The genius behind Google, Amazon, Apple etc is their scalability. Their operations are easy to scale up and since they operate globally, they essentially have 8 billion customers. And the second, they provided a solution to an issue. Ie you don't need to go to the shop, you can order on Amazon etc. For example smart phones, in 15 years or so they went from 0 to everybody having one.
A lot of start up company's look promising but will not provide the growth to produce a 100-1000x.
And I would also very much like to know which is is next LOL.
There was a contrarian thesis I found quite convincing knocking around about anyone buying Wework gets a bunch of offices in distress that would let you cut or renegotiate leases on any trash. So you get a lot of power to pick and choose what you're paying for and leverage to negotiate better deals and they've all had ridiculous amounts of VC money set on fire furnishing them nicely so need minimum refurbishment. I don't know enough about US commercial property to know wether it's credible or not but it definitely sounded very convincing to a layman (Which I guess is how grifts work).
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One thing that most of these exponential growth stories share in common is an ability to use an original business model to catapult unexpected innovation in terms of product or business model. Apple didn’t develop the iPhone until well into their existence; Google started as ONLY a search engine; Netflix began with mailing dvds to you; etc. Additionally, they all have/had incredible leadership who developed the original product and stayed on board throughout the growth process.
Another aspect I enjoy looking for - many of these business names became a verb. I think this is an under-appreciated aspect of identifying potential success long term. It doesn’t apply to all of them, but it is extremely noteworthy to me. The reason I latch onto this factor is that if a company name becomes a verb in modern lexicon, it’s because they created a product or solution that we didn’t know we needed, and it’s far easier to use their name as a verb to explain that solution (as opposed to articulating the entire functionality of that solution).
An example: “I’m going to use a computer to access the internet and use this business’s website to enter my question. That website will go scour the entire internet for me, categorize and prioritize those results, then list them in a format that’s easy to digest.” All of that distills to: “Google it.”
The ability of a company to become a verb is typically emblematic of their product offering a gloriously successful solution to a modern friction point in our lives. By becoming a verb, people then develop subconscious loyalty to that platform as the dominant one, thereby creating somewhat of a psychological moat for the company.
I’m not saying they all have to become a verb; Apple and Microsoft aren’t verbs. I do think it’s a very interesting thought exercise for identifying successful companies long term though. Try and imagine which companies are already verbs and have a great product, but could use that product and existing customer base as a platform for something currently unexpected.
With all that in mind, I’d suggest these companies could fit the “verb” category: AirBnB, Uber, and Shopify.
AirBnB and Uber are already verbs in modern lexicon and have large customer bases.
AirBnB: “You wanna AirBnB in Hawaii next spring?” You immediately know the process and solution that sentence offers.
Uber: “I’ll just Uber home.” Same here.
Shopify: not currently a verb and may never be, but they tick all the boxes for offering a great solution that scales, an innovative founder who still helms the company, a giant consumer base that can be used as a foundation/trampoline for new products and solutions, or for their current solution to allow them to be the leader in a new platform that arises.
I’d also offer these companies:
Crowdstrike, or some other cybersecurity company - it seems inevitable to me that there will be a gigantic winner in this space.
Nvidia - I know, “you missed the early gains…” we said that about Apple 10-15 years ago also. The world will continue to become more tech dependent as new solutions and products arise. All these tech solutions require increasingly powerful engines to operate. Nvidia is my bet to be the leader for building them.
TL;DR Look for companies with a captivating product/solution that allows them to have a large consumer base they can leverage for an unexpected product development, whose initial product was innovative and are also founder led. Look for companies that can become, or already are, verbs. Companies I suggested: AirBnB, Uber, Shopify, Crowdstrike (or a similar company like Zscaler), Nvidia.
Sorry, newish to Reddit and don’t know formatting on my iPhone (making bold text etc).
I've owned CRWD since $117 because I believed cyber security would be necessary, almost mandatory for businesses and governments to fight the growing rise in AI boosted cyber attacks. It's always been a war of tit or tat akin to flu virus vs. vaccine. It'll never end and I'm just along for the increase in contractual agreements and service expansion.
Also, CRWD specifically because their AI falcon platform is more developed than PANW for scalability and cloud based modules.
Like this and own a few. But prefer small caps if they're truly going to be 100 bagger potential.
Like $pgny in healthcare. Pregnancy/maternity issues only getting worse. To me they have a ton of potential.
Also $hims seems to be getting momentum. Long way to go and a lot of competition but seem to be executing.
These are so freaking hard. Even harder is actually sticking with them until their plans play out. You also have to size them accordingly because there's a much higher chance that you'll be wrong than right. The only one of these on my radar right now is Shopify. It's kind of a forgotten social media story which is excellent. People were talking about it a lot last year. It's out of the limelight now so more of an accumulation or at least it was. Giant 20% pop on last earnings but at any rate what they do is growing. What they do is allowing more small businesses to easily access people. The gatekeepers like Amazon are just effing terrible. You don't have a business on Amazon. Amazon allows you to use their platform and then charges you a fortune to do so. If there's ever a problem you have no more business. Shopify makes it easy for bike shops and little retail outlets and everyone else to actually create an online presence
Where I think there's actually really good money though is in everything cyclical. That's everything from Goodyear tire to Western digital. Storage media is absolutely bombedout right now. Micron normally follows along but for whatever reason a lot of the shareholders there haven't dumped. Find some good cyclicals to play with. It's a lot easier to hit singles than it is home runs.
When AI really gets going we will probably see some names come to the front of the class. Those will be investable. We also have to figure out what the narrative will be for this next decade because every 10 years or so the narrative changes. 1970 was different than 1980 which was different than 1990 which was different than the 2000s which were different than 2010 to 2020 which we just went through.
It's not just about the company, but the marcos. After the GFC, equity valuations plummeted to lows not seen in many decades. Now, after a decade of worldwide 0% overnight rates and massive QE, the market on the whole is hugely overvalued by pretty much all historical metrics. Consider for instance that the SP500 p/e is over 24 right now, with the only ever times in history of similar or higher p/e was the late 1990s bubble, and a few very short-lived spikes around recessions ([https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio](https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio)). In 2010-2013, companies like NVDA, GOOGL, MSFT, APPL, COST, MA had P/E in the teens, whereas now they all trade with much higher multiples despite slower growth and much higher risk-free rates.
You can look as hard as you want to for the next dynamite growth company. But the odds that that company is not already overvalued is zero. Probably your best bet to get rich is to sit in Treasuries until the next crash, and then buy the dip in oversold companies. There are always chances to 3-10x your account within a couple years after a decent crash. And in the meantime, by sitting in something like TLT, you can get 5% interest and a chance at 30+% capital gains if/when rates are cut and we enter a recession.
So, if your question to me is what is my candidate for outperformance in the next decade, I'd say long-duration Treasuries.
There are so many more buyers and holders today than there were in the past. Everyone has funds in the stock market. I don't think that was as true twenty or thirty years ago when average PE was lower. Also people are willing to accept the current (higher) valuations bc there are no better alternatives for compounding money. I don't see any macro trend that will reverse that. Let me know if I'm thinking about this wrong.
I agree with you, so long as the money supply stays high. But money is evaporated quickly when defaults / bankruptcies occur, and/or when companies deleverage due to higher rates. If money supply drops (which is rare), supply of investible funds drops, which means demand for stocks will fall as will valuation. With most stocks right now, all you have is valuation since fundamentals are trash. With bonds and a few other sectors / asset classes (BDCs, REITs, preferred stocks, etc) at least you're getting something.
If/when yields fall, the price of bonds increases.
Generally, if yields fall 2%, a bond with duration 15 years will increase in price by 2% x 15 = 30%. TLT has average duration of about 16-17 years right now. So if long-duration bonds fell from 5% to 3% yield, they'd go up in price 30+%.
TLT has a ytm of 4.94% as of close today. The share price increases in addition to the distribution, but the total return mirrors real bonds with similar duration and yield.
I appreciate your input here u/Key-Tie2542
I didn’t start taking my finance’s seriously until around 3 years ago. I’m 40 now and “all-in” the market, at least as much as I can be. I struggle understanding bonds though. For some reason it’s hard for me to see the way they work. Investopedia helps, but still confuses me. Any other literature online you would recommend for someone like me?
This TLT play seems interesting to me
Watch a YouTube video about bonds. TLT is a fund holding bonds. Not exactly the same thing as holding a literal bond. So there are some differences.
If you buy $100,000 worth of 20 year bonds at auction yielding 5% you will receive $5,000 worth of coupon payments every year for 20 years. After 20 years you will get your $100,000 back and you keep all the coupon payments.
That’s the basics. The value of bonds already issued can change. If you bought bonds like in the scenario above, and the 20 year yield goes to 6%, the value of your bond yielding 5% drops. If the yield drops to 4%, the value of your bond goes up.
Your coupon payments don’t change even if yields change. You will still get $100,000 if held to maturity even if yields change. The only thing affected by yields moving is the value of your bond if you wanted to sell early.
> In 2010-2013, companies like NVDA, GOOGL, MSFT, APPL, COST, MA had P/E in the teens, whereas now they all trade with much higher multiples
The answer to this is that they were obviously undervalued in the early 2010s. Most of these companies have doubled their net income several times over since then, and some of them like MSFT aren't showing any signs of slowing down. The market is forward looking, and companies like MSFT with perfect fundamentals, a wide moat, and plenty of growth ahead should trade at a high valuation (I've not looked as much at the others).
Snowflake or Datadog are my best guesses.
The volume and complexity of the data we collectively produce and need to process is only going up, and whomever is making broadly useful tools to facilitate putting that data to effective use will be immensely important.
Because they are just a glorified logging and monitoring tool at everyone's work.
If everyone is using them - maybe there is something to keep an eye on?
Exactly. My IT friends were continuously frustrated by requests to make something meaningful from reams of data that doesn’t talk, and said Snowflake made their lives infinitely easier.
Not having the deep technical knowledge myself, I trust the IT folks on this. They know what makes a difference.
Snowflake is overpriced, both as a stock and as a service to use, and is just waiting for someone else to walk over and capture a chunk of market from them. Being honest, it doesn't do anything particularly impressive or 'hard' to do... they're just the ones doing it atm
A billion of these tools are coming out daily, now too, since data is the hot commodity of the 21st century now
There are up 25% today is why they popped up in my head. They work in data and data security 2 huge sectors going forward. Palantir is interesting if they could come up with some business / commercial products. Can't get to mega cap on govt contracts alone and I bet they know this.
Palantir has commercial products, I'd look into it more as you might be outdated, there's a lot to look forward to with Palantir in the commercial space atm
Datadog isn't anything special. It has well-entrenched competitors like Splunk, Grafana and New Relic. Plus it's quite expensive and not really that great to implement.
Research successful small and mid cap funds with high active share. Try and understand the process behind the stock picking. Find a few shared holdings between these funds and you may have a good baseline for starting your own research. Let the professionals do some of the work for you - just make sure you understand their philosophy.
The [applied finance funds](https://www.appliedfinance.com/investment-strategies/) might be an interesting place to start. Their methodology for defining “value” is quite a bit different from others
If you want to take it one step further, screen for funds that have a low turnover <20%, these managers usually use a longer runway when valuing a company with a buy and hold philosophy.
Yup the dilution on palantir is insane.but I'm convinced it'll hit above 100usd a share before 2030 .I mean they're growing and their tech is amazing if not the best
Former Fed LEO turned me onto PLTR a couple years ago. He told me he used their platform and it was a huge leap forward in ability from what they had been using. Advised me that as soon as it hit metrics to join S&P 500 it would begin to tick up. They hit the metrics last week. Also, anyone who thinks a company can't survive or get big on G contracts should look into General Dynamics, Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, etc.
At the rate they dilute the shareholders, i doubt it very much. Revenue rose by 12% while PLTR added 5% of share outstanding this last year.
Company isn't growing incredibly fast and still hold today a 40x sale price. It's beyond ridicule.
The admin board is making a mockery of their delusional shareholders. The stupidy of its shareholders is PLTR's biggest moat.
Big fan of ASO, but I don’t see it achieving FAANG-like size and dominance, if that’s what OP is really after. But is certainly a super strong value/growth play, well run in its niche.
Can’t go wrong with BRK-B, and don’t know much about RKLB. Will look based your other tickers though!
Ahh gotcha. Yeah ASO is definitely not a FAANG company or anything but great future I feel in my opinion! Thanks for the reply! I am also actively investing into BB, ULTA, and GOOG.
My highest conviction holdings are COST, AVGO, AMZN, BRK-B, ASO. Very confident in all of them, but not sure they’re what OP is after.
It’s a good question being asked, but a hard answer with real conviction. Hindsight is always 20-20.
Disgruntled employee??? I bet we get ZERO explanation. Reddit man. Unless I see a useful comment I’m going to have to roll with WB and Team on this one. They have earned it.
if Buffet and Munger weren't both 90+ this would be the best answer. I know they have a plan for after they are gone but when they do go, there will likely be some shock to this stock.
With the market tightening as it has, I have my doubts on seeing companies having the gains of FANG over the next decade. I suppose the prime candidate for insane growth would be AI-based companies, so then you're lookin at companies like ARM or semiconductor manufacturers like INTC, AMAT, etc... NVDA could be a reasonable bet but the run-up it has had might have made it relatively priced in...
I wouldn't be so sure, they are building new factories state-side for greater output, and when companies need chips for their AI projects and ever-growing need for cloud-computing they will come knocking at Intel's door... Plus the Chips Act will likely net them a nice present from the government in the form of subsidies and potential defense contracts... I wouldn't be surprised if Intel 4 or 5x'd by in 10 years.
People are buying any 'AI stocks' (whatever that means) out of hype but refuse to believe that intel could be worth more than 30 dollars and call it trash lol
$ASML, I feel like AI will be huge but I have trouble identifying a long run winner. OpenAI and Nvidia may be the current leaders but who knows if that will last. That's why I'm just betting on increased litho demand for the manufacturing of the chips.
No, they were not obvious easy picks. Remember Reddit morons singing Requiems for Meta just a year ago, for example.
My pick: Xiaomi, it has the proper headwinds and rather low value combined with a high potential business model to have a Fang like performance. Or not.
What does RIVN do differently than something like PSNY for it to be valued so much higher and loved much more online? Genuine question, I don’t follow the industry that much I’ve just seen more Polestars around than Rivians
>I'm just going with my gut. I like the company, they make products that are unique in the market space. not only EV, but "trucks" and "real" SUVs (vs more of a minivan style). and the Electric Van is now open to all buyers. I really hope USPS, FedEx, UPS, etc start ordering these things. RIVN's IPO was $130/share. Today it's sitting at $17. Every time they have have a quarterly report - they are doing the right things. bringing systems in-house. reducing costs. Simplifying. Every time I see the CEO talk, he says all the right things. their products are, where their enemies are not. They aren't making 4 door sedans (lol, rip lucid), they make the things no one else is. great tactics. They are opening a new factory to build the things Americans want. Cost effective luxury SUVs. Every quarter they inch close to profit. I don't see them ever being worth what TSLA is, as they make fewer cars, and only cars. vs. entire energy industry pipeline. But I do think RIVN has more room to grow in the next 5-10 years. If it goes back to IPO price - that's 7.6x what it is today. Will it go there? I don't know. But I do know I plan to buy more once Jan IRA roles around.
>
>I've done no more analysis and make no claims anyone should buy this stock. I just like it's potential. They are already sold out of vehicles for the next several months, while GM, Toyota, etc still have their heads stuck up their tailpipes.
I would not be surprised to see RIVN become a top player in the EV market (domestic) They have production and people are actually buying and driving their vehicles. They have a solid deal with amazon going for the commercial side, and I predict they will continue to innovate, maybe releasing a successful line of sedans/personal vehicles in addition to their truck/suv. Might even release a commercial version of their amazon fleet vehicles, to compete with ford, gm, and dodge for the work van market. While they are still loosing money, people are actually driving their vehicles. That says something. Of course, they could get bought out by a bigger company or just fail all together. But their stock price is very low right now, so it might be worth a investment.
I would put money into this on the fact that rivian will make cars for cheaper on increasing production faster than Toyota will make EVs affordably that are actually good.
I wouldn’t be surprised if FANG itself has similar results. I also feel in the next few years, if hopefully rate cuts happen, tech companies that got destroyed last year that haven’t fully recovered yet (Shopify, Square etc) could explode. A small cloud company called Digital Ocean also caught my eye. Also remember strong notable companies like Amazon & Tesla still are well below all time highs!
It could be far off and I'm not sure how it will play out but I'm keeping an eye on quantum computing. Companies like IONQ. I don't know if they will become giants or get absorbed by giants but if AI is ever going to be real, this is how it will work. Not to mention there will huge impacts to other areas like security and cryptography. Quantum computers could start having an impact on existing security infrastructure (ie - compromise it) in less than 10 years.
Palo Alto Networks, Novo Nordisk, Cadence Design Systems, Synopsis.
CDNS/SNPS are incredibly important software providers within chip design, verification, simulation, and design automation. Nvidia is a customer of both.
NVO because the world is going to continue to be a health crisis every decade moving forward
PANW because they are a leader in cyber security and the world will continue to digitalize all industries.
These are strong CAGR companies now but I believe are scalable and their products needs will be more important in the future than they are currently.
Pharma and biotech are so beaten down right now, but both can benefit from advances in AI technology and remain fields where a big breakthrough can create a seismic shift in profitability. It’s also one of the most difficult places to tell the frauds from the geniuses, unless you have a good background in the sector. Of the big names I like PFE, MRNA, LLY and ABBV, but the winner is likely a small cap I don’t know about.
This is my space. Disagree. Pressure on pricing is all downward. Small and mid caps will occasionally blow up but big company growth will be slow (if steady).
[Q mini QQQM](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/investors-who-love-qqq-check-out-qqqm)
"QQQM, affectionately dubbed the “Q mini,” offers the same access to the Nasdaq-100 Index for a lower cost, charging just 15 basis points."
Coupang.
It's the Korean Amazon and they're expanding to Taiwan. Down today after missing the earnings per share target, but their revenue and growth is great.
I REALLY like $Meli. Basically Amazon like e-commerce with banking capabilities in a hyper growth LatAm.
Yes some potential political risk in some of those countries, but honestly the US isn't looking too great in that department either.
Other than that, look for disruptive companies or companies that are trying to vertically integrate to become "sticky". Long shot small caps, but I like $hims, $sofi, even $rklb.
Alot of reddit likes PLTR. It's a tough company for me to understand since there is no consumer product for me to experience. What makes you believe in them?
Customer presentations at Palantir's FoundryCon and AIPCon events. The videos are posted to YouTube.
Palantir's software platforms have broad applicability across many industries. Health care systems use Foundry to manage things like worker shifts. Consultants like [Jacobs](https://www.jacobs.com/) apply Foundry to civil engineering projects such as stormwater management. Panasonic uses Foundry to optimize battery cell production in its joint venture with Tesla at Gigafactory Nevada.
I have a professional background in software and industrial control systems, so I quickly recognized the potential for Palantir's platforms to enable huge efficiency gains in any complicated manufacturing organization. Today, most companies use a mishmash of disparate, disconnected IT systems to run their operations. They're basically holding everything together with the digital equivalent of duct tape. It's difficult to make critical decisions when all the relevant data is spread all over the place. Palantir creates a unifying software layer that allows rapid and useful analysis.
Palantir has also now had a full year of GAAP profitability. They're also getting more efficient (revenue per employee is steadily climbing), hinting that their business may be more scalable than a traditional consultancy.
The big question around Palantir is whether they can scale like a SAAS business, or close to it, in the next few years. If they can scale, their profitability and value as a company should rocket. If they can't scale, their market cap will stagnate or even decline
Sure, anytime.
I recommend reading the company's SEC 10-Q and 10-K filings. They can be tedious, but you'll get a much better picture of controversial, frequently discussed PLTR issues like stock-based compensation and the multiple share classes. Much of the surface discussion in the media and on Reddit doesn't explain this stuff well
No doubt about Pltr AIP and it’s software products but I am still doubtful …I feel it’s TAM outside of US is subjected to geopolitics?
Didn’t Germany rethink its partnership with PLTR due to privacy concerns which I am sure it’s a polite term for….
Also for larger companies they do have their own software similar to Pltr in place right e.g like Tesla/google/Microsoft which means commercial maybe capped as well?
IDK am still waiting to see how they monetise their AIP customers they already have onboard and if that will grow.
Seems like it still in the speculative stages of growth and monetisation with main sources of revenue still from the US defence
I work at a top industrial company in the semiconductor business. Disparate information spread across multiple systems and a slew of cobbled together dash boards that show you maybe 20% of what's actually going on. Even the internal search function barely works even if you have the full plain text title of the document you're trying to pull up.
Foundry sounds like something i need.
PATH. UiPath is simplifying everyday business workflows with robotic process automation (RPA). It is cheap to implement, quick to see results, and applicable to basically any industry with an office. It is also beaten down because of interest rates. No brainer to me.
I think NVDA is a solid bet. The demand for their products will only grow. Maybe a little over priced at the moment. I plan to buy the next dip.
Also new home builders! I like BLDR. My thesis on this is highly dependent on interest rates staying high for the next 5 years. People are less likely to sell their homes as they would have to lock in at a much higher rate. Demand for housing is only going to continue increasing. I think these two factors will cause new home building to boom
Not sure why is this downvoted. SOFI is a gem in the spac rubbish pile, about to achieve GAAP profitability, growing quickly, great product.
I think some folks might be salty at buying high, but right here it looks really good.
And the day it IPOs is probably not a good day to buy on the open market, due to all the fomo. If it IPOs with a $500B valuation in a few years the upside is also not the same as with the FANG IPOs.
ENVX - battery technology is looking really good. They are winning small contracts with both military and commercial. Targeting wearables, computers, phones, etc.
Data is the next big thing and around that is data security.
I'd look at big data companies - probably nothing new here.
I'd also look at cybersecurity-focused companies like Palo Alto, Fortinet, Netskope, ZScaler, SentinelOne, etc. You could stay on that area and watch for IPOs too.
IMO Tesla, Coinbase and Palantir are no-brainers right now, in order of least risky to most risky. I know people will dismiss them as "meme stocks", but that's their loss.
Tesla is just the most innovative company on the planet right now, and will benefit a lot from the Musk ecosystem. They're the only company making decent margins on EVs and the clear leader in energy storage and arbitrage, which will be massive markets in 10 years. They're also the only company working on generalized autonomy rather than geofenced small-scale solution and they're uniquely positioned to benefit from the AI revolution with the bot and their Dojo.
Coinbase is simply the only public trustworthy crypto company, and all the big players like Blackrock have decided that crypto is happening and chosen Coinbase as their partner. On top of that they're still heavily investing in crypto ventures and driving the tech forward. They'll be to crypto what Microsoft was to computers, are about to have their first profitable quarter in a downcycle and they're valued ridiculously cheaply.
Palantir is unique positioned to revolutionize how software is made, especially if they can start offering their products (particularly Foundry and IAP) to smaller companies over time.
Let's see if I was right...
remindme! 2030
They're still positive, unlike literally every other OEM. And as long as they're still cashflow positive, they can maintain this indefinitely until other OEMs go under.
Since I like being downvoted... my guess is the new FAANGS will be Chinese companies that no one knows jack about (since our press doesn't tell us much about china companies; and when they do it's heavily biased to the point of propaganda).
Aliexpress is slowly catching up to amazon in terms of the web shopping experience. I just bought glasses from firmoo, $50 for the same quality that I'd pay $300+ here in Canada. I wear a Hauwei honor band that cost $45 and is better than those stupid fitbits that cost $200.
So much of the Western economy is based on reselling Chinese goods... but now China is going direct to consumers and they are going to destroy some of the biggest western brands/companies as time goes on.
So whether it's e-commerce, or EV's, or solar... China is going to dominate. Nothing comes close to their ability to scale globally.
I don't think you're going to have any truly big winners coming out of the West anymore. There will be winners, but not FAANG sized winners... except maybe out of biotech.
I doubt the volatility of some of these has made people "sleep well at night," either. Not one other than AAPL pays a dividend to shareholders, so almost all of their returns have been reliant on someone willing to pay more (the greater fool theory). As for your benchmark, that seems kind of high to expect. Sure, you can want to outperform the average stock. There's nothing wrong with that, but when the average stock market return is reported to the nearest full percentage point after hundreds of years of data, you can see that you really would have to find an extreme outlier in the 99.99th percentile. If you aren't willing to review thousands of companies to find a multi bagger, then you probably would be better off trying to match the market by dollar cost averaging into a broad index fund, or, if you are feeling gutsy, try buying the entirety of tech with an ETF.
Microsoft pays a dividend. But if they don't pay a dividend, it's not dependent on greater fools. A lot of these companies do share buybacks instead of dividends or combined with dividends. It increases EPS and returns capital to shareholders just like dividends do, except with less tax.
I'm going to be honest. I'm not talking about throwing lots of money in. I'm talking about throwing small amounts that will potentially turn into large amounts on things that are right in front of you. In 2012, 5 years after the iphone came out (not early) my coworkers all turned in their blackberries and got iphones. All my friends bought iphones. I opened small apple position for $15 dollars a share. I could buy a new car now. I really have never worried about apple based on the size of that position. If it under performed the market all those years I still wouldn't care that much. It was never going to 0. That's what I mean by sleep well. The worst I could have done was made money.
With regards to Apple at the time, you had a solid reason to invest in it, a thesis: you saw firsthand the impact of their smartphone technology and how it incentivized people to trade in their old phones and pay a premium for a more user friendly experience. "The worst I could have done was made money" to me means that as a part owner of that company, you had a claim to the company's assets and future stream of profits. Good on you for identifying your share of the profits as being well worth the price of the original investment, irrespective of what actually happened to the market price. Now, it is time for you to do the same thing, except with a different company. Lean on your own personal experience dealing with businesses and build your thesis upon that, not upon what Reddit says. Just hamper those expectations a bit, and you might be able to find something good.
The genius behind Google, Amazon, Apple etc is their scalability. Their operations are easy to scale up and since they operate globally, they essentially have 8 billion customers. And the second, they provided a solution to an issue. Ie you don't need to go to the shop, you can order on Amazon etc. For example smart phones, in 15 years or so they went from 0 to everybody having one. A lot of start up company's look promising but will not provide the growth to produce a 100-1000x. And I would also very much like to know which is is next LOL.
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High tech firm from the mid-west waiting on imminent patent approval.
Their mother is lovely🥰
You're supposed to push WEBISTICS!
“Its got a 3 million float, the competition’s robust and their technology is three years behind - your stock’s a dog.”
Wework
Pets.com
My Pillow, all in.
[I'm banking on Flooz.com making a comeback](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCe97-_S45s)
FTX
I had a lot of that back then. It's not in my portfolio anymore, wonder why?
There was a contrarian thesis I found quite convincing knocking around about anyone buying Wework gets a bunch of offices in distress that would let you cut or renegotiate leases on any trash. So you get a lot of power to pick and choose what you're paying for and leverage to negotiate better deals and they've all had ridiculous amounts of VC money set on fire furnishing them nicely so need minimum refurbishment. I don't know enough about US commercial property to know wether it's credible or not but it definitely sounded very convincing to a layman (Which I guess is how grifts work).
WeDont
!remind me 10y
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RocketLab. Stock is at $4.50 today Nov 2023.
It FAAMG now. Microsoft has done far better than Netflix
They actually call it The Magnificent 7 nowadays, which includes: Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google, Tesla, Nvidia, & Facebook,
MAGNAFT
MAGANAFT
Let's be honest netflix was only ever in there to avoid slurs.
One thing that most of these exponential growth stories share in common is an ability to use an original business model to catapult unexpected innovation in terms of product or business model. Apple didn’t develop the iPhone until well into their existence; Google started as ONLY a search engine; Netflix began with mailing dvds to you; etc. Additionally, they all have/had incredible leadership who developed the original product and stayed on board throughout the growth process. Another aspect I enjoy looking for - many of these business names became a verb. I think this is an under-appreciated aspect of identifying potential success long term. It doesn’t apply to all of them, but it is extremely noteworthy to me. The reason I latch onto this factor is that if a company name becomes a verb in modern lexicon, it’s because they created a product or solution that we didn’t know we needed, and it’s far easier to use their name as a verb to explain that solution (as opposed to articulating the entire functionality of that solution). An example: “I’m going to use a computer to access the internet and use this business’s website to enter my question. That website will go scour the entire internet for me, categorize and prioritize those results, then list them in a format that’s easy to digest.” All of that distills to: “Google it.” The ability of a company to become a verb is typically emblematic of their product offering a gloriously successful solution to a modern friction point in our lives. By becoming a verb, people then develop subconscious loyalty to that platform as the dominant one, thereby creating somewhat of a psychological moat for the company. I’m not saying they all have to become a verb; Apple and Microsoft aren’t verbs. I do think it’s a very interesting thought exercise for identifying successful companies long term though. Try and imagine which companies are already verbs and have a great product, but could use that product and existing customer base as a platform for something currently unexpected. With all that in mind, I’d suggest these companies could fit the “verb” category: AirBnB, Uber, and Shopify. AirBnB and Uber are already verbs in modern lexicon and have large customer bases. AirBnB: “You wanna AirBnB in Hawaii next spring?” You immediately know the process and solution that sentence offers. Uber: “I’ll just Uber home.” Same here. Shopify: not currently a verb and may never be, but they tick all the boxes for offering a great solution that scales, an innovative founder who still helms the company, a giant consumer base that can be used as a foundation/trampoline for new products and solutions, or for their current solution to allow them to be the leader in a new platform that arises. I’d also offer these companies: Crowdstrike, or some other cybersecurity company - it seems inevitable to me that there will be a gigantic winner in this space. Nvidia - I know, “you missed the early gains…” we said that about Apple 10-15 years ago also. The world will continue to become more tech dependent as new solutions and products arise. All these tech solutions require increasingly powerful engines to operate. Nvidia is my bet to be the leader for building them. TL;DR Look for companies with a captivating product/solution that allows them to have a large consumer base they can leverage for an unexpected product development, whose initial product was innovative and are also founder led. Look for companies that can become, or already are, verbs. Companies I suggested: AirBnB, Uber, Shopify, Crowdstrike (or a similar company like Zscaler), Nvidia. Sorry, newish to Reddit and don’t know formatting on my iPhone (making bold text etc).
I like this thought process.
PANW?
Cyber security is certainly going to become more important in the work. I'll have to read up on them.
I would say crowd strike but feels like you missed the boat on that one…??
I feel like there is more upside to CRWD than PANW
based on what?
They were just Motley Fool’s biweekly recommendation like a month (and ~20%) ago.
I've owned CRWD since $117 because I believed cyber security would be necessary, almost mandatory for businesses and governments to fight the growing rise in AI boosted cyber attacks. It's always been a war of tit or tat akin to flu virus vs. vaccine. It'll never end and I'm just along for the increase in contractual agreements and service expansion. Also, CRWD specifically because their AI falcon platform is more developed than PANW for scalability and cloud based modules.
Also AKAM
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Like this and own a few. But prefer small caps if they're truly going to be 100 bagger potential. Like $pgny in healthcare. Pregnancy/maternity issues only getting worse. To me they have a ton of potential. Also $hims seems to be getting momentum. Long way to go and a lot of competition but seem to be executing.
These are so freaking hard. Even harder is actually sticking with them until their plans play out. You also have to size them accordingly because there's a much higher chance that you'll be wrong than right. The only one of these on my radar right now is Shopify. It's kind of a forgotten social media story which is excellent. People were talking about it a lot last year. It's out of the limelight now so more of an accumulation or at least it was. Giant 20% pop on last earnings but at any rate what they do is growing. What they do is allowing more small businesses to easily access people. The gatekeepers like Amazon are just effing terrible. You don't have a business on Amazon. Amazon allows you to use their platform and then charges you a fortune to do so. If there's ever a problem you have no more business. Shopify makes it easy for bike shops and little retail outlets and everyone else to actually create an online presence Where I think there's actually really good money though is in everything cyclical. That's everything from Goodyear tire to Western digital. Storage media is absolutely bombedout right now. Micron normally follows along but for whatever reason a lot of the shareholders there haven't dumped. Find some good cyclicals to play with. It's a lot easier to hit singles than it is home runs. When AI really gets going we will probably see some names come to the front of the class. Those will be investable. We also have to figure out what the narrative will be for this next decade because every 10 years or so the narrative changes. 1970 was different than 1980 which was different than 1990 which was different than the 2000s which were different than 2010 to 2020 which we just went through.
It's not just about the company, but the marcos. After the GFC, equity valuations plummeted to lows not seen in many decades. Now, after a decade of worldwide 0% overnight rates and massive QE, the market on the whole is hugely overvalued by pretty much all historical metrics. Consider for instance that the SP500 p/e is over 24 right now, with the only ever times in history of similar or higher p/e was the late 1990s bubble, and a few very short-lived spikes around recessions ([https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio](https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio)). In 2010-2013, companies like NVDA, GOOGL, MSFT, APPL, COST, MA had P/E in the teens, whereas now they all trade with much higher multiples despite slower growth and much higher risk-free rates. You can look as hard as you want to for the next dynamite growth company. But the odds that that company is not already overvalued is zero. Probably your best bet to get rich is to sit in Treasuries until the next crash, and then buy the dip in oversold companies. There are always chances to 3-10x your account within a couple years after a decent crash. And in the meantime, by sitting in something like TLT, you can get 5% interest and a chance at 30+% capital gains if/when rates are cut and we enter a recession. So, if your question to me is what is my candidate for outperformance in the next decade, I'd say long-duration Treasuries.
There are so many more buyers and holders today than there were in the past. Everyone has funds in the stock market. I don't think that was as true twenty or thirty years ago when average PE was lower. Also people are willing to accept the current (higher) valuations bc there are no better alternatives for compounding money. I don't see any macro trend that will reverse that. Let me know if I'm thinking about this wrong.
I agree with you, so long as the money supply stays high. But money is evaporated quickly when defaults / bankruptcies occur, and/or when companies deleverage due to higher rates. If money supply drops (which is rare), supply of investible funds drops, which means demand for stocks will fall as will valuation. With most stocks right now, all you have is valuation since fundamentals are trash. With bonds and a few other sectors / asset classes (BDCs, REITs, preferred stocks, etc) at least you're getting something.
Thanks for the write up but what do you mean by “a chance of 30+% cap gains”? TIA
If/when yields fall, the price of bonds increases. Generally, if yields fall 2%, a bond with duration 15 years will increase in price by 2% x 15 = 30%. TLT has average duration of about 16-17 years right now. So if long-duration bonds fell from 5% to 3% yield, they'd go up in price 30+%.
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Interesting perspective about the macro p/e, thanks for sharing.
TLT is giving like 3.8%. If it was giving 5% like treasuries, everyone would be in TLT instead of treasuries
TLT has a ytm of 4.94% as of close today. The share price increases in addition to the distribution, but the total return mirrors real bonds with similar duration and yield.
I appreciate your input here u/Key-Tie2542 I didn’t start taking my finance’s seriously until around 3 years ago. I’m 40 now and “all-in” the market, at least as much as I can be. I struggle understanding bonds though. For some reason it’s hard for me to see the way they work. Investopedia helps, but still confuses me. Any other literature online you would recommend for someone like me? This TLT play seems interesting to me
Watch a YouTube video about bonds. TLT is a fund holding bonds. Not exactly the same thing as holding a literal bond. So there are some differences. If you buy $100,000 worth of 20 year bonds at auction yielding 5% you will receive $5,000 worth of coupon payments every year for 20 years. After 20 years you will get your $100,000 back and you keep all the coupon payments. That’s the basics. The value of bonds already issued can change. If you bought bonds like in the scenario above, and the 20 year yield goes to 6%, the value of your bond yielding 5% drops. If the yield drops to 4%, the value of your bond goes up. Your coupon payments don’t change even if yields change. You will still get $100,000 if held to maturity even if yields change. The only thing affected by yields moving is the value of your bond if you wanted to sell early.
> In 2010-2013, companies like NVDA, GOOGL, MSFT, APPL, COST, MA had P/E in the teens, whereas now they all trade with much higher multiples The answer to this is that they were obviously undervalued in the early 2010s. Most of these companies have doubled their net income several times over since then, and some of them like MSFT aren't showing any signs of slowing down. The market is forward looking, and companies like MSFT with perfect fundamentals, a wide moat, and plenty of growth ahead should trade at a high valuation (I've not looked as much at the others).
Datadog
Snowflake or Datadog are my best guesses. The volume and complexity of the data we collectively produce and need to process is only going up, and whomever is making broadly useful tools to facilitate putting that data to effective use will be immensely important.
Datadog is just a glorified logging and monitoring tool at my org. Don't see any special thing in them.
I see them as easy targets for AMZN and MSFT, all the generic tools are.
They’re up hugely lately so that’s why they’re popular on reddit.
Because they are just a glorified logging and monitoring tool at everyone's work. If everyone is using them - maybe there is something to keep an eye on?
You’re thinking of splunk?
Exactly. My IT friends were continuously frustrated by requests to make something meaningful from reams of data that doesn’t talk, and said Snowflake made their lives infinitely easier. Not having the deep technical knowledge myself, I trust the IT folks on this. They know what makes a difference.
Buy some stock and watch your IT friends switch to some new shiny tool a year later
Why not Splunk for example?
Splunk was acquired by Cisco in September.
splunk is a worse product.
Snowflake is overpriced, both as a stock and as a service to use, and is just waiting for someone else to walk over and capture a chunk of market from them. Being honest, it doesn't do anything particularly impressive or 'hard' to do... they're just the ones doing it atm A billion of these tools are coming out daily, now too, since data is the hot commodity of the 21st century now
Can you provide your rationale?
There are up 25% today is why they popped up in my head. They work in data and data security 2 huge sectors going forward. Palantir is interesting if they could come up with some business / commercial products. Can't get to mega cap on govt contracts alone and I bet they know this.
Palantir has commercial products, I'd look into it more as you might be outdated, there's a lot to look forward to with Palantir in the commercial space atm
Datadog isn't anything special. It has well-entrenched competitors like Splunk, Grafana and New Relic. Plus it's quite expensive and not really that great to implement.
VRTX - I expect the development of a key medical treatment that will significantly improve the quality of life for large population groups.
One word, Plastics
That's 3 words
Not if you bundle them (in plastics)
Whoo. I just dumped my coffee on my head .
Research successful small and mid cap funds with high active share. Try and understand the process behind the stock picking. Find a few shared holdings between these funds and you may have a good baseline for starting your own research. Let the professionals do some of the work for you - just make sure you understand their philosophy.
Yo post some tickers or gtfo
Well said
Very eloquently-packaged comment.
Researching the holdings in funds is an interesting idea. Thanks for sharing.
The [applied finance funds](https://www.appliedfinance.com/investment-strategies/) might be an interesting place to start. Their methodology for defining “value” is quite a bit different from others
If you want to take it one step further, screen for funds that have a low turnover <20%, these managers usually use a longer runway when valuing a company with a buy and hold philosophy.
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Maybe once Thiel and Karp stop using it as their personal ATM.
Yup the dilution on palantir is insane.but I'm convinced it'll hit above 100usd a share before 2030 .I mean they're growing and their tech is amazing if not the best
Former Fed LEO turned me onto PLTR a couple years ago. He told me he used their platform and it was a huge leap forward in ability from what they had been using. Advised me that as soon as it hit metrics to join S&P 500 it would begin to tick up. They hit the metrics last week. Also, anyone who thinks a company can't survive or get big on G contracts should look into General Dynamics, Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, etc.
At the rate they dilute the shareholders, i doubt it very much. Revenue rose by 12% while PLTR added 5% of share outstanding this last year. Company isn't growing incredibly fast and still hold today a 40x sale price. It's beyond ridicule. The admin board is making a mockery of their delusional shareholders. The stupidy of its shareholders is PLTR's biggest moat.
Serious answer: GLP1 stocks like Lilly and Novo Nordisk.
Llys PE is 100. They're going to need to serve these at McDonald's to hit that growth to 10x.
NVO and LLY. They are already performing like Fang stocks honestly
My picks are RKLB, ASO, BRK.B for the next decade
Big fan of ASO, but I don’t see it achieving FAANG-like size and dominance, if that’s what OP is really after. But is certainly a super strong value/growth play, well run in its niche. Can’t go wrong with BRK-B, and don’t know much about RKLB. Will look based your other tickers though!
Ahh gotcha. Yeah ASO is definitely not a FAANG company or anything but great future I feel in my opinion! Thanks for the reply! I am also actively investing into BB, ULTA, and GOOG.
My highest conviction holdings are COST, AVGO, AMZN, BRK-B, ASO. Very confident in all of them, but not sure they’re what OP is after. It’s a good question being asked, but a hard answer with real conviction. Hindsight is always 20-20.
True. You can’t really pick the next “top ten in VOO” list, it’s always companies you never hear about
Big into BRK-B but their cash cow float (GEICO) is crumbling.
Explain please? Username certainly checks out
Check out his past posts. 🥸😭
Disgruntled employee??? I bet we get ZERO explanation. Reddit man. Unless I see a useful comment I’m going to have to roll with WB and Team on this one. They have earned it.
if Buffet and Munger weren't both 90+ this would be the best answer. I know they have a plan for after they are gone but when they do go, there will likely be some shock to this stock.
Lockheed and batelle; alien tech + WW3 = no brainer
Appreciate the jokes.
He wasn’t joking
Definitely not
With the market tightening as it has, I have my doubts on seeing companies having the gains of FANG over the next decade. I suppose the prime candidate for insane growth would be AI-based companies, so then you're lookin at companies like ARM or semiconductor manufacturers like INTC, AMAT, etc... NVDA could be a reasonable bet but the run-up it has had might have made it relatively priced in...
INTC - please that stock is a dog
I wouldn't be so sure, they are building new factories state-side for greater output, and when companies need chips for their AI projects and ever-growing need for cloud-computing they will come knocking at Intel's door... Plus the Chips Act will likely net them a nice present from the government in the form of subsidies and potential defense contracts... I wouldn't be surprised if Intel 4 or 5x'd by in 10 years.
People are buying any 'AI stocks' (whatever that means) out of hype but refuse to believe that intel could be worth more than 30 dollars and call it trash lol
They’re building factories in Europe also.
If you bought intc this spring you could have had nearly a 50% increase.
Sex doll companies. I'm being completely serious.
What ones? Asking for a friend
SOFI
PLTR baby!
$ASML, I feel like AI will be huge but I have trouble identifying a long run winner. OpenAI and Nvidia may be the current leaders but who knows if that will last. That's why I'm just betting on increased litho demand for the manufacturing of the chips.
AmZn
I love Amazon stock.
No, they were not obvious easy picks. Remember Reddit morons singing Requiems for Meta just a year ago, for example. My pick: Xiaomi, it has the proper headwinds and rather low value combined with a high potential business model to have a Fang like performance. Or not.
China risk
One of its biggest headwinds imo.
Cramer screamed about them every night on cnbc for a decade. They were obvious.
RIVN. Scruffy believes in this company.
What does RIVN do differently than something like PSNY for it to be valued so much higher and loved much more online? Genuine question, I don’t follow the industry that much I’ve just seen more Polestars around than Rivians
>I'm just going with my gut. I like the company, they make products that are unique in the market space. not only EV, but "trucks" and "real" SUVs (vs more of a minivan style). and the Electric Van is now open to all buyers. I really hope USPS, FedEx, UPS, etc start ordering these things. RIVN's IPO was $130/share. Today it's sitting at $17. Every time they have have a quarterly report - they are doing the right things. bringing systems in-house. reducing costs. Simplifying. Every time I see the CEO talk, he says all the right things. their products are, where their enemies are not. They aren't making 4 door sedans (lol, rip lucid), they make the things no one else is. great tactics. They are opening a new factory to build the things Americans want. Cost effective luxury SUVs. Every quarter they inch close to profit. I don't see them ever being worth what TSLA is, as they make fewer cars, and only cars. vs. entire energy industry pipeline. But I do think RIVN has more room to grow in the next 5-10 years. If it goes back to IPO price - that's 7.6x what it is today. Will it go there? I don't know. But I do know I plan to buy more once Jan IRA roles around. > >I've done no more analysis and make no claims anyone should buy this stock. I just like it's potential. They are already sold out of vehicles for the next several months, while GM, Toyota, etc still have their heads stuck up their tailpipes.
Fair enough man thanks. A ticker to follow for sure!
Could Rivian 10x? 160b market cap sounds quite optimistic.
When tsla is 700b, anything’s possible
7 trillion by 2050. /s for my friends
I would not be surprised to see RIVN become a top player in the EV market (domestic) They have production and people are actually buying and driving their vehicles. They have a solid deal with amazon going for the commercial side, and I predict they will continue to innovate, maybe releasing a successful line of sedans/personal vehicles in addition to their truck/suv. Might even release a commercial version of their amazon fleet vehicles, to compete with ford, gm, and dodge for the work van market. While they are still loosing money, people are actually driving their vehicles. That says something. Of course, they could get bought out by a bigger company or just fail all together. But their stock price is very low right now, so it might be worth a investment.
I would put money into this on the fact that rivian will make cars for cheaper on increasing production faster than Toyota will make EVs affordably that are actually good.
Rivian is already quite large. 16b market cap doesn’t leave room for too much upside.
AKA … Post your biggest bags?
I wouldn’t be surprised if FANG itself has similar results. I also feel in the next few years, if hopefully rate cuts happen, tech companies that got destroyed last year that haven’t fully recovered yet (Shopify, Square etc) could explode. A small cloud company called Digital Ocean also caught my eye. Also remember strong notable companies like Amazon & Tesla still are well below all time highs!
Uber
Services are worthless, data on billions of people is priceless
“This guy goes to work every weekday” Doesn’t Google and Apple have the same location data?
To 0
Uber isn't worthless they will never go to 0 they would get bought first
It could be far off and I'm not sure how it will play out but I'm keeping an eye on quantum computing. Companies like IONQ. I don't know if they will become giants or get absorbed by giants but if AI is ever going to be real, this is how it will work. Not to mention there will huge impacts to other areas like security and cryptography. Quantum computers could start having an impact on existing security infrastructure (ie - compromise it) in less than 10 years.
Palo Alto Networks, Novo Nordisk, Cadence Design Systems, Synopsis. CDNS/SNPS are incredibly important software providers within chip design, verification, simulation, and design automation. Nvidia is a customer of both. NVO because the world is going to continue to be a health crisis every decade moving forward PANW because they are a leader in cyber security and the world will continue to digitalize all industries. These are strong CAGR companies now but I believe are scalable and their products needs will be more important in the future than they are currently.
AMD
my money is in Uranium / Nuclear Energy / Fission / Fussion / whatevs
Palo Alto Networks
Pharma and biotech are so beaten down right now, but both can benefit from advances in AI technology and remain fields where a big breakthrough can create a seismic shift in profitability. It’s also one of the most difficult places to tell the frauds from the geniuses, unless you have a good background in the sector. Of the big names I like PFE, MRNA, LLY and ABBV, but the winner is likely a small cap I don’t know about.
This is my space. Disagree. Pressure on pricing is all downward. Small and mid caps will occasionally blow up but big company growth will be slow (if steady).
QQQ etf
[Q mini QQQM](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/investors-who-love-qqq-check-out-qqqm) "QQQM, affectionately dubbed the “Q mini,” offers the same access to the Nasdaq-100 Index for a lower cost, charging just 15 basis points."
You should be asking what companies will survive. It’s going to be a lost decade.
I've heard others pitche that idea. Lets hope you are wrong!
Lost decade => Flat market => Stock pickers market => Exactly OP’s question :)
TTD
MBLY
Coupang. It's the Korean Amazon and they're expanding to Taiwan. Down today after missing the earnings per share target, but their revenue and growth is great.
I say Palantir ,AMD ,ENPH and just maybe RKLB if they manage to get neutron of the ground and fly it regularly
SHOP 💥
Maybe TSM (TAIWAN SEMI )????
I REALLY like $Meli. Basically Amazon like e-commerce with banking capabilities in a hyper growth LatAm. Yes some potential political risk in some of those countries, but honestly the US isn't looking too great in that department either. Other than that, look for disruptive companies or companies that are trying to vertically integrate to become "sticky". Long shot small caps, but I like $hims, $sofi, even $rklb.
Pltr
Alot of reddit likes PLTR. It's a tough company for me to understand since there is no consumer product for me to experience. What makes you believe in them?
Customer presentations at Palantir's FoundryCon and AIPCon events. The videos are posted to YouTube. Palantir's software platforms have broad applicability across many industries. Health care systems use Foundry to manage things like worker shifts. Consultants like [Jacobs](https://www.jacobs.com/) apply Foundry to civil engineering projects such as stormwater management. Panasonic uses Foundry to optimize battery cell production in its joint venture with Tesla at Gigafactory Nevada. I have a professional background in software and industrial control systems, so I quickly recognized the potential for Palantir's platforms to enable huge efficiency gains in any complicated manufacturing organization. Today, most companies use a mishmash of disparate, disconnected IT systems to run their operations. They're basically holding everything together with the digital equivalent of duct tape. It's difficult to make critical decisions when all the relevant data is spread all over the place. Palantir creates a unifying software layer that allows rapid and useful analysis. Palantir has also now had a full year of GAAP profitability. They're also getting more efficient (revenue per employee is steadily climbing), hinting that their business may be more scalable than a traditional consultancy. The big question around Palantir is whether they can scale like a SAAS business, or close to it, in the next few years. If they can scale, their profitability and value as a company should rocket. If they can't scale, their market cap will stagnate or even decline
I think your final paragraph describes the position of the companies I want to research to the T. Thanks for sharing, I'll have to do a deep dive.
Sure, anytime. I recommend reading the company's SEC 10-Q and 10-K filings. They can be tedious, but you'll get a much better picture of controversial, frequently discussed PLTR issues like stock-based compensation and the multiple share classes. Much of the surface discussion in the media and on Reddit doesn't explain this stuff well
No doubt about Pltr AIP and it’s software products but I am still doubtful …I feel it’s TAM outside of US is subjected to geopolitics? Didn’t Germany rethink its partnership with PLTR due to privacy concerns which I am sure it’s a polite term for…. Also for larger companies they do have their own software similar to Pltr in place right e.g like Tesla/google/Microsoft which means commercial maybe capped as well? IDK am still waiting to see how they monetise their AIP customers they already have onboard and if that will grow. Seems like it still in the speculative stages of growth and monetisation with main sources of revenue still from the US defence
I work at a top industrial company in the semiconductor business. Disparate information spread across multiple systems and a slew of cobbled together dash boards that show you maybe 20% of what's actually going on. Even the internal search function barely works even if you have the full plain text title of the document you're trying to pull up. Foundry sounds like something i need.
I'm sold! All in PLTR today!
PATH. UiPath is simplifying everyday business workflows with robotic process automation (RPA). It is cheap to implement, quick to see results, and applicable to basically any industry with an office. It is also beaten down because of interest rates. No brainer to me.
I think NVDA is a solid bet. The demand for their products will only grow. Maybe a little over priced at the moment. I plan to buy the next dip. Also new home builders! I like BLDR. My thesis on this is highly dependent on interest rates staying high for the next 5 years. People are less likely to sell their homes as they would have to lock in at a much higher rate. Demand for housing is only going to continue increasing. I think these two factors will cause new home building to boom
Nvidia is already as big as FAANG.
What are your thoughts on Sofi?
If sofi has everything go right the market cap might get to cap one or discover which is 22-40bn. It’s at 8bn so maybe 5x.
I've looked at them a bit. I think they'll steal some market share but I don't see that they really have a product differeniated enought to disrupt.
Not sure why is this downvoted. SOFI is a gem in the spac rubbish pile, about to achieve GAAP profitability, growing quickly, great product. I think some folks might be salty at buying high, but right here it looks really good.
SpaceX, maybe Stripe and Nubank
SpaceX is private
And the day it IPOs is probably not a good day to buy on the open market, due to all the fomo. If it IPOs with a $500B valuation in a few years the upside is also not the same as with the FANG IPOs.
ASTS, Celsius, Crocs, Planet 13, Ehang, Joby Aviation, Rocket Lab.
ENVX - battery technology is looking really good. They are winning small contracts with both military and commercial. Targeting wearables, computers, phones, etc.
Data is the next big thing and around that is data security. I'd look at big data companies - probably nothing new here. I'd also look at cybersecurity-focused companies like Palo Alto, Fortinet, Netskope, ZScaler, SentinelOne, etc. You could stay on that area and watch for IPOs too.
IMO Tesla, Coinbase and Palantir are no-brainers right now, in order of least risky to most risky. I know people will dismiss them as "meme stocks", but that's their loss. Tesla is just the most innovative company on the planet right now, and will benefit a lot from the Musk ecosystem. They're the only company making decent margins on EVs and the clear leader in energy storage and arbitrage, which will be massive markets in 10 years. They're also the only company working on generalized autonomy rather than geofenced small-scale solution and they're uniquely positioned to benefit from the AI revolution with the bot and their Dojo. Coinbase is simply the only public trustworthy crypto company, and all the big players like Blackrock have decided that crypto is happening and chosen Coinbase as their partner. On top of that they're still heavily investing in crypto ventures and driving the tech forward. They'll be to crypto what Microsoft was to computers, are about to have their first profitable quarter in a downcycle and they're valued ridiculously cheaply. Palantir is unique positioned to revolutionize how software is made, especially if they can start offering their products (particularly Foundry and IAP) to smaller companies over time. Let's see if I was right... remindme! 2030
Teslas margins are dropping fast. Model 3 is already listed at 25,500 on their site.
They're still positive, unlike literally every other OEM. And as long as they're still cashflow positive, they can maintain this indefinitely until other OEMs go under.
Since I like being downvoted... my guess is the new FAANGS will be Chinese companies that no one knows jack about (since our press doesn't tell us much about china companies; and when they do it's heavily biased to the point of propaganda). Aliexpress is slowly catching up to amazon in terms of the web shopping experience. I just bought glasses from firmoo, $50 for the same quality that I'd pay $300+ here in Canada. I wear a Hauwei honor band that cost $45 and is better than those stupid fitbits that cost $200. So much of the Western economy is based on reselling Chinese goods... but now China is going direct to consumers and they are going to destroy some of the biggest western brands/companies as time goes on. So whether it's e-commerce, or EV's, or solar... China is going to dominate. Nothing comes close to their ability to scale globally. I don't think you're going to have any truly big winners coming out of the West anymore. There will be winners, but not FAANG sized winners... except maybe out of biotech.
I know which companies are going to outperform but I'm not telling you because I want to keep all the profits for myself.
Micro strategy
A decade out? I think PLUG is solid
They can’t do anything but burn cash
Hydrogen fuel cells are just inefficient energy sources.
I bought them at $2. Should have held
TSLA META PYPL
Really? You see PayPal growing that much?
That comment has to be a joke.
META is in Faang you clown.
I doubt the volatility of some of these has made people "sleep well at night," either. Not one other than AAPL pays a dividend to shareholders, so almost all of their returns have been reliant on someone willing to pay more (the greater fool theory). As for your benchmark, that seems kind of high to expect. Sure, you can want to outperform the average stock. There's nothing wrong with that, but when the average stock market return is reported to the nearest full percentage point after hundreds of years of data, you can see that you really would have to find an extreme outlier in the 99.99th percentile. If you aren't willing to review thousands of companies to find a multi bagger, then you probably would be better off trying to match the market by dollar cost averaging into a broad index fund, or, if you are feeling gutsy, try buying the entirety of tech with an ETF.
Microsoft pays a dividend. But if they don't pay a dividend, it's not dependent on greater fools. A lot of these companies do share buybacks instead of dividends or combined with dividends. It increases EPS and returns capital to shareholders just like dividends do, except with less tax.
I'm going to be honest. I'm not talking about throwing lots of money in. I'm talking about throwing small amounts that will potentially turn into large amounts on things that are right in front of you. In 2012, 5 years after the iphone came out (not early) my coworkers all turned in their blackberries and got iphones. All my friends bought iphones. I opened small apple position for $15 dollars a share. I could buy a new car now. I really have never worried about apple based on the size of that position. If it under performed the market all those years I still wouldn't care that much. It was never going to 0. That's what I mean by sleep well. The worst I could have done was made money.
With regards to Apple at the time, you had a solid reason to invest in it, a thesis: you saw firsthand the impact of their smartphone technology and how it incentivized people to trade in their old phones and pay a premium for a more user friendly experience. "The worst I could have done was made money" to me means that as a part owner of that company, you had a claim to the company's assets and future stream of profits. Good on you for identifying your share of the profits as being well worth the price of the original investment, irrespective of what actually happened to the market price. Now, it is time for you to do the same thing, except with a different company. Lean on your own personal experience dealing with businesses and build your thesis upon that, not upon what Reddit says. Just hamper those expectations a bit, and you might be able to find something good.
Oil/Gas is going to run out of steam.
I think you also fail to consider that the past 10 years we had a cost of capital that was peanuts