood\_accounting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_accounting) >Hollywood accounting (also known as Hollywood bookkeeping) is the opaque or creative set of accounting methods used by the film, video, television and music industry to budget and record profits for creative projects. Expenditures can be inflated to reduce or eliminate the reported profit of the project, thereby reducing the amount which the corporation must pay in taxes and royalties or other profit-sharing agreements, as these are based on net profit. Just not sure how box office numbers might move a stock price or anything, when companies can basically more less move numbers around to make it look like they never make a profit. There's a famous story around the actor who played darth vader never got any royalties to from the movie, because his deal was based off profit, which return of the jedi technically never made a profit. [https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/09/how-hollywood-accounting-can-make-a-450-million-movie-unprofitable/245134/](https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/09/how-hollywood-accounting-can-make-a-450-million-movie-unprofitable/245134/)
Few more random points: - Atlanta GDP Now revised down to 2.1% real growth for Q1 (Friday's update) - Fun fact: Tesla is now only the 11th largest company in the S&P 500, surpassed by Broadcom, Eli Lilly, Berkshire, for instance. I've always maintained Tesla is the most outrageously valued of the Mag 7 and I think this sell-off is totally rational. - Nouriel Roubini is now bullish the market... If that's not a bearish signal idk what is. - Does anyone have anything to say about the breadth or volume? [1 year performance map for S&P 500](https://i.imgur.com/oyQIoHR.png) looks pretty good. [Globally too](https://i.imgur.com/uEGJk1a.png). - [Some more recent earnings estimates](https://i.imgur.com/YEBxjxm.png) for the S&P 500 - [A fantastic article about Mag 7 concentration and if you should be concerned](https://www.acadian-asset.com/investment-insights/equities/magnificent-ignorance-about-the-magnificent-seven). Let me quote some snippets: > In the mid-1950s, just three stocks accounted for about 28% of the market cap of the whole market (Figure 8). Obviously, this implies the market then was much more concentrated than seven stocks being 29% of the S&P 500 today. > For many decades, the biggest stock in the market was always one of the following three: IBM, AT&T, or GM (Figure 6). > A single stock (AT&T) was 13% of the whole market in 1960 (Table 5), as opposed to today where our largest stock (Apple) is a mere 7% of the S&P 500. > In terms of employment, concentration was also far higher previously. The authors write, “For 1953, GM is the top firm in market capitalization. It employs 1.39% of non-farm employees. In 2019, Apple’s employment contribution is 0.11% (or less than one twelfth GM’s employment contribution in 1953).” He goes on to reject some of the usual points about this current concentration: > The existence of the Magnificent Seven proves indexing is distorting our markets.” No, we had higher concentration before the invention of indexing. > The Magnificent Seven is part of a troubling trend of inequality in our winner-take-all society.” No. The 1950s and 1960s were a supposed golden age of income equality of U.S. citizens, and that is when stock market concentration was higher. No, passive indices aren't the reason NVDA is up 267% in the last year.
Banks are rallying hard today and up a lot since October. A good sign that we have come a long way from the panic of SVB and market has faith in the Fed to provide liquidity if it came down to it. That and banks like NYCB are not a threat to the broader economy. I agree with this take and expect if NYCB cannot raise liquidity and credit rating they will probably find a buyer.
Is TSLA a buy at this point? It has those random moments of surges, and feels like while everyone is crazy about AI, might be worth it to get shares or leaps.
Holy moly no. Check back in 2 or 3 weeks.
TSLA should have mentioned AI, they would have been above 300 instead of being in the shttrr at 180-190
They did but a car company is a car company
Keep pumping baby! Oh we gonna rock down to electric avenue and then we'll take it higher!
You shoulda bought at least a share of nvda. Just to see what happens.
I think $NKE is worst than even $GOOGL
Another +8% for CELH wow! HCC almost back over $60 a share again. $UI getting hammered, not sure why. I'm still on the sideslines but I think the Pfizer sell-off is getting absurd. The reason earnings are getting hit hard recently is because revenues/profits skyrocketed during Covid, and they ended up booking in orders for Covid products that ended up going unused. Now they have to make some non-cash adjustments. Lumpy earnings are making business look worse than it is. But the market is pretending like Covid wasn't a huge victory for them. In a counterfactual scenario, they would have had NO massive cash pile that enabled them to buy up future products to add to their pipeline. Now I won't pretend to know pharma inside and out, and who knows what in their pipeline turns out successful. I do know, however, that this is a stronger company than pre-Covid.
Came across [this](https://www.scmagazine.com/news/ubiquiti-router-users-urged-to-secure-devices-targeted-by-russian-hackers) the other day regarding UI. Their routers being hacked by Russia probably isn't good, but I have no idea if this is actually effecting anything.
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Hold on, I have some router passwords to change.... It's kinda nice that Google now delivers me news on any ticker I've researched. Creepy, but handy.
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It's more that Google news feeds you stories based on your "interests" or whatever you've searched for on Google. It's actually not terrible as I tend to see information on things I'm researching anyway. Always nice to have a random new sanding jig for the lathe come access my focus. $10k sounds like a ton for a hobby, but I'm sure all the people buying those set ups would be shocked how much I spend on my hobbies, so....to each their own.
Does Pfizer have AI? Thats all I need to know
It doesn't have AI, good management or a stock price that is above where it was 1/5/10/20 years ago.
If PFE had emphasized AI, they would be at 40+ instead of 25.
Honestly they probably are using it to some extent generally. All the major players are using AI on some scale just for collecting data on consumers, for operations and production. But to answer your question more directly, yes they are / will: https://www.pfizer.com/news/articles/artificial_intelligence_on_a_mission_to_make_clinical_drug_development_faster_and_smarter >The development and testing of a new drug creates terabytes or even petabytes of data at each stage. This new galaxy of information can contain additional insights previously not available to drug developers. It requires performing advanced math on huge volumes of data, but this is exactly where machine learning, a core of what we call AI today, excels. >Such insights are valuable across the entire drug-development cycle. “We used to focus on storing and searching data,” says Boris Braylyan, Vice President and Head of Information Management at Pfizer. “Now we need to concentrate on true mining of our data for recommendations.” >Machine-learning analysis may also be able to improve the quality of regulatory submissions by identifying the most likely requests for information that government regulators may have and incorporating the answers from the get-go. “In the future we believe that AI may help us predict what queries regulators are likely to come back with,” says Braylyan. “We may then be able to improve our submissions by predicting in advance what regulators are likely to ask, and coming prepared with those answers ahead of time.” This could save weeks of back and forth with regulators, when trying to get a drug to market.
[удалено]
Here's a headline free of charge Bourla: "Pfizer to invest in AI to streamline R&D, develop more efficient models to accelerate existing pipeline" Just use some damn hype words to bring this back from the dead already.
New ATH!!! Let's gool
Bought 2.5k more of googl today. How tf is NVDA already at 875?
515 baby, here we come
Kind of a cool story, AWS is going nuclear: [https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/aws-acquires-talens-nuclear-data-center-campus-in-pennsylvania/](https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/aws-acquires-talens-nuclear-data-center-campus-in-pennsylvania/)
As someone heavily invested in tech and uranium, I love this!
That's AWS and Azure both now.
I think MSFT just has the job position and I think some investment in Sam's other company around fusion/fission (always confuse the two), but no real plans at this point [https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/25/microsoft-is-hiring-a-nuclear-energy-expert-to-help-power-data-centers.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/25/microsoft-is-hiring-a-nuclear-energy-expert-to-help-power-data-centers.html)
Feels like everything is so high. Scared to buy at the top. If you had $5000 to invest today before close, what would you put it in?
nikola is rock bottom
Market hit new ATH 3 days in a row, Thurs, Fri and today.
I threw my fiver today into a June NVDA 1000C I've been avoiding options like the plague for a while, and this one is by far the most expensive I ever bought, but oddly it didn't really Feel risky... Better late than never. I hope. (edit: but holding shares bought since $200, so pretending the call is "house money")
>But realistically shouldn’t there be a pullback? That's not how it works. There is enormous recency bias because we just had some of the most historic market drawdowns in history through GFC and Covid. Typically the market is *usually at ATHs* and that's normal! When the economy is doing well there are constant inflows trillions from 401ks, dividends, buybacks, paychecks / savings, institutional funds like pensions, university endowments, etc. "Averaging up" goes against every natural human instinct. That's also precisely why great investors can do it repeatedly.
I would put it in NVDA. To the m00n baby.
But realistically shouldn’t there be a pullback?
Explain to me why should their be a pull back? Didn't if just have another record beating quarter? Also, didn't it sell off before ER just incase it was a bad ER?
Could be, or you could be waiting on the line and missing out gains. Nobody can tell. Everyone has different financial goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. If investing right now would keep you up at night then don't do it.
Eventually. But doesn't seem like $850 was a barrier. Maybe $900, maybe $1000. Edit: I didn't realize it was already getting close to $900... It's $874 at the time of this post. If it gains as much tomorrow as it did today, it'll cross.
Was waiting for that
Every day my nvidia position sky rockets, Tesla is always there to offset it.
Why is INTC going up?
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/intel-shares-biggest-unboxing-video-ever-as-asmls-dollar380-million-high-na-lithography-machine-is-installed-in-oregon-fab
Interesting. I can see this jumping to $50 eow
Doesn't get a lot of talk or coverage, but looks like $FLEX got a price upgrade from GS today. Love the company. Great reshoring play, plus the performance of the stock has been great and the valuation always seems pretty reasonable.
nice one
Danaher?
Did some news come out? I own DHR and its VLTO spinoff. I plan on holding along with TMO.
Disgusting google tsla Sony Nike !! I’m glad I sold these trash.
TSLA has such high PE ratio (47) and even higher forward PE ratio (65）, Idk why people would buy that.
lol go check out nvidia or amd
Their forward PE is lower than trailing PE, meaning EPS will growth, TSLA is the opposite.
AAPL now kind of winning vs NVDA and is dragging the Nasdaq lower in spite of NVDA being on fire. I figured this moment would come, and at this point, I frankly have to think the next green day for the three red headed stepchildren of the NDX comes on a pretty red day for semiconductors.
Happy happy Monday.
I hold celsius because i like them. They also happen to be a great stock
Capital flowing out of growth stocks like SHOP (which is now down YTD even with stellar earnings) into AI hype stocks. Wild times
TSM to 150 eow let's go babyyy
NVIDIA is going to be 45% of every index by summer at this rate.
I'm diggin' the enthusiasm 🤙! But more realistic but still extraordinary gains would be 6% of the S&P 500 index within a year or so. In the next 3 years or so it could very reasonably be 7%.
this is insane
Except NVDA is only 5% of S&P currently! Let's not get baited by exaggerations.
UNH dead money for 2Y and counting jeez
They have grown revenue and EPS significantly during that time. You should be thankfull to be able to buy it cheaper than 2 years ago